This is Tyler Pitlick. I was fairly certain he would have an NHL career of note, ranked him No. 21 on my final 2010 list, saying “already developing as a 2-way player and a safe pick at this point in the draft. He’s an up and down grinding type with skill and scouts see him as a throwback winger when he reaches the show.” His NHLE on draft day (18 points per 82 games) was low, but I wasn’t as convinced of the equivalencies then as now. His points per 82 games during an NHL career of 286 games (24) suggests NHLE had the player surrounded.
What about you? Are you able to identify who will succeed and who will fail? It’s a moving target and despite the fact being a first round pick gets you chances, it doesn’t mean an NHL job is guaranteed. Let’s look forward and back, then test your expertise.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the 2021-22 Oilers?
- Lowetide: What are the Oilers’ ‘perfect lines’ for next season?
- Lowetide: The Oilers and value contracts. Three now, two later
- Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Zack Kassian could be an important part of the Oilers’ scoring
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to a massive 8-year contract extension
- Lowetide: How many goals will Jesse Puljujarvi score for the Oilers next season?
- Lowetide: 8 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers
- DNB: Rating the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ ideal defence pairings for 2021-22?
- Lowetide: The future may come early for three Oilers prospect defencemen
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason, 4.0
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021-22 depth chart
- Lowetide: Warren Foegele acquisition possible key to improving the Oilers third line
- DNB: Ethan Bear on being traded, his time with the Oilers
- DNB: Ethan Bear out, Cody Ceci in, Tyson Barrie stays
- DNB: ‘Ultimate competitor’ Zach Hyman signs with Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2021
- DNB: Oilers draft day notebook
- Jonathan Willis: Zach Hyman, by the numbers
- Lowetide: 5 players outside the NHL who could help the Oilers
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
2007 TRAINING CAMP
The 2007 training camp was absolutely nuts. The Oilers had a pile of veteran forwards who came through the system and were part of the 2005-06 Stanley Cup run, along with a dozen forward prospects who had duplicate skills. It seemed all the undersized skill passers on the planet who played wing or should have played wing arrived at Oilers camp at the same time.
All of these players were young and trying to establish themselves in the NHL at training camp in 2007 fall. Some played in the NHL, and were looking to make the team on second through fourth lines, behind Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll, Marty Reasoner, Raffi Torres and Dustin Penner. Here are the dozen:
RW Robert Nilsson– 05-06 numbers were EV points-per-60mins: 1.56, PP points-per-60mins: 3.37. MacT and Lowe have stated that he’s penciled in on the 2line and they’re hoping he runs with it. My own guess is that he doesn’t hold the job for 82 games.
LC Andrew Cogliano– I think he’ll be MacT’s favorite by the end of camp among the new kids on the block, and also believe that Cogliano is the one young center who can break camp with the big club and play more than one role. My bet is that MacT finds him useful in the energy 4line role, as a PK man, and that he can from time to time rotate up as needed and not make a fool of himself. His college experience probably makes him a little more ready than a kid like Schremp was just based on reading and reacting without the puck.
RW Patrick Thoresen– 06-07 numbers were ES Points-per-60mins: 1.15, PP Points-per-60mins: 3.26. He’s a very good young player who makes clever plays, works hard and plays an intelligent game. He might get some 2line minutes this season.
RC Sam Gagner– The same buzz we saw with Hemsky was growing with Gagner before the Canada-Russia series. They sent Hemsky down despite his fine showing as an 18-year old in his first NHL camp (they sent him out September 26, 2001, AFTER Marc Andre Bergeron and Fernando Pisani were sent out), and may do the same with Gagner.
RW Marc Pouliot- 06-07 numbers were ES points-per-60mins: 1.17, PP points-per-60mins: 1.11. I think he might end up being the 3rd line RW if Reasoner is healthy this fall. Pouliot has enough skill to chip in on a checking line with Reasoner and say Moreau, and he’s already shown he can help without the puck.
RC Kyle Brodziak- 23 years old and I think he has an excellent chance to be an end of the roster player out of camp for the Oilers. He looks like this decade’s Rem Murray, and KP thinks he might benefit heavily from Pisani’s injury.
LC Rob Schremp- His 20 year old AHL season was superior to other Oiler centers of recent vintage (Schremp was .768 ppg, Stoll was .711, Pouliot was .692, Brodziak was .571) but each of the other men offered a wider range of skills. Schremp is a quality prospect in a very narrow view (soft minutes skill C) and it just so happens that matches the Oilers need. He is healthy, and he does have a chance to make this team.
LW Jean Francois Jacques– Going into camp the tea leaves look like he’ll be heading to Pennsylvania. Jacques made the team last season but didn’t do enough to get into the lineup (just like Mikhnov) and unlike Thoresen never really did prove he belonged in the NHL. He has an advantage in that (unlike Nilsson) he does have some unique qualities that make his inclusion on the big roster attractive, but he’s likely headed to the AHL with the hope that he sets it on fire.
RC Ryan O’Marra- He’s healthy and that’s a pretty big deal. Plays a physical style and could win a job as a crash and bang type winger at the end of the roster.
LW Slava Trukhno– Has a wide range of skills, including size, skill and grit. We don’t know if he’ll get a good shot or even if he’ll take advantage should it come his way, but the resume is pretty impressive.
RW Zack Stortini– 06-07 numbers were ES Points-per-60mins: .31, PP Points-per-60mins: 0. Kid impressed the coach last year, he’s a guy who might grab the last F roster spot.
RW Colin McDonald– Fresh out of college and a guy whose age (23 this month) suggests he’ll last a little longer in camp than some of the other new pro’s.
WHO MADE THE TEAM?
Based on playing time opening night, the winners were:
- Robert Nilsson 17:01
- Andrew Cogliano 14:29
- Kyle Brodziak 13:07
- Sam Gagner 10:53
- J-F Jacques 3:46
- Marc Pouliot (made the roster, did not play)
The opening night roster is here. Among the men who I listed above, here’s how they fared during the 2007-08 season:
- Sam Gagner 79 games, 13-36-49
- Andrew Cogliano 82 games, 18-27-45
- Robert Nilsson 71 games, 10-31-41
- Kyle Brodziak 80 games, 14-17-31
- Zack Stortini 66 games, 3-9-12
- Marc Pouliot 24 games, 1-6-7
- Patrik Thoresen 17 games, 2-1-3 (lost to Philadelphia on waivers)
- J-F Jacques 9 games, 0-0-0
- Rob Schremp 2 games, 0-0-0
RIESEN TO BELIEVE
The Oilers don’t have one dozen young forwards pushing for work this season, but if we include all positions we get to an interesting number of prospects who have a chance to play with the big team at some point this season. I count prospects as players with fewer than 50 games, so Evan Bouchard qualifies and Brendan Perlini does not qualify.
RHD Evan Bouchard. He has a clear path to a fantastic season and career. Although the presence of Barrie will curtail his power-play usage, Bouchard’s five on five points-per-60 a year ago (1.27) projects to 18 points in just 60 games if he averages 14 minutes a game. Added to a small power-play role, chances are Bouchard posts 25+ points in his first full season.
LC Ryan McLeod. Fleet center already played in 10 games with the Oilers last season. He and Bouchard are the only two prospects who we can safely pencil in for opening night play. Offense will be an issue but he did post a point-per-game in the AHL at age 21, so it’s a matter of him settling in to the NHL and learning to absorb the punished doled out when going to the areas where goals are scored. I think we can say he’ll play in 50 games with Edmonton and land close enough for jazz.
LW Tyler Benson. I expect he’ll play in the NHL this season, perhaps not with the Oilers. Benson enters training camp looking for a job, with No. 4 LW, No. 13 and No. 14 forward the openings available to him. If you’ve succeeded in any career, you know it isn’t where you start, it’s where you finish. Benson has real talent and brings a range of skill, plus no matter how much we talk up Devin Shore and Brendan Perlini, this isn’t a massive challenge. Bias enters the conversation at the end of the roster, maybe Tippett will choose Perlini’s speed over Benson’s passing touch. I think Benson makes the NHL and sees 40+ games this year.
LHD William Lagesson. I had him ahead of Benson until the Slater Koekkoek signing, now Lagesson is the No. 8 defenseman and could start the year in the AHL. I expect there’s a chance Tippett keeps 8 blue to start the season and Lagesson could play 25+ games in 2021-22.
LC Dylan Holloway. He is five weeks away from turning 20 and if we’re talking long term then Holloway is right at the top of this list. Drafted by the current management group, his NHLE is strong and he has size plus speed. The only downbeat is a path to work on the top three lines, as the acquisitions of Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan would appear to block him. I don’t think he makes the opening night lineup but will play in the NHL this coming season.
RW Cooper Marody. My sense of the situation is that Marody, despite being more skilled than Benson, doesn’t bring enough other things for the club to consider him as an option. I still believe he has earned 50+ games to show what he can do offensively in the NHL, but I don’t believe it will be in Edmonton.
LHD Dmitri Samorukov. He played so well in the KHL last season I’m tempted to push him into the 25+ games category, but it’s also true he struggled with the Condors two years ago. I’ll suggest he shows well enough in camp but doesn’t get the job, while also earning strong recall consideration throughout the season.
LHD Philip Broberg. I expect he’ll spend most of his first North American season in California, but a big, mobile defender like Broberg (turned 20 in June) will see the NHL the moment he shows reliability. Although Samorukov is ahead of him (by my estimation) they aren’t the same player type and the third pairing LH side does not offer a great deal of resistance at this time. He’ll play in the NHL, but fewer than 10 games.
G Stuart Skinner. He played one (shaky) game last season in Edmonton, and then performed well in the AHL. He’s the first recall among prospect goalies, but there are three veteran NHL stoppers ahead of him. My guess is fewer than five NHL games.
LW Raphael Lavoie. I don’t think he’ll play in the NHL this season, but do think he could score 20 goals in Bakersfield and set himself up as a strong option for the 2022-23 Oilers. He posted five goals in 19 games in the AHL one year ago, over 68 games (Condors are scheduled for that number in 2021-22) that projects to 18 goals. Seems likely he’ll surpass 20 when he’s a year older (turns 21 in September).
G Ilya Konovalov. Like Lavoie, I think he’ll impress in Bakersfield and build his resume, but won’t get into NHL action during 2021-22. He’s undersized, there will be a period of adjustment and there’s a lot on the line for the GM and coach in Edmonton. Konovalov would have to kick out the jams and flatten the competition to get a long NHL chance this coming season.
RHD Filip Berglund. I expect the organization will want him to play the entire season in Bakersfield, in all situations, and then look at him during training camp in the fall of 2022 as a possible depth defender. He could surprise, and after being healthy all last year it’s possible there’s a run on RH blue this coming year, but my bet is he doesn’t see Edmonton after the start of the regular season.
LHD Markus Niemelainen. He has size, pro experience and did impress with his mobility in Bakersfield last season. Edmonton has 7 men slotted for NHL duty, and four minor leaguers ahead of him, so it’s a longshot. I could see the Oilers having a look at him, just to see how he shines. His play in North America has been far better than the scouting reports from Europe implied.
Now, I’ve placed my cards on the table. Bouchard, McLeod, Benson will play, and Lagesson, Holloway, Marody, Samorukov, Broberg and Skinner get in at least one game during 2021-22. What about you?
I’ll get in on this too:
McLeod – 60 (mostly in the lineup unless injured)
Benson – 30 (all with the Oilers)
Holloway – 15 (late season call-up, similar to McLeod last year)
Marody – 0 (just too much competition, could well be claimed)
Lavoie – 0 (but could get a cup if he plays really well)
-I think Ryan surprises a bit and holds onto 3C all year.
-I *think* they want McLeod getting NHL experience (based on his call-up/usage last year), but depth/contingency plans suggest Holland could add another experienced C. At this stage $1.5M could buy a pretty decent NHL veteran and a number are still available (Brassard, Zajac, Cizikas, Staal, Bozak).
-Turris could throw a wrench into youngster games played too if his training/health/other have turned him back into an NHLer.
Bouchard – 75 (every night save injury)
Lagesson – 15 (I’m guessing he’s waived but not claimed. First call-up, but could be passed if he’s outperformed in the Bake. 25 years old)
Samorukov – 10 (could jump over a few guys, not guaranteed)
Broberg – 2 (a bit of a wild card. Could make the team out of camp or spend the whole year in Bakersfield. I’ll guess the latter because of depth).
Niemelainen/Berglund – 0
-Nurse, Barrie, Keith, Ceci have all been pretty damn healthy through their careers, so not expecting a lot of games missed there.
-I’ll guess that Koekkoek looks more like the Chicago version and is the main 3LD through the season.
-Russell is a very capable 7D.
-After that I really don’t think there will be a lot of games left for Lagesson, Samorukov, Broberg and the others.
Skinner/Konovalov – 0 (I think the 3 NHL goalies remain in the organization).
Does the cap even have room for another $1.5M player (in addition to Kailer around that hit)?
Not even taking in to account day to day cap management, such as putting a player on IR for 10-15 days with a minor injury and calling up a replacement – need full cap space for that.
I believe so, yes.
I hope Tippett runs Benson-McLeod-Marody as a line in training camp and preseason games. Hard to see one of Archibald or Kassian sitting from here, but I think, if the younger guys perform like I think they could, it’s the right call.
Change the team name.
Screw up the uniforms.
Play like garbage.
This EE plan is really coming together.
is it hockey season yet?
I actually enjoy their field goal-oriented offence. Less risk of injury from running into the end zone.
They will be very fresh come playoff time. 😀
Bouchard – 82
Russel – 30
Lagesson – 41
Koekkoek – 30
Samorukov – 10
Broberg – 3
Berglund – 10
McLeod – 60
Benson – 41
Perlini – 41
Shore – 60
Holloway – 5
Marody – 5
Skinner – 3
Konovalov – 0
I expect these guys to play more than people expect due to injuries. People always seem underestimate them. Hopefully the waiver wire is kind.
Bouchard gets the whole season.
Mcleod is healthy scratched at times.
Benson gets waived. Maybe plays a game or two with the Oilers or another org.
Marody gets waived. No NHL games.
Holloway passes McLeod by seasons end. 40ish games.
Lagesson gets waived. Plays a few for the Oilers anyway.
Broberg gets a few games.
Samorukov and Skinner get none.
Always loved Thoresen. Was annoyed when he didn’t get much ice time in 2007 after a stellar season the previous year. Felt really bad for what happened to his testicles when playing for Philly. Beyond painful.
People are much more optimistic than I am about McLeod. His unwillingness to engage in the physical part of the game is troubling. I know it was a short sample, but it looked like he almost avoided contact.
It is important to consider what a player can do along with what they cannot do. Every player does not have to do everything. If McLeod can play solid defense, and generate positive possession and scoring metrics for a line with his ability to transport the puck up the ice, play him with two physical wingers.
Mix and match players with different strengths and weaknesses.
Sort of how Barrie needs to be paired with offensive forwards & a strong defensive partner in order to maximize his strengths? 😉
Barrie isn’t value for money. All his alleged strengths (which one is paying through the teeth for) are easily replaced for a fraction of the cost via other players the Oilers have (or recently had).
The Oilers don’t have a bottom six forward who can generate positive possession metrics for their line. And who can PK and be defensively responsible. McLeod is a scarce and cheap asset.
I think you mean you don’t think Barrie is value for money even though his most common partner and on ice teammates disagree with your assessment – as do several GM’s who have paid him more salary for his services than Holland is paying.
Everybody gets to have an opinion. Contiinually stating it as though it is a fact is somewhat disingenuous.
I agree McLeod is cheap and brings something that is scarce on the Oilers at the moment. Whether it is enough to hold on to the job is still an open question 10 games into his NHL career.
Barrie is a known quantity! One GM threw him in a trade with cap held. Toronto let him walk! The rubber will hit the road when Barrie has to play with other than a first pairing D on the second pairing. His offence is excellent but his defence is third pairing at best and he isn’t able to PK. You can put ice cream on crap and it still is what it is no matter how much you try to defend it or dress it up! The man has value as an offensive defence man playing with a skilled defensive defence man!
If you will read the original comment godot was explaining that very few players are good in isolation and that it makes a difference who they are paired with to maximizes their value.
I simply agreed with him by pointing out that was true of Barrie as well. I think most teams play their offensive dman with their strongest defensive guy and their best forwards.
Toronto let him walk for a number of reasons. He was superfluous with Rielly on the team and his cap hit.
I agree. In fact that has always been my point.
I am of the belief that having Barrie on the team with his defensive limitations reduces the team’s options re defensive structure and second and third pairing deployment and player skills requirements. Barrie can not be played with a rookie left D as a veteran D should be able to do. It is questionable at best if he can play without a first pairing quality D on second or third pairing. He would make the most sense on a team that can afford to dress seven D on a regular basis.
I don’t think Babcock and Barrie seen eye to eye after Babcock’s firing Barrie went on a ripper. I’ll give Tippett credit for giving the green light to Barrie on offence.
Well said!
Everyone gets on McLeod for not playing physical but the number one center is not all that physical either. Let McLeod get accustomed to playing with players older than him before you make a judgement. Due to his talent level it is reasonable to assume he has always played against more mature players. Give the young man a chance!
To me, there is a difference between “playing physical” and seemingly avoiding contact at all costs and a lack of willingness to engage and got to some of the tougher areas.
I don’t think anyone is requiring him being a banger and playing like Kass or Archie but its tough to “drive play” as Godot described without some willingness to engage.
Yes, he will be very good at transporting the puck but, if he can’t help on o-zone puck retrieval and o-zone play, he likely won’t be driving any sort of results.
Lets not forget, shy offense has always been a concern and, in my opinion, its related to the lack of willingness to engage (which has been there from his junior days).
He popped offensively in his 2nd season in the Bake but it wasn’t at all due to development in this area but moreso just a dominant dominant line that always had the puck.
He’s still growing in to a man and developing – hopefully his 15 games helped him he realize what he needs to do in order to take that next step – he’s got the size, speed and skill.
This is the difference between 4C/PK specialist and top end 3C – in my opinion.
I hope McLeod figures it out, but Connor is much more willing to engage physically. It’s not even close. I’m not saying McLeod has to go out there and start laying guys out. But right now he appears to avoid contact almost completely. Hopefully he learns.
This is 100% true from my viewings and it was the same in the AHL.
McLeod definitely does not fit the mold of the Holland forward
Yeah, the one forward position that does not clearly have a reasonable fit is 3C. McLeod is iffy & I think Ryan is really more suited to 4C.
This will be one of the more interesting TC battles to watch.
If everything breaks right, maybe we can slot Nuge into the 3C role. Problem solved.
Handicappping the Calder Trophy race.
https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiUWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNpLmNvbS9ob2NrZXkvbmV3cy90b3AtMTAtZWFybHktY2FuZGlkYXRlcy1mb3ItdGhlLTIwMjItY2FsZGVyLXRyb3BoedIBVmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNpLmNvbS9ob2NrZXkvLmFtcC9uZXdzL3RvcC0xMC1lYXJseS1jYW5kaWRhdGVzLWZvci10aGUtMjAyMi1jYWxkZXItdHJvcGh5?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen
Of note…Bovada odds.
Caulfield +115
Raymond +225
Podkolzin +400
Robertson +400
Seider +1200
Summertime filler?
Not for bookies…they deal in real money.
I doubt bookies set their odds based upon Hockey News summer time filler. These prognostications rarely turn out to be correct. Bookies play the odds – the one who wins is paid for by all the ones who didn’t.
If you or I came up with a list of Calder candidates at this point would it really look all that different than what the HN wrote?
That is what I meant by summer time filler. Right now it looks reasonable.
Predictive? Not so much. There is always a fly in the ointment.
You can’t make much dough waiting for half the season to transpire.
I don’t need to make any dough. I’m retired.
Are you seriously trying to tell me that anybody bets real money based upon a Hockey News story?
No I’m not.
Serious bettors get to work, assess the odds the bookies are offering, then do their own research….not rely on a Sports Illustrated article although that can provide some information.
As I stated, you have to consider what factors the voters will value including Caulfield’s playoff performance.
Also a major factor is the size of the market in which each player will perform since many casual bettors will place their bets on “their guy”.
Team strength also plays into the equation since a rookie will have a much more difficult time excelling on a team like Detroit for example.
You seem uninterested in the dynamic of sports betting since you’re “retired” so I wonder why you keep commenting on things that don’t interest you.
As for me, I enjoy the process and as a “fan free agent” find it adds another layer of interest to the game through the dog days of Tuesday night games in Arizona in February.
Obviously, your mileage varies and there’s nothing wrong with that.
All I said is that it is summertime filler – with a question mark.
Is that not what you just agreed to in this post?
No problem. I will try and resist the urge to identify fluff pieces as such in the future.
He needs to bet and win to make himself feel worthwhile!
They even pay their bets lost unlike you!
And in HHs fingers
Holloway isn’t even mentioned in the notables. The kid is going to be a rock star this coming year.
It’s very likely he would need to play in the top 6 for most of the season to get any consideration.
Do you think that’s a reasonable bet?
If Holland and Tippett want to win then they’ll ice the best possible team which includes Hollaway. The way they handled Bouchard scares me he’s our 2nd best D-man that needs reps instead sits in a Hotel room. He had a advantage over must of the competition because he was in game shape playing overseas. I would like to find out the real reason Bouchard was not playing and it’s not the bologna face answers I see on this blog.
“Bologna face answers” is always good for a +. 😉
Maybe icing the best possible team includes Holloway but we don’t know that and, of course, that may not mean Holloway in the top 6 which was the question.
Even if Holloway is one of the top 12 forwards that doesn’t necessarily mean he should be in the lineup in October if his development is best served with some AHL time – both can be true and this is an important player going forward, if the AHL for a stint gives him the best chance to reach his potential and his place in the lineup would be a marginal increase, the decision to keep him isn’t as clear.
Reasons citing why Bouchard wasn’t playing have been cited to you countless time. I don’t know what “bologna face answers” mean but its clear you don’t agree that they were the actual reasons for Tip’s decision.
I would suggest if you would like to “find out the real reasons”, maybe provide our thoughts on why the stated reasons were not real and a discussion could be had that could lead to the answer you seek?
Seider will win it going away. He won’t rack up eye catching point totals, but this will be the start of a dominating career.
Based on his playoff experience, Caulfield will have an advantage.
Voters are supposed to base their choices on only the current season but are not very good at forgetting what they have already witnessed.
Who would you take right now at this moment the shifty shady Caulfield or the Ryan Smith middleweight power forward Dylan Hollaway.
Your answer likely falls in which player(s) is likely to get significant top 6F or top 4D on a successful offensive team since counting numbers always affect voters.
For example, Quinton Byfield might be the most talented of the entire group but is likely to get 3rd line minutes in LA.
Another consideration is which players are likely “NHL ready”.
We know that Caulfield is and Podkolzin has spent two seasons playing against men in the second best league in the world so he should be but there is always the Russian adjustment period that can affect things.
And then you also have to consider the recent success of modern defensemen and there are a couple of high end prospects who will get a lot of rope on weak teams.
If I had to place a bet right now I would wager Caulfield is the likely winner but I would worry about his size and the potential for injury.
If you think Holloway has a chance I would advise betting a unit on him right now because the payoff would be enormous.
But I wouldn’t.
I will be shocked if Caufield scores 15. He’s got no centres and the pressure to perform will be excruciating for a rookie winger.
Remember that you heard it here first. Seidereina rookie of the year, after being named the top defenseman of the 2021 Men’s World Championships and top defenseman for the 2020-21 SHL season.
I was just thinking about the Brendan Dillon trade.
The Jets acquired Dillon after the Kraken draft for two second round picks.
Dillon has three years left at $3.9m.
Dillon might take over 1LW from Morrissey.
Dillon vs Keith…
I wonder if Holland even spoke with Maclellan.
Although taking over for Morrissey isn’t saying much
Although I do find the fancies tend to overrate defensive 17-19 min a night D
Dillon should partner well with DeMelo ….they played together in San Jose.
After the trade was made, any LD that was traded or “deemed available” was brought up in the context of the Keith acquisition (acquisition cost, fit in the lineup, cap hit, etc.).
Fair enough but it was (and is) clear, at least to me, that Ken Holland wanted Duncan Keith and what he perceives as the value that Duncan Keith will bring to the lineup. Now, of course, it seems Ken Holland values what Duncan Keith brings (or he thinks he will bring) more than almost any Oiler fan but the likes of Dillon, Suter, etc., all the other d-men that moved, do not bring what Ken Holland was looking for.
Don’t get me wrong – the Dillon acquisition was a great deal for the Jets – with Dillon and Schmidt (out of the tirefire out west), they are going to be very formidable.
I agree with this take, whether those valuations were warranted or not.
I don’t know
He goes from career good depth D to first pairing D with low scoring and limited PP and not top PK minutes on the Caps?
Not to mention that Keith was brought in for things Dillon can’t provide.
The Oilers have a quiet core and the Captain is young. The need an injection of mental toughness and stability in trying moments, like Perry brought to the Habs and is being paid for in Tampa now it seems.
Brisebois trying to keep the momentum going amidst roster turnover.
Bouchard plays 72 games and well. I think usage will be 2 way starts with Barrie getting the easy starts and Ceci the hard ones
Ceci will not suck like most think he will
Mcleod 3rd line center who will look good but lack points
Holloway will play 25 games in Ahl but will be too good to keep down and will take a roster spot
Benson lost on waivers
Marody waivers
Lagesson waivers
Broberg Ahl
Samurokov Ahl first callup
all else Ahl
Bouchard – I expect he plays every day and Tip even spoke about him working his way up the lineup through the year. The org is high on him. Without injury, I would anticipate he will be well clear of 25 points, even if he doesn’t get full PP time – he may force that issue as well.
McLeod – LT nailed what he needs to do in order to provide offence – get to the tough areas, battle, finish his hits on the forecheck – he has struggled with this since junior and its the difference between him being a legit 3C and a 4C/PK guy which is what he was in May. Here is hoping he learns to trust his body and takes that step this season as Ryan is also best suited for 4C and, as of right now (Nuge and Holloway aside), 3C is still a question mark.
Benson – He’s ready in my opinion and he can help the team – will Tip give him a chance with some real NHL skill during camp and exhibition or will he be tied to the likes of Shore and Cracknell and Esposito? Here is hoping that Tip is open to a real competition between Perlini/Benson/Shore for a left wing spot.
Lagesson – I don’t think they’ll keep 8D so, if they come out of camp healthy, Willie will be waived with the Koekkoek addition. I presume he’s first call-up but Samorukov will be in the conversation.
Holloway – He could force his way on to this team – he’s got a mature body and NHL plus skating. Of course, he hasn’t even turned 20 yet and, given the new found depth in the top 9, he isn’t “needed” and the org can give him the development time he needs. We don’t know what that is at this point but I think its more likely than not that he plays in the AHL to start and also in the NHL. We all seem to see him as a top 6 LW but 3C could be a position for him in the future – lots depends on McLeod in that respect.
Marody – he should be in the competition with Shore/Benson/Perlini/Turris for the last two roster spots. Like Benson, a main question is what opportunity will he be provided at camp.
Samorukov – I’d be surprised if he didn’t play NHL games this year – his skill-set is needed on this team. He did “struggle” in the AHL but, at the same time, once he settled in, learned to time his aggression better, etc. he started to play really good hockey in his rookie season and was up in the 2nd pair. I have concern that he’s had two major injuries in two pro seasons.
Broberg – He will shine at camp like he always does (and like high skilled fast/big players always do). He’s well down the depth chart as far as NHL-readiness right now but, now that he’s in North America, I anticipate he will excel and his development pace will take off. That big ice over there mitigates his best weapon, his speed and his transporting of the puck. His size and speed is more material on the smaller ice – can’t wait to see how he progresses this year.
Berglund – well, he’s fourth on the right shot depth chart. I would imagine that, as of now, Russell on his off-side is the first injury cover but here is hoping that Berglund has a solid start to his North American career and will enter that conversation.
If this team can somehow get Konovalov to juice up on those Russian vitamins and turn into the Wall of Valov that would sure remedy some problems.
I’m just saying Konovolav is one inch shorter and three pounds lighter than Tretiak.
True but not really relevant given the difference in style that goalies play these days & how much more accurate the shooters are.
I always love a good game:
Bouchard – 82 – 19:00 average TOI/game
McLeod – 60 – 12:00
Benson – 40 – 10:00
Lagesson – 50 – 17:00
Holloway – 10 – 14:00
Marody – 10 – 8:00
Berglund – 10 – 14:00
Samurokov – 10 – 16:00
I think that’s the extent of the recalls. I doubt we lose anyone to waivers, though injuries are always unpredictable.
I don’t want to brag, but I was pretty bang on with my predictions on that McDavid guy.
I’m very glad Bouch is training with nurse
For players with NHL skill, NHL level fitness is the jump they need to take for the rigours of a full season at a high level
I was hoping Keith would do the same for Bear, then I read he trains like Thoroughgood drinks and well….
Thoroughgood”
George?
Or however you spell it!
I like Bouch training with Nurse as well but, if I remember correctly, Bouch’s high fitness level last season was notable – i don’t think fitness level was an issue for Bouch but the point is valid in general – this is a reason so many 2nd tier type prospects perform much better in their 2nd AHL seasons.
Bouch- stays
Mcleod – stays
Benson – 40
Lags -25
Holloway- 4
Marody-3
Skinner -5
The rest zero this year.
Bouchard – 74 games, ends up as 2nd pair RD
Mcleod – 77 games, surprises everyone, 3rd C and pisscutter extraordinaire.
Benson – 39 games, victim of circumstance and Tippett’s blender.
Lagesson – Waiver loss at end of preseason.
Holloway – 60 games, blows the doors off, Calder votes.
Marody – Waiver loss at end of preseason. Changes name to Slim Pickins Jr. and starts a C&W band.
Samorukov – 26 games, gets a couple stretches to get prepped for 22/23 season Top 6.
Broberg – 0 games in the NHL, does surprisingly well in Bakersfield, in the lineup for 22/23.
Skinner – 11 games, Both Koskinen and Smith suffer various injuries.
Konovalov – 0 in the NHL, finishes season 1A to Skinner’s 1B in AHL, makes presence know in a big way 22/23 season.
Berglund – 2 games with Oilers towards end of season while line up is rested for playoffs.
Bonus :
Lavoie – 5 game cup of coffee for a surprise, 20+ goal outburst in Bakersfield.
If McLeod and Holloway both perform as described, subject to goaltending, this team has the best forward group in the NHL and will be competing for the Stanley Cup.
Playoff bound yes, Cup material? No, not unless they upgrade the goalie position in a major way. No way Smith/Koskinen duo gets them to the Finals.
And as for best forward group in the NHL? Maybe in your opinion, the team’s going to have growing pains with the youngsters.
1) I did say “subject to goaltending”
2) Yes, I would expect growing pain for the youngsters but the statement was prefeced on:
Mcleod – 77 games, surprises everyone, 3rd C and pisscutter extraordinaire.
Holloway – 60 games, blows the doors off, Calder votes.
Add the above the McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Jesse, Kailer, Foegele, etc.
Mellow out man, just putting my thoughts out there, didn’t mean them to be taken as the gospel truth or raise your dander.
no danders are raised, I’m just discussing the post and talking about the team.
Bouchard = 82 games if healthy
McLeod = around 30 games rotating through the bottom 6
Benson = I wanna say either 82 games or <=2 games then traded/waived
Lagesson = <20 games, rotating with Russell and Koekkoek
Holloway = 0 games
Marody = <=15 games mostly in the first half of the season
Samorukov = 0
Broberg = 0 games
Skinner = 0 games, if Koskinen is moved then <5 games
Konovalov = 0 games
Berglund = <5 games
Niemelainen = 0 games
Got my <‘s and >’s mixed up -_-
Bouchard – barring injury he plays every game
Samorukov – 30 games
Broberg – 8 games
Berglund – 2 games
Lagesson – lost to waiver claim
Niemalainen – 0 games
McLeod – 30 games (I need to see offence)
Benson – 60 games (like everybody I am not sure they will be with the Oilers)
Holloway – 25 games
Lavoie – 2 games
Marody – 0 games
Skinner – 3 games
Konavalov – 0 games
A lot of this depends upon deployment imo. There is no ‘real’ 3C on this team but a lot of flexibility in how Tippett could construct his lines. If Ryan cannot hold serve as 3C & McLeod stumbles does the long rumoured 3 scoring lines become a possibility 30 games into the season?
Hyman – McDavid – Kassian
Foegele – Draisaitl – Yamomoto
Holloway – Nuge – Puljujarvi
Shore – Ryan – Archibald
In passing I would note that it is a nice looking group of prospects considering the positions already occupied by long term contracts or RFA’s.
This team is getting close to having all positions occupied by guys made for the role they play in.
I won’t be surprised if next year’s 1st is traded for a goalie at some point this season.
Allan Walsh (@walsha) Tweeted:
What a story! Oakland Athletics analyst/astrophysicist brings her expertise to pitching. https://t.co/EpRL4rN69y
https://twitter.com/walsha/status/1426580019363540994?s=20
Very informative piece by Michael Russo and Katie Strang:
https://theathletic.com/2767479/2021/08/14/nhlpa-strongly-encourages-players-to-get-vaccinated-warns-of-potential-loss-of-pay/
NHLPA is reading the players that if an unvaccinated player is unable to play or causes issues for the team’s normal operations, pay could be withheld – not finalized yet but it seems to be moving towards that.
Lets also not forget that, while the border is opening, unvaccinated arrivals in to Canada still need to quarantine – the recent exemptions the NHL has received may not be coming.
85% of NHL players are vaccinated
I get the timelines crossed, but I remember when the young trio of Cogs, Gags n Nilsson looked like world beaters and I kinda suspected Pitkanen was fueling a lot of that from the blue line. Turns out I was right. Next moment he was gone.
Also remember that stretch where Brodziak, Glencross and Huggi Bear were good for a goal a game, and I thought what an amazing competence advantage to have your low minutes fourth line always cashing. So of course they let Glencross go first chance.
Those Oilers.
Bouchard – 82 games plays the last 20 as 2RHD
Benson – 60 games the team looks at Foegele/Hyman as a RW
McLeod – 20 games, not physical and no scoring, Shore plays 4C
Marody – 30 games but is the 13/14 forward all year
Holloway- 25 games become the 3C
Lagesson – 5 games, it become clearer he is not the future
Samorukov – 25 games – Ceci helps him breaking
Konovalov – dresses for 10 games plays 3
The rest no so much this year
Thank you! I’ll try to remember and revisit at the end of the year.
I suspect that Pitlick may have had a more substantial NHL career if injuries in his prime pro development years didn’t derail him.
I wonder if the same will be said about Benson (although his injuries were in his junior days.
It’s going to be hard to watch Pitlick probably do well in Calgary. Him and Slepyshev were favourites of mine.
Ditto ?
I’m glad Ken Holland is on the record as stating that his preference to let young players percolate outside the NHL is in large part driven by a desire to not yoyo these young assets. To bring them up when he believes they are ready to stay up. Because Bouchard is not necessarily the lock we make him out to be, rising up the ranks to be a lock for a top 4 position by mid season. There will be ups and downs, but Hollands approach will force Tippett to find a way to bring Bouchard along despite the ups and downs.
I can see Tippetts top priority in training camp and in the early season being finding the right partner to play along side Bouchard. I could see that being Duncan Keith.
The reason they could afford to trade Bear is because Bouchard is taking his spot.
Bear hasn’t been replaced. They duplicated part of Barrie.
I think Bouchard is here and he is here to stay. He will have his ups and downs for sure but Tippett/Playfair will have to play him through those.
Holland’s stated preference will likely keep Holloway out of the NHL to start – lots of top 9 options on this team and better to start him in the AHL, let him get used to the pro game, gain confidence as a pro and bring him up than to thrust him in to the best league in the world with zero pro experience on to a team with immense pressure to win.
The door isn’t closed on Holloway breaking camp with the team but i anticipate he starts as a Condor.
Holloway for all the skills that he has, has not shown he can play a grinding game against men. Lots of AHL time (a full year?) will allow him to grow physically, mentally and learn the pro game. Even with injuries, I do not see him even getting a sniff before the new year.
Hollaway was hurt in the WJC I think a lot of folks are going off of that viewing. He’s at least 203 pounds where exactly does he need to bulk up. He didn’t look physically challenged in the Collage game that features players that are older and have grown into their bodies.
And how old do you think the university group are? I would say they are definitely a jump in maturity and physical size. An extra year playing in the AHL however will in my opinion be of great value!
JFJ.
I know.
A painful a memory for you as JFK?
I was alive when JFK was assassinated but don’t remember it.
JFJ should never have been a second round pick. 133rd in QMJHL scoring with 33 pts in 67 games (11 pts NHLe) in his draft year. Really bad scouting / drafting decision.
There are far too many “player xxx should not have been a 2nd round pick” in that Era of oiler drafting
See ‘Moroz, Mitch’.
Musil at top of 2nd round with a couple seemingly much more obvious better bets on board.
If Bouchard isn’t ready to hit the ground running he and us are in trouble
I have stated in the past that the Koekkoek signing would have a cascading affect on the TOI and therefore development of the AHL LD that have such promise (Sammy, Broberg). A quick read on the ol’ Al Gore with respect to player development provided an interesting perspective about this situation. The following paraphrases from several articles.
One can assume fairly reasonably that Wild Bill and Koekkoek will have trained to the nth degree this summer – they are playing for their NHL lives after all. Assuming no injuries in camp, one will be sent down to the Condors. Both these guys are really good hockey players, good enough to have played in the NHL. The young guns (Sammy, Broberg et al) will have a first hand look at what it really takes as far as skill and training to just be a bubble NHLer, let alone a fulltime player.
So, having an NHL ‘bubble’ guy on the AHL roster will provide the NHL team with a really good callup in case of injuries and provide visual evidence to the rookies of what it takes to make the NHL.
A bit different situation but this reminds of the influence Sekera had on Bear when he was rehabbing his knee injury.
I am really happy with the look of the Left side D, but for as much depth there is, unless there is early injury, it is set up for a culling. That could be any of Russell or Lagesson to waivers or a trade, or Koekkoek in the same situation, but chances are, unless he gets destroyed in TC by 2 of the youngsters, including Lagesson, he is at least the 7th Dman.
With Russell and Lagesson with 1 yr each and Keith and KK with 2 yrs remaining, it sets up well with Sammy having 1 yr, Niemelainen with 2 yrs (can someone confirm this – it might only be 1 yr) and Broberg with 3 yrs until waiver eligibility, it does offer a lot of flexibility.
Hopefully they do get a clearer picture on defense prospects this year for sure.
Hope they get a good look at samorukov if opportunity presents itself and if kid can carry water it would be massive if we could possibly open next year with:
Nurse (8 years) Bouchard
Samorukov barrie (heavy PP use)
Kk ceci
Lagesson
(With broberg being next prospect in line if he acclimatizes and owns AHL by end of this year).
I’m probably too excited about samorukov.
I also am pretty confident Bouchard’s seeing eye wrist/snap shot that not only get on net but are beauty for tips is better option than barrie wind up slappers, that more often than not don’t get through bodies, sooner than later on PP…but nothing wrong with the kid having to take it away from barrie.
By ‘open next year’ do you mean 2021 – 2022 or 2022 – 2023 seasons?
2022.
I have a feeling goal differential 5×5 of nurse with Bouchard will end up showing he’s an irrefutable better option on top pair by years end. I was blown away by the kids calm and savvy with puck on his stick.
Bouchard on 1st pairing after 1 year of fulltime NHL experience is not that much of a stretch having seen what he has done in the past and the two guys he has to pass.
Sammy has potential, as does Broberg, but being second pairing after what may be very limited NHL time this year is a stretch. Also, did Keith retire?
2022 – 2023 Opening NIght
Nurse – BouchBomb
Keith – Ceci
[insert name here] – Barrie (First PP)
Going to be a fight to see who elevates to 3LD to start that season
Not going to lie I forgot about Keith being 2 years.
I like idea of ceci calming water for prospect but forgot all about Keith obviously having the cover.
We have 10 million dollars in vet defenseman that don’t kill penalties and need a vet presence on their other side…
I assume you mean Barrie/Keith?
Keith does PK (#2 minutes on the Hawks last year), though his results haven’t been great.
I’d be very surprised if he’s not a regular PKer for the Oilers this season. I’m less sure how his results will look.
But at the same time, you figured that Larson was not a good second pairing for 4M a year so…not sure what to say.
The man has talent reminds me of a young Larry Murphy. The biggest takeaway in the limited games he played was his strength in the corners. Also bring able to box out the opponent in front of the net properly.
Babysitting Barrie on the second pairing is a big ask!
Sam Gagner’s rookie season made you think the Oilers had found their next franchise player.
Forty-nine points, none of which account for how dynamite he was in the shootout – I recall some of it those goals as jaw-dropping.
The conclusion to the season had you cheering for the next-generation plucky MacT team.
Your NHLe, RE, and Projections are top drawer.
I like to see how they fit with my view of how Coaches and Managers make the choices they do.
A few things jump out at me.
One is, we sometimes talk about why prospect goalies don’t get the same learn-on-the-fly, opportunities as non-goalies. And we conclude that it’s because the Goalie position is so key to team success and can’t afford anything other than proven assets.
I think it provides a certain insight. Many NHL Coaches and GM’s feel this same way about non-goalies (more so than the consensus here). For these Coaches and GM’s, every top 6 dman and every top 9 (12?) forward carries a heavy expectation for pro level experience and dependability. The way a newbie goalie prospect makes us nervous is the same way a newbie forward/dman makes NHL Coaches/Gm’s nervous.
I believe it’s the reason there is gap between our desire to see the likes of Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg, Samorukov, Benson,etc and the Coaches desire to play the likes of Chaisson, Archibald, Shore.
It explains the additions of Keith, Ceci, Koekkoek, with term, and why Russell got a two year contract.
(Forgot to include Barrie to the “vets with term” list above)
All of this leads to your point “there’s a lot on the line for the GM and coach in Edmonton.”
An early exit from the playoffs and Dave Tippett is sent packing. With the exception of Evan Bouchard, I think Tippett is going to lean heavily on his veterans.
He probably views players like JP and Yamo, like we view the prospects. JP, Yamo, McLeod and Bouchard is all the uncertainty Tippett can handle.
I think your projections have this fact surrounded.
I think Bouch is in the NHL to stay. Sammy and Broberg spend the whole year in the AHL unless there is a really bad run on injuries. Holloway spends the whole year in the AHL which is best for him. McLeod spends some time in both AHL and NHL. I’m hoping we add a cheap veteran 4C. Neither Kono or Skinner play NHL games. Benson gets his shot at the NHL and hangs on as a 4th liner/13F. If not, more time in the AHL does him no good and he is waived and possibly picked up by another team.
There is absolutely no point for Benson in AHL at this point, I agree. I hope the kid gets his 50 games here but will be cheering for him if it happens elsewhere.
I know that I love and rate the Oiler prospects higher than other team’s players, but Bouchard is the real deal. I would not be in the least surprised if he ends up being the best or second best dman from the 2018 draft. Hughes and Boqvist are both hobbits (for defencemen) and as history has shown, hobbits are not be really effective in the playoffs.
Great that Barrie and Ceci are on the team to keep him down on the 3rd pair until he forces his way up. Don’t want to have another Jultz situation.
I’d be very surprised if Samorukov doesn’t get games – even a normal amount of injuries likely gets to him on the depth chart and that doesn’t even account for him passing Lagesson/Russell/Koekkoke which he may.
Also, lets not forget, even a right side injury may effect this as, unless Berglund get’s NHL games, Russell/Koekkoek shifting over is the first right side D fill in – depleting the left side depth.
I’m not as high on McLeod’s offensive upside as most but I do think that he is likely a very serviceable 4C right now, even without progression in his game from May (and there should be progression). Problem is neither he nor Ryan are 3Cs right now