It Don’t Mean a Thing (If It Ain’t Got That Swing)

by Lowetide
Photo by Mark Williams

If you watched the Bakersfield Condors on the weekend, it would be easy to walk away with the impression that the Oilers have one future NHL goaltender (Stuart Skinner) and two defensemen (Markus Niemelainen, Phil Kemp), while higher picks (Philip Broberg, Raphael Lavoie) seem awkward or mistake prone.

Age is so important in evaluating prospects, and so is experience in a specific league. Niemelainen is 23, Skinner and Kemp are 22. Broberg is 20, Lavoie just turned 21.

The best way to view a pure AHL rookie is making a note of mistakes early in the year and see how many are solved by mid-season. Evan Bouchard solved a monster number by mid-season 2019-20, Alex Plante (due to injuries) had a more difficult time. Age and experience is huge, especially through the entry deal.

THE ATHLETIC!

Sometimes

Many years ago, maybe 2005, I posted on hfboards about Marc Pouliot (first round pick in 2003) and Kyle Brodziak (seventh-round pick and a full year older) and about how close their offensive output turned out in pro:

  • Kyle Brodziak (age 22) 2006-07: 62 games, 24-32-56 (.903)
  • Marc Pouliot (age 22) 2007-08: 55 games, 21-26-47 (.854)

Of course Brodziak would go on to a more impressive NHL career, but at 22 they were pretty close offensively. Pouliot had injuries and the two men were not completely similar in skill, but had many elements in their games that were a match. The thrust of the HFBoards post was ‘can we recognize the better NHL player in real time, before it happens?’

I’m not a fortune teller, because even though I asked the question, I was squarely in the Pou corner. In fact, you can pick any era of Oilers draft history and identify a player I endorsed who didn’t make it.

That doesn’t make me unique, although posting my picks every day on the internet for 18 years for all to see is somewhat unusual. This isn’t about bragging rights, it’s about predicting the future with myriad elements (injury, opportunity, others) in play.

Comparables:

  • Philip Broberg (20) 2 games, 0-1-1(AHL); Oscar Klefbom (20) 48 games, 1-9-10 (AHL).

Offensively, it shouldn’t be difficult for Broberg (rhymes with Cherry) to keep up with the humble boxcars of a young Klefbom, although Oscar’s PP total (one assist) has already been matched by Broberg. Klefbom was -8 as a rookie in the 49 games during 2013-14 in Oklahoma City, Broberg is 0-1 (-1) goals after two games.

Broberg is mobile and has effective elements to his game (he is a great skater, but also has the ability to separate quickly by stopping and making a quick first step the other way). He doesn’t recognize danger, physical danger, and that’s going to get him hurt. He also appears to be passing to an area, as opposed to being precise, that might be a leftover from the big ice. Last night, he was part of the least effective power play I can recall.

That might sound like a damning list, but it’s actually a group of things that can be overcome. Broberg isn’t going to graduate to the NHL at the same time as many 2019 picks drafted before and after him. Dave Manson has plenty of work to do.

If we get to the mid-season point and we’re still seeing these issues, I’m going to talk about the difference between five years experience and one year’s experience five times. I will tell you the intel received from Sweden before Broberg arrived suggested he needed more time, so there should be no surprise. No need to panic, but you’ll want to see progress as the season rolls along.

  • Raphael Lavoie (20) 19 games, 5-5-10 (AHL); Adam Lowry (20) 64 games, 17-16-33 (AHL).

Lavoie is a pure scorer with size, so when his match is a two-way forward we could be looking at an adjustment in trajectory. I hesitate to use it, because Lavoie’s skill (he’s a marksman) didn’t get a chance to shine in a short AHL rookie season. The nature of the season was also wildly different than any previous one.

I’ll be looking this season for a few things. Has he learned to be in constant motion more often? Lavoie’s style involves plenty of glide, and NHL coaches were hammering that out of the game in the Fred Shero days. Can he be more consistent? I saw him at the opening faceoff last night, and the next time he was really noticeable in the game was a (very) late sequence where he got two shots off. One of them was a stunning chance and I’m shocked he didn’t score. If Lavoie cashes there, I’m trumpeting him, so it’s probably fair to say he’s getting some looks but hasn’t scored a point in two games.

Jay Woodcroft is going with veterans in the high skill moments, Lavoie will need to force his way into that conversation as a more frequent member of the group. Move those feet, get in the scoring zones. I did notice his passing on the weekend, he’s got skill. Is it enough to play top-six in the NHL? A big part of his story is coming this season.

CONCERNS

Based on the weekend, I think Oilers fans should be fairly certain Stuart Skinner could be trusted with the Oilers net a few times this season. If there’s an injury, and he’s forced into a backup role, Edmonton should have enough cover to survive.

Markus Niemelainen would be my choice for recall today. Phil Kemp is travelling at the speed of light to catch him, so may be a recall option by mid-season. Philip Broberg looks uneven and at times unprepared, but he’s going to get fabulous guidance from Dave Manson and I expect we’ll see handsome improvement. Allow me to remind you of the first AHL seasons for Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones:

  • Ethan Bear (20) 2017-18: 37, 6-12-18, 19-27 (-8) EV strength goal differential
  • Caleb Jones (20) 2017-18: 58, 2-15-17, 30-54 (-24) EV strength goal differential

Rookie seasons in the AHL at 20 are not the same as rookie seasons in the AHL at 24. Broberg and Filip Berglund showed us the difference on the weekend. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll kickstart Week 2 of the NHL season with a long look at the Oilers successes over the weekend. We’ll also chat about the players yet to play, and when we’ll see them. Jason Gregor from TSN 1260 will pop by to chat about the Oilers and Elks, we’ll have Clark Judge from Talk of Fame Network to talk about the NFL weekend and Monday Nighter. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Munny 2.0

That’s very sad news on Maksimov. Was hoping he could turn into a 3rd liner who could PK and snipe 15-20.

Obviously we are not hearing the full story, but I wish him well and hope he has a helluva career wherever he lands.

flyfish1168

phlegms get loser point. Is this a sign of things?

Bank Shot

Great night for the Oilers. Seattle loses and the Flames lose.

I don’t see the Ducks as a legit playoff threat yet so any early season points they bank off of division rivals is a win for the white hats.

razor

Watching the Ducks Flames game. Flames doubled them in shots but lost in overtime. That’s two games straight Flames shooting from everywhere and getting nothing done. Sutter hockey. You love to see it. Also Getzlaf is a shell of his former self. So slow. I think we dodged a bullet in him resigning and us scooping Ryan.

Victoria Oil

Calgary Flames……Overtiiiiiime Losers!!

(I miss Kevin Quinn).

tcho

Ha! Phlegms lose in OT against the Ducklings. Ducks looked like a bad hockey team much of the night too. Sutter hockey.

OriginalPouzar

Where did the play by play of the flames game go?

flea

Lovin’ Darryl Sutter hockey, shoot from everywhere, generate nothing.

Better trade Gaudreau, one of the only skill players on the team.

crushing early loss for the Flames.

AsiaOil

Not sure why people can’t see that HH is a classic egotistical “heel” and his only role is to drive comments and traffic. He’s actually good at it since at least 25% of all comment on this board are generate by or at him. LT keeps him for a reason. So his presence makes perfect economic sense even if it ruins the environment. Like many things these days.

Bank Shot

I’d argue that HH turns more people away from posting here than any net benefit from his comment spam.

It’s not like this blog needs more sober second thought. Many of the commenters here have been hyper critical of moves they didn’t agree with from day one.

Genjutsu

So the tar sands of the blog.

Sounds about right.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, I guess Gibson’s injury was short term as he’s playing tonight in Calgary – almost assures that Stolarz plays tomorrow night.

Harpers Hair

Blake Coleman with a goal in his Flames debut.

OriginalPouzar

Where was the play by play of the LA Kings second game?

Harpers Hair

Didn’t have a chance to watch it but did note both Kopitar and Doughty had another 2 points each.

Worth noting that Doughty has twice as many points as the entire Oilers D corp combined 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Probably worth noting that the result was a Kings’ loss to a team they are could be fighting for a wild card spot with.

Solid points for Doughty, he’s likely more concerned with getting caved (even with score effects helping) and losing the goal share battle at evens unless, well, putting up points in the name of making the Olympic team is his primary goal.

Harpers Hair

Certainly can’t blame him for that.

And he’s absolutely killing the underlying minutes at evens.

GF% 57.14

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8474563

OriginalPouzar

Last game, where his points were noted, GF 1, GA 2 – team lost by a goal.

YKOil

Kane suspended 21 games for lying about his COVID record. Which is mind-blowing. Of all the things to lie about.

Other takeaways – in counseling, cleared of the domestic violence charge, and the Sharks team response sounds like they (the team) won’t be all that forgiving at the end of 21 games.

Hope he gets his head right.

Side

Nothing like declaring bankruptcy and then getting suspended, missing out on millions of dollars because he didn’t want to get a free vaccine.

Coilers2021

Somewhere out on some remote lake, Dustin Byfuglien is chuckling to himself, sipping his beer and casting off with his reel. If that guy couldn’t sort him out, no one could.

leadfarmer

The weaponizing cap space are getting run over by the Flyers tonight. It’s like they secretly traded goalies for the night

DevilsLettuce

It’ll all turn around for Weaponizing cap space when Appleton finally stops fucking around and assumes his birthright, top 6 center positioning.

OriginalPouzar

From Gregor:

“This off-season he worked on refining the small, subtle changes he incorporated in his game last year. And the other thing, he is taking more ice on shots now. Watch him taking a step out on shots when he knows they are coming. I’ve been really impressed.” Woodley on Mike Smith

Ive got to say, he’s looked very very soood again this year. It’s early but he’s playing well and, presuming he gets adequate rest (and I think he will), i think he can repeat his performance from last year over 82 games.

Material Elvis

You might say he’s exsoooding confidence.

maudite

The biggest change that really drove his huge year was that he cut out a lot of the reckless puck handling. That was good for spotting what, like a half goal a game previous to last year?

Kinger_Oil.redux

– after Koskis first start on the 2nd of B2B there are 8 games until his scheduled next start (vs Buffalo in a 2nd of B2B, or maybe he gets the 1st vs BOS then they give Smith the easy one).

– maybe he gets one additional start in those 8 games.

David

A little more than a year ago I thought Broberg had the potential to be special (an elite #1). Now I think his ceiling (which is no guarantee to reach) is something like Klefbom. That will still be a very valuable player and roughly worth an 8th overall pick regardless of better players chosen after him. No guarantee that he becomes Klefbom though. Here’s hoping!

SwedishPoster

You’re making very nice points LT, as per usual, but Broberg doesn’t really rhyme with cherry.

The pronounciation of Broberg doesn’t sit well with english speakers but I’d break it down like this. The Bro is pronounced like brew, with a hard rolling r like an old scotsman would say it.
The second part, berg, which means mountain btw, has the same ber-sound as in berry but without the last y so the second syllable is just “berr”, again with scottish r(in some parts it’s french r-sounds but we’ll go through that in the advanced class).
Instead, and this where it gets a bit tricky to explain since I just cut the y, it ends with the y-sound from yes or you or yard, so Broberg is only two syllables.

So it sort of is pronounced Brew-berr-y but it doesn’t rhyme with cherry at all…
More like Brew-berr-yes but the -es is silent.

Don’t know if it rhymes with any english word, can’t recall such an ending being used in english, I’ll let you native speakers figure that one out.

One could also argue that the “ber” isn’t as hard as in berry but more like in bear but I feel I’ve dragged this one long enough.

Next week Berglund!

4sberg

Hahah.This post made me laugh through shared experience.
Growing up here with what at the time was an unknown Swedish last name until Foppa came into the NHL, my grandfather was very frustrated nobody could say our last name properly, even us kids. I dated a girl who had a Norwegian father and even he made fun of my pronunciation. “Oh, Kristin, I don’t know about this one, he doesn’t even say his last name properly.” Forsberg = a slurred Forsh-berr with a strangled g at the end. Try explaining that to everyone who called me Forestburg, Foresberger, Foresburt etc.

Todd Macallan

Ha, I spent a few early yrs of my life living in Forestburg, lovely little spot!

4sberg

BROBERG – https://www.pronouncenames.com/mp3/210749_1369065501282.mp3

Forsberg has the same ending obviously – hard to describe but Swedish Poster describes it pretty well, the end of the “berr-y” is like a hard Y or a cut-off G that doesn’t get fully enunciated. Like berr-ig but no hard G – my grandpa said it very close to the mp3 file.

FORSBERG – https://www.pronouncenames.com/mp3/210224_1368981115613.mp3

Lutefisk

Lutefisk concurs
Any NHL players of note from Järkvissle?

Bank Shot

Bro-burg it is!

DieHard

You win

Revolved

Do Ekblad next. I doubt he would even pronounce it as Swedish, but it must be.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I was surprised at the push back when observing that Koski has one scheduled start this month: the 2nd of the B2B in Vegas

– we just have to hope Smith stays hot and healthy: as only injury prevents him from being most used starter in league. That’s how we roll.

– Koski will likely have a tough time in his start: pick your poison: first of year, he knows team doesn’t believe and been treated as such, B2B, team will be in 4-day Vegas mode

– I don’t think the organization is set up to maximize Smith, and the Oil are very poor at using science, data for many decisions but am confident that by no design of their doing the goalie situation will be fine. Hopefully we just are too good to mask our organizations old-school.

dustrock

Koskinen certainly is not set for success, given how Tippett employs his goalies. We also don’t want Smith to be burnt out by the time the playoffs roll around.

Honestly, just give Koskinen every 3rd game and play the season like that.

If anyone needs load management, it’s Smith.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– except for the fact that they have Koski available they won’t play Smith quite as hard as they did Koski (who had the most starts and most minutes by a country mile through what 2 months last year). Then he burned out. I never got why they didn’t give whoever was Koskis back up a few games in that stretch. It’s like they have done everything to not help Koski (whose not their guy) to the detriment of the org.

– they would start smith 55 + games. I bet a lot smith gets over-worked and they will be miffed : a new goalie coming in and that goalie will be the “piece that puts them over the top”.

– This gets resolved one way or another: by reaction, not design. Smith is not the 55 game then win Cup goalie they have set the team up for, as much as they love him.

jp

– we just have to hope Smith stays hot and healthy: as only injury prevents him from being most used starter in league. That’s how we roll. 

Speaking of data, you might remember that Smith and Koskinen split the net almost exactly in Tippett’s first year (39/38 games). Last year Smith had the advantage 32/26 games.

Looking just at the period after Smith’s return, the split was 32/14 for Smith. He was 7th (not 1st) in the league in minutes played from that point on, and only 19th in minutes for the whole year.

OriginalPouzar

Those numbers do not propagate that narrative though…..

Tip has spoken expressly about needing both guys up and running and the plan being for the starts to be shared more equally this year.

Of course, talk means nothing without action but Smith starting tomorrow makes 100% sense when looking at the week’s schedule.

OriginalPouzar

Listening to Tip:

Was asked about wanting to cut Nurse’ minutes down and Tip re-confirmed that he’s working on it but it’s a work in progress.  The first game, his minutes were partially a function of Keith being out of the rotation for a bit.

Was asked about Kailer and his PIMs and he confirmed that, yes, Kailer needs to work on taking less penalties – he said the first PIM wasn’t an issue but the 2nd one was a legit penalty and was a bad penalty to take.

Team is staying in Vegas for a couple of days after the game. Tip said he’s a fan of the team getting away together and they didn’t have a chance to do so in camp so they’ll get some bonding in after the game.   For me, that is perfect with the 4 full days off.

Shore: will make the final decision in the morning but he says he feels good and they’ll just make sure he got through practice without issue and it seems like that’s the case.

Penalties: Some of them are a by-product of what they are doing before (i.e. turning the puck over and then having to take a penalty).

5 on 5 play: In the last game, there was 47 shots against but “it wasn’t a 47 shot game. The chances were very even in the game”. We haven’t been bad but there are some things we can improve on – coverage in our own end, wandering a little bit.  For me, he NAILED it when he said “wandering” – some guys, for me, have reverted to puck chasing and going walkabout.
 

31saves

I completely understand what tip is trying to say, but what a hilarious thing to say.

“Have you tried playing Nurse less?”
“I’m TRYING!”

Munny 2.0

I don’t want the story is with Barrie, but he seems to be doing this waay more this year than last. Then Nurse has to walkabout to cover the walkabout.

My working theory is that Barrie is hearing the footsteps of the kid coming up behind him looking to steal his lunch money. He’s trying to do too much, which gets him out of position. He needs to relax and simplify his game in his own end.

Also, if I’m Tippett, I don’t have him and Kass on the ice together.

defmn

I think he is trying to play better defence and it is a learning curve. 😉

Cassandra

A lot of disengeneous arguments in this thread, and this time by knee-jerk Oiler defenders not HH.

While it is true that it is still early on Broberg, it is obvious that the Oilers, and anyone sane, would trade him tomorrow for a significant number of players drafted the same year.

Bank Shot

Lots of story left to tell. I think a lot of people just want to be right so they are quick to cast judgement.

Like Nurse vs Nichushkin. People were calling that race over immediately.

Anyone out there would make that trade now?

PennersPancakes

Which arguments pro Broberg would you say are disingenuous?

I havent read anyone say they wouldnt trade him? I think a lot of people are saying the story is early and not finished. Most of the issue is certain people coming in and trashing Broberg because a player drafted after is better, or saying that since Broberg isnt in the NHL this season that hes not worth while.

Cassandra

Any argument that doesn’t acknowledge that Broberg’s stock has dropped is disengenuous. He was a top ten pick and his arrows do not support that pick. That doesn’t mean he is therefore nothing, but our enthusiasm should be tempered.

Bank Shot

It has only dropped if you are the type of fan that figures an 8th overall should step into the NHL and be elite at 20. Most 8th overalls bust or become average to good NHLers.

Side

But other teams in the top 10 after making their pics wouldn’t have traded for Broberg then just like they wouldn’t trade their player for Broberg now. Broberg has always been pegged as a project and, seeing how Holland has been handling Broberg so far, seems like the project is following Holland’s development schedule. I would be more worried if Holland pushed to have Broberg in the AHL sooner instead of letting him play overseas like he had. I would also be more worried about Broberg if he sinks this year in the AHL.

Because of this, it seems premature to start laying the groundwork to declare Broberg a bust already which HH seems to be doing. Just like he was doing for Bouchard prior to this season. Maybe that’s why people are defensive about Broberg, because HH’s playbook is predictable and we know what’s coming this year for his “analysis” or “insight” into Broberg’s career.

But yet, if one were to read his comments in support of Brogan Rafferty, they could probably use the same arguments he used for defending Brogan to defend Broberg.

Bank Shot

I don’t know why anyone bothers to engage HH in debate. He is just looking to pan anything and everything Oilers. So predictable.

Side

It’s a shame. People want to genuinely discuss things relating to the Oilers but HH can’t have a discussion in good faith and instead, resorts to:

1) moving goal posts
2) spouting misinformation
3) making things up to try to bolster his argument or to make the Oilers look bad

The saddest outcome of this is there are people who are fooled and think HH is trying to have a discussion in good faith without, well, fact checking his posts or knowing his agenda.

The guy literally lies about stuff all of the time and people feel it’s valuable to have those kinds of posts. It’s wild.

defmn

Slow learners? 😉

(I’ll probably have to stay off the board for a few days now for that remark but, really, how many time do you have to watch a movie to know how it is going to end?)

Last edited 3 years ago by defmn
who

Sometimes it’s entertaining, and sometimes it’s just tiresome.
I’m continually amazed at how many posters get so upset with HH when he’s clearly just yanking their chain.

Munny 2.0

Two days in the box of shame?

That’s a stiff penalty there, Signore Alighieri…

defmn

2nd circle?

kgogshig

Honestly with Broberg’s physical gifts….barring catastrophic injury (knocks on wood), the worst he can do this year is stagnate and not materially improve in his weak areas.

Even in that scenario he will naturally improve in strength and maturity.

If that happens, big whoop, press reset and see if he improves in Draft + 4 (he’s still waiver exempt for Draft+4 and+5)

The ball is in Broberg’s court….Ken Holland has handed him off to Woodcroft and Keith Gretzky and can basically forget about him for 3 full seasons.

The oilers org has arguably given him some of the best possible environment to develop in.

It’s Broberg’s job to force Keith to call Holland and say “he’s ready”

OriginalPouzar

I’d add Dave Manson to a person that will have a material role in Broberg’s future.

OriginalPouzar

Cassandra

 Reply to PennersPancakes

 October 18, 2021 2:33 pm

Any argument that doesn’t acknowledge that Broberg’s stock has dropped is disengenuous. He was a top ten pick and his arrows do not support that pick. That doesn’t mean he is therefore nothing, but our enthusiasm should be tempered.

His timeline (and arrows) seem to represent reasonable projection on draft day. It was highly discussed and generally agreed that he was raw and going to take a number of years, likely 3-4 years until he was ready for the NHL.

It was well known that the “skill forward” would arrive in the NHL before he did.

Of course, straight up player for player value across the league (without taking in to account rosters and organization depth at positions, etc.) and the likes of Zegras and Caufield have more value but, again, that was probably known on draft day.

The story on Broberg has many pages to be read still.

JimmyV1965

I think you can be concerned about Broberg’s development, be willing to trade him for other players drafted that year, and still think he has the potential to be a valuable player. These ideas are not mutually exclusive. Not that I have strong feelings about Broberg either way.

Harpers Hair

No one has said Broberg cannot be a valuable player but a top 10 draft pick carries higher expectations.

Bob MacKenzie’s list had him ranked 15th so he was very likely a reach pick.

Interestingly, MacKenzie’s list had Moritz Seider ranked 16th right behind Broberg but Detroit reached and drafted him #6 overall and it appears the Wings made an astute choice.

Like Broberg, Seider played all of last season in Sweden scoring 7 goals and 28 points while Broberg managed only 3 goals and 13 points.

Seider seems not to have needed extra time to adjust to NHL ice, systems or whatever since he played in the AHL in the season immediately following the draft.

He has scored 3 points in 2 games in the NHL this season.

It will be interesting to track the two’s careers as they unfold.

PennersPancakes

Yes lets trash the Oilers for drafting Broberg, and trash Broberg for his development and compare Broberg to a player drafted before Broberg. If only the Oilers could have drafted 6th overall why didnt they think of that.

I guess as a Canucks fan you do know something about disappointing top 10 picks so maybe for once we should listen to you.

Be better. Go ahead and troll, it can be fun but have a little respect and put a little effort into it.

Harpers Hair

You mean they didn’t become elite players until they were 25.

Early on they had limited minutes playing second fiddle to the West Coast Express.

Daniel scored 20 goals in the NHL when he had just turned 20 despite limited minutes.

While I certainly agree patience is a virtue, it’s also a curse when you’re in win now mode.

pts2pndr

What classifies as a significant number? While I was not a proponent of the pick it is still way too early to predict which player in this draft year will have the best career. It is true that pessimists are seldom disappointed!?

Munny 2.0

I would not contemplate that trade. I don’t think Holland would either.

DieHard

I have always thought Broberg was replacement for Klefbom/Keith at 2LD. That gives the crew in Bake 2 years to get him really really NHL ready. Samorukov has this year to get ready to move on up. After this year and next left side D will be Nurse, Samorukov and Broberg. That would be set for years and then what to do with all the other lefties that are shining bright. Then what about that new German fellow Munzenberger (sp).

OriginalPouzar

I generally agree with this – in particular that Keith and his two years being the bridge for Broberg/Samorukov.

I do see (hope) that Samorukov has a solid (and healthy) season and earns a call-up this year and plays a good stretch of games – should give him the head starts on the 3LD to start next season and battle with Keith for 2LD.

Broberg kind of in behind and doing the same the following year.

Niemelainen has inserted himself in to the conversation. There is something about this guy – he closes so fast on players and has this knack of “getting in the way”, of both the puck and the player. I have a feeling his AHL game may translate very well to the NHL.

Leon will take Munzenburger under his wing starting at the Olympics in February…… OK, that’s a massive stretch but I can be hopeful of his selection.

Harpers Hair

im Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
·
51s

Oilers have sent goalie Olivier Rodrigue from Bakersfield to Wichita where he’ll be the starter

Wonder Llama

Far from this opera forevermore.

OriginalPouzar

A 100% no-brainer known for a few months now.

Rodrigue had such a messed up first year pro. Normal times he would have be starting in Wichita all year (like he will be this season) but, due to Covid, he went over to Austria but we recalled after a month on emergency because Skinner needed to stay in the AHL (after Forsberg was claimed). He then got thrown in to a bunch of AHL games before he was ready and, once Skinner was assigned, sat on the bench for most of the year as Woody rode Skinner.

He’ll get the season this year he should have had last year.

Durag

Team twitter confirms Smith is starting tomorrow night. I assume Koskinen gets Thursday against Arizona, 12 days after last playing half a preseason game. I don’t think he’s going to be “sharing the crease” at all this year.

Last edited 3 years ago by Durag
AsiaOil

Tip is going to Tip. You start Kos if you are serious about playing both guys no matter how well Smith is going.

Maximov situation is weird and doubt we get the real story.

Durag

At this point I’m just going to expect Smith to start 55-60 games and hope that he really has found the fountain of youth.

David

I think Tippet’s systems and player relations are good-great. Some of his roster deployment choices are maddening.

McSorley33

Yeah, I can’t say I am surprised.

However, for some comedy take a look at Az’s lineup. Lost by a touchdown to the Blue Jackets and I can see why.

Louis Eriksson and Andrew Ladd on the same team. They are complemented to go with Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel.

If your into 4th line play – AZ is your team.

No idea what it would take a hockey fan in AZ to throw money out for Season tickets.

At least Kosky will be gifted and easy start.

Durag

It’s like an expansion team that was only allowed to take other teams’ bad contracts.

OriginalPouzar

AsiaOil

 Reply to Durag

 October 18, 2021 2:04 pm

Tip is going to Tip. You start Kos if you are serious about playing both guys no matter how well Smith is going.

I don’t agree with this at all given the schedule this week – Tuesday at home and then Thurs/Fri on the road followed by four full days off.

If Mikko starts Tuesday that means (1) he gets two of the next 3 games (which doesn’t make sense to lock in given Smith’s level of play) and (2) it means Smith has one start in 11 days which is not ideal for him (or the team).

If they didn’t have the back to back on the road coming up, I would say Mikko would be starting tomorrow.

kgogshig

I’m getting nervous about Lawson Crowse….Bob Stauf has been saying his name repeatedly on his show….he must know something…Kassian for Crowse to save some cap space?

Kert

In with the bad, out with the worse?

PennersPancakes

At this point in their careers isnt Crowse just a 6 years younger Kassian for half the cap?

OriginalPouzar

Lagesson re-assigned to the AHL.

He wasn’t on the roster so they would still need to make another move to activate Shore (would imagine its McLeod).

With Lagesson in the AHL, that gives them:

Lagesson
Niemelainen
Berglund
Broberg
Kemp
Kesselring
Deharnais (AHL contract)
Kaldis (AHL contract)

Samorukov is likely only a few weeks away with the initial 6-weeks diagnosis.

They sat Kaldis to go with 6D last night but, with Lagesson, I imagine they’ll be going with 7D nightly – They like Deharnais in the lineup I think.

jp

Wow, a surprise for sure.

He was very late to arrive in NA though, which could be have played a role.

Last edited 3 years ago by jp
geowal

I thought he was late because he had the Sputnik shot so had to get the domestic version to be cleared to join, it wasn’t anything on his part they would’ve held against him. I’d assume he squawked about a lack of opportunity and Holland doesn’t feel the need to keep him against his will.

jp

Yes, that’s probably true. Total speculation on my part, but if he missed all of camp due to not getting the vaccination thing cleared up in a timely manner, then also refused an ECHL assignment, maybe they weren’t happy. Total guess, and I could be way off base.

godot10

Moscow >> Bakersfield. He can probably earn as much in Russia.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think he had any issue with being in Bakersfield this season.

He came over and went through all the required steps (i.e. getting re-vacinatted) with full knowledge that he wasn’t going to be on the NHL team.

He also spent 2/3 of last season in the VHL, not the AHL – I’m thinking his VHL income is less than his AHL income.

Not to mention – lots of reports of KHL players not having been paid this year – they reported to camps in July.

€√¥£€^$

Didn’t much like the Blumel situation.

This move I outright hate. I don’t understand how Safin, McPhee or Kambeitz draws ahead of him. Even Schaller, for that matter. Bah! What a Friggin waste of a draft pick….

OriginalPouzar

I agree with the playing time/deployment issue being a fiasco – if it is indeed the case. I think our only intel on the ECHL assignment is Stauffer guessing at this point – although he very well could be right.

If that is the case it really doesn’t make any sense given the players in the Condors’ lineup – I had to look two guys up last night, I had never heard of them.

I think the Oilers would still hold his NHL rights (for many years) although this likely means there is a burned bridge so he won’t be back – could trade his rights at some point I guess. In that regard, yes, I guess “wasted draft pick” is apt but lets not forget, he was a 5th round pick and his arrows were “even” at best I would say.

As far as Blumel, to me, nothing the org did wrong is the player didn’t want to sign in the NHL at this point in time – which seems the case given, well, he hasn’t signed in the NHL.

OriginalPouzar

Maksimov on waivers for the purposes of contract termination.

Didn’t see that coming but did find it odd that he didn’t play this weekend – assumed he was banged up.

This is disappointing to me – I had posted about him being my dark-horse prospect for this season and thought he was going to take a step forward and have a pop season in the AHL.

Sounds like I couldn’t have been more wrong.

OriginalPouzar

Stauffer speculating that the org wanted to send him to the ECHL and he wasn’t in to that.

If that is the case, then I understand Maksimov’s position completely. Of course, I can’t say how he performed in camp or if he had “attitude issues” (which i doubt given he’s been known as a hard working and coachable player) but they are playing guys like McPhee and other “non real prospects” and guys on non NHL contracts.

I don’t know how the org would think he should be in the ECHL with some of the guys playing this past weekend – like that Dino guy who got fed in a fight (WHL signing – 12 fights in the WHL over four years).

Darth Tu

Welp. they can’t all be zingers. All the best to Maksimov, and may he do the business in Russia. I wish him well!

OriginalPouzar

Here is hoping that Shore is a full participant in practice today – if he’s ready for Tuesday, that will likely mean an AHL re-assignment for Ryan McLeod.

Will be interesting to see if Tip will tell us today who is starting tomorrow and who it will be. I would think Mikko but that would mean Mikko plays two of the next three (before a 4-day break) as they play Tuesday at home to Anaheim and then Thurs/Friday in Arizona and Vegas.

Didn’t take long to solve these mysteries. Per Nugent-Bowman, Shore is between Perlini and Turris and Smith in the starters net.

Definitely need to get Mikko in a game but this makes sense to me with the schedule and the back to backs on Thurs/Friday on the road.

Smith is rolling and was a huge part of both of the two wins. If Mikko starts on Tuesday then he’s playing 2 of the next 3 and Smith gets too much time off given 4 full days off after Friday.

jp

Be nice to get Koskinen more in the rotation but this makes sense.

Also nice to have Shore back. That feels weird to say, but that line was good in pre-season, and seemed to be missing him so far.

ArmchairGM

Broberg (rhymes with Cherry)

Bro – Barrie – lund

OriginalPouzar

Yes, it seems like “erg” is pronouncy “berry” in Sweden.

Broberg is called Broberry over there

Berglund is called Berrylund over there.

I credit Bruce and Dave at the Cult with the pronunciation (they’ve been doing it for a LONG time since they starting watching games overseas during the shutdown).

I credit myself for figuring out that “erg” equals “berry” – based off the large sample size of 2.

dessert1111

I think erg is erry. So really the only difference is the g sounds like a y.

YKOil

So… at the risk of drawing controversy, and knowing the jury is out re: ‘letting time show us the way’ (especially re: Koskinen who has yet to play)… I am going to say, early, that the 1st rounder Lowetide says will probably be used on a goalie…

…is better spent replacing trading and replacing Barrie.

The early differentials we are seeing in shot share for that pairing, and Nurse’s time on ice, is unsustainable imo.

Going to leave that there.

———–

Also, could you imagine:

Nurse … Bouchard
Klefbom … Larsson
x … x

That is a Cup contending top-four right there.

Our defensive depth IS improving but no question, the injuries to Sekera and Klefbom have hugely complicated our defensive build. The Klefbom injury alone added $1 million, maybe $2 million, per year to Nurse’s paycheque and the Sekera buy-out was a killer as well.

SoCaloil

injuries are part of the game but Klef’s injury was a significant setback for the club, the fans, and most notably the player

JimmyV1965

I doubt Barrie gets traded until the off-season. Bouchard needs more time in the bottom of the order.

kgogshig

Why is everyone panicking about Broberg?

Ken Holland development model folks!!! He’s got 3 years left waivers exempt.

If he improves enough in the AHL or on injury callups to steal someone’s job in the next 3 years good for him.

Duncan Keith arrived in the NHL at 22 after 2 full AHL seasons…relax people.

Harpers Hair

Since we seem to be re-litigating the 2019 draft…here are some fun facts.

Top 5 scorers in the NHL thus far:

Hughes – 54

Kakko – 40

Dach – 35

Hoglander (2nd round) – 29

Zegras – 13

Since it has been argued here that Holland selected Broberg because he knew about Klefbom’s injury we must conclude he drafted for need rather than best player available.

Of the 10 defensemen drafted in the 1st round, 6 have already played NHL games and Broberg is among a group that were drafted 18, 19 and 32 who have no NHL games to their credit.

Ice Sage

Right. And good defensemen never arrive late!

Harpers Hair

Some do…most don’t.

Redbird62

I mentioned others below, but another one of your favorites, Shea Theodore, did not become an NHL regular defenseman until he was 22.

You make value judgements like “Some do .. most don’t” but don’t back it up with legitimate data. Just spouting off unsubstantiated, meaningless opinions once again.

John Chambers

If I learned anything from this past weekend, and from the author’s post today, it’s that making bold conclusions Draft +2 is a poor idea.

Puljujarvi, five full years after his draft is looking just as quality as any of Dubois, Laine, or Tkachuk. The others came flying out the gate, but JP now serves us with a very complete game (and low $ cap-hit).

I expect Trevor Zegras and Cole Caufiled to have excellent seasons, and get paid handsomely in their early 20’s. My expectations for Broberg are to mature into an NHL player at age 22, and play in the top-4 at 23. He’ll take longer, and very importantly he’ll be a value contract through the Oilers competitive window.

Harpers Hair

Grading players on how long they are on their ELC’s is counter intuitive.

Given how short NHL careers are, I would suggest getting impact early is a far more preferable outcome.

As for Jesse…it is indeed nice that he is showing progress after 5 years but to suggest he is of the same quality as the players you mention after just 2 games and a 28.6 shooting percentage strikes me as very premature.

For example, Tkachuk who, by all accounts, had a poor season last year still managed to score 43 points in only 56 games (Jesse had 25) and has a career high of 34 goals and 77 points as a 20 year old

Both Dubois and Laine had had off ice issues last season so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out this season

Fuhrious

I like how you list points by forwards first and then hope that the reader takes that as a knock against defensemen like Broberg. You tried that already once below in trying to bait people into comparing Zebras and Broberg by points. *Yawn*

“Oh no, Mr. Fuhrious, I specifically compared the defensemen only at the bottom of my post” Ah, yes, the time-worn and perfected measurement of using games played to fully determine the future potential of 20 year old defensemen. Good grief.

DevilsLettuce

You have no idea what Ken Holland was thinking, only you must conclude to that. After your terribly painful weekend you must latch your painfully pathetic ego onto whatever discrediting area you can convince yourself is a failure of Ken Holland because all the teams you trumpet suck fucking ass and your hockey opinions are the gas that is sucked out.

Broberg is 2 games into his North American career, Bouchard is killing it on the big club after successfully being slow roasted by Manson in the AHL

So the rest of us except for a few Zigras fans and maybe even them must conclude that once Manson has slow roasted Broberg then he will arrive in a mighty fashion and also beat the piss and shit out of all the trumpets you blare.

We must conclude.

Fella talking about Brogan Rafferty being top 4 defended and telling us we must conclude Broberg is a failure lol

Don’t chirp me I’m insightful.

pts2pndr

Give it the LT five year standard. It could be argued that Quinn Hughes at minutes 24 in an abbreviated season should have not been playing in the NHL. Points for a D used alone as a standard re quality for a D is crap! Maybe you could have used height as the standard and he would also be number one for shortest/smallest player playing the D position. He has been closer to fail in the defensive part of the game. You know the one standard that truly counts in winning championships!

flyfish1168

Nicholas Lidstrom considered one of the very best Dman from Sweden did not arrive till 21.

Harpers Hair

Everyone trotting out examples from long gone eras of the NHL to justify the slow play of prospects are ignoring how the game has skewed to young players, particularly young D, who are having a major impact on the game.

It don’t work like that anymore.

Side

Yet, posting only point totals to determine who won a draft 2 years ago has never worked.

And here you are.

jp

It don’t work like that anymore.

I know Yost had an article last year saying the NHL is getting younger (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/yost-nhl-rosters-continue-to-trend-younger-1.1465718%3ftsn-amp).

But according to this (https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/lqvv2z/average_nhl_player_age_by_year/) Yost started measuring the trend around when NHL average age was at it’s highest point in 50 odd years.

So the league really hasn’t changed that much, and it’s actually skewed older now than when a guy like Lidstrom entered the league.

Please do carry on though.

Last edited 3 years ago by jp
Redbird62

Tell that to Toews, Weegar Pesce and Pelech who all got Norris votes last year and all didn’t become NHL regulars until they they were 23/24. These things go in cycles. Between 1979 to 1983, Bourque, Housley, Coffey, MacInnes, Murphy, Reinhart, Babych, and Stevens all jumped into the league at the ages of 18,19 or 20 and became almost immediate stars. What may appear to be happening now is not unprecedented at all and it will ebb and flow.

PennersPancakes

The average age of players in the NHL has been going up. For defense the average (27.2). It peaked in 05-06, went down a bit then has been on the uptrend for the last 6 seasons.

When Lidstrom started in 91-92 (D+3) the average defender age was 26.1.

https://soundofhockey.com/2021/02/27/data-dump-saturday-ages-of-nhl-players/

Be better.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to flyfish1168

 October 18, 2021 11:46 am

Everyone trotting out examples from long gone eras of the NHL to justify the slow play of prospects are ignoring how the game has skewed to young players, particularly young D, who are having a major impact on the game.

It don’t work like that anymore.

Sutter Hockey!

pts2pndr

So say you and possibly one or two of your so called experts! Saying it doesn’t make it so! Your record on all things hockey and your personal integrity are at best questionable and at times laughable! You don’t even have the humility to preface your stupidity by stating your ideas as opinions.You also don’t admit when you’re wrong or for that matter pay your bets when you lose!

flyfish1168

Over that same period, hughes is -35 5×5 That is norris numbers alright. One-dimensional unable to break the down low cycle. Points mainly on PP. LOL

godot10

The only two D who have established themselves in the NHL are Byram and Seider, both drafted ahead of Broberg. Soderstrom (in Arizona) will probably play this year, three spots after.

How much will Byram play when Toews is back?

All the other guys have had looks, but failed to establish themselves, so really are NOT ahead of Broberg. And they have been in North America.

Harpers Hair

Byram would likely have 50+ games under his belt had he not been concussed last season but has been excellent thus far this season.

Once Toews returns it won’t affect him much at all since Colorado will run:

Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Erik Johnson – Samuel Girard
Bowen Byram – Ryan Murray

https://theathletic.com/2895090/2021/10/18/17-avalanche-observations-after-week-1-early-returns-on-kurtis-macdermid-and-darcy-kuemper-missing-players-more/

As it is…it is very rare for a top 10 draft pick D to spend a season in the AHL and the ones who did are pretty much a rogue’s gallery including such luminaries are Juolevi, Reinhart and McIlrath,

Fuhrious

a rogue’s gallery including such luminaries are Juolevi, Reinhart and McIlrath

I’m not sure Juolevi counts given that he wasn’t drafted by an actual NHL team.

PennersPancakes

Byram has been excellent this season. Discounting Pulju for 2 games but praising Byram for 2 games. Also Byram gets an injury pass while Brobergs multiple injuries last season never get mentioned while you drag on him.

This is pathetic. Be better

DMirrors

Evan Bouchard is a top 10 pick and spent a year in the AHL. With his usage last year, I suspect if not for the COVID rules, he would have seen time in the AHL again. Prospect development isn’t a straight line.

Where would Broberg be if not for lost time to injuries, and COVID? It’s hard to say. If there was a regular AHL season last year would Broberg have been in Sweden, or would the Oilers made a stronger push to bring him to NA?

I feel prospect development across the league took a hit last year, and will be something to watch going forward.

Clarkenstein

We might have to wait an extra year for Broberg due solely to his staying in Europe and playing instead of moving over to Junior hockey in North America where he would have learned the NA game much quicker. Having said that I’m hoping it’s worth the wait.

Bling

What’s interesting regarding Broberg is how impressive he has been at prior camps. There was definitely a step back in terms of performance in Europe last season following the (I believe) two injuries sustained at or shortly before the WJC.

Now OP is saying he didn’t even recognize Broberg’s skating as being elite in the AHL.

I think this is another of the unseen dangers of a young player playing hurt: they compensate and change their game to allow themselves to stay out there. If those habits become ingrained, that is obviously poor from a development standpoint. The gradation between elite, very good, average, and non-NHLer is smaller than we probably recognize.

I’m not saying Broberg is completely damaged. For sure prospects don’t develop in straight lines, and I believe there is a player there.

I do believe now that it is difficult to discount the effect last year’s injuries had on his development, because certainly this is not the player that was previously turning heads and earning all kinds of praise.

SoCaloil

nice write up.

I think we all need to tune down our expectations for these young lads.
There’s absolutely no doubt last year impacted their development.
Reduced no of games, reduced number of practices, and most of these young guys supplement with off-season coaches outside their club team.
All these have been impacted.

OriginalPouzar

Very good point and, yes, 100%, last year effected development.

For example, Lavoie starting in the Alsvenskan and then coming over for, I believe, 19 AHL games was far less ideal than a full AHL year in his 20 year old rookie pro season.

Rodrigue starting in Austria and then coming back in an emergency to start a string of AHL games before he was ready (when Skinner had to stay in Edmonton so there were 3 goalies) and then being AHL back-up and barely playing was much less ideal than being the starter in Wichita (which will likely be the case this year, shortly).

Darth Tu

I enjoy that parts of the group have went from worrying about Bouchard to now worrying about Broberg. With the D-group ahead of him Broberg has ample time to iron out the issues and get used the smaller ice. Let’s see where he is after half a season, then a full season in the AHL before we start to worry overly much. LT’s point about Bear and Jones’ development in the AHL is a good one (albeit they were later round selections).

flyfish1168

Oilers are much deeper now than when Bear and Jones1st year up with the big club. I can see Broberg’s timeline coincides with Keith’s contract.

OriginalPouzar

Ducan Keith’s two year term is the perfect bridge to the Samorukov and Broberg arrivals. Samorukov likely arrives this year but, as far as playing top 4 minutes, there is likely some additional development required (NHL development).

hunter1909

Last mention of 2021-22 Death March… closes permanently at the puck drop or extremely close to for the next Ducks game.

http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com/marches/2021-22

PS: UNLESS THIS HOPEFULLY FINAL ADVERTISEMENT GETS MORE (+) THAN (-) IN WHICH CASE MORE AND MORE DEATH MARCH EXTENTIONS WILL BE CONSIDERED LOL

McSorley33

As everyone will know, I was/am no fan of the Broberg pick.

And even though he played pro hockey in Sweden for 2 years with grown men – I think it is understandable that he will take some time to acclimatize the the N. American game.

I believe LT or someone mentioned that at the draft Broberg was not considered a ‘finished ‘prospect by any means.

In short, I believe Broberg will need a full year in the AHL just to get used to the
speed and the small ice.

Hoping we see some improvements in his game by Christmas, but I think we should
set our expectations back slightly for his arrival.

Same with Lavoie. The default for all of our prospects should be a *full* year in the AHL .
( some exceptions may apply – Holloway imo )

I am in the camp that D ( in general) need more time to develop and so I see no problem in letting Broberg ripen down on the farm. That is exactly what the farm is meant for.

Really, really appreciate the updates by OP and €√¥£€^$
on our prospects!

hunter1909

Holland adds to that development time if possible.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Yes. We should all keep in mind that the last 2 years have not been typical.
A little bit of patience is required.

OriginalPouzar

I said this before the AHL season started and the subsequent comments by Woodcroft and Playfair and the the on ice play in the first two games has “changed nothing”, I agree that both these players likely need the entire season (or the better part thereof) in the AHL.

Broberg simply needs to play pro games in North America – Playfair laid it out, LT mentioned it in his intro and we saw it in exhibition and in two AHL games – he needs to get used to the smaller ice, taking better routes to the puck and making decisions quicker – this will take time but he’ll be a significantly better player when he become acclimated – and he won’t get beat up nightly.

Lavoie needs to continue to develop in to a pro hockey player including being consistent, not only from game to game but from shift to shift. He showed himself on maybe two shifts last night and a handful on Saturday. Here is hoping that, by the end of the season, Lavoie is impacting the game throughout the game.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Please god let Skinner be for real.

Next year will be the tightest cap year with JP and Yamo to sign. It would be a huge boost if Skinner establishes himself as an everyday NHL goalie for next season. I know there are potentially other ways to free up money but a cheap goalie would go a long way.

Last edited 3 years ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
hunter1909

2 games into the season and already worried about next season lol

31saves

People enjoy their hockey in different ways.some enjoy being only in the present, some enjoy looking to the future, some do both as the time comes. No one way is better than the other.

Darth Tu

I hope he’s real, and Konovalov is as well, then there’s Rodrigue following along not far behind. I’ve been feeling pretty good about the goalie prospects for the last few years, I think we’re going to be just fine.

OriginalPouzar

I was very iffy this off-season on making a “splash” in the tending market and remain iffy on an in-season acquisition of substance (i.e a player with term).

Main reason is the need to be cap conscious in relation to the tending but also due to the developing prospects getting close to NHL ready.

Of course, we still don’t quite know what we have in Skinner (and have even less information about Konovalov) but there is reason to be optimistic on both and reason to at least reasonably hope that at least one is ready for 30 NHL starts next season.

We will know MUCH more in 8 months.

JJS

This is a great article

And quite helpful – I coach mid tier bantam and often get caught up in my own expectations. These are kids dammit!

As you have highlighted over the years, the AHL is a development league but only to a point. The wheat must separate by year 2-3 or there are issues.

hunter1909

Holland picks up veteran players for this reason.

Coilers2021

Thanks for the insightful article. Patience is required for these kids and I think it’s unreasonable for people to assume that players can transition from Europe to the NA game smoothly or that they can light things up as soon as they hit the AHL.

What I find encouraging is that these kids are in good hands with Woodcroft & Co. Woodcroft’s history suggests as much so I wouldn’t read too much after 2 games. Give it the halfway point and then see where the kids are.

verdad2.0

Failing the draft Zegras, a genuine talent already NHL ready, for another flaky, bemused Swedish defenseman is a massive fail by Holland.
Imagine if Zegras was on second line today for the OIlers, another genuine scorer, not some third or fourth liner.
This will haunt the Oilers for years.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

/thread

jp

Does Zegras have any points on the year?

Harpers Hair

It’s a pretty good bet that Zegras will outscore Broberg in the NHL this season.

Side

I don’t think you have realized that when you say “good bet” it has the opposite effect of inspiring confidence on the topic.

Especially after saying you bet on Vancouver to beat Detroit..

flyfish1168

Zegras will outscore Podkolzin too

Harpers Hair

Likely true.

Of note, Corey Pronman has his rankings of Calder Trophy candidates out this morning.

Zegras is at the top.

https://theathletic.com/2894962/2021/10/18/nhl-rookie-ranking-2021-22-top-20-candidates-to-win-the-calder-trophy/?source=user_shared_article

buck yoakam

Ah…from the mouths and minds of wise (asses)…

31saves

Just like the oilers have been haunted by the choice of Nurse instead of Russian Phenom Valeri Nichuskin all these years :/

How about we see where Broberg is after his first NA season

buck yoakam

if you had a redo would anyone pick monahan over nurse?…doubtful I am sure!

Bank Shot

They would have 2-3 seasons after the draft.

D-men usually take longer.

31saves

I forgot that Monahan was right before him! It’s crazy since only 2 years ago I still might have thought about it!

Redbird62

So who does Zegras replace in the Oilers top 6? He is a left shooting center. The only candidate would be Yamamoto if they put Zegras on the left and move Hyman to the right. I am not sure at this point Zegras would yet be a replacement for Yamamoto in the top 6 even if he manages to score more points in Anaheim, where he gets to join the lowest scoring team in the NHL last season (and the 11th lowest in the cap era out of 484) so he will be given ample opportunity. He would not be on the Oilers number one PP unit and he likely doesn’t PK. It will be several years (at least LT’s 5 post draft) before the wisdom of Holland’s 2019 draft choices will be known.

OriginalPouzar

Zegras and Broberg may very well prove that Holland made a big mistake in that draft. Of course, that is far from a conclusion that can be made today and, of course, even on draft day, it was known that Zegras would arrive in the NHL quicker than Broberg (and that Broberg would likely take 3-4 years).

Broberg is on a similar trajectory to Klefbom and very well could arrive similar to Klefbom and have an impact similar to Klefbom.

We’ll find out in the next 12-24 months.

A statement re: Zegras scoring more points in the NHL than Broberg this season is one of the most non-sensical comments I’ve ever read – a simple troll, contrarian, anti-Oiler comment meant to incite.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to flyfish1168

 October 18, 2021 10:23 am

Likely true.

Of note, Corey Pronman has his rankings of Calder Trophy candidates out this morning.

Zegras is at the top.

https://theathletic.com/2894962/2021/10/18/nhl-rookie-ranking-2021-22-top-20-candidates-to-win-the-calder-trophy/?source=user_shared_article

Can we trust a list that doesn’t have Podkolzin or Rathborne on it?

OriginalPouzar

Also, the Ducks play tonight in Calgary so we get them on the back end of back to backs tomorrow.

Gibson is currently out with an LBI but he hasn’t been put on IR and still one of two goalies on the roster with Stolarz.

OriginalPouzar

Here is hoping that Shore is a full participant in practice today – if he’s ready for Tuesday, that will likely mean an AHL re-assignment for Ryan McLeod.

Will be interesting to see if Tip will tell us today who is starting tomorrow and who it will be. I would think Mikko but that would mean Mikko plays two of the next three (before a 4-day break) as they play Tuesday at home to Anaheim and then Thurs/Friday in Arizona and Vegas.

cowboy bill

They could try Colton Sceviour in place of Macleod at 4C .If Shore isn’t ready .

OriginalPouzar

I wouldn’t be in favor of that. Sceviour has played some center but he’s a winger and he, himself, has even stated that he’s more comfortable on the wing.

SoCaloil

why would you not play McLeod vs a very young Ducks team?

OriginalPouzar

I’d play Shore over McLeod, if Shore is ready because Shore is currently the better 4C – he was better at camp (and won the job) and McLeod is struggling on the ice right now – he seems to have lost his confidence and I’ve see him struggle to even receive a pass clean (with time and space).

€√¥£€^$

Deleted

Last edited 3 years ago by €√¥£€^$
OriginalPouzar

Considering the topic today, I thought I’d re-post the last post from yesterday’s blog:

€√¥£€^$

 October 17, 2021 11:46 pm

I caught the Bake game tonight, the good is that the D Corps tonight was 100% Oiler Draft picks, with all but 1 of the 6 signed to an NHL contract. I wonder if this is the first time this has ever happened in franchise history?

As OP mentioned, Niemelainen was the standout, but did struggle with breakout passes. He and Berglund were a pairing, and Berglund was pretty steady, much better than on Saturday, IMO. Berglund plays a quiet steady game, he and his partner could get games later in the season with the big club if they keep it up.

Desharnais and Broberg were another pairing. My God does Broberg take a lot of hits, he really should do a bit of skating before he outlets, I think he would be much more effective. I don’t recall him skating it out of his zone once. I also worry about his vision, he seems to have tunnel vision and doesn’t see plays develop. He blocks a lot of shots, often from his own giveaways, he limped off once early in the game, but didn’t miss a shift. He has a long way yet to go. Luckily he has 3 seasons to develop.

Kesselring and Kemp were 3rd pair, Kemp played LD. Kemp crushed a SJ winger just outside the blue line. Very impressive. Didn’t notice him too much otherwise., same with Kesselring.

Not much offense will be generated from this d-group, especially with not much speed or skill amongst the forwards. It is great to have such quality vets, but Lavoie is the only legit forward prospect. He started to get interested in the last 10 minutes of the game, where he generated 2 shots via his own efforts, but he needs to do much more.

Safin simply has no hockey sense, despite a few awesome blasts last season, he simply isn’t very good at playing the game, unless his is stationary and shooting, I have been saying this since last season. He was not noticeable at all tonight, in fact I don’t recall if he even touched the puck. So many tools, but he’s got nothing going on. He’ll be gone by next season, he just can’t put it together.

Skinner was steady, he stopped a breakaway and then the rebound and a second breakaway, but those 3 were his only difficult shots. He also tried a poorly executed Smith clearing attempt up the middle of the ice that was intercepted inside the blueline, but Brousseau dove across the ice and saved Skinner from his blunder.

Graham McPhee dressed, but only played 6 or 7 shifts, hopefully Maksimov plays soon.

€√¥£€^$

Kesselring has shown flashes, of course. He will be a different player March, hopefully vastly different. And this applies to all of them. A single game is just a snapshot in time, but this is all we have to go on today.

Broberg and Berglund have shown some flashes and both play on the PP, so that is in their favour. Kemp has been surprisingly adept at moving the puck and supporting play in the O-Zone.

When it comes to offensive skills, Yanni Kaldis is the only Dman that has tangible offensive skills. And he is 26 years old and he only has 8 career AHL points.

I am aware, thanks to you, of Dman development timelines. So as well as they are doing, and this is an impressive group, they all still have so much more room to grow.

OriginalPouzar

On Kemp, for me, this big step he’s taken isn’t with respect to moving the puck. In my opinion, he’s always been an under-rated puck mover. Many think he’s an Adam Larsson/Matt Green type d-man but he’s not – he’s less physical than those guys but very good positionally and with his angles and is good at “getting the puck and moving the puck”.

For me, the big step he’s taken is his skating – it doesn’t seem to be two tiers below the NHL any more.

Perhaps getting to pucks quicker is helping him move the puck better but I’ve always thought he as a fine puck mover but his skating may preclude an NHL career.

OriginalPouzar

I watched that entire Condors’ game last night and LT nailed it (and it rhymes with my post-game thoughts in last night’s thread).

Broberg was “meh” at best but, of course, he’s played 2 real games and its going to take time. I didn’t even notice his skating last night. Nielemalinen was the “faster player”. Woody talked before the game about “big ice habits”. Here is hoping the game slows down a bit for Broberg.

Lavoie was a complete non-factor – LT is right, I didn’t even notice him (and I was looking) until one shift mid-way through the 3rd where he found some soft ice in the slot and took a pass for a high danger one-timer.

With Lavoie, the coaching staff have talked expressly about consistency – from game to game and shift to shift and is was not a good weekend.

Lavoie is young, yes, but 2nd year pro, 2nd year AHL is often when we see a real pop for player that have legit top 6 NHL aspirations.

I look for more next Friday.

€√¥£€^$

Savoie (he is on fire), top scorer at Denver, Engaras tied for top at UNH and Brind’Amour 2nd at Quinnipac.

We might see all 3 in the AHL next year, only 4 games in, but bodes very well for the future!

ArmchairGM

Savoie is actual fire right now. I’m sure his current tear has been well reported here but as a not-every-day visitor to the site I haven’t seen much commentary, so I was SHOCKED when I looked up the Oilers prospects on Elite Prospect to see Savoie is 2nd in the entire NCAA in scoring (the guy ahead of him has played 6 games vs 4 for Savoie).

My “ideal” comp for Savoie is Cole Caufield as they’re both undersized snipers. Caufield is just 1 year older so it’s easy to compare stats between the two. Their scoring rates D+1 were surprisingly similar:

Caufield: 36, 19-17-36 [0.53 G/GP – 1.00 P/GP]
Savoie: 24, 13-7-20 [0.54 G/GP – 0.83 P/GP]

Not so different, hey? Pretty encouraging – but the MTL pick won the Hobey Baker in year 2 with an outstanding performance, so that’s a pretty high bar for Savoie. D+2:

Caufield: 31, 30-22-52 [0.97 G/GP – 1.68 P/GP]
Savoie: 4, 5-6-11 [1.25 G/GP – 2.75 P/GP]

It’s a long season, but Savoie is off to a strong start. We’ll see how much staying power he has, but Oilers fans should be watching this kid very closely this year.

ArmchairGM

For those that want to check on Oilers prospects quickly, Elite Prospects has them all in one place:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/61/edmonton-oilers/in-the-system

€√¥£€^$

Awesome, thank you!

I didn’t know EP did this.

dinger

Thanks for the link, I appreciate it.

jp

Cool comp.

Lofty for sure, but the numbers do match pretty well so far.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM

 Reply to €√¥£€^$

 October 18, 2021 11:39 am

I have been posting quite a bit about Savoie this season.

One important development is that he is producing at evens this season. Despite the 2 PPG last game (out of his six points), the majority of his production this season has been at 5 on 5 (and this was true in exhibition as well).

This is huge in my opinion as he was heavily reliant on the PP for production in his rookie season.

He’s playing top line with Guttman and Brink.

OriginalPouzar

Given the ages of Engras and Brind’Amour, I would count them as distant bells to ever play in the NHL.

With that said, yes, you are correct, I could see them being signed to AHL contracts at the end of this season.

Don’t imagine either will be offered an NHL ELC.

jp

Likely not, but both being two way types (I think), if they can climb all the way to a point per game in college (both are there today), then they’ve entered legitimate prospect territory IMO.

OriginalPouzar

I hope you are right but I won’t have them in that category quite yet, in particular Skyler B. – I would be quite surprised to see him earn an NHL deal. Engras as well but not as surprised.

jp

I agree they’re both very unlikely to get there, just saying IF they can manage a point per game for a full season then they’ve done some major developing, and you never know at that point.

€√¥£€^$

Odds are you are correct, kinda goes without saying for 6th round picks, but they are NHL draft picks, so there is chance. The Brind’Amour name has some cachet, so he will be given a chance at a pro career for sure.

I like both of their chances at an NHL career than Safin and Soderlund, I would even add Marody to this list, as he doesn’t offer 2-way play that both of these players do.

My point is, they are showing offense 4 games into their season, I am simply happy to see this. If they sustain this production that would be a very nice development and increases their NHL prospects.

€√¥£€^$

All 6 Dmen dressed were Oiler Draft picks, with 2 others possibly joining that group in the next few weeks/months. Has that ever happened before for the Oilers farm team?

Harpers Hair

The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) Tweeted:
Former NHL player Ilya Kovalchuk will serve as GM of the Russian Olympic Committee’s hockey team at the Beijing Games.

Kovalchuk, who played 926 NHL games with five teams after being selected No. 1 in the 2001 draft, has no previous managerial experience.
https://t.co/fO9q9GXxhX

https://twitter.com/TheAthleticNHL/status/1450105552202256388?s=20

31saves

I am probably off base… But isn’t GM of an Olympic team mostly ceremonial? I just can’t imagine they have to do too much, nor have too much power over the team. I’m sure they play a role in player selection but I’m willing to bet that most teams already have their core 20 players and then maybe a handful of surprises for reserves

31saves

I’ll also say, I do appreciate you bringing in these tidbits of NHL news to the discussion. It adds different elements to the blog.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think its largely ceremonial,

Team Canada has

Doug Armstrong – GM
Ken Holand – Associate GM
Ron Francis – Assistant GM
Roberto Luongo – Assistant GM
Don Sweeney – Assistant GM

From listening to Ken Holland, they have been meeting sporadically for quite a while now and, of course, lots goes in to picking Team Canada – that’s not a straightforward task.

Also, they need to pick a second team of non-NHLers just in case the NHL ends up not going – there is a date, I believe in early January, where the final commitment is made.