The 50-man list is the quickest way to get an idea about what the future may hold for an NHL team. On the day Connor McDavid was signed, Edmonton’s 50-man list was one of the most valuable in the league, and that’s before factoring in Leon Draisaitl.
This year’s 50-man is unique because it’s not 50 men. Not close as a matter of fact. That’s going to change. Right?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s first full NHL season a learning experience
- Lowetide: Analyzing Cody Ceci’s importance to the Edmonton Oilers and future deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
- DNB: Oilers turn to Markus Niemelainen
- Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ prospect pipeline has produced 2 call-ups on defence this season. Who’s next?
- DNB: What I think and what I know about the Oilers through their first 20 games
- Lowetide: How promising is the Oilers’ Russian prospect pool?
- DNB: Could Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals in 50 games?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers most pressing needs have changed since the offseason
- DNB: Tales from the days Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson were minor league roommates
- DNB: For Emily Cave, Colby’s widow, a trip back to Boston is about memories, love and legacy
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
50-MAN LIST (45)
- Goalies (6): Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner, Mike Smith (ir), Alex Stalock (ir), Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue
- Left Defense (9): Darnell Nurse, Markus Niemelainen, William Lagesson, Philip Broberg, Duncan Keith (ir), Kris Russell (ir), Slater Koekkoek (ir), Dmitri Samorukov, Oscar Klefbom (ir)
- Right Defense (6): Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, Evan Bouchard, Filip Berglund, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring
- Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, Derek Ryan, Tim Soderlund, Seth Griffith
- Left Wing (10): Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Warren Foegele, Devin Shore, Tyler Benson, Brendan Perlini, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Ostap Safin, Matvey Petrov
- Right Wing (8): Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian, Colton Sceviour, Kyle Turris, Josh Archibald, Cooper Marody, Tyler Tullio
UFA’s on this list are Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Kris Russell, Kyle Turris, Colton Sceviour, Josh Archibald, Seth Griffith.
RFA’s are Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Tyler Benson, Markus Niemelainen, William Lagesson, Tim Soderlund, Ostap Safin, Brendan Perlini, Cooper Marody, Dmitri Samorukov and Filip Berglund.
That’s seven UFA, 12 RFA. There are 26 names who are slated to return, 19 who may or may not return. It’s already Ken Holland’s team but the summer will put a stamp on it.
LOGICAL SUMMER LIST (34)
- Goalies (4): Stuart Skinner, Mike Smith, Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue
- Left Defense (8): Darnell Nurse, Markus Niemelainen, William Lagesson, Philip Broberg, Duncan Keith, Slater Koekkoek, Dmitri Samorukov, Oscar Klefbom (ir)
- Right Defense (6): Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, Evan Bouchard, Filip Berglund, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring
- Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, Derek Ryan, Dylan Holloway
- Left Wing (7): Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Warren Foegele, Devin Shore, Tyler Benson, Raphael Lavoie, Matvey Petrov
- Right Wing (4): Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian, Tyler Tullio
Holland and Tyler Wright have some nice forwards who will join Dylan Holloway, Tyler Tullio and Matvey Petrov next season, including Xavier Bourgault, Carter Savoie and Maxim Berezkin. I think we’ll see plenty of college, CHL and AHL free agents signed next summer, too.
HYMAN
The big news today, from an Oilers point of view, will be Hyman’s health. It didn’t look good, and shoulders could be two months at the outside. I think the Foegele-McLeod-Kassian line was coming into view recently, but if Hyman is hurt it’s likely Foegele moves up the depth chart. An absolute hammer that Hyman is hurt.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll spend the entire show talking about the state of the Oilers, taking your text and tweets, and discussing the situation with Jason Gregor at 11. We’ll have Crossfire at 10:20, specifically focused on the coach. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Have up until now believed Tippett was competent to get the job done, but if the non stars keep failing its got to be on coaching. Because if its on management we’re all fucked.
Ten years ago for management coaching I would have wanted the dynasty players Gretzky/Messier/Kurri/Coffey/Fuhr/Anderson/Lowe/MacT to form some kind of cooperative to run the team either up or down and Hell you could possibly get Slats to act as unofficial advisor which tells you the low level of my thinking. Messier was desperate to coach and now that ship has sailed as they’re all old men.
As things stand: the team is reeling and suddenly its as if that poor old Blackhawk that 80% of Lowetide lamented trading for is missed a whole lot more than advertised.
PS: Too many down votes for this post from assholes and I will fire up the Death March Updates.
Lol, an in-season Death March seems appropriate (when will this streak end?!).
Thinking about the forwards with McDavid/Draisaitl off. What about the D?
Remember that all are small sample sizes under 200 minutes (I didn’t include anyone under 50 min).
GF% 29-97 off:
Nurse 22.2%
Bouchard 14.3%
Keith 37.5%
Ceci 42.1%
Russell 28.6%
Barrie 30.0%
Koekkoek 14.3%
Broberg 20.0%
It’s ordered sort of by pairs so it looks like junk. Surprised at the numbers (though small sample).
With Fs vs D, it’s almost like a chicken or the egg paradox with respect to GF%. Fs get a lot of scrutiny (especially Cs, though deservedly so) but I believe that a shakey backend ripples through the entire team. This league’s skill baseline has risen significantly the past decade and a D-corps that can’t reliably skate and pass through the neutral zone tilts that Gf% downward. This stands to reason that hockey is becoming more and more a puck management and possession game across all zones given the recent success of smaller, more puck-talented D (Makar, Fox, McAvoy, etc).. Without a multitalented D, how can we expect anything upstream to perform?
If only hockey were like football where the scope of each position is narrow and easier to measure. In hockey, the output has a flow process behind it rather than a sum-of-the-parts model with many other sports. I see this as a significant reason why faceoff% doesn’t often correlate with win%.
Agree it’s definitely a chicken or egg type thing, and not so simple to suss out.
Its official, Petrov is left off of Team Russia.
A grand total of zero Russians playing in North America on this year’s team – including a couple that were on the team last year.
Per Pronman.
Scott Wheeler
@scottcwheeler
·
32m
Here is Team Russia’s final roster for the World Juniors.
Notably absent: The entire North American pool. Yan Kuznetsov (returnee/CGY), Daniil Chayka (returnee/VGK), Daniil Gushchin (SJS), Matvey Petrov (EDM). A disservice to each of those kids and the country’s medal hopes.
Scott Wheeler
@scottcwheeler
·
5m
Here’s Flag of Russia head coach Sergei Zubov on the zero North American players: “We were watching Yan Kuznetsov and Daniil Chayka, but we came to the conclusion that the players who have been training with us here in Russia are stronger defensively. The strongest players have been picked.”
Yeah…. What’s the likelihood that not 1 player in NA was honestly not good enough? Are they attempting to dissuade future prospects from leaving?
Typical Russian crap. Canada often does the same to NCAA kids, unless they’re Jonathan Toews. Real political stuff to pull on teenagers.
On more plus of a potential Hyman absence tomorrow is more Jesse on PP1 – I like him better on the PP1 than Hyman (and I think the numbers do as well).
JP was awesome on Line 1 and they probably took him off to see if he could produce off of it(he can’t).
This is for JP who’s an awesome poster here.
https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2021/12/13/which-teams-have-built-around-their-stars-the-best-and-worst/
I stole the link from a Woodguy tweet.
I can’t help but include this quote from the article:
Then there is the one team even worse than all of them in Edmonton. It is a testament to McDavid and Draisaitl that this team is even remotely competitive because that bottom-six is, quite literally, the worst in the NHL, and not by a small margin either.
It’s almost saying it is time to trade one of the two for a handful of good players.
The problem isn’t the players they have cycled dozens through
Its who is directing the coaching hires and fires
Eakins is eating tippets lunch. Think about that.
Renney wouldn’t bend over for the star treatment for a few punk kids that weren’t doing things right.
I think Torts is a butthead, but he called MCD’s play out and he’s right.
Time to stop jailbreaks and getting too frustrated and play the game that exists. Two ways and dominate.
The league sucks, the refs suck, the owners suck, Bettman sucks. Daly is ok because he smiled when he turned the Golden Card over.
We all have to deal with the cards we are dealt. Most of us don’t have squarish sterile metallic hotel themed bunkers to live in either.
Although I like 50’s and some 60’s architecture. Straight lines.
So based on an article whose main point is that when McDavid and Draisatl are not on the ice the Oilers they get outscored 13-32 (this year) 42-82 since 20-21, and your conclusion is that Tortorella is right and that McDavid has to change the way he plays?
That is some magic reasoning.
McD cheats for offense, a lot.
I have no problem with that, if his line is constructed to accommodate.
We all watch the games, McD blows coverage a lot defensively and it’s in the net. He’s still the best offensive player in the world. Drai is the best forward overall currently becaues he dominates all game states usually. It’s ok to notice Connor’s deficiencies, he’s not a perfect player.
Torts was wrong about him shutting up, right in that if he wants to win deep, he has to be less leaky. Just like Yzerman, Crosby had to. Loads of others. Not a new thing for the uber talented forward.
The thing about bunkers is, sooner or later the guards take over.
Said it two years ago.
This ain’t going to work.
Say trade Draisaitl like some Leaf poster offered. Take 4 second rate players 1 of whom gets injured straight off, another one’s wife hates Edmonton, and Oilers end up with a pair of middling players who need big raises as now they move up to star batting order Agent fodder.
And this:
The big takeaway from this should be this: If your team does not have balance throughout its lineup, and if it does not have players that can pick up the slack and remain competitive when your two best players are not on the ice, your chances of success disappear almost entirely.
As it relates to this season, it should give you at least some optimism if you are a fan of one of those top teams. And if you are an Edmonton fan, well, you better hope the front office has some magic moves ahead.”
“front office has some magic moves ahead”– I am sure they do. Not the good kind.
Then who and how the heck did this sorry state of affairs ever come to be??
Asking for a friend.
Wow what an absolute Damning indictment;
The players can’t piss a drop, bleed out goals like its a kill floor & the “fans” or sorry “experts” think coach Tippett is fucking problem?
Get Bent!
Yet the Hawks and Dys turn immediately around with the same players
Blues, Pens 2 Cups. Devils in the past. Teams that are close have often made a change as the ‘successful’ existing coach was at a roadblock
Really it is a simple question. Is it that every player sucks after we acquire them, or what other reason is there that this team cannot play well where it matters most?
And why can other teams be dramatically different simply by changing the coach?
What a depressing read. The Katz years have me really missing the EIGLP. Katz has no interest in winning and no interest in innovation.
The EIG cared about winning so little they ran Sather off over petty squabbling. I don’t even want to get into not ponying up some cash to keep what was actually one hell of a team together…
Thats the team Lowe+MacT eventually parlayed for a 2006 failed cup run.
Heh, thanks for that. It really is something isn’t it?
Trade Bear for a high end 3rd liner (if not a good trade, at least a good bet to help the bottom 6). Add Ryan, who I’m convinced was at least a decent bet, even if you disagree.
And… the bottom 6 gets even worse year over year.
If you deploy average-to-worse bottom 6 players with garbage defenders, the expected output is not impossible to predict.
Keep blaming the bottom 6. Have a look at the bottom 2 defence pairings too.
I don’t think the bottom 6F/4D personnel are worse year over year, though this is a good reminder that some do.
Keith’s return should make a material difference to the defensive group including helping move the puck out of the zone and allowing the likes of Niemelainen to play true 3rd pairing (and sheltered) minutes.
Yes, hopefully.
Bingo, look at the D. Last year Larsson was in charge when the bottom 6 F we’re on. Ceci is great but I don’t think the deployment is the same. Barrie + random 7D + bottom 6 with low minutes is not a recipe for success. When our 2LD, 3LD is filled properly the story should improve. How much is the question.
Larsson without McDavid or Draisaitl:
Last season 39.4%GF
And in 19-20 38.5%GF
I’m beginning to wonder if the IOC and/or China are trying to make the Covid rules so stringent as to deter Professional athletes from attending the games. Putting financials aside, would China not benefit in the medal count from Professional hockey and curling teams (and others) staying away?
The problem is that we could send over Cdn contingent full of all star beer league’rs that would still beat the Chinese National Hockey team
That’s what they said about playing England in the 1930s.
Too bad Taiwan isn’t going.
Silver linings.
When Mike Smith got injured we got a real good look at just what we have in Skinner. This is something we needed to know and would not have seen or known if Smith was healthy.
When Nurse, Keith, Ceci and Koekkoek all go down with injuries, not only to we get to see what Niemelainen, Broberg, and Lagesson can do on the big club, we also get to see what Samorukov and others can do with more playing time and more responsibility in Bakersfield.
Similarly, if Hyman is out for a game or two, we get to see what Warren Foegele looks like playing along side élite skill. Otherwise Foegele is permanently locked into 3rd line duties. And vice-versa, we may get to see what Kailer looks like on 3rd line with less minutes.
This ^ has significant value. Especially when you open the season with 15-5 record.
When Smith is back in the next week or so, we get a good long look at Smith prior to the trade deadline.
P.S. Mike Smith may have a bigger effect on 5v5 goal differential than any other player on the team. Both by stopping more shots, and by enabling us to move the puck out of our end with greater efficiency.
and Benson with “some skill” on the 3rd line with McLeod and Kassian – at least two big guys that can skate including one that can lug the puck.
I like this silver.
Just dropped in – have not read the thread.
Anybody notice the stale offence? Of course you have. Yamamoto is scared of the puck right now. He gets it and gives it away whether the receiving player is ready or not. Needs confidence for sure.
And Carolina offence, they come in and they all “do something” Hold up, jinking right or left, make space. The open man does the same, he moves, looks for ice, changes angles.
Here comes the Oilers …..wait for it……strait down the boards and button hook, look for defenceman. Open man continues in a straight line, covered, no ability to create space.
Ouch
Okay Tippett all those things we were tellin you to do when you were winning? Don’t listen to us. Go back to what you were doing k
Carolina is coached to have a plan of attack. At least the players don’t have to think, they just take the play option open and keep skating for clean ice or to get the puck back.
The Oilers cycle, but they don’t have plays to the slot enough. To an open guy moving in like JP’s last goal from Connor. The guys that can’t shoot don’t have any change of angle, feint, find a screen, look off or anything.
Not too many players can just straight up beat a decent NHL goalie in position. It leads to them shooting wide bcs they know they can’t likely beat them clean I think.
Also outside of the PP they don’t get enough tries at moving the puck across seam to a guy with a lane to get the goalie moving. Sure gets done to them a lot.
If they did what the PP and PK do (when they are playing well) 5v5 they would be devastating, and the 5v5 GA would go down I’m sure.
The Oilers had a ton of grade A chances against Carolina and Boston. They just need to convert those.
I think someone mentioned looking for a RW as much as a left. What about McDavids old teammate Connor Brown from Ottawa.
Ottawa is moving out older guys to make room for youth . Signed for next year. Solid two way winger.
Move out Kassian anywhere to clear cap. Or include him in deal with a pick or prospect. Pushes Yamamoto to 3rd line which is much more suited to him today.
Jim Rutherford with his first media availability in Vancouver today.
Indicates he wants to move out older players in exchange for younger versions.
JT Miller would be a perfect fit for the Oilers…just under a PPG, plays both special teams…plays both left wing and centre…53.7% on face-offs.
The price would be dear including a 1st round pick and likely a top defensive prospect but the Oilers have to be in “win now” mode
He would be an excellent acquisition. What contract are Canucks taking on in a hypothetical trade?
Koskinen, who could be flipped at the deadline, and Yamamoto balance the cap.
I’m not sure they would be excited about Yamamoto but if a 1st and, say, one of Broberg or Samorukov were included they might listen.
A 1st plus Broberg for 1.5 years of Miller is too much. Agree that he would be a good fit.
Wasn’t Miller just the perfect acquisition for the Nucks????
They could use RD, that’s for sure, but they aren’t going to take Barrie (or Kassian) back so…..
Based on deadline prices the last few years, I do not think Miller would fetch much more than a 1st. He would be a great addition.
Miller is signed for one more season so deadline prices aren’t really all that informative (at least deadline prices for rentals, which is the vast majority of deadline deals).
I think that Miller would fetch a first straight up for a team that could fit him in. A first and Broberg is WAY too much though without an extension in place (which couldn’t be signed until the summer).
Right. My mistake. I had it in my head that he was UFA.
A low 1st round pick has very diminished value.
If you want Miller you have to pay up as there would be multiple suitors.
Of course, a 1st round pick from a playoff team is worth less than one from a bottom feeder but they still hold real value (and we see that yearly).
As I said, Miller is definitely worth a first but, at least for the Oilers, not a first plus a real signifigant prospect that’s on the cusp of being an NHL player.
Then you play the cards you’ve been dealt and piss away another season.
With all due respect, not taking your suggested deal, is not akin to pissing away another season.
Clearly Holland has to negotiate with the resident troll to get a trade done
The corpse of Patrick Marleau garnered a 1st round pick.
Miller is a top 20 forward in the league and is only 28.
Extreme value to a winner.
My apologies. I did not realize he was signed for another season. If the Oilers could make the cap work I would be in favour of a 1st + Sammy for Miller trade.
The Oilers would probably need to include Kassian and then add assets to make the money work.
Not quite. The Leafs spent a 1st round pick to gain $7M worth of cap space. The Canucks got a younger Miller for just a 1st round pick.
What? The Leafs paid a first round pick to get rid of Marleau – he never garnered a 1st rounder.
Would be lots of cap swap to make that happen
Rutherford is very aggressive
Unless the oilers are down on Samo it would be the first and Koski for Miller and Halak and dollars and contracts
I doubt it changes much given Tipp but it would be better
The real needs to move the dial are 3C and goaler
D can’t break out with no support. They can only skate it out, or glass and out
So if you get Miller and don’t get hosed, Nuge has to be 3C
I don’t think the current coaches have it in them to do that
If Smith isn’t broken Halak makes them better for sure, playoff potential G
Miller would be an elite 3C.
Nuge can stay where he is.
The Canucks would not be interested unless the pot was sweetened considerably.
The only position the Oilers have depth in order to deal is D and that is the Canucks biggest need.
Can’t afford it. Need money for a goalie and JPs contract
And the plodding continues.
If push came to shove, you could trade Miller in the summer – a 60 game rental as it were
You could probably recoup a large portion of your investment – Miller on an expiring contract would fetch a pretty penny(more if you retained some salary)
Easily.
If the Oilers gave up Yamamoto, a 1st and Samorukov how do you make the money work on the Oilers end. Could Vancouver afford to retain or take back another contract? they seem pretty tight to the cap.
My proposal included Koskinen and Yamamoto to balance the cap.
The 1st and a D prospect are the inducement to get Vancouver to pick up the phone.
I needed to write this out to make sure I had it all…
JT Miller (1 2/3 seasons of)
for
1st
Broberg/Samorukov
Yamamoto (who the Canucks don’t particularly want anyway)
Koskinen
For me, I don’t think that Kassian “deserves” a promotion, or top line minutes/oppoturnities. This isn’t necessarily because he can’t produce or even his some decent “fancies”, as JP has pointed out.
For me, the reason is that, despite some production here or there or nice “fancies”, to my eye, he continues to be (a) make massive mistakes (turnovers, poor coverage, poor board work, lack of getting in the shooting lane) that directly leads to goals against and (b) shows a complete lack of consistency in effort, commitment, etc.
In some games, his mistakes (often due to lack of effort/commitment) make him a net negative, even with decent fancies.
Some of his recent play, for me, should lead to the press box for at least a game, not a bump in opportunity.
At the same time, I don’t think of this as a promotion or an effort to “get him going”, its simply trying to balance the lines and get some help in that bottom six.
Almost to a man, fans think that Kailer needs to play some bottom six, well, if that’s the case, who could possibly go up to the top 6 (in particular with Hyman out so two players needing to move up).
Not Sceviour, not Shore, not Turris, not Ryan, etc., etc.
Sure, MAYBE Benson but I’m happy with his 3rd line bump.
This is not perfect but I understand the premise behind it.
I think that Tippett has looked at this from every conceivable angle and has his hand on the pulse of the team.
He knows the numbers, he knows who plays well with who, who needs propping up, and how to get the most balance out of an unbalanced roster. These things are not static. They change from game to game and from week to week throughout the season.
IMO no one knows the intricacies of the skill levels, the weaknesses, and the personalities of every player on this roster better than Dave Tippett.
The burden falls on Ken Holland to provide more balance. But not in a panicked fashion. There is plenty of time to make changes if and when the injury list stabilizes.
Or you could say the coaches are really uncreative
Same go to’s, same results
I would say the opposite. Tippett has tried everything you or I could conceive of long before he even got to Edmonton. Then, once here, he tried ALOT of different line combinations and he spent countless hours and days getting to know each player on a personnel level and in terms of their tendencies and habits. He watched hours of tape. He consulted with the other professional coaches on his staff as well as the numerous personal resources he has at his disposal.
What appears to some as stubbornness or lack of creativity is actually the ability to cut through the clutter and get to the net net in an expedited but orderly manner.
I thought flames got rid of Covid, not vice-versa.
Per Nugent Bowman about 20 minutes ago
-Hyman – day to day;”better response than we thought per Tippett” not ruled out for tomorrow vs Toronto
-Smith won’t be ready for tomorrow
-Keith might be ready for tomorrow
I was banging the drum all year LAST SEASON to put 93-29-56.
This year they have played A LOT together and been HORSE ******.
We can point to Smith, Keith, D man injuries BUT the marginal line 2 production at ES has disrupted a lot.
It’s still mostly goalie that’s killing them.
It’s much more than that.
The Oilers give up the 3rd most shots in the league…33.7/GP…tied with Ottawa.
That adds up over the course of an 82 game season.
They also give up a lot of high-danger chances at 5v5. 17th in the NHL.
This should improve with Darnell and Ceci back and more so when Smith and Keith return.
Reducing 5v5 goal differential is a stated objective. I think they need to see the injury situation improve in order to have a benchmark with which to work in order to assess where they will get the most bang for their buck in this area; Upgrading in goal, at LD, or at 3C.
Don’t think the brief absence of Nurse and Ceci are a big factor and Smith is an absolute non factor.
The issue is defensive structure and commitment to defensive play by the forwards.
Same as it ever was.
Of course, its been proven by numbers that Smith in the net results in less shots against (and you just spoke about the high number of shots against).
Its also clear, anecdotally at least, that Smith helps the defensive structure and breakout and I would presume the numbers back that up as well.
Smith is completely a primary factor, both in terms of his SV% and his puck handling ability.
But the issue of defensive structure and commitment to defensive play by the forwards is an even bigger factor.
There is a bit of “same as it ever was” feel to it. But there is a little “this looks and feels different” aspect to it as well with the additions of Hyman, Foegele and Ceci and the “so far so good” results from McLeod and Niemelainen.
A ways to go.
How many goals have the Oilers scored in the 5 game slump?
If you could snap your fingers and bring in any *available* head coach to replace Tippett today, who do you pick?
Any Vigneault takers? Julien? Woodcroft? How about McTavish or the corpse of the corpse of Ken Hitchcock?
Todd Nelson.
Not currently available.
I wanted him instead of TMac, and would still like to see what he can do.
Big no to any of those guys. Trotz for sure. Keefe maybe.
Ted Nolan.
Keep Hitch tf away from this hockey team.
I think every option you name, minus Mac T Hitch, might have a chance at unlocking this squa, and I only exclude Mac T because I don’t know if he still has the juice for it.
Gallant. He seems to be a shot in the arm to every team he touches.
No One.
The coaching carousel killed us for a decade.
Unnecessary change creates immeasurable harm and instability if you don’t get it exactly right.
Our history in this regard has been no where near exactly right.
Dave Tippett chose to allow his contract to lapse at the end of this season. He knew then and he knows now that he will not be back next year unless the Oilers do well in the playoffs. It takes real balls to do what Tippett has done in this regard. I admire him for it.
It has in essence guaranteed that he will not be fired in season unless something goes horribly wrong.
Hyman not ruled out for tomorrow (responded well to treatment) is great news. I doubt he’ll play tomorrow but it doesn’t sound like it’ll be long term at all.
As Oiler fans, we have heard this sort of thing before re: shoulder injuries. “It will just be a couple of days”… six months later of inexplicably poor production “looks like they’re going to need surgery”.
That sounds like 4/5 of Ales Hemsky’s career.
So China says a 3-5 week quarantine, just give them the gold and be done with it. They should be boycotted regardless.
Excited to see Foegele get some top 6 run, too bad it wasn’t due to Yamamoto moving down the line up expense.
Who’s going to be shocked when Nuge and Koskinen are headed to Montreal for Carey?
Nuge has a full NMC. His life is in AB and BC and he probably believes that he gave the Oilers a hometown discount to stay here. He’s not going to Montreal. Also, 1 year of Koskinen at $4.5 doesn’t offset the cap hit of $10.5 for 5 years of Price.
Koskinen’s $4.5 Million could still be applied to Prices salary in future years in lieu of paying money for his replacement (which is what Price would be) which does offset the cap hit.
One could make the case that it offsets $4.5 of the Cap hit, but what offsets the other $6.0 ? According to CapFriendly, the Oilers have $5.4 of projected Cap space (without Koskinen) for 2022-23 with 14 players on roster, and need to sign a starting goalie, JP, KY, Mcleod, and a combination of 5 other forwards & defensemen.
Montreal eats 25%, another team gets involved on a 3 way. Lots of options.
Always lots of options in a 3-way….
Any trade of Price would (almost) certainly include retained salary by Montreal
Max retained salary of 50% would make the Price cap hit $5.25M for the balance of the contract
The more Montreal retains however, raises the cost of acquisition
Montreal and the acquiring team can negotiate the percentage retained, but moving $10.5M of salary(with term) is a load in today’s NHL, but not impossible
There’s at least got be a delta in there somewhere regarding the cost of acquiring Price the player, and acquiring Price the Contract (as it were). Like how much would you give up for Price at full price? Are Montreal paying you to take him at that point?
Then you slide down from there to them retaining half and what that costs for them to keep the cash.
It can’t be a case of, ok, we think Carey Price is worth a first and some prospects. If you want us to retain you must give us even more.
If Montreal wants to rebuild, they must retain. Lots of ways to look a it.
Also I’m not clamoring for Price but it’s pretty clear the game that’s mostly goalie is costing Edmonton the most.
Everytime a soft goal is let in this team folds, you can see the look of defeat wash over the faces. Go back and watch the weak goal against Boston. Not a single player at that point had any hope left in them to win the game.
Markstrom made Calgary look like world beaters when he was posting shut out after shut out. When he’s not, they lose.
Mostly goalie is killing the Oilers.
I’m sure there is a price point where Price is movable, but acquiring Price is not something I’m advocating
Too much risk imo, and Price isn’t currently playing in the league- we don’t even know if(or when) he returns to playing hockey
No thanks to Carey Price
He’s too good to goaler?
I don’t see the players going if there is a true risk of a 5-week quarantine.
I believe they are investigating if the laws/protocols would allow for some sort or private charter out of the country (or something).
Hyman DTD and could play tomorrow? Phew. 😅
For he love of all that’s good, give him a couple days. The risk isn’t worth it.
If it’s just bruising and soreness, there isn’t risk.
I would likely add Savoie to the contract list for the summer.
We’ll see where the next few months take us but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s signed at the end of the NCAA season and playing pro in the spring – maybe even burning an ELC year by playing in the NHL (probably unlikely that he’s in the NHL in March/April but it happens).
Sometimes agreeing to burn that first year of the ELC is a carrot to get the player to sign.
Burning that first year is not a big deal, in my opinion, and can often be of benefit in the medium term (2nd contract comes a year earlier where the player is one-year less established and probably a cheaper contract).
As for the 50-contract list and this season, Petrov won’t count given he’s back in junior.
Having so much room on the 50 contract list can be a big benefit for the deadline but, of course, there is still the cap space issue and cap/contracts likely needing to be disposed of to bring in any player of substance.
I guess it provides the ability to acquire contracts in the deadline deal if the trade partner has a 50-contract issue (and is acquiring real prospects that are signed (and part of the 50) in the deal – like a Samorukov for example, or taking on a Koskinen for cap reasons.
Kassian on top line is more about Puljujarvi on 2nd line to help drive it with Nuge.
And what other option? He can play with those two, and Yamamoto has been brutal so I like him with the kids. The 3/4th line is defense only so who cares.
Agreed – as I just posted in a new post.
Its about Jesse on the 2nd line to help and its also about Yamamoto on the 3rd line (to help there and maybe ease the pressure and give him some “lighter minutes”.
Not using schedule of fatigue or anything like that as an excuse but, after 4 games in a week, the boys now have a full day off and a real practice before their next game – no travel involved at all – sleeping in their beds at a normal hour every night, some recovery time and some practice time before a home ice game.
I EXPECT them to come out hard, aggressive, with legs and energy, etc. on Tuesday night, in particular the higher end players who haven’t been at the top of their games over the last little bit – at least to my eye.
Khudobin in waivers.
Could we afford him if we waive Turris?
It would have to be a trade, I expect.
Last year was a .905 sv %. This year is an .873 sv %. He’s 35 years old. He doesn’t seem to be an improvement on our existing goalies.
Why would the Oilers want him.
To boost Koski’s confidence in practice?
Because Mikko needs his rest he gets really tired and cranky if he plays 2 games in a row.
Why would we add a goalie that is worse than all 3 goalies we have and is old and expensive for next year?
No Thanks. Not old enough.
MAF is 37
So Foegele is in the top 6 tomorrow night.
Bear was 3rd pairing against the Oilers and 3rd pairing last night (played 8 plus minutes at 5 on 5 and less than 10 minutes overall).
Looks like Holland traded a 3rd pairing d-man for a top 6 winger…….. Foegle is cost-conrolled as well (locked in for 2 more years) and Bear is an RFA needing a third contract.
Clearly I jest a bit but I have read alot about trading a “cost-controlled top 4 RD” for a 3rd line winger with TOI useage and deployment as a primary factor…..
RHD who can play top-four are unicorns. Bear is gone and that’s a fact, but if you’re going to bring this up then I’m going to respond. It was an overpay. I like both players.
Do you mean RHD who *can* play top 4 but are best suited for a 3rd pairing role? Because there are a lot of guys who can do it for a few games but cannot do it over a full season. Bear and Barrie are both examples.
Bear can play top 4, doesn’t mean he should.
These days with defencemen handiness “a thing”, most teams deploy right shooting RHD. This makes 64 top 4 Ds (or there about) in a 32 league. If you discount the below average teams there are still 30~50(assuming the bad team 1st pair is at least as good as a good team 2nd pair) of them around.
If they are unicorns we are probably live in Ponnyville where unicorns run amok.
The post was clearly a bit tongue in cheak, I did even say it was made in jest.
Yes, I brought it up because, currently Foegele will be playing top 6 and Bear has been in the 3rd pair (on a depleted d-core) with under 10 min per game last game.
I know he’s coming back from illness but, at the same time, when Foegele was on the 3rd line and Bear was playing higher in the order is seemed to be strict evidence of “trading a cost-controlled top pairing RD for a 3rd liner”.
Sure, just so you know that this subject dies if you let it, doesn’t if you don’t let it. People sometimes get tired of this kind of thing, suspected we are not like them. 🙂
I don’t need the subject to die, its a fine subject (and I’m pretty sure its not dying any time soon).
It has been noted, many many times over the two months of the season when Bear plays top pairing and Foegele plays 3rd line and the conclusion made is “traded a cost-controlled top pair RD for a 3rd liner”.
Given the above, its just as fair to note when Foegele gets deployed in the top 6 and Bear is playing 10 minutes or less per game on the 3rd pairing – at least I think it is.
IMO, the proof will be in the pudding. It will settle the matter irrespective of your opinion or OP’s opinion.
The proof will be Bear’s next contract.
As Ken Holland has stated. Defensemen get paid in a range.
Top pairing Dmen start at $6m and go as high as 11m
Middle pairing Dmen make from $4m to $6m
Bottom pairing Dmen make from $1m to $3m
Fair?
Bear is cost-controlled for one more year after this one. He’s also recovering from an illness.
I thought about the illness-recovery angle but it doesn’t hold water. Ceci returned after his Covid illness and is back playing 20+ minutes per game. Pelech on the Islanders returned after Covid illness to 20+ minutes per game. Other players who returned without a drop off in minutes played: Pat Kane, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Mark Scheifele. Brent Pesce will be eligible to return against the Wild in Minnesota — highly doubt he will be playing 10 minutes per game. Bottom line: if a player is healthy enough to return to the lineup, the coach will play him his normal minutes.
Bear is an RFA this off-season with arbitration rights. Given the verbal on his worth, well, he is far from cost controlled.
I really liked the Foegle trade. And it doesn’t really matter where either play in the lineup. We needed a guy like Foegle more than we needed Bear IMO. I would have liked a lower asset cost, but it is what it is. Would a different GM have got a better deal? Probably.
Or would have got Necas, RS C that enjoys the rough stuff according to him.
Young RD that can take first pair minutes should get a young 3C IMO.
Nothing wrong with Foegele, just that lower offense energy 3LW are not the same value as a top 4 RD. A pick coming as well would help balance it. Not a grinder.
There’s no way we were getting Necas for Bear. I could see Bear for Foegle and a pick maybe.
I think a better dealing GM could have made that work. Top 4 established RS D (he had a few seasons and a lot of successful top pair TOI) are rare. More rare than Necas.
His metrics were good, the Canes knew that. The Oilers typically undervalued their own talent.
You think Bear was gonna fetch Necas?
At least close IMO
Is he lower offense because his 3C’s are not legit 3C’s and he’s getting zero run with the big horses?
Foegele gets some riding time with the thoroughbreds and starts putting numbers in the columns there’s going to be alot of back tracking around here.
I missed it. When did HH switch handles to Richard Roma??
I like Foegele a lot. I could agree with LT that Carolina won the trade; But I would say the win was marginal AND the results could change over time. If Bear gets paid like a middle pair RD on his next contract $4m+ that will decide the matter for me.
Having said that, I would note that Foegele did not have much success in the few instances where Carolina payed him with skill in their top six.
In our roster, Foegele has outplayed Yamamoto to date and has earned at least a cup of coffee in the top six. But that is as much a result of Yamo under-performing as it is of Foegele outperforming.
Where did you get that idea?
The last couple of seasons he scored 3.01 P/60 with Aho (219 minutes) and 2.54 P/60 with Svechnikov (448 min).
Those numbers are encouraging to see.
I just remember reading that Carolina was willing to move on from Foegele if the price was right due to the fact that he could not break through into the top 6.
But i guess that could be due to the strength/skill of Carolina’s forward group.
I hope we get a good chance to see what he can do in our top 6.
Ah, yeah that makes sense. I’d guess that was a combo of quality above him and his own limitations. I mean, we’ve seen his hands. It’s likely he can be a decent complementary winger in the top 6, but he’s never going to fill the net.
His Carolina numbers are encouraging though, both overall and ‘with skill’. Curious to see the lines play tomorrow for sure.
Prior to practice today and seeing the line rushes I was thinking about Hyman potentially being out and that maybe one silver lining would Tippett finally using Benson up the lineup a bit if Foegele was elevated to the top 6.
I am intrigued by the Benson/McLeod/Yamamoto line and am exicited to see it tomorrow.
Lots of reps with Keith and Ceci together in practice and, although mileage varies for sure, for me, it will be great to have Keith back. Lets not forget (and Gregor and LT have reminded us), that the numbers back up the eye test re: Keith moving the puck out of the zone – the SportLogiq numbers have him #1 on the team as far as zone exits.
In any event, not having one of Lagesson, Broberg, Niemelainen, Russell in the top 4 just makes the defensive group deeper and better.
Yeah, yeah I know this article is mainly about the Canucks but there’s a fascinating section about the draft strategy of Carolina.
They traded down in consecutive drafts to make 11 picks in the last 3 years and now have an absolute boatload of prospects who will be playing in the World Junior Championships.
https://theathletic.com/3012077/2021/12/13/the-armies-insufficiently-fawning-coverage-of-fourth-consecutive-canucks-win/?source=user_shared_article
I would bet Tulsky is behind this.
Trading down to get more picks… too bad Ken Holland never thought of that!
🙄
Carolina has had 34 picks over the last 3 drafts.
The Oilers picked 17 times.
Given that almost a dozen Carolina picks will be playing in the World Juniors, it would seem it’s a strategy that’s paying off big time.
MacT did, Carolina should send him a thank you for laying out the blueprint.
Ummmmm, Ken Holland has been doing it for a while…
2016 he traded the 16 overall pick(Chychrun) and Datsyuk’s $7.5 million cap hit to Arizona for #20 overall(Cholowski) and #53(Hronek)
2013 he traded #18 ov(Mueller) for #20(Mantha) and #58(Bertuzzi)
2011 he traded #24ov (Puempel) for #35(Jurco) and #48(Ouellet)
with the Oilers he has notably traded down in 2021 trading #20(Wallstedt) for #22(Bourgault) and #90(Munzenberger)
and in 2020 he traded #76(Gushchin) for #100(Savoie) and #126(Tullio)
He seems to get conditions on every second deal and has traded high picks/prospects for players with loaded Wings team(Sean Avery, Maxin Kuznetzov,2003 1st & 2004 2nd for Matthieu Schneider), or offloaded vets for high picks/prospects(Tomas Tatar to VGK for 2018 1st(30th ov Velno) 2019 2nd & 2021 3rd).
Based on his trade history, looks like he’s thought of it.
Never talked about when his history is brought up by that’s an all-timer as far as value gained.
To be fair to Kenny – he usually does not have many picks to play with.
His arm is worn out from all the rice ( draft picks ) he has been throw’n.
Also to be fair, Holland/Wright amateur procurement doesn’t appear to be the problem.
Injuries or not, Kassian being promoted back to Line 1 after his recent run of games is absolutely stunning to me.
I don’t have the experience or knowledge Dave Tippett does, and never will, but I don’t understand this move at all. At best, he produces for a game or two like he has shown at times to do, with no real meaningful long-term impact.
At worst, I think you actually harm the locker room in terms of setting a double standard that is now almost undeniable.
Kassian should have been in the press box the past couple games. Now Tippett rewards him by playing with 97 & 29?
The double-standard has definitely been set…
Just spitballing here, but could they possibly be trying to get him on a mini-heater so he’s easier to shop around the league? Any signs of ZK’s old game coming back, I’d be tempted to flip him for someone else.
Your sense is Tippett is not aware of this?
Who would you move up from the bottom 6 in his place?
In the last 10 Oilers games Kassian is 4th among forwards in SF%, 4th in GF%, 5th in 5v5 points and scoring rates.
Who is being slighted by the double standard? Ryan? Shore? Benson? Sceviour? Turris?
That’s just it. People complain, but really is there another suitable option? Cupboard is kinda bare.
Maybe just play Yamo there as the passenger?
If you can play Kassian on the 1st line, you can try literally anyone on the roster imo.
What does Benson look like? Does Shore do something? Does Turris make the right passes? Would Sceviour succeed?
If Kassian is a suitable option for the 1st line, have you actually given anyone else an attempt at the role?
How the fuck Perlini got some shifts on the top line while Foegele tried to make soup out of Derek Ryan chickenshit is just another indictment of the coach unable to take his blinders off and coach.
Foegele is the only guy who might be a fit in the top 6 and he is a better fit at 2LW if Hyman is out.
It has to be either
Kassian McDavid Draisaitl
Foegele Nuge JP
or
Foegele McDavid Kassian
Nuge Draisaitl JP
IMO
I honestly don’t even care if it was Sceviour at this point, or an AHL option. Kassian was downright awful in Boston in terms of lazy, uninspired play. He followed that up in Carolina with a dumb penalty that – once again – put the team down to start the game.
When Tippett demotes Yamo or staples Puljujarvi to the bench, it is never a matter of “well who will replace them”. With Kassian, it’s like an automatic free pass. That’s the issue.
Have you asked yourself why?
Start with the premise that the Coach isn’t stupid and ask yourself, why is this happening?
^ This is thinking like a Coach imo.
There are a lot of holes on the 50 man list, but the overall look is encouraging.
I have only seen highlights from Petrov and there are some nice goals. Not related to Vladimir Petrov, but he certainly scores like the senior Petrov.
I certainly look at the prospect pool, and it is miles better than it was during the decade of darkness. There are some real players in there, but it will take time. Time and patience are running thin right now though.
Now, for today, this is a snakebitten lineup. Moving Yamamoto down might help him. Can’t quite put my finger on it, but he’s not the same kid who brazenly told the Oilers draft they’d better draft him or he’d make them pay every time they played against him. Hoping for the best for him.
I don’t want to speak to Kassian anymore other than to say, he is on his last legs in the NHL. He just needs to produce more. Bottom line. Maybe a trip to Bakersfield?
Just some quick uncaffiennated thoughts.
I don’t know if Yamamoto is harbouring an injury of some sort, but his recent performance has bordered on invisible. During the losing streak he has played 72 minutes & not mustered a single shot on net. Played in the top 6 throughout.
Over the last 10 games his on-ice shot share has been 49-89 in 141 minutes, or 21-38 per 60.
I attended the Tuesday game vs Minnesota & saw a play down in my corner where Yam didn’t join a battle, threw a little snow & Minny walked out with the puck, & for the first time I experienced doubts about his long-term viability in the league. An injury would explain it, I guess, though would raise other questions.
Truth bomb.
Further to this, making a point to watch only opposition broadcast on our games – I am not sure Kailer’s name was called in the last few games.
Can we blame Kassian for this?
26 games played and counting and still *no* first assists registered playing nearly exclusively with Leon Draisaitl.
He’s only got 1 assist period. That is mind-boggling.
Yamamoto is earning $1.175 million dollars in the last year of his contract. Kassian is earning $3.2 million on one that never ends.
I noted Yamamoto’s weak play along the own zone boards on a goal against the other day..
I also have been calling for him to be moved to the 3rd line for several weeks. And for the Benson, McLeod, Yamamoto trial.
ah, we are blaming Yamo’s season on Kassian’s contract.
Less is expected of players earning $1 million on short term contracts than players earning greater than the median salary on long contracts.
Nope, Yamamoto was expected to perform much better then Kassian regardless of contract status. Infact more was expected of Kailer, and he hasn’t delivered.
Reasonable expectations help keep one sane.
He held out for a loooong time because he didn’t want to sign a lowball contract. Turns out, he might not live up to that lowball contract (even playing mostly with Draisaitl ffs).
Yamamoto is currently a bargain at his low-ball contract given his 2-way responsibility, PK ability and ability to draw penalties.
He has struggled to produce in the top 6, and that is a problem, but he still provides value and will be able to do so from the 3rd line as well.
Nobody compared the 2, their play, their contracts. You are trying the link the two, somehow using Kassian’s contract to justify your supposed low expectations of Yamo’s and his shitty season.
Raises an interesting question.
On a one year contract for $1m who would you keep Kassian or Yamamoto.
Two completely different skill sets.
Once you’ve answered that, then answer the question asked a different way. If they were both on 1yr contracts at $1m who would have more trade value?
While I’m not certain on either question, my sense is, If my top 6 was sufficiently populated, I think I’d prefer Kassian on the 3rd line.
And I think that Kass would have the higher trade value.
Of course this is purely hypothetical so Kassian’s contract blows both questions out of the water.
Not Kassian. The answer is not Kassian.
Thanks for answering for me.
Interesting.
At the same AVV and term, I think Boston for example would covet Kassian more than they would Yamo.
Yeah, something sure isn’t right with him. He literally seems invisible these days.
I think sometimes that these guys hide/ don’t report injuries. Either that or they are under tremendous pressure. When you hyper conform as much as athletes do, you tend to play with a lot of pain and as one person said, when you get injured it is just the final step of a process that has been a long time coming. And with Yamamoto consistently having to prove himself due to his size, he would be at risk the play with injury.
It’s called loss of confidence. Yamo should of been batting lower in the order 15 games ago. Tippett is going to lose his job over his stubbornness to put a round peg in a square hole.
So many skilled forwards. Nothing is promised no one, but these kids seem to lining up the way I had thought the secondary picks of Hall draft were going to.
Remember when Yamo used to fly in and steal pucks and be a massive pain in the ass? It’s been gone awhile now. He has to be hurt.
I know most GM’s try to convince everyone that being a GM is similar to inventing cold fusion or travelling back in time. To me there seems to be 5-6 top end GM’s guys who make great decisions and dont get burned by a players salary demands or getting fleeced by another GM, like our Kenny does.
Add to that a coach who just cant seem to get his team ready or fired up, the season is going where it was destined.
Most top teams roll 4 lines, because their GM has given the coach 4 lines worth of players.
When you look at all the trades and signings the GM has made over his 2-3 seasons and see they might be a tiny bit better , but thats it.
I love the Nuge but last season there were teams that were willing to pay a kings ransom for a good 2nd line center. Instead the GM signed the Nuge who has 2 goals this season playing big minutes, if he was 21 they would be sending him back to the AHL
Same thing with Yamo, Benson doesn’t get a sniff while Yamo keeps getting put out there and doing nothing
For me what’s really worrying is the farm team looks awful, there is no up and coming forward coming to the rescue, and its a good bet Kenny will trade his 1st round pick in desperation even though this team is not close to going on a long run in the playoffs.
Like i said the top teams have the top coaches and GM’s . The Oiler don’t have a top GM or coach.
There are no up and coming forwards on the farm due to injury (Holloway), NCAA (Savoie) and youth (Bourgault, Petrov, Tullio). That doesn’t mean there are no up and coming forwards though.
Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) Tweeted:
Foegele in top 6 white at practice this morning. Yamamoto in bottom 6 grey – assuming that’s how they run it today.
https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1470451594869329922?s=20
This makes sense. I love Yamamoto, but he needs to produce.
I too love Yamo. If he ends up as a 3RW that PKs and can occasionally move up to the 2RW slot that still has enormous value. Finding someone to fill the 2RW hole is the real puzzler. It ain’t Kassian.
Giroux
He could be useful. Still nearly a point per game. Contract value – I have not a clue on as he’s on an expiring $8.25 mill per year effort currently. He’ll be getting less than that for the next one but it’s not like it’ll be peanuts though, and he’s 34 in January.
One of my favourite wingers in the league for years though, would love to see him play for the Oilers. Age makes me wary though.
Not sure how or when Holland fills all these holes it’s a good bet it’s not this season but the off season.
I wont believe he would throw assets for rentals this year & I’m not sure Holland can get player plus term unless it’s a player a team’s desperate to shed.
Personally I don’t have a lot of faith in Holland’s ability to craft the right deals to improve the club. While he has made a couple of good moves, (signing Ceci and Hyman) he has made more bad ones. While I didn’t mind getting Keith the deal was atrocious.. He had all the chips in his favour and Bowman handed him his ass. Taking the full cap was terrible! Giving up 2 – 2nd round picks for AA was a waste of valuable draft picks. His history is over pay. His Euro gambles yielded little and have seen few US college signings. Signing of Kass and Barrie yuck.
Would like to see Nichelson depart and let Holland take those duties. This team needs a sharp, shrewd GM who uses all the tools to build a team. Seeing a well constructed team like the Hurricanes was an eye opener. They may be lacking star players but they are well constructed and well coached. Not sure you can say that about the Oilers. Yes we have two of the best players and a few other nice pcs but far to many holes and miscast players.
I’m not sure that all Oiler role players are that bad and everyone else’s that good
We see this elsewhere. Everyone coveted Tampa players, many are much less on a new team.
To me it’s coaching. The best coaches get more out of their players than the roster seems to offer, and vice versa.
Holland isn’t impressive so far, but look at the difference in the Hawks and Dys, same players.
For me whatever they are doing doesn’t work. No improvement 5v5 and role players crashing. No matter who they are.
No point in a change unless it’s Trotz or Q, guys with proven records of immediate improvement. And playoff success.
Not a Babcock fan. Unless Woody comes with a new plan no point in doing that. The system is the problem. The players can’t play it for whatever reason.
At some point everyone has to stop talking about the next season.
The GM had tons of cap room this summer, the result of all that spending got the Oiler’s who they are which is still a team with 2 superstars and thats it.
You seriously don’t like Zach Hyman?
I know he’s stated in the past that he wasn’t interested in rentals. But this is the first year that he’s on the record as being all in.
Sometimes deals make themselves when availability meets need.
If, after the team resolves its injury situation and the roster stabilizes enough to make reasoned assessments, if it’s deemed that a goaltending upgrade is the priority, Holland might consider a rental.
I don’t think that’s right, he’s stated that he’s against trading 1st round picks for rentals – he’s added rentals both years.
He has stated he’s “all-in” if the team has put itself in the position as a tp 8-10 team, however, at the same time, he stopped well short of saying he’d pay a 1st rounder for a rental (even when the direct question was asked).
He has said the 1st rounder is in play but intimated it would be for a player with term. The JT Miller idea is a good one, money is an issue.
Yes. Thank you for refreshing my memory.
Agree with you on all fronts.
MAF would not have to be a rental if Chicago gave us rights to talk to him.
Maybe Keith will develop an Allergy to his equipment …. 🤓
From the Oilers perspective, it is preferable that he retires rather than goes on LTIR.
If a player retires, does the contract just disappear?
In Keith’s case, no.
If Keith retires, we get a negative cap recapture penalty which works out to a bonus of $3.4 million in extra cap space next year (plus Keith’s $5.5 m)
In other words, if Keith retires at the end of this season, Holland will go down as a genius for finding a new way to circumvent the salary cap.
Maybe we need a Kelowna-based scout to keep an eye on the BCHL for the next three years at $500k per. 🙂
I’d like to see the old Keith for exactly one postseason and then see him immediately retire (out on top). If only.
Keith is playing for the Oiler’s simply because it was them or Calgary, Calgary were not interested so it was the Oiler’s by default. He isn’t here to chase another cup, he is here for his kid and thats commendable, for me thats on the Oiler’s
Duncan Keith has been a steady defender making good plays on the 2nd pairing for the Oilers.
This negative group is a wild bunch, everyone’s verbal vomit doesn’t line up with the man’s play.
Connor and Drai aren’t thinking about winning cups? Now and into the future?
Keith is here to win no matter what the hate mob cries about.
I agree, but if he retires in the summer that’s $9M in cap space next year. You can buy a lot of nice stuff for $9M.
Duncan Keith makes this team better this year than not having Duncan Keith.
I believe that, next season, what can be acquired (and kept) with $9M plus of cap space would make the team better than Duncan Keith
Not sure if that helps. The Coyotes still have one year left on Hossa’s contract. It’s only $1 MIllion, but counts as $5.75 Million against their cap.
Alex Pietrangelo Not sure he will play in the Olympics.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/golden-knights-pietrangelo-hasnt-decided-hell-play-olympics/sn-amp/
Why did he agree to be on the team then?
Circumstances have changes – such as the potential for a 5-week quarantine, etc.
If I’m Katz I’m doing everything I can to turn McDavid away from the Olympics.
Nope. If I’m a owner, I let the player(s) decide. There is no upside in discussing this with the player(s).
The players negotiated the right to play in the Olympics.
He knew circumstances could change when he agreed to be on the team. Covid was around a couple of months ago.
Yes, he knew circumstances could change and, just like the NHL allowing its players to go and just like the NHLPA deciding to go, the commitment of individual players named is contingent. There are outs for all three prongs.
Not to be a downer but I think it might be time to recognize certain things which, in my opinion, could be hard truths. I personally don’t like this as I usually like to give the team until the 40 game mark to assess. But alas…
1) Injuries are impacting the team and exposing how very thin their talent level is; Such an obvious thing but I can’t realistically see Mike Smith’s return having that much of an impact on things. Hyman’s injury is going to seriously throw things into flux and the blender will be kicking into overdrive.
2) The team isn’t as well rounded as many of us thought. The second line is a dog’s lunch and isn’t getting it done (no fault of Drai). 3rd and 4th lines are not performing at the required level…or at all.
3) Other teams have figured out the Oilers. Plain and simple. I feel like many of the plays, breakouts, etc… are essentially telegraphed and other team’s scouts have prepared their teams accordingly. I hate to say it but I think the league views the Oil as a one trick pony.
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For the reasons listed above, if the team plays .500 hockey the rest of the way I think the Oilers should keep their powder dry and not give up the 1st for a goalie (MAF, Khudobin, whoever) for a short spell of what ifs or if onlys.
I believe this team needs to trade with immediate urgency (trade deadline or sooner) Yamamoto, Barrie, Kassian, Koskinen. I’m not listing Ryan as I don’t think he’d fetch anything of note. Waiver him and send him to Bakersfield.
The team is going to have almost 4.25 million in buyout money tied up next year. That stings and needs to stop.
I think Keith needs to retire. Or at least made to see that retirement is his best option. Maybe a visit from some guys named Vinny, Sal, and Luca will let him see the light.
Let’s send everyone out and play these guys for 60 mins
29-97-13
25-75
41
Why does Keith need to retire other then everyone just repeating themselves?
Cap space.
Duncan Keith makes the current team better but a retirement opens up over $9MM of cap space. There is no doubt that can “buy more” than Duncan Keith can provide value wise.
Richard brought that up yesterday. We’re not familiar with that much room on the 50-man list.
What’s the reason for so much room? Lack of prospects? Cost-cutting? No money for signing college free agents? Signing AHL vets instead of tweeners?
I wouldn’t say “cost-cutting” – I presume the AHL contracts for the likes of Cracknell, Malone, etc. are just as much (if not more) than the AHL portion (or guarantee min comp) for the likes of Seth Griffith.
There is no cap on AHL salaries.
The recent injuries are bad luck, and happen to all teams eventually.
But Holland’s magic expanded talent pool of Geriatric players increase the risk of such occurrences.
Most GM’s value experience, especially elite experience and bring in players like a Thornton or a Spezza for low money in non mission critical roles.
Holland went big betting significant cap space and crucial roles on the ancient. The risk of injuries and declining skills was evident. The results should be of no surprise. 3 of the older summer of Ken signings have been injured and in the case of Ryan the skills erosion cliff came Wiley Coyote style.
Holland’s own skills are unlikely to improve (for similar reasons) so I expect more of the same at the trade deadline and in the summer.
Would I advocate for never signing a player over 34?
The short answer would be, “yes.”
The longer answer would be “it depends and very reluctantly.” I guess if we’re taking a $1m x 1 year, then you do what you have to do. All things being equal, I’d prefer a player in the 25-8 range.
I certainly wouldn’t sign a run-of-the-mill player over 30 like Ryan to multi-year contracts over $1m.
There are some guys over 30, who are exceptional skaters and long runs of good health like Cogliano.
Still off your list Cogliano, Bellemare, and Lewis, all are nearly finished offensively with 6, 6 and 4 points respectively. Simmons has been an effective fourth liner with 9 points and Bozak has 7.
To your point, almost all of these guys are on $1m or less x 1 year contracts except Bellemare and Perry who have $1m x 2, Bozak too with some potential bonuses in his contract.
None of your names have the production of these younger guys:
Objects in the rear view mirror are closer than they appear. For players over 30, the cliff can come calling at any time.
Agreed, I think we could come up with some rules of thumb based on your observations;
Only sign 30+ players to that were previously elite (or elite in their role), to single year contracts, for non substantial roles (top 6, top 4, 3C and 1G) and pay them commensurate to their new role.
Thanks for the reply. And fair enough if you’d essentially not sign older players. I also wouldn’t disagree that if all else is equal that the young player is likely the better bet.
You highlighted the difference in the ‘young’ and ‘old’ FA groups though. Perry and Brassard both have double digit points (should we also include Spezza?). That’s more points than Kampf and within 1 or 2 points of everyone you list but Bunting and Rodrigues. Those 2 are similar bets to Kahun last year but they have caught lightning in a bottle. Kase is a bet more on health than anything, so it’s a win if he can stay on the ice.
The ‘young’ FA group (league wide) also has a lot more names in it, so there ought to be more hits. I’m not sure there’s a big gap in return on investment for these relatively low cost 1-2 year deals.
The other thing is that smart GMs do sign these older guys all the time. Colorado just signed Helm (34). They also gave Bellemare (34) 2x$1.8M a couple of yrs ago, and TB just gave him 2x$1M at 36.
TB also gave Perry (36) 2 yrs. Simmonds (33) got 2 yrs. Vegas gave Martinez (34) 3 years. There’s tons of other examples, I’ve just picked some from teams that tend to be highly regarded for their moves.
My take is there’s value in both groups, as well as lots of misses. I definitely wouldn’t advocate giving too much money or term to older players, but beyond that I don’t see any issue with it.
Sure if you can sign an old guy for a year at under a million dollars and you’re not relying on them (as Oil2Oilers said) on your top two lines, 3c or top 4 d, then there’s no downside.
Brassard is $850 k x 1 year.
Brassard had a great start. He was out for a few weeks with a lower body injury though. He’s also not listed by Daily Faceoff as back in the lineup?
Perry’s old, but he used to be a very elite hockey player. He’s a special case. It’s easy to forget he’s had five seasons with over 100 points.
I’d have probably taken Perry as an extra player at 2x $1m.
Kampf doesn’t have a lot of points, but he’s playing regular minutes as a 3c on a line that’s not bleeding. That’s a lot in my books as an Oilers fan.
I’m surprised you haven’t brought up 42 y/o Joe Thornton?
In the Oilers case, $1.25 x 2 for a 34 y/o Derek Ryan was a richer contract than most of the guys we’re talking about.
He also has 1 goal in 23 games, is -13 and isn’t really adequate for even a fourth line centre even though we needed him for 3c.
He had a good year last year playing with a lot of different linemates.
If his contract was a year shorter, 300k less, and there were alternatives to play, it would be less of an issue.
In my opinion, the trade deadline wishlist still looks like this:
In that order.
I think goaltending represents a potential upgrade but the cost/ upgrade ratio isn’t that good. A goalie like Fleury may or may not be an upgrade, but likely costs a 1st round pick. Then he needs to perform as a top 10 goalie in the league to improve on our current tandem.
A top 4LD would move Keith down a bit, and provide cover for a Nurse injury. It is clear that he is the least replaceable player on the team currently, since any games missed by Mr.Nurse would result in Keith playing as 1LD, Koekkoek/Russel as 2LD and a rookie likely in as 3LD. This would help lower Nurse’s minutes a bit, lower Keith’s a bit and allow him to play 3LD, and ensure that Russell is the 7/8D.
a 3C provides a ton of depth to the team and would stabilize that group. a mentor for Mcleod, and a little bit more cover in case of injury in the top 6. Ideally this is someone who could also slide to wing at times as well.
A top 6 winger is currently covered by yamamoto, but its becoming clearer that he and Kassian are playing at least one too high on the pecking order. They need to be bumped down,and a player that could step in and support Draisaitl’s line, or give the 2nd line enough get up and go to put McDrai together long-term would help this team out enormously.
Obviously cost and availability is the issue, no idea who could fill the holes on this team, but I am not in favour of picking up a goalie at this time, unless the other holes get filled first. Also, we need to see which might get filled internally, but at this point, I don’t think that LD, 3C or Wing is getting filled by what we have in the system.
I like to add a 2/3 center – Tomas Hertl
The 3 week break in the schedule if the Olympic hockey is cancelled can be used to reschedule the postponed Covid games. Silver lining in every cloud.
From Seravelli this morning (DFO Rundown), it would probably just be the last week that would be used for those games – would still be a 10-day (or so) break given arena conflicts.
Flames next 3 games postponed due to 7 positive Covid tests.
yikes….
It will be interesting to see what Treliving does at the deadline, I imagine they are all in.
The numbers are regressing to the meat, and they are losing more. They really need more top end skill, I hope they don’t get it.
However being an asshole team already, I’m sure E Kane would fit in seamlessly, could sit right beside Tkachuk in the room.
Phil Kessell?
Sutter would take his hotdogs away and PB him with proper Beef and Kale salads
Seriously The Thrill may be a bit too one way but you never know
During intermission of the Oiler’s game on Saturday, the HNIC crew was mentioning that Tomas Hertl has been linked to the Flames?
Hertl would be quite the get for Calgary.
Hope it doesn’t happen…
Seems the “Efficacy” may not have been what was advertised or what the NHL was hoping for.
I think this is the big reason the NHL / players are considering not going to the Olympics …. everybody can get Covid no mattet how cautious they are. And Nobody wants the 21 day+ quarantine ……
We wait
Some rumblings over the weekend that Joe Biden may announce a total boycott of the games this week.
And rightfully so some things are bigger than sports.
Sure hope he does.
I realize this is pedantic, but I would argue the efficacy was exactly what was advertised–it was simply a measurement at that point in time. New mutants swirling around now though.
Anyway, we still got T cells from those shots, so hopefully we’ll still all be fine if our antibodies can no longer stop 95% or whatever of all spread. Just got to wait a little bit longer to see how effective those little buggers are I guess.
Current intel is the quarantine, if a player tests positive, is min 21 days and could be as long as 5-weeks.
They are trying to figure out if laws would allow for private charters out of the country, etc., however, I’m going to think that if 5-weeks is indeed a potential, the players won’t go.
Why didnt the league make them limp through a couple of games like they did with Sens and Isles? Seems like they are getting different treatment
That RW looks rather bleak heading into next season. Aside from JP, I don’t have faith that the rest of them can get the job done at the NHL level.
On a totally different topic, does anyone know what will happen to the schedule if it’s decided that the players won’t be heading to the Olympics?
Nobody knows quite yet. Last I heard was that NHL arenas had accepted other bookings, and so they were not available most nights to host games. It seems possible that if the NHL does not go to the olympics that there might still be a 3 week break in the schedule since games couldn’t be played.
Yes, I think 31saves is absolutely correct.
Seravelli spoke about this on the DFO Rundown this morning.
Sounds like there will still be a break of at least 10 days – best case scenario is they might re-start a week early (and mainly use that week for postponed games).
If Foegele replaces Hyman and produces with McDavid, we can move Hyman to 2RW with Drai and the top 6 is looking pretty good.
Agreed on the RW
Hyman can play his off-side
Move on from Kassian
Consider trading Yamo (tough one but I just can’t see him being a difference maker)
Trade Barrie too
Imagine being a winger in the Bake knowing that Yamamoto is in the lineup night in night out and he can’t piss a drop. But your phone never rings.
The first thing that struck me about the logical summer list was the lack of RW. I’ve been concentrating on 3C and G as the places of need for NHL, but depth it looks like right wing is badly in need of some options. The youngsters are tracking fairly to very well but they won’t be ready to be injury cover at the NHL next season.
I think G and 3C are on everybody’s mind since those have been issues with the team for at least 2 millenium now. RW though is a place to upgrade as well. What does your in-season trading wish list look like?
Both Hyman and Foegele play right wing, Hyman shoots right IIRC
Yup, that’s one answer, move Hyman over to the right is very much something I’ve considered.
31 Saves:
As for list I’ve been looking at the Habs a bit to see if there’s something to be had there. They’re clearly in the tank now so should be looking to move people out. I liked the idea of Hoffman as a less expensive option that we could throw up with McDavid – but the contract precludes that and I wouldn’t burn a first on him. Then I was looking at Perreault as a 3rd line option. He can play wing or centre, he’s not huge, however was a decent shit disturber for Winnipeg. Other plus is he’s a true rental and wouldn’t cost all that much. With the added bonus of him being C, or a LW you can kind of run the following things:
Hyman-McD-Jesse
Nuge-Drai-Yamo
Foegele-Perreault-Kassian
McLeod-Ryan-Shore (I like the idea of having 3 centres that can all PK down there, means there’s always faceoff guys available regardless of who’s in the box).
Or, if you run him left wing:
Hyman-McD-Jesse
Foegele-Drai-Yamo
Perreault-Nuge-Kassian
Amazingly he’s plus 2 for Montreal (if you care about plus minus). He only has 4 points in 13 games though. He did have the eye issue which is a bit concerning….
Saying all that, it’s not a right wing upgrade and it kind of concentrates on shoring up 3C – so I’m still fixated on that clearly.
Goalie wise? I mean really, take your pick. If there was a way to make Fleury work cap wise then do it. Apart from that I’m kind of in the talk to Seattle camp about Grub or Driedger. Even with their less than stellar numbers so far they’re worth talking to.
Long term for next season:
Light a candle for Holloway’s hand. Hope that he’s either the 3C or can play 2/3LW. Kassian moved, Hyman moved to RW, Yamo drops to 3rd line. So I end up with a hole on the top LW that needs filled
xxx-McD-Jesse
Nuge-Drai-Hyman
Foegele-Holloway-Yamo
Whatever bucket of bolts we have left for a 4th line.
Looking quickly at the free agent right wingers the name that jumps out the most to me (for hilarious reasons), is Nichuskin. If he could be had you could run him 2RW and leave Hyman on the top line with McDavid.
Hyman-McD-Jesse
Nuge-Drai-Nichuskin.
Evolving Wild would both rejoice and weep. Money wise unsure how that works out though.
What are your thoughts?
One additional top 6 winger (left or right shot/wing) would make a massive difference as it would allow Yamamoto to play 3RW full time (except for injury cover) with 4 legit top 6 wingers.
With Hyman able to play both wings, either side would work fine.
Only potential internal option for this season is Holloway in a few months (MAYBE Savoie after his college season ends but that seems like a pipe-dream).
As far as back in the summer, well, Nuge was a UFA and Hyman and Foegele not Oilers so, yes, LW was a bigger imminent need.
Oh yes, LW was definitely a big need in the summer. I was gunning hard for Tatar (5×5 number reasons) and maybe Hoffman instead of Hyman (a bad idea now that we have Hyman and taking the lack of defence aspect of Hoffman’s game into consideration, I was clearly being a tad silly). I “think” my thought process was that Tatar would either significantly shore up the 3rd line LW spot, or could play 2LW and allow Nuge to be the 3C, and Hoffman would be the 5×5 shooter for McDavid. Obviously the Foegele move covered the 3LW position off.
My grand plan overall was spending less than the Hyman contract for two wingers, and then combined with moving Koskinen out having enough cash to take a proper stab at Kuemper or A.N.Other free agent goalie.
Obviously it didn’t shake out that way and I can happily say that I was completely wrong on Hyman being an overpay contract wise. We’ll see in 3 years of course, he’s definitely worth the investment for now. Fingers crossed the shoulder is indeed not a long term issue as per today’s DTD news.