The roster appears set, although Philip Broberg will get sent to the Bakersfield Condors when Kyle Turris gets activated and someone will be leaving the roster when Colton Sceviour signs. I think people are less than thrilled with me for mentioning Tyler Benson as a possible waiver casualty, but it’s Benson or Ryan McLeod (who is a center) as likely demotion candidates. I believe McLeod is likely because there are no waiver issues, but this is a developing story.
- New Lowetide: How Ken Holland is increasing the Oilers’ talent pool, and why fans are nervous about it
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects thrive as junior, college and European seasons begin
- Lowetide: Does Dom Luszczyszyn’s 2021-22 preview mean math hates the Oilers?
- Lowetide: When will the Edmonton Oilers fully embrace analytics?
- Jonathan Willis: How the 2021-22 Oilers mirror their coach’s best teams from the past
- DNB: Maxing out LTIR
- Lowetide: What might Oilers do if Kailer Yamamoto’s goal scoring slump continues?
- DNB: Oilers’ Mikko Koskinen much happier with family by his side again
- Lowetide: Is this Jay Woodcroft’s final year coaching the Bakersfield Condors?
- Lowetide: How could waivers impact Oilers’ roster decisions?
- New DNB: Duncan Keith’s decline, by the numbers and video
- Lowetide: 9 bold predictions for the 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and line chemistry
- New DNB: Oilers training camp invitees tell us what it’s like to face McDavid in practice
- DNB: Oilers training camp observations
- Lowetide: Why Colton Sceviour could be an important addition for the Oilers
- DNB: Derek Ryan Q&A
- Jonathan Willis: How can the Oilers find a long-term solution in net?
- Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, in context
- DNB: Warren Foegele Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers reasonable expectations for 2021-22: Goal differential
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2021-22: Goal scoring
OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
- Goalies Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen
- Left Defensemen Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, Slater Koekkoek, Kris Russell
- Right Defensemen Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, Evan Bouchard
- Center Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan, Devin Shore, Ryan McLeod
- Left Wing Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Brendan Perlini, Tyler Benson
- Right Wing Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian, Kyle Turris
- PTO: Colton Sceviour
This assumes Broberg is sent down and does not assume Sceviour is signed in time to be in the opening night lineup. Coach Dave Tippett has already told us that Benson and McLeod sit on Wednesday.
CORSI REL (DEFENSE)
I’m about to tell you something and will ask you to read it and then forget about it. Thanks.
Long ago, back in the old hippie days, I learned something about defensemen that makes sense every year no matter what the other numbers show.
The metric is five on five Corsi Rel for defensemen. It’s Corsi (shot differential when on the ice) compared to the other defensemen on the team for that season. It had a wild popularity for several years, and then one year nothing rhymed.
People rained down blows on Corsi rel for defensemen, there was blood in the streets up to my ankles, blood in the streets up to my knees.
So, I don’t argue with people about it, but do pay attention to the numbers each season. Ideally, you’d have at least 200 minutes and it’s important to remember there’s a giant difference between early and late preseason games.
Here are the current roster blue and their 2021-22 five on five Corsi rel during preseason:
- Darnell Nurse 79 minutes, 8.36 CF Rel Pct.
- Tyson Barrie 53 minutes, 6.42 CF Red Pct.
- Evan Bouchard 106 minutes, 5.71 CF Rel Pct.
- Slater Koekkoek 53 minutes, 4.46 CF Rel Pct.
- Cody Ceci 83 minutes, -10.64 CF Rel Pct.
- Kris Russell 24 minutes, -10.67 CF Rel Pct.
- Duncan Keith 47 minutes, -11.27 CF Rel Pct.
This isn’t a long track we’re looking at here, but we can say that the Nurse-Barrie combination (30 of Nurse’s minutes came with McDavid) should be rock solid relative to defensive teammates. Evan Bouchard played 29 minutes with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and this pairing did well.
I think we have to wait and see on the Keith-Ceci pairing and do believe Russell will play over Koekkoek at times this year. That isn’t the same as saying I think he’s better, but Russell’s goal suppression numbers are eerie. His GA-60 last season was 1.83, the best number on the Oilers and No. 21 among defenders with 500+ five on five minutes across the league. Coaches value this, Russell will play if healthy. By the way, his CorsiRel Pct in 2020-21 was -4.85, last among Oilers regulars on the blue.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We’re back, hitting the airwaves on a massive day for hockey. At 10, on TSN1260, the Lowdown will talk Seattle Kraken, Edmonton Oilers, Stanley Cup favourites and more with Andy MacNeil, Hockey Analyst for VSIN. We’ll have updates from Rogers, plus discuss MLB playoffs, the NFL weekend and the Elks apparent decision to start looking at next year. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!