The Oilers are a loose group on this road trip, surrendering 12 five-on-five goals in four games while scoring 11. The shot share in the four games at five-on-five is 49.5 percent, so the club is break even-ish in the discipline. Given Edmonton’s strong special teams, that should be enough to get a result most nights. Coach Dave Tippett always shuffles lines on road trips, how are they working on this trip? It’s fascinating.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?
- DNB and Max Bultman: How Hockey Hall of Famer Ken Holland helped create ‘the Harvard of hockey management’
- Lowetide: How good is Matvey Petrov and is he on an NHL trajectory?
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland make an early-season trade to bolster the Oilers?
- New DNB: Oilers lament Connor McDavid not drawing penalties
- New Jonathan Willis: How the Decade of Darkness did — and didn’t — set up the current success
- New Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers put together an effective third line?
- DNB: Oilers’ Stuart Skinner on the right track after second NHL start
- DNB: What I believe and what I know about the Oilers after 10 games
- Lowetide: How close to balanced are the 2021-22 Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s otherworldly goal
- DNB: Kevin Lowe Q&A
- Lowetide: Is this Connor McDavid’s peak season, and how good could it be?
- Lowetide: Who is the Oilers’ top prospect now that Evan Bouchard has graduated?
- DNB: Oilers’ Tyson Barrie says what needs to be said as NHL faces reckoning
- Lowetide: Did Oilers general manager Ken Holland win the offseason?
- DNB: The Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci pair have helped to overcome a notable loss
- Jonathan Willis: Seven Oilers surprises so far in 2021-22
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: SEA, NAS, NYR (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, BOS, BUF, STL, WPG (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: WPG, CHI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DAL, ARI, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- Actual November results: 5-2-0, 10 points in seven games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 11-3-0, 22 points in 14 games
The Jets are once again a strong five-on-five team, owning a 59 percent goal share and averaging 2.61 goals-for per 60 and 1.83 per 60 GA. Edmonton has a 3.01 goals-per-60 and a 2.93 goals-against, so odds favour the Jets winning the five-on-five goal share by 1+ goals.
Special teams is a different story. Edmonton averages 17.55 goals-per-60 on the power play, Winnipeg 8.65 (a solid number). On the PK, the Oilers give up 4.03 goals-per-60, Winnipeg 12.39.
Edmonton’s power play versus Winnipeg’s penalty kill has the potential to make headline news. Often doesn’t work that way, but the numbers are extreme.
OILERS LINEUP ON THE ROAD
In my article at The Athletic yesterday, part of the comments section was about Ryan McLeod and his work on the third line. I count the third line as a complete unit, so that’s McLeod with winger Warren Foegele and (on this trip) Kyle Turris. Here are the numbers for the four games of the trip, although these lines may not have been in place for the entire trip.
- Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi: 38:37, 21-25 shots, 3-2 goals, 8-10 HDSC
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 38:28, 18-14 shots, 5-3 goals, 8-3 HDSC
- Foegele-McLeod-Turris: 7:54, 4-7 shots, 1-1 goals, 1-4 HDSC
- Benson-Ryan-Sceviour: 7:54, 6-6 shots, 0-2 goals, 1-1 HDSC
- Darnell Nurse-Evan Bouchard: 72:31, 46-45 shots, 4-4 goals, 2-4 HDSC
- Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci: 62:25, 29-30 shots, 4-5 goals, 8-11 HDSC
- Kris Russell-Tyson Barrie: 21:25, 12-11 shots, 1-1 goals, 2-2 HDSC
- Slater Koekkoek-Tyson Barrie: 17:37, 6-12 shots, 1-2 goals, 1-3 HDSC
Some interesting things here, including the wacky HDSC totals for the Keith-Ceci duo. Lordy. The top two lines are high event but a combined 8-5 for the four games and that’s good if the bottom-six can play at par. That has not been the case in these four games, with a 1-3 goal differential. Ryan on the fourth line should be a success, the veteran is playing in some poor luck over the last 10 games, and he and his linemates have been unable to defend in big moments.
I think the Oilers are willing to tolerate chaos on the third and fourth lines, as long as the wins pile up, with the solution somewhere around the trade deadline. If this team goes into a tailspin, all bets are off.
Recall options are Dylan Holloway (when he’s healthy), Cooper Marody and Seth Griffith. That isn’t a strong list.
Trade? Oilers have several prospect defensemen in Bakersfield who could fetch something of value.
I think Broberg is moving his timeline up for recall. At the start of the season, certainly after his pedestrian training camp, it was my opinion he would need the entire 2021-22 season, and that could still be the case. However, Broberg’s speed is a major positive, and he can move the puck effectively. Coverage and decisions are going to be uneven on arrival (rookie defensemen will break your heart) but the current combination of Russell and Koekkoek for third pair LH side isn’t going to make it to the playoffs.
Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov are more experienced and a better style match, so should be a more likely early recall. Tippett can get impatient in a hurry with his defensemen, so we could see a recall.
As for trading one of these men for immediate forward help, it’s so early in the season and dealing (say) Samorukov could be extremely short sighted. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Edmonton’s left defense depth chart as Nurse-Broberg-Samorukov in the years to come, although the club has been hesitant to run young for long stretches.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the ground running on an historic day for Edmonton. John Molinaro from TFC Republic will join us at 10:20 to preview the Canada-Mexico match tonight in World Cup qualifying at Commonwealth. He wrote a fabulous primer here. At 10:40, Tyler Yaremchuk from Oilers Nation will pop by to talk Oilers-Jets and the Blue Jays signing of Jose Berrios to a massive deal. Murat Ates from The Athletic Winnipeg will help us preview the Jets side of tonight’s game, the club has improved its puck moving from defense out and Pierre-Luc Dubois is settling in as a difference maker this year. Crossfire! with Sal and Al at 11:20 and Matthew Iwanyk will pop in at 11:40 to help set up the Canada-Mexico tilt. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
That soccer game for 98 minutes was the best game a Canadian team has ever played, glad they hung on to it!
The NHL is a disgrace to itself. They might have won with more PP time. But there are serious issues that lead to me already tempering expectations to avoid the big let down later
4 of the Oilers top 6 are mediocre finishers. Supporting the 2 best forwards in the game.
None of the 4 are crusty, 2 are undersized. 2 are signed long term. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
They really need some agro out of those 4 spots given the stars aren’t that type.
Because being such a vanilla team, teams full of dirtbags like the Jets will do that every time if there are only 20% of the penalties called and the Oilers roll over being attacked physically.
They need a couple of pricks that can play getting minutes in the heart of the game. Or Connor or Leo going full Crosby and injuring a slime like Pionk with malice. That seemed to tone things down for Sid.
Oh, and the Elks won!
This league would only care about penalties if McPrecious played in a bigger market.
The referring is simply incompetent, as is the leadership of the NHL … no conspiracy theories required.
Definitely, but the whole code of earning things in the NHL leads to more missed calls on the best young players, especially Connor and Leon.
Was watching the Winnipeg feed tonight about maybe 11 minutes into the first one of the talking heads was talking approvingly about how the zebras let most penalties go and letting them play is how it should be and I just got this visceral wave of disgust and anger and thought, “this is never going to change, don’t I already have enough anger in my life?” I shut the game off. Just watched the highlights, felt the exact same thing watching the Jets second goal and damn near shut the highlights off, too! Ryan was clearly just asking to be hit in the numbers, skating along minding his own business like that. I think I need an NHL break. Wish that didn’t also entail an Oilers break. I love this team, sure do dislike the league they play in though.
Oh yeah, there was a hockey game. Real stinker of a first goal by Mikko, that was double plus ungood. The highlights showed him making some damn fine saves too, and another time I’d be up for a “how many good saves make up for a stinker” conversation, but today… I dunno, what is the point in legitimizing a contest that lies about the rules it follows by treating it as though it is a legitimate contest?
I think the worst part is knowing that this is going to get worse. This whole sloppy dishonest travesty leads inexorably to the playoffs, where the rules are even more dishonest and people act as though hockey is somehow more hockey when you ignore some of the rules sometimes for some teams according to secret criteria that we can guess at, but are never revealed.
I think it’s especially frustrating for me because I know how smart so many hockey fans are. They’ll argue passionately about fenwick versus corsi versus “seen him good” versus “coach likes him” versus “team chemistry” versus “clutch performer” and people often come up with pretty sophisticated and nuanced takes that didn’t occur to me. Hockey fans are smart enough to know that when you alter the rules of a contest, you alter the outcome of a contest, yet so many of them act as though these contests are the result of the players and not the league.
Sorry for the big sour rant, I’m gonna take a break and come back without wanting to stick all the owners up each others butts like a recursive matrioshka doll. Lotta music fans here, I’ll leave you with a lyric from Society, by Pennywise:
When finding the truth makes no difference to you
Anyway you look at it, you’re gonna get screwed
You lose
Well, when you come back, you should post more like this.
Excellent and appreciated rant. I did the same tonight. Can’t even watch the highlights.
This post completely encapsulated everything I feel about NHL hockey right now.
I think this team really misses Archie. He would be a better fit on the third line than Kassian.
This team misses a #1 goalie, and everyone knows it.
Not sure I’ve forgiven Archie yet for clipping Stanley in game 3 at 4-1. We all know what happened next. I said to my wife at the time, “good time to take that penalty!” Oh Lordy that was a bad night.
The timing and intent on that play was not great, but I understand the thinking that drove him to make that decision. The players feel they need to take things in their own hands when the reffing is so atrocious.
Getzlaf hits 1000 points.
Great career
That is why this team needs to be better 5v5. Riding hot special teams and being average in the most common game state is not going to cut it against good hockey clubs.
The D really struggled today and the bottom six was horrendous. This is a game where, if the bottom six can saw off the opp, you win the game or send it to OT. Koskinen wasn’t great, but you don’t generally win games scoring 0 EV goals and giving up 3.
The D were not good at all retrieving pucks, on outlets, or defending. Multiple culprits.
I don’t really think that’s all correct, to my eye.
I thought that third line played well and their possession numbers bear that out.
The Drai line was poor at 5 on 5.
Team does need to be better 5v5 but this was a game where we didn’t match Winnipeg physically. Two play’s really impacted the outcome: Koski let’s in a soft one (he bounced back after but that hurt) on the first goal against, and then Schieffle picks Ryan, no call and the puck is in the back of the net for the 2nd.
The D struggled again with a heavy forecheck – but that’s nothing new. My question though is it because we want to fly the zone and not support the puck or are we just not capable of making passes under pressure?
No doubt the team misses Archie but, for me, they miss him as 4RW.
Kass is who he is, a flawed player, but I thought he was one of the better forwards on the night tonight.
His 38%GF would fit right in 😉
McDavid is 45% without Drai.
Derek Ryan Tonight:
CF% 22%
SF% 20%
Goals For:0 / Goals against: 2
All in 5 minutes of ice time.
Tippett threw in the towel after the 2nd goal against.
2 year contract…Our pro scouting is still bad.
I still think Ryan might be fine as a 12th-13th forward and not playing every night. But the 4th line doesn’t do anything: score, defense, intimidate, nothing really except bleed goals. With a team like the Oilers I think it may be better to have a 4th line that plays little but breaks even and scares the crap out of the other team. That would be better than this dogs breakfast.
Ryan got levelled from behind by Scheifle on one of those goals tonight. Not sure he can be faulted for getting blindsided and driven face first into the ice. Koskinen got beat clean from a good ways out seconds later … probably lost focus for a split second after seeing his teammate get hit with a filthy dirty hit that the refs did nothing about.
That’s all well and good except for the fact they didn’t sign Ryan to be a 12-13th forward.
They are paying him close to one
Okay, I’ll trade Koskinen and the 1st round pick for Demko..
Why would Vancouver want to get worse?
Forget the outcome, as someone already mentioned, this Pionk guy continues to play filthy. Happened all last year as well.
At some point, if it is not asking too much, would be nice if one of our players asked him to settle down.
4 years $9.6 million Did he touch anybody?
Yeah, not sure he threw a hit.
That said, I thought he played pretty well. Relative to other Oiler forwards.
There are certain forwards that sure are talented, but sure seem
to struggle with ground and pound playoff type hockey.
4 yrs, $12.8M.
Jets have 6-8 guys who play that way. Only Kass is willing to cross the line but he has been getting hurt constantly.
Opposition teams will be built and play dirty to defeat the Oilers until our bottom 6 and some of our top 6 is even filthier. You can refer to the structure of the only Oiler team that has won a round of hockey lately to see an appropriate response. We need surround the skill with plenty of heavies. Fog and Kass are a decent start but guys like Turris, Perlini are useless and Ryan is probably a 13th forward at this point. No overpaid slugs like Lucic – more Maroons please.
Shut out at 5 on 5
That’s a tough road trip but it’s still too early for the Gordon Lightfoot references
Continually playing from behind is not a winning strategy. Not sure what Tip can do to avoid crappy first periods. I guess not letting in a weak goal on the first shot would help.
Was it a first shot goal tonight? If so I believe that’s the first one of the year (though it’s been mentioned as an issue every single game).
Tom Gazzola
@TomGazzola
· 1h
In his last six starts Mikko Koskinen has allowed a goal on 2nd shot vs SEA, 3rd shot vs NSH, 2nd shot vs NYR (snipe from Chytil), 4th shot vs BOS, 10th shot vs STL & 1st shot vs WPG. He’s rebounded well in those games (4 wins) but it’s a problem.
This team will get into the playoffs easily with the current tandem, but if they’re going to make some noise in the playoffs then they will need more consistent goaltending.
Koskinen is a bit of a dichotomy in that he makes a lot of saves … many of them good saves … but let’s in bad ones at really bad times. He’s like the anti-Fuhr. For a guy his size he sure leaves a lot of open net to shoot at.
I like Mikko, and it sounds like he’s well liked in the dressing room
He’ll give you 5 or 6 highlight reel saves every night, AND he’ll let in 4
I don’t think Ken Holland is going to the post season for the 3rd year in a row with Mikko Koskinen – I just don’t see it happening
He may with Mikko Koskinen as the back-up – lets not forget, Mike Smith is coming back and, as Ken Holland said this afternoon, he’ll be fresh and ready to play games.
The salary cap may force that outcome, but if you put Holland under a bare bulb and sweat it out of him, he’d tell you that a Smith/Koskinen tandem is not the pair he’d want to go to war with
Yeah. His GAA is under 3 on the season and for his career. That said, I’m not totally blind to Koskinen’s shortcomings.
I just think the grass is always greener, and a lot of the ‘upgrades’ come with their own questions (eg – Gibson who’ll cost a 1st + significant prospect, plus the 6 x $6.4M commitment for a guy who was 49th of 67 goalies in SV% over the prior 2 seasons – scares the shit out of me).
It’s a conundrum
The short term rentals on expiring contracts…Halak, Greiss et al..are they going to give you better results?
I can’t say with any certainty..any goalie can get hot, including Koskinen
Holland has gone to the post season twice with these 2, I don’t think he’ll do it a 3rd time
We wait
I’m all for an upgrade. I’m just not sure what that looks like.
If Holland is one thing it’s patient. I don’t think he’d shuffle the deck chairs for someone like Greiss or Halak (who both have worse numbers than Koskinen; I can’t speak to their first shot goal rates).
I kinda do think there’s a good chance Holland will run Smith/Koskinen (in that order) out there a 3rd time, in particular if Mikko’s got a .915ish SV% and/or is still leading the league in wins.
Here’s the first goal allowed by Koskinnen in his last five games:
Shot 1
Shot 10
Shot 4
Shot 2
Shot 3
I wouldn’t say he’s figured it out.
The gales of November have come slashing
phlegms with another LOSER point
Send out whoever qualifies as the good squad and send a damn message.
Tired of stars having to handle this crap on their own. That’s a coaching failure.
Nearly every Jet took a crack at Leon’s spinal cord tonight.
Hopefully, Tippet writes a strongly worded letter to the NHL.
More and more cross-checking. I wonder if those are legit.
Damn, that’s Jesse’s third shot from the slot point blank.
Him and Nuge have had glorious opportunities.
Huge kill – now go get a goal.
Drai takes a double minor. Goes and scores two goals.
McDavid takes a minor. Goals to follow?
Roughing lol
Pionk’s a dirty little prick
so is scheifele
That’s a real shame, couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.
Penalties against McDvid are an absolute joke.
That was a legit call.
My point still stands
Watch closely … Pionk pulled a Corey Perry on McDavid
McDavid needs to just go off on the refs every single night … he gets absolutely no respect from them anyways. That’s the second time he’s got snookered on that fake snap back of the head … you could just see the smirk on Pionk’s face afterwards.
Could have been a major.
He led with his elbow.
There is the narrative post – not even close to a major.
Logan Stanley’s hit from behind is the one that could have been a major.
Or Scheifele’s hit on Ryan at centre ice … Ryan was nowhere near the puck when he got crosschecked on to his face.
HH shut the hell up … McDavid got Corey Perry’d again for the second time in less than year. He didn’t even touch Pionk’s head … that shit eating grin on Pionk’s face told the whole story.
2-0 Canada!!!!!
That’s the first time I’ve seen a soccer/football celly with a dive into a snowbank
That was amazing. Never had soccer cheer me up after a rough hockey night.
Yup, the certainly looked like a head shot by McDavid.
Somebody needs to pound Dubois
Oilers have very little of that in their line up. Too bad…
Still too nice.
This would be a fine time for some depth scoring.
Lol….
Not expecting a win tonight, but I’m satisfied with the McDrai Points.
17 friggin goals and 33 points in 15 games for Drai…
Man can that guy play the Hockey!
Crazy! Draisaitl’s on pace for 93 goals, 87 assists, and 180 pts. Historic.
Its crazy when they are lauding two high end players that have 20 goals between then when Leon just scored his 17th – my goodness Leon.
I don’t completely get the Jets love. They are a dirtier team than Boston and maybe even the Flames. They are approaching Kessler era Ducks
Big save Stuey!
Bouch: That is one of those shots that Tip considers turnovers.
A rare poor choice to shoot.
Stanely has been cross checking guys all night.
He’s not the only one.
last post season demonstrated how legal cross-checking is. It’s terrible.
Shocked.
Good goal! Drai with a pair on the PP.
I’m surprised they over-turned it but happy.
This colour guy is just a bit biased.
If nothing else, how about the crackdown on crosschecking in front of the net?
That’s chinsy.
Crosscheck into the goalie, no goal… Wow.
Really glad Tippett is challenging.
Leon has 16…… maybe.
Don’t often see Leon miss from that spot.
Would have liked to see some pushback on Stanley after that hit, ’twas dirty.
Glad to see Leon make ammends on his own.
They pissed off 29.
All bets are off now…
Game management to the rescue!
Drai with the PP snipe to break the goose egg.
Stanley should try playing the puck.
Boom, didn’t miss that one – Leon has 15 and the Oilers have almost two full minutes of PP time left.
Goodness, Leon buries that 98 times out of 100….. geez.
Nuge has also had two glorious chances he hasn’t scored on.
Bouch is going to be so savy for so long.
Oilers need a Reaves to go up against this Jets team, they’re bullying them around. Jets have the psychological advantage by a few ice rinks currently, this wouldn’t happen with Maroon around.
Can takes a 1-0 lead!!!!!
After Two:
4-0 Winnipeg (3-0 in the second)
26-20 Winnipeg shots (14-11 Winnipeg in the second)
31-30 Edmonton Corsi five on five (14-13 Edmonton in the second)
==
Less than ideal for Edmonton in the second, giving up a goal on the PK and now down 3-0 at five-on-five. Jets are a better five-on-five team, and Edmonton hasn’t been sharp for much of the game.
I’m not sure why Tippett moved Leon to the top line, McDavid’s unit has been good tonight with Hyman and Puljujarvi. Derek Ryan looks overwhelmed, I have liked JP and Yamamoto.
Best pairing? Nurse-Barrie to my eye.
Are we really blaming Mikko for goals 3 and 4?
Derek Ryan having a whale of a game…
Worse than Sheahan?
Duncan Keith has been terrible.
Agreed. So many bad passes and why is he pinching so much when he can’t even skate back.