These are my ‘reasonable expectations’ guesses for the 2017-18 season. McDavid would finish 1.32 pts-game, followed by Draisaitl (.897), Nurse (.317) and Puljujarvi (.308). Those were the days, when the team was buildng with youth and decisions about who would play on the skill lines more predictable.
I’m running the numbers now for the 2026-27 season, and there’s uncertainty in more places than normal. We can count on Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard to deliver impact seasons. Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Jason Dickinson and Ryan Shea should play every night and produce at a significant level.
After that? There’s a large group of players who may not play an entire season due to age, ineffectiveness and injury. Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Trent Frederic, Mattias Janmark, Jake Walman and Connor Murphy fall under this umbrella.
Then ther are the young players, like Ike Howard, Josh Samanski, Devon Levi and Damien Carfagna. The roster can be written in pen until the final pieces, but that’s not the story here. The story is the opening night roster will see change during the season. Possibly a large amount of change.
What changed from last year to make the predictions so difficult? Let’s start with the skill lines. I had seven players for six positions (C-LW-RW for top two lines) in August of 2025. 97, 29, Zach Hyman, Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin and Ike Howard. I had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on a depth line.
Well that was a mistake, Nuge should be on the McDavid line. Last year, RNH scored 1.86 points-60 with McDavid, while Zach Hyman posted 1.74 points-60 with the captain. Meanwhile, Matt Savoie delivered 2.14 points-60. Ike Howard was at 2.01 with the captain in less than 30 minutes.
Who did McDavid score best with at five-on-five? Savoie. McDavid was 3.03 points-60.
Who scored well with Draisaitl? Podkolzin was 1.93 points-60, Kasperi Kapanen 3.2 points-60. Howard was 11.75 with 29, in the time it takes to walk around a city block at a casual pace.
Who do you have as top six forwards this year? My RE skill forwards are McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Savoie, Podkolzin, Howard and Kapanen. The only change is Kapanen in and Andrew Mangipane out, year over year.
What’s the problem? I can’t run it that way. There’s only two centers and Mike Babcock, Stan Bowman, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have all said 97-29 will play together at five-on-five.
So, it’s the Nuge! Yes. Here’s something you should know. At five-on-five last season, away from McDavid and Draisaitl, Nuge’s line scored 1.6 goals-60, via Natural Stat Trick.
Oh. With a 37 percent goal share.
Oh.
Canada just donating the Hlinka Gretzky Cup gold medal game – up 3-0 in the first.
until some penalty trouble (silly one b Maddox Schultz, too aggressive with his stick already down an man trying to back-track) gets the US back in the game….
@PredsNHL
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I don’t think he could use any of us as a reference:
“Dashingsilverfox says:April 24, 2015 at 8:57 pm
No, he isn’t.”
Who could forget this gem, equivocating the skillset and career trajectories of Brogan Rafferty and Evan Bouchard.
Good times 😉
I think Babcock’s comments on 97 and 29 playing together were along the lines of if they can get good matchups at home then he would run it, but overall it would depend on the situation. I don’t think he would commit to doing that all season even before training camp.
Agreed. Smith said playing against them together when on the road was hard because you have less control on match ups, easier at home. I expect and hope to see more open minded snd mature coaching than we’ve seen in the last while
Probably the biggest issue with not splitting them is not having more game time with a world class player on the ice. When they are apart it reminds me of the 80’s team. First you get to try to stop Gretzky and the mad skill, then you get a power forward line still skilled. That’s a tough go
I still remain convinced that if this team stays hardheaded regarding keeping the glimmers together it will be for other reasons than trying to put the best TEAM together.
Separately they elite line driving C’s that immediately make their wingers better. Having them together, IMHO opinion just dilutes this roster depth immensely.
Also, I think Nuge is at a stage in his career where he’s likely more impactfull as an elite 3rd liner than an average top 6 option.
The concept is that if they play Mcdavid & Draisaitl together it will allow more ice time for the rest of the roster. McDavid & Draisaitl will need to work on their defensive play on a consistent basis while continuing their attacking style offensively. While the rest of the roster maintains solid defensively and works on creating more offensively.
What might work well is if they could find a second line center, other than Nuge , either via trade, or internally. Because it’s possible, as you say, Nuge might be at that stage in his career where he’s likely more impactful as an elite third liner. My thought is they might consider Matt Savoie who actually is a natural center. Crazy as it may sound, they might try.
Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Savoie-Kapanen
Nuge-Dickinson-Joseph
Dach-Samanski-Frederic
IF Howard makes the cut, maybe (Howard-Savoie-Podz) and place Kapanen on the third unit with Nuge & Dickinson. For the crowd that believes Howard is 100%. Or of course for example, they could trade for Sydney Crosby , who could possibly be an interesting fit.
Maybe Babcock is just trolling Oiler fans at 63 years old. I would say Mike is done eating all the shit sandwiches that he’s had to endure the last 5 years. We have a new Iron Mike in town. I’ve never liked Babcock but the shit hurled at him the last few years is over the top. Mike Commodore was bottom of the barrel D when he signed in Detroit for this player to whine and snivel endlessly about a coach supposedly pulling the carpet under a 6-7 depth defenceman is actually comical. Whatever I think about bringing in outside G.M’s in Pete-Ken-Stan none of these 3 are criminals neither is Babcock.
So:
“ Ike Howard was at 2.01 with the captain in less than 30 minutes.”
and
“Howard was 11.75 with 29, in the time it takes to walk around a city block at a casual pace.
Perhaps using, a much more well rounded 2-way player after real development last season, in Issac Howard in the top 6 makes sense…..?
Seems like it should be with McDavid if we want to leave Podz with Leon, to keep Howard on his natural wing.
LOL… Or maybe they can just use a much more rounded 2-way player in the top six.
Who is this “much more rounded 2-way player”?
Is it Kapapen, who was the worst defensive forward on the team in 2024/25 after being claimed (better last year, acknowledged)?
This is the exact sport they acquired Howard to play in and he’s done everything possible to prove ready for the opportunity. Burying him without given him that earns opportunity is how you lose these guys.
There isn’t even anyone blocking him, not really.
I was making a joke. I’m sorry I forgot you have no sense of humour.
There’s so many possibilities and you think he’s the only one.
Don’t worry the cream always rises to the top
Howard is 22 you need to see what you have in him. I really don’t know if you can effectively have 2 smallish forwards playing top 6 that need to generate points 5 on 5 excluding Savoie penalty killing this might be asking too much. The NHL is a grind it’s easy to get in a rut without the PP to get a player going. To get the most of Ike he needs to play with skill and he needs to see PP time. I really hope we give the PP #2 some real minutes. I would love to see Walman running the point aka Bouchard style and I would love to see Podkolzin as net front with Ike in the trigger position Savoie could be working the Nuge spot. Is it possible that in the long run it could backfire having Savoie and Ike in positions to point as it might be better to sign Savoie and Howard long term at 2022 prices. Since the offer sheeting is back in play can Savoie be offer sheeted next July while Ike receiving the offer sheet 2 July’s from now?
First Half: 17, 10-13-23 (1.35 pts-game) 23-10 (70 pct) EV goal share
2nd Half: 30, 14-13-27 (0.9 pts-game), 22-32 (41 pct) EV goal share
—
It’s true the Condors were less effective in the second half of the season at even strength, and the anecdotal reports had him much improved. However, when we use phrases like “much more well rounded 2-way player” for a player with 29 NHL games, it should give us pause.
I watched pretty much all of the Howard’s games on the Condors and I am highly confident he’s a much more well-round player coming to camp this year than last.
I’m sure you saw the word he put in and he steps he took, right? I use that eye test to trump goal share in the American Chaos League.
Sure, he absolutely improved. He contested more pucks and he didn’t jailbreak. However, I’m not an NHL scout or coach, so would suggest there are limitations in what a fan can identify. I know you are confident in your abilities to scout players, but I’m pushing back on sweeping statements. He’s earned an NHL chance, let’s see if the coaches see him as a player who can face elite competition at this point in his young career.
Would Rem Murray be an acceptable setpoint for howard or savoie?
I think Rem the Gem was unique to both Howard and Savoie. He was a center who played wing often, had offensive ability but was asked to handle the two-way chores and could slide in everywhere. He had great utility.
He wasn’t the same player offensively as Savoie or Howard. Of course, he played 10 seasons as an NHL regular, I’m not sure both Savoie and Howard enjoy that kind of sustain. Rem was a bigger athlete.
Rem was our face-man and shutdown Centre. I know it’s kinda pointless comparing Centres to Wingers yet Howard-Savoie remind me of Mike Comrie.
Great size/skill comp, but I think Howard might be able to handle forechecking better and flat out know Savoie will be a more complete player.
Injuries cost Comrie a shitload of goals. Mike had accumulated 61 by age 23 playing a harder position in Centre. Mike retired at 31 after undergoing 3 hip injuries costing him a shitload of goals before the age of 31. Comrie could flat out with his quick hands bury the puck on most goalies. 168 goals is what Mike ended up with what’s the over under on Savoie and Howard reaching that pinnacle. I thought Howard might be a sniper but as we all know smallish skilled wingers spending a year in the AHL at his age is not good at all. The O’Reilly deal is starting to look like someone got snookered.
No doubt Comrie had great hands and was a pure scorer. I think he was challenged on the defensive side, and of course the injuries (as you said) had a major impact.
It’s hard to believe that we were a $100,000 away from getting a player that is still in the league with 465 goals. Holland had one Cup with the Cap and he was tight against the Cap along with heavy salaries on LTIR. Meanwhile back in Edmonton we were rubbing two nickles together just to get to the floor of the Cap. We were only a few players that could of been bought on those 90’s teams from winning a Cup or two kinda like the Kings did. I can’t wait for the Cup Final when Babcock faces Maurice.
Agreed. Your point “…had offensive ability but was asked to handle the two-way chores and could slide in everywhere.” was something that I think he took on and grew into, considering he was racking up points in NCAA.
NHL has changed a lot the past 5 years, so even though Ike and Mr Savoie don’t have the weight as Rem, the may be able to fit the same role. I think to be a lock on the top two lines and fit what the Oil need is, a 2 way acumen may need to be chased hard by the young blokes.
It’ll be an interesting season, especially for Ike, and the new coach (spits). While Im against sending away either of the two for other pieces this year, it could happen.
Most will not like it and the “Nuge is not a center” and “Nuge is not a top 6 player” crowds will be very upset but I think we need to prepare ourselves for Nuge at 2C for material time at home.
Our coaching staff hasn’t really pulled any punches alluding to McDavid and Drai playing together at home – no, maybe not all the time but more than we seem to talk about. Unless/until they bring in a better option in-season, that leaves Nuge at 2C.
I believe that Savoie is the likely choice with McDavid and Drai in these situations which leaves: Podz/Nuge/Hyman. Lets not forget: Kane/Nuge/Hyman crushed the stars in the WCF in 2025 – are one season removed from that.
I know, Nuge struggle last season, and his 5 on 5 production is often muted. At the same time, he did not struggle all season to my memory – I recall him having a very good start to the season but his season flipped and his game really cratered essentially right at his 1000th game. I’ve hear speculation (reputable) of a hand injury.
I look for a rebound from a healthy Nuge (and another guy benefiting from the full 5 months off).
Who knows? Maybe Savoie can center the second line when they load up McDry. There’s so much we pretend to know, but really we don’t know anything for sure.
Babcock is the wildcard here. We always hear that these guys can play C and these D can play their opposite side and it never happens for long
I think MB is going to see the players differently than we’re used to. Maybe he sees Savoie’s smarts and two way game and puts him in the middle. Maybe he figures out wingers that make it viable for Nuge to be in the middle
The last coach didn’t stray far from his initial positions for long, or give guys time to adjust to things
The Nuge scored 22 and 21 5v5 points the last two years. While playing most of his minutes with the best player in the world.
Nuge may be the best option to run a second line when the load up happens.
however I believe there’s a solid chance that a better option may emerge.
Yes it’s not my preferred way to go, but there hasn’t been a lot of creativity and often a lack of winger depth to do it well
We do know that the Oilers organization has never played Savoie at center except for 4-5 AHL games when the Condors were decimated with injury, personal leave and call-ups (and, I believe 3 shifts one NHL game before they moved off it).
We don’t KNOW they won’t pivot now but I think we know….
What we don’t know is how Babcock will see this group of players. I think you’re probably getting it right, because of who they drafted. They seem to want to be big down the middle or elite skilled
Sure. It’s almost time for the Elks game. It’s been fun.
“What you talkin, about, Willis?”
Should Dickinson be in this group? He’s had two healthy seasons (and one of those he missed four games) but generally misses 20 games a year.
We keep waiting for the cliff, but Ekholm refuses to take more than a tiny step, last season Ekholm:
He and Bouchard continue to form a top 5 pairing in the league. I do agree, fading some minutes and maybe some leverage may be a good idea and don’t disagree with him in this group – I just want to note how effective he remained last regular season.
I kind of figure that as we age we play smarter not harder.
My results confirm your figuring: low percentage “hard,” high percentage “smart.”
I first read these a few years ago, but sharing for those who are interested in reading about NHL players, and how age correlates to performance. Many of you may be familiar with this info, but I think it is worth a re-read.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
https://hockeyviz.com/txt/age22
https://medium.com/@mattdesfosses/the-hockey-aging-curve-b0f33b91d1e4
https://www.jaroslavbezdek.com/age-curves
These are great. Thanks for posting.
A few conclusions (that we kinda already knew):
1) Wingers who can score announce themselves by age 22 or earlier. By age 27 or 28 they’re unlikely to continue scoring at their established pace. Beware paying for Alex Tuch-types when the next generation of scorers will emerge.
2) Defensemen take longer to develop as they hone their craft, and start to decline around age 30. The Oilers were right to sail on from Darnell Nurse but crazy to have given the bag to Jake Walman instead of Philip Broberg.
3) The ageing curve is going to compound slowly on the Oilers given their current makeup. This is likely to be their peak year with Nuge and Hyman still productive while Savoie and Podkolzin step into their prime. The Edmonton Oilers really have a 2-year window to truly contend unless management can somehow substitute older vets for young pisscutters. The contracts to players like Walman, Frederic, and Dickinson give me pause on whether it’s possible. Expect a massive hangover once Evan Bouchard’s current deal is up in 2029.
@lt
this video is off topic for this post, but lately you’ve been talking a lot about players aging out and injury. I thought Gary Vitti’s perspective from his time as a trainer for the Lakers was pretty interesting. You can likely skip the start, but around the 9 minute mark he really starts to emphasize his key talking points about what causes injuries and how to prevent them. Sorry for always being off topic lately.
https://youtu.be/5NP0sXxxmxk?si=N15-CWjO6iUlfQN7
I found this very interesting and backs up a lot of what the new edge trainers are saying. Thanks for passing this on.
That’s great thanks. Babcock must know this some way either intuitively or from trainers etc. He said Connor was playing too much in his rookie season. We have seen the Oilers’ top players play a lot and get hurt towards season end or in playoffs
I’ve said I don’t like Connor throwing checks more than infrequently, and is mainly because of the main point that Vitti made, which is when players are tiring they are more likely to get injured. I’ve always noticed certain players in the league that have very efficient and controlled movement, usually defensemen
They don’t have to run around and when they take players out with contact it’s not off balance it’s controlled. They keep good body position, aren’t reaching, come out of the contact usually ahead of the other player. That I think is a skill set learned and practiced over a long time
When Connor hits he is often off balance, goes in back first, sphincter tightens watching it. Not all injuries can be avoided, but I think a lot can be through better training as Vitti said, and by learning to play in a way that reduces risk and is more controlled. There are times when you don’t do that and take more risk, that also crosses over with playing the system and hockey sense about when to go, but being more judicious would be a good thing. Especially for aging players. Play to fight another battle, the best ability is availability