Is This the Real Life? Is This Just Fantasy?

by Lowetide
Photo by Mark Williams

So now the waivers and demotions in front of cut-down day have happened, with William Lagesson and Kyle Turris waived, Stuart Skinner sent to Bakersfield. Based on reports, we’ll see Philip Broberg recalled, then sent down, Turris will be back once he clears waivers and by Wednesday night there will be one or two rookies on the roster.

There are still some things to finalize, like Colton Sceviour’s status which may be tied to Zack Kassian’s health and offers from the hinterland, so there are some question marks. Nothing that approaches Anton Burdasov’s epic story, which I’m sure we all remember.

What does it all mean for Tyler Benson?



At the beginning of the 1987 season, Tim Raines was not part of the Montreal Expos roster. MLB had this weird rule where a player who didn’t sign with his team before a certain date couldn’t return until May 1. That’s one month into the season.

This was the winter after the clubs colluded (paid a heavy price later on, $280 million) in not signing free agents and Raines was one. I believe the league did it again the following season.

I watched the Expos closely that spring, wondering who would win the LF job. Replacing Raines was impossible, in 1986 he won the NL batting championship and scored 91 runs. Manager Buck Rodgers chose Alonzo Powell, who hit .195 and scored three runs during April 1987.

I made a note of Powell’s demotion, and in my mind wondered if he would see the majors again. He did, in 1991 with the Seattle Mariners. He hit better, hung around longer, ultimately didn’t have a major league career. The guy I thought would win the job, Billy Moore, didn’t have a career either.

The point of my story (I don’t want you to spend all day looking) is that the Expos had one of the best LF’s in the game, didn’t sign him because all the mlb teams agreed to offer short term deals, then spent approximately zero hours looking for a real replacement for the first month of the season. The lesson of this story comes at the end of the 1987 season, when Montreal finishes 91-71 with help from a dream season by the now-signed Raines. Expos finished four games behind the St. Louis Cardinals, going 8-12 in April and 83-59 the rest of the way. Montreal’s winning percentage May to December put them in a tie for the Cardinals record over the entire season. Oh, those Expos.

The moral of the story: Get your act together man, and if you have a hole that is going to be there for a month, find a worthy solution.


Benson could get waived later in the week (we really don’t know where this is headed) but at this point he joins Kailer Yamamoto as part of the graduating crop of 2018-19 AHL rookies. Stuart Skinner and Cooper Marody remain in the organization. Logan Day, Shane Starrett, Cam Hebig, Tyler Vesel, Jake Kulevich and Dylan Wells have moved along.


It sounds like Kassian will be ready soon, so the IR list (LTIR in some cases) will be Oscar Klefbom, Josh Archibald, Dmitri Samorukov, Dylan Holloway and Alex Stalock. Colton Sceviour remains unsigned, and that could still impact Benson or Ryan McLeod.

It could come down to Benson versus McLeod. McLeod to Bakersfield would be my preference, if only because he didn’t push during preseason and 20 games in the minors might get him back to where he was last year when the team recalled him. Jay Woodcroft does wonders for young prospects pushing to the NHL. We’ll find out in the next 24 hours or so which way the wind blows.

I don’t expect Edmonton to make any waiver claims.


  1. LC Alex Barre-Boulet, Tampa Bay. He has a fine resume, is young enough (24) to play for years as a productive NHL player, and is averaging around 25 goals per 82 AHL games. Someone will grab him early in the process. This isn’t exactly like the Habs losing Carol Vadnais to the Seals, but ABB is a talent.
  2. LD Jacob Larsson, Anaheim. Good size, he’s a puck mover, his possession results relative to teammates isn’t strong. Puck IQ suggests he played fairly well versus elites. I always liked him.


Happy Thanksgiving! This is Ziggy. She is 10 this month. Mom’s dog, but I love her anyway. Ziggy has miles of personality, loves to run and beat the tar out of her hedgehog, which she has owned since the day we brought her home. She is a dear friend, has helped me through all kinds of troubles and been a constant source of joy during the pandemic. How does one describe a dog as anything other than a full and feature member of the family? Can’t be done. She is ruining the cushions of the sofa. Don’t care. Owns me. Don’t care. Absolutely joy. Spoiled rotten of course, but she was never going to be a hunting dog and wouldn’t be any good on a dogsled team. She’s right where she should be, wrapped up in my coyote blanket snoozing. What a dog!

The family is well, my kids have been working and then not working during Covid-19 and the coming up on 20 months of strange life. If you need data entry or someone to MacGyver your computer glitch, or the best retail woman this side of the Pecos, drop me a line. They’re good kids, I so wish their social lives weren’t a train wreck right now. It’s been ages since I embarrassed my daughter with my in-house wardrobe in front of her friends, and honestly I miss it.

Mrs. Lowetide is fine, she’s a rock. I’m surprised she has shown such patience around me these months together all day. The house is her domain, I just show up for supper and to dominate the evening television viewing.

I hope to see Connor McDavid play hockey while I’m in the building this year, I hope to take my beautiful wife out for dinner and wine. I hope my kids can hang with their friends and won’t even complain if they’re in the basement to all hours playing Warcraft World.

I hope you are finding your way, too. My Dad used to tell me about the dirty 30’s, polio, World War 2. He didn’t tell me about the worry, and the isolation and the waiting. I think the mind can become an enemy in times like these, we need to fill it with the things that matter and do our hearts good. I wish that for you and your family.


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“Please Mr Death March™ we were just a little bit late.”

Hunter1909 – “Piss off”



Site back up!

Technical team also recalibrated the countdown clock! Come and see how much time there is left!




The technical team has been notified, but with the deadline coming in the next 48 hours the situation looks grave…

thank you for your cooperation


Wonderful uplifting words LT. Happy Thanksgiving everyone

Foege Foegele Torpe

I very Happy Thanksgiving to you both!

Last edited 4 days ago by Foege Foegele Torpe

OK, here is how I understand the current (and future) cap situation.

The Oilers actually have zero cap space at the moment as they were over the cap and used Klefbom and Stalock on LTIR to get compliant (and set their current LTIR reserve pool).

They are at apx $86MM with a “27 player cap roster” – the 23 players on the active roster plus Archie (IR), Lagesson (IR), Stalock (LTIR) and Klefbom (LTIR).

Of course, it was the Klefbom and Stalock LTIR placements that created the apx $5M in LTIR reserves.

Tomorrow, they will place Archie on LTIR which will open up $1.5M in LTIR reserves (and create the amount of cap space)

They will, presumably, recall Turris and assign Broberg which will take that cap space down to apx $1.2M.

Assuming that Lagesson is assigned once healthy, that will take their cap space up to $2M (apx).


I read an interview with Ethan Bear a couple days ago. He mentioned that he likes Carolinas system. He said that it is natural for him and he has to think less and can just play. I wonder if there is anything to this. Does Edmonton have a complicated system for the d?


Different teams have different systems. Many players have mentioned how the defensive systems and the PK system (in particular as it relates to up the ice pressure) are different in Edmonton than previous teams (Ryan mentioned the difference in the PK system the other day).

I have no idea if its more complicated and, if so, if that’s a problem but I will posit that the PK has been MUCH more effective since Playfair instituted his structure so I’ll trust him and his systems.

rich tm

It’s certainly better than it was pre-Tippet. They were 2nd in Tippet’s first season, 9th last season.

They were 28th, 17th, 15th, 25th and 30th in the 5 years previous.

May just be the player and what they are used to.


Of course, Tippett came with Playfair who is primarily responsible for the PK. Personnel on the PK changed but so did the structure and I give Playfair plenty of credit – the PK had been BAD for a long time, as you point out.


Bill Daly did an interview with the Athletic:

One thing I found interesting is that, for revenues, assuming full buildings (as contemplated) and no stoppages they are projecting revenues to surpass the last full season (2018/19) and what they were projecting in 2019/20 before it got shut down.

Now, of course, the players are still paying back the owners so this won’t have the cap go up by more than one million yet, but its a good start.

Harpers Hair

Emerald City Hockey (@EmeraldCityHky) Tweeted:
Dave Hakstol says Johansson, Oleksiak, McCann, Jarnkrok, and Donskoi are all in NHL COVID-19 Protocol


Happy Thanksgiving to LT & everyone(including the database connection gremlins)


Of note, Petrov finished without any goals or points today but did have 7 shots (and took four faceoffs, winning 1) and was even in a 3-2 win.

Oshawa got blown out 7-3 – Tulio did have that one PP assist and a couple of shots but finished -4 and 1 for 7 in the circle.

Munny 2.0


Munny 2.0

Whew. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Especially the hamsters on the wheel running the database server.


The #Oilers opening roster submission is $4.88M Over Cap w/ 23 players (13F/8D/2G) + Archibald/Lagesson IR & Klefbom/Stalock LTIR, setting that as LTIR Pool.

This is $68K from max possible LTIR w/ Klefbom/Stalock $4.952M

W/ Lagesson injured, could not be demoted. If healthy & demoted, LTIR pool could be w/in $5K of LTIR max

Can now add Archibald to LTIR, making pool $6.38M (how much can exceed cap), send Broberg down & recall Turris, & have $1.24M of Cap Space remaining.


Thanks OP!
So does that mean we have 7.62m of non accruable space??


Shane, no, that are in to LTIR reserves (and over their Adjusted Cap Accrual Threshold) – they won’t accrue any cap space when they are using LTIR reserves (essentially all season).

They will have apx $1.2M in “full season” cap space to start – which means, at any point in the season, they could acquire, say, an apx $2M player (the new player’s cap minus the cap of the player they move off the roster) without moving out additional cap.

This also allows for in-season adjustments, for example, if, say, Nuge gets banged up and will be out for 10 days – they can IR him and call up a player – they have the cap room for it.

Also, the above is with Lagesson on IR – he counts on the cap (essentially a 24 man cap roster) so, once he’s healthy and assigned to Bakersfield, that will open up another $750K and they’ll have apx $2M of cap space.

Nothing will accrue to bank though.


No surprises (except Lagesson):

Turris assigned to AHL

Broberg re-called to NHL

Klefbom and Stalock on LTIR

Lagesson on IR

Samorukov/Holloway/Archibald on “injured non-roster list”

Only surprise is Lagesson but Tip did allude to him dealing with an injury in his media avail this morning.

Randle McMurphy

Sleigh bells ring…are you listening


Happy thanksgiving to all but especially LT. This blog has been a great read for me since its early years, but it’s especially been a welcome distraction during the pandemic.

I have a good feeling about the Oilers this year (and I say that as someone who’s inclined to pessimism). I think our goaltending will be solid, actually. I predict another strong season from Smith, and a good rebound year from Koskinen. I think there probably will be some wobble on the 2nd pair D to start the year, but I don’t think Keith is done yet and they’ll sort that out (Ceci or Bouch). Forwards are undeniably improved over last year, and Foegle/Ryan look like (finally!) an answer to the black hole of GF% in the bottom 6.

In addition, when you look at the Oilers relative to our divisional competition for top spot… I see Vegas as poised for a decline. If you take a look at the heart of their order and age structure, especially at forward – Stone (29), Paciorety (32 about to turn 33), Karlsson (28), Marchessault (30, about to turn 31), etc. If forwards generally peak ages 24-27, the best they can really hope for with that group is that they hold on to their level of play. Their defence is also mostly on the wrong side of 30. They’re going to start dropping off soon, possibly this year. I think the Oilers are going to win the division, actually.



Hunter1909 Death March™

Bulging Twine


After scoring 3 goals in 3 pre-season games for the #Leafs, Nick Ritchie has been added to TSN’s projected Team Canada Olympic roster.

Bulging Twine

VCR may be missing Boeser on Wednesday.
Chiasson (although unsigned, practicing on that line)

Our first two opponents missing a good winger as Coleman is suspended

Harpers Hair

Just PP drills.





 Reply to OriginalPouzar

 October 11, 2021 11:47 am

Without looking into it, will the oilers be cap complaint on day 1 so they accrue cap space during the year, or are they in the more limiting scenario?

They will be cap compliant but using LTIR reserves to go over the cap (and, by definition, over their Adjusted Cap Accrual Threshold) – they won’t accrue any cap space daily.


Tulio with a 1st period goal as Oshawa is up 2-1.

No points for Petrov in the first period but 3 shots on net. He did take a minus as North Bay gave up a shortie and trail 1-0 after 1.


Of note, Kass did skate on his own today so that is a good sign.

Not sure if he’ll play on Wed or if he’s even close.

Tip did say that Sceviour will take his spot if he can’t go so I presume that its all but a certainty that he’ll be signed.

So, assuming Turris is assigned and then re-called for Wed, that would mean either Kass is on IR or McLeod is re-assigned.

I guess they could keep Turris off the roster but I presume he’s 4RW to start the season.


Daniel Nugent-Bowman
· 5m
Dave Tippett said Kyle Turris remains with the team now that he’s cleared waivers. Tippett said Devin Shore will start as the fourth-line centre because he outplayed Ryan McLeod. Brendan Perlini at 4LW because he outplayed Tyler Benson. Perlini-Shore-Turris to start.


No surprise here and this makes perfect sense given camp performances – per Jack Michaels::

Dave Tippett says as of now, McLeod & Benson will be the odd guys out for Opening Night, with Shore winning the 4th-line centre spot & Perlini on his left side

Harpers Hair

David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) Tweeted:
Montreal claims Adam Brooks off waivers from Toronto.
Seattle claims Alex Barre-Boulet from Tampa.
Philly claims Patrick Brown from Vegas.
Washington claims Axel Jonsson-Fjallby from Buffalo.


I find it a little bit strange that Buffalo is waiving players a team like Washington sees value in picking up – not that I know anything about the player but it seems strange given their relative skill levels.

Harpers Hair

Pretty sure Buffalo isn’t interested in winning any time soon.

In this case, Buffalo had claimed the player from Washington earlier so he is just going back to where he started.


Neither is Vancouver


Ah, thanks. I didn’t know there was an earlier transaction.

Bulging Twine

ESPN (replacing NBC this year) are going to have on-ice cameras for shootouts


I would have time for Old Man Bobby Ryan taking Sceviour’s job from him. He was excellent in a mentor bottom 6 role for Detroit last year.

Bulging Twine

Opening day rosters set by 3pm (MST)


Both Turris and Lagesson clear.

Oilers don’t claim anyone – well, at least not successfully.

Bulging Twine

Adam Larsson given an ‘A’ in Seattle

Bulging Twine

Eberle too

(Giordano C)


I would have been surprised if Larsson wasn’t given an “A”.


If only because, without an A, he would just be Dm Lrsson.


No surprise to see Koekkoek ahead of Russell. Not enthused with the “load up” and I really hope that isn’t the case to start Wed night:

Oilers lines and pairings this morning:
(Rotating fourth line)

Russell (rotating in throughout)





At this point it would be a surprise to see 97 and 29 on separate lines to start game one.

I don’t agree with it, but I don’t think Tippet would play them together for the last 4 periods of exhibition, then continue to have them practice together, only to split them up for the game when it matters. Wouldn’t make any sense

Either way, we’ll be too much to handle for the Canucks, so just win!


Of note, McDavid/Drai did play together to finish the regular season earlier this year and then apart for game 1 of the playoffs (apart didn’t last through the series mind you).

Randle McMurphy

I think it’s been suggested that’s it’s a home and away scenario.


No Kass or Nuge on ice today – Nugent Bowman saying it sounds like Nuge is sick.

Turris and Sceviour both skating.


For clarity – non Covid illness for Nuge.


Don’t like the sounds of Nuge being sick


This year’s RSV is a real ass kicker too. My kids did okay, just tired, but my 68 year old father-in-law was in hospital for a couple of days. All that smoking didn’t help his lungs.


Nuge is trying his best to get the coach to play Drai as 2C 😉

Randle McMurphy

Happy Thanksgiving Allan. Thanks for Sharing.

It’s incredible to me how it seems like at least 80% of human experience is shared.

Your notes on Ziggy remind of a quote I read recently; “Try and be the person your dog thinks you are.”

Last edited 5 days ago by Randle McMurphy

Sadly, I’m pretty sure I’m the person my cat thinks I am.


I think the mind can become an enemy in times like these, we need to fill it with the things that matter and do our hearts good.

Wise words.

Thank you LT for everything you put into this little corner of sanity.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Randle McMurphy

Could you sign Sceviour after the season starts? Would that aid our cap juggling in any way?


If they’re worried about losing him to another team they could sign him to an AHL deal first, then sign the NHL contract when the time is right.

Not sure on where they’re at cap wise and maximizing LTIR.


i don’t think you sign an NHL vet to an AHL contract and block him from playing in the NHL. I’m sure there’s an element of professional curtesy there.


I don’t think there is any cap issue here.

If Kass is healthy and they want to sign Sceviour, they can simply send McLeod down (and the cap difference is minimal).

If Kass is on IR and they want to keep 23 on the roster, without doing the math, I believe they have plenty of room with the ability to place either (or both) of Stalock and/or Archie on LTIR.

I believe, depending on how they structure it, they should have about $2M plus in cap space (via LTIR reserves) – they won’t accrue that cap space (as they’ll be over the normal cap but under their inflated cap) but I don’t think timing of a Sceviour sign will be an issue.


Confirmation for Reja that Petrov is indeed playing top line (and, of note, another right shot “shooter” playing the left wing):

North Bay Battalion
Game 03 – 10/11/21 

Petrov – Jackson – Coe
Currie – Arnsby – A. Christopoulos
Van Steensel – Wakely – Sima
Outwater – Podolioukh – Stevens

Rose – Winslow
Mathurin – Nelson
P. Christopoulos – Lukin


Bulging Twine

Coe 6’5″ Winger. SJ 4th round pick in ’20 (unsigned). 19 years old (Dec 01)
57 points in 60GP in draft year
5 points in 17gp last year in the A

Jackson Oct 02 undrafted 6’2″ (Petrov is 6’2″ as well – big line)
Didn’t play last year (his draft year)
22 pts 62 gp the year before


If possible keep the updates coming don’t let a couple Nimrods wreck it for the rest of us.


By the way, Nimrod means ” Mighty Hunter” , so you may want to reword your post.

Bulging Twine

If anyone is waiting on the waivers, I am pretty sure I heard that the time for waivers has changed. It is no longer noon ET. I can’t find what it is now though. Probably Noon Pacific or Mountain.

Bulging Twine

yep, it’s 2pm ET

Randle McMurphy

To answer Freddy; It’s both. Real Life and Fantasy are one in the same. Lived simultaneously.


Of note, Thomas Mazura did score a goal for Providence yesterday – the winning goal in a 5-1 win. He’s played in all 3 games (all three blowout victories) and that was his first point. A couple shots on net here and there and in the first game he took 5 draws (won 3) but none in the last two games.

I don’t think the USHL played last season and I don’t think he played back home – I think this young man may have missed an entire season of hockey.


When thinking about potential Richard candidates for this year, with Matthews wrist (late surgery and it looks like he may miss the beginning of the season) and Ovie now missing two straight end of camp practices (and injury likely a bigger issue with him generally as he ages), the door is widening is it not?

Drai is the goal scorer but, if McDavid wants a Richard, he could probably get a Richard.

Do the Oilers tandem jump right to the top of the favorites?


Mikka Z. if he doesn’t get off to his usual slow start?


Of note, it’s now out that Matthews will miss at least the first 3 games. I don’t imagine that his wrist is going to be 100% for 79 games. I do think he is currently the best goal scorer in the league but I don’t think he’s going to have a career type season.

Harpers Hair



Call your bookie – place some units!


Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody.

Hunkered down with the rellies in Abbotsford, while family across AB share pics via a text thread we’ve dubbed the pipeline.

Turkey is good.

Last edited 5 days ago by MushedPeas

For those that follow and actively follow the OilKings – it looks like Jake Neighbours will be starting the season in the NHL. I suspect that’s a fairly big blow to the local club, at least to start.


Seravelli with bold predictions:

6. The Edmonton Oilers will set a new NHL single season record for power-play conversation rate. The record belongs to the 1977-78 Montreal Canadiens, who hit on 31.9 percent. These Oilers have the fourth-best mark ever at 29.5 percent from 2019-20, and this is their first full season attempt since then. “I haven’t seen a power play like that before,” said three-time Cup winner Duncan Keith.


Hopefully a lethal power play helps keep the goons at bay! (looking at you Flamers) No secret that certain teams will attempt to play the “physical” game against the Oil. I know there are many who are down on Kass but he has an important place in this line up that is not overly physical.


He did have a place in this lineup. His head will be telling him to stay out of raucous situations.


Happy Thanksgiving to all! And an enormous thank you to our host for making this place happen, day after day after day, for all these years!

We’re in London ON visiting Buddy Jr. Mrs. Buddy has spent the last three days in nonstop cooking, cleaning and whatnot-ing for the young lad.

Can’t wait for the season to start!


Are you on twitter? If you are can you dm me – same handle as here ‘defmn’. I have a question and Heidi leads me to believe you might have the answer regarding Leon’s PL book.



I’m not, but I’ll get Heidi to pass on my email address.




First episode of the Daily Faceoff Show is streaming live now and they (Seravelli and Mike McKenna) are discussing the five worst tending tandems and the Oilers are not listed!

I’m actually very comfortable with the current tandem and Skinner in behind (should be good if they need somewhat short term cover, 3-4 weeks). I think Mikko is going to be a more solid 1B this season.


Thanks for the feels Lowetide. My favourite part about your blog is the vulnerable prose splashed amongst the Oilers angst.


If the Jays addressed their trainwreck of a bullpen even a few weeks earlier, they make the playoffs. They kept trotting out guys like Dolis and Thornton, and games they were winning suddenly became losses. I think the number of games lost specifically to the bullpen was 13 (I might be wrong) and most of the damage was done in the first two months.


Sure, however, this theory/strategy presumes the goaltending will be a trainwreck, right? Sure, it might be but there really isn’t anything to suggest that will be the case except for the fact that Smith is 5 months older than when he last played a game that counted.


Benson could get waived later in the week (we really don’t know where this is headed) 

I don’t get it. The moves are nothing but positive for Benson, aren’t they?

Holland and the team kept Benson rather than risking waivers on a young player who didn’t actually earn a spot with his play.


Fair enough, though I think it’s highly likely they’d have waived him yesterday (when the risk of a claim is lower) if they were planning to send him out in order to sign Sceviour.


It seems that we’re reading the tea leaves very differently here.


I can agree with all that.

It seems clear to me though that Benson has made the big club and won’t be waived in the short term.

I see that as a real step for the player (or perhaps more accurately for the organization), considering his lackluster play in camp. I see that as a bit of a pleasant surprise.

No question he remains vulnerable in the bigger picture though.


I really think that Benson got a break because he has been in the system. “He didn’t look very good, but we know he is a better player than that.” Someone on a PTO would not get the same benefit of the doubt.


Yes, agreed. Which I’m reading as a significant positive sign for Benson and the organization’s belief in him.


I don’t see Benson being on waivers in the short term. I mean, it would be much easier to try and sneak him through now/today then it would be in a week or two.

Sure, if he’s simply not earning it after a month or two of opportunities, then, ya, try and send him down but I don’t see it happening without him getting some game opportunities.


Yes, that’s how I see it as well.


Happy Thanksgiving to all and thanks to LT for keeping us going daily over the difficult last 20(!) months.

If I don’t have the identical couch to yours, it’s very similar and also being ruined. Alice the Belgian Malinois has been a great addition to the family although (Princess) Leia the mixed Shepherd may disagree as she doesn’t get 100% of the attention and treats anymore.

Daughter is 10 and probably doing better wearing a mask all day in school than I would have, and is now playing Tier 1 soccer. They are really cracking down on parents coaching (“hustle! Hustle hustle hustle!”) from the sidelines so it’s been a good lesson in patience for me. And my wife.

As a lawyer so much of my job is now on Webex/Zoom and its not the same, I’m getting pretty tired of appearing over video. They also say the camera adds 10,000 lbs 😀

Hope everyone is enjoying Thanksgiving!


Thanks for the amazing prose LT. I am sure every person here can relate to some part of it. The house was so empty when we lost our wonderful 10 yr old Leonberger to cancer last May. Luckily, Beau came into our lives and makes us smile, even though he is a 5 month old 75 lb. wrecking ball.


I absolute HATE the new default to WebEx (and similar platforms).

Sure, lets do that for internal calls that would have been in-person meetings 2 years ago but, for regular calls with clients, etc., can’t we just kick it old school and have a damn conference call. We don’t need video for everything.

Wonder Llama

Happy Thanksgiving Ziggy Lowetide and the Puppies from Mars!

Randle McMurphy

Once saw an early draft by Bowie….Ziggy played hedge-hoooog…

No weirder than spiders from mars really…

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