Time of the Season

by Lowetide

This is a blow. Adam Larsson suppressed offense, and even though we don’t have a pristine way to measure defensive excellence, Puck IQ’s tracking of this player over the years shows an impressive resume. Sail on, Skelleftea AIK throwback blue, I know you’ll enjoy Seattle and carving Kraken opponents in the coming years.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

THE DAYS AHEAD

The thoughts come quickly in the moments after surprising news, getting those thoughts in order is difficult, writng them down damned dangerous.

You’re going to hear many things about why this happened, and it’s fair to be critical of the organization for not getting a deal done. I would only say that the money ($4 million times four years) was exactly what we’d discussed on this blog going back to the beginning of the offseason.

So, I think we can speculate Larsson chose a new day, away from Edmonton where there are some tough personal memories and where his partner in crime (Oscar Klefbom) no longer plays. Sometimes it’s about finding a new home, a new place in the sun, putting sad days behind you.

I wish him the very best.

Suspect Ken Holland will check down to Tyson Barrie and it will probably cost more for the Oilers to sign the puck mover than the defender.

I mentioned previously (on the Lowdown and I believe here) that a Duncan Keith-Ethan Bear tandem was a good fit and suspect we’ll see that come to fruition. It’ll be a small pairing, and at some point Dave Tippett may shuffle, but for me that’s a pairing that should be able to move the puck. Bear is badly underrated by the fans in Edmonton at this point, one good thing is the young man isn’t going to be dealt anytime soon.

Tippett will want another shutdown blue, and Jamie Oleskiak is also off to the left coast. There are names out there, and Holland has $4 million to use if he doesn’t sign Barrie, but one suspects we’ll see a Dmitri Kulikov level player added and the organization talking about Kris Russell and William Lagesson.

Dmitri Samorukov and Philip Broberg would be considerations, but the RH side on the third pair is Evan Bouchard. It’s unlikely Tippett will run that kind of combination.

Finally a few words on Ken Holland’s summer. Signing Nuge to that contract was a solid start, the Duncan Keith transaction (in my opinion) too much by plenty given up for a player who isn’t a lock to cover those tough second pair minutes.

The Larsson exit will be seen as an extreme body blow and that’s absolutely true. Always remember that in life it isn’t what happens to you, it’s what you do about it.

Ken Holland won’t have Adam Larsson patrolling the right side defense in 2021-22, but he does have two quality youngsters who play the position. I’d bet good money on Edmonton opening the 2021-22 season with Nurse-Barrie, Keith-Bear and Russell-Bouchard on defense. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dylan McIlrath signed as No. 7 defenseman in the coming weeks, although Lagesson is valued by the organization.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A loaded show this morning, we begin at 10, TSN 1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will drop by at 10:20 to talk Larsson’s exit and Holland’s next step. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will have a full slate of topics including NBA, CFL and MLB. Corey Pronman from The Athletic will join me at 11:20 to talk 2021 NHL draft and your comments are welcome at 10-1260 text or at Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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delooper

I don’t understand the criticism of Seattle’s picks. To me it makes perfect sense: salaries for NHL players do not correspond with team performance. i.e. People focus on having big-ticket players (i.e. players that looked good in the past) to their detriment.

Success in the playoffs is largely centred about having a solid core of reasonably-priced good NHL players. It’s kind of the point of this blog, people overlook the middling, reasonably-good players because they get dazzled by the big-ticket items like McDavid.

Presumably Seattle isn’t done, either. They realize plenty of teams are cap-strangled, so having a low cap hit puts you in a great bargaining position.

TheGreatBigMac

I know the term stinks but I like Hyman and will be happy if he is coming. He should be a good bet to cover 4 x $5M. The odds are against him on the back half but he could still be useful.

Also note inflation is going up in the US a lot, if it continues for another year or two that will have significant impact pushing the cap up. I think a lot of the inflation is driven by US energy policy pushing oil prices up, so win/win for Oil country even without keystone.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheGreatBigMac
ArmchairGM

Yeah, I think this (and the Nuge deal) is Ken betting on a rapidly rising cap in years 3-8. $5M hit on a 100M cap is like a $4M hit on an $81.5M cap. Is a 36-year-old Hyman worth $4M in today’s dollars? Probably not, but it’s more palatable when you think of it that way.

delooper

The problem with betting on a rising cap is it is speculation. Moreoever, if it even happens, it’s something that benefits all teams, not just the Oilers. So strategically it’s at best a nothing burger.

MADOIL

Stauffer yesterday was hinting at couple of trades wasn’t he? I thought about all the rumours we’ve been hearing and this is what may transpire in the next few days.

Oil trades Kassian to the Rangers for Strome (one for one)
Oil trades Koski + Prospect (not named Holloway / Broberg /Sam /Lavoie) for Debrusk. Boston will need a goalie as Rask is out for the 1st part of next year on LTIR.

And finally Oil will also sign UFA Joel Armia

The Oilers lineup will look something like this.

Hyman McDavid JP
Nuge Drai Armia
Debrusk Strome Yama
Benson Mcleod Archi
With either Khaira or Chiasson signed for just over 1 million

Nurse Barrie
Keith Bear
Forbort Bouchard

Smith
Marazek

I did not look at Capfriendly to see if the $$ work but I think it will. Also, based on their play, we can choose to resign or walk away from Debrusk / Strome next year.

The question is – is this a contending team? The forwsrd group is decent (better than last year’s lineup) but the defense is wonky. I’d rather sign Hamonic for 1 year than Barrie for 3/4 years as this will give us the flexibility to go for a good D (Parayko?) next year.

Thoughts?

London Jon

That would be great but the other teams aren’t agreeing to those trades

OriginalPouzar

Also per Servavelli at the DFO, Oilers are a sneaky darkhorse for Dougie Hamilton

Servallei has been all over everything the last few weeks.

OriginalPouzar

Per Seravelli:

NHL Schedule being released later today which WILL have a 3-week Olympic break.

They have a back-up schedule with no break but I’m very happy that they are releasing one with the break as, if nothing else, its a good sign.  

Lots of work to do before they are officially going to the Olympics but the players want to go and I want to watch the first real best on best international hockey tournament in many many years.

Coiler

Just listened to Friedman’s podcast on 31 thoughts and he mentioned that he spoke to a current oiler player who stated that Larsson was simply looking for a fresh start.
He mentioned that he was never comfortable in Edmonton after the trade for Hall and all of the one for one talk. That, plus Klefbom’s departure and his losing his dad took a toll on him.

leadfarmer

I may be in the minority but looking at a top 4 of Oleksiak Gio
Dunn Larsson
doesn’t exactly impress me

innercitysmytty

Fully agree – nobody will be moving the puck in that top 4.

ArmchairGM

Dunn will be, but he can’t defend. He’s been consistently one of the most sheltered 3rd pairing defenders in the league.

Fiveinatrailer

The last time we had ANY cap room was 2016. Which was the summer of Looch.

Had ANY player signed that summer covered their bet?
lucic
erikson
laad
all got identical contracts if I recall

maudite

It’s bizarre watching all these teams flailing around trying to dump the last 2-4 years of these contracts while at same time try to sign up for another batch…

More than 4 year term has to drop AAV significantly.

Hyman 3×6, 4×5, 5×4.5, 6×4,7×3.75

With real dollars tailing off to make it easier to trade…Only way these type of deals make sense

Last edited 1 month ago by maudite
ArmchairGM

I think Hyman gets the Nuge deal exactly, but with less NMC protection.

€√¥£€^$

For those wondering, Seattle’s side deals for the expansion draft—and there are apparently several—will be announced tomorrow after 1pm et when the NHL’s trade/signing freeze comes off.

— Gord Miller (@GMillerTSN) July 22, 2021

defmn

@kevin_mcgran
·
1h
Hearing Zach Hyman close to deal in EDM … “It’s in the Leafs corner.”

Harpers Hair

Hearing for a couple of picks and perhaps taking on Klefbom’s LTIR for cap relief purposes.

defmn

Yeah, I’ve seen a few scenarios. Klefbom’s LTIR would help.

jp

Klefbom’s LTIR would help.

How so? I’ve been using Klefbom’s cap relief to sign a player or players every time I try to fill out the Oilers 21-22 roster.

Holland used it to sign Barrie last season. The Oilers are a team that wants and needs that LTIR relief every bit as much as the Leafs do, are they not?

defmn

Isn’t it better to just have the cap space with no strings attached?

jp

No, I don’t think so.

That cap space is created because of Klefbom’s contract and injury. The Oilers can spend $4M over the cap this year if they can manage to get compliant on day 1. It’s why the leafs want to take on his deal, I think.

Last edited 1 month ago by jp
jp

Huh. Looking into it a bit more I guess you’re right.

If a team is already in cap hell/LTIR, then adding more LTIR is helpful. Otherwise, not at all.

My bad, I misunderstood the loophole.

(so yes, it would help)

defmn

No problem. The other way it works is for the Oilers to keep Klefbom and try and add LTIR themselves but as OP will chime in this limits in season moves.

OriginalPouzar

It would be much better to get rid of the cap hit completely than use it for LTIR reserves. Caveat: Losing the player who may play in the future is a separate matter.

I don’t understand the potential for teams acquiring it to help them create cap space – i. wouldn’t. Yes, they’d be able to use potentially $4.1M in LTIR reserves but they would also have $4.1M added to the cap.

leadfarmer

That’s 8 mil dollars
dang

Crazy Pedestrian

You know what, if the oilers trade a 7th rounder to get the rights to sign Hyman at $5M or less AAV, I’m not going to complain much. Seeing as all the other major players out there that everyone want them to sign reportedly don’t want to sign with Edmonton (Hamilton, Hall, Landeskog). He might not be the sturdiest player out there, but he’s productive and he plays in all faucets of the game (5v5, PP, PK).

Can anyone else see any better options?

On that note, is Hamonic now the best (and reasonably priced) UFA option available to replace Larsson not named Barrie? (Which is not a legit replacement for him) I don’t see Holland winning any trades trying to fill the void now that every GM out there knows that his hand has been forced.

JimmyV1965

Make a flipping trade. Signing Hyman will be a massive mistake. It will be the beginning of the end for Holland and usher in yet another GM and another cycle of cleaning up the mess left by the previous GM. WooHoo!!!

TheGreatBigMac

Hamonic’s qoc numbers against elites last year are bad, okay against middle and grit. He looks like 3LD, Barrie’s numbers are a lot better. There is probably a lot more to it but I’m doubtful Hamonic is the answer. Oddly Russell could be. Nurse & Russell out for end of game shut down situations could work for a season.

Of course that’s a stop gap and signing Barrie would be for term and make the longer term problem more complicated and difficult than it already is by requiring a trade. Likely we would end up going for a long while without a shut down RD hoping Bear, Bouchard of Samorukov can grow and cover some of that role.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheGreatBigMac
JOFA

Thank God. I was worried Kenny was going to walk away. He needs to keep grinding to get that 8th year.

defmn

With UFA’a the player gets to do all the grinding.

JOFA

No way. This is all Kenny. Have more faith😉

The Trade Guy

I don’t understand do we really need to add yet another year to Hyman’s eventual buyout? Do we really need to send out picks to do it? Does Katz hate money? Does he hate his stupid hockey team? I mean that last point I can agree with.

Crazy Pedestrian

Obviously the Kraken roster isn’t finished, (that forward group is ugly), but man that defence looks mean. It’s almost like they selected the biggest/meanest/dirtiest d-men they could that can box out a divisional team with a generational player…

Last edited 1 month ago by Crazy Pedestrian
innercitysmytty

They’re following the Montreal model. I think they’re misjudging things based on one playoff run. With gaming changes and new TV deals I still think a puck possession D like the Avs will fare better moving forward. If that happens the Oilers will be in decent shape with Broberg, Bear and Bouchard (provided Ken doesn’t trade all three in the next month).

Rich M

The Montreal model is also what Dallas used the year before to get to the cup final before losing to Tampa. Big d-men/clog the neutral zone, back check and trap like crazy. It’s not a one year thing. It’s also what St. Louis did the year prior.

The Trade Guy

They’re also money when refs decide to not call penalties anymore.

leadfarmer

But then couldn’t make playoffs soon after

Diablo

The Kraken’s roster looks like a dog’s breakfast – they reportedly made all of those selections without any side deals. Yuk. Much ado about nothing if that’s the best that their vaunted analytics department can come up with. Every single mock draft online picked a better roster. Even the Flames and Canucks will have their way them. They may have tons of cap space, but there are only so many free agents worth spending that cap space on, and there are other teams that also have the cap space needed to compete for the premier UFAs that are worth overpaying for.

Good luck Adam, you’re going to be using that one dimension of yours … a lot. I woke up this morning feeling bad that we lost you, but now I just feel bad for you, getting less money and term than Oleksiak, a guy who up until the last 1 or 2 years, was at best a replacement level bottom pairing D-man.

But Seattle’s a nice city with a great climate and a terrific downtown that’s very dog friendly.

Harpers Hair
defmn

Just finished reading it.

He’s not wrong. We will hate the term.

He’s not wrong that UFA signings are always over pays.

He’s not wrong that people are tired of waiting to win.

Holland is making his moves.

Everybody wants Hamilton, Landskog, Hall etc. The problem is that they apparently don’t want Edmonton.

dustrock

So let’s sign Weiss and Legwand to forever contracts!!

Diablo

Don’t disagree with anything Spector wrote.

I think we love this team so much because it is so much harder to attract the top players – because of weather, urban appeal, taxes, melting pot fan base and now for just being based in Canada – there are just so many obstacles.

Yes we have Connor, Leon and Darnell – but that doesn’t change any of the above, and clearly doesn’t balance the ledger enough for a lot of UFAs (see Larsson, Adam).

I like the player (Hyman) … the term sucks, but that’s the price we have to pay to get him. Right now Hyman pushes the river.

The next 4 years are all that matters … if they don’t win the cup by then, Leon is gone, followed by Connor the year after. It’s time to go all-in … get the best players possible to help them win now. Figure the rest out 5 years from now. Hyman can help them win now.

It’s a gamble, but that’s life … if they win a Cup, it will be worth it. If they don’t achieve glory, then it won’t matter.

Bling

Holland has to just say no to Hyman.

As OP said, Holloway is going to be able to do that job in two seasons, and maybe even do it better than Hyman does it now. Huge risk to be taking on.

You have cap space. Lots of good players are available. Wait for UFA, and as knight town has said in the past, wait into August if you have to. Good players will shake loose.

Diablo

Agree with you on Holloway, though as our host likes to say “prospects don’t develop in straight lines”.

Hyman in right-handed though, so if Holloway does pop, then Hyman can shift to the RW and push Yamamoto down to the third line.

The term is gross, but the most important part of the contract is the next 4 years during which time if the Oilers don’t win a Cup, then one or both of McDavid/Draisaitl will leave. If they win, then it’ll be much easier to resign them as the top players usually want to cement their legacies on one team (much like Sid and Malkin have). After that they can deal with the fallout from the Hyman contract.

innercitysmytty

Nuge can also move back to C when Holloway is ready.

McSorley33

This is noble.

Yet, you know in your heart what Kenny is going to do here.

I think that we can make the call on our GM…..

€√¥£€^$

So, it is just speculation, but the Oilers don’t have much in the way of picks. Is our GM about to do something like trade the 1st for Toronto’s 2021 2nd for Hyman’s rights?

Prior to 2016, most of the most costly of these exchanges involved a 3rd round pick or a combo of lower picks and player’s rights. The lone exception was a 1st and 2nd paid by Colorado for Semyon Varlamov in 2011. Varlamov was a 23 year old 1st rounder who had just posted a season with Driedger-like numbers from 20-21. Bear in mind that Driedger has played a total of 38 NHL games over the past 7 seasons. Driedger is 27 yrs old.

TML only has a 2nd a 5th and a 6th this season and a 1st, a 2nd and a 7th in 2022.

Say it isn’t so that if he trades the 1st, Holland doesn’t get anything back but Hyman rights.

8 years x $5,000,000? It can’t possibly more than that, can it? What is palatable?

A knot is slowly growing in the pit of my stomach and I can almost taste the bile….if Holland expends a 1st or 2nd just for Hyman’s rights it will confirm that he has Chiarelli-level competence.

TheGreatBigMac

Common man get a hold of yourself, Holland is not trading a first for Hyman signing rights. Hopefully a sixth since we have two, something like that.

€√¥£€^$

I hope so

Bling

Larsson played well for the Oilers and I wish him the best.

I do not believe that this is catastrophic, and I’ve said before I believe strongly that Bear is top 4 ready and Bouchard will be top 4 next season. Larsson was very good defensively but not so good in other areas. It has always been what you create minus what you give up. Larsson’s game will always run a fine line; a decline in his defending ability will have a staggering effect on his value. I maintain that there were some cracks last season.

Bouchard/Bear will not be as good as Larsson defensively, but perhaps they can create more on the transition and in the offensive zone.

I do believe that there is a clear path to a roster spot for Samorukov given his unique skill set. I am all for that. It’s an interesting time, because OP has long dubbed him Larsson’s heir apparent and the time has arrived. Certainly he won’t play a top 4 role to start, but I suspect he wins a job out of training camp as the bottom pairing LHD.

Let’s see what Holland does with the cap space. Lots of ways to make this team better, and the most important part will be remaking the bottom six. As far as the D goes, the roster may yet be better off with either a high end option (Hamilton) or a cheaper version of Larsson playing on the third pairing (i.e. Hamonic).

defmn

With you all the way on Samorukov.

GordieHoweHatTrick

So sign Hamonic for 3RD and move Bouchard straight to 2RD??

Sierra

Sounds like that is what he’s saying. Bear 1RD Bouchard 2RD. Risky.

jp

Risky? Jesus.

ArmchairGM

Hamonic played 2nd pairing last year in a much tougher division. He had a terrible PDO vs Elites, partly due to playing with Hughes who defends half-heartedly and only when he feels like it.

This is interesting: http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=VAN&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-19&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480800&p2=8474612&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

Check out the zones starts with Hughes and without, and also Hughes’ GA/60 with and without Hamonic.

godot10

The music is breaking…the music is broken.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BupOkSSSpzw

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Pick your favourite off-season haul. If there is one thing the Oilers do better than trades it is free-agent signings:

2011: Hordichuk, Eager, Potter, Barker, and Belanger

2014: Pouliot, Fayne, and Nikitin

2016: Lucic, Reinhart, Gustavsson, and Kris Russell

2021: Hyman, Smith, and Keith

defmn

The reward for bad drafting and incompetent management.

jtblack

Hyman in town? 8 years?

Kenny has never overpaid an aging vet. This would be a first. 🤓

rickithebear

Look at the # of goals allowed In.
The 4 wins of the last 3 yrs of final 4 series.
it has not been about a teams offence.

it has been about defending “Rickisbox” (Lowetide), “Homeplate” (MSM),
“High density shot success area” = “True DZone” (ME)
-2 type of elite Dmen (low% penetration) & (high% 0% Corsi = Blocks + misses + closed shots) not abandoning their def side for offence
-Elite open shot save% goalies.
currently our Dmen suck on a historic level.

leadfarmer

While we could have really used Larsson especially given this roster makeup and his skill set. I don’t blame him for leaving especially after all the crap he got for being traded for Hall as if it was his choice. But I think we can agree that his tenure here has been uneven at best and this was probably his best season, Which is not unheard of for soon to be UFA. LT will tell stories to another generation of him patrolling the blue line facing anopponent with a twinkle of a goal in his eye before steering them into the boards extinguishing that light and robbing them blind.
but at the same time some of his passing was quite terrible.
4×4 was probably ok for last season Larsson but not ok for most season we had Larsson.
Wish him well but you could find a guy to clear out a crease for cheaper

LoDog

Yes and I think if anything the oleksiak contract might have made him stay. That would be a worse outcome.

Last edited 1 month ago by LoDog
OriginalPouzar

I would agree that he has been up and down as an Oiler. Yes, this season was his best but, to me, it equates to his first season with the Oilers and the last 3 months of 2020 after he settled in back from injury – he was just as good in those periods.

Really, his struggles seem to coincide with his back issue a few years back and the death of his father – he struggled that season and then most of the next – other than that, he’s been what he saw this year and I would anticipate that’s the Larsson the Kraken will have the next few years – although playing top pairing without much cover on an offensively challenged team may be an issue.

Reja

Adam had a bit of offensive creativity in him but he was very rarely given the green light.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think Larsson’s lack of production had anything to do with light colors. Some deployment effects, for sure, but I don’t thin the “reigns were put on”.

Diablo

He would occasional flash some of the skill that made the scouts overrate him in his draft year. But his game never developed in the o-zone. He is what he is at this point.

OriginalPouzar

8 years of Hyman makes no sense unless the AAV is $4M or under – it has to be an AAV that makes sense on the 3rd line as he will be passed by Holloway within 2 years.

Harpers Hair

There is ZERO chance he signs for $4M.

If he would Toronto would have kept him.

OriginalPouzar

I never said he’d sign that – I’m opining on what should be acceptable.

Kraz

If he was looking for that he would of stayed in Toronto. This will be pretty similar to the Nuge contract

OriginalPouzar

Of course, Nuge is vastly superior, younger and likely to regress more gracefully…..

Bling

Hey OP! Weren’t you saying I was being too aggressive with Oiler prospects the other day?

Larsson leaves and suddenly it’s bombs away. I agree with you, I’m just saying 🙂

OriginalPouzar

I was but, in that post to you, Holloway was the main exception – talked about his very high floor, etc.

Bling

I remain bullish on several of those guys. And I’m happy that Benson is still an Oiler.

OriginalPouzar

I remain individually bullish on every player you mentioned as well – it just seems a bit much for them all to pan out at their ceilings, or near thereto.

LoDog

I didnt dowvote you but thats a poor take lol.
Nuge or less is gravy.

Ryan

Look at the bright side.

Maybe if we sign Zach Hymen, his dad can chip in some money for functional analytics department.

OriginalPouzar

Of his uncle who, unfortunately, I have to deal with on way too frequent a basis these days in my career. It seems, as successful as his uncle is, he’s the black sheep considering his nephew (Zack) and brother.

Reja

It feels like Holland is panicking after the backlash he received for not retaining any money on the Keith fiasco. I feel sorry for the GM who has to replace him he won’t have any 2nd 3rd 4th picks until 2028.

defmn

UFA signings and making sense are not compatible ideas.

innercitysmytty

When Holloway is ready I would assume Nuge is moved back to C. Either way a lot can change in the 2-3 years it will take for Holloway to pass one or both of Hyman and Nuge. I don’t like the idea of going long on Hyman or any LW either but a lot can change in 2-3 years. Spec saying Hyman will get a similar deal to Nuge in both term and $$. That’s assinine based on production but it’s not surprising for a UFA that’s not currently on the team. With what has happened on D we better lock up Nurse long term asap.

misfit

Hyman in town is a good sign that we will have the remaining top 6 LW spot filled early in free agency. I worry for the cap hit and term but the player seems like a good fit.

He’s a right shot forward with grit and can score, and also fills the net-front/left side triggerman role on the PP.

He’s been playing with a pretty special player the last 3-4 years, so I wouldn’t expect too much of a “McDavid bump” production-wise. What is a 50-60 point 20 goal scorer worth in free agency?

He’d have been 3rd on my list for UFA LWs we might’ve had a shot at (Hall>Saad>Hyman if you’re curious), but they’re all good options. Of course, I’d rather go hard at Hamilton even if it means running Kahun or similar in the top 6 again.

leadfarmer

I think we’re gonna find out next season that WAR is very situational and doesn’t translate well

defmn

Do you mind expanding on that please.

Thanks.

leadfarmer

Wins above replacement. All the rage with the modelers. While one or two Ricki D will do well on a team roster specially when paired with a puck mover when you have a entire team of them they cancel out their positives and you find out you can’t move the puck
Aka the ferrence fayne nikitin Foster oilers

Harpers Hair

If you were willing to do the work you would find Seattle actually has at least 4 puck moving D in their current lineup.

Ryan

Credit to Vegas. They got that part right off the hop.

I remember Kelly Mccrimmon mentioning that they liked pairing a puck mover with a Ricki d… to the extent that they actually made use of Brad Hunt in their inaugural season.

defmn

I understand that. I wasn’t sure what in particular you were referring to but from HH’s response he seems to think you are talking about Seattle?

defmn

I understand that. I wasn’t sure what in particular you were referring to but from HH’s response he seems to think you are talking about Seattle?

Sorry for the slow response. I’m getting a lot of database error messages.

EDIT: Finally back in and see it double posted. Sorry about that.

Last edited 1 month ago by defmn
rickithebear

LT:
their is a way to measure def performance but It requires 2 combined theories.
A. Homepkate is the x,y location of puck rekaease on surface.
B. open/Closed is y,z plane of net elevation
wevpkay on a 3D surface x,y,z, not a 2D surface x.y.
less than 3D (non regression) ie. line & 2D (Binary) exclusion analytics is the silly stuff you see at universities.

I now refer to all data supported work of mine as White papers.
A. 2 papers Mid 90’s at NAIT:
-Predicting (Calked it) enviro affect of lobbying move from Glass to plastic.
-Germanys Closed cycle (0% pollution) end train (end of path) Fluidized bed (tray slurry distillation column) Kiln power plant fir all flammable Carbon, partnered with NA garbage sorting Centers that created inkind chemical structure flammable carbons to nteract with chemically design slurries.
B. the 50+ NHL related theories (Mow proofs)
C. Currently 5 completed medical & Bio Evo Psychological white papers that prove certain Academics are flat earth Science.

IQ test folly is a clear example:
Hi IQ (Low resolution test) non triarch Academics came up with theories (line string concept.)
Many grade 8-12 Boulean (high resolution) Tri Arch intelligence (Theory, Build, operate) High resolution individuals wear able transfer (Understand) that to working (build low fail), operatable ( get to) equipment to do things like:
-go to the moon, remote & Sub sensing Satelites, Start limited development of Magnetic guided. Unclear powered rockets in late 50s, etc.

My research is starting to suggest that Triarch intelligent is a Large brain grey matter function of Neanderthal DNA.

Sorry But I do not invest any further research into a game I have already solved.

So a quick look at viable minutes of functional minute Kraken Dmen based on VGK proven 30 yr championship roster core review.

DEF Dman (team): 20/21 Rank; 19/20 & 20/21 Rank
independent of comp, cause goal diff out come is most important Data variable of any player.
Soucy (MIN): #4 def dman; #3
Larsson (EDM) #20; #40
Oleksiak (DAL) #23, #12
Louzon (BOS) #60; #20
H. Fluery (ANA) #95, #78
V. Dunn (STL) #97, #43
Giordano (CGY) #101, #87 Sutter definitely made a diff in his Def gm.

That is 5 top 60 def Dmen deep with these teams since the lock out
6/7 Oilers, CHI, LAK, VGK.

Hey we do have
Russell: #15; #4 an elite 2nd comp anchor.
4 more to go to 5 deep.

I really hope their sake Mcd & Drai ask for trades.

My DAD:
“might be able to” is a direct path to failure.
”Consider all affects in situation” ( Space, NHL, NFL, Bio Evo)
”less than 100% success is unacceptable” ; see Space Shuttle

luckily My detroit lions have guys with things I can believe in.
Campbell, “ We want Atheletes who can, not Atheletes who might”
Campbell, “We build winning schemes to match our players strength”
Campbell, “Got coaches who make players better by teaching the mechanics.”
OC Lynn, DC GLenn, DL Walsh, OL, DB Pleasant
Holmes: You can turn around a reciever room quickly (Can)
Holmes looked for Players who have shown they “can” given a real chance.

Goff:
A. 9 QB: top 10 in TD/att (Score) & yd/att (move the ball) twice in the last 5 seasons:
Brady, Mahomes, Goff, Brees, Wilson, Stafford, Ryan, Cousins, Rivers.

B. Not a fan of media/ win measures but some orgs are.
+ 2 Pro bowl & 1 Championship (Conf, SB)
Brady, Mahomes, Goff.

Holmes to Goff in lions den EP 2, ”We got it done!”
Ie. We got you out of that mess!
My Video review showed Goff had the lowest true progression read time.
Pressure time – schemed back to play = true progression time.

WR group:
A. 11 WR were top 15: yards, TD, yds/rec ( Elite) 1 season of last 5
Top 5 in All: T. Hill 2018
Top 10 in all: Golladay 2019, D. Parker 2019, MJJ 2017
Top 15 in all: Tyrell Williams, C. Godwin, B. Cooks, Antonia Brown, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Ridley.

B. L ast 5 seasons, 5 WR had 3 qualified ssn of top 15 yd/rec.
T. Williams ( 4 top15 in 4Qual ssn)
B. Perriman (3/3)
Mike Williams (3/3)
J. Jones (3/5)
TY Hilton (3/5)

thatbis a GM.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Where can one read your whitepapers? Are they posted online or do I need to go to NAIT and dust off the microfiche?

leadfarmer

Official. Seattle had 0 side deals with the other teams. Looks like Francis got greedy.
which is too bad because the side deals is what made Vegas

Harpers Hair

Friedman saying it’s likely the signing of Hyman in Edmonton will be announced tomorrow.

That would mean an asset going to Toronto and likely an 8 year deal.

defmn

Sounds like. Not thrilled.

leadfarmer

Le sigh
I liked Patrick maroon in the Patrick Maroon role better
there Is no way that 8 year contract won’t need a buyout

McSorley33

Kenny gonna grind another draft pick away for the privilege of signing a UFA…..

I thought people were joking when they mentioned this …apparently not.

JOFA

I sure hope Kenny can get the 8th year tacked on to Hyman’s contract. Having to trade something to get it done is genius.

#kennysagrinder

Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) Tweeted:
#SeaKraken early, early lines: 

Jarnkrok-Gourde-Eberle
Tanev-McCann-Donskoi
Blackwell-Geekie-Appleton
Lind-True-Bastian
Pitlick/Twarnyski/Quenneville

Giordano-Oleksiak
Dunn-Larsson
Soucy-H.Fleury
Lauzon/Borgen/Cholowski/MacDermid/C.Fleury/Bayreuther

Driedger
Vanecek
Daccord

https://twitter.com/nhlupdate/status/1418023193185447944?s=20

Harpers Hair

Seattle sitting at about $50 million against the cap.

$31 million to improve the roster and of course some of those contracts on the current roster will be traded.

defmn

Or buried. Francis has just gotten started

Harpers Hair

Yep but don’t tell Leadfarmer.

He’s convinced himself this all over.

leadfarmer

Why would anyone play Appleton at wing???

Harpers Hair

Why would anyone play RNH at wing???

flyfish1168

Kraken D corp is huge and physical.

leadfarmer

Did Seattle not get a single protection side deal?
or have they announced nothing yet?
weird that nothing leaked when entire roster leaked

Lucinius

Don’t think they can announce them until tomorrow (1 pm EST, I think).

Lucinius

Or not. Some talk now (capfriendly, etc.) that there were no side deals. At all.

defmn

Friedman was just saying that Pitlick has been traded but not where.

Harpers Hair

Heard Philly and Calgary as potential destinations.

Lucinius

Huh. Looks like the Kraken are going to be keeping Gio. On stage with a jersey. Don’t do that if you’re going to flip him.

flyfish1168

Trade deadline deal

Lucinius

Not sure. There’s a decent chance they’re a playoff team heading into the deadline. The Pacific division is wide open. Vegas, Edmonton and Seattle are actually the top three in that division, imo.

Harpers Hair

Morgan Geekie (@M_14Geekie) Tweeted:
is now a bad time to tell everybody i have a Pizza Hut gold card

https://twitter.com/M_14Geekie/status/1418017593068249088?s=20

Harpers Hair

PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) Tweeted:
With the picks in so far, including the new contracts for the UFA selected, the #SeaKraken are up to $37M of Cap Hit ($44M of Cap Space) with 14 Active Contracts

https://t.co/xBSmQVoO4f

https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1418014385583267845?s=20

leadfarmer

Good, cause they are missing 4 top 6 forwards with an entire top line and two top pairing defensemen

McNuge93

They can still sign free agents, so could add acouple of top 6 forwards.

leadfarmer

Who is left?
Landeskog is probably a no
Hall is a no
maybe Saad but not a top 6 F anymore

Harpers Hair

Have you ever heard of trades?

They’re a thing.

And Saad is very much a top 6F.

LoDog

The more I think about it the more I think the cap will go up faster than expected.
Hyman @ 6×6 is maybe ok?
I’d bet Buchnevich gets about the same. Which would you rather have? Hyman only costs money. If its 8 years then 5 per.

leadfarmer

I would rather shop in the day 2 aisle

dessert1111

Hyman to an 8 year contract is scary bad. I would go up to maybe 5×4, sounds like that’s far from what he gets.

In what world would Hyman get more than Hall this off season? Aren’t they about the same age??

LoDog

I will prepare for further downvotes but at this stage I would take Hyman over Hall at 6×6. Both 29 with injury issues, maybe, but Hyman over the last 3 years looks better to me.
If the medical looks good it might not be the disaster many anticipate.

OriginalPouzar

I never wanted to re-sign Hall to a UFA contract – premise being paying big money for regression year – my new found desire to sign Hall has come from the potential of him signing for apx four years and the AAV coming WAY down.

I don’t want to sign him for 6 either.

Hall’s last few years are likely more productive if he was playing with Matthews and Marner as well……

LoDog

Hyman is around 27 goals per 82 the last three years with only 6 pp goals in that time. If healthy that gets you 6+.

leadfarmer

Is it just me or did the Kraken pick way too many Ricki D?
Gio is 38. So your mobile puck mover is Dunn?
gonna have a good pk and good GA but pp is gonna be Nashville good

leadfarmer

I mean we kind of did this Fayne Ferrence Fistric Nikitin

Side

I don’t know how many times I have read about the vaunted analytics team the Kraken assembled, who would build a D similar to other teams who have powerhouse analytics teams, only for them to grab Oleksiak, Larsson and Giordano..

Last edited 1 month ago by Side
Lucinius

There is some talk that Gio is a flip and will never play for the Kraken. Which, imo, is the only reason to take Gio. If they actually keep him it will be good for us.

leadfarmer

While Gio is done he is at least a different tool D then the rest

leadfarmer

I know some are really excited for this roster but this looks like something out of 2006

LoDog

The same Larrson largely derided as not worth 4×4 but then he gets it with the kraken and its all Holland is an idiot. Sign Barrie and trade Bear for Manson. Position improved.

defmn

Wait for the trades.

leadfarmer

What trades?

defmn

Wait for them.

Harpers Hair

That would be far too sensible.

Besides, everyone knows the Kraken need 12 NHL defensemen. 😀

David

Well Ricki did say that Vegas picked Rickibox D.

McSorley33

Yeah, but at least the Kraken trade *multiple* assets to get a 38 year old Dman…….

leadfarmer

the Real question shouldn’t be how much to pay Larsson but how cheap can you get his replacement
he’s a good player at his role but he is the definition of one tool D

leadfarmer

And yes almost 10 mil on Larsson and Oleksiak is ridiculous

leadfarmer

Yup Doms comments
Not many of his comparables make it to year 5

Harpers Hair

$8.6M is a lot less than $10M.

To come up with a comparable 2nd pairing the Oilers will have to sign a Larsson replacement for $3.1M

Good luck with that.

defmn

When Shannon asked Holland to defend his signing Keith he said the going rate for a second pairing dman is $4 to $4.5 M.

In free agency I think you always move to the top of the range or too many years or both.

That doesn’t defend the Keith trade imo but it does shed light on the going rate for 2D.

Harpers Hair

Yeah, I think thats pretty close so despite what we’ve heard here…the Larsson and Oleksiak signings are right in the range.

PokeCheck

Got to hand it to the NHL. It’s 2021 and I can’t even go to YouTube or NHL.com to watch an f-ing press conference.

Ben

Seattle, it’s time to FILL YOUR KRAKEN!!

godot10

My alternative strategy to the Manson one posted earlier is just to say eff it. Sign McIlrath and let the young guys roll.

Nurse Bear
Keith Bouchard
Broberg Samorukov
Russell McIlrath
Lagesson Berglund

Everytime I’ve seen Broberg live, I’ve come away believing the guy can play. Samorukov has been less impressive live, but he was really good in Russia.

The top six above are all alpha guys.

Broberg and Samorukov are both big and both can PK.

Broberg has two years in Europe compared to one for Heiskanen, and zero for Dahlen.

This is more me, than the other option I posted earlier.

Last edited 1 month ago by godot10
pts2pndr

I like your set up as it will give the young players a chance to get the experience they require. I believe that D should be good enough to make the playoffs in the division while allowing a upgrade in goal.

Reja

Tippett needs to be on the same page. Why didn’t they play Bouchard last year he could be the answer staring right at us pisses me off especially when they wouldn’t even play him at the end of the year.

defmn

I have great faith in Broberg, Samorukov & Bouchard. Not sure Tippett can handle 3 rookies though. 😉

But, yeah, I expect and hope to see all three of them at some point this season.

Harpers Hair

Woodguy (@Woodguy55) Tweeted:
SEA seems to be focused on RHD who are hard to play against and tough.

Most of the best NHL forwards are left shot C and LW.

Shut them down on RHD and have the puck mover on the LHD (lots of those)

Maximize shut down RHD is an interesting strategy and I think its a good one. https://t.co/ZUiHnrT0no

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1417985847719124994?s=20

Harpers Hair

Woodguy (@Woodguy55) Tweeted:
It’s been pointed out to me that Oleksiak and Soucy are LHD who play RHD.

I blame @Lowetide

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1417990676558479366?s=20

Reja

Francis who was very underrated who had skill coming out of his nose but was a grunt at the same time. He’s going to build a team that brings their lunch pails to work and I would throw some moolah on them making the playoffs.

Harpers Hair

Oleksiak 5X$4.6M

godot10

That is a bad contract. I believe in Penny. I am a non-believer in Jamie.

leadfarmer

That is awful.

dessert1111

I like Oleksiak but at first blush that seems like too much by a lot.

Is Oleksiak better than Larsson? I didn’t think he was, plus he’s RD, but maybe I’m wrong??

John Chambers

Zack Hyman will be an Oiler. It would be wise to come to terms with it.

He’ll be good for 3 or 4 years, long enough to get Draisaitl and McDavid to commit to new deals.

If he’s on a ticket worth $5.5M it can probably be traded / downsized / buried / bought out without too much disruption, especially since the cap should be $95M by the time it becomes a problem.

Strapping Jocks

If he’s in town, it is because he’s interested in signing with the team. So I agree, it’s time to come to grips with the fact he will be an Oiler. I just hope cap and term don’t handcuff the team.

David

The only way an eight year deal for Hyman isn’t absolutely horrible is if it is an AAV of 3.0 and not a penny more, and if it is very buyout friendly.

Even then it would be far too much term and still a bad deal. Please let Calgary swoop in and grab him out from under us like Markstrom last year.

Ozoil

Players like larsson don’t age well. A couple years ago people here wanted him gone. He had a good year leading up to his free agency season. He will be missed, but not for long. obviously this will depend on how Holland fills his spot. We have a lot of solid d coming up too. Bouchard will push his way into the top 4 pretty quick. If we signed Larsson for 4 years we’d be looking to off load him in two.

Ozoil

Maybe there is a connection between our bottom six not being able to score and the defense they are paired up with not being able to play offense

Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

Given all the great info from Nugent-Bowman in there, Larsson simply wanted to start fresh with a new team. There was really nothing more management could have done.

Side

If Larsson accepted more from the Oilers, I can see the reaction:

“Fucking Holland! Overpaid for yet another player!”

Larsson moves to Seattle for less

“Fucking Holland! Why did he let Larsson go! He obviously didn’t even try to get Larsson!”

defmn

I think that pretty much nails it.

Revolved

Although everyone is speculating as to why Larsson left, I haven’t often read the suggestion that Seattle is his best chance to win it all. Vegas went to the finals their first year, while the Oilers got swept in the first round last year. It’s not what we want to hear, but the Kraken will be balanced and deep out of the box and have a good chance to be better than our team next year. Blame Gary.

Bank Shot

Is Hamonic in at $1.5 really any different than Larsson at $4?

I feel like they both just offer steady and nothing else. Larsson at $4 seemed like to much to me for what the guy actually brings.

I’m more concerned about the 2 years for Smith rumor. Seems absurd to give a 40 year old a second year.

Oil2Oilers

How Old Dutch could pull the summer out of the fire for me;

Sign Hamilton ($8.5 x 7)
Trade Broberg for Debrusk (I think Samarukov is the better prospect)
Trade Kassian to Rangers to swap 1st picks to get Cossa

How Old Dutch could burn it to the ground for me;

Sign Hyman for 7 years
Trade Bear
Sign Smith to a multi year deal

Ryan

Hamilton isn’t coming here and that’s not on Holland.

Broberg for Debrusk would be an absolutely terrible trade.

PinkSocks

Yikes. Holland would have to be fully brain dead to sign Hamilton at $8.5m driving up his own cost of Nurse next summer. Broberg for Debrusk is also clinically insane.

Jaxon

I’m not so sure it would drive it up. I think Nurse is probably getting 7.5 minimum and possibly as high as 8 or 8.5. now if you sign Hamilton for 8.5 and this season he plays as much or more than Nurse, scores more points, and is as good defensively, then it might keep Nurse’s number below 8.5. if you can get Hamilton for less than 8.5, you definitely do it. There is a decent chance he outplays Nurse.

OriginalPouzar

By Broberg do you mean Niemalainen?

I may agree that Sammy is the better prospect but, at his contract, DeBrusk has zero value, maybe even negative value.

Reja

They are not trading Broberg he’s Holland’s golden boy.

OriginalPouzar

Truth be told, Holland has spoken more glowingly about Bouchard since he became Oiler GM.

Reja

If Holland has no control of Tippett’s deployment were in big trouble. Maybe Holland’s pulling a Brad Pitt moneyball move and getting rid of all the RD so Tippett is forced to finally play Bouchard

Turning Tikkanese

Swapping with rangers probably doesn’t get a better chance at Cossa. If the mock drafts are close to reality, half of them have wallsted and Cossa both gone by pick 11.

Jaxon

Write a few prominent mocks have Cossa at 19.

Magnus

I see all three happening, but with Hyman getting 8 years.

€√¥£€^$

What is the DeBrusk fascination anyway? He reminds me of Athanasiou. A lower-end 1 dimensional player, more expensive than and as inconsistent as AA.

Frankly I would rather have Hoffman, even though I am not a fan of the player, but he’d be cheaper and a more effective 1 dimensional offensive winger.

Broberg is the future.

Ben

Your daily reminder that, like Nuge before him, Zach Hyman has never cracked 50 points.

Chris Johnston @reporterchris
With Zach Hyman in Edmonton visiting the #oilers today, as @JasonGregor reported, there remains a possibility of a sign-and-trade scenario with the #leafs that could get him a max eight-year term.

dustrock

hoo boy ha ha ha

LMHF#1

This is somehow getting worse before it gets better.

Amazing.

Defeat from the jaws of victory. Rinse and repeat.

Rebillled

I have a bad feeling Hyman will be our next Dylan Strome.

dustrock

Clarkson?

McNuge93

Van Reimsdyck

Scungilli Slushy

Speaking of him, I’ve been wondering if Kassian plus way too much for Strome is the smoke from the fire rumored about. RC and against his will I’m sure can be the needed 3C.

Ben

Kassian+ for Georgiev? Kassian++ for Buchnevich? Kassian 1/2 ret for Gauthier?

Lucinius

Ugh. I really hope we don’t go in on Hyman. He’s way over-valued on the market and that’s the kind of deal that will hamper the Oilers for a long time — and we already have enough of those.

I have to admit.. Holland has turned out worse than I had expected, and between the second year on Smith and the (likely, imo) signing of Hyman for way more than is reasonable for way longer than is smart… it only gets worse.

Reja

Holland has never really had the heat on him he walked into a damn fine team in Detroit HockeyTown is in Detroit but let’s face It Edmonton is under a microscope. I wanted Keith Gretzky I would guess he’s taking over for Holland in 3 seasons

Mesmer

3 seasons?? I am hoping 3 days max. I have seen enough already and want Holland out. He just fails to recognize the value of cap space and how how to also benefit from the lack of it in a trading partner. Other GM’s are eating his lunch right now. The proof is in the results.

Enough.

LMHF#1

Not near enough of it to warrant a big UFA deal.

This is David Clarkson territory all over again. GMs get suckered into this sort of player all the time. It never ends well.

Jethro Tull

It points, once again, to fundamental flaws in team and player assessment. They simply value different things from us.

Poll 31 other NHL GMs “what do you believe your team needs to win a Cup” and altough you will get differing answers, none of them would be as bat-shit crazy as:

Duncan Keith
Zach Hyman
Boot out Larsson and Jones
Mike Smith
Get rid of your picks and cap space.

Poll MLB GMs since Billy Bean “what wins championships”, they’ll say, “I sure like the guy, he has guts and grit and leadership. But he can’t play baseball. I want guys that can play baseball.”

McNuge93

Yes, but rumored 6 x$6 is too much of both.

Minister D-

Wouldn’t this also mean that the Oilers would have to give up some kind of compensation to TLM if Hyman signs? If so, that’s yet another unforced error: it’s the Oilers way.

OriginalPouzar

Yup, technically the Leafs would sign Hyman (for the 8th year) and then trade him to the Oilers for a return.

Nothing like paying to get an 8th year for a 29 year od “power forward” coming off two major knee injuries (including an ACL surgery)

Ryan

Wow a sign and trade would be terrible on two fronts. 1) 8 years of Zach Hyman. 2) giving up assets to sign him. I like Zach, but he’s already 29.

LoDog

I dont like it but what if the 8 years gets the number to same as nuge?

OriginalPouzar

LoDog

 Reply to Ben

 July 21, 2021 4:51 pm

I dont like it but what if the 8 years gets the number to same as nuge?

Considering Nuge is a clear superior player, younger, without a very recent history of major knee issues, is a 10-year Oiler and likely to regress more gracefully than Hyman, that would just be a terrible move (in my opinion).

jimdewger

Though Nuge does have some significant issues in his game, he has cracked 50 points 5 times. Hyman sure hasn’t though.

The Trade Guy

please stop this ride I want off.

Reja

Mactavish doesn’t seem so bad looking back. If he would of stayed the course and didn’t panic and hire Eakins we would of been a successful playoff team. We are 1W 7L under the Holland regime.

€√¥£€^$

Yuck.

6 years max.