In June 1969, Roberta Flack released her debut album, First Take. Among the songs on the album was a haunting ballad called “The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face” and it’s a memorable song to this day. Please read this.
Almost three years later, the song hit the charts and rocketed to number one across most nations. It was not a brilliant record for the radio, as the intro was barely audible and sounded like dead air when played. However, Flack’s rich voice and the subtle, beautiful melody were irresistible. Top song of the year, Grammy awards, international fame for the incredible Flack.
The song would never have been a hit, but was included as a key piece in the movie “Play Misty For Me” starring Clint Eastwood and Jessica Walter, who you may know as Lucille Bluth on Arrested Development. It was a suspense film, one of the better ones truth to tell.
Flack would go on to exceptional success, with songs like Where Is The Love, Feel Like Makin’ Love and Killing Me Softly With His Song. I expect she would have been famous without the movie’s push, but it sure helped.
Mike Babcock arrives in Edmonton this summer to what most believe is a set roster. Babcock will want a veteran bunch, but will also be looking for his player type.
I think Max Jones is a better player at 28 than he was at 22, and Babcock may take a liking to him. I think Josh Samanski and Quinn Hutson have some elements to their game the new coach will find appealing. I think Alec Regula and Devon Levi may play a larger role than people expect at this time. I wrote about all of them here earlier in August.
I do not believe Babcock will be swayed by the talents of Atro Leppänen. I wrote about him here. Babcock’s left side of the defense is strong and plentiful, and the power-play minutes will go to trusted veterans. Leppänen is a talented player, and might catch on with a team in search of a puck mover, but it’s my opinion he has no chance with these Oilers.
You know what? I could be wrong. It’s possible. No matter what happens with the Oilers defense, he can still come to camp and showcase his substantial ability, and things can still work out for him. Leppänen is a unique talent, and he no doubt caught the eye of scouts over the long winter in Bakersfield one year ago. The lesson of Flack’s brilliant song applies here. It took three years after release. As good as the song was, it needed a push. A hockey player, at age 28, can still establish himself in the NHL. It’s possible. The player needs a push. That push could come from Babcock.
I don’t know if it is Max Jones or Josh Samanski or even Atro Leppänen, but the idea that everything is written in stone for the Oilers this fall ignores Babcock’s personality and style. He is going to choose his 23. They are not your 23. Pretty sure.
On the Lowdown today, we will hear from Steve Lansky (Inside the Truck podcast) and talk about the surging Jays, signs of fall and hockey, and a little about the ticking clock on the McDavid era. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
What do the Edmonton Oilers have in AHL defenceman Atro Leppänen?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7526817/2026/08/21/edmonton-oilers-atro-leppanen-stats/
Great walk-off win for the Elks over the Bombers tonight. Good sized crowd on an absolutely perfect night for football in Etown. EE stay alone in 1st place. Killam’s crew gets a bye now before the annual double dip vs the Stamps.
The exhibition games plus the first five RS games should give Babs an idea of what he has beyond one line. Can Podz Dickinson and Kapanen be a shutdown trio? Can Howard ease in to a top line roll if protected by RNH and Hyman on a soft competition line? Which four catch his eye on a 4th line (Samanski, Dach, Frederic, Jones, Joseph or Janmark). Surely McDavid Draisaitl and Savoie can provide enough offense in 18 minutes a night to let them play with a lead.
He might want all four forward lines & three defensive pairs balanced and playing the same way all over the ice. Take no prisoners.
Possession is 9/10 of the law. Big shout out to Rickibear! Ricki have you had a tea with Sutter who knows what it takes to Win?
DFOs five teams that look noticeably weaker heading in to this season include: Avs, Knights, Stars, Ducks
Lines up with what many of us have been saying.
Now that we have Cup worthy talent in net I see a clear path towards the Final against the Panthers for round 3.
Yes. By then clattenburg should be ready to announce his presence.
A middleweight needs to tune in Bennett-Tkachuk brothers-Marchand we will no longer be a punching bag that plays by the rules. Florida won 2 Cups juicing up all that matters is they won.
There could be a Mammoth road block.
Their offseason additions and graduating prospects are rather impressive.
Minny-Dallas-Colorado is a brutal division to go through.
Utah finished with 92 points last season even with Logan Cooley missing almost half the season with injury.
He managed to score 24 goals and 43 points in only 54 games.
With the acquisition of Anders Lee, Vincent Trochek and Sebastian Cossa as well as the possibility of Tij Iginla, Caleb Desnoyer and Daniil But (all high 1st round picks) joining the team , they could challenge for the Central Division crown.
I’ll take Billy Guérin Minny is one or two players away from being the new cock on the block.
Apparently Dylan Larkin wants to go there which would be perfect but the Wild don’t seem to have the assets to pull it off.
Very interested to see how Babcock sets his lines, does he load up or does he spread the glimmer?
Samanski is going to have a current day Oilers legend and countryman in his corner, I think that adds sway.
How does DJ set up the pairings? Does he keep Ekholm up top or has Bouchard graduated to carrying his own pairing?
Imo how the defense lines up is more interesting to me at the moment.
Shea/Bouchard
Walman/Murphy
Ekholm/many suitors, as long as Ekholm hasn’t met the cliff this summer Oilers could be rolling out 2 2nd pairings under the Bouchard top.
Does Emberson continue to build? If so he’ll be tough to beat out.
looks good to me. I think ideally they give ekholm and Murphy some games off just to stay fresh. Emberson is a legit everyday third pair dman with a bit of room to the upside.
Yes give certain players a rest through the season. Now that we have cap room we can do some load management. Bowman in Chicago lived calling up fresh big skilled wingers for the bottom six. Rotate some D through the season we finally have done Depth.
I think we can expect lots of McDavid and Drai together at home and little on the road (although it won’t be that black and white.
I hope Samanki is on the opening 23 as we’ll – could see that go either way if they are healthy.
I think Ekholm likely needs Bouchard more than the other way around these days.
Stauff suggests, after about 20 games, we may see:
Shea/Bouchard
Ekholm/Murphy
Shea/Emberson (Muk).
I hope they pick the best players to construct a very good 4 lines and 3 pairs. If Connor or Leon have to go down with to the A so be it!
It would be nice to have them as options for call up when injuries hit….
If Oilers can find a player who is as dogged on the puck as you are about predicting this roster, that’s a keeper!
Jones will be on the ice for the Opener and it wouldn’t surprise me if he scores.
it will be interesting if Babcock and Bowman keep Jones or Samanski for that last forward spot (presuming Janmark on IR).
If they end up going with 8D and only 12F, they both may be on a plane to California.
If Samanski not being ready has filtered down to peons like us then all I’ll go all in barring injury Jones wins the job. While I’m at it if a healthy Janmark wins a job as well. Babcock coming in with a chip on his shoulder he doesn’t have time for a bunch of snot nosed rookies. The marination crowd has won out again expect Glendening or another old fart on the roster game 1.There will be one or two top 6ers going down during training camp expect Howard to be on the block.
The Samanski not being ready narrative came from Stauff asking Colton Dach about playing center – then it snowballed.
We saw him ready, more than ready.
Babcock has never had an issue with rookies.
I dunno but Samanski seems like he knows how to use a Kleenex and, of note he played more NHL games than Jones last season and played (and was effective) in playoff games – Jones did not dress in the playoffs. Not to mention Samanski played in the Olympics and World Championships.
Recent experience would lean towards Samasnki over Jones.
I don’t know who you hate Howard so much and want to trade him – Babcock will love what he showed in Bako.
Any word on Bouchard after that hit at the Worlds? Other than Bowman saying he was “okay” and it could have been worse in May?
No word but there has been no indication that he’s anything but fine – he was pictured golfing within 2-3 weeks of the incident, he’s been seen at parties at the McDavid/Kyle cottage in Ontario, etc., etc
Shea is the key if he has a season like he did last year then Bob’s our Uncle.
I fully expect Shea to be a very solid part of the d-group – lots of PK time and he’ll likely play up and down that left side.
He sure has low milage. His signing is either going to be steal of a deal or a lemon.
The competition will be fierce for the 6 & 7th defencemen. May even make them seriously considering going with 8. I can certainly see Stastney on the move, there’s even talk of moving on from Leppanen in search for more centre depth. Which might mean versatility will be a thing making the forward group this season in Edmonton.
Competition fierce for who is gets 6D on any given night and who sits (as between Emberson and Shakir) or who will be on the team?
I do not agree on the latter, as far as the top 7 – those are locked, 100%. Do you disagree that there is no chance they waive Emberson or Shakir M?
There could be a battle between Regula and Sastney for 8D if they decide to go with only 12F.
There is a chance Stasney (not Lep) is moved for a depth forward, agreed, but that does not effect the locked in top 7D (prior to injury).
I have never ever mentioned anything about waiving Emberson or Shakir. Where do you get this stuff from? It makes no sense. Regula could certainly push Stastney for 8th D. This is why Stastney might be trade bait and I heard today Leppanen could be in the same boat . Which I thought was interesting and makes perfect sense as they want to improve their center depth.
I simply asked for clarification on your thoughts on the fierce competition for the 6th and 7th d-men
Colton older brother will be coming home at the trade deadline. Then he’s signing for 3 years Dach-Dach-Frederic (Jones-Clattenburg) The Dach brothers vs the Tkachuk brothers in the Final.
Watched the July 1 episode of The Drop last night. Highly recommended, I love this stuff. Some thoughts:
-they seem very collaborative. Bowman seems more like a mediator than anything – listening to everyone’s opinions from Parkatti/Zrim/Mahe to the older management Gretzky/Scott/Rychel and building concensus
-Bill Scott seems to do a lot of the negotiations with agents
-Jeff Jackson very involved
-they seem to run everything by Parkatti. He suggested countering Andersen’s agents ask for bonus structure
-they were all really pumped to get Shea
-Bowman talked to Babcock about Freddi and running three goalies and Babcock’s thought it was a good idea
thats all I can remember but I am impressed – seems like they have good representation from analytics/tech people and experienced people and seem like they have a good culture
IMHO, it gave the impression that they were flying by the seat of their pants. You mileage may very.
I know editing can distort things, but this is an Oilers production.
They kind of had to fly by the seat of their pants when they didn’t know what was happening with Nurse. But once they found out he was gone they had a plan and implemented it quickly. I was happy to see Parkatti at the grown ups table with seemingly as much influence as Gretzky, Rychel etc.
Who doesn’t run by “seat of their pants” in a process as dynamic as NHL free agency?
Being “adaptive” is reality.
Who doesn’t do it this way? Well-informed strategic advisors who’ve played out scenarios ahead of time and have multiple plans and perspectives to know ahead of time what to do, what it will impact and how to pivot. The repetition of “ahead of time” is intentional.
Also every successful billion+ enterprise, strong decision-making organizations (public or private) and, frankly, any highly effective coming together of individuals with the same interest.
Being adaptive does not come from flinging stuff at the wall or being hit by the latest thing flying in the wind…it comes from perspective, principles, research, forward planning and so much more. The people who think well on their feet do it well because they’re ready to. And because they avoid it being necessary most of the time.
As a person in their position, you should be ready for possibilities. Not “oh hey, I guess we like having 3 goalies now”.
They had played out scenarios. They immediately signed Shea and Kapanen once they knew Nurse had waived.
They wanted better goalie depth so they got a promising young one for a mid round pick and an old one that just won a cup for cheap. What is the issue with this process?
they aren’t going to have board meetings run like Morgan Stanley and they shouldn’t. These are hockey people used to being in rinks.
Nothing to do with Morgan Stanley. If the local minor hockey board or golf club tournament committee is any good, it operates the way I’m describing as well.
Also – this is in fact a multi-billion dollar company – not just a hockey team with hockey guys. It should be managed as such and must be in order to have success.
Further – strong baseball teams don’t operate this way. Nor do strong football teams or NBA teams. Why would the Oilers?
The only positive possibility I see is that perhaps they dumbed down the commentary in the edit – to protect their confidential discussion and to go at a different audience. But I don’t happen to think they have that much thought behind these things.
I’m confused. Is this Morgan Stanley guy a right shot 3c?
Giant too. At least 7’3”.
Yeah this clip did not inspire confidence hahah. Also, everyone seemed so low energy.
There is a whole hour long episode on it, not just the 7 minute clip
Oh nice. I will check out the whole episode.
They were editing for their benefit. They think this is impressive.
That room didn’t operate or speak at a high level at all.
The first question to ask in something like this is “Why are they doing it? What do they want”
The answer? Money. They want fans to pay $60-$100 a month for access to things like this. What makes a fan pay money for this? Something interesting. It’s why we have tons of lawyer shows, cop shows, firefighter shows and no accountant shows. “Let’s all watch Mike make a spreadsheet” is not a winning concept for a show. “Darryl does everyone’s job for them” is also not a winner.
What did you see? Something that will make you keep paying. They edited to keep it interesting. Are you not entertained?
Yes there is no shortage of fast talking lawyer shows and movies.
One of the things I have learned over the years is that anything put out by the team has intentional and unintentional messages. Sometimes they are true, sometimes manipulations of the truth, sometimes straight up false and often omit important parts of the story.
In addition, my own bias causes me to see things in a different way than someone else might. Sometimes catching the truth while sometimes believing or inventing a lie.
There’s a saying in the military: “plans don’t work but planning does” which was popularized by Dwight Eisenhower. Which is to day, D-Day was extensively planned AND they were flying by the seat of their pants.
The Oilers were some combination of prepared and scrambling with some in the room more prepared and some more scrambled. They presented what they wanted you to see BUT you won’t see it they way they see it.
Rinse, repeat, on to the next.
Never have the Oilers demonstrated in the free stuff they release that they are an analytics driven organization. That youtube drop was the antithesis of an analytics driven organization.
Identifying Parkatti in the video while the same old behaviors are highlighted does not demonstrate being analytics driven.
Why is Bowman asking Jackson how many games Freddie has played, and with Jackson looking it up on the computer? Was not an analytics datasheet on Andersen prepared for the group if Andersen was being pursued?
Salary proposals were discussed without reference to a salary plan. We haven’t made an offer yet. We haven’t even a definite plan for what we might offer. Scott wanders off to another room to come up with numbers for an offer for Andersen. Was Andersen not on their rader before that they would not have to be making up numbers on free agent day?
The three goalie plan had not been discussed at all before. Bowman had to go run off and consult with Babcock whether this was a good idea.
One would think that they would have a plan going into the day. All plans fail, but planning works. There was no sign of planning.
Agreed, obviously this was heavily edited, but there was no sign of data based decisions other than how many games has a goalie played lately which these guys should have an idea before asking the question.
Salary numbers were thrown around very loosely by feeling. No benchmarking, no value for cap discussed.
These sort of decisions should be based on a multitude of data sets summarized to a few meaningful projected kpis based on how they are planning to play.
I.e. What is Andersons expected GA rate and slot rebound rates on > 30 ft E W puck movement vs teams that employ a top forward read diamond PK like we plan on playing.
Bunch of subjective based decision making
So, the presumption is that this work wasn’t done in the weeks leading up – they have a team of 6 or 7 reporting directly to Michael Parkatti that the owner is paying and they prepared for weeks leading up and I’m quite certain these multitudes of data set were run and analyzed in preparation for July 1. Monday morning seems a bit fluid, you know 31 other teams also in the limited market – things are fluid, there is not time to be running additional data on the morning of – that work had been done.
Yet somehow the off-season looks to have been a nice success, the general consensus both inside and outside the market (of course, not unanimous).
I’m going to guess the owner of the team doesn’t have Parvati and 6 reporting to him on a payroll for shits and giggles. I’m quite certain no-one has any idea the work they did on the player’s discussed prior to the July 1 footage. I doubt the week long in-person meetings were reading the guide an record book.
I’m quite certain that July 1 player procurement is quite a fluid situation where “plans’ have to get tweaked in real time. Even if $9.5MM factor wasn’t up in the air until the morning of.
Yes we are always left to our presumptions as fans.
I maintain that 7 min shows no indication of data based decision making. The fact they jumped from 1M bonuses to 500k indicates no math based determination of value.
These guys have access to data the regular fan does not. They are supposed to be more informed than the average fan. There was no indication they were making decisions on information the average fan has no access to. I was expecting more depth than what the members of this excellent forum could easily suss out.
I disagree that there is much up for debate except for the forwards. Babcock will choose his team along with Bowman but Bowman is not going to waive Emerson or Shakir no matter what Babcock wants.
Injuries can change things and they might keep 8D and 12F but that is tough with 15 legit forward options before we even get to the Hutson tier and before any silly Glendenning type signing could be made.
I don’t think Babcock will be using camp to get to know the tendencies of Hutson and Regula and Michaels, I think he’ll have his roster in mind (of course, a couple open spots and battles) and he’ll want to get his pairs and combos set in conjunction with making major system and structural changes to how they play – and that’s in all zones and all game states (but for maybe PP1).
He’ll want to see Jones vs Samanski vs. Janmark (if healthy) and he’ll want to see how Howard works and if he can be used on a 3rd line (with Nuge) or if he gels with a top center. I don’t think he’ll be looking too much at Josh Brown’s fake deference or Micahel’s right shot faceoffs.
With regards to “maybe PP1”
Mid to late last year by eye test the oilers struggled getting in zone with the -flying Mcdavid to -blue line Nuge -back to Bouch zone entry. At times Mcdavid tried to do it all himself seemingly frustrated by zone entry failure.
No doubt Nuge missing time was a factor and yes the oilers pp was still the best in the league.
Just my opinion but I believe we will see a different strategy on pp zone entries most other teams have shifted away from the oiler type entry.
Similar to what happened to the old oilers pk that was top of the league for a few years. Now that pk strategy is rarely used. Other teams figured it out. The oilers were slow to adjust. A factor in costing them a cup.
I don’t think they had an issues entering the zone on the PP prior to Nuge and Drai injuries – at the time Drai got hurt, the PP was 33%, literally the best of all time.
I think Mike is going to have OP on speeddial.
Mike is going to tell the players what to do, and if one player does it the way Mike wants it done, and another players does not, that will be decisive. I do not think Mike cares about a player’s tendencies or a player’s past. I think Mike cares about the player doing exactly what Mike tells them to do.
We do not really have any idea which players are going to be able to do this. There is no time in camp. So you do what Mike says, and that is how the roster will be filled out.
We know which players will be available to Mike, for the most part.
Bowman is not going waive Ty Emberson because Josh Brown listens to Mike better
Good thing Mike has you on speed dial.
I think Carfagna is ahead of Leppanen as far as prospects pushing up ahead of the Regular/Stastney then Stilman/Brown clusters.
I like Leppanen, he developed more than any other dman I can remember in such a short period – part of that is how awful he was for the first month – zero defensive structure, soft on stick, zero risk mitigation – awful. He came a long ways and should be in the conversation but Carfagna is left and passed him in the side of the road.
I like Regula and think he can play in the NHL right now. He was very very good for the Condors. I think Bowman values Regula as well.
Injury could get him in the roster, I can see him making it over Stastney if one injury does hit. Without injury, there just isn’t a place on the opening roster unless they keep 8D. Can anyone imagine Emerson or Shakir M on waivers?
With that said, the Drop piece that came out yesterday does have Bowman mention 12 forwards on the roster due to 3 goalies and dressing a 7th dman if they get injuries.
Always the possibility of a minor swap or two as training camp winds down.
For sure, Stastney may be traded out but that doesn’t change the 7 locked d-men on the roster.
I’d be excited to see a third pair of regula/Muk but unlikely to happen. I see a lot of positives in regula and hope he gets his chance to be an nhl regular. Maybe that’s 20 games in with the oilers as a call up when a few injuries happen.
I think Regula probably clears – I mean, he did last year, mid-season, and he’s a year older and still non-established now (i.e. should be “less of a name” for teams to want to claim).
He was doing fine until he ran into a freight train named Kane.
Loved Jessica Walter, LT. A very talented lady. Her ‘Mallory Archer’ was one of the funniest most cynical characters in television history. Right up there with Basil Fawlty and Larry David.
https://youtu.be/gYMBf_0HqS4?si=zhJSD7SC0_-mYva6
My wife and I fully embraced Mallory’s catchphrase, “What kind of fresh hell is this?” and every time we use it, it never fails to make a frustrating situation better.
Ms. Walter played a great pyschotic.
It was her forte.
Donna Mills was actually more memorable from the movie.
Two weeks ago Colin Chaulk told the public that Quinn Hutson does not work as hard and battle as much in the defensive zone as he does the offensive zone. To me, that does not sound like a Babcock player.
I agree that Josh Samanski has shown a level of play that Babcock should like.
With five legit NHL options (Jones, Janmark, Joseph, Samanski, Howard) for 3 forward roster spots, subject to multiple IR injuries (3), it’s tough to imagine Hutson on the opening roster. He likely does play games though.
Not working as hard and battle as much in the defensive zone as they do in the offensive zone sounds like many, if not all, Oiler forwards. Podkolzin being the exception. This will need to change in the up coming season under Babcock. Picking from those five legit NHL options for three forward roster spots shouldn’t be difficult.
Well, Quinn Hutson had that issue in the AHL, Issac Howard did not.
Babcock will have seen tape on that and talked to Chaulk, I’m sure
I’d guess Howard will be a favourite of Babs. The way he played especially in the WC was impressive. All over the puck including in tough areas (net front , below the goal line) him and Podz on the same line would be a handful for the opposition. I look fired to seeing that
combination with drai at some point.I will be curious to see if either of those players are in the roster conversation.
Howard or Hutson?
No doubt Howard is “in the conversation” – likely not a lock but more likely to make it than not. Hutson will be looking to stick around as long as possible and leave a positive impression on the new coach so he’s top of mind at injury time.
I mentioned this a while back, but Babcock strikes me as the type who will try something different from what’s expected just to be smug about it. I mean this as a compliment more than a criticism.
I think that’s exactly right. I also think Babcock would make an unusual roster tweak to keep the veterans on their toes. Slats used to talk about that quite often.
So Fredrick on the first line with Mc drai? Hehe.
Pat Quinn did exactly that in 2009
‘keeping the veterans on their toes’ is a nice way to sanitize Babcock creating toxic work environments- I’m sure Marner, Modano, Chelios, Franzen, Speeza were happy to be kept on their toes
There’s no doubt Babcock will use ice time as a hmmer. I’m not sure you can call that toxic.
I’m not talking about ice time, but I guess Babcock has a wide range of possible outcomes. We hope for the best, and that McDavid and Draisatl can keep his worst tendencies in line, but there’s a lot of history to suggest he is what he is.
Agreed. The range of this season goes from Babcock fired before Christmas to winning the Stanley Cup imo.
Ice-time a player receives especially on PP and when teams pull there goalie is at premium. A 22 goal scorer is compensated vastly different than a 13 goal scorer even it’s the same player who put up these numbers the previous or following year. What I’m trying to say is a coach can make or break you with ice-time.
What it is, is a motivational tool more than anything.