Into The Blue Again (after the money’s gone)

by Lowetide

The list remains the same, but not for much longer. Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland needs a scoring left-winger with a defensive conscience for the McDavid line, a No. 3 center, a RH defenseman and one, maybe two goalies. If his RH defenseman is a skill blue, he’ll need a shutdown type and that would mean another defenseman. Ladies and gentleman, it’s go time.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER

This sees James Neal bought out, Oscar Klefbom on LTIR, Adam Larsson at Pike’s Place Market, Mikko Koskinen is off to Nashville for Borocop (who is in Bakersfield), Zack Kassian ($500,000 retained) is playing in Manhattan and Julien Gauthier canNOT believe how much less expensive it is to live in Edmonton. Hyman is acquired for a 2021 sixth-round pick and signed from here to eternity.

I have McIlrath as 7D but suspect Philip Broberg or Dmitri Samorukov will be making their NHL debuts early in the year. Kris Russell is going to play more than you think. There is $2 million in cap room so the Oilers would have to send McIlrath, McLeod and Bouchard down on paper to make it happen. Frank Seravalli, who will be a guest on the Lowdown this morning, has some interesting thoughts at Daily Faceoff.

ZACH HYMAN

The numbers I pay attention to (and have for years) suggest Zach Hyman is a solid target for the Oilers. The two concerns are AAV and term. I think Oilers fans will be able to live with the AAV (a little over $5 million) and it sounds like an eight-year deal so that’s going to mean a buyout down the line.

Holland is gathering as much talent as he can, and is willing to give term in exchange for lower cap. In the example above, the Oilers sign all of Hyman, Barrie, Ullmark, Granlund and (previously) Nugent-Hopkins with this in mind. I don’t think we’ll see four additions to the roster, but three is possible. I don’t believe Holland will have enough for the “Granlund” in my example.

  • Hyman vs elites five on five: 300 minutes, 46.7 percent of his overall time. 53.8 DFF%, 5.68 DFFRel, 17-6 goals.
  • Hyman five on five pts 60: 2.14
  • Hyman five on five pts 60 without Matthews: 2.01
  • Hyman five on five Corsi pct: 52.6
  • Hyman five on five shot differential: 54.0
  • Hyman five on five goal differential: 66.7
  • Hyman five on five expected goals: 60.0

MILAN LUCIC 2015-16

  • Lucic vs elites five on five: 467 minutes, 39.6 percent of his overall time. 55.1 DFF%, 7.11 DFFRel, 31-12 goals.
  • Lucic five on five pts 60: 2.09
  • Lucic five on five Corsi pct: 59.4
  • Lucic five on five shot differential: 57.4
  • Lucic five on five goal differential: 61.4
  • Lucic five on five expected goals: 57.8

Two great and similar seasons from each man and we should be aware that both men represented here were at the edge of 30 and that’s when there’s a major dive in performance. Ken Holland isn’t as fearful of age as, well, anyone in an NHL general manager’s chair, and the buy looks great in both cases.

Let’s be clear: These investments always involve long-term deals and regret somewhere during the course of the deal. That came painfully early in Edmonton for Lucic and we don’t know Hyman’s future.

On the day Edmonton signed Lucic, I wrote “the Taylor Hall Oilers are gone. They are gone. That is a fact. Pray baby Jesus the new boy King gets more support than the last boy hero. I think that is what this week is about, and the man charged with the heavy work had an idea about this roster many of us did not share.”

However, it’s easy to buy in to these things, and I did with Lucic, a player I had followed for the entirety of his NHL career. Same day, I wrote “Milan Lucic is a perfect fit for the Oilers fan, I hope you give him a chance this winter. He is not Taylor Hall, he is Milan Lucic—and just as Whitey Herzog and Earl Weaver won with jackrabbits or a bloop and a blast, so too can the Edmonton Oilers win with a power lineup that is complemented with speed and skill.”

This will be a big day. Make sure you prepare for good and bad. Enjoy the good, anticipate the bad as best you can. Time waits for no one.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we have a busy show on TSN1260. Connor Halley from TSN1260 will join us to talk about Elks training camp, injuries, cuts and how things are progressing. At 11, Frank Seravalli from Daily Faceoff pops in and gives us an update on what’s happening with the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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YYCOil

Any word on if the Penticton tournament is going forward this year?

Harpers Hair

Cancelled.

YYCOil

I will not give you a -1, but I will give you a boo 🙂

Ben

Stealth 3C move: pick up Tyler Johnson, along with a pick and a little retained from Tampa. (Although there’s a decent chance Edmonton is on his no-trade list).

TheGreatBigMac

Tampa needs to move out at least two more $5M contracts after loosing Gourde just to be under the cap with a bunch of $1M plugs. Retaining likely means they need to move a 4th contract. Doubt they entertain that.

DBO

been on this train for weeks. Get Johnson. Tampa may keep back a mill or two and take Turris to bury him.

jimdewger

One idea that seems important to consider when thinking about the cap going up is the way that increases by the same amount get proportionally smaller over time. If the cap goes up by 5 million 2 years from now that is certainly helpful for fitting in more players under the cap, but is much less significant than a cap raise of 5 million was when the cap was 40 mill. Contracts may look a little less daunting number wise in 5 years, but if the cap were to jump from 81 to 90 million by 2025, that is only a 10% increase- compared to the 10% increase that happened when the salary cap jumped from 39 to 43 million.

Rondo

Ristolainen is an overrated D-man. I do remember he’s not a very Good d-man according to players in the east.

jeetz

I am secretly hoping for a big trade with Buffalo.

rights to Rienhart and Ullmark plus Ristolainen

for Koskinen plus some significant futures. Honestly, if we got Rienhart, I would be OK trading Yamo.

thing to remember Ristokainen has 1 year left on his contract and has poor underlying numbers but is minimal risk because the Oilers could start him at #3 RD, and as he gets his confidence back move him up the depth chart. He is a 210lbs 6’4”, 8th overall draft pick, 26 years old with really shitty numbers on a shitty team. Perfect buy low player. He is a player D Kieth could help rehabilitate to star status.

if he doesn’t work out we can let him walk

Last edited 13 days ago by jeetz
OriginalPouzar

Reinart himself would take the 1st plus Yamamoto plus another piece, likely.

That’s without factoring in the negative value of Koskinen or the other two players being acquired.

That’s also apx $16M of cap being acquired after the two free agents sign for apx $10M.

Bling

Ristolainen isn’t that young any more and I wonder if, even on a good team, he is capable of being a good defender.

Keith – Ristolainen sounds like it could be a real adventure. Who babysits them?

I would pass on this player.

ArmchairGM

Ristolainen for Neal would be something I’d consider, but honestly I’m not sure where you could play him. He’s a tire-fire defensively so that precludes pairing him with Keith, and I don’t want to push Bouchard either up the lineup or out of the lineup, so you can’t play Risto on the 3rd pairing either. That leaves… 1st pairing with Nurse, so you’re going to get the same terrible results he’s posted basically every year of his career.

The Oilers might be better off just buying out Neal and picking up a 2RD with the savings.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Reading the new court filings regarding John Doe and the Chicago Blackhawks. What an absolutely awful story. WTAF. More evidence of the culture of bullying and bigotry that is pervasive in the NHL.

Imagine trusting your teammates and telling them about a traumatizing sexual assault. Instead of supporting you, they use it as fodder for homophobic trash talk during scrimmages. Awful.

Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/news/new-details-emerge-in-sexual-assault-allegations-against-former-blackhawks-coach/Lk2BMD3o2TZZ

Jethro Tull

Yeah, but they know what it takes to win, right?

Reja

They won 3 cups in the salary cap era playing exciting hockey.

Jethro Tull

You might want to rethink your statement with regards to the context of Uncle Steve’s post.

They won three cups under the leadership of Toews (Captain Serious) and a certain Duncan Keith, who we brought in for his character. All the while some truly despicable behavior was happening and apparently everyone not only knew about it, but lied to the media about it.

And let’s not forget Mr. Kane’s shenanigans.

DBO

Hyman is an improvement on any other LW they used but Nuge
Nuge should be better after the contract year stress
McLeod should be improved
Benson increases our skill in bottom 6
Keith is an improvement at 2LD (he is better then Jones, Russell right now)

We need an improvement at 1/2 G and now a solid 1/2 RD and maybe a better 3LD. If Holland achieves that then he has improved the roster and our chance to win this year and next. A deep run increases the likelihood of both big dogs staying. No different then Toronto and Matthews.

OriginalPouzar

A 7-8 year Hyman deal comes with massive risk in the future but there is no doubt he makes the current team MUCH better right now as long as he can stay healthy.

Sure, the preference is a signing that is just golden in all areas for the team but that just isn’t going to happen at the top at of the free agent market and the entire fan base has been screaming for big additions this summer.

This is a “win now” type transaction. The “go all in” like so many are demanding.

Bling

I am now on board with Hyman under the 8 year contract scenario (5 million cap hit).

From NST, Hyman ranks 84 in EV points and goal / 60 over the last three seasons. He is a legit first line talent. His point production away from Matthews and Marner doesn’t drop off that much, so he isn’t strictly a complementary player, either.

I did not realize before that Hyman can play both wings. That opens up all kinds of flexibility with respect to opening up spots for the younger wingers coming up. If and when Holloway is ready, Hyman swings over to the right side, bumping Yamamoto down to the third line. In a unicorns scenario, you can also shift Nuge to C.

Both guys can be effective third liners when they decline. As much as we fear older player decline, the truth is that there are guys who maintain their production into their 30s (Oshie, Perron, Bergeron, Marchand, etc). Dom’s model over at the Athletic has a very favourable view of what Hyman will provide over the first five years of the contract.

There is risk to this type of deal, but right now may be the best time to go long with contracts, as the cap will go up and the contention window is opening now.

OriginalPouzar

I am somewhat on board as well.

I’ve expressed concern over the potential blocking of Holloway/Lavoie on the left side if another top 6 LW is signed for term but, yes, he can play the right side (as can Lavoie) and, shit, maybe Holloway is the 3C going forward.

His recent double knee injuries is my most pressing concern.

With respect to legit top line player – this, again, is where I stop short of believing in per 60 rates as gospel. We have a 29 year old with a career high of 41 points, material time with two of the best player’s in the game and PP time.

JJ Kahira was apx 1.7 P/60 this past season – I don’t consider him a borderline top 6 producer.

Bling

Last 3 seasons, Hyman averages 50 seconds of PP time per game, which ranks 10th amongst Leaf forwards (some ex Leafs scattered in there).

Last season, Hyman was 7th amongst forwards, almost a minute less per game than number 4, Nylander.

I do think he can be a power play option, but I don’t think it’s central to his game.

Hyman’s scoring is understated by how much time he has missed. He has been running at a near 30 goal / 82 pace over the past three seasons. That’ll play on almost any first line.

I believe in season to season variance at EV/60, but when you combine seasons it’s a pretty robust tool. Hyman is bumping up against some pretty good players.

Injuries are a concern for anyone, but my limited viewing of him is he can skate. We all fear a Lucic outcome, but a big difference between the two is skating ability. Hyman also PKs, is effective winning pucks, and has a positive penalty drawn differential.

If Holloway does pass him, Hyman can play anywhere and improve that line.

OriginalPouzar

Fair enough on the PP time but P/82 is similar to P/60 in premise – the rates look great but, at the end of the day, he’s still maxed out at 41 points once and he’s turning 30. His “rates” are good but for some reason, at the end of the season, the production isn’t “legit 1st line”.

Yes, injuries are a main reason but, at the same time, injuries are a main reason and remain a concern – are his knees 100%? Are they more likely to have issues going forward? Given his style, its not likely he’s going to become “healthier” in to his 30s.

JimmyV1965

Teams do not win championships by consistently making boneheaded decisions. Eventually it catches up with them. We will almost certainly be better next year. McDavid, Drai and Nurse will be in full beast mode. JP, Yama and Bear will likely take a step forward and the bottom six will get an injection of talent with Benson, McLeod and possibly Holloway. And despite the ridiculous acquisition costs, Keith and Hyman will likely improve the team short term. But a good GM could have made this team a legit contender. What we will get is a good team that will likely never be a legit contender. Maybe we get lucky and JP and Holloway perform way beyond realistic expectations and the team does become a contender, but that happens despite the miserable performance of the GM, not because of it. 

Tye

Anybody see Stevie Y just FLEECED Carolina while acquiring Alex Nedeljkovic, a 25 year old goalie who just put up a .932 in 23 games with the Canes (& was a Calder finalist) 15-5-3 record.

He sent them a freakin 3rd & Bernier! LMFAO… (how do we end up losing literally every deal, while other GM’s pull off magic like this???)

leadfarmer

Although anyone could have had him for free 7 months ago

Tye

Yes, and more than one person posited that the Oilers should’ve in fact claimed him. . .

leadfarmer

Actually just me

Kraz

If you have a subscription to the athletic there is an article there that actually explains Carolinas thought process and agree or disagree it makes some sense.

https://theathletic.com/2723264/2021/07/22/we-arent-trying-to-save-money-why-the-hurricanes-traded-alex-nedeljkovic-and-what-their-new-plan-is-in-net/?source=user_shared_article

Bill

Hypothetical scenario:

Oilers have a balanced lineup, good shape with the cap and guaranteed to win 2 Cups in 3 years but it costs McDavid.

You are the GM, would you do it?
And as I stated, completely hypothetical situation.

OriginalPouzar

Of course, 100%.

Cups are the goal. I’d prefer to win with McDavid but the key is the winning.

Bill

Same here.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

I was saying this at the tail end of the Chiarelli era and almost got tarred and feathered.

Scungilli Slushy

The real kicker in a long deal is movement clauses.

I realize that often it’s the clincher. I don’t mind they gave one to Nuge because he’s earned that, with suffering blood sweat and tears.

However, new players haven’t. I can see on a eight year contract giving say four years. After that the team should be able to reasonably say to the players the only reason you move is in your end. Your play.

Also the Connor carrot. It’s a career making decision to have a chance to play with him if the player cares about his legacy and rep. From ‘was a good player for a while’ to was one of the best of the era.

godot10

The comparable for Zach Hyman than one hopes for is Patrick Hornqvist.

JOFA

Dare to dream.

RonnieB

Or Chris Kunitz.

judgedrude

Button threw out a Jere Lehtinen comparison, which seems to be on the good side of expectations with anticipated drop off later on.

Diablo

Patrick Sharp

Bling

Lots of good players don’t decline so much in their early 30s. I’m not fearful of this deal. If Holland can get that cap hit to 5 million, you have to do it.

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of “not declining” in to their early 30’s, what the hell Joe Pavelski???

rickithebear

Just thought of this Proprietary White Paper:
Fenwick being the worst dman capture measures year to year (even Corsi) suggests:
(White Paper) Giving up Homeplate area (increased shot density by distance) is a greater affect than the block per Corsi affect.

Meaning we Can create an expected def dman performance by combining:
Elite 0% Corsi dman affect of any dman thru x,y location of release point of Blocks, misses & Closed shots.
Elite Perimeter dman affect of any dman thru open shot release points.

Now that no longer bothers me!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Where can people find your white papers, Ricki?

JOFA
Scungilli Slushy

The common denominator with players that fall off the cliff is injury and skating.

Skating especially these days.

There are few team sports when limited mobility is a good thing. You get outliers like Messi, but he’s a genius player.

I like how the Oilers are drafting. Athletic (skating) or sick skill. That’s the way.

So if they land Hyman Holland is following that MO. It’s the MO Gretzky states. Risky but making a more calculated risk than we’ve seen before where it was seemingly all previous rep.

Last edited 13 days ago by Scungilli Slushy
godot10

I’m told the eventual downfall
Is just a bill from the restaurant
You told me I could order the moon, babe
Just as long as I shoot what I want
What the last ten minutes have taught me
Bet the hand that your money’s on
Where the Hell have the ’70s brought me?
You trade me away, long gone
For the love of a god, you said
Not a letter from an occupant
The time that your enemy gives you
Good times are not the ones you want
I’ve cried five rivers on the way here
Which one will you skate away on?
The tune you’ll be humming forever
All the words are replaced and wrong
With a shower of “yeahs” and “whatevers”
You trade me away, long gone
For the love of a god, you said
Not a letter from an occupant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBAUQaj6EJo

Wonder Llama

They are on tour celebrating/performing Mass Romantic and Twin Cinema. Probably worth checking out.

rickithebear

Whaler Slamnatto said:
”What did I just Smoke?

My wife says Media school said they are 2 types of readers.
A. Simple mental release stories.
B. Deep inside stories.

OK you are telling me you are not part of my intended audience! part B.
With hope some washes off on Part A.

you come here from relaxing enjoyable communication.
I do that with Homestead & Bushcraft You tube videos.
reminds me of my time clearing land, building cabin, going into the bush lakes & rivers to Canoe and Camp with my DAD.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Except when people constantly ask for more in depth info about your hypotheses you either don’t answer, or say your dog ate your homework.

OriginalPouzar

Smith’s contract is back-loaded, not front-loaded so, yes, there will be relief if he’s assigned to the AHL.

godot10

I think Kenny had a meeting with Katz, and told him contending in the short term as going to require duration risk, and some age risk. Katz has been giving his GMs the money, and they keep rolling snake eyes for him. They may have decided they had no choice if they want to re-sign McDavid and Draisaitl.

Holland got a big contract to deal with a really bad situation. Losing Klefbom, and now Larsson has made it really difficult to get traction. But he has gotten the team to the playoffs twice.

If Chiarelli had only been methodical. He didn’t have to take the risks that he took. All he had to do was not screw it up.

I would feel better about risk if Holland had not blundered early in re-signing Kassian, and trading for Athanasiou. The savior was the Lucic trade, and well making the playoffs and respectability does by a GM some rope.

Hyman has to be a success or all is probably lost. McDavid and Draisaitl will probably not re-sign unless this move works. This is the all-in move to keep McDavid and Draisaitl.

If Hyman is a bust, then in two years we are probably looking at trading McDavid to Toronto or New York for a massive haul and starting over with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, or maybe just with Nugent-Hopkins.

Hyman may have been the only guy who wanted to come. It is understandable why Hall didn’t want to come back. He wants a measure of being a role player, just to regain his sanity after the tumult of his career. Saad just might be disinterested in Canada.

Saad was probably the best option, the one that wasn’t available.

If Hyman busts, Dylan Hollaway (and/or Puljujarvi) is going to have to go supernova to save the day.

How is that for bargaining?

Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

Depression will be when it turns out as always.

Acceptance is when we start all over again in two years.

jtblack

Ppl keep setting some kind of markers or goalposts …. for a team that hasn’t been past round 2 in 15 years …

Some ppl said Conner would leave if they hadn’t had success after 5 years?

Ppl say him and Leon might not sign …

Reality is nobody knows. And the “Hyman” deal won’t be the determining factor …

I would counter the opposite. The franchise has been so poor, that the Hyman deal is an opportunity to provide a real, prove NHL player for 3 years + … and that should impact things positivelty overall

The Trade Guy

I don’t think McDavid stays if he can’t see winning the cup. Having the generational player and failing to win is just shameful. He has a legacy he wants and a ring (if not multiple) should be the goal.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, that would be shameful – of course, McDavid is only 24.

I presume that is his goal, just like its the goal of most players.

I think he believes the org is on the right track – Nuge clearly does.

What’s changed since then? A two-year commitment to Keith (which the leadership group blessed) and Larsson decided to move on.

It looks like the org will likely sign Hyman to a long-term contract. Almost all Oilers fans, in isolation, would love to add Hyman to the team – one of the top skill-set targets.

The GM is willing to give him a much longer term in the name of getting the cap hit down – premise being, lower cap hit to help now, in the next 0-3/4 years with risk later.

Similar with Nuge, longer term contract to keep the AAV down – help now and potential risk in years 6-8.

Isn’t the GM targeting the McDavid/Drai window?

Is this what fans want – go for it now – improve now and worry about “future” later?

The Trade Guy

I think McDavid is probably feeling fine about Edmonton. Its trending in the right direction and players evaluate their teammates and players around the league different than fans. I wouldn’t be surprised if McDavid was ecstatic about the team acquiring Keith.

rickithebear

I looked for a quick methodology to capture the Elite Def Dmen.
I looked at all kinds of Goal affect measures because Dmen affect the x,y,z Corsi path of all loved to goal data.

-Elite Homeplate (Keep to perimeter) Def Dmen affect Corsi Target angle & Distance.
-Elite 0% Corsi (Non scoreable = 0% density) def Dmen affect Corsi thru blocks, forced misses, & hit goalie closed shots
-Goalies thru good performance Open shot save% and poor performance turning closed shots ( based on standard table hockey position) into goals.

So many possible sets of data
Corsi (Just release) Captures def penetration affect)
Fenwick (Corsi to Blocks) captures Penetration,
Shots. (Corsi to shots) captures penetration, all 0% corsi & open shots
these 3 are flawed by partial capture plus no one invented a title fir Corsi to blocks + misses.

So many other combinations:
Fenwick to,
misses to
Shots to

Goals ( Corsi to Goals) captures all the data path.
It does not exclude Open shots is the largest affect of def pressure.
Some times 90% of shots.
It does not adjust for poor and elite Goalie play.

Then I saw J. Peterson jog my bell curve memory
“often only the extremes of the curve matter.”

EVGA had a 80-85% identification rate of the best & worst def Dmen in the gm.
only the 7.5-10% of goalies on both sides of the open shot performance curve were affecting the Def Dmen Identification.
whith affect being time WOWY based.

Wowy was something I manually calculated Thru video in 05/06 to 07/08.
Until “snows” WOWY calculator web site.

EVGA is still the best Quick Low resolution check.
Fenwick a 45% capture rate was worst.
But Blocks are what most people know no so in limited resolution knowledge they Fight to defend the worst measure.
they do not think of Misses or Know about closed shots.

But FewicK worse than Corsi has allways bothered me?
Guess their is something I have to look at!

flyfish1168

If Hymen gets 7 or 8 yrs tath 3 or 4 yrs too long. I have never been a fan of getting overhype players for leafland

RonnieB

Imagine how you’ll feel when Holland sends Tyler Benson to the Leafs as their reward for the sign and trade deal.
It won’t surprise me because I’ve yet to hear Holland utter Benson’s name when he rattles off the names of the Oilers’ prospects.

David

Didn’t protect him, didn’t mention him today in a fairly substantial list of young players. He’ll probably be a throw in on a deal.

OriginalPouzar

He’ll be qualified and signed to a contract over the likes of Kahun and Khaira (who may get signed) – that is something

Randle McMurphy

Kenny. Go get RHD UFA Derek Forbort. Overpay a little if you have to.

Ryan

Forbort shoots left, but he would be a great add to replace the Larsson minutes.

blainer

I would not be surprised if Hyman is using the Oilers to get the contact he wants from another team. Much like what may have happened with Larsson. Holland set the terms to be matched or beat by another team.

I am very confident there will be competition out there to sign this guy. Those who are concerned about his signing with the oil may be happily surprised.

Ryan

That’s what I suggested. Doing the Brett Connolly.

TheGreatBigMac

Why would he visit Edmonton then, the simplest explanation is probably the right one. He’s considering being an Oiler.

OriginalPouzar

I read earlier that Holland was “bidding against himself with Hyman”……

Scungilli Slushy

He has the Connor carrot.

Players that care about hockey would strongly consider that.

Like any sport (or just generally) lots don’t or think it’s all a crap shoot so go for money and lifestyle.

A team should want those that are driven. Of course.

Especially with the core the Oilers have. They want it bad as I see it.

rickithebear

31 Saves:
Thanks for the reminder:
Chemo has got rid of my Picture Memory.
You are correct!

I will watch the Goals given up to see what drove them.
-Rollasson: Poor Play
-OPP FWDs: Above 75% open shot density
Our DEF: Homeplate Abandonment

rickithebear

A simple data test:
I stated you need defence to win championships.
My data check had shown you need less than 2.00 GAA in 4 Wins of the final 4 series.

This yr It seemed as if I was seeing that standard all the way thru.
Lets look at all series winners 4 gm wins GA.

RD1
MTL-TOR 7G 1.75 GAA
WPG/EDM 9G 2.25 GAA
VGK/STL 7G 1.75 GAA
COL/STL 7G 1.75 GAA
CAR/NSH 7G 1.75 GAA
TMP/FLD 7G 1.75 GAA
BOS/WSH 7G 1.75 GAA
NYI/PIT 9G 2.25 GAA

RD2
MTL/WPG 7G 1.75 GAA
VGK/COL 8G 2.00 GAA
TMP/CAR 6G 1.50 GAA
NYI/BOS 10G 2.50 GAA

Conf
MTL/VGK 7G 1.75 GAA
TMP/NYI 3G .75 GAA

Final
TMP/MTL 5G 1.25 GAA

Still seeing a high def standard in final 4 and a spread of better def they the other rounds.
Indication of the deeper Def Champ core roster teams rising to the top.
Expected a quick Tampa Win based on Def roster & EVG depth.
But I would never guess.

rickithebear

randle McMurphy:
we had top 5 Open shot Save% Goalie Rolloson in net with a 3-1 lead in GM 1 of cup final.
one goal.
He was replaced by 2 of the worst open Save% goalies in the league.

Moreau, “we went from having the best goalie in the world to – this is not a comment on Jussi or Ty’s ability – but Rollie was at a different level.

It was the sole reason we lost.
Car 4 Wins:
5-4, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1, 15GA, 3.00 GAA
giving up 4G without Rollie is why we lost.

31saves

Not entirely accurate. Roloson was hurt with 5:36 left in regulation with the game tied 4-4. It was the first game of the playoffs Roli had given up that many goals, but Conklin messed up in game one, allowing one goal. Jussi actually played very well. Two of those losses he only allowed two goals, including game 7

Randle McMurphy

What do you think of Frederik Andersen Ricki?

OriginalPouzar

Roloson was not a top 5 anything in the league (except for giving up terrible goals at bad times). With that said, he was lights out in the playoffs and a massive reason the Oilers made it to where they did. With that said, my recollection is that Roli’s 6-week heater was already cooling off and he was regression back to his traditional play.

Ryan

Spector.

  1. We’re walking away from Kahun
  2. Buying out Neal.
  3. A few other tidbits I won’t mention for the 24hr rule.

Forgot that recent Podcast link someone had shared, but it was interesting when Holland mentioned that Ethan Bear was 21/22 years old.

Elgin R

Yup and my grandfather thought I was a young man in my 20s when I was approaching 40! When a GM thinks that trading for or signing players in their late, late 30s is the right play, everyone younger than 25 is just a pup fresh out of junior.

OriginalPouzar

Just for accuracy, Spec says that its more likely Neal than Mikko but didn’t sound like Holland had confirmed that to him.

rickithebear

One White paper Theories I read was from this site.
It changed my opinion.
Being a high function Autistic it provided great evidence for that idea.

White Paper: Is a quick data check into a theory that shows concrete Known Scientific evidence of viable proof of theory.
Then it needs to pass the return on investment factor in Business or popularity test in Academics.

My data chase partnered with a NJ company lead to Battle River unit 5 test & Sherrness conversion to NG saving all Non coal based jobs.

That White paper Idea was presented by Alan Mitchell.
Cannot remember if he credited it to someone else or if it was his own.
”Pennets are the measure of an organization, not making the playoffs”

A mantra I follow:
Being a fan of the Detroit lions (The Worst Pro Sports Org, TML 2nd)
I understand needless losing.

Now Lions have a High Resolution Analytics GM,
Who partnered with a coach that recognizes the high win affect actions like him.
Coach brought in Coaching staff with list of players who had their best yrs with them.

They use high resolution video based human machine action analysis partnered with gm speed Telemetry. (Thanks DAD)

Whaler Slamamoto

What did I just smoke??

Reja

Caterpillar

DevilsLettuce

That’s going to be about tree fiddy

JOFA

It might be the Ambergris Ricki is peddling 😉

The Trade Guy

Brad Holmes is legit. Let’s go!

Bill

What’s RD Cody Franson up to these days?

Tarkus

Well, he had recently found himself in another part of the world (KHL), but then he signed last season in Rockford (AHL) where he may have found himself behind the wheel of a large automobile.

Then he may have found himself in a beautiful house, but it’s not certain whether he has a beautiful wife.

But being in full possession of his faculties, he probably didn’t ask himself, “Well…how did I get here?”

Bill

Just saw that he re signed with an AHL team for next season.

flea

I think Hyman is a different player than Lucic. He’s more of a Maroon type player.

The contract sounds toxic but I really think he’d be a great fit in the top 6. Like Keith, don’t hate the player, hate the game.

Revolved

I think the most important difference to Lucic is that Hyman is a strong skater to the point he can kill penalties. 8 years is a long time, though.

Anyone know how many seasons he’s been playing with Marner and Matthews?

jeetz

Also consider where the salary cap might be in the last 3 years of his contract. Could be 90+ mil. Plus he could become a middle 6 player and a fan favorite

DBO

worry about what we can do gang. constant flagging of past misses merely leads to excessive day drinking. regular day drinking is fine.

So Hyman being essentially done. Him and Nuge in 4 years will be our 3C and 3LW. Both playing top PK and tough minutes as solid two way vets. I can live with that. That’s good depth, and their cap hits won’t be as painful with a cap increase (think in todays dollars it being around $3.5 mill, which is par for the course in a solid 3C and 3W)

What is the next priority?
1A/B goalie like Ullmark?
3C like Danault?
1/2RD via trade?
3LD upgrade on Russell?

Wuold anyone do our1st and Neal for rights to Ullmark and Ristolainen? Yes I know his deficiencies, but get him put of Buffalo and Risto could be a solid RD. Hoping for big bounce backs from both Risto and Keith is a lot to ask.

Who is the best RD we could trade for (since no way Hamilton is coming here. just accept it)?

Elgin R

Not a fan if Cossa is still available. If Cossa is gone as many pundits are predicting, then yes absolutely.

Ullmark only made $2.6m last year (currently UFA) and Holland should be able to pay him around the same. Holland would have to get rid of Mikko through a trade or buyout.

Risto is in the final year before UFA and is at $5.4m so should be around the same for a new contract. Love the player.

I would do the trade but only if a contract (Ullmark) and extension (Risto) were negotiated BEFORE the trade was done.

OriginalPouzar

From Holland today, doesn’t sound like there will be enough cap to acquire a substantial 3C, not with him wanting to get a couple d-men and a top 6 forward.

Randle McMurphy

Whew! Mike Smith safely in Cap Friendly now.

Take a break Kenny.

Last edited 13 days ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

Ben

 July 22, 2021 8:41 am

Please baby J let Seravalli’s Hamilton piece come true. Please let his Bear piece not come true.

Well, Holland was pretty clear he’s not acquiring an $8M d-man.

He was also very clear that Bear is a part of the future as he was mentioned when talking about needing to keep cap space for raises in the coming years.

godot10

If Holland is interested in Hamilton, he is NOT going to admit it in a press conference, regardless of how transparent he otherwise was about what he was up to.

OriginalPouzar

From listening to Holland over the last few years, i have little doubt that he will be not be bidding on Hamilton. There are various ways that he could have phrased the answer.

jeetz

If we could land Hamilton, and I know things do not look that way, we can use Bear to get a significant forward back (Rienhart or a similar player with similar $$ but a forward such as Sam Steel)

Dustylegnd

28 year old power forwards are organizational death Look at what Pizza Boys signings in Calgary have done…Brower (bought out) Neil then swapped for Lucic…the Flickers are a disaster…Holland is sailing this ship right on to the reef …..Leon has 3 years before they need to make a decision on losing him for nothing trying to resign or trading him…this script is a nightmare

Ryan

Zach Clarkson is already 29.

Ryan

There’s still hope, isn’t there, that Hyman is doing the ol’ Brett Connolly?

Last edited 13 days ago by Ryan
pts2pndr

There will be a hard decision to be made. Not good to look that far out as far as your sanity is concerned. Assuming the young D do well and we draft Cossa and he is what we think he is, there is a possibility that Draisaitl and Connor will both fit under an increasing cap. If the young wingers pan out and the cap increases many things are possible. HH might also get a prediction right! 😉. I think it is time we think positive and disregard HH and his ilk that will always attempt to make being an Oiler fan difficult. Note
note: No Canadian team has won as many cups as our Oilers since they came into the NHL. If HH is right and our management is incompetent what does it say about theirs!

maudite

Million less in cap than Keith’s, 28 year old with probably comparable upside for 2nd pairing….

We’d have:

Ghost
Jones 
Philly 2nd rnd pick
Our 3rd rnd pick 
Philly 7th rnd pick

Or Keith  

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&p1=8470281&p2=8476906&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

SoCaloil

But you’d have no pedigree!

Reja

Pedigree didn’t help Bouchard who goes from bench warmer to possibly in over his head if not handled properly. Bouchard should of been playing 3rd pairing minutes last year.

Sierra

You worry about Bouchard, a lot. You weren’t happy Bouchard didn’t play last season and now you are worried he will play too much this season.

If Bouchard is on over his head this season would it not be safe to assume he would have been equally in over his head last season?

Last edited 13 days ago by Sierra
pts2pndr

Hind sight is 2020. What should have happened is irrelevant. You take what is and move forward! His minutes would have been increased if there had been injuries on right D. COVID-19 and the taxi squad also played a part in his limited ice time. We can’t change the past no matter how much we would like to!

Ryan

Yeah, it is interesting to contemplate.

I wonder what Chicago would have packaged with to move Keith before the expansion draft if we weren’t interested.

maudite

Definitely not a negative 3rd round pick, at very least.

Last edited 13 days ago by maudite
PokeCheck

I still can’t believe that the pick was conditional in Chicago’s favour. Outrageous.

Keeper_13

Know it’s not happening, but would vastly prefer Hamilton to Hyman. So many opportunities squandered so far this off season. LT’s Hyman/Lucic comparison really discouraged me. For me, it’s less the Summer of Anger and more the Sad Trombone Summer. Bwa bwa.

Alpine

Even beyond Lucic, there’s a whole host of guys who were bottom six quality 2 or 3 years into their contracts. Callahan, Ladd, Backes. I’m sure there’s more. Brouwer bought out after two years.

Then there’s Dustin Brown who was bottom six quality for the first four years of his contract and top six for the final four. One of the strangest career progressions I’ve seen. He appears to be far more durable than all the other comparables, including Hyman.

pts2pndr

I’m not sure how he would have fit as Connors left wing as was determined by the majority as our number one priority!😉

Harpers Hair

Rangers sign Barclay Goodrow…6X$3.6 million.

pts2pndr

Any other MAJOR contributions you can make!

Randle McMurphy

Think about it, Dubas and Leafs fans don’t want Hyman signing in Edmonton. (or Boston 🙂 )

Won’t be surprised if Dubas holds out for a middle round pick for negotiating rights.

PokeCheck

Well, if he does, I’m pretty sure we don’t have one of those ’til 2028.

Eh Team

There’s no reason to trade anything to Toronto for Hyman. Just wait a week and sign him. 7 year deal or 8 year deal, makes no material difference.

Ozoil

Can’t sign him to an 8 year deal unless he is traded for

OriginalPouzar

I think that extra year may make a $300K to $400K difference in the AAV – that last year would be very low comp, I’m sure.

leadfarmer

Please no Ristolainen. He is terrible

Ryan

Well, he plays 22 min per night 🙂

I think Risto would have a better chance of being the next Jeff Petry (playing too many minutes on a bad time) at age 26 than a 38-year-old Duncan Keith.

His player card isn’t pretty though.

Side

Every time I try to visit the site now and get a Database connection error, I start googling to see if a trade happened.

fistycuff

Its been rough for sure. Especially with this weeks furious action. Things happen quickly.

Randle McMurphy

Well it’s not like LT didn’t warn us. It’s right there in the first paragraph.

“Ladies and Gentlemen, It’s Go Daddy time”

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think the Database Error is a function of high traffic.

The site has operated just fine (for me) during a couple very high traffic periods and then I’d get the error around 10:30 at night when the traffic is low.

Ryan

It’s been a combination of Godaddy hosting being overwhelmed and gremlins in the server.

Lowetide recently spent hours on the horn with Godaddy. It’s a lot better since he did that.

This website has thousands of hits plus there’s an unknown number of users logged in all the time constantly refreshing their webpage to see the new comments.

The mystery is determining what type of hosting package would rectify the issue.

Years ago, I managed a website with similar traffic to Lowetide, with lots of logged in users and I paid about $300 month in hosting fees (for a private server). Now technology is much better now, but I have no way of forecasting how much it would cost to prevent these issues.
However, that was doing everything myself unlike now where most people use ‘manged WordPress’ hosting which is far less work, but also more expensive.

In the old days the only way to find out was to jump from shared hosting to VPS to my own server then to better quality servers. I don’t know if much has changed in that regard.

Last edited 13 days ago by Ryan
Side

Oh damn, thanks for the info Ryan. I definitely appreciate the effort you and LT put into the site. Apologies if my comment came across as a knock against the site and efforts into keeping it going. Free agency + connection errors just gets some adrenaline a pumpin.

OriginalPouzar

The numbers I pay attention to (and have for years) suggest Zach Hyman is a solid target for the Oilers. The two concerns are AAV and term. I think Oilers fans will be able to live with the AAV (a little over $5 million) and it sounds like an eight-year deal so that’s going to mean a buyout down the line.

Adding Hyman to the team next year is a good add – no doubt on that. He should be a legit acquisition target.

We know the risk here with this player – his age, plus his style plus his recent injury issues. There is clearly massive regression risk over time and, even before, injury regression risk.

We have a long history that shows this player is inferior to Ryan Nugent Hopkins, and older, and likely to regress less gracefully.

I understand its going to take the “Nuge contract” at that term and AAV to get the guy. I want the guy but its really hard to accept the “Nuge contract” for an inferior player with larger risk.

I get it. I understand what Holland is doing and I will be excited to add the player to next year’s roster.

At some point, I want a transaction where its just a win, win, win, for the org and not a “win here” at the expense of “risk here”, for example.

Keeper_13

This summer, watching Ken Holland reminds me of watching someone who is in charge of tax dollars absolutely wasting money hand over fist and thinking, “there is no way in hell you would squander your own money that way.”
Either that, or it’s watching the moment that a guy who used to be one of the best realizes that he’s gotten old and lost a step. No idea what Holland’s plan was for this off season. Does this franchise make long term plans? Do they have multiple contingency plans? Do they have A contingency plan? Puzzling.

JimmyV1965

It certainly doesn’t look like he has a plan. Go hard for the guys who are available. I’m sure Barrie is next up, or maybe Hamonic. It’s exhausting being an Oiler fan.

Elgin R

Oh I sure there are plans. Plans for lunch that is.

Bill Scott: Hey Ken pass over one of those delicious Bobby Nix Burgers.
Ken: Sure, I think I’ll have one myself. Munch, munch …. did I ever tell you about how we just crushed it in Detroit before the stupid cap was put in place …. munch, munch …. ugh …. Detroit …. munch, munch …. Detroit.
Bill Scott: So who do like in free agency?
Ken: Well, …. munch, munch …. in Detroit …

And on and on it goes.

pts2pndr

Okay to judge the decisions but not the character of the man making them as sometimes we won’t to do. I think Holland has done much to improve the franchise overall. I think he made an overpay on Keith and question it but I don’t have all the information. It is my belief as ardent as we are about our team we need to back off a little to see where this takes us. We are in a fluid situation and are making judgement

pts2pndr

I hope you’re younger than me as the wait could be substantial!😉

OriginalPouzar

Holland put the kybosh on LT’s roster in certain parts:

1) Kahun won’t be qualified – I guess they could bring him back but it seems unlikely (Khaira more likely)

2) When asked about a 3C acquisition – Holland essentially stated there probably isn’t enough money for that and talked about needing internal growth over time to help fill holes. I don’t see a Granlund for term type deal

Keeper_13

I would have liked to see Kahun get some more at-bats with McDavid, I thought they showed allright together in a small sample size.

Material Elvis

So goddamn annoying that he claims there is no money to address such a glaring hole in the roster (unless they are planning on RNH at 3C, which I doubt). Now maybe he realizes that he should have had Bowman retain cap hit.

OriginalPouzar

He tried to get Bowman to retain – as he said, a number of times, acquisition cost would have been much higher if Bowman agreed to retain.

Yes, I know he could have/should walked away but he wanted the player.

Rondo

What about Tyler Bertuzzi?

Don’t want Ruotsalainen, can’t remember where I heard it but in the east they think he’s overrated.

OriginalPouzar

Reijo Ruotsalainen was an absolute gem.

Thank goodness the org didn’t trade Nurse for Rasmus Ristolainen like so many wanted to, year after year.

PokeCheck

Alex Nedeljkovic for a third… on a day we signed Mike Smith to a 2-year contract. Are the phones plugged in at Oiler HQ?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Such a shame he’s never been available for FREE before.

Someone

I think somebody played with Holland’s spreadsheet, and swapped the numbers in the wins and goals column with the number in the age column.

godot10

The Oilers don’t have a 3rd round pick to give.

maudite

Beat me to this!

Sierra

The Oilers couldn’t come up with something or is everyone stumped because they have no 3rd round pick. Might as well not try, right?

€√¥£€^$

Apparently the Dylan Wells acquisition squeezed out Ned, lol.

Dammit Kenneth, grind harder man, that should have been what your futures brought back… What the hell is the frequency?

Crazy times…

Last edited 13 days ago by €√¥£€^$
PokeCheck

Who knows, a competent GM with the same assets available may have turned our 1st into Nedeljkovic and Foegele or Nedeljkovic and a 2nd.

GordieHoweHatTrick

There are many creative ways to make deals. Maybe Kenny already forgot about the future considerations. The frequency is static.

Oil2Oilers

My nephew, the Detroit fan, called at the end of the Holland news conference to gloat.

The new guy in Detroit just signed a promising young goalie for a reasonable price and a promising young 3C for a reasonable cost. He is left with $40M in cap space and loads of draft picks.

The old guy from Detroit continues to double down on old and expensive players and burn draft picks for fun.

We will see which strategy works out.

Randle McMurphy

Your nephew’s a Detroit fan and he gloating…that’s rich. 🙂

Reja

We could of had Gretzky and his first GM gig but the masses wanted zero to do with the OBC. Watch what you wish for when he bought out Sekera my first thought was ooh no here comes the smartest man in the league mentality

Last edited 13 days ago by Reja
BornInAGretzkyJersey

You’ve said this a number of times before, and I’m absolutely baffled as to what you’re talking about, so I’ll ask specifically.

What exactly does Keith Gretzky, previously of the Coyotes and Bruins organizations, have to do with the Old Boys’ Club in Edmonton?

jzed

Kemp and Deharnais(?) should be watching video of Larsson’s grease in the corners between sets in the weight room. Keep the best line in AHL together for a cheap 4 th line that might actually score once in a while. Signing free agents for big money and term, been there, regret that

Randle McMurphy

As the anger subsides, I’m just glad Larsson didn’t go to another Canadian team.

Keeper_13

One Robyn Regehr was enough, thanks all the same.

Harpers Hair

The Oilers will play the Kraken 6 times per season.

pts2pndr

And this is important how? On a one to ten scale so does everyone in the division. Get back to your bridge or check your meds!

DevilsLettuce

I wish Larsson had some Regehr moments, alas he treated no one they way Robyn beat on poor Ales.

Keeper_13

I thought he was the closest thing we’ve had to Jason Smith since Jason Smith. But yeah, poor Ales.

Randle McMurphy

Adam Larsson will be retired before Seattle will be competitive.

Randle McMurphy

What have teams paid in the past for negotiating rights to a pending UFA?

innercitysmytty

Not qualifying JJ at his number makes sense if he still plans to sign him at a reduced AAV over maybe 2 years. Not qualifying Kahun is throwing away found money because he’s likely someone that is tradeable if you do qualify him.

godot10

Kahun could easily get a 50-100% raise in arbitration. And the Oilers are not allowed to walk away.

Kahun at $1 million fine. At $1.5-2 million, no.

innercitysmytty

Certainly a risk for sure, but not sure his season warrants that kind of a bump. Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened in arbitration though.

godot10

Kahun has played more than one season.

OriginalPouzar

I would like Khaun back but, at the end of the day, the Oilers have Nuge and likely Hyman at LW (Hyman can play both – maybe they sign him for RW and Tatar for left, I don’t know).

They also have Benson and Holloway competing for left wing jobs and potentially McLeod who can play LW and Khaira who can play LW plus Shore.

Is it unreasonable to suggest that Benson can produce as much as Kahun in a similar opportunity?

OriginalPouzar

Arbitrators can use, I believe, 3-years of comparables.

Rondo

How do you compete when you don’t have reliable goaltending?

ArmchairGM

You get two unreliable goalies and let your coaches decide which to go with every night.

Randle McMurphy

Come on. This is an analytics site.

You just add an unreliable defense.

A negative times a negative is.. ?

Last edited 13 days ago by Randle McMurphy
GordieHoweHatTrick

You just “compete with yourself” making stupid decisions.

kinda like jerking off, but less satisfying cause it never ends

Keeper_13

4 bong hits, 1 pair of rose coloured glasses, suddenly it seems like we have 3 goalies who might work out, surely ONE of them must!

Reja

He had a perfect chance to dump Mikko on the Keith trade but he didn’t want Bowman to think negatively on him.

OriginalPouzar

Reja

 Reply to Rondo

 July 22, 2021 2:43 pm

He had a perfect chance to dump Mikko on the Keith trade but he didn’t want Bowman to think negatively on him.

Considering that Holland has been actively trying to move Mikko and did try and reduce the cap add in the Keith acquisition, no, it doesn’t seem like that “perfect opportunity” was actually real.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Was Nedeljkovic not on waivers at one point, when we were short a goaler, and we still didn’t put a claim in?

dustrock

Yes, after Carolina took Forsberg to top it off. Ken Holland baby!

Ryan

You think you can smoke out Don Waddell?

Randle McMurphy

Whose your favorite GM?

He didn’t take him either

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Doesn’t matter what Sakic did or didn’t do. His goaltending situation was nothing similar to that in Edmonton.

It was an unforced error from a couple standpoints.

At that time EDM was left without a reasonable option to back up Koskinen during Smith’s injury. Enter Stuart Skinner. Quality prospect, yes, but certainly too raw to be put to the test.

When that went down I was furious with Holland because it was publicly known that Nedeljkovic was one of the top goaltenders not in the NHL. Claiming him would have immediately put Skinner back in the AHL where he belonged (obviously following quarantine), and eliminated the prolonged search for the varying shades of beige that followed.

Then look at his age and contract status, which as an RFA meant team control and the ability to grow with the core if things worked out well. If not, he was a cheap stop gap solution for a handful of games.

Doing Waddell a favour did the Oilers a detriment.

Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) Tweeted:
#Flames trade a 2022 4th round pick to #SeaKraken for Tyler Pitlick.

https://twitter.com/nhlupdate/status/1418273084545454083?s=20

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