You know, Stuart Skinner could solve many problems for the Edmonton Oilers if it turns out he’s an actual NHL goalie. He stopped 35 of 38 (.921) in a loss against the Detroit Red Wings last night, looked strong save for one rookie mistake that cost him in a big way.
It would be easy to look past the performance, but Skinner was excellent, and against some great looks. I’m not saying he’ll be a star, his closest comparable is Laurent Brossoit to my eye, but that’s a useful player. If it comes to pass that Mike Smith is in his final season, Skinner would be a solid backup goalie to a strong No. 1 option next year. Skinner’s cap number is a dream for Edmonton in 2022-23.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Oilers’ Stuart Skinner on the right track after second NHL start
- DNB: What I believe and what I know about the Oilers after 10 games
- Lowetide: How close to balanced are the 2021-22 Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s otherworldly goal
- DNB: Kevin Lowe Q&A
- Lowetide: Is this Connor McDavid’s peak season, and how good could it be?
- Lowetide: Who is the Oilers’ top prospect now that Evan Bouchard has graduated?
- DNB: Oilers’ Tyson Barrie says what needs to be said as NHL faces reckoning
- Lowetide: Did Oilers general manager Ken Holland win the offseason?
- DNB: The Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci pair have helped to overcome a notable loss
- Jonathan Willis: Seven Oilers surprises so far in 2021-22
- Lowetide: What Evan Bouchard’s move up the depth chart means for the Oilers’ defensive pairings
- Lowetide: How hot streaks, shuffles and slumps will determine the fate of the Oilers’ second line in 2021-22
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Philip Broberg showing his potential
- Lowetide: Should Jesse Puljujarvi drive his own line for the Oilers in 2021-22?
- New DNB: He’s a one-shot scorer’: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie thriving at DU
- Lowetide: Which Oilers AHL players are most likely to be called up in 2021-22?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: SEA, NAS, NYR (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, BOS, BUF, STL, WPG (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: WPG, CHI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DAL, ARI, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- Actual November results: 3-1-0, six points in four games
- Oilers n 2021-22: 9-2-0, 18 points in 11 games
Detroit looked like the easy mark over the next week plus and Edmonton lost that one. The back to back in Boston and Buffalo looms large now, with the Oilers still in first place due to Adin Hill stoning the Calgary Flames last night.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse-Evan Bouchard played 18:27, going 15-10 shots, 1-1 goals. Nurse had a five on five assist, four shots, a HDSC and took a penalty that looked like a love tap from here. Bouchard got on the wrong side of alphabet man for his second Detroit goal, MacT did a nice job describing the misstep between periods. Bouchard also had an assist, three shots and two HDSC’s. This pairing is 5-4 goals for the year, 60 percent shots and 61 percent expected goals. No surprise coach Tippett ran with this duo.
Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci were the only pairing spared a goal against, playing 16:34, going 5-9 shots and 1-3 HDSC. A low event night defensively, not much on offense either for the pairing. Keith is through his catching up period and Ceci seems to have found a consistent range. A defensive pairing who play 16:34 with very little worry has value. Pairing is 43.5 shots, and 50 percent goals and expected goals. It’s like Kris Russell is their hero.
Slater Koekkoek-Tyson Barrie played 8:13, going 4-10 shots and 1-2 goals. This duo brings too much chaos and are not a good match. Barrie would benefit from more of a shutdown type, and Koekkoek would too although he isn’t at Barrie’s level with the puck on his stick. This duo is 3-4 goals and I don’t think they’ll be spending tons of minutes together.
LINES
- Draisaitl-97-Puljujarvi: 9:22, 5-2 shots, 0-1 goals.
- Hyman-97-Puljujarvi: 7:43, 7-4 shots, 1-0 goals.
Both No. 1 lines sparkle and shine, Puljujarvi and McDavid were the goal scorers last night. The combined Corsi five on five for this line was 21-10, and shots 12-6. Tippett has four men he can use on the line not named Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, that’s real depth and it’s been some time. Maybe since 2015-16, when McDavid could run with any of Patrick Maroon, Leon Draisaitl and Jordan Eberle.
- Hyman-Nuge-Kassian: 3:03, 0-3 shots, 0-3 HDSC, no goals.
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 6:06, 1-3 shots, 0-1 goals, 2-1 HDSC.
Kassian’s injury ended the experiment but the line was getting caved so badly there’s just no way we were going to see it for long. I thought Yamamoto had one of his best games, and that’s about four in a row where he’s touching the puck more. As a matter of fact, in the last four games, Yamamoto is 2-0-2, with six shots and eight individual high-danger chances in those games via Natural Stat Trick.
- Foegele-Ryan-Yamamoto: 2:34, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals
- Foegele-Ryan-Sceviour: 3:51, 2-4 shots, no goals or high danger
It’s too bad, the Foegele-Ryan-Yamamoto trio will get slammed today for the first goal against, but the key to the play was Slater Koekkoek passing the puck to Detroit, effectively giving up a clean two-on-one. Ryan might have covered the point had he known Koekkoek had turned double agent on the play, but he was unable to anticipate the moment.
Sceviour checked into the No. 3 right-wing spot and things were more settled, Ryan is now 3-8 goals five on five and that’s looking a lot like Riley Sheahan’s first year here. How to stop the bleeding? I have an article coming at The Athletic on that very subject.
- Perlini-McLeod-Sceviour: 2:37, 2-1 shots.
- Perlini-McLeod-Foegele: 2:10, 1-1 shots.
- Perlini-McLeod-Hyman: 0:49, 0-1 shots.
If McLeod could saw off the competition (he was 4-4 shots but 0-2 HDSC) it would make a massive difference. The bar is not high, Devin Shore’s five on five work (36 percent shots, 33 percent goals) is as expected and Ryan is struggling badly on the third line. It’s there, McLeod is needed. This is his time to shine, but the window may be closing, for this year at least.
KASSIAN
If Kassian is injured for any length of time, that brings Colton Sceviour to the third line with Benson likely drawing in to the lineup (Perlini to right wing).
If there’s another recall needed (Condors play tonight, so recall would be tomorrow is my guess), the options are Seth Griffith (5-7-12 in nine games with four power-play goals) and Cooper Marody (9, 3-4-7) among signed players.
Among AHL contracts I’d say Tim Schaller (9, 3-1-4) would be the most likely, he is not far removed from NHL play. I also like James Hamblin (9, 2-1-3) and although he’s not going to have an NHL career Dino Kambeitz is absolutely ruthless along the wall. We could also see a trade, for a center.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on the Lowdown. At 10:20, it’s Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal, and at 10:40. We’ll also welcome Dakota Buttar, who is going for back-to-back championships at the 2021 PBR Canada National Finals this weekend in Edmonton. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will guide us through a busy week of NBA, NHL and NFL games and let us know who and what your should be looking at in the days to come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Marody with a clear breakaway in OT but Wolf stops him, Heat score on a nice 3 on 1 play coming back the other way.
5-4 Heat,
The Malone/Cracknell/Grifith line with Broberg just dominating in the offensive zone.
Seth Griffith is a sensational offensive player in the AHL.
I swear Broberg is playing the entire game.
He’s Nurse like out there tonight – tons of ice, skating miles, PK, PP points, laying bodies out, transitioning the puck via skate and pass.
Broberg draws a PP taking a cross-check in front of the Heat net and then gets yet another PP apple.
Malone wins the draw, Griffith to Broberg, back to Griffith who sends it down low to Malone who makes a wonderful play to bring it out in front and bury it.
4-4.
Malone with 4 points.
Bob Murray out in Anaheim for professional misconduct.
https://www.nhl.com/news/ducks-gm-bob-murray-resigns-after-investigation/c-327800564
This stuff is really snowballing. I wonder how many more this will claim….?
Beautiful reverse by Samorukov at the defensive goal line, gets the puck up the boards to Malone who feeds Marody on transition – great vision by Marody to hold up and hit Kesslering the trailer who walks it and buries it.
4-3 Hear
Your Petrov question answered below.
Condors get one back.
A hard forecheck and Marody causes a turnover behind the Heat net, puck slips to Malone who passes in front to James Hamblin who buries it from in front.
Heat get that one right back.
Lagesson loses a battle and the puck works back the point, a weak shot from the point is deflected in front back Rodrigue.
4-2 Heat.
Shots 26-12 Condors.
Rodrigue will be in the ECHL for the weekend.
An absolutely awful call on Kesselring – the “in front of the net cross-check” but he didn’t cross check him. Some decent pressure by the Heat but all to the outside. Esposito then loses a 50/50 battle and the rebound of a good shot is pounded in.
3-1 Heat totally against the flow of play. Condors dominating the 5 on 5 play.
We have yet to see a game from this season’s squad that could beat last seasn’s squad playing at their best.
Where is our A game?
Last year’s team was 5-6-0 after 11 with a GF-GA of 38-41. Perhaps this year’s team, like last season, will need more time to set sail.
They were also riding Koski like a rented mule through that stretch.
Would’ve liked this team to build off last year, at least a little bit, rather than having to find that game again.
They’ve also ridden Koski this season as well – not quite like last year but similar circumstance.
I would say a 9-2 start is indeed building off last year no matter how the games look or if we are happy with the “way they are winning”.
A lot of the season-over-season change has been at the back half of the roster.
Do we simply have to wait for Tippet & Co to coach their goal suppression and puck management up like he did last season?
I have faith that he can, if that’s the difference thus far in the two squads.
I guess in the shortened season last year there was more urgency out of the gate too.
I’d just like to see a game where they’re not so loose and all over the place. Thought that was gone.
For me, I think the defense hasn’t settled itself yet. We’ll know when the defense has a LHD on the third pair not named Russell or Koekkoek imo.
Last year’s roster had to get started with 2 new defenseman (Barrie and Koekkoek) playing 3rd pair on opening night, and Koekkoek and/or Jones got subbed by Russell and some by Lagesson pretty quickly. Up front, they added the return of Jesse, Kahun and Turris. This season they have a new second pair (Keith/Ceci) and Bouchard saw a lot less action last year than Jones or Bear did the season before. Up front, the team has added Hyman, Ryan, Foegele and to a lesser Perlini, Benson and Scevoiur. Add in MacLeod and that Shore and Turris played part time last year and had different roles. Despite this, as noted, they are 9-2. And their 5 on 5 goal share is still slightly better than it was compared to last year’s team even when you remove last year’s slow start. 51.7% vs 51.3% for the last 48 last year.
Still a lot of work to be done, to be consistent for 3 periods and lessen the chances against, but they still have 71 games to get it right. As long as they keep winning and slowly improving. We’ll see if they can put on a better performance in Boston.
Condors really took over the 1st period after the two early goals against, outshooting the Heat 14-5 despite being down 2-1
Broberg steps up as a Heat crosses the Oilers blue with speed and lays him out with a great check – shoulder to chest – fantasic.
Rodrigue gets the start – so far more information he needs the standard ECHL time that he hasn’t been provided.
Lagesson with a bad defensive zone turnover and a quick strike shot beats Rodrigue on the first shot of the game less than two minutes in.
Then, the Condors get a PP but turnover the puck crossing the offensive blueline – then Broberg and Cracknell get crossed up and a breakaway ensues and the 2nd shot beats Rodrigue through the five hole
Condors get it right back.
Broberg keeps it in at the blueline with a nice play but the Heat get control – Hamblin causes a turnover, gets it back to Deharnais who makes a beautiful pass to Malone alone in front for the goal.
Still hating nested comments
Such a time waster on a phone
I know, then I comment less 😀
People certainly in prior years talked about the Oilers lack of scoring depth. No doubt it is improved this season in part at Toronto’s expense, with the Oilers being able to sign Hyman. Right now Toronto is going through a stretch of > 15 periods spanning 6 games where only their “big 4” have scored: Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander. Fortunately for them right now, it has been enough, as they are 4-1 in that stretch and lead Philadelphia 1-0. Reilly is the only D putting up any points. That is a heavy reliance on a small group of players.
Can Petrov play in the AHL next season as a 19-year old as he was drafted out of Europe. He had been selected in the CHL import draft (1st overall remember) but had never attended a CHL game or played games.
Yes he can.
Danila Klimovich, who is still 18 was drafted by the Canucks in this past draft is playing in Abbotsford.
The Canucks, like the Oilers, signed him early to keep him out of the clutches of the KHL and their punitive treatment of players who want to play in North America.
Thanks – although I’m not sure its a direct comparable as, while he was selected in the import draft, Klimovich never played in the CHL, Petrov is playing in the CHL.
Jiri Tlusty was drafted by the Leafs out of the Czech republic in 2006 at 18. He then chose to play for the Soo Greyhounds in 2006. At the end of that season, Toronto assigned him to the Marlies for the playoffs. At the start of 07/08, Toronto again assigned him to the Marlies, even though his age would have dictated he play for the Greyhounds had he been on their roster before he was drafted. The same happened for a USHL player drafted at 18, Jerry Morin, who then played in the OHL in his draft +1 and the AHL in his draft +2.
The hook in the players is when any player signs his CHL agreement before being drafted. Petrov can play wherever the Oilers choose to assign/loan him next season.
The Canucks could have sent him to the QMHJL where he had been drafted OR the AHL.
They decided the AHL was more appropriate for his development.
More here:
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/five-things-to-know-about-danila-klimovich-the-canucks-newest-top-prospect
https://twitter.com/andrewberkshire/status/1458516984698703872?s=21
a very youthful looking Brett Connolly who some wanted to sign long term
Listening to Tip, sounds like Smith fully practiced today – Tip hadn’t talked to the trainers after but a full practice (as opposed to skating before) is a pretty good sign he’s about ready.
Makes sense to me as I don’t think Skinner would have started last night if Smith wasn’t going to be able to play Thurs or Friday – I would presume, if Smith wasn’t going to be available, Skinner would have started either Thurs/Friday and Mikko last night plus the other of the back to backs.
Starting to really feel for Kassian, the guy can’t catch a break, unless it’s to one of his bones.
That 4 year contract for $12.8 million dollars is catching a huge break.
Wow, a lot of teams having some back luck. Vegas (Stone, Pacioretty), Tampa (Kucherov again) and now Colorado compounds their early season Covid woes with this:
https://www.nhl.com/news/colorado-avalanche-nathan-mackinnon-injury-status/c-327793660
Nathan is out for 3 weeks.
A real roller coaster in Colorado.
Nate missed the first two games, then both Rantanen and Landeskog with a couple of games, Toews just comes back from surgery and Makar goes down.
Just when Makar comes back, Nate is out again.
Would help if they had some forward depth
They do.
Alex Newhook called up today.
11 points in 10 AHL games.
Fantastic. Glad we won’t have to hear any excuses about injuries if they hit a dry spell!
Mike Chamber of the Denver Post on TJMS: “I believe Sam Girard was the big piece in the efforts to get Jack Eichel here and I still think Girard is going to get traded, I think the Avs want a forward for him and they want to lose his $5M long term cap hit”
Can’t imagine why they don’t want 4 really small offensive D men playing at the same time
My guess is Joe thought looking at the market he could get some juicy returns for the talent there
Timing the market rarely works, as those types have, for me, predictably shown that very few can sustain in the NHL, as it is, as top level all round players
I don’t see it happening at this tim
Especially as the defending 2 timers loaded up at on huge at D
We’ll see if he still has the Sather in him. Eventually the other GMs learn, especially if your team is now sucking
4 really small?
Johnson 6’4″ 225
Toews 6’1″ 195
Byram 6’0″ 190 (and still growing at 20)
Ryan Murray 6’0′ 205
Makar 5’11” 190
Girard 5’10” 170
I don’t see any coke machines but Girard is the only really small one and they added a couple of big boys, Jack Johnson and Kurtis McDermid for playoff insurance .
Worth noting McDermid also plays 4th line wing in case the ruffians get out of hand.
Johnson is always injured so hard to count on him.
you might want to look at how many D where in the final 4 last year under 6’1 200 lbs which is almost their entire D corps
This is a very small defensive corps
In 2018 the avg nhl player was 6’1 200 lbs. that is exactly one person above avg size in that D corp.
now the avg defenseman is almost an inch taller and 10 lbs heavier than avg Nhler you realize that is a pint sized d Corp
Skill is more valuable than 2 inches.
At least that’s what she said.
Exactly
The 4 most skilled are under height/weight/both for NHL D
Most NHL forwards are that size or more
Sinking Joe brought in or back some bigger guys, but they are non NHL or meh
Truth
They’ve had the injuries and a dry spell.
More interesting if they finally get healthy.
This will be a really good test for Landeskog and Rantanen. Landeskog has played around 80% of his minutes 5 on 5 with MacKinnon for the last several years and Rantanen is close to that level as well. For almost all of the 20% time away from MacKinnon, Landeskog has been at or below a 40% goal share consistently year over year (except for the start of this season). Rantanen has faired a little better the last couple of years without MacKinnon, but still not great except for a few short sample sizes, like as with Landeskog for 16 minutes at the start of this season. This stretch could prove either these guys really don’t need MacKinnon to excel, or MacKinnon really is more of an MVP than previously thought.
Could be a lucky break for the Canucks though. They get Colorado twice in the next 3 weeks. Other teams from the Pacific also get a crack at them (Seattle, San Jose and Anaheim) but at least Calgary isn’t catching that break.
Well their schedule is very light in next 3 weeks without a single team expected to make playoffs
While I think that Nathan M. is “a 100-point player”, the question is if he’ll ever actually score 100 points in a season. There seems to always be something that happens so that he doesn’t get there (not always his fault, i.e. 56 game season).
Given the premier offensive talents around him for years it’s surprising that he hasn’t broken 100 points
MacK is a great player, I wanted the Oilers to have drafted him if it worked out
He is a top forward but not in the same range as the very top IMO
Crosby lite
Drai is a more effective player
Well it would be twice not his fault since 19-20 also got shortened to roughly 70 games and he played 69 of them, getting 93 points, and would certainly have scored 100 if the remaining games could have been played (as evidenced by the fact that he scored 25 points in 15 post season games that year. Just like Connor would have easily gotten to 100 in than season had he not missed a few, or if the season had been completed. MacKinnon has averaged 1.30 points per game since the beginning of 2017, just a shade behind Leon at 1.32. I hope he does get to play another 82 game his prime if not many. He is a special talent. I certainly hope he is healthy and firing on all cylinders for the Olympics.
As i said, he is definitely a “hundred point play” but never gets 100 points, not always “his fault”.
How hard is it to find an effective 3rd line center? Where can we go to look at the stats for the best players from the AHL and Europe with the metrics we want in a 3rd line center? Like faceoffs, corsi, xgf, xga, etc. Does anyone have a list of targets?
There should be a few guys available at the deadline this year.
Maybe Jeff Carter. Hertl. Tierny. Jarnkrok.
A common belief when a team seems to start slow consistently is that its a coaching issue. Maybe that’s true but I don’t get it…… I mean, i don’t think its a matter of not being prepared to play the structure or systems or the coaches telling them to get a sense of how the other team will play before they get going.
What is the coach’s job here as far as “start of game readiness”?
Are they supposed to give 82 motivational speeches? This isn’t football with a 16-18 game schedule.
When you change the line make ups you change the chemistry! The coach is the the one that sets the lines. Going into any game or competition knowing your line mates makes a difference in comfort level and confidence! It is why for years in the all star game the Stanley cup champions would beat the all star team!
Good question. I suppose if I was starting my best players and they weren’t creating good momentum, I would strongly consider starting my “energy line” (if I had one of those that was any good). Failing that I would probably start my shutdown line – if we’re going to start the game on our heels anyway, we’d may as well have our first line on the bench to sub in and hopefully counterpunch with. Just a thought.
Not many teams let 1st shot on goals or out-shot so badly as us the first in the 1st period. I feel it’s a lack of focus or readiness to start. We need to stay on focus for the 2.5 hrs and 60 minutes of playing time.
I don’t disagree but I don’t see how that’s on the coach.
With the injuries…
Hyman McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Foegele
OR
Draisaitl McDavid Puljujarvi
Foegele Nugent-Hopkins Hyman
AND
Benson McLeod Yamamoto
Perlini Ryan Sceviour
McLeod has not earned it. But I still would like to see him auditioned at 3C with Yamamoto as you list.
Perlini would be my choice as the 3LW.
I doubt Tipp moves from Ryan with no clear better option at 3C.
For me, it’s less about whether a player has “earned” an opportunity, and more about whether a team has a need that a player may be able to fill. Learned this from watching Yakupov get dealt for a 3rd round pick when he had had good results with McDavid (small sample size) but hadn’t “earned” the “right” to play with him. JMO
I hear you.
OR
Drai-McD-Bison
Benson-Nuge-Hyman
…talking about not earning it, but needing it to work.
That’s what I was thinking as well
Benson has as much skill as any in the bottom 6 and also Yama
He is defensively aware and plays the boards, and while a smaller forward he is typical NHL size
Not going to win a lot of games sleepwalking through two periods. Still don’t think we’ve seen this team close to it’s A game and here they are with a 9-2 record. There’s strength in that. Lot of tweaking left to be done before there’s a true contender vibe but there’s something cooking I’d say. There are obvious holes but also very obvious strengths. Not sure how easy it will be to fill those holes during the season all things considered, might end up having to patch them over and hope the strengths of the team outweigh the weaknesses. The big positive is that they very well might. There’s no doubt they can push hard for stretches, the key against the top teams, Detroit ain’t one, is to not give up too much in between. Anyway, still early, this part of the season is about harvesting points and figuring out who you are as a team. And they’re doing a good job with that so far imo.
In other news Jeremias Lindewall had an assist last night, his 4th of the year, all 5v5, all in the last 6-7 games which coincides with him starting to find his rythm and thus getting more ice time. He’s looking better and better, still on the fourth line but that line has looked good and was probably the teams best last night in a 4-0 win that was much less deserving than what the score suggests, the other team carried the play, two empty netters and the goalie standing on his head sealed the deal for Lindewall’s team. His assist was on the 2-0 goal and can be seen here:
https://twitter.com/swehockeygifs/status/1458147535860678659?s=20
Lindewall is #11 bursting past the D behind the net and it shows something he’s doing much better of late which is protecting the puck. That will serve him well as he’s adjusting to pro hockey.
He wasn’t picked for the swedish U20 team that’s playing a tournament this weekend, considering the coach picked a couple of players who imo are lesser players than him it’s a bit of a disappointment but he did have a pretty bad start to the year so it sort of makes sense. Hopefully his improved play these last few weeks gets him back in the WJC picture. I do think there’s a small chance he makes the roster but he’ll have to keep playing well and producing to get on the radar.
The plus side of him not playing the tournament is that he can keep getting reps with his team in Allsvenskan, the league made a pretty embarrassing mistake taking a break for international games one week too early. The whole league was paused last week when there were no other games and got back to playing this week when all the international tournaments are actually being played.
So a bunch of players will miss games with their respective club teams due to this. I think HV71, the Allsvenskan top club, are missing three players who are off with the swedish U20 team for example.
Petrov signs a three year ELC today.
Just saw this.
Really interesting that they signed him so quickly given he was, what, a sixth round pick.
This could be due to flight risk although he seems committed to North American (would have been in the CHL/OHL last season if it wasn’t for Covid).
I’ll do some research later but my guess is this might have to do with his “signing age” and the ability of the contract to slide in the future – there may have been a sign by the end of the year trigger to that which I will dig in to later.
I should mention, this kid has a swagger about him from what I’ve seen – he’s one of my new favorite prospects.
An old saying is worth remembering about now.
You win 25% of games pretty much no matter what.
You lose 25% of games pretty much no matter what.
It’s what you do with the other 50% that separate good teams from bad ones.
Last night’s game was in the lose no matter what category. Let’s see how they do tomorrow in BOS.
Good news is Skinner’s very positive play. Maybe the guy behind the bench will stop deploying his goalies like it’s April (not November). Skinner just finished his 2nd NHL game, and if he can maintain an SP anywhere near .910 this season, you keep playing him. Demko-like progress seems reasonable to me this season (at least 10 games and more if Smith remains fragile). As long as we are safely in a playoff position developing Skinner should be a priority this season. The cap situation next year demands it.
I completely agree
Why I keep calling things out like coaching, there is the pattern that hasn’t changed
All pro sports teams have bad games. The difference is ‘good’ teams don’t do it often.
Some losses, for whatever reason, sustained periods of strong play. Which leads to playoff success
The Oilers still have not been able to do that. They have a great winning streak based on having a ton of talent. Game breaking players, come backs, exceptional individual efforts.
But as a team they haven’t put it together. And the high skill guys try to take it into their own hands when they are struggling or don’t like what is happening
That way doesn’t work consistently, as the last two playoffs have shown clearly.
The dynasty team had to learn the same lesson, and they pushed earlier into their cluster of great players
For me Tippet need to show that despite his great coaching career, he can direct such a group of dominant players and their mindsets
For me these are the wild talents he has to find a way to coach up. Letting them do their thing isn’t working in the big picture. An orchestra needs a director
Connor Leon JP Nurse Bouchard
They are players used to dominating opponents. The key is getting them to use their dominant skill together, not each trying to force their will on games as they see fit
This is different from making great plays in the moment. It’s about creating a team flow of play that is sustainable and dominant as a group
Which for me is what this group of talent should be starting to show and isn’t. They aren’t youngsters anymore
PP puts up a goose egg and the team does not win – what a surprise. And it looks like the 3rd and 4th lines are regressing to the Oiler mean – bleeding GA.
Come on Holland and Tippet!
I’m not convinced that Niemelaien couldn’t be more effective as 3LD right now than Koekkoek/Russell – he is large/long and closes and players and pucks quickly and has this knack of “getting in the way” of players and pucks.
Whether those skills translate to the NHL and if his “puck skills” are good enough for the NHL is unknown but I’m not convinced he wouldn’t be more effective in that role.
Samorukov, well, he has the perfect skill-set for that role, in my opinion. Again, don’t know if his “KHL skills” will translate to the NHL but that skill set is perfect to play with Barrie in the 3rd pairing.
They will want to give Sammy a couple of months of games before they give him a shot I would think.
What is the harm with an audition for both at some point.
Buffalo and AZ are some spots to get their feet wet.
I am with you – I would like to see what we have in these 2.
I don’t think we should overreact to last nights game. The team was lethargic and couldn’t make anything rhyme. It happens. The question is how they respond. That’s the true tell.
I agree with how they respond. The bad part is we have seen this picture too often with the slow start and the 1st shot being a goal against us.
There have been no first shot goals against the Oilers yet this year.
They’ve scored the first goal in 6 of 11 games as well.
Definitely playing with fire the last 2 games though.
Does anyone else think all this time off between games is not helping? They have played 11 games. That is not a lot.
The third period encouraged me. We didn’t spend the WHOLE game napping.
If I were in Oilers management, I’d have one very burning question right now.
How does JP produce offense away from 97?
It’s really too bad they don’t think this way.
We’ve seen this before… Mcflation at 5v5 and/or on the PP.
The Zach Kassian contract.
The Darnell Nurse contract.
Alex Chiasson contract.
Here we go… Last two years per NST.
1. 714 min 2. 201 min 3. 409 min
JP and McDavid FF% = 54 CF% = 55 GF%= 56 xGF% = 58 55 Gf/60= 4.3 ga/60 = 3.4
JP without FF% = 50 CF% = 47 GF%= 40 xGF% = 58 Gf/60= 1.2 ga/60 = 1.8
McDavid without FF% = 55 CF% = 65 GF%= 59 xGF% = 59 Gf/60= 3.7 ga/60 = 2.5
We’ve seen Jesse before?
Kassian and Chiasson never for a second have brought what Jesse brings to 200 ft of ice.
Nurse is on defense and his play was getting him paid here or elsewhere.
Other then 97/29 who’s the most noticeable Oiler at any time? Jesse stands out because he does stand out things all on his own accord.
Jesse time away from McDavid was spent on the 3rd and 4th line last season no?
Jesse will be paid for playing a 200ft game, he may get a slight McDavid bump, but he’ll be paid handsomely anywhere in the league for his 200ft game.
The question is what JP’s next contract might look like.
There is no argument against the reality that playing someone heavily with 97 during a contract year is a recipe for an overpay on their next contract.
The premise is solid but, if the coach thinks that JP with McDavid gives the team the best chance to win on any given night, well, he’s got to deploy that way. The coach can’t coach with future contract ramifications in mind.
With that said, for me, I do think that Yamamoto on McDavid’s wing (when they go “load up”) and Jesse on the 2nd line gives the team the best chance to win. That’s a way to find out what Jesse can do away from Connor (and Leon) and still give the team “the best chance to win” – in my opinion.
Very fair question. There may be a value-in-use component to these types of contracts, however. While I’d argue that paying Kassian based on McFlated production was nuts – it’s because he was highly unlikely to be a longterm staple on the McWing. JP, on the other hand, would have a much higher likelihood of being deployed in that role moving forward (although I’d say that they’ve looked pretty disconnected at times). That would suggest that McFlated figures are actually representative of what JPs next contract ‘ought’ to be. In fact, if his numbers weren’t McFlated, he shouldn’t even be on that line.
Perhaps the best analysis at this point would be relative McFlation – Maroon vs Lucic vs JP vs Kassian vs Drai vs Nuge …. ?
Yeah, that would make sense, but it’s a challenging equation since there’s also the peak McDavid factor. 97 today is even better than the 97 that played with Maroon or Kassian.
Either way, you pay for counting numbers on the contract. There’s not much room for context.
The Kassian contract was an obvious blunder that many with myself included lamented at the time. There were people who defended it in the thread here too.
Those stats are useless if you don’t control for Draisaitl.
The stats are totally unfair in that he played with the bottomless six when he wasn’t with 97.
Still, if I were in management, I’d want to see JP play significant time without 97.
I’d like to have a look at how he plays on a line centred by 29. (not much of a downgrade) and as well maybe on a line with Hymen and Nuge or something.
If JP puts up <1.5 points per hour in 200+ minutes with Hymen and Nuge, maybe he isn’t a player you want to break the bank for.
If you were playing him to win his next contract, you’d put him on the third line with Foegele and Ryan to see what he could do (which would create a massive hole in the top six obviously).
My inner suit-wearing money-grubber says we should strongly consider a pump-and-dump with Jesse. As an Oilers fan I want Mr. Holland to find the damn money somewhere and don’t bother me with the details until it’s time for me to blame him for the specific way he freed up cap space 😉
That guy is responsible for the shit show the world is in now
Put that suit in the bonfire
And then put it in again
Stats should be in line with what we see
I say that because an uncle is a prof of stats and that is what he says
If the numbers say awesome and the eye says that player isn’t helping then it needs further study and opposite
Mike Hoffman can score, but is useless at everything else
So a GM can add up goals and go get some more if his tally is short
still won’t win
Smarter would he see who outscores, and get the coach to coach to the roster that is available in a cap league
This is the best roster the Oilers have had in years
The individual development of several players is driving this success
Still the team plays like always. Inconsistent energy and team play. Constant D zone breakdowns leaving clean close in looks
The only player for me with a clean slate of games so far is JP. I don’t recall a poor or less than expected game from him. And he’s been producing and scoring timely goals
Otherwise established players are tapering off in play.
For me coaching in the NHL is far more than X’s and O’s
Tippet has coached for years, you don’t do that if you aren’t good
Maybe it’s that he’s not a good fit with this team. Sather was brilliant mostly for me because he was able to make that group into something special
Gretzky and other superstars may not be the easiest to handle. Not because of poor attitude but because they are used to being able to do what they want on the ice
How do convince them to change how they play? Because nobody can consistently do that, and getting impatient and forcing plays doesn’t work as a plan, you lose at least as many as win
I find Connor and Leon together either blow it up or start forcing things when the opponent is disrupting them effectively
The two goals were rush skill goals. Individual efforts. That doesn’t work in the long run, we know.
Why can’t so many good experienced players get in sync and play well as a team game to game? Yes they need some upgrades, but no team is perfect. Their coaches are getting more from average players
In think it is the system. It doesn’t matter who is on the ice, the breakdowns and problems are always the same, look the same
Maybe this coaching group doesn’t fit with the core. Can’t get through, don’t know how to Sather this group of wild stallions.
Connor was terrible yesterday other than his goal. He is too motivated and cooperative to still be playing how he did.
He is much more than a frustrated jail breaker forcing plays everywhere and turning the puck over often costing a GA
I see Elizondo level lack of creativity from the coaches. There are enough horses now.
Mr Magoo could coach that powerplay that is no feather in their cap
One game yes, but we need to see that chaos and the slow starts leaving their game progressively, as the season goes along, or there is the problem I think there is
They have to grow, and it’s isn’t happening yet as I see it
The initial bump in special teams play after flattop left was easy to attribute to Tippett and Co, but there are a lot of the same old trends underlying the improvement in the standings
Connor and Leon are older
Given Nuge it was inevitable even if Flat Top held them back
Maybe not this but deadly
The PP suit Connor and Leon’s natural want, and Nuge’s strengths
They shouldn’t have signed Barrie. They don’t need his offense. Nurse could have done the same PP and he was signed
Or Bouch could have. Or Keith
Now they try to figure out how to hide puck movers with no defensive skill
And that isn’t OMB
That was a sobering game. Many holes observed wildly obvious against a bottom half of the league team. Not a good look for the good guys.
I honestly have faith in Ryan to turn things around in the stat column but he’s clearly a 3.5C, not a 3C. He’d be a great 4C but the marginal benefit of spending futures and current assets on that position may not be wise. Having an elite top 6 allows for a bit of weakness in the bottom 6. How much, is the question.
A top 4 (or hell even a top 6) LHD is very much needed and a better use of assets, imo.
G, dare I say, hasn’t lost the Oil more than 1 game (the Phi game). Kosk didn’t look great against the NYR but he kept them within striking distance, much the way Skinner did yesterday. The 3rd goal just didn’t come. A healthy Smith and 3/4 good games from Koski was the original Holland bet and, so far, that bet is in the black. Skinner needs to work on finding the puck if he can’t absorb it because he will absolutely not get early whistles.
This team’s problem is D! Still!! Barrie is a tire fire in his own zone. Ceci is ok but honestly a stretch in a top 4. Keith is way too slow to be effective on this team in the top 4. If he were in a model that played a tighter team game, maybe. KK is a #6 Dman if his partner isn’t chaos.
This D Corps has too many flawed players that need to be babysat by calm but quick feet. And there’s only 1 Bouch. Even Darrel has chaos to his game. In a top pairing, he needs a calm balance. We need 2 more Bouches.
Is that 2 more of last night’s Bouchard?
You take the good with the bad, and the bad nights with the good. And hope the aggregate is in line with expectation.
Keith is not slow
I don’t know why that’s a thing here
Playfair talked about how he defends
Called it ‘surfing’ to the player and angling him off
I can think of another guy like that, not that they are comparable, but Lidstrom
The moment he misplays that read, he gets beat pretty easily to the outside because his boots don’t shift all that quickly anymore. We see it at least once a game. Sometimes it ends up in the net, sometimes it doesn’t.
I have not watched any Calgary games so I can only sort out their rough bottom 6 with TOI:
Eliminating the top 6 forwards for Calgary in an effort to get to how their bottom 6 are doing.
Remember what Calgary is rolling out for a 3rd pairing.
GF / GA
Dube – 8-7
Mangiapane – 9-7
Monahan – 3 – 5
Lucic – 5-6
Pitlick- 4-3
Ritchie 5-2
I wonder how much time Calgary’s first pair plays with lines 3 & 4.
In the games, I watch them roll 4 lines and they all work hard and are more difficult to play against. That’s much more than what I can say about our bottom 6
I had last night as a Guaranteed Loss Night, glad I didn’t watch.
Question now is whether they can pull the nose of the plane up out of the dive?
If the coach’s are going to go “load up” with McDavid and Drai, for me, its time to have Yamamoto with them. That trio has had massive success in the past and Jesse is so good now that he could help Nuge and Hyman form a plus 2nd line, I would think.
This is what I’d do as well, I’d keep 13 with 97 and 29 centering his own line but if you’re going to pair up the big 2 move Jesse to the Nuge line and let him drive.
Given I would presume most would prefer Marody as the more “famous name”, I just wanted to note that Seth Griffith has been the best forward for the Condors, and it hasn’t been close. He also outperformed Marody at camp and has NHL experience.
Seth was the best player for the Manitoba Moose as well for the last 2 years he played here as well.
Don’t know enough about him to make a call but I assume there is a skating issue or some other defect in his game because he can clearly score in the AHL.
Edit: Your point is very valid. Seth deserves a shot over anyone else.
My concerns in limited viewings of Griffith with Bako & in Oilers camp are at the defensive end of the sheet. He’s smart & skilled on the attack.
Evan Bouchard had good “shot metrics” but got caved in high danger chances and that lines up with the Cult of Hockey review that had him at fault on 11 high danger chances against – a record.
To my eye, that was Bouchard’s worst game ever in the NHL but that’s OK, its going to happen and he’s being asked to play big minutes. This was a game where it would have been nice to walk his minutes and level of comp back but, of course, the d-man that may have been worse was Tyson Barrie.
No question -that was a tire fire game for Evan.
Rookies are going to have games like that ….but it was ugly.
But Barrie’s play on the Namestikov goal was not just being a turnstile it is was
his effort level on the check as well.
Looked Sam Gagner esque…
Bouchard’s low pulse under pressure is an asset most of the time, but really shows poorly when he’s just a little bit off, like last game. He flubbed pucks, got pickpocketed, and generally made plays too late.This never happened to Matt Greene who’d ice the puck at most opportunities, but then again he’d only be able to fantasize about the pass Bouchard made to McDavid who set up Puljujärvi. It happens, but the whole team should wake up and get to work on their collective effort and concentration levels!
Friedman reporting Holland looking at a LHD and a goalie?
Goalie?
3C is starting to really look like a need here- far above goaltending.
Right, though someone needs to sift out 3C results with the different D pairs, I think Uncle Steve noted already that Ryan is getting caved with Barrie.
Getting an upgrade on Russell and Koekkoek would help.
Agreed our 3rd pairing is not helping out.
LHD is a big need. Barrie needs a safety blanket.
How much of the 3C problem is on Tip? He is so unimaginative with his line-up choices. The Oilers have three quality centres, the problem is Tip will never play RNH on the third line. If the third line is getting caved run McD-Drai-RNH-Ryan down the middle for a few games. Simple.
I can’t figure out why we cannot cobble together bottom 2 lines that don’t bleed.
Other teams with seemingly far less talent seem to create competent 3rd lines.
Calgary keeps playing Gudbranson and Zadorov.
Sometimes I think it literally comes down to work ethic. Simple effort and determination.
Goalie? He must know something we don’t.
Good, LD is a major problem
Not sure there is an LD that will fix Tyson Barrie’s magical stick waving in the D zone.
Like he is waving a wand wishing away offensive players in his own end.
The GM and the coach blamed Bear instead of the crappy #3LD. Why aren’t they blaming Barrie?
Derek Ryan and Warren Foegle -it isn’t just last night, is it?
They are having a run. At first, I thought Derek was dragging down Foegle.
But I am starting to question that now. Warren has strung some games together here where he is looking like a clone of Kassian in his own end.
Bruce M on the COH hockey podcast mentioned Derek Ryan has not scored in 9 games.
And by my eye- looks to be in no jeopardy of doing so.
Ryan opened the scoring in Game 2 vs Calgary, & otherwise has not scored a point.
i’ve been hoping that 2-goal season in 2021 was an anomaly, but I’m concerned. Rooting hard for the guy, but that cliff comes up fast.
The hope, well, at least my hope, was that McLeod would continue a positive trajectory and replace Ryan at 3C on merit.
Of course, McLeod has not done so and doesn’t seem to be anywhere close to taking the required steps.
I’ve been talking about Ryan being better suited to 4C including for managing his minutes given he’s approaching 35. He played 11 minutes per game last year for the flames.
Dylan Holloway may be the key here but that may not come until next season (maybe later this year but we certainly can’t count on that at this point).
I would also entertain the idea of Hyman to RW (his natural position, is it not?) allowing them to keep Yamamoto on with 37/10.
Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Perlini – Nuge – Hyman
Foegle – Ryan – Yamamoto
Benson – McLeod – Turris
I suppose you could swap Benson/Perlini
Both Hyman and Foegele played more RW than LW last year.
When does the comment freeze happen again? Just asking for a friend.
I forgot, thanks for reminding me. 🙂
The difference in forechecking between Yama and Kassian is stark, and noticeable with three shifts. Scary stuff.
Very much so.
NEW for The Athletic Why can’t the Oilers put together an effective third line?
Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers put together an effective third line? – The Athletic
Unicorn hunting?
Is Grace missing an ear? 🙂
Man, the chart on the 3rd line with McLellan just tells the story right there. Wow.
And interesting to me Todd was using Kassian on the 3rd line 5 years ago 😉
5 yr older Zack obviously not a good thing
Lots of concern about Barrie and Koekoek last night but this caught my eye this morning in the Cult of Hockey player grades:
Evan Bouchard, 2. Nightmare game on defence. He contributed on the attack but made 11 major mistakes on Grade A chances against this game. Eleven! That’s a record since we’ve been tracking these numbers. Super Ouch! That came after he made just 14 such mistakes total in his first 10 games. He executed a great heads up pass to McDavid down low culminating in a Puljujarvi one-timer. A moment later he was beat on the pass allowing Detroi’s Fabbri to get off a Grade A shot, then got beat on a slot pass as Erne got off a 5-alarmer in tight. A moment later came chaos in the crease, with Bouch part of that chaos on three quick Detroit crease jams at the puck. In the second he softly and gently and out-of-positionally allowed Namestnikov to pound in a crease shot for Detroit’s second goal.”
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/player-grades-sleepy-edmonton-oilers-lose-one-in-detroit-rock-city/wcm/029c047b-6f7d-42bb-9593-0e12b44d20ef/amp/
I am much less worried about a young defender having a rough go for a single game. The Oilers “veteran” D Barrie getting lit up every shift all season is a problem.
No one should be surprised by this.
It was very predictable based on his play last year.
6 in the first period, 4 in the second, 1 in the third. I vetted these scoring chances, as per usual.
In one looong shift of 2:55 he was on for 1 for (a beauty o-zone feed to McD) & then 5 against, all of which came after Barrie had changed on for Nurse with Kassian & company up front. The ensuing minute and a half was a house of horrors, with Bouchard himself looking completely overmatched. Skinner saved all of their butts, 5 times over.
MacT singled out his lack of coverage of Namestnikov on the 2-0.
Somehow Bouch led the Oilers D in ice time, even more than Nurse. According to NST he had a Corski of 26-20 but a High Danger of 6-13, which kind of encapsulated his night.
Important context.
I think most people understand there’s going to be nights like this with a rookie dman.
Bouchard does a lot of good things with the puck on his stick, but there are definite holes in his game without it.
My concern is that the Oilers are relying on this guy to play top pairing minutes right now. Not a good recipe for success, and not a good recipe for the players development.
Maybe it is a good recipe for player development though? I remember Nurse getting thrown in the deep end too early as well.
That was due to injury more than merit.
If I remember correctly, Nurse was crushing it as 3LD but was moved up to 1LW, to play with Sekera on his off-side, and it didn’t go well. I presume it was a Klef injury that required the jump.
I agree. I saw him bad last night. I also feel like each game going by he has been getting worst not better. Seems like he makes 1 or 2 bad passes per game. Maybe he is forcing it or taking too many high-risk chances. I would like to forwards not to fly the defensive zone so quick. I do feel that is part of the problem.
Zack Kassian’s night on NST:
TOI 3:19
Corski 0-9
Fenski 0-8
Shots 0-5
SC 0-8
HDC 0-7
Left the game in the first period with third degree burns.
Groin?
Scorch marks!
in 3 minutes!
Other than that not a bad game by Kass?
Well he has Stuart Skinner to thank for escaping with a 0-0 in the ultimate metric. All those other ones are just minor details, eh.
Less than Zero was Brett Easton Ellis’ first book.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co_WC8WCRJg
https://twitter.com/RyanHanaWWP/status/1458233740119924737?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
This is probably where he injured himself.
Mcleod was pretty bad last night. His problem isn’t so much he isn’t physical, his problem is the puck is not his friend.
Koekoek was also terrible.
Keith doesn’t skate well and so is always backing in. Not a recipe for success, Kris Russell notwithstanding.
This team has holes, but we knew that.
On the other side of it, Perlini looks to me like a player, he deserves a chance. Benson too, the issue is that at the bottom of the lineup none of these guys are good enough to overcome a weaker linemate, so they all go down together.
I would think about going 11 and 7. The Oilers don’t have four centers, so play three.
Hyman–McDavid–Puljujarvi
Nuge–Draisatl–Yamamoto
Foegele–Ryan–Perlini/Sceviour
Benson–McDavid/Draisatl/Nuge–Marody
That fourth line would outscore their mistakes.
With 7 D, you can mix and match based on situation and try and limit the 3rd pairing disasters.
That 3rd line looks pretty similar to what we have been running….and it ain’t good.
The Oilers have four centres. Run McD, Drai, RNH, and Ryan.
Agreed on McLeod. He needs to take some notes from Hyman on being heavy on the puck. You can’t just whiff on an uncontested puck that many times in your own zone.
I wonder how much difference there is between Kris Russell in his prime and Lee Fogolin in his prime.
I mean besides 2 Stanley Cups.
I really liked Lee.
An interesting question.
I realize it’s not fair to compare eras but who really thinks the defencemen of that era could even compete in the league as it is right now? The size, the speed, the skating abilities….
Apples to oranges IMO.
For me the biggest difference is the Goaltending they had half the equipment and pads that weighed 50 pounds when wet. Goalies were unique they all had their own style’s and it was the golden age for cool masks. Today they wait for the puck to hit them where back in the 70’s-80’s it was all about reflexes and double padded saves.
“It’s like Kris Russell is their hero.”, lol classic LT.
EDM Goal Share after 11 gp (9-2-0)
Even strength(5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29(3-4) 43%
29 w/o 97(5-1) 83%
97&29 On(10-5) 67%
93 w/o either(3-2) 60%
Ryan (3-8) 27%
Other(2-4) 33%
Net EV +2
Special Teams:16-4
Net ST +12
Empty Net:4-4
Net EN 0
SO/PS 1-0
Net SO/PS +1
Goal Diff +15
Ryan is 0-3 with Barrie. 3-5 w/o Barrie. xGF% 28.84 with Barrie and 56.94 w/o Barrie. His numbers are ugly this season but seem to be compounded when on the ice with Barrie.
And again, small sample size, but I wonder how much of an effect the D are having on the third line numbers. In 16-17, we had more off-the-glass-and-out types, and maybe this contributed to the lower actual GF%? Because from an xGF, this third line is doing fine? Counter argument to that is that the team’s SV% that year vs. this is almost identical, so who knows?
Oilers showed up last night vs Detroit entitled, arrogant and for reference see:
The Tortoise and The Hare fable.
1000% true.