Pronman, Blumel and the Nuge

by Lowetide

On the day he was drafted, I was encouraged by Matej Blumel but had some concerns: “He’s an interesting pick, but a little shy of being an inspired one. He’s a shooter, works hard and has some range of abilities. I’m unsure that his offense is special and that will be the thing we track with Blumel.”

Blumel belonged to that group of players who are almost Saturday night, meaning talent is there, and there’s no question about draft worthiness, but things need to break right. In baseball, his name is John VanderWal, but it’s also Archi Cianfrocco and it’s also Tyrone Kingwood. Sometimes they play 1,000 games, sometimes 500, sometimes they never make it. It’s a grey area.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

  • Jakub Pour, Age 21 (Czech league): 48 games, 12-4-16 (.333 pts-game)
  • Matej Blumel, Age 20 (Czech league) 49 games, 17-15-32 (.65 pts-game)

They are not the same player-type, Pour is taller and thin (6.03, 198 compared to Blumel’s 6.0, 198) and has been more consistent than Blumel. Edmonton’s prospect may need another season in the Czech league but warrants a contract. Edmonton needs scoring wingers. The Oilers should sign him.

THE NUGE

Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts (it is here, please click and read as I am breaking my rule about waiting 24 hours) including a passage about Ryan Nugent Hopkins: “Edmonton and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are grinding to find common ground.”

So that’s something. It all comes down to dollars and what the Oilers can make work. For instance, last year’s five LW’s cost a total of $14.425 million. That was divided between the Nuge ($6 million), Dominik Kahun ($975,000), Tyler Ennis ($1 million), James Neal ($5.75 million) and Devin Shore ($700,000).

You want better value for your money. If the team buys out James Neal, that means his cost is reduced to $1,916,667 (rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it?) and saves a bundle. If Holland can get Nuge in at $5.75 million, sign Blake Coleman for $3.9 million, then Shore’s contract ($850,000) and Benson’s (we’ll say $800,000) allows the team to add an inexpensive extra (say Kahun at $1.1 million) or shoot the moon (effectively cutting off Benson’s playing time, suspect any savings would be spent at center).

All in with Kahun or similar, the Nuge-Coleman-Kahun-Benson-Shore five-layer cake would cost $14,316,667. Almost the same price, but there’s more quality and potential, plus I may have overestimated the Coleman contract. Something to think about (may have underestimated it, too).

  • Coleman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
  • Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
  • Kahun-Wennberg-Archibald
  • Benson-McLeod-Kassian

The PK men would be Wennberg (2:35 a night), Archibald (2:10 a night), Nuge (1:54) and McLeod (1:05). Jujhar Khaira and Shore would likely be extra forwards and I imagine split time with McLeod and Benson, respectively. Dylan Holloway could arrive early and land in the middle of this depth chart.

OILERS POSSIBLE DEPTH CHART

This assumes that Caleb Jones goes to the Seattle Kraken, and that the Oilers add a couple of veterans on the blue line (William Lagesson to Bakersfield or lost on waivers). McCabe is a bit of an injury worry but well clear of the competition. This also assumes Klefbom is doing the Lido Shuffle (I’ll be sad). A little over $2 million remains.

PRONMAN

Corey Pronman’s 2021 final list is out and it’s a gem. It is here. I first discovered Corey back in the Hockey Prospectus days and he’s been uncovering names for the draft by the dozen every year. He was the only guy on Anton Slepyshev as an example, and he’s worked hard to hone his skills since. Highly recommend.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, final show of the week for the Lowdown (TSN1260 will be carrying the early Euro games for the following two days). At 10:20, Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will discuss Ken Holland’s summer. At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk about the Jays bullpen and how to turn a profit from it. At 11:25, Frank Seravalli from DFO Rundown will talk NHL playoffs and what he’s hearing about the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Bling

Agree with this 100%. Stay away from Coleman.

OriginalPouzar

I remember when I thought Shea Weber was done 3 years ago – I was not correct.

fistycuff

I did same.

defmn

Yeah. You were not the only one to think so. And that Bergevin was an idiot to trade away Subban for him. I think that was a pretty common opinion as well.

GM’ing is so much easier from the sidelines, eh?

Bling

I was wrong on him as well.

Scungilli Slushy

All depends on what the refs do. He gets a lot of leeway. If they start calling him closer it would be different.

He knows how to defend for sure.

fistycuff

Just watching Montreal and Vegas. Anybody notice how important it is to have centers who can win faceoffs? Ya. Me too. Weird eh?

Brewha Ha

It has been a weakness of the Oilers since…2006. Why is this not addressed?

Last edited 4 months ago by Brewha Ha
Ice Sage

boyd gordon was good at this… not much else

jp

Oilers actually won 50+% of their faceoffs this season after being at the bottom of the league for a decade. Progress is a thing. The boys are growing up it seems.

maudite

Adam henrique 52.9% last 4 years in Anaheim.

godot10

Not a right shot centre. Not particularly good defensively and not really a PK’er. So you are never going to put him on the ice for a draw over Draisaitl.

Getzlaf is the right shot centre stop gap the Oilers a looking for.

Dac189

These last 3 minutes in the MTL game are stressful. I’m actually kind of cheering for the Habs

Reja

You gotta love Perry he’s a gamer wish the Oilers had a few more of those.

Ryan

Speaking of free agency and player aging, GeorgeXs would really earn his paycheck if he could find some factors associated with a longer NHL career.

  1. drafted vs undrafted
  2. college education vs none
  3. country played junior hockey
  4. height
  5. weight
  6. Career earnings
  7. Position
  8. cup ring
  9. number of post season games
  10. total nhl games played
  11. round drafted
Last edited 4 months ago by Ryan
jp

I wonder if Dawson’s identified any.

LMHF#1

I’m trying to figure out how you trade for Eichel and Risto from Buffalo. I’m sure there’s a way it could work. No 97 or 29 but everyone else on the table.

Nothing that interesting has happened to this team since summer ‘05 though.

Oilerguy

And no Nurse, Bouchard Broberg. I’m sure it could still be doable though.

delooper

I’m happy for Montreal. Every time they stomped Edmonton during the regular season I had a nagging suspicion it meant something.

Harpers Hair

I had them #2 in the division and had to absorb a lot of grief.

LT would trot out the balance photo for that team.

Reja

i thought you had Vegas sweeping them not much love at all for a heavy team with some real gamers.

Harpers Hair

No…didn’t call this series at all.

Still think Vegas prevails though.

Dac189

I really don’t intend to be that guy right now but June 14th you said

“Pretty good chance that this series is a Vegas sweep”
Last comment on Between the Buttons

I had a similar thought at the time so I don’t mean to grief you for it but you did say it.

Side

You don’t need to apologize for calling HH out on his fibs. Otherwise most people would be apologizing all of the time.

Last edited 4 months ago by Side
pts2pndr

Oh yes you did right after the first game!

OriginalPouzar

They finished 13 points behind 2nd in the division, with 11 less wins and trailing in goal differential by 38. Not even close on that pick.

Harpers Hair

And yet here we are.
Every NHL season includes the playoffs.

Fuhrious

Apparently hindsight is particularly sharp for the under-bridge dwellers among us.

Reja

Drive for show putt for dough.

jp

Well not for the Canucks, and all the other terrible teams you’re calling to pass the Oilers in the next season or so.

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
One potential free-agency note: word is that Travis Hamonic, who has opted to stay in Western Canada the last few seasons, is willing to consider all options if he hits the market. VAN still has time to re-sign.

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1405345139741151235?s=20

godot10

A $3 million dollar 80% paycut and the spouse thinks that maybe you don’t need to be so close to home after all.

Last edited 4 months ago by godot10
Harpers Hair

He has already said publicly he wants to return to the Canucks.

We’ll have to see how that translates into dollars.

Jaxon

Oilers should give Tristen Nielsen a tryout or an AHL contract. He had a great season in the WHL. I thought he should have been drafted back in 2018. This is what I wrote after the draft:
” June 27, 2018 9:59 pm

Was just doing some digging into Tristen Nielsen’s season. It seems he had a tough start and didn’t score for the first 10GP. If you take his last 39 games his number projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts would be about 24.926, which would be 5th among North Americans, and he had an injury in the middle of those games so there was probably one interrupted game and a few rusty ones after returning. He’s definitely small, but those numbers are better than Yamamoto’s 23.847, and just behind Draisaitl’s 25.927 and Eberle’s 25.118. Man, I really hope they’re in touch with this young man.
Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts at Top6TOI
Andrei Svechnikov 38.801
Joel Farabee 32.232
Oliver Wahlstrom 28.788
Jonathan Gruden 27.616
Tristen Nielsen (last 39 GP) 24.926***
Filip Zadina 23.902
Serron Noel 23.696
Jake Wise 22.054″

godot10

He loses the university scholarship money he’s banked if he signs a pro contract. (The CHL should be forced to change this rule.)

Might make sense to go to USports first and get most of his degree and sign a pro contract in two or three years.

Jaxon

I read in an interview that he’d ultimately like a pro contact but would be grateful for a university education if that didn’t work out. At $700,000 per year or more, you take the pro contract. That pays for your university tuition and then some. He could save $300,000 plus per year. If he played for 3 years and is good with his money he could have over $1 million in the bank to go to university with, buy a house, invest, etc.

Last edited 4 months ago by Jaxon
Jaxon

For context. Undergrad tuition is a maximum $11,400 in Toronto (usually around 9,000 in most of Canada, and max. 14,000 at Capilano for some reason). He played 5 seasons in the WHL, so it’s worth about $45,000 in tuition fees. (6 if you count his 3 game callup season, not sure what their rules are), so let’s say a maximum of $70,000 in tuition fees. I don’t think it’s a full ride where they’d cover living expenses or room and board.

godot10

One doesn’t get paid $700K in the AHL on an ELC. One gets what,$30-50K or so at most. Enough to barely live on but not enough to save for university.

He has earned a $50K or so entitlement to a scholarship. Signing a pro contract starts with giving that away for a minor league salary.

Jaxon

Sorry, I stand corrected. I guess Capfriendly lists their NHL contract even if they are in the AHL. I mistakenly took that for their AHL salary. So, yeah, he’d be giving up $50K or so, which is substantial. But as he mentioned in the article, he’d prefer to go pro, regardless.

jp

99% sure that ELC base salary (for the minors) is $70k or $72k (maybe going up slightly each year?). There’s the possibility of a signing bonus on top of that (even if he’s in the minors, though if he’s scraping the barrel to get a contract then a signing bonus isn’t likely).

Anyway, he would make more as a pro than his scholarship is worth (I assume the scholarship is CAD too, while his ELC would be in USD). Sounds like the young man wants to play hockey as long as he can get paid for it so I imagine he’ll do that if he can.

Jaxon

Did a little digging, if I understand correctly, ELC AHL contracts are currently minimum $51,000 and maximum $70,000.

jp

Every Oilers prospect is listed at $70k as the minors salary on CapFriendly.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers

Jaxon

It looks like almost all players signed to a NHL ELC and playing in the AHL received signing bonuses between $80k to $90k. And most received the signing bonus every year. So that’s on top of their AHL salary. Or am I misreading it again?

Jaxon

From Energeticcity:
“Following a 2019-2020 campaign that saw him win the Most Improved Player, White Spot Humanitarian of the Year, and the Gordie Howe Top Scorer award, Nielsen was invited to the San Jose Sharks’ summer conditioning camp and main tryout camps. Unfortunately, COVID-19 restrictions threw his plans into the blender.

“I was supposed to go to their development camp and their rookie camp, and obviously with COVID-19, that didn’t happen. That was tough luck, but for me right now, my focus is to get a pro deal.”

The consolation for a player like Nielsen if pro hockey doesn’t work out is a year of Canadian University tuition fully paid for every season he played in the WHL.

“Obviously, I’ll explore my options and try to play hockey as long as I can. But if I end up going to school, I wouldn’t be disappointed. I could look back on my career and be happy, but I’d be way more satisfied if I could make a pro career out of it.””

delooper

Why are Petry’s eyes blood red?

delooper

It’s like he’s possessed by the spirit of Stan Weir.

PokeCheck
[imgcomment image[/img]
Last edited 4 months ago by PokeCheck
Glovjuice

200 mg

Ice Sage

It’s the reflection of the light behind fleury

PokeCheck

Can someone get Petry some Visine? Mon Dieu!

OriginalPouzar

Yes, this is the premise of what I posted earlier today – if Coleman is signed with the premise of being a top line winger, then he is being mis-cast. Yes, he will produce with McDavid I would anticipate but he’s be asked to do more than he reasonably should.

At the same time until the likes of Holloway or Lavoie or Savoie, someone with real top 6 skill and talent, take a top 6 spot, the Oilers will likely remain in a position where they have a top 6 winger or two that is batting too high in the order.

Sierra

For me, the basis is what are the other options for 1LW. I don’t care that Coleman doesn’t bring true first line scoring. I care whether he will score more with McDavid than the other available options. We know he should score more than the other internal options, although that’s not a high bar. Next a care about whether the contract makes sense. Does he get paid like a scoring 1LW or does he get paid as a 3/2LW who gets to play with McDavid.

The Oilers badly need legitimate NHLers for LW.

godot10

JT Miller ended up on the 4th line in Tampa before he was traded.

Saad and Coleman have been productive on multiple teams. Hyman only on one.

JimmyV1965

Do you know his even strength scoring? I see a guy who arrived in the NHL late and has scored well on a bad Devils team and the third line on Tampa. And he looks like a goal scorer; not a guy who gets a lot of assists.

TheGreatBigMac

I think all of Hyman, Coleman, and Saad qualify as on sale because their teams ran out of cap. It’s important to not overpay but that’s what you get with UFAs. The only big LW UFA that I see being a possible value deal is Tatar.

Bag of Pucks

How do you rate the Toffoli contract as a UFA signing?

Harpers Hair

The thing with Toffoli is that he played on a team whose identity was lock down D. (See Daryl Sutter for reference).

As soon as he was traded to Vancouver, the offense he showed in junior and early in his career exploded with 10 points in 10 games.

The issue with Coleman is that he’s been playing on a high octane offensive team and his production may not translate to a team that is still in search of an identity.

I saw a similar observation about Hyman today.

Steven Burtch pointed out that Pierre Engvall has outscored Hyman by a considerable margin in their minor league careers but Hyman has benefited greatly by playing with Matthews and Marner.

Not to say either player wouldn’t succeed playing with McDavid but I think you have to be very careful with the type of contracts you offer those players

Scungilli Slushy

Bang on.

I think a lot of the issue with UFA signings is about what is driving it.

Lucic was about scratching that itch, it was REALLY itchy, regardless if it was the ghost of Lucic. He also was amongst the most likely to drop off a cliff. Limited talent and skating at his best. Ass kicker supreme.

Coleman to me is safe. His cap hit won’t be a killer. Hyman’s might be. Coleman also won’t be expected to be a corker top 6 player.

He has similar numbers to the more expensive options, can play any position and plays a heavy game.

I don’t think they should expect him to be a banger, it’s more that he is comfortable playing the style they need more of.

If he drops down the line up it isn’t prohibitive cap wise, if not ideal.

For me there are two style options for the 2 LW they need for the next season or two. I would always go for elite skill.

An elite player like Panarin Kane or Kucherov that can drive offense any time, or a physical winger that will win board battles and go to the floor and can put the puck in enough.

Option one is much harder and far more costly. They also don’t have cap headspace for another big forward cap hit if they want depth.

godot10

Coleman has been productive for two teams. Hyman has been productive with Captain Underpants.

jp

The thing with Toffoli is that he played on a team whose identity was lock down D. (See Daryl Sutter for reference).

Todd McLellan? John Stevens?

Tofolli had his best seasons (before this one) under Sutter.

Harpers Hair

Sutter – .70 PPG

McLellan .59 PPG

Green – 1.00 PPG

Ducharme – .89 PPG

Toffoli leaves the Kings system…BOOM.

koskidaddy

Huge fan of the McCabe signing, he’s a solid defenseman. If Klefbom doesn’t come back, we’re going to need some insurance. Laggesson and Russell on the team would be a nightmare.

Not sure why everyone here hates Taylor Hall for some reason. Solid top 6 LW that can drive play and produce offense. He is not a “locker room cancer”, he’s just been on awful teams until this season with the Bruins.

Bag of Pucks

Buck Martinez is just a joy to listen to. His voice just sounds like baseball.

Tim McCarver-esque with less polish and more Big League Chew.

Rebuildwhatrebuild

Crack the window boys, lots of glue sniffing going on in here.

Sierra

I agree, but not sure if for the same reason(s).

Harpers Hair

A new NHL record set today…

The highest temperature in a playoff city in Vegas on game day…45 degrees.

But it’s a dry heat 🥵

Bling

HH, I was too strong in saying that Hall would never win a cup in Boston.

You are correct, they have many good pieces in place and if they retain Hall that is one more.

Their main problem is the forwards. Krejci, Bergeron, Marchand are all getting up there. Hall is taking a chance that they can maintain their effectiveness for another 3-4 years. Maybe that happens, but any regression from any of the four weakens their squad.

The Bruins were scraping the bottom of the barrel with respect to 5v5 goals for prior to the acquisition of Hall. They finished 15th, 8 goals behind the Oilers who finished in 9th.

My point is simple: A full season of Hall may make the Bruins top 10 in EV GF scoring. Add Hall to the Oilers? This team can easily be top 5 if not top 3.

Add 11 GF to the Oilers total and they are 5th. Add 17 and they are tied for second. Add 20 and they are tied for first.

It is not a stretch at all to project an acquisition of Hall and a rebound year from RNH as bringing the Oilers into the top 5.

That’s without speaking to the attendant improvement that would come from bumping up the bottom six from building on fire terrible to merely does something smell like smoke bad. I hope Holland does one better and gets us to 50% GF territory from that crew.

Harpers Hair

Generally I agree with you but as those players age out and fall off the cap, the Bruins will be in a position to replace them bearing in mind Boston is a prime free agent destination.

Krejci is pretty much done already and will likely only come back on the cheap.

Bergeron and Marchand are still playing at a high level and even Bergeron’s contract is close to done.

Their prospect pool is poor due to their regular season success but a smart GM can compensate for that through other means.

See Vegas for reference.

OriginalPouzar

Colorado, Vegas, Seattle, Boston, Vancouver, LA, Calgary, etc., etc., etc. – are the GM’s of all 31 non-Oiler teams going to have great off-season success or will the Oilers be the lone team with a management fail.

Glovjuice

My goodness, OP. Please stop. This type of post from you is so unnecessary. Adds no value at all and is very selfish.

Sierra

In fairness though, that is the gist of many of HH’s posts.

Harpers Hair

No it isn’t.

Discussing the pros and cons of other teams is hardly a condemnation of the Oilers.

That it hurts OP’s feelings is beside the point.

As always, results matter and anyone who is paying attention knows that the Oilers have had the worst management in the league for a couple of decades.

Holland is now on the clock and we’ll see what happens but I’m not really enthralled with what I’ve seen based on early results.

We’ll soon see.

tsunami

many ? all of them… seriously, it’s ridiculous

OriginalPouzar

I look forward to a post of yours that is not related to:

1) policing my posts; or

2) drugs

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Reprehensible post. Someone has hacked OP’s account because only a first class asshole would post something like this. So definitely not OP.

buck yoakam

ok kids!…bedtime!

Todd Macallan

As per Pronman, Jeremias Lindewall makes the Swedish U20 national team for the upcoming summer tourney. Arrows up!

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

What would Vegas do? Sign someone with no upside like Nuge for $6M x 5? Not a chance.

Bag of Pucks

Could you replace RNH’s production for a comparable cap hit with 3 of the following: Haula, Bunting, Armia, Kuraly, Coleman, Janmark?

Which one is capable of popping for 30 goals in a Top 6 role? My bet would be on Coleman or Janmark though Haula hit 29 once before an injury filled season took him out of the mix in Vegas.

koskidaddy

Lots of middle 6 players don’t equal a top 6 player.

If you combined all those guys, they might even have more points than McDavid. Would you trade McDavid for them, 6 for 1? Of course not.

Bag of Pucks

1 player doesn’t fill 3 roster holes.

Kevin Fiala, Alex Tuch and Tyler Toffoli didn’t look like Top 6 players until they did.

Sierra

<insert name> didn’t look like Top 6 players until they did.

This is so key.

Last edited 4 months ago by Sierra
Dac189

I’m really curious what expectations here are for next season.

Dac189

Poll #1

No anchor contracts signed
Finish 8th regular season
Beat Seattle in 7
Lose to Vegas in 6

Would that be a successful season?
+ Yes
– No

LMHF#1

Where’s the “that’s horrendous” option?

It’s always shocking to me how many people have convinced themselves to love purgatory.

Durag

This a million times. There’s 5 years left on McDavid’s contract and a shocking amount of people seem content to not even shoot for a conference final next year.

Last edited 4 months ago by Durag
Dac189

Poll #2
If Kenny makes the exact moves you believe Edmonton needs to make. Does Edmonton have a reasonable chance (>40%) of getting past Vegas in round 2

+ Yes
– No

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Pretty low. Tip will be back, sadly. Nuge will be signed for $6M x 5. Bouch will finally get playing time but will do the rookie things that rookies do. We will sign a Turris type to justify losing Benson or letting him rot in the AHL. Marody too since you can only play rookies sparingly when you have visions of chasing Stanley. Same as always.

John Chambers

Kassian for DeBrusk
I think Matheson mentioned this the other day and it seems entirely plausible. Would leave money available to sign RNH, a 3C like Wennberg and a 2LD.
Its possible that Neal wouldn’t even need to be bought out until next summer to optimize cap space for when Nurse, JP, and Bear have new deals.

Durag

I’m sure all Oilers fans would love it, but why would anyone be interested in Kassian?

John Chambers

It’s a shame you’re getting down-voted because it’s a legitimate question.

My way of answering it would be to take the perspective of a Boston fan who might ask why anyone would want DeBrusk.

These negative-value contract swaps (eg Lucic for Neal) are fascinating because if a player rebounds they posit a dual win for the team (gaining a good player while shedding a bad contract).

Jake has some serious upside, and it’s possible Kassian has $3M worth of cachet around the league. Truculence never goes out of style in the NHL.

TheGreatBigMac

LOL have you talked to a Boston fan, they think DeBrusk is blue chip and worth multiple firsts if not more!

JimmyV1965

Kassian still has value to some GMs, especially after the playoffs. We might have to retain some, but even we retained $1 mill, IMO lots of teams would be interested.

OriginalPouzar

I agree that he would be tradeable with $1M retained, even for a potential middling asset – I am not so sure he has any trade value straight up at $3.2M X 3.

Moonlight Overthrow

Take that and run, very fast, and never look back. Even if you walk away from him after next year.

defmn

Guys covering the Oilers have been telegraphing this for some time now imo. Not sure if it works straight across but it won’t surprise me to see this.

Everybody here focuses on DeBrusk’s qualifying offer after next season but that is a next season problem. It strikes me as a reasonable ‘player needs a second opinion’ trade that leaves the Oilers with less exposure if it doesn’t work. Cap hits are not that far off and when the Bruins sign Hall DeBrusk is really odd man out in beantown much the way Kassian is in Edmonton.

OriginalPouzar

Sure, its next year’s problem but its a massive factor. Its more likely than not that he won’t be worth a $4.8M qualifying offer in one season and that simply needs to be factored in to acquisition cost. The asset is likely a one-year rental who may or may not sign a cheaper contract next off-season (he could go to market).

Absolutely, I trade Kassian for him – his contract has locked in a bloated cap hit for 3 years, 2 more than DeBrusk. Its a more toxic contract and the Bruins are looking to open up cap in a DeBrusk trade, not take on 3 years of bad cap.

€√¥£€^$

An unpopular opinion, I know, but this offseason/at the draft I am shopping Yamo, Bear and Kassian.

Player types I’d like to add include Barclay Goodrow, Nick Paul, Joel Armia for the bottom 6 and Danault (absolutely ideal 3C with Coleman or Nuge as 3LW), with Coleman, Schwartz and Janmark for the top 6.

Another unpopular opinion is signing Hall (to no more than a $5MM AAV) and putting him on Draisaitl’s wing.

I also think Holland wants to supersize his D, player like Oleksiak, Forbort and Hakenpaa are extremely likely to be on his radar.

I don’t want DeBrusk on my team, kind of reminds me of Athanasiou…

Last edited 4 months ago by €√¥£€^$
Gollum

Not to pick on you in particular but I think that the people who figure that Hall is going to sign for $5 million a year are delusional. Time will tell but I’m guessing 7+. He is a former MVP.

OriginalPouzar

Joe Thornton is also a former MVP……. not sure it means much given recent play.

€√¥£€^$

In my defense, for the past many many seasons:

Oilers Fan = Hope = Delusions of “Stan”deur = me

Last edited 4 months ago by €√¥£€^$
Harpers Hair

Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) Tweeted:
Jason Spezza returns to the #leafs next season on his third straight league-minimum contract: $750,000.

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1405237457772285967?s=20

Melman

That’s what the Oilers can hopefully find. Spezza, Perry, Maroon, Palmieri on value type deals… They can split time and help some in the regular season, but you need some old hairy asses to win in playoffs

maudite

Random trade proposal:

Kassian
Jones
1st

To Anaheim for:

Henrique with balance above kassian’s contract retained (2.5 million)
Rackell

Henrique becomes RNH replacement for next 3 years

One year of rackell for top 6 RW at 3.8 mill…

Better than buyout for ducks on henrique…gets us henrique at value reasonable to sign on 3 year deal.

Worth it?
Reasonable trade?

ArmchairGM

Is Rakell a top-6 RW still? His goal scoring has dried up, 18 to 15 to 9. He isn’t worth much as a rental, I’m pretty sure you could get an equivalent player for similar money in free agency.

maudite

Anaheim had a 8.9% powerplay conversion rate, among other things. I think there is likely some buy low value there in a few players.

Anaheim is dying a slow death as Getzlaf falls back to earth.

Harpers Hair

Quite the opposite..

Getzlaf and Backes money comes off the cap now and they’re about to move Henrique freeing up a ton of cap space.

Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Sam Steel, Maxine Comtois, Isaac Lundstrom and Alexander Volkov are all high end prospects at forward and they have Jamie Drysdale coming on D while Cam Fowler who is only 29 is still performing at a high level.

They should get another stud in this draft, likely one of the D.

Now that they have hired an analytics guru, it shouldn’t be long before they’re competitive.

maudite

Look at their regression the last 3 years.

Yes, they are likely looking a few years out to really start turning corner back to higher level competitive…but they’ve been crashing down for 3 years already.

Which is exactly why the deal I propose seems to make sense to me.

No one is taking henrique at 5.8 million.

Rackell has value as a rental.

A 1st
A young defenseman whose approaching the cusp of seasoned.
A younger vet with size and can skate and provide some truculence protecting young guys.

Seems like a nice package for where they are at in rebuild.

What the “quite the opposite” are you talking about?

Last edited 4 months ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

Dying a slow death…the dying is done.

maudite

I was responding to the regression in rackell’s goals. The last 3 years noted they have been dying.

“Yeah everything has been sliding along with the tail end of Getzlaf contract.”

Your point, aside from being a walking contradiction, eludes me.

Last edited 4 months ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

I’ll expand on that a bit more.

Kassian has negative value.

Jones doesn’t have much value considering what the Ducks already have in young D.

Jamie Drysdale – 19 – 6th overall

Josh Mahura – 23 – 41 NHL GP

Haydn Fleury – 24 – 7th overall – 179 NHL GP

Jacob Larsson – 24 – 27th overall – 159 NHL GP

It’s a pretty good bet that the Ducks select either Luke Hughes or Simon Edvinsson with the 3rd overall pick so they pretty much have that area covered.

So, you’re trading the 20th overall pick for two top 6 forwards and making Anaheim take on Kassian and a young D that they definitely don’t need.

You would likely be better off just trying to trade the 20th overall for Rackell straight. up and let Anaheim deal with Henrique although I doubt the Ducks would do this since they would likely get a better offer.

If they retain half, they should easily be able to move Henrique

maudite

That response is appreciated. I was thinking early 20’s Dman with some definite upside would be a nice fit in a team hoping to start retooling in next couple years and start trending up.

What kind of deal do you think would work for kassian the way with henrique coming back with ducks retaining salary?

The main gist was I think slightly older Calder finalist, from same year as RNH, on a 3 year deal at a much lower price point than Hopkins (and less term) – with kassian included going other way

Seems like a possible 2 birds one stone type move.

jp

Henrique looks like a decent target to me.

I wonder if the Oilers would have to add much or anything to a Henrique for Kassian trade (with none retained by the Ducks). I’m not sure Holland would do that deal either, but it could be an alright one.

Henrique is 11 months older than Kassian. Makes $2.625M more, both for 3 more years.

Henrique had a bit of a poor season, but he was still just shy of 0.5 points per game, and -1 at 5v5 on a very bad Ducks team. The missed games made it look worse than it was.

All his 5v5 offensive numbers fell off from from the previous season, but he had career highs across the board last year. His 5v5 points/60 (1.79) was actually the 3rd highest of his career (after last season and his rookie year). His shot, scoring chance, etc metrics were all in line with the rest of his career aside from last season. Not much indication he’s slowed down.

You mentioned the Ducks awful PP, which was a big culprit. He had 0 goals, 2 assists all year on the PP. Both he and Rackell scored FAR better at even strength than on the PP (he only scored 0.8 P/60 at 5v4 this year. Man).

I mentioned he was -1 in goal differential. He was a + player each of the 3 years before that, and has only had one year where he was worse than -2 at 5v5. He’s never had a negative GF% relative to teammates in his career (like his old teammate Taylor Hall).

He played the toughs this year (as much as can be said for a player in the West division), 2nd among forwards in % TOI vs elites. Didn’t get a zone start push (nor was he hurried).

He can also win faceoffs, as you’ve mentioned. He’s played lots on the PP but he generally hasn’t had great results. He was a primary penalty killer in New Jersey but moved to a secondary (~1 minute a game) PKer in Anaheim. His PK results seem to be pretty good when he has done it.

Still not sure if I’d even do a Henrique for Kassian deal, if I were GM. I do think though that Henrique should rebound some and has some good years left. Rackell, as you mentioned, and Lindholm among others are also interesting names with not much term left.

Last edited 4 months ago by jp
Bling

For those who want to sign Adam Larsson, I have a question:

What makes Adam Larsson at age 28 so different from Karl Alzner at age 29?

Alzner ran at a 61% GF in his final year in Washington before being signed by Montreal. He played a full season and then the wheels came off.

In retrospect, Alzner’s xGF% in that final Washington year was a pedestrian 47.1%. Larsson’s GF% this year was 47.5 and his xGF% 48.1.

I have grave concerns about Larsson. We saw this season that he was starting to get beat to the outside and that the mistakes were creeping up. He was good by WAR metrics, but this is a player who, should he lose a half step, will be done as a top 4 D.

Larsson is great defensively but does not contribute much, if anything, the other way. His margin for error defensively is therefore small.

Another thing: what if the NHL cracks down on obstruction again? Maybe not this year, but I’m willing to bet something will change within 2-3 years. A player type like Larsson takes another big hit.

A 4 year deal at 4 million is a mistake for this player type and full of risk. Adding Hamilton would be ideal, but failing that why not a stop gap second pairing guy for one year while Bouchard is breaking in?

Brewha Ha

I couldn’t disagree more. Adam Larsson is exactly what the Oilers need.

Bag of Pucks

Agreed. A long term contract for a player with back issues and mobility ill suited for the modern transition game would be a mistake.

Ken HAS to know when to hold them and when to fold them with this player.

JOFA

Agreed!

meanashell11

Again, back issues. How does Larsson have back issues?

ArmchairGM

Great comment. Those hitting the minus button should bookmark this and come back in 2 years time.

But they won’t have the guts.

Last edited 4 months ago by ArmchairGM
JOFA

Yes Sir. Book it! Bling is bang on.

ArmchairGM

Hamonic on a 1-year, $1.25M deal would likely be 95% as effective as Larsson. Change my mind.

Then Holland can bring Parayko home next summer.

JOFA

Excellent post Bling. 100% agree! Holland will sign him for too much money, and too long a term. I believe Rishaug is of the same opinion.

Rondo

Very difficult to predict the #19 pick.

Sillinger
Cornato
Rosen
Lysell
Svechkov
Othman
Pinelli
Raty
L’Heureux
Cossa

knighttown

I think a goalie will be there. I think Detroit or San Jose would be a bit loco to take a goalie at 6/7 with Luke Hughes types on the board. And once they are gone I only see Chicago and Dallas being desperate enough to use a first rounder on a goalie.

Certainly not LA, NYR, Van, Philly, Cal, Nash and Winnipeg who all have goalies locked in for now and/or the future. These are young and franchise defining goalies.

Even Ottawa and St. Louis are pretty committed to Murray and Binnington.

Of course, Florida drafted Knight and signed Bob relatively close together so I suppose you never know.

Harpers Hair

Dallas has 22 year old 6’4” Boston College alumni Jake Ottenger already playing in the NHL…he’s the goods.

Ice Sage

Aw don’t do that to the kid

Randle McMurphy

All we know for sure is that Cossa goes at 18

Bling

LT, that defence looks highly questionable. I have no idea how to fix it and applaud your efforts to try.

I don’t think it gets better until Samorukov and Broberg arrive, or maybe if Klef comes back.

fistycuff

Forwards in that lineup not good enough either. No juice. This lineup is capped out and it’s not any better/possibly slightly better, than last year team.

Bling

At this point I’m blinded with a rageful bias, but I have zero time for Kassian. Get this guy out of here. There isn’t a single person in this comments section who liked that extension when it was signed and Kassian has lived up to the worst possible projection of our collective worst fears.

When he completely abandoned his position on that Winnipeg playoff goal, I had enough. Yes players make mistakes, but this guy is atrocious defensively. He’s another guy for whom the best case scenario is 50% GF, because he gives so much back the other way.

For his size, he may be the most useless guy on the sideboard in the d-zone. I can’t stand it.

Bag of Pucks

Yes, but you wouldn’t say this to his face which is likely why his is still a tradeable contract.

Moonlight Overthrow

Sure hope so.

Bag of Pucks

I wonder what the reaction of Oiler fans will be if the Dutchman essentially does a do-over on the 2011 draft signing Landeskog over RNH?

godot10

Ryan Murray is also a UFA.

Elgin R

Landeskog is probably not going anywhere – good to very good chance he will sign in Colorado. Same goes for RNH in Edmonton – although a little lower probability.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’d be over the moon.

I wanted Seguin, Landeskog and Dumba. That could have been an entirely different decade had they gone that route.

Although, their best days are likely behind them so getting them now is likely to come with some pain at some point over the duration of the contract. Which is likely to be a bit of an overpay in one or both of AAV and term.

Bag of Pucks

Corey Perry, Joel Armia, Eric Staal and Nick Suzuki combined have a lower cumulative cap hit that RNH this season.

Bergevin paid less for an entire line that’s been effective these playoffs than the Oilers paid for Nuge.

Gollum

Hardly a fair way to judge these things. They have been more effective than McDavid too. Maybe we should get rid of him.

Bag of Pucks

The Jets had to tailor their entire system to shutdown Connor (and Leon).

RNH’s line got a much more favourable matchup and could barely piss a drop.

Randle McMurphy

LT’s roster above makes perfect sense from a Ken Holland point of view.

Improves the team marginally, making the playoffs a high probability.

Gets us past the Kraken expansion.

Gets a final answer on Klefbom.

Makes buyouts less costly for the future.

Get more intel on Yamo, JP, Bear, Bouchard, Benson, Holloway, Broberg, Skinner, Konovalov.

Biggest UFA add comes in Summer 2022

We’ll know by then the price/cost of Nurse,JP and a new Goalie.

Last edited 4 months ago by Randle McMurphy
fistycuff

Yup and another year has passed with only marginal improvement if any. Aim higher and do better. Having a full 25% of cap available and the club can only improve marginally. That’s a fail…big time…

OriginalPouzar

The amount of cap space, without context, is misleading. That cap space is available because players holding the following positions this past season are free agents and these positions need to be filled:

1LW
2LW
2RW
1RD
2RD
2LD
1G

Cassandra

I don’t hate that team, I think it has a chance. But even with a good plan it sure requires a lot to break the right way.

And that is without dealing with the Klefbom uncertainty. If you don’t know what his situation is, you can’t spend his money. That’s a real problem.

Jethro Tull

A good plan never survives the first fuck up.

Brewha Ha

Small to marginal improvement from a club with more than 25% of cap available to get better…. is unacceptable. Big days ahead. This is the year for the Oilers to improve. There will not be a better time at any point during McDrai contracts. It’s now or never.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t mind that proposed lineup but I do worry that, if Coleman is signed, that he is asked to do more than his established ability levels if he’s playing on McDavid’s wing.

I know McDavid can zoom but I don’t think Coleman is a legit top line winger and we’ve seen players not be able to perform in that role – its a lot of minutes and its against the toughest comp.

I’d almost rather have Hall if he would come in near the $5M range for 2-4 years. I don’t know if he’ll sign that type of deal but it seems he wants some term and, frankly, he production over the last while doesn’t warrant big time money for term. He had a nice regular season run with the Bruins to re-establish value but, at the end of the playoffs, his production wasn’t there.

He’d be amazing with Drai, I’m sure, they were years ago and Drai is so much better now (although Hall may not be as good) and I’d like to see it, but the contract has to be in line with Halls play the last while and the fact he’s close to entering regression years due to age.

————-

I like Wenberg as a 3C option. McLeod is not ready for that role, in my opinon.

I’d prefer Danualt but we are talking about a massively different contract for Danault.

Moonlight Overthrow

Ryan’s brother in NJ might be a good, cost-effective RH 3C target. Thought I read somewhere he’d be exposed in the expansion draft.

Wennberg would provide proven ability and PK experience, but would cost more. Danault would be the most expensive, but do you think he signs anywhere to be 3C? He seems to be looking for a top 6 role.

Bling

I share your trepidation with Coleman.

There is really nothing in his resume to suggest a top line LW. He played 4 years in college and was a sub PPG player in the AHL. His first two NHL seasons were nothing to write home about. He has had two good years and is turning 30 this November.

Holloway, Kahun, and Benson were all better players than him at the college/AHL level. Kahun has been better as an NHLer at the same age.

Does that sound like a guy you want to sign to a long term deal to be your 1st line LW? I can’t think of a top line winger who has a resume like that.

I’m not even sure I would want him as 3rd line LW two seasons from now, when Holloway will definitely be ready. Coleman is going to go for as much term as he can. Personally, I am completely against signing this player. Stay far, far away.

Meanwhile, Hall is a legit first line talent who, even with a dip in ability, can easily drive a second line or have a Kessel type impact on the third line. It is so rare to be able to acquire a superstar on a discount in his prime for nothing but dollars.

If I’m Holland, I offer more than what the B’s are offering if that’s what it takes.

Let’s not forget the upside with Hall — MVP candidate and top 5 LW in the game. That’s the upside. Btw, adding Hall makes Nuge better and probably makes Leon a consistent 50 goal man. So there is some surplus value over and above what his stats sheet looks like.

The real question is does Hall want a cup or not. He might get one with Edmonton; he definitely won’t in Boston.

Shane

+1

Diablo

Lucic/Eriksson/Okposo/Ladd is yesteryear’s version of RNH/Hyman/Hall/Saad – long-term contracts (4 years or more) signed for any of these players will be lamented by fans in 1-2 years time. I prefer short term manageable risk, such as signing a Schwartz, Tatar or Hoffman for 1-2 years, or absorbing a high-priced but still useful player like JVR or Kadri with 1-2 years left on their deals, in return for a draft pick.

Supplement with 1 or 2 former high picks who had NHL tools the day they were drafted but now for whatever reason need a change of scenery (similar to Bennett) … no more going walkabout in the hinterlands of Europe for tweeners (e.g. Kahun, Nygard, Haas).

Goaltender is the number 1 thing to fix this year – none of our prospects project to be anything more than a backup in NHL. I don’t regret passing on Zegras or Caufield in favour of Broberg … I regret that they passed on Spencer Knight. Holland’s most important move this season will be drafting whichever one of Cossa or Wallstedt ends up becoming an elite #1 in 2-3 years. Elite goalies arrive early, and NHL hockey is still mostly goalie.

Second most important move will to avoid signing any contracts that we’re all going to regret by this time next year.

Material Elvis

I couldn’t agree more. The long term deals go to core impact players and nobody else. The Oilers currently have three guys who fit that description: CMD, Draisaitl, Nurse. Any other player should be on 1-3 year deals maximum. We’ve seen the 4-6 UFA deals go south so many times now; repeating that mistake will lead to a bad outcome (underperformance, buyout, etc) more often than not, if you trust the math. Why make that mistake? Nuge and Larsson fall into this category so why go more than 3 years? If they walk, so be it. Keep some flexibility in the roster by limiting term to UFA’s and spend term/dollars on RFA’s.

Harpers Hair

I find proclamations like this to be hilarious.

Are you aware that Boston has more than $27 million in free cap space and has always been a prime destination for free agents?

Do you know that they have three young D who would make most GMs envious?

They also have a young goaltender who has been turning heads and projects as a #1 for a very long time.

Yes, there will be turnover as their forwards age out but that also frees up additional cap space but in the meantime Bergeron and Marchand continue to perform at a very high level.

They remain a lot closer to a championship than the Oilers and I recall how most here were predicting their immediate demise after Chiarelli turned their cap in a fustercluck.

Didnt happen.

OriginalPouzar

LT, in that lineup, when you say a little over $2MM remains, is that $2MM under the $81.5MM cap and not using LTIR reserves or is that $2MM of the $4MM LTIR reserves being used (the Oilers are over the cap but have some extra LTIR room)?

The latter would require some slick cap/roster management to get access to the full $4.1MM of LTIR reserves but then only use $2MM of them on the opening night roster.

buck yoakam

the oilers are so much closer to draft and develop than they have been since forever it seems…it’s like anything that pops is an absolute bonus…I realize this is such a foreign feeling for us…I want us to have those kids that other teams covet and wonder how they missed out on that one….

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Agreed, and I definitely want to get there. The issue is that the prime years of 97 and 29 are dying on the vine. It’s hard to be patient, but I hope Holland does get us there. If this project wasn’t so botched by Tambellini, MacT, and Chia, the good times would be rolling right now. It puts more pressure on Holland to try to balance the future and the present. He walked into quite a mess!

OriginalPouzar

97 and 29 aren’t even in their primes yet, in my opinion.

OK, maybe they have started their “offensive production primes” but I don’t think they are going to regress in that area for half a decade (or more) and I think they are both improving various other aspects of their games.

These two players will be at their primes in a year or two, in my opinion, and their primes will not be short.

Harpers Hair

Even if that is true, their contracts will not.

Material Elvis

Matthews and MacKinnon’s contracts run out soon. Imagine the free agency offers that they will get? Oh my!

Harpers Hair

Do you think the Oilers will win a playoff game by then?

OriginalPouzar

What does that have to do with the conversation? Further, what doesn’t that even mean?

McDavid has 5 more years on his deal, Drai 4.

Joe Sakic has wasted his top player’s value contract and his captain’s value contract.

Last edited 4 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Harpers Hair

So, you’ve decided the Avalanche are done?
I wouldn’t bet on it and the Oilers are years away, if ever, from reaching that level.

jp

HH: “I find proclamations like this to be hilarious”

Also HH: “the Oilers are years away, if ever, from reaching that level”

Sierra

This should be a sticky as the first comment in each day’s thread.

jp

Unfortunately, yes.

jp

OriginalPouzar

These two players will be at their primes in a year or two, in my opinion, and their primes will not be short

Harpers Hair

Even if that is true, their contracts will not.

Agreed, their current Oilers contracts are not short. And their next contracts with the Oilers aren’t likely to be either.

Last edited 4 months ago by jp
leadfarmer

All these guys will magically come to a contract understanding right after the expansion draft

defmn

Yup. Just like guys used to file contracts 1 minute into free agency before there was any period of time for discussions. Handshakes still mean something to some people.

Harpers Hair

Can’t wait to see all the deals Francis has already worked out at the expansion draft.

Dee Dee

> If Holland can get Nuge in at $5.75 million

I wonder if dropping Nuge by .25 Million comes back to haunt the team ala Ryan Smith.

Diablo

Ryan Smyth was a warrior in the playoffs … RNH is no Ryan Smyth.

Also the situation is completely different – the EIG were cash-strapped and pinching Smytty was done purely for financial reasons. Not paying RNH more than 5.5 million per year is being contemplated for purely hockey reasons … he’s simply not worth more than that in a flat-cap NHL.

RNH will either get paid by a team with no shot at winning anything, or he’ll take less to stay in Edmonton. We should not be too attached to this player.

Litke 94

Although I can see some moderate improvement in that roster, I agree with another poster that it isn’t quite enough – at least in terms of a roster that could compete for a Cup.

Certainly Benson could end up surprising and being a key cog on the LW, and maybe Yamo snaps back to 2019/2020 levels. Bouchard could/should be a rocket too, and maybe those pieces come together to really improve things.

I am just not sure there is enough depth. We are a Coleman injury away from an identical LW make up to last year minus Benson, and a Yamo or JP injury away from Archibald or Kassian in the top 6.

I think the best case scenario – with the roster above – is we have a similar year to last year, grinding away to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the Pacific, but possibly highlighted with a much more robust trade deadline splash. You could certainly make the argument though, that the time to cash in some futures for impact is right now, in the Summer, and not at the deadline. Salary cap and money management issues impacting those decisions for sure.

TheGreatBigMac

It would be nice to have one more top6 winger who can play LW/RW for your injury scenario and push Yamamoto down to 3RW.

If we can’t find that, I hope Kassian returns to form and I play Kass with McDavid. He was successful with McDavid before, that’s why we signed him and that makes our 3rd line deeper. If it works Kass’s value goes up too.

buck yoakam

DeBrusk/Mcdavid?Kassian…hmmm

Sierra

My goodness. Who plays D on that line?

godot10

DeBrusk failed as a top six winger in Boston playing behind one of the top lines in the league, and with an excellent right shot centre in Krejci.

McDavid with two 3rd line scrubs. Some solution.

Moonlight Overthrow

I agree. Improvement, but not quite enough.

I like where LT is going, but an upgrade on Koskinen is also needed, along with a 1RW (I’m likely in the minority here). Push JP to 3RW to play with Wennberg and it becomes a dynamite forward group. Kassian would also need a new home.

The list is likely too long to complete in one summer, especially for someone like Holland, who seems more patient and methodical. Even with those moves, the defense likely isn’t good enough.

TheGreatBigMac

I think JP at 3RW was the plan last year but Turris made that untenable, another reason to pick up a 3C.

Last edited 4 months ago by TheGreatBigMac
Sierra

True, but had there been a proven 1RW I don’t know if JP would have been moved up the line-up

Moonlight Overthrow

Likely not. I think Reinhart would fit well on McDavid’s RW and I’d give up a good amount to get him.

Reinhart
Yamamoto – reunite DRY line
Puljujarvi – plays with newly acquired 3C
Archibald – limited EV minutes, big PK role
Kassian – traded

That’s good RW depth.

godot10

The OIlers need to spend their money on two top six left wings. They have no prospects coming on left wing. Puljujarvi actually helps McDavid far more than he is given credit for.

The Oilers right side is decent, and Lavoie is coming.

ArmchairGM

Holloway is close, Savoie is not but has upside.

ArmchairGM

I think Lavoie played LW in Bakersfield this year? He might be a candidate for LW in 2022 if the depth chart is weaker than RW.

Moonlight Overthrow

Like I said, I’m likely in the minority, but I don’t see JP as a permanent fixture on that first line. His game has developed nicely, but I’d like better than “decent” in that spot.

Get JP a veteran centre (Wennberg, Kadri, etc) and a capable LW and it finally resembles forward depth.

Reinhart can play 1RW and 2C in a pinch.

Holloway arrives mid-season, IMO.

OriginalPouzar

I believe Lavoie plays LW in the NHL – he was used as such in the AHL.

Also, Holloway is coming on LW – he may end up as a center but I anticipate he plays more LW if McLeod pans out.

Last edited 4 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Sierra

Isn’t Benson the prospect coming on left wing? There were so many comments calling for his call up and insertion into the line up.

Holloway is LW and many posters are calling for him to make the team out of camp or be in the line-up sometime during the season.

That said, I agree that the Oilers need 2 legitimate NHLers at LW

OriginalPouzar

Sam Reinhart, with a reasonable extension in hand (5-6 years at $6M or under) is something I give up the 1st rounder plus a legit prospect like Sammy for (and I LOVE Sammy).

Kass at $750K retained is tradeable I would think.

Harpers Hair

How long do you think it would take the LAK to beat that offer?

defmn

I agree with this. But this is why I disagree with your comments about Holland not moving faster. The team really has no excess depth for trades and the cap mistakes that were inherited & added to in some measure means there is always another team able to outbid the Oilers.

I don’t like it but I think that is where we are.

And I know there is always a trade here or there that the Oilers could have beaten but it doesn’t mean the trading team was interested in improving the Oilers.

When teams are forced to dump contracts I think they first look outside their division & then look for teams unlikely to go anywhere in the near future. There are exceptions, of course, but no GM is looking to help a team with Connor McDavid on it.

Harpers Hair

This is a bit of cherry picking but just off the top of my head…Tyler Toffoli, Nate Schmidt and Devon Toews were all picked up last summer for peanuts but Holland had already pissed away three draft picks and was too busy signing a raft of poor bets to fill out the bottom six.

I really think this comes down to poor pro scouting and the lack of an effective analytics department.

Would any team that was accomplished in those disciplines have signed any of the players he acquired or given Kassian that contract?

I don’t think so.

Harpers Hair

Even more.

Lots of talk that the Sabres want a top 10 pick + in return.

Since all the top D are likely to be gone by the time the Kings pick 8th, they will be left with the choice of mostly centres of which they have an absolute abundance.

Since Blake (echoing Doughty) is already on record as saying it’s time the Kings made some aggressive moves using that prospect pool as currency, I would think the 8th and a top C (not Byfield) prospect would get that done.

Also lots of speculation in Vancouver about flipping the 9th pick for Vancouver boy Reinhart who says he wants to play on the West Coast, but I’m not sure they would have the right prospect to get that done.

Bag of Pucks

Nuge @ 5.75M per?

3Gs in 21 Playoff Games

Ken can find better ways to spend the money imo

jp

8-3-7-10 in his last 8 playoff games though. 🤷

JimmyV1965

The league is littered with guys who didn’t score much in their first couple playoff runs.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

So you are saying it should be easy to replace Nuge’s 5×5 numbers? And at a reduced cap number? I agree.

jp

This season’s 5v5 numbers, yes. His numbers the 3 previous seasons, no, not at all.

Bag of Pucks

I’ve always wondered how much Nuge’s likability impacts the perception of his production.

He doesn’t drive his own line against the toughs anymore. He’s not a consistent sniper. And the team has 2 Art Ross worthy Cs above him on the depth chart.

And yet some Oiler fans would rush to the bank to re-up this player on a cap strapped team. How is this balancing the roster exactly?

The Oilers need big fast physical Ws that will forecheck like demons, drive the net hard, and consistently convert feeds from Connor and Leon.

Pro Scouting needs to find the next Alex Tuch (or three) and acquire those players with the RNH and possibly Klefbom money.

For years, the Oilers developed talent that ultimately blossomed elsewhere. If this team is going to get over the hump, Holland needs to reverse that paradigm.

Reja

He should be giving a home town discount after being overpaid on the 7 year deal. Tell me how does someone who’s been in the league 10 years but still can’t win a face off when it matters. Is Nuge to nice of a guy to cheat on the face offs like everyone else.

Sierra

Well said BoP.

Bag of Pucks

RNH epitomizes why the phrase “Get good players. Keep good players” lacks much needed context.

In a Cap system, it has to be, “Get good players with value contracts; Keep good players with value contracts.”

Nuge is a luxury the Oiler can’t afford. He’s the third sports car in a garage with winter approaching and nary an AWD or 4X4 in sight.

Last edited 4 months ago by Bag of Pucks
Cowboy

Hall is at 25 games and 17 points and had less points then Nuge this year. Lots want to pay him 6+

To say Nuge is not one of the top UFA Left wingers available I think is incorrect.

Whats that worth, especially what are wingers worth altogether, is a different question.

What would you pay Nuge?
Not sure if you are pro or anti Hall but what do you think he should be paid?

This might be the thing I am most interested in- the valuation of oft talked about LW Hall vs. NUGE.

I am of the belief that Nuge does more to help the oilers win and is who I would choose, Hall is good too just not my choice of the two.

Full disclosure I have not for a day been upset with the Hall trade, felt there should have been a 2nd come back with Larson and was appalled with how the money was spent but still feel Larson has aided the Oilers success far greater than Hall would have.

Does not mean I dislike the player just clearly value him different then some here

Bag of Pucks

What I would pay Nuge wouldn’t be sufficient to keep the player as I’m not an advocate of paying big cap to what is essentially a tweener as opposed to a key roster need. He’s miscast as a consistent sniper on the W, he’s not a dominant offensive C despite his draft pedigree and his defensive acumen is greatly overrated imo. Elite two way Cs need to win FOs and contest the slot strongly on the back check.

What Hall will or won’t be paid is immaterial to RNH’s value imo. Hall has won a Hart Trophy. That will get a player paid whether or not the contract is strong value or not.

OriginalPouzar

Nuge was one of the best even strength producers as a LW for 3 months in 2020.

Yes, absolutely, that was nowhere to be found this season but, at the same time, one needs to look at more than just this season (just like one needs to look at more than the 3 month stretch last season).

There could be a myriad of reasons for his down season – for all we know he is or has been dealing with personal or family issues – its not uncommon for NHL players to have one-off poor seasons due to external reasons – see Adam Larsson.

This player, at under $6M for a nice but reasonable term, I take it.

Cowboy

Agreed Hall will be overpaid likely due to a great season 3 years ago.

My question was what are they both worth as top 6 left wingers in your mind, not Nuge as a center?
I conceed that you feel Nuge is a center that does not win face offs and a winger that does not snipe but a player like Hall (again no idea your stance on Hall- just using him as the common measuring stick, is touted as an offense driver.

In the last 3 seasons Hall has 36 goals, 85 assists in 151 games or .8 ppg

Nuge is 66, 99, 199 games .83/game

You talk about 4×4 which I actually 100% agree on but to say a .83 ppg player is not worth 5.75m is tough to agree to

Bag of Pucks

I was talking about a four by four vehicle (analogy) not as the suggested contract and term for Nuge.

Cowboy

It was a great analogy and again I fully agree. The lack of grease, if you will, is my biggest concern with this teams future success.

My issue is the thinking he is not value at 5.75m.

i am not saying I do not agree with the targets but our awesome host has suggested Blake Coleman at 3.6+ million or zach hyman at 5.75 million. Nuge is younger than both and in the last 3 years has almost as many points as hyman’s total career and more than Coleman’s career- literally Nuge’s season this year 1s 1 point off coleman’s best.

Nuge is worth more than both these two. 5.75m i think is a damn good deal (depending on length, obviously)and would very much assume anyone else we get for that 5.75m is less valuable points wise.

Bag of Pucks

You realize that Hall has been slugging it out with bottom feeders like the Sabres and Yotes while RNH has been complimentary skill for 2 of the best C in the league, right?

Imo, that makes Hall’s production more impressive and Nuge’s decidedly underwhelming.

Cowboy

I don’t know, I heard that center in Buffalo Hall started the year with is pretty good…..

And granted I want more from nuge too and if the price is too dear walk away but 5.75 is fair

godot10

Note: Zack Hyman has 5 goals in 32 playoff games, playing with Captain Underpants.

Zack Hyman is Dallas Eakins all over again. Hype out of Underpants Central.

OriginalPouzar

$5.75M X 5 for Nuge? Sign it, now!

defmn

I am doubtful that gets it done. If the contract starts with a ‘5’ I suspect the terms has to start with a ‘7’.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

$5Mx5 and I’m a buyer. Otherwise, I put the money and term to work elsewhere.

doctoreye

Looking at these playoffs,it is obvious that defence is the key to winning.We should be signing the best big defencemen available.Players like Hamilton don’t come available very often.Remember Pronger effect in 2006?Adding two big defencemen through trade or FA is more appropriate than a 20 goal forward.The dynamic duo can score enough goals to win if we can keep the GA down.Build from the goal outwards!

rogue

I agree. While the forward unit needs to improve, the defense is key. One of my biggest issues over the years was that they were too soft in their own end of the ice. You can have a offensive juggernaut, but all the rules change in the playoffs and play gets way more physical, with minimal calls. Just look at McDavids penalty drawing between regular and playoff seasons.

defmn

All four starting goalies were 1st rounders as well. It is easy to find answers in tournaments but imo there are numerous ways to build teams that can win Stanley. Defensive players are the easiest in a capped league, though, as you point out. Offense gets paid and it is hard to keep the band together once contracts come due.

pts2pndr

Spend big on Hamilton and you won’t be able to afford to sign Nurse. Due so much cap tied up in Draisaitl and McDavid we have to have value contracts elsewhere. Unfortunately as I see it Hamilton is a luxury we can’t afford.

Jaxon

I’m looking forward to Tullio’s next season. He had a pretty good season in a lower level league. He was the top Pts/GP U20 year old in his U19 year old season. Brant Clarke expected to go in the top of the draft was behind him. Last season in his draft year he was one of the top in my Age and League adjusted Even Strength Projection of Primary Points:
OHL Quinton Byfield – 42
OHL Cole Perfetti – 36
OHL Marco Rossi – 35
QMJHL Alexis Lafreniere – 34
WHL Seth Jarvis – 32
USHL Sam Colangelo – 28
OHL Martin Chromiak – 27
OHL Tyler Tullio – 26
OHL Jacob Perreault – 25
QMJHL Mavrik Bourque – 25
OHL Rory Kerins – 25
Looking forward to seeing what he can do.

OriginalPouzar

Sean Patrick Ryan, who I trust quite a bit with respect to OHL valuations, loves Tullio and that gives me confidence in his potential.

It was good that he got some pro games in over in Slovakia so that his draft plus 1 was not a total waste.

Woogie63

Kahun’s stat line of 48 games 9 goals, 6 assists while playing with the top lines matches my eye test he was invisible many, many nights, he will need to be a value contract to stay

Yamamoto’s stat line of 42 games, 8 goal, 13 assists matches my eye test – tried hard but did not add secondary scoring. He is not going to earn a $2.2M contract, I would suggest after that year he might be a third line player vs. the minutes he got last year, he should get a $1,175,000 (like Jesse) contract for 2 years.

Bear’s stat line of 43 games 2 goals, 6 assists, matches my eye test – He looked like a young hockey player well slotted as 3RHD. Today he is not a 1RHD on a winning team he MIGHT be a 2 RHD but right now he is probably dry eraser in as 3RHD

defmn

I have made a similar argument several times in the last little while.

If the Oilers keep paying players for what they hope they will become they will never have the cap to pay those who have earned that money and will be forced to trade the guys who would be competent one step lower on the roster because they are eating too much cap for their performance – Kassian being the current exhibit.

I love Yamomoto – I think he is an elite 3RW on a contending team.

Kahun may well be a competent 3LW – which is what I suggested before the start of last season to some ridicule.

Bear complements Nurse quite well and it is not unusual to see unbalanced pairings where one guy pulls the other guy along with him but he needs to paid accordingly.

I see suggestions here of a Nurse – Hamilton top pairing which would eat up about 2/3 of the entire budget for dmen. Not sure that is a winning strategy.

“Aim higher” seems to be the rallying cry of the pre-UFA season but there is only so much money and 31 other teams with the same plan. As those teams lose out on their first choices they transfer those cap dollars to their 2nd choices and on and on. If Holland gets one ‘1st choice’ UFA signed this summer I think that counts as success since there are not 32 ‘1st choice’ free agents available imo.

‘Aim higher’ is a great slogan but for me the most important thing to do is to pick the position most in need of upgrade and see if we can get that fixed for term.

I would suggest that position is in goal. LW may have to settle for 2nd or 3rd choice again this summer.

godot10

Nurse can make nearly anyone functional on the 1st pair, like Pronger could. And like Hedman does.

Bear ideally slots as a 2nd pairing D, but he can be effective if he is paired with Nurse.

OriginalPouzar

By my eye, Kahun was more effective with McDavid than with Drai and I wish Coach T. would have given that combo more runway. In any event, I would think that Kahun would come in right around his QO of $1MM and, to me, that is a value contract. There is no reason not to qualify him. If he wants to try and negotiate a raise, well, then he might be sitting.

Yamamoto did have a poor year offensively but he had a PPG year (in 27 games) the prior season – that’s not to be discounted totally. I would suggest that his floor right now, today, is a high-end 3RW and PK guy. That’s worth an AAV of $2MM on a short-term contract. I don’t consider Jesse’s contract a comparable, that was a player essentially signed out of Liiga without any real history of success in the NHL and with a history of issues with the organization. That’s not a comparable contract.

meanashell11

Does anyone else believe they are slow playing signing Larsson and Nuge while they have already agreed to terms with a handshake ahead of the Kracken draft?

Randle McMurphy

That is certainly what it feels like.

I’m pretty sure its within the rules. The league must feel that the self-regulating mechanism is that GM’s are risk averse and will want to get important players under contract asap.

jp

I definitely thing so with Larsson. I think they’re legitimately still hammering things out with Nuge.

defmn

That would be my sense as well. I have no doubt that there are many such verbal agreements floating around the league this summer. Lessons learned from the Vegas debacle have not been forgotten.

OriginalPouzar

Perhaps with Larsson, I don’t think that is the case with Nuge.

Jaxon

I like Miguel Tourigny at #116, right in line with Pronman’s ranking (#117). He was on my list of players to pick in the last round last year.

TheGreatBigMac

pass, no *tiny* defenseman.

Jaxon

Yeah, he’s tiny, but there are a bunch of great tiny D in the NHL:

Tiny:
Matt Grzelcyk, drafted 85th in 2012, 20Pts in 37GP (44Pt pace)
Jared Spurgeon, drafted 156th in 2008, 25Pts in 54GP (38Pt pace)
Erik Brannstrom, drafted 15th in 2017, 13Pts in 30GP (35Pt pace)
Torey Krug, undrafted, 32Pts in 51GP (51PT pace)
Borderline Tiny:
Sami Vatanen, drafted 106th in 2009, 6Pts in 39GP (13Pt pace) – down year
Ryan Ellis, drafted 11th in 2009, 18Pts in 35GP (42Pt pace)
Quinn Hughes, drafted 7th in 2018, 41Pts in 56GP (60Pt pace)
Will Butcher, drafted 123rd in 2013, 11Pts in 23GP (39Pt pace)
Troy Stecher, undrafted, 11Pts in 44GP (20Pt pace)
Samuel Girard, drafted 47th in 2016, 32Pts in 48GP (55Pt pace)
Kris Russell, drafted 67th in 2005, 9Pts in 35GP (21Pt pace)

I’d say Krug, Gzelcyk, and Spurgeon are pretty good comparisons.

And, if there is one thing a tiny player needs to make it in the NHL it’s speed, and it looks like Tourigny is one of the fastest in the draft.

It’s a long shot, but everything is a long shot by the time you get down to 116th pick. Maybe he’s the next Spurgeon.

OriginalPouzar

Given the rosters of the final 4, I thought its been determined that 5, if not all 6, starting d-men need to be 6’2 and 200 plus and have 400 plus games of experience?

Jaxon

Exactly, so let the GMs of these players know it’s time to trade Cale Makar, Tyson Barrie, Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes, Samuel Girard, Torey Krug, Matt Grzelcyk, Ryan Ellis, Will Butcher, Jared Spurgeon, Adam Boqvist, Erik Brannstrom, Dmitry Orlov, Alex Goligoski, and Jamie Drysdale. Obviously, it’s impossible to win with these guys. They’re all too small.

Jaxon

It’s too bad they didn’t take a chance on him last year instead of forwards Filip Engaras @ 169, and Jeremias Lindewall @200, 2 more forwards without much offence after taking all forwards with their 1st 4 picks as well. Take a flyer on the small but fast and skilled D at that point. This year he was 2nd in Pts/GP among QMJHL D U19. Behind Cormier, drafted #68 by VGK, and just ahead of Jeremie Poirier, drafted #72 by CGY.

ArmchairGM

Aim Higher.