Up go the Flaps, Down go the Wheels

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers dressed two rookie blue last night and Evan Bouchard scored a wizard’s goal that will have the whole town talking. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Connor McDavid is now 31-62-93 after 51 games, meaning he’ll need seven points in the next five games. In his last 25 games, the captain is 17-34-51. In the 26 games leading up to that run, McDavid was 14-28-42. A giant walks among us.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS AFTER 51 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 20-26-5, 45 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 28-15-8, 64 points; goal differential +16
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-24-4, 50 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 23-24-4, 50 points; goal differential -14
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 27-18-6, 59 points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 32-17-2, 66 points; goal differential +23

No one is talking about it (why would they?) but the Oilers are six points back with five to play and a game in hand on the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s over, impossible. And yet…….

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MAY

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Expected May record: 4-2-2, 10 points in 8 games
  • Actual May record: 3-0-0, 6 points in 3 games

I appear to have badly misjudged this month and will have a stern talking to with myself in the summer months. The Canucks are trying but that’s a depleted group (Basil Rathbone’s great grandson played in last night’s game) over there.

LINES, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisatl-McDavid-Puljujarvi played 14:48, going 10-7 shots, 1-1 goals, 0-3 HDSC and 17-11 Corsi five on five. Draisaitl had two goals (one five on five) along with four shots, a clean minute on the PK and quality work on the PP (a four-on-three was over so quickly you’d have missed it if you’d sneezed). McDavid was flying again, two assists on the night and could have delivered more with better puck luck. Puljujarvi had one shot, two takeaways and some good looks (release needs to be a hair quicker).
  • Kahun-Nuge-Yamamoto played 11:28, going 6-6 shots, no goals, 2-2 HDSC and 13-12 Corsi five on five. Kahun had a PP assist, and at five on five one HDSC and several reasonable looks that could have turned into something. Nuge skated miles as always and looked dangerous at times but no one on the line could cash five on five. Yamamoto was the most dynamic member of the trio, his goal-scoring slump now at 10 games. He had two shots, one HDSC and created plenty, but nothing rhymed. He’s hitting line drives all over the ballyard now, those base hits will drop in soon.
  • Chiasson-Khaira-Archibald played 8:54, going 3-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 3-0 HDSC and 8-8 Corsi five on five. Chiasson had one assist, and won a faceoff. I don’t think he’ll be back and will miss him. Habs used to have these guys back in the day, just tough to play against and bring enough offense to keep you honest. Claude Larose. Khaira had two shots and one HDSC, 3:15 clean on the PK. Archibald had an assist, HDSC, was a pain in the ass a couple of times with the puck on his stick. Also played 4:07 on the PK. Effective trio.
  • Ennis-McLeod-Turris played 8:19, 1-1 shots and 5-4 Corsi five on five. Ennis damn near scored on one of those lift shots all the kids are trying, McLeod had a shot and looked comfortable with the puck on his stick, and Turris played with urgency but was not effective.

PAIRINGS AND GOALIE

  • Nurse-Barrie played 14:43, going 7-6 shots, 1-1 goals, 3-3 HDSC and 16-9. Nurse scored a fabulous goal, he’s at 16 for the season. Barrie picked up an assist and had five shots, he’s going through another of those fever periods where he gets caught up the ice and can’t get back in time to make the GA photo. He’s going to need to cut down on the episodes in the playoffs.
  • Kulikov-Larsson played 14:39, going 4-3 shots, no goals, no HDSC and 8-10 Corsi five on five. Kulikov is a savvy veteran but has these Dick Van Dyke in Mary Poppins moments when the puck jumps and skips on him and he’s in a lot of trouble. Larsson got mad last night, people shouldn’t oughta do that to him.
  • Lagesson-Bouchard played 10:31, going 1-6 shots, no goals, 0-2 HDSC and 8-10 Corsi five on five. Lagesson played a steady game with little wobble, but the star was Bouchard who scored on the power play and also spent 2:49 playing effectively on the PK. “I thought Bouchard was excellent tonight, Lagesson came in and a real solid game,” said coach Tippett.
  • Mike Smith stopped 28 of 29, .966 and now owns a .925SP for the year.

FIVE ON FIVE PTS-60

I like to look at forwards five on five points-per-60, this blog has deployed this measure for over 15 years now. It gives a true reading on a level playing field and identifies those who are delivering a great deal from the depth lines (Jujhar Khaira) and those who are playing on skill lines and struggling. Forwards who qualify for the top 372 (31 times 12) have played 311 or more minutes so far this season at five on five.

My quick line in the sand is 2.00+ for No. 1 line, 1.75+ for the second line and then 1.50+ for anyone in the bottom six. If a player is delivering at or near those numbers in that role or below, music! Let’s have a look.

First line scorers (NHL F’s 1-93)

  • No. 1 Connor McDavid 3.46
  • No. 16 Leon Draisaitl 2.66
  • No. 89 Jujhar Khaira 1.97

McDavid and Draisaitl are two of the best forwards in the NHL and that is reflected here. Khaira is a depth NHL forward having perhaps his best season and posting numbers we haven’t seen from him before. All three of these men have contributed to the team’s winning record and McDavid has proven again he is the best player in the NHL.

Second line scorers (NHL F’s 94-186)

  • None

Third line scorers (NHL F’s 187-279)

  • No. 187 Tyler Ennis 1.54
  • No. 193 Jesse Puljujarvi 1.51
  • No. 260 Kailer Yamamoto 1.27
  • No. 264 Dominik Kahun 1.25

This may appear discouraging but is actually a positive. Ennis has been a productive player whenever he’s in the lineup and Puljujarvi has pulled himself up to what is really low second-line scoring levels. He should qualify for the top 186 by season’s end. Yamamoto is in a slump and it’s going to crater his final totals for the season but he still qualifies for third-line production. Kahun is recovering now from a slow start.

Fourth line scorers (NHL F’s 280-372)

  • No. 291 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.17
  • No. 294 Alex Chiasson 1.16
  • No. 310 Devin Shore 1.10
  • No. 334 Josh Archibald 0.96

For the depth players, these numbers are in the range of expectation. Much of Chiasson’s offense comes from the power play and his five on five role is in checking and goal suppression. Nuge’s almost season-long slump is the breaking news here.

SUMMARY

  • First-line players having peak seasons: McDavid, Draisaitl
  • Bottom-six forwards having career seasons: Khaira
  • Top-six forwards posting close to second line production: Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Kahun
  • Bottom-six forward posting second line production: Ennis
  • Top-six forwards posting fourth line production: Nugent-Hopkins
  • Bottom-six forwards posting bottom-six production: Chiasson, Shore, Archibald

McDavid’s career season and Draisaitl’s continued excellence are the lead five on five stories for Edmonton’s forwards offensively in 2020-21. There are two outliers: Khaira and Nuge. If Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and Kahun can end the season with a five on five flourish, this group of skill forwards will have had a fine season overall.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we hit the ground running with a two-hour show devoted to sports. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will talk about last night’s game, McDavid’s incredible scoring season, and NHL player safety. At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will pop in to talk about Super Bowl favourites, Aaron Rodgers’ future and the NL Cy Young award offs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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hunter1909

Lowetide I sure wouldn’t pressure Yamamoto, who is forced to live outside the McDavid line in the new JP era, not unless he forces his way in by scoring ha ha.

Next season Ken Holland will have replacement players coming in to turn the heat up for the entire lineup, so he’s still got the playoffs and training camp to stick around hopefully without too much drama.

wolf8888

Watching that amazing offence in those red uniforms was almost like watching Red Army at their peak wasn’t it?…No?

hunter1909

I often think that when watching Flames games.

N64

Habs: Tor(2), Edm(2)
Peg: Ott, Van(2), Tor

Magic number for Jets will be 3. They’d have the tiebreaker, right?

Last edited 1 month ago by N64
OriginalPouzar

Ottawa is 8-2-1 in their last 11.

If they didn’t have to play the Oilers this season, they’d likely have made the playoffs.

Victoria Oil

…Or if it was an 82 game season.

Glad we played most of our games against the Sens earlier in the season and most of our games vs. the Nucks later in the season.

hunter1909

Better luck next season for you.

wolf8888

4-0 Jets, Markstrom rocking a .733 save percentage. Anyone know when the rubber meets the road?

Dac189

First series of the playoffs. Unless the Oilers win. In that case, second series of the playoffs. Unless the Oilers win. In that case…

N64

The parade if they win out.

Hankster

fluke, impossible repeat

Dac189

.

Last edited 1 month ago by Dac189
OriginalPouzar

Condors holds on for the 2-1 win – the Marody beauty holds up as the winner.

Skinner stops 19 of 20 for the win – not a hugely tough night but some solid saves from what I saw.

I think they take over first place from Henderson now.

flyfish1168

shames look like they have given up already. No life at all with their play

Reja

They’re a boring team with mediocre fans how does Treliving and Cassie’s hubby still have a job.

OriginalPouzar

Nesterov on the flames PP – so happy Sutter is their coach (and for a while).

Nesterov with a poor play on the zone entry and the Jets score on a shorthanded 2 on 0.

Love it.

Lots of time left, however, if the Jets can hold on to win in regulation, it will give them 2 more regulation wins than the Habs to go with their 2 point lead in the standing (with 3 games left for each).

The Habs would likely have to get 3 more points in the last 4 games to take 2nd.

OriginalPouzar

Marody with a beauty with 3 seconds left in the 2nd to give the Condors a 2-1 lead.

Benson takes a pass from Deharnais entering the blue, simple pass to the middle to a streaking Marody who beats a defender to the middle, takes the puck wide, fakes, goes behind the net and wraps it home.

OriginalPouzar

Nice play by Stanton on the offensive zone board to keep the zone and get a pass to Cracknell who snipes one home from the slot.

wolf8888

1-0 Peg. Nice start

Lucinius

The sigh from Hrudey on the goal was gold.

wolf8888

haha, he’s so professional

Todd Macallan

Flames with 1 shot in the first 10 mins while fighting for the scraps left of their season. They are who we thought they were.

wolf8888

It’s a real pity to see them struggle 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie gets the puck in full stride at the blue line near the end of a PP and powers towards the net – tries to go backhand/fivehole and is stopped but its one of the first times I’ve seen him make that type of play as a Condor – good sigh.

wolf8888

5-1 Sens.

Love it

fishman

You mean the free spot on the dance card Sens????

wolf8888

Their losses don’t count right? What about their wins? Hard to keep up

Harpers Hair

In other news…the Ottawa win moves them past the Canucks in the draft lottery.

The Canucks are now 6th with a good chance Columbus could pass them moving the Canucks to 5th.

leadfarmer

1/3 of the way through the season I said it wouldn’t surprise me if Ottawa did not finish last in the division
That Canucks team is no good without Markstrom playing vezina caliber

N64

I hear the NHL is arranging a 3 game playout series with the *lames to see if the Dys can earn a lesser pick. No sense holding the playoffs for that shambalooza.

flea

This lost season for the canucks could actually be a silver lining long term, sign Peterson and Hughes to cheaper deals, get a better draft pick. It could really set them up for long term success.

Ice Sage

where have I heard that kind of logic before…? oh yeah for 15 years here!
kinda nice to be not clinging to draft hopes this time of year

N64

if they don’t repeat the HH endorsed reaches that set them back. they kept the wrong exec.

90s fan

I remember the days of the lottery. Summer was always more exciting then winter.

Enjoy that.

dangilitis

You sound like an Oilers fan a decade ago. Empathetic (although not sympathetic)

OriginalPouzar

LeBrun polled all 31 head coaches for their top 3 votes for the Norris – article at The Athletic so I will just say, Nurse finished 5th.

Ice Sage

That feels right – he’s had a breakout year but a few others (Fox, Theodore) have had better and there are guys who linger by reputation (Hedman, Josi) and guys in the same range (Avalanche D)

Harpers Hair

In respect of the intellectual property rights of the author, here is a link to LeBrun’s article.

https://theathletic.com/2566801/2021/05/05/lebrun-we-asked-all-31-nhl-head-coaches-who-they-think-should-win-the-norris-trophy/

OriginalPouzar

Please, do tell me more about intellectual property rights.

Harpers Hair

As a lawyer, you shouldn’t need anyone to tell you about them but you repeatedly ignore the common courtesy of linking to source articles and, in fact, violating Lowetide’s general policy of giving credit to content authors by linking to the original content.

And, should you wish to flaunt your bona fides, I have vast experience in this area as a broadcast executive, publisher and author in a wide range of publications.

I have to assume you don’t do this simple act to make yourself look more as a credible source of information but, really, it’s very simple and easy to do and your failure to do so indicates the property of others is of no concern to you.

OriginalPouzar

The article and where it could be found was posted.

Please feel free to reach out to LeBrun and let him know if my alleged illegal acts – he’s reachable.

Harpers Hair

You would be a pimple on his ass.

But common courtesy and respect don’t cost a thing.

OriginalPouzar

I literally just laughed out loud – that was awesome – thank you for that.

N64

Man, LT runs a class establishment Even the trolls try to be respectful. I prefer a link, but site name isn’t a big barrier to finding a recent article

DevilsLettuce

He said the man’s name and where to find it you outright lying hack.

Courtesy and respect, two things you know absolutely nothing about. So how about you start learning the meaning to both of those words and go sit in the fucking corner you little disrespectful shit.

tsunami

what do you know about courtesy and respect ?

leadfarmer

OP Cited source and where it could be found
Some people don’t spam this site with links especially when they are hidden behind a paywall

wolf8888

Yes, I think we, or at least I, have seen enough inane links to sites with paywalls from someone with nothing better to do.

leadfarmer

Hedman polling first is pretty sad though
Overall yes.
his play this season, definitely not worthy

OriginalPouzar

Ottawa up 3-1 on the Habs going in to the 3rd period.

McNuge93

Guessing that Habs win in OT, Caufield with the winner.

wolf8888

Ran out of luck tonight

OriginalPouzar

Skinner starts tonight.

Gravel is back but Niemelainen (wrist) and Kemp (hasn’t played since corked in that fight a week or so ago) remain out.

Reja

What a breath of fresh air Anson Carter is hopefully he replaces Flames butt-licker Hrudey.

DevilsLettuce

What an embarrassing evening in New York.

Lucinius

Less embarrassing then the lack of suspension on Wilson.

Honestly, there was no other way for things to go down, especially in a NHL without the formerly obligatory ‘tough guy’. Now, I have zero issues with the death of the pure ‘tough guy’ role in the NHL, but players like Wilson are exactly why they hung around far longer than they should have.

And given the lack of suspension on Wilson, there’s a real possibility the ‘tough guy’ role comes back, especially given Parros’ take on violence in hockey (which, imo, seems to be there needs to be more of it, I guess?), at least in some form.

Harpers Hair

A one game suspension would have made the ensuing chaos unnecessary

Reja

I think that’s why the Caps pulled Wilson out he could of destroyed a couple of Rangers but he let up. I could see Pavel getting suspended for at least the rest of the year for almost decapitating Mantha.

DevilsLettuce

I don’t think you can really separate the lack of suspension and the NHL handling of it and tonight’s results.

It’s an all around embarrassing bush league operation.

godot10

Hopefully, Holland will find a buyer for Kassian in Pittsburgh or Manhattan.

Keeper_13

Can’t help but think it’s exactly what the NHL wanted. I mean, what else could they have possibly thought would happen? If they want hockey to be more inclusive, maybe they should try to appeal to someone who isn’t in the “retired NHL goon” demographic.

Harlekiini

I can’t shake the feeling that the whole thing is more or less handled with marketing in mind. Get people to talk about NHL, get a reaction out of them. All publicity is good publicity sort of thing.

Keeper_13

Sure, but IMO they really messed it up. Lots of people are going to see that. Which new fans will it win over? Maybe a few MMA fans I guess. Maybe the NHL could attract more WWE fans by admitting that they also run a keybafe league? Even in gridiron football, the violence exists as part of the game, not as a circus sideshow. Pretty sure footballers and ruggers alike would roll their eyes and think, “we play a violent sport but this is just violence.”

Harpers Hair

4 fights in the first minute in NY.

Harpers Hair

Now 5

Harpers Hair

Now 6

Harpers Hair

Capitals dressed 11 forwards…6 are in the penalty box.

Last edited 1 month ago by Harpers Hair
Prairie_Sentinel

Not surprised really.

Gamma Cassiopeiae

Fine work by the Department of Player Safety.

Keeper_13

George Parros wanted to make hockey violent again. Clearly so did the NHL. Turns out that when they wanted hockey to be “inclusive”, they meant it should include meatheads beating the tobasco juice out of each other while the NHL pipes in artificial cheering.

Last edited 1 month ago by Keeper_13
Keeper_13

Remember when someone wanted to make a league for hockey fighting, and the NHL acted offended by the concept?

N64

~ always wondered what they mean by a New York minute ~

Harpers Hair

In a strange twist of fate…Wilson left the game in the second period with an “upper body injury”.

I suspect that, once the Capitals had the lead, they decided to sit him to avoid any more assaults on his dignity.

Material Elvis

I think he only played one or two shifts after his fight then left the game (1st period).

OriginalPouzar

Go Sens
Go Jets (so easy when they are playing the flames)

Woogie63

Do it NYR old ex-Oilers make GREAT hockey executives.

Reja

Sather did all right for himself.

Harpers Hair

Georges Laraque (@GeorgesLaraque) Tweeted:

Hey @NYRangers, give me a one game contract for tonight’s game and I’ll take care of @tom_wilso… lol

https://twitter.com/GeorgesLaraque/status/1389979979782533124?s=20

Redbird62

I thought Bouchard played a very good game last night. Especially after an almost 2 month mid-season gap between games. He did mention in his postgame, that while not ideal and he understands the uniqueness of the season, he says he took advantage of the opportunity to work on specific things (weaknesses probably) that he might not otherwise get to focus on if he were playing regularly in the AHL. Both he and Tippett alluded to taxi-squad skates being more intense than regular practises to better emulate game conditions. Bouchard was doing fine earlier this season, but though it was just Vancouver, his game looked more composed last night.

Back earlier in the season, I drew attention to Bouchard’s “Popeye” like forearms. When combined with a sharp mind and other skills like accuracy, that is a great asset for him. He can generate tremendous velocity on both his passes and shots with seemingly very little effort, or certainly less movement, because of that forearm/wrist strength. That buys him that extra split second relative to his peers to be able to fire a quick shot past the defender or rifle the stretch pass 80 feet, since he requires no wind up to generate the speed, so the defenders have less time to react. That is a natural gift that he has learned well to exploit to go along with his other skills. And his skating looks just fine.

Georgexs

I like to look at forwards five on five points-per-60, this blog has deployed this measure for over 15 years now. It gives a true reading on a level playing field and identifies those who are delivering a great deal from the depth lines (Jujhar Khaira) and those who are playing on skill lines and struggling.

LT has stated he prefers this stat, and I haven’t been able to budge him on this. No wukkas.

To everyone else.

Jujhar Khaira has 11 points.

His 1.97 5v5 P60 puts him in a tie with Kopitar and ahead of Crosby and Hall. Do you know who else is ahead of Crosby and Hall? Lucic @ 1.81 5v5 P60. That guy.

Is 5v5 P60 really a “true” reading then? Is JJ a first line forward because he scores at first line forward rates in his minutes? Is RNH a 4th line forward because he scores at 4th line forward rates during his minutes? Why don’t they just switch places then? What’s Tippett thinking?

RNH broke the 1.75 threshold twice in his first 5 years, 3 times in his next 5 years. In every one of those years, RNH has scored at first line rates on total points/GP. Meanwhile, JJ has always scored below replacement level on total points/GP for his career. Hmm…

Some people seem to think that 5v5 P60 is more a player trait than a team trait. If this were the case, results year over year should be consistent because players who did well one year should be likely to do well the following year and vice versa. That is, players carry their ability to score at 5v5 with them, whatever “playing field” they play on.

But the between season correlations are, in fact, very low. 5v5 P60 results are super random and tend to regress solidly to the mean. The big reason there’s any year to year correlation at all is that there are always some exceptional players (CMD, Panarin, Crosby, Malkin, Drai, Marner, Matthews, etc.) who really do stand out in their ability to produce offense.

If, otoh, you look at the year over year results for depth forwards, players who average 12 or fewer 5v5 minutes per night, the correlation approaches 0. Which tells you these guys are like fair coins, basically interchangeable. You learn nothing from their results in one season. As long as they’re deployed as depth forwards, they’re likely to score like the typical depth forward in the upcoming season, regardless of how they did this season.

Since 2007, of the 374 forwards who’ve played 12 or fewer minutes a night and scored better than 1.75 P60, just 124 (33%) managed to do so the following year. JJ, having played under 10 5v5 minutes per night this season, falls into this group. If teams made a habit of promoting their depth forwards who score at 1st line 5v5 rates, they would lose two bets for every one that they win, aka go broke fast.

The “true reading on a level playing field” thing is wrong.

It’s not a true reading. You’re counting comparatively small numbers. A number here and there, and voila, there’s too much randomness in the results. The top echelon of players tend to produce at top levels but, even among this group, there are no guarantees. Top scorers have so-so, even bad years at 5v5. It’s not at all unusual. The rest of the forwards just bounce around on 5v5 P60 from one year to the next, sometimes spiking, sometimes cratering, averaging well below the top scorers overall.

It’s not a level playing field. The minutes you play aren’t the same, they’re not fungible. What your HC thinks about you isn’t the same. Who you’re playing with isn’t the same. Who you’re playing against isn’t the same. The game conditions in which you’re deployed aren’t the same. The incentives to score vs. defend aren’t the same.

Everyone plays 5v5. Everyone scores at 5v5. It’s really not special. It’s not “the hardest thing to do in hockey” because everyone does it. (Meanwhile not everyone gets to play PP, which makes scoring on the PP much, much harder.) The per 60 rate at which a player scores at 5v5 isn’t reliable information much less a true reading.

Don’t take my word for it. Download some data off of NST and put in an hour’s work.

DevilsLettuce

What you’re saying is Nuggy is a power play wizard while also just all around amazing.

I agree whole heartedly.

David

Keep preaching it.

OriginalPouzar

It gives a true reading on a level playing field and identifies those who are delivering a great deal from the depth lines (Jujhar Khaira) and those who are playing on skill lines and struggling.

N64

Any metric trying to find the quality of the player needs to consider the quality of competition and the linemates. As Woodmoney and others have noted what ice time a coach is willing to give you not only affects your stats, but it is a good proxy for the QOC you faced.

Bank Shot

There is randomness in 5 on 5 scoring for sure, but if you look at the history of RNH, he has consistently failed to match ES scoring rates with his line mates from Hall/Eberle to Draisaitl/McDavid.

Year after year when a guy fails to perform at a high level at ES, I think its fair to hang the tag on RNH that his ES performance is generally subpar. The one season he was on the second line at ES and PP (16-17) he scored 43 points.

Do you give $6 million to a guy who scores 43 points when he is the best player on a line?

Georgexs

I looked at this a few days ago.

For his career, 11-12 to 20-21, RNH is at 1.70 5v5 P60.

He ranks 222 out of 706 forwards who’ve played 1000 or more minutes during that time. His cluster (~ 1.7 5v5 P60) includes Rust, Horvat, Palmieri, Roslovic, Lucic, and Strome.

He’s played with very good 5v5 players:

Player, 5v5 P60, Rank

CMD, 2.94, 1
Drai, 2.34, 16
Hall, 2.23, 22
Eberle, 2.09, 48

RNH, 1.70, 222

His results clearly lag.

I think, apart from this season, he’s generally done better than his career number when he’s played with talent like the players above. But RNH hasn’t always played with players of this caliber. He’s often been the swiss army knife, moving all around the lineup, patching things up here, holding things together there, asked to play with all sorts of sorts. That probably suppresses his results a bit.

RNH is no CMD, and to a lesser extent Drai or Hall, all players who drive offense. But he might not be that far off from Eberle, a player who has considerable offensive talent but relies on other offensive talent around him (Barzal) to produce.

Not sure what went wrong this season (maybe a little bit of hanging back when playing with JP and Nurse and Barrie, maybe a lack of finish, maybe bad luck), but in the three seasons leading up to this one, RNH scored 2.31 with CMD (648 minutes) and 3.21 with Drai (635 minutes). Given he played over 2900 5v5 minutes in those three season, it gives you a sense of how much time RNH spent not playing with the best offensive players on the team.

16-17, we all agree, was the curse of Lucic. In the 3 years prior, RNH played over 2000 minutes with Eberle and scored 1.98 5v5 P60.

So, yeah, RNH’s 5v5 offense is shy but I think some of it has to do with his not infrequent deployment with non-scoring forwards and the fact he’s not a driver. Thing is, if he played over 20 minutes a night and was also a driver, he’d be Kopitar.

As for $6M, Eberle gets a little less than that to play 17 minutes of offense a night with Barzal.

Redbird62

Nice take. The paragraph beginning with “It’s not a level playing field” sums it up very well. The question people don’t ask often enough when reviewing data or stats is why?

jp

While I agree with you about the predictive power of P/G over 5v5/60, part of the value of 5v5/60 is how versatile and accessible it is.

You or I or LT can go look up RNH’s 5v5/60 scoring numbers/rates with Eberle, or McDavid, or whoever. Those data simply aren’t available with P/G.

Likewise, I do think there’s value in looking at how well players score at 5v5 (removing PP time from the equation). 5v5 P/G is even less accessible than overall P/G (I have to get out a spreadsheet and download stuff to calculate it) so it’s really not realistic as a go-to measure. And you can’t look at WOWYs there either.

Basically there are multiple practical reasons that make 5v5/60 a preferred metric, even if it is more volatile and less predictive than P/G metrics.

Georgexs

Ha. The analysis is wonky and leads to wrong conclusions but, hey, it’s convenient.

To be fair, I did look it up just now, exactly because it’s easily available on NST and I was using large chunks of ice time. It’s not like there’s 0 information there.

LT does a lot during a day. I can see why he wants to stick to a framework he trusts. But analysis based on 5v5 P60 (much less 5v5 P60 plus WOWY which is even noisier) introduces all kinds of landmines that readers aren’t aware they have to navigate.

Landmines like JJ is a first line 5v5 guy. Or, in an earlier era, Brett Connolly is an even strength scoring machine and he’s worth $5M in free agency (I think that was a WG estimate).

A simple heuristic is: anything unusual revealed by 5v5 P60 should be discounted or viewed with suspicion. If 5v5 P60 gives you a different signal from Pts/GP, you should put more faith in Pts/GP. You’ll be less wrong in the long term.

OriginalPouzar

The landmine re: JJ is not true if you read through the caveats such as

“It gives a true reading on a level playing field and identifies those who are delivering a great deal from the depth lines (Jujhar Khaira) and those who are playing on skill lines and struggling.

Georgexs

Well, Pts/GP says JJ is delivering replacement value. There are 299 forwards who’ve played 10 or more games this season who are scoring at a better rate. 5v5 P60 says JJ is delivering a great deal. There are just 93 forwards who’ve played 120 or more 5v5 minutes who have a better result. Is JJ awesome or is he replacement level? That’s the landmine.

OriginalPouzar

To me, that is an argument against P/G as I think JJ’s production is under-stated given his role and quality of linemates – not to mention two games where he barely played but gets “credited” for a game.

jp

Ha. The analysis is wonky and leads to wrong conclusions but, hey, it’s convenient.

No. The analysis isn’t perfect but it does things the other analysis can’t do.

And on convenience, the 5v5 version of the other analysis is inconvenient enough that most of the blog’s readers couldn’t do it. And most of those who could do it either don’t have the time or otherwise aren’t inclined to put in the effort.

To be fair, I did look it up just now, exactly because it’s easily available on NST and I was using large chunks of ice time. It’s not like there’s 0 information there.

I know you did. It was because it was convenient, but also because you couldn’t do that type of analysis using Pts/GP. Simply not possible.

I think there’s rather a lot of information there, even if much of it is noisy.

analysis based on 5v5 P60 (much less 5v5 P60 plus WOWY which is even noisier) introduces all kinds of landmines that readers aren’t aware they have to navigate.

Landmines, there really aren’t that many are there? Just that the data is noisy.

As you’ve shown us, Pts/GP has TOI and PP usage baked into it (also linemates/teammates I guess). And it also uses a larger sample of minutes. So it’s more reproducible year to year than 5v5 P/60. That’s all cool. I agree.

But you presumably see some value in WOWY, even though they’re noisy. Right?

A simple heuristic is: anything unusual revealed by 5v5 P60 should be discounted or viewed with suspicion. If 5v5 P60 gives you a different signal from Pts/GP, you should put more faith in Pts/GP. You’ll be less wrong in the long term.

I agree with this, but I still think there’s value in 5v5 rates as well.

And let’s not pretend that Pts/GP is perfect.
(what are the year over year correlations for Pts/GP, 5v5Pts/GP and 5v5P/60 again? I don’t actually remember exactly how different they are).

Correlations aside, Pts/GP told us that Alex Chiasson was a mid-2nd line forward in 18-19. 5v5 P/60 said he was a borderline 3rd/4th line scorer, as he’s always been. We also know he got cherry PP minutes and got to play with McDavid and Draisaitl at 5v5 that year. Is that a landmine of Pts/GP? Likewise Lucic and his lack of 5v5 scoring in 16-17?

Georgexs

Since 2007, year-over year correlations for Pts/GP have been around 0.8 and for 5v5 P60, it’s been around 0.5.

Last 5 seasons:

Season, 5v5 P60, Pts/GP

2015, .49, .79
2016, .42, .78
2017, .50, .83
2018, .46, .81
2019, .46, .81

These two measures aren’t in the same ballpark.

You’re right. I should stop quoting on-ice results with WOWY. Very little reproducibility. TOI is perhaps useful in seeing the HC’s decision-making. But, given how much shifting around HC’s do with their lineups, WOWY on-ice results are just a record of what’s happened, not a sign of what’s going to happen.

Yeah, individual cases aren’t always going to be right. The Pts/GP correlation isn’t 1. Chiasson was a low-scoring forward who had a career year playing a bigger role and then fell back into low-scoring territory despite continuing to get time on PP1. Lucic was a career top-6 who fell off the scoring cliff after 16-17.

But you’re tallying up these wins for 5v5 P60 in hindsight, without also tallying up the whiffs. If you add up the total score, you’re going to come out way ahead with Pts/GP. Try making these evaluations in real-time for all forwards using the two measures and keep track of your error rates: the mean of the sum of squares of the difference between your prediction and the observed result.

Landmines, there really aren’t that many are there? Just that the data is noisy.

If you’re (the proverbial you) going to use data to guide your thinking, you care about how useful the data is in helping you understand what happened and predict what’s going to happen. Putting faith in noisy data (i.e., measures that have relatively more randomness and less signal, measures that don’t generalize) to shape your understanding and make your predictions is a landmine. In analysis, you’re always searching for predictions that are more accurate and measures that offer more signal, less noise.

I saw your response to RNH and the sampling distribution. If you’re (not the proverbial you) really interested in analysis (and open to correction to use your phrase), you should consider revisiting your work there. You’d potentially learn a lot.

Last edited 1 month ago by Georgexs
Harpers Hair

The Ranger’s whisperer and wannabe GM speaks:

Mollie Walker (@MollieeWalkerr) Tweeted:
Mark Messier on the way the #NYR are currently built: “In my opinion, if you’re going to win, you got to be able to win in the street and the alley. I particularly would not have built the team that didn’t have answers in this regard.” 

That’s a statement.

https://twitter.com/MollieeWalkerr/status/1390038748126195713?s=20

Reja

Could Messier and Mactavish be heading back to N.Y.

N64

poor NYC

Harpers Hair

Adam Graves also works for the team.

Maybe get Lowe and the band will almost be complete.

GordieHoweHatTrick

NYR
interesting

the dismissed personnel say they had no idea of the press release. So who wrote and authorized it? Does not compute.

the dismissal has nothing to do with the press release. One bad luck season and bubye. Does not compute.

N64

Easy to add up .

1. @wyshynski says they knew they were gone.
2. Then Wilson rag dolls some rags
3. Player Unsafety ducks.
4. Dolan decided to blindside Gary.
5. GM found out last and distanced himself.
6. Owner made the distance permanent.

Sounds like events overtook the pending firing

GordieHoweHatTrick

Oh ok!
owner/Dolan issued statement. Did not tell others. Generally in a shitty mood and decided now was as good a time as any to fire his president and gm

Coming in to focus now

N64

a bit more in focus is you pick up the viewfinder the other way. informs gm that he’s walking at the normal exit time. gets in a shitty mood with bettman and dumps on him like a riders fans on a kicker’s lawn. at which point there’s no reason for owner and gm to wait any more for the firing.

Reja

I say Davidson and Gorton didn’t know or agree with the statement and took the fall. The spin doctors have been working overtime since last night.

N64

clearly they didn’t agree. both sides leaking they weren’t even in the loop and statement looks like it.

Reja

The cleaning of house in N.Y is not surprising the statement they released yesterday was way over the top sounded like a Karen released it. People gamble on hockey nobody’s bigger then the league. I expect that the viewership of the Ranger vs Capitals game will be at least double tonight. Kassian’s stock also doubled overnight whining doesn’t help teams have to learn to protect their own.

Last edited 1 month ago by Reja
Side

I think the whining was more over the fact that the NHL teams and players have a department whose entire purpose is to ensure player safety, but doesn’t actually do anything besides dole out inconsistent “punishments”.

I know you like to put on the tough guy, misogynistic act, Reja, but you can’t tell me you agree with the ruling on Wilson. $5000 fine for what he did compared to McDavid getting $5000 fine and a 2 game suspension for a chicken wing?

It doesn’t make any sense to have a “Department of Player Safety” in place, only to wink and whisper to the teams “but we won’t enforce anything relating to player safety so hire some goons and plugs to protect your players”.

The only plus side is that yes, Kassian’s value did increase significantly. Woooo!

Last edited 1 month ago by Side
Reja

I thought Wilson should have been suspended for 3-5 games. When are Oiler fans going to realize Parros hates the Oilers goes back to his playing days. You should listen to the John Scott interview on Sportsnet yesterday wether you like it are not it has a ring of truth to it.

Side

Did John Scott give another interview? I only saw his video where he was saying what Parros and the league did was embarassing and baffling.

Even if Parros did hate the Oilers, that wouldn’t explain the other inconsistent punishments handed out.

Goetisbehere just got a 2 game suspension for boarding Mark Friedman.

If Parros also hates the Flyers then one wonders why the NHL keeps such a biased department head around who seems to hate many teams.

Reja

What Goetisbehere did was nasty almost bordering on Dale Hunter nasty should of been suspended at least 3-5 Games.

Keeper_13

“The rules of the game are only pretend, the game itself is only there as a framing device to provide context for violent behaviour that would be illegal anywhere else. NHL players should know that sociopathic goons can assault them at any moment while we cheer and wave our betting chits. Stop coddling these whiners – who wants to watch a bunch of shrimps like Yamamoto when we could be watching Real Men kill one another for our entertainment?”

N64

@wyshynski 11m
I’ve asked around and around and around, and I’ve gotten the same answer: Rangers’ firing of Gorton and Davidson is not Wilson statement related. It’s performance based, and decision was made before today


Coming in to focus Good or bad they were gone and owner kept them out of the loop to ragdoll Gary.

Harpers Hair

Odd timing to do it with 3 games left in the season.

Keeper_13

If, somehow, this is true, their PR department should have been able to tell them that it would be perceived as related and that no denial would be believed.

Harpers Hair

What I’ve been suggesting for a while.

Under expansion rules, Seattle must select at least $48.9 million under the salary cap. Other teams are thinking they will target the minimum — unless incentivized to do otherwise. That would allow for maximum weaponization of their space.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-tom-wilson-needed-stronger-punishment/

Harpers Hair

I am wondering if this is the offseason where we see offer sheets coming from the Kraken.

N64

Yes.

The whole point to claiming the minimum cap space is to ruthlessly upgrade your top 6 F top 4 D collection. The Mendoza at the bottom of your roster is going to be so high a bar, that you want to laser lock your cap spending on guys that add something in quality or role that you still don’t have. There may be a few spots where they’re very happy to outbid cap-constrained teams, but only where they get strategic upgrades from the selectees.

Nuge and Larrson are both UFAs of interest to Kraken. Fans might think Klef is too risky for Kraken to claim, but they may well roll the dice here and there for upsides. And definitely they will have cap weapons left to pick up the right RFA. With the flat cap they should be hunting for Stanley, not making nice.

Harpers Hair

Yep.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Barrie’s warts on full display in the opening shift. Even coach pointed that out in the media scrum after the game. No need to resign him as Bouch will be fully ready for everyday play at the start of next year. But let’s be clear. He has been a solid signing and has been a positive influence on the defense who are all much more willing to try create offense and exit the d-zone with possession (even Larsson and Rusty). I think he ends up in Seattle as it’s very close to home (Victoria), VAN has a similar player (Hughes) and none of the western contenders (COL, VGN, EDM) will be interested. Great one year signing though and cudos to Holland.

Winning these easy games against VAN is important as it keeps the pressure on TOR to beat MTL in their remaining games. If TOR loses both games to MTL and the Oilers win both against VAN – the Oilers suddenly control their own destiny. Without the Oiler pressure on top spot then TOR just rolls over and lets the Habs take the points so they take 3rd place and play the Oilers. But as long as we keep beating VAN it forces the Leafs to win against MTL. You have to think the Leafs want top spot locked up by the weekend as the Oilers will still have a big say where MTL finishes next week. So if TOR beats MTL this week and WPG gets their shyte together against CGY and OTT. The standings are set by Saturday night.

Boil-in-the-Oil

I’m thinking with another flat-cap season on the horizon, I would bet, around the league, we see an extraordinary number of very short term contracts, at reduced value, offered to a crap load of players. It makes sense some players may just value “winning a cup” vs “getting paid”, more than ever before.

It may also be, that I kinda hope that’s what happens here, with a few desirable contributors (some already in the fold, some who aren’t).

Dustylegnd

Nuge and Hall are 2 prime candidates for discount term and price

DevilsLettuce

Hard time believing he won’t be a Bruin for the next few years in the least.

JimmyV1965

I’ve said it often. This is the one time in history that it makes sense to sign UFAs. However. Nuge will be one of a handful of players who will get paid. Seattle will need a C and Nuge will be tempting.

Dustylegnd

Deep Thoughts with Not So Handy

This run is great, but if the 2nd line doesn’t start to score 5 x 5 we have a playoff problem made in Hell

The biggest problem Evan Bouchard has…this game is way too easy for him…doesn’t even look like he is trying..there are not enough o’s in smooooth for his Stud

Good Lord Yamamoto can not piss a drop, this is a problem…it will come hopefully sooner than later followed by a ridiculous heater

Nuge is having a contract season from Hell (this is an opportunity for Holland)

Larsson is having a contract season from Heaven, adjust forward expectations or suffer the consequence ( buyer beware)

I do not think there is room for Bouchard and Barrie on this team

Love McLeod, but he will eventually need offense, these types take a long time to produce offense…see Chimmer….please management do not make the same mistake again

Kassian is overpaid but we need him vs Montreal and Calgary…and I am NOT SORRY

Edit

Puljujarvi is starting to get really mean out there…he does it with a smile…but he is figuring out he is a physical beast

Last edited 1 month ago by Dustylegnd
90s fan

“Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you are a mile away, and have their shoes.”

J. Handy.

Last edited 1 month ago by 90s fan
JimmyV1965

lol

Greatness

“If you ever drop your keys in lava, man, forget it – they’re gone.”
J. Handy

Harpers Hair

John Davidson to the Flames….who says no?

treevojo

John Davidson?

DevilsLettuce

Who cares?

Reja

Blackballed!

DevilsLettuce
Keeper_13

Very big surprise for me to see a professional hockey writer willing to put their name on praise for Mikko. IMO the only context they missed out on was how it took our team about 9 games to make up for not having a pre-season, and those 9 games were all with Koskinen in net.

Primetime

Wow…NYR fire President and GM (Davidson and Gorton)

NHL runs it’s business like the mafia…..never go against the family

Last edited 1 month ago by Primetime
MADOIL

Wow! Just wow! Hopefully this was not due to the ‘statement’ issued yesterday.

Harpers Hair

Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
Sources say that #NYR president John Davidson and GM Jeff Gorton scurried to distance themselves from the team statement that was issued on Tuesday night, telling other executives that they did not know it was in the works until after it was released.

https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1390015608713097216?s=20

Harpers Hair

Dolan vs. Bettman….should be a good one.

Harpers Hair

Greg Wyshynski

@wyshynski
·
10m

It can’t be stressed enough how quickly, effectively and impressively Jeff Gorton rebuild this Rangers team. This is just … wow.

Dac189

Maybe Vancouver or Calgary can pick him up and he can rebuild their teams

Harpers Hair

I’d be a little worried if I was Jim Benning.

Gorton is the goods.

leadfarmer

I said yesterday. There is no bigger crime than insubordination

Harpers Hair

Rick Carpiniello

@RickCarpiniello
·
1m

Chris Drury is the new Rangers president/GM. Not sure if either title is “interim”

Harpers Hair

JFresh
@JFreshHockey

It’s only fitting that this Rangers season – one of the most unfortunate that I can remember – ends in cleaning house.

55% all situations goals for % including 53% at 5v5, a +25 goal differential, but a 36% points percentage in one goal games and a missed playoff spot.

Harpers Hair

JFresh
@JFreshHockey
· Apr 16
The 2021 New York Rangers have the 2nd-largest gap between their goal differential and standings position of any team since 2007-08.

Based on their goal +/- they’d be expected to have ~56 standings points. They have 46.

David

When I saw the headlines I said out loud to myself, “Um… What?!”

This qualifies as making decisions based on things other than winning right?

Keeper_13

Insert Picard facepalm picture here. What other business could get away with the appearance of impropriety and corruption that the NHL regularly displays? Terrible look for the League and the franchise no matter what the real reasons are. SMH

Fuge Udvar

Oilers points percentage in the 26 games between Bouchard’s start last night and his last game on March 1st: 0.692

And then Bouchard steps in and plays a solid game like that. I don’t see how Holland and Tippett could have managed it any better. Asking for better results than what we are seeing is unreasonable.

I know people were worried that Bouchard wasn’t developing without game action. But I think there is something to be said about keeping a player hungry.

DevilsLettuce

It was kinda jaw dropping watching him seemingly dictate when the passing lanes will open. And then without barely any movement, flick of the wrist and the puck is not a hair width out of place of the intended target.

I want to say he’s a version of a Brian Leetch out there.

Dac189

Yeah but where would Edmonton be without their 9 Ottawa wins?

Currently 51gp 66pts
Brings us down to
42 gp and 48 pts. 0.571%

Which puts Edmonton all the way at the bottom of…
*checks notes*
2nd place in the North Division

Oh my.

DevilsLettuce

Larsson last night, I want to see that everytime he steps on the ice. Make them hurt so much future generations are left dealing with their broken soul grandfathers.

What happened to Grandpapi papa? Well son, a Swedish defender got angry in the corner with him. Never was the same, murmuring something about the gator has his leg.

UnjustEnrichment

While it is impossible not to be in awe of Connor McDavid, his amazing performances always partly blind us to the excellent plays of those around him. Puljujarvi has been doing amazing things just on the edge of your television or computer screen, while Connor is attracting all of the attention (in a good way). McDavid is having so much success not only because of his own exceptional talents, but also because he finally has two to first-rate wingers that do excellent things away from the puck play.

Sierra

The last two games have been great “workman-like” wins. Great job by the Oil.

Role into town, get the job done and collect the points, leave town.

BONE207

Roll into town…

I agree that the team looked to be very much in control & experimental in their play making. I’m not sure these games are how they should approach a playoff game but in game learning about what tricks work & what doesn’t. Some of the tic-tac-toe goals might not work come crunch time but if they do, Oilers have that as a strength over many opponents. That scoring winger can’t arrive soon enough.

Sierra

Oh, man. I’m embarrassed by my spelling. Yuck.

RENNAVATE

30+ Albertans can be vaccinated tomorrow, and ALL Albertans 12+ on Monday. Get vaccinated, y’all!!

And what a game last night. The Oilers are good. Everyone can get vaccinated. What a time to be alive.

dustrock

I tweeted that my one-step program to get 80% of Albertans fully vaccinated is for the province to promise we’d be able to attend Oilers games in person and you’d get a free 50/50 ticket with every jab.

RENNAVATE

You’d get to 99% vaccinated with that program. The 1% would be Flames fans.

Keeper_13

Please run for public office!

tileguy

So 50% of free is umm……..

Harpers Hair

David Staples (@dstaples) Tweeted:
Great news Oilers fans. 

As of Monday, players can get vaccinated if they so desire.

https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/1390002731994152962?s=20

ArmchairGM

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Connor McDavid is now 31-62-93 after 51 games, meaning he’ll need seven points in the next five games. In his last 25 games, the captain is 17-34-51. In the 26 games leading up to that run, McDavid was 14-28-42.

Is this what Supernova looks like?

wolf8888

Outstanding!

Pescador

Uh oh,
I foresee a couple deleted comments followed by a short lecture today

tileguy

A 2 minute read that explains a lot. I encourage everyone to read it.

BONE207

Sing it Cindy Lauper…

Trolls just wanna have fun…🎵

Ice Sage

‘we see his True Colors…’ (blue and green)

DevilsLettuce

“… the associations between sadism and GAIT (Global Assessment of Internet Trolling) scores were so strong that it might be said that online trolls are prototypical everyday sadists.” [emphasis added]

Amazing.

who

Did you read this article?
If you did, how did the author tell you to respond to trolls?
I find it hilarious that the posters who complain about HH continue to respond to him. Hell, when he doesn’t post, they write posts to try and incite him to respond.
Because everyone knows the best way to respond to a childish post is by being equally childish. Right? 🙄

Ice Sage

‘if we didn’t have the devil, we’d have to create him’

DevilsLettuce

Apples and orange fire trucks.

Whaler Slamamoto

Just downvote if it’s legitimate trolling. Then you sort comments by most voted and the biggest turds fall to the bottom.

Sierra

It went quiet for a few days when no one was responding to the troll posts, but then the usual suspects couldn’t help themselves.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sierra
Keeper_13

A few thoughts on the game last night – loved seeing Bouchard in the lineup and love what he did with the opportunity. My “happy Oilers aren’t rushing prospects and have NHL depth” is warring with my “but Bouchard is ready dammit.” Just as we’ve become spoiled by Conner being Conner, we’ve been spoiled by Smith’s puckhandling, dude is one of the best ever. Watched the game with my brother the Canucks fan, neither of us saw the first penalty the refs called on the Oilers in real time or in the replay. Just as he was saying, “don’t worry, refs will call some bs to make up for it,” the ref’s hand went up, and I was laughing so hard I didn’t even see whatever they called. Was impressed with the Canucks compete level given their circumstances. Demko impressed me, but he usually does. Didn’t see what happened to get Larsson so mad, but glad that high elbow he threw missed. Note to self – do not borrow money from Adam Larsson. Enjoyed the game, IMO the outcome was never in doubt, early goal for the Nucks or not. They just don’t have the horses. At my brother’s insistence, we watched video of Quinn Hughes getting fined 5k for a slash, McDavid getting fined 5k for a hit, and Wilson getting fined 5k for… whatever that was. Then him flexing/posturing/whatever in the penalty box… what a goof. Reminds me of Kassian mocking Gagner for getting his jaw broken by Kassian’s careless bush league play. Hilarious to me that Wilson was ejected from the game for taking his jersey off. THAT’S what the refs thought crossed the line. #zebrajustice

m3sh

…. Larsson got mad last night, people shouldn’t oughta do that to him.

You are truly a gem LT…

I might be firmly in the #keepLarssonForever camp as of this season. What a beast.

Harpers Hair

chieftalkingbull (@chieftalkbull) Tweeted:
Wife: how much you pay for whiskey?
Me: about $80 a week
Wife: for how long?
Me: about 40 years
Wife: that’s $166,400.. you could have saved that and bought a plane..
Me: you drink?
Wife: no
Me: where’s your fucking plane?

https://twitter.com/chieftalkbull/status/1389564577361186817?s=20

Reja

Haha kinda like the saying what’s yours is ours but what’s mine is mine.

The Trade Guy

Why doesn’t he know if his wife drinks? Maybe he should drink less.

pts2pndr

Thank you! That made my day!

N64

Road to 100 update: ahead of pace

Tallying all his 5 game runs
71% have 7+ points
49% have 10+ points
So he’s about 3 points closer than coin toss pace.

Litke 94

LT, I absolutely love your admiration for Larsson’s rugged play. It makes me laugh every morning.

Travis Green is a good coach, I think. It was noticeable at the start of last night’s game that he made it a stated point for his team to be deliberate in their zone entries. Pucks in off the glass, soft chips right into the corner, and more of an emphasis on carrying the puck in. Essentially, keeping that puck out of Smith’s hands. When this happens, it leads to trouble for the Oilers on a consistent basis.

As the game went on, and fatigue/other factors crept in, Vancouver started to lean more on the slower, on-the-ice dump-ins that Smith could easily control. This was leading to rapid chances going the other way.

I suspect the Oilers will need to game plan against this approach in the playoffs.

Part of me feels like this is why we had such trouble against the Leafs. They put an emphasis on carrying the puck in and we can’t rely on Smith to help us break the puck out. If we see the Leafs in the postseason, Oilers may need to stack the line more, and play a little bit of trap hockey to force Toronto to make a move in the neutral zone.

This is one aspect of the game I will be watching very intently against Montreal next week.

Litke 94

And when I say trap hockey, I don’t mean a 1-3-1 deployment all game. Just more so the anti-Kris Russell approach. First point of contact has to be at the blue line or before, never after. The Leafs feast with that extra time. Can’t let it happen.

Also, does anyone know of a site that tracks zone entries immediately after a game? I would love to be able to see if the numbers back up what I was watching, or if I am just talking out my ass.

Last edited 1 month ago by Litke 94
pts2pndr

If you get a plexiglass stomach you can even see where you going with your head up your ass. It is highly recommended for new managers!😉

hunter1909

No one seems to want Larsson back yet he’s the perfect type of player for the playoffs.

Then again, Oilers aren’t even in the playoffs enough for many of their fans to understand this concept.

N64

No one? Recent quick +/- poll on Kraken protection here. The majority were willing to gamble on an understanding or a free agency period deal with Larsson or Nuge to protect 1 more D or 3 more forwards. But almost dead even whether to gamble with Larsson or Nuge.

update: there were some comments about signing both early and exposing Klef. Holland will know best the prognosis on Klef. If there is even a 50% chance at a fully restored Klef the Kraken should pounce. Kraken can get as many top 4 as they want. Why not spend a selection on a top 2 upgrade?

Last edited 1 month ago by N64
McNuge93

Not so sure about that, I think a majority would rather have Larsson back vs Barrie. I agree with you, come playoff time having two rugged D like Nurse and Larsson will take its toll on teams. Now, we need to give each of those two a game off down the stretch.

Elgin R

What are you smoking this early? The vast, vast majority of people on this blog want Larsson signed.

hunter1909

Drop dead.

Elgin R

Doubtful just got back from a run while you sit in your basement smoking ganja.

DevilsLettuce

Ganja has nothing to do with being a lazy ass in your basement. You’re either a motivated person or not, plenty of dope smokers out there that would run laps around you.

pts2pndr

Lungs wouldn’t allow it and hard to do stopping for munchies!

Side

It’s comments like this that confuse me when you complain about other people being “sensitive”. That sure escalated quickly. lol

Fuge Udvar

It’s incredible how much people who use the term snowflake and complain about outrage culture are just projecting

pts2pndr

That’s your witty reply? I expected better!😉

Sierra

Seems you are the one who doesn’t understand things

John Chambers

We used to be in this class of the NHL every year
15 Positives for non-playoff teams:
https://theathletic.com/2566668/2021/05/05/down-goes-brown-finding-positive-thoughts-for-the-15-non-playoff-teams/

Got me thinking about how Jack Eichel is the best available player on the trade market …

Harpers Hair

Not very many teams can deal with that cap hit.

LAK is one of them and has the best prospect pool in the league to use as draft capital.

Dont know if Blake is ready to accelerate his rebuild.

John Chambers

It’s hard to imagine there are many teams with both the prospects and cap space to make it happen. Further, Eichel doesn’t want to go to the Ducks or Devils where it’ll be more of the same.

Neal, Koskinen, Broberg, 1st … is a reasonable starting position. I think if you add Ethan Bear there’s a trade.

UnjustEnrichment

I say no to the proposition. You cannot win Stanley Cups with 5 star players and no money to afford a supporting cast. The supporting cast is very important, as we have seen.

John Chambers

I don’t disagree. I wouldn’t be for adding Jack Eichel as a long term piece.

He has 5 years left on his deal. With 97, 29, and 93 all under contract, plus JP and Yam, Eichel would barely fit.

But … the Oilers will get low-cost deals out of Holloway, Lavoie, Benson, and McLeod up front, and Bouchard, Samorukov, and Jones on D. Holland also knows how to find plug and play depth players for value.

I think you trade Eichel with a year remaining on his deal to pay Draisaitl, but for four years I think the money works and the team is the class of the Pacific.

Last edited 1 month ago by John Chambers
UnjustEnrichment

I think such a trade would significantly disrupt the organic growth of the team–the essential internal growth through drafting and developing that allows for the careful grooming of players and building of a winning team. On good teams, players are not shuffled around, or in and out, like plastic chess pieces. Players, when well developed, are properly shaped and prepared for growing within the community of the team on which they will play. The team grows organically, as a community of players, out of a thousand smaller decisions rather than through earth-shattering high-risk trades. Holland and Tippet have been making the smaller moves and decisions, while developing and introducing home-grown players who will fit seamlessly into the larger fabric of the team. I like that approach.

Harpers Hair

Broberg and Bear would likely interest them but I can’t see them taking Neal or Koskinen back without also sending the Oilers some dead money.
They have 6 goaltenders under contract (most injured) and also have 10 draft picks in 2021 so not sure they would find a late round first all that attractive since they currently will receive pick #33.

Bohologo

Possibly apocryphal, but Joni Mitchell liked the cover of her song so much that one night in concert she introduced it with, “I’d like to open with a Nazareth song.

Wonder Llama

I love Joni and Blue is an unquestioned masterpiece. River is my favorite Christmas Carol, Carey makes me want to find the Mermaid Cafe and dance beneath the Matala moon in Crete. But I will choose to believe the validity of this story so I don’t have to feel shame at liking the Nazareth cover.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Top 10 trapped on island album