Draft 2021: Moonlight Mile

by Lowetide

Kevin Prendergast said a couple of decades ago that the scouts needed to score in the first round without fail, and needed to find at least one more NHL player in the other rounds. His nine first-round picks brought five successes (Ales Hemsky, Devan Dubnyk, Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, Riley Nash), a little better than 50 percent success rate.

In his seven seasons as scouting director, Edmonton added Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Kyle Brodziak, Jeff Petry from outside the first round, along with Chris VandeVelde who had a fairly long run (278 games) as a depth player. Is the two players per draft rule a good one? It depends in part on how many draft picks are available in a draft.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

LOWETIDE VERSUS BOB MCKENZIE 2021

McKenzie’s list, which is compiled after input from real live NHL scouts (they wander in the wild, but McKenzie takes treats and they know him), brings about the same list as Craig Button (who we looked at some time ago).

Where does that leave my list? Off off Broadway, as you can see. Things go in wildly different directions after the top-10 overall and I expect we’ll see some off-roading at the actual NHL draft on Friday night. Here’s a mock based on players who remain available on McKenzie’s list at the time of Edmonton’s selection (using the Lowetide list as the Oilers draft ranking).  My list is here.

LOWETIDE MOCK (MCKENZIE LIST)

  • No. 19 overall: LC Nikita Chibrikov, St. Petersburg. Smaller forward with high-end skill (Red Line has him No. 22), RLR says he has “a combination of great stick skills, imagination, vision, speed and offensive instincts.” He’s a one-dimensional player but will be the best offensive prospect on the board if still available at No. 19 overall. I had him at No. 7.
  • No. 116 overall: LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors 6.01, 196. I have him No. 24 (RLR has him early third round) and Mr. McKenzie doesn’t list him. I’ve checked, speed is good and he has all the PF tools including skill. I don’t know where he’ll go in the draft, but Alarie is a good prospect.
  • No. 180 overall: LC Joshua Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix 6.01, 191. I have him No. 36 overall, RLR has him late third round. An August 2003, he barely qualifies for the draft. Lethal shooter, average foot speed, he landed just outside my first round due to 22 goals in 35 QMJHL games.
  • No. 186 overall: RC Connor Lockhart, Erie Otters. I have him at No. 41, RLR ranks him late third round. Fine playmaker, he is undersized and will need to improve strength. Has a great release on his shot.
  • No. 212 overall: LC Lorenzo Canonica, Shawinigan Cataractes. I had him No. 51, meaning all five of my picks are done with players I ranked in the first through middle second round. What a crazy year. I was finished my Button draft by selection No. 32 of my list, so things are looking up! A September 2003, great skill. RLR has him fifth round.

LOWETIDE VS CRAIG BUTTON

  • No. 19 overall: LC Nikita Chibrikov, St. Petersburg
  • No. 116 overall: RW Olivier Nadeau, Shawinigan Cataractes 
  • No. 180 overall: LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors 6.01, 196. B
  • No. 186 overall: RC Ryder Korczak, Moose Jaw Warriors 
  • No. 212 overall: LW Conner Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds 

I swear my list had defensemen and goalies. I fully expect Edmonton to draft at least one defenseman, but if Cossa isn’t there Edmonton may not add a guardian this summer.

50-MAN FINAL RIDE (40)

There are 40 names here, but seven are restricted free agents (not all will be signed) and there are rumours surrounding several players (Koskinen, Neal, Kassian) possibly heading out of town. Plus someone will be lost to expansion. I see a need for a McDavid LW, a No. 3 center, Adam Larsson and one, possible two goalies. Does Ken Holland have enough money to get quality in all spots? Can he find a home for Koskinen? Neal? We wait.

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER

I’m not going to publish one today, would like to talk about expectations. Currently, Edmonton has $11 million in cap space, and that will grow to almost $24 million with a James Neal buyout, a Mikko Koskinen trade ($2 million retained), Kyle Turris in Bakersfield and Oscar Klefbom on LTIR.

The last few rosters I’ve published have been met with something that borders on rage. I mentioned some time ago that Seattle was dropping $80 million into the free-agent pool. In real terms, that could take Adam Larsson from $4 million times four years for $4.5 million times five years. As much as I am a fan of this player, there has to be an outer marker where the risk becomes too great. I hope he signs in Edmonton, but it sounds like he’ll take a bigger piece of the pie if he does return. That impacts the rest of the roster.

The size of the Goodrow contract is an early distant warning signal. Holland’s $24 million isn’t going to get him all the way to balance. That’s good news for Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov and Ilya Konovalov.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have great guests and fun times. Paul Sir from The Basketball Show joins us at 10:20 to talk NBA finals, and why the league’s schedule for the final is so inconsistent. At 11:20, Jared Brown, Draft Pro Hockey’s head scout will talk to us about the 2021 NHL draft and players who might make sense for the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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Fiveinatrailer

Sorry I’m just catching up so please dumb it down for me (before LT makes a new post!)

Larsson signed in SEA is our expansion roster loss?

what about the 500 posts lamenting the Benson loss…?

For reals though, this team needs to go after a legit RD (Hamilton or bust- where have we heard that before…hmm. Probably just acquire another Reinhart instead (Sam)…)

I am more comfortable with Hammy, Bear and Bouch as our RD anyway moving forward.

now about those goalies…

McSorley33

It can’t be Tyson Barrie…..I am going to reserve judgment on letting Larsson walk for
what looks to be a reasonable about of money. We gave Russell this term and money.

Who is going to PK?

Kert

“Letting Larsson walk” might not be the right way to look at it. He wanted to leave and did. “Letting” implies control that the Oiler’s didn’t have.

McSorley33

You can hear the PR campaign ( Adam was a core part of the leadership ) ….pivot.

McSorley33

I guess Adam was not part of the leadership group?

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

IMHO this is a function of Klef hanging up the skates for good. No way Lars leaves if Klef is still playing. But good for Lars, SEA is a big upgrade in terms of quality of life.

Wonder how the supposed crack-down on cross-checking will effect his game. Cross-checking is literally half of what he does in the defensive zone.

Sail on Lars and thanks for the time.

PinkSocks

Seattle is a big upgrade in terms of quality of life?

Reja

They do have a second to none tent city. I think it matters more to a players wife where a player plays.

PinkSocks

Adam Larsson was always a favorite of mine going back to his junior days and I always cheered like hell for him. That being said, if UFA Larsson is the player we lose to Seattle, the Oilers win the expansion draft.

Spartacus

Taylor Hall turned into nothing.

Sweet asset mangement, Dutch.

Way to earn that $5 million.

jp

The real Taylor Hall is also a nothing (UFA) at this point.

OriginalPouzar

There is no sane way to make that analysis – in my opinion.

The Oilers got 5 years of service from Adam Larsson.

PinkSocks

So KH needs to overpay to sign a UFA who will be selected by Seattle in the expansion draft in order to manage his assets properly for a bad trade that happened 5 years ago under a different GM? Okay then.

OriginalPouzar

This is unsettling news on Larson. Not good, not good at all.

Barrie is not a Larsson replacement for me. Even at the same contract, I take Larsson over Barrie due to roster construction.

David Savard is what many fear Larsson will. bein 2-3 years – no thank you.

Aside from a trade, its Dougie Hamilton, which I don’t think is realistic.

Josh Manson is probably available.

Issue with losing Larsson and trading to replace him is the assets out in the transaction in aggregate.

Maybe Holland should see if Bowman is willing to move Caleb Jones – Oilers could use him as a carrot for Seth.

leadfarmer

We know its gonna be Barrie.
Now how fast can Bouchard learn to kill penalties

OriginalPouzar

I guess there is Risto – he’s “been traded” for 5 straight off-seasons now.

leadfarmer

David Savard outside of a very short low cap stopgap is a big no for me

Shane

Throw the bank at Dougie Hamilton!

Last edited 2 months ago by Shane
Chelios is a Dinosaur

I don’t understand.

Can they go all in for Dougie Hamilton now?

Will this team make moves to become better?

Bueller?

leadfarmer

Larsson 4 year 4mil per to Seattle
well hmmm

Todd Macallan

Rishaug says Oilers had 4 and 5 yr offers, seems like they weren’t outbid and Larsson wanted a change of scenery

leadfarmer

Jamie Oleksiak and Larsson are two single tool D men.
So far looks like Ricki d corp

Todd Macallan

Those two plus Giordano makes for the slowest d corps in the league unless the other 3 they get are all Cale Makar.

TheGreatBigMac

I’m suddenly curious how Kesselring and Kemp were doing last season

misfit

Sucks that he didn’t re-sign with us, but if he was going to sign with another team, having him do so with Seattle before the expansion draft is about as best case as you can get.

ArmchairGM
DevilsLettuce

Larsson was infact not part of leadership.

McDavid and Leon are going to feast on this man.

Coiler

The guy wore an “A”. I don’t think they just hand those letters out like candy. I believe he was a part of the team’s leadership and they will miss him.

DevilsLettuce

He did wear an A, he also took a offer in a different town that if we know anything about Ken Holland, Ken also gave him that offer, and Larsson being the team player, wanted the Oilers to pay up even more just after he watch Nuge take below market.

Not really what leadership does, if he’s part of the leadership he signs that contract with the Oilers imo.

Coiler

But you don’t know that KH offered him the same. Assuming doesn’t make it so.

Either way, the only point I was making was that he was a part of the leadership group. Assuming that he if he was a team player that he should just sign any contract thrown his way by Edmonton is not the way free agency in today’s world works.

McSorley33

Kenny’s got this.

McSorley33

Wow.

Bulging Twine

Adam, we traded for Duncan Keith, he’ll be your D partner this season!!

Adam leaves

Todd Macallan

Will miss him but hope he enjoys getting wrecked by McDrai the next 4 yrs

Fiveinatrailer

Lol. Well done

€√¥£€^$

I wanted to see what it would look like to add Hamilton, Landeskog and Hyman. It is tight, but doable. The Landeskog deal is $50 million total, so I thought it was an enticing figure. Plus, many more Swedes to help Broberg acclimatize.

I traded Kassian for picks, traded Russell + 2002 1st for Garland, Bear + Archibald for Michael McLeod + 2 3rds (I had to do this to fit in Hamilton) so here’s what I came up with:

CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster

FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Jesse Puljujärvi ($1,175,000) – Conor Garland ($3,250,000) – Kailer Yamamoto ($1,250,000) – Michael Mcleod ($487,500)
Centre: Connor McDavid ($12,500,000) – Leon Draisaitl ($8,500,000) – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,125,000) – Ryan McLeod ($834,167)
Left wing: Zach Hyman ($5,750,000) – Gabriel Landeskog ($7,142,857) – Jordan Martinook ($875,000) – Tyler Benson ($750,000)

DEFENSE (6)
Right: Dougie Hamilton ($7,750,000) – Travis Hamonic ($2,000,000) – Evan Bouchard ($863,333)
Left: Darnell Nurse ($5,600,000) – Duncan Keith ($5,538,462) – Alexander Edler ($1,000,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
Linus Ullmark ($3,250,000) – Frederik Andersen ($2,500,000)

AHL BURIED (1)

Kyle Turris ($525,000)

BUYOUTS (3)
Andrej Sekera ($1,500,000) – James Neal ($1,916,667) – Mikko Koskinen ($1,500,000)

RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Milan Lucic ($750,000)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Bonus Overages: $669,339
Cap Hit: $85,577,325
Cap Space: -$4,077,325 – This is covered by Klefbom’s LTIR.

Lines are:

Hyman-CMD-JP
Landeskog-Drai-Garland
Martinook-Nuge-Yamo
Benson-R McLeod-M McLeod

Nurse-Hamilton
Keith-Hamonic (2 yrs)
Edler (1 yr) -Bouchard

ArmchairGM

Looks great, but you have a bunch of people on discounts, which I don’t think is realistic. And how did you acquire McLeod and Garland? By emptying out the prospect cupboard?

€√¥£€^$

Garland for Russell + 2022 1st, McLeod for Bear + Archibald

Turning Tikkanese

Throwing an idea at the wall to see if it sticks…

How invested is the Edmonton brain trust in getting one of the goalies in the draft? After perusing several mock drafts of varying quality, half them had Cossa falling to Edmonton. The rest had high odds that Chicago at #12 or Ottawa at #10 (no #11 re Arizona), being highly likely to grab one of the two top goalies, with Columbus, Detroit and LA also possibly in the mix for the other.

That means if one of the goalies is a hard target, we would have to trade up before Ottawa at #10 to ensure we get one of the two. Trading up to #13-#19 doesn’t increase our odds at all.

What would Ottawa want to swap #10 for #20?
What would Vancouver want to swap #9 FOR #20?
What would LA want to swap #8 for #20?
What would San Jose want to swap #7 for #20?
What would Detroit want to swap #6 for # 20?

Probably far too expensive a maneuver, but I am curious what their needs are and if a deal could be worked?

Hmmm….

Harpers Hair

Vancouver needs an impact top 6 winger or a top 4 D.

Since they will be getting that winger at #9 you would have to knock their socks off.

Harpers Hair

San Jose needs everything but you would likely have to send them a couple of very good prospects to get them to bite.

Harpers Hair

No one can read Yzerman’s mind.

What would you offers for #6?

Turning Tikkanese

I’m sure the price would be very high. I only went as far as Detroit at #6 as they have two first round picks, which might sway them to trade down for the right offer…

Turning Tikkanese

Marody/Benson perhaps?Two thirds of a star AHL line… 😉

Turning Tikkanese

oops posted this twice. proper location in the discussion is further up the list!

Turning Tikkanese

Should have read Marody and Benson to San Jose…

Turning Tikkanese

Marody/Benson perhaps? Two thirds of a star AHL line… 😉

Harpers Hair

I’m pretty sure they have a few AHL players on the big team already.

Harpers Hair

LA needs a high end D prospect.

The Oilers would likely have to offer Bouchard.

Harpers Hair

Ottawa is awash in prospects so would likely want a good roster player.

Yamamoto?

Turning Tikkanese

So… if Ottawa was asking for Yamamoto, would you do the deal and go shopping for another winger in FA day 2+?

Harpers Hair

The problem with that strategy is Ottawa could just keep the pick and use their $28 million in cap space to go shopping as well.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not so sure Hall, Landeskog, Hamilton, Saad, etc. are lining up to head to Ottawa and I’m not so sure Melnyk is lining up to over-pay them.

Harpers Hair

No one suggested those players so I have no idea why you brought them up.

A Yamamoto level player wouldn’t be very expensive.

Turning Tikkanese

I suspected the price to jump 10+ spots in the first round could be prohibitive. but thought this would be an interesting thought experiment. Any one else with thoughts on this? Takes our mind off of the expansion draft…

Harpers Hair
Harpers Hair

I would imagine a top line of Landeskog-Gourde-Tarasenko could do some damage.

They could call it the 29 Line.

OriginalPouzar

Could be a good line – of course:

1) Landeskog likely not as productive without the two elite drivers that he complimented

2) The TBL has of riches haveing Gourde at 3C – I have little doubt Goude can give more than he was asked to as a 3C but moving up to 1C, those matchups are going to be ALOT tougher

Harpers Hair

He was effectively #2C in the playoffs.

Considering that Seattle looks to have a very strong bottom 6 based on draft projections, I would imagine they can build a substantial shutdown line to take on the toughs.

OriginalPouzar

He played almost exclusively with Coleman and Goodrow – he was the 3C. In any event, he certainly wasn’t playing against the opposition’s top shutdown players like he would be as a 1C.

Harpers Hair

He was second in TOI among Tampa centres in the playoffs behind Point.

He, Landeskog, and Tarasenko have been playing the tough for years…not a factor at all.

OriginalPouzar

He played on a line with Goodrow and Coleman, almost exclusively – they did NOT face the opposition’s top defenders and top shut down players which is exactly what he would do if he was the 1C, something he has never been. Point and Stamkos faced the opposition’s best shut down player.

Landeskog have been playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen – if one doesn’t expect a drop off playing with Gourde, well, I can’t really help.

Harpers Hair

No you can’t.

Point and Stamkos rarely played together as reflected in the TOI.

Point led all forwards at 18:55

Stamkos was 9th at 15:52

(Gourde was 3rd at 17:36)

And that’s with lots of PP minutes for Stamkos who had 5G and 12P on the PP while Gourde scored all his points at evens.

No one is suggesting there might not be a drop off for Landeskog but, as stated, that line with a healthy Tarasenko would be lethal and Landeskog and Gourde are exceptional defensive players.

Note Gourde’s numbers are stellar across the board and also that he started the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8476826

OriginalPouzar

Point and Stamkos rarely played together because they were the top 2 centers – they would have faced the opposition’s best in terms of shutting down. Gourde was the 3C, playing with two 3rd liners – he would not have faced top shut down comp, which is what he’d face as a 1C in Seattle.

jp

Landeskog have been playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen – if one doesn’t expect a drop off playing with Gourde, well, I can’t really help.

Landeskog over the past 3 seasons has scored 1.95 5v5 P/60.

He scored 2.16 P/60 in 2137 minutes with MacKinnon.

He scored 1.23 P/60 in 633 minutes without MacKinnon.

Scungilli Slushy

IMO you have to be careful projecting players off of very good, very established teams. They aren’t necessarily going to elevate play, it usually seems to come down in a less polished environment to their actual talent level.

Gregor talked about Vegas on the bit of his show I caught, and the fellas that had those career years their first season haven’t kept those levels since. There really aren’t many diamonds in the rough. Not that they are bad now.

I see them going after Johansen and hoping he rebounds, RC not too old and big who has actually been a 1C.

Harpers Hair

Sportsnet PR (@SportsnetPR) Tweeted:
Congratulations to the incredible @CassieCampbell for winning the #CdnScreenAward for Best Sports Analyst https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/1f929.svghttps://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/1f38a.svg You’re a rockstar!

#CdnScreenAwards | #CdnScreenAwardWinner | @TheCdnAcademy https://t.co/pJQa06klDp

https://twitter.com/SportsnetPR/status/1417626369832456194?s=20

defmn

The mute button on my remote just became an even more essential part of my hockey viewing experience.

OriginalPouzar

Reja just had a stroke.

Harpers Hair

So did Ray Ferraro.

And Kevin Bieksa.

DevilsLettuce

Jennifer Botterill was so much better

Harpers Hair

I thought so too..but neither can hold a candle to Bieksa who is very knowledgeable while also being tremendously entertaining.

DevilsLettuce

Just assumed in today’s climate that whatever award Cassie is winning for her NHIC work isn’t going to be won on merit.

We should all enjoy Bieksa while we can before ESPN gives him a YouTube show with DC that’s about college football.

innercitysmytty

yeah he’s excellent

Victoria Oil

A thousand times yes!

Jethro Tull

“Here to present the award, last year’s winner and ESPN’s best hockey player, Drew Remenda and Patrick Kane.”

Randle McMurphy

OK Boys. On your toes, 24 hours and counting

Before Ron Francis walks to the microphone and announces…

“The Seattle Kraken select, from the Edmonton Oilers….

Forward… James Neal!”

Randle McMurphy

It would be interesting to see an in-depth comparison between Ethan Bear and Dylan DeMelo.

Similar playing style.

Randle McMurphy

Holland being Holland….Are the Oilers looking at Frederik Andersen?

innercitysmytty

Would you rather Smith at 2 x $2.5 million or Andersen at 1 x $4 million to rehab his value.

OriginalPouzar

Fredie A.

A multi-year 35 plus contract cannot be removed – no cap relief upon assignment to the AHL or retirement.

We should know ALOT more about Skinner and Konavalov in a year (and with Rodrigue getting a full season of real pro games).

innercitysmytty

Agreed – the only uncertainty about Andersen is the injury he had this year. If he’s 100% that’s easily the better option if he would take a 1 year contract. I suspect there are still teams that may pursue him for a 3 year deal or something though.

N64

~ Agent Smith may be ageless but I’ll go with young Neo ~ #teamredpill

Last edited 2 months ago by N64
Material Elvis

He’s only 32 when the season starts; he might be too young…

innercitysmytty

yeah exactly lol

Jordan

Maybe that’s a selling feature.

“Listen Ken, I know my clients is a little young for you and your organization, but the leafs have only been developing him for the last 5-10 years. Freddie and I are sure there’s still room for him to progress and grow. After all, we both know players don’t hit their peak performance until they’re 39, right?”

OriginalPouzar

I am not against the concept of Fredie A. – he is a good goalie.

Revolved

I’ve been tracking line stability at 5×5 across the NHL for a few years now and I posted this years numbers a few days ago. The Oilers have been consistently bad at keeping their lines together. To measure this, I just look at the percentage of time each team’s top two centres play with their top two line mates.

A couple of years ago, I compared the correlation between line stability and standings rank to other publicly available metrics and I thought I would do the same again this year. Here are the correlations (1 is a perfect positive correlation, -1 is a perfect negative correlation and 0 is no correlation) between standings rank and various metrics in 18-19 and 20-21:

Correlation with standings rank
Metric – 18-19 – 20-21
Line stability – 0.52 – 0.56
PP% – 0.28 – 0.57
PK% – 0.30 – 0.44
5×5 CF% – 0.67 – 0.55
5×5 SF% – 0.67 – 0.70
5×5 xGF% – 0.62 – 0.70
5×5 SCF% – 0.70 – 0.69
5×5 HDCF% – 0.50 – 0.61
5×5 GF% – 0.95 – 0.92

As I’ve said before, line stability is unique here because it not a results based metric. Coaches can use their players however they want, but good teams tend to keep their lines together. I’m sure there is both cause and effect mixed together here, but I think it shows the Oilers should make it a goal to keep their lines stable. 

If we can make three lines that can score, it would allow us to reduce the load on our stars. I think the quickest way for us to move up as contenders is if Tippett could bring himself to keep those lines together. Based on our protected list, I would base these on McDavid-Puljujarvi, Draisaitl-Yamamoto and RNH-Kassian.

Randle McMurphy

Thank you for your work.

Cause and effect seems large to me.

Weaker or less deep teams have no choice but to juggle their lines, whether in search of offense, or to get specific players going, or to attempt to line match against superior rosters, or to shelter weaker links, etc

Revolved

It’s just great to be part of a community of amateur researchers.

The thing is there’s no reason it needs to be like this. I’m guessing bad teams have a bit more roster turnover, but their coaches could just as easily decide on their favorite lines and play them. The Oilers are good, but consistently poor by this metric. I think the things that ultimately makes stability possible are balance, depth and good coaching.

Primetime

Great stuff. Agree with the premise of line stability.

That being said, I would be more inclined for:
McDavid-Kassian
Draisaitl-Yamamoto
RNH-JP

The reason being, I believe McDavid can score on his own, and the actual pair will be McDavid and free agent LW TBA. Also Jesse would bring more scoring punch to RNH and we may actually have 3 successful lines

Revolved

I can get behind those pairs as well. I’d be really interested to ask each of the centers what they care about more: which partners they get or how much time they get together. There have definitely been some calls for more stability from the players, but I wonder how much they’re willing to sacrifice quality of line mates for it.

OriginalPouzar

Zack lost his 1RW job based on his play early in 2020.

Zack was given a chance at 1RW for the bubble – failed and was demoted

Zack was given a chance at 1RW to start 2021 – failed and was demoted.

Zack was given a chance at 1RW later in the 2021 season – failed and was demoted.

Its tough to lock that in as a pair given the last season and a half.

Revolved

That did happen, and people often point to Kassian as inconsistent, but I remember the whole team was pretty apathetic to begin last season. Kassian and McDavid had 50%GF and around that for the other metrics last year, which is hardly failure. Given that he’s the one with a multi year contract, it might actually be the best arrangement. If Tippett would commit to it, I’d get behind it.

Scungilli Slushy

Awesome thanks.

Interesting that the GF% has the highest correlation. It makes sense to me as it is the hardest thing to do. Which to me means the more you play with linemates, the more you can read off each other and have a plan that evolves or is set to beat the D system and the goalie.

Old schoolers like Hitchcock and his disciples use the blender to try to force the players to play the system because they don’t have the familiarity.

How about just be a better coach with the players and the GM get better players instead!

Revolved

The correlations are to rank in the standings, so it does make sense. It shows very clearly which game state we should be focused on though. I think the disciplinarian coach is soon a thing of the past.

ArmchairGM

Great post – thanks for sharing!

OriginalPouzar

I’m not positive that Smith will be an Oiler next season and, if he is, I’m getting very nervous that the contract terms are going to be, well, not good.

I think he wants term – I’ve read it and heard it and it makes sense. Performance bonuses for 35 plus contracts can only be included for 1-year deals. If Smith gets term, it won’t have performance bonuses so his full comp will be his salary/signing bonus and included in the cap from day 1.

Given he is also looking for “starters’ money”, I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland signs this guy for 2 X $3.5M or something egregious like that.

With Vezina votes this past season, his play last year warrants that contract but age is a real thing and its a risky, risky, risky bet that I think Holland will meet.

godot10

The way to do it is to give respectable money on a one year deal. Or a lower AAV with easily attainable bonus money. But like starters money. $3 million + $3 million in easily attainable bonues, on a one year deal.

If 38-year olds don’t want to proceed on a year to year basis, the Oilers should move on.

Primetime

I agree that his performance last year warrants the salary ($3.5M) but Holland can not give in on term. If Smith doesn’t want the performance bonuses, it’s because even he knows his last year may not be repeatable! If Holland surveys the landscape and no other starting goalie will work for the upcoming year, you go ahead and offer the full contract on salary and no performance bonuses, cause you are banking on him hitting those bonuses anyway at that point. But for ONE YEAR ONLY. Do not give up term

The Trade Guy

Yeah if he isn’t down with that he can go to market and find his multi year deal. He’s at a point where he is going to be on one year deals.

Randle McMurphy

You mean something like LT predicted Holland paying Smith?

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure his desire for a term contract is Smith “not wanting performance bonuses” as much as its a function of stability and wanting to move his family to an area and be there for a while, etc.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Who are we competing against for his services? I can’t see anyone save Buffalo seeking his services as a starter on a one year deal let alone giving him multiple years. Smith was unexpectedly great last year, but he would have been out of hockey if the Oilers didn’t resign him last summer. At his age, one year deals are all you get or should expect, and I’m happy to have him back as long as he performs.

defmn

I believe I posted much the same thing a while back when the ‘multiple years’ rumour first appeared. Just exactly who is bidding against Edmonton for a 39 year old goalie – let alone a 39 year goalie who wants to be paid like a 1A.

Even Buffalo seems like a stretch and they are the only team that even comes to mind.

OriginalPouzar

Who knows but, from the accounts (Friedman/Seravelli), there will be interest.

The Habs could be in need of a goalie that can help them in a 1A/1B role as of tomorrow night

OriginalPouzar

Dreger:

“I’m told that they’re negotiating to get things done. It’s a slow-moving process and I’m also told that if Mike Smith becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 28, despite the fact that his best years likely being behind him, there are clubs with interest, so the Oilers have some work to do.”

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-rumours-montreal-canadiens-phillip-danault-1.1668440

defmn

Yeah, Dreger’s predictions are about as reliable as mine or HH’s. This time of year you can find a quote from somebody about every UFA in the league.

Personally I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if Smith moves on and I would remind you that I was on an island pretty much by myself last summer saying that Smith would work for another year.

Hoping for another year like last year’s is, to me, betting big on drawing to an inside straight. It could happen but the odds are not very good. Time to cast the net a little wider imo.

Harpers Hair

The odds of filling an inside straight are 11%.

Sounds about right.

OriginalPouzar

Goodrow got the Coleman contract.

Coleman will get the Hyman contract

Hyman will get the Landeskog contract

Landeskog will get the…….

Todd Macallan

…. Denver Boot.

Randle McMurphy

Ding! Ding! Ding!

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!

leadfarmer

Everyone except Landeskog will get bought out

Randle McMurphy

So who gets the Goodrow contract? We need that guy.

OriginalPouzar

Joel Armia?

Randle McMurphy

Yes Please.

MADOIL

Marner contract?

TheGreatBigMac

These overpays are making me Saad.

OriginalPouzar

Bling

 July 20, 2021 8:51 am

I don’t disagree with the overall premise of the post but I think its a bit over-aggressive on the Oilers’ prospects, and this is coming from a guy that loves watching and keeping track of the prospects.

Holloway, in my opinion, has a very high floor – can’t see him not being, at the very at least, a high-end 3C. At the same time, neither Savoie nor Lavoie are sure bets to be NHL players let alone impact top 6 NHL players. They are both trending well but a long long ways from the NHL, including Lavoie. I could get in to detail on my thoughts on what they need to work on but I don’t think that’s what we are here for in this post.

I do agree about Bouchard, he’s all put a lock to be a top 4 but I can’t say that for either Sammy nor Broberg although I do think they are closer to locks than Savoie and Lavoie.

Sammy looks like an absolute gem and I love his skill-set – at the same time, there have been many a top KHL d-man that simply didn’t make it in the NHL – at the same time, Sammy’s career in the OHL and then AHL leads me to think his pop in the KHL will translate back in Canada.

Bling

I think that’s fair and you certainly watch these guys a ton.

Savoie had the type of season where you start to be able to project him as something more than a chance (though still short of a sure bet). What really struck me about Savoie from highlight videos (courtesy of Wheeler’s recent Athletic article) was how good his skating was against men. He has a separation gear that did not show up in his scouting report at draft time. If he developed that between the draft and his first season, that answers a lot of questions about his commitment to being a pro.

Lavoie I think will be top 9, and I was encouraged by his production in Europe. Let’s see what he does as a feature player in NA.

Samorukov I feel better about because of how successful Romanov was this season.

Broberg I am confident in because of his wheels. Guys who can skate like him with that size don’t end up on the bottom pairing, generally. I think the real question is whether he will be top pairing or second pairing. We’ll see. I think his performance this past season, while something of a mild disappointment, was directly attributable to injury.

OriginalPouzar

Oh, yes, they all have NHL translatable skills, including top 4/top6 translatable skills – that’s why they are all “real prospects” but many “real prospects” fail to make it.

Interesting comment on Savoie – I watched about 75% of Denver’s games and thought one of the things he was lacking was that pull-away speed, in particular, well in to shift (he tended to “fade during shifts”). Much of his production was due to his shot and release (and much on the PP) – there weren’t many rush points if I recall correctly.

ArmchairGM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmfUhh4WPQI

There’s some pull-away from 5:55.

Todd Macallan

Phew, for a second I was worried they took Manson.

Bling

That bodes well for Woodcroft if his assistants are getting poached.

godot10

Houle actually pre-dates Woodcroft. He has been around from the Fleming days.

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of Woodcroft, on the notion that maybe Katz is not as willing to spend as much real dollars on the team right now (i.e. pushed the Keith trade given the low real money outlay required), I believe it was Gazolla that mentioned that there are accounts that Katz opened up the purse strings for Woody recently to ensure that he wasn’t poached.

Bling

Didn’t know that! Heck of a move. Woodcroft may be our Cooper/Keefe.

Scungilli Slushy

Not for us Oiler fans. Feels like our only hope to get off the geezer go round.

Give us Woody and Charlie.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Would be happy to see Tippet move on next year and Woodcroft take over, having over-ripened in the minors etc etc.

Todd Macallan

On the topic of the draft, I recently completed a mock on that other site where I was the Oilers GM. Curious what others think of my picks. Have included general rationale for each, thoughts/criticism welcome!

1 (20) Brennan Othmann – LW – CAN – Flint (OHL)/EHC Olten (SL)

– Absolutely love the way he plays, admittedly only was able to see him during the U18s. Picture a bigger Brendan Gallagher with a rocket of a release on his shot. Skating is often mentioned as his main drawback, and while it can use some work, I found him to keep up with the play without issues in my viewings. By all accounts he is in tremendous shape and a gym rat so I don’t see his skating holding him back whatsoever and will likely only improve as he gets stronger. Combining his potential to play, and finish, with skill in a top 6 role along with his fearless, agitating style of play, I see him as close to a can’t miss prospect at this range than most others in this draft.

-Note: Cossa was gone at this point, otherwise I would’ve taken him here 100%.

4 (116) Tyson Hinds – LD – CAN – Rimouski (QMJHL)

– After putting up pedestrian boxcars with Shawinigan this year, blew up offensively with a larger role with Rimouski, putting up 15 pts in his last 23 games and even winning the Q Dman of the month award after the trade. Excellent size (6’3”, 180lbs) with terrific skating and defensive abilities. Combined with developing puck-moving skills has the potential to be a steal in a few years. Saw this as a great chance to restock the leftorium after losing Jones and then Lagesson via the expansion draft (one hopes).

-Note: Love Ryan Winterton at this spot in the real draft but he was long gone here.

6 (180) Jonathan Myrenberg – RD – SWE – Linkoping HC (J20 Nationell)

– Good size, RH shot, Swedish, what’s not to like? According to Futurescope hockey scouting report is a gifted skater (with work needed on straight backwards direction only), very physical with a propensity for crushing checks, and an absolute cannon of a slapshot. Good numbers in the Swedish Jr league (8 pts in 15 games) and playing against men in the “HockeyEttan” (which I believe is the 3rd tier Swedish league after the Allsvenskan but happy to be corrected otherwise) with 6 pts in 9 games, followed by 4 in 6 relegation games.

-Note: especially curious on Swedishposter’s impression of him, rankings seem to be all over the map with this kid.

6 (186) Carson Latimer – RW – CAN – Edmonton (WHL)

– Blazing speed and according to Pronman one of the top skaters in the draft, whom scouts have also told him has great sleeper potential. Ended up going @ # 92 in Pronman’s most recent 7 round mock at the Athletic. Good size and work ethic as well. Decent numbers on a stacked Oil Kings team. Named WHL Central Division ROY. Profiles as a potential strong bottom 6 forward who can play a variety of roles. Given the Covid-related scouting challenges this year would not surprise me to see the Oilers actually take a chance on this kid late in the real draft.

-Note: favourites that were already gone here include Josh Bloom (Otten ++ high on him), Caedan Bankier (big C w/ Kamloops) and Nick Degrazia (think poor man’s Cogliano, can flat out fly).

7 (212) Daniil Lazutin – C – RUS – SKA St. Petersburg (MHL)

– Intriguing, high-upside pick that came into his draft year as one of the most highly touted Russian forward prospects. Dominated in D-1 year at the U17s where his team won gold but followed up with a very disappointing draft year, although still managed to make the U18 team. Checks all the boxes for a prototypical Tyler Wright pick and late round home run swing, including size, skating, shot, great hands, athletic pedigree (Mom was a 5 time Olympics gold medalist x-country skier) and even some defensive awareness when he decides to show up. Late July 2003 birthday with lots of time to develop further. Potential and all the tools make him worth a chance this late.

Last edited 2 months ago by Todd Macallan
ArmchairGM

Here’s an interesting look at UFA targets & their boxcars for each of their last 82 regular season games:

Landeskog: 31-48-79
Nugent-Hopkins: 31-45-76
Hyman: 31-33-64
Tatar: 19-42-61
Hall: 18-38-56
Saad: 30-15-45
Coleman: 23-20-43

Shocked at Nuge’s number – no wonder Sakic’s been trying to convince Landeskog to sign the same deal. I’d go $7.5M x 6 for him for sure though, maybe more.

Randle McMurphy

Signing Hyman at $5 x 6 would be saad, That’s hall I have to say.

godot10

Saad will be the best value for money.

Brantford Boy

Good stuff here… seems $4.5Mx4 would be reasonable for Saad… then add the $1M for UFA status… so $5.5×4

Bling

Holland did very, very strong work with Nuge. No question between that and the JP contract he has proven himself adept at building bridges with players and finding common ground.

Even the Kassian deal that many of us did not like at the time looks to be moveable. If Kassian does stay, that is based on their own projection of him.

ArmchairGM, do those numbers make you feel better or worse about Landeskog? The numbers are great but man, if people are going to dock Nuge a bit for playing with 97 and Drai, what do you do for Landeskog? There’s no way he’s driving the bus with MacKinnon and Rantanen there. MacKinnon in particular is a zone entry savant.

Anyway, Landeskog, great player, but 9 million / year? No thanks. That kind of deal makes sense for a Seattle maybe.

ArmchairGM

Yeah, I’m not biting at $9M.

As for play-driving, it might help to look at each player’s 5v5 over the past 2 seasons and IPP. I don’t have time to filter each guy to 82 GP, so I’m going with the 2 partial seasons.

Tatar: 118, 17-43-60 (2.36 P/60) 73.17 IPP
Saad: 102, 29-18-47 (2.21) 73.44 IPP
Landeskog: 108, 19-35-54 (2.00) 64.29 IPP
Hyman: 94, 21-26-47 (1.97) 57.32 IPP
Hall: 118, 15-37-52 (1.86) 72.22 IPP
Coleman: 121, 25-22-47 (1.84) 68.12 IPP
Nuge: 117, 22-26-48 (1.75) 64.00 IPP

Could the Oilers get Saad and Coleman for under $10M? That might be ideal…

Bling

Tatar and Saad look super tempting by these metrics.

Tatar in particular could be a perfect fit because he isn’t going to block anyone on a one year deal. Saad can slide up and down the lineup. Coleman’s good, I just wonder about getting him and putting him on the first line, a role he hasn’t played before.

ArmchairGM

Tatar’s annual playoff disappearing act has me leery of signing him, although as a 2nd LW signing (Saad+Tatar or Hall+Tatar) I don’t have a problem at all.

OriginalPouzar

Seems the Kassian deal is moveable but I’m still not convinced there is a ton of interest in that player/contract at full freight.

I may have to give up on my long-standing opinion that its not tradeable without retention – I’m still not off that but I may be proven wrong and hope I am.

leadfarmer

I think the player type is very desirable and GMs are back to being riverboat gamblers. Hes gone if Holland want him to be

OriginalPouzar

Nuge was a top 5 producer at evens in the last 3 months of 2020.

Lets hope some of that magic with Drai (and Kailer) comes back.

Scungilli Slushy

I hope Nuggy doesn’t have buyer’s remorse. His contract is going to look like a Class A lowball compared to most of those other fellas.

Scungilli Slushy

Which was why when Leon got his I didn’t care it was too high. It seemed obvious it would be a value deal for the Oilers soon enough. It isn’t the best guys that kill the cap.

OriginalPouzar

I think he’ll survive on the $80M of comp directly from the org (plus his ELC)

Randle McMurphy

Andy Strickland

“Expect Montreal to pick talks back up from last off-season with Mike Hoffman. Chose to sign with the Blues over the Canadiens even though Montreal offered close to a million more dollars. STL has expressed interest in bringing him back.”

Boil-in-the-Oil

Any thoughts on Phillip Danault? Seems to want out of Montreal, UFA & only 28 yrs old, was left unprotected, and is a defensive centre. Sounds like a fit for our 3C? Maybe the Kraken take him (although they’ll have plenty of other potential 3C’s to choose from)? Don’t know the price but I like the idea.

godot10

He doesn’t want to be a 3C. He can go be a 2C or a 1B-C in Seattle. The expansion draft is not particularly deep in value for money at centre…unless teams start throwing 1st round picks at Seattle to take their overpriced guys.

Randle McMurphy

hmmm…I danault.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Jarvis

Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Nuge – Danault – Yamamoto

Could work as a top 6, or Danault plays a similar role to Nuge and is one of the two LWs in the top 6 if the Oilers keep Draisaitl on his own line.

OriginalPouzar

I fully believe that McDavid and Drai should start every hockey game on separate lines. Not only do i think that they can get a bit stale when the continue to play together but I think the ability to put them together in-game and the effect it can have, is very important to in-game strategy – whether its just after PKs and icings, for the odd shift here or there or a full mid-game switch to change the dynamic of the game, its a must have option.

Jarvis

I agree on all points, but does Dave Tippett?

Last edited 2 months ago by Jarvis
OriginalPouzar

As at the end of the most recent playoffs, it seems not.

Harpers Hair
leadfarmer

Would be fine with that outcome

winchester

If the Kraken can build a playoff team using primarily depth players and a few free agents, why can’t the Oilers?

The Oil have a huge headstart With their big star players.

After that, just as many quality depth players are available that should push the Oilers to front of the pack.

We dont need high risk expensive players, we need the Killorn’s, Palats, Armia’s.

Im still hoping for huge upgrades that improve the team from top to bottom. Fingers crossed.

Material Elvis

The Oilers are a playoff team already…

The Trade Guy

That’s been the frustrating part. We got the Aces and now struggle to fill out the roster with good value players. Something the Oilers used to be good at.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

I have plenty of time for Wallstedt but I’m not sold on Cossa. He’s big but rather vanilla in all other areas. Svechkov would probably arrive early and fill 3C for a decade. If all three are gone then L’Hereaux has some appeal as the team could use more truculence. None of the late 1st round RD really jump off the page for me.

Randle McMurphy

What level of math do you need to pick a damn goalie or a dman!?

It’s not rocket surgery!

🙂

Randle McMurphy

“I’m not going to publish one today”

Boo-urns!

Randle McMurphy

“They wander…but Mackenzie takes treats”….nice.

DevilsLettuce

The only way Larsson is using Keith’s contract at a sticking point is if he’s smoking crack.

Randle McMurphy

I think we should pay Larsson double what we’re paying Keith. 🙂

$4.2m in the first year,
$3m in the second year.

DevilsLettuce

I’d even throw in a 3rd year for 3, then he can hold it over Duncan’s head for the next 2 years if it’s ego tickling that needs to be done.

Randle McMurphy

Barclay Goodrow

$3.5m x 6

“It’s the “Term” stupid”

Randle McMurphy

Moonlight Mile

Analytics guys…”the song re-creates all the paradoxical distances inherent in erotic love with a power worthy of Yeates.”

Saw him good guys…. “The cocaine song.”

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) Tweeted:
The Calgary Flames have continued to take calls on Matthew Tkachuk, but multiple sources have told me the asking price is astronomical.

https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1417532281707655169?s=20

Elgin R

The cat in your mom’s basement is not a reliable source!

Harpers Hair

My mom is dead and I hate cats.

Randle McMurphy

Do you by chance, live in the Bates Motel? Because that would explain everything.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

Look out your window.👀

Material Elvis

An astronomical price tag for the privilege of dealing with his astronomical qualifying offer. What a deal!

OriginalPouzar

I hope the flames keep Tkachuk – I mean he’s an RFA with arb rights next off-season, one year from UFA status and due a qualifying offer of $9M.

I love his contract as an Oiler fan.

Elgin R

Tre has put himself in the doggy do with that contract. Imagine paying the Turtle more than the German Gretzky.

Last Season’s #s
Turtle: 56 games / 18.2 min/g average / 2.5 pts/60 / 43 pts
Leon: 56 games / 22.2 min/g average / 4.1 pts/60 / 84 pts

Benning and Treliving are the greatest GM help to the Oilers in the Pacific Division. On the coaching side, Flat-Top and the Swarm also do the Oilers a solid by just being themselves.

OriginalPouzar

4.1 P/60, my goodness….. and then a key part of the best PP in the league…. my goodness.

Salty Fanboy

I’ve been wondering about the possibility of pursuing Landeskog and the logic of doing it right now. We have a generational player that just doesn’t have that bonafide winger to run and gun with. Landeskog seems to have emerged as available. He is proven, still in his prime, a recognized leader and has a track record of playing with a talent like McDavid in McKinnon. Isn’t he a perfect target for us right now? The reluctance is the potential price/term. But if I consider that if JP had worked out as we hoped when we drafted him and he was the winger that Landeskog is today, would we be uncomfortable stepping up and giving him the contract that Landeskog might demand to lock him up? Recognize there is a gap in years between the two in this mind exercise, but if we are burning years with McDavid and Leon and we have a situation where a first line winger has emerged by chance and we have the cap space to pursue, shouldn’t this be pursued aggressively? Not sure what it would take, but is $8 x 7 for this contract a deal breaker? I know we hope that JP continues to develop and Holloway might be that guy, but that is hope. Seems to me a combination of McDavid/Leon/RNH/Landeskog for $35.5 MM versus Matthews/Marner/Tavares/Nylander for $44.6 MM is a fair bet.

Elgin R

Is a winger, even an elite one like GL, an $8m player in the current flat cap era? I don’t know. Could spending $7m on a legit #1LW vs 2 x $3.5m on lesser lights be the play here? Yes, I would think so and fill in the rest with ELC players.

Assumption: Neal is bought out or traded and Kahun gets-a-Kraken.

Landeskog – McDavid – JP
RNH – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Holloway – McLeod – Kassian
Shore – JJ – Archie
Extras: Benson – Turris

or

Landeskog – McDavid – JP
Holloway – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
McLeod – RNH – Kassian
Shore – JJ – Archie
Extras: Benson – Turris

meanashell11

I choose Landeskog. Go big or go home.

OriginalPouzar

I take Landeskog over Nuge but the gap isn’t nearly as high as the projected contract terms.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Elgin R

OP what are you going on about? This discussion was about ANOTHER left winger and had nothing to do with RNH.

OriginalPouzar

The conversation included signing Landeskog and that would be at like, $3M more per season than Nuge who has recently set the market on top 6LW – Landeskog is >> Nuge but surely not by that amount.

Durag

Landeskog can and does play center as well. He was 56.6% taking 509 faceoffs last year.

OriginalPouzar

100%, the Adam Larsson re-sign is an important piece of business – its almost a must-do. At the same time, the “reasonable contract terms” on Larsson has already increased from “hopefully 3 years and $4M or under” to 4-5 years and $4.5M or under.

This is disturbing and there does need to be a line in the sand.

As LT stated in his monologue this morning, that Goodrow contract may set the market for all players higher than originally thought.

Bling

Larsson is good but I agree with you, absolutely need to stay out of bidding wars.

I believe strongly in Spec’s 3.9 number.

Harpers Hair

The Duncan Keith deal likely set the market for Larsson.

leadfarmer

2.2 mil and 1.5 million per?
Deal

Harpers Hair

No. The 5.5 million.

leadfarmer

Players don’t get paid in cap hit

Harpers Hair

But they and their agents are certainly aware of it when negotiating contracts.

Do you really think Larsson would accept a $2 million contract average because that’s all the cash Keith is getting ?

DevilsLettuce

If Larsson is making his career choices because of a contract Keith signed in Chicago as a Norris winner, Stanley cup champion, oh and owns a conny.. I mean some people close to Larsson need to be honest with him.

Side

I enjoy the irony of everyone of your posts that include

“Are you telling me”

Or

“Let me get this straight”

Or

“Do you really think”

After making posts for months on topics such as

“Nuge will sign a rich contract with the Kraken for his horses”

Or even posts that are debunked the same day, such as

“Carey Price wants to move out of Montreal”

The Trade Guy

I would hope they aware of it when Keith signed it a decade ago….

Scungilli Slushy

So like how Ovi sets the market for Kahun?

OriginalPouzar

Duncan Keith is making $2.1M this coming season and scheduled to make $1.5M next season. His contract has zero impact on the market and deals to be signed in the next while.

This was a clear troll post – not even trying to hide it.

Elgin R

Poor Adam has only once in his career made it out of the first round, but has grossed over $25m. If take-home pay is the over-riding factor for him then the Oilers are not in the running. If winning with decent pay is the governing criteria, then the Oilers should be in the mix. How many teams with upside and cap space are in need of a #2RD?

Pacific

  • Oilers would like to sign AL and have some money to do it.

Central

  • Both Colorado and Winnipeg could use him and have the cap room

Metro

  • Carolina

Atlantic

  • No team qualifies

The teams that worry me most are Carolina and Winterpeg. Hope Holland gets this done!

Harpers Hair

Don’t sleep on Vancouver.

Diablo

They are welcome to have him at 5 million with excessive term, then. Only a fool would sign a one dimensional d-man that much … oh wait, the Canucks are run by Benning.

jp

They are welcome to have him at 5 million with excessive term, then. 

Seems like they were pretty happy to hand Myers $6Mx5. Looks like it could be a good fit.

leadfarmer

Yeah they will offer Larsson 5 mil per and Hyman over 6 mil because they are running low on contracts to buy out

Elgin R

Tyler Myers: Hold my beer …..

Nate Schmidt: Please, please trade me out of here!

Randle McMurphy

Or any other team that’s not Edmonton.

pts2pndr

You mean don’t sleep in Vancouver where even the stock exchange is shady!

OriginalPouzar

I do think the Canucks will be in on Larsson if he makes it to the 28th – Friedman has mentioned it and did so again this morning (one line in his 31 Thoughts Pod).

I wouldn’t think that Larsson will sign with the Canucks over the Oilers unless the offer was materially better than the Oilers and, no, offering a bunch of Swedish dudes to hang out with isn’t that.

If the Nucks offer $5M X 5 with late contract signing bonuses and trade protection, well, Sail on Adam.

Elgin R

It would have to be a lot more than $5m per. BC tax rates are crushing; provincial rate is 5.5% higher than Alberta’s highest bracket, sales tax is 12% vs 5% in Alberta . Also, he would have to get a large signing bonus just to pay for gas to and from the rink.

Harpers Hair

The Hockey News (@TheHockeyNews) Tweeted:
*Spoiler Alert* 

Kraken fish their wish and select Alexander Kerfoot from the Maple Leafs? https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/1f914.svg https://t.co/AGnfNRbQMP

https://twitter.com/TheHockeyNews/status/1417507862247612420?s=20

leadfarmer

Why would you pick Kerfoot over McCann?
You could just pick up Kerfoot 3 days later for free

Harpers Hair

Side deal…wait for it.

leadfarmer

Must be a hell of a deal
https://twitter.com/thats_offside/status/1417524617791504386?s=21

it ain’t even close

Fuhrious

It says directly in the comments under that this was practice takes.

Primetime

Not to de-rail todays topic, but enjoyed the Larson thread yesterday.

In all of the suggestions at who could be signed as a short-term replacement, I was surprised nobody mentioned Gudbranson. RHD, huge, tough UFA.

In no way would I want him on the Oil, but were there not rumours of Holland pursuing him last year at the trade deadline from Ottawa for a playoff run? Ultimately traded for Kulikov instead?

BornInAGretzkyJersey
Harpers Hair

The big brains at the Athletic with a group mock expansion draft.

All in on Landeskog…I would be too.

https://theathletic.com/2715340/2021/07/20/seattle-kraken-mock-expansion-draft/?source=user_shared_article

Ryan

Sakic left Landeskog unprotected which makes sense as a UFA.

It does appear that he’ll be too expensive for their cap structure.

Avs fans are complaining about potentially losing both Graves and Landeskog, ostensibly their only two ‘truculent’ players in the off season.

I wonder if Hall might end up in Denver.

Harpers Hair

Kadri is pretty truculent somIm not sure why they are so worried.

Adding Hall would depend on the cost so they may just stick with Saad at a reduced rate.

They also have a couple of prospects, Martin Kaut and Sampo Raanto who appear to be ready so Sakic has a few options.

leadfarmer

I cant imagine Landeskog looking at that roster and going Giddy up

Harpers Hair

The projections I’ve seen in a few places have Seattle with 95 points BEFORE they add UFA signings with their available cap space.

You seem fixated on their roster just based on their expansion draft picks without knowing what side deals they have in place or the players they will acquire in free agency.

Some of those side deals should be revealed tomorrow but we won’t really have a good idea of their roster until early August.

leadfarmer

You realize that no one has any idea on any final rosters until August

Randle McMurphy

HH isn’t satisfied with cheering for 31 teams to beat the Oiler’s. He’s got to create a fictional 32nd team.

leadfarmer

And thats a meaningless projection because they would have to take all the “top” players available to them many of which have horrible contracts. Like Price

Harpers Hair

Not true at all.

Price has not been part of those projections.

leadfarmer

By the way
“cant take Tarasenko because then the Blues would have cap to sign Landeskog”

Harpers Hair

You realize that Seattle has been able to talk with free agents since Sunday, right?

They will already know if Landeskog is an option.

leadfarmer

Well just couple of days ago you were saying that all the teams were negotiating with the free agents already,
so which one is it?

buck yoakam

oh the trees are always green in seattle (perry como baby!!)…

Harpers Hair

And they actually are.

Side

You don’t know what Seattle is thinking.

OriginalPouzar

Projections with Seattle at 95 points have been seen.

I just saw some projections with Seth Griffith being taken by the Kraken.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Anyone know what has Tyler Boucher ranked in the first round on the Mackenzie list, and not at all by LT?

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

If I had to guess, he’s very physical (+ for BMs aggregation of scouts around the league) but his offense doesn’t jump off the page (- for LT’s list that places extreme emphasis on scoring). It’s not like he didn’t score at all with 11 pts in 12 games for USNTDP; just that the scoring he did was in small samples and not enough when compared to guys like Lucius and Pastujov.

Probably doesn’t warrant not appearing at all, though.

JimmyV1965

Is Seattle really adding $80 mill to the free agent pool? Tampa was basically $20 mill over the cap. That money will now be diluted and spread across the league. There might be some other teams with new contracts kicking in that would put them over the cap as well. If there’s $60 mill in additional cap space, that work out to an overall increase of $2 mill per team. But it doesn’t really work that way. Most teams are still struggling with the cap, while Seattle could be bidding against itself in free agency.

Dac189

There’s other players that will be on LTIR including Weber and possibly Price.
Then there’s the use of buyouts. 4m saved on Neal.
Lighting are only bringing back Kucherov. Not the other 2 injured players.

In the 5 years before the freeze, the cap went up by 10m or 2m per year.
~2.5% increase per year.

We’re still at the highest cap hit the NHL has ever seen.
We should not be expecting contracts to be much lower just because of a 2.5% increase freeze.

JimmyV1965

But wouldn’t there be LTIR guys every year, like Klef last year? And buyouts every year too. I’m not sure that has an impact. There’s definitely more money in the overall pool, but I think the Tampa situation is unique and dilutes the $80 mill

Sierra

Seattle is not adding $80M to the free agent pool.

Victoria Oil

Seattle has to spend a minimum of $49 million in the expansion draft, I believe. They may flip some of these players for picks, but no, they are not adding $80 mln to the free agent pool.