The list remains the same, but not for much longer. Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland needs a scoring left-winger with a defensive conscience for the McDavid line, a No. 3 center, a RH defenseman and one, maybe two goalies. If his RH defenseman is a skill blue, he’ll need a shutdown type and that would mean another defenseman. Ladies and gentleman, it’s go time.
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: If the UFA market fails, can the Oilers find their 3rd-line centre internally?
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- New DNB: The Oilers must act fast to address their hole on defence
- DNB: Replacing Adam Larsson
- Lowetide: Why Dominik Kahun is the best Oilers expansion option for the Kraken
- Lowetide: 5 players outside the NHL who could help the Oilers
- New DNB: Adam Larsson and free agency? Who’s on the expansion list?
- New DNB: Oilers talking to Zach Hyman’s camp
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from Oilers’ previous drafts
- Lowetide: What did the Oilers sacrifice in sending Caleb Jones to Chicago in the Duncan Keith trade?
- Jonathan Willis: Duncan Keith, by the numbers
- DNB: How Ken Holland’s overpay for Duncan Keith limits the Oilers’ offseason options
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for the Oilers to target this offseason
- Jonathan Willis: Yes or no? Have your say on 10 hypothetical Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Is this the year the Oilers find a world-class agitator in the draft?
- Lowetide: Which draft prospects will be available when the Oilers pick at No. 19?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2021-22 roster projection, including trade and free agent targets
- DNB: How do Oilers fans feel about their team’s 2020-21 season?
- Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER
This sees James Neal bought out, Oscar Klefbom on LTIR, Adam Larsson at Pike’s Place Market, Mikko Koskinen is off to Nashville for Borocop (who is in Bakersfield), Zack Kassian ($500,000 retained) is playing in Manhattan and Julien Gauthier canNOT believe how much less expensive it is to live in Edmonton. Hyman is acquired for a 2021 sixth-round pick and signed from here to eternity.
I have McIlrath as 7D but suspect Philip Broberg or Dmitri Samorukov will be making their NHL debuts early in the year. Kris Russell is going to play more than you think. There is $2 million in cap room so the Oilers would have to send McIlrath, McLeod and Bouchard down on paper to make it happen. Frank Seravalli, who will be a guest on the Lowdown this morning, has some interesting thoughts at Daily Faceoff.
The numbers I pay attention to (and have for years) suggest Zach Hyman is a solid target for the Oilers. The two concerns are AAV and term. I think Oilers fans will be able to live with the AAV (a little over $5 million) and it sounds like an eight-year deal so that’s going to mean a buyout down the line.
Holland is gathering as much talent as he can, and is willing to give term in exchange for lower cap. In the example above, the Oilers sign all of Hyman, Barrie, Ullmark, Granlund and (previously) Nugent-Hopkins with this in mind. I don’t think we’ll see four additions to the roster, but three is possible. I don’t believe Holland will have enough for the “Granlund” in my example.
- Hyman vs elites five on five: 300 minutes, 46.7 percent of his overall time. 53.8 DFF%, 5.68 DFFRel, 17-6 goals.
- Hyman five on five pts 60: 2.14
- Hyman five on five pts 60 without Matthews: 2.01
- Hyman five on five Corsi pct: 52.6
- Hyman five on five shot differential: 54.0
- Hyman five on five goal differential: 66.7
- Hyman five on five expected goals: 60.0
MILAN LUCIC 2015-16
- Lucic vs elites five on five: 467 minutes, 39.6 percent of his overall time. 55.1 DFF%, 7.11 DFFRel, 31-12 goals.
- Lucic five on five pts 60: 2.09
- Lucic five on five Corsi pct: 59.4
- Lucic five on five shot differential: 57.4
- Lucic five on five goal differential: 61.4
- Lucic five on five expected goals: 57.8
Two great and similar seasons from each man and we should be aware that both men represented here were at the edge of 30 and that’s when there’s a major dive in performance. Ken Holland isn’t as fearful of age as, well, anyone in an NHL general manager’s chair, and the buy looks great in both cases.
Let’s be clear: These investments always involve long-term deals and regret somewhere during the course of the deal. That came painfully early in Edmonton for Lucic and we don’t know Hyman’s future.
On the day Edmonton signed Lucic, I wrote “the Taylor Hall Oilers are gone. They are gone. That is a fact. Pray baby Jesus the new boy King gets more support than the last boy hero. I think that is what this week is about, and the man charged with the heavy work had an idea about this roster many of us did not share.”
However, it’s easy to buy in to these things, and I did with Lucic, a player I had followed for the entirety of his NHL career. Same day, I wrote “Milan Lucic is a perfect fit for the Oilers fan, I hope you give him a chance this winter. He is not Taylor Hall, he is Milan Lucic—and just as Whitey Herzog and Earl Weaver won with jackrabbits or a bloop and a blast, so too can the Edmonton Oilers win with a power lineup that is complemented with speed and skill.”
This will be a big day. Make sure you prepare for good and bad. Enjoy the good, anticipate the bad as best you can. Time waits for no one.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we have a busy show on TSN1260. Connor Halley from TSN1260 will join us to talk about Elks training camp, injuries, cuts and how things are progressing. At 11, Frank Seravalli from Daily Faceoff pops in and gives us an update on what’s happening with the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!