Let me ask you a question: What if Slater Koekkoek and Devin Shore were called for jury duty and couldn’t get out of it. OR, got stuck in an elevator in a building that featured the slowest response team on the planet? What if the Oilers were forced to recall William Lagesson and Ryan McLeod and insert them into the lineup immediately? Would that make a massive difference to the Oilers?
My answer is no. The gap between the No. 6, 7, and 8 defenseman, and the No. 4 and No. 5 center is not large, certainly not as large as the gap between Edmonton’s top forwards (97, 29, 93, 13, Zach Hyman, Kailer Yamamoto) and anyone who could be recalled from the farm.
NHL teams need McLeod, Lagesson, Niemelainen types pushing up, but those jobs can also be filled through trade, free agency and even waivers at times. Replacing Nuge? Hyman? Puljujarvi? That’s a very difficult process, requiring some planning over a period of years. Which brings us to Dylan Holloway.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Zach Hyman’s buzzsaw style makes him an instant Oilers fan favourite
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Philip Broberg showing his potential
- Lowetide: Should Jesse Puljujarvi drive his own line for the Oilers in 2021-22?
- New DNB: He’s a one-shot scorer’: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie thriving at DU
- Lowetide: The Oilers finally have an effective third line — so how should they deploy it?
- Jonathan Willis: Success or failure for the Oilers could depend on their Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci tandem
- DNB: Evan Bouchard subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: First impressions of 2021-22 Oilers — is this strong start sustainable?
- Lowetide: Which Oilers AHL players are most likely to be called up in 2021-22?
- DNB: The Battle of Alberta gets heated
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard is going to be the Oilers’ secret weapon in 2021-22 — and he’s already showing why
- DNB: How the Oilers’ new-look second line wears down opponents and makes a difference.
- Lowetide: Amazing opening night facts on players, past and present, from Oilers opening night rosters
- DNB: New Oilers forward Zach Hyman may have a higher pay grade, but his style isn’t changing
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers final roster cuts
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland is increasing the Oilers’ talent pool, and why fans are nervous about it
- Lowetide: When will the Edmonton Oilers fully embrace analytics?
- Jonathan Willis: How the 2021-22 Oilers mirror their coach’s best teams from the past
- Lowetide: What might Oilers do if Kailer Yamamoto’s goal scoring slump continues?
MOVING THE NEEDLE
I’m going to ask you not to scroll down the page, because if you’re willing today we’re going to do an experiment. Here are several prospects with their NHL equivalencies in draft year, draft +1 and draft +2 seasons. They are forwards. Despite the fact NHL equivalencies does help us sort prospects, it’s doesn’t identify top-end future talent as efficiently as Bill James MLB equivalencies. Not enough separation.
Your assignment, if you choose to do it, is to identify, in order, the three numbers you believe were on their way to the most promising careers.
I’ve seen the list, but have a terrible memory. My three choices, in order, based only on these numbers are:
- Number 8. He had a terrific draft year, and then improved his number. Not sure about draft +2 season but he proved himself before that year.
- Number 13. His draft +1 season is the strongest in the group.
- Number 3. He peaked early but delivered consistently and his draft year numbers were good.
Please deposit your list in the comments section before you return to find out the names and we’re on the honour system. You’re a good group, and I’m the only one who is compromised. There are no wrong answers, and if you copy my answers you’ll be missing the big prize. So, yeah.
THE LIST
My choices were (in order) Kailer Yamamoto, Dylan Holloway, Tobias Rieder. Names I would have been better off picking? No. 6 (Jesse Puljujarvi), Yamamoto, possibly No. 14 (Carter Savoie) or Holloway (injury worry impacts value) is the right list.
Here’s the thing: I don’t know you can identify Puljujarvi on this list. His draft pedigree was a better clue.
So, let’s bring it back to No. 13, Dylan Holloway. If he doesn’t recover his offense, then the Oilers pipeline is compromised in a significant way. Edmonton is going to need a forward with enough skill to play in the top nine soon, maybe as soon as 2021-22.
The Oilers don’t have a pile of Holloways, and honestly the players coming up behind him don’t possess the same range of skills. Holloway’s recovery, and a full recovery, is a big story for this season. There’s no cover coming from the minors, Holloway aside, unless Xaiver Bourgault spikes in a big way or Savoie arrives in pro hockey fully formed.
CURRENT NHLE’S
- Carter Savoie (NCHC) 72.0
- Tyler Tullio (OHL) 46.4
- Ryan McLeod (AHL) 39.9
- Xavier Bourgault (QMJHL) 36.2
- Matvey Petrov (OHL) 33.1
- Filip Engaras (H-East) 32.2
- Philip Broberg (AHL) 29.9
- Maxim Berezkin (MHL) 29.5
- Maxim Denezhkin (VHL) 24.9
- Cooper Marody (AHL) 20.0
Savoie is a lock to be signed in the spring, Tullio is already signed, I believe Bourgault and Berezkin may also be hitting the Bakersfield beach (there isn’t one, Pismo Beach is about two hours away). The Condors will still have Holloway (possibly), Raphael Lavoie, Ryan McLeod and possibly Ostap Safin on next year’s team. The club will need to sign some college kids.
A quick final note on Lavoie. He’s four games in now, and hasn’t played a ton. I mentioned last season that Lavoie is working out some habits, and needs to keep his feet moving, needs to be more efficient as a skater (I think his foot speed is fine but am not an expert in this area).
He is playing with talent (Seth Griffith and Adam Cracknell are his linemates at times) but he’s off his pace of last season. In the AHL during 2020-21, Lavoie was averaging 2.31 shots per game. That isn’t an explosive total, but it’s solid for a freshman. So far this year? Five shots in four games. MacT used to say there are players who are involved in the play and those who don’t get to the play. Lavoie has shown he can get to the play but this year he’s staring slow. I thought he was better in weekend one than this most recent one. It’s early days, no need to panic and it isn’t like the Oilers have 10 guys like him pushing up the depth chart.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Monday and the Oilers are 5-0-0. At 10 on the Lowdown (TSN1260), we’ll spend time talking about defensive pairings, Zach Hyman’s impact and Edmonton’s spot in the Pacific compared to the Vegas Golden Knights. We’ll talk NFL (Seahawks play tonight) and Jason Gregor from TSN 1260 will talk Oilers, NFL and CFL (news out of Ottawa this morning). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!!
I have a controversial theory that HH, DSF, etc are Lowetide’s alter egos.
Who has more to gain by HH driving comments on every blog post?
Remember back in the day when LT used to argue with himself in different fonts in his very articles? That devil’s advocate\s logic follows a very similar line as HH….
LT I’ve got you figured…can’t fool me.
To paraphrase Tom Waits: “Don’t you know there ain’t no HH it’s just LT when he’s drunk”
You know who would look good on our second line?
Rickard Rakell.1 year left with a 3.8m cap hit
https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2021/10/3-potential-landing-spots-for-rickard.html
Hyman – McDavid – JP
Nuge – Draisatl – Rakell
Mclovin – Ryan -Yamamoto
Perlini/Benson – Shore – Kassian
Nine-goal Rackell? Not sure he’s an upgrade on Yamamoto, and I think Anaheim would want more than he’s worth.
Does young Tyler deserve that type of joy since he left LT and TSN for Frank and DFO?
He does have 4G in 6 games this year and would be an interesting get.
Price would need to be less than a 1st for a pure rental and the Oilers don’t have a 2nd or a 3rd to trade.
Add Josh Manson and the 1st plus is in play (1st plus Lavoie for example) but, of course, the Oilers would need to dispose of massive cap in order to make that type of transaction.
I guess it might have been a bit premature to write the Calgary Flames obit. Maybe the Canucks too.
In the Pacific, it’s wide open after the Oilers. Even a mediocre team like the Flames should comfortably make the playoffs.
Hard work wins a lot of games during the regular season and the Flames have some skill.
Lindholm is a heck of a player imo. Markstrom is a good goalie. Sutter may be an ass but he knows how to motivate players until they can’t stand him anymore.
You make great points and I agree with you — the Flames are the least worst (even that compliment feels wrong).
Yeah, I can’t stand that team but it is what it is.
I didn’t see any obits, mostly them, Dy’s and Seattle in a scrum for the 3-4 playoff spots in the Pacific. With Seattle and Vegas sputtering, Edmonton’s Western Canadian sidekicks look better. And those pesky Sharks have inserted themselves
All those moves the Kings made this off-season really working out…. to the tune of a 1-4-1 record.
All that offence being opened up, to a tune of 14 goals in 6 games.
Speaking of 14 team goals in 6 games, McDavid has 13 points in 6 games.
Yep.
You can always tell how things will work out after 5-6 games.
Pretty sure Kassian is going score 62 goals this season based on early results.
Again, noone has posited that Kassian will continue to produce at even close to his current pace.
On the other hand, it has been posited that Kopitar would continue to produce at his prior pace and that the Kings moves were working out (that was based off of one win and leading in another game, which they lost, like all their other games).
Woooooaooaoao!
A straw man is a form of argument and an informal fallacy of having the impression of refuting an argument, whereas the real subject of the argument was not addressed or refuted, but instead replaced with a false one.
On the off chance he manages it, would you be happy, or sad?
Also, if the Oilers were in game 7 of the Finals, do you still intend to be playing fuckboy for the opposition?
Connor has 13 in only 5 games. He’ll have more than 14 in 6 games lol
HH gleefully play-by-played their first game for us and BAM!!….losing streak.
He’s like the shit-Midas. Everything he touches turns to shit.
Taking a look at the current standings, leaderboards not sure if it’s up to minute or not..
16 teams have played more games then the Oilers.
11 teams have played the same amount of games.
Oilers all over the leaderboards, couldn’t of asked for a better start.
You have to be more granular.
Home Games
Vancouver 0
Calgary 1
Seattle 1
San Jose 1
Los Angeles 2
Anaheim 2
Edmonton 3
Vegas 4
The home team in the NHL wins 54.5% of the games.
Last change, the short change during two periods, lack of travel and practise time all play a role.
“couldn’t HAVE asked for a better start.”
Yikes. The Oilers winning really does a number on you.
There’s going to be many long nights for HH this winter, staring at the stats page, rocking frantically in his rocking chair, his knees clutched to his chest…
No, one doesn’t have to be that granular unless its required to propogate a narrative.
Does Dom’s model have any granularity in it? I’m going to guess it has a bit more than the above – it seems to project good things for the Oil, before the great start and still.
Of note, Oilers were better on the road last year – low volume of road starts so far could be a benefit.
Sheesh
The Oilers have won 100% of their home and road games. This is killing you, isn’t it?
The home team so far has lost 100% of their games to the visiting Oilers.
Your ticks are outstanding, adds to the power of the curse.
When trolling gets hard due to Oilers domination, break out the grammar jabs!
No offence dude, but this reaks of desperation. We’ve played three home games and two road games and won them all. Does it really matter? And playing the grammar card is weak weak weak.
#7, 13, 9.
2 out of 3 I’ll take
Buffalo just beat Tampa 5-1.
What the hell is going on?
Hahaha. I never got round to posting it but last year the most popular prediction for topping the Canadian division (in Sportsnet and The Athletic) was Calgary. Hockey in a cap era seems to be a very difficult sport to predict. Even so …. Buffalo! Intangibles? Small sample?
The odds on favorite to win the North division (regular season) last year was Toronto.
They were indeed.
The Cup and a Nobel Prize or two I think as well.
Some time away from Eichel good medicine?
Do the Laughs give Keefe and Dubas the boot this season? How many seasons has Dubas been steering the ship?
Is it Dubas or Shanahan? Shanahan gave the job to Dubas and let Lamoreillo walk.
No use using the McDavid contract as Pistol Pete just slid a blank piece of paper across the desk and told Connor to write down what salary he wanted.
Now, the Leon contract is another matter. Pete negotiated what at the time many thought was an overpay at $8.5m for a player who would had just put up 77 pts in 82 games and who would be a #1C on many NHL teams. Dubious just two years later, gave $11m to a winger who had put up 92 pts in 82 games.
The difference is that centers are more valuable than wingers and that Leon got better while Marner regressed. Dubas and Shanny should be terminated with extreme prejudice.
Lets not forget to factor in the term of the deals.
Ovechkin with a pair of goals to take over the league lead.
Now 7 goals in 6 games.
What an absolute beauty. I really hope he beats Gretzky’s record.
I hope he doesn’t
Being an Oilers fan, and seeing in time and knowing the difference between them.
Gretzky was never a giant head hunting asshole with league impunity. Neither was Lemieux. Although a giant as well.
Was never a total flake that could only lead his team to one Cup despite years at the top of the league, with depth.
Call him the best goal scorer ever, sure. That’s it for me.
Grrr! Oilers insecurity much?
I have so many follow-up questions. Is Ovechkin a head hunter? News to me. Please explain to me how Ovechkin is a flake, his playoff numbers are unreal. I think winning one cup in the salary cap era is quite good, no?
I hope he breaks it. Gretzky has plenty of records that will likely never be broken.
Blasphemy I say! A jury will now decide your fate. The punishment being debated is whether you are to banished to the minors like your nephew.
Of note…
Both TJ Oshie and Drake Batherson with hat tricks.
Auston Matthews with 1 goal and 1 point in 4 games.
You mean the guy who might be better than Connor?????
I know, I can’t believe it either. For a guy who is supposed to be a better goal scorer than Ovi you would think he would havs 8 goals already.
@DimFilipovic
·
1h
Alex Ovechkin, Year 17:
•6 games
•7 goals
•5 assists
•26 shots on goal
•50 shot attempts
Ovi is on another level. Would love to see him challenge 50 in 50 this year. What a story that would be at his age.
I love the Blue Jays and the Raptors. Is it irrational that I hate the Leafs and take joy in their stumbles????
Leefs aren’t the only Canadian option.
No, no it is not. And who better than Oiler fans (well maybe Buffalo fans) can really know how it feels.
After working with a bunch of people from Toronto I’ll say it is irrational. They definitely “own” all of those teams. There is a bit of a smug superiority that Canada cheers for these teams.
I can’t look at any of the Toronto based teams the same way.
Loved the article today LT. Gave me a chance to play lowetide for a day. Got a reader like me engaged in a bit of the thought process. Great stuff!
I’m glad you liked it. I wanted two things: One, for people to take part and many did. Two, Puljujarvi was clearly one of the best players in the draft but NHLE didn’t catch him. I don’t have a solution, but the same thing happened to me when Hertl was draft eligible. His NHLE was SO good I didn’t trust it.
We have some way to go.
It wouldn’t show up in NHLe but Puljujarvi’s draft plus 1 year in the AHL was exceptional.
28 points in 39 games as a young 18-year old in a league that doesn’t even allow players from major junior until they are 20. I’m pretty sure he put up those numbers as the youngest player in North American Pro Hockey and I’m guessing there are few comparables for that season.
Oh yeah, he was good in the AHL for sure. Edmonton didn’t do a thing right with him until Holland arrived.
Wait, you mean Ken Hitchcock telling Chiarelli that he needed to be called up after 4 AHL games because he could “fix him” wasn’t the right move?
I still don’t understand why Hitchcock even made the argument, the only logical reason is Chiarelli wanted it and the new coach was eager to pleaase. He had enough to deal with in Edmonton.
JP was something like four points in four games in the AHL. He was splendid there, and Woodcroft could have helped him. Mind boggling.
Yes, 4 points in 4 games (and a fight) and his production underrepresented his play.
I watched 3 of the 4 games and in two of the three, Jesse was, by far, the best player on the ice and he was just “very good” in the other.
Wow. ESPN pumping Kassian’s tires.
https://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/32473617/waiver-watch-here-why-add-zack-kassian-lucas-raymond-more
That is something, I like it.
One thing, they do pump his tires in fantasy leagues that give credit for the rough stuff (hits, PIMs, etc.).
Did they mention his 75% shooting percentage?
Right after mentioning Kopitar’s 35% and Bertuzzi’s 43%.
Kassian has 4 SOG…his performance is a mirage.
Kopitar has 17 SOG while Bertuzzi has 14.
And don’t look now but Hyman is shooting 41.7 % on only 12 shots.
4-5-2..the combined record of the Kings and now Redwings?
Definitely not a mirage.
Yes…Kassian’s shooting percentage is in direct correlation to the record of the Wings and Kings.
Good grief.
Tarasenko just embarrassed the Kings.
Kassian’s shooting percentage did infact lead to it lol.
The Kings only hope is for Kopitar to outscore the entire opposition it seems.
Ummmm, OK, so Kopitar will continue shooting 35% and Bertuzzi will continue shooting 43% because of those “much larger” sample sizes?
What an odd post. We know that you will always stretch (and even make up fake facts) for an anti-Oiler narrative but that one, well, that one doesn’t even make any sense.
Of note: noone, not a single person, has suggested that Kassian will continue to produce at even close the same pace. On the other hand, you have indeed suggested Kopitar’s offence is real and sustainable due to those amazing off-season acquisitions that are helping so much.
Don’t look now
but it’s not unusual for players to have high shooting percentages this early in the season
now go troll Dubois 50%. Hughes 50% Marchand 44% Verhaege 43% Lindholm 40%
You don’t sound bitter at all!
They don’t ask how, they ask how many! Well, except on the left coast.
If you listen closely, you can hear godot furiously typing an email to Victoria Matiash.
Ken Holland was on “NHL Now” today:
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/ken-holland-interview/t-277437406/c-9285949
Best thing about the start? Great tending from Smith and Mikko. Goals up and down the lineup – mentions Jesse and then Kass and then Hyman. Then special teams.
Asked about managing the Jesse situation: He knew he was a top prospect in his draft class but hadn’t seen much of him. When he came, Jesse decided to go home and thinks it was good with him. He came back and he’s been put with McDavid since game 4 or 5 and, now, he’s got his confidence.
The odd player at 18/19 can come in and make an impact. Most need time and are older. Often unrealistic expectations on young players.
Asked about Keith and what he was looking for. In the exit interviews, it was clear the players felt they needed some more veteran leadership behind the core group. He knows that analytics weren’t attractive but we knew that he would be motivated coming to a new city and he would bring leadership. He’s forming a chemistry with Codi Cedi and a forming a good 2nd pair for us.
With McDavid, is there extra pressure to get these guys help, etc.? The simple answer is yes. Have to live in a cave to not know we have the best player in the world and that comes with expectations to succeed. My first year, the goal was to make us competitive and improve special teams and Tip has done a great job and the players have bought in to Tip’s season. With Leon and Connor, expectations are high and we have grown over the last 18 months and made strides. Lots of growth to do but thrilled with the 10 points so far.
Ceiling for McDavid, can he get better? Just doing what he’s doing puts him in rarified waters. He’s the best player I’ve seen. The combination of speed and skill but also his determination year round to get better and improve. He’s a driven athlete and he’s really competitive. I feel fortunate getting to work with Connor.
How are player’s different today? They are way more knowledgable. All the games are on TV and all in information is out there. They’ve been in U-16 camps, U-17 camps, World Juniors, etc….. Now, there is more transparency, they want an explanation on why they are being asked to do things a certain way. They are more knowledgable and they understand why things are being done a certain way, whether its a trade or a contract negotiation or a lineup deployment – they now know why things are the way they are.
Should anything change in the league? The game is a safer work place now. The game is 4 lines and everyone can skate. Game is in a great place – salary cap has let everyone be competitive.
Thanks for this! No gm will “win” every signing, draft pick and transaction, but I dothink Ken’s work with the oilers overall ought to be worth a solid B, maybe even B plus. I also think he is a smart hockey person who is not married to yesteryear.
Ethan Bear with a smart shot on net, deflected in by Aho.
I watched a bit of the game, recognized Bear the second he stepped on the ice. Two quick strides to recover a puck and then a beautiful outlet pass. I am happy to seem him thrive, he is a fine young man.
Should’ve kept him and let Barrie walk.
Oh well, nobody’s perfect.
Then we wouldn’t have Foegele. Our team needed better forward depth and WF has been an outstanding addition. Bear made that happen.
Foegele has been good, no question. Maybe he will make me change my mind by the end of the year?
But I still like Bear and 5 million in cap space.
Bear also instrumental on Carolina’s 3rd goal but not credited with an assist.
Bear is a very nice hockey player – solid hockey trade working out for both teams.
If we are talking about individual Bear plays leading to goals, perhaps we should mentioned that, on the Matthews goal, Bear’s ring-around the boards on the puck-retreival and outlet was intercepted and then he lost Matthews and was beat to the net by Matthews who scored – Bear was culpable twice on that goal against.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have Bear on the Oilers but he does make mistakes along with many good plays – if we are going to point out one…..
I thought Carolina’s goalie played that terribly. Bear shoots it up the wall, TML winger beats the Carolina winger, Bear loses puck and position to Matthews. All of that can happen and the puck doesn’t go in the net if the goaltender has good position. He did not. Good game for Bear, but you bet he’d like to get position on Matthews there.
That’s a problem when the D-man is giving up 4″ in height and over 20 lbs to the forward.
Yes, agreed. Bear’s size is not a strength.
I expect those moments from young d. I think if you are putting a defenseman under 25 in a feature role, you need to expect some growing pains. I think Bear is a good bet to have a career trajectory comparable to Jeff Petry.
That said, I like Bear a lot and really want him to succeed, so I could just be seeing what I want to see.
Reading through LT’s piece at The Athletic on Hyman made me remember something I forgot to mention – listening to LeBrun on the morning show with Dusty today, he mentioned that Hyman was very close to re-signing with the Leafs at the “11th hour” on a 8-year deal and it fell apart.
What i wasn’t clear as when the “11th hour was” – i mean was this late on June 30 (well, July 12th I think this off-season) or are we talking about weeks before it had been all but official that he was signing with the Oilers (even the teams were essentially saying it).
They wouldn’t give him a NMC
Yes, I’ve read that trade protection was an issue for Dubas in the Hyman negotiations.
Seems a bit odd considering Tavares, Matthews and Marner got full NMCs (the latter two for their UFA years) and Nylander and even the likes of Kerfoot got modified NTCs.
3, 7 and 9 for me
Waivers today:
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205470
Talented Russian scorer gets wasted by Eakins?
Where have I seen this movie before…
And developed by Tampa too. Might be worth a look.
Woody on Broberg:
He’s been good. His game is coming. We’re not trying to force anything but he is getting his minuts. At the offensive blue, he’s made some good plays, specifically on the PP. His skating and his ability to break the puck out has been very good. We’ve been working with him on his defensive awareness and his urgency and getting back to pucks and using his time with it. We’ve seen positive signs and he’s where he should be right now. Things happen quicker on North American ice, things happen faster, the game is played faster on the North American ice. Players are coming hard on forechecks, sprinting to establish body position net-front. If Broberg can “get those things” down at this level, when he gets to the NHL level, where there is more structure (players are where they should be, etc.), he will be set up for success at the highest level.
Woody on McLeod (Bob starting off by comparing him to Helm). Woody agreed similar players. Both are elite skaters, can get in on the forecheck. McLeod has more offensive upside. Both are good PK guys. Both have speed through the middle of the rink. McLeod is a bigger body. Our approach with Ryan is to continue to work on the details in his game so that when he gets the call back he’s up for good. For us, its stopping on pucks in the d-zone, its going to hard areas offensively. We are holding him to account at this level.
Really appreciate these detailed updates. Thank you.
Thanks for the reports on Broberg & Samorukov. Good stuff.
Jay W. “Samorukov is poised to come in to the lineup soon”.
Bob pressed – he’s not ruled out for Wed but it sounded like may this coming weekend.
Great news.
Yanni Kaldis doesn’t think so but I agree, that’s great news.
Vinny Deharnais likely doesn’t agree either.
There will be 7 NHL contracts on the roster “ahead” of him.
I’ll be very curious how they deploy – I’m pretty sure they like Deharnais on the ice at that level.
How in hell’s name did I end up with Troy Hesketh?
Sure as hell wasn’t by using NHLE.
Saw him good, I guess!
Well this is the best post of the day.
I would have went 7, 8 and 9 rational being improvement year over year.
while a firm believer in numbers will tell you who won’t make it I’m not so sure it identifies the winners to the same degree!
There is no evidence that the club could predict Klefbom would be out due to his shoulder.
At the time of the Broberg pick the defence was shaping up nicely. Klefbom, Larson, Nurse, with Bear, Jones, Lagesson pushing and a bright shiny pick in Bouchard on the horizon.
The Oilers scouting team was not focused on defensemen. Their was unrest. Holland came into Edmonton pre-disposed to pick Broberg likely because he simply felt he was the best pick available.
As it turns out, the Oil will be in dire need for Broberg to arrive as a top 4 d man.
But at the time of the pick, with the defense loaded and with no Yamamoto, no Jessie, or no Hyman in sight; picking a forward like Zegras was simply the right choice.
Luckily as of today we hope to have one top end forward Holloway and hope to have a top end defensive talent like Broberg arrive in the near future.
I would wager you that Holland’s people in Sweden had a great bearing on the selection. Holland exudes people skills and has a report with many in the country would be my guess. The man has class and has built relationships because of same. It is why even when I may question a move I believe it is time to wait and see! Holland has in my opinion earned street cred,
Holland has been almost universally dissed by Oilers fans, while quietly going about putting together the team everyone wants to start with.
Maybe he knows something about hockey that 99.9% of fans do not.
Yes and no
Select players that have the least resistance to the NHL – skill speed size. Really a no brainer
Select players that are stable as young people
It’s not like the NHL is a great place for personal growth in your teens or early 20’s , as we have seen a million times over
Act with respect and stability
.
Kind of old school ‘what works with humans’ to me
Really good article. Solid point about replacing marquee players requiring years of planning, and the dearth of blue chip forward prospects in the pipeline. I’ve been pretty lukewarm on Holloway so far – I just can’t reconcile the glowing verbal around the player with the position he was selected at the draft. General consensus among oilers punditry from very early on seemed to be “write his name on the roster in pen starting next season”. (Could be there were lots of “cool your jets on this player” articles that I just don’t remember because they don’t support the point I’m trying to make, the human brain is like that 😛 )
Anyways, I’ve always thought it unlikely that the rest of the league slept on a guy as good as the oilogosphere claims Holloway is, but I don’t watch prospects, I just compare stats (which are impressive) with draft position with the narrative around the player. Would love this player to be the guy I’ve read he is. At this point I’m expecting a poor man’s Ryan Smyth, which would make me very very happy.
I’m sure hoping the surgery went well the 2nd time and he’s back up and playing competitive hockey by Christmas.
Oilers and Holloway are both in Alberta, easier scouting may have something to do with his pick. There’s an odd ringer in the AJHL.
I thought Holloway was underwhelming at the WJC. It’s top competition so he did well to just be on the team, but I just thought his skill was lacking throughout. Couldn’t get anything done. He went on to explode the next year so I hope it was just age related and he is the prospect I keep hearing about.
The WJC and Holloway’s huge season was the same year.
I understand the thought that he was under-whelming at the World Juniors but that was somewhat expected given he was going to be in a bottom six role – there to play responsible 2-way hockey, create energy, take faceoffs, etc.
With the likes of Krebs, Cozens, Perfeti, Quinn, etc. he wasn’t there on a scoring line.
I also think the double quarantine, back to back, could have been a factor. The guys coming from college in the US had to quarantine for two weeks and then, right after they got out, the team had to go in to quarantine for another week if I recall correctly.
I believe the Coach was trying to use him as a all purpose player but had his minutes scaled back because he was playing with a injury. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, just going off on memory.
I’m thinking 8, 14, and 3. 8 and 13 had those huge D+1 numbers, while 3 had a bit of a spike in D+1 and then stayed decently consistent throughout.
I literally just copied LT and then wrote 13 and 14. Whoops… nothing to see here!
Bouch on with Gregor as 5:20 today……
Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) Tweeted:
Oilers coach Dave Tippett said Mike Smith skated before practice. He’ll be re-evaluated tomorrow. Tippett said it’s doubtful Smith will be ready for Wednesday’s game vs. PHI but added it’s possible he plays Saturday at VAN.
https://twitter.com/DNBsports/status/1452705084605808640?s=20
Smith didn’t practice but skated before and will be re-evaluated after. Doubtful for Wed but potential to be ready for the weekend.
Also, Rishaug posting videos of McDavid and Jesse working on agility and puck-handling after practice. This is like the 3rd time I’ve seen this and I LOVE it.
In short, McDavid has taken up the role of hockey tutor for his new star linemate.
The question then follows, how much of an influence does hanging around and practicing with the best hockey player since Mario have on JP’s seemingly endless(to me at least) potential?
If this keeps up, JP is turning into a happy version of Gordie Howe.
#13 ditto
#7 year over year improvement
#11 draft year NHLE 27 is strong, and didn’t fizzle so much like #10
JJ Khaira has always been a favorite of mine so i have been watching a bit of the CBH this year. Some things never change for JJ – 5v5 scoring differential is an issue (and I am not saying it is all on him). Note: small sample size warning!
2021-22 5v5
JJ Khaira: 5 gp / 53.3 TOI / 0 pts / -3
D Ryan: 5 gp / 57.5 TOI / 1 pts / 0
Now, the wingers Ryan has here are an improvement from what JJ had (and what he has in Chicago). However, having a 3rd line that does not get caved was my wish, and now the Oilers have one that is doing better than just sawing it off. Me thinks the Kassinator has finally found a home and accepted that station in life. Unless there are injuries I hope that Tippet keeps this 3rd line together.
Ryan’s craftiness combined with Foegele’s tenacious forechecking opens up the ice for Kassian to free wheel more.
I had 9, 3, & 7. With the names attached it looks more like an AHL all star team than an NHL one.
8, 9, 13
A little unfair because I knew Holloway was 13 instantly. Looked for JP, but I didn’t know his equivalencies well enough.
Well, there we go, at practice today:
1) Top 6 same as on the road with Hyman/McDavid/Jesse and Nuge/Leon/Yamamoto.
There was talk/speculation about going a home and away deployment but I think this is really the better way forward (generally) and am happy.
2) Top pairing of Nurse/Bouchard
I’m all for this but, frankly, am a bit surprised that Tip/Playfair aren’t going back to Barrie as Nurse’s partner to start. I think they want to get him going but this is sure a big carrot for Bouchard who is munching away.
I love that top pairing (and it’s going to be a top 5-10 pairing in a year or two) but I am concerned about a Russell/Barrie or Koekkoek/Barrie pairing. I think Barrie is best deployed in a 2nd pairing with a more stable partner and some decnet “top 6 linemate” minutes. Of course, Keith/Ceci are killing their minutes given their defensive zone starts so that pairing can’t change.
Agree.
And – to me- Russell has looked horrific.
So, hating the Russell / Barrie combo. Big time.
He’s 34, turning 35 at the end of the season, and he’s had alot of hard miles on him through his NHL career (and not a big dude for the NHL).
I’m not sure if there is some age-related regression, maybe he’s lost a bit of a step or some quickness.
In any event, his load clearly needs to be managed this year and if Samorukov, who will be playing hockey games shortly, can continue his progression and pass Russell/Koekooek for 3LD, that would be fantastic.
I think Sammy, if his game translates to the NHL level, could be a very good partner for Barrie when Bouch is up the lineup.
Reality is even getting Barrie (started) as you put it Bouchard is the better defensive player. The key now is to find where you can find a place that allows Barrie to use his offensive skill without being a negative for the team like Quinn Hughes is in Vancouver.
I agree with that and I don’t think its with Koekkoek or Russell.
Dimitri Samorukov is a big, mean, aggresive defender that can also skate and move the puck – if he does pick up where he left off, and his skills translate to the NHL fairly quickly, I think his skill-set is perfect for Barrie.
Completely off topic, and largely down to me thinking about the future of the left flank of the defence. I wonder how Klefbom is getting on with his rehab? I realise it’s a long shot but I’d love to see him suit up again next year, he was a Rolls Royce of a d-man.
Yeah I’m a little curious about his return as well. It doesn’t sound good, but here’s hoping he makes it back. Be nice to have him and Nurse et al, all in good shape.
Klefbom was very much a bright spot for me through the last few years, I’d love to see him back on the ice again. At the same time his long term health has to come first.
I guess we wait for the summer and see what news comes along then.
Calling Swedish Poster – you’re up!
Love Klefbom and wish him the best. Between him publicly discussing retirement, the 2 year Keith deal, and 2022-23 being the last year of his contract I cant imagine he makes his way back.
If he did come back next year and the Oilers made space for him we’re still talking about a guy with a stockpile of injuries trying to shake off 2 years of rust. Sail on Oscar, one hell of a player.
Yeah, that’s what I’m fearing. Like I say, I hope for the best for him personally first and foremost. I’m just bummed it’s pretty unlikely that we’ll get to see him out on the ice for us again.
Also, Larsson not re-signing was a further indication that Klefbom is done. Pretty sure he would have stayed if Klefbom was returning to the team.
I don’t know about that. I’m not sure even Klefbom knows at this point and, in early July, I think that was likely even more the case.
The last time we heard, in the off-season, it was too soon after the surgery to know if continuing his NHL career was feasible – he first needed to recover from the surgery itself and then the decision re: training for professional hockey could be made with the required info.
What they did know at the time Larsson made his decision is that Klef wouldn’t be playing for the Oilers this season.
I like your optimism but Klefbom has known since after the pandemic playoffs that his shoulder was fucked and the chances of him playing again were slim (remember him talking about his chronic pain and range-of-motion issues?). Let’s assume that Klef’s surgery was successful and his quality of life improves; I doubt he jeopardizes that by playing again. Larsson said he talks to Klefbom every day, so I think they both knew the writing was on the wall for his time in Edmonton/NHL. It made Larsson’s decision to leave less difficult.
Oh, I’m not necessarily optimistic that Klef will return, was just responding to the point that Larsson knew in June/July that Klef was never playing again. I don’t even think Klef knew at that time.
Klef has never wavered from stating his goal is to play in the NHL again – he’s not sure if he can but its still his goal.
Maybe a Cadillac but never a a Rolls!?
14, 8 , 11
ahh, I read the lack of a draft+2 as they made it to the NHL, not they are still too young to have a draft+2.
to continue, I would have had:
14 Savoie
8 Yamamoto
11 Lavoie
7 Benson
6 Puljujarvi
My logic was that Draft+1s in junior can have very high numbers as they are able to dominate or very low if they’re able to jump up to a better league. Holloway snuck by me big time. His draft year in NCAA is a tough way to get an NHLe. Draft+3 can be all over the place as players are often adjusting to their 1st year in pro.
If I had clued in about the missing draft+2, my list would have been:
8 Yamamoto
11 Lavoie
7 Benson
14 Savoie
6 Puljujarvi
3, 4, and 13.
8, 11, 13 & 9. They are the numbers that stand out for me.
Where’s my prize?
Went with 7, 9 and 13 (guessing it was Holloway). As Meatloaf says ‘two out of 3 ain’t bad’. Trying to use any stat in isolation will always be problematic. At least I avoided Moroz and Ewanyk..
Yam, Lavoie, holloway
Trying to pick who might have moved up a league in draft +2 was my devil in details trying to pick.
7, 8, 13
Benson, Yamamoto, Holloway.
I chose 8,9 and 13. 7 was my 4th choice.
I’m thinking 4,5,and 9.
I ignored those without an NHLE as I figured they would still be in the minors. Holloway and Savoie obviously stand out there.
Great exercise. 3,9 and 13.
Hope I’m right on 13. Whiffed big on 9.
Just for my own curiosity, I wanted to see the average progress from draft year to D+1.
~35% increase in NHLe. If you’re not doing that, you’re falling behind.
D+2 is halfway between D+1 and draft year. Interesting to see regression across the board. I assume that’s just diminished opportunity as players make the jump from junior to the AHL. No more 20+ minutes a night and PP1 for a lot of these players. And I think the talent gap between the top and bottom of an AHL roster is a lot smaller than the gap between the top and bottom of a CHL roster. The soft minutes aren’t that soft anymore.
(I assume the ‘overall difficulty’ of the jump between leagues is accounted for in the NHLes)
Neat.
Savoie has lots of hockey left (and cooled off after a hot start last season).
But the last NCAA player to score 2 points/game (Savoie is 6 6-6-12 now) was Johnny Gaudreau in 13-14. It was Gaudreau’s draft + 3 season and he also had exactly 2.0 points/game.
Before that you have to go all the way back to Jason Krog in 98-99 (85 pts in 41 GP). He was 23 in what would have been his draft +5 season.
Young Savoie is looking like he *could* be a special player.
From accounts (Nugent-Bowman piece last week), he’s turned some of that baby fat in his 192 pound frame in to muscle (well, it doesn’t actually work that way, fat doesn’t turn in to muscle but he’s in better shape).
Coach Carle also has him playing some defensive minutes and even a bit of PK.
His shot really is something else – he’s one of those somewhat rare players that is able to make subtle little plays with his blade and the puck that cause issues for goalies – its really something.
Love this.
Thank you
My guesses then I’ll go back to look at answers…
4, 5 and 9 with a shout out to 13 who we’re missing draft 2 for (based on numbers this looks like Holloway).
4 showed spike in d+2, looks like future role player, though could be a Moroz.
5 looks like an adjustment to pro then back to earlier levels, a good sign.
9 looks like he has the offense and consistent after turning pro, good sign.
Now I’ll go see how wrong I am. My mistake is probably overvaluing 4’s improvement when the offense is still pretty low. Knowing the sample sizes would be a big difference in predicting i think.
Ha! Could be a Moroz indeed.
I had the exact same thought process and guesses as you! Go Moroz! lol
Moroz, slepyshev and Maksimov….woof
Hilarious that I literally used Moroz as my example.
Age and sample size I would add. Draft pedigree could also be a distraction but it means we can identify who will get the benefit of the doubt.
Well, here we are: Pismo Beach and all the clams we can eat
We spent a few hours in Pismo Beach one year driving back up from Palm Beach. My wife still raves about the clam chowder. 😉
They better bring their thick wetsuits or their dune buggies
The forward prospect cupboard is pretty bare.
This is exactly why the Broberg pick was puzzling; it was nice to grab Lavoie at an excellent spot in the 2nd round, but thinking the Oilers could have had Zegras/Caufield/Kaliyev and Lavoie, would have really helped I think.
Hmm. I get that, but I’m also all for having Broberg heading along to take 3LD next season (hopefully) and then 2LD once Keith retires.
Assuming of course that Keith doesnt re-sign at a lower cap hit 🙂
Keith can resign at a much lower cap hit and play the Russell role in two seasons and be fine I think.
Broberg was drafted to replace Klefbom. The org had intel into his injury it would seem and reached for a LD to hedge bets.
Guess we can’t know for sure, but I think it highly likely they believed Broberg was the best prospect available at that spot.
I was wondering about Klefbom after I posted the Keith comment. I posed it as a question higher up the thread so it’s on it’s own.
Broberg was a Klefbom replacement. Holland knew that Klefbom was not going to be re-signed because of his shoulder issues. As it is, Klefbom broke down sooner than expected, and Keith is the stopgap to get to Broberg (or Samorukov).
I
m wondering if we aren't related somehow....seems every post of yours I completely agree with…genius loves companyTyson Barrie massive D struggles: (trade him at the deadline?)
My post yesterday was meant to suggest that if Tyson Barrie cannot recover some modicum of D awareness/ play – an option may exist for Holland to get out of the contract.
It was not necessarily to advocate for trading him asap. Tyson had a very slow start last year and recovered quite nicely. So we have runway yet to make a decision.
However, If people are conceding that Bouchard and Ceci are the top 2 RHD- I am not certain Barrie is a fit here though as 3RD. (honestly, I think both Colorado and TO came to this same conclusion)
I have a very tough time imagining a Tyson Barrie player grinding and pounding through the playoffs – as a third pairing Dman.
Perfectly willing to concede a proven replacement is not on hand.
4.5 million is steep price for a third pairing D and we are on the hook for – 2 more full years- after this one.
Again, just thinking ahead to January maybe. Maybe.
My apologies for not replying yesterday.
I don’t think characterizing Barrie as a third pairing dman tells the whole story. Rishaug called him an offensive specialist. There’s value in that. If he had a strong defensive game, he would be getting $9 mill, not $4.5 mill.
Barrie is only an offensive specialist if he cheats and takes excessive risk for offense.
A true offensive player doesn’t cheat for offense.
Actually I think that is pretty much the definition of an offensive player. 😉
Depends on the meaning/connotation of “offensive” you are using.
Somebody who cheats for offense. 😉
Fair.
But in the same breath – you have to admit – Defensive liability specialist, no?
How confident are you with him on the ice with a lead?
Regarding Barrie in the playoffs, I posted this late last night in yesterday’s thread.
This is a good point.
Yes, my worry is Barrie with the bottom 6.
Yeah I can understand that. He hasn’t always been as tied to his top teammates as he was to McDavid last year though.
As one example, I noticed in his last 2 playoff years with Colorado. They played 18 games and Barrie was 15-11 at 5v5. In those same 18 games MacKinnon was 13-18 and Landeskog 13-17.
Barrie was clearly 1) playing lots away from MacKinnon/Landeskog and 2) having success playing with depth players.
Actually, I just looked and, in those two playoff years, Barrie played with Zadarov and, in the first year he played about half his time with MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog and, in the second year, he played ever more of his time with them.
Here is the thing, in both years, they have close to a 60% goal share but that “top line” got absolutely killed without Barrie, both years, to the tune of 25%-40% depending on the player/year.
Crazy!
Cool, I hadn’t looked at the actual WOWYs.
Paying 4.5 million for a 3rd pairing defender is just keeping tradition alive.
If Holland wants to trade Barrie, its a summer trade.
GMs with playoff teams don’t subtract Dmen at the deadline, they add them.
Unless it’s supplemented with other assets for another big time player. That elusive in-season “hockey trade” Sather would make.
I agree, Barrie is an honest to goodness NHL defenseman, and if we find Bouchard can play with nurse, the play isn’t to trade Barrie right away, but to add a partner to help Barrie and roll 3 quality pairings.
Yes, I agree with this and have been posting the same over the last few days since the “trade Barrie” verbal has increased.
Even taking away the fact that 4th on the right shot depth chart is Filip Berglund, Holland has a history of adding veteran d-men to gear up for a playoff run, not disposing of them in the name of future cap management.
Not to mention trading a player that just signed as a UFA without trade protection during the first year of that contract is risky business – that will not help acquiring any material UFAs in the future without full trade protection.
Lets also not forget, Barrie started off slow in Toronto and then recovered and he started off slow last year and recovered.
There is definitely an issue of how to deploy Barrie if not with Nurse. In my opinion, he needs a more stable partner than Keokkoek or an aging Russell – Samorukov may help this issue in the next few months.
Bottom line you would still have a 4.5 million a year third pairing D that you have to shelter from PK. This is of course if your intentions aren’t to replace our current second pairing with Barrie plus plus!
I’m talking about how best to deploy the players going forward this season and, in that regard his cap hit doesn’t matter to me. Kris Russell played 3rd pairing for $4M for a few years. There is some though of playing Nuge at 3C for $5.5M. I don’t care about cap hits as it relates to the actual in-season roster – Tip should deploy in a manner that gives the teach the best chance to win that night. If that’s Sammy/Barrie as the 3rd pairing, go for it.
Assuming the coach can find a role for Barrie you are correct re cap for this season. The problem I see is that role is being filled by Bouchard which makes Barrie redundant. Expecting Samorukov to be able to pair with him as a raw rookie is a reach at best. It will be interesting to see how the team works it out!
Very Valid.
Peak desperation can usually be found at the deadline, though.
Also, a bit worried a full season of Barrie may diminish his value too much.
But, this is maybe the most likely path.
Number 9, number 13, number 5
I think we all know who 13 is, but I’m guessing that those who maintained high numbers, even with a dip, in draft+2 are those who moved to higher leagues and maintained high NHLes
Maksimov,Rieder and Holloway!
About the most middle of the road I could get and totally whiffed on the stars of the group!
Hey folks,
As you can guess if you follow me on Twitter, my rage over this team subsided after a couple days and now I have optimism and hope again. I still worry about the goalies on t his team, but everything else looks good.
Having said that, I went with 3, 6, and 9. Powers of three and I went one for 3. .333
I’m hoping the pipeline from Bakersfield continues and the patience shown will pay off more. I have admitted numerous times, just how wrong I was about the Bison King. Maybe the Oilers need someone in their development department working primarily on helping players adjust to big league life or North American life. I know they’ve come a long ways since the days Krutov couldn’t pass by a McDonald’s without stopping, but adjusting to life as a 19 year old is tough especially in a foreign country where you don’t speak the language.
IN my efforts to cut costs at home I’ve pretty much cut my TSN and Sportsnet coverage, and instead purchased NHL Live. Yeah, I’m missing MLB playoffs, but also 18 minutes of Leafs coverage in a 30 minute segment. Decided to concentrate on the Oilers and it was a good choice.
Been fun to watch this year.
Go Oilers