The Edmonton Oilers had a helluva rookie crop in Bakersfield during the 2019-20 season. Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Dmitri Samorukov and Stuart Skinner all spent extended time in the AHL, and all but Samorukov are playing important roles currently in the NHL.
In order to have three or four rookies emerge from one AHL crop, you need to throw a lot at the wall. That season the Condors had 10 rookies pushing, the outsiders (so far) being Dylan Wells, Vince Deslauriers, Beau Starrett, Jakub Stukel, Ryan Kuffner and Kiril Maksimov. There are some good players in there, and I know someone will say “he was never going to make it” and “the early picks made it, no surprise” but these entry-level years matter.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Philip Broberg’s first NHL game was as special as he’d hoped
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg is ready for his NHL audition
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto is still on the Oilers’ No. 2 line
- Lowetide: Three auditioning Oilers who are finding their groove and hope to find their place
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?
- DNB and Max Bultman: How Hockey Hall of Famer Ken Holland helped create ‘the Harvard of hockey management’
- Lowetide: How good is Matvey Petrov and is he on an NHL trajectory?
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland make an early-season trade to bolster the Oilers?
- DNB: Oilers lament Connor McDavid not drawing penalties
- Jonathan Willis: How the Decade of Darkness did — and didn’t — set up the current success
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers put together an effective third line?
- DNB: Oilers’ Stuart Skinner on the right track after second NHL start
- DNB: What I believe and what I know about the Oilers after 10 games
- Lowetide: How close to balanced are the 2021-22 Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s otherworldly goal
- DNB: Kevin Lowe Q&A
- Lowetide: Is this Connor McDavid’s peak season, and how good could it be?
- Lowetide: Who is the Oilers’ top prospect now that Evan Bouchard has graduated?
- DNB: Oilers’ Tyson Barrie says what needs to be said as NHL faces reckoning
- DNB: The Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci pair have helped to overcome a notable loss
- Jonathan Willis: Seven Oilers surprises so far in 2021-22
CURRENT CONDORS
The current Condors have airmailed three players to Edmonton already (McLeod, Skinner and Broberg) with Samorukov or Niemelainen candidates for recall later in the year.
By third year pro, young players should be pushing, and as you can see all three men in the year three pro aisle (it’s actually Skinner’s fourth but they get an extra year) are either in the NHL or pushing.
It’s the ‘who’s next?’ column that is a concern. Although players like G Ilya Konovalov, RD Filip Berglund and LD William Lagesson are matriculating, they are past their entry years.
The ‘second year pro’ is the current ‘desolation row’ with the exception of Niemelainen, who looks ready for an NHL look this season. Mike Kesselring and Phil Kemp are working their way up the depth chart, Rodrigue is battling Konovalov for the starting job and so far there are no winners, and Raphael Lavoie isn’t close to where he should be right now.
First year pro is basically Broberg, I’m still nonplussed over the Matej Blumel fiasco and would love to have seen Maxim Denezhkin sign and come over to Bakersfield. Russians want the NHL.
BUBBLING UNDER
Dylan Holloway is already signed and should be in Bakersfield early in the new year. All of Savoie, Tullio and Bourgault should turn pro next fall, and the Oilers should look into signing Russians Berezkin and Denezhkin over the offseason.
PROJECTED 2022-23 CONDORS
- Goalies: Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue
- Left Defense: Markus Niemelainen,
- Right Defense: Filip Berglund, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring
- Center: Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault
- Left Wing: Carter Savoie, Raphael Lavoie
- Right Wing: Tyler Tullio
Oilers should have four excellent forwards to add in 2022 (Holloway, Bourgault, Savoie and Tullio) but need more to throw against the wall.
Except.
Ken Holland’s 50-man list isn’t a big one. Is he saving those spots (seven available) for the spring and college signings?
Oilers signed two college men in the last signing season, Dylan Holloway and Mike Kesselring. In the months to come, perhaps Holland will sign Marc McLaughlin from Boston College or Brandon Scanlin from Nebraska-Omaha.
The alternative is signing some of these AHL contracts (James Hamblin, Graham McPhee, Vincent Desharnais) to NHL deals, but I for one like the idea of procuring minor-league talents who might emerge and earn NHL deals. Edmonton has done it in the past, with Mark Arcobello and Josh Currie, plus Charles Linglet for a very short time.
Either way, it’s obvious trading all of those draft picks has left the cupboards bare, especially at forward.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s going to be a busy day on the Lowdown, we get started at 10 on TSN1260. Ryan Holt, play-by-play broadcaster for the Bakersfield Condors will talk about all the successful recalls and about the prospects pushing from the AHL right now. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will pop by and talk to us about the Oilers weekend, the Flames, the Elks offseason and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Ethan Bear has tested positive for Covid – hope he recovers quickly and fully!
Knights lose in regulation (to the Blues who have recently lost to the Stars and Yotes).
Ducks lose in regulation.
Jets down to Pit with less than 5 to go.
Good stuff out of town, so far.
Nice to see Vegas lose.
Also nice of Nashville to do the Oilers a solid by beating the Ducks in regulation.
And the Ducks too.
Elks
I knew there was bad juju coming when it was mentioned Elizondo was a marine
Who cares. Sounds like the type that doesn’t work to me
Especially in Edmonton. No cred for that in the community.
Players couldn’t care less. Are you a good coach? For me?
Or is it boot camp 24/7 or I don’t trust anyone that isn’t fully trained?
Good on the board for taking care of business.
Dont screw up
Listening to Woodley on with Gregor earlier this afternoon and there is some good stuff there re: Skinner.
After his start last season in Ottawa where he got the win (8-5), apparently Skinner didn’t come out after thinking “yes, i’ve made, it”, etc. – he came through the game thinking (to paraphrase) “I’ve got stuff to work on).
Also, earlier in the year, I guess Mike Smith watching Skinner in practice was raving about how much he’s improved.
Good players probably don’t pat themselves on the back too quickly when raising themselves up into a higher level league.
Its more the sign of a second rate individual to praise themselves like you describe.
Skinner strikes me more and more(admitting this is my bias entering) as a first rate goalie, finding himself in an ideal situation(an up and coming team with goalie issues), who will quickly blossom into the Oilers starter.
Uber competitive Mike Smith might want to eat his words once Skinner KO’s him off of the starting goalie position.
Hoping Oil will serve up another heaping of unripened umeboshi to the fallen stars tomorrow night.
The highlight of Dallas’s 24th-placed season so far:
Not sure what is more exciting, watching Golden Girls reruns or Radek Faksa enticing a rookie into a solo glove drop.
-overheard from a seeing-stars fan
I was remiss in my earlier post about CHL prospects, forgetting about Max Wanner of the MJ Warriors.
Well, he’s scoreless with 4 assists in 18 games for the Friendly City.
Interestingly, leading MJ in d-man scoring is Denton Mateychuk, who’s eligible for the ’22 draft. Has 17 points in 18 games.
Wheeler has him ranked 28th:
https://theathletic.com/2887391/2021/11/03/nhl-draft-ranking-scott-wheelers-top-64-prospects-for-2022/
Pronman has him at 23:
https://theathletic.com/2902479/2021/10/25/top-23-prospects-for-the-2022-nhl-draft-shane-wright-leads-forward-heavy-group/
Could be in the range for the Oilers if they retain their 1st.
While we’re on the topic of “Let’s Look at Draft-Eligible Defensemen Who Play With Oilers Prospects, Even Though the Draft is More Than Seven Months Away”:
I give you Ty Nelson, who plays with Petrov and the North Bay Battalion. Undersized like Mateychuk, but a RHS.
Also leads his team in d-man scoring, with 16 points in 19 games.
Wheeler has him ranked 23rd (see above link). Pronman doesn’t have him listed in his top 23.
Mr Afaganis
The Oilers need forwards and goalies
They don’t need D
Particularly for forwards RS C
That could play wing and take right side faceoffs on their own line
I am understanding you.
For all we know, both players could be long gone by the time the Oilers–assuming the pick is kept–make their choice at #32 😀
I wouldn’t bat an eye if the Oilers went all F’s like last draft. Won’t happen, as I suspect they’ll take a goalie in the middle / later rounds.
That said, with Bouchard’s graduation, there’s no RD prospect that really inspires confidence. A prospect like Nelson (or reasonable facsimile thereof) would give the right side a definite boost.
I guess people have PTSD from Zegras/Broberg, but the team very clearly has better forward than defense prospects now that Broberg is in the NHL.
I assume that means Pick The Swedish Defenseman? 😀
Haha, it’s not the worst strategy. The Oilers were only without for 12 games.
Don’t forget about Wanner. Joaquin Phoenix’ character, Emperor Commodus, underestimated another Maximus to his own peril. That was something to Crowe about.
Paying draft picks & prospects to acquire a player is one thing …
Paying another team to retain salary or undergo financial gymnastics is an additional tax on doing business. The Oilers’ financial inflexibility suggests his isn’t a convenient year for a big-money addition.
Besides, we seem to be getting good value out of the “prospects”
Ryan McLeod CF% 48.1 FO% 52.7 Not bad.
50 GF% and 41.34 xGF%.
Derek Ryan
CF% 48.5
xGF% 46.5
FO% 57.4
…
GF% 18.8
This isn’t a Derek Ryan > Ryan McLeod post, just hopeful for a recovery from D. Ryan since there’s a lot to like there.
I believe Ryan is also getting stomped by the PDO pony.
PDO of 870…
Yup, worst in the NHL by 30 points.
So far this season, Tyler Benson has done more to reinvent his game than Brendon Perlini has.
Tyler Benson is noticeably faster, but the aggressiveness has been there for at least the past 2 years.
Perlini is hitting, not something that he did at any point until about 2 or 3 weeks ago…. Perlini has weapons, but he needs an effective NHL play-driver on his line to be productive.
Here’s a 4th line configuration idea (yes the LHS Perlini plays both wings):
Benson-Ryan-Perlini
Tip has got to quit with the blender for a while and give guys who show some chemistry a bit of time together. The pair that seems most responsible to me is Scevior and Benson so far and the numbers on natural stat trick bear that out. There is no way Scevior should be taken out – his result are miles better than any other 4th line player – and his numbers with Benson are OK. I’d run Benson-Ryan-Scevior when all are healthy.
Benson (passer) Scevior(responsible center) Perlini (off-wing shooter) might be worth a run. The line has decent size and Benson might get Perlini the puck in shooting position, but overall, I don’t see how Perlini fits the 4th line job description on this team. He’s top 6 injury insurance that we don’t really need with Kass and Fog on the 3rd line.
You start by saying to stop the blender but then suggest a deployment that has never been used…. more blending, no?
I think Tip wants to keep all of the 14 forwards engaged and “up and running.
OP you are just being argumentative for the sake of it. You know I meant stop blending guys who are producing results – and by eye and numbers – this is Benson-Scevior. The 3rd wheel is probably Ryan – maybe Shore when he’s healthy. You switch out those guys to find chemistry with Benson-Scievior. Perlini and Turris are weak defensively and ill-suited to the 4th line.
No, I’m not. You propose the coach stop blending and that Perlini should not be on the 4th line and then you propose a new threesome which hasn’t been tried yet that includes Perlini on the 4th line.
I was just pointing out that it doesn’t seem to jive.
The blender takes guys who are playing well (like Scevior and Benson) out of the lineup in favor of change for change sake. The 3rd piece for the bottom line is unknown at this point (might not even be on the team right now) but you can at least keep the guys who are producing (or at least not bleeding) in the lineup. That’s the point but you have some sort of fixation with my off-the-cuff idea about Perlini on RW. Odd behavior.
Mr Perlini is not going to be a top 6
He needs to get some snarl like Benson is
And defensive awareness and pk ability
Its up to him to use that big fast frame and skill, which isn’t top 6 skill or he’d already be there
The Oilers have 5 drafted developing forwards with 30NHLE or more, while they have 5 forwards on the big squad all under 25.
Seems bare cupboards mean different things in different places.
How many players does a contending team realistically break in year over year. 1-3 seems like a home run.
Holloway isn’t even being taken into account and I’m most bullish on him.
Remember when the discussion was who should be left unprotected for the expansion draft? Benson, Lagesson, Kass, Skinner.
Thank you Adam Larsson.
Oilers Propsects at World Juniors:
Canada:
Bourgault – not a lock but likely (probably a depth role)
Savoie – unlikely (having a great season but had his poor outings when being scouted by Team Canada a few weekends back)
—————-
Russia
Petrov – One would think he’s a lock if “politics” don’t prohibit it.
—————
Germany
Munzenburger – Lock
————–
Sweeden
Lindewall – unlikely
——————
Am I missing anyone that has a remote shot (Tulio was left off consciously)?
I’m not really sure who Andrew Walker is but he’s from Bodog and has 18K followers so I doubt he tweets made up stuff:
Andrew Walker
@AWalksOfficial
· 1h
Hearing some rumblings that #Oilers Mike Smith injury is quite bad. Surgery bad. Stuart Skinner may be a pretty important guy for Edmonton going forward.
———————————
I see quite a bit of talk about “seeing this coming” due to his age. Sure, maybe the injury is because he’s 39, maybe the injury is more serious because he’s 39 or he’s not able to recover as well due to his age.
Of course, maybe his age has nothing to do with the injury and it would be exactly the same if he was 32 or 25. We don’t know. Players get injured at all ages.
Either way, it doesn’t really matter except it seems like just another reason to throw some vitriol at Holland.
What does matter, is that, for now, we are running with Skinner and Koskinen and, so far, so good – in fact, so far its been better than “so good” – some great information on Skinner is being gained.
Imagine if he can keep this up playing 40-60% of the games…….
Thanks, you really keep your ear to the ground for all things Oilers.
GM’s unfortunately can smell blood. The price for a goalie for Ken Holland just went up if this is true.
Why? Smith has been out since October 19 and the Oilers are 11-4-0 in his absence. Just as Koskinen’s performance started to tail off Skinner stepped up and blew away a top-3 goalie.
The Oilers aren’t any more desperate (read: not at all desperate) than they were yesterday.
Not at this particular moment, no.
If Smith is out for the season, then we have Skinner and Koskinen.
Maybe there’s an unlikely scenario (which would be awesome), that Skinner goes full Binnington for the rest of the season and the playoffs.
Otherwise, we’ll be at the deadline with Kosko and a rookie.
GM’s, in my opinion, seem to understand the concept of leverage. I think losing Mike Smith for the season would markedly deleverage us in trade negotiations for a goalie at the deadline. That’s just my opinion. How much of an impact it might ultimately have is subject to debate.
We saw an example this when Poile acquired Kyle Turris. Everyone knew that Nashville’s window was closing, Poile was desperate for a 2nd line centre, and he paid accordingly.
Part of it is also human nature.
We’re always willing to pay more for something when we have an imminent need.
That could explain the Keith trade, for example.
Or let’s say the wife is complaining about your kitchen fridge. It’s out of style, banged up, too small, too old, the ice dispenser doesn’t work or whatever.
So most people start shopping around, maybe wait for an appliance sale, etc.
Now, it’s Saturday and your fridge died. The repairman stops by and tells you it’s going to be $2000 to fix. Not worth it. Now you have no fridge.
In this situation, if you’re like most of us, the game has changed. You’re now likely pay whatever it costs to have a new fridge in your kitchen without being too picky, provided that it can be delivered as soon as yesterday.
Except we have 3 fridges. Not a big deal if 1 goes down.
At the start of the season, LT didn’t think that Holland would enter the playoffs without adding a goalie.
If Holland wasn’t likely to be comfortable with the Smith/Koskinen tandem for the playoffs, I think it’s even far less likely that we’ll see a Skinner/Koskinen tandem–unless Skinner goes full Binnington on us.
Can you explain why Ken didn’t use any of his leverage when EDM was the only possible landing spot for Keith?
I think it might have got something to do with Holland not wanting Keith to feel like he’s a semi-worthless commodity.
Unlike the deplorable Oilers fans, Holland realised that Keith is a proud old warrior. A warrior unlike Andrew Ference in that he actually holds serious value to the team, cap hit be damned.
Sometimes you have to appear to take a hit in life in order to truly move forward. Life isn’t always about extracting maximum value everywhere you go. No idea if this is really true, but it certainly appears that way.
We didn’t appear to take a hit. We actually took a hit. wasn’t a fan of the deal. Still not. But I liked his last game and some of his other play have had veteran savvy.
The fridge analogy needs work. I mean, does one of your other fridges run on banned refrigerant? Is one an older model and making a knocking noise? It works for the moment, but you can’t get spares for it? Does one not cool evenly?
Analogies are like a can of worms – always take the red one on a wet Sunday in July.
That seems quite far fetched on all accounts.
No, I have no explanation for that. We can hope that Keith retires at the end of this season and gifts us with the bonus can hit from the negative cap recapture on his contract though.
Keith is still an effective player. Why the hell would he retire?
Let’s just hope that Santa is bringing us all a shiny new bike for Christmas.
Keith makes $1.5M next season – he may decide that he’d prefer to not keep up the intense training regimen on the off-season and go through the gruel of an 82 games season and may think its time to relax and spend more time with his family, watch his some play hockey, etc.
I’m guessing he’ll still want to play but him deciding to pack it in as he approaches 40 is not an unreasonable thought.
He was quoted as wanting to play until his mid 40s on HNIC
Yup – as I said, its unlikely that he retires.
At the same time, perhaps he comes through the season, and the rigours of a full 82-game season with the travel the Western Canadian teams have to endure and his body/mind isn’t where they usually are at the end of the season.
It could happen – unlikely but it could.
In that same interview, he also said he loves that his son is now old enough to appreciate watchin his Dad play and loves doing so. That seems pretty motivating as well as long as Keith’s level of play is good enough to satisfy his own standards.
And when he gets offered one year deals for $1.5m will he be just as willing? Guess it depends on how flush he is and how much he needs the money
He’s making $2.1M this season and will make $1.5M next season if he plays for the Oilers.
The rest of his cap his was banked many years ago.
He will probably play next year if he can smell a chance at Stanley
I haven’t stated anything other than he’s likely to play next season.
Explain how staying in Chicago was not an option/possibility for Keith? Based on all public evidence, Keith asked for a trade not demanded one. His relationship with Bowman and the Hawks would have likely been such that Bowman could have told Keith, if I can’t get fair value for you, I won’t trade you.
Its not quite that simple as Bowman was looking to move Keith for his own benefit, for the cap space which was used for the Jones trade and sign.
“Value” for Bowman would have been not having to pay to retain, in my opinion.
I am happy to have Duncan Keith on the team but there there is no argument that he’s value for a $5.5M cap hit (nor was there an argument that he would be), Well, at least not an argument that I can see, clearly Ken Holland felt/feels differently.
I fully understand that retaining or not retaining is part of the value equation on both sides and never said or implied otherwise. And Holland pointed out that Bowman would have retained if Holland would have given up better assets than Jones and a third (or a second – which will be well worth it if triggered) So retaining was a consideration, but Holland chose to give up the lesser player and assets and take on the whole salary rather than giving up a better player or two. Despite what many say, the success or failure of this trade has not yet been determined.
Respectfully disagree. I like Keith, he’s better than I thought he would be and has always been a favourite. That was an overpay.
I am fine with the belief that it was probably an overpay and I lean that way myself, but none of us were in those discussions and none of is is certain about the future.
The trade was an abject failure in asset management at the time it was made. Nothing will ever change this, even if Keith wins the Norris. Holland had all the leverage and chose to give up assets for a player who had negative value (big contract, old, and wanted to play for a specific subset of teams). Every other team that trades away this type of player has to give up assets/retain salary. E.g. Fleury and Marleau.
Who cares what Bowman wanted or the discussions in the room? If Holland thought the Oilers needed specifically 38-year-old Duncan Keith to be successful this season then he should not be GM. Walk away from the trade. There were plenty of other deals to be made this summer. E.g. Schmidt and Dillon.
“Even if Keith wins the Norris”. That’s the ridiculous hyperbole that is just nauseating and indicates people aren’t willing to have rationale discussions about this. We’ll never know what Holland could have done for his second pair LD (It sure wasn’t going to be Jones) if he’d walked away. But it is just nonsense to even say that if Keith plays second pair minutes and the Oilers get to the Stanley Cup final, that in hindsight, Holland should have walked away. His 3 options seemed to be walk away, give what he did, or give more (eg. Bear, Samorukov and possibly more) to get salary retainage. If Keith contributes meaningfully to the Oilers playoff success this year or next, I for one will be glad he made the move.
I think trades should be evaluated at the time they are made. What was the value of the assets at the time of the trade. If Keith plays great for two years and wins the Norris I will be very happy. It does not change the fact that trading material assets for a 38-year-old dman is very risk with very little upside (i.e. it is very unlikely Keith is going to get better and very likely his play erodes).
There may be some different thinking on your part if the cap situation is causal to the loss of one of JP or Yamamoto next year.
I agree with pretty much everything in this post and am responding solely to add that I do think Holland was specific that he needed Duncan Keith – not just a good veteran left d-man with some playoff experience and success but “Duncan Keith”, key cog in a multiple championships including the Conn Smyth.
I’m surprised that you don’t understand that the cap hit attached to a player is a material factor in the value of a player.
Cap space itself is a huge assets.
At $5.5M times 2, the vast majority think that Keith had negative value and that teams would not take the player with the contract for free (obviously Holland was not of that opinion).
Of course, the acquisition cost of a player goes up if the disposing team retains cap/salary but, in this case, most would think that the Hawks, retaining, say $2.5M and Keith being traded at $3M would simply take away the negative value and likely give him a small amount of trade value – say Caleb Jones.
I understand the “price would go up” if salary was retained but the starting price, in my opinion, should have been in negative territory, given the $5.5M X 2 cap hit.
I am happy to have Keith on this team but, for me, he doesn’t provide $5.5M worth of value.
I think he does for Holland and probably half of that is due to the intangibles of being a key cog in a multi-Stanley cup winner a decade ago.
I value that intangible but not near at the value Holland clearly put on it.
Thanks, but I understand cap value just fine. I even said the trade was probably an overpay. I also doubt Chicago believed he was worthless and that they would ever have given him away for free. He played the most minutes on their team last season. Keith tapered off the last 15-20 games after the team was out of contention, but he was even 5 on 5 the first 2/3 of the season. Bowman did not have to trade Keith. Holland did not have the leverage people keep saying he had.
Also, Seattle got 38 year old Mark Giordano and his 1 year times 6.75 million for free when there were other viable players available from the Calgary roster. And he is playing the same minutes for Seattle that Keith is playing for the Oilers.
Sorry, when you posted “I full understand…..”, I read that as “I don’t understand” – not sure why.
Apologies.
There was also the extra spot Chicago had to protect re the expansion
They had the deal for Jones done in principle but in order to sign him long term they needed Keith off the books.
Keith wanted to go to Western Canada, CHI wanted him off the books.
I get what you’re saying leverage wise, but really the cost is going to be all down to who the Oilers were to go after (if they go after anyone). We keep hearing MAF is an option – well, he’s 37 and on an expiring contract. Will he cost the first? Likely. Is it worth paying for a rental? Let’s say yes for the sake of argument, and also assume that MAF wants to come here.
Are Chicago likely to get offered more for MAF? No. Are they lacking in a first round pick? Yes. Therefore the Oilers also have leverage regardless of whether or not they have an injured Mike Smith.
Turris – I know he went rapidly downhill in Nashville – was kind of the prized asset that season wasn’t he? He’d just came off a fairly strong playoff year for Ottawa (4-6-10 in 19 games) following on from the reg season where he’d scored 27-28-55 in 78 games. It was a 3 way trade also involving the Avs. Turris went to Nashville; Kamenev (now in KHL), Girard and the 2018 second went to Colorado; Duchene went to Ottawa.
Going down the rabbit hole, Nashville’s second round pick that went to Colorado as part of that deal ended up with Pittsburgh also by way of Ottawa. Colorado had traded it to the Sens for their 3rd and 5th round picks. Fun times. Pittsburgh selected Filip Hallander (not made it to the NHL yet by the looks of it). Colorado selected Justus Annunen at 64 (he of Karpat – currently rocking a sub 0.900 Sv% in the AHL), and Danila Zhuravlyov – Def, currently playing for AK Bars in the KHL(3 assists in 28 games this year).
Girard looks like he was the best part of that deal by miles but I can see why Nashville paid what they paid. Duchene and Turris weren’t exactly seen as chopped liver at the time was the point I was trying to make, so all involved probably paid what was considered fair price at the time. I’m not sure Nashville overpaid.
Anyhoo – hopefully Skinner can indeed to a Binnington and trading for a goalie can wait until draft time – and it’s a Koskinen replacement. As CJ Uzomah said about the Bengals this year: “Why not us?”. I’d love for us to manage to develop our own in house goalie solution, other teams seem to manage it.
Keep in mind that Turris was a rental when Poile traded for him. His contract was expiring.
Girard had 3 points in 5 NHL games and was on the Predators NHL roster when they had traded him. It’s easy for forget that.
Kaminev was a 2014 early 2nd round draft pick who had put up 51 points in 71 games in the AHL the season prior.
That’s not quite like trading McLeod and Broberg for a rental second line centre, but not too far off either.
I would bet that Fleury would gladly accept a trade to Edmonton and would be highly motivated to beat his former team in the playoffs.
Interesting, Rishaug just tweeted this (perhaps as a response):
“On Mike Smith, expectation is he may be back in early-mid December. Hasn’t required surgery to this point and as of now, I don’t believe it’s in the plans.”
Interesting tweet from Rishaug give, just a couple days ago, Tip said Smith was “week to week, at best” – the “at best” was telling, at least I interpreted it that way.
Thankyou – smells like a hip thingy (?labrum).
It’s hardly a setback for the Oilers since Skinner’s arrival – the LTIR $ on Smith could even come in handy
Just realized both of our active goalies have “skin” in their name.
And so they both have skin in the game.
Ha ha ha you certainly have a way with words, my friend.
I see some LTIR that we can use at the deadline.
I don’t think the cupboards are bare, so much as the cupboards are not ready. I get that your point is all about having volume, but I’d rather have a few high quality prospects like Bourgeault and Holloway than a big cupboard full of meh. But for this year yes, there isn’t much at forward you’d be comfortable recalling.
The only young player I would consider trading is Mcleod.
He has the lowest upside of the real prospects, and there is a chance that he has enough shine to bring back a better player today.
The ironic thing is that the bad teams with bad GMs might undervalue someone like Mcleod. Do you think Benning is going to trade for him?
Is there anyone you want on Arizona? Buffalo? Detroit?
I am skeptical that the teams that would want Mcleod have someone that would be a sufficient upgrade to make it worth it.
Picking up this idea, someone who might be a great guy to add is Radek Faksa. However:
1) this is from memory, his numbers this year are terrible. Has he lost a step, is their injury trouble?
2) Mcleod alone likely isn’t enough, so now you are trading for a question mark and probably have to add a first round pick. Yikes. If the first round pick is involved do you have to trade Mcleod?
3) There isn’t salary space, so you have to attach Kassian to the deal. Now this is win-wing for the Oilers, but again what is the cost to take on Kassian’s contract?
4) who plays RW with Faksa.
Anyway, Faksa is one guy who would be good to get. Someone else mentioned Jenner. I think the cost for either of those guys would be through the roof. I don’t see Columbus trading Jenner.
But if you are making a trade you have to aim at least that high, and then you can’t trade any prospect better than Mcleod.
I think he’d be a solid fit and would bring a valuable element to the team, but I don’t think we’d be acquiring him on the basis of any good performance from him the past year and change. If you’re trading for Faksa, it should be because you have a plan to address whatever it is you think is causing the problems he’s had lately. For example, there might be merit to bringing him in and giving him more offensive opportunities than he’s seeing now with better linemates than Comeau, Cogliano, and Raffl.
That being said, I see no reason why he should cost all that much given his performance. For what he’s done since getting his extension, his 3.25mil contract isn’t attractive. I’m also not sure I’d love moving McLeod for a guy with such question marks.
I think if you’re dangling McLeod you check in with New Jersey to see if there’s something of value to be had to reunite the McLeod clan.
Trade a player who over the past fortnight has showed signs of being an actual NHLer?
Upside is for suckers. See Lowe+MacT trading down in the 2003 draft to gather more “upside”.
I refused to get too worked up over the head coach’s 4th line deployment decisions.
Yes, I like the way Benson played over the last couple of games but he had just over 4 minutes and just over 5 minutes of ice in the two games (and in the first game he did take two penalties). Yes, I like the development of the “pest” but I’m not going to get too worked up over Perlini playing over him for a game.
If Derek Ryan is healthy, he should be back in the lineup – now fully rested as well. Yes, I know Sceviour was good on the PK that last couple of games and Ryan was struggling the last while but, for me, this small sample size does not make Sceviour a better 4C option of Ryan. Lets not forget, much or Ryan’s struggles were playing up the lineup at 3C. He’ll now be 4C. If he continues to struggle, then a further deployment change can me made.
Ryan is Yamamoto’s main PK partner.
If I’m honest, I’d like to see Sceviour at 4RW over Turris but, really, I’m not going to get too worked up about it.
Based on stats from this year the 4th line should include Sceviour. Sceviour has played well on the PK and we know how important special team success is to the outcome of Oiler games.
Note: Goal differential is not a great stat to use with individuals, however over a period of time it does show some indication whether the puck is in the right net more often than not.
Player: 5v5 TOI / 5v5 Goal Differential / SH TOI / SH Goal Differential
Sceviour: 57.6 / -1 / 11.2 / +1
Perlini: 79.9 / -3 / .2 / 0
Benson: 47.6 / -2 / 0 / 0
Turris: 103.3 / -4 / 0 / 0
Ryan: 144.9 / -10 / 31.1 / -3
Kyle Turris should not be anywhere but the press box. I would give Ryan one, and only one, game to show that he has it together, otherwise he joins Turris.
I think it’s Tippett’s job to find them all ice time.
I think he’s doing very well so far.
Tippett wants all these 4th line guys engaged, so we are going to continue to see him shuffle the 4th lines, so that guys don’t get stale.
That being said, I really don’t see why Turris is still taking up a roster spot … shootout wizardry aside, he simply adds nothing during regulation play.
Sceviour is just a solid 4th line guy … won’t hurt you at evens and is a very good PKer. He should play every night.
I agree in principle. Perhaps they want to keep Turris viable in order to dump him at the deadline.
If I’m honest, I’d like to see Sceviour at 4RW over Turris but, really, I’m not going to get too worked up about it.
—————————
You should be worked up – the 4th line has been a black hole that pretty much offsets Drai and McDavid’s offensive contributions at 5×5 and sewered our overall ES 5×5 results.
Ryan (3-13) 19%
The obvious – and I mean utterly obvious – combination is the keep Benson-Scevior-Turris until Ryan is ready and then run Benson-Ryan Scevior after he’s back. That would leave our defensively weakest 4th line forwards (Turris and Perlini) on the bench.
Pretty sure we’re all okay with you not getting too worked up about it.
If you’re shopping for players, which GM’s are the ‘easy marks?’
Are there any left?
https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2021/09/06/nhl-power-rankings-general-manager-ranking-tiers/
Nice list of GM’s, but not a very credible article. It has Stan Bowman as the GM of the Blackhawks still and the author wonders why he hasn’t been fired yet.
It was written before he resigned.
The article was published Sept 6th. The Blackhawks report didn’t come out until mid-October.
Dude, Sept 6, 2021(date on the article’s path) was only 2.5 months ago…
With a few notable exceptions, there aren’t really “easy mark” GM’s. Good GMs can make bad trades (see: Erat for Forsberg by David Poile among many others). The point is either finding a player in an unfavourable situation (Taylor Hall last year),
a team in an unfavourable position with a player forcing a move (Pronger, Eichel),
a team who desperately needs to hang onto their spot or keep their window open(Detroit on their playoff streak, the Pens and Capitals are here)
A rebuilding team (Arizona has been picked pretty clean at this point though)
A team who knows they won’t be able to afford/keep their UFAs (Not sure if there are any here right now)
A team that has shut down for the year since injuries/circumstance have hurt them too badly (Sabres last year, yet to be determined this year but maybe MTL).
Agreed, it’s not always easy to win a trade even with a weaker GM on the other side. It’s more about reading, anticipating, and reacting to the market itself. Still there’s mounting evidence that some NHL organizations are better able to this than others. The Avs and Sakic are famous for this ability.
Even Twitter fans saw the Devon Toews trade from a mile away yet Holland, well aware of Keflbom’s shoulder health, spent his two second rounders earlier on Athanasiou prior to this opportunity. Was he unaware of the Islanders cap situation? Did he not realize that Toews would be available and affordable (both in trade and contract)? Or did he simply not think Toews was a good target?
Having Toews anchor our second pairing would have been a huge addition, for the same cost as AA, and a lower cap hit than Keith.
It’s weird in a way. Poile and Wilson used to be the cream of the crop, but they’ve both sort of either made some bad mistakes, or just been pretty inactive while their respective cores aged out.
Last year, I marvelled endlessly here how Sakic operates. Two second rounders for Toews, the Graves and Burakovsky trades etc. People here have grown tired of my analysis of Sakic to the point that many think I’m actually an Avs fan. I’m not.
This year, I’m going to dig around at Bill Zito’s transaction history. He’s an interesting and fearless GM with the courage of his convictions on the trade market.
Sakic has Chris MacFarland as one of his AGMs and he’s been sharp on analytics for a long time.
They also hired Dawson Sprigings to be their Associate Director of Analytics & Lead Data Scientist.
Some may remember him as Don’t Tell Me About Heart on twitter and as a writer at Hockey Graphs.
The right staff can identify good players before they have enough results to catch the eye of someone perusing the NHL Guide and Record Book.
Holland seems to think that analytics guys (and gals) just print off the canned stats packs, so why hire more than one.
Yeah, you informed me last year that Sakic’s trade history took a sharp turn for the better after he hired Dawson.
The reality is that one GM is trying to get a player that fills a need. The GM that he is dealing with is trying to get the best value available for same! The situations determine the costs of same! As fans we don’t have the requisite info as to the thinking and or what lead up to the trades. It is unfair to judge the decisions given we really only have a part of the whole!
Awesome question! My experience has been the individual asking the question should look in the mirror! Arrogance has its own’s rewards!
see HH!
Look in the mirror? I’m not even sure an NHL front office would ever let me through security let alone hire me.
I was asking in hypothetical sense of where the Oilers could shop to win a trade or two.
Sakic is going to need some real playoff success in short order, he’s been running that brand for a near decade and no matter how shiny the toys look time is wearing out and the dull is starting to accumulate.
That’s true, but we don’t really have any vets that are difference makers that we can spare in trade which is what he would be looking for.
Even smart GM’s start doing foolish things when they’re spending to bolster their playoff chances. Maclellan’s a good GM, but he’s made a fair number of poor trades. Sakic has shopped at the Maclellan store multiple times.
Because of how Holland has set up the roster the only way a high end player comes in is if one goes out
Top 6 the Oilers need finishers. The only potential spot is Yamo’s. Hyman Nuge and JP are pretty set IMO
Trading away top prospects (the ones that have any value) will kill the team in a few years, you need productive ELCs when you’re top heavy to have deep quality
Or get lucky on cheap vets. I bet nothing big happens, I hope he doesn’t give up too many draft picks for nothing again
Really need them as LT pointed out. Cupboard at forwards is bare
I keep thinking we still have a need for some slight nasty in our lineup ( marchant, linesman or hunter)…not necessarily a coke machine but some talent with attitude…these kids are probably harder to find in the draft then one might think…always helpful in a playoff run…imo
We need a tough little prick that plays on the edge that can draw attention away from Connor and Leon. I’m liking Benson’s game I wish Tippett would play him more even powerplay time to get him off the schnide.
This fall Benson took a look at the line-up and Marchand’s stats from 2009/10 and 2010-11 and said to himself “maybe I need to be a dink – with skill”
Marchand: 2009/10 and 2010-11 GP 97 g21a21 pts/game .43 PIM 71 TOI/gp 13.34
This team is so fun to watch, unfortunately I have to agree with the critics. If we remain middling at 5×5, we are not going anywhere in the playoffs and last night we could not dominate the worst team in the league in the most important game state. We can outscore a lot of mistakes, but we have to get closer.
Coaching? Roster? Essentially every player on the team besides the first line and top paring (with Bouchard, not Barrie) are under water CF% 5×5. It’s not much better when adjusting for score either. So what order do we do things to fix this?
I’ll say:
1) Flush the fourth line and bottom pair (kids to the rescue?)
2) New coach
3) Rebalance the top of the roster
The Oilers played Arizona last night? Who knew?
Also missing our best defenseman… and still won the game in dominating fashion, albeit through some special teams.
The Hawks have a 33.9% 5×5 GF% to Arizona’s 38.5%. We are at 48.7%, while Winnipeg, Washington, Carolina, Calgary, and Florida are all over 60%.
Time to flush the entire roster and bring in some rookies and AHLers who can carry the team to a Cup….This team, with its incredible winning record is going nowhere.
But I think we did dominate the Hawks 5×5. What game were you watching?
The puck seemed to be in the Hawks end for most of the night. If the fancies are telling you different, then you need to find a different evaluation tool.
To be fair, the Hawks were awful, just awful. That game should not be used as a measuring stick.
Yeah but we are talking about the Oilers here. Oilers of old would have found a way to lose to Chicago still. At least they dominated a team they should have been able to which is a plus for the Oilers.
That’s fair, I don’t think Corsi gave a completely accurate picture yesterday, but if we want to go all the way we need to be ragdolling teams like that at 5×5.
To be fair again, teams tend to step off the gas when they’re up 4-0.
I would also like there to be an answer that shows the Oilers in a good light, but at 5×5 the flow of play was towards the Oilers throughout the first period. It was mostly the beginning of the second period, with the Oilers up 4-1 where the Oilers dominated possession. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20212022&game=20269
Yet they were up 4-0.
And yet – did you watch the first 5 minutes of the 2nd period?
Yeah, that was fun! But we didn’t score…
Bettman .500 Leaderboard
+9 EDMONTON
+8 CALGARY
+5 winnipeg, minnesota, ANAHEIM
+4 VEGAS
+3 colorado, st louis
+2 nashville
+1 LOS ANGELES
0 SAN JOSE, dallas
-4 chicago
-5 VANCOUVER
-7 SEATTLE
-9 arizona
Poor Arizona, it’s not even December.
Curious LT, are you hoping Carter Savoie finishes his 4 year scholarship at Denver University?
I think I am.
All things considered, looks like the type of player that could use the extra development time and could blossom at a slightly older age.
Looks like he’s blossoming now. If you can score goal-per-game at any level (lots of track left this year) then its definitely time to move up. I see Savoie in the AHL next year with perhaps a cup of coffee later in the season.
I thought we were always afraid of uni guys finishing their 4 years as it indicates they may go the free agency route?
Any drafted player can become a free agent fairly quickly if they don’t sign with the org that drafted them:
College players have until Aug after their senior year
European players have 4-5 years depending on age of draft
CHL drafted players have two years (they either become UFAs or go back to the draft depending on age)
The “college loophole” is generally for later drafted prospects who aren’t really worth of NHL contracts until they are close to being UFA eligible. For higher drafted prospects, like Holloway, sure, they could wait 3-4 years and become a UFA but they are generally offered pro contracts after their draft plus 1 years.
Savoie is a bit different as he’s “popped” and will likely be worth of an NHL ELC after this season. He could wait and play two more full seasons in the NCAA and become a free agent but chances are he’ll sign after year two if its available (even if he wasn’t an Alberta boy).
The four year loophole (ie. the Justin Schultz maneuver) only crops up when a player’s draft +1 season is in Jr A or the USHL, and he then goes to the NCAA. Such a player can become a UFA in the June after their junior year in college, not August after their senior year. It wouldn’t apply to Savoie.
If Savoie continues producing this season like he has to this point, I don’t imagine he’s back in college for his 3rd season.
The real question will be if he’ll sign an NHL contract this spring and burn the first year of his ELC or if he’ll sign an ATO with the Condors and finish the season in Bakersfield.
Thanks, in part, to Phil Collins and some random poster here, I will forever think, “Tu Tu Tullio” when I read Tyler Tullio’s name.
Both you’re welcome and I’m sorry? It was forever in my head as well and did not want to live that curse alone.
Your a bad bad man.
This is awesome.
All these people that you mentioned
Yes, I know them, they are quite lame
I had to rearrange their faces
And give them all another user name
Right now I can’t read too good, don’t send me no more comments, no
Not unless you post them from Desolation Row
The most important question right now as it relates to prospects is who has enough potential left to package up for the players this team needs to win Cups and isn’t good enough to be a very high likelihood of helping same in the immediate term.
This question gets under-asked in hockey circles but is vital. Hopefully there is an entire group of people in the organization working on this right now.
The question is easy. Who in this group are you willing to trade: Holloway, Broberg, 2022 first, Bourgault, Savoie, Petrov, Samorukov?
The answer is more difficult.
Everyone has a price. Everyone.
Holloway and Samorukov would be least likely from me at this point because of where they sit and what they do…though there’s an argument for Holloway depending on what the doctors tell you. That future is much less certain than previously.
Much better to have cashed in too many prospects and made good trades than to lose most of them for nothing but catch a late-bloomer.
The “risk-averse” side of this conversation carries the day too much in hockey and drives results lower.
Holloway’s injury means you’ll get less than 100 cents on the dollar for him, that’s a nonstarter for me. Of course, we should know a lot more about him by the time the deadline rolls around.
If Holland truly is in this for the long haul he should be very reticent to move any of Holloway, Broberg, Bourgault, Savoie or Petrov. That leaves all picks plus guys like Lavoie and Samorukov, neither of whom have much value at the moment but could as the deadline approaches. Tullio is another prospective trade bait.
You might want to include Samorukov in that list of players not to move at least until you test drive him in the NHL!
You believe this to be true but the many men that have willingly given their life for God and country would indicate otherwise! It is why we coined the word priceless!
Not just that group. I believe some money would also have to leave.
Savoie’s clearly off the table. I had intel this summer that he trained a lot harder and I had shared it here. He’s certainly getting awesome results from the hard work.
I would say Broberg is also someone we obviously can’t trade with our depleted leftorium.
Holloway is also close and will fill an immediate need for a cheap scoring depth whether at wing or at Centre. He can’t be traded. Until he returns from his scaphoid fracture, I don’t think he’s have a lot of trade value anyway with this specific type of injury.
That leaves Bourgault, Petrov, and Samorukov.
If you trade Bougault, do you end up in an Erat for Forsberg type situation? No thanks. I don’t see how you win a Bourgault trade.
For Samorukov, unfortunately, there isn’t much trade value for a non-first round pick d that hasn’t established themselves at the NHL level.
Petrov is trending very well clearly for a 6th round pick, but at this stage of his career, what could you possibly trade him for?
Basically, that’s the crux of the issue. Most of these players, we don’t want to trade and the other two won’t get you anything likely of value anyways.
What if you’re offered a young star for a combination of prospects/picks and the money works? You make the move every single time.
Simply saying no no no doesn’t make sense.
Also – upgrading via quantity for quality is on the table. If Broberg for instance is as good as people think he is – then Broberg and the 2022 first round pick should get you something pretty special – that something special is worth investigating.
MLB teams are way ahead of the curve vs the NHL on this. I hope execs are studying like crazy. This org isn’t here to run a farm team and supply the rest of the league with John Marinos without return.
Well, the first round pick is obviously on the table.
Sure, there’s always the possibility of an equation that makes sense.
You’d expect that Broberg and a 1st would be a lot of trade capital, but it’s hard to structure these types of trades both in terms of the cap and contracts.
i.e. Would you trade Broberg and a 1st for a star player with 2 or 3 years left on their contract (including this one).
Unfortunately also, we’d have to package Broberg and a 1st along with a bad contract or two which would diminish the trade value.
Definitely not. Myopic vision does not lead to Stanley Cups, but to deeper despair and life in the cellar. We do not want to be perennial cellar-dwellers. Do the work to build a team properly; do not gamble with the little gold that you have.
Take a look at two major differences in the sports. The first is the age of baseball players are signed and their readiness for the major leagues. Most important of all is the lack of salary cap.
It would be sheer insanity to trade Broberg. As the Oilers should know from experience, excellent young defensemen are very hard to come by. Broberg is a pillar to be built around. Avoid the thirst for instant gratification, and pay some attention to the longer view of things.
This is so wrong it is hard to find the words for it, but I will try.
It only works if you end up trading nothing for something. I imagine LMHF#1 is thinking about something like the Stone trade. But that is only great because they didn’t give up very much.
So in the end the advice is really, know how good your prospects are and then trade the mediocre ones early. But that is a specious argument, since if you had perfect knowledge everyone would agree.
In the particular situation the Oilers are in right now, Ryan is absolutely right. The prospects the Oilers have either have more real value than trade value (Holloway and Broberg) or they don’t have any real trade value (Samurukov) so what is the point.
And in any case, the Oilers can’t afford anymore big ticket players so this is a dumb conversation.
And if they could they should be trying to do the Devin Toews for two second round picks moves, not trading guys who are months from being real contributors.
I wouldn’t be trading any of the Oilers legitimate prospects, not for any price that they would return.
It’s about no risk vs actually taking risks. The approach of many around here who can’t think beyond “I have so much nice stuff and I’m gonna keep it” is the first and leads to no winning of anything.
Your last paragraph is completely non-sensical and you know it. Unless you think the GMs job is to attempt to never be wrong – which in any pursuit is a one way ticket to the bottom rather than the top.
Upgrading is always worth looking at. I’m almost terrified of what the reaction will be around here when this team wins something and afterwards hopefully lets go of some key parts in order to do it again rather than committing itself to old news. The shrieking will be deafening I’m sure.
The Oilers desparately need Broberg and that first round draft pick on ELC’s to make the cap work into the future.
Anybody good coming in would be impossible to fit under the cap, because the Oilers are in LTIR this year and next. And cannot accrue cap space in season.
Broberg is basically untouchable since Nurse and Broberg are the left D for ther rest of the McDraivid era in Edmonton.
The Oilers are likely in to LTIR next season but its not quite a certainty – Klefbom could return – it may not seem likely but we don’t know what we don’t know.
Imagine if Klefbom returns and Keith retries – it seems far fetched but one can dream about it.
Lavoie, Petrov and\or the 2022 first, IF … The Price Is Right!
#ComeOnDown
Especially for a younger cost controlled player.
#WindowOfOpportunity
A few games ago both Skinner and McLeod may have been used for trade but with young players improvement and rapidly changing team needs this gets to be a million dollar question! Both now may be the answer to separate team needs which would both be timely, cost effective and ideal! When deals are made they become easy to judge under 2020 hindsight! Very difficult decisions in real time!
Yeah, you can’t deplete your system of guys who can contribute in the next few years. You need to slot them onto the roster in place of the more expensive, sub replacement types that currently populate the 6 and 7D and a lot of the bottom 6.
You can trade for Fleury at the cost of cap space and assets or just run with Skinner. Not obvious which player is the better bet for the playoffs. Look at Binnington in his rookie year.
I think the answer is easier than one might think. If the return brings you an asset that helps bring home Stanley then you pull the trigger. For example, the 1st that Lowe traded to Minny for Roloson almost did that. If he wasn’t injured, the Oilers may have very well won that cup.
There is no asset that is guaranteed to bring you closer to winning the Cup though. Everything has risks attached. For instance, was Tampa justified in paying a 1st for Savard last deadline? IMO he’s done as a player and that was a massive overpay. BUT, they won the Cup, so it’s worth it, right? Not in my books, as there’s no evidence that they wouldn’t have won without him.
ArmchairGM for the win.
I would not want to trade any of them unless there is a very good deal to be made. If your aim is to build a team that will have a chance at the cup every year for several years, then you do not deplete your stock of prospects as a matter of course. I think the Holland approach of building and fixing incrementally is the way to build a perennial contender. The young prospects need to be kept and developed because they become the cost-effective replacements that allow one, when all goes well development-wise, to address the inevitable salary cap issues.
Short version – there are too many sucker GMs in the NHL for the Oilers not to be on the positive side of a Reinhart style trade.
Benning is running out of rope and is in the same division.
Stan Bowman is no longer employed and we already lost a trade to him. Bob Murray is on leave.
I guess there’s still Dorion.
https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/11/30/nhl-power-rankings-ranking-the-nhl-general-managers/
The correct answer is any 1st or 2nd round pick who hasn’t developed as hoped or is trending down. Think NHL GMs are smarter than that?
-Griffin Reinhart (1st & 2nd rounders ON DRAFT DAY). – 3 years later
-Colton Teubert (peak Dustin Penner) – years later
-Ryan O’Marra (Ryan Smyth) – 2 years later
-Jani Rita (Dick Tarnstrom) – 6 years later
-Gilbert Brule (Raffi Torres) – 3 years later
-Jeff Woywitka (Mike Comrie, then as part of a pkg for Pronger) -2 and 4 years later
-Joe Morrow (Brendan Morrow, then part of the Seguin pkg) – same year 2 years later)
so who does that leave us with?
-Broberg is trending up. Doesn’t qualify yet.
-Lavoie may still have a career, but definitely expendable and probably carries some value.
-Konovolov and Rodrigue. Goalies are tough to include here, but both would be tradable from our end. Not sure what kind of value they would have
-Bouchard. Trending up and a key part of the NHL team. Doesn’t qualify here.
-McLeod. If we’re going for it and can get a Boone Jenner or something, then yeah, but he has done anything but trend downward since draft day. Doesn’t qualify.
-Samurokov. Seems to have improved year over year, but he was drafted 5 years ago and while expendable in a trade, might not have the value he might have 2 years ago.
This is thoughtful and makes sense.
I find it hilarious how many others around here think you can simply sit and hang on to any and every half-way decent player and hope to accomplish anything. You won’t.
This will lead to you losing good players for nothing, and keeping bad players well past their expiry date. We do not have the ability to field a farm team resembling those of the 60s Canadiens…that’s not a thing any longer. You have to maximize the top of your professional 50 contract list.
I don’t see a single top end prospect in the Oilers pool who doesn’t fill a current or immanent hole in the roster.
Russell/KoeKoek/Keith out for Sammy, Broberg. If Barrie’s who we move to keep PJ or Yamo, up comes one of the righties from Bake.
If Oil lose PJ or Yamo, that opens the door to (healthy) Holloway, Savoie. Or, bottom six has room for offense right now.
I would sit on McLeod but can see the case for trading up for the playoff push. I’d be fine including in any package Lavoie/Benson/Marody if something’s out there.
Otherwise, for all of the above, it’s cheaper to elevate farm hands than it is to trade for roster players, non?
We are hurt in more ways than 1 when we don’t have 2nd and 3rd round picks like we have done a number of times over the last few years. Not just in terms of bare prospect pipelines to fill roster holes.
Lowetide has been talking about arrows for as long as this blog has existed, and it’s proven to be worth looking at prospect development in that manner. None of the prospects I listed required any sort of hindsight. All of them had been trending in the wrong direction for years when they were moved, and they were able to bring back real quality.
That’s not to say guys like Broberg and McLeod are untouchable. They’re just a greater risk and someone like Lavoie should still get us a terrific rental at the deadline.
I think back to our best haul ever* on deadline day 2006. What did we give up, exactly?
1.Rita and Cross for Tarnstrom.
Failed famous prospect and a body for the Pens #1D at the time. Rita had been heading the wrong way for ages.
2.Salmelainen for Spacek.
Second rounder who always looked like he was doing something thanks to his speed, but down arrows for sure. Spacek was exactly what you hope to add at the deadline.
3.Roloson for a 1st.
The 1st landed the Kings Lewis (who would later be traded with Patrick O’Sullivan 3 years after his draft for Pavol freaking Demitra if my point didn’t need any more making). Lewis would become a fine depth C for a long time but the years we got from Roloson were much more value to us.
All real players of quality, and everything we gave in return were high picks who would have been listed in the “down arrows” category for years on a blog like this.
*best deadline that immediately came to mind anyway.
I should also point out that Benson could very well be one of the pieces we move for this very reason.
Edit – Also, I forgot the Samsonov trade that deadline. They moved Stastny, Reasoner and a 2nd. The pick was the prize if I recall, and Reasoner was a throw-in to send an NHL player the other way (still hurts btw…Marty should’ve been a part of that cup run).
Very sad Marty didn’t have a spot on that train after all he’d been through.
Would’ve drastically outplayed Rem as well.
The second rounder was Lucic. Samsonov was an important part of the cup run. He was tied for 3rd in team scoring through the first 3 rounds. Unlikely Reasoner would have done as much to help the Oilers beat Detroit, San Jose and Anahiem.
Thanks for outlining the future LT. I find it so very encouraging (at last) that the Oilers have tangible assets coming down the pipeline that are going to perform and challenge to make the big club.
Kudos to the amateur scouts on those recommendations and eventual picks. I still hold out hope for Lavoie.
I was talking to my brother about this last night. Looking at the team with all question marks, I would say there are maybe 6 holes on the team… but the difference between past years and this year is that it looks like the team might already have an answer for each one on the team already.
2RW: Yamamoto
3RW: Kassian
3C: Mcleod
2/3LD: Keith/Broberg
1G: Skinner/Smith/Koskinen
4LW: Benson
The Oilers could comfortably move out Turris ($1.6M) and Russel ($1.25M). Koskinen ($4.5M), Kassian ($3.2M) and Ryan ($1.25M) could all realistically be moved for varying levels of pain, and would need replacements.
My preferred course is to hold on for a few months, give everyone 20-30 games up to around the Olympic break to see if the players can handle their assignments, and then add to the lineup around that point in case there are any players who you want to push down. I think you have enough ammunition to get one good rental. Maybe two if you’re willing to add quite a bit to a Koskinen or Kassian trade. At this point I am thinking about a new LD since it seems to be our weakest spot in case Nurse misses any time, but Broberg and Sammy might be the answer their yet.
Wow, that’s almost 12 million for the five players you’ve mentioned. I think a lot of things would have to go right in order for all five to get moved. Given Holland and Tippet’s propensity for sticking with the vets they know, I’d be curious to see who actually gets sent packing.
Might be a very unpopular opinion but I think a guy like Kassian is needed for the playoffs. Especially against the western conference and certain opponents who take liberties with McDavid et al.
Let the (-) button fly!
I actually agree, I think Kassian ( if he shows up) is a very valuable player, but its all about opportunity cost. It would depend on who’s available and what the cost is to acquire them, and if that player is better than Kassian/Koskinen/Turris etc…
Kassian finds himself 9n Draisaitls line in yhe playoffs and earns his money then
After this weekend’s CHL action:
The Bourg has been slumping lately–only 1 point in his last three games–and has fallen into a tie for 4th in Q scoring (18-16-15-31), but only 3 points back of the lead. Still tied for 1st in goals.
Petrov (19-15-12-27) is in a three-way tie for 7th in OHL scoring, six points behind first. Tied for 2nd in goals.
Tullio (17-6-20-26) sits alone in 10th in the O. Tied for 2nd in assists.
Jake Chiasson is still injured and has yet to play this season.
Meanwhile, Savoie’s draft-eligible younger brother Matthew is leading the Dub in scoring (20-11-21-32) on a Winnipeg team that’s an absurd 19-1 on the season.
Interesting that 3 of the Oilers 4 best performing forward prospects appear to be elite goal scorers. There is certainly room on the Oilers roster for such skills.
I was thinking about the Bourg’s excellent start to the season just prior to this slump and how a goal and an assist per game suggests he might be too good for the league.
Then I remembered that is what Leon is doing at the NHL level. Absolutely incredible.
Like many was wondering where the Oilers players were going to be coming from…being an Oilers fan had seen 15 seasons of abject incompetence to blot out 80 percent of hopes to develop anyone outside of the top ten of round 0ne.
Now Ken Holland has got a team that’s nearly leading the west and considered an absolute Cup consideration by anyone out of the Flames/Canucks We’re totally galled by McDavid Society.
McLeod looks like a really good prospect. Really good, as in sticking with the team.
And his last goal screams: “I play with McDavid” – something rarely seen outside elite teams.
Like he thinks its still preseason.
The Oilers aren’t really “nearly” leading the west, they are leading the west, unless they get zero points in the two games the flames have in had which, given their history of accumulating points this season, is not likely (although possible).
McLeod’s progression from camp/exhibition/first couple games to his play upon recall has been marked and is heartening.
Methinks you are getting riled by my anti-pedantic manner.
Please check todays NHL standings and you will be enlightened to discover those red Devils from Highway 2 leading the Conference.
I don’t want it to be true anymore than anyone else, but as of November 22 its Calgary who lead the West.
I even predicted that the Falames* have about 4-5 games left before they start to collapse(I could correct that typo, but why bother).
Who is getting “riled”?
Yes, I understand the flames lead the division/conference via straight points – was just noting that, to this point, the flames have been inferior in accumulating points in the games they’ve played to the Oilers.
Regardless, the fact is that as we enjoy our friendly conversation the Flames lead the Conference.
Regardless, the fact is that as we enjoy our friendly conversation, the Oilers lead the conference in points percentage which leads to the likelihood they will lead via points when the games even out.
Both posts contain facts.
Once Blumel is ready to sign in the NHL, I think the Oilers may remain at the top of his list and presume Holland will be in contact.
With the graduation of Bourgault, Petrov and Savoie (presumably) to pro hockey next season, the Condors’ forward ranks should be a bit younger and dynamic.
Here is hoping that Petrov has a quicker/better transition that the likes of Maksimov (a lower drafted prospect who scored alot of goals in his draft plus 1 in the OHL).
Problem being, if he’s worth signing there will be competition for him. Blumel was worth signing imo. Missed opportunity.
Can’t miss an opportunity that wasn’t there. If the player didn’t want to sign and NHL ELC, he can’t be forced to.
He has had the ability to sign with 32 NHL teams and hasn’t done so – that is a tell, at least for me.
It will be fascinating to see who he signs with, when he does, assuming he does.
I left a few hours ago after LTs comment and said to myself “I wonder if OP can let this be the last word”. Guess not!
You’ve made your position clear on the topic but LT, myself and others believe there’s something rotten in Denmark.