Reflecting Light

by Lowetide

In the modern era of the blog (Hall draft forward), I’ve used NHL equivalencies as a quick and easy way to evaluate picks and prospects. There are times when estimating a prospect’s future can use elements like age, and points-per-game. An NHL rookie season is one of those times.

Let me ask you a question: Among the current Oilers forwards who are rookies (Ryan McLeod, Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody), which one do you see having the longest career? What can their respective rookie seasons tell us about them? How important is Ryan McLeod’s offense to his future? Does it matter if he scores .20 points-per-game instead of .35 points-per-game as a rookie? Yes and no, according to Oilers history. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

ROOKIES AND THEIR STORY

Since 2000-01, the Edmonton Oilers have employed close to 50 rookie forwards in at least a few games. There are some obvious things that come from looking back, like No. 1 picks coming right to the NHL draft +1 and scoring well; younger players having more success than older rookies who scored at similar rates; and teenagers who played in the NHL, no matter the success as rookies, destined to have long careers.

THE IMPACT ROOKIES

This is the list of rookies who scored at half-a-point per game levels or better in their freshman seasons. Connor McDavid is beyond the blue horizon and all of his arrows (age, points-per-game) told us what he was going to be from the first puck drop. The story of McDavid today isn’t his promise in 2015, it’s that he’s over-delivered on that promise. Rare feat from a rare hockey player.

The next group is a tier of four (Nuge, Hall, Yakupov, Gagner) who arrived in the NHL at 18, played a feature role and succeeded at a high level. Nuge has better rookie numbers, but he also had more help as a rookie than (as an example) Hall one year earlier. Gagner got an extreme push as a rookie, and that’s one of the reasons he landed so high, but he also had ability and the proof we can offer today include his career games and boxcars.

Jordan Eberle and Andrew Cogliano have both enjoyed long careers, Eberle on a skill line and Cogliano playing multiple roles. I believe Eberle, along with a few others here, became a better than anticipated NHL player based on his first season.

Mike Comrie was a quality rookie who would have had a longer career, but injury impacted his longevity. Comrie was a productive player when healthy.

Linus Omark and Ales Hemsky had similar rookie seasons, Hemsky’s age (four years younger) was a major tell about his future. Hemsky was so young when he arrived that projecting him fairly meant a bell curve that rolled out for over a decade and by the time he was 23 the young Czech was in another area code than Omark at the same age. As was the case with Comrie (and Yakupov to a certain extent, although timing of injury for the Russian was key), injuries impacted Hemsky.

Omark earned a longer career that never came, and for that reason has things in common with Yakupov among the group on this list.

Glencross was a late developing player who nevertheless showed impressive skills and enjoyed a good career.

Telling stat: Ales Hemsky was a year older than McDavid, delivered half of the offense, and was still a top flight offensive player in the NHL. McDavid belongs in a higher league.

THE MID-LEVEL ROOKIES

First, let’s talk about the players in this group who played as rookies before 20. All of Paajarvi, Puljujarvi and Draisaitl had/are having NHL success, but Paajarvi’s career in the NHL was a disappointment considering the strength of this rookie season. He needed to add a shot, or find a way to stay net-front, and was unable to get it done. His NHL career was short for such a fantastic skater.

Puljujarvi struggled for a time, adding elements and maturity to his game in order to emerge as a quality top-six forward. Draisaitl also had to build on his natural talent to become the impact player he is today.

I think (not making any major declaration here) that players who are shy of .5 points-per-game as rookies, even the teenagers, are a least a little vulnerable to the whims of management/coaching staffs of drafting teams. Paajarvi’s coach (Tom Renney) admitted he couldn’t find room in year two for him, with rookie Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ arrival.

One quick note on that last paragraph: In the cases of Draisaitl, Puljujarvi and (later) Kailer Yamamoto, it’s quite clear the Oilers as an organization pushed these men to the NHL too soon. Now, Draisaitl was very close and did play in some bad luck, but I’m pretty confident in saying that he would have been up near the top of the ‘impact rookie’ list if he arrived a year later. That goes double for Puljujarvi, who (in my opinion) experienced a head coach who didn’t believe he was ready as an NHL rookie. That’s quite a soap opera management created for their lottery pick.

The best careers among the rest in this group, Horcoff, Pisani, Chimera, Stoll, are either college men, two-way players with some range of skill, and all played at least some of their careers as middle-six forwards.

I’m not sure age was much of a factor for these players, and in fact I think the team’s coach at the time (Craig MacTavish) may have been instrumental in aiding the quality and length of their careers. It would be interesting to see if a specific coach-type has an impact on what kind of players see the clear light of day.

Quick conclusions: Draisaitl is a unicorn, Puljujarvi is also unique, both ensured later success with hard work, Paajarvi was quality but unable to find a way to score enough to play on a skill line. Horcoff, in my opinion, was similar to Drasaitl and Puljujarvi in that he added elements to his game that elevated his presence. In the interests of full disclosure, I’m am biased about this player.

THE REST OF THE ROOKIES

This is the third group, there’s some interesting players here. There’s one teenager, Yamamoto, and I think we can safely house him in with Paajarvi, Puljujarvi and Draisaitl, fine young players who needed to continue adding to their utility even in pro and into the NHL, and would have benefited from more time off-off-Broadway.

Other young players who made the NHL long enough to play 275+ games (Winchester, VandeVelde, Pitlick, Khaira) carved out a bottom-six role and were consistent in delivering specific things for a team.

That’s where I see McLeod, Benson and Cooper Marody at this time. I believe McLeod might belong in the second group (like Yamamoto) but it’s his work ethic and commitment that will get him there.

What does it mean for McLeod? If he can run his points-per-game total up to the Jarret Stoll zone, and then find a coach who likes him as much as MacT liked Stoll, he could have a long career.

For Benson, it’s imperative that he at least moves the needle a little. Do you remember when MacT said “Brad Winchester needs a second opinion” and that (in regard to Teemu Hartikainen) “at some point you have to contribute some to the offense”? Benson has that in him, but it’s go time now.

Marody is a player I’ve believed in all down the line, but inexplicably he never got a shot after a fairly impressive first NHL audition. I watched him Saturday, happy he got an assist and hopeful he would get some more games this week. The hockey Gods have been most unkind to this young man, the canceled games the latest example. I hope he makes it.

THANKS, WOODCROFT

Woodcroft’s players are all in the third group, but he has sent a few forwards to the NHL and more are coming. How many will play 250+ games? Here’s the list so far, 20+ games in the AHL in order to qualify:

  1. Kailer Yamamoto-134
  2. Patrick Russell-59
  3. Ryan McLeod-28
  4. Josh Currie-22
  5. Tyler Benson-21
  6. Joe Gambardella-15
  7. Cooper Marody-7

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with much to discuss on the Lowdown, we begin at 10 on TSN1260. The Oilers won’t play this week, it should allow most/all to return to the lineup for the Calgary game after Christmas. We’ll chat about the Oilers weekend and the rest of the calendar year at 10, with Jason Gregor joining us at 11. At 10:20, Dan Ralph from The Canadian Press will join us to discuss the CFL offseason and Elks rumblings about new management and coaching hires. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Carter Savoie getting a Hobey Baker mention (one of only 5 players named) via a veteran NCAA hockey writer:

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2021/12/20_Between-the-Lines-Midseason.php

Harpers Hair

League now shut down until after Christmas.

OriginalPouzar

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
33m
Hearing NHL/NHLPA will agree to pause season Wednesday through Christmas Day. Players will return to team facilities on 26th — one day earlier than usual — so that testing can be resumed.

OriginalPouzar

I presume the main reason Hockey Canada pulled out of the Spengler Cup is that that team is likely to be the Olympic Team (give or take) when the NHL/NHLPA pull out and they want to be careful with their health/safety.

Harpers Hair

If both Canada and the U.S.NHL players pull out of the Olympics and the best players from Sweden, Finland and Germany don’t show up…why bother?

OriginalPouzar

What are you on about?

I’m sure Dubnyk, for example, would be very excited to head to the Olympics, just like Rene Bourque and Gilbert Brule, etc. were in 2018.

leadfarmer

Did anyone want to watch any team with Nhlers play the Chinese national team?

Harpers Hair

No…and they certainly won’t watch a bunch of failed players engaging on a worst on worst hockey tournament,

Ranford.85

Doesn’t matter who’s on the Olympic team, it’s team Canada and it’s hockey! Just like the World Juniors or the Spengler. Pathetic patriotism on your behalf. And to call them “failed players” haha what have you done with your life that’s so great lol!

Harpers Hair

Joe Pavelski just keeps on ticking.

He has scored the 1st goal of the game tonight against the Wild.

The 37 year old now with 12 goals on the season…on pace for 34.

Reja

I just caught the tail end of him breaking down and bawling his eyes out. Do you know what that was all about?

Harpers Hair

Sorry…didn’t see it.

leadfarmer

I didn’t see Ty Dellandrea out there either

Prairie_Sentinel

His teammate Tanner Kero got absolutely crushed by Brett Connolly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTMtxMVtn28

Harpers Hair

That was last game.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, there was a last game and Pavelski had a very emotional response after the game.

Harpers Hair

Not a good night for goalies.

Dallas has scored 3 goals on their first 6 shots.

Minnesota with 2 goals on 7 shots.

godot10

The NFL is takoig an interesting course correction. It appears they are going to test the vaccinated less (even though the vaccines are pretty useless against Omicron infection), and really only shutdown the players (and coaches) who show symptoms.

The infections they are getting but mostly asymptomatic. If you are asymptomatic, and nobody knows you are infected, you can play. The NFL and the NFLPA seem to have agreed to this.

This wouldn’t really work for the NHL since the they are not mostly outside, and one can get a lot of cross infection between teams that is not being seen in the NFL.

Fuhrious

even though the vaccines are pretty useless against Omicron infection

-I’m pretty sure you mean poor efficacy at completely preventing any infection from occurring at all, as it so far seems that the vaccine is very useful against infection from the point of severity.

-Also, not sure you can say vaccines are useless against Omicron infection when UK data shows the vaccine + booster is 70-80% effective at preventing infection (which is really quite good). Early to know how accurate that number is, but looks good.

Genjutsu

Yes and early indications are that being infected with Omicron while vaccinated might not only have mild to no symptoms it maybe make for a “super immunity” against possible future variants that might be more serious.

New Improved Darkness

I’m guessing you read that after the university’s PR department weighed in. There was a study done on bad science reporting, and it wasn’t the scientists, and it wasn’t the journalists, it was mainly university PR departments inventing phrases such as “super immunity” years before any respectable researcher would venture such a term. Nine times out of ten, “immunity” in this context is an incorrect phrasing of “blood antigen response”. We don’t actually have a comprehensive measure of immunity apart from sifting epidemiological outcomes, never playing out in the same population twice.

Fuhrious

Yes, I find university press releases very low on truth. They usually show us the wording for approval, but they don’t always, so you never really know who is at fault for the inaccuracies. In my experience it’s driven more by enthusiasm and poor skills in the PR office than bad faith, but some of those releases, especially the “new tech” ones like batteries make me wonder.

godot10

Can you point to a peer reviewed published article that verifies your claim? Perhaps a preprint? Or is it just a press release.

Fuhrious

As I stated above, it’s early to put an accurate number, but this is a reasonable source, not a hopium one. UK health authority puts out very detailed updates very regularly. This number was from: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042367/technical_briefing-31-10-december-2021.pdf

Was there some peer reviewed source for your “vaccines are pretty useless against omicron infection”?

Fuhrious

This result also makes some sense given the test tube studies of antibodies still working reasonably in the blood of those boosted (or having unboosted vax + prior infection with other strain).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.08.21267491v1.full.pdf

T-cells after just the regular vax series still working pretty well to it looks like in the early returns. Omicron’s only been known of for weeks, so hard to know much with accuracy yet.

godot10

I believe that report (if you are talking about Figure 7) is 70% effective against symptomatic disease, not infection.

Even the article in its summary says so.

“early estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection find a significantly lower VE for against Omicron infection compared to Delta infection. Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75% is seen in the early period after a booster dose”

2 US Senators tripled vaxxed. Infected.

Omicron spreading like wildfire through fully vaxxed sports teams.

Jim Cramer, triple vaxxed, caught it at an event where fully vaccination plus a PCR test was required.

Spread it to his triply vaxxed coworker Carl Quintania after a daily rapid test turned up negative for covid.

The report doesn’t say anything about how effective the vaccines are against infection alone.

Fuhrious

A triple-shot of vax is 75% effective against symptomatic cases, so by definition there’s 25% where it doesn’t work and yet you’re listing a couple of anecdotal cases like that is somehow surprising to you and should prove some point….? (note: limiting a bug to only 25% of it’s original transmission rate–likely actually well below 25% given lowered viral load–basically turns a virus that spreads exponentially to one that is dying out).

And, why are you bringing up transmission in 2-shot-only NHL teams after we established you need the 3rd shot? It’s like you just enjoy listing data points that prove the math I provided.

You keep asking for data but then providing only wishful thinking on your part.

You’re also describing the difference between efficiency against symptomatic infection like it’s some gotcha or like someone is hiding the number vs. asymptomatic infections from you. Efficiency is listed against symptomatic cases because that is the important number, and so that is the metric used in all the studies (Yes, at the pandemic’s beginning, at least one vax study did do the every-day-swab required to track asymptomatic infections, but you just can’t feasibly do that for a study of thousands of people). There’s just no good reason for you to march out on this limb of claiming symptomatic cases aren’t the thing to track.

Scungilli Slushy

With respect your comment is full of contradictions

I hate how this ‘issue’ has played out

Not the place to lay it out

Scungilli Slushy

Issue being Covid not your comment

OriginalPouzar

Drai (and McDavid) would never allow Woody to be head coach if he limits shift lengths……. I’m just kidding.

Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
41m
“We are asking him to lower his shift length, so he can play faster more often. I’m very excited about how far he much more he can grow. I think this has been an excellent year for his development,” Woodcroft on Broberg. #Oilers #Condors

Oil2Oilers

I heard him on Oilers Now, talking about how the call ups have allowed Samorukov to have a much bigger role for the last few games. Hopefully this plays dividends later.

leadfarmer

As predicted, league is looking at shutting down tomorrow

OriginalPouzar

Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
1h
Sources say there has been conversation today about a possible league-wide shutdown effective tomorrow. The situation remains very fluid. No decision yet.

Now just 7 games left before Christmas break.

44 games have been postponed this season, 39 in last 7 days.

leadfarmer

Well tonight 1 out of 5 games being played
2 out of 10 tomorrow
0 out of 4 Wednesday
And already 10out of 15 on Thursday cancelled
so not very fluid
not much left to cancel

OriginalPouzar

Per Mark Masters:

Team https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f1e8-1f1e6.svg with some new lines today 

Perfetti – Wright – Bourgault 
Johnson – McTavish – Bourque 
Neighbours – Greig – Sourdif 
Cuylle – Desnoyers – Guenther 
       Stankoven – Bedard 

Only the third line is unchanged 

Yukon Jerk

Now even coach Cameron knows,
Perfect assimilation is at hand,
resistance is futile

Last edited 2 years ago by Yukon Jerk
meanashell11

Cuylle. I know this family. If there is a power forward who is a bit under the radar, this is the guy. I would trade for him before the rags know what they have.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Two things come to mind, and I ask given your intel on Kemp (which is greatly appreciated, btw).

Who is a reasonable comparable for Cuylle?

Cuylle is one of the most naturally gifted one-touch scorers in this year’s draft. Put the puck on his stick, and he’ll do the rest. Cuylle is a technically gifted shooter. He’s got so much upper-body strength on that 6-foot-2, 201-pound frame of his, and he puts it to good use generating quick-release wrist shots explode off his stick’s blade.

Source: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/537552/will-cuylle

And given he’s a relatively recent and high draft pick (2020 2nd round, 60th overall) what gives you any indication (if any) that the NYR would be willing to move him so soon (managerial orphan, perhaps)?

Actually, third thing… what’s the phonetic pronunciation, basically like Charlie Coyle?

meanashell11

The pronunciation is “cooley”. I’m not sure who I would compare him to. Definitely no one on the current Oilers. Maybe Josh Anderson? He is a super fine kid. Very mature.

ArmchairGM

Perhaps it’s been discussed here ad nauseam, but what is the consensus on Jakob Chychrun? Is he an elite player worthy of a Jack Eichel return or merely a good 2nd pairing guy who went on a heater last year?

(I’m not looking to discuss trade value exactly, I’m more looking to see what the smart people here think of Chychrun as a player.)

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I do not have time right now to transcribe all the numbers, but I looked through Chychrun’s fancies over the last few seasons (e.g. his dff% and gf%) and they look very good. This season he is getting crushed by the pdo pony. I will post the numbers later if I have time.

I would rate him as a very good 2 or 3 dman. But, as I said the other day, he is a hard player to evaluate because Arizona is so bad. Also, he has a very good contract for what he brings.

Ryan

Yeah, there is some wobble for sure. He’s -29.

3.8 ga/60 and 1.1 gf/60 over 489 minutes at 5v5 this season.

Those are some crazy numbers.

It’s hard to evaluate top d on really bad teams, but those are still ugly.

Even for a bad team like Arizona, I’d imagine it’s hard to garner the Eichel package for him currently.

Edit– I still think he’s a very good player, but wonder about injury or something else.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

.911 pdo. 86.75 %ONSV.

Injury and/or bad luck. He is too young to have hit the wall.

ArmchairGM

Those numbers are concerning. I don’t recall Chabot posting numbers like that despite being on some pretty bad teams. If you look at “Rels” over the past 2+ seasons you’d think Chychrun would sparkle like a diamond, but he doesn’t. He’s just not moving the needle much even in comparison with his crappy teammates.

I’m worried that we’re seeing a good 2nd pairing defenseman who went on a shooting heater last year in the weakest division. I’m very leery of overpaying because of this – the talk is two 1sts + a good prospect + a player, which is just ridiculous based on what I’m seeing. That’s why I’m asking this community, there are many more knowledgeable here than me. Is this guy really worth as much as Jack Eichel? What am I missing?

jp

Based on numbers I agree with you. Even with Rels he good but no evidence of anything special.

I haven’t watched him much though, and it’s very possible the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

leadfarmer

He’s legit
I think he’s a little better than Nurse

Jethro Tull

The contract certainly is.

Reja

Nurse hasn’t peaked yet and I don’t think he will until he’s 30.

leadfarmer

Chychrun is 23
I don’t think he’s peaked yet and think he is better than Nurse and has a higher ceiling than Nurse and it’s no slight to Nurse

godot10

Chycrhun has availability issues that Nurse doesn’t. You may be trading for “Klefbom”.

OriginalPouzar

“Better than Nurse” is an arguable point but certainly debatable.

Ryan

You know what, I am not sure, but by the numbers that Ghostbear trade is sure looking good for Arizona.

The ghost is playing 21:43 per game. He has 18 points in 25 games. Second in TOI/g to Chychrun with way better fancies. 1.59 points/60.

He looked like a plus skater and IIRC he was on against McDavid a lot when we played Arizona.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
jp

His numbers do look very good. The Flyers had to pay to get rid of him though, so that’s also part of the equation.

Randle McMurphy

FWIW, Bob Stauffer says Hard No on Chychrun. Not sure if he’s basing it on the ask. But says based on people who see him play regularly, no thank you.

leadfarmer

I’m sure it’s related to spending Broberg Bourgealt first plus to add to the leftorium that already has nurse and Keith

GordieHoweHatTrick

Benson should be given as much rope as Gazdic, no?

JOFA

Benson is an enforcer?

Ryan

What’s the most number of games, in recent years, that a forward skater has played in single season of the NHL without getting a single point?

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
Ryan

This season, it’s Riley Nash at 19 games.

Last year, it was Ryan MacInnis at 16 games.

The year before that Joona Luoto at 16 games.

For 2018-19, it was our very own Brad Malone at 16 games.

Benson’s played 14 games with a clean sheet this season.

Man, the grip on Benson’s stick must be getting awfully tight.

GordieHoweHatTrick

I think it gets tighter sitting on the bench for 55 minutes a game.

JOFA

Benson averages 7:45

JOFA

Especially after Marody grabs a point in his first game, and Griffith could have had a point too.

GordieHoweHatTrick

What was Derek Ryan’s recent streak? 20 games or something like that?

jp

Most GP for a forward with zero points in an NHL season since 2000-01:

Rastis Ivans 09-10 61GP
Colton Orr 13-14 54GP
Eric Boulton 11-12 51GP

Most since McDavid entered the league:
Garrett Wilson 15-16 29GP
Reiley Nash 21-22 19GP
Cody Bass 15-16 17GP

Benson tied for 14th with 14GP (Paquette also with an active 16 game streak).

At least Benson managed an apple in his first stint!

Ryan

Thanks.

Wow, I’m impressed.That’s way too fast and thorough to have been done manually.

Okay, so the first three guys are obviously pugilists, so they count only with an Asterix.

Wilson also has a very active fight card, so we can’t really count him either.

Really, even Cody Bass though not a huge guy, he’s got a really active fight card.

Benson really needs to post a crooked number quickly.

jp

Agree, he does.

It was pretty easy to find actually using the various filters on NHL.com.

Here’s the list of guys from 15-16 to 20-21.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?aggregate=0&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20152016&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&position=F&filter=points,lte,0&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=gamesPlayed&page=0&pageSize=50

Ryan

I went there first, but oddly on my work computer, I keep getting this message for more than a few weeks now, “OOF! We aren’t able to display that page right now. Please try again in a little while.”

jp

I’m on there pretty regularly and very rarely have any problems.

Maybe your workplace is saying “OOF! get back to your damn job! Please try again when you’re off the clock.”

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Benson needs to post numbers but I doubt it happens. It is difficult to post crooked numbers when you average 7:45 a game.

Benson is no world-beater but he certainly has not been put in a position to succeed. Scoring in the NHL is a combination of ability and opportunity. He might be a player, the Oilers will never find out based on their usage of the player.

Reja

Benson at least gets in the oppositions grill. He’s about the only player to do this regularly since Archie left. We need a pest never thought it would be Benson. Just give the man some ice time and maybe he’ll relax and show the world he’s elite with his passing skills.

Prairie_Sentinel

I know it’s not recent years, but our current Director of Amateur Scouting/Player Personnel played put up bagels in 61 games in 98-99 with the Penguins

Sierra

Why? Don’t times change?

JOFA

1 assist in 21 games played, but it was a nice one😉

GordieHoweHatTrick

I know you can’t wait for him to go play in Europe, but I think he still deserves a bit more audition time, preferably with a bit more ice time like he got in the last game.

YYCOil

I feel like the Oiler’s are managing a lot of young professional hockey players;

Early in their career

1. Puljajarvi – 1RW
2.Bouchard – 1RHD
3.Yamamoto – 2/3 RW

Breaking into the NHL

1.McLeod – 3C
2.Skinner -2G
3.Benson – 4LW
4.Niemelainen 3RHD
5.Lagesson 3LHD
6.Marody – 13th forward

Percolating in the AHL

1.Broberg – 2LHD
2.Samorukov – 3LHD
3.Lavoie -2 RW/LW
4.Konovalov 2G

Not playing pro hockey

1.Holloway 2LW
2.Savoie 1/2 LW
3.Bourgault 3RW

Randle McMurphy

This is timely.

Where’s Tullio? 🙂

Munny 2.0

And the Russian Rifle.

ArmchairGM

Couple guys missing as mentioned above. And Holloway is a center.

OriginalPouzar

and Niemelainen is a LD.

Holloway is a center but may be a winger at the NHL level – he could be a center too, of course, but we don’t know at this point.

ArmchairGM

When a player is as dominant as Holloway is playing center at the NCAA level, it doesn’t make sense to project him at another position in pro hockey.

OriginalPouzar

Lots of dominant centers outside the NHL become wingers in the NHL.

I’m not projecting him either way but simply stating that, at this point, both are reasonable options at the NHL level.

Part of may be dependant on organizational needs – for example, if McLeod pops as a 3C heading in to next season and there is no major external acquisition in the top 6, Holloway could fill a top 6 winger spot.

I am in no way discounting his potential to play center at the NHL level (in time) – time will tell.

ArmchairGM

Name me 3 19 year olds who dominated a high level league that couldn’t make it as an NHL center. Please. I can’t think of any.

jp

Nuge, Turris and Marody :p

OriginalPouzar

Jason Bonsignore, Masson Appelton…… etc., etc., etc.

I also never said he couldn’t make it as an NHL center.

He very well might but maybe he’s a solid 3C but a great top 6 winger? If McLeod is thriving at 3C there are options.

Holloway may very well be a full time center at the NHL level but he very well may be a winger or play both positions. We just don’t know.

Shit, Leon Draisaitl lines up a LW on the Oilers quite often.

Harpers Hair

Often, where a player is slotted is a function of the opportunity presented.

For example…in the case of Mason Appleton in Winnipeg…he was behind their more established centres.

Scheifle

Dubois

Statsny (who also plays wing)

Lowry

In Seattle…

Gourde

Schwartz

Wennberg

The Kraken have opted to play Appleton at wing but that doesn’t mean he cannot play centre in the NHL…just that there are multiple options.

Jared McCann is also a centre but has been shifted to wing for the most part due to roster construction.

OriginalPouzar

That’s nice. Of course, its misleading given Appelton was not able to make it as a center on the Jets even without Dubois or Stastny on the team with Brian Little as their 2C.

Appelton is a winger at the NHL level – end stop.

jp

I was trying to be cute rather than picking a side. But I do think Holloway is equally likely to play C/LW in the NHL.

As has been said, where he’s more needed is like the biggest factor in where he ends up (though by reports (IIRC) he was slated to play C in Bakersfield so the org definitely sees him as a potential C at the NHL level).

Far more than which position he ultimately plays, whether he heals properly and whether he can bring his NCAA offense to pro with him are the questions I’m most interested in.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t disagree with any of that – pretty much in line with my original point.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Where would you estimate Holloway to have a greater value for the organization, 3c or top-6 LW?

Bit of a catch-22, to me, because he seems to have high utility in either scenario.

OriginalPouzar

I think part of the answer to that question is how the rest of the roster is constructed. I mean if McLeod really settles in as 3C and continued to develop/improve through the season, Holloway as 2LW, as opposed to 3C/4C with McLeod seems somewhat prudent (of course, if he’s ready for the top 6 wing).

Randle McMurphy

It does for the 1st two years.

leadfarmer

https://youtu.be/aaSY_cfyykA

when Mcdavid did this he was a “bad leader”

Jethro Tull

Well, he’s not Sprong.

jp

And he still doesn’t have the team eating right either.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
leadfarmer

Only one of the 5 games tonight to be actually played and all Wednesday games postponed. Just shut it down for the week already

Randle McMurphy

Which game is being played?

Boil-in-the-Oil

According to Sportsnet… Min vs Dallas

leadfarmer

When is the nhl gonna announce Olympic pullout?
Gonna need that Olympic break to catch up on cancelled games

JimmyV1965

Not sure that’s possible. Most of the facilities are already booked with different events during the Olympic break.

JOFA

That and the majority of the league that wasn’t going to participate has planned vacation/downtime. I’m not sure this would go over well with the PA

Shane

I was wondering about this also. Not sure about the logistics but there’s three weeks in February there to try and make up games.

jp

You’d think at least some of the games could be made up then, between the existing non-NHL bookings.

Randle McMurphy

Plus, if these make-up games do not include fans in the seats, they could be played in alternative/alternate venues.

Sierra

This is what I was thinking too.

JimmyV1965

I’m not sure team owners – players as well – would be keen to have even more games that generate no revenue. They would probably prefer to delay everything and have the season extended into the summer.

tileguy

Exactly, wouldn’t be the first time plywood was laid on the ice for a concert.

Tarkus

After putting up 4+3 in two games on the weekend, Ty Tullio has been named OHL Player of the Week.

Randle McMurphy

FINALLY. Our Answer to the Taylor vs Tyler debate.

Aside from your coverage, is there a reason that Tullio doesn’t seem to get the same love/mention on this site as Bourgault, Savoie and Petrov ?

Tarkus

I suspect that, despite his recent outburst, he doesn’t have the gaudy goal counts like the other three. He still has more than twice as many assists as goals.

That said, the video evidence in the link i posted demonstrates he is well capable of both gripping it and ripping it.

Ryan

Petrov, despite being from a more recent draft year (aka him being a 2003 vs Tullio being a 2002), has 11 more points having played only 3 more games.

That Petrov pick is looking really great for a 6th rounder.

Still, good to see all of the forward players bubbling under with Tullio included.

I really like the way Bourgault played in the preseason. I also like that he’s a coveted right shot centre.

Over the next few year things will get interesting with Holloway, Bourgeault, Tullio, Savoie and Petrov in the mix for NHL jobs.

jp

And don’t forget Raphael Lavoie and his 5 point night last week.

He was very much in this conversation too until his slow start (all of 18 games).

Ryan

Yeah, good to see Lavoie getting back on track.

ArmchairGM

Bourgault is a RW. If he doesn’t play center in junior there’s no way he’ll switch when he turns pro.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Is he? He is listed as a center on every prospect page I could find.

ArmchairGM

He’s listed as a C/R all over the place but takes fewer than 30 faceoffs per season. I don’t think we can project him at center as a pro.

Last edited 2 years ago by ArmchairGM
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Remember when Hall was played at center? Good times!

jp

And Ryan Smyth. 😞

Ryan

I see that. Maybe an upgrade for 2RW as soon as next season!

ArmchairGM

Mitigating factors: Petrov is 2nd on his team to linemate Coe, while Tullio is leading his team by 10 points.

Don’t get me wrong, I have high hopes for Petrov, but they aren’t as far apart this year as the counting numbers indicate IMO.

OriginalPouzar

Tulio is a bit older and in draft plus 2 (and played some pro hockey last season). Truth be told, for me, what he’s doing is not quite as impressive as Bourgault or Petrov in their draft plus 1 seasons.

ArmchairGM

Playing in an obscure European pro league last year didn’t help.

OriginalPouzar

What does this mean for that Sniffles guy?

OriginalPouzar

As far as Bourgault and playing center, he was asked about that shortly after the draft (can’t remember if it was on the Gregor Show or Oilers Now) and while he said he could play center and is willing to play anywhere, of course, he played predominantly wing last season and is most comfortable on thew ing.

Justthestatsman

Just wondering if any of you might have intel to share about possible ticket refunds. Thinking of getting tickets to a game in January, but wondering about a game cancellation or reduced seating situation. Did the Oilers offer refunds or just credit after the season shutdown in 2020? Did it make a difference if you had ‘Verified Resale’ tickets? Were any refunds face value of the ticket or the price paid in the case of the Verified Resale tickets? Thank you for your help!

ristojalo

When the season was shortened in 2020, I was refunded for the games I still had in my account. I received a refund on my credit card a few months later. For the ones I had sold on Ticketexchange, I’m assuming the Oilers sent the buyers a refund but I’m not sure for what amount. So I was able to keep the profit for games I sold through that website.

This year, I’ve noticed that ticketexchange doesn’t actually pay the seller until 7-10 after the game actually takes place. In previous years, the seller would get paid a couple weeks after the sale no matter when the game was scheduled. I’m assuming they are doing that so that if the game gets cancelled, the buyer is refunded by Ticketexchange and the tickets revert back to the seller.

So I would guess that if you buy resale tickets through Ticketexchange and the game is cancelled, you will be refunded what you paid.

Harpers Hair

Frank Seravalli reporting Oilers have a bunch of new positive cases.

jp
Last edited 2 years ago by jp
godot10

We’ll get to see how effective McDavid’s acquired immunity through infection is. The virus is slicing through the doubly and triply vaxxed like a hot knife through butter.

Hoppers Hare

I’m sure this is all Josh Archibalds fault. *ducks*

Harpers Hair
Sierra

Integrity, look it up.

Side

I am more interested in the legend of Ty Dellandrea.

The legend goes he has the ability to make posters talk about him at length and then later lie about ever discussing him.

jp

But that ability extends to pretty much the entire hockey world save possibly parts of Northern Alberta. I’m not sure if that makes it more or less impressive..

Personally I’m more interested in the growing legend of TY Tullio than an undersized 25 year old who managed 0.67 points/per game over 4 AHL seasons and only got a call to the Caps due to a rash of injuries and covid cases. And who we’ve only heard of because of his name. But that could be just me.

Side

You want to discuss Ty Tullio? Really? What do you think this is, an Oilers blog or something?

Admiral Ackbar

You seem to speak through that foot in your mouth quite easily. You must get a lot of practice.

On the post, who cares? Every team has meaningless puff pieces like that a few times a season. This week it’s the Caps. What you’re doing isn’t working.

Bryan

I have high hopes for McLeod. His skating is elite and his defensive awareness is also very good so that will earn him a lot of rope with coaches. It would be interesting to see him with Benson and Marody for a stretch but I doubt that Tippet would give them any real ice time. More realistic would be for Nuge to slide down to the third line to play with McLeod and perhaps Perlini. I believe that the young man has more offence to offer in the right situation.

Jethro Tull

His skating is not elite. McDavid, MacKinnon are elite. McLeod’s is very good. NHL level, certainly. Just not elite.

ArmchairGM
Jethro Tull

So nobody else skates like him?

If he was an elite skater, then he wouldn’t be a borderline 3rd line center. His elite skating would have already been enough to separate him from the grinders.

Now does this mean he can never be an elite center? No. But let’s call a spade a spade here. Elite skaters include Crosby, McDavid, MacKinnon, Lidstrom, Neidermeyer, Coffey and now apparently, McLeod. You see how one of these things is not like the others?

He is a good skater in the NHL, which is no small potatoes. He is a very useful player who I think could mature into something better. But elite? That’s a stretch.

Ask yourself the likelihood of if in 20yrs time you’re sat at the bar with your buddies and talking about the NHL’s best skaters. What are the odds anyone will ever bring up McLeod?

And please don’t post links to articles that are behind a paywall.

kelvjn

Would Todd Marchant made the exclusive list of elite skater?

Munny 2.0

I think you’ve defended your position well. (You missed Bure and Orr 😉 )

Of course, this all comes down to what “elite” means (and what “exceptional” confers).

And I would add that there are subsets of skating involved here:

McLeod looks to me like he has elite speed between the blue lines and into the zone. His first three steps are very agile but not elite. His edges and ability to cut are very good but not leet. His ability to make plays at speed, which is truly what separates the players you list, might be his weakest aspect but has the least to do with actual skating.

If “Elite” means the top, then there is clearly only one. 97. After that we’re arguing over how broad the definition is.

I think there’s a good chance people are arguing past each other here a little bit.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

For me, any discussion of Bure as an elite skater (and by gum, he certainly was) needs to include Fedorov.

Otherwise, I think you’re bang on in your assessment.

jp

Is “exceptional” a more palatable word for you?

In short, no.

Jethro Tull

Elite post 🙂

doctoreye

It’s time to reunite Benson,McLeod,and Marody for a few games to form an effective fourth line.With the AHL chemistry,they may be the answer to a fourth line that can outscore the opposition.

GordieHoweHatTrick

It has to be done before Tipp gets back…

OriginalPouzar

Chemistry from the AHL, from the CHL, from minor hockey, from the exhibition season – simply does not translate to the NHL level except the very rare occasion.

Sure, give it a try if there are still multiple forwards out but I don’t think we’ll see the AHL-magic rekindled.

fishman

Heard Jesse made it home last night. Was glad to hear that!

Todd Macallan

Just awesome news on a human level.

tileguy

Any details on how this was achieved?

ArmchairGM

Charter.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Thanks goodness. Now I don’t have to write him a letter to cheer him up!

Admiral Ackbar

Home to…, Edmonton? Or…?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Elk Island.

OriginalPouzar

Garfield is NOT a source.

leadfarmer

Kind of a strange thing to make up. No??

OriginalPouzar

That source makes up things multiple times throughout ever season and off-season.

jp

That source makes up things multiple times throughout ever season and off-season.

How do you know they’re made up though?

I had a look through them back to June and it was all pretty reasonable stuff.

Some definitely could be made up (in talks about trading Kassian, shopping Benson for a pick, etc), but those seem plausibly true to me.

And lots of other stuff could be just parroting stuff that’s out there, but could also have been legit intel: Saying Bear likely moved back in June, Jones as part of the Keith trade, Neal to be bought out, Ceci signing before it was official (maybe already reported since it was earlier the same day).

I’m taking it all with a large grain of salt, but also not dismissing it outright.

jp

Garfield is NOT a source.

I know she (?) isn’t a very reliable source, but hasn’t she gotten a few obscure things right over the years?

Side

He did make the correct calls on Mondays being ass and lasagna being pretty great.

Jethro Tull

Béchamel is a sauce.

Jethro Tull

Mondays are now ass and lasagna days.

OriginalPouzar

What was that, once, years ago?

Multiple, multiple, multiple, face-news tweets through every season and off-season.

Randle McMurphy

From Dr. Hook.

“Garfield?, Garfield?, who the f#ck is Garfield?!”

But seriously, is it Harrison Katz ?

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Halfwise

LT does the hard work that most of us can’t or won’t. Thanks as always, sir.

Seems to me there’s room beside #BecauseOilers for a smaller group: #DespiteOilers

Randle McMurphy

LT is the Stan Weir of the Blogosphere.

leadfarmer

Thought I’d repost it from last thread as it’s big news
but Garfield reporting Klef is planning a comeback in 3 months

leadfarmer

I’m just happy to hear his shoulder feels good enough to even think about a comeback

Randle McMurphy

And I think his timing would be exceptionally good in terms of the lifecycle of the pandemic.

Sierra

Link?

I don’t recall seeing a link posted yesterday either.

Sierra

So no actual link to something Garfield wrote or stated?

jp

Is there ever? I think all of Garfield’s ‘intel’ comes in that form through @TreenasOil (I could be mistaken on that though).

leadfarmer

Yes

Scungilli Slushy

Not sure how they fit him in

And what length of time to get his sea legs back

Bill

In a perfect scenario, having Klef back would be aces. But there’s the salary cap and how is the shoulder going to hold up? If he comes back and gets nailed, the shoulder blows apart again all of this for nothing. I just hope the young man has a decent life after all this, a broken body ain’t bueno.

jp

Re: cap I posted this earlier this morning on yesterdays thread.

It would be surprisingly possible cap-wise. 

This roster is cap compliant (311k to spare):

Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi

Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

Foegele-McLeod-Kassian

Shore-Ryan-Sceviour

Benson

Nurse-Bouchard

Keith-Ceci

Klefbom-Barrie

Lagesson

Smith-Koskinen

It required running with only 13 forwards, plus waiving Russell and Turris (LTIR would also work), so not ‘easy’ by any means but not as impossible as I figured. 

There would also need to not be any IR guys being paid but not playing (or alternatively any injured guys would need to be put on LTIR and unavailable for 14 days). 

Obviously trades of Koskinen, Kassian or Barrie could also make space available.

Good timing for a dreamy rumor like this 🙂

Bill

Thanks for the info! Hypothetically it could be aces after all.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

This is good news, if indeed true.

One nit to pick, is when I mirrored your roster on CapFriendly my cap space was more than $311k at $436,032.

So by all means possible, if risky considering the health of some of our guys. What would an in-season injury scenario look like, beyond one forward and one defenseman? Is there an emergency call up provision in the CBA to cover such a circumstance?

jp

Not sure why the discrepancy but we’re in the same ball park at least. It could be done.

I don’t know about any injury provisions but I guess LTIR could be used for any injured player if they really need a call up.

My favorite cap clearing scenario I think is Koskinen tweaking something and going on LTIR. Then staying there instead of being moved for cap or waived (this assumes Smith healthy and Skinner continuing to play well). So you get some extra cap space from Koskinen and get to keep him for insurance.

Anyway, I’m pretty far down the path of hopeful things that *could* happen but won’t at this point so I’ll stop.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Players can’t be initially assigned to the LTIR, can they? Or is that allowed if it’s readily apparent that they’ll be out for more than two weeks?

OriginalPouzar

A player placed on LTIR needs to be out for a min of 10 games or 30 days.

jp

I thought it was 14 days but am looking now and it’s 10 games or 24 days.

That does make it more difficult than I though, though still not impossible.

Edit: 10 game AND 24 days.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

Sorry, the 30-days I referenced was for needing to re-clear waivers, my mistake.

jp

Fairly certain they can be placed directly on LTIR if the injury is expected to be severe. The issue is that once placed there they need to spend a min amount of time before they’re allowed to return. I thought it was only 14 days but I was mistaken. It seems to be 10 games missed AND 24 days missed (so the wording seems to say the longer of the two).

OriginalPouzar

I think its the shorter – if a player misses 10 games in 23 days, for example, he can be re-activated off LTIR. I’m not 100% sure on that but believe so.

As an aside, the league has now ruled the postponed games count towards the 10.

jp

Cool, thanks.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Is this the same Garfield that likes lasagna?

Last edited 2 years ago by GordieHoweHatTrick
OriginalPouzar

Its a damn shame the Bouchard’s current season can’t be included due to an antiquated and outdated CBA rule.

One quick note on that last paragraph: In the cases of Draisaitl, Puljujarvi and (later) Kailer Yamamoto, it’s quite clear the Oilers as an organization pushed these men to the NHL too soon.

The one think I want to note on the above is that I’m highly confident that it was Jesse’s agency that pushed him to the NHL at 18 (and actually required a “deal” that he was on the roster for 40 games to burn a year towards UFA in order for his to sign – he was sent down the day after 40 games on the roster).

Randle McMurphy

It’s right there in the NHL Rule Book.

Page 63; Paragraph 4;

” “Oiler” and “Calder” are mutually exclusive”

godot10

I think this is the wrong way to look at it. The two sides couldn’t agree on a development path and agreed to the worst possible compromise.

Most of the blame should fall on Chiarelli. There is nothing wrong with leaving an 18-year old in Europe. He wanted to force him over, and hence the stupid agreement. Plus Chiarelli did NOT have alignment with McLellan on the development plan.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know what the Oilers preferred development path for Puljujarvi was at the time but I’m confident the above was required to get him under an NHL contract. Perhaps the Oilers wanted him under contract and the loaned back to Karpat (and not forced to North America).

What I do know is that Jesse was finally sent dow to the AHL immediately after the free agency vesting threshold was meant and that was not just a concidance and I’m highly certain was mandated by Jesse’s agency or Jesse wouldn’t have signed an NHL ELC at the time.

Sure, I guess Chiarelli could have not signed the kid at the time but I think they wanted his name on ink providing the Oilers some control over him.