The Edmonton Oilers sit at 16-8-0 and own the second-best winning percentage in the Pacific Division. For those of us who remember the last time the team won a Division title (1987), that’s an interesting story line as the season rolls along.
Edmonton fans are restless, wanting to cash in the promise of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and see Stanley’s return to the NHL’s northernmost city. Fans want smart procurement, bets that make sense even if they don’t work out (things happen, as we all know) in the long run.
Oilers fans are a smart bunch, so when an Ethan Bear trade or a Duncan Keith trade happens, there is much fury because it’s known what has been surrendered and what has been returned. Both of those trades had the look of overpay using modern methods, but Ken Holland ‘gut and guile’ is the current metric being used at this time.
I would love to see an Eric Tulsky in Edmonton, but the Oilers had one and sent him away. I believe there are two fan trains going down the track, the Connor McDavid “Bound for Glory” train and the “Win with math, analytics and the people who can find the answer in the numbers” train.
I don’t think the second train gets here until after McDavid and Draisaitl have run their course in this city. They’re too good. They keep outscoring the flaws and that’s going to cover the old school decisions made by the current regime.
As for the current team, I think they played well enough to get a Bettman against Minnesota, despite the inexperience on the blue line and the early goaltending wobble. Perhaps a win for the town team tonight.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s first full NHL season a learning experience
- Lowetide: Analyzing Cody Ceci’s importance to the Edmonton Oilers and future deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
- DNB: Oilers turn to Markus Niemelainen
- Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ prospect pipeline has produced 2 call-ups on defence this season. Who’s next?
- DNB: What I think and what I know about the Oilers through their first 20 games
- Lowetide: How promising is the Oilers’ Russian prospect pool?
- DNB: Could Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals in 50 games?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers most pressing needs have changed since the offseason
- DNB: Tales from the days Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson were minor league roommates
- DNB: For Emily Cave, Colby’s widow, a trip back to Boston is about memories, love and legacy
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: LAK, MIN, BOS, CAR, TOR, CBJ (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, SJS, CAL, STL, NJD (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-7-0, 16 points in 15 games
- Actual December results: 1-3-0, 2 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 16-8-0, 32 points in 24 games
Bruins haven’t been setting the NHL on fire so far this season, and frankly are losing touch with the top teams in the Atlantic Division. I don’t see an easy out in this homestand, although the Blue Jackets are 4-6-0 in the last 10 games. Boston is 5-3-2, Edmonton is 5-5-0. The Oilers are on a pace that would see the team finish with 109 points.
OILERS THROUGH 24 GAMES, OVER FOUR YEARS
The Oilers have been good-to-great starters under Dave Tippett over the last three seasons, and the five-on-five goals and expected goals have all been around 50 percent. This year is a little shy, but (as I mentioned yesterday) the five-on-five goals since Darnell Nurse was injured (14-19, 42 percent) is basically the difference between current numbers and 50 percent. Oilers were 35-37 at that point in the season.
I think this year’s team is about the same as the last two Holland-Tippett teams, and of course the expectation was great improvement after the big procurement summer of 2021. Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan, Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci and the re-signing of Tyson Barrie and Mike Smith have the team in the same spot.
How best to improve this team? The quickest way is goaltending, but we don’t really know Mike Smith’s situation. If his ankle injury is a severe high ankle sprain, this could be an issue all season. If it’s coming along and all is well, then Smith is an option.
I think we’ll see a trade at the deadline. If the struggles continue, perhaps it happens before the Olympic break, but that’s a stretch at this point in the season.
CECI
It’s uncertain he’ll be back in time for tonight’s game, but a healthy Ceci would make a big difference for Edmonton tonight. I’d run Nurse-Bouchard, Broberg-Ceci and Niemelainen-Barrie. Kris Russell played well at the beginning of the injury games, but he’s all out of gas at this point.
ON DEMAND
I had an interesting exchange the other day in the comments section with one of the Loudmouth Hemskys. I respect the hell out of them, and like most on here who have popped by over the years, we’ve had a few conversations about various things.
This time, LMHF talked about being more demanding, holding the current management group to a higher standard. That viewpoint dovetails with much of what I’m seeing online, people who I know to be rational and reasoned saying things that run counter to the world as I see it.
Allow me to explain. If we’re talking over a beer, and you say “they need to fire Holland and Tippett” I look at the standings, assume Holland will add a goalie at the deadline, and counter with “it’s too early” and we are here.
The new approach, the LMHF approach, is to look past the standings to the expectation. It resembles European soccer fans to my eye, who view ownership as friend, ally or enemy depending on the situation. The unhappy fans are publicly outspoken and often are able to force change.
I’m not sure how far this will go, but it will be fascinating to watch. Can this group hasten a Tippett firing, as a for instance? I don’t see the coach in any kind of trouble at this time, suspect the Oilers would need to fall outside the playoffs for a couple of weeks, or lose 10 in a row.
I don’t see that happening.
However, if it works, then someone like me, who has been viewing the NHL for a long time, and drawing conclusions based on the past, would be one of the last individuals to know it was coming. So, we’ll monitor.
One positive from firing Tippett now, and I believe that’s one of the goals of this group (I call it a group, but it sounds like it’s grown without planned meetings and a mission statement), would be the boost a team sometimes gets from a new coach. Teams have won Stanley by throwing a coach overboard mid-to-late in the season.
It’s an exciting idea, fan base as a force powerful enough to exact change in real time. I wish all of you well, while also believing this team can win the Stanley Cup because of 97 and 29.
I don’t know the number of missteps a general manager or a coach is allowed in their term under the new fan rules, but if Daryl Katz responds to the pressure, one expects we’ll see an Eric Tulsky or five living in downtown Edmonton, walking to work and having a few brews in the spots surrounding Rogers in the years to come.
I’d start with the Puck IQ people, maybe see if Dellow is interested in another move west (probably need a guaranteed contract), and most importantly men in the GM and head coach positions who are hungry for the information that will be fed to them.
There are bargains every summer in free agency who deliver the following winter. Michael Bunting, Braden Holtby, others.
I found out why people are so aggressive. I thought it was rage. Turns out it’s an organic movement, like hippies and tomatoes. I’m not part of the movement, but am fascinated by its existence and future. I do love tomatoes.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a really big show coming. Chris Johnston, TSN Insider and Toronto Star columnist, will discuss the Oilers three-game losing streak, the Canucks under Bruce Boudreau, the Olympics and the NHL, plus the breaking story surrounding the Coyotes in Arizona. We’ll also have a Bruins guest to talk about a team that should be winning more games based on talent. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Surprise.
No 5 on 5 goal….but chalk up another moral victory!
Long time fan, sometime hater. Let’s look at what happened. Lose your entire defence and hope Barrie can hold it up (that’s a losing cause). I have patience with Tyson, however you do have to play defence at points. Also, I don’t think skinner/koski is not our answer. When goaltenders are on everything its great, like hanging with your wife, “we killed it this week” It’s a hard game.
Oilers December record the past few years since i saw someone wondering earlier…
2016 = 7-2-5
2017 = 7-5-1
2018 = 6-7-1
2019 = 5-8-1
2020 = 0-0-0
2021 = 1-4-0
Total = 26-26-8
Wow. Just checked the score. They fought back only to give it up in the last 3 mins?! What a kick to the nards. Leadership and management to the spotlight!
Is that worse than falling behind, then mailing it in at 8:00 like you did? 😉
Thankfully my ‘mailing it in’ didn’t affect the outcome and I was spared the rage.
I consider giving a game away with 3 mins to go, during the longest losing streak of the year, especially bad. Of course, injuries. But Nurse is back, Ceci played, the only true missing dman is Keith. Was he that integral to success?
Please don’t start throwing around the l-word.
What’s happening ain’t poker or a coin flip. They’re not playing as well and not for as much of the game. It’s that simple. It’s not bounces ffs.
Actually, I think it was the bounces tonight.
Oilers were the better team for most of this game.
Bruins finished their chances, the Oilers didn’t. Pretty much that simple.
Also, the Bruins 2nd goal was a gift from the refs. Weak call on Draisaitl, and then a brutal non call against Yamamoto that directly results in a goal. I’m not a guy that bitches about the refs much, but that was brutal.
“Finished their chances” is execution.
The Oilers also spent a bunch of the game not getting to the front of the net, then finally did in the third. That’s not good enough.
2 goals never cuts it for this team. It means they didn’t do near enough right on a given night. 1 period isn’t going to beat the Bruins twice in a season.
Take a breath.
You’re angry cause they lost. I get it.
If they play like that for the next 55 games they’ll be fine.
1 Not angry. Do people really associate all critical eyes with anger these days?
2 Have always disagreed with the large segment around here who immediately goes to the four-letter l-word when the team loses but gets shots or sweats a bit in the third period.
3 I disagree that they will win playing like that. Way too many whiffs, rushed plays, indecisiveness and not seeing the game in front of them. Effort only works when it’s applied properly.
1. My bad, you sounded angry.
2. Sometimes the puck doesn’t go in. Either the goalie stones you or you can’t pick a corner. It’s a game of inches sometimes. If you want to call that execution instead of luck, so be it.
3. Do you not think the Oilers outplayed the Bruins? I mean, they outshot them handily, and seemed to have a decided edge in zone time. You seem like a pretty harsh grader tonight.
They outplayed them in the third but were quite ineffective before that. Moreover when they did make the effort, the didn’t make use of it. They didn’t break down Boston’s structure to create the plays they needed.
I do have things that I grade quite harshly that others may not. Missing chances and rushing shots or passes is definitely on that list. Not attacking the middle of the ice is another. In the defensive end, throwing the puck up the boards and giving the opposing point men too much room are a couple of the things that will get my ire.
I agree – they let up in the 2 minutes leading up to Boston’s winning goal, as if there was an agreement the game would go to OT.
Oilers had lots of shots but Boston had just as many HDSC to my eye. Oilers are so easy to ‘box out’ – Ullmark had no problem collecting his rebounds.
The league has figured this out and Oilers are going to have to adapt or they’ll be fighting with Seattle and Vancouver (!) for the playoffs soon
Not gonna lie…this one hurt. The crazy thing is I think it was one of our most solid performances of the year. From top to bottom the guys worked their butts off. Right up until we tied it…which is a really strange time to coast.
I’ve said it earlier tonight and I’ll say it again. If we play with this type of work ethic(minus the 5 minute lull) we will win more than lose. I just hope the fellas recognize this and don’t let frustration creep in…
Onward and upward! Let’s stay a winning streak!!! GO OILERS!!!
Well said. They played excellent overall. If they keep playing that way, they’ll win more than lose in the long run.
Momentum changes and so does luck. We’ve had a good run of bad luck. The worm is gonna turn here soon. We just gotta keep working and the results will take care of themselves. It can’t rain all the time.
I’m outta clichés…but they’re all true!!!
You mean it can’t rain every knight? 😉
Pining for Gene’s job, eh? lol
Foegele is playing like that and you only give him 12:36?! Come one!
Come all?
Whats going on with Barrie he looks straight up awful out there. Is it the ‘Oiler scapegoat’ curse. Are we Jultzing him this year?
Early season puck luck and PP lethality evaporated and these Oilers are revealed for who we thought they were – an unbalanced crew that can be boxed out pretty easily by 2/3 of the league. Back to the drawing board, 3 years left…
40% powerplay tonight, that wins alot of games.
Can’t hide Nemo with only one other LD. and he didn’t look a step out of place.
Hell of a game. Should’ve got the win. They play like that every night and I won’t worry too much. Got a little scrambly at times in their own end but down to 5 dmen and two of them rooks, it’s going to happen.
Hard to watch Barrie tonight. Struggled all night. Would like to have seen Bouchard out late trying to tie up the game.
I do NOT understand Tippett sticking with Barrie, regardless of outcome. Why not try Bouch out there? They did get 2 on the pp tonight but more a reflection of McDavid and Drai.
Barrie, how did you get changed after the game so fast and onto the forum to click on the minus?
Yes. Bouchard or Nurse at the end would have been much better. I wonder if Barrie is injured, the way he’s playing.
Positive is the Oilers are learning the hard lessons of playing hard and losing. Tides are turning but when you lose the games you should win, and then continue to face murderer’s row, the streak could be long. Out goaltended again.
the goalie on the other side played a great game. I’d hardly say we were outgoaltended. The story is 5 on 5 scoring.
Damn.
This team is running some shit luck since the end of November. Not gonna lie, it’s not looking good…
just remembering that I did say back when Keith got injured that this team will be lucky to hold onto a wildcard spot by Christmas. This was not something I wanted to be right about.
Calgary Bettman’s got another Bettman, now 4 points up on the Oilers. While the Ducks are now 3 points up on them (although oilers have the three games in hand, they probably mean nothing since oilers would be lucky to win any of them right now)
Drai sets up Hyman perfectly and he couldnt handle the pass
Hyman should’ve had redemption there. Damn.
I don’t think the GA was Hyman’s fault. It was Yamamoto (doing the Kassian) playing way up high on the right boards avoiding the action on his wall below the faceoff dot, leaving a wide open lane for the Bruin to skate the puck off the wall.
Yamamoto should be playing down the wall, forcing the Bruin to pass the puck to the left point. He left Hyman with a Sophie’s choice.
Grzxzlczxck was Hyman’s man, as was defending the cross-ice pass. Whether or not Yams was playing it wrong–and I don’t think he was–Hyman still had no need to come over and challenge. He was cheating for the steal because he could see where the play was going, but failed to execute and paid the price.
Hyman still should finish that chance.
I need to look at the replay and see where Hopkins was on the GA. Regardless even if Hyman needed to come over (need to verify) he still can’t be that far over and on that skating line.
Notice the Oilers wide side winger doing that alot – chasing to the puck side. Must be coached like that for some reason.
Did someone say the game was over? Why did they stop pushing? Grind, grind, grind!!! Holy man…I hope I live long enough to see the day they learn this lesson…smh.
Hyman WAY out of position there. You can’t give them that much room. Ugh…
Watch the replay.
Hyman was out of position because Smith beat Bouchard out of the corner. Hyman either challenges or Smith walks right down the slot.
That’s the Nuge’s job to challenge that move, and he was there, although a titch outside of where he ideally would be.
Oh Oilers, you just keep giving
Fuck. Of course. Hyman was way out of position on that play.
80 with another strong defensive shift and lots of tape-to-tape.
Easily past 6 on a sane depth chart.
Skinner needs to soak up some of these rebounds
hall still likes to shoot the puck opposite side of the goalie and let the puck rim out of the zone.
Where’s the interference call on Draisaitl there?!
Foegele’s stick is too long. The toe is sitting up off the ice meaning he has to adjust and have the puck too far from his body. He’s also missed several pucks coming around the boards that have gone right under his stick.
Great game from him just a touch off.
A 5×5 go ahead goal from Foegole was so deserved there
Has anyone ever worked as hard as 37 without getting rewarded?
Really nice game for the 3rd line.
Just imagine if Foegele had great hands…
Then we could trade him for a cost-controlled, top 4 RD.
Hyman *just* missed on a beautiful redirection before the tying goal.
Leon is fired up.
BOOM!!!! Drai didn’t want the flutter to be on the highlights!!!
Keep Grinding!!!
I think he calls those a bit fluffy
The Con’Leon Mcpowerplay strikes again!!!
that guy from that spot
Again
Draisaitl scores. The PP one-timer….again!
Oh my!! Draisaitl again!!
Oilers get a reffing / game management break, Coyle 2 minutes for being twice Yamo’s size – I’ll take it!
Such a calm little tapback by Boosh there at the offensive blue line under incredible pressure.
And now a PP
Hell of a game.
Wow.
Pujo needs to go full-Stephane Richer more often,.
How many times have our players fanned on the shot this evening? Holding the stick a little tight
Now Niemelainen save’s a more-sure goal.
Hyman should have dropped to Pujo when he pulled up and shot
There is some of the value of Nuge – saved a sure goal by that stick check on Hall.
That was actually McDavid
I thought Gene was going to say to Struds, “Well you played against Esposito, what do you think…” But he went with Bergeron instead lol.
I say Foegele is going to get rewarded with a big goal coming up. Book it!
Foegele has hands of Ethan Moreau.
Bob always looks like he’s quietly holding in years of pain.
Comes with rooting for the Oil
After Two:
2-1 Boston (1-1 tie)
27-15 Edmonton shots (14-6 Edmonton in the second)
34-15 Edmonton Corsi five-on-five (22-6 Edmonton in the second)
==
Oilers have the edge in shots and Corsi, but haven’t been especially dangerous for much of the game. A late surge, which include the goal, might be enough for the Oilers to push through for a result. Taking penalties has been an issue early in both of the first two periods, important for the team to start well in the third.
McDavid is mad btw. That’s good.
Don’t change your game, guys! You can’t win the game alone. Grind, grind, grind! Wear em down and make good on your chances. Am I crazy thinking the third line is setting the tone? Love it. Haven’t said that in years and years and years…if only for tonight it’s pretty sweet.
Come on Bison King. You are so wickedly overdue…