So, years ago, when my wife was pregnant with our first child, we started shopping for a house. Interest rates were low enough for a broadcaster to afford a house (this is historically rare, like Halley’s comet or found money) and we began the process of identifying our first house.
My father had passed over a year earlier, so a friend of mine’s husband took me under his wing and guided me through what can be an overwhelming experience. We found our house about three weeks after starting to look, but the one we chose had issues. The roof was in need of shingles, the wiring to the garage wasn’t code, the slope of the land away from the house poor.
THE ATHLETIC
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New DNB and Murat Ates: Edmonton vs. Winnipeg: Five things the season series taught us about how they match up
- Lowetide: What Kris Russell does well and how the Oilers deploy him
- DNB: A 2nd Hart Trophy is firmly in Connor McDavid’s grasp
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers need to step up down the stretch?
- DNB: Get ready for Ryan McLeod
- Lowetide: A look at the best value contracts on the 2021 Oilers
- Lowetide: Dominik Kahun’s season of struggle with the Oilers has a silver lining
- Lowetide: An early look at ideal Oilers’ free-agent targets for the offseason
- DNB:McDavid’s latest goal shows why he’s in a class of his own
- Lowetide: Why Oilers fans shouldn’t worry about Philip Broberg’s SHL season
- Lowetide:Let’s make a final call on the Oilers’ 2016 draft class
- DNB: Re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Free-agency targets? Oilers mailbag
- DNB: Oilers sign Dylan Holloway to ELC
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers re-sign pending unrestricted free agent Tyson Barrie?
- Lowetide: Five Oilers prospects who deserve NHL tryouts now that the trade deadline has passed
- Lowetide: Are the 2020-21 Oilers better than the 2016-17 team?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition
OILERS AFTER 48 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 19-24-5, 43 points; goal differential -25
- Oilers in 2016-17: 25-15-8, 58 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017-18: 21-24-3, 45 points; goal differential -26
- Oilers in 2018-19: 23-22-3, 49 points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in 2019-20: 25-18-5, 55 points; goal differential -3
- Oilers in 2020-21: 29-17-2, 60 points; goal differential +18
This year’s team is the class of the group by wins, points and goal differential. I don’t know what the playoffs hold, but this is a team easy to believe in compared to its predecessors. Holland and Tippett will have detractors but are correctly ignoring the past and pushing for the future. It’s actually heartening to have a GM who picks up a veteran defenseman at the deadline and then the coach uses him.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Montreal, Ottawa, Ottawa, Calgary (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
- On the road to: Winnipeg (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Expected April record: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual April record: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
When I ran my numbers at the beginning of the month, it looked a little too sunny and I considered backing it off to one fewer win. As it turns out it was another quality match. One more month, and eight more games to go.
THE REST OF THE STORY
So back to the house. It was a 1960 house, and anything over 30 has some things to deal with and that’s a fact. So, I met with my friend and my house inspector (get a house inspector) and they gave me a price that I should counter with as an offer. My realtor didn’t like my friend (or the house inspector) and talked me in to a more generous offer.
At that point, my friend (we’ll call him Fred) said “You’ve got this now, I’m going to let you go.” I was in a bit of shock, he’d been a big help. He basically said that he had been trying to shelter me from the mistakes he made as a first time home owner but had come to realize that people needed to experience it for themselves.
I bought the house, fixed the wiring to the garage, the roof, the slope of the land and put in a new kitchen for my wife. When we sold the place, we got about 15 percent of the investments made by us in the deal.
Sometimes you have to learn all by your lonesome.
SCHEDULE LOSS
When it was explained to me the first time, I didn’t buy it. Then I would look at back to back games as schedule losses too and that’s not necessarily correct either (the flight from Winnipeg to Edmonton isn’t that long).
Finally, I understood. I read and spoke to a few people yesterday who didn’t believe it was a thing but for me last night was a perfect example of a schedule loss.
I think the coach did a couple of things (Smith, Russell) to address it but the die was cast. I don’t have the numbers for you today, wrote the April report card for The Athletic deep into the night (it will be up later today or tomorrow) and there’s some good things in there.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we break down the Oilers-Flames and at 10:20 talk with Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast about Edmonton’s playoff path. At 11, Matt Iwanyk discusses the NFL draft and the Oilers magic number. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Death March 2021 Playoff Prediction:
Apologies in advance for any glitches, we are working to correct them.
DEATH MARCH™ UPDATE
Basic Rules:
1 – how many games will the Oilers win this playoff year?(wins only, losses are ignored)
2 – tiebreaker: combine the goals of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Puljujarvi
note: the site lists “wins” as “points” for now.
HUNTER1909’S DEATH MARCH™ NOW OPEN FOR PLAYOFF ACTION
1 – find the site
2 – figure it out yourself
Note: deadline open for change without official playoff opener yet set for Oilers to play in.
KHL
@khl_eng
·
56s
Nail Yakupov and Avangard have signed a 2-year extension.
https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4ca.svg 7 G, 9 A, 16 PTS, 37 GP
I’m thrilled.
Six losses in a row for the Jets. The Habs are closer to catching the Jets for third place than losing fourth place to the Flames.
Ehlers sure LOOKS like their best player when he’s in there.
By a fair margin too.
I found this stat interesting. Of goalies who have played at least 24 games, Smith is 4th in winning percentage:
Player-GGP-SPct-WIN PCT
Watched the Avs. Reminded me of a Tippett coached team is all.
Of course that’s a recipe for NHL success.
Playoffs are going to rock for:
Avs/Vegas
Oilers/Leafs
Bolts/Panthers/Oil-Killing Whalers
Washington/Pittsburgh/Boston/Jordan Eberle’s Islanders
The rest are only there to make up the numbers.
This is my take, anyway.
PS: If you ever want to win a big game, the team with the best players is usually the one that wins. All by himself, Connor McDavid is like having the best players.
Justin Bourne
@jtbourne
·
7m
I think Cale Makar just had a six shot attempt SHIFT. Five at least.
Rantanen is back…1G 2A as the Avs beat SJS 3-0.
You’re kidding
Against the Sharts?
Christian Dvorak won faceoffs on consecutive shifts.
Evan Bouchard is not playing in the NHL.
It’s Official!!
the troll gave up on Canucks and Flames
Jets lead Montreal 1-0 after one.
A huge game for the Flames.
Now 2-0 Jets early in the second.
Montreal ties it up but Jets score again.
3-2 late in the second.
3-3.
A wild one.
4-3 Montreal on the PP with 5 minutes left.
Habs win 5-3.
Flames now 6 points out with equal games remaining.
Your kiss of death is getting more potent. Already your Calgary predictions are aging poorly.
I hope you don’t mind but I just sent Hrudey, Button and Cassie a boo-hoo card.
Hey that was safe bet for anyone who doesn’t pay up.
You’re not very good at this
Haha you sound like Lames fans still think they gonna make it lmao
And the Mindless Moron Mob is out in full force.
Predictable but sad.
This mindless moron called it that the Flames impressive D corp wasn’t, before the season started
And that they have no elite players and are bland
I will also call that the Avs Uber skilled D Corp may not be the bomb when the playoff bomb drops
Destroy the easy and get pounded by the not when the Gary’s come a callin for their masters
One says “Mindless Mob” but, of course, the reality is a group of Oilers fans that are responding to the 5th consecutive anti-Oiler standings projection from an Oiler-hater based on schedule turning out to be 100% wrong.
I look forward to the Jets in 4 projection.
if somebody is predictable, it’s you buddy… talk bs and then act offended lol
Wtf is wrong with you?
A stain on Lowetide’s blog.
Yep it’s time to ‘Alomar’ HH
nothing, he’s just being himself 🙂
I think the Oilers’ compete level was there to hustle to score or defend, particularly pushing in the third to tie it up. What was lacking was the team engaging as much in the physical aspect of the game except for Kulikov. The Flames outhit the Oilers 35-19 and that has not been the Oilers m.o. for most of the season, as they are third in the league in hits per 60 with 26 and Calgary is 19th with 21 and it is only up to 23 per game under Sutter. They have had their share of lower hitting games, but when the other team is physical the Oiler have generally given back. That’s probably the hardest facet of the game to sustain when your team energy is low.
I really enjoy your posts! They are well thought out and well presented. Could this not be that the game was of more importance to the Flames than to the Oilers. There is also the three games in four nights plus travel. The officiating also set the tone early with the tackle of McDavid that went uncalled. I am not a conspiracy advocate but the more I remove myself from the absorbed fan to a more casual observer the more aware I am of certain commercially beneficial calls by the officials. I don’t like being a dupe but I am having serious doubts about the credibility of the league!
Thanks. Yeah the 3 in 4, back to back, time zone change, and a couple of flights can add up to that lower energy level. Those games are winnable, but it is harder. Even though Tippett mentioned every opponent is desperate, for Calgary it is close to an elimination game mentality for every game for them. Do or die is a different level of desperation.
I come here for hockey, but get much more. Thanks LT
I come here for much more…and the hockey is good too. Thanks LT
I’ve been speculating about Konovalov signing shortly after the calendar turns to May:
Mikhail Zislis
@MikhailZislis
· 14m
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 22-year old goalie Ilya Konovalov decided to pursue his career in North America. Expect him to sign contract with Edmonton Oilers in a few days. He was drafted 85-th overall in 2019 NHL draft #LetsGoOilers #nhl #khl @SportsnetSpec
So who plays in Bakersfield next year between Konovalov, Skinner, and Rodrigue. Seems like Rodrigue would likely get some time in the ECHL assuming things go back to normalish.
That’s great news! Really hope he grows 4 inches over the summer too. I haven’t seen him play a single game but can’t wait for his arrival due to the high praise from you.
Pretty crazy we currently have the lowest GA in the North right now though. Smith may be having the best season of his long career.
On both quick polls, the majority was for letting UFAs walk (or hope to sign in the UFA period like Thorton or Stone).
Quick Poll
(assuming 97, Drai, JP, Yams plus Nurse & Bear protected)
+ Protect Nuge and another 2 forwards (7-3-1)
– Protect two of Larsson, Jones, Klef, and Barrie (4-4-1)
Markstrom was the best player on the ice last night.
Oilers struggled, seemed like the mental fatigue was more evident than the physical and showed up in many many turnovers and poor puck management.
Drai has one of his worst games of the year and McDavid was just meh.
At the same time, even with the above, the Oilers were able to create a number of 5-bell chances – they missed on some glorious chances and Markstrom made 4-5 high end saves.
The Oilers almost one that game despite being far far far from their best.
You can’t win them all, and considering it was a 3 in 4, back half of a back-to-back, not bad at all. Many chances to tie the game at 2 before it went 3-1.
It is much more frustrating when they get their asses completely whooped with few chances created (i.e. the Leafs series).
I suspect we are drawing closer to DYN going super nova. Lots of great little give-and-go type plays that are not yet resulting in points.
Tip on Oilers Now (just now):
Bob asked him about Kulkiv and, after giving that assessment, Tip mentioned there are some big structural difference between the Oilers and Devils that he is trying to grab on to. He met and spoke with Playfair for an hour today. I had mentioned this a couple of times over the last few days as Kulkiov was very express on how different the systems were when he spoke to Gregor last week.
Is there a chance Bouchard will play? Yup, there’s a chance.
With the Kraken having redeemed their option to vault past most clubs we’re less than 3 months from the expansion draft. One thing that unfolded over this season is that JP needs to be protected. (Wonderful to have that problem)
Quick poll
IF they go 4-4
(based on whatever you think Nuge is willing to sign for)
+ Sign UFA Nuge and Expose RFA Yams
– Protect Yams and see what happens with Nuge
Quick poll
IF they go 7-3
(based on whatever you think Larsson and Barrie are willing to sign for)
+ Sign UFA Larsson or Barrie and expose one of Klef or Bear
– Protect Klef and Bear and see what happens with Larsson and Barrie
Honestly, I would consider protecting Bear, Jones, and Nurse in a 7-3 situation.
I doubt the Kraken take Klef with the injury concerns.
Make a deal with Larsson to sign after the draft.
One player….Mark Stone in Calgary, every other unprotected UFA either signed with another team or never got another NHL contract
I don’t recall how many unprotected UFAs Vegas landed after the expansion draft, but with the flat cap, Kraken can add to their draft haul.
–
And at massively discounted prices.
I also wonder if they will take a run at Jack Eichel once they have the pieces required to swing a deal with the Sabres.
And who cares if they do. Team is so much more than one individual.
San Jose didn’t protect their captain for the Vegas draft. They likely had a handshake deal with Jumbo Joe, however.
Good catch, not sure how I missed that one…perhaps I missed others.
You have a plethora of left D so why in the world would you protect Jones. He has value! He has not yet proven he is a top four D. You have a number of bigger better young left shot D in the system.
Klef won’t be protected or selected…too much risk….50% chance he never comes back to the NHL and if he does return, what are the odds he regains his form? Why would they risk taking on $4.17M with those odds?
Because a 4M+ LTIR contract (pay br the insurance company) is great for a budget team to get to salary floor?
They can spend that money on players who will actually contribute…no need for LTIR.
You have to remember the Kraken ownership group has massive amounts of cash to spend if they so choose.
Here are profiles of only the two majority partners.
https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/richest-billionaires/david-bonderman-net-worth/
https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/producers/jerry-bruckheimer-net-worth/
And the minority owners aren’t chopped liver either.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/hockey/minority-ownership-partners-announced-for-the-nhl-seattle-initiative-includes-sounders-owner-adrian-hanauer/
They can flip e LTIR contact to a budget team. The 4M real world money may fetch a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick to one of those owners that are hurting for money due to COVID.
I’m not so sure that teams needing to make deals to get to the cap floor is a real thing – I mean there are not teams anywhere near the cap floor and I belive that’s generally the case.
Yes, some teams may want to make trades to send out real dollars but that’s not the situation with taking on an LTIR contract.
The Kraken won’t need futures for awhile.
For the most part, they’ll be drafting futures from other teams that can’t protect them.
Then fill out the roster with UFAs at bargain prices.
For example, they are likely to get Jones or Yamamoto from the Oilers so why waste a pick on an LTIR player and only get a lottery ticket in a crapshoot draft for their trouble?
The wealth of the owners is a non starter and a stupid argument. They still deal with the same cap requirements. Their goal is the greatest value for money spent to build the foundation for a competitive NHL franchise.
Money talks even in a cap world.
Vegas spent right to the cap out of the chute.
Many owners are in tough financial straights after the pandemic.
Seattle’s ownership will NEVER have that problem.
Bruckheimer likely makes more in a month from movie and TV residuals than most owners make in a year.
Bruckheimer’s net worth is listed at apx $1B.
David Thompson’s is listed at close to $40B.
That’s nice.
Difference is Seattle doesn’t have any bad contracts weighing down the cap.
The Kraken and Jets won’t be competing for UFAs so your point is absolutely pointless.
My point shows how pointless your “point was” – making Bruckheimer out to be one of the uber-wealthy among the NHL ownership group – he’s not even close
He’s a junior partner dimwit.
Please refrain from name-calling – i acknowledge your defense mechanism but this community host requires respect and civility.
This does not apply to an expansion franchise. They could consider it a reasonable gamble. The expansion franchise does not have the same financial restraints.
Where do you get 50%? Sorry, not trying to be adversarial but i think that’s the percentage you’ve chosen. Maybe its right, maybe its less, maybe its more – none of us known.
What we know is that Kelf took his time making the decision and had the help of the best experts in the world to, not only make the decision (and formulate it off the best “data” possible) but to also perform the procedure.
Klef made the decision, for surgery, based off of the best information possible, and had the surgery with the intent of continuing an NHL hockey career. From accounts, the surgery was “very successful”.
He’s now in a process of rehabbing and training.
Maybe he doesn’t ever play hockey again at the professional level but the player is doing what he can to ensure that’s not the case and, at this point, I think the trend is positive – based on the info we have.
Yes I chose an arbitrary 50%, obviously we don’t know the real odds.
In fact we don’t know that Klef made his decision based on giving him the best odds to continue his career. I think it’s more reasonable to assume he chose the surgeon/surgery that gives him the best quality of life for the next 50 years.
Again, you don’t know that “he’s doing what he can to ensure” the continuation of his career.
We know next to nothing in this situation, his shoulder is fucked, has been for a decade, his career is in jeopardy, he would like to come back to the NHL and he’s concerned about life after hockey. I doubt Seattle has any further info, thus, the risk is too great and he doesn’t get protected or selected in the expansion draft.
Yes, we know that, because Klefbom said it – he said his goal is to return to the NHL and the surgery was part of that process.
Perhaps his penultimate goal…..if Klef was presented with a hypothetical ultimatum between another 3 years in the show, or 50 years of pain free, painkiller free living…I think everyone on this blog knows what his choice is…an nobody would begrudge him for it.
Of course, we know that isn’t the case.
Simple answer is you don’t go four and four.
That’s the let Nuge go and he’s yours if he flies back option. The follow-up 7-3 vs 4-4 poll is about dead even.
Saw Neal real good last night, a welcome change for me. Liked McLeod and Kahun together in a small sample size. Officially promoted Mike Smith from Sean Micheals to Dwayne Roloson at the end of the 2nd period. Also really impressed by the compete and belief demonstrated by the lads last night – down by 2 inside of the final minute they were still playing like they believed they would win and were willing to suffer to do so. Takes real strength of will to keep striving when your body wants to collapse. Lots of positives to build off of last night. For me, this year’s Oilers have earned plenty of faith and respect.
Like many, I agree that Neal’s game had many positive signs. Neal’s play most this season hasn’t hurt the Oilers since he has been even at 5 on 5, but for the most part he has been a non-factor, where you wouldn’t even notice he was on the ice. That is partially shown in his shots per game at less than 2 for the first time in his career, some that can be attributed to lower ice time but shooting is his calling card. Last night he was making things happen in a good way with 4 shots and a number of other plays. He a little more jump in his step. And he impressed me with his hand eye coordination knocking down pucks. He hasn’t lost that touch. Hopefully, that is a sign of things to come. He did after all score a bunch of goals last season before injuries set him back, and he was not an underachiever in the playoffs last year at all compared to most on the team. Not counting on it, but that would be a nice late season surprise.
It’s to bad Hollaway got hurt we sure could use some fresh meat with size in the top 6.
I anticipate, when he starts his NHL career, its likely at 3LW – I would anticipate that is sometime in 2022.
Caufield is playing and Hollaway is much more NHL ready in my opinion. If we can get a hound dog top 6 winger winger on his first year of ELC I say giddy up. He won’t be the first 20 year-old winger nor the last to make the NHL as a winger at that age. You have him pegged for a year in the minors I don’t the time to win is now. In the off-season when Holland gets a Stanley cup worthy goaltender using the money he’s saved on Holloway’s contract we will be really close.
Caufield is 10 months older and played two full seasons of college hockey post draft. What makes you say that Holloway is much more NHL ready? Did you watch much Wisconsin this season?
I did watch a lot of Wisconsin this year, almost every of their games (when Holloway was not away at the World Juniors) and I don’t disagree that he has a mature skill-set and he will arrive faster than originally thought on draft day.
At the same time, the jump from amateur to the pro hockey is massive and I know how our GM thinks about developing prospects. Some time in the AHL to learn how to be a pro to get used to playing against men and the speed and skill is the likely path in my opinion.
That doesn’t mean he spends the entire season in the AHL.
Also, playing in the NHL and playing top line LW against the best players in the world are different scearnios.
I just don’t think its likely to project Holloway as 1LW in October 2021.
I remember when Nazem Kadri was brand new and Leafs media were talking him up. I was thinking, “they’re sabotaging this player by making him sound like he’s Messier Lite before he’s had a chance to show anything.”
I’ve been concerned that this same thing is happening with Holloway. He’s a late 1st round pick from college. Early signs are encouraging, but narratives matter in sports. If we expect another Jordan Eberle and he turns out to be Andrew Cogliano, do we trade him for a 2nd round pick again? If we had drafted Cogs expecting a good third liner, would we have traded him for a 2nd round pick?
We’d also be expecting Holloway to arrive a year earlier than Eberle or Cogliano did.
No! Stop it! We watched prospects get rushed and some ruined for over a decade! That whole time I was jealous of the “Detroit model” of prospect development. Now we have the luxury of watching the architect himself develop our own.
How refreshing was it to see Mcleod play his first NHL game this past week? He was confident, he was physically developed, his Junior habits had been purged, and he was called up on merit not pedigree. He was dominating the AHL and was over ripe.
Ken Holland is like an old Italian vintner, he sees all his competitors harvesting their grapes, he sees the clouds forming in the forecast, but he remains steadfast, leaves his grapes on the vine, lets the rainstorm pass because he knows another week of sun will follow and his grapes will develop more sugar and purge more acidity…and year after year, Ken Holland brings excellent wine to the farmer’s market.
Dylan Larkin says hello if Holloway is ready he’s ready enough with the hobbits the money saved on him can be used on a goaltender. I can list probably a hundred 20 year-old forwards who played in the NHL and weren’t ruined. The window to win a cup is now while Leon and Connor are healthy. Believe it or not this might not always be the case especially the way other teams or running both of them with no retribution from the soft Oilers.
Liked the article today. I’m starting to think of “schedule loss” as being a verbal shorthand for “yes they might win this game, but flesh and blood can only do so much and the deck is stacked against them so maybe we should keep our expectations low.”
It’s a pretty good bet that the Flames make the playoffs and it’s because of the Vancouver Covid outbreak and scheduled losses for the Canucks.
Starting tomorrow, in Toronto, the Canucks play 13 games in 19 days with 4 back to backs and they play 3 games in 4 days 3 times with a travel day included on all 3 of those occasions.
Calgary meanwhile has a very generous schedule with zero back to backs until the final game of the season against, you guessed it, the Canucks.
Those final 4 Calgary/Vancouver tilts are all scheduled losses for the Canucks.
Montreal has 3 games against Toronto, 2 against the Oilers, 2 against Ottawa 1 tonight against Winnipeg and , the way they’re playing, I don’t like their chances in any of them
If you squint hard enough, there’s actually a compliment directed at the Oilers embedded in this post.
If Montreal even plays .500 (they are 4-6 in their last 10) Calgary SHOULD catch them.
Those final 4 games against the Canucks are basically free spaces on the bingo card against an exhausted team.
It’s hard to beat a team 4 games in a row. I would take that bet all day everyday including Sundays.
Normally I would agree with you but these ain’t normal times.
The Canucks April schedule coming off a widespread Covid outbreak is the toughest in NHL history.
If you watch them play now, you can see the lack of energy on every shift and now they are inserting their kids into the lineup just to keep going.
Last night Kole Lind started on the third line but by half way through he was bumped up to the top six which is pretty tough on a player making his NHL debut.
Looks like the Canucks #1 D man Quinn Hughes will win the Canucks green jacket. Your so called expertise is like you without value. You are much bluster with no substance you may lose your trolling card.
The flamesnation had a playoff race article that figures out the flames tragic number is 5.5. Meaning any combination of flames L or Canadiens W adding to 5.5 will eliminate the flames.
With the 8 remaining Canadiens games, 0.500 would be 4 W, meaning the 2 Ls would doom the Flames.
Not that anyone in an Oilers board should care, anyway. Unless the Oil can overtake the Leafs and get a BoA going…
How did your so called free spaces re the Senators work out. Maybe they should just cancel the balance of the Canuck games and award the points to the applicable teams.
Free spaces on the bingo card…”You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” – Inigo Montoya
Oilers are a lock baby! Didn’t even enter into troll math!
For anyone who pays their bets, Flames in playoffs is still a high-risk high reward bet.
[SBD Apr 29]: The Flames are still trying to catch the Canadiens in the race for the final playoff spot in the North Division. The Flames’ average odds have shortened from +850 to +550, while the Canadiens’ odds have lengthened from -1400 to -750.
Where does this prediction based off of schedule take in to account the fact that, well, the flames suck?
I predict that, just like the other 6 rubber road schedule based predictions, this one ends up flat out wrong.
Flames 6-4-0 last 10 (suck)
Oilers 6-3-1 last 10 (world beaters)
April record Calgary 2-1 (Flames outscored Oilers 10-4)
Yes, Calgary sucks.
I present NHL standings.
I note the circumstances around the last two games they played and note the prior beatings the Oilers put on for fun.
I present a coaching change that occurred after those early season games.
But that would likely be too subtle for your intellect.
Is this another one of your “memes”?
Wild, wild argument.
Since the flames hired Sutter:
Oilers have a points percentage of .667 – 7th in the NHL
Flames have a winning percentage of .481 – 22nd in the NHL
I guess that is a pretty big bump on the .478 before Sutter
A coaching change, which in its entirety has seen the team earn points in the standings at a .460 clip since he took over, compared to the .500 rate they earned points at under Ward. Such an improvement. Why did they wait so long for the change.
If Calgary catches Montreal, it won’t be because of how good they are or any coaching genius on the part of Sutter, it will only be because of Montreal’s monumental collapse. It’s ironic to think that if Calgary does beat the odds, they can probably thank Chaisson for his accidental bump on Price (and whatever else must have contributed to his concussion, because if that bump did it by itself, Price now has a glass jaw).
I say it was the howitzer by I believe Leon that hit him right between the eyes.
You must be a charter member of idiot’s are us! You really need to get back to your bridge.
How did MTL do against WIN tonight?
I mean, I know, MTL’s chances were so slim given the way they were playing.
Somehow WIN’s 5-game losing streak doesn’t factor to in to how teams are playing….
Calgary is such a shyte team that plays to injure guys. It’s gross but probably part of the mgmt culture and why guys want out of there. Bringing Sutter back is just doubling down on the cancer. They will be bad until that changes, and in the NHL, you might have to wait a long while.
Really, really disappointed with Tip playing Leon over 28 minutes last night in the 2nd half of a B2B that is a meaningless game. What the F is he thinking? You could tell that Leon was out of gas after his first couple of shift and then you play him half the game?? That is just negligent. Even Conner scaled it back after the unpunished Nesterov cross-check.
I appreciate Tip and what he’s done but I think we might need a different coach to take us over the top. Is Jay W in the Bake the guy? Maybe.
Maybe Jay Woodcroft is better than Dave Tippett at coaching an NHL team….and maybe if my grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike.
Sure Leon’s deployment was excessive but we had a chance to step on the necks of our biggest rival and crush their playoff dreams…would you rather he rolled over and died?
I don’t agree that buying one’s first house is a schedule loss. Where are the numbers to back up this claim?
Perhaps the second house is the schedule loss, or maybe the “cottage” instead. Can anyone pull those numbers?
In my case my first house was a broken down triplex built in 1909 in central Ottawa. The home inspector wrote a thousand page tomb on the most obvious disasters awaiting me and spent a lot of time telling me that a hundred disasters might have been missed. My sister called from Edmonton and said “GammaC: Don’t do it, you’re a rocket scientist, damnit, not a home repair expert”. The price was $209K, with a steady revenue stream. I bought it.
I spent nine years fixing it up. The electrical code had apparently been considered a work of fantasy, only good for amusement. Soldering copper pipes while the water was shut off and tenants were yelling at me became a kind of hobby. I still remember the complaint “You said the water would be shut off, but now the toilet won’t flush!”.
A few years later I bought a neighbor’s house that had been built in 1905, personally inspected only, and sold the triplex for over $500K. Both places are probably worth a million today. Schedule loss my ass, I just rode the market!
Now, my cottage… that’s probably a schedule loss…
Fun story. I’ve done well (in a limited way) in real estate too over the past 20 years.
Loving the real estate stories.
I came across this interesting analysis the other day. Timely as we were getting the urge to nest and buy a cottage in the middle of this pandemic.
https://themoneydoc.ca/money-pitfalls-buying-a-vacation-property/
NEW for The Athletic: Oilers April report card — A strong month led by exceptional performances
https://theathletic.com/2552914/2021/04/30/lowetide-oilers-april-report-card-a-strong-month-led-by-exceptional-performances/
They had enough chances to score and didn’t finish. The loss was in the detail. They should beat that Calgary team more than they have this year.
The changes made the defence group weaker and didn’t help the forwards. That wasn’t enough to avoid the chance to win, but did make it harder. I’m not sure why Tippett hasn’t used his extra forwards in a rotation during the year. It makes a lot of sense.
Happy Kraken Day!
https://theathletic.com/2552956/2021/04/30/with-the-kraken-now-an-official-nhl-team-whats-next-plans-for-the-expansion-draft/?source=user_shared_article
I’m surprised, there doesn’t seem to be any mention of a Nuge signing in that article.
But much mention of the Kraken weaponizing their cap space.
Its going to be wild.
Im also curious how the LAK proceed since they will have almost $14 million in cap space after trading Carter.
They have already inserted Quinton Byfield into the lineup with more blue chippers to come.
I wonder if they will accelerate their rise up the standings or remain patient for another season after harvesting another high draft pick.
Tmac will make sure LA is stapled to the bottom of the standings.
I hope you’re right…but TMac’s resume isn’t too shabby.
In 13 seasons as head coach he’s got 7 playoff appearances, 75 playoff games with a 0.493 winning percentage…3 division titles….1 president’s trophy….
I’m not defending Tmac, I don’t want him anywhere near my team….but your assertion that any team under his guise is guaranteed to fail?…I don’t buy it.
I believe they’re trying to recruit his horse first
Seattle is playing the long game
“I believe they’re trying to recruit his horse first
Seattle is playing the long game”
post of the week!!!
Horses…he has more than one.
It’s time again for the segment nobody wants but refuses to go away after all these years (kind of like me)… the (used-to-be-weekly-but-now-whenever-I-feel-like-it) Yak.
My son is champion!!! Technically speaking, that is, as Avangard Omsk won the Gagarin cup earlier this week. I am very proud of son and team.
Unfortunately my son actually got Covid in late January and it clobbered him. According to (sketchy, unreliable) reports out of Russia, the complications were so severe that he is contemplating retirement. Although he’s currently covid-free, he’s allegedly one of the unlucky folks who is suffering from what doctors are calling ‘long Covid’, of which the complete picture and the rehabilitation timeline is still very much a mystery. (As an aside, my sister-in-law is a physiatrist and is involved in some pretty incredible research into rehab and recovery from this very issue through the hospital she works at. She’s brilliant, but I digress…)
Yak = Champion, but what a year for the poor kid, being traded twice and then this. Seeing photos of him with the cup and celebrating with his teammates was heartwarming, but the fact that he couldn’t be on the ice with them or contribute to the team is heartbreaking.
Belov Bonus: 37GP with SKA, scoring 2-6-8, scoreless in 7 playoff games
And my other brother Anton (Lander): 53GP with Lokomotiv (alongside Oiler prospect Konovalov and former Oiler Magnus Pajjarvi), scoring 14-18-32, also held scoreless in 7 playoff games.
End transmission
Understanding words and phrases…
I thought “physiatrist” was a spelling error. Apparently not.
Who knew?
привет от Kootenays, Comrade.So, чтобы прочитать ваш доклад о Як.Такая странная вещь. Некоторые из ваших читателей будут отрицать существование вируса, несмотря на доказательства.Popsicle ног было бы хорошее имя для Як!Спасибо также за обновления на других ваших детей. Позаботься о себе.
Weekly Yak addendum – covid rumours were true, retirement rumours not so much. My son has signed a 2 year extension to remain with Avangard. Our house is happy again.
Hard to believe there are only 8 games left in the season. Weird.
I’m going to be curious to see how Tippett deploys the roster in the coming weeks to give some possible rest to some players, some playing time to others, etc.. Playoffs are going to be a grind after all.
It was tough watching the Flames take runs at all of our players and no response or answer to any of them. Without JJ and Kassian in the lineup, we are not a tough team. Archie plays hard but he, Neal, Chaisson or any of our D-men(nurse is too valuable on the ice to be running around settling scores) don’t or won’t pick up for the others on the team. Turtle is going to hurt someone, as he is always targeting players skating behind the net and using it to blindside players. I hope we can find some FA this offseason that can play but step up. And I don’t mean you need to fight every hit, but turtle runs KRusty and no one even looked at him for it.
Maybe the scheduled loss was in play but i thought they looked weak in comparison last night. It hasn’t always been like that this year but a couple scrums and face washes, or something of a response would have been nice to see. Not a lot of engagement in my opinion last night.
Did turtle really run Krusty? I thought it was a good hit.
he hit him in the numbers and got a boarding penalty…but he is taking runs at people every time they go behind the net, similar to how he hit Kassian a bunch of times last year, it’s a predatory hit every time.
Oilers need to learn to run some interference on him to limit the impact of his flying ass check behind the net…or someone needs to butt-end him in his pooper.
Just imagining him skating back to his bench with a stick up his butt… I’d like to see that. Couldn’t happen to a nicer fellow.
Just happy to get out without injury. The boys will have more jump the next game.
I wish Ken would recruit a WWE wrestler or better an MMA fighter for lames matches, call him TBone. Turtle pulls anything, throw TBone over the boards and consider it a penalty well spent.
Russell left the game and didn’t return after he took that hit.
I know some (many) will posit that is a positive but they may not have survived without injury – won’t know on Russell until tomorrow.
Jesse also got whacked on the elbow and was feeling the effects.
I don’t know, it kind of looked like Nurse took care of Tkachuk by making his foot explode with a slapshot. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
He’s been drama queening every chance he gets. He needs attention just like his Dad and Brother the family is filled with ham&eggers
Why play Drai 59 minutes a night at this point
I would guess that it was because a)the game was still winnable, and b)Tippet knows the fanbase really values beating Calgary.
I doubt Tipp really cares if the fan base really really wants the Oilers to beat the Flames.
Only caught the start of the game but Calgary were desperate.
Combine the Flames(desperate+terrified) with an exhausted and fed up Oilers and its not hard to understand that a big fat “L” is forthcoming.
The degree of difference between most teams are small, any advantage does help. The odds can be seen afterwards from stats that back to back or 3 in 4 does not work in favor against a team that is resting and waiting.
Schedule makers task is difficult especially this year
I still don’t know if a “scheduled loss” is something that registers as a result of looking at the data (I.e. you can tell this will likely be a loss because of X factors) or something that registers with the club (I.e. something akin to load management.) LT mentions Tip did some things to counteract, but alas. Is this to suggest that orgs/lockerooms look ahead at certain games and think, “By and large, that will likely be a loss. Let’s see what we can do, but meh, better to just not get any injuries.” Or is this the POV of journos/fans only? I can’t imagine many players would openly admit that they enter a game thinking this, but also I just don’t think I fully grasp this concept.
My opinion is that they are a real thing. What I see them as is that it’s just not a game to get too upset about losing. Evaluating the team’s performance in those games is kinda pointless, as it’s likely not too indicative of where their game truly is at. It’s not OK to just mail it in in those games, but don’t take too much from them as far as what to fix. And any points obtained from them are kinda gravy.
I don’t think the team felt it was a scheduled loss. If not for Calgary’s tender, Oilers would have won going away.
Whats the math on a schedule loss with a rested No 1 goalie.
I think giving Koskinen the game last night so Smith could get the game tonight was very good tandem management. Nobody will blame Smith for the loss last night, pretty sure the “Leako Lost-it-in” narrative would be pretty loud if Koskie had lost lass night. JMO
Smith played good my point being if the No1 goalie on any team is rested for the 3rd game in 4 nights it’s not a gimme game. This is where good goalies steal games.
If the issue was fatigue, why was Tippet playing Drai over 28 min? Mcdavid over 23 min? Shouldn’t he use a 3rd game in 4 nights to rest the stars a little and use our depth? Pulju, Kahun, Mcleod, Archibald only got around 11 min. You could tell Drai was tired. So many unforced errors and wayward passes. Barrie was also full value for his errors. It would have been a good time to give him a rest and play Bouchard.
Who’s this Bouchard fella that Holland didn’t draft and why does it piss me off when his name is mentioned!
Sit Barrie after we was the first star against Winnipeg?
I think Tip is talking about managing energy levels, activating quicker recovery, etc. – stuff like that. He talked particularly about post-game nutrition after the Winnipeg game, when the team was coming to the rink yesterday, etc.
“Scheduled Loss” or not – playing the 3rd game in 4 night with material travel the night before against a team that hasn’t played in 3 days – that is a factor.
The Century Billiards North Division standings April 30th using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
TOR +19
EDM+12
WPG +8
MTL + 3
CGY -2
VAN -3
OTT -8
Ahh Century Billiards, a few lessons learnt there.
“Don’t gamble with someone who’s first name is a State” was a good one to learn.
Won a guy’s car there going double or nothing.
Didnt have the heart to take it though.
Especially when you don’t pay your own gambling debts.
What really happened:
HH lost his car in a bet and drove it to Vancouver.
if he lost it to an Oiler it would explain a lot.
weird but true story – I briefly dated a woman named Missouri while I was living in Tennessee
You just reminded me of the Michael Franks tune Popsicle Toes.
Give it a listen.
This might be the best music recommendation I’ve gotten all week, maybe the entire month of April. Silky smooth, loving the Fender Rhodes/vibraphone combo. Thanks!
Seems like every city had/has a Century Billiards…and I’m sure all of them saw lots of money changing hands every night.
EDM Goal Share after 48 games (29-17-2)
Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29 (28-28)-50%
29 w/o 97 (22-16)-58%
97 & 29 On (28-12)-70%
Turris (7-17)-29%
Other (18-26)-41%
Net EV +4
Special Teams:42-29
Net ST +13
Empty Net:9-2
Net EN +7
SO/PS 0-0
Net SO/PS 0
Net Goal Diff +24
Can’t win them all. A few more lessons last night about playoff hockey.
Yup, can’t win them all. Onwards and upwards, be ready for Saturday HNIC.