Do you remember what happened August 1, 2 and 3 in 2005? I’d hazard a guess most would get one of the three news stories correct, and many would get two. Three? Well, that’s a big ask.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Which draft prospects will be available when the Oilers pick at No. 19?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2021-22 roster projection, including trade and free agent targets
- DNB: How do Oilers fans feel about their team’s 2020-21 season?
- Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ next wave of prospects help them win a playoff series in 2022?
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- Jonathan Willis: How underappreciated Oilers defenceman Jeff Petry became a Canadiens mainstay
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
On August 1, 2005, the Edmonton Oilers traded LW Brad Isbister to the Boston Bruins for a fourth-round pick. That pick was eventually traded to (ahem) the Boston Bruins on August 30 for Yan Stastny.
You can be forgiven for misremembering that transaction because the next day Kevin Lowe brought in Chris Pronger for Eric Brewer, Doug Lynch and Jeff Woywitka. It was a franchise-altering trade, an absolute moon shot.
Next day, Lowe made another astute trade, dealing center Mike York for center Michael Peca. York was a popular player, useful, but Peca could suppress opposition offense like ringing a bell. He was an underrated part of the 2006 Stanley run.
THIS YEAR’S PRONGER, PECA
The Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks are the top candidates to make a Pronger or Joe Thornton trade this summer.
From those teams, possibly available talents include Jack Eichel, John Gibson, Jakob Chychrun. Anyone else? I’d love to see Gibson in Edmonton and Chychrun is exceptional when healthy. Not sure Eichel can be afforded.
There are other names I like, Filip Forsberg of the Nashville Predators was mentioned in the comments section last night and would be an excellent candidate for Edmonton. There are others.
JAMES NEAL BUYOUT
Jim Matheson checked with Neal’s agent and it’s crickets over there, and of course Edmonton has multiple buyout candidates (Mikko Koskinen, Kyle Turris, Zack Kassian).
We may also see some bloated contracts traded for each other, although I’m dubious about the idea. Zack Kassian for Paul Byron, or Kassian for Brett Connolly is interesting, but these are all men with something circled in red on their resumes at this time. I’m not certain anyone can identify the players who will pull out of their current spiral.
As for Neal, his contract comparable are names like Jonathan Quick, Adam Henrique, Duncan Keith and Gustav Nyquist. A couple of productive players in there, a lot of sweetener would be required (I would guess) to make these good things happen.
VLADIMIR TARASENKO
In the ‘no guts, no glory’ aisle of summer shopping we have scoring machine Vladimir Tarasenko of the St. Louis Blues. Per 82 games in his NHL career, the Russian marksman has averaged 33.6 goals. That’s an outstanding total. Over the past two seasons, he has played a total of 34 games, scoring 7 goals.
Injury is an issue, and the $7.5 million times two on the contract also noteworthy. James Neal’s contract is $5.75 million times two, that’s a $2 million risk that you can justify. St. Louis will get better offers, in fact my guess is there are teams willing to take on the entire deal in exchange for very little in the way of assets heading to Missouri.
Ken Holland badly needs to improve the scoring on both wings. Tarasenko’s cap hit, if Edmonton buys out Neal, would be around $2 million added to the cap. Would you do Philip Broberg for Tarasenko, a deal I saw proposed yesterday online? I would not.
TRADE FREEZE
Today is Friday, July 9. The buyout window is open, none that I’ve seen so far but it’s 7:15 as I write this down. There is a trade freeze that is put in place July 17 and that lasts through to the expansion draft. Teams can trade between July 17-22 but only with the Seattle Kraken.
As it stands today, Adam Larsson is the biggest name vulnerable to expansion from the Oilers side. We are now in the final week before the protected lists must be submitted to the NHL. Seattle would be wise to pursue Larsson from the Edmonton list.
PROTECTED LIST
I have my own ideas about who should be protected, and no one I know agrees with me. Having grown up as an outsider, this appeals to me. The signing of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has changed the flavour, but the general thrust is to leave as many appetizing players available who are not part of future plans. Here is my list:
- Goalie Alex Stalock
- Defensemen Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones
- Forwards Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, Dominik Kahun
Stuart Skinner, William Lagesson, Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Devin Shore. As of now, Edmonton is losing Adam Larsson.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A packed Friday show on the Lowdown, we start at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck Podcast will join us to talk about changes in hockey television on both sides of the border. Matthew Iwanyk will talk Euros and CFL, and Frank Seravalli from Daily Faceoff has plenty of rumours this morning. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Elliote Friedman…33 thoughts.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-nhls-olympic-participation-stands-off-season-begins/
Friedman:
Nice little add-in there by Elliotte.
Elliotte reporting CHI was looking at Bear or McLeod for Keith. I think I know why this trade hasn’t happened yet, one side appears to be phoning in from Pluto.
Well you can see why they’d *want* those guys..
Everyone seems to forget.
If you take a Real bonafide SNIPER from another team that has a history of scoring, he should POP with McD.
The only real sniper McD has had is called Draisatl ?
Give Conner more than scrubs and it will be Magic.
PC booted Hall booted Ebs
Give MCD a Tarasenko and you will see 50 Goals . FULL STOP
Yes, I suggested the other day that a healthy Trasenko could approach 50 on the Oilers.
Of course, medical records won’t/can’t confirm, if this Trasenko is the same as the one 3 years ago.
Team scouts watching every shift of Taransenko in the playoffs and at the World Championships should be able to best asses.
We don’t know what we don’t know on this.
Tarasenko controls his destination.
It won’t be Edmonton.
I am not evem saying Tarasenko.
Get Conner a proven 25 G guy and there is good logic in thinking that guy can get 40.
Amy scrub that plays with him scores.
RATTIE
ARCHIBALD
KASSIAN
MAROON
get him a real winger
Nugent Hopkins has two 24 goals seasons and a 28 goal season – he didn’t bump close to 40, in fact, the opposite.
Ty Rattie never scored more than 5 goals.
RNH is not a “Goal Scorer”.
Conner has never had a true goal scorer.
This will be year 7. Get the man some help!
Nuge is not a “true goal scorer” but he is a proven 25 goal guy without playing 5 on 5 with McDavid and wasn’t able to increase with McDavid.
I agree McDavid needs more help on the team – its coming.
Hollaway doing the Ryan Smith front net and corner presence. First time I’ve ever heard the nickname of Golden Retriever and he’s all ours. Please don’t say he needs to be buried in Bakersfield for a year. We’re already going to lose Benson with out ever seen what he’s made of. Francis is a sharp cookie he’ll take Benson. Book it! Sometimes Mr. hall of famer Holland pisses me off.
Buried vs. developing
Not saying he “needs to be” but that is a logical and reasonable projection.
As you note, McDavid has played a lot with Draisaitl. And Draisaitl is a goal scorer.
(just under 50% of McDavid’s 5v5 TOI, and close to 60% of his total over the last 5 seasons were with Draisaitl).
So he’s actually had quite a bit of help. It’s just that the ‘help’ may be better served on his own line.
Still, it’s difficult to keep those 2 apart. 3 Oiler coaches now have had a tough time doing it. Tippett has been the most successful (at playing them separately and in more general terms), but 45% of McDavid’s 5v5 minutes under Tippett have been with Draisaitl.
One thing that’s really nice about Nuge re-signing is that he can (if needed) play 2C and allow Draisaitl-McDavid to remain a thing. I was hoping (even if it wasn’t Nuge) that one of the two top 6 adds this offseason would be able to play C, rather than two pure wingers.
Nuge hasn’t been great as 2C, but I think he’s suffered more than McDavid has from lack of help. He played mostly with McDavid this year, and with Draisaitl in the 2nd half last season. As a C though, his most common linemates over 3 seasons have been Lucic, Chiasson, Yamamoto (with Draisaitl), Puljujarvi (largely with McDavid), Kassian, Khaira, Neal, Maroon, Rattie (with McDavid) and Gagner.
Anyway, this isn’t a post about Nuge. The Oilers will be adding at least one top 6 quality player this offseason. Depending on chemistry and how things shake out, it’s entirely possible that the Oilers could have a decent 2nd line that doesn’t include either of McDavid or Draisaitl, allowing them to play together.
Maybe McDavid gets the true goal scorer to play with, even if the Oilers main UFA add doesn’t end up playing with McDavid.
Can’t disagree with that.
You post this like you know, which, of course, you don’t.
Is Benson still a “Substantial Prospect?”
Every bit as much as Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddysh.
When Yanni Gourde was Benson’s age, he was looking at 3 more AHL seasons…
Katchouk and Raddysk are both 6’2″ and more than 220 pounds.
and?
Heavy hockey…not milquetoast hockey.
Like Zack MacEwan hockey?
Name the last Russian superstar who played in a backwater Canadian market.
Alexei Yashin?
Pavel Bure?
Is Tarasenko a superstar?
Mogilny Canucks
430 goal scorer Kovalev on the Habs Russians like Quebec
I forgot about Kovalev on the Canadiens..
If he doesn’t want to play with Connor or Leon I don’t want him anyway, hockey isn’t his first priority. Connor and Leon shouldn’t have to tolerate players with that mind set given how competitive they are.
Especially given Tarasenko only has to ‘endure it’ for two years or less.
He’s a New York kinda fellow he’s not coming to Edmonton.
Larianov, Zhamnov, Markov
I almost forgot Khabibulin!!
I apologize if this has been discussed already. I read on Sportsnet (about the expansion draft) that:
“Note: A player with potential career-ending injury, and who has missed more than 60 consecutive games (or who has been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) cannot count towards a team’s player exposure requirements without approval from the NHL. These players may be deemed exempt from selection.”
Does this mean that Klefbom may be exempt from the draft? These decisions don’t normally favour the Oilers, but Klef did miss 60 consecutive games this year.
The league already put out their exempt list – Klefbom is not on it.
Thx. Too bad, though. Klef seemed to fit the criteria.
Beer League heroes got trashed the other day.
I don’t know why. Aggregates info and gives their opinion. Opinion.
Lives overseas and is engaged with the best NHL team.
No chance is making any money doing it, maybe covers costs.
I admire the effort put in there.
Not like the slackass that runs this place!
I’ve got no problem with what he does as far as aggregating info – I venture in every evening to read it.
I do find he uses mis-leading titles quite often which is obviously a way to get people to click and he often uses very bad form when essentially pasting an entire article from The Athletic
I very often disagree with his view and put all but zero stock in to his “personal sources’ but, as far as aggregating content, he does a fine job.
Posting entire articles is bad, I haven’t noticed that or read them. I don’t dive deep there. More that it’s benign mostly.
In particular when they are pay wall articles and its same day.
So you had an epiphany.
You used to do this all the time.
I did nothing of the sort – not even close.
Pot meet kettle.
This is some encouraging news (relative to other things being speculated) on the potential Keith deal.
https://www.bleachernation.com/blackhawks/2021/07/08/oilers-and-blackhawks-going-back-and-forth-on-duncan-keith-trade-and-other-blackhawks-bullets/
Keith talks have gone stale supposedly.
I do wonder who leaked it in first place?
Hadn’t seen this when I posted the link above (which is from yesterday).
There is zero reason for Holland to rush here, even if he wants Keith.
He’ll wait until after the Kraken expansion draft. Wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of deals or done but won’t happen until the draft
Agreed there are lots of done deals around the league, but if Jones and Keith are the main pieces what advantage is there to waiting?
I was thinking more Holland doesn’t like what the Hawks are currently offering. He can be patient here because it seems there aren’t any other strong suitors, and there are other options to fill 2LD with UFA right around the corner.
If Kelfbom done Keith’s a coming. Holland loves his veteran Defencemen always has always will. Book it!
OK – I am now fully on board with acquiring Goodrow:
https://twitter.com/bgoodrow23/status/1413654812214939656
Barclay Goodrow
@bgoodrow23
·
1h
Sooo how bout now??
Quote Tweet
Damien Cox
@DamoSpin
· Sep 28, 2020
Not as difficult to win a Cup when there’s no road games, no travel. Still a difficult thing to win it all. Tampa gave lots of sweat and blood to make this happen. But let’s not compare bubble hockey with the real thing.
Why does the name Brett Connelly pop in my head when I say the name Keith. I’m calling it now both these players will be Oilers.
IF Tareasenko is healthy, The Blues apparently from LTs show will make available the med files, IF you can run in there on the cheap you do that.
I would not trade Bro or Samu. Their potential value being big excellent skating D with potential offense is just too high for this deal and would be unrealized now.
But I would trade something like Yama and a lower pick for Tarasenko and a second. The cap space is the extra value to St Louis.
Yama is fine but not as good as Tara or having the value of the D as I see it. It gives St Louis a US born skill player back (appeal to the fan base) that is really young. No risk to the GM unless he can find a better deal. It’s a decent trade given.
I may also do JP, but while I don’t think he will ever be a polished RW, he’ll always be an odd duck, I think his value overall to the team is a lot higher than Yama. There is so much that is unusual and good to his game. Not to mention that he is an Ent on the ice.
I’m not sure JP can stay with Connor, but I’m pretty sure Tara would fit in pretty well, and is a tank even if he can’t play the rough game anymore. Tara can go to the net as he pleases and can finish.
Its tough because one can only glean so much from the medical records.
The records may say, as has been reported, that the 3rd surgery, the correct surgery, has “fixed” the shoulder but has it really and, if it has really fixed it, is it really 100% with no loss of mobility, powers, flexibility, etc.?
I would hope the Oilers’ counts are watching every one of the 4 playoff games and the games at the World Championships – every one of his shifts.
Kailer plus is likely a reasonable trade suggestion (at least to start) but, damn, the Oilers need Kailer when they are winning cups – championship level teams have guys like Yamamoto on their 3rd lines, making an impact.
I’m not saying “no” if there is some semblance of assuredness on health but the Oilers are still fairly light on young skilled players/prospects for the top and middle six.
I wish the team had one more year of knowledge on Broberg, Samurukov, Holloway and Lavoie.
It’s too bad we didn’t get to see isles Habs final that no one would watch in US
instead we got a final that almost no one watched.
https://twitter.com/richarddeitsch/status/1413495879240065026?s=21
And since Tampa won the league won’t make any changes
It was boring dead puck era hockey.
If I was ESPN or Turner I would demand changes. I think some executives are gonna lose their jobs over those contracts
Yes. If I were them, I would demand an Oilers-Rangers final. Two high scoring high event teams filled with super-stars including the best two centres in the game.
Naturally, the team with the current 3-time Art-Ross Trophy Winning best player in the world and new face of the NHL would win in an exciting game 7 on their Home Ice.
Yes, yes I would.
Habs played balls to the wall and deserved all the accolades there reserving. Sounds like sour grapes to me.
I am still hoping for a Lindholm + Gibson for [insert Oiler’s assets] trade.
Sign Goodrow.
Sign Coleman.
Sign Larsson.
I might have heat stroke.
Team in front matters but its been a long time since Gibson was average, let alone elite.
That would be a very risky contract.
Playing on a good Edmonton team and being free of infamous goalie whisperer, Dallas “Donuts” Eakins = high likelihood Gibson bounces back to being a quality starter.
But yes, there is definitely risk involved.
It would take less cap hit to overpay for Ullmark who has been a good goalie notwithstanding a crappy team. Could get him for cheaper (i presume) and no assets out.
We need to trade or buyout Mikko.
Would rather play out the last year than buy him out.
Would love to trade him – not sure if there is a taker at 50% retained – if there is, it will be done.
Friedman has wondered if the Leafs might being interested in Tyler Bertuzzi to replace Hyman.
At 26, he will age out of his prime before the Wings are contending.
He scored 21 goals the past two seasons.
I wonder what it would take. I wonder if Holland is interested?
How about an HFBoards style multi-player trade that sends out Koskinen and brings back Bertuzzi with a bunch of pieces going both ways to make the deal work?
Sounds expensive like a 1st, a prospect (Kemp/Rodrigue/Savoie), and a player Kassian (1.5M retained)/Kahun/Jones
I think going after Bertuzzi would be a better plan than backing up the Brinks truck for Hyman.
How much cheaper will Bertuzzi be though? He’s RFA coming off a $3.5M deal (also was injured most of the year and had back surgery in April).
I *think* he’s UFA eligible in 1 year, so it might take $4-5M to sign him for multiple years.
He is younger than Hyman, but I don’t believe he ‘under control’ for long. Definitely an interesting option though. Holland would know him well, presumably.
When thinking about the protected list, lets not forget there need to be two forwards that meet the minimum required threshold that are exposed. 40 games last season or 40 over 70 over the last two seasons. I presume those numbers are pro-rated down given the shortened seasons.
If Kassian and Archibald are protected, do we get there?
Kahun and Khaira would meet the requirements I guess but only if they are qualified and there are rumbling that both might not be.
This may force Holland to protect someone like Benson over someone like Archibald (or Kass) in order to meet the exposure requirements.
Turris, Shore an Neal (if not bought out) would all qualify too, no?
On the protected list:
1) I think the org protects Skinner
2) I think the org protects Kassian and Archibald over Kahun and Benson.
I don’t agree with 2 above but I think the org values Kassian, even with his contract terms.
I think there is a good chance that Benson will be selected, even if Jones is available (through a Larsson signing or other d-acquisition). There are going to be lots and lots of d-man available to the Kraken and I’m not sure Jones will be of much interest to them and they may take a flyer on Benson.
I will be unhappy if Benson is picked – his time as an Oiler is now.
His time was last year.
His time never will be Reja?
Ken has showed the ability to pivot instead of doubling down on a mistake. I think there’s a chance he leaves Kassian exposed.
Archibald is a 28-year-old $1.5m bottom sixer who looks like a buzzsaw, but gets outscored 3:2…
With the fancy stats team at the Kraken, I’d be shocked if they would even contemplate Archibald or Kassian.
I am optimistic that we don’t expose Benson after all of the development time he’s had.
Much of the 2019/20 Archibald numbers are attributable to Riley Sheahan.
Archie/Khaira outscored the opposition in 2021.
Archie also touches various game states including PK, lead protection and provides a high “give a shit” level that, if Kassian had, would make him a legit star.
Tough to know who the Kracken would select.
I was just thinking though, regarding their interest in Keith, there would be a lot of layers in their decision to acquire him.
If they traded for him, it allows Chicago to protect another Dman.
If he goes instead to the Oilers, it most likely means Jones is exposed, which he may well not have been otherwise (pending Larsson).
So any interest in Keith from the Kracken is likely being affected by more than just their evaluation of the player.
IF they value the truculence which I doubt as they haven’t seen it in a couple of years, protect Kassian.
If you care about quality hockey, you protect Benson. He has far more upside as things stand.
And could be far less expensive over years before he may have the chance to get paid.
If that is wrong, he’s blown up which is a bigger win.
I absolutely think they value truculence and players that can play “playoff-type hockey” – in that regard, that’s why I think Kassian will be protected as they value the player that he “can be” and “has been”.
I value that player too (even though he does come with warts, even at his best) but I haven’t seen him in a long time and given Kass is now 30, with kids, signed for term…….. I don’t imagine that player shows up for most of the 240 regular season games left on his contract.
Assuming no top 6 RW acquisition, I would LOVE if Kass could that 2RW job over Kailer on merit and I’ll be hopeful but won’t expect it.
As we all know, I have generally been against a Taylor Hall acquisition/signing over the last few years – premise being concern over the contract for what are likely “regression years). I had always “assumed” the contract would be long term and big money – 6 plus years for $7M plus – quite a bit of “name value”.
Of course, recently on this platform, I have indeed brought up Taylor Hall as a potential target. The organization now has cap space to acquire a legit top 6 winger and, importantly, the market has changed. I have been assuming that Hall would still probably get 4-6 years but there is the potential for it to be under $6M.
Now, reports are that he may test the market and look for 3-4 years and I would be 100% on board with 3-4 years at anything under $6M.
Frankly, his production over the last few years doesn’t warrant $6M per and there is still injury and regression risk but that is a contract that I think can work and having Nuge and Hall as top 6 LWs, well, that’s something special (especially since, instead of being the top 6 forwards on the team like they were in the past, they would be 3rd – 5th best forwards on the team).
What about Nuge money and term?
I would not be in favor of 8 years for Hall, even at closer to $5MM.
I don’t think his regression will be as “graceful” as Nuge’s – he’s older too, remember.
Was Nuges regression graceful?
There is a big difference between skill/play regression and having an off-season.
Of note, Nugent-Hopkins still produced more goals and points than Hall this past season.
You may not like it but going from 37 EV points to 15 in only 13 fewer games is pretty significant regression
There is a big difference between skill/play regression and having an off-season.
OP, this post is music to my ears.
I figured you would come around and kept a warm seat for you on the Taylor Hall bandwagon. There are even healthy snacks, a yoga mat, and some dumb bells! 🙂
Ha – I’ve never been against Taylor Hall, the player, on the roster – just always had an issue with the potential contract.
I believe the parameters of that potential contract have changed markedly over the last couple of years.
Does the name Jonas Siegenthaler ring a bell? He’s a left D that today signed a 2 year extension with the Devils ($1.125 cap hit per) after getting traded to them at the deadline last season from Washington. He is connected to Jeff Petry since the Capitals picked him with the 57th pick in the the 2015 draft that they got from the Rangers, who got it from Edmonton (for Cam Talbot) who got it from Montreal (for Jeff Petry). It’s amazing how those trade webs spread. It’s like the 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon. 105 games so far in the show.
No but the name Quasimodo rings a bell.
If the 3 August news stories were Isbister/Stastny, Pronger, and Peca, why did you show us a picture of Ryan Smyth?
Because it’s always time for a pic of Smytty.
Its a great photo too!
Any word on Holland and Klefbom/his agent talking yet?
That was supposed to happen/have happened around now, wasn’t it?
From what I’ve heard from Nugent-Bowman on a podcast, Klefbom’s agent told Holland that he won’t have a proper update on his progress until the fall. Oscar is apparently trying to work toward coming back but nothing will be known until then.
Sucks but hey, if everything works out then maybe Oscar could pull a Kucherov and be back for the playoffs. Lord knows a fresh Dman will come in handy at that point.
I believe Klefbom’s agent told Nugent-Bowman that there won’t be a solid update until the fall but I believe that Holland was supposed to speak directly with Klef (and his people I assume) this week or next.
Yeah I’m not hoping for much, but it would still be nice to get an update.
Seems pretty clear Holland is proceeding as though Klefbom won’t be returning (the Keith talk).
David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) Tweeted:
Contract negotiations between the Oilers and G Mike Smith are ongoing. I believe an offer has been tabled by the Oilers, but Smith’s camp will likely counter. Also hearing EDM has been exploring the goalie trade market, which may have more to do with a possible Koskinen buyout.
https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1413554494726619145?s=20
I feel I have to jump in and defend LT which is dumb because he doesn’t need my help. What LT is doing by protecting Stalock over Skinner is putting a tasty and tempting option in front of Ron Francis. He’s hoping Francis grabs Skinner because he sees more value in Caleb Jones or Benson or Legs.
He isn’t suggesting Stalock has a better future than Skinner. He’s suggesting Benson does.
That’s certainly how I understood it. Not sure I agree though.
That’s fair. Just too many people yelling “why protect Stalock over Skinner” who seem to be missing his point.
But lots of fair debates about dangling Skinner as a strategy not the least being “Skinner may turn into something”.
Then protect Benson
Who?
Robert Guillaume.
Hahaha literally laughed out loud. Nice one Reja, Nice one!
Hahaha mint!
I feel I must preface my comment with how much I respect LT and I am eternally grateful for his place on the triple dub-ya. He and my fellow posters have and continue to teach me so much and there is still so much more to learn…
No need to defend LT, everyone has an opinion and are entitled to it. No one is wrong by disagreeing, that is what is great about LT and this place he has built. Everyone is accepted here, if they are respectful. I don’t think anyone was disrespectful to our kind and generous host, but a few of us expressed our opinions and that ran counter to his. Nothing really to see here, unfortunately this medium loses something when it comes to communication clarity and of course most of us fall so far from LT’s command of this medium.
My opinion is simply the sunk cost, time and effort of drafting and developing a player is a journey well worth it, especially when they are still very young and available for deployment for cents on the dollar. Cap space is invaluable for contending teams and we have guys in this category who could (if they are ever given that opportunity, dammit) deliver.
It is hard to know what you’ve really got right under your nose if you send them away without a true audition. It is not about falling in love with a prospect, it is about providing a real opportunity to those within the system, and truly supporting them by trusting them while placing them into a position to succeed. So many organizations ultimately fail to do this and it is aggravating to see.
These guys could be found money, but if they are given away, how will we ever know. As well, in Seattle it is more likely they are buried than with Edm, so it could be one of those incredibly frustrating scenarios where a deserving player never gets a legit opportunity, IMO.
With this in mind, and my opinion has not changed since January, my list looks like LT’s only with Skinner in for Stalock.
Folks Tarasenko has no trade value. He’s hardly played in two years and has a big cap hit.
He’s ‘asked’ for a trade furthur lowering his value.
St Louis doesn’t have to protect him because he doesn’t have a no movement clause according to Capfriendly, hence the trade request I would wager
If he goes anywhere it won’t be for much. Unless Chia gets a job in a quick hurry
Nurse for Tarasenko.
The trade is 1 for 1
Done! Might have to retain on Nurse though.
Athletic polled some GMs
response they got is they knew he is available but are not interested
Between 16-17 and 18-19 (three seasons), Tarasenko ranked 9th in EV goals/60 at 1.14. Ovechkin was just ahead in 8th at 1.17. Jeff Skinner was third (1.23), Arvidsson second (1.33), and Matthews first at 1.52.
In the last two seasons, Arvidsson has declined to 0.88 and 0.59 EV goals/60. Tarasenko, in limited time, has declined to 0.44 and 0.34 EV goals/60. That dramatic a drop tells me that shoulder is a real issue. His shooting percentage in those years dropped from a consistent 10.0% plus to 5% then 4.6%. Ouch.
Kings paid only a second and third rounder for Arvidsson. That looks like a fantastic trade; yes he may be declining but even if he only partially rebounds from last year that is a very solid player. Based on the Arvidsson trade, Tarasenko can’t be worth as much as a second and third round draft pick, IMO. Arvidsson is also on a sweetheart deal paying 4.25 in each of the next 3 seasons. Factor in the injuries and the fact that Tarasenko’s production has really gone off a cliff in his past two seasons, the cap hit…I agree with you. I think his value is quite low.
Here’s the other problem with a Tarasenko trade: there are a lot of options out there. Guys like Coleman, Tatar, Hall, etc. only cost money and they are surer bets to contribute something. If you really want to trade for a scoring forward, Filip Forsberg is a much surer bet.
That being said, here’s what’s funny/intriguing about Tarasenko:
You take his last two seasons and calculate his EV points/60, it’s 1.7. That’s second line production for a guy playing with one arm.
Definitely agree with LT that Tarasenko is not worth Broberg. But I am intrigued. I am intrigued because if Tarasenko can give you 1.7 points/60, that’s fine for a second line forward. If his shoulder is truly better, the upside is terrific (he is only 29), even accounting for some decline from his peak years when he was one of the league’s most dangerous snipers.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t have him, 50% of what he was if he could play most of a season is a big upgrade on the current right side, but the swap would be along the lines of ‘future considerations’ and salary retention.
Important to recognize that Arvidson was playing on a team that lacked finishers.
His shooting percentage (He’s a volume shooter) is likely to regress to the mean.
The LAK are a team of finishers?
Well, the Ontario Reign did score the 2nd most goals in the Pacific division of the AHL and it seems that all top players on that team will be transported to the NHL with almost instant success.
Of course, the Reign did give up the most goals in the division (league) as well.
Good thing they’ll be playing with a D and goaltending that gave up fewer goals than the Oilers last season.
You should really look before you post things. Helps with being correct, if that’s what you’re going for.
Oilers: 11th best in the in GA – 154
LAKings: 21st in GA – 169 (in a weaker division)
Also,
Oilers 8th in GF with 183
LA kings 27th in GF with 142
Team of finishers.
Rose coloured glasses on again I see!?
They will be.
Blake is looking for another top 6 forward and their prospect pool is full of high scoring prospects.
Yeah we’ll see.
If Tarasenko is healthy, none of the guys you mentioned can carry his jock strap. But his health is a real and spectacular question.
I like your line of thinking LT. Identify long term solutions.
Last year I do believe Holland was in the mix on several
players, but he was bumped on them all.
This year he has had to watch dollars, but he also cannot afford to come away empty handed.
With 32 teams fishing, this won’t be easy. Some extra dollars will have to be spent to win the day.
But back to LT strategy, if they are long term solutions to the roster, and extra $ pain can be justified.
particularly once you compare it to losing out on perfect targets and go back to spending money on band aid solutions.
Obviously with about 20M in cap space, this should be and needs to be the summer that 2-3 difference makers join the roster, and puts the Oilers in every contender discussion.
Lou has no money to steal the likes of Pageau and Brassard out from under us, so we’ve got a chance. ?
I agree with the long term thinking that is what Holland tried last year with Markstrom and probably what he does again. Go after one high profile target and go higher on term instead of cap. Then if it works out you’ve got a long term solution with hopefully a reasonable cap and that keeps your window open longer. The trick is to aim for the right target!
He has to make trades. You aren’t filling all the holes through free agency. You can get a winger and maybe a goalie through free agency, the other holes have to be trades.
I seen a lot of “tough to play against “ defensemeb this post season, but I didn’t see any on the Oilers.
I always thought Josh Manson would be a good right hand target, and he can be a SOB to play against.
You don’t think Adam Larsson is tough to play against (or he just wasn’t in the playoffs where, yes, I agree, he struggled as compared to the regular season)?
This might be a little crazy, but what about signing Tony DeAngelo to a ~$1M, 1 year deal? I know there’s a lot of negativity surrounding the player – the accusations of racism give me serious pause – but he roomed with Nurse in the OHL so perhaps a similar arrangement might help.
If you’re going for an offence-heavy player, why pay $5M+ for Barrie? DeAngelo’s 19-20 season produced 30 5v5 points in 68 games (4th in the league) with an elite 53.57 IPP (3rd in the league >750 min), well ahead of Barrie’s production this year.
I hope that young man gets himself to a point where he is accepted back into the game. But given his complete lack of remorse and his repeat offending, I wouldn’t bet on it. Doesn’t seem like he’s had that epiphany that he’s the problem.
There are some reclamation projects that are worth it, not only for the player you get, but for the person themselves and the optics of how an NHL organisation franchise can help troubled players. Kassian, for example. People around the league knew his substance addiction and that underneath that brash, bullying exterior, he was actually a nice guy – and he realized he was the problem and accepted help.
DeAngelo? No idea, but he seems like a racist thug. It never was a good look for an organization to hire those, but even less so now.
No amount of offence and fancy stats should balance out the person he is.
Like you said “no idea”. Way too much misinformation and people love a good twitter character assasination party.
If research turned up a decent bet, his offence could fill out a roster but I don’t see him as a cornerstone piece.
No, there wasn’t any misinformation on what he did, he’s been suspended multiple times for slurs and physical assaults. This is all documented. I just have no idea if he’ll ever realize he needs help. Then to get that help. Then to put the work in to get back to the league.
I wouldn’t want to be Kenny explaining to Caleb and Darnell why he brought an unapologetic racist into the fold. Tough sell.
This is the player we’d be getting.
https://deadspin.com/n-y-ranger-idiot-who-enjoys-a-good-racial-slur-rage-qu-1846026701
It would be interesting to know what Darnell thinks of him, being a former roommate and all.
I didn’t know that. Yes, it would be interesting.
That’s some really strong evidence.
i don’t know what’s wrong with the world today but I’d start with all the Twitter bullshit.
I dont know the man. But I do know how much people love their high horses and love a good smear.
You can see it here everydsy.
IMO it’s hard to win tough tight games when your defensemen can’t defend.
That’s why ‘offensive’ D change teams a lot. And two way types rarely.
No Bobby Orrs or Paul Coffeys around, yet.
I suggested something along the same lines a week or so ago. I think a one or two year ‘ show-me’ deal might be what the doctor ordered for him. Holland has a history of reclamation projects and he might be a very cheap but effective option on the back end. The fact that Nurse knows him would be a giant plus.
Everything else aside, at the end of the day I want to be able to cheer for the Oilers without any sort of moral quandary. Hockey is a game, ridding it of unapologetic bigoted abuse is more important than winning.
It’s a good thing you weren’t a fan of them in the early Eighties.
Some Kraken notes including possible interest in Keith and Tarasenko.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/kraken/kraken-mailbag-could-vladimir-tarasenko-duncan-keith-be-in-side-deals-will-two-arena-scoreboards-set-trend/
A fine post from Yost:
https://www.tsn.ca/can-the-edmonton-oilers-run-on-duncan-1.1665908
Nothing we haven’t already covered, but clear we’re looking at a former- not current- Norris candidate.
Rumblings that Chicago want Caleb Jones and to not to retain salary. Apparently Kenny isn’t biting. I will give him public kudos if this is the case. Source is Saravelli.
It’s nice to know at least that Caleb Jones has some value around the league
There trying to reel in the big fish Seth.
Caleb Jones has all but no value vis-a-vis a Seth Jones acquisition – in my opinion.
I find those narratives baffling.
I’m curious who they are willing to trade for Seth
So Barries hit was 3.75m Larssons hit was 4.167m and that amounts to 7.917m.
I know the decision is Dougies and he’ll have lots of options but I’d gladly go 8m-8.5m for him if he’s willing to come here.
Nurse Hamilton would be a fantastic top pair.
Stopgap Bear
Leftorium Bouchard
Would anyone go 9mil per?
Its that daydreaming time of year..
Nurse – Hammy
Keith – Bear
Rusty – Kenny Special
7th – Bouchard
Kris Russell cannot be even a semi-regular starter for the Oilers next season
No, “shouldn’t”. 🙂
Haven’t we been saying that for 5 years basically?
Even over the course of his $4M x 4 deal he was -11 at 5v5 on a team that was -62.
I hope he doesn’t play much either, but man he takes a lot of flack for a guy with totally fine results.
There’s no reason Bouch shouldn’t play
Got to get the speed wobble out at some point
He’s paid all of his dues for a player it that talent level
Nugent-Bowman has been very clear that the organization will be providing a clear path for him this season – he will play and play alot.
Makes sense given he’s shown to be an NHL player in the opportunities he did receive. I anticipate he’ll prove to be a big part of the team very soon.
Insanity at it’s finest!
I think what made Peca such an underrated part of the ’06 team was the fact that for most of the regular season he was incredibly underwhelming. Not surprisingly since he was 31 and had not played or skated during the lockout like many other players around the league had been doing.
He got better as the season went on, and by the time the playoffs came around he was back to his usual self, which was a beauty.
That line of Torres-Peca-Pisani was an absolute joy to watch in the playoffs.
One of the things I miss most about that team was having Horcoff, Peca, and Stoll down the middle who all were great in the faceoff circle. Reasoner in the regular season was terrific too, and it’s a shame he was moved at the deadline that year as he was a heart and soul Oiler who deserved to be a part of that run to the final. Pouliot was a pretty good faceoff man in the minors but mono kept him from getting a chance to be our 4C instead of Rem the Gem
If I remember correctly, I believe his underwhelming regular season had more to do with being unhappy than being out of shape. I believe Peca himself said how he was very unhappy with being traded to Edmonton, and openly discussed leaving as soon as he could (which he did as an UFA to T.O. at the end of the year). But as a veteran, he realized that shots at the Cup are limited and really began to focus/try as the year went on. He was great in the playoffs…but has never spoken glowingly of the Oilers or that run as far as I know.
Would the first round pick, Yamamoto and a bad contract like Neil or Koskinnen be enough to get Tarasenko? Would it be worth it?
Not a fan of this. IMO it would not be worth it.
My best offer for Tarasenko would be Samorukov and Kassian. Samorukov and Neil would be okay too.
It sounds like you prefer 4 years of a Neal buyout at $1.9M to 3 years of Kassian the actual player at $3.2M.
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised 🙂
Do you understand the meaning of “best offer”?
My “best offer” is Samorukov and Kassian.
It means I do not think Samorukov and Neil is as good an offer as Samorukov and Kassian. So it means I think Kassian > Neil.
I guess I do not understand then.
Best offer => okay too is unclear IMO.
Thanks for clarifying though.
Why don’t you like Samorukov?
No. But I would do something along the lines of Yamamoto for Conor Garland.
First, I apologize if this comment is redundant and been made previously. Lowetide, your protection list highlights an important point for me, i.e. that the Oilers have room to protect another quality forward without losing an important asset. To me the strategy should be to sign Larsson and then trade Jones (and others assets if needed) for the best quality forward available that is not protected. The Oilers would have room to protect this acquired forward. I would think any team that is in danger of losing a quality forward to Seattle for nothing would bargain.
I do think this was probably Ken Hollands strategy going into the off-season.
Bob Stauffer strongly suggested a pre-expansion draft trade with a young defensemen getting moved for a 3RC.
Did the Duncan Keith revelation delay/derail this plan?
Correct me if I am wrong, but if the Oilers acquire Keith prior to the ED, they would need to protect him. This would seem to mean that signing Larsson prior to the ED would not make sense as he ( or Bear) would be available in the 7-3-1 scenario. This is where things get sticky for me as unlike the Oilers, the Hawks would presumably like to move Keith before the ED.
Thus the only way acquiring Keith makes sense to me (before the ED) is if they think they can sign Larsson after the ED. They roll the dice.
Too late. I believe Keith may already have ED?
No. Wait for it. Kenny prefers two crap contracts for a young defenseman. Keith & Strome for Jones and another prospect. Kenny thinks Strome can change to a righty over the summer if he puts the work in?
#kennysnotagrinder
Impossible. Jones is being traded for Keith?
#intangibles
For those who don’t know, the Kraken CAN sign Larsson in the window and then make him their pick from Edmonton.
https://www.nhl.com/news/next-steps-for-vegas-golden-knights/c-289968452
Quoting the article: “The Golden Knights also have the option to sign any unprotected unrestricted free agent or restricted free agent during the expansion draft window.
They are the only team that has the ability to sign an unprotected UFA or RFA from another team between 10:01 a.m. ET on Sunday and 9:59 a.m. ET on Wednesday.”
Ouch. That hurts. Vegas really got the golden goose eh?
If ever a team were going to semi-circumvent the expansion draft rules, it would be the Oilers with Adam Larsson this year.
Adam Larsson offer pre-expansion draft 4 x$3.5m
Adam Larsson offer post-expansion draft 4 x $3.75m
An extra million of walking around money if he’s willing to wait 3 weeks.
Vegas has tons of money. They just do. I’m not trying to scare you, I’m just saying this is real.
Thank you. You’re right. It is sobering.
If I’m Larsson, even if I love playing in Edmonton, I’m wanting to see the number from the Kraken. At the very least it affords me (Larsson) bargaining power to lord over Holland.
Hence why Holland makes his meeting with Barrie public? To re-assert his bargaining power?
Too late… I’m scared
VGK have 11F / 5D / 2G signed with $6m in cap space left. There is a need for a player like Larsson on the team as Theodore could then play LD. If Larsson signs with a cap hit of $4m then the team has $2m to sign 2 more players to league min contracts.
VGKs making Larsson an offer is more troubling than the Kraken. Warm weather, zero state tax and a winning team.
Larsson would give them 19, a roster is 23.
But they can move cap out. Apparently are trying.
Larsson is a polarizing player.
I would be beyond curious to hear how the smart kids (Kraken analytics, Vegas analytics) value Larsson.
We know that a lot of the Oilers Twitterlytics department and many of the analytically inclined here don’t place a tremendous value on Larsson.
This thread is a bit confusing as it seems to suggest that Vegas has some UFA/RFA window and not just the Kraken. The article is from 2017 and describes the Knight’s process regarding the UFA/RFA signing window in 2017, which will be the same for the Kraken this year. I think the only advantage that Vegas has this year is they are exempt from having a player taken in the expansion draft. I believe that Vegas has no UFA/RFA signing privileges, but correct me if that is wrong.
It’s from 2017 and it is the Vegas rules. They are identical to the Kraken rules. Substitute Kraken whenever you see Vegas and you’re good to go!
The Kraken could:
1) sign Larsson in their negotiating window before the expansion draft – he would become their pick from the Oilers
OR
2) pick Larsson in the expansion draft and he would become their property but a pending UFA. This would give them continued exclusive rights until July 28 but, if they don’t sign him, he could sign with the Oilers at that time.
Which GM’s are known for moving fast/early, David Poile, Jim Rutherford, Doug Wilson ?
Dubas? Sakic?
Going to be fascinating to see what Brian Burke/Ron Hextall do in Pittsburgh.
As intriguing as Tarasenko is, I’m not sure that’s the best route for this club. Too many what ifs and if onlys for my liking. Unless the Blues were to retain 3/4 of his contract then I would take a flyer on him. Not happening but a flat cap and expansion draft is going to really mess with teams this year.
I think (hope) Holland has something up his sleeve he’s obviously not sharing. His free agent signings last year were out of the blue and I would think he might be taking the same approach this year bearing in mind the impact of the expansion draft.
Mr Larsson should hopefully be signing on the dotted line shortly. That will at least clarify that portion of the blue line for the next few years. That boy is a beast and I would hate to lose him.
Aside from Holland, I’m going to be really curious to see how BriseBois manages his tightrope this summer…I think the vultures will be circling.
I would not be surprised to see Stamkos get traded.
Stamkos took a discount to stay, has a full NMC and declined last year. Do not see that happening.
Time for Holland, and the other GMs, to totally decimate the TBL.
Tampa has plug and play prospects ready to step in.
Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddish have been marinating in the AHL and are NHL ready.
If they lose 3 forwards as projected, they will be just fine.
Not meandering?
TOTALLY different players from Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody, I’m sure.
Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddish equate to Tyler Benson – in fact, its arguable they are lesser players/prospects based on their pro careers so far.
If they are “plug and play”, have been marinating and are NHL ready then so is Tyler Benson – which he is.
I would move heaven and Earth for Tarasenko. He would be McDavid’s Kurri full stop.Tarasenko is a beast and would excel in big games and playoffs.
I keep beating the drum of a kid line (with Yamo and Benson) and a cheap but reliable 6-10 min-a-nite 4th line with veteran PKers. This affords us big $ but smart acquisition of players at the top 6 fwd, top 2 def and #1 goalie.
Tarasenko is worth an overpay buy not 1st round picks. That’s a team’s lifeline.
I would offer Bear and Lavoie or Marody and a 2022 3rd for Tarasenko 2 mil retained.
I would look to replace Bear with a smart UFA signing.
Getting Tarasenko sends a message to other UFAs we are serious about winning this year:
RNH Mcdavid Tarasenko
XXX(Coleman) Draisaitl JP
Benson McLeod Yamo
Nurse XXX(Hamilton)
D Keith Larsson
Dreger reporting Toronto interested in Hall.
Weve officially entered to make shit up as you go along part of the season
It’s like late night TV hosted by Elvira…
Friedman reporting Toronto is interested in Tyler Bertuzzi as a replacement for Hyman.
Everybody is reporting Toronto is interested in everybody whose name is familiar to the casual fan in Toronto.
There, I think that covers it.
That’s Dreger’s M.O.
For a so called Insider, he rarely breaks news of any significance.
Thats all just Fandango.
And not the good (ZZ Top) kind.
(nor the Procol Harum or Steve Miller kind)
nor the Freddie Mercury kind.
It turns out Eklund was a trend setter after all. 😉
It will be lots of fun when Holland signs both of Larsson & Barrie and then Bear becomes the target for the Kraken . Expect the unexpected .
Sounds like worst case scenario
Really , you’d rather Bear than Larsson & Barrie ?
I’d rather Bear then either of those defenders, Larsson will be paid too much for what he is and while Barrie put up the points I believe a Bear/Bouchard/XX right side will find the Barrie points and be a bit more complete on the 5×5.
I’d love to see Larsson in the XX spot.. There’s no chance he accepts the 2.5-3mil max I’d offer him for 3 years at most, he didn’t make a damn Winnipeg Jet pay at any point during the 4 game sweep.
The Jets entire defence group looked more bruising and punishing to play against then Larsson did, maybe it’s the long line of punishing defenders of Oilers past that I’m judging him against, maybe it’s the sunk value in acquiring him, maybe it’s the age and breakdown that’s building up speed. But I just don’t think this team will not lose much by not having Larsson out there, especially after the playoffs where he was more of a gentle pylon then a fierce 3 tooth gator.
yes, especially considering age and AAV
Surely you’d trade Bear and expose Jones in that scenario.
“Kevin Lowe brought in Chris Pronger for Eric Brewer, Doug Lynch and Jeff Woywitka.”
Is that the last time the Oilers were on the right side of a 3 for 1 ?
Three draft picks for Cam Talbot?
If we lose Larsson, it totally resets how I envision the off-season going. I’ve kinda been thinking of that as a gimme. Would open up the possibility of an upgrade at #1 RD, which wouldn’t be the end of the world. Slots Bear better at #2. Wouldn’t be the end of the world at all, but I do have a soft spot for the Swede.
This is the only way I could find losing Larsson acceptable, by signing Dougie Hamilton, which in my view is going to be next to impossible. The contract starts with an $8M already minimum and if there’s a bidding war I could see it going to $9.5M.
I’d love to see them target Hamilton, but the contract is gonna be ginormous!
What if you signed Barrie as 1RD and Martinez as 2LD
Nurse-Barrie
Martinez-Bouchard
Samorukov-Bear
Perhaps, but it’s rumored/out there that Martinez wants to stay in the United States.
Out of Barrie, Bear, Larsson and Bouchard, Barrie is the 4th best defenseman.
Every coach Barrie has ever played for has played him 21+ minutes a game.
We’re at 6 head coaches and counting. Terrible evaluators of defensemen all, apparently.
What is the playoff record of those teams? Yes, Barrie is a useful player on a non-contending hockey team.
It’s absurd to pin the playoff failures of multiple teams on one player. What of McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Matthews, Marner, Reilly, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog?
Barrie is +6 at 5v5 on all those losing teams too by the way (23GF-17GA, 58%GF in his playoff career). It sure doesn’t look like he was a problem.
Barrie lead the league in scoring for a defenceman and got zero Norris votes. That tells you all you need to know about how awful Barrie is defensively.
My Lord. A little black and white today are we?
‘Lead the league in scoring but no Norris votes’ = ‘Worse than Bear, Larsson and Bouchard’. Maybe I need to check my math.
I read this all the time and I am not sure it is true in today’s game where transition is so important.
Maybe it is closer to the truth to say that Barrie is the 4th best at defending out of that group?
I’m not certain if that is exactly true either but I think it comes closer to capturing the sentiment for many on this blog who tend to totally ignore his offensive contributions because they are hung up on the ‘defense’ part of his job description and twist themselves into all sorts of configurations trying to explain why he isn’t really important to the career offensive seasons enjoyed by his most common on ice team mates.
I mention this because I see more than a few guys interested in trying to sign Danault this summer – a guy with a career high of 13 goals – for a salary not that different than what Barrie may sign for. The argument is that he is very good defensively which is the same argument used to dismiss Barrie – only in reverse.
A more extreme example would be Hall whose offensive abilities are often exalted here as being ‘able to push the river’ while ignoring the fact that ‘mediocre’ would be a generous description of his defensive abilities.
Anyway, this is a long winded explanation of why I think that exceptional ability in one aspect of the game is often regarded so highly by teams while ‘two way players’ tend to be less famous and make less money while also being essential to winning.
You need both the Larsson’s and the Barrie’s and two way dman if you want to be able to win games no matter how the other team wants to play it.
It takes a mix to balance a roster.
Fair enough, but there is also Bouchard on the roster who is likely to be pretty close if not better offensively than Barrie.
If we can package Neal and a little something for Henrique, I think that would be a great trade. Henrique, although a little expensive, can be a solid 3rd line center. His 1.8 5v5 P/60 on the Ducks last season would rank 3rd among Oilers forwards (you can guess behind who).
On Tarasenko, I would only trade for him if he was fully healthy. In the last two seasons, Tarasenko’s play hasn’t been as good, and only playing 34 games in the last 2 seasons is concerning. Maybe if the Blues retained.
I don’t understand why some protect Stalock instead of Skinner in the expansion draft. Skinner is a much better and younger goalie, and I think he has real potential to be at least a 1B/backup in the NHL. Stalock on the other hand is more of a #3 goalie. His SV% looked average in Minnesota, but you have to remember that he was behind some very good defensive teams. His GSAx was quite bad.
Neal or Kassian plus for Henrique with a bit retained is a deal I have a lot of time for.
Kassian for Henrique straight up actually sounds pretty fair.
LT: “As of now, Edmonton is losing Adam Larsson.”
Well, no sugar coating here, that would truly suck. The obvious selfish reason is I love this player and what he brings. For the team, we have no others in line with his skill set who can play this season. The not so obvious is it probably means Holland circles back to Barrie… not good.
The only other option that got my attention was Neal for Adam Henrique. I’ve mentioned him a couple times now and I actually think he would be a good to great addition for 3C (possibly 2C in a pinch) duties.
Kraken draft Larsson.
Larsson signs with Edmonton when signing window opens.
Oilers win, Kraken lose. Doubt Francis takes the chance on coming away with nothing from the Oilers.
As I understand it, Seattle has a window to negotiate with Larsson once lists are submitted. If they sign larsson, and they can overpay, Larsson becomes the player chosen from Edmonton’s list. Seattle can talk to Larsson before the expansion draft. That’s my understanding.
I believe you are correct, however I think KH will sign Larsson soon and protect him over Jones. If he doesn’t that would be a HUGE loss on our D core.
Or Larsson and Barrie leaving leaves perfect cap and roster room for Hamilton?.?
Larsson is definitely the D that the Oilers want to keep, and he has expressed an interest/intent to stay. However, from the Oilers, would the best player that the Kraken could acquire be the top scoring D in the league last year? Barrie might be easier to sign than Larsson and be a better way to market a new team.
The Kraken could:
1) sign Larsson in their negotiating window before the expansion draft – he would become their pick from the Oilers
OR
2) pick Larsson in the expansion draft and he would become their property but a pending UFA. This would give them continued exclusive rights until July 28 but, if they don’t sign him, he could sign with the Oilers at that time.
I’d have lots of time for Henrique if Neal was going the other way.
A hockey crazy town craves transactions from the team, buy-outs, trades, free agents signing, I suspect Ken Holland doesn’t care how entertained the fan base is this summer.
Well said. Holland hanging out in Kelowna and not even thinking about the fan-base.
Hanging out in Kelowna with Duncan Keith??
Holland is in Vernon.
Keith is in Penticton.
I heard they are on bicycles doing the Kettle Valley Railway together.
Are Ference and Eakins with them too?
Not sure. But I heard Stan Weir is with them. Apparently he’s carrying all the beer, and his bike!
Nice!
I think Holland picking Broberg at the draft proved that he doesn’t “care” what the fan-base thinks – he’ll do what he thinks is right.
I’m sure he knew, with certainty, that Broberg pick would be met with mostly criticism.
Yes, agree that Holland doesn’t care what we fans think.
Nor should he, beyond trying to ice the best team he can.
I just read an article on another oilers fan page that the Hawks are asking for Bear.
If I see one more Keith trade article I’m going to lose my mind!!!!!!
Why are we offering anything yes he would help in the locker room. But its him who wants to leave Chicago to move out west. He’s the one with with a no move. If I’m edm, cgy, Seattle or Van I’m telling them what can you do for me to take his contract. Not the other way around.
We don’t need him sound like we just want him. Wants are way lower than a need!
Chicago may have to tell Keith sorry Seattle didn’t claim you and the other teams didn’t make an offer good enough for us to move you so enjoy the next to years in the windy city and be a good sport.
Relax, it was just BLH stirring up things again. The article had references for most other comments, but then he just slid that in at the end with a ‘… I am hearing that …’. The guy may actually be more of a troll than HH. Is that possible – will monitor and report back.
BLH has no real sources. He just scours Twitter looking for something and then claims it as his own.
I stopped reading his nonsensical drivel. He doesn’t have sources and isn’t in touch with reality. In fact I find most Oiler media to not be that connected. They were all way off on the Nuge signing and most of them predicted him taking big $ from Seattle. I prefer reading Lowetide in the morning and look forward to it!
Only HH predicted that.
I do prefer Lowetide in the morning though.
yep, another “book it” prediction ;)…
I don’t know on who, but I do think Ken Holland is going to fire a significant load of powder early, and then take some time to reload his musket.
My guess for leading candidates Hall or Hyman.
One of these things is not like the other..
I think he’ll fire multiple shots early. Whether the hits all his targets is less clear.
Agree on re-loading and waiting for the targets to tire themselves out after that.
On the trade train
Go get Johnson from Tampa. They need cap relief. it will cost us nothing in return and Tampa will eat probably close to half his cap. If he comes to Edmonton and we pay only $3 million (Tampa retains $2 million) cap hit for a solid 3C who can play up the lineup, has all the intangibles we are told we need, championship pedigree and is a good solider (playing down the lineup and not complaining) and his fancy stats are great. Seems like a perfect fit for our 3C. Cost would be a low end expansion protected player.
If Keith has to come, then a creative option (I know it’s not the Oilers style to be creative because smartest men in the room syndrome) would be to deal Neal and Jones for Keith, both teams retaining half their salaries. then Chicago could buy out Neal and it only costs around $850k for 4 years for each team for Neal’s buyout. It saves saves $2.1 million per year for the next 2 years vs paying all of Keiths deal, and would be the same as buying him out without an asset back.
Oilers end up paying cap wise $3.65 million for Keith. Is it the best use of our cap (could you get Oleksiak for the same money?), but it at least lessons the pain of acquiring Keith.
And saw a trade option by a St. Louis writer (cant find the source anymore)
Tarasenko and a 4th
for
Broberg, Kassian and a 4th.
Uhmm. Lots of nice things about how Kassian is what St. Louis is missing. So yeah, lets do that.
#8 overall pick dman with significant upside for a maybe? No thank you.
Broberg, no. Niemelainen or less, yes.
Tampa has to move out a minimum of 3 big contracts. Retaining might bump it to four, doubt they do that. Some of the big contracts are a bit bloated now but all still have value. My guess is they try to move two contracts strait up to Seattle for nothing and get a small return on a third player.
Tyler Johnson’s fancy stats are far from great, especially on a stacked Tampa team.
In the last 2 seasons, Johnson has a negative Relative to Teammate xG and Corsi differential.
That’s not true (at least at 5v5).
CF% was positive then even.
xGF% was positive then negative.
Shots and real goals were the same.
On balance he was team average or slightly better, which is pretty good for a guy playing more 3rd/4th line than top 6.
Could be interesting if there’s salary retained and if he allows with his NTC.
Tampa is not going to eat half of Johnsons salary. They will package him with someone like Cirelli to get rid of the whole cap hit
Exposing him to Seattle is the easiest play.
Sure, it’s easy to expose him, but that doesn’t help move his salary.
No team is taking his full deal without a sweetener.
Seattle will.
He’s easily the 2C on that team.
Oh my.
I’m sure they’re interested since he’s a local boy, and a decent player. But Johnson at $5M isn’t good for team building.
I thought Francis had a crack analytics team and was going to fleece everyone..
I think we can start putting Broberg in the more or less untouchable category. Klefbom may never play another game for the Oilers and Nurse is a UFA in a year. I think management’s vision for the future has Broberg penciled in as a top-4 LD for the next decade.
I would be surprised if Tyler Johnson is not the Kraken pick from Tampa but, at the same time, I doubt it’s just a straight-up pick. I think that Tampa will be adding something in order to ensure he’s picked by Francis.
I think there are two legit internal options for top 4LD in the semi-near future – Broberg and Samorukov. I think Sammy is closer but I think Broberg will start to “pop faster” now that he’s in North America.
Yes, technically, Nurse is a UFA in a year but do we really think there is any reasonable chance he’s not re-signed long term? That re-sign probably happens before the 2021/22 season starts.
I think Samorukov will arrive first, but I would say that 2nd pair is seen as the ceiling for him and the floor for Broberg. Fair?
Sure, fair, but I don’t agree with the ceiling on Sammy.
As among Broberg, Samorukov and Bouchard, I actually think that Samorukov has the most “complete” skill-set. He does everything well, to very well – good skater, good shot, good offensive IQ, physical, aggressive defender, good puck mover, etc.
Of course, the likelihood that all those attributes translate at a plus level at the NHL is unlikely but, you never know – he’s got top pairing skills – probably tops out as a 2nd pairing guy but I can’t put the ceiling on him.
Fair?
I will definitely defer to your evaluation on Sammy because I know you watched a lot of Condors this year, and I am very happy that you think so highly of him. I am in no hurry to move him, I just think Holland is very high on Broberg and might see Sammy as somewhat expendable if the return is right.
I don’t disagree with you on any of that and Broberg likely tops out higher in the lineup than Sammy as he has a couple of attributes that are elite (including his skating) as opposed to Sammy that is just good to very good at pretty much everything – nothing really elite except, potentially, his aggressive defending.
You say no one agrees with you on you protected list. That is not true. Your list is my list. You made it sound as though you were going to protect Kulikov….
I suspect Francis is playing the long game with this team – no VGK this time around. So, he will want picks or young players mixed in with the vets and he will get these via trade after the expansion draft.
Brilliant on Kassian. Well done.
Kraken might even get a mid to late round pick out of Edmonton if Holland needs the extra cap space for something important.
Francis gets to make his pitch to Larsson BEFORE the expansion draft. He doesn’t use a selection to get that right. If they do agree on a contract in that time, then he becomes the de facto selection from the Oilers and they don’t lose anyone else.
Worse case scenario is they discuss numbers, don’t close a deal, picks Jones from the Oilers and later comes back to Larsson during Free agency period and signs him at that time
I always assumed that Kris Russell was given that extra year as a way to meet expansion draft eligibilty requirements. Your protection list would bear this out.
That is, assuming one of Jones or Lagesson gets moved before the expansion draft.
I believe the exposed player needs to have played 70 games over the last 2 seasons, so Lagesson doesn’t satisfy the requirement. Jones does, but it wasn’t guaranteed he’d get there when Russell signed. Of course, Jones also looked more likely to warrant protection a year ago then he does today.
Yes, I agree that Russell was re-signed, at least in part, to ensure expansion draft exposure requirements were met. Part of the premise was that Jones would be protected, or at least in the conversation to be protected and they needed to ensure there was a d-man to exposure so they didn’t have to expose Jones.
On that note, when thinking about the protected list, lets not forget there need to be two forwards that meet the minimum required threshold that are exposed. If Kassian and Archibald are protected, do we get there? Kahun and Khaira would meet the requirements I guess but only if they are qualified and there are rumbling that both might not be.
Turris, Neal, Shore I guess would take care of that if Khaira/Kahun aren’t qualified.
Not sure why I didn’t think of any of them.
I KNEW there was something I was forgetting about the Pronger Peca trades. They happened on my Birthday weekend! What a gift.
Lansky AND Seravalli ? Holy crap. Your show get a budget increase or something 🙂
Protecting a 32 year old backup in Stalock over Skinner makes zero sense and wastes 4 years of development right before payday. Poorly thought out.
My strategy is to give Seattle as many options as possible that are not in future plans. I don’t think Skinner is part of the future (nor is Stalock), so that’s the route I would take.
Skinner is not out of the running to help the NHL team. Tied for the best winning percentage in NHL history! Seriously though, Skinner is currently the best goalie in the Oiler system so why expose that?
Stalock was just Covid cover, expose him and send Francis a gift basket if he takes him.
34 year old Stalock, last games played were 1 year ago and were a poor 2 games in the most meaningful games of the season. Easily his best season was similar to Drieger’s this season and only 24 games, but it was 7 years ago.
Skinner, a local boy, a 3rd round Oiler pick, coming off a season with the most wins in the AHL, is 10.5 years younger and will be waiver exempt.
LT, what is the rationale for this decision?
My strategy is that if the Kraken take Skinner, they aren’t taking Lagesson or Khaira or whomever. I’m fine if Skinner is chosen. He won’t be, but I’m not protecting a player that isn’t on track to be a major solution.
So then Stalock will be protected as he is on track to be a “major solution”? You’re twisting yourself in circles.
We know Lagesson is a 6/7 dman and Khaira is a 4th liner as they have demonstrated this to a greater or lesser degree. One game of Skinner and you have determined his future? He has way more potential than any of the fringe NHLers you are attempting to protect through this strange move. I’d be delighted if SEA took Laggeson.
No. I would rather lose Skinner than some skaters, it’s one more piece that isn’t part of the future who could be of interest to Seattle. Probably not, but you never know.
So you feel comfortable dumping a young goalie who was #6 in the league in SP and GAA, and #1 in wins, GP and minutes. If this is mediocre for a young 3rd year pro then please tell me who qualifies as having potential. He’s ahead of where guys like Dreiger were at that age.
I much rather Lagesson or Khaira claimed instead of Skinner. Khaira is a 4th line player, and Lagesson is barely a 7D as a 25 year old, the same age as Draisaitl.
Skinner is a long shot to be a big part of the Oilers. Exposing him means someone like Lagesson, who as No. 7 D would play more than Skinner (who will be in Bakersfield).
I think Skinner has a chance to be the starter in January. Broberg is the #7D in Bakersfield. If there is a major injury to a top 4D, the OIlers won’t be playing Lagesson, they will be playing Samorukov or Broberg.
Jordan Binnington wasn’t on track to be a major solution. He was the black sheep goaltender of the Blues organization. Until he wasn’t,
Jack Campbell, drafted inside the top ten, finally an NHL goaltender a decade later.
One just never knows. As since one doesn’t know, one protects Skinner. He has an NHL starter physical attributes. He has an NHL toolkit. He has progressed at a reasonable pace. If the expansion draft were next year, I might agree with you, but year 4 and 5 are typically the deciding years.
Wow.
This applies to every player, no? Maybe Lagesson turns into Brian Rafalski. One just never knows.
The Oilers goaltenders to start the season might be a 39-year old Smith and a 33-year old Koskinen…so yes, Skinner could be starting in January.
Similar to what happened in St. Louis.
Fine, Oilers goaltending could go off the rails.
Do you see a situation where Skinner is actually *ready* to be a starter by January? I guess you do, you said it above.
I don’t see it. And I hope we don’t have to find out.
It is pretty much the make or break year for Skinner as an Oiler. He is a direct challenge in Konovalev for #1 in Bakersfield. The Oilers might draft Cossa.
There is a clear path to an NHL job as starter or backup next year, with Smith’s age and the expiry of Koskinen’s contract.
We find out a lot about Skinner this fall because of that.
It is go time. It is moving day. It is barge through the damn door day.
I can agree with most of that.
It’s definitely a critical year for Skinner. And it is possible he puts himself in the conversation for 22-23 backup if he can hold the Bakersfield starters job and have another good season.
Skinner never makes the NHL club.
He won’t be ready next season, but he is in a position to be a solution in 2022-23 in his 25 year old season.
I look at all the goaltenders Ottawa moved on from 1 or 2 years too soon. Examples: 1. Brian Elliot traded 8 years after being drafted in year 9 (4 years NCAA, 3.5 yrs in org) he played in 38 games and had a 0.940 save percentage with St. Louis.
2. Ben Bishop via St. Louis (not related to Elliott) 3. Lehner 4. Driedger.
Skinner is the best we have in the system today, based on results. Surely our GM can make better decisions than Ottawa’s have over the years…
Skinner had a good season but is not on a trajectory to become an NHL starter. I take the risk.
And, we don’t want him blocking Cossa 😉
As a starter in the AHL in his 3rd year Skinner is entirely on the glide slope toward being a decent backup or 1B kind of goalie, maybe a 20% of being an NHL starter. Khaira and Laggasen have almost 0% chance of being anything other than replacement level NHLers. Both might be waiver material this year.
Goaltending never been your strong suit LT. This is not well thought out and the total absence of any reward makes the small risk of exposing Skinner totally unnecessary.
I sense I have touched a nerve, it was not my intent to offend you.
I acknowledge that he could emerge as an NHL backup, and am saying that is a risk that is worth taking. Edmonton has two young goalies (Rodrigue and Konovalov) at the AHL level and could pick up a third option if the organization needs it.
Suspect we’ve established now that we do not agree, so let’s move on.
No worries. No nerves touched. I just don’t see the need to try indirectly protect 4th liners and 7th dmen we know will never be anything more. Skinner might be more.
By the way goalie x in my example is Nedeljkovic. Very similar to Skinner at the same age.
I get it, spent many years hoping goalies would turn out. I hope the Oilers protect Skinner and he turns into better than Nedeljkovic. He’s the outlier.
Skinner is the best goalie prospect we’ve had since Dubnyk. That isn’t saying much, but the kid has game. Could see him getting hot some day and putting a team on his back as a pro like he did in junior with Swift Current. Can’t afford to toss guys with actual potential after investing years in them.
LT……here is Skinner and another young goalie. Very similar results but also clearly not on your defined trajectory as a starter. Guess who?
Skinner
2018-2019 – 06GP 2.99 .879
2019-2020 – 41GP 3.31 .892
2020-2021 – 31GP 2.38 .914
Goalie X
2016-2017 – 25GP 3.40 .881
2017-2018 – 49GP 2.55 .903
2018-2019 – 51GP 2.26 .916
2019-2020 – 29GP 2.49 .906
The guy who the Oil should have claimed off waivers this year instead of Stalock?
Yup