The Edmonton Oilers begin the final road trip of November just shy of 50 percent in even-strength goals (42-44, 49 percent) and 24-6 (80 percent) on special teams. Since getting calls on the road can sometimes be tricky, I thought we might drill down a little on the team’s even-strength performances by line, using centers as proxy.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
- DNB: Philip Broberg’s first NHL game was as special as he’d hoped
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg is ready for his NHL audition
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto is still on the Oilers’ No. 2 line
- Lowetide: Three auditioning Oilers who are finding their groove and hope to find their place
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?
- DNB and Max Bultman: How Hockey Hall of Famer Ken Holland helped create ‘the Harvard of hockey management’
- Lowetide: How good is Matvey Petrov and is he on an NHL trajectory?
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland make an early-season trade to bolster the Oilers?
- DNB: Oilers lament Connor McDavid not drawing penalties
- Jonathan Willis: How the Decade of Darkness did — and didn’t — set up the current success
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers put together an effective third line?
- DNB: Oilers’ Stuart Skinner on the right track after second NHL start
- DNB: What I believe and what I know about the Oilers after 10 games
- Lowetide: How close to balanced are the 2021-22 Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s otherworldly goal
- DNB: Kevin Lowe Q&A
- Lowetide: Is this Connor McDavid’s peak season, and how good could it be?
- Lowetide: Who is the Oilers’ top prospect now that Evan Bouchard has graduated?
- DNB: Oilers’ Tyson Barrie says what needs to be said as NHL faces reckoning
- DNB: The Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci pair have helped to overcome a notable loss
- Jonathan Willis: Seven Oilers surprises so far in 2021-22
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: SEA, NAS, NYR (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, BOS, BUF, STL, WPG (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 2-3-0)
- At home to: WPG, CHI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: DAL, ARI, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- Actual November results: 7-3-0, 14 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 13-4-0, 26 points in 17 games
My projections had the Oilers picking up 16 points this month, so a win tonight covers the bet I originally had some misgivings about in late October. A fine season so far and lots of young players pushing for full-time jobs. For this hockey fan, watching kids win jobs is the best kind of team building. I do not expect all three of Skinner, McLeod and Broberg to emerge as foundation solutions (defined as starting goal, top 4D, top three centres and two sets of wingers) but it’ll be fun watching how this turns out.
OILERS AT EVEN STRENGTH, BY CENTER
I use the centermen as proxy (42-44 goals at even strength) but it isn’t possible to get it exactly right without tweaking. So, I give McDavid all the goals with and without Draisaitl, but Draisaitl only gets the non-McDavid goals. I think that’s fair, you might not like it and I invite any and all input. I’m most interested in being fair, although the goal that went in when Nuge was between Kassian and Foegele is an orphan. Here we go:
- Connor McDavid 20-16 (55 percent)
- Leon Draisaitl 11-5 (69 percent)
- Ryan McLeod 3-3 (50 percent)
- Derek Ryan 3-13 (19 percent)
- Devin Shore 2-5 (29 percent)
- Colton Sceviour 1-2 (33 percent)
- Orphans 2-0
The great thing about this situation (and it doesn’t really come through here) is the strong showing recently. Since November 1, the McDavid line has played 88 minutes, 5-2 goals, 53.3 shot share and 59.3 expected-goal share. Draisaitl’s trio is 86 minutes, 7-5 goals, 44 percent shot share and 40 percent expected goals. The McLeod line is 53 minutes, 3-3 goals, 53 percent shot share and 49 percent expected goals.
Since November 1, that’s 15-10 goals at even strength for the top three lines this month. That’s a positive. The only wobble is Leon’s line in shots and expected goals.
GO DADDY
I received an email yesterday night from Go Daddy, indicating my blog was one of 1.2 million breached by an unknown source. I wanted to be clear with you what that means. My blog has your email address but not your password, which means you could get phishing emails sent to you (and may have been since September). If you receive a suspicious email, please don’t click on it, delete immediately. More if I get anything from Go Daddy! and you should know we are now on Bluehost and things have been running far better lately. If you wish your account deleted, please email or leave a note in the comments section. Sincere apologies for any inconvenience.
STARS-OILERS
The first time Edmonton played the Stars, it was in Edmonton against the Minnesota North Stars and ended in a 5-5 draw. The North Stars boasted names like Fred Barrett (stay-at-home defender of note), Paul Shmyr, Al MacAdam, Steve Payne and Bobby Smith at that time. Minnesota built up a big lead in the second and Edmonton came roaring back in the third period. Stan Weir and Blair MacDonald scored twice for Edmonton.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have two hours of fun planned for you. Guests include Tyler Yaremchuk from Oilers Nation at 10:40, and Matthew Iwanyk at 11. We’ll have Crossfire with Al and Sal (10:20) and at 11:40 it’s Matt DeFranks from the Dallas Morning News to talk Dallas Stars. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Moritz Seider may have made it earlier and has had a bigger impact thus far, but Broberg is going to eat his lunch long term. What a pleasure to watch him hockey last night.
One silver lining of tonight’s game: Broberg’s play. Pleasantly surprised by what I saw from a raw, young 20 year old kid. Good positioning, no mistakes, confidence, smooth skating. He might be a gem.
I thought the oilers outplayed them 5×5 tonight, until they went down 4-1. Then they just kinda wilted. Lots of ozone time. And unable to break through the net front defence. I know it’s a losers lament, but I think the Oilers now have the third worst penalty differential in the league.
I disagree. I thought the Oil could not win a face off, were a step behind that led to wiffed passes and take aways against all night. They had no focus and in the first they barely got offensive zone time. That is my eye test. They were lucky Skinner was awake or it would have been much worse early.
No way the Oilers outplayed the Stars until it was 4-1. No way.
It’ll be Babcock next year. All the stars are aligning. And then they’ll win the 5v5 battle no problem.
look what Sutter has done with Calgary this year 5v5. A worse flames team on paper than last year.
babcock. Fall of ‘22.
hockey Canada connection. Detroit connection. The bad press will have largely blown over.
it’ll be Babcock.
as we say on the blog (and invariably are wrong): book it.
Not surprised. They looked like crap right out of the gate again. I watched until the first DAL goal and you knew where it was headed. What is that…..6 out of last 7 games chasing? Coaching and leadership is an issue.
Totally agree. If they did not have a game tonight I would have bag skated them all day today. “You don’t want to work during a game, we work now.” A step behind and no give-a shit.
The athletic has Broberg with 5 of Edmonton’s 22 shots.
also Russell with 8 blocks.
They did this agains Buff and Det. That’s 3 stinkers in 18. That’s a pretty high rate of not showing up. Who or what gets the blame for this if not the coaching? Motivating and preparing the talent is a central part of that job description, no?
Or is it something else? Are they just not that good? Is McD too quiet in the dressing room? Too many prima donas?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL0u35rZy2s
It’s been a while! Thank you.
Also quite apt.
Ha! Amazing response.
I’m concerned not that they lose games, but that they aren’t really even in some of them.
At least the 80s guys were doing things off ice they shouldn’t and not fit to play a lot of games, so a reason.
What’s the deal now?
Furious come backs are great to get a few points you shouldn’t, but that is no game plan or season strategy.
Reffing sucks yes, but is the answer to roll over to those guys in stripes? No. Injuries happen, you don’t have to play poorly as a result. Others have had it worse this year.
Tippet needs to have them being willing to play a tight game in tight games. To get Connor and Leo to play a more mature and patient game, as the game warrants, and lead the way. Still try to do what they do, but smarter, less hail mary’s.
Getting PO’d and trying to take the game into your own hands, and start forcing plays and turning over pucks, frustrated, is weak sauce at this point for the duo. It is a big part of why they got owned in two playoff rounds. The best players have to set the tone.
When will these coaches get the team playing like a solid top team consistently, as the teams that they will have to beat do? The roster is good enough IMO.
Oilers have the two leading scores in the NHL. They are also 31st in the NHL in penalties drawn. With the amount those two have the pick on their stick it doesn’t seem possible they could be that low. You hear media address it but why has none of the media specifically called out the league and asked someone like bettman to comment on it.
Not saying the reffing costed the Oilers the game. Dallas played a good game. One can say the reffing was terrible while still saying Dallas was the better team tonight and both can be true.
If the Oilers want success they need to forget about everything except their goals and game plan.
BS refs, a goof of a commissioner, being a star, media attention positive or negative, having to talk to the media about yourself awesomeness too much (the team should limit that IMO. It’s like a jinx, I think it makes them lose focus).
It’s your window, it’s go time etc etc. Turn it off and do your job.
It sucks, and as my wife says to our kids, life isn’t fair. How are you going to deal with that?
They have enough to work past with an uncreative, unmotivating coaching staff. Steady as she goes! Nobody is awake, get the blender out.
I don’t understand why McDavid doesn’t say fuck it and tell the world that he is only playing for money and that he doesn’t care if they win or lose.
If the game isn’t going to be played straight, why bother keeping score.
If I was him that is what I would do. I would hold a press conference and announce that I no longer have confidence in the integrity of the game. I will continue to practice with my team, and play in games, but I am doing this only for the money.
And then I would follow through, give a half assed effort and turn the season into the biggest scandal in hockey history. And then when reporters asked him what is going on he could just tell them the truth.
“I don’t have believe the game will be called fairly by the officials. Given this, I don’t see the point in trying in what is a glorified exhibition. I am not a monkey performing for your highlight packages. I am an elite athlete that deserves elite officiating. I will give the game as much respect as it is given by the league. Since the league has no respect for the game I don’t see why I should respect it either.”
Dare them to suspend him or fix the game. It would take balls the size of a planet, but it would also make him the most important player in hockey history.
Honestly, how this is not the biggest story every day on sportsnet I have no idea. The referees even called that garbage penalty at the end to try and cover their tracks so they stats would provide them cover. It’s gross.
People in the media should being doing nothing but talking about this. If they don’t they just show their hack colours, in bed with corruption.
With clowns like Torts always waiting on the sidelines ready to gaslight McD over him ‘not playing the game properly’…. this would only lead to his vilification. He’d be called a whiner before anyone respected the whistleblowing. Denial is just too easy. When that fails, they’ll make pleas to “old time hockey” and “both teams get called just as bad so it evens out”. In the end, it’s not that they don’t see it too. They just don’t care because it’s not their team. This argument will always be seen as a partisan plea.
I don’t think so. McDavid is the biggest star the game has had in thirty years. If he did it right it would bring the league into disrepute, no one would show up for the games, it would be a massive story.
The real reason it would never happen is the other players. This is the kind of thing that could destroy the league. The other players would put immense pressure on him to shut up.
That’s the real problem, the players are co-conspirators in this.
McDavid cares deeply what they think. I don’t, and with whatever millions of dollars he has saved, I would be willing to burn the whole league down.
McDavid won’t do it, and because of that he is going to retire as the biggest disappointment in NHL history.
why didn’t Crosby do it?
Different genre of player.
Crosby never faced officiating like this. No one has ever faced officiating like this.
It has never been this bad, not even close.
I’m not sure I agree with that statement. There were all sorts of cries of the abuse Crosby endured for years and years, and that was in a period with lots more abuse accepted by the refs.
I think we agree that it is incredibly unlikely to happen. I don’t believe it would come off even if he did attempt it. It’s just too easy to paint one person as the problem and hide behind numbers.
Sadly, the one person’s problem is that he’s f’ing awesome and the opposition predictably cheats.
I don’t think either the fans or the media complaining to the NHL will do any good, they have no interest in fixing the officiating. I believe fans should be contacting the sponsors of the NHL and complaining to them.
Essentially tell sponsors you will boycott their product till either they convince the NHL to address the problem or said company drops their support of the NHL.
A vocal minority gets it done? I don’t know. I just don’t see the businesses involved in sponsorship wanting to get involved and wouldn’t be swayed by anything but significant capital/revenue flows. Being a small market team, the oilers don’t have this on their side.
The PP with 19 seconds left was almost insulting.
The ridiculous thing is McD definitely embellished there…. He had a smirk after the call too. The whole thing made me sick.
That was one of those true stinkers.
I expect a much different performance tomorrow night, even with Broberg potentially being the team’s top d-man.
Against one of the worst teams in the league…let’s hope so.
Now I’m cheering hard for Chicago to bring me some hockey joy tonight!
It’s looking more like the Calgary Bettman Pointers will yet again, go to OT.
5-2 Flames.
Calgary is playing excellent hockey, Bettman points or not.
As much as the refs were frustrating, Dallas earned that victory. Amazing defensive performance.
It was. Much easier to do when your opponent has no cycle game, or one that can create enough HQ chances.
Oilers still really bad at the whole GAA part of the game.
And boy has our GFA dropped like a rock. Down 1.5 GF/G in this second set of 10 games (thus far) compared to the first 10 games, while the GA/G has gone up around 0.45. That’s bad.
Refs trolling the PP % tonight. 2 sub-30s PPs.
I thought Edm started with jump, first 5-6 mins they had Dallas hemmed, forcing lots of blocked shots. Then the weak call, then the automatic call, then the no-calls, and the big guys got frustrated. But the way that should have played out is the early momentum should have earned a call. Yes, they could and should have done a reset, but this outcome was substantially instigated and furthered by the refs tonight.
I may be totally recalling this wrong and it may be the meds but we went three shifts before getting any offensive zone time to start the game.
Tippett has to be PISSED! McDavid probably too. Wonder how tomorrow will go?
Dallas is likely one of the top 4 teams in the Western Conference. They started the season sending their best goaltender to the AHL, keeping the vets instead. But Oettinger is back.
Lost to the Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues in 7 three years ago.
Lost in the Stanley Cup champion Tampa Lightning in the finals two years ago.
Last year, everyone had surgery or got hurt.
This year added Suter to make a killer top 4, plus Haakenpaa for the 3rd pair.
Dallas D has got to be top-3 in the league.
garbage time PP. now the refs have the intestinal fortitude to call a penality
This is a rough patch but it’s still not worthy of Lightfoot
Lots to like about Broberg
Glad they noticed.
You know the refs are trolling you when they’ve let the other team get away with murder all game, then give you an end of game PP when your down by 3.
Hahaha. Now refs are trolling us too. Decide to make a call with 19 seconds left. Of course.
0-2 (probably) with 55 seconds of PP time… Sigh.
Yamo lacks acceleration.
LOL. Of course they make that call with 19 seconds left.
Feel bad for Skinner. He really didn’t have a chance on any of the goals against
Have to be actually at the net when you are trying to cycle, not standing behind the D.
Wonder if Woodcroft realizes he’s about to have 2 defensemen left tomorrow morning lol
The last time I turned an Oilers game off when they were getting spanked like this, late in a game, they came right back and won it on some McDavid heroics in the final seconds.
You should have turned it off tonight too…
Looks like the McDavid point streak ends tonight.
Well deserved loss (even assisted as it was by the refs).
Well at least they play Arizona tomorrow. Should be a cakewalk right?
.…….
right???
So as it is right now, Kris Friggin Russell is our Only NHL caliber LD?? If Keith is gone for any material amount of time, they’re in trouble. don’t think Lagesson can cover the loss of Keith.
Samorukov, come one down! You’re the next contestant on Thrown into the Fire!
In all seriousness, Oilers will be lucky to have a wild-card spot at Christmas.
The D (assuming Keith is out for a while) is terrifying, but this is a bit much no?
The Oilers could *almost* lose every game untill Christmas and still be in a wild card spot.
I think the Perlini with Drai and Mcdavid experiment should end there. Nothing rhymes this game.
I feel Tipps is trolling us
Exactly. More than one poster asked for it and Tipp provided.
Perlini is way too comfortable in his non NHL skin. Lost in space, all those tools.
Ya. I think the Perlini experiment should end. Puck was dying in his stick with the two big guns.
Dallas is playing a “Winnipeg light” game. The Winnipeg style of play is about the most challenging for this Oilers group.
Now that the game is more or less out of reach, the Oilers are guaranteed to get the next PP.
Yup. Albeit with 19 whole seconds left.
Gee thanks.
It’s safe to call the penalties now.
A goal by Luke Glendening is definitely the cherry on top.
The that the Gendening that’s formerly an Oiler?
That was Adam Clendening.
Is dening Scotting for Smith?
Depending on how much you value Kris Russell, the Oilers are now missing all three of their top LD
That’s definitely fair (even if you go by pre-injury TOI).
I will cut my finger off and give it to Nurse.
So our 40 yr old goalie is out and now our 38 yr old Dman as well. Seeing a pattern here….
Who could have predicted this???
Forgot Ryan has been banged up a few times as well!!!!
What happened in Vegas, TBay, Colorado?
Why wasTippett leaning on Keith so hard with a 4-1 lead last game 25 plus minutes if his back is effed his career is probably done.
Well you know players like to play a lot.
Shades of Sunderland leadership. What could possibly go wrong?
Stars good at protecting their centre ice
Yay trap hockey and no powerplays with 2 rook d and g. This is one of LT’s ya win 50 ya lose 50
Sure is frustrating though.
Kris Russell gives 100% all the time. Gotta give him that.
Worse ice the team has played on all season, soft slush
Hockey Night in Texas.
Broberg is looking pretty good. Confident with the puck
Kassian interfered with and cross-checked.
If players are willing to do that to him he’s not playing the game right.
You don’t have to be a fool, but they should know, or he’s useless.
Did I hear correctly that the Oil are down to 5 dmen?
Keith out for the rest of the game.
Keith done for the night with a UBI
I’m enjoying Luke with Gene. Refreshing
Well according to NHL game management officiating we should get a couple of PP’s in 3rd. Likely won’t be enough but you are never out of it with 97 +29….
I think the score is still too close.
Very weak effort tonight by our boys, given they’ve had 3 days off since they’re last game. A whopping 13 shots…lol
The zebra’s have had a poor game also. Oilers should have had a couple PP’s.
I’m struggling to reconcile what I’ve learned about officiating over 30+ years as an active official and what I’m seeing on TV. I mean, I know there’s a reason I’m at home and they’re on the ice in Dallas, but…..I’d love a chance to sit in on a review of the officials after a game
This comment is so important.
There is no correlation between how the game is officiated at every other level of hockey, and how it is officiated in the NHL.
There must be a 1000 officials in Canada who would do a better job than an NHL referee.