2021-22 Game Four: Oilers at Coyotes

by Lowetide

There are five teams in this year’s NHL who are 3-0 at this time, and the list isn’t close to what anyone would have guessed a week ago. Edmonton, St. Louis, Minnesota, Buffalo and Florida are quite possibly the oddest collection of 3-0 starts this century.

No matter, the key for these teams is to keep on winning hockey games. Running the streak to five or more can give a club significant clearance for those low points that inevitably arrive. Even the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens lost two of three (vs. the Blues and Bruins) in the middle of that season.

Edmonton should win tonight, tomorrow night less certain. Heading into the first break of the season, 5-0-0 would be an attention getter.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: VCR, CAL, ANA (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • On the road to: ARI, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: VCR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-2-0, 10 points in seven games
  • Actual results: 3-0-0, six points in three games

My prediction still seems reasonable, it’s unlikely the team sweeps October. The NHL is a league that strives for competitive play, right down to referees calling the score. Can Edmonton go 5-2-0? Yes. 6-1-0? Unlikely but yes. 7-0? The dice have no memory, the Flyers kicked the Bruins to the curb last night. Chances are none of the 3-0 teams get to 7-0, but Edmonton would be one of the favourites in that group.

AFTER FIVE GAMES

  • Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-4-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-2-0, goal differential -3
  • Oilers in October 2019: 5-0-0, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in Month 1 2021: 2-3-0, goal differential -4

The first Tippett Oilers team turned the trick and with a handsome +8 goal differential to boot. Edmonton’s current goal differential after three wins (+2) is lower than you’d expect due to a couple of EN goals. Can the Oilers go 5-0?

MIKE SMITH

The Mike Smith injury sounds like something got tweaked and rest will be enough, so the timing of it (just two games in the next week) is good. It’s uncertain to me that there’s a major drop off from Smith to Mikko Koskinen, and one suspects the Finn will ably perform his duties. Stuart Skinner looks ready, several auditions this year, and as many as 10 games, would seem to be a natural progression.

BILL JAMES 10 GAMES

I’ve been watching plenty of baseball lately, and things trickle back to me from a time when that wonderful game was my top obsession. One thing that hit me yesterday was an article James wrote about the 1984 Tigers, who began the season 35-5, which is beyond wicked.

James looked at fast starts, and I believe he used 10 games into the season as the marker, and found a correlation between winning more than five games of the first 10 and strong seasons. I can’t tell you chapter and verse, do own the books but they’re in the crawl space somewhere and haven’t been accessed since 1998.

So, a baseball season is 162 games, and an NHL season 82 games. Does a fast start in the first five indicate success? Oilers two best seasons above, 2016-17 and 2019-20, saw the club make the postseason. Edmonton did it last year too, but you’ll recall goaltending issues impacted the first month of the year.

For the record, I have Edmonton finishing 45-27-10, 100 points and in second place Pacific division. When I said second place, the Golden Knights were healthy, so maybe the Oilers win the division. Edmonton was two points away from winning it in 2016-17. The last time Edmonton won the division was 1986-87, the last of six division crowns in a row. What a story that would be for fans! That 1986-87 team was the best hockey team I’ve ever seen.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s a special day on the Lowdown, as we welcome hockey insider Chris Johnston to the show. He’s @ReporterChris on twitter and is a famous reporter who gets the real stories. It’s a tough job, Johnston is the best in a very competitive business. We’ll talk Mike Smith injury, how Edmonton might solve the goalie issue later in the year, and why a fast start can make later slumps survivable. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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hunter1909

What a good, clean game.

Both teams respect and play each other fair.

Just ask Nurse lol

Munny 2.0

Re: Skinner

The actual exciting finding-out-stuff thing is Konovalov is guaranteed to get the start for Bako tomorrow night.

KassHat

So the trade was Foegele and Kassian for Bear it seems.

Munny 2.0

Four goals in four games from the third line. It’s been so long I have to ask, is that even legal? This must be some form of witchcraft.

OriginalPouzar

Well, 3.5 goals – Nuge was a big part of the Kass 5 on 5 goal last game.

Redbird62

3.67 – Foegele contributed as well taking the puck deep and getting it to Nuge.

"Steve Smith"

McDavid scoring at a 225.5-point pace.

Probably not sustainable, though; I doubt he breaks 225.

"Steve Smith"

(In fairness, the 42.9% shooting probably isn’t sustainable. But it’s fun, which is arguably better.)

Munny 2.0

So not 82 goals?

You used to be a “nice” person.

Last edited 3 years ago by Munny 2.0
Harpers Hair

Kopitar is actually scoring goals at a higher rate.

Pretty sure he can keep up a 38.5% shooting percentage.

hunter1909

You seem sure of so many things.

Last edited 3 years ago by hunter1909
Harpers Hair

Except in this case 🙂

hunter1909

Even when you pretend to be fair minded, that also is simply artificial, as your active brain constantly seeks out rhetorical obtuseness.

Bank Shot

Sorry Eeyore.

Everyone is too happy for you to drag them down into your despair with you.

Try again after a loss.

ChupaCabra

Totally sustainable. He’s been working on his shot.

Redbird62

The season of Gretzky’s streak 1983/84 he scored 153 points in 51 games and a pace of 246 for 82 games. When the streak ended he took 6 games off (he actually played hurt the last game or two of the streak) came back and finished with 87 goals and 205 points. Neither of those totals were his best but it was his best season for both goals per game and points per game capped off with the first Stanley Cup. If he hadn’t been hurt that season he might have scored 100 and gotten over 230 points.

McDavid is picking up where he left off last season and is really separating himself from the rest of the league like Gretz did in his era.

Last edited 3 years ago by Redbird62
jp

McDavid one timers are guaranteed!

Munny 2.0

With a big break after tomorrow night’s game, I can see why Tipp has no qualms with going back to Koski.

OriginalPouzar

For me, its not about fatigue going forward but fatigue going in to tomorrow night. I know its a short flight but I’m sure they won’t get to their hotel and settled until well after midnight and then tomorrow night will be Mikko’s 3rd game in 4 nights.

Combine that with the opportunity to find out more about where Skinner’s game is vis-a-vis the NHL with 8 points banked out of 8, there is a valid argument to play Skinner.

I understand Tip’s position as well and hope that Mikko plays great tomorrow night.

Munny 2.0

He’s played less than 90 minutes this season. I am not concerned with fatigue going forward. And you can hydrate on a plane as easily as your rumpus room.

There’s a question about Koski’s ability to play back-to-backs. No better time to check in and find out than with 8 points banked.

OriginalPouzar

The fatigue of playing back to back games (with travel) and 3 in 4 nights is real even if the person was fresh right before that started.

I think its more important to find out information in Stuart Skinner than information on Mikko Koskinen’s ability to play back to backs.

I’m fairly certain only one will be part of the org next season and I don’t think its the giant Fin.

Munny 2.0

That fatigue must be so real, Tipp was swayed by it. If Koski loses tomorrow, it won’t be because he was fatigued. And pretty sure the org is aware of where Skinner is at right now. Every game counts, especially against divisional opponents. Give your team the best chance to win. Do otherwise and you start losing the room.

Munny 2.0

“As a goalie, I always felt like the second game was easier because you’re already in the rhythm. But of course, there are times if you have played nine out of 10 and then there’s a back-to-back, maybe then it’s better to rest,” goaltender Mikko Koskinen, who came in for relief of Mike Smith on Tuesday and is expected to start on Thursday, said.

“Overall, I think we have been really successful in back-to-back games in the last couple of years. We know how to handle those situations. Most of the guys actually feel better in back-to-back games.”

That’s from the pre-game interview today.

Last edited 3 years ago by Munny 2.0
Genjutsu

I think the math is pretty clear that starting B2B is not a recipe for success.

There’s also myriad of other reasons to start Skinner in this spot.

kgogshig

Aktchually…airplanes are horrible environments for the human body…low oxygen and very dry. If it was legal, the whole plane would be overpressurized to 2 atmospheres and extra oxygen would be pumped into the cabin.

kgogshig

You do know that Skinner arrives at the hotel at the same time as Koskinen.

OriginalPouzar

Sure – did he play last night and on Tuesday? Nope.

There is also the important aspect of finding out more information on where Skinner is given he is a part of the organization going forward (likely).

Munny 2.0

Training Camp literally just ended. He got more minutes than any other goalie in the pre-season. They know EXACTLY where he is. It is not incumbent on the org to play him because YOU do not.

Ice Sage

VGK are the best opponent so far, we may get to see both goalies!

Last edited 3 years ago by Ice Sage
JimmyV1965

Geez, NHL reffing can be garbage. McDavid is tripped, interfered with and slashed on his first shift of the game. Three infractions and no penalty. Then he’s abused the entire game and they call him  on some crappy face off infraction.  I guess it’s progress though that it took four games for me to start bitching about the refs.

kgogshig

Bro, relax…The refs only missed 4 or 5 infractions against Mcdavid…he was only accosted once or twice a period instead of once or twice per shift.

OriginalPouzar

Tip:

Koski played really well, I’d like to see him play – we’ll need to talk to Schwartzy and the trainers but i don’t see any reason he won’t play tomorrow.

Well there you go.

Bank Shot

The demise of Duncan Keith has been greatly exaggerated.

I really like that pairing.

OriginalPouzar

Agreed – they’ve been getting better and better through exhibition and through the regular season – very solid tonight and Keith makes plus plays with the puck repeatedly.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Tippett playing his hand saying nobody was overtaxed — he’s playing Koskinen against VGK.

OriginalPouzar

He also just said that McDavid and Drai like it when its switched up – some games together and some games apart.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Tells Gene he’d like to see him play tomorrow, doesn’t see any reason why he wouldn’t play tomorrow.

OriginalPouzar

Leon played 16 and a half minutes tonight.

McDavid played 15 and a half minutes tonight.

90s fan

Man, it seemed like more. That’s good.

David

Doing my best Palpatine: “Goooood”.

Redbird62

Only 2 power plays lasting under a minute total helped with that. The fourth line guys each had over 10 minutes and led in all the shot/possession metrics too.

OriginalPouzar

Fourth line was great in the 1st and 3rd periods (and good last game as well) – would be nice if they got rewarded with a goal.

Genjutsu

They will if they continue this trend.

All three guys have a history of scoring in the NHL. The worry was bleeding chances and GA.

The play of the third and forth lines, if it continues throughout the season has contender implications.

Kert

Two goals in 58 seconds of 5v4. If you ever feel like your boss is wasting your time at work, remember the Oilers spend practice time on a second power play unit.

OriginalPouzar

PP2 scored a massive goal on Tuesday…….

Abbeef

It’s a joke…

OriginalPouzar

I understand that.

90s fan

This made me laugh!

Bank Shot

Well played sir

razor

Take a minute and go back to see the highlights of all three of Nuge’s assists tonight. Just fantastic heads up plays, with delay, smarts and preciseness. Beautiful. The wizard is back!

striker

It’s “witch” and you know it

Genjutsu

Thank goodness we didn’t burn this one.

Keeper_13

Real sharp game from Koskinen I thought. Encouraging.

hunter1909

RNH with 3 points now well on his way to get those 60 points I predicted for him earlier. He’s grown into a mans body, and knows how to play NHL hockey after so many seasons, and now with his new contract is motivated like Nurse to be the very best player he can possibly be.

Something has changed for the team mindset(good)

It appears like Oilers have finally shed the stench of the Lowe/MacT generation of darkness.

Bank Shot

Him good for sure.

Ice Sage

Is it too early for Woodguy’s baseball standings? They’ll look pretty sweet!

Gerta Rauss

Gold stars for everyone

I’d start Skinner tomorrow and find a way to get Benson in the lineup

OriginalPouzar

Skinner for sure – in my opinion.

Not so sure Tip will do that though – Mikko was very good tonight but I’m confident that Skinner would be solid tomorrow.

Gerta Rauss

Tip is old school for sure

They need to find out what they have with Skinner and now is the perfect time imo

3rd game in 4 nights and then a couple days off in Vegas and a 4-0 start to the season in your back pocket

And if you can get Benson in there all your primary roster will have at least 1 game under their belt

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been making those points for 36 hours now.

We are in full agreement on Skinner for tomorrow (for many reasons).

90s fan

It wont happen. Tip will start koski for sure. I’m 50/50 on it.

Durag

Mikko was quietly excellent

Munny 2.0

Haven’t seen a game from the Oilers yet that I’d want to patent, but they’re four and oh. Hard to bitch.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Well done Koskinen and crew.

Nice to see the good guys win a game they’re supposed to instead of playing down to the competition like we’ve seen so many times over the years.

Crazy Pedestrian

Oh Yamamoto… you know you’re snakebit when you’re even slipping up from your own feet.

RandyRanderson

he looks like a man without any confidence

hunter1909

That’s his problem lol

fishman

Nice win for Mikko!

hunter1909

That’s one goofy goalie.

hunter1909

That’s one fast moderator!

Old school definition of goofy = interesting.

Keep pressing the (-) and I might get pissed enough to restart Death March™ advertising.

OriginalPouzar

That would be four games played and 8 points banked.

Keeper_13

All in regulation!

Ice Sage

it was a long time ago but first game was a SOW

Keeper_13

Lol whoops

OriginalPouzar

Not the first game – shootout.

judgedrude

Winning game at any time of year is important….just ask the Blue Jays.

Munny 2.0

Lol.Nurse still laying the body hard under a minute to go

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Remember we still haven’t seen peak McDavid yet.

Enjoy every second of this.

DevilsLettuce

Refs are buttery soft.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Vintage Kassian, right there.

OriginalPouzar

Just giving Bouch more development PK reps.

Bank Shot

Was Crouse the one that ran over Shore?

I think all the late game checks were sending a message for that.

Last edited 3 years ago by Bank Shot
OriginalPouzar

I’m actually not even going to criticize Kass for that play given the game situation.

Crazy Pedestrian

I agree, but was still wondering what possessed him to do so

OriginalPouzar

I think it was the scrum Jack was talking about on the previous shift.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

It was a nothingburger call.

But an avoidable mistake, nonetheless.

OriginalPouzar

I give Yamamoto credit for drawing the PP that put the game back away (the 4-1 goal).

striatic

Any team looking to shut down this PP will have its work cut out for it. They make it look so easy but are capable of attacking the net from every direction and their net front capabilities have never been stronger.

OriginalPouzar

I note: it took them about 30 seconds or so to score with Hyman and then about 7 second to score with Jesse.

Not sure why I note that but consider it noted.

Ice Sage

It’s at another level for sure – Drai was directing traffic from the slot, that’s a confident killer group.

Kert

Teams’ll just wait for the playoffs and let the refs shut down their PP..

Dac189

McDavid wants the Rocket Richard confirmed

BornInAGretzkyJersey

It’s like he makes time stop, Connor so deft taking that pass off his skates and still had a barn door to shoot at.

Durag

What has the Oilers PP got in common with David Brent’s band? Foregone conclusion.

OriginalPouzar

Geezus McDavid.

fishman

Putting the boots to them. Love it……

Munny 2.0

Safe to call penalties now, so they will

OriginalPouzar

Nuge is on fire on special teams.

That took about 7 seconds.

My goodness

Oil2Oilers

The Oilers powerplay is ridiculously good. With Bouchard – this season or next – it has potential to get even better.

flea

A lot of early hate on Barrie but he’s excellent on the PP. I agree with Bouch taking over but you don’t need to rush him there either.

Munny 2.0

Pretty much an own goal on the replay

Keeper_13

This is why the refs don’t want to call anything on the Coyotes

Last edited 3 years ago by Keeper_13
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hyman, the Garbage man!

DevilsLettuce

They just broke that goalers soul.

Keeper_13

He’s gonna need a soultender.

OriginalPouzar

Yup, PP still good.

Ice Sage

100% efficacy.

Munny 2.0

Finally a PP

OriginalPouzar

Yes, back to drawing penalties, not taking them – Yamamoto.

KassHat

Tippet needs to start calling out the refs post game.

OriginalPouzar

Do you think that would have positive effect on the calls in future games? I don’t.

khildahl

It worked for Randy Carlyle.

Keeper_13

Still blows my mind that they rewarded him for that.

90s fan

Not if he does it every day. But maybe do it at opportune times.

Munny 2.0

Will that improve the reffing?

Munny 2.0

Another good shift from the 4th line

OriginalPouzar

I think they had a tough 2nd period (by the numbers) but that was indeed a good shift – back to what they were doing in the first period.

Would love to see that fourth line chip in a goal.

Oil2Oilers

3d period Barrie just disappointed 2nd intermission Barrie

flyfish1168

Our best defence is staying offensive.

Kert

I find Barrie’s defensive play pretty offensive.

Munny 2.0

Tyson Barrie is fucking useless

OriginalPouzar

Nah, he was just ensuring that Tip plays Skinner tomorrow night.