Home For a Rest

by Lowetide

The Oilers are home for the next week plus a little, as the season ends Saturday afternoon with a home date and the playoffs will start at home a week or so from today.

It should be a chance to take stock, make sure everyone is healthy and heading in the right direction. Edmonton can’t assume a quick exit from the playoffs because winning a round or even two is possible this spring. If you remember 2017 or 2006 or 1990, you know winning a Stanley Cup takes a village.


I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can improve their depth in a trade with the Rangers
  • Lowetide: Ideal Edmonton Oilers lines and pairings for the 2021 NHL playoffs
  • DNB and Jonathan Willis: ‘It’s kind of Gretzky-like’: Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 100-point season puts him in rarified air
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Mike Smith is putting himself in the all-time old-guy goalie conversation with a stunning season at 38
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Adam Larsson playing his best hockey with playoffs on horizon
  • Lowetide: What should the Oilers do to get Kailer Yamamoto back on track?
  • DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi 2.0 is making an impact
  • DNB: What are the Oilers’ pressing questions ahead of the Seattle Kraken expansion draft?
  • Lowetide: Oilers complete April report card
  • DNB: 2nd Hart Trophy is firmly in Connor McDavid’s grasp
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers need to step up down the stretch?
  • Lowetide: A look at the best value contracts on the 2021 Oilers
  • Lowetide: An early look at ideal Oilers’ free-agent targets for the offseason
  • DNB: Re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Free-agency targets? Oilers mailbag


  • Oilers in 2015-16: 21-29-5, 47 points; goal differential -31
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 29-18-8, 66 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-28-4, 50 points; goal differential -27
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 24-26-5, 53 points; goal differential -20
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 29-20-6, 64 points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 35-18-2, 72 points; goal differential +23

Most enjoyable regular season, for me, since the 1980s. I haven’t been this calm since Pronger was defending two-on-ones. If this team does some playoff damage they’re going to be among my favourites of all time.


  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Expected May record: 4-2-2, 10 points in 8 games
  • Actual May record: 6-1-0, 12 points in 7 games

I don’t have much to say about last night, there was some giving from the defense and Mike Smith both scared the hell out of Oilers fans and did the wave all by his lonesome. McDavid is at 1.89 points-per-game for the season, music! Mike Smith’s .923 save percentage is the league’s No. 7 total and best among regulars in the Northern Exposure division. Draisaitl has 83 points for No. 2 on the scoring list, Tyson Barrie leads defensemen in points and Darnell Nurse is second in even-strength points (29) among NHL defensemen, tops in the Blue Northern. A special nod to Adam Larsson, who is an absolute hammer on defense.


My list is based mostly on math, and defensemen take a hit because I don’t trust that the guys at the top will be the best in the group five years from now. They’re harder to predict. One more thing: I’m genuinely trying to find the right range for players who enter draft day with questions surrounding their skating.

In 2015, I had Mathew Barzal No. 8, in 2016 Alex DeBrincat was No. 15, Arthur Kaliyev No. 5 in 2019. The player I have to figure out this year is Mason McTavish. He is going to score a pile of NHL goals, figuring out where he should go is going to be a challenge.

  1. (1) RW Dylan Guenther, Edmonton Oil Kings. Great skater, has pure goal-scoring ability. Shoots right. April 2003.
  2. (2) LW William Eklund, Djurgardens. Exceptional offensive talent already in SHL.
  3. (3) LC Mason McTavish Peterborough PetesHe’s a pure goal scorer, PF’s tools. Reports on skating are mixed.
  4. (4) RD Brandt Clarke Barrie Colts. Puck-moving defenseman with terrific speed and good size (6.01, 185). Feb 2003. 
  5. (5) LW Matthew Beniers, Michigan Wolverines. Two-way center with impressive skill. Plus shot, great passer.
  6. (7) LD Owen Power, Michigan Wolverines. Great skater, terrific two-way ability and a great passer.
  7. (6) LW Kent Johnson, Michigan Wolverines High skill level, impressive numbers, October 2002.
  8. (18) RW Nikita Chibrikov, St. Petersburg Small skill winger can stickhandle in a phone booth. Massive U18’s in Texas.
  9. (8) LD Simon Edvinsson, Vasteras IK Huge (6.05, 207) two-way blue with great mobility.
  10. (10) LD Luke Hughes, U.S. National Development Team Terrific skater with complete range of skills.
  11. (9) LC Zachary Bolduc, Rimouski Oceanic. A fairly complete talent, his offense is the main calling card.
  12. (11) LW Zachary L’Heureux, Halifax Mooseheads Power forward is a streaky scorer, I like his numbers.
  13. (13) LC Francesco Pinelli, Kitchener Rangers  Smart, high skilled center who passes well and has plus speed.
  14. (12) RC Xavier Bourgault, Shawinigan Cataractes There’s just too much offense to ignore.
  15. (14) RW Chaz Lucius, U.S. National Development Team Great shot, high skill, good speed. He could be a steal.
  16. (15) RC Logan Stankoven, Kamloops Blazers 5.07, 165. Demon on the forecheck with plus skills.
  17. (16) G Sebastian Cossa, Edmonton Oil Kings. He’s a giant goaltender had a .941 save percentage this season.
  18. (17) G Jesper Wallstedt, Lulea. 6.03, 214, 22 games and a .908 SP in the SHL.
  19. (19) LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors 6.01, 196. Big PF with plus skill. I expect Tyler Wright likes him.
  20. (20) LW Matt Coronato, Chicago Steel Pure scorer, great release, headed to Harvard.
  21. (21) RW Fabian Lysell, Lulea. Breathtaking skill winger, great release.
  22. (22) RW Oliver Nadeau, Shawinigan Cataractes More bull than beauty, he is effective.
  23. (23) LD Daniil Chayka, CSKA Moscow Two-way defender who will play big minutes wherever he lands. 
  24. (24) LW Brennan Othmann, Flint Firebirds Best first-shot scorer among wingers in the OHL. Skating?
  25. (25) LW Fedor Svechkov, Ladia Togliatti. Smart two-way winger who can push the river.
  26. (26) LC Aatu Raty, Karpat Talented center who struggled in the Liiga but has a solid junio resume.
  27. (27) RC Ryder Korczak, Moose Jaw Warriors A top play-making center in the WHL. Good speed, elusive.
  28. (29) LW Oskar Olausson, HV 71. Skill winger, great hands and 6.02, 181.
  29. (40) RD Corson Ceulmans, Brooks Bandits. Tremendous offensive defenseman, has size, overager.
  30. (30) LW Ayrton Martino, Omaha Lancers Small speedy winger, September 2002.
  31. (31) LW Conner Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds He has good hands/speed, has a sixth sense for offense.
  32. (32) LD Carson Lambos, Winnipeg Ice A big man already (6.01, 200) he is a fine skater. Two-way blue.
  33. (33) RW Chase Stillman, Sudbury Wolves At 5.11, 170 he has plus speed and is effective in all game disciplines.
  34. (34) RW Isak Rosen, Leksands. Speedy playmaker, March 2013. Sixth sense offensively.
  35. (35) LD Olen Zellweger, Everett Silvertips He is undersized (5.09, 165) but very skilled.
  36. (28) LC Brett Harrison, Oshawa Generals A two-way center with good speed. Texas tournament hurt his ranking here.
  37. (36) RW Simon Robertsson, Skelleftea.  Bert’s boy, has a powerful shot. Feb. 2003.
  38. (37) LC Cole Sillinger, Sioux Falls Stampede Dangerous shooter, fine passer. Average skater.
  39. (38) LD Evan Nause, Quebec Remparts Two-way defender is 6.02, 186 and spiking offensively.
  40. (39) RC Connor Lockhart, Erie Otters.  Probably the best skater among draft-eligible forwards in the OHL this year.
  41. (41) LW Alexander Kisakov, Moscow Dynamo  Just 5.10, 141, terrific skill.
  42. (42) LW Sasha Pastujov, USNDTP Plus shot, offensive winger. Average speed.
  43. (43) LW William Stromgren, MoDo  Big skill winger with good wheels.
  44. (NR) RC Riley Kidney, Acadie-Bathurst Titan. Another skill pivot, a good skater.
  45. (NR) LD Stanislav Svozil, Brno. Outstanding outlet passer, patient, impressive with the puck, solid without it.
  46. (44) LC Oliver Kapanen JYP Smart offensive player who drives offense.
  47. (45) LC Wyatt Johnson, Windsor Spitfires Skill center showed second half improvement
  48. (46) RC Justin Robidas, Val d’Or Foreurs. He’s Yvan Cournoyer small, an absolute bullet on skates.
  49. (NR) LD Sean Behrens, USNDTP. Undersized blue is very skilled and makes smart plays with the puck.
  50. (NR) LC Lorenzo Canonica, Shawinigan Cataractes. Another skill center, one of the best skaters in the QMJHL
  51. (47) G Alekesi Kolosov, Minsk. KHL goalie, .911 SP and still a teenager.
  52. (48) RW Samu Tuomaala, Karpat Good shooter, average speed, two-way resume.
  53. (49) RW Prokhor Poltapov, Moscow.  Skilled winger plays NA style. 25 goals in 61 games.
  54. (50) LD Ethan Dal Mastro, Mississauga Steelheads A big, strong shutdown blue with good speed.
  55. (NR) LC Sami Päivärinta, Lukko. Small two-way center, fine playmaker.
  56. (NR) LC Zach Dean, Gatineau Olympiques. He is going in the first round, numbers have him as a second-round pick.
  57. (NR) LD Artyom GrushnikovMoscow. Big shutdown blue, mobile, great passer.
  58. (NR) LD Nolan Allan, Prince Albert Raiders. A big (6.02, 190) D with good speed, lots of skill but the numbers are shy.
  59. (NR) RW Mackie Samoskevich, Chicago (USHL) Speedy skill winger.
  60. (NR) RD Logan Mailloux, Lejon. Big offensive defenseman with a hammer shot.
  61. (NR) LC Cole Huckins, Acadie-Bathurst Titan. He has size, can skate and posted 32 pts in 33 games. May 2003.
  62. (NR)LW Matvei Petrov, Moscow. Big winger (6.02, 178) can score, great shot.
  63. (NR) LD Graham Sward, Spokane Chiefs. He’s 6.02, 169. Physical shutdown blue with mobility.
  64. (NR) LW James Malatesta, Quebec Remparts. Speedy winger is small (5.09) but plays a rugged style.
  65. (NR) LD Vladislav Lukashevich, Yaroslavl. Another shutdown blue, he’s a good skater, good shot.
  66. (NR) LW Viljami Marjala, Quebec Remparts. C-LW is highly skilled and a creative playmaker.
  67. (NR) LW Nikita Buruyanov, St. Petersburg. Small winger, terrific speed and aggressive play.
  68. (NR) LD Aleksi Malinen, JyP. Fantastic skater, skilled, some chaos.
  69. (NR) LC Victor Stjernborg, Vaxjo. Two-way forward, aggressive forechecker, great passer.
  70. (NR) LD Vasily Machulin, Moscow Dynamo (MHL). Good size, dynamic skater, impressive player.
  71. (NR) RD Jack Bar, Chicago Steel. Good size, plus shot, some skill.
  72. (NR) LW Jeremy Wilmer, USNDTP. August 2003, great passer, high skill.
  73. (NR) LC Samuel Helenius, JYP. Huge checking center already in the Liiga.
  74. (NR) LW Tristan Broz, Fargo Force. Nice range of skills, fine passer good skater.
  75. (NR) RC Ryan Winterton, Hamilton Bulldogs. Solid prospect, skilled and September 2003.


Holloway has his entry deal that kicks in this fall and an ATO that will allow him to play tonight. I’ll be watching and am certain others (Wilde, OP) will be chiming in here and or on twitter. I’ll tell you what I saw tomorrow morning in this space.


At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll review yesterday’s game and look forward to the playoffs. At 10:20, Erik Erlendsson from LightningInsider.com talks about an all-Florida playoff series and the chances of a Stanley Cup repeat. At 11, Frank Seravalli of TSN will talk Oilers playoffs, the Adam Larsson contract and TSN’s free-agent list from earlier this week. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!


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I hope Van can pick up a few points here to climb out of the bottom 5 standings. Let’s start koski or stalock, sit out best 5 players, and try to keep another top 5 pick from landing in our division


Did the tracking on the prior game to last night’s after it was determined Holloway was out until the playoffs.

Bakersfield Condors vs San Diego Gulls; May 8th, 2021; first run
Benson – Malone – Marody
Safin – Cracknell – Griffith
Stukel – Hamblin – Brosseau
Esposito – Lavoie

Gravel – Desharnais
Stanton – Kaldis
Gildon – Jaks


44-35 CF-CA
26-17 FF-FA
1-4 GF-GA

5 F’s by Game Score

Hamblin – 1.66

Brosseau – 1.18

Griffith – 0.66
Lavoie – 0.62
Marody – 0.53

D by Fenwick Diff

Gravel – 13-7 (+6)

Stanton – 7-4 (+3)
Kesselring – 8-5 (+3)
Gildon – 5-2 (+3)

Desharnais – 10-8 (+2)
Jaks – 4-2 (+2)

Kaldis – 5-6 (-1)


Matheson is reporting that Larsson will be signed for 4 years around 3.75mil per.

Last edited 4 months ago by Abbeef

Outstanding GMing from KH.

Next up, get something similar with RNH.


I wonder what Chiarelli would have offered? 5×5 with a NMC?


I wish they would seal this after the expansion draft.


why? You would be okay with giving the Krakheads the opportunity to offer Larsson $5M x 5 and maybe even the captaincy? I’m not saying they would, but why leave the door open?

Harpers Hair

Colorado clinches the Presidents Trophy with a 5-1 win over LAK..shots 49-23.

Avs now have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs.


The Blues beat the Wild today.

Harpers Hair

That’s nice.


Tigers beat the Royals.


Tony Ferguson claims Chandler gets the Dana White benefits package.


Are you imagining you work for CNN? Fuck everyone in every other division until the end of Round 1.

Pathetic, to keep on “informing” a rival fan base of your propensity for being perpetually obtuse.

ps: Have been looking for an excuse to use that word “obtuse” forever.

pps: feel free to head on over to here:


Once you make your prediction, please say anything you want. On any topic you feel like. 

Last edited 4 months ago by hunter1909

LT my question for you is how do you rank D given your criteria for forwards? I have followed your rankings for a number of years and your rankings are right there with so called experts while differing on a number of occasions with some wins and some losses as should be expected.


Assuming Larsson is re-signed and Barrie moves on, I wonder if Holland will look at signing Brogan Rafferty to compete with Berglund for 4RD (Kemp and Kesselring won’t be NHL options next season).

Somehow the Benning/Green weren’t able to get Rafferty enough NHL games to keep him from being a Group VI UFA, despite accounts of his readiness for 2nd pairing in the NHL.

Could be a diamond in the rough considering that noted upside!

Bank Shot

Oilers don’t have the kind of scratch to sign a guaranteed Norris winner to a free agent contract.


Please tell me who is a guaranteed Norris winner?


Broken Raptorteeth didn’t play 60 games this year? But we were told to “book it”. Raptorteeth’s #1 fan needs to man up and admit he knows nothing about hockey.


Okay you are now trolling the troll! I’m not sure that’s fair as it’s like going to a gun fight with an unarmed opponent!


In all seriousness, I am all for a staring right side of Bear, Larsson and Bouchard next season but an established 4RD of sort needs to be acquired. A Matt Benning would be great.


I’m hoping Russell is our 7D and can cover right or left no problem.


Don’t sleep on Rafferty in his last year of Calder eligibility!

Harpers Hair

This is an excellent idea.

Since the Oilers don’t trust a 10th overall pick to play defense, they could utilize him as a 4th line winger.



Its tough for rookies on the first year of their ELCs to crack the lineup of legit playoff teams nighly – depth breeds competition and leads to winning teams.

Harpers Hair

Yeah… I’m hoping Cale Makar gets an opportunity to be a regular next season.

I have no idea why Rasmus Sandin is playing so much for the Leafs especially given his late 1st round draft pedigree.

I guess that’s why the Leafs aren’t a legit playoff team.

Bank Shot

Whats this have to do with Rafferty?

You have been wrong so many times its frightening. You’d think you’d just give up instead of being a joke.

Harpers Hair

Check OP’s OP then piss off.


Breaded Rufflesly can even stay at his uncles house.


Hunter1909’s Death March Playoff 2021 

is here:

Please follow the link: 


Here’s all you have to do: 

1 – log in/register

2- predict number of Oilers playoff wins(called points on the home page)

3 – predict the tie breaker(explained on the homepage) 

Its easy!

Go Oilers!


x – Oilers News and Updates
Darren Dreger on Insider Trading: “the sense is Tyson Barrie will test the free agent market”

“He’d very much like to stay in Edmonton, but wants stability, we’re talking a 5-6 year term”

The Oilers so far have no desire on a deal of that length.


And rightfully so.


Dreger is anchoring Barrie’s agent’s bargaining position. NOBODY is signing Barrie for 6 years, unless he is accepting $2.5M per year.


So Torey Krug is a fundamentally different player than Barrie? (worth essentially 3x as much?).

He signed last summer for $6.5M X 7 years.

I’m not suggesting the Oilers should be the team to do it, but I’d be surprised if Barrie doesn’t get 6×6-ish offers this summer.


So to put it in simple terms he wants to play for a team stupid enough to pay him premium dollars for his declining productive years. Does he want a no move clause as well?


All the report said (and Dreger said) is he is looking for stability via term. For all we know he could be willing to take a large AAV cut for that.

Either way, as I have been steadfast in all season long in my opinion, glad to have him for this season but cap allocation and current organization depth at each position leads to moving on and allocating the cap resources elsewhere.


I get the sense Barrie may make Holland an offer he can’t refuse.


Sorry OP it was just a bit earlier another writer had said that Barrie wanted to get PAID. Your post indicated he wanted term. As we both know that is the perfect recipe for an anchor contract!

Chelios is a Dinosaur

This is a non-story. Or did people think Barrie would be signing one-year “show me” contracts forever? Like his own personal pyramid scheme that never pays out? I’m quite impressed with Barrie. Took a chance on himself and did his job. He’ll get term. The $ v Winning calculation is now his to make.


The key point for me is that the Oilers are not interested in contract with big term.


Per Nugent-Bowman, Holloway won’t play for the Condors today through Sunday (the rest of their regular season) as his thumb is still bothering him. The hope is that he can play in their playoffs.


Shame, but he needs to be fully fit!


If anyone had any doubt on if McDavid didn’t take it out of 2nd gear last night see the following (indicating his max speed last night was lower than Turris, Shore and Archie):



Remember last year when we were upset Smith played in front of Koski for game 1?

Man, that was funny

They should play Matlock on Saturday


This makes no sense. Smith was crap and edm lost the series?? Koski was better last yr


My buddy who coaches in detroit told me months ago that Carolina was the toughest team to play against in the central division, (back when they were in 3rd place) Florida is no treat and I’m betting Kucharov and Stammer will be magically healed for game one, this is a murderers row of competition.

The East division is even better than the Central division, not much to pick between those top 4 teams (comment was, the only good thing about being in Central is we are not in the East, would be tough to win many over there)

The insane depth of Vegas is impressive and the insane elite talent and defensive depth of Colorado is a tall task for this Oilers team.

I want to say the Oil need a third line, but really we do not have a 2nd line that can score with any regularity, I have a feeling McDavid is going to get a treatment he really really doesn’t like throughout the playoffs

My bet is Colorado vs who in the hell knows from the East, there are 7 amazing contenders between the East and Central…my Guess is Colorado emerges less beat up and wins the cup

I feel blessed to be back in the playoffs with the privilege of watching a number of very exceptional players on the Oil



The reality is without inter division play there is no way to know what the actual balance is. I recall the playoffs in both Baseball and NFL and how they played out. Just because the writers think it and write it doesn’t make it so! There is no way they can know and their guestimate is only slightly better than the average fan,


My information doesn’t come from writers, it comes from people who have played 600 plus games and currently coach, but what would they know


Seems Detroit has had problems with every team. They also haven’t played a much improved Oiler team this year, I do believe that your info is credible in so far as the teams Detroit has played this year. As an example of a drastic one year difference see Florida Panthers!

Bulging Twine

What does he think about the Mantha – Vrana trade?


The playoff brackets I have seen show the winner of the North playing the winner of the Central. So Tbay, Carolina, or Florida. That’s a tough draw.
The west winner plays the east.


I’m sure they’re not excited about the possibility of playing 97 and 29 either.


Agreed. Purpose of the comment was I had gotten the impression that some people thought that the North winner plays the West. (Colorado or Vegas)


Agreed. I think it’s just maybe the fella that can’t stop juicing himself all over the tide about the man that invented this great game. Joe Sakic.


But but but he has professional people that know these things!


I am pretty sure the 4 division winners are re seeded and then 1 vs 4 .. 2 vs 3

Diamond Dick

According to ESPN, after the second round, the teams will be re-seeded based on their regular season record. Round 3 will have #1 v. #4 and #2 v. #3


This has no relativity given no inter division play. When was this decided and when did it become public knowledge!


There is no “bracket” for the NHL playoffs.

As jtblack mentions, after the 2nd round, the four remaining teams are re-seeded.


Bettman bet on keeping the cup south of the border.

Harpers Hair

An interesting question heading into the playoffs is how having fans in the stands in American markets might effect the outcome.

For example, the Avalanche will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs when they clinch the Presidents Trophy and they have just received approval for 7700 fans in the stands.


At this point, it’s likely the Western Conference final will be played entirely south of the border unless the Canadian government grants the NHL a quarantine exception.

If some of those games are played at a neutral site, it’s possible fans of the American teams could travel to that site while Canadians could not.

Does this provide an advantage to the American teams?


Desperately grasping for anything.


I believe the “Conference Final” match-up will be based on a re-seeding and they have not predetermined the match-ups by division, as there are no conferences this season. Regardless of which division the Canadian team plays against though, most US teams will have some fans in the stands. If the Canadian team does have to play its home games south of the border, which right now seems probable, Canadian fans could travel to the game, if they were willing to put up with a 2-week quarantine on their return.

Unless the Canadian team is vaccinated at least 2 weeks before the Conference Finals start, they could be going down to a fully or close to fully open region, so they may not be thrilled being in any stadium with a lot of fans. Though it has dropped substantially, Colorado is still experiencing 1,300 new cases per day, which is a higher rate per capita than Ontario and only ~ 35% somewhat below the new case rate per capita in Alberta which is at its worst level of new cases since the onset.

Harpers Hair

The CDC announced this morning that fully vaccinated Americans can resume normal activities so it’s likely those venues will see increased attendance.


All North division players are able to get first dose this week. NHL indicated there will likely also be a new policy for the North teams, but are deferring until cross-border series are approved or not possible.


Does anyone know how the Clarence Campbell and Wales tropies will be awarded under this senario. You could possibly have an Eastern team playing for Clarence and vice-versa.


Do they have blinking lights on the puck?


“An interesting question heading into the playoffs is how having fans in the stands in American markets might effect (sic) the outcome.”

Is grammar pedantry off-limits for trolls?


The premise is solid, in my opinion.

I presume most of the US teams meet the 85% fully vaccinated threshold for looser restrictions. The Oilers and the other Canadian teams will not. I think this is a fairly big deal. The restrictions are severe and mentally draining.

Also, home fans in the playoffs is another big deal – US teams will have this. Canadian teams will not.

I’ll worry about this in June – two series to get through first.


All you are doing is trying to stir the pot of discontent. It takes very little skill to do what you do other than a mean spirit!


Hunter1909’s Death March Playoff 2021 

is here:

Please follow the link: 


Here’s all you have to do: 

1 – log in/register

2- predict number of Oilers playoff wins(called points on the home page)

3 – predict the tie breaker(explained on the homepage) 


Last edited 4 months ago by hunter1909

6 days until playoffs baby.

Wed at 7pm!

Game 3 in 4 in Winnipeg will be back to back – note that and the potential for Mikko to play 1. Assuming Smith plays the first few like he has the regular season (generally), I think Tip would play him back to back but we’ll see in 10 days or so.


If they go back to Winnipeg up 2-0 I say you play Mikko. That’s the only spot I play him in, if it’s tied or worse he never sees the net.


On the show, Seravelli advising that Hyman is looking to “get paid”.

We are talking $5.5M (or so) for term.

Yes, I would love Hyman on the Oilers next year but, for a player approaching 30, just can’t get on board with that type of contract.

Lets not forget, Dylan Holloway is a “Hyman type player” – of course, Hyman is Hyman in the hear and now and Holloway will take some time (and there is no surety of becoming that player) but I don’t think it makes sense to commit that type of contract to the player at that age.

Yes, I know, how long can we “wait for the future” and I get that but there does need to be a balance and I do think Holloway will arrive sooner rather than later and arrive with a bullet.


Ya. Hard pass on Hyman for $5.5 mill. We’re better off paying Nuge $7 mill and that’s a gross overpayment. Hyman will get paid because he’s in the centre of the universe.


That price & term is definitely in high/overpay/risky territory. Not sure what my max offer would be. But the good news I read in this is that there is some chance Hyman is going to free agency.

For this off-season, Seattle is going to bring $60-80M additional dollars into the market. Which would be like adding $2-2.5M to the cap limit (while also adding demand for 23 more roster players). There is likely going to be some inflation.


I would agree but flat cap for the next 3-5 years says inflation is going to be minimal.


I know people get tired of hearing that HH is right but he is right on UFA’s that to the extent that they are focused on ‘getting paid’ there is no team that can afford to compete with Seattle this summer. If Hyman wants the money over any other consideration that is probably where he ends up.

And for me it is term even more so than money. I am not giving out 5 year contracts to 30 year olds.

Harpers Hair

With that crack analytics team in Seattle, I expect the Kraken will agree with your point.

News out of Buffalo today that Sam Reinhardt wants to play on the west coast.

Thats the kind of opportunity I think Seattle will exploit.


Seattle can afford overpays of money if they can limit term. I would expect that the success in Vegas will have some impact on their decisions that are not exclusively based upon long term.

And, yeah, Buffalo is the new Edmonton. 😉

Last edited 4 months ago by defmn

Seattle has a blank slate.

If they want to use that to overpay free agents in AAV and Term, I will be happy to have them in the same division as the Oilers.

I keep hearing about teams getting in trouble on July 1 when GMs can’t help themselves and now I hear about the Kraken having the opportunity to overpay multiple free agents.

Lots of organizations with “crack analytic teams” with little on-ice success – the famous Tyler Dellow, not leading to cup wins in Jersey!

90s fan

“Krak analytics team” I see what you did there….


While there is truth to what HH says, cap hell we become a reality for the Kraken in short order if value doesn’t come with money spent!


All players going UFA are looking to get paid! If that were not the case they would not be UFA’s. The question is what is available and is the player willing to move for dollars offered to the team that makes the best offer.


Lol, pretty sure I was the only guy here saying he was going to get more than $4.5M and took a little heat for that stand.

Not for a moment did I think Hyman was a legit target for our budget.


If it is not prohibited to say or a state secret what tier is Edmonton listed in?

Harpers Hair

8th in Tier 2 with a rating of 2.4

Colorado and Vegas top the charts in Tier 1 with a rating of 1, with Carolina being the only other Tier 1 team with a rating of 1.3


Thanks. Not sure exactly what those numbers refer to but it gives me an idea.

Very difficult, imo, to compare the teams this year given the lack of play outside of divisions.

Harpers Hair

Average rankings by a team executive, a coach, a scout and a player.

Hardly scientific but an indication of how the teams stack up.

The consensus was the North Division was weak.


So not an indication at all, imagine opinions on such a matter will change when they actually have to get on the ice with McDavid.

All the stats suggest the North is no different then any other division, its easier to follow false narratives then to actually build your own opinion.

Anything to discredit the Oilers success.


Does that make the Nucks the worst team in the league?


Small sample size! Not really worth the ink used to put it in writing!
It is a lot like all things you post! Back under your bridge troll!


As noted in the title this is merely the opinions of 5 individuals 4 of whom are anonymous. Leading with your statement “The playoff tiers” as if this 5 person poll is definitive grossly overstates the gravitas this ranking should be given. The Oilers are actually tied with the Islanders in this ranking putting them in a tie for 7th in those tiers and 10th overall, which pretty much matches their place in the overall standings. What a revelation.

Harpers Hair

Hardly claimed it was definitive.

So do you think 10 out 16 is good as your post implies?


You introduced it as “the playoff tiers” like it was a statement of fact in your typical passive aggressive manner as opposed to saying here is one small group’s take on things. Their consensus is the North is weak, but without identifying who the 4 are or what division they are from, the credentials are almost meaningless.

My post implied nothing about whether being ranked 10 of 16 was good or not or even accurate for cup prospects. It merely pointed out that your post slightly underrated their position by 1 in the rankings of these 5 people, and that the Oilers ranking in that one poll was no different than their place in the standings. ie. That 5 people most of whom didn’t watch most of the games by a lot of these teams, roughly rated their playoff chances not far off regular season standings isn’t really all that revealing.


Very much like the other vomit you bring to the site!


So – interesting takes. For example I learned that Barkov is the best player in the league – as good or better than McDavid or Matthews. Who knew….


He “literally” carries around 4 other players….. I don’t think that scout knows what “literally” means – perhaps he should be advised of the word “figuratively”.

If Barkov was playing with Drai, he’d equal McDavid…… that is a pretty good player.


Even portable toilets have less shit than you! All the negative adjectives that I can come up with are inadequate to give a description of your character! Even your mother should be embarrassed!


For example I learned that Barkov is the best player in the league

Guess that sheds some light on what division the anonymous person works in. Quite possibly also the team.


LT, why do you have Cossa ahead of Wallstedt? Most other lists I’ve looked at has Wallstedt in the top-10 (some in the top-5) and Cossa in the 15-45 range.


Thanks for that. I was wondering as well.


Interesting, thanks. I’ll be very happy if he is available when the Oilers pick… that and the signing of UFA Linus Ullmark to a reasonable 3-5 year deal would shore up this team’s goaltending for the duration of the McDavid years, leaving Holland and co to focus on everything else.


Not sure if this was posted already but we have a date on Wednesday. All times are Eastern Time Zone.

WPG @ EDM – Wednesday, May 19, 9:00pm
WPG @ EDM – Friday, May 21, 9:00pm
EDM @ WPG – Sunday, May 23, TBD
EDM @ WPG – Monday, May 24, TBD
WPG @ EDM – Wednesday, May 26, TBD*
EDM @ WPG – Friday, May 28, TBD*
WPG @ EDM – Sunday, May 30, TBD*

Last edited 4 months ago by defmn

Excellent -thanks for this.

Is that going to be a beautiful May Long weekend or what?



I wonder if Koskinen gets the start on May 24 due to the back-to-back, or if Smith gets both of them.


I was wondering the same thing. Might depend on who’s up in the series and by how much. A lengthy overtime game May 23 might come into play in deciding as well.


Unless Smith falls flat on his face there’s next to zero chance Koskinen gets a start in the playoffs.


Resting a starting goaler in the playoffs would make about as much sense as MacT rotating the bench goalers during the Finals.

Last edited 4 months ago by N64
90s fan

Ugh. Dont remind me.

But have we ever had back to back playoff games before? Is there not data to suggest the fresh goalie wins more often on the back end of a back to back?

I guess the other question is: is your backup goalie any good?


I don’t think that zero chance it necessarily true now that we know there will be back to backs on the road.


Thanks! That’s a great sked for me.


Interesting stat from NaturalStatTrick

McDavid overall: 3.54 5v5 P/60
McDavid with Barrie: 3.35 5v5 P/60
McDavid w/o Barrie: 3.84 5v5 P/60

If Barrie had never been signed and was replaced by Bouchard at both EV strength and on the PP, how many points do you see McDavid having this season? I think a little higher than 104.

90s fan

McD with Barrie and Nurse: 4.61 GF/60 5v5 (480 min)
With Barrie, w/o Nurse: 0.82 GF/60 5v5. (70min)
With Nurse, w/o Barrie: 4.32 GF/60 5v5. (180 min)

**Natural Stat Trick

I don’t really get why Barrie’s numbers without Nurse are so low. (PS it’s only 70 min worth of data so could it just be sample size, or situational that causes it to be so low?)

PPS Barrie w/o McD and w/o Nurse is 1.61 GF/60 5v5. He does better without MCD and Nurse, then just without Nurse. Truly bizzare. (149 min)

Last edited 4 months ago by 90s fan

Could just as easily be 10 points less as well, kinda have a hard time believing Bouchard would come in as a rookie and pop nearly 50 points.

Bouchard is awesome but Barrie was definitely the right move to bring in for the season, asking Bouchard to fill in for Klef is Timid Tambi level of gm’n.


I really wonder about this type of isolation stat. It appears the coach is trying to get the most shift minutes with a consistent 5 man unit;

1.for the top three lines
2.PP 1(with a 39/18 switch at the mid point)

No player not McDavid, Messi, Jordan, Gretzky, Brady does it alone.

McDavid is consistently playing with better players – “His” 5 man unit are all having a career year – Driasaitl, Puljarjarvi, Nurse, Barrie and arguable Smith.

Barrie and Smith are the best RHD and goalie he has played with that will help him produce points.

With some license (please) his prior 5/6 player units have been

2019 – Neal, MaDavd, Kassian, Nurse, Bear, Koskinen
2018 – Hopkins, MacDavid, Rattie, Klefbolm, Larsson, Talbot
2017 -Maroon, MacDavid, “Strome??”, Klefbolm, Larsson, Talbot
2016 – Lucic-McDavid, Eberle, Klefbolm, Larsson, Talbot

90s fan

I agree.

It seems in every business the poeple who collect and use stats will argue about what the stats are saying, how reliable they are, how to improve, or even if it’s the best data set to use.

I am a math teacher in charge of data at my school. We collect and use more extensive data then maybe any other calgary school when it comes to math. For every kid and every cohort, a data set can be found for a series of connected outcomes for those students for the 5 years at our school. It tells a story. But the why, and now what, are often more difficult questions.

Now imagine if every kids success is directly impacted by the students next to them? Such as a hockey team? Man. I’m just saying its complex.


As it has ever been judgement is the key. Sometimes the data clarifies & sometimes it obscures.


One more thing: I’m genuinely trying to find the right range for players who enter draft day with questions surrounding their skating.

I am too, after this Jason Robertson season.

Three quick things up front:

1) I was in on the Russian before Texas! Let it be known!

2) Gonna be tracking the Holloway game tonight, but the results will probably be posted around midnight mountain time because I’m yanking video from multiple players too.

3) This is probably my favourite Oilers team. Needs more Klefbom and Sekera, but Puljujärvi making so many of my least favourite Oilers fanbase contingencies eat a mountain range of shit, chin riding the dirt for miles, makes up for it.

I mentioned this to WG recently, but this summer is giving me the exact nervous energy I had in 2015. I don’t think there’s another team in the middle of the pack like we are that has the potential to become an absolute juggernaut in one off-season.

An absurd amount of cap space, with the only pending raises either expendable (Barrie), having salary-limiting years (Nuge, Yamamoto, Kahun), or just having their skill-set underrated in contract negotiations (Larsson, Kulikov).

The key weakness of the team (97/29-off 5-on-5) having two possible huge ELCs (Holloway and McLeod) and the cap space to buy both a serious LW to fill a spot next to 97-13 and a lethal down-lineup weapon to tear into other team’s depth.

Holland just needs to seriously consider bringing in help identifying pro forwards. They’re now officially (unless there’s a big last game) going to have a worse goal differential per hour during that weak spot than in his first year.

Remember when I posted about the amount of goals the Oilers could get if they had a league-average bottom-six scoring rate? They’re now set to have the same goals-scored-per-hour rate as 2019-20 and worse against rate. If they went even, they’d be in the top league cohort at 5-on-5 with Colorado, Vegas and Toronto. Combine that with special teams we have, and… I don’t want to say it, but you know.

Other teams spent less this year for their miles-better results than the Oilers will have available to spend this summer, and about the same as they had available for this season. This cap space will not be the opportunity it can be unless there is a change made to the group that has been assessing players and staffing these minutes of ice-time.

This combination of incredible draft capital returns (Puljujärvi, Yamamoto, Bear, Jones, and in my opinion McLeod and Bouchard) accompanying an incomparable top end cannot be wasted. Time’s up.


Sorry, I should remember not to compartmentalise my points and put more emphasis onto the McLeod thing. One difference between some of the winning teams’ forward groups and the Oilers’ over the years is that a ton of them paid real acq-cost on their non-top-six centre, and salaried them, or both.

WSH’s Eller got bought with two 2nds, then extended for 3.5M/years, PIT spent a 2nd/two 4ths in a complex trade to land McCann, BOS’s Smith for 3.1M/years (I know their lineup has been compacted since), etc, compared to the like one time that we did spend (Eberle for Strome) being reversed soon after and never well-supported.

That meant that a chunk of that nearly-30M in cap space was going to have to go to one of these guys like Bonino or whatever. McLeod solving that on an ELC? That almost buys a serious Donskoi/Burakovsky-type bet on its own. Hilarious.


Such a good post.

in regards to assessing talent – yes, a change here is needed. So many depth players around that came in and made a difference for other clubs. Last season Holland’s first theee signings were Nygard, Haas, P Russel.

They cannot afford to get this wrong, perhaps some dollars spend on talent assessment is the key.


The better depth UFA’s have a tendency to accept offers from clubs they think have a chance to compete for the cup so it isn’t always the team that doesn’t know who to pursue.

In a capped league there is only so much money that a team can spend on the non core pieces so that is rarely the incentive in attracting those guys. The trick is to get into the conversation as a potential Cup contender so that their agents can present the team as a good fit.

I think we are finally there this summer.


I think that while what you say is true to a degree it has been used as an excuse for bad choices. There have been better players signed later and for less money in almost all occasions. The pro scouting since the Glen Sather era have been less stellar.


Yeah, I don’t disagree with that but it is true of pretty much every team & we always don’t know if it was the team or the player.

I would bet that during the Lowe-MacTavish-Chiarelli years there were agents out there who told their clients to avoid Edmonton like the plague. Even Holland’s first year with his reputation I wouldn’t be surprised if there was still a stink on the team.

So, yeah, there have undoubtedly been misses & mistakes but I think every team has a list of those. Winning tends to cause them to be glossed over – Turris has been bad but our season has allowed that to be less than an obsession – and losing exacerbates their importance.


Those signings were early but they didn’t limit any other signings that came later (such as Kahun, for example). All three of those players listed count $0 aginst the cap when on the taxi squad and two of them spend most of the year on the taxi squad and the other provided a serviceable 4C while Khaira was hurt (and before McLeod arrived).


Holland just needs to seriously consider bringing in help identifying pro forwards.

Pro scouting has let us down for a long time.

Any idea of quality scouts who’ve been recently let go from other teams, or up and comers that are a bit off the radar?


It’s a meme point to make, but they honestly just need to have an “””””””analytics”””””””” department that they’ll listen to, and some video/ex-coaching guys who can make creative plays on players that are flawed or underused, in collaboration with the coaching staff.

Honestly a GM change overall (Holland can stay as POHO if one desires) would be what’s needed considering the history of his guys and the ones that remain.


…perhaps Gordon comes in to GM and Dutch is POHO… we can hope, but I doubt it.


While I agree about analytics it still comes down to having the right people to interpret the data. In some ways it is not that different to pro scouting. The correct interpretation of the data visual or from data are what drives success!

90s fan

100% agree.


Your statement quality of scouts that have been recently let go by other teams. Normally success scouts would not be released. One might like to look at scouts who have voluntarily left their previous teams. How would you determine up and comers.


Well said.

Pro scouting needs a win here.

Big Summer. Big….


Every thing you say is right, but I think one area where we could be vulnerable next year is goaltending. Really good this year but we have a 39 year old plus a goaler that hasnt ever really proven he can take the number 1 job and run with it for any length of time. Absolutely need to solve this problem that isnt currently a problem.


Number one priority imo. Thinking Smith will have another year like this year is really playing with fire & I was one of the few here who didn’t see him coming back this season as a total disaster.

Take the win and move on. Do not expect he can repeat.


Without a doubt. I do little homework on goaltending, so I yield to those who do. It’s tough thinking about what the team is if Smith has a predictable season.


The difficulty is that goal tending does not seem to be easily sussed out. The same goalie can be lights out one year and unable to stop a beach ball the next year. I believe we use the term Voodoo!


Tying anything about the summer of 2015 to Holland is wild.


On pro scouting: The Oilers did sign the UFA with the most points this season on a new team.

Of course, some/many think that the current team would be better without that player.

Yes, I post this with tongue in cheek and can clearly acknowledge pro scouting issues over the years.


The Kulikov pickup is also good. It’s why I mentioned specifically pro forwards.


Oh buddy you don’t want me to actually start doing Holland-to-Chiarelli comparisons in the areas I highlighted in my post if you’re already so sensitive to something like that that you already invented me doing it from the jump, with nothing.

90s fan

You got me curious. Do they compare in any way? Not to my eye…


The 2018-19 Edmonton Oilers, McDavid/Draisaitl off the ice, at 5-on-5:

Goals-for: 1.49
Goals-against: 2.11
Difference: -0.62

The 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers, McDavid/Draisaitl off the ice. at 5-on-5:

Goals-for: 1.47
Goals-against: 2.44
Difference: -0.97

The 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers, McDavid/Draisaitl off the ice, at 5-on-5:

Goals-for: 1.46
Goals-against: 2.56
Difference: -1.10



There are other data points, such as team victories, team placement in the standings, team goal differential, etc. that, in my opinion, are the most important data points.

One thing Dave Tippett and his staff have done, with the players Holland has brought in, is created a high end PK and a high end PP which are leading to team success. The PP had “the big 3” prior to the new coach and GM and was not where it is today and the PK was awful, until the new regime was put in place.

Not all team success is simply because “McDavid and Drai are better”.

Quantify the team’s ability to lock down leads in the 3rd periods this year.


Do you mean to imply that I don’t know that the team is winning more than it did in 2018-19? Because that’s about how thin this point is.

I believe that shoring up the team’s greatest weak point, where it is furthest from league averages of the past 14 seasons, where there are the least structural impediments to it becoming better, is the most critical objective that lay between this team and the Stanley Cup. It’s also, in my opinion, the most outstanding part of the team, in that if you looked at your average 0.655 PT% team, this differential would be the unique attribute among that group. If you don’t care about any of that, that’s fine.

Finally, with all due respect, there is literally nothing to discuss with anyone doing thought-killing “look at the standings” sloganeering. Skip my posts if you don’t want to read critical analysis of a winning team.


Nope, not implying at all that you aren’t aware the team is winning more.

I just know that you have a targeted mission to prove Holland’s incompetence (you stated your objective in that regard on twitter) and have chosen a particular game state and stat that has not improved as evidence.

There is disregard of improvements in many other areas of the game that have led to the most important thing – the team improving in overall performance, year over year.

Feel free not to engage in an argument based on wins but I would posit there is much data showing improvement in various game states leading to more wins if one was to look at that side of the equation. PK being one of various.


What’s the plan, then? Third time’s the charm? Hopefully this doesn’t cost them 22 goals/56 games next year and take a team that could be top-3 to 8th-12th? Will it be fair criticise it the third time in a row it happens, to call for a change in whoever’s responsible for this area?

It’s hilarious what you’re implying you want from me here: to performatively praise Holland for whatever you think he’s done right, or else I shouldn’t update people on a specific area I called my shot on before the season started because it isn’t holistic or whatever. Don’t care; and it’s not a real counterpoint to my critique to mention various things outside of its stated scope. Literally just “look at the standings” – even if you deny it.

You were right to stay blasé on the different game-states, by the way. Once you get into more detail you find out it’s mostly Tippett’s crew and Chiarelli players outside… Archibald, and a bit of Haas.Tons of guys eating shit at 5-on-5 who are doing nothing on specials like Kassian and Turris, Koekkoek, Shore.


Fewer minutes without one of them on the ice, I would think, with them each centering their own line for most of the season so less damage in that scenario.

Still, lots of room for improvement.


Very much looking like Kucherov returning for the playoffs – on the top PP unit at practice, etc.

The league has said they will be looking into/investigating all these types of situations, that is, where a player is, all of a sudden, ready to come off of LTIR for the playoffs when there is no salary cap.

Don’t get me wrong, even if the timing is a bit fortuitous, not having a Hart caliber forward all year is a blow to any team, even one that is able to sustain the loss and still be a top team.

I don’t think this was totally cap maneuvering, etc. and I don’t think anything will come of this but I do hope the league does what they said an look in to it with vigor.

Imagine having a healthy and rested (although rusty) Klefbom for game 1?

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Black Hawks did the same thing with Kane a few years ago. I’m sure someone here can fill me in on the logic behind not having a salary cap in the playoffs, but this seems like a loophole that is easy to fix.


I suspect there is a little gamesmanship that occurs but I’d rather have a player at game speed entering the playoffs

Coming off a lengthy IR is a challenge at any point in the season, let alone the playoffs

I really can’t imagine any superstar would agree to this either


I feel like if this was the Oilers pulling this, there would be an immediate rule change or we would have to pay a second round draft choice, then everyone else would be clear to do the same thing after.


I think I’ve been looking forward to this Condors game tonight more than I am tomorrow’s game – well, not quite, but close.

Woody has mentioned he was thinking about Holloway between Benson and Maordy. I wonder about the PP (I wouldn’t count on early PP1 time given Woody’s history of leaning on Malone, Griffith, Cracknell, etc. on the PP).

The issue: Damn 8pm start time (and, Saturday, it starts 30 minutes after the Oilers’ game – we’ll manage.


With the Oilers picking 32, which of those LW/RW in range should we pick!


Curious who LT (and the group) thinks are likely candidates from the above list to:
— rise
— fall
— outperform their draft spot