Oilers 2021-22 Game 16: Jets at Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers were 9-1-0 in the first 10 games of the 2021-22 season, and are 2-3-0 in the second set of 10 games. This is the first time this year the team is under the gun and it will be fun to see how Edmonton responds.

Dave Tippett has some options, he can switch out Kailer Yamamoto for Zack Kassian on the No. 2 line, effectively creating a third “energy” line with Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod and Yamamoto.

He could also put Duncan Keith with Tyson Barrie, the duo has played just 10 minutes together but has a 8-3 shot share and an expected goal share of 76 percent according to Natural Stat Trick. Clearly not enough sample, but why not run it for a game and get that TOI total up to 25 for the season? The current lineup is stale, maybe a tweak would help.

I think the Jets win this one. If Paul Maurice can get his troops to play Strategema ruthlessly, and the referees aren’t calling penalties, and the Oilers don’t play through it, and Connor Hellebuyck outplays Edmonton’s goalie, well, I like the Jets chances this evening.

If Winnipeg scores the first goal, I’d have a backup plan. Edmonton’s errant passes, loose coverage and inability to outscore five-on-five are bad habits that have crept back into the game. This is not a disaster, 2-3-0 road trips are commonplace even among good teams, but there isn’t much practice time in the days to come and attention to detail is tough to get back once it’s gone. I suspect a loss tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

• Lowetide: Three auditioning Oilers who are finding their groove and hope to find their place
• Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?
• DNB and Max Bultman: How Hockey Hall of Famer Ken Holland helped create ‘the Harvard of hockey management’
• Lowetide: How good is Matvey Petrov and is he on an NHL trajectory?
• Lowetide: Will Ken Holland make an early-season trade to bolster the Oilers?
• New DNB: Oilers lament Connor McDavid not drawing penalties
• New Jonathan Willis: How the Decade of Darkness did — and didn’t — set up the current success
• New Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers put together an effective third line?
• DNB: Oilers’ Stuart Skinner on the right track after second NHL start
• DNB: What I believe and what I know about the Oilers after 10 games
• Lowetide: How close to balanced are the 2021-22 Oilers?
• DNB: Connor McDavid’s otherworldly goal
• DNB: Kevin Lowe Q&A
• Lowetide: Is this Connor McDavid’s peak season, and how good could it be?
• Lowetide: Who is the Oilers’ top prospect now that Evan Bouchard has graduated?
• DNB: Oilers’ Tyson Barrie says what needs to be said as NHL faces reckoning
• Lowetide: Did Oilers general manager Ken Holland win the offseason?
• DNB: The Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci pair have helped to overcome a notable loss
• Jonathan Willis: Seven Oilers surprises so far in 2021-22

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

• At home to: SEA, NAS, NYR (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
• On the road to: DET, BOS, BUF, STL, WPG (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 2-3-0)
• At home to: WPG, CHI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: DAL, ARI, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
• Actual November results: 5-3-0, 10 points in eight games
• Oilers in 2021-22: 11-4-0, 22 points in 15 games

All of a sudden these teams are playing well. Winnipeg is 7-1-2 in its last 10 games, and lots of things are working. Chicago has a four-game winning streak going, Dallas has won two in a row, Arizona is bad, and Vegas is 7-3-0 in the last 10. I have the Oilers going 3-2-0 in the next five games, made that prediction at the start of the month. Looks aggressive, based on coverage and passing.

OILERS BLUE AFTER 15 GAMES

I rarely post zone starts (or Corsi) because the thread becomes unreadable with rage, and I prefer the anger to be over whether Brendan Perlini should play with 97 or 29.

Anyway, Keith-Ceci and Slater Koekkoek get the tough assignments, and I honestly think Koekkoek is miscast here. He is big but not a shutdown defender. Barrie must have whiplash over the difference in usage from the top pair to the third pair.

OILERS SCOUTING

I’ve been thinking about writing a few notes on Edmonton’s scouting staff, and hope it lands properly with you. There’s always a danger in skimming over major gaffes and recognizing only the good.

So, with that in mind, I want to make two things clear at the start: The scouts don’t trade picks and sometimes a great strategy fails because scouting is not an exact science.

2011

The scouts found three NHL players, in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom and Tobias Rieder. All three played in over 350 games and two of them spent/are spending careers in feature roles. No extra credit for Nuge, he was a No. 1 overall, and there wasn’t a bad pick in the top four overall. Still, when gifted the top pick, a team still has to make it count and Nugent-Hopkins has been a fine player for a decade. This draft, in my opinion, was a strong one for Edmonton.

2012

One of the weakest drafts of the decade, Edmonton once again had the top pick and chose Nail Yakupov. It didn’t work out, but I believe he was the top player available at the time, or at least he was until a draft year injury derailed him and had a significant impact on his career. A referee encounter further damaged progress and things ended poorly, but the scouts made the right call. I believe that to be true. Edmonton grabbed two other counters (Jujhar Khaira, Erik Gustafsson) and nine years later the franchise has three men inside the top-50 in games played. Considering it was a poor draft overall, I think that’s a passing grade.

2013

Craig MacTavish did some innovative things in his two seasons as general manager, and the draft was an area where his intelligence and creativity benefitted the team. His unusual trade, sending one early second-round pick away for five picks in the top 115, was innovative and unsuccessful but worth the risk and worth acknowledging these years later. There was talent available, and Darnell Nurse has delivered 421 NHL games with many more to come, but the scouts couldn’t make those middle picks work and this draft was a brilliant mistake. Kudos for a smart risk all the same.

2014

I’ve thought about the 2014 draft more than any other and about the scouts on that weekend. As was the case in a few drafts over this decade, when the general manager trades a big hole in the second and third rounds, it’s difficult to expect two NHL players. On the other hand, getting Leon Draisaitl at No. 3 overall was a masterstroke that has echoed down the canyon and landed at the top of the NHL’s scoring race. What an exceptional moment for the scouts. Despite just one pick, I give this a thunderous passing grade, on a level with 2011.

2015

Connor McDavid is the No. 1 overall pick of a lifetime, no extra credit for the easiest pick in Oilers history. It’s the rest of the draft that gets the scouting department a strong passing grade. Left without several picks in the first, second and third round, the scouts delivered Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and John Marino and in doing so gave the organization exactly one half of an NHL defense in one fell swoop. A stunning coda after the McDavid pick.

2016

The 2016 draft is possibly the weakest for scouts in this decade, because the second and third-round picks (there were four in total) haven’t yet worked out. The team was lucky Jesse Puljujarvi fell to them, and lucky he re-signed with Edmonton, but the scouts got it right. We’re five years down the line, and despite a pulse from Markus Niemelainen and Filip Berglund, this draft cannot be considered a successful one. Too much didn’t happen in the second and third rounds.

2017

I never thought the day would ever come when the Oilers drafted a truly undersized skill forward, but in 2017 Kailer Yamamoto was Edmonton’s choice at No. 22. No matter how things turn out, and there’s doubt about how many NHL games and where he’ll play, I was so pleased to see the team take the last truly skilled man standing. Stuart Skinner and Dmitri Samorukov are both matriculating, so we can’t make a final call on this draft, but I would say there’s a chance this lands as a passing grade. Per 82 games, KY is scoring 16-22-38 and that leaves him a little vulnerable as a long-term solution at No. 2 RW.

2018

This draft looks like it’ll get a pass without much heavy thinking. Evan Bouchard is a quality player, even more impact to come when he gets power-play time. Ryan McLeod isn’t certain, but he’s closer the Skinner or any of the 2016 mid-round selections. One wonders if Olivier Rodrigue will emerge from a crowded pack of pro goalies, suspect he has as good a chance as any but he’s the youngest so may have to bid his time.

2019

Philip Broberg still has developing to do, but the young man looks good across several areas at this time. His skating is a dream, and he can beat opponents one-on-one with enough consistency to be considered a true skill. His coverage and quickness in decision-making is improving and he can close a gap in a heartbeat. Raphael Lavoie and Ilya Konovalov are off to poor starts in Bakersfield this season, both men will need to be far better in the second half (AHL players often blossom after Christmas) to be considered true NHL prospects.

2020

Dylan Holloway’s injury has cast a pall over the 2020 draft, Oilers fans are hoping for good news in the weeks to come. Holloway was the top forward prospect when injured. Carter Savoie is probably the No. 1 prospect now, he’s scoring at an amazing clip and perhaps more importantly reports have him as fit as he’s ever been and improving his overall play. Could be a draft steal. Tyler Tullio, Maxim Berezkin and Jeremias Lindewall are progressing.

The scouts can’t control the number of picks retained each season, but from 2011 through 2020 I count several solid to excellent drafts and only one (2016) where the scouts didn’t deliver when owning a plethora of picks.

CONDORS LAST NIGHT

Broberg was the best Condors player on the ice by some margin, and the rest of the prospects (Lavoie, Berglund, Niemelainen) of note were good and bad. Samorukov seems to be reaching a point where the training camp injury and lack of preseason is no longer an issue, and Konovalov is not grabbing the AHL starting job in the days that Skinner is away. A recall option? Broberg is the standout, Niemelainen and Samorukov are additional options. Marody is the only forward worthy of a recall, and purchasing the contract of Brad Malone isn’t a terrible idea.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we go heavy Oilers and don’t stop till you get enough. Chris Johnston, TSN insider and columnist for the Toronto Star will step in at 10:20 and talk about Oilers shopping list and the Draisaitl-McDavid start. We’ll have another edition of Crossfire! (pew! pew!) at 10:40 and then get the Winnipeg side at 11 (guest TBA). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!