Do you remember the end of last season for the Bakersfield Condors? They won the Pacific Division, Tyler Benson scoring the winner, Stuart Skinner playing well in goal and Raphael Lavoie posting some crooked numbers, too. I have to say the Jay Woodcroft-Dave Manson years have been most enjoyable for this fan of player development and the team building process.
The 2021-22 season has been another one with quick developments in the prospect pool and plenty of airline tickets handed out. So much fun when young players have success.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
FARM WORKERS 2021 DECEMBER
I’ve been doing the farm workers updates since 2011 and it’s been a lot of fun watching rookies graduate to the NHL. Sometimes it takes a couple of seasons, but the quality is there for Edmonton (future feature players in bold and living colour).
- 2011-12: Colten Teubert (24); Teemu Hartikainen (17); Ryan O’Marra (7); Chris VandeVelde (5); Alex Plante (3); Phil Cornet (2); Milan Kytnar (1).
- 2012-13: Chris VandeVelde (11); Mark Arcobello (1).
- 2013-14: Martin Marincin (44); Mark Arcobello (41); Oscar Klefbom (17); Tyler Pitlick (10); Taylor Fedun (4); Brad Hunt (3).
- 2014-15: Oscar Klefbom (60); Tyler Pitlick (17); Iiro Pakarinen (17); Brandon Davidson (12); Andrew Miller (9); Jordan Oesterle (6); David Musil (4); Bogdan Yakimov (1); Curtis Hamilton (1); Laurent Brossoit (1); Tyler Bunz (1).
- 2015-16: Iiro Pakarinen (63); Brandon Davidson (51); Jordan Oesterle (17); Jujhar Khaira (15); Anton Slepyshev (11); Laurent Brossoit (5).
- 2016-17: Anton Slepyshev (41); Jesse Puljujarvi (28), Jujhar Khaira (10); Laurent Brossoit (8); Dillon Simpson (3).
- 2017-18: Ethan Bear (18); Keegan Lowe (2).
- 2018-19: Josh Currie (21); Kailer Yamamoto (17); Caleb Jones (17); Joe Gambardella (15); Cooper Marody (6); Patrick Russell (6).
- 2019-20: Ethan Bear (71); Caleb Jones (43); William Lagesson (8); Tyler Benson (7).
- 2020-21: William Lagesson (19); Evan Bouchard (14); Ryan McLeod (10); Stuart Skinner (1).
- 2021-22: Ryan McLeod (18); Tyler Benson (14); Stuart Skinner (10); Philip Broberg (8); Markus Niemelainen (7); Cooper Marody (1).
This list includes only players who spent significant time in the minors. So, even though Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was a rookie in 2011-12 he isn’t listed here, and Darnell Nurse isn’t on the list despite a brief stay in the AHL.
As you can see, the kids coming out of the minors are (for the most part) support players. They will occupy third- and fourth-line roles, third pairing, backup goalies. I have Klefbom, Puljujarvi and Bouchard as being feature players, perhaps Ethan Bear or Kailer Yamamoto will spend enough time in skill positions to receive credit for being foundation players. I’m giving Puljujarvi and Bouchard credit already based on their draft pedigree and current trajectory.
If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular at 20, it bodes well for an NHL career, but does not guarantee it.
Tyler Benson is the best example of what can happen even when a player delivers a quality season in the AHL at age 20. Are his skills transferrable? The skill wingers don’t stop on the Bakersfield milk run.
There are 16 players since 2010 who played successfully as AHL regulars age 20. They are: Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Kailer Yamamoto, Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Mike Kesselring and this season Philip Broberg.
Broberg has played in the NHL, showing skills and potential, but clearly shy of regular duty. In the AHL he’s playing major minutes and having great success. He looks very good, seems to get better every month.
Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past 21 is having some issues and may spend time meandering.
Of the 16 men who were successful AHL players age 20, eight played in the NHL part-time the following season, one is Philip Broberg (an AHL rookie) and Evan Bouchard didn’t spend any time in the AHL in his second pro season. He’s the one player in the group who stepped through after one season, many of us believing he didn’t need that year to be ready.
We’re seeing “some issues” with Raphael Lavoie, who spent much of the early part of the season not getting to the puck. He’s been coming along lately and had a breakout five-point game just before the break. That’s a good sign. Mike Kesselring is similar to Lavoie in that his game needs more definition, but you can see he has talent.
Samorukov and McLeod are in the window to make the jump, Bouchard and Yamamoto are already there.
One player I would like to mention is Dino Kambeitz. He has played in 12 games, has one goal and doesn’t have the skill to make the NHL. Thing is, he’s a demon worker and has not one ounce of surrender in him. He’s 21, suspect he’ll be in Europe by 25, but for me he’s an easy player to cheer for because of that willingness to work.
If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect by age 22, you’re in trouble. The players who will be successful have played at least some games in the NHL during entry deals.
I think that “some games in the NHL” is a good indicator for AHL players. Much of it is luck, and no one should panic because Dmitri Samorukov hasn’t played in the NHL yet, but the positives in seeing Markus Niemelainen, Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg, Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody are all signs of a productive system.
It helps at the trade deadline, too. Jani Rita played 21 games in the NHL (3-0-3) during 2005-06 and Kevin Lowe traded him with Cory Cross for Dick Tarnstrom. Tony Salmelainen was playing in Finland at the 2006 deadline and Lowe dealt him for Jaroslav Spacek (that was stunning value). Maybe one of these names is a trade piece at the deadline.
Exceptions are college men, who often turn pro at 22.
Dylan Holloway will play his first pro games at age 20, and Mike Kesselring did the same a year ago. Phil Kemp is 22 and plays a quiet, effective defensive game. It would be very easy to overlook his progress and then be surprised by an NHL recall, although we’re not close to that day.
Holloway is the wild card in this entire look at the farm. He’ll be a big part of the spring update. I am surprised Ken Holland hasn’t signed more college free agents, perhaps we’ll see that too in the months to come.
No matter what you and I think about a specific AHL player, the largest category of player in the minors is ‘tweener’.
Most prospects are tweeners. I’m going to list a bunch of them, and someone reading it will post today “I agree with most of your list but Tom Tom Mott isn’t that player” and we all do it. Here’s my list from this century, players I truly believed could play and who proved me wrong: Jani Rita, Slava Trukhno.
Now, here are your current tweeners: Kirill Maksimov (no longer in the organization), Ostap Safin, Filip Berglund, Tim Soderlund, Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson.
If we make a list of rfa’s each summer, we can probably pick the cuts and be pretty close.
Last year’s RFA’s were Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson, Theodor Lennstrom, Stuart Skinner and Dylan Wells. I guessed Edmonton would keep Marody, Benson, Lennstrom and Skinner as keepers, with only Wells exiting.
I missed on Lennstrom.
This year’s RFA list includes William Lagesson, Markus Niemelainen, Ryan McLeod, Tim Soderlund, Ostap Safin, Cooper Marody, Dmitri Samorukov and Filip Berglund.
I’ll pick the Oilers to sign Lagesson, Niemelainen, McLeod, Samorukov and Berglund, allowing Soderlund, Safin and Marody to slide.
Dan Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera are the success stories in this study.
Craig MacTavish had a way of finding players who could thrive in a two-way role and score enough to help teams win. I think Pisani was his great triumph, Chimera (who never did establish himself with MacT) a player the coach overlooked those years ago because his defensive acumen was shy of Pisani-level.
Cleary learned the MacT lessons but didn’t apply them until later in his career.
Edmonton’s AHL team has some of those players bubbling under and moving up. I would suggest Markus Niemelainen has the kind of skill set that could find an NHL job if things break right, and Dmitri Samorukov is cut from the same cloth. Safin has some impressive qualities and if he had more offense my belief is the Oilers would sign him in the offseason.
One player who spent two games in Bakersfield this season who could make the list beside Cleary, Pisani and Chimera in the years to come? Brendan Perlini. Not one doubt in my mind. He’s like Chimera, dynamic qualities but attention to detail without the puck will be a challenge, but he could certainly emerge as a success.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we have the Lowdown on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us at 10:20 to talk about what it’s like to have a planet named after you. Does it have expensive housing? What’s the commute like? We’ll also talk about the Oilers in the Pacific Division, the Olympics and more. Joe Osborne from Odds Shark chimes in at 11 to talk about the holiday games, and we’re pursuing someone to talk about the Calgary Arena and Edmonton Elks as we head toward broadcast time. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
What path do you think Holly take at the deadline?
4 is much easier to achieve than 2, no? 100% agree on 1 but 3 is a component of 1’s success.
Hard to say this early, lots can change. If Smith doesn’t come back in form, goalie will be our biggest need but also biggest cost.
Agreed – we’re three whole months out from the deadline, it’s impossible to know what the landscape will look like at that point.
1. Smith could come back and pick up where he left off with Vezina calibre play
2. Dylan Holloway might be this guy. He might be in Bakersfield as early as next week and he’ll be there for at least a month, but as I said TDL is 3 months away so anything is possible.
3. I don’t think Holland / Tippett will necessarily trust a rookie, but we’ve already seen Niemelainen good, Broberg isn’t far away and we’re about to see Samorukov. 3 months of further development could see one of those guys move up the depth chart.
4. I’m not seeing any solutions on the farm (I guess Lavoie could surprise? It’s a long shot though) but if Yamamoto recreates his 2020 magic is Holland going to spend big on his replacement?
5. Any team with McDavid and Draisaitl on it is an opportunity. This isn’t an option.
Team Canada’s only pre-tournament match will be tomorrow at 5 p.m. Edson time as they battle Mother Russia at Rogers Place. Game will be on TSN.
The Bourg will be wearing #18.
Luca Munzenberger and his fellow Germans are in Red Deer for their only pre-tournament game tomorrow at 2. Unsure whether the game will be streamed somewhere.
The Berger will be donning #15.
Good odds that the game will be available at onhockey dot tv
https://twitter.com/suhkmadiq/status/1473710224976580609?s=21
kind of a funny story
Oilers are not in a position to be trading a lot for rentals, but to make a positive hockey trade, they could do that at any point to pull from an area of relative depth to fix a weaker area. We all know goaltending is still not in with the top tier of the league so almost anyone should be available for the right tender. Aside from that position, I would only be looking to trade picks or deeper depth to cover holes. Trading a guy like Broberg who is on the cusp of being able to play at the NHL level only makes sense if you can trade for a player that is ready now, but still young enough to not be a massive cap hit- nearly impossible.
They are not in a position currently
but let’s say they add Tyler Toffoli and all of a sudden you’ve significantly improved your team to the point you probably win a round or two
The Oilers need Jeff Petry more than they need Tyler Toffoli.
Disagree
the difference between Petry and Bouchard or Ceci is a heck of a lot less than the difference between Yamamoto and Toffoli
And that would be previous years Petry and not this years Petry
Koekkook and Russell are not good enough for the playoffs. Barrie cannot carry a rookie D.
Petry can carry Lagesson/Niemelainen/Broberg/Samorukov on the 3rd pairing. Or Ceci can, and Petry can play with Keith.
Barrie would have to be going the other way in a deal for Petry.
Petry would also ease the burden on Bouchard in his first playoffs.
Nurse, Keith, and the two vets and four rookies is sufficient for the left D for the playoffs. I would rather upgrade the right D with Petry, which also provide a enough vets to break in those young lefties over the next few seasons.
While Petry would be nice he’s not having a good season
thr biggest problem with this team is 5v5 scoring and the main cause of it is having a 20 point player in Yamamoto playing top 6 despite him playing with a 120 point player.
fix that first before splurging on more D
I would posit that the biggest issue is preventing 5 on 5 goals, not scoring them.
You would be correct.
And Tyler Toffoli won’t help with that.
Why is Petry having such an awful season, like really bad? I know his team is awful but there must be much more to it than that.
Is this the cliff at 33/34? That might be a part of it but it can’t account for how steep the drop from just last season.
I’ve got to assume that he’d bounce back big time if on a playoff team but three more years at over $6M give his age and recent level of play…… that’s a risk.
Also, is there any chance the Oilers aren’t on his no trade list? I don’t think he’d waive for Edmonton either, even to get off a terrible team.
With Nemo pushing for a job and Laggy starting to put it together, plus Broberg fermenting, I agree. LD is now a lesser concern than RD. I, too, would be in the market for an RD right now.
Not sure on Petrys contract, but I would love to swap Barrie for him.
However, I think you’re dreaming. It would take a significant add by the Oilers, and I doubt Petry would agree to come back to Edmonton.
Jeff Petry at his age and cap hit for the next three years is not value regardless of the acquisition cost!
Yes. This is not the time.
Wouldn’t that depend on who the 1st and 2nd round opponents are?
I can’t see any good reason to trade very much for these playoffs.
If they get very deep it will be a fluke. Habs style, a mirage.
Which is disappointing, but fine, it is what it is.
It is far more important for the quality of the team over the next 5 years to keep all the quality prospects. The covid cap demands the ELCs. no player will change the fortunes of the team much.
For me the ideal scenario is you have Niems, Bro and Samu all earning an NHL LD spot. And hopefully 3-4 forwards. Then you can keep the best and the best fits, and get proper value for the others who would be NHL ready with some track record so at peak value, restocking the system as the draft position gets worse.
And hopefully keep the cycle going, as Tampa has done to keep itself a Cup contender.
We have gone through so much for so long, and are so close to having a farm that can put players in the NHL roster, it would be DoD folly to change course now and liquidate the currently thin cupboards.
If the summer’s acquisitions had panned out differently, maybe the discussion would be different. But this is where we are now, a third through the season (probably another messed up one it seems) we know what this iteration basically is.
It’s another team development year methinks.
Hernan Salas had Kortney Kenney on the Locked on Oilers podcast yesterday. Kenney is on the game day broadcast for North Bay and they chatted about Petrov for a while. Nothing spectacular but a solid listen if one doesn’t normally listen to that pod.
Today was a guest connected to the Oshawa Generals to talk about Tullio – Haven’t listed to that one yet.
My position on Broberg so far, from my limited viewing and his statistical progression, is that he could easily make LT’s “star” list within a few seasons.
Do not trade away a guy whose top end is unknown. He has all the tools to be an elite, legit #1 D. He is better than Nurse and Bouchard at the same age. He has put up AHL numbers like Chabot and Karlsson.
I’m not saying he’s going to the HoF, I’m just saying nobody knows. Don’t trade him.
You are making some good points, and I’m not trying to discount them or lower the thoughts on Broberg’s ceilings, but trying to put his AHL production in to context.
When comparing to Karlsson and Chabbot, do we know the PP vs. 5 on 5 production of those two?
I know that Klef some little PP time and that Broberg has been PP1 since day 1.
Give non-PP points for Broberg is indeed impressive, I will note that (and the SH assist was a BEAUTY play).
Going to say that trading Broberg is a hard ‘No’ for me – just look to Sergachev in Tampa Bay.
Even with trade deadline upgrades a Cup run this year will take a lot more than a few lucky breaks – so why break a bright future on LD with a trade of Broberg? Makes no sense.
Have never seen the Oilers have this kind of quality depth bubbling under at a position and would hate to waste it on a Division final run or an also-in-the-picture Conference final.
Remain generally supportive of Holland’s work (quite happy with the Ceci signing but it is a mixed bag) but the Keith trade is looking more and more like the trap it always was. This year it is manageable, but it is simply too much salary committed next year. Didn’t like the deal when it happened and looking at it now… just gets worse and worse.
Not sure why Holland thought Keith would be the piece that got this team over-the-top when it was clear the goaltending needed/still needs a major fix but there it is.
Holland’s biggest job right now is fourfold:
. don’t give away the farm on charge-of-the-light-brigade style Cup runs
. sign Puljujarvi to a long-term deal in the $5 to $5.5 million range
. survive the Keith contract, the Kassian contract, the slow-grow Cap, and the Lucic/Sekera dead weight years (some $2.25 million right there)
. continue to keep Woodcraft /Manson happy so the flow of talented and ready-to-start-play youth continues
When I did seriously look at a Chychrun trade it only made sense if Arizona also took back Koskinen and Turris. So the cost goes up. But then there is the issue of the 2022-2023 contracts (Keith), so then Barrie and/or Kassian has to go. So now a third team or other trade (of Barrie).
But now every other GM knows exactly what it is you are trying to do so… that gets expensive.
Is there a fantasy trade – that is also plausible – of Broberg for Chychrun out there that ‘wins’ the deal for the Oilers? Not so sure I see it.
If Keith was brought in to show the guys how to win then let him. Live with your mistake, don’t make it worse.
I agree with almost all of this except that trading a player like Broberg isn’t an absolute hard no for me but it should only be done in very limited circumstances.
Hard no to trading Broberg for any sort of rental (any higher end rental is really unaffordable on a re-sign so a true rental).
With that said, Broberg as the main piece in a deal for a player like Chychrun isn’t out of the question. A player that helps significantly right now and for the future and is signed (for good value) for three more seasons.
Of course, that deal isn’t available and two additional “Borberg type assets” are required and that is a hard no – in particular given the upgrade is at a position that the organization doesn’t need an upgrade on over the next number of years.
I absolutely value the likes of Holloway, Broberg, Bourgault, etc. that will almost assuredly play big to really big roles on their ELCs for massive value (well, the first two, Bourgault is a bit too raw to know for sure).
Those value contracts are huge. I can move one if it provides real upgrade value but not multiple.
An Iginla style trade could work.
So, Broberg and a 3rd for Chychrun is doable (from a singular perspective)
Buuut, the 2022-23 salary remains an issue.
So, maybe Broberg, Barrie, Lavoie, and a 2nd for Chychrun works.
Buuut, now there is a need to shore up the RD depth.
Oh, and Bouchard, with PP time now looks to be the next $8 million+ contract for this team.
The wheels on the bus go ’round and ’round, wheeeeeee!
Wait, what? You think it’ll COST the Oilers a prospect + pick to move Barrie?? You realize that he’s consistently a top-10 offensive producer on a good contract, right?
Honestly, if to Arizona, yes. Moving Barrie is the easiest way this works.
With luck, there is a chance that AZ would view Barrie as an easily movable piece and would be happy to move him at the deadline.
If true then it could be as low as Broberg, Barrie, and a 3rd.
As much as I should not underestimate the value of Barrie, the salary IS an issue and every GM out there knows it so the offers will reflect that. Conversely, AZ can hold onto Barrie easier than we can so they can get more for him in trade as they don’t have that Cap pressure on them (which will allow them to profit on the difference).
That would be the hope anyways.
I would push back a bit on you here, OP. We’ve seen some pretty good D come through and Broberg is putting up AHL numbers like Chabot and Karlsson did in Ottawa’s system.
Sure, no one is untouchable, but it’s a Holland pick and the guy is tracking better than Bouchard at the same age.
Chychrun, to me, comes with a lot of cost and I think there are aspects of his game — by the numbers — that worry me a touch. All that glitters is not gold.
https://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/player-age/20-year-old-ahl-defensemen.html
Broberg doesn’t show up on this list because he hasn’t played 20 games yet, but his .733 P/GP would be 10th on this list. It’s not a guarantee, but that’s phenomenal company.
The issue for me with Chychrun is he is 23 with 2 major knee surgeries. Young Jake is busted. We did Ryan Whitney already.
One of the core rules of fashion – if you did it once don’t do it again!
I have difficulty believing Puljujarvi will come in at 5 to 5.5. He’s a demonstrably elite player at this point. He is going to get 7+ easy.
I agree RE: Broberg. Don’t trade the guy because the upside is fantastic and you just don’t know. He could be a legit first pairing guy, certainly looks to be ahead of where Bouchard was at the same age. Hold!
Chychrun had a shooting percentage heater last season at 10%. His career average is 6.7. He is not even the best LHD on Arizona, Ghost is. He has been getting significant powerplay time, as evidenced by his boxcars over the past two years, a role he would not play here. He’s been getting tuned at EV this season. I’m not saying he’s Barrie, but do you really want both of those guys on the same team?
I think that’s fantastic Arizona thinks they can get two prime time prospects and a first rounder for him. Maybe he is that player, the cap hit is good, but the team that needs to make this type of deal is rich in forward prospects and poor on the blueline.
Petry. Nurse. Bear. Bouchard. Just take your medicine and wait, PB will be worth it.
You never know, in particular with Lehto still involved, but I think $7MM per is very high and do think this should come in closer to $5M.
Look at Drake Batherson’s deal – is that not a great comp?
I love Jesse, most of us do, he’s fantastic in all three zones but, his numbers are very good, not “great” and he’s played 340 of 400 minutes at 5 on 5 with McDavid (200 plus with Nurse, then Bouchard, Hyman, Leon).
He also has 50 minutes of PP time with the 1st unit (48 actually) – no a ton but a material amount and, thinking about it, its often the 2nd half of the PP where PK1 is likely off the ice…..
He contributes, yes, he’s not just eating their crumbs, but he is getting the most cherry minutes possible.
Batherson is hilarious. The Sens pull another Mark Stone out of the 4rth round.
Just ridiculous.
4rth round pick and 28 points in 23 games season.
I’ve been saying for years that we should poach Ottawa’s scouts.
You can poach them, and you can grill them–heck, you can even roast them–but you should never batter them.
Sauteing them is right out.
Listening to Ken Holland on Oilers Now and just a few points:
1) Niemelainen has a broken hand – he’ll be a while
2) Bob mentioned that the writing is on the wall for Skinner and he’ll be sent down when Smith is activated – Holland didn’t say yes but he definitely did not challenge the position at all so I think that will be the case.
3) As of now, there it sounds like any player in Covid-protocol is there for at least 10 days even if they get three negative tests (each 24 hours apart) prior to the expiry of the 10-day period.
Re: #3
Science™
Just when you think the world can’t get any more blindingly stupid, the world says “hold my beer” and tops itself yet again.
Interesting that Oilers revenue for home game is 2.3 mil dollars tied with Montreal for second in Canada per Friedman.
also it is the 7th most valuable franchise in the league with the fastest growth rate at 1 year and 5 years.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2021/12/08/nhl-team-values-2021-22-new-york-rangers-become-hockeys-first-2-billion-team/?sh=2ac4b78b360c
so whoever was saying that the Oil should trade one of the big 2 for depth, go fish
If Katz had hired competent managers, imagine how high they could go.
There are lots of Oilers fans everywhere. I saw them in New York, I see them now in Toronto. Definitely not a regional team any more.
Left D for Dec 27th vs. Calgary
Per Holland on 630 ched
Nurse- out Covid
Keith- out Covid
Lagesson – out Covid
Russell – IR
Niemelainen – IR
In:
Koekoek
Broberg – call up
Samorukov – call up
Of note: Hyman will be ready to play.
Looking forward to seeing Samorukov, even with the understanding that he isn’t fully healed yet.
…
woof. Just, woof.
If there ever was a guaranteed loss night, this would be it.
sucks that it will be against the god damn FLames (I’m Assuming there will be no flames under Covid protocol by then)
why have you forsaken us hockey gods!?
Koekkoek-Ceci
Samorukov-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Lots of lots there.
I think only Bouchard is good enough to carry Koekkoek.
Koekkoek Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
Samorukov Barrie
Or if one were to go down to the top 4, late in the game.
Samorukov Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
I love Bouchard but he makes way more mistakes than Ceci.
Finally we get the Kookoo-Ceci pair!
Dan Vladar tested positive yesterday so the Flames will have to call up a back up rom Stockton.
https://calgarysun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/one-more-sidelined-as-flames-vladar-enters-nhls-covid-19-protocol
From that article:
Edmonton is dealing with an outbreak of their own as Darnell Nurse, William Lagesson, Duncan Keith, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Devin Shore, Ryan McLeod, Jesse Puljujarvi and head coach Dave Tippett are all currently in protocol.
Does anyone know when those forwards will exit protocol?
I don’t know all of the protocols, but if it’s 10 days and they’re symptom free I think Shore and McLeod could come off by the 27th. I believe Keith and RNH would be shortly after that.
Just to add… Russell is actually on LTIR, which I did not know till today.
Are they really going to make the Oilers play this game? Yikes.
Doubt it. Guessing the league will be down through new years
Well, that’s one way to get those lazy bastards in Bako some playing time.
Speaking of time, TOI totals after that game will be a real tell.
Very excited to see Samorukov play. That dynamite KHL season last year tells me he’s probably close to ready. Don’t trade him! Stop trading the young D!
I hope he channels his inner Dr. Hook McKrakken against Tkachuk.
As of now, they don’t have the cap space to bring up Broberg and Samorukov.
There is a good chance this game gets postponed but I’m sure we won’t know until the 26th/27th.
@GMillerTSN
·
4h
As of now, with a few cuts to come, NHL prospects by team at the #WorldJuniors:
ANA-4
ARI-1
BOS-1
BUF-4
CGY-1
CAR-10
CHI-4
COL-1
CBJ-4
DAL-4
DET-8
EDM-2
FLA-6
LAK-6
MIN-6
MTL-3
NSH-4
NJD-4
NYI-0
NYR-5
OTT-5
PHI-3
PIT-3
SJS-1
SEA-2
STL-3
TBL-0
TOR-3
VAN-1
VGK-4
WSH-1
WPG-4
That damned Tulsky.
This past draft, not only did they trade down with aplomb for more picks, they even traded a 2021 pick for a 2022 pick. It just seems like such an obviously good strategy, and I can’t believe other teams haven’t caught on.
Yeah…being an elite NHL team and having that many top prospects on the way indicates someone knows what he’s doing.
It’ll pay off for years, too.
Eric Tulsky
@EricTulsky
·
Dec 15
7th round picks at the WJC:
4: Carolina (Guslistov, Nystrom, Pashin, and Seeley)
3: None
2: None
1: 6 teams (BUF, CBJ, DAL, FLA, PIT, WSH)
0: 25 teams
What an amazing testament to the work done by our scouting group, development staff, and especially the players themselves!
More on the Canes WJC prospects.
https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/ten-canes-prospects-selected-for-world-juniors/c-329026052
Looks like they went heavy on small players
Yup
Some might even make the NHL
But if you play the odds enough might
Yeah the Oilers should steer clear of dealing with them.
Hearing Tulsky is in the running for the GM job in Vancouver.
Rutherford was the one who hired him in Carolina.
He would be a great hire. Best Vancouver acquisition since the Twins!
COL-1
VAN-1
TBL-0
Hmm…
TBL and COL don’t surprise me considering where they are in the win cycle.
In Vancouver, Jim Benning just keeps on giving.
Poor Canucks.
This was posted in yesterday’s comments. Spittin Chicklets interview with Jim Playfair:
https://www.barstoolsports.com/podcast/3399116/spittin-chiclets-breaks-huge-story-and-big-js-suddenly-forget-how-to-cite
Fast forward your cassette player to the 1:58 mark. Skip to 2:07.40 though if you don’t want to spend 10 minutes on the stick-breaking incident.
I did not uncover this so don’t deserve any kudos for it, but it was a great interview with real insight into the coaching staff, organizational dynamics, player personalities, and tactics used. I thought I should re-post for those who missed it. Bonus Gretzky story too.
Just checked… BornInAGretzkyJersey deserves the love for finding us this must-see TV.
Although I already commented on this yesterday, I want to mention that Playfair discussed a fair bit of what Tippett uses in terms of analytics. Hopefully this information is shared to those who drawn up their own conclusion’s of what Tippett’s coaching style and use of analytics is, even though they have little-to-no knowledge of what goes on in the org beyond what they see on the ice and hear from generically answered pressers and post-game interviews.
I should have thrown that in there too. Yes, he does. Thanks for the addendum.
Here is a great thread summarizing many of Playfair’s comments:
https://twitter.com/SuhkMadiq/status/1473710189429899279
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/top-5-oilers-prospects-refining-defence-will-unlock-brobergs-skills/
Interesting takeaway from Spec that Samorukov is trade bait. Niemelainen is ahead of him on the depth chart. I haven’t watched either guy in the minors — maybe OP could chime in — but for me Samorukov seems to be the better prospect based on his body of work.
You’d like to have a 3 LHD who can step in on the second pair, which Samorukov has the resume for. Not sure about Niemelainen.
One thing to keep in mind is that Samorukov has more value to other teams than Niemalainen, as he’s younger and higher profile. If you were to trade the big Finn today you wouldn’t get much for him.
Definitely more value.
You have to build a team with some redundancy, though. An injury to Nurse/Broberg/Keith and you end up in a tough spot. Samorukov seems to have more upside.
I’d argue if Sam shows that potential in the NHL, his trade value would be even higher.
Also, disappointed that he didn’t grade Savoie as one of the Oilers top-5 prospects. That kid doesn’t get near enough respect for what he’s doing in the toughest conference in the NCAA. He’s tracking ahead of Cole Caufield, you’d think that would catch the MSM’s attention, but no.
Who would you drop for him? All five names he listed deserve to be there, IMO.
Niemelainen and Samorukov are much closer to the NHL, but neither of them has nearly the ceiling Carter Savoie does. His current NHLe is 27-22-49, which is fantastic for a 19 year old in a very good league (Dobber puts NCHC almost at par with the AHL).
FWIW Caufield’s same-age NHLe was 26-19-45.
I listed to that Spec/Stauff spot on Oilers Now and I can only value the opinions thereon so much when, all of a sudden, Niemelainen is a top 5 prospect in the org.
I like Niemelainen, and have been talking about his for almost a year, since he started to show very well in Bakersfield in February of this year. At the same time, his ceiling is clearly lower than Samorukov’s and is that of a 3rd pairing guy.
Samorukov is being handled carefully because he missed half a season with a shoulder injury and then broke his jaw heading in to this season. He was still wearing a full face shield at the last Condors’ game.
Lets not forget that he was the talk of camp prior to the jaw injury and, also, that Holland has stated that he’s previously received lots of interest in Samorukov but was not willing to trade him away.
He’s, of course, no untradeable, and could be a solid piece in a deadline deal, but I’m sure Holland has a value on him and I don’t think he’s as good as “traded” like Spec thinks.
If they ask for Broberg and Edmonton says no they’ll check down to Samorukov.
If there is a big splash deadline deal he may well be part of the price paid.
Top ‘x’ lists are based on specific things. I always mention that my list rewards offensive potential and has no regard to being close to NHL-ready. I expect Mr. Spector’s list may have put heavy value on that area. Could be wrong but that’s my guess.
This response is for Armchair GM too..
Any list describing a team’s top prospects is going to take into account proximity to the NHL and that characteristic might even have greater weight than “ceiling”.
I’m no fan of Spec, he’s a vile human being IMO, but he explicitly states that he is projecting Dima as a second pairing Dman and Nemo at 3rd pairing AND he has Nemo higher than Dima.
That should tell us plainly that proximity is the bigger consideration in his ranking.
And that should tell everyone why Savoie isn’t on the list… he might not play in the NHL, he might play 80 games, he might play 800. No one knows at this point.
There is more uncertainty to Dima’s future than Nemo’s, so Dima gets nicked. I think he’s being fair and even-handed.
I also think it’s the right way to go. Otherwise you end up with Bourgault or Savoie or someone at the top of the list and then they never play an NHL game. That’s just a hypothetical, but there are plenty of real world examples of it happening.
Samorukov has top 4 all around D potential. Niemelainen tops out as a 3rd pairing PK banger (who is a good skater). I like him as a #7 on a contending team. Lagesson is similar, tops out as a 3rd pairing PK guy, who would be a #7 on a contender.
Hitting is overrated.
Hitting is over-rated but aggressively defending the blueline is not and there are certain d-men, that can cause teams to change their zone entry strategy and players to, well, be more aware as they come through the neutral zone.
Niemelainen has a LONG ways to go to be one of those players but he was already creating a bit of a reputation. Of course, teams will be able to take advantage of a player that is overly-aggresive and doesn’t pick his spots well – that’s part of the development curve.
Of course, this is also a plus part of Samorukov’s games who, as mentioned, has a higher ceiling with a broad range of skills.
https://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com/2021/10/202122-team-injury-breakdowns.html?m=1
Calgary has had ridiculous injury luck this year leading the league by a large number with no significant injuries
Woodcroft and Manson are gems. Oilers drafting has been a lot better but so much of good drafting is development and vice versa.
Broberg isn’t going anywhere. Not unless Holland is ready to fist fight Woodcroft.
Any deal we make for players needs to be for players with term. no UFAs next year. go get someone who will add the next 2 or 3 years, not just this year. But also taking into account cost of the acquisition. Would love Chychrun but it’ll cost a ton, especially since we will have to shed salary to make it work.
I have my wish list
Connor Brown from Ottawa = perfect compliment to either McDavid or Draisatl
and won’t cost the moon. Upgrades us quickly and for the next 2 years. So worth it.
Sens fans talk about Brown being worth the 1st + a prospect like Lavoie. Don’t be so sure he won’t cost the moon.
The Oilers aren’t winning the cup this year and no deadline deal is going to change that. I know McDavid and Leon are in their prime but the team is not quite ready. Holland has maybe enough assets for 1 upgrade so he has to pick a position which is weakest. Like 3rd line centre. If Holland keeps all his young prospects the Stanley cup window will extend into Connors early 30’s. No Stanley cup winner traded themselves from an average team to a winner at the deadline. The Oilers are a team that has won 1 out of 8 playoff games the past few seasons. During that 6 game losing streak I saw that same team again. They are a better team this year but I think they still have to grow organically a little longer. I also don’t buy the argument that the Oilers have to sell the farm to win before McDavid’s contract is up. If you hang on to these prospects and the team is really good in 4 years McDavid will resign. On the other hand if you trade all your prospects , don’t win and the team starts trending down again McDavid might want to go somewhere else. The other factor here is covid. This season has a lot of uncertainty and there is a risk of a shortened season and or playoff bubble. Hopefully Holland learned his lesson with the AA trade that did absolutely nothing to push the team forward.
Great post😊
Excellent comments!
100% agree.
Brilliant comment, one of the best I’ve seen all season. I watch the true contenders and the Oilers aren’t close if we are being honest. However without trading away the future prospects for rentals will pay off in a big way even in a couple of years. They have real talent coming on ELC’s soon.
Although not winner the Oilers did trade themselves into a game 7 Stanley cup finals at the trade deadline once
The OIlers had the regular season advanced stats to demonstrate that they were a contender except for not having a goaltender. So adding a goaltender and scoring and a depth D made sense.
The Oilers even strength stats are not indicative of a contender, and they probably aren’t going to get enough powerplays in the playoffs to keep them afloat.
I think a Tyler Toffoli type player so let’s say Tyler Toffoli gets this team a lot closer than you may think
Foggy Mcdavid JP
Hyman Drai Toffoli
Holloway Nuge Yamo
Mcleod Ryan Kassian
or whatever bottom 6 mix you like
Do you think Montreal would trade Toffoli for Barrie straight up?
resign means quit. I presume you meant re-sign.
Firstly, I am fully on board with NOT going balls out on trading futures for rentals. These futures (Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault, etc.) are important pieces to keep the contending window open – cheap value contracts where high skilled players greatly out-produce their cap hits.
I’m not saying one such piece cannot be used for some immediate help but this whole “all-in” concept which, seemingly, includes a disregard to the next 2-5 years, is not something I agree with.
With that said, to the post, I’m not sure why the Oilers can’t win the cup this year. Dallas was in the SCF two years ago. MTL was in the SCF last year.
Yes, the Oilers have won one out of 8 playoff games. Of course, the TBL got swept by the Jackets in the playoffs the year before they won the cup and went back to back.
Do I think the Oilers are going to win the cup this year? No, probably not, but its not out of the realm of possibility and I will certainly cheer for it.
Kind of a defeatist attitude no?
Nobody had Montreal going to the finals last year.
Anyone can win a Cup if they make the playoffs. Some teams are just built to beat other teams. Tampa was smart and invested wisely in a top 5 Goaltender year in and year out. Plus a simple add like Patty Maroon pushed Tampa over the top.
Regarding Klefbom’s shoulder and rumoured return in March, one of my guys at work had his shoulder done in early June, similar procedure as Klef had. He was doing physio on it the week after surgery. He came back to work 10 weeks later, but of course he isn’t a professional hockey player.
He reported immediate pain relief (had lots of trouble sleeping prior to surgery, but had no issues afterwards). He is getting the same surgery on his other shoulder in January. He is also much older, turns 64 next year.
So what I am saying, I think it is seemingly plausible that Klef could be back in March.
If the surgery did work 9-12 month recovery is very reasonable which March would be 12 months.
Now the Oilers are incredibly silent on injuries so we have absolutely no idea if His or Holloway’s arms fell off or if they are doing well
but Klef only has one year left on his contract and has missed a lot of time so I’m sure he’s itching to get back if he can
Just heard something interesting regarding the Flames who have had a team wide Covid outbreak.
Apparently, if any player has previously tested positive, they will be exempt from testing and border restrictions for 90 days.
Seems to me that would be a competitive advantage.
Your backside is not a source
This has been in place for many months for Canadians travelling back to Canada, not certain if the NHL has a different standard.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/residual-positive-covid-pandemic-flights-pcr-1.6035801
I can tell you first hand that when my wife and Son travel from USA back into Canada they show their POSITIVE TEST (Yes they both had covid in the summer). Border accepts a Neg PCR test OR proof of a Positive test. They accept the Positive for 180 days.
So, if an entire team has tested positive, it would seem they would be exempt for the remainder of the season.
Unless the rules change, yes, they would probably be exempt vis-a-vis the CAN/US government rules for cross-border travel but that is not the same thing as the NHL rules for cross-border travel which, to my knowledge, do NOT include this exemption.
This is nothing new, happens in all leagues. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t need to be tested until 4 or 5 days before the superbowl due to his previous pop.
Doesn’t matter anyways Flames are hot trash.
The only competitive advantage they’ve had is ridiculous injury luck
I sure hope this is one of those posts where LT is trolling us.
https://theathletic.com/3028029/2021/12/22/lowetide-if-the-oilers-add-a-big-deadline-asset-philip-broberg-will-be-the-ask/
Broberg for a Fleury rental?
You gotta be kidding me 🙂
Luckily Stan Bowman is no longer under the employ of the Chicago Blackhawks.
Yeah if the Oil weren’t going to trade Broberg and first rounders for Chychrun who is on a very team friendly contract I don’t see it for a rental
I don’t even see it if we had a contract extension ready for fleury
Holland has said that the first round pick is in play but he also intimated that, as per the past, not for a pure rental.
I can’t imagine that Broberg (or Holloway or Bourgault or the 1st rounder) would be in play for a pure rental.
Mardy is 10.2 P/60 this season – they can’t let that type of production walk, can they?
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Pretty sure he was joking.
Dammit, I missed his third joke ever. No one can hide in the tulips like OP.
Bah – 7th.
That’s his P/60 in the NHL this season.
I was being funny – well, trying to… apparently failing.
I do think they’ll qualify him – no reason not to. He’s a legit asset, for the AHL if nothing else, and, at least heading in to the off-season, there will be tons of space on the 50.
If Marody remains an AHL player for the rest of the year, I would presume he not want to sign his QO but wouldn’t really have any options – he’d be hoping for a trade or to be claimed on waivers in September/October.
His only other option would be to go to Europe for the year until he’s an NHL UFA.
Similar with Lagesson.
Dino Kambeitz is the new Luke Esposito!