The Edmonton Oilers are not in a cap crunch, do not need to worry about running a 21- or 22-man roster, and have the freedom to construct a balanced roster with layers of options. Nice place to be. Please read this.
LAST YEAR’S CERTAIN OILERS (16)
The three centers were there opening night, both goalies dressed. Zach Hyman did not play, the rest of the wingers dressed. All of the blue save Jake Walman (who was on the team but didn’t play opening night) jumped over the boards for the first game of the season on October 8, 2025.
Players who were not rated as certain (my original list is from August 6, 2025) included Matt Savoie, Ty Emberson, Noah Philp, Ike Howard, Alec Regula and David Tomasek. Scratches opening night included Walman, Troy Stecher and Curtis Lazar. Opening night lineup for 2025-26 is here.
THIS YEAR’S CERTAIN OILERS (19)
Center: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jason Dickinson
Wingers: Zach Hyman, Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kasperi Kapanen, Trent Frederic, Colton Dach
Defense: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Ryan Shea, Connor Murphy, Jake Walman, Ty Emberson
Goal: Frederik Andersen, Tristan Jarry, Devon Levi
I count 19 certain Oilers at this time. Among those we will have to see about are Shakir Mukhamadullin, Spencer Stastney, Alec Regula, Mathieu Joseph, Mattias Janmark, Ike Howard, Josh Samanski, Quinn Hutson and Max Jones.
My guess is the final four are Mukhamadullin, Ike Howard, Josh Samanski and Mathieu Joseph. Put Mattias Janmark on injured reserve or waivers, the rest are flying to Bakersfield.
Is this a Stanley Cup winner? I think it’s shy.
Stan Bowman has from now to the deadline to find answers, and of course he’ll need to see how well the summer tweaks perform during the regular season. I think the club needs to steal a player though. Something like Kent Nilsson from the Minnesota North Stars 49 years ago, or Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks a decade back
Will the team lose a player to waivers? I’ll say a defenseman gets taken by another NHL team, and maybe a pre-season trade to get something in return for a waiver worry.
Is it possible we get more value in Max Jones than the main target Frederic? Who would have thought Carrick who was a throw in on the Henrique deal was the asset to keep.
Seeing as Frederic has been negative value since he was given that contract, you personally or anyone one of us are providing more value to the Oilers on ice product, let alone Max Jones.
This is a big year for Frederic who was totally miscast by his coach last year. Most star players are going to do there thing in the top top with PP-1 OT minutes etc. it’s the bottom 6 that a coach can make or break a career. For all we know Frederic will go out there and do what Mike wants him to do and quietly scores 14 goals. Frederic-Jones-Dach-Joseph-Dickinson-Janmark-Kapernen-Clattenburg-Howard-Hutson-Samanski-Shakir-Emberson-Regula-Stastny. These are the players that need to impress Mike Babcock for ice-time and opportunities.
Max Jones played some good hockey for the Oilers in the 2nd half last year and one can argue he was better than Trent Frederic in that time. I can’t disregard that – it happened.
At the same time, we know that was a complete disaster season and floor from Frederic with mitigating circumstance and it may have been “peak Jones”.
Peak Jones was many year back with a high of 19 points. Peak Frederic was 3 year ago at 18G and 41 points – their ceilings are not in the same stratosphere despite Jones’ draft position.
I hope both of them score 10-12 this season – I expect Frederic will get there and I hope Jones plays well enough to get enough games.
Isn’t this what Babcock does well? If anyone is a diehard Leaf fan or a longtime Red Wing fan what is it that Babcock does well? Is he good with young players. I have no idea what Hyman told the other core members about Babcock coaching techniques. Could this be a reason Nurse waved his no trade clause or did Nurse want to be in charge of his destiny before next year? All I hear is Babcock is harder on fringe players than star players. This seems normal is the grand scheme of coaching. From Scotty to Shero to Arbour to Sather to Iron Mike to Babcock to Sullivan to Maurice they all have their methods to motivate you. I don’t hear any Mike Commodore jilted woe is me stories about these other coaches and the lengths they went to winning. Every coach is asshole at times ice-time is the ace in the head coach sleeve.
No, I don’t think that Babcock is known for specifically targeting fringe players. One of his most famous targets of Johan Franzen at a time he was scoring near 30 goals. We know of the famous issues with Mitch Marner – he wasn’t a star yet but an important organization top 5 drafted piece.
Babcock wants players to do what he tells them to do on the ice (systems/structure) and do so consistently with full effort.
You seem to think the likes big guys that hit but that’s not really his thing – taking the puck away as opposed to getting a bang in, that’s more his thing.
If Joseph is so strong defensively I wonder if he might be an option for 4c. I believe he has played some as a center. I have no idea if he’s any good at faceoffs. But wouldn’t that be something 🤔.
I don’t think the’s ever really played center at the NHL level.
The Oilers have legit centers, including Samanski.
They don’t need to try and convert a winger to a center unless multiple injuries hurt.
There was mention of trying Dach at center.
I was wondering if they’d consider Joseph.
Just thinking outside the box.
I don’t want them to try Dack at center either – of Janmark or Frederic or Joseph. These are wingers and they should not be asked to take on position responsibilities that are not their forte.
As far as Dach, at least he has recent experience as center, I don’t believe Joseph has any such – he took close to 100 face-offs one year in Tampa a long time ago.
Google AI says there were 4 Cup winners that were over the cap in the playoffs: 2015 Hawks, 2021 Lightning, 2023 Knights, 2025 panthers. 4 times in 11 seasons, and it’s not an option anymore
Cup winners often get more kudos than they deserve. The Canes are a good team, as are all teams that get past the second round, but they had a lot go their way, as is usually the case. Good fortune and being healthy enough are central to getting there. If hockey is 50% luck, the Cup winner had plenty of it
Team cohesiveness and attitude are also big, I think at the core of most championship teams. Having the right coaching staff that fosters a winning attitude and instills a team culture and disciplined play is always necessary for the players to play at their best
When these things come together, every playoffs we see players rise up and play better than they normally can, and return to normal next season. To me the Oilers, when the stars were at the stage that they were ready to push hard, have not had the coaching at a high enough level. It’s been having three of the best players going super nova that has driven them, and when they couldn’t do that the drive ran out of gas
So sure it would be great to add another difference maker, but I don’t see many teams that are stacked with them, because cap. Some teams might be deeper because they lack the high paid stars, but you also have less talent overall, and the coaching to get the most out of those lesser non super star talents
And you have to be in the perfect position to add that extra impact player and be able to play them in the playoffs. I think Babcock and Smith doing the job well and getting things right is going to add the elements that have been lacking
More players contributing because of identity and the team playing the system and structure well, there are talented other players. The young ones need to take a step up. The older ones need to lead and mentor and be disciplined. The goalies will have a better environment, which has also been lacking at least in many key moments, so that should be better as well
I think it’s clear the players see it this way as well
This totally ignores prudent cap management as a strategy.
Had McDavid not extended for far less than market value, the Oikers would have zero cap space and would be frantically attempting to shed players.
The cup champion Hurricanes have close to $10 million in cap space and are resolutely refusing to allow Nikishkin to upset their cap structure.
Once he is traded, the Canes can add a difference maker anytime they choose adding to their already immense depth.
This ignores exactly the point I was trying to make
Well answered.
Your point about luck, cohesion & team play define the last 5 winners as I see it.
lol, no kidding, right.
Without the ability to exceed Cap in the playoffs teams with no state income tax have an even more pronounced advantage, and that advantage is already large.
The same AI states:
Stanley Cup Final Dominance: Over a recent 12-season span leading up to the 2026 postseason, a team from a “No Income Tax” state advanced to the Stanley Cup Final 10 times.
Slot Share: Despite making up less than 20% of the entire league (6 out of 32 teams), tax-free teams have locked down nearly 50% of all available Stanley Cup Final slots in that stretch.
Championship Ratio: Between 2020 and 2026, teams from tax-free states (Tampa Bay, Vegas, and Florida) won five out of seven Stanley Cup championships.
The Carolina Hurricanes have a massive tax advantage over the Edmonton Oilers. While Carolina ranks 24th in player tax burden (making them the 9th most tax-friendly team), Edmonton sits near the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 16th in overall tax burden.
This made me feel very old for a moment, until I remembered how old I actually was in 1987.
Anderson-Messier-Magic Man. What a line that was for us in the playoffs. Out of all the players I miss it’s Anderson he was always making things happen like a John Tonelli. Hyman kinda fits the Ryan Smyth itch McDavid-Gretzky Draisaitl-Messier Bouchard-Coffey nobody fits the speed with calculated chaos as Glenn Anderson.
We had our Glenn Anderson but traded him one for one for Adam Larsson. That would be Taylor Hall
Yep the Hall trade was so demoralizing. When I first heard the trade I was asking myself what else did they get. The Hall trade was a sad day for the Oilers faithful.
It really was, I remember getting home from work and my phone blew up with buddies asking if that’s really all we got for Hall. The fact that over half the GMs in the league said they didn’t even know he was in play and would have offered more is the maddening part of this story.
The one that should get everyone is that our host, dear Mr. Tide, said that they stole “Dustin Penner from the Anaheim Ducks a decade back.”
Next July, it will actually be two decades back.
A decade back, Connor was a rookie…
Damn. i meant Patrick Maroon. 🙂 Seriously. Man, Aging sucks.
Between Maroon and Penner they have 5 Cups. There is no defence for a 250 pounder barrelling right at you. Both these players had hands, skill and size they opened up so much room for their linemates.
LT, what are the Oilers missing to be a Stanley Cup winner?
Personally Id like to see an upgrade at 2RD that pushes Murphy down to 3RD.
Of course, another goal scorer would not go amiss either.
They need another player who can push the river. McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard are able to, but beyond that they have role players and players of quality who are aging out.
— yeah this is where I land too
— they aren’t “fully formed” as I alluded to.
— This the first time they can use the cap to buy a stud with that space in the McDrai era.
Bill Ranford and Raffi Torres.
Florida won the cup with Lundell as 3c.
He had 13 goals 22 assists in the first cup year regular season and in my mind was a very good 3c.
Samanski is slightly bigger. Slightly faster. Defensively responsible. With good wingers have a comparable year? I don’t think it’s much of a stretch.
Samanski needs to show some offense. Im not sure he has the bat for even 4th line duty. We will see.
Samanski cheated for defence during his initial stretch in the NHL – he has more offence to give. He showed in in Bako where he led the team in 5 on 5 scoring at the time of call up, not Quinn Hutson. He showed it at the Olympics, he showed it in the playoffs and he showed it at the Worlds.
I don’t know about coming near those Lundell number but Samanski has an offensive game that will likely translate at the NHL level to some degree.
The big German needs to be more assertive in tight quarters nothing that a full year playing in all situations in the AHL won’t cure. A full year of marination is needed. Stan signs Glendering or some other old fossil that Babcock trusts as 4-C
Wait, so Samanski, who was more effective in the NHL in his minutes lsat year than Howard, needs a full season in the AHL to learn to be more assertive but last year, Howard going the AHL as a 21 rookie pro was egregious and turning him it to a 4th line mucker?
You can’t honestly believe your own opinions on both of these, can you?
Samanski is at the NHL-development level – we already saw it last year and I don’t think he will develop materially with more AHL time and certainly think development in assertiveness can be done, and should be done, at the NHL level.
Wingers and centres are in a different ballpark when it comes to development especially big centres who take longer to make the NHL.You have to listen to the chatter why is an old fossil like Glendening being floated around? Well it’s because Babcock trusts him and he doesn’t want another rookie on the squad in Samanski. As for Howard it’s been radio silence so there’s another clue he starts the year in the AHL. Jones-Joseph-Dach are all locks to make it. Babcock wants wins early he knows the chatter will get worse with every loss. If we start 2-9-1 the faithful will publicly flog Babcock on Kingsway Avenue.
Sure, sometimes centers take longer sometimes – of course, Samanski already proved to be further along in his development last year than Howard – could be due to the multiple years of pro he played in Germany and being older.
We saw with our eyes Howard needing development time last year – they he got it. you are on a massive island thinking they did Howard a disservice.
There has been nothing on Glendenning – nothing except blog sites suggesting that they could use him. Its been as quiet from the org on Glendenning as it has on any other player out there.
Radio silence on Howard? It’s reffing August. What are you expecting. The only times that Bowman has spoken in the off-season he’s sung Howard’s praises and says he’ll be a big part of the team. Other than that, Howard, not Glendeinng, has been seen at the McDavid/Kyle cottage.
He went from Nowhere to the NHL in one year.
He might find some offence with a bit of confidence and familiarity.
I’d give him the chance to show and maybe grow.
Babcock doesn’t want him he prefers Glendering who will sign for cheap.
”Is this a Stanley cup winner? I think it’s shy” LT
What more is needed?
Maybe a 3C right shot?
Maybe a high end winger?
Does Savoie or Howard or Podz check this box if they exceed expectations? Like if they each get 20 + goals 30 ish assists. Or if one pops for 30g 40a.
I think this team is a winner. The biggest catalyst is the coach and line matching that will help the oilers get over the finsh line.
Oilers need another player the opponents needs to game plan against.
Which teams have more than 3 players that the opposition needs to game plan against?
I thought Draisaitl was a certain winger? Now I’m confused. I agree on the shy for cup aspirations. Bring in Ryan O’Reilly and get it done.
Babcock may start with 97-29, but it would be impossible to sustain. The Oilers don’t have the center depth beyond their incredbile 1-2 combo.
I don’t think they’ll play them together much on the road but I wouldn’t be surprised if opening face-off at home on Sept 29, they are both out there.
One might be surprised what a line of Podz/Nuge/Hyman might be able to do. Kane/Nuge/Hyman absolutely killed the Stars in the 2025 WCF.
That’s exactly what I expect Babcock to do, but it’ll fade. Losses are losses, no matter when they occur. Babcock doesn’t like to lose.
I’m anticipating less losses than wins, that’s for sure – likely with varying deployments.
It really is something having you’re favorite cup of morning joe and reading LT daily thoughts, evaluation and history of the league through stories and memories. Thank you for everything you do LT.
Agreed. Nothing better than a good, “What would Sam do?”
There is a chance they keep 8D and only 12F. Bowman alluded to it on July 1 as we saw on the Drop along with the ability to dress 7D if there is an injury or illness that puts them short.
I hope they don’t do that. I prefer Samanski over Stastney if the rest are healthy (although Regula does give me tingles).
I think Regula is the 8D I don’t think he’ll make it though waivers.
He made it throgh waivers last and he’s now further from being “a name” as he went through another year of not establishing himself in the NHL
I think there is some waiver risk, for sure. They may not want to risk it but keeping 8D and only 12F is not my favourite option – that will likely solidify your boy Jones on waivers (unless there are injures).
This is the exact player Babcock likes in the bottom six. If he does what Mike ask of him Jones may hang around for awhile.
I’m not sure Samanski isn’t more the exact type of player Babcock likes in the bottom six as opposed to Jones.
Lets not forget, Jones’ has had a long runway in this league without sticking – due to his inconsistencies, always disappears for long stretches, including 18 totally ineffective games as an Oiler the prior year.
Samanski has never done that at the pro level in North America.
I would add Shakir M to the lock list and I 100% agree with this. No chance they waive Shakir, right?
While I agree very much with the premise of this piece, it’s interesting as you have been pushing back on me for weeks when I opine the exact same.
They could trade him. Cerainly an option
They could trade lots of players.
I think with the cupboards as empty as they are in the draft capital, It’s inevitable that we will see a preseason trade. heading to the deadline with cap space they will need more of said draft capital. A couple of NHL’ers will not make this team and would not get through waivers. I maybe miss reading that but I don’t think so
Im pretty sure they will trade Stastney. No way he gets through waivers IMO
I think his $1.5MM extension was partly waivers protection – they will likely be equatable players on waivers for cheaper, right?
I don’t think its inevitable at all.
They are potentially sending two NHL forwards players through waivers – Janmark/Jones (and maybe neither of them if Janmark is on IR and they chose to keep Jones over Samanski).
Either way, both likely clear and I don’t think you get anything in a trade – MAYBE a team trades a 6th or 7th or C- prospect of Jones but I doubt it.
On defence, with no injuries and if they only keep 7, Stastney and Regula are at risk on waivers. Regula cleared last year and is likely less at risk to a claim this year. I think the $1.5MM on Satsney is waivers protection – he could be traded but, if so, I think its for a depth forward.
Could be wrong.
There is no way the Oilers take a chance on Samanski clearing waivers if he isn’t on the opening night roster ( I believe he makes the team out of camp). He played in the olympics and played good. Not a chance he clears. If not on the roster and lost on waivers would be potentially a worse scenario than Broberg and Holloway
Samanski is waivers exempt – they can send him down to Bako with zero issues.
Yes. Adding fuel to the idea that the roster isn’t set entering training camp.
Of course the roster isn’t set and I’ve never said it is.
I’ve said, subject to injury:
7D are set
3G are set
10F are set
There are 5 forwards vying 2 or 3 roster spots depending on if they cary 12 or 13. I don’t believe any forward beyond the listed 5 have a chance for opening roster (subject multiple injuries).
I also believe that Joseph is all but a lock and Howard likely in behind him.
Now, as far as deployment of the forwards, I have zero certainty on anything
I thought you said with so few preseason games that the roster is set barring injury? I myself thinks Babcock has 90% of the positions penciled in.
My position has been exactly as stated today the entire time – 3G locked, 7D locked, 10F locked – 5 forwards fighting for the last few spots.
The only change is being open to them going with 12F and 8D given what we heard Babock say (back on July 1).
— I’m getting ready for our golf Clubchampinship today and tmrw.
— I’m in the “Jack Nicklaus stunningly wins a Masters at 46”’stage of my golf career
— 4 kids and life does that too you but competition is always fun
— As for the Oil I can’t recall a year in McDrai era where they have had this cap flexibility going onto season.
— Pro rated you can afford any type of game changing stud that becomes available at deadline.
You can thank Darnell Nurse for the cap flexibility. That changed everything.
As far as the final four goes I like Shakir’s chances, Samanski because he’s the only centre, Joseph but I’m afraid I can’t venture a guess on that final player. If Janmark is completely healthy he always seems to be a coaches favorite, Jones could find himself in the same category and of course there’s Howard who certainly could make his presence felt.
I believe Connor McDavid is the person to thank for the Oilers cap flexibility.
I’m certain Nurse deserves some gratitude also.
I guess there’re plenty of thank-you’s to go around.
I would suggest that we can thank Bowman for the cap flexibility. He didn’t bite at the offers out there from Philly/Boston that required retainment and big cap commitments back – yes, good on Nurse for waiving for a 4th team to allow that to happen.
Shakir is a lock – they are not putting him on waivers.
I think Joseph is close to a lock, probably Howard do. Bob continuing to allude to Janmark’s healthy makes me think he’s on IR saving one spot – between Jones and Samanski.
I agree Stan Bowman made several reasonable decisions during free agency that was assisted by Darnell Nurse waiving his no movement clause but I would wager that none of that goes down like it did without Connor McDavid taking a significant discount on his current contract.
They really don’t need to put anyone on waivers since they can move forward with a 23 man roster, thanks to their cap flexibility.
that’s not quite true.
We know the locked 7D which all require waivers – so do Stastney, Regula, Brown. Brown is a non-entity but at least one of the prior two, maybe both, are on waivers.
They could assign a bunch of waiver exempt forward and not waive any but, even discounting the silliness of alluding to waiver Savoie, its likely the coaching staff and management come the conclusion that keeping a waivers exempt forwwd and waiving someone is best for the roster.
They aren’t going to build the team based on waiver exemption as primary.
Fire up your favorite AI and have it write an article in 80s style that says you’re “gone, done” and that “no one that old wins the club championship” and post that sucker on the fridge.
Those of you responding negatively clearly don’t get the reference.
Sad.
But now, a team that can take on a player’s pro-rated salary at the deadline may not be able to fit that players salary onto the playoff roster.
Does the NHL’s LTIR “fix” make it better or worse?
At least it could be a hedge against a better player getting injured. Or for example if Walman gets injured they can be stronger up front. Bowman has said it’s at F they will add
Sit a higher paid player.
I was disappointed the Oilers couldn’t utilize sitting Nurse in the playoffs this way.