2020-21 Game 49: Flames at Oilers

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have eight more games remaining on the schedule and at some point will begin resting veterans for a game or more. I doubt it will be tonight, as the Calgary Flames are the opponent. The Oilers are 5-4-0 against the southern Alberta team and there’s a small chance they could meet in the postseason. Vancouver awaits. Now is not the time to pull punches.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS AT 49 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 19-25-5, 43 points; goal differential -26
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 26-15-8, 60 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 22-24-3, 47 points; goal differential -26
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 23-23-3, 49 points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 26-18-5, 57 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 29-17-2, 60 points; goal differential +18

The 2017 team and this year’s model are close in record and the McDavid-Talbot crew were finding the range in outscoring and catching up in a quick hurry. Tippett got a fine record out of a team that was basically even in goal differential last season.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MAY

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Expected May record: 4-2-2, 10 points in 8 games
  • Actual May record: 0-0-0, 0 points in 0 games

If my prediction comes true, Edmonton would finish 33-19-4, 70 points in 56 games. I picked them for second place before the season and that’s where they’ll land. My predictions for ‘reasonable expectations‘ are going to be close in some areas and not so much in others.

POSSIBLE LINEUP

This is five on five points-60 for forwards, Corsi five on five for defensemen and save percentage for the goalies. In the Thursday night Calgary game coach Tippett shuffled the lines, so we could see a different look tonight.

OILERS GAME 1 2017 PLAYOFF PAIRINGS AND GOALIE

  • Nurse-Gryba: 9:34 together, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, Nurse TK, Gryba took a penalty.
  • Klefbom-Larsson: 9:04 together, 3-3 shots, Klefbom scored, Larsson drew a penalty.
  • Sekera-Russell: 8:24 together, 5-8 shots, Sekera 3 giveaways, Russell 1/1 gv/tk.
  • Cam Talbot: Stopped 41 of 44 (.932) in the loss.

These are the numbers and lines/pairings for the first 2017 playoff game against the San Jose Sharks. Question: Do you like the current lineup more? Here’s an estimate of what the pairings could look like opening night playoffs 2021:

  • Darnell Nurse-Tyson Barrie
  • Dmitry Kulikov-Adam Larsson
  • Caleb Jones-Ethan Bear
  • Mike Smith

I’m uncertain about Jones’ role in the coming playoffs, he’s earned the No. 3 LH spot but Russell gets some starts. We’ll see.

U 18 Scoring

Below are my ranked players and their scoring totals in Texas:

  1. No. 1 RW Dylan Guenther, Edmonton Oil Kings: 3 games, 2-3-5
  2. No. 3 LC Mason McTavish Peterborough Petes: 3 games, 3-2-5
  3. No. 4 RD Brandt Clarke Barrie Colts: 3 games, 2-3-5
  4. No. 8 LD Simon Edvinsson, Vasteras IK: 3 games, 0-2-2
  5. No. 13 LC Francesco Pinelli, Kitchener Rangers: 3 games, 4-3-7
  6. No. 15 RC Logan Stankoven, Kamloops Blazers: 3 games, 2-3-5
  7. No. 18 RW Nikita Chibrikov, St. Petersburg: 3 games, 2-5-7
  8. No. 21 RW Fabian Lysell, Lulea: 3 games, 1-2-3
  9. No. 24 LW Brennan Othmann, Flint Firebirds: 3 games, 1-1-2
  10. No. 25 LW Fedor Svechkov, Ladia Togliatti: 3 games, 2-3-5
  11. No. 28 LC Brett Harrison, Oshawa Generals: 3games, 1-0-1
  12. No. 31 LW Conner Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds: 3 games, 0-2-2
  13. No. 33 RW Chase Stillman, Sudbury Wolves: 3 games, 0-1-1
  14. No. 34 RW Isak Rosen, Leksands: 3 games, 2-0-2
  15. No. 35 LD Olen Zellweger, Everett Silvertips: 3 games, 0-5-5
  16. No. 36 RW Simon Robertsson, Skelleftea: 3 games, 0-1-1
  17. No. 40 RD Corson Ceulmans, Brooks Bandits: 2 games, 1-3-4
  18. No. 42 LW Sasha Pastujov, USNDTP (U18): 3 games, 3-2-5
  19. No. 44 LC Oliver Kapanen JYP: 1 game, 0-0-0
  20. No. 45 LC Wyatt Johnson, Windsor Spitfires: 3 games, 1-1-2
  21. No. 48 RW Samu Tuomaala, Karpat: 3 games, 4-3-7
  22. No. 49 RW Prokhor Poltapov, Moscow: 3 games, 0-1-1
  23. No. 50 LD Ethan Dal Mastro, Mississauga Steelheads: 3 games, 0-0-0
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JimmyV1965

Geez, the Oilers are going to be a very big, very fast team in a couple years. Here’s hoping Holland makes the right moves this summer as the team transitions to complementary players like McLeod, Holloway, Bouchard, Broberg and Samaroukov.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Yes indeed. Imagine if Lavoie can improve his wheels over the next 2 years as well!

Redbird62

Overlooked somewhat in all the other stuff going on with McDavid, is the rate at which he is piling up assists. Right now, his assist total of 58 would be tied for 8th in scoring. Kucherov had a big assist year in 2019 with 87 in 82 and that would have been good for 17th in total points. Even in ’06/07 Jumbo Joe’s 92 assists were equal to 13th place overall and his 96 assists in 05/06 would have been good for 10th.

Over an 82 game season, Connor would be on pace for 97 assists – above Thornton’s best. Only 3 Players have ever broken 100 assists in season, Gretzky (11X), Lemieux (1) and Orr (1). Lemieux would have had a few more without injury. McDavid can make plays.

N64

Back in the day draft pools would draft Gretzy’s goals separate from his assists. Connor is heading there quickly

Last edited 1 month ago by N64
flea

Flames schedule is brutal too, only 2 games in basically the next two weeks. They’ll just have to sit back and watch themselves get eliminated. I question whether the final 4 between Van and Cal are even played at this point.

jm363561

Wrong post

Last edited 1 month ago by jm363561
OriginalPouzar

Drai with a 7 point lead on Marner for 2nd in the scoring race – Marner with only 5 games to go.

McDavid with a 16 point lead on Drai and 23 point lead on Marner.

My goodness.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Sam Bennett with another 2 assists tonight – 4 shots, 2 hits, 60% in the faceoff – only 16 minutes though as there weren’t many special team minutes.

That’s 13 points in 9 games as a Panther.

MattyLeBlanc

I WANTED HIM DAMN IT!!!

DevilsLettuce

Hall racked up a couple more helpers as the Bruins put a beating on the helpless Sabres, nothing but production for Hall.

OriginalPouzar

Hall has been very productive since the trade (10 points in 11 games) – not quite at post-trade Sam Bennett levels, mind you.

Love flames cast-off Sam Bennett right now.

Redbird62

Good for Hall, he is definitely playing well, but in his 11 games, he has played Buffalo 6 times and has 6 of his points against them. So far this season, 15 players who played at least 6 games against Buffalo have averaged >=1.0 PPG against them, including Justin Schultz (8/8). Buffalo’s team defense is worse than Ottawa’s and about the same as Philadelphia’s.

Crazy Pedestrian

McDavid now 13 points from 100 with 6 games to go. I was personally thinking he’d finish with 97 (to match his number), but I think he can do it! Just have to solve those pesky Montreal Canadiens… (they’ve been pretty good at keeping him at bay all season)

Also, No big deal or anything, but lazy Draisaitl is now tied for league lead in +/- (while holding 2nd place in points).
Yeah, not a defensive bone in his body.

Last edited 1 month ago by Crazy Pedestrian
90s fan

I’m rooting for optimus prime. 97. Largest two digit prime number. Just as interesting as 100. Just doesn’t come with the fan fair.

OriginalPouzar

Nurse played 31:34 tonight – my goodness.

Larsson 23:54
McDavid – 22
Leon – 24

Jones was at 9 – clearly a reason Nurse was so high.

I wonder if Lagesson gets a shot here soon (unless Koekkoek is back next week).

Munny

Have they started the Connor McDavid wing at the Hockey Hall of Fame yet?

I feel like they’re gonna need a head start.

BONE207

Build it & they will come…new HoF.

Munny

I think it moved.

BONE207

I know it broke!!!

KnightRain

So satisfying. Beating the flamerz is always great. Ending their season is almost a spiritual experience.

Someone

I think I like Singh as the play by play on the national broadcasts. Seems like a legitimately nice guy with some passion for what he’s doing.

Gerta Rauss

I like him as well

BONE207

He’ll do for all non-Oiler games.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not so sure the flames are going to make the playoffs. I mean, I know I ready in the last day or so that they were a “very good bet to make the playoffs” but I’m not 100% sure……

Someone

Just you wait, there will be a meeting of rubber and roads.

Ice Sage

Catch ya next year, Johnny Golf!

Last edited 1 month ago by Ice Sage
DevilsLettuce

Few things better then seeing Sutter hockey fail miserably.

BONE207

End of a pandemic us all I’ve got

jp

Also Johnny Hockey.

Solly

Na na na naaaaa, na na na naaaaa….hey hey heeeeeeey….GOODBYE!

leadfarmer

Well that pretty much eliminates the Flames

fishman

Well that was no Picasso but satisfying win against the assholes from the South!

DevilsLettuce

Smith making sure the Flames know to get the fuck out wooooo

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Sutter really turned things around in Calgary…

Gerta Rauss

LoL

Last edited 1 month ago by Gerta Rauss
hunter1909

2 empty net goals LOL poor Flames

jp

That’s just salty.

Last edited 1 month ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

Don’t think so – McDavid, to Drai, to Archie, to Nurse – no?

dcsj

I think just three

jp

Yup, edited out my mistake!

KnightRain

And another Boom! lol Never been happier to score empty net goals.

Gerta Rauss

Mcd started the zone exit on that…but it passed thru Leon, Archie and then Nurse got the empty netter

4-1 and suck it Flames

Last edited 1 month ago by Gerta Rauss
OriginalPouzar

Archie passing to Nurse there cost McDavid his 4th point — ha!

fishman

Hee Hee!

DevilsLettuce

Rubber road has been painted orange

jp

Very nice!!

Great to get the insurance goal!

KnightRain

BOOM for ending the flamerz season!

DevilsLettuce

Wooooo Calgary worse team ever

BONE207

Fuck it fLamers…

Last edited 1 month ago by BONE207
Gerta Rauss

that should be another McPoint on the Archie empty netter

more empty net coming up

fishman

Yea Baby!!!! Suck it Flames

BONE207

Archie…woohoo

hunter1909

With a 2-1 lead to protect and under 5 minutes left on the clock, Larsson makes another solid play, passing the puck to RNH who proceeds to shit himself with the puck, coughing it up in the zone instead of getting it the fuck out.

This is the $6 million player Oilers cannot possibly live without lol

fishman

This game can’t end soon enough!

BONE207

Think of it as twisting the knife in the fLames…🤪

LMHF#1

I don’t like much of anything about this strategy.

Giving a completely inferior team a chance by defending a one goal lead isn’t smart whether it turns out or not.

On the plus side – McLeod keeps driving the puck deep – really strong zone entries from him.

BONE207

Yay Johnny…shooting from the goal line…you go boy…

DevilsLettuce

What an absolutely shitty team Calgary is, like probably worse then Vancouver who at this point is about to be regulated.

delooper

What happened to the Flames jerseys? They used to have the national flag, to help the Calgarians remember the country they play in.

BONE207

Ever since Wexit, Alberta is all that counts

OriginalPouzar

Not a fan of Archie with McDavid (and Nurse/Barrie) on the 4 on 4 – that’s half pregnant. Go with McLeod or Jesse.

Solly

I like that the coach already has enough faith to put Highlander out at 4 on 4 though.
This kid is never going back to the AHL.

flyfish1168

Ref losing control of the game because they don’t make the calls. That is why game management doesn’t work

Chief Inspector

This times infinity

Prairie_Sentinel

Game management works when you set a standard and stick to it. When your standard changes from period to period, you get frustrated players, coaches and fans, plus a lot of questions about your eyesight, ancestry, and even whether or not you’re pregnant

Chief Inspector

But Giordano isn’t in the box?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Eat shit Gio.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Careful, Gio… there’s an Elkhound lurking beneath that Corgi veneer.

Bling

Giordana is so tough with those sucker punches.

flyfish1168

phlegms are one of the NHL dirtiest teams. Another slew foot. Why the NHL and the refs don’t call these is beyond me.

Reja

We have no answer

flyfish1168

Refs are supposed to be the answer. game management stops it

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Lucic is a piece of shit. So happy he is not on the Oilers.

leadfarmer

I guess it’s not a slew foot if you’re down by one

DevilsLettuce

Lucic is a coward, which is why he’ll be the Flames captain next season.

Bling

Draisaitl has been dealing with a ton of blatant penalties lately.

Solly

Ya but he embelishes too much. Which means they get into his head. Which is their plan…
Play through it…that gets them into their heads.

Sierra

Leon embellishes?