It’s been 20 years since I started looking at prospects using numbers and ideas first presented by the great baseball writer Bill James, then adapted by brilliant minds like Gabriel Desjardins. It’s been a fun run, and we’ve asked a lot of interesting questions. Answers? Well, that’s a moving target.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
LOOKING BACK, PART ONE
In the beginning I was looking for a magic number, like “if a player scores x points per game in the AHL, he’s guaranteed an NHL job.” Well, the guaranteed guys don’t play in the AHL, the minor leagues are for those men who need to shave a little problem or tweak a little imperfection. The season this blog went chasing answers using equivalencies and the lessons of history was 2002-03 and the Hamilton Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs were a supergroup (Pisani, Stills, Nash and Young) that combined the Montreal Canadiens and Edmonton Oilers’ prospects. Four men (Pisani, Stoll, Bergeron and Semenov) had NHL careers, but Jani Rita missed the mark. He had a good shot, reasonable speed, I marked him as a future NHL player. Looking back, I don’t think he fit with the coach’s style (Craig MacTavish) and Fernando Pisani ate his lunch. Things happen.
The 2003-04 Toronto Roadrunners
Pisani was in the NHL in 2003-04, plus Stoll, Bergeron and Semenov. They joined a young group that included Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky and Raffi Torres that were coming up. I didn’t get the same feeling for Salmelainen as Rita, possibly because Hemsky was already there.
The player who intrigued me from this season was Doug Lynch. He was big, strong, had some ability on offense and defense. JJ Hunter was an interesting player, he had a famous relative (Jungle Jim Hunter) and the young hockey player worked very hard to make it. In the end, music called him and he had success.
2005-06 Hamilton Bulldogs
It was Hamilton, but also the Milwaukee Admirals and Iowa Stars. This was the shared team and I do believe there was impact on these players. Winchester was part of the Bulldogs and man they were good, Montreal’s entire prospect list and the Oilers best. Winchester would land in the NHL and score a big goal in the spring during the Stanley run.
Marc Pouliot played very well for Hamilton, he was a little shy offensively at even strength but he got plenty of power-play work and thrived. Same for J-F Jacques, who had a fantastic 20-year old season, but for me Pouliot was a player who would have a career. Kyle Brodziak, in trail position and loaned to the Iowa Stars, would eventually pass him.
The best pro from this group was Matt Greene, a big, tough and strong defender who enjoyed a strong career. Defensemen who have lots of value tied up in the defensive side of the game are tough to monitor using numbers.
2020-21 Bakersfield Condors
This season included only the Pacific Division, so, just as the Winchester, Pouliot and Jacques numbers from 15 years ago pumped up the jam, perhaps these McLeod, Benson and Marody totals did the same. Lots of young talents on this list, but no one was separating in 2020-21.
2021-22 Bakersfield Condors
The big name of course is Broberg, I wrote about him this week and all of his arrows are pointed in a strong, strong direction. Oscar Klefbom’s NHLE in the AHL at the same age was 8.3 per 82 games. I think he’s going to be good, of course his rookie season still has some way to go.
McCleod’s number are lower but remain solid, that’s about Stoll-level back in the day. Lavoie needs to recover and has time, Niemelainen and Samorukov are from the family of players who have half (or so) of their value tied up in suppression futures.
MACT VERSUS TIPPETT
One of the things I hope we can talk about is Dave Tippett’s usage of young players versus Craig MacTavish. Not necessarily style of player preferred, or even type of player who failed, but about options.
When Fernando Pisani found his way, he had to win a job versus Rita but also Daniel Cleary. There was plenty of competition.
MacT brought Mike Comrie, Shawn Horcoff, Jason Chimera, Ales Hemsky, Fernando Pisani and four games of Jarret Stoll to the NHL in his first three coaching seasons.
Tippett brought Ryan McLeod, Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody.
Edmonton needs forwards, and Tippett needs more competition. The defense is overrun with candidates but Ken Holland needs to find forwards. Not just draft them, but sign college and CHL kids, Europeans and yes, even trade excess on defense for some forwards.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
This will be the final show before Christmas, it’ll be fun and informative. Chris Johnston, TSN insider, will chat to us about the NHL players not going to the Olympics, about canceled games and the All-Star break. We’ll be joined by Steve Lansky, as he readies himself for Christmas and the World Juniors. Matt Iwanyk will discuss the World Juniors and we’ll preview Canada-Russia at five pm today. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Get your Bison King Tees:
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-puljujarvi-eocf-team-up-on-bison-king-shirt-fundraiser/c-329196324
A lot more respect for Bison King for donating proceeds from this than for someone like Johnny Hockey trademarking their name (though maybe he donates lots too?).
I don’t think Johnny does anything with his TM. I think he just did that to protect himself and to avoid cheap Johnny Hockey bobbleheads and nonsense like that from popping up.
OK, thanks.
In that case I’ll withdraw that particular complaint against Johnny Gaudreau 🙂
Canada beats Russia 6-4. The Bourg was held off the scoresheet.
From what I saw (all of the 1st + the back half of the 3rd), he got no time on special teams and wasn’t very noticeable at 5v5. Low-event, to be sure.
Invisible.
If this is not baiting, I do not know what is. Shameful. Should be purged from this site for such BS. Obvious not even trying to add value. What a loser.
He’s a 70 yo stuck in Grade 8 recess, who lives off causing misery for others. We’re now the most immature community in Oiler hockey and that’s not exactly a low bar. It’s become pointless to even read here at night unless there’s a game on. Every conversation is rabbit-holed.
I feel embarrassed for the people involved in this never-ending public display of childishness, but it’s not my blog.
I just hope Andrew throws lot of money LT’s direction to make up for all the money he costs him.
To be fair, there wasn’t much 5v5 in the first period and (at least) the start of the second. Steady stream of players going to the box and feeling shame.
Also, being a pre-competition game, Canada and Russia agreed to roll pretty much everyone on their rosters, so unless you were on PP/PK, you got very little ice time.
Germany falls to Slovakia 4-0.
Munzenberger took penalties for roughing and tripping. The Slovaks scored two of their three PP goals following those infractions.
Would those be counted as Shizabergers then?
Listening to Holland on the Gregor Show:
Going to practice on the 26th (will do a rapid test to get in the building and a PCR test) – won’t travel to Calgary until the 27th in order to get the PCR results
For us, taxi squads don’t do anything as right now there is no quarantine for guys com up from Bakersfield. Would rather have the guys playing in the AHL than sitting on a taxi squad.
Heard rumblings that a team could bring up players under a certain amount without cap implications if the roster is hit too hard.
Mike was getting close but then we got shut down. Not exactly sure where we’re at. Probably not ready for the 27th or 29th with the shut down and he hasn’t played in so long. Hoping for some point on the road trip.
K. Russell not eligible to come off LTIR until Jan 7 – 4 games until then,
Niemelainen has a broken bone in hand. Not allowed to handle the puck until the 28th and likely a week after that until he’s potentially ready.
Broberg and Sammy are the two obvious re-calls but, if Smith can play earlier then there are cap issues – hoping for some new rules handling the cap with Covid.
All the cap tied up in Covid is currently effecting the ability to ice a team.
Know the NHL/NHLPA are talking about some altering of the “rules” – don’t anticipate there will be much talk once Christmas eve hits and is hoping for some guidance tonight or early tomorrow.
As of now, both Broberg and Sammy will be called up for practice on the 26th.
Gregor brought up WG’s article on the bottom six and asked about improving the goal share among the bottom six. Holland said, the bottom six number is likely going to be different given the numbers that Connor and Leon put up. We’ve tried a number of players over the years. Got unlucky losing Archie. Had hoped that Holloway could push for a spot or start in the AHL and come up. Got some secondary scoring early and then dried up but has picked up again. Talked about the analytical shooting percentage of the bottom six which is super low. Feels some guys can pitch in more than they have.
Asked of Holland sees Holloway as a C or a W – Holland started by lowering expectations, he’s 20, hasn’t played a pro game and its going to be close to a year since he played. Realistically, he’ll need the rest of the season in the AHL and we’ll see him in September. Of course, anything can happen but that’s the realistic expectation at this point.
The bottom six answer has to be in the locker room for the most part. Can maybe go outside and add one-guy but can’t go and change the entire makeup.
The narrative can be secondary scoring but we’ve got to get better on the goals against side.
Of note, in Nugent-Bowman’s article today, Holland said a similar thing regarding Holloway – likley will need the entire season in the AHL.
He’s stickhandling but not shooting yet – likely will practice with the Condors in January but games are not likely until Feb.
https://theathletic.com/3032724/2021/12/23/jesse-puljujarvis-next-contract-expectations-for-dylan-holloway-trading-for-evander-kane-oilers-mailbag/
A taxi squad would be irregularly necessary. When a team has a breakout, one would want to call up a few extra players to have them easily available. But they would mostly be on the farm.
This Omicron variant is so contagious that there’s no need for Taxi squads. Either you let asymptomatic players play or you’ll end up shutting down the team for 2 weeks
This way of dealing with it is the route that was chosen, so if the virus is mutating down, as per normal with many viruses, why fight it.
“if the virus is mutating down, as per normal with many viruses”
The problem is that there’s still an “if”. Also, it depends on what “down” really means. Also, viruses don’t just naturally mutate toward mild, that’s propaganda. Just because we don’t remember having to fully eradicate small pox doesn’t mean it didn’t exist.
I think the NHL’s decisions these days is likely driven by a desire to avoid being a mechanism of spread to people outside the league since there’s a good chance our hospital system will be pushed to breaking. Is it just an entertainment company protecting it’s image? Maybe. But perhaps it’s a question of who really deserves to bend the rules since we all can’t. Maybe we could do an electronic referendum.
Covid is many things, but smallpox it is not. Smallpox killed about 30% of the people it infected, was much more dangerous for babies and left many survivors with lifelong disabilities. Although you are correct that not all viruses mutate down, many do, and from what we’ve seen in South Africa, Britain and other countries, the new variant does appear to be more infectious and less dangerous.
I’m encouraged too, not enough track yet but the numbers seem to be holding. Fingers crossed.
Holland’s response to questions about the bottom six really highlights how little he understands analytics/the use of analytics.
How so?
“Got some secondary scoring early and then dried up but has picked up again. Talked about the analytical shooting percentage of the bottom six which is super low. Feels some guys can pitch in more than they have.”
Get good players…keep good players.
That isn’t at all an answer to my question.
Sure it is.
His response belies how his choices for bottom 6 roles are well below average.
That he doesn’t understand that speaks volumes.
No.
1) you are speaking for another poster.
2) you have said nothing at all about analytics.
Analytics would help identify players who are able to produce in the bottom 6.
Instead you end up with players like Ryan, Turris, Shore and Perlini.
And, of course, this is not the first time Holland has acquired poor solutions.
That he is doubling down on those choices by suggesting he had some secondary scoring (he didn’t) and then it dried up is a huge tell.
And the money quote:
“Feels some guys can pitch in more than they have.”
Sure, Ken, sure.
No, its clear: Ken Holland doesn’t understand, Harpers Hair understands.
This is correct.
Foegele 11P (a clear win but a dear cost)
__________________________________
EDM
McLeod 3
Sceviour 3
Ryan 2
Turris 2
Shore 2
Perlini 2
VGK
Roy 15
Kolesar 10
Janmark 9
Carrier 8
Howden 8
The results speak for themselves.
The question was: How does Holland’s response to questions about the bottom six really highlight how little he understands analytics/the use of analytics.?
You highlighting that the Oilers bottom 6 has been poor does not answer the question.
Further, Holland’s two main bottom 6 adds this past summer (Foegele and Ryan) would have been excellent analytics-based choices, whether or not analytics was used in those choices, and whether or not they’ve worked out through the first third of the season.
RESULTS. MATTER
I answer:
Holland’s Oilers instantly became a 100 point, top third team, after being a 78 point, bottom third team before his arrival.
You answer:
PLAYOFFS
And we wait.
I’m not sure if you’ve taken a close look at the current standings but the Oilers are clinging to the final wild card spot in the WC.
When the Avalanche return to play in a more healthy fashion, they will use some of their 3-4 games in hand to take a top three (at least) spot in the Central.
That will drop either Nashville or St. Louis down to a WC spot and will bump the Oilers out of the playoffs.
Being 3 points ahead of the rebuilding LAK at this point in the season is far from chest thumping territory considering the Oilers record has been fuelled by an unworldly PP that is, predictably, regressing to the mean.
BTW, Dom’s model now has the Oilers finishing 3rd in the Pacific with 99 points but that has been dropping consistently and there’s a pretty good chance the Ducks are for real.
That is NOT a top third team.
If results matter, then why hasn’t Joe Sakic been fired years ago and why haven’t the Kings moved on for Turcotte and Madden as busts?
Ryan was never an excellent analytics based choice.
All it would take to wave the red flags would be a cursory look at the aging curves of NHL players.
Ryan turns 35 later this month and Holland signed him to a two year deal..a terrible unforced error.
In the meantime, the Leafs signed 25 year old David Kampf to a $1.5 million cap hit.
Not only is he a decade younger, he is outperforming Ryan by a wide margin.
Not an analytics based choice?
Based on what? The fact that he had the best public analytics on the flames forwards last year including the best possession rates and the best goal share percentage (and the best relative goal share percentage).
That’s just a made up statement based on nothing.
Also, his cap hit is all but fully buryable in the AHL, I think it would hit for $50K – the term of his deal is a non-issue
HE. IS. 35. YEARS. OLD.
With a history of great analytics including the season before he was signed.
I really detest the Kampf thing. His cap hit is higher than Ryan’s and he has a long track record of doing nothing. It’s just so weak. Sure, Ryan is signed for two years but his cap is lower. It’s not like he’s signed for seven years.
I agree about Ryan.
Analytics is best used to find undervalued assets in terms of ability and contract. Trading a cost-controlled defenceman with good underlying numbers for a middle-six forward with good underlying numbers can hardly be described as an analytically informed/defensible transaction. It was/is suspect at best.
The context matters. Finding a bottom six forward with good underlying numbers and trading a more valuable asset for that player is not an “analytics-based” choice.
How is Bear cost-controlled?
He’s a free agent with arb rights this coming season.
If anything Foegele is cost-controlled
He was an RFA with no arb rights when traded.
No he wasn’t – he had one year left on his 2 year deal.
Apologies. I was going off memory.
Either way, I would consider a player on a 1-year deal who is still RFA (even with arb rights) cost controlled. Especially, Bear. He does not put up big counting numbers that would inflate his salary.
You might disagree. Even if I am wrong about Bear being cost-controlled, the primary point of my argument still stands. So…
Why do you always take on the white knight role for OEG and Holland?
Holland put together a garbage bottom six. There’s no debate.
Other teams with competent management and analytics are able to do better even on the cheap.
Where’s your evidence that Holland has a clue how to find depth players?
I give my opinions on what I think to be correct.
Holland has done a lot of good things for the team, while also failing so far to ‘fix’ the bottom 6 or get the team out of the first round.
I believed Foegele and Ryan were both good bets to help the bottom 6 back in July and I still believe it today.
You weren’t alone then, and you’re not alone now. I’ve been alarmed by Ryan’s season, but that doesn’t mean I was against it over the summer. I still hold out hope but have been known to see things in a positive light. Foegele is on a run here, I liked him before he came to Edmonton.
At the time, and if I’m being honest, even now, I believed Ryan would be a decent 3C or an above average 4C. Holland likes to make sure his rookies beat out decent competition. If Ryan McLeod can’t best out Ryan, an NHL.veteran, for the 3C spot it likely means he isn’t ready, or never will be.
FWIW, I love your posts, jp. One of the better posters on the site.
Exactly.
The suggestion that having Leon and Connor excuses/necessitates that the bottom six will have poor goal shares. He mentions missing Josh Archibald who was 19-25 last season at 5v5 and 19-36 5v5 two seasons ago at 5v5. He mentions shooting percentage as a mitigating factor for lack of secondary scoring (it is not really this season). It was incoherent.
Thanks for the answer.
Fair enough about the Leon/Connor answer.
Archibald, I get what you’re saying. I don’t know that he can’t be a break even player though. His 19-20 is the only really ugly one (and he had 1.5 solid years before joining the Oilers). And even his 43% from last season is an improvement on most of the guys this season (faint praise, but I think he’d help the team despite his previous numbers).
Shooting% is still an issue, along with on ice SV%. It’s not exactly what he said, but the Oilers bottom 6 PDO is easily the worst since before Chiarelli was hired.
This is gold…. For those who haven’t seen this, Kane vs Fleury yesterday.
https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/marc-andre-fleury-throws-stick-at-patrick-kane-in-shootout-drill
Love seeing that kind of oneupmanship going on. It keeps guys laughing and also raises the bar.
Unfortunately, I feel slightly dumber for having read that “article.” Wow.
My apologies, I found the video on Instagram and was unable to share it, so I searched for an alternate way and found this one. I should put up a disclaimer😬😬
LOL not at jab at you in the slightest.
Thanks for sharing the vid.
What worries me about trading one of the three top leftorium is that we don’t know for sure who is what yet
Is Broberg a scoring two way or taller faster Barrie?
Does Niems have enough puck skills or is Samo going to pass him once he gets going? Or is Samo going to be injury prone?
I suppose if two emerge they can find a 3LD, although Kenny hasn’t exactly been knocking it out if the park that way
I suppose if Manson has a call on it, and the return is well, well worth it, ok
Broberg, like Klefbom, was the best defensive defensemen in his Swedish age group. When they had a defensive assignment, Broberg was sent out there rather than Bjornfoot or Soderstrom. Even in the draft + 1 World Juniors, which was filled with first and 2nd rounders, Broberg was paired with a draft + 2 mid round pick on the 3rd pair, and they were the 2nd PK pair, behind two first round draft + 2’s.
Broberg was the captain of the draft + 2 world junior team, and was on the first pairing, but was hampered by two serioius injuries during the tournament.
No, he wasn’t. Brodin was. But they typically played as a pairing.
When Brodin and Klefbom played together, it was Klef who took on the role of defensive conscience, no?
In his first World Jrs. Klef was certainly used in a defensive role, much like Broberg, but he came to the draft as someone who could rush the puck and had a good point shot. Second best skater in the draft (also very similar to Broberg, to extend Godot’s analogy). He was nicked for hockey sense and having raw defensive skills. Raw and toolsy. Brodin was the “smart one.” Better all-round and better vision, better passer. Brodin was the more advanced player and the regular on Farjestads, so when they played together, you could be right–the junior roster member deferred to the senior–but then I wouldn’t get to jerk Godot’s chain. 😉
Interesting historical context, thank you.
I was going off the draft day verbal that (much like JP as a forward) in a few years he could be viewed as the best all around defenseman from that draft class.
Yet Klefbom won the best defensemen award at the World Junior Championship in the only one that Sweden ever won.
Holland is not going to start negotiating with Puljujarvi and KY until the off-season, as per DNB.
If he bridges Puljujarvi to UFA, that is silly. OP opined that JP would come in around 5, I still think that’s way too low. I would sign him long term to 7.0 million / year, but it could easily be more. Is Puljujarvi really a lesser player than guys like Tkachuk and Dubois? No.
At this moment in time Pujo is. If Holland starts the negotiations at the 7 number he should be immediately fired.
I’m not saying he starts at 7, but that it will take 7.
So he’s going to hold out for 40% more, ditch TC?
7 mil would be ridiculous
Over the past two seasons:
Matt Tkachuk: 84 GP, 28 G, 38 A
Jesse Puljujarvi: 83 GP, 25 G, 23 A
PL Dubois: 76 GP, 23 G, 23 A
Tkachuk’s current cap hit is 7, and he will be getting a significant raise this off-season when his bridge deal ends.
Dubois’ 5 million cap hit, on a 2 year bridge deal, expires this off-season. He is in line for a big time raise.
Based on these comps, I don’t see how Puljujarvi can come in at a number starting with a 5 on a long term deal. That seems impossible. I would avoid a bridge deal with JP, but maybe Holland is forced to go that route.
I still think he comes in around 7, with Tkachuk/Dubois coming in at 8 or 9.
What were Tkachuk’s point totals when he signed that deal?
Why would Pujo get 40% more than what PLD got (at about the same number of games played when PLD signed his deal)?
Which of those 3 gets to play with McDavid and Draisaitl? The Oilers can’t afford to pump&pay players. If Puljujarvi hits his current 70-point-pace next to McDavid, he should be paid like a 50-point player, not a 70-point player.
FYI M Tkachuk scored 80, 34-43-77 in the season before signing that $7M x 3 deal, that’s well beyond Puljujarvi’s numbers even without accounting for the McDavid effect.
Also keep in mind the pre and post COVID aspect to contracts. Estimated increase in cap are out the window with new waves limiting capacity and concessions.
TkaCooke gets paid for his physicality though, and that contract is just plain stupid in first place and not something anyone would want to or could replicate
if you pay Dubois 9 mil per you deserve that contract
Wasn’t there also a stay-in-Calgary premium attached?
Happy Festivus, fellow Lowetidians!
The pole is up!
It’s Go Time!
“The tradition of Festivus begins with the airing of grievances. I got a lot of problems with you people and now you’re gonna hear about it!” – Frank Costanza
Friedman suggesting on the Jeff Marek show that the league is considering taxi squads and cap exemptions coming out of the break.
He’s not a proven answer to the forward problem but any thoughts on Zach Senyshyn to increase competition, LT?
He of the famed “Terrible 3” Bruins draft picks (along with Zboril and Debrusk)? Coincidentally all 3 have asked for a trade at some point…
Big, fast RW, decent AHL stats, maybe needs a chance with another team? Will be a UFA at the end of the year so could put on back burner and wait, but maybe sparks the bottom 6?
Obviously a more proven top 6 option would be more appealing in terms of this year playoff run…
I won’t mention that the Oilers also had a shot at the Barzal/Connor/Chabot trio that followed those 3 in the draft, but were instead gifted the gem of Griffin Reinhart.
Merry Christmas Chia, wherever you are!!!!
Can you imagine what it’s like being a BOS fan knowing you could have had all three of those guys, or even Boeser? Might be the most epic draft fail I can think of.
I still can’t believe they passed on meat and potatoes Halkirk own Shane Doan.
A classic case of overthinking at the draft.
I wrote about him the other day at The Athletic. He’s an interesting option.
Thanks LT, I just went and read that. Great writeup! Even more interesting with news today that he asked for a trade. Low risk, high reward?
I think so, yes. He shoots a lot, and has a great shot. He has good speed, too. I’m not saying give up the moon for him but he’s a good bet.
The more I stare at it, the less I am in favour of trading one of the better D prospects (barring a great return of course).
If one of the LD can play on the right, that leaves us with just enough good prospects and longer contracts to fill out what looks like it could be a really good D core in another year or so. For example
Nurse – Bouchard
Keith/Broberg – Ceci
Niemelainen – Samourukov / Barrie
Lagesson / Koekkoek / Kemp
With Broberg apprenticing for the Keith spot and Barrie as trade bait. Young and mid career options for the extra D.
I try to wait for one more highly ranked D prospect in the system before I feel like it’s trading from excess. The trades from excess were Jones and Bear.
No way Holland is trading his prized pick Broberg. If it’s between Broberg and Bouchard it’ll be Evan so it’ll be neither.
LT, curious why you didn’t mention the other players Tippett successfully integrated from the farm? Skinner, Nemo, Bouchard, and more. Something seems missing when you count three years of player integration by MacT and a small handful of players from this year by Tippett.
I was looking at forwards. Did mention defense in the next sentence.
Ah. Makes sense now. Thanks.
This was what I was using to parse the comparison in question.
The difference is Holland brings in veteran PTOs for end of roster competition instead. He has much deeper pocket compare to Lowe.
Winning is a big damn deal these days, especially after the youth movement after Fall for Hall.
Wouldn’t Yamamoto be on the Tippett list then?
He was in the NHL before Tippett.
I posted this this morning on yesterday’s thread, but it’s relevant to this one so I’m posting it again:
https://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/player-age/20-year-old-ahl-defensemen.html
Broberg isn’t on the list because he hasn’t played 20 games yet, but his .733 P/GP would have him 10th all-time for 20-year-old defensemen.
Weird that out of the All-time Top 25, four members (if we include Broberg) are presently on the Oilers right now.
solid leftorium can be used to add up front for sure. Short of Broberg i hope everyone is on the table, and only Broberg if it’s a big get (but GMs love their draft picks so doubtful)
I’ll keep beating the drum for Connor brown from Ottawa. I feel like he is the perfect fit of position, style of play and acquisition cost.
An upgrade at LD would be nice, but a two way top 6 forward and a better goalie option makes more sense to me then LD.
*****WARNING SPAM*****
New Because Oilers:
Every NHL teams’ bottom 6 5v5 goal share since the 08/09 season.
Now you can fight about which GMs build better teams with more information.
My Christmas present to all of you.
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2021/12/all-nhl-teams-bottom-6-goal-share-since.html
*****END SPAM*****
Great read, as always.
Small quibble, you could have picked a more cheery topic for the Christmas season, like teams who were the most successful at winning the draft lottery or which coaches have the best hair (facial and/or head).
Also, I wonder what Tambo is up to these days?
Im guessing he spends 5 hours out of everyday picking up 3 items at the grocery store.
All generic
GREAT article.
Holland clearly has not fixed this issue …. and I dont see it turning around soon.
I wonder how the quality of a team’s defence/the deployment of defence effect goal share, especially for the bottom six.
Edit: Nvm. Just read your comments on this point.
I feel like this has basically been the mantra around here for an age, but why is it so difficult to achieve? Salary structure? Having the ghost of James Neal or Zack Kassian in your bottom six can’t be helping the team win games.
Your point about goalies and defense making outsized contributions to the bottom-six is also important. Is this due to overlap with the top-4 (creating a mismatch against other teams’ bottom-6), and hot goalies elevating team play?
Getting the puck back and getting it moving in the right direction is critical for any team succeed and that usually is mostly done by the Dmen.
Having the right structure in place to make sure the puck gets from dzone–>nzone–>ozone is up to the coach and having the right players in place to get all this done is up the GM.
Hot goalie never hurt too. 🙂
Amazing work Darcy….must have taken a while.
Thanks Andrew. I did most of it a few years ago and have been updating it since. Decided to share the results I found due to how many people (media and fans) say that EDM’s bottom 6 is as good as anyone’s.
Who’s been saying that?
Great work.
It is disappointing to see many other teams address their bottom six in creative ways, while our front office is content with…not even mediocrity. Something worse than that.
Thanks.
I think a big part of bottom 6 goal share is driven by:
1) having an Actual NHL top 4 Dcorps
2) having an Actual NHL 3C
EDM hasn’t had that in a long time.
The Keith – Ceci bet has been a bad one.
42% GF for Keith and 39% for Ceci. I think Ceci is better than that but I was never a fan of lighting the D chart on fire in the off-season. Larsson left and Holland panicked.
DNB threw some shade on the off-season work on the RHD in his mailbag. Good man.
Both Ceci and Keith’s numbers are going in the wrong direction.
At least Ceci has the excuse of babysitting rookies while Keith was out.
Using Puck IQ’s elite tool, Nurse and Bouchard are the most common defensemen against the best, and both are over 50 percent DFF%. Small sample but Nurse is at 170 minutes and is 6-4 goals and 58.6 percent.
Ceci and Keith are underwater and that’s a problem. As I mentioned in the Broberg article, if Edmonton wants a stronger top-four option the deadline is the opportunity. Edmonton has sent away much of its draft currency and have little cap room. So, it’s a young prospect. Based on the numbers, Broberg will be the ask. Doesn’t mean Holland will deal him but a player who can slide in and play top-four minutes, even as a rental, will be dear.
Who are those pairings playing with? (since dmen are at the mercy of forwards when it comes to DFF)
Using Duncan Keith as the example, here are his center numbers versus elites:
With McDavid: 30 mins, 55.1 DFF%, 1-1 goals
With Draisaitl: 54 mins, 32.6 DFF%, 2-3 goals
(there would be some overlap with 29/97)
With Ryan: 11 mins, 57.4 DFF%, 0-1 goals
With McLeod: 8 mins, 41.8 DFF%, 1-1 goals
==
The Nuge minutes are similar to Leon minutes. So, the suck has been the 29 line, but that doesn’t give Keith a reprieve (his contributions are in those numbers, too).
Agreed.
IIRC, Keith and Ceci were closer to 50 GF% earlier in the season. Maybe they can improve as the roster gets healthy?
Although their CF% and FF% has been poor all season so it was likely just a matter of time before the GF% started to tank.
The Oilers were 35-37 at one time, and that was when they were all healthy. Here, these are defensive GF-FA numbers at five on five November 17:
Nurse 14-13
Barrie 12-11
Bouchard 11-12
Keith 12-14
Ceci 12-14
Koekkoek 4-7
Russell 3-2
Injuries derailed this group, and maybe they don’t get it back again. However, Ceci specifically played better than I thought he would in the first 15 games of the season.
Great job Darcy!
Arguably our best bottom 6 player is Sceviour, who came to the team as a try-out. The Holland years have been awful for the bottom 6 dotted with AHL re-treads, former offensively challenged Red Wings and speedy, but offensively challenged Euros.
Dominik Kahun aside (who may have been seen more as a top 6 solution) , this is the area of the roster where you’d think McDavid & Draisaitl might have a positive impact in attracting players, but doesn’t appear to be the case.
I honestly expected Svechnikov to sign here, so odd with so much room on the 50 man list that he did not. Allan Quine, who was injured for most of last season, would have been a very good option for the 4th line this season as well, IMO.
Hope is not a strategy for success, yet once again, here we are. I am scratching my head at this considering how much experience Ken Holland has doing his job. I’d like to think I could do a lot better, but I never played the game or worked as a (paid) player agent, so that dream died a quick death many years ago.
I’d like to have faith in Mr Holland, but I don’t. Like I said hope is ultimately not going to give you the results that one, ahem, hopes they will. But fans be fanning….
Perhaps potential bottom 6 players (and their agents) look at how little TOI the Oilers bottom 6 gets and head in another direction.
This would be especially true for those players on the younger end of the spectrum who are still trying to build a resume.
Kassian and Chiasson, one who was half-way out the door as an NHL player and the other brought in on a PTO both cashed in on their opportunities as bottom 6 players. All 3 of the PTOs, 4 including Kris Versteeg who ran to Calgary and closer to home, who came to the Oilers during the McDavid years, won NHL jobs. Did I miss anyone who did or did not win a job (other than Burdasov, who had a very short camp)?
Logically speaking better players = greater opportunity/playing time = better chance of more money and Stanley…. It appears Edmonton is very low on players’ lists for reasons other than playing hockey. Is it the location? Is it the GM? Coach? Wives? Agents? Not enough cake to go around with soon-to-be) 3 players taking up 40% of the Cap? Or is it actually the water (I am a water treatment specialist, so I know that it is NOT H2O-related lol).
I wonder if Edmonton will be impacted negatively (Covid bubble) or positively in the future with so many top young prospects playing here at the WJC’s/Gretzky-Hlinka in recently years.
I wrote this few days ago on the Athletic for DNB’s Mailbag, it fits here, I think.
Thinking about the Oilers current lack of organizational forward depth, I think back to Ryan Kuffner (a substantial NCAA goal scorer) not being resigned and Matei Blumel & Kirill Maksimov (who appears to be out of pro hockey) being released. As well, Allan Quine, who would have been a good call up option this season was not resigned. I just wonder what the long-term strategy looks like, from Holland’s perspective, I honestly can’t see one….
There are 5 forwards who appear to be substantial forward prospects, so that is promising, but they have yet to play a single game of pro hockey. Lack of organizational depth is a massive concern to me.
I only count Cooper Marody (limited) and Raphael Lavoie (underwhelming results) as having any sort of NHL potential, but they have had disappointing seasons and at this point are not solutions. With so much room on the 50 man roster and limited cap space next season, what is the plan? Are they looking at signing the 3 drafted NCAA forwards for next season? Does he prefer Euro Free Agents? What about motivated NCAA UFA’s with chips on their shoulders like Ethen Frank & Drew Worrad (who are also linemates) – a less specific question would be, has Holland considered/attempted signing UFA linemates (Euro, AHL, NCAA, CHL) as a strategy?
What are your insights?
One initial thought: Blumel was’t release, he didn’t sign an ELC to start with and has become a UFA (and hasn’t signed with any other NHL org). I think Blumel likely signs with the Oilers when he is ready to sign in the NHL.
I don’t know what happened with Maksimov but it sees like there may have been a rift or something with the org and they agreed to let him head back home.
The likes of Kuffner and Quine aren’t real NHL prospects – Quine is in the Griffith category (and missed almost all of last year with injury). If these guys are in the NHL lineup, well, that’s not a good sign.
Lets not forget how many of the Oilers top forward prospects are not playing pro yet or are hurt.
The AHL team will add Holloway soon and, next season, likely Tulio, Savoie, Bourgault and maybe Petrov
I disagree on Kuffner, he can skate, has okay size and was an exceptional NCAA goal scorer 71 goals over his last 3 seasons (101 GP, that is a massive total). He was 23 when he was acquired, so not yet Pisani-old. And left shot LW, a real organizational need.
Blumel, I added him in after I wrote my initial thoughts and didn’t change the wording. I realize that he might still sign with the org down the road, but that ship likely will have sailed, shifting sands as they are.
This the kind of player that Pittsburgh brings in and has NHL success, he played 4 AHL games and he was not resigned… What is that, anyway? He could have at least filled a 3rd line role to start the season in Bakersfield last year.
I mention the 5 not-yet pro prospects, but my point is not about next season, it’s about the current and previous season…
Kuffner is 25 years old and currently playing in the ECHL – he was drafted by Holland who would know alot about him and I think Holland knew who he was this off-season.
Kuffner was not resigned in 2020, he got 10 games with DRW after signing as a UFA in March 2019. He came over in the AA trade and I thought it (and stated it here at the time of the trade) was a sneaky good move by Holland, as I follow the NCAA very closely.
Kuffner played only 4 games in Bakersfield and then was let go. The decision was a head-scratcher even to astute Oiler fans like Bruce McCurdy. Perhaps it was player-driven, but whatever the case I strongly feel it was a very poor decision by whomever made it.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/a-few-flashes-of-youthful-promise-among-edmonton-oilers-group-of-depth-forward-prospects
I think the move was justifiable/expected based on his very poor first AHL season (36-6-5-11, including 4-0-2-2 in his Bakersfield games). I was one of those thought there was potential for more based on his college career.
If nothing else I think his 2 seasons since have shown not re-signing him was the correct choice (20-21 in Germany scoring 0.45 points per game, and 5-0-0-0 in the AHL this season before being assigned to the ECHL).
Chris Kelly
I love you