I like to look at recent totals to see if there’s progress we can recognize beyond the boxcars. The five-on-five points-60 over the last seven days is revealing, along with the five-on-five ice time per game. I also wanted to have a look at defense and goaltending, so here goes.
FWDS FIVE-ON-FIVE LAST SEVEN GAMES (PTS 60)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.02
- Jack Roslovic 2.02
- Ike Howard 2.01
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.67
- Connor McDavid 1.38
- Adam Henrique 1.34
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.12
- Andrew Mangiapane 1.11
All numbers via Natural Stat Trick, and if your favourite player isn’t listed he hasn’t posted a point in the last seven games. The name that pops for me here is Ike Howard, who has found a way to be useful as well as ornamental in a small role. Now TOI per game:
- Connor McDavid 18:36
- Leon Draisaitl 17:00
- Jack Roslovic 16:56
- Andrew Mangiapane 15:30
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 15:22
- Vasily Podkolzin 15:18
- Break
- Trent Frederic 13:01
- Adam Henrique 12:48
- Matt Savoie 10:32
- Curtis Lazar 9:46
- Ike Howard 8:31
- David Tomasek 8:11
- Noah Philp 8:00
Howard is about to get sent down to the Bakersfield Condors (I believe) and the talk will be getting his confidence up and having him come back as a productive scorer. I’d just like to point out that in the last seven games, he has been a remnant and roll end for the coaching staff while also scoring well at five-on-five.
His goal share and expected goal share are not strong, but this young man has shown some things in the NHL already this season. I don’t believe he should be the one sent away. He should see more ice time, certainly more than Trent Frederic.
On a team that can’t piss a drop at five-on-five, sending out Howard isn’t exactly cutting edge analytics decision making.
DEF FIVE-ON-FIVE LAST SEVEN GAMES
This is player, goal share and expected goal share last seven games
- Darnell Nurse 58 (48)
- Jake Walman 57 (47)
- Mattias Ekholm 42 (51)
- Evan Bouchard 40 (55)
- Troy Stecher 33 (38)
- Ty Emberson 25 (54)
- Brett Kulak 0 (54) (0-3 goals)
- Alec Regula 0 (80)
Regression, that rat bastard, is making Ekholm-Bouchard look bad (well there have been a few mistakes, too) but the tide should rise for the tandem in the days to come. Nurse-Walman are pretty close to 50 percent, but are running some luck. Kulak hasn’t been on the ice for a GF in the last seven, owing much to the lack of offense to be found on the depth lines and lower TOI.
Stuart Skinner is running an .891 save percentage (.890 five-on-five) and Calvin Pickard is at .857 (but .900 at five-on-five) in these seven games.
Finally, I wanted to look at the breakdown over the last seven games in terms of TOI per game, GF-60 by line and goal share by line:
- 97 & 29: 2:47TOI, 3.08 GF-60; 50 pct goals (63 exp)
- McDavid solo: 15:48 TOI; 1.63 GF-60; 38 pct goals (48 exp)
- Leon solo: 14:12 TOI; 4.22 GF-60; 70 goals pct (53 exp)
- The rest: 20:00 TOI; 0.86 GF-60; 22 pct goals (50 exp)
So, based on these numbers, the Oilers have been playing about 53 minutes five-on-five over the last seven games, with some combination of McDavid-Draisaitl played 33 minutes and the rest of the roster 20. Source: Natural Stat Trick. I’m beginning to wonder who is coaching this team.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll look at these Oilers with feature guest Bagged Milk, as well as a long look at the NFL weekend, and CFL playoffs. Sports 1440, noon to 2pm and we’re also on YouTube.
Corey Perry with his 6th goal and 9th point in his 9th game.
Consider me one of the ones who thought it was an overpay in term, which may be the case. But he’s currently got as many points as Savoie, Frederic, Howard, and Philp combined and he plays 14 minutes a night
This team is missing his intangibles for certain.
And he wanted to stay and management spent elsewhere
He wanted to get paid more than he wanted to stay, even though he’s made $108MM in NHL earnings in his career.
I don’t think know of a single Oiler fan that would have been OK with the contract he is on.
So we could use that money to lock up Frederic for 8 years?
Perry may not be serviceable for, what, the final year? Frederic is a drag on the team for 8 years.
Connor Brown has 5G1A and scoring shorties against us. Another better option now and in the future.
Also, neither the team, nor Corey, should be making future decisions based on past salary. Citing his prior earnings is irrelevant. He scored 15 of his 19 goals even strength last season and then potted 10 in 22 playoff games, playing in various roles and with various linemates. His salary was certainly more deserved based on past performance. I would have loved for him to take a discount, and I am not sure we know what Edmonton offered and whether he would have taken less. A lot of assumptions being made
This team is in need of winning 5 in a row hopefully playing tougher competition will wake them up.
Interesting note from Gregor.
Oilers had their rookie party in Dallas Wed night and just travelled back home today – will practice tomorrow and play Sat.
I would think, normal would have been travel home after the game on Tuesday, Wed off, practice Thursday and Friday.
Did the rookies get benched in the party?
They probably couldn’t have a beer and kiss a pretty girl because apparently Karen frowns on that kind of activity.
With the way they’ve played I’d assumed they had a rookie party every time they traveled to a new city
Question for the group: how long does this kid stay in the ECHL?
Samuel Jonsson | ECHL
Three shutouts and counting. Nice!
Probably until the Oilers figure out what they’re doing with their nhl goalering
Bowman better smell the roses quickly as we donated 3 points to the 2 worst teams in the league because of less than average Goaltending. I don’t see the point in acquiring Ingram if he’s not NHL ready.,
He’s being blocked by Ingram.
Yesavage?
Threw together a query about nurse into Grok. To see if it matches gut from viewing games…it seems to have come out even worse:
Here’s the full advanced-stats deep dive I gave you last time on Darnell Nurse (updated with the three extra games played since Nov 4 → now 25 GP as of Nov 6 morning):
5v5 On-Ice Rates (via Natural Stat Trick, Oilers team rank in brackets)
CF% (Corsi For %)
51.2 % (6th of 8 regular D)
→ League-average for a #1D is ~53–55 %. He’s barely above replacement level here.
xGF% (Expected Goals For %)
47.8 % (8th of 8 — dead last)
→ When Nurse is on the ice, Edmonton is expected to be out-scored by ~0.35 xG per 60. That’s bottom-10 among all NHL D with 400+ minutes.
GF% (Actual Goals For %)
43.1 % (8th of 8)
→ Real goals are even worse than expected. Bad luck + bad finishing + bad goaltending behind him.
HDCF% (High-Danger Chance For %)
45.3 % (8th)
→ Opponents generate 18–22 % more high-danger chances when he’s on the ice than when he’s off.
Isolated Impact (Evolving-Hockey RAPM, 2025-26)
xG Against per 60 above replacement: +0.42 (worst on Oilers D)
Goals Against per 60 above replacement: +0.68
Defensive GAR (Goals Above Replacement): –4.1 (82nd percentile WORST among 168 NHL D)
Microstats (Corey Sznajder tracked data, 25-game sample)
Zone Exit Success %: 42 % (bottom quartile)
Controlled Entry Denial %: 28 % (worst on Oilers D)
Net-Front Defensive Touches per 60: 3.8 (good)
Lost Battles at Net Front per 60: 1.9 (worst on team — 3× higher than Ekholm)
Pairing Heatmap Impact (HockeyViz)
With Bouchard (most common pairing, 312 mins):
→ Edmonton xGA/60: 3.45 (22 % worse than league avg)
Without Nurse (Bouchard with Ekholm or Kulak):
→ xGA/60 drops to 2.41 (8 % better than league avg)
Penalty Kill (still elite)
Oilers PK xGA/60 with Nurse: 8.9 (top-10 in NHL when he’s out)
He personally breaks the puck out cleanly on 68 % of retrievals (2nd among all NHL PK D-men behind only Charlie McAvoy)
Money-Puck “Deserve to Win O-meter” (DTWO)
Nurse on-ice contribution to team win probability this year:
–0.078 wins per 60 (4th-worst among all NHL D with 300+ mins)
Contract Percentile Rankings (2025-26, $9.25 M AAV)
Salary rank: 4th among all NHL D
xGF% rank: 142nd
Defensive GAR rank: 157th
Total GAR rank: 139th
→ He’s being paid like Seth Jones / Morgan Rielly but delivering Aaron Ekblad-in-2024 level defense with Zach Bogosian-level offense.
Verdict in one sentence:
Every single underlying defensive metric says Nurse is currently one of the 15–20 worst starting defensemen in the NHL at 5v5, but his PK work and sheer minute-munching keep him from being completely unplayable — for now.
If the Oilers miss the playoffs by 3–4 points, you’ll be able to point to roughly 6–8 goals directly traceable to Nurse blown coverages and say “there’s your season.”
I’m not sure why this would have a downvote. This used to be a math blog. Excellent info thanks for sharing.
I don’t downvote. But between GROC and Mr Fibonaci there seems to be no point in playing the games.
And like many math related answers, it describes “what is” though I would debate if does that accurately.
There is never any mention of causation factors. You cannot solve “what is” without causation.
“CF% (Corsi For %)
51.2 % (6th of 8 regular D)”
Corsi for – notably terrible at measuring defencemen. Think Cody Franson era ‘analytics’. 3rd pair D usually have good Corsi cause they aint playing the shot creators.
Barely above replacement level as a #1D – what is that even supposed to mean? He’s not a #1D? We know that. It says the Corsi is bad but then over 50% is replacement level….what?
That’s bottom-10 among all NHL D with 400+ minutes.
No Nhl PLAYER has played 400 minutes this year in ALL situations.
“xGF% (Expected Goals For %)
47.8 % (8th of 8 — dead last)”
8th on the team? Okay? Are all minutes suddenly created equal?
Z”one Exit Success %: 42 % (bottom quartile)”
On the team? The league?
“Money-Puck “Deserve to Win O-meter” (DTWO)”
Hoo boy.
“He personally breaks the puck out cleanly on 68 % of retrievals (2nd among all NHL PK D-men behind only Charlie McAvoy)”
Okay so there are some positives
Salary rank: 4th among all NHL D
12th in cash and 10th in AAV. So just wrong.
Aside from the fact that most unpaid AI’s are meant to measure your sentiment and tailor it that way (ask if it agrees with you on anything, begin the delusion) being that it’s just a really intuitive text aggregator, the sample size is small and the conclusions are counterintuitive.
We already know he’s overpaid, and there’s alot wrong here
I didn’t downvote but is Grok or AI in general that reliable for stats yet? Whenever I see a wall of stats provided by AI I wonder how much of it is “hallucinating”.
I just found it interesting.
All i asked it was “give me a stastical analysis of darnell nurse’s performance this year”.
Like it clearly grifts character and sentiment off sites or X posts writing about him. Just intriguing to see what it came up with i pretty open setting.
I did some better ones where i stressed quality of team and competition with zone starting type stuff but it had tables and such i couldn’t copy across.
It’s not reliable. It “learns” all the smart and all the dumb shit on the Internet along with the inherent bias of us. I could throw some numbers at you to back this up and recent studies, but people just believe what they are gonna believe and most won’t change their mind regardless of any information, cuz they already made up their mind on something probably not based on facts.
the goal in two years needs to be to get from under that contract at all costs
Team needs to take some lessons from the rangers about getting players that don’t want to move to move
As I recall…
The Rangers healthy scratched Trouba and threatened to put him on waivers so he eventually relented and accepted a trade.
Things were more amicable with Kreider.
https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/new-duck-kreider-discusses-the-trade-to-anaheim
Trouba=NTC
Nurse=NMC
What really makes these games almost unwatchable for me are the stars and what looks like “I’m too good for this” plays like constant Bouchard flubs and missed assignments, huge lazy turns and lack of consistent backchecking from McDrai, and the lack of give a f*ck in McDavid finishing or capitalizing on his chances. I’m sorry but compared to a couple years ago, he hardly drives to the net or seem hungry to score and it’s hard to see such talent not engaged
They’ve been to the final 2 years in a row these guys are more mentally tired then physically. This is why you give the young guns more rope they’re fresh as daisies use and abuse them for heavens sake. What K.K is doing to Howard is almost a sin. This Kid can score give him more PP. Let Savoie drive to the net SH I know he would get the odd Shortie. These Kids are doing what the Coach is asking of them. The defensively game comes first where I say let the Kids run wild find out if they have that star quality instead of this trap style of shit that is barely watchable. Sather is rolling his eyes at this chicken shit game they’re playing.
Couldn’t agree more on all points. And to be fair, I really don’t care what the stars look like in Oct/Nov if they 110% show up in the playoffs which they do. Give the minutes to the hungry players wanting to prove themselves
Yes, I like this discussion as well. And will add that I 100% believe the big guns will show up, but at the current rate of player utilization, the supporting cast may be very thin.
If somebody is having good shifts the 1st period give him more minutes over a struggling teammate every person has good and bad days K.K seems to not have a feel for this.
I think coaching has been very poor this year.The team looks very disjointed. Its hard to create a team concept when its the same players getting all the icetime and your third and fourth liners sitting on the the bench without defined roles. Further to this point,its not are bottom 6 costing us games,its our top six.Its hard to take a coach serious when accountability is a 2 pronged sword. Stars are immune to it,and our plumbers are held accountable at a much higher standard. Hard to feel like your part-of a “TEAM” sitting on-the bench. The rookies should be playing more and with skill. Savoie took some time to adjust to the ahl and then lit up in the second half of the season.As far as Howard,if he is playing with one of Macdavid or Draisaitl,he is not the carring the puck into the offensive zone,it’s the stars. He is a shooter and knows how to find soft ice. I believe that is what we got him for,not to go end to end. Jmo.
Exactly great post . Knobby has it on his brain that the rooks and youngins have to come up from the bottom 6. He is misusing both those kids. Philp as well plays a great game and sits out. How can they get any confidence
I agree with you and also believe Philp hasn’t been given a fair opportunity being in and out of the lineup even if he scores and plays well.
I wish we had Quenneville. The Ducks are a fun team to watch. He might even get them into the Playoffs if the Goaltending holds up.
The Ducks are the highest scoring team in the league by a fair margin.
Even if Dostal comes back to earth a bit, they should be a playoff team.
Quenelle has his Kane (Cutter Gauthier) and Toews (Leo Carlsson) although these Ducks are much bigger and a brace of talented young D just getting established.
Hell, even hoary vets like Chris Kreider (PPG) Jacob Trouba (3G 8P in 12GP) and Troy Terry (5G 15P 12 GP) are having a renaissance under Quenneville.
The Ducks next 4 games are against elite teams…Dallas, Vegas, Winnipeg and Colorado which should indicate if they can hang with the big boys.
He also has the panache to tell our superstars to get their heads out of ass. His resume gives him the credibility to this.
This is just so over simplistic on what it would take for Ike Howard to play with Leon Draisaitl. Howard, I agree, can likely get to the soft ice and has an NHL caliber shot. But at this stage in his career he can do literally NONE of the other things in the job description. Look at what Podkolzin has to do.
You like Howard containing Nate MacKinnon on the backcheck? How about when he closes out on the point against Cale Makar? How about when he receives a rim pass on the breakout and needs to move the puck to Leon while Jaccob Slavin is pinching down the wall on him? How about when Phil Danault takes away Leon on the neutral zone carry and Howard has do it himself? How about his puck retrievals against Quinn Hughes? How about keeping plays alive in the ozone against Colton Parayko?
He’s currently matched up against the Luke Glendenning and Adam Erne’s of the world and taking on water.
Playing top 6 is fantasy.
How will know if he can or cannot do what your implying. He has never been given the chance. Furthermore to your statement,he wasn’t brought in to be the defensive conscience on whatever line he is on. He was brought in to put the biscuit in the net. Very few players can do what you’re expecting him to do against the cream of the crop in the NHL. I see all our current players struggle with what you’re stating including our superstars.
So to keep it simple none of our players should play top six including our superstars because they all struggle to do what you expect a raw rookie to do 15 games into his career.
The team is better and will play better, I have no doubt. The issue is that when they do “turn it up” will it be enough?
Off season is GM’s turn to shine. Bowman did well but is he really honest with what Oilers roster needed? Bowman built a fast team in Chicago for cup runs.
Are the Oilers honest with their identity? It seems they think just “more goals” will do it and they go pursue. Are they honest with why they came up second best?
To me it wasn’t about more goals, it was about winning more puck battles.
These doldrum games, if we allow for players having hangover or call it whatever, these doldrum games are when coach needs to shine. Get his depth sorted and set, Get roles and systems. Develop youth ready for post season …….goaltending …ect
This is why Im disappointed. Not worried about the standings right now. Not worried that star players wont show up. Im worried that coach and the depth, when they do show up, they will not have been prepared, developed, learned, and we really have little growth to get over the top.
Going through the motions from top to bottom. Bad habits uncorrected. Systems faltering. Bring in new players, bring back vets, won’t make a difference. Bowman, Knobluach, Jackson need to lead and they do not look to be doing so.
And with respect to Philp and Tomacek, there’s just such a low ceiling.
What would be the path to legit success with Tomacek? He’s gotta be 10th percentile for speed and isn’t at all physical so his path is as an offense only middle six winger that scores really well at even strength. Essentially Jack Roslovic who was a healthy scratch last year. Again, we’re talking MILES from being even what Jack Roslovic is and he’s 29 years old.
Philp is what, 27? He doesn’t seem to kill penalties and he’s also quite slow. I do like his details and he’s added some physicality. So again, his top end seems to be Curtis Lazar and that’s if develops.
I dunno, i just think a lot of wasted breath about 3 guys (Howard, Tomacek and Philp)who should be locked away to develop in the AHL and forgotten about until they kick the door down like Savoie and Regula.
And if Philp in particular has “nothing more to learn” in the AHL then he is what he is, a nearly finished product who should be content as a 12-13-14 guy.
this is so accurate.
Why not accept the mistakes of high ceiling players like savoie and howard and make that investment so they have learned by the playoffs/seasons to come.
why focus on trying to help philp become curtiz lazar when we already have curtis lazar at home.
I’d say the eye test has to matter a bit here. You can’t watch Howard and think he’s even remotely ready to play top-9 minutes in a Stanley Cup run. He can’t even get a zone entry with possession, these huge and mobile defenders are eating him up. Suggesting he should get time with McDavid or Leon “to show what he can do” is ludicrous. He’s got a great release…cool…but cmon.
This month, with the injuries helping, is to make sure a proud (cocky) guy sees with his own eyes just how far away he is from helping so that he takes his reassignment as seriously as a heart attack.
Savoie did that, kicked out the jams, and is STILL finding the jump massive.
How does a player actually get involved into a game when you’re maybe going to get 1 or 2 shifts a period, it’s next to impossible for veterans let alone rookies.
If Howard is alongside McDavid or Leon, who is actually going to be carrying the puck into the zone entry? It’s not going to be Howard 95% of the time, Howard’s job would be to find the soft spots, receive passes and fire at will.
He’s never been given a actually opportunity to do this, he got one lucky broken shift coming out of the penalty box with Leon and did exactly what I’ve described. Found a soft spot, put the puck into the net.
Goal scoring is the most difficult job in hockey, he can do it.
Savoie like every other forward has no idea what line or who he’ll be playing with on any given shift, this is awful. The entire offense is in the toilet because of it.
This is 100% correct.
How do you know he’s not ready? Has he been given an extended opportunity with either of our stars. So reading between the lines no rookie should be given the same opportunity as our proven veterans,ie Frederic,Mangiapane etc because they have absolutely knocked it out of the park with their gifted opportunities because they are VETERANS.Hard as a young player to play loose when you know your one mistake away from being benched. But as a veteran I guess you get unlimited chances regardless of how many times you screw up. You must be a Holland deciple.
Apparently Edmonton has a strict rule about Marination. A 22 year-old that won the Hobey Baker must be marinated for years and turned into a checking winger.
Its the first week of November, not mid-April.
I would presume a rookie would progress his game from November until the playoffs – the point of development in real time.
Howard is NOT a babyfaced 18 year old rookie…he turns 22 in a few months.
He spent 3 seasons playing against men in the NCAA developing his game.
Rookie Scoring Leaders
Ivan Demidov 19
Matthew Schaefer 18
Zeev Buim 19
Jimmy Snuggerud 21
Emmitt Finnie 20
Oliver Kapanen 22 (4 goals 7 points)
Benner Sennecke 19
Ryan Leonard 20
Matthew Wood 18
Arsen Gritsyuk 24 (4th round pick.)
The first week of November.
Not really a fair statement as he is not getting the icetime or the opportunity that these other players are getting.You might want to check the icetime each player is getting as well as prime opportunities such as power play and playing with better players.
You might want to consider that they earned those opportunities.
There are only two players that weren’t playing against men as you put it on your list. Also some played pro in other leagues.Easy to nitpick!
That has absolutely nothing to do with the conversation I was having but good work.
I thought Bownan would give the young guns more of a rope than Holland who gutted many a young hopeful. Holland only dealt with Vets except Larkin I’m starting to get bad vibes from Bowman as he needs to fill his Coach in on a plan in this condensed season.
The real question in all of this is, is what they are currently doing working for anyone?
Savoie and Howard playing 8-10 minutes a night isn’t in the mind set of let’s help these guys learn.
Arguing that they shouldn’t be in the top 6 because they haven’t shown that they can do all the things is a poor argument when they aren’t being given the opportunity to do all the things consistently. You don’t learn by doing something once and not succeeding and then not doing it again for a few games.
The guys need to be coached not managed. You put them in a situation to fail and learn from it and coach them through it.
I don’t disagree in premise but would note that Savoie is averaging 13 minute per game.
A team with McDavid, Draisaitl, and whoever else you want to include as elite offensive talent; is ranked 28th in 5v5 goals for /60. All while overplaying the ‘stars’.
So is this erosion in real time? Coaching? or other?
It’s Coaching we have a better defence group then most think. For some reason we’re not pushing the puck up ice quickly enough. Low event hockey is our style now. I think K.K went to this style because of our weak Goaltending. We rarely win in a shootout as the last shot is usually in our net. It’s not the below average Goaltending that’s killing us it’s the timing of the goals. We could easily be 10-4-1 with timely saves .Lets face it Pickard is a borderline back-up but he can still make big saves at the right time whereas Skinner is way too inconsistent for the style of play we employ. It looks like Bowman struck out with Ingram it’s time for another Ingram type transaction. Bowman needs to fix this Know as every point we donate now may come back to haunt us too close out the regular season.
Mcdavid is tied for the lead league in points, Draisaitl is tied for the league lead in goals.
5×5 offensive black hole is on the coaching at the moment.
McDavid is 29th in 5×5 scoring, and this is with the Oilers having placed between 1 and 3 more games then most other teams.
I’m still trying to figure out Bowman’s offseason plan. His 2 big signings were Fredric and Mangi, not exactly goal scorers. All these years later and still needing a 2RW.
What about Savoie?
I know skill needs skill, but 15 games without a 5v5 point is quite a run, no?
Does anyone produce 5×5 with Henrique as their center? Or Tomasek? And now a broken Philp?
Would love more but not expecting too much in his current alignment.
Henrique is currently 1.38 points per hour. That’s actually a tick better than McDavid.
McDavid is at 1.37 points per hour which is a ghastly number for the captain. The worst 5v5 scoring slump of his entire career.
Are you really comparing Henrique to Mcdavid. I think that’s a bit of a stretch.
Both are currently producing at low-end 3rd liner rates at 5v5.
McDavid’s previous low ebb was 1.91 points per hour over a 12 game sample.
Either way, Henrique isn’t really an excuse for Savoie having zero points at 5v5. He’s got 35 minutes left till he hits 200.
Henrique has registered a point in 5 games, 10 games without.
His production as 3C has been a dogs breakfast last season and this season so far. I’m not expecting his wingers to produce much riding alongside him.
There’s zero evidence he elevates anyone 5×5, he’s not going to center a scoring line.
In the last 5 games McDavid has 5 even strength points, Henrique’s total for the entire season against far lesser competition.
All I’m saying is I’m not expecting Savoie to produce in his current assignment.
Holloway and McLeod, didn’t they do okay in the bottom 6 before earning more time?
He started slow in the Ahl as well,but once he got comfortable he was a point a game player. Not saying this will happen in the NHL,but I would like to see him get more opportunity to play with more skill and find out if his game will translate and grow like it did in the Ahl.
I hear ya, but if he hits 20 games without a point at 5v5…
At some point, you have to be a marginal threat to score.
To put it differently, he’s currently in a 3-way tie of 229th in league for forwards over 150 minutes at 5v5, with zero points.
i understand what your saying ,it took time in the Ahl as well and then he produced. Playing with Henrique is not the same as playing with Mcdrai. Way better scoring chances and opportunities. Also playing with Frederic that offensive dynamo is also not helping. Savoie has created lots of opportunities for both of his linemates. So his zero points at 5vs 5 are a little misleading. I’m sure Mcdrai would have capitalized on a few of the chances he created by being dogged on the puck and creating turnovers that should have lead to some 5vs 5 scoring.Sometimes it isn’t what your not doing but of the help you are also getting from your linemates.
He needs marination time send him back to Bakersfield with Philp.
It happened – Berezkin scored a goal today (and a primary assist).
I have no idea why the iceman is likely to be sent down when tomasek and philp remain on the team, i would much rather allow the higher ceiling player to develop, learn from true pros, and round out his game and gradually increase his minutes rather than waste those “mistake moments” on players who do not have a high offensive ceiling.
I am not a systems expert by any means but i do wonder if there is a systematic change that is resulting in the loss of offense.
It seems that players are not exiting the zone through the center of the ice and are instead entering the zone on either wing, this results in a lot of perimeter play.
Curious to know what others see but early on in knobbys tenure we did see a concerted effort to enter the zone through the center of the ice which would then draw the defense and the opposing forwards to the center and allow the wingers more space and time to make plays. This seems to have gone by the wayside and the focus is instead on more perimeter play and point shots from dmen?
He’s getting sent down because most of the Oiler fan base did not see Kurri-Anderson-Arnott be allowed to make mistake while still succeeding. Sather identified young talent and played them over burnt out veterans or journeyman players. Don’t kid yourself the Marination crowd is strong and yes I do believe a fan base has some degree of influence on a Coach and G.M when things are going poorly.
if the fanbase had any degree of influence when things are going poorly then Darnell nurse would be on robidas island.
Remember how well Nurse played when he was character attacked by a couple of reporters in the Vegas series. These people are human being the mob went instantly after Jack Campbell who I really liked as a Man and a Goalie. Jack basically left town ss a broken Man. I believe the fan base can alter a G.M’s and Coaches decisions.
With Knoblauch coming up through junior then the AHL, I figured he’d be pretty good at bringing along young players.
He hates them, he hates their shoes, he hates their music, he hates their hip lingo.
Bowman needs to figure out if he wants to keep acquiring young talent or turn into Kenny and open a Zellers restaurant for his coach.
Knoblauch has coached them to two SCF’s. He deserves & has earned a little more respect.
Knoblauch has lost 2 Stanley cup finals in a row, is running his top stars into the ground, has no offensive identity, can’t protect a lead, doesn’t give any of the young guys any time whatsoever to show what they got.
Knoblauch is trying to reinvent the wheel, and will be called out for it.
He’s pulling a Woody who had all the time in the world for the youngsters then flip flopped to pounding a way younger Leon-Connor into the ground. Nobody likes ice-hogs you don’t build a unison group that way. We are blowing leads because our stars are tired by the 50 minute mark and don’t get me started how bad they look in OT.
Chicken or egg? Driver or passenger?
Knoblauch was painfully outcoached by Florida 2 years in a row. It was disappointing the first time, but the second time showed he’s not figuring out how to get past the Panthers. Maurice complained about reffing after game 2 of the 2025 series and it was all downhill from there.
I guess making it to the SCF isn’t much of an accomplishment. I’m sorry I just find this all too irritating. Chicken or egg? Driver or passenger? REally???
No one is discrediting Knoblauch making the finals two years in a row, Congratulations coach.
Maurice ate his lunch, took his milk money, and hasn’t seemed to have recovered since.
The entire bench is now Knoblauch’s guys, it’s not working.
His handling of his rookies has been nauseating, his handling of damn near all his players has been head scratching at best.
This is the window, concerns need to be voiced in order to keep it open longer, or all you’ll have left is ghosts.
Ok I say this, the coach gets too much credit when it’s the players that play the game on the ice. Maybe it isn’t so much that Maurice ate Knoblauch’s lunch but more that the Florida players, not only ate the Oiler players lunch, but stole their milk money also.
Kk didn’t adjust,and that is on the coach. Mcdavid came out and said as much. We kept trying to do the same thing over and over without success. So yes that does fall on the coaching.Im just curious as to what Kk and his staff are doing so well in your eyes that we shouldn’t be questioning his decisions.
The coach did not employ the same systems that steamrolled the west conference, he changed tactics and went home the loser for it.
I believe the team is built for McDavid. I’m so happy he’s here for 2-plus more years. One thing I have to say is that it wouldn’t hurt my feelings to see the C on Leon who seems to have the Messier quality in him.
“I’m beginning to wonder who is coaching this team.”
Are McD calling the shots on their ice time?
No they’re just hockey players.
It might run much deeper.
Former agent – Jeff Jackson – POHO
Former junior coach – Kris Knoblauch
Of course your star players have influence on who they like playing with. It’s FIFO with the core as Leon pimped Podkolzin tires and I believe Frederic immediately fell into the core.
More concern around player acquisition.
Do you think Jeff Jackson’s signing players like Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner and Corey Perry were done in isolation?
You need to also consider shot suppression. Vs. St. Louis 3 shots for the blues in the third – 2 goals. Vs. Dallas 5 shots in the third – 2 goals…
Of course. And we need to allow for the fact McDavid’s five-on-five GF-60 is going to improve. However, if Knoblauch’s goal is suppression at all costs, then McDavid and Draisaitl are not going to deliver at expected offensive levels and I think you need to spend more than $3.6 million on your goalie tandem. If IS because Oilers for them to do that kind of thing, though.
but Janmark needs to play – trusted minutes.
Legit question: to the rookies and young players (Savoie, Philp, Howard) really make any more mistakes than the veterans?
Maybe Nuge but anyone else? Maybe Henrique?
McDavid and Drai make mistakes but they do make up for them with elite offensive play.
Frederic, Mang, Roslovic, Tomasek, Janmark and Kap when they play, all make mistakes.
Coaching staff doesn’t require mistake-free hockey from the vets, only the rookies it seems.
McDavid and Draisaitl (plus Bouchard) turn over pucks partly because they have it all the time. It’s difficult to balance the turnover books in real time, but those three men generate so much, and own the puck so many times, it’s fair to place them in a different category imo.
This is generally true and I excluded them from the conversation as they clearly create more than they give up. I put them in a separate category.
At the same time, those three, in particular McDavid and Bouchard, make many more mistakes that aren’t associated with turnovers – McDavid makes back check and coverage mistakes with regularity.
Mistakes happen all the time, there is no such thing as mistake free hockey. The veterans know when they make mistakes because they were rookies once and didn’t know any better. When rookies make mistakes they need to know the consequence.
Go ahead give Howard more ice time with McDavid & Leon and see how many more mistakes he makes with the elevated ice time.
I would hope that you could read the initial post and acknowledge that McDavid and Drai were excluded from the group via: “McDavid and Drai make mistakes but they do make up for them with elite offensive play.
If that wasn’t clear on the face of my post, I apologize, but I don’t think anyone could read the post and honestly infer that the point as to give Howard and Savoie more ice time than McDavid and Draisaitl.
If the vets “know better”, shouldn’t they be held more accountable than the rookies who, as you say, don’t know any better?
Janmark doesn’t *need* to play. Especially trusted minutes. His 5v5 and defensive zone play eroded a lot over the last two years. Dennis King highlighted a lot of this, and frankly his play in the preseason was uninspiring. He needs to be traded for future considerations and taken away from KK before he hurts the team with his play.
my question is. seeing as he is such a “PK Specialist” would a team that has a horrific PK bring him in to help out. Looking at a few teams such as Minnesota, Ottawa, Columbus etc that have horrific Pks.
I would be intrigued to package tomasek and janmark + for one of the below.
Nick Cousins…. plays with an edge, dirty, runs his mouth, physical, adds a dimension and a swagger this team lost with kane/perry, cup pedigree.
Yegor Chinakhov… wicked shot, decent metrics, wants out, can imagine it would be a little bit more expensive than the other options.
Isac Lundestrom… limited offense but at least he is good defensively, can win a faceoff, would be a clear upgrade on Noah Philp.
A trade bringing something useful back would be nice, but for me that is icing on the cake of removing a player the coach plays who should not be on the ice.
Every time I see Cousins play I wish he was an Oiler. Big body, plays hard.
I agree but I don’t know if the coaching staff agrees.
This is where the manager needs to step in, imo. Frankly, I can’t believe KK is so offside with the summer plan and refusing to play guys who the manager paid a mint to get.
There was an interview in the last weeks where Knoblauch mentioned 50 minutes as the minimum sample size for looking at xGF%. It reminded me of Dalllas Eakins’ attempt to integrate analytics into his coaching decisions.
Ostensibly, Knoblauch is looking to maximize xGF% in the published line combinations. He turns to the blender, which is mostly 97 with 29 when he needs to score.
This way of thinking has consequences, including fading the youngsters & pairing 2 with 97, no matter how volatile the latter may be.
We tend to look at lines and pairings separately but my feeling is that the coaches are also looking a lot at how the defenders pair with the forwards, which has a very substantial impact on forward fancies.
Best thing for Howard is to go to Bakersfield and play a ton. The kid can’t be on the 4th line here getting minimal minutes and should be playing with a C man that is a set up guy and likes to pass as this kid is a sniper. The thing is he has to play with a good set up guy like Marjala.
I don’t think Howard got much of a chance here playing with a top C man. Every time he was moved up the Blender master didn’t give him much of a chance IMO.
So,let’s hope when ge goes down he plays a lot and with a playmaker.
Perhaps but there are lots of options in between “4th line” and “Bako” – such as, I don’t know, giving him a bit of time (more than a shift here and there) with a puck distributing center like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
We’re also seeing regression with Knoblauch. Every coach before him has just radiated to overplaying 97 and 29, and the narrative has always been a lack of depth scoring. Knoblauch is just fulfilling his destiny. That being said, he’s earned plenty of rope here to do what he sees fit.
The difference with the current cast and characters is that the depth on the wings right now is the best it’s been in exactly one forever. Hyman’s imminent return only adds to that. Spread out the icetime.
I don’t think even the kids have done enough wrong to lose Knoblauch’s trust. Rather than them needing to earn it, maybe give them some trust and let them prove they don’t deserve it before taking it away.
They have done that in the past and suffered through growing pains with the likes of Hall, Eberle, Yakupov to name a few. Even Draisaitl had a brief stint on the farm. But times have changed since the days of darkness.
Why no Jesse he was the King of flops.
Those guys were asked to carry all the mail way too soon. They were the stars, and in way over their heads at that time. The ask of the current support players is much less.
I couldn’t agree more with this post.100% factually correct. More so then cowboys take!
It was a different era completely. Of course they were asked to carry the mail too soon there was no other choice. This team doesn’t operate like that thank God.