NHL Equivalencies offer interesting look at Oilers future

by Lowetide
Linus Omark photo by Rob Ferguson

If NHLE had universal acceptance, Linus Omark would have been in the NHL opening night 2009-10. His enormous 2008-09 SHL season (at that time Sweden’s best league was called the SEL) delivered an NHL equivalency of 50.7, one of the highest this century for an Oilers prospect. That would have given Omark a full year to establish himself ahead of incoming left-wingers Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi.

How many kids bubbling under have strong enough equivalency numbers to be considered for next year’s NHL team? You’ll be surprised. I generally used 30 points NHLE as the line in the sand. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

  • New Lowetide: Adam Larsson contract talks give us a glimpse into Oilers’ offseason plans
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can improve their depth in a trade with the Rangers
  • Lowetide: Ideal Edmonton Oilers lines and pairings for the 2021 NHL playoffs
  • DNB and Jonathan Willis: ‘It’s kind of Gretzky-like’: Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 100-point season puts him in rarified air
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ Mike Smith is putting himself in the all-time old-guy goalie conversation with a stunning season at 38
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Adam Larsson playing his best hockey with playoffs on horizon
  • Lowetide: What should the Oilers do to get Kailer Yamamoto back on track?
  • DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi 2.0 is making an impact
  • DNB: What are the Oilers’ pressing questions ahead of the Seattle Kraken expansion draft?
  • Lowetide: Oilers complete April report card
  • DNB: 2nd Hart Trophy is firmly in Connor McDavid’s grasp
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers need to step up down the stretch?
  • Lowetide: A look at the best value contracts on the 2021 Oilers
  • Lowetide: An early look at ideal Oilers’ free-agent targets for the offseason
  • DNB: Re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Free-agency targets? Oilers mailbag

DYLAN HOLLOWAY (41.6)

A massive step forward in his sophomore Big-10 season earned him an NHL contract and possibly a fast track to the NHL beginning in the fall. I expect the Oilers will re-sign Nuge and add a scoring LW as well, but Holloway is a strong option in case Edmonton is unable to score in free agency.

RYAN MCLEOD (39.9)

No one knows for sure, but McLeod sure looks like a guy who is going to be a successful top-nine center based on his first 10 games. Points haven’t come (just one assist) but he spiked year over year in the AHL and gets to so many loose pucks in all three zones I expect the points will come.

TYLER BENSON (39.9)

He has delivered another strong season and I expect we’ll see Benson as a bottom-six forward in the NHL next year. There’s a small chance Seattle grabs him, but I think he’ll be on LW with McLeod or Khaira opening night 2021-22.

COOPER MARODY (36.6)

Marody is well above the 30-point cutline but has also been moved to right wing for much of the season (Ryan McLeod passed him as a pivot). So despite a quality year, he doesn’t really have a path to the NHL.

KIRILL MAKSIMOV (33.7)

The great thing about NHLE is that it doesn’t care about bias, it just delivers the math. Now, Maksimov’s numbers were delivered in the VHL, Russia’s second pro league. There is an NHLE number for it and Maksimov’s performance gets him here. We’ll see where he lands and how well he does in the year to come. I can’t find a list of players who have jumped to the Super League, so the NHLE translation number isn’t as strong as (say) the KHL, SHL or AHL.

CARTER SAVOIE (30.0)

Another draft pick forward scores in college hockey out of the box. Savoie’s goal-scoring for the Denver Pioneers equates to 19.5 per 82 games in the NHL and makes him one of best scoring prospects in the system. Likely another college season from signing, he could be a perfect fit in Edmonton.

RAPHAEL LAVOIE (26.0)

He scored well in the Allsvenskan (13.3 goals per 82 games NHLE) and had early AHL success but has since slowed. An unusual but encouraging season, I’d guess a full season with the Condors is in order. He remains a scoring threat with a release that can be beat goalies clean in every league he’s played in.

MATEJ BLUMEL (23.3)

A strong season in the Czech league, that included legit usage in all three game states, has Blumel looking like a real NHL prospect again. NHLE for goals (12.4) has him at the low end of a list of scoring forward prospects that includes all names above him.

EVAN BOUCHARD (21.9)

The most obviously talented offensive defenseman drafted by the club since Paul Coffey, Edmonton’s delay in deploying him has outraged countless Oilers fans. He’ll be in the lineup this fall and I expect power-play time will follow shortly after.

MAXIM BENEZHKIN (20.2)

Two-way Russian center with enough offense to be considered a possible solution in a depth role down the line. He still hasn’t played in the KHL as a regular but is just 20 and has had a couple of cups of coffee.

MAXIM BEREZKIN (16.5)

He averaged fewer than six minutes a night in the KHL, but scored well enough in the MHL for us to consider him on track as an NHL prospect. At 6,02, 201 he’s another big athlete drafted by Tyler Wright and we’ll see if the hockey is something he can play at highest levels.

THEODOR LENNSTROM (14.7)

The Swede has impressed but will have to deal with the Leftorium if he hangs around in the organization. Ken Holland hired him, that’s his man advantage.

PHILIP BROBERG (14.4)

Big, fast two-way defenseman had an uneven season in Sweden and some injury issues on both sides of the border. I expect it’ll mean starting in Bakersfield and possibly watching Samorukov play in NHL games first, but overall he remains a quality prospect.

DMITRI SAMORUKOV (10.8)

I won’t include all of the names who deliver lower NHLE but in the case of Samorukov he’s more likely than most on this list to play at least some next season. Big, strong bull of a defender with miles of future.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s Friday! We kickstart the weekend at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. At 10:20, Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will answer the question “how far can the Oilers go?” and pick his ultimate playoff broadcast team for the Stanley Cup playoffs. Matthew Iwanyk arrives at 11 to talk Oilers who should rest on Saturday, and major losses for Edmonton’s football team. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. The joint will be rocking!

166 comments
3

You may also like

4.1 13 votes
Article Rating
166 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
maudite

Re: HH and sample sizing

After a 3 game series vs Ottawa – the save percentage of demko skyrocketing up to .909…or in 3 playoff games demko had a save percentage of .970 thus = bestest all time!

Or

Due to Smith having 3 less games (10 games to 13 games) than other starters in west… his s
percentage is not to be factored.

HH you hilariously forfeited any right to, attempt a counter using small sample size, at least for remainder of season. You pushed any logical cachet of those chips you had in early and hard banking on the thatchcouver Canucks. Just can’t be taken remotely serious bringing it up after molesting the concept so blatantly.

Please do continue to try though. It brings an earnest chuckle when it’s coming from you.

Last edited 1 month ago by maudite
hunter1909

Saw Linus Omark in the KHL this morning taking a penalty shot with a flaming hockey stick(he missed)

Harpers Hair

Vancouver now plays 4 games in 5 days with 2 back to backs….an unheard of schedule in the NHL.

However, the silver lining for them is that they could potentially move up to 4th in the draft lottery (Seattle is in 3rd) with a real chance to get the #1 overall pick.

Do you want the Oilers to win tomorrow?

jp

I don’t really care, the Canucks have only been batting about 50% on their recent top 10 picks.

Aquilini had better get that ship steering in the right direction soon though, Pettersson and Hughes may soon ask to get off.

kelvjn

Every team hits tough patches and every sites has their resident troll. There is no need to stoop.

The irony is that over the years the Oilers was THE team that got crap on regarding inept management and stars wanting to jump ship. How times changed.

Last edited 1 month ago by kelvjn
Ice Sage

Yeah, it’s a shame about the Canucks. A real shame.

MushedPeas

Puts me in mind of meaningless, season-ending victories over the Phlegms costing the Oilers: a. Monahan (Nurse turned out alright); b. lottery ticket for Kane (gifted CHI their secret sauce).

This is not that.

Ice Sage

‘Patrick THoreson!!!’ (reflexively shakes fist at nearby tree) … then remembers it’s 2021 and the hockey Gods have since blessed the Oilers…

godot10

Yes. I want the Oilers to win.

Reja

I like the fact that the Oilers are being overlooked and are somewhat underdogs heading into the real season. This is probably Mikey’s last shot at glory and were only going as far as Smith will take us. Smith’s puck handling skills will be even more of advantage as teams tighten up and our D will take less abuse retrieving pucks due to Mikey’s skill. Oilers in 5 against the slumping Jets

MushedPeas

puck handling: series edge or series costing. Let’s hope it’s Shmiddy and not Smith out there this postseason.

Ice Sage

Oilers 9th best bet to win the cup according to moneypuck. there is a gleam

jp

Power Rankings Guru has them 8th:
http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/stanley-cup-odds.php

Of course they have the Avs, Knights and Leafs all about 3X as likely 🤷

Last edited 1 month ago by jp
Harpers Hair

The bookies have them 10th.

1) Colorado +450

2) Vegas +550

3) Toronto +600

—————————-

10) Edmonton +2000

A $100 bet on the Oilers would pay handsomely.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/stanley-cup-odds/

Bling

I’m down, how about you, HH?

If that bet were to cash, your legacy would be cemented!

Harpers Hair

I had five units on Colorado to win the President’s Trophy…cashed that already (but whew that was close) and have a couple more on them to win the Cup.

Are you suggesting you want to make a bet on the Oilers to win the Cup?

OriginalPouzar

Mike McIntyre
@mikemcintyrewpg
Now the matter of the health of Pierre-Luc Dubois and Paul Stastny, who both didn’t finish the game for the #NHLJets. Already without injured Nikolaj Ehlers, and with Andrew Copp and Tucker Poolman held out due to minor ailments, the club can’t afford any other hits.

jtblack

EHLERS is the big wildcard. He stirs their drink.

I think EDM rolls in 5

Harpers Hair

Of note…Blake Wheeler with 3 points tonight after getting 4 last game.

If, and its a big if, he is back on track, he’s a difference maker.

leadfarmer

The points have not been the issue
its the Kyle Turris level defense

Harpers Hair

One would think playing with more intensity would work both ways.

Harpers Hair

Mitchell Clinton (@MitchellClinton) Tweeted:
“They’re both going to be fine, we believe.” Maurice says of Stastny and Dubois, who left tonight’s game with an injury.

He expects them to practice at some point prior to Game 1.

https://twitter.com/MitchellClinton/status/1393398228691918848?s=20

Victoria Oil

The way PLD has played the last dozen games, Winnipeg won’t miss him if he’s out for the series. Ehlers is a completely different story, depending on how much time he misses.

jtblack

If Edm ever had a year where the Stars aligned; This is it. I see Them winning the North.

Handle WPG in 6. TOR in 7.

I hope Kassian comes back for playoffs. To help keep the bees off the Honey.

OriginalPouzar

From my reading between the lines in Tippett’s media avails (when asked about Kass), I don’t think his return is imminent. He’s been skating but not practicing and, when asked, Tip simply talks about ensuring 100% before insertion in to a game.

I don’t think we even know what the injury is – just that he was (is) “week to week”.

jtblack

HH posts enough interesting stuff. If you dont like it just move along; no need to Bully the Troll

defmn

Exactly.

Sierra

Agreed

Spartacus

Piss off. He deserves whatever comments come his way.

defmn

If you think the comments bother HH you really don’t understand him at all.

jp

It’s really interesting that the Oilers are being docked by many for their performance in a ‘weak sister’ division, while at the same time the Leafs are viewed as a Cup contender or even favorite for their play in the same division.

Likewise the Avs and Knights are seen as legitimately dominant for their play in the West.

Seems almost.. biased and unfair.

defmn

I was listening to a journalist the other day explaining how disappointing the North division turned out to be since the consensus before the season began was that the 2nd to 6th spots were all going to be very competitive & the teams tightly bunched.

When that failed to materialize they seemed to gravitate to the idea that the division was weak rather than that Toronto & Edmonton were stronger than predicted. Edmonton losing 3 in a row to Toronto probably put the nail in the coffin for their theory.

Never underestimate the MSM’s tendency to think as a pack.

Harpers Hair

In the case of Toronto it may be that the Leafs led the division wire to wire and handled the Oilers with relative ease. And of course that would be magnified by the Toronto media.

As for Colorado and Vegas they were truly dominant from start to finish having goal differentials of +64 and +67 respectively which pro-rated over 82 games were historical in nature.

And those numbers are dramatically higher than the leaders in other divisions.

People can argue all they want about the relative weaknesses of the divisions but really only the East had a higher proportion of contenders than the other three.

Sierra

East? The division with the Sabres and Devils?

OriginalPouzar

Don’t forget about the flyers – that would be three of the four worst teams in the NHL as far as giving up goals.

The Knights and Avs are the class of the West division but the bottom of that division is just awful – do those teams have such terrible goal differentials because the top teams are that good? Maybe but one could argue that other side just as easily given how horrid ANA and SJ are.

Harpers Hair

Did it ever occur to you that the reason Anaheim and San Jose gave up so many goals is because they played 9 games each against two of the top three teams in goals scored?

By the way, those same two teams were also two of the top three teams in goals allowed.

OriginalPouzar

Did it ever occur to you that the reason they scored so many goals was because they played 9 games against those bottom-feeder teams?

McDavid has 104 points and ANA scored 126 goals – I should hope their opponents have good GA numbers.

As i said, the argument works both ways.

jp

Obviously a circular argument, isn’t it.

Harpers Hair

The Rangers went .536 with a +20 goal differential and finished 5th in the East.

They would have easily made the playoffs in the North Division.

Philly went .518 which was better than Calgary, Ottawa and Vancouver.

Sierra

I’ve been thinking the same and was attacked last week for suggesting so.

jp

Yeah, it’s an attractive narrative I guess.

The only unbiased (least biased?) way to compare the divisions is on how their teams fared last season. Not perfect obviously, since teams have made changes, but I don’t think there’s a better way.

If you do that, well here are the results (and I’m disappointed in the internet because I had to do some legwork for this; certainly someone else has done it but I couldn’t find it).

The aggregate Pts% and goal differential (from 19-20) of the 20-21 divisions:
East — .597 +90
North – .542 -23
Central .541 -15
West — .533 -52

The East was (is) a beast. The West is the clear worst division. The North is 2nd in Points%, 3rd in goal differential, really nothing to choose with the Central.

I mean, I don’t think the Oilers are better than the Avs or Vegas or Toronto, but since their slow start the Oil are 2nd in the league (ahead of both Vegas and Toronto). Just sayin’.

It’d be nice not to have folks fabricating reasons why the Oilers aren’t as good as their record.

kelvjn

Surely the points gained from playing the 37 points Buffalo don’t count when the rubber hit the proverbial road?

OriginalPouzar

Doesn’t look like any higher end player is sitting out the TOR/WIN game tonight and even Hellebuyck and Cambell are playing.

Giggleplex

Marner is out for TO

jm363561

Well children it just seems this is the perfect time to share with you some just super wonderful news that I am absolutely sure you will just love to hear. It is, of course, now more than a week since the curiously obsessive Leadfarmer mobilised the mob and demanded that the resident Lowetide troll be lynched. But stunningly no response has been issued by LT Customer Services, and not a puff of copper and blue smoke has appeared from LoweTide Towers so, inde sine dicens, Mr H Hair’s status remains that of a not unwelcome poster – and I mean is that not just super wonderful news or what? This just absolutely means you can now all continue your correspondence with him and keep making all those super duper posts that have absolutely no effect on Mr Hair at all.

Now of course some of the grown ups might tell you not to feed those nasty trolls or that you should go and post on another blog if Mr Hair’s officially approved presence on LoweTide is upsetting you. But, of course sweeties, you all know much better than everyone else don’t you? Of course you do – and I am just absolutely super sure you will all keep writing to Mr Hair. 

So now I can hardly wait for you all to begin making up lots more of those different Boris Raffonovich names which  are so totally  clever and amusing they leave me just totally lost for words. And, of course,  I am sure you will all love being able to continue posting about rubber hitting the road, points against Ottawa not counting, maths blog, and so on, and so on, and so on, and I am just absolutely super certain these will be just as funny now as they were months and months and months ago and that, as always, they will bring tears to my eyes.

And sweeties, I really just absolutely have to say that you are all just so absolutely adorable and caring that .. sniff .. even when Mr Hair does not post  .. sniff .. you still care enough to post about him even in his absence .. sob. Forgive me .. sob .. but I just find it very difficult to quite put into words how I feel about this. 

Now some of you little rascals do sometimes go a teensy bit too far in teasing Mr Hair so I think that maybe we have to just dial back a teensy bit on the whole “vacuous, malodorous, toffee nosed pervert”, “spineless worm”, “captain fucking gaslighter” thing …. hahaha ….. of course I am only joking. You absolutely should all post in the manner you think is appropriate for our cool, classy, civilised and much loved blog. So sweeties, if you think, for some inexplicable reason, that “circumcising a wolverine” are les mots juste then absolutely just post them. I mean let’s face it, if you are not allowed to post whatever juvenile crap you want on LoweTide you might all choose to go and post instead on Oilers Nation … and just think how the grown ups would react to that!

Dac189

Well now you’ve taken part in the complaining by complaining about people complaining about the troll.

And then here I am, complaining about people complaining about people complaining about the troll.

Side

Boris Raffonovich “

Ha! Good one.

N64

LT sure knows what he’s doing. Even his pet troll generates traffic. In the end all bugs that cannot be eradicated become product features.

Bill

Duly noted Boss

As for circumcising a wolverine, don’t knock it until you’ve tried it. Gets ye olde adrenaline pumping 😉

Harpers Hair

Some talk today about the 1st overall pick.

Owen Power will be playing for Canada at the World Hockey Championships and will have a chance to showcase himself.

Side

Some people talked about the 1st overall pick and a player may be able to showcase himself at a World tournament? Riveting stuff. This is the kind of insight people come to a math blog for.

Harpers Hair

Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) Tweeted:
Sources tell @mattsekeres they believe Benning will not be back, “Benning is no longer sellable to a large portion of this fan base” #Canucks

https://twitter.com/FarhanLaljiTSN/status/1393329770251751426?s=20

Side

Sir, this is a math blog and all I see is alphabetical garbage in your post.

McNuge93

Thats tooo bad because we really like the job he has done there.

Harpers Hair

How quickly some forget Chiarelli, Lowe and McTavish.

meanashell11

Argofuckyourself

Side

Your insecurity is showing again.

pts2pndr

Go back to your bridge troll.

OriginalPouzar

Maurice on Ehlers (per a Matty article):

“He’s back skating with us now and he’s shooting some pucks. We’ll see where the next five or six days get us to,” said Jets coach Paul Maurice. “I can’t tell you he’s in for sure, and I certainly can’t tell you that he’s not playing in Game 1.

DevilsLettuce
OriginalPouzar

Interestingly, the other day we were provided with information from “one executive, one coach and one scout” that didn’t shine the most favorable light on the Oilers, however, we haven’t been provided with the info from the same predicting the following:

Executive: Oilers in 5
Coach: Oilers in 5
Scout: Oilers in 6
Consensus: Oilers advance.

https://theathletic.com/2588780/2021/05/14/nhl-playoff-predictions-unplugged-anonymous-scout-coach-and-exec-pick-series-winners/

Side

Thank you for including numbers in your post – this is a math blog, afterall.

DevilsLettuce

I’m glad you included the link, one must always remember link inclusion. I have no idea who has written this article as I choose to not click the link but I’m glad this person has been credited with attached link. It’s all very anonymous a good British mystery.

By consensus this series is done by the end of the 1st intermission of game 6. It might go a few periods longer but I like it.

Harpers Hair

Winnipeg and Nashville are the red headed step children in the playoffs this season.

Cant imagine anyone picking them to advance.

OriginalPouzar

Considering Winnipeg is playing the team with the 3rd best record in the NHL since the end of January, its tough to see them win. Of course Connor H.

Harpers Hair

How did they fare on Tuesdays since we’re slicing up the sample size?

pts2pndr

Better than your annual predictions!

OriginalPouzar

85% of the season is a small sample size?

Bling

Sportsnet picked the Jets over Oilers. Anything can happen!

theWaxCollector

LT you’ve got Owen Power #6, I feel that’s appropriate as he slightly reminds me of Nurse a little and the range he was picked.

On a separate note, I had no idea we drafted two Maxim Benbearskins

OriginalPouzar

At practice today:

Oilers lines:
Kahun-McDavid-Puljujarvi
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Nygard-Khaira-Archibald
Neal-Haas-Chiasson
Ennis-Shore-Turris/P. Russell

Nurse-Barrie
Kulikov-Larsson
Koekkoek-Bear

McLeod is not feeling well so kept out out of precaution.

Mikko starts tomorrow.

Koekkoen is in to get him a game but it doesn’t sound like he’ll play game 1 – “we have a good idea of who our top 6 are”.

I don’t think that includes Russell right now as it doesn’t sound like he’ll be ready.

Sounds like it will be Jones for game 1.

Durag

I get the sense Tippet is not going to tip his hand about the lines and pairings for Game 1, but this is not going to be it. I’m betting on McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line as they torched the Jets all year.

Bling

Haas looks like a placeholder for McLeod. Interesting that Nygard is in there.

I’d like to see Ennis. He can be kind of dynamic in that 3rd/4th line role.

OriginalPouzar

I assume that Hass only comes in and plays center if McLeod or Khaira can’t go. He could slide in at RW if there is an injury there.

Nygard was playing quite a bit before his hand flared up. I think Shore is an every day guy in Tippett’s mind and Neal has got his game up to speed so no lineup spot for Nygard now but I could see him being 5LW – don’t think the coach trusts Ennis’ 2-way game completely.

Side
Harpers Hair

No…this is a math blog (or used to be).

That article highlights just how dominant the Avalanche are and can deploy a five man unit with five elite players something that no team can or has in the salary cap era at least.

Perhaps you’re not interested in reality but that’s not my problem.

Side

Pretty sure this is an Oilers blog (the Oilers team logo is on the main page and LT posts about the Oilers, in case you have not noticed) so I am not sure how your parroting of an Athletic article about the Avalanche has any relevance to LT’s thread today.

Besides, the article I posted is math related. Canucks couldn’t be bothered to sign Toffoli. You used to always post stats for Toffoli when he played for the Canucks. Strange.. this topic should appeal to you but now you appear to be getting defensive for some reason.

I wonder why…

Another random article:

https://calgarysun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/flames-lament-missed-opportunities-after-playoff-hopes-end

I’ll hold your hand again by telling you the math part of this article talks about how Calgary was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

DevilsLettuce

The overwhelming Avalanche padded their numbers against the likes of the powerhouse Coyotes, the space jam LA Kings, the Monsta Anaheim Fucks, and not to be forgotten the saw blade san Jose sharks.

average regulation wins if my math adds up correctly and it may not which is why I’m here. For the math. Which is actually awesome when not tainted by the moist hairball. I think it’s 18 regulation wins a team. I think in math terms, 18 regulation wins is fucking awful.

Wasn’t fully aware the west division was half walk on’s this season. Thanks to math now I do, Avalanche is a cold bed of lies!

Sierra

Yup, certain people want to talk about the “weak” Canadian division while ignoring the weaklings in the other divisions. Looking at the divisional standings is very interesting.

winchester

And yet, I thought that Vegas completely out played them.

its tough being the favourite and for whatever reason the favorite never seems to end up with the cup.

Its generally in hindsight writers claim this team had the speed or this team had the heavy players or this team had the depth to win….and the formula gets adjusted every year.

So we wait and see what Colorado is made of.

McNuge93

Maybe post this over on the Canucks blog and get the rest of the Canucks fans to jump on the Avs bandwagon.

Rich M

Hi Art!

pts2pndr

You don’t have the requisite skills to prove you are truly human! You come on this site to make others uncomfortable because that is how you get pleasure. You sir are a closet psychopath but with no balls so you do your thing in anonymity! Your ignorance is exemplified by your questioning of others who hold you in justified contempt!

N64

The underwhelming troll.

New Improved Darkness

Harrumph. This morning David Staples is running a nice piece titled A Stanley Cup is the next order of business for Connor McDavid. But when?.

Nice, but I need to take extreme issue with one small detail. The Oilers did not finish the current season in position 10/31. That’s insanely crackerjack.

The Oilers finished the current season in position 2/7, in a division presumed to be a weak sister by World & Bigger Smoke south of ‘ronta, but isn’t that why we finally play the games?

I’m happy to report that 10/31 is a pure statistical chimera, and that we’re not actually a weak sister—by any objective measure—until we cry “uncle” in the 3rd round.

If we cry “uncle” in the 3rd round.

Remains to be seen.

Jaxon

Yup, 2 of 7 could mean anywhere between 2 of 31 (if the North is the best division) or 26 of 31 (if it’s by far the worst), depending on how well the Northern Division stacks up aginst the others. Most likely, they’re comfortably in the 8 to 16 range, though.

flea

The one advantage the Oilers may have on outside teams is the surprise factor of Connor and Leon. Without playing him much, he may be able to single handedly win G1 or both G1&2

tileguy

Short and to the point, hmmmm, new meds by chance? Thank you for the heads up, I’ll be sure not to read it.

DevilsLettuce

Math has lead me to believe Connor McDavid would of gotten 148pts if he played in the west division.

In the 2020’s the Oilers are 1-1 against the Avalanche with an entire half goal a game higher output.

McDavid has only gotten more generational since their last meeting.

Not mention the sheer dominance that is German magic.

I mean come on.

Oilers take the west in a cake walk.

OriginalPouzar

The east has 3 of the 4 worst teams in the league as far as allowing goals.

The west has ANA and SJ (not to mention LAK and ARI). ANA scored 126 goals this season and McDavid has 104 points, and counting.

I don’t buy arguments that the North is weaker than the rest. Maybe the top tier isn’t as high as another division or two but the bottom is not nearly as bad as at least two other divisions.

Harpers Hair

Are your Iraqi tanks still the best on the planet?

Sierra

moronic

Sierra

exactly, certain people want to talk about the “weak” Canadian division while ignoring the weaklings in the other divisions. Looking at the divisional standings is very interesting.

McSorley33

It won’t happen – but as some have already mentioned – I too would not mind *trialing* a kid line next year of :

Benson – McLeod – Holloway. ( feel free to swap Holloway and McLeod if you desire)

Let them have October and November to see if they can work. Some rookie mistakes for sure….but speed and skill? Yes.

Both McLeod and Holloway are considered good players in their own zone.
( Benson’s next birthday will be his 24th)

For those wanting to swat the idea remember – Kyle Turris has played 27 games for us this year. ( a good chunk of that at 3C)

My two cents is McLeod will surprise to the upside – *if* he has skilled players to play with.

OriginalPouzar

Tough to see any of those three youngsters moved to the right wing given Benson is a LW, McLeod is a C and Holloway is a LW/C. Asking a player breaking in to the league to play a different position doesn’t seem conducive to success.

Not to mention, Jesse, Kailer and Archie locked in to RW spots for next season and Kassian likely as well.

Woodguy v2.0

Vor,

If you are out there.

You totally nailed Necas years before he got to the NHL.

Total piss-cutter.

Well done sir.

Kraz

Miss that guy. Would love to hear what he thinks of this version of the current Oilers and the direction they are going. Him talking about the oilers putting lots of value on player psychology at the draft and drafting high iq, intelligent and loyal players really stuck with me. That was after the oilers drafted Bouchard and McLeod and still seems to be true after they drafted players such as Broberg and Holloway.

ashley

Vor was great. I often don’t have time to read all the comments, and I’m sure I miss a lot of good ones, but I always read every word of Vor’s comments. He had lots of interesting things to say, lots of history from way back, great stories, and was a great writer. I miss him on here.

I recall Vor and LT got in a pretty significant public dust-up here in the comments section, so maybe that was how it ended. That’s the way it goes sometimes. Hopefully he’ll come back some day.

“Steve Smith” and Bookje too. What happened to those guys.

winchester

VOR never wrote a single word the moment Hitchcock signed with the Oilers. It’s not coincidence.

Sierra

I believe he used to post on Riderfans.com. Haven’t seen him there in a while either.

LMHF#1

I should try to track down Steve and bug him. I wonder where he’s gone…imagine the many years of awful combined with life happening just led to other things taking up time.

I wish I had time to go watch and break down every home game still…but just not doable for a good while now.

Ryan

VOR was a total piss-cutter. Just an epic poster.

Yeah, I miss his posts too.

I’ll never forget the time he translated Bear into English.

It was like finding the Rosetta Stone after years of reading jibberish.

Lutefisk

Search google for site:.lowetide ca ror

LMHF#1

After this whole playoff thing is said and done, need your take on where the resources go from here WG (and hopefully some of the others mentioned here). Trying to have discussion about how to get this team rolling down the other side of the mountain is all fits and starts and people thinking you can just stand around holding all your cards and win the game. Doesn’t work that way of course.

The Oilers will be at a big crossroads this off-season.

Munny

He said something about being offered work… on a research project, I think, but also that his health wasn’t great? That’s about the last I kind of sort of remember.

theboyfromsouthdetroit

NHL EQUIVALENCIES OFFER INTERESTING LOOK AT OILERS FUTURE

Oh man, now this is an instant classic LT deep cut lyric.

I was actually at that show in 1954, a thirteen-year-old Bob Dylan absolutely wowed the crowd at Dave’s Grungy Truckstop. When he played this tune, everyone present knew we had something special on our hands. Hardly a dry eye in the joint.

Bohologo

I was there too, and nobody in the audience (or the band) knew that’s what he was playing because as per usual-hey, he’s not a Vegas lounge act, he’s an artist-he played it in the wrong key and changed half the words. As he left the stage he muttered, the pump don’t work ’cause the vandals took the handle, which as everyone knows is Hibbing, MN vernacular for the primacy of statistical data analysis for NHL prospects.

Woogie63

Some NHL teams are being managed poorly by GMs or owners, or are about to decline – does that create an opportunity to fill in the pieces for the Oilers; My Top 4

1.Buffalo – I like Casey Mittelstadt he is looking more like the guy the wanted at the draft each year. Buffalo needs lots of things but lack of defenseman is an issue

2.NYR – Need toughness Pavel Buchevich (3.2Mx1 year RFA) for Kassian + might make sense for both team – NYR would have to make a mistake to do this

3.CBJ – How do we get Laine?

4.PHilly – Nolan Patrick has stalled and is a 3C righted – Philly is looking for RHD

JimmyV1965

Would love to see the Oilers target LW Miles Wood with New Jersey. He scored 17 goals this year, he’s a big power forward who can fly and he’s signed for $2.75 for one more year. Think he becomes a UFA in a couple years. His numbers could be huge playing with a real centre.

There was talk at the beginning of the year that he would be exposed in the draft. That ain’t happening now. Acquisition cost could be pricey. Devils need dmen with size so I think it would start with Samaroukov and a pick. Steep price, but he would be perfect in the top six.

PinkSocks

Completely agree. Miles could play anwhere from 1LW to 4LW and be effective. Might be able to kill two birds with one stone here, such as a Neal, 1st, and a D prospect not starting with a “B”. Add Wood, delete Neal, overall big win despite losing the 1st rounder.

pts2pndr

In no way should Samorukov be included in a trade given the Oilers present situation. His value in two years will have increased exponentially. Moving him now should be a firing offence!

JimmyV1965

At what point do we stop stockpiling prospects and start thinking about the present?

defmn

This summer.

That is one of the reasons I think Barrie gets re-signed by Holland.

We all have our favourite prospects, of course. I love Samorukov’s potential for example.

I love Bear’s success story. I think Jones could be a good one.

I just don’t think Holland cares what I think.

It’s go time.

Munny

I think Sammy will end up looking like Larsson. Good enough skater but not great. Very physical, takes initiative, grinds. Probably won’t bring much offense with him. Skating will be his biggest question mark. If it’s good enough, he has a career. JMHO

defmn

That is what I think as well. I love dmen who go into the corners and always come out with the puck.

And I think his skating is good enough.

Last edited 1 month ago by defmn
Doug McLachlan

The name out of Buffalo that has me most interested is actually Sam Reinhart. Not sure what the package entails but he is just coming into his own (obviously fits nicely into the McDavid-Draisaitl cluster). Five 20+ goal seasons in his last six…man he would look nice on Drai’s line (with apologies to Yamo, but that’s a huge upgrade).

JimmyV1965

We’re okay on the right side. Maybe package Yama and a pick. Ugh. Don’t like it as I write it.

winchester

So NHLE is telling us that there is some internal Cavalry troops arriving.

Three were high potential picks and may live up to elite status. Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg. If these first rounders can deliver high end talent what a difference that would make.

Then some nice suprises hopefully arriving such as Mcleod and others.

Very encouraging, particularly when you consider the Oilers ability to add a good free agent and/or proven acquisition player. ( I did like LT’s piece on trading with the Rangers)

jp

Speaking of goalies, what the heck happened to Carter Hart this season?

Is he a buy-low candidate?

McSorley33

Fell of a cliff. Almost shocking.

I doubt the Flyers give up on him….but you never know.

jp

It is shocking, absolutely.

But he’s just 22 with pedigree and a great track record at multiple levels prior to this year.

Surely there’s a good chance he rebounds. At the same time it’s not guaranteed.

And the Flyers likely won’t give up on him, but his price tag has almost certainly come down a step or three.

Last edited 1 month ago by jp
McSorley33

Oh, I am on your page. I have interest, for sure.

Never hurts to call and enquire…..

Doug McLachlan

Oh he would be such a great get. Apparently this year with the COVID restrictions and isolation was really hard on him (as it has been for so many). I hope that Philly’s impatience gets the better of them and he can shake loose.

jp

Yeah, he’s likely a very good bet, but of course it depends on exactly how much the price has come down.

And there is risk there too, it’s not like he’s guaranteed to pick up where he was 1.5 years ago. Being ‘more affected than most’ by the COVID isolation isn’t a trait teams would be seeking out.

Of course there’s also the element of shit happen/luck/confidence/off year that players go through at all times.

He’d certainly be an interesting get though.

ArmchairGM

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpteam&fd=&td=&tgp=7&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

Looks like the bottom-6 is getting untracked just in time for the playoffs… now we just need Nuge and Yamamoto to kick things into gear and we’re cooking with gas.

Randle McMurphy

Here’s some down time filler.

I think the Oilers will finally ice a kid line in 2021.
Benson McLeod Holloway

Here is my wishlist 10 step program for Ken Holland this summer (somewhat in order of priority)

1) James Neal + 2021 1st anywhere but preferably the Kraken
2) Sign Nuge $6 x 5
3) Resign Adam Larsson $4m x 4
3) Miko Koskinen anywhere with $2m retained (Buffalo or Ottawa)
4) Sign either Linus Ullmark or Chris Dreiger 
5 )Sign Mike Hoffman at 1x4m to play on Connors LW
6) Trade Zach Kassian to the NYR for a 2021 Third Round Pick (they have 2)
7) Sign someone like UFA Brett Ritchie for 1x$1m (fourth line enforcer type)
8) Sign Tyson Barrie $5m x 4 (with no conditions)
9) Resign Kahun 1x$1.2m
10) If the Bruins don’t sign Taylor Hall then scrap #8 above and sign Hall $7m x3

Randle McMurphy

If Hall signs with the Bruins:
Then sign Hoffman $4m x1

Sit on approximately $4m in cap space (This is not a great UFA Year for wingers)
If Hoffman works out resign him 
if not use his $4m + $4m in cap space to sign a better free agent summer 2022

Make a decision at the 2021-22 trade deadline which defensemen to move (to refill depleted draft picks)….. Bear/Barrie/Klefbom….depending on how Bouchard and/or Klefbom are doing.

For the 5 months you have 4RD rotate Bear, Bouchard, Barrie evenly with each guy getting approximately every third game off

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
Elgin R

1) That would be nice
2) and first 3) Yes please
The other 3) It is going to cost something to trade Mikko so just keep him as the back up
4) Does Smith want to play another year?
5) Good for the Oilers
6) Wait and see if we get ‘playoff’ Kassinator back
7) No
8) No, No, NO
9) Sure why not
10) Hell no

koskidaddy

Mike Hoffman is not a good fit with McDavid. Yes, he has a good shot, but most of his production is on the powerplay. He’s not very good offensively at even strength, and a defensive liability.

Tyson Barrie is similar. Impressive power-play offense and decent even-strength offense (although a lot of it was with McDavid time). However, he’s a defensive liability. If I were to rank Barrie, Bear, Larsson, and Bouchard for next season, Barrie would come last.

Randle McMurphy

Ahemmm….Patrick Maroon

You’re buying Hoffman for only $ He scores mostly on the powerplay and yet he’s +3

If he doesnt work out in 2021 you move on to plan B

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
koskidaddy

And waste another year of McDavid if it doesn’t work out?

+/- is not a good stat

Randle McMurphy

# 10 should have read
If the Bruins don’t sign Taylor Hall then scap #8 AND #5 above and sign Hall $7m x3

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
ArmchairGM

Neal can be bought out for just a $1.9M cap penalty. What does $1.9M buy on the free agent market? Not much. Is that player worth a 1st? Usually the answer is No. So a buyout is to be preferred over your proposed trade.

I mean, just look at the Oilers last 3 1st round picks: Holloway, Broberg and Bouchard. You wouldn’t consider using any of them as a kicker to get rid of Neal’s 2-year contract, would you?

Last edited 1 month ago by ArmchairGM
Randle McMurphy

You’re not getting any of thoe guys at 20 to 30 first round.

ArmchairGM

Holloway was #15, so not far off. And with the scouts not getting good looks at all the prospects due to the abnormal year (some leagues cancelling altogether) there’s every chance of getting an equivalent player at #20-30 this year.

pts2pndr

This year not withstanding you would be correct. There will be a number of surprises this year, both good and bad!

JimmyV1965

If they buy out Neil, they can sign someone for $3.8 mill for four years and it makes Neil’s contract a complete wash. This is the price range I think Coleman signs for. So you get Neil for two years or Coleman for four years, or three, or whatever makes sense.

Randle McMurphy

I like your logic on the finances…but….

For the 1st rounder (perhaps #20) You get Neal out of the lineup and $5.75m for the next two years.

I doubt if works out this way…but you may be buying protection from the Kraken expansion draft as well

pts2pndr

First rule of the new NHL should be do not trade a first round pick. They are the new gold standard!

JimmyV1965

If they sign Larsson and Barrie, you have to trade Bear or Bouchard.

defmn

Yup.

Randle McMurphy

Nope. I get thats a popular meme, but

1) Bouchard might not take the next step and have to go back to AHL for a spell.
2) You could move Barrie if you’re willing to piss off his agent/agency
3) If Klefbom quits or fails out you could move Bear for another lefty

The possibilities are many.

You’re buying insurance by pushing the can down the road for one more year.

Tyson Barrie… get good players … keep good players

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
pts2pndr

Why?

Oilman99

Hoffman is a one dimensional player, the McDavid line needs a player with more defensive accountability,they currently give up too many five on five goals.

Randle McMurphy

RNH is defensively responsible. And he’s sub-optimal with McDavid.

Are you willing to pay Hyman $5×5 ?

JP is the defensive conscience on the top line.

Also Connor is developing his defensive game.

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
godot10

Puljujarvi and McDavid will both do a lot of shooting, especially since McDavid knows he has to rack up goals to neutralize the propaganda disembowling out of Underpants Central in Toronto and New York.

McDavid’s LW has to be an all-around winger, not a one dimensional shooter like Hoffman.

DevilsLettuce

Hoffman is awful, he’ll last two shifts with McDavid then Tipps will bench him and he’ll never see the ice again.

The even strength goals against the McDavid line is on the coaches. It’s up to them to devise a plan that stops the bleeding against. And I can guarantee you, Hoffman will never be an answer to that.

The coaches attempt at this plan was to have Nuge play a 3rd defenceman role as a left wing.

Thankfully it looks like they’ve moved away from this and Kahun is much more free to just play regular ass left wing. No extra responsibility, and in turn Nuge is looking much more dynamic not being straddle with always having to defensive minded.

In conclusion Hoffman is awful.

Dac189

I very much do not like #1,3,3,5,6,8,10

OriginalPouzar

My thoughts at this point on a few of those listed:

Holloway – definite chance to make next year’s team but the GM has to go in to the off-season planning on Holloway needing AHL time and ensure he’s got the top 9 LW positions filled. I anticipate he starts 2021/22 in the AHL but he may not finish there.

McLeod – I think he’s an Oiler next season and his AHL days are over. At the same time, I’m not convinced he’ll be able to provide 3C offence next year, or maybe ever. He’s already a legit NHL player with is speed, 2-way accument, responsibility and zone entry ability. He may top out as a 20 point NHL guy and a 4C and that’s fine. Definite chance at 3C going forward. Offence please.

Benson – pencil him in to the middle six LW. He is not a fast train but he’s not Alex Chiasson either and he has high skill and is good board battler.

Maksimov – look for his to spike at the AHL level next season – it will be his 3rd year pro so its time to show something legit in the North American pro game.

Savoie – I watched a lot of Pioneer hockey this season. A great shot and solid offensive IQ. Not a shrinking violet, he battles, but he’s not great in battle – needs to get stronger and likely “fitter” (he didn’t finish shifts great). Most of his offensive success was on the PP but he didn’t get top line offensive minutes most of the season. Al least one more college season.

Blumel – Hoping they sign him and bring him over. He’s trying out for the World Championship team – was a long shot to start but has a chance.

Samorukov – very well could be NHL ready but, given he wasn’t able to finish off the season as a Condor, likely needs to start next season in California. I can see him as the left side Adam Larsson in a couple of years – potential to absolutely spike given the broad range of skills (can skate, can shoot, can pass, has offensive IQ and, of course, an aggressive and elite defender of the zone entry and in-zone defensive game).

Broberg – Like Niemelainen, I think this is a player who’s game may be better suited for the North American ice. Its too bad that he was injured so much this past season as its tough to get a real sense of where he is. Given how he finished the year, I imagine substantial AHL time is required. Its tough to see a player go from 7D in the SHL playoffs to the NHL lineup right away.

Side

Thanks for this, OP.

ArmchairGM

Why do you anticipate Holloway be a LW and the NHL level? From what I understand he has played center (and played it well) at every level and he’s excellent at faceoffs.
Curious.

OriginalPouzar

Why do you anticipate Holloway be a LW and the NHL level? From what I understand he has played center (and played it well) at every level and he’s excellent at faceoffs.

Curious.

Good question. I won’t pigeon-hole him as a LW going forward, he very well could be center on this team going forward (I watched every single one of his games at Wisconsin this season, as a center), however:

1) this team has Connor and Drai as the top two centers going forward (in my opinion) and are grooming McLeod for that 3C role (if he’s able to provide enough offence for it going forward)

2) I think Holloway has a skill set that will be a fabulous complementary winger for McDavid (or Drai) going forward – think Jesse Puljuarvi on the left side (with a better motor and an aggressive battler on the boards, etc.)

3) I don’t see McLeod being a winger in the top 6 which means he will be a center in the bottom 6 (in my opinion)

4) There is no certainty that Lavoie will “make it” as a top 6 scoring winger and, frankly, he needs at least another full year in the AHL, from my viewings. Savoie, etc. are also a ways away, if ever.

ArmchairGM

Benson – pencil him in to the middle six LW.

Benson’s biggest roadblock to getting into the NHL next year is Cap Space. Holland could easily bring back Nugent-Hopkins plus add a guys like Coleman and Hoffman, leaving all the rest of the wingers fighting for the 4th line gig.

defmn

Cap space – or lack of it – could also be Benson’s ticket to the NHL. There are six forward positions on the roster right now making less than $1M. I anticipate there will need to be at least that many next season as well.

TheGreatBigMac

I see our LW next year being
Top 6 LW UFA
Draisiatl | RNH
Kahun
Khaira
–scratch–
Benson
Neal

I would try to sign Derek Ryan and play him at 4C and Khaira on LW. Scores some, decent righty faceoff guy, injury cover for RW, lots of flexibility at C with Khaira, McLeod, and Ryan.

Benson can compete with Kahun and Khaira for a lineup spot and injury next man up.

Shane

It seems like Khaira always plays better at center

Elgin R

The Kraken draft is going to be exciting this summer. Who do they take from each team and why? Do they take an older guys to flip at the deadline for a pick or do they choose a younger guy who will grow with the team. They obvious choice from the Oilers is Jones, and given the Leftorium that may not be a bad thing. However, there will be lots of LD available so Francis may switch it up and take Benson. If the Kraken take Benson then Jones is on the Oilers. If the Kraken take Jones then does Samarukov get the nod at camp?

ArmchairGM

The left side depth chart even without Jones is long. It will be tough sledding for Samorukov to land a top-6 job opening night – if he’s the 4th best LHD he’ll likely be sent down to start.

Nurse
*Klefbom
Russell
Lagesson
Samorukov

*If Klefbom isn’t ready, I think we see a free agent addition for this spot. Kulikov would be fine if Klefbom is expected back by Christmas, a more substantial name – probably an older guy on a 1-year deal (Gio?) – will be acquired if Klefbom is out longer.

So Samorukov will have to clearly show better than both Russell and Lagesson to get a roster spot out of camp.

Last edited 1 month ago by ArmchairGM
OriginalPouzar

Of course, this is pure speculation, but I suspect Klef won’t quite be ready to start the season but likely available to join the active roster in-season.

If that is the case, they need to ensure they have the cap space to acvitate Klef, that is, they can’t use his $4.1M of LTIR reserves as they will disapear.

You post above does take that in to account (i.e. if Klef is likely to be added in-season, a cheaper stop-gap like Kulikov to be added).

pts2pndr

Arguably Samorukov is already better than Russel and Lagesson. Samorukov also has a more complete skill set than they have. While possibly not ready for top four he could in my opinion given his KHL season handle third pairing in the NHL next year.

winchester

There are lots of Jones, Laggesson, Benson level players in the league for Seattle to take. There is a chance they take Kassian if they want that player type or know they can flip him for a pick.

ArmchairGM

I agree with this. They HAVE to select 30 players and cap is largely inconsequential, they’ll certainly have time for guys who are big, fast, physical, and can score goals.

OriginalPouzar

Do you think that Kassian can be flipped for a pick with his current contract and recent history of play?

Maybe he could be there is a very good chance, in my opinion, that 3 more years at over $3M, is a negative value contract that would slide through waivers.

hunter1909

Hunter1909’s Death March Playoff 2021 

is here:

Please follow the link: 

https://oilersdeathmarch.com/marches/playoffs-2021/

Here’s all you have to do: 

1 – log in/register

2- predict number of Oilers playoff wins(called points on the home page)

3 – predict the tie breaker(explained on the homepage)