That was a helluva game, huh? Man. Hello Warren Foegele!! I still can’t believe the puck wouldn’t go in for him. Stuart Skinner 25 of 26 stop at five-on-five, Leon hammered home a couple. Edmonton earned a result that didn’t come.
Now, the internet is going to tear a hole in the space time continuum and you if you let it today, so I recommend avoiding the hot zones unless you’re into it and want to join the fun.
For me, I loved the game. Give me that game 82 times a year (obviously with wins in there) and I’m a happy man. For Ken Holland and Dave Tippett, furrowed brows and headaches from late nights with coal oil lamps are probably in the immediate future, but that was a fine game.
Today, we’re going to talk about players who are going to need to step up or risk moving down the depth chart, up into the press box, or out to another NHL city. It’s not fair. It’s just business.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s first full NHL season a learning experience
- Lowetide: Analyzing Cody Ceci’s importance to the Edmonton Oilers and future deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
- DNB: Oilers turn to Markus Niemelainen
- Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ prospect pipeline has produced 2 call-ups on defence this season. Who’s next?
- DNB: What I think and what I know about the Oilers through their first 20 games
- Lowetide: How promising is the Oilers’ Russian prospect pool?
- DNB: Could Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals in 50 games?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers most pressing needs have changed since the offseason
- DNB: Tales from the days Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson were minor league roommates
- DNB: For Emily Cave, Colby’s widow, a trip back to Boston is about memories, love and legacy
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: LAK, MIN, BOS, CAR, TOR, CBJ (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, SJS, CAL, STL, NJD (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-7-0, 16 points in 15 games
- Actual December results: 1-4-0, 2 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 16-9-0, 32 points in 25 games
The Oilers are going to get caved for the four-game losing streak and it does take the bloom off the rose in allowing Anaheim and others (notably Vegas but that was inevitable) into the conversation. I think last night was a good game, the team got some good arrows from previously dormant spots. Also, the puck isn’t going in for some of these players and we’re close to a reckoning at some roster spots. Here are the standings.
MacT always said there are games you play well enough to win at the end of losing streaks, and I can categorically say Edmonton played well enough to win. It shouldn’t be overstated, the Bruins were on the second of btb’s and I still don’t like the defense, but if the team plays that well the puck will start going in again soon.
I can’t tell you to not worry, because a four-game losing streak is significant. I can tell you that all four lines did at least some things well, Skinner was solid, Markus Niemelainen had another good game and the team is on pace to finish with 105 points. That’ll do.
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
I’m not sure my morning notes are giving you the best information. You can get all those numbers at Natural Stat Trick. If you want them, holler and I’ll provide them, but I am not convinced they hold value for you. I’m content looking them up myself and then passing along the things worth noting imo. Here goes.
- Tyson Barrie had two assists but a pile of giveaways and of course the ghastly turnover (he and Nuge hooked up for some Marx Brothers action). I wrote about Barrie this week (thanks for reading!) and will say that Bouchard’s time is close. I do think Barrie has value and should fetch something in the summer. Third pair at evens, hopefully somewhere around 50 percent on-ice goals (17-19).
- Evan Bouchard looked like he stopped because a penalty was being called just before the DeBrusk goal. I’m not certain of it, but he needs to play that situation better. He was also passive on the third, winning goal. Two shots, great passing, I think Tippett would be wise to drop Bouchard from the heavy PK rotation and tack on several PP minutes a game.
- Zach Hyman had the game tying goal on his stick and bounced it back to the goalie instead of into the net. He’ll get blamed for the winner, didn’t cover his man, but that was a chaos incorporated play before Hyman got involved. Bouchard and (as Godot mentioned in the comments) Kailer Yamamoto needed to pressure there. Drew a penalty.
- Connor McDavid was brilliant, just sensational with two grand chances at five-on-five plus the PP assists. I imagine he’ll get the heavy treatment against Carolina, but there’s a big game coming around the bend for the captain. His pass to Leon for the second goal should be in the Louvre. He got held on pretty much every play, the Bruins defense was lost in the supermarket when 97 was on the ice and had no choice. McDavid drew two penalties, could have been nine.
- Leon Draisaitl had two goals, six shots, and I’ve come to believe it’s time to shake up the second line. Nuge-29-KY were 4-9 shots, while Draisatl was 4-1 shots with 97 and Puljujarvi. Not sure which of his wingers should move down the depth chart, but this line is stale. It is not 29’s fault.
- Cody Ceci was 8-6 shots in 15:46, three shots on goal and tidied up some messes as they appeared. Russell’s injury meant he split time with the veteran and young Markus Niemelainen. Solid play with both partners.
- Kris Russell blocked some shots and got hurt, this time it might be something that keeps him out of the lineup for a time. Stay tuned.
- Warren Foegele had his best game as an Oilers player, he was pushing the entire game. Six shots on goal and a couple that went wild, he contributed to a solid third line.
- Darnell Nurse played 28:48, had some great looks and five shots on net. He had one very good opportunity but hammered it into shin pads. That’s the old Nurse, suspect he’s still a little rusty coming back from injury.
- Ryan McLeod had the wheels turning and one great look but that damn puck was a bouncer so no luck there. The No. 3 line led by McLeod is 2-3 five-on-five in the last eight games.
- Zack Kassian had one shot and forechecked well a few times, but it wasn’t an overwhelming game.
- Jesse Puljujarvi had a brilliant dash down the wing and almost scored on one of those 1960’s shots. Made Bruins mad by the dozens with his net-front presence and had four shots, three takeaways and a HDSC. When they move Hyman to RW, it’s important JP is the one to stay on the 97 line.
- Markus Niemelainen hit five more guys, finally took a penalty and showed good mobility. He played more than expected due to Russell’s injury and that may continue.
- Stuart Skinner played well, I don’t blame him for any of the goals. A little shaky stickhandling but in the net he was fine.
- Colton Sceviour was part of a solid fourth line, had one shot on goal and pushed the puck to safe places. He also had two clean minutes on the penalty kill.
- Derek Ryan had a quiet game with the puck, but the fourth line didn’t give up a goal at five-on-five. The line played 4:04, going 2-2 shots. Played two clean minutes at four-on-five. He was 2-1 on-ice goals at five-on-five after four games, and is 1-15 since. Last two games no goals either way. Someone, maybe Darcy McLeod, mentioned Ryan was maybe injured in or after those first four games. That might not be all of it, but it could be a part of the season he’s having.
- Devin Shore was on the ice for the GA on the PK for Edmonton, part of an effective fourth line who played limited minutes. He better suited to the fourth line role than Tyler Benson or Brendan Perlini, I’d run Benson a little higher and keep the fourth line intact.
- Kailer Yamamoto. I’m a fan of this player, but at some point he needs to do something in the offensive zone. He has one goal and five shots at five-on-five in his last 10 games. I don’t think Tippett can reward Yamamoto with these prime minutes any longer. Drew a penalty.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one shot on goal, he is 1-1-2 with 19 shots on goal in his last 10 games. He did strike iron once.
FORWARD LINES
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi is my favourite line right now, and Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto had good xGF% too. Nuge can’t drive a line.
DEFENSE
Does this work better than previous incarnations? I think I like it better. This graph really drives home what a tough night it was for Tyson Barrie, and this doesn’t include his power-play mistake. Niemelainen-Bouchard wasn’t good, but in a small sample. The rest looks solid, welcome back Cody Ceci!
OILERS FORWARDS SCORING, LAST 10 GAMES (FIVE-ON-FIVE)
- Connor McDavid 3-4-7
- Zach Hyman 3-2-5
- Leon Draisaitl 1-3-4
- Jesse Puljujarvi 2-2-4
- Zack Kassian 1-2-3
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1-1-2
- Warren Foegele 0-2-2
- Ryan McLeod 2-0-2
- Kailer Yamamoto 1-0-1
Yamamoto scored three goals in the previous 10-game stretch, that’s a number that warrants keeping him inside the top-six. He isn’t shooting a lot, that’s something on his resume, but he shoots from high-danger areas so boasts a career five-on-five scoring percentage of 11.94 percent. I cheer like hell for him, but KY needs to deliver more.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Friday! I can’t imagine how much fun this show will be today. TSN1260, starting at 10. We’ll sing songs that remind us of the good times, we’ll sing songs that remind us of the best times. Steve Lansky pops in at 10:20 to talk Oilers losing streak and Grey Cup, and Matt Iwanyk will give us his take on the GC game and what each team has to do in order to win. Special “Crossfire!” too! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday!
After enough players come and go – the reason for the weak 5×5 play starts to look like a coaching issue. I would have no issue letting Tip go and bringing in Woody for the 2nd half of the season if things don’t improve substantially by G40.
The Universe is unfolding as it should.
The Avalanche beat the Red Wings 7-3 (and it could have been much worse) to move into the top 3 in the Central.
Worth noting, all Colorado goals were scored at evens and DevonToews registered 3 assist.
So, a known good team beat a known bad team and a player had a good night.
So a known good team that has been devastated by numerous injuries to both 1st and 2nd line forwards and 3 of the best defensemen in the game is close to healthy (Byram still out) absolutely dominates another team and becomes the highest scoring team in the league while scoring 7 goals at even strength.
How many games would it take for the Oilers to score 7 at evens?
10 games? More?
If one truly wanted to note something that had value on the scoreboard tonight in relation to the Oilers it would be Vegas losing in regulation to Philly (now 1-8-1 in their last 10 with the win).
Of course, that goes against Vegas being one of the 17 teams poised to gain ground and rocket and the related anti-Oiler narrative.
And this in a nutshell is exactly why no one here cares what you have to say. You anti-Oiler hate runs deep. Go away.
RE Goalies:
Skinner isn’t ready to play NHL big time hockey and never may be ready ever.
Smith gets hurt by stubbing his toe and is out for months.
Koskinnen is a fine backup who loses it when made the starter.
NONE of them can be counted on.
Oilers ran this hot mess for the first quarter of the season but this is now exposed and something needs to be done. Back when the team had great management – Sather would get a goalie between 22-31 who could step in and win games and more important not lose them in the first 10 minutes.
I would note that Sather didn’t have to manage those teams in the cap era.
I wouldn’t say the tending has been exposed, necessarily – its no worse than anticipated as Mikko has been better than last season and Skinner has shown that he’s likely a legit back-up at this point (to a true starter).
It would be quite helpful if the skaters didn’t give up so many high danger chances, uber high danger chances, especially early in games.
Oilers are the Tommy Hearns of the NHL.
I stick by my analysis of the three goalies. None are dependable despite attempts at spin re cap era etc.
The cap piece had nothing to do with the analysis of the existing tending, it was related to the ability to just go bring in another player ala Sather.
Sather regularly traded players. Sather identified exactly what he needed to augment his 5 or 6 all star players and moved accordingly.
So if the cap is the be all and end all like you seem to be leaning toward, where does that leave the Oilers who clearly have no goalie that they can count on?
Dubnyk is the problem
Talbot is problem
Brossoit is not even good enough to be a backup
We are getting outscored at even strength
We are getting outshot while trailing a shit ton of minutes in games so far.
Goalie sure but it’s much more than that.
So the league thinks the players will be square with the owners in 3years if you include this one.
That is the key factor – paying off the escrow balance – the cap doesn’t go up more than $1MM until its paid off.
The salary cap will be $82.5M next year
This has been speculated for months but Bettman made it official at the BOG meetings today
Yup – no surprise.
This was pretty much mandated in the MOU for the CBA extension, $1M increases if they hit the HRR targets but no more than $1M until the escrow balance is paid off which might just need two more full seasons.
Tullio with a 2nd-period PP goal to put Oshawa ahead 2-1. His 7th tally of the season.
He later tacked on an assist to finish 1+1 in a 5-1 victory. Also had a game-high 5 SOG.
Sounds like Kevin Fiala might be being shopped. Despite very low shot % this season he’s a first person shooter that we really could use. Tied for first in shots for the wild.
I would trade Nuge for him if I could sign him long term at a reasonable cap
why wild do this?
well behind Erickson ek it’s a big drop off to Rask who is a UFA after this year and they could really use a top 6 center. They have an internal replacement for Fiala in Boldy and Rossi will probably start at wing. Cap is an issue going forward so having a cost controlled Nuge helps them out
Came across this this-morning (or was it yesterday?)
Legit source???
“Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Ethan Bear was scratched on Thursday night against the Calgary Flames. He is not battling any kind of injury. Bear had struggled a bit in his past three games seeing bottom pairing ice time. He then compounded the less time with more mental mistakes. Rod Brind’Amour seemed to think that maybe a rest and reset was needed for the young defenseman. He has a goal and five assists in 18 games for Carolina while playing 17:51 a night. —Chris Wassel – RotoBaller
Source: NHL.com
Way down below, OP says Bear is ill (not with Covid).
Tip said earlier “looks like it could be at least a weak or so with but won’t know more until they get the tests” – on Russell.
He’s on IR now but, from the above, it may not be too long term.
Russell on IR and Broberg recalled is official.
Hat tip for your finding Nemo scouting.
How long is Holland’s contract? What are ownership’s minimum expectations for Holland to remain as GM? Asking for a friend.
Holland can simply step back to POHO at any time if he decides to fire his GM. Unless Katz steps in not happening. Burgers is lost in Rexall, volunteers are looking.
Foegele was killing Boston breakouts with aplomb last night by getting on their D fast and furious
Wasn’t following the live game time thread.
Loved those Silver Shin Pads for Kris Russell.
Can’t wait till they award Tyson Barrie with the Solid Silver Turnstile.
Kidding…..
Kassian needs a Silver Toilet
Barrie could do one thing today that would most likely instantly improve his defensive play at least a little, imo:
Lengthen his stick.
He is short, with short arms, uses a short stick and doesn’t have good lateral agility anymore. When he reaches out to make a stick play (ie. poke check, intercept a pass, etc) he doesn’t get too far. His range is very small.
Probably he uses a short stick because he feels his puck handling is better with it. But…..
Barrie is a good skater with high offence hockey IQ. Why he cannot use that skating and IQ on the defensive side of the puck is beyond me.
He’s not a good skater. He has good movement without the puck and he has good lateral mobility with the puck, but he isn’t a good skater by NHL standards.
It is pretty interesting to me how often people make comments on skating that don’t fit with what happens on the ice.
Russell is a bad skater going backward, worse than Barrie.
Keith is also a bad skater. It’s why these two always give up the line.
Benson is not a bad skater, he’s fine, not great but at least average. He’s no worse than Ryan or Sceviour.
This made me giggle- are you part of the smart Oilers fans the Edmonton media talk about?
Keith may be losing his boots, but he was brilliant at one time. I’ve never seen a D so quick to the puck, miles ahead of the forecheck
Appears to me that a lot of guys need to lengthen their stick as they get older. Not just for defensive purposes which I am talking about above but for pass reception, stick handling, puck play. It may not be a hard rule for everyone but I seem to be noticing it for 30+ers.
Lucic – was just horrible with missing the puck, stick up in the air. He’s lengthened it now.
Kassian could use a longer twig.
My guess is that as guys get older their bodies change, especially with all the off season training. More muscle, less flexibility often, and bending over isn’t as natural or perhaps easy.
So many examples of this. Even the great one. Look at video of him in his hey day carrying the puck, bent way way over. Later –> more erect. like most things in life – more erect as we get older. Am I right? At least that’s my experience not sure about you bent over fellas.
😉
Brilliant observation!
Heh heh
Suter fixed that flexibility problem for Wayner
The visual.
Tyson Barrie, the T-Rex of Oilers defensemen.
On stick length and defending….Niemelainen is like the opposite Barrie.
Tall, long arms, long stick and good mobility (and not great with the puck).
Defends very well with his body, if he gets real good at defending with his stick….hoooweeee lookout!!! Range!!!
I watched some of the last Kraken game. Larsson looked like a T-Rex.
A T-Rex with long arms and a long stick.
That boy’s got some bite to his game.
Changing stick length is a massive deal. I wouldn’t mess with it. Maybe in off season.
We need some accredited ‘stickologists’ on this site. The hockey blog equivalent of phrenology for sure.
Hey Ryan, is there a possibility of increasing the number of comments linked to under the “recent comments” sections on the right?
I ask because on days when I am trying to catch up reading the daily comments, I get finished, then refresh and there is more than 8 there and if I want to catch ALL the comments I need to scroll through the whole day again, and then sometimes repeat again, etc.
Just wondering if that’s at all possible.
And hey, thanks brother for all you do for us. MUCH appreciated. The new host (non GoDaddy) is working pretty good hey?
I have asked this as well (for the same reason) but I think my ask/question was lost in the shuffle.
In order to find those additional comments, I will generally just search by time.
oh, search by time? am I missing something? How do you do that? Do you mean the newest/oldest function?
Just a regular webpage search. For example, before I reload (which updates the recent posts), I’ll check the of the last post, lets say its 5:01. I’ll then reload and, if there are 14 new posts, I’ll know there are 6 not on the list. I’ll then do a “command F for “5:0” which will show the posts between 5:00 and 5:09, then I’ll do a search for “5:1” to see the posts between 5:10 and 5:19, etc.
It’s alot of work but, if one wants to make sure they don’t miss posts in a threaded structure….
oh wow, okay cool, thank you very much! I’ll give er a try
ho dude! That is going to save me SO much time! thank you!
Glad that its helps!
Yesterday LT was kind enough to post the Condors EV goal totals when discussing Woodcroft as a potential successor to Tippett. They are 41GF – 46GA overall, and this deficit is because they are -7 at EV. However, someone asked what their shot totals were, and I just added them up to be 474 SF – 371 SA = 56.1%.
Thanks, that is impressive.
Mostly goalie 🤷
But our EV goal differential for “Pretty Goals” is over the moon.
We’d be way ahead of the game if Tip could just teach them to Tip.
#JoePavelski
Yes and yes. They all count the same.
Its almost like Tipp has two teams to coach.
I feel like it must have been mentioned last night, but did anyone notice how the Oilers played 50 minutes of hockey without giving up a 5×5 goal? Then, as soon as Draisaitl got us back to even on special teams, Tippett loaded up Draisaitl and McDavid and our second line got scored on? Why would you do that with the game tied and overtime in sight? Flabbergasting.
The top line was loaded up well before the game had been tied. I didn’t notice it change the needle at evens regardless, but that wasn’t a decision only when the game was tied.
True, I hadn’t noticed Tippett moved to it after the first goal. Still. Why?
Friday ramblings
What I would like to see:
1/ Connor and Leon paired up so they can win the game in the first ten minutes as opposed to trying to win it in the last ten minutes. Play the absolute best line in the league first, get ahead, then move to number 3.
2/ Connor needs to stand up in the room and say “hey guys, f*ck off already. I’m fully covered and yet you throw it at me at every dam second” “for gods sake do something yourself, let me get open at least”
3/ Superstar syndrome continues. Coach should turn Connor and Leon loose, then coach up the rest of the team. Give them goals and accountability – then play them. That excitement they all showed at start of the season, its fading, because not all are contributing. They can disappear in the shadows. Drag them out, pull your weight, let them respond, they are all NHL players. One of the reasons I like Foegele and Hyman is they have not yet succumbed to that shadow.
Im not too worried about this streak. The Oilers have the talent and if they keep working on their team game, involve everyone, find identity outside of just the big two, and do this with consistency they will be sitting fine at the end of the year. Because once they get to this point, they will still have Leon and Connor for the win, but they need everyone to get there.
The one surprising thing about the Tippett era for me is the bottom six.
We all thought Tippett’s calling card was getting a bunch of talentless desert dogs to grind and trap the hell out of you.
Why doesn’t someone tell Tippett to pretend that he’s coaching the Arizona Coyotes when deploying the bottom six?
We are playing our playoff brand of hockey in early December. I’m glad to be addressing it now instead of April.
From DNB’s article on Bear (referring to the game tying goal in the elimination game vs. Winnipeg):
The Oilers returned to Edmonton. With end-of-season meetings and players ready to go their separate ways for the summer, team camaraderie wasn’t running high.
“The one thing that sucked is I didn’t feel like I had much support when it happened,” he says. “It was such a weird thing to go through, and it just felt like I was alone.”
—-
https://theathletic.com/3008099/2021/12/10/ethan-bear-is-rising-above-and-thinking-big-i-wanted-to-make-a-difference/?source=user_shared_article
—-
That’s a humdinger of a quote. DNB bringing the dynamite! He’s a good journalist. I theorized something like this probably happened back in the summer, nice to see confirmation.
It’s one thing for players to be like that, though I disagree with it. Very bad look on coaching and management, IMO. Only one team wins the cup. The rest of the time, there’s a GA and someone made some mistake somewhere. Doesn’t mean they’re a terrible player, doesn’t mean they are the problem. Also, it’s one thing to be pissed if you’re an elite EV team and lose. If you’re a middling EV team with a flawed roster? Well that’s the expected outcome. Blaming Ethan Bear doesn’t make a lick of sense.
But what do I know? I keep seeing more and more crazy in coaching/management decisions and many are pleased as punch, I feel like Alice in Wonderland here sometimes.
That quote is actually quite depressing and I am the resident pessimist.
I look at it a bit differently – coaches come and go and GM’s don’t offten see the troops.
Most teammates will be there for a long while. This is similar type of comment as JJ once mentioned as well.
So much for Band of Brothers.
Given that Jesse felt alone when he was here speaks to the culture of the org.
I know that was for a different GM, but…..there’s something in the water……
It appears to be the players that are the issue.
Jessie is a good example but for different reasons.
I think Ethan was referring to his one big mistake and how everybody was looking to blame him, seeing and judging his one big mistake but not allowing any credit for his good games. He was not supported or felt supported in that mistake, and given the end of the season, had no chance for redemption, no team around him, only to sit and stew on it. With Covid, there was little interaction outside the rink.
Another guy that does not jump to mind quickly but equally impacted would be Taylor Hall. This was a guy who took a lot of sh*t every year, held up as the reason for failure, then has to sit and stew on it all summer. He had good fans here, but he also had poor fans, press, coaches and GM’s that did not support him.
My guess is dogshit. There is dogshit in the water.
Im not sure how to take that. Ethan wanted to get away by himself, he isolated himself in a little cabin. He wanted to get away from the microscope. I wonder how many players feel this way? Particularly in that lock down covid year where every movement was monitored. But typically you are still living and breathing as a team and the end of the season with pressure suddenly being released, buddies dispersed, sudden freedom away from the daily org driven schedule, I bet it can be very difficult. Time to sit and reflect. You see this in many players when they retire as well.
I think there is something to this. Im not sure the Edmonton club owns all of this, however, if they are listening, its within their control to reach out and see how everybody is doing.
Lots of blog love for Bear lately. Have we forgotten that teams were targetting his side in the playoffs and he was a glaring weakness? I’m thrilled to have WF for the playoffs. He can target the EBs on the other team.
The Hawks feasted on Bear as well go back and watch how easily Tippett was out Coached by a team that had no business being in the playoffs.
@frank_seravalli
NHL says the Players’ $1 billion debt to owners is expected to be paid off in three seasons, including this one, at which point the salary cap can be re-linked the HRR and rise dramatically.
In other words, it’s possible for a significant cap increase in 2024-25 season.
Just in time to back up the Brink’s truck for the best player in the world.
And for McDavid as well the following year.
Does Edm have an Analytics department?
No.
Justin Mahe works for them and hear he’s a decent enough guy, but no department.
That is surprising.
I think an Analytics Dept is essentially – as another tool in the Hockey Ops tool box.
As a guess, how many NHL teams employ a full Analytics Dept? 75%?
It varies. Some have 3 people, some have 7, some 10+.
I think 75% for something that is a fully functional department is close, maybe a bit less.
He is just aggregating the stats Tipp and maybe Holland want though, no?
I have no direct confirmation, but I suspect he’s just printing off sportslogiq reports.
My mother was born a woman but she identified as a male.
We used to kid her when ever there was news.
“This just in Ma he”
I think Loui Debrusk should be Head of Analytics. They can just go after guys with “A Shooter Mentality”
And guys that go to the Blue Paint!
I heard they had one at one point, but Chiarelli who likely didn’t listen to them laid them all off.
They had Dan Haight from Dark Horse analytics, Tyler Dellow, Michael Parkatti and S. Radcliffe.
Vancouver just cleared out a couple more hockey ops VPs today.
It will be interesting to see if Rutherford starts adding analytics hires as he rebuilds the front office,
Didnt he hire Tulsky in Carolina?
He will for sure. The team/he just fired the guy running the analytics now, he’ll bring in new people.
Decision support in corporations has moved passed in house solutions. The best in data scientist aren’t moving to Edmonton. Getting this type talent is very competitive and expensive. Our Canadian data sciences live in Melbourne.
As long as the Oilers winning percentage has them comfortably in the playoffs, Tippett is a lock to finish out the 2021-22 season as the head coach imo.
And given this franchises recent history (otherwise know as the coaching carousel) this ^ is a very good thing.
I don’t think that Tippett being fired mid-season is even a thought among Oilers management or, really, across the league’s media, executives, etc.
NURSE contract kicks in nxt season. He will earn in real $$$
$12 Mil
$10.4 Mil
$12 Mil
$10 Mil
Last 4 yrs tapers of closer to $7 Mil.
Hmmmmm ….
I get your point….. So what you’re saying is, at $5.6m Nurse will be the 2nd best value contract in Canadian Olympic history 🙂
No, he’s saying Keith is a value this year and next. 😉
haha.. 🙂
#E=MC2
I’m not overly bothered by the recent string of losses.
I watched the Boston loss and didn’t feel bad. I’m coming to the conclusion that watching hockey should and can be fun.
We’re basically contending for first place in our division after some injury woes, including our starting goalie.
The injuries are a kind of refiner’s fire. We are more certain of our weakness’s/needs (goaltending, bottom six scoring) as we are more certain of our strength’s ( Elite top end Drai, Connor, Hyman, JP, Nuge, Nurse, Ceci) and some REALLY decent prospects/rookies ( Bouchard, McLeod, Niemelainen, Broberg )
We have some potentially elite scoring in the system (Bourgault, Petrov, Savoie)
Stable management. Feels really good not to be worried sick all the time.
For Reja:
And Holloway!!!
I thought it was a really enjoyable game, other than than the result.
3 game win streak coming up
Carolina is a very tough out.
Second best defensive team in the league, giving up only 2.2 GA/G while outshooting teams by a wide margin.
Oh I know.
Followed by the Leafs.
Then CBJ.
I will hold firm none the less. 3 game win streak 🙂
Also the second best PK in the league.
Should be an epic special teams battle.
What happened to earn your ice time? Did Foegele not earn more ice for the nxt game or 2? 15 mins? 14? 16?
TIPPETT: It’s a crazy formula. Play the guys that are playing well more often
Foegele rocking a 52% CF & 94% PDO. Better results are on their way 🙂
“Man. Hello Warren Foegele!! ”
I know you thought Foegele for Bear bordered on the crime of the century,
And, maybe I’m mistaken expecting you to fight
Or maybe I’m just crazy, I don’t know wrong from right
But while I am still living, I’ve just got this to say,
It’s always up to you if you want to be that,
want to see that, want to see that way
You’re coming along! 🙂
Nope. I thought Bear for Foegele was an overpay, but said in every article I liked Foegele plenty. I did it BECAUSE I knew someone would say I didn’t like Foegele. He’s a good player.
Why do you hate Smid?
lol. I love the old favourites.
He is a really good player. Has a high g.a.s meter. Which is sorely lacking at times on this team. I have no issue with the trade whatsoever. I always though Bear would have been a solid defenceman playing further down the line up. That being said, I really don’t understand the love in for the guy. We have a good pipeline of D men and a lack of solid middle 6 guys, so we gave from a position of strength for an area of need. I don’t think this team would be any better or worse this year if Bear was still here. Great guy, decent player but not a difference maker to me. Sorry if it ruffles some feathers here. Foegle has earned the right to take Yamamoto’s spot on the second line.
On another note, can you imagine this team if everyone worked as hard as Hyman and Foegle on a nightly basis?
Foegele kinda reminds me of Ethan Moreau. I’ll take Foegele in playoff games over a lot of players who have better stats.
Guess you took me to “School” on that one. 🙂
Your record is pretty clear on liking Foegele ok…
But OP said…..
Loved that album, and the references here.
“Tear off the masks, and let’s see!”
You Sir are Fullwise !
I don’t want to trade Yamamoto. Too soon.
Some players of Yamamoto’s stature develop their scoring touch a little later than most, after they have learned the tricks and trade craft that allow them to survive in the NHL.
Yamamoto has the pre-requisite skills to be one of these players: Good hockey sense; does not shy away from the physical play/not easily intimidated; “motor” that keeps on going; and valuable PK skills.
He’s an orphan and he’s RFA next year which does not help the situation at all. But something tells me, we need to qualify this guy.
He’s going to go all Sam Bennett on some team; I’d prefer that be the Oilers.
On a team with the number 1 power play in the league how much value does Yamo’s ability to draw those PPs matter? On a team that cant score at evens drawing even half a PP per game is a massive win.
Yamo is 12th overall in the NHL in penalties drawn but that top 10 includes some knuckleheads. He’s 1 behind McDavid and his dozen is just two less than every Oiler forward who have played in our bottom 6 this year. And his pen differential is 4th overall behind McDavid and Erickson Ek
I’d like Yamamoto to be the team “Rover”.
The one guy that can play up and down the line-up as needed.
The one guy that can play anywhere from 12 to 20 minutes a night when called upon to do so.
All while killing penalties and drawing penalties in expert fashion.
And do it all with a great attitude. A team oriented attitude.
Get rid of the 30 something crowd. Keep the yutes.
Bennett is way more aggressive, way bigger, faster, and is more skilled (4th overall pick). And is a centre. Can’t see that happening.
True about Bennett.
Martin St. Louis was the same size as Yamo. Played RW. Was undrafted.
First NHL season with more than 40 pts… Age 26.
It happens
St. Louis was a freak. He and kailer might be the same height but most definitely are not the same size. St. Louis had tree trunks for legs, Kailer is pretty slight.
Kailer should probably hire his trainer and copy his regime…but then, if it works, he likely doesn’t fall over so much and draws less penalties.
https://www.nhl.com/lightning/news/martin-st-louis-flexes-muscles-photogenic-prowess-in-espn-magazine-body-shot-feature/c-665827
St. Louis lives in Greenwich CT where I used to live and I would see him often in shorts. His calves were the size of ham hocks. Just massive.
right you are 153lbs vs 180+
Size has two components, height and weight.
Yamo is NHL 5’8 (or knows how tall he actually is) there are more players that height now.
But he is really light. Probably only Ennis would be another. Caufield has 20-25 pounds on Yamo.
Is a huge obstacle to overcome. Especially given he doesn’t have an extra gear that I’ve seen. Like Nuge, good edges but not great top speed or separation step.
I think that’s why he has been struggling. He tries to play through players and that’s not happening. Keeps getting knocked down at the blue. Pushed a lot.
He needs to play around players and use shiftiness to get space. If he’s in a physical battle he’s losing it more than not. And he will get hurt.
We should keep in mind the big picture too:
Draisaitl and Yamamoto have had a 67% goal share when on the ice together over 3 season. And it’s not a one off either, each of the 3 seasons is over 60%.
Whatever they’re doing individually in those minutes, the overall result has been truly exceptional (McDavid and Draisaitl have only had a 57% goal share together over the same span, for instance).
Of course he’ll be qualified, that’s a no-brainer.
In fact, if he continues to have a poor offensive season, we are looking at a player that will likely be on a value contract next season if they can find a home for him at 3RW/PK/PP2.
He’s certainly tradable in an upgrade scenario be he definitely doesn’t need to be traded – there is definitely a role of him on this team going forwards.
If Holloway does turn in to a legit top 6 winger, Kailer can be bumped down to the 3rd line with, hopefully, a continuing to develop and improve McLeod.
I like this next season:
Holloway/McDavid/Jesse
Nuge/Drai/Hyman
Foegele/McLeod/Yamamoto
Holloway/Nuge – flip em if you want/need.
A few posts back LT went through the entire history of Edmonton Oilers moves at the deadline. It was exhaustive (exhausting? 🙂 )
Not sure what conclusion was arrived at.
But a few posts later LT posted this,
“I think we’re pretty certain to see a goalie acquired by the deadline, Marc-Andre Fleury remains the top candidate. Money retained, first-round pick, Dmitri Samorukov and Koskinen? Who knows the price tag, but Fleury is a candidate.”
I think this ^ has moved from the category of “possible” to the category of “probable”.
I think we will enter the 2021 playoffs with a 77 year old goalie.
Tandem that is 🙂
Ken Holland is on the record as this being an all in season.
Ken Holland has a proven track record with aging goalies.
Ken Holland’s gamble on Mike Smith has come up short.
Marc-Andre Fleury is likely the best goalie available at the deadline.
I think that LT has the price for Fleury exactly right. Give or take a 3rd (haha).
Chicago has no 2022 1st round pick. To get them to retain on Fleury and take Koskinen’s $4.5m will be expensive. We have the assets. Holland is going to spend the assets one way or another.
The only thing that stands in the way of this deal is another playoff contender who is in need of a goalie. Fleury has a 10 team no trade list clause. He could use it strategically to narrow the field to 4 or 5 Stanley Cup contenders. We need to hope that the number of contenders with goalie issues is small (very small). Hope Kuemper plays better etc.
Holland rolled the dice on Mike Smith and due to age / injury lost that bet. There are no mulligans; He’s going to have to roll those dice again.
It would be convenient if Holland could make the retention on Fleury include enough room for Mtl Cdns Center Mathieu Perreault $950k . Pure rental. (Derek Ryan replacement)
Career CF% 59.7 CF%Rel +12.6 FO% 50.7
Out: Koskinen $4.5m, 2022 1st, Samorukov, 2023 3rd to Mtl
In: Marc-Andre Fleury $$3.5m, Mathieu Perrault $950k
Ken Dryden is available!!
🙂 Raises the philosophical question “How old is too old?”
Ken Dryden?
#KennyGotATingle
Not to defend the signing, but has Holland actually lost the bet? There’s three quarters of the season to play yet.
Yeah. That’s fair Jimmy. It was not a costly wager. But I think the injury factor alone will have shaken Hollands confidence a little. Enough I believe that he’ll be one happy camper WHEN Smith is the backup.
Those lists are typically submitted in the summer. Though it could have been tailored as such at that time.
It’s time to end the Yamo playing on Leon’s wing. I know Yamo has a cult following but he has hands of stone and I realize he draws a lot of penalties but that’s because he’s so weak on the puck, remember Hass same thing. I know Yamo would score more playing down the line-up against softer competition. Leo needs some muscle on his line hence that will open up some space for the Magic Man.
Drop him down the lineup he could be a great 4th liner like Graves was
Especially with Baby Nuge on the other side.
Nuge is so miscast as a winger. He is essentially a better Benson without the edge.
I would bet a different coach with an open mind, not another old school type, immediately runs Nuge at 2C or 3C if Drai is at C, and switches up the wingers to get balance of skill and size through the lines and more even scoring.
I agree Yamo would be better down the roster with some bigger players
He’s skilled, but if I could get anything for him I’d move him at some point
He’s hard to fit in if he isn’t a high offense player. I want size and physicality in all my lines, but especially bottom 6
He has jam but doesn’t get a lot done because he is so light. He is essentially a teenager playing against highly physically trained men
Near the deadline I would see if the kraken had any interest in Yamo. It’s always about Connor but Leon needs a winger that can cycle and has better hands than Yamo and RNH. Holloway get your skates on and go open up some ice for Leon as well as going to the net with your stick on the ice.
Who would you target in Seattle as part of that deal? Genuinely curious.
Driedger. Slow clap….,,
Seattle is awash in bottom 6 forwards.
Cant see them giving up much for Yamamoto.
Should be a bottom 6 energy type forward
Why can most of us see this except for the anti Randy Newman’s. Tippett stubbornness is going to cost him his job and rightfully so Leon’s line should be eating up the completion. Yamo can draw just as many penalties on the 3rd line.
You know that Leon without Connor has literally never had good results save for lines with Taylor Hall and Kailer Yamamoto? You can look this stuff up.
What are you trying to say that Yamo stirs the drink for Leon. Get Leon some muscle with half decent hands and the 5 on 5 will improve drastically.
Leon-Kailer have had a 67% goal share in their time together in the NHL.
Their goal share has been over 60% all 3 years they’ve played together.
It’s essentially impossible for anyone ever to improve on their on ice results. Much less to improve on them drastically.
Whoever stirs the drink, the Oilers team results when Draisaitl-Yamamoto play together are as good as any other duo in the NHL.
Its been mentioned numerous times by people with access that Drai really likes played with Kailer.
At the same time, its becoming clear that, at least for now, Kailer isn’t producing enough to be a top 6 winger.
With that said, I don’t think that means he needs to be traded as I think he could be a big part of the team going forward as a “middle six” winger or 3RW who touches various parts of the game inluding creating PPs and playing on the PK.
Its looking like he will not be “making bank” on his next contract and he could/should be value piece in the bottom/middle six.
He could be traded given he will have real trade value but he doesn’t need to be because he’s not excelling at 2RW.
The Oilers need one more top 6 player right now – either wing (as Hyman can shift over).
This is all fine, but how do you break up a line (pairing) that’s 67% GF over 3 seasons (and over 60%GF in each of those 3 seasons) in favour of someone who might “produce enough to be a top 6 winger”?
Love the new format, you get the stories/evaluation of the individual players, while still getting the summary of the lines and pairings, without them being muddled, and without HDSC.
I say it every day, but why won’t Tippett try Hyman–RNH–Puljujarvi. That is an outscoring line if ever there was one, and it would free up Draisatl and McDavid to play together with whomever (anyone but Kassian), like Foegele at this point.
Then you run the kids Benson–Mcleod–Yamamoto, which should be fine against softer matchups, and the vets Shore–Ryan–Sceviour to soak up the rest.
Kassian can sit, I don’t see what he adds, or the upside.
As for Barrie, I know the numbers say that Nurse is just as good or better on the PP, but I don’t believe it. Nurse moves the puck slowly and awkwardly and his shot isn’t as good. I wouldn’t have signed him, but now that he is here he provides something.
Agreed.
There’s so much line shuffling that its better as individual takes
Those lines are interesting.
I’m not sure Benson-McLeod-Yamamoto would actually be ‘fine’ but wouldn’t be opposed to giving them a chance.
An alternative could be:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Benson-McLeod-Foegele
(or of course the current Foegele-McLeod-Kassian, which is having some success).
Yeah, this was my first iteration of this idea. But I was following the hue and cry of moving Yamamoto down and Foegele up.
The curious part of me wants to try Marody with Benson and Mcleod, but I know that will never happen.
Well,
My students finished their final exam with about 2 minutes left in the 2nd period, so instead of rolling home, I set up my laptop and watched the third period while I marked. Suffice to say, the results of my teaching have been better than Tippet’s coaching lately.
A couple observations;
-Markus Niemelainen looks pretty good out there. He uses his size well and knows his strength. Still pretty raw, but more minutes down in Bakersfield will help.
-Anyone got an injury report for Russel, and if he’s gone, will Broberg be back?
-Hate to dump on him as much as everyone, but Kassian looks horrible. You couldn’t even tell he was on the ice. He isn’t touching the puck because, a) He isn’t pursuing and chasing down pucks enough to get a touch, b) His line as a whole isn’t that great c) His line mates don’t trust him with the puck and thus won’t pass it to him.
-The team played better last night and deserved better. Some games you just don’t get the bounces.
-Reffing is so horrible.
If we are doing a hypothetical coaching change and looking at available veteran coaches, as that is likely where Holland would be focusing, what about hiring Claude Julien for the remainder of the season and keeping GG on specials?
If anything happens it’ll either be Gully or Woody. Because it’s easier. They’ll claim stability, total BS.
For me, while thinking Tipp isn’t right for this group, I don’t see value or difference from n bringing in another old school coach who won’t bring anything new
Right now the best coach Q is on the sidelines, and the second best coach Trotz is at the end of contract. Those two I jump.
Babcock is fishing in Sask, I’m not sure about him. He has a nice coaching resume, but I don’t want him and Holland trying to recreate the Wings.
Those days are over and gone, we need to trade in the Lincoln Town Car for a Tesla. Forward thinking.
Holland is valuable to the Oilers org. He can hire a more progressive and better deal making GM and step back to POHO, provide the stable leadership.
I like Tipp, he could have a role in the org, but if he wants to coach, in the summer I’d have a look around.
I imagine there are many coaches looking at two misused superstars and quality youth and licking their chops, even those currently employed.
Probably a few GMs too. Rutherford would have been nice in Edmonton. Level headed and not afraid to make moves, gets them right a lot, and is good at trades. Also in getting draft picks back. The Oilers burn those for staff marshmallow roasts.
Aquilini made a good move, if he can keep his gleepers off the team.
I will say it each and every time. Mike Babcock is a terrible coach and I would never ever want him to be the coach of my hockey team. The Leafs were terrible under him and hardly improved, plus the way he has treated his players from Commodore to Marner to Chelios to Modano, and the countless other stories I haven’t even heard of.. There is no world I would want Babcock to be the coach in Edmonton.
I was trying to be diplomatic, I agree. That type of coach is quickly disappearing from the league. Again we don’t need a Lincoln, we need a Tesla.
I forgot to add, one of the many reasons bully coaches don’t work now is because an older NHL player is a millenial. The ones coming up a further step removed from the old ways. There is a generational difference that is too vast to overcome now.
Today’s players grew up in the post Slapshot hockey world. Not your stereotype farm kid pond hockey types, but hockey academy types with wealthier parents.
My nephew was drafted to the WHL, and hearing from my BIL how things work now was quite a surprise. They don’t have that kind of coin, so are hoping for he can earn a scholarship to an academy, so he has a better chance to make the WHL, and his NHL dream has at least a long shot. Apparently even more of almost no chance otherwise.
No crying on the bench at the outdoor rink because your feet are so cold, dying for you next shift to warm up, snot frozen to your face for today’s kids. Ah, the good old days.
2 of the 3 head coaches Holland hired in Detroit had no previous NHL head coaching experience.
Even Babcock only had 2 years experience (with the Ducks) prior to joining the Red Wings. Tippett is far and away the most experienced head coach he has ever hired.
This recent spell of play was exactly why I wanted to pass on signing Nugent-Hopkins and would have tried for Danault.
Me as well
Holland got some decent players, but he is not a horse trader and overpays always
I am not impressed with his ability with roster building. He has improved player quality (while capstringing himself) but players can win games, teams win championships
As a team I don’t like the mix. They are too vanilla. It’s why they are flat all the time. There is no spark. Hyman and Foegele are great grinding forecheckers, but neither are mean or are solid finishers or fiery. JP is not aggressive or mean, also not a great finisher.
The group has Skill but no finishers. Few aggressive players.
Also, Nuge and Yamo can’t both be in the top 6. Neither are scorers, neither are that quick (which smaller players have to be IMO). Good edges, no separation gear.
Holland is in a pickle up front because he also handed out the trade protection with the overpays. At least he didn’t with Barrie.
While Danault is a good player, he wanted more playing time and being 3C wasn’t going to do it.
Plus there is value in retaining players and rewarding loyalty.
Danault has acknowledged he is keeping the 2C spot warm for Quinton Byfield in Los Angeles.
Had he signed in Edmonton, the Oilers would have the option to load up the 1st line more regularly.
DNB with a fabulous interview with Ethan Bear.
https://theathletic.com/3008099/2021/12/10/ethan-bear-is-rising-above-and-thinking-big-i-wanted-to-make-a-difference/?source=user_shared_article
Thanks for that.
Pretty clear that Bear didn’t ask for a trade.
From the piece:
He missed the game in Calgary last night with an injury.
Hope he can play tomorrow.
He missed the game in Calgary last night with non-Covid illness, not injury.
Makes me wonder.
Bear says he didn’t ask for a trade, but was almost relieved to be traded.
Maybe Holland thought he was doing Bear a solid. That’s the only rational for the trade that makes any sense to me.
Yeah, Bear didn’t ask for a trade, but I bet he was glad to be out of Edmonton. He’s just too polite to say as doing so, would mean the racist pricks would have won. He took the high road and proved what a wonderful human being he is.
In my time, I’ve played this scenario and played this game far too many times. There are battles to be fought, but the reality is, it just gets tiring and you begin to wonder if it’s worth it all, just to play a game.
When racism hits, you question your very core of who you are and the reality is, you start to doubt yourself. Your confidence dips, and you are feeling less than human, which was the original goal of racists to begin with.
How many times was I called a squaw humper, drunk, lazy, welfare bum, and listened to that supposed “war cry”, while on the ice, or even behind the bench? Let’s say far too many times and enough to literally make me ignore it to the point that others around me have to point out it is happening. It just becomes part of your normal existence. You get used to being called “Chief”, and try to live up to your role of being tough and a good checker. Where does it stop?
Well, this morning when I dropped my daughter off at her school, there was a drumming circle to welcome the students in and my daughter was given a drum and drummed along with all the other students, students of all different colours and creeds, and at a French Immersion school no less. It reminded me that in my past career, I worked in that very school district fighting hard to get people to listen to the stories of my experiences in navigating the education system and trying to get people to realize that what kept Indigenous communities strong, was good for all kids. I left the district, because it felt like I wasn’t making a difference, but today, all the BS I put up with, felt worth it to see all those kids singing and drumming. Something that was illegal for my grandmother to do, and something I was made ashamed to do.
I see guys like Ethan Bear and his experiences and it makes me proud, but I also realize there is a long way to go in our journey of reconciliation. I’m sad he’s gone and I’m sad that his former team mates don’t get to hear his story. It’s the type of story that is inspiring and life changing.
Thanks for listening.
That’s a wonderful post. Thanks for sharing, CC.
Great Post Coach!
We are listening. We are hearing you.
“I do not pretend to understand the moral universe; the arc is a long one, my eye reaches but a little ways; I cannot calculate the curve and complete the figure by the experience of sight; I can divine it by conscience. And from what I see I am sure it bends towards justice. ” Martin Luther King Jr.
I like to think that Ethan Bear is in a better place. I like to hope that we will all be part of a better future.
Lead on Coach, lead on.
You know what’s crazy Coach (or maybe not) ? I’m not an Indigenous person. And Ethan Bear makes me proud.
This sort of implies that the racism that Bear experienced was prevalent in Edmonton, and that the ‘better place’ doesn’t have a racist population. Racism is rampant in the Carolinas.
In my experience, I find Americans more sympathetic to the plight of Indigenous people, not withstanding tear gassing elders and children in North Dakota. Sure he’ll face it in North Carolina, but the hair trigger reaction last spring was off the charts.
Thanks for that Ben
Thanks for sharing this CC.
Really sorry that you experienced that man. No human should. It’s not right. It’s not okay. We can be so cruel, humans. Me included.
So glad for your daughter that it is getting better.
I’d love to say that I can stand here blameless when talking about racism, but I have been racist towards others in my life, and it is not right. I feel safe talking about this kind of thing here at Lowetide, because even though we can disagree about our fave team, it really is a safe place for me. I thank each and every one of you for that.
Ditto on line one. Not sure how I could effectively communicate that fact on this board, nor what affect it would have.
That was lovely, thank you.
I hear Torts might be available.
*runs*
Oh my, can you just imagine? Torts with the stopwatch making sure 97 shuts his mouth and plays equal time with the other centres?
Torts is the only celebrity coach available, no?
Scotty Bowman.
Laviolette and Trotz are my pics but unavalable.
Tho he burns thru every roster he’s given, legit curious what he’d do through 1-2 seasons behind Oilers bench.
Was there supposed to be a graph? Your chart, though, doesn’t do it for me at all. It tells no story, everything wrapped into xGF, a number I don’t use and find to be largely meaningless except when painting with a very wide brush and we are using samples of 10-20 minutes here.
I know xGF has its fans. I am not one of them. Models often tell you more about the assumptions of those who made them than they do reality.
Data is always better. The rawer the better. Then people can draw their own conclusions and argue over the narrative, rather than having it imposed on them.
Much rather see the events than have the events hidden in one “tell-all” number.
xGF% is just corsi weighted by shot type and location based on the shot type and location of 14 seasons of goals.
Corsi is just unblocked shot attempts.
Tippett referenced shot attempts in the post game.
Its just a “flow of play” metric.
It seems to take into account SCG and HDSCG as well though, so appears to have an element of the final result baked in there.
I’m not sure if it always did, but it seems to these days. Check out Puljujarvi for example, his xGF% is 59.56% but all the other measures are 57% or below. The only ones higher are GF% – 61 and HDGF% – 74.
The other concern with it for me is how funky it can be in small samples. I’ve seen periods of Oilers games where the xGF% is higher or lower than any of the other metrics. Maybe the SCG/HDSCG account for the difference since they aren’t listed on the game sheets, but that still seems to miss the spirit of ‘expected’.
Please correct if I’m mis-interpreting anything, but I’m not on board with xGF any longer either (prefer just the corsi, shots, SC and HDSC).
That was a good and fun game last night. The Oilers were the better team in my opinion and deserved standings points. It happens. That will turn around soon, of that I’m fairly confident.
That is the Warren Foegele the Oilers acquired and we saw that player early in the year. Even without cashing (which he will if he plays like that), he creates chaos, energy, momentum, etc. We need that player nightly.
Tyson Barrie did have a very tough night – this was reflected in his 5 on 5 ice time which was the lowest I believe but he still get the offensive chances in important situations – I thought that was a coaching blunder.
I said before that game that its time for Nuge and/or Yamo to produce at 5 on 5. Posts and cross-bars are fun but not good enough. We need these two at 5 on 5, at least one of them.
You write better than the coaches seem to be coaching lately.
Notice that Tippett is taking to more frequent direct criticism of Bouchard over Barrie.
We’ve seen this show before with Bear and Barrie. I didn’t like it then, and don’t like it now.
Bouchard is our best regular D, and just as Bear saved Tipp two years ago, Bouchard is doing it now.
My suggestion is to ignore Tipp’s comments. My other suggestion is to consider whether this coach — ruiner of our chance at a 5-10 year cost-controlled, all situations D core — should be anywhere near Broberg and Samorukov.
Do you mean that he criticized Bouchard in the postgame? (I didn’t watch).
Whatever was said, I still think Tippett is aware Bouchard is the more complete player and the Bouch/Barrie usage is more about:
1) managing Bouchard’s minutes and progression (I wouldn’t want him playing 25+ minutes a night right now, personally)
2) Managing the players he has to get the best out of Barrie and Bouch (even though Bouch could do many of the things Barrie is being asked to)
Come playoff time I expect Bouchard will be on the top pair.
Yes, he specifically called out Bouchard. Russell the game before gets bodied like he’s a piece of paper, no comment from Tippett. Barrie with a horrible game, no comment from Tippett.
That’s too bad. I’ll have to watch the postgame later this evening.
He was talking specifically about the one goal against when he “criticized Bouch” – he said he got beat out of the corner, which he did – he also spoke to the other poor plays that led to the goal.
Thanks, I will watch. Still have not.
That’s a tell. He sees the potential in Bouchard. Russell and Barrie are all they’re ever going to be, and less than they ever were.
Tippett’s no fool.
Missed the game, but glad to hear they played well. I think they have played pretty well in all 4 of the losses – really any of them could have at least contributed a Bettman. It’s good for the team to go through this. We knew they would at some point. Get them more engaged.
I posted earlier this week about how efficient World Rugby is at using the TMO (television match official). And there were two great opportunities last night to employ this technology coupled with a clear decision making flow chart and language.
*Hyman’s boarding of Foligno. TMO presses a button, Mr. Referee that was boarding, 2mins, Foligno still gets the 2 for the business after. Both teams go ok. Imagine if this was applied to the Toronto-Winnipeg game on Sunday.
*Debrusk goal. TMO presses a button. Mr. Referee there was a trip that led directly to the goal. Goal is waved off and a 2min minor shall be assessed. Note to poster last night this was absolutely tripping 56 beat his man clean behind the net and had a step on his check, he did not step on an errant stick.
These reviews will take maybe a minute or two and will ensure the calls are correct (like they do on offside/high stick/goalie interference goals). The players will learn and the game experience will be improved.
That won’t work because there are just too many borderline infractions in hockey, where do you draw the line? What might work is that there can be a coaches challenge on any play they want, similar to the CFL. You are allowed only one and if you loose it a 2 minute penalty. I am sure Tippett would of used it on the Debrusk goal.
I don’t watch rugby too much, but are you saying there are no borderline infractions in the sport? All sports have borderline infractions. It’s what keeps us on here moaning and complaining about the officiating.
As crazy coach alluded to there are minor infractions in rugby and in all invasive team sports. But what they’ve done in Rugby is review all scoring plays that are not crystal clear or there was an infraction leading up to it (accidental obstruction/forward pass) and then review any form of head contact as a measure to improve player safety… this being huge to grow the game with concerned parents. The same can be done in hockey… Use an off ice official to flag any head contacts or state they should have a look at a play leading up to a goal. Or as you stated they could expand what is reviewable within a coaches challenge. I just think they have the resources to do it right instead they half ass it.
I still think he stepped on an errant stick, but we can disagree.
Agree to disagree. #whalesvagina
I have been to San Diego. Wonderful weather.
Haha, you beat me to it!
You’re both right.
He did step on an errant stick. But that stick was in his feet, so that’s a trip. All day long.
The replay on the Boston feed (not sure the Oilers feed showed the same one, it was from above the glass on the opposite side of the ice) showed the Boston defenders stick to Yamamoto’s left.
It was obviously close enough that he stepped on it, but it wasn’t at all ‘in his feet’ like is the case on most of these tripping calls. That said, even if 100% unintentional (as I thought it was), a penalty call is still made much of the time in that situation.
Without saying so, because many are not willing to go there (just yet), people
are starting to question the man that signed Zack Kassian and Tyson Barrie.
Kassian – 4 years / 3.2 million per. ( signed 2020)
Barrie – 3 years / 4.5 million per. ( 2021 ink still wet)
Fingers crossed on 40 year old Mike Smith getting heathy.
I don’t believe for a second Barrie has any real trade value.
Nobody was eager to sign him in the off season and his D play is getting worse. He is probably the third best option on the PP at this point.
It’s not clear that you can trust him to play third pairing minutes at evens in the regular season. What are you going to do in the playoffs?
How do we know that he had no interest in the offseason? He didn’t make it to free agency.
Barrie would be extreme value to this team if we didn’t have a defenseman that essentially replaces his skill set while offering more on the defensive side. Some team would certainly love to have a Barrie.
In last year’s playoffs, he was awful in game one but settled down and played pretty well in the final three games.
Vs Winnipeg at 5v5
Barrie on 4GF-2GA
Barrie off 2GG-7GA
I don’t recall what it was like last year, but holy cow, he can’t turn at all this year. We’ve seen him blow a tire how many times and even when he’s not stumbling he’s very slow to pivot. Maybe that’s why he’s always trying to pinch/cheat – he knows he’ll get blown by on the outside
I don’t believe this at all. Teams with awful PPs would be very interested in Barrie. The Islanders could use some help there and Trotz would probably have him playing decent defense. The Habs could use him. Plenty of teams with crappy PPs would be interested.
You identified two teams that are likely to be sellers very soon…they won’t want Barrie.
That’s not necessarily true. Barrie is signed, he’s not a rental. Hockey trades happen.
I mentioned yesterday.
Gostisbehere who is 28, was packaged with a 2nd and 7th, to move 2 years of his $4.5m contract.
Based on that, it’s hard to say the Barrie contract is tradable.
Before that (during the offseason) I had mentioned that Ken could have been more creative.
He could have taken the Ghost and the 2nd and 7th.
Not signed Barrie in turn. Not traded for America runs on Duncan.
Nurse – Bouche
Ghost – Bear
Jones – Ceci
Now you’d have our encumbered 2/3 draft pick, and extra 2nd and 7th from Philly along with cap space for some forwards.
That wouldn’t be a playoff caliber d, but you’d have two seconds to shop at the deadline.
The Ghost can at least skate well.
Umm the Jones guy that can’t stay in the line up in Chicago. He would likely be in the minors there if his brother didn’t have some pull.
Barrie has been more productive D than Ghost and is 20 lbs heavier. Which matters to a lot of GMs
He is shorter than average but the guy is a tank. He just doesn’t like contact. If he wanted to he could hold his ground and box out.
Niems is 7” taller and listed at 190, but I think has gained some, Barrie listed at 197.
He could also hit like a truck, doesn’t want to. It upsets the Beibs.
Jessie “Hot Potato” Puljujarvi limited offensive skill is clearly notable and results in McDavid needing to work harder on every shift. Dishing the puck as soon as it hits his stick and then standing in front of the net is not a recipe for success. In 1970 Phil Esposito days, sure, but not today. He is a third line winger and expecting more is not going to happen.
Well a good portion of his goals have been the result of him streaking down the wing and slapping it behind the goalie, so forgive me if I’m not convinced. Also Ryan Smyth made a nice career much more recently by essentially doing the same.
Are you saying he shouldn’t try to hit 97 in full stride with a quick pass breaking out of the zone?
For sure. You definitely don’t score goals being in front of the net….
Al,
Would you please tell your dog to stop posting nonsense😉
Congratulations on being the worst poster on the board.
and that’s no easy task ;)…
Dave Tippett # 128
Everyone knows Zack Kassian has been floating and he has been floating for quite some time now.
The fans know it.
Local media knows it
His Teammates know it.
What conditions need to be met for Dave to scratch Zack Kassian?
And why the timeout with 45 seconds left to let Boston catch their breath?
I’m guessing the reason for the timeout wasn’t to let Boston catch their breath.
Lol😉
Because the Oilers needed to catch their breaths?
Someone better to replace him?
It’s not a high bar.
That was definitely a game we deserved to win, but it also felt a lot like the 2020 playoff series with Chicago where we got bounced pretty handily. I don’t know how to describe it other than “goals come way too easy for them and way too hard for us”.
Well put.
-7 at evens is just ghastly. Man.
I think the results will turn around but remain unconvinced that this can be an elite team.
A couple of big challenges coming up in the Canes and Leafs. Good EV clubs. Let’s see how they do.
On a team with Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid….-7 at evens is criminal.
If you were asking for feedback on your use of numbers in the “next day post game article”, I absolutely adore the format you’ve used for years. I’ve watched the game and know what my eyes tell me but then I get to come here and see if the numbers back it up. Perhaps over to Cult to get the game grades, but really only worth it if Bruce is writing.
Anyway, that’s how I digest the games so one vote for keeping it going.
Or Ira! If Bruce or Ira are writing I’ll read. One of the other guys just scores everyone between 4-6 and writes random notes.
puck bounced off stick
grade A in second
good hit in third
I prefer the old way to this way too. Literally everything is better than this way.
Last night’s performance, coupled with tomorrow nights opponent means it is time for Foegele to get his shot in the top 6.
Foegele McDavid Puljujarvi
Nuge Draisaitl Hyman
Benson McLeod Yamamoto
Shore Sceviour Kassian
Plus it will save Holland’s blushes (for one night) on a trade he clearly lost.
I don’t have a lot of faith in that third line, but I agree that’s probably our optimal forward configuration with the guys we currently have.
Why. Benson Marody, and Yamamoto were a dominant AHL 1st line. Benson, McLeod, and Marody were a dominant AHL 1st line.
Benson-McLeod-Marody were shite in the pre-season, FWIW.
Even going back to the 2019 rookie camp and pre-season, Benson-Marody played together and those AHL results didn’t translate. At all.
Maybe it would be different going forward, but there’s lots of reason not to have faith.
I did not suggest that Marody should be called up or be on the line.
The common denominators there are Benson and Marody. What is one to deduce?
I like the looks of this lineup, but I would leave the 4th line intact, and sit Kassian. He needs a wake-up call.
I’m surprised actually that there wasn’t more vitriol after the loss last night.