Zach Hyman was on a very strong run when he was injured, Derek Ryan had a five-on-five goal differential of 3-3 and Jesse Puljujarvi had four goals in the 10 games before the break. Do you remember those games? It’s been a long time. I bet you’ll be surprised by some of the numbers.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospects have a long history of world juniors excellence
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
LAST 10 GAMES BEFORE THE BREAK (5-on-5, on ice)
These are five-on-five on ice results in the last 10 games. Some really good things here, but the Draisaitl line is more than just a small concern. Now, 10 games are a small sample but that’s shy by more than a little and the 29 line needs to be great in order for Edmonton to win.
Derek Ryan has a nice line through the last 10, Zack Kassian and Warren Foegele, too. Zach Hyman had a slow start five-on-five but was coming on before the injury. Jesse Puljujarvi is pushing a boulder up a hill every game, and Connor McDavid rockets through the night. Edmonton’s record in the last 10 games was 4-6-0, less than a disaster but more than a little concern.
LAST 10 GAMES BEFORE THE BREAK (5-on-5, individual)
Perlini played just three games of the 10, but looked good offensively. He has a howitzer. Hyman, Puljujarvi and McDavid were productive. I included the shooting totals and percentage only because the McDavid and Draisaitl numbers are rare indeed. They have posted 34 shots in 10 games, with one goal. I think that regresses hard when everyone gets back to work. If you know Perlini, tell him to keep shooting! He’s winning a job!
LAST 10 GAMES BEFORE THE BREAK (5-on-5, on ice)
Everyone but Slater Koekkoek and Duncan Keith played five or more games, so Nurse looks fine and Lagesson enjoyed a stellar run. Evan Bouchard is just so fine, what a player, look at those 50+ numbers.
Tyson Barrie is mid-40’s with three indicators that suggest that’s the expectation, a concern for sure with a reminder it’s 10 games. Still, we’ve seem him for significant time now and he needs to be just a little better in these metrics than he’s delivered since arriving in Edmonton (under 50 percent expected goals five-on-five both seasons). Cody Ceci has good possession numbers but shy on expected goals and in the ditch in actual goal differential.
LAST 10 GAMES BEFORE THE BREAK (5-on-5, individual)
Defensemen don’t post big numbers at five-on-five, Bouchard’s total (2.05) points-per-60 would have landed the skilled blue No. 1 in the last two seasons. His 1.46 points-per-60 overall this season has him No. 20 among NHL regulars. Nurse is high shots-per-60 with zero goals five-on-five but has been over 1.00 points-per-60 three seasons running, I believe he’ll recover (currently at .76 per-60).
LINES YEAR OVER YEAR (First 29 games)
I haven’t yet drilled down on Darcy McLeod’s latest work (here) but read about it from others through my wanderings yesterday. He was focused on bottom-six goal share at five-on-five, and as you see the Oilers are a drain there, and it isn’t getting better.
One thing we might be talking about in the new year is the McDavid-Draisaitl wand losing its magic. That’s a large fall from the last two seasons, and may point to fatigue, opposition strategy, luck and support. We can also point to shooting percentage, as above. Either way, the two men are more productive without than with for the first time in memory. Hurry regression!
I’ve always been a big lagasson supporter.
My bias is probably colouring my judgement but man if he can keep up this play and stop the bleeding GA that would be huge.
Keith Barrie as third pair has the potential to be a very good third pair, if not a cost effective one.
Struddy likes him too, but I think Niemelainen may eat his lunch.
Taking a 5 minute look, their deployment was highly comparable as far as zone starts and QoC – even their PDO was almost identical and they both played 7 games.
Their possession and goal share metrics favor Lagesson (GA/60 almost identical but the team scored a bit with Lagesson on the ice).
Small samples, oubviously.
Style-wise, fans love the big hits.
We certainly do!
Whoops, sorry I misread “big hits”
Not this year. Lagesson makes fewer mistakes at this point in time.
Niemelainen has more upside, but is rawer. So all other things being equal, the Oilers marginally benefit more by playing Lagesson, and grooming Niemelainen a bit more in Bakersfield.
Best we’ve seen Lagesson play is the past two to three games. I’d like to see some sustain… but if he can sustain it, that’s a pretty good option for the bottom half of the batting order.
He’s looked real good, and so much more poised, comfortable, assertive.
That’s the key, we’ll see if he can keep it up.
There’s a need and he has the skill set to fill it.
Zen Master says we’ll see.
Lagesson will find an NHL home if he stays in NA
If they see Niems as being as mobile and puck able being 3 years younger and physical he’s the keeper
For me it’s too bad the oilers can never trade capable players they develop for something. Maybe as the roster builds deeper they will, but since forever they burn picks.
Perhaps being seen as a serious team helps that
Getting some huge heat on Twitter.
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
· 5h
Never quite got bullish Oiler fans for Chychrun trade? Yes, he’s a good player on poor team. But if the ask would be Broberg, their best prospect, why would they do that? Until Oilers really know what they’ve got in Broberg, they aren’t trading a 20-year-old left D.
Byron Bader
@ByronMBader
·
Dec 16
The odds Broberg is better than Chychrun are almost zero. The odds he’s as good … very small. The odds he’s worse, to some degree … very high.
@thupka1982
·
4h
Because the clock is fucking ticking, that’s why. They need Chychrun now and not some probability of Broberg being not as good as Chychrun 3 years from now.
Stop screwing around and get better, FFS.
I think the Oilers should pursue Chychrun, and if Broberg is the price, they should make the deal. I don’t know that the price is Broberg, could be more, could be less.
Holland, based on the verbal we’re getting from the smokestack lightning that is the intel pipeline, won’t make that move. I understand the anger but the owner hired Holland and he has a measure twice, cut once approach.
Oilers will get a Kulikov at the deadline, is my prediction. I like him far more than Mr. Bader, who imo is a bright fellow, but estimating defensive value is something we haven’t surrounded yet.
If Chychrun for Broberg was an available deal, the Oilers and Holland would make that in a split second (and find a way to work in the cap).
Of course, the deal would be Chychrun for Broberg plus a 1st plus another similar asset (1st or Holloway) plus a 2nd rounder plus them agreeing to a cap dump.
Broberg as the main piece going back in a Chychrun deal makes sense as its a high value asset going out (which is one piece required) and, well, Nurse/Chychrun as 1/2LD for years).
The assets that would need to be added make it a non-realistic deal for the Oilers, in my opinion.
100% agreed. I can’t give up the extra asset(s) either.
There’s still Klef to consider next year. He will, at the least, try out. I think it would have to be a huge obstacle for him not to attempt to start. He’s just that kind of guy.
Keith is only there to cover Oscar’s injury and to buy space for the Broberg segue. Well and for playoff guidance Which is why the org will stick by him through at least one playoff season.
Giving up extra assets for an area that’s not a top need and a bevy of internal options just seems wrong.
I can see the argument given timelines for a one for one
For me I can’t get past Chycrun’s injury history. It would e different if he had no major surgeries. But he has and that has to mitigate his value to a solid deal making GM
If Klefbom came back well, could Holland get full pop for him? Not a chance that would happen.
Its like last season when teams were asking for Samo. Feels like another awful deal is what would be the result.
This isn’t a realistic Cup year. I’d rather have 3 young LD deserving of a NHL job and get a proper return for one.
Maybe swap + for a RD as that is where D is thin. Not sure the farm has any help there in the near future, unless Berglund does something to get more noticed
I don’t think McDraivid re-sign if the Oilers trade for Chychrun, because one remains cap constrained without prospects when their contracts expire.
A Chychrun trade says the next three years is everything. And then McDraivid go all Brady and LeBron and choose a team contending team with cap room and prospects, and that won’t be the Oilers.
Chychrun is a three year bet, and then you can’t afford him. And you have no prospects in the pipeline. And then it is Nurse with nothing behind him on the D.
The ask is very clearly not one for one
They made their bed with the Keith trade
I would be very shocked if they used assets on a defenseman
I mean I would but Holland won’t
Dammit, I really wanted to see Dima’s debut on Monday.
I know this is silly, but it was said earlier that Kassian craters essentially every player he plays with. So I decided to look up his most common center linemates by season through his career.
Year Linemate Minutes GF%With GF%WithoutKassian
12-13 Max Lapierre — 122 50.0% 38.1%
12-13 Henrik Sedin —- 122 66.7% 73.5%
13-14 Brad Richardson 475 51.2% 47.4%
14-15 Brad Richardson 211 33.3% 66.7%
15-16 Mark Letestu —- 228 28.9% 30.0%
16-17 Mark Letestu —- 320 55.0% 48.3%
17-18 Mark Letestu —- 396 35.5% 22.2%
18-19 Connor McDavid 429 50.9% 50.0%
19-20 Connor McDavid 663 54.5% 46.7%
20-21 Connor McDavid- 98 50.0% 55.3%
21-22 Derek Ryan —— 106 46.2% 0.0%
(note: this is from the ‘teammates’ tab on NST so the ‘without’ is only from games that both players played in)
I dunno, seems pretty normal. Some players were better with Kassian (7), some were better without him (4). Also 7 of the 11 most common centers were at 50% GF or better with him.
Things that make you go hmmmm
@DNBsports
·
2h
The NHL schedule will not resume earlier than Dec. 28. The Oilers-Flames game scheduled for Dec. 27 has been pushed back. We’ll see what happens when testing resumes Sunday.
Pushing the game back isn’t expected to change the statuses of Keith, Puljujarvi, Nurse, Lagesson.
Subject to symptoms and the negative tests, Keith should be available, he’ll be past the 10 days (December 17).
Nurse/Lagesson went in to protocol on the 20th so wouldn’t be available for the game on 29th – hopefully the 31st (although they may not have a chance to get a skate it, depending on technical timing).
No Oilers/Flames on Monday – all games on the 27th postponed (teams still return on the 26th) and the league is targeting a resumption on the 28th.
mondays the 27ths cancelled
The bottom 6 is getting to be a real head scratcher for me. Players who do well in those roles on other teams seem to crater in Edmonton. Maybe the D compounds the issue.
I’m starting to think part of it may be due to lack of ice time and potentially role. The team is clearly McDavid and Draisailt’s and they’re played a ton. They’re even out when the other team pulls their goalie. I’d like to see a run of games with more minutes and responsibility for the bottom 6.
A couple of new guys or graduating prospects might help too but it’s tough to say after staring at the same problem for over a decade.
I will give you a hint. K.
Z best that I can do.
May I ask that you explain the poor bottom 6 in 2019/20 when Kassian played 85% of his minutes in the top 6.
I’m sure it was Tyson Barrie’s fault, even though he wasn’t on the team, mind you.
I’m no Kassian fan but the bottom 6 problems have gone on far longer than he’s been around and they go far deeper than him
One can start with the low hanging fruit. You know, the obvious stuff.
Merry Christmas everyone. I hope you’re all spending it with those you love. Try chilling together over a good Christmas movie (like Die Hard).
May our adversaries experience loss and illness!
Finally bought it.
Every Christmas the bastards put it behind a paywall at Christmas…although free to watch in the summer.
Yep, me too – really nice HD cleaned up version from the Bezos-verse. My teenagers even loved it and got a kick out of the analog communications.
I’m of the opinion that it is poor coaching and strategy. You could see how much more effectively the roster was deployed by Gully. Just think about what a top end coach could achieve. All Tip does is load up the top 6F / top 4D/ top G and forgets about the rest of the roster. It’s a massively inefficient use of resources.
Give each of the 3 centers (RNH/Drai/McDavid) one extra shift every period to cover the 4th line. Nobody in the top 6 PKs unless injuries or penalties demand it. Use a damn 2nd PP and drop all the 2 minute shifts. All that does is put the stars into cruise control instead of playing at a high level 5×5. Tip operates like a CHL coach the way he uses his top end players – and it creates the same bad habits.
Expecting different results from a Tippett coached team is not realistic.
I’m just speculating here but I don’t think Tippett would have run his bench any different and, given we know Tippett was involved in all the meetings, etc., I would posit that he was involved in the deployment plan.
I would note, they relied up McDavid and Drai just as much – they actually played more than their season average.
The two fourth liners also barely played – they were each around 5:30 for the game even though they both had positive shifts.
Perlini wants to win a job he needs to bring his motor to work every game, follow his shots to the net, and attempt fore checking.
He’s got to make the play happen instead of waiting for it, he’ll be a compounding head scratcher until he does.
Playfair should pull him to the side and tell him to mimic Foggy as best he can, his shot should be able to do the rest.
The numbers also meet my eye test with Nurse and that he was playing much better since he came back from his injury – at both ends of the ice (I thought he was trying to do too much earlier in the year which leads to bad decisions in the defensive zone – i.e. puck-chasing and going walkabout).
Evan Bouchard is going to be John Carlsson – he’s an offensive phenom and, if he gets real PP1 time next season, that contract could be hefty (although it aligns with the cap likely being correlated to HRR and there could be a massive bump). His 5 on 5 production is elite already.
2 questions:
Is it too early to run Tyson Barrie out of town?
And why can’t one of Broberg, Samorukov or Niemelainen shoot right?
Never too early
Both Samorukov and Broberg have played the right side D a lot. By what I recall most of Samorukov’s KHL year was spent playing right D.
This is true but they have both been used exclusively on the left side in the AHL (even Lagesson was moved to the right side with both of them in the lineup) and, except for a few shifts for Broberg out of necessity, the same in the NHL.
For sure, maybe one of those two can play their off-side almost as effectively as their natural side in the NHL, in time, but that is definitely the exception even with those that had success doing it in Europe (where the big ice and style of game gives the d-man materially more time to make plays with the puck).
Totally agree. It is nice to know however that they have played their off sides with reasonable results.
Agree on Nurse. He was Great the last few games
I’ve been trying to keep my expectation on Bouchard in check, but he really has produced elite(ish) offense at every step.
LT notes his P/60 (1.46) – it’s 19th among the 192 most used defensemen this season.
Last season his 1.27 P/60 would have tied him for 16th (had he qualified by minutes).
Put the two seasons together Bouchard jumps up to 7th in P/60 since most of the guys haven’t done it consistently (and he does qualify among the 186 most used D over 2 years).
Plus, it turns out he can play D too.
yeah but unfortunately he’s no Rafferty ;)…
Zubov is such a treat to watch, wait sorry Bouchard is such a treat to watch.
Zubov was sooooo good, and an Oiler killer as well.
At the same time, style-wise, I don’t think they are comparable at all – maybe I am misremembering Zubov but I don’t think so.
Zubov was an elite skater.
Did you know that Zubov’s career high in even strength points was 39, and he never had more than 32 any other year.
Bouchard is on pace for 42 even strength points this season.
Be even more interesting to see how those numbers shake out with era adjustments.
The year Zubov scored 39 EV points, the average team scored 3.24 goals per game.
The average goals per game this year is 2.99 so I guess Bouchard’s current season is even more important compared to Zubov’s.
Those numbers for the last 10 games look fantastic but for the 2nd line. Man that second line…. one would have to think that it would “get going” if the staff stuck with it. With that said, the sample size for that line is no longer “small”……. I still think they could get going but, if Foegele sticks on McDavid’s left wing for a bit while the lineup is healthy, that could push Yamo to 3RW (and Hyman to the right side).
The numbers do seem to jive with the eye test that, near the end of the 6-game losing streak, the team was playing well and could have won some games. They made Ullmark look good against the Bruins but Andersson and Campbell were huge reasons why the Canes and Leafs won those games (Talbot too against the Wild).
Of course, I have noting but respect for Bruce McCurdy (and have worked with him on Oilers content) and I value his opinion.
I recall positing similar to you, that Kuffner may have been more than just a throw in and I was surprised, like you and Bruce, that he was not qualified.
At the same time, at this point, its hard to argue that is was a poor decision, let along a very poor decision given where the player is now – 25 years old and in the ECHL coming off a meh season in the German league.
I value your opinion on players in non-NHL leagues, such as the NCAA, however, on this player, Ken Holland drafted the player and had him in his system for many years post college. I think he had all the relevant intel necessary to make that decision back in 2020 (in Covid-times) and, as it turns out, it was the right decision.
Confess I didn’t see Kuffner as being more than a player Detroit needed to offload for a spot on the 50-man to make room for another. That said, and I do remember Bruce’s contrary view, it’s good to have opinions that differ from each other. Not to ‘declare’ a winner, but rather to receive both sides (or more) of the story as it unfolds.
I think Kuffner’s scoring rates were intriguing enough to sign him, and do not know if Holland had genuine interest or was taking on Kuffner because Detroit insisted on sending two contracts for Gagner. It doesn’t matter, really. It was an interesting conversation.
For sure it was an interesting conversation.
At the same time, I’m not sure how, today, the move not to bring Kuffner back for 2021 (last season) can be viewed as a glaring mistake.
Sure, I understand. But we can also let things go without official proclamations.
You know, I yelled and screamed the the Oilers should sign second-round pick Marco Roy to an NHL contract, but Peter Chiarelli signed Braden Christoffer instead. He was tougher, but less talented. I felt (and was proven correct) that Marco Roy would score more points than the Oilers signed players from his draft in 2015-16, and he did save for Anton Slepyshev.
I don’t think someone who touted Greg Chase or Kyle Platzer was incorrect or addled in their thinking. It’s a matter of how we see things, but I don’t believe people should keep score. It’s an opinion, not testimony under oath.
https://theahl.com/stats/player-stats/402/51?playertype=skater&position=skaters&rookie=yes&sort=points&statstype=expanded&page=1&league=4
I was simply having a discussion on the subject and, frankly, it was an official proclamation (re: it was terrible mistake by Holland) that I was responding to.
With respect, I don’t understand why that particular post of mine is being called out but, given the respect, and its Christmas eve, etc. happy to move on.
No worries at all, and Merry Christmas OP.
Thank you sir and, of course, to you and yours.
A very low-key day for us tomorrow as I was supposed to be driving the wife to the airport for her flight to Morocco early tomorrow morning – that is not happening.
And hope your Hanukkah was filled with goodness and light.
Bah, and I wished a Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah, OP!
No worries at all – Chanukah was a life-time ago this year, started in November. The wife is a covert so there is a long history of Christmas Celebrations there – it remains meaningful.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays All!
The Oilers have a quality 3C, he’s on the roster now.
It’s a good thing too, because the acquisition cost to trade for one would be high.
Trading for a second line RW would solve more than one problem.
Funny thing is
XX – RNH – Yammo
doesn’t exactly look like a killer third, but at least we don’t need it to be the second line.
Now just need the pro scouts to identify the right player, have the analytics department confirm the numbers.
And then have Holland aquire said asset with a severe under pay using B level prospects and Mid round futures
What could go wrong?
sarcasm alert
Ideally, you would want your 3C to lead the PK#1 unit.
That would require a player who can win more than 50% of face-offs.
Nuge is below 40%
So our 2nd highest pk forward can’t pk if he also plays 3c?
Of course he can but winning face-offs on the PK is a big deal.
If he is paired with another player who can win more than his share, he would be fine.
Firstly, its ludicrous to state that a 3C has to be PK1 (even if the poster hadn’t trumpeted Byfield as a 3C being a boon for a team) and that being good on the faceoff was a requirement for that.
Even if that was a “requirement” for a 3C, this was made in relation to a player that is on PK1 and has been all season long, was on a mix of PK1/PK2 last season and has a long history on the PK.
This is a top PK guy on a team that is 7th in the NHL on the PK this season and was 9th last season.
That 7th place was also much higher until 2/3 of the d-core was hurt – that cratered the PK in recent weeks.
What a wild position we have here.
I honestly don’t care if RNH ever PK’s again.
Just saw off the comp at 50% goal share, pls & thx.
That would be a massive success for the Oilers bottom 6, comparatively speaking
That’s a really odd statement to make for a person that was recently talking up how great a team with Byfield as 3C is.
Totally different situation.
Byfield projects as an elite #1C and just turned 19.
As he develops, Kopitar and Danaut are holding down the fort.
Not surprised you are unable to discern the subtleties.
What does that have to do with your position that a 3C needs to be PK1 with great faceoff ability and the fact that you trumpeted Byfield at 3C for the Kings as such an amazing set-up?
Have you ever heard of Phillip Danault?
He is the Kings future elite #3C.
A potential Selke candidate with a FO win percentage of 55.8%
Winning!
You’re focusing on faceoff wins, HH. You know that isn’t the big deal on PK. Over three seasons, Nuge (among those who PK’d over 150 minutes total in those seasons) ranks No. 18 in GA/60.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=150+&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Is 18th good in a 31 team league?
Yes, is this a joke?
Nuge is 18th of the 136 most used forwards (check the link).
JT Miller is 135th of 136 (53.5% on faceoffs).
Anze Kopitar is 131st of 136 (but 57% on faceoffs, so it’s all good I guess).
Who were 1 through 17?
Merry Christmas HH.
The Kings center position, this season, was trumpeting as the best in the NHL and a main part of such trumpeting was due to Byfield in the 3C hole.
It is now posited that the 3C must be a top line PK guy and great faceoff guy and, given that does not describe Byfield, I’m trying understand how the two statements can be made by the same person.
I’m not sure what Danault playing 2C has to do with the above.
well, it’s difficult to keep track of all those goal posts moving… same as it ever was 🙂
This is the way. I don’t think we get there until next year.
I think Holland will make a deadline acquisition for a top 6 forward.
Which is both exciting and scary at the same time.
Hopefully Tippett will try this,
not going to hold my breath
Holloway.
I encourage you to listen to Holland on Gregor’s show yesterday.
Was very clear that he thinks its likely Holloway spends the rest of the season in the AHL (once he’s ready: hoping for practice in mid-January and games in early February).
He implied that you never know but that is the current plan and its not reasonable to think he’ll impact the Oilers’ roster until October 2022.
Woodguy alluded to this yesterday and I think it’s a wise take. Sadly, the D is poor and that is seeping into everyone’s results. My take is this:
Keith has been a failure, no two ways about it. His puck moving ability is there, but he can’t defend in a top 4 role. ~ 40 GF is not going to cut it. This is essentially what Jones was, btw, except now we’re paying someone 5 million. Keith has been poor and declining for multiple seasons now. Plus, I have to listen to Leavins lecture me on being “respectful.”
Barrie is Barrie.
I don’t think the bottom six gets better without the D getting significantly better.
Holland mucked things up pretty badly, sorry fellas. Wait for Broberg and Sam.
Yeah, the Keith acquisition was never going to end (or start) well.
I think many, myself included, were shocked by the eye test that he looked better than expected. Still he can’t defend zone entries with his limited mobility.
There are a variety of scenarios going forward. The most likely (and unfortunately worse case scenario) is that he’s clogging up a mix of cap and LTIR as he gets healthy and injured again for the remainder of his contract.
The best case scenario is retirement after this season, but that would be unlikely.
Keith got hurt in the Dallas game up to this point the Oilers we 13 wins and 4 losses. Small point lost in all the advanced stats.
You just knew the second you heard:
“We’ll see whose a step behind come training camp”
that it wasn’t going to age well
“Plus, I have to listen to Leavins lecture me on being “respectful.”” – I have felt this as well. I used to look forward to reading his weekly thoughts. Recently, I have felt like a teenager being talked at by Dad. And, just to go on a further tangent, the Oilers and their fans owe nothing to Duncan Keith and his accomplishments in Chicago. A new city means a clean slate and a new opportunity. What you did for the competition no longer matters.
That is a fair guess that WG made in the ongoing search to understand years of bottom 6 suck.
I recall looking at the D in bottom 6 minutes at some point last year but figured I’d look again. I’ll check the 3 seasons since Holland/Tippett joined the fold. This is minutes with all of McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge on the bench.
Oilers defensemen bottom 6 minutes, GF%ON, GF%OFF:
(GF%OFF is only for the years each player was with the team, I ordered them byTOI)
Larsson — 850 38.8 35.8
Nurse —- 816 34.9 35.6
Russell — 710 39.5 34.4
Bear —— 687 32.0 38.9
Jones —- 520 30.3 38.4
Klefbom – 417 42.4 35.7
Barrie —- 336 35.5 32.1
Benning – 274 40.0 38.0
Bouchard 254 35.3 32.6
Lagesson 225 52.9 33.7 (9-8 GF, 42.5% shots)
Ceci —— 170 35.7 26.9
Koekkoek 148 15.4 35.4 (2-11GF, 39.5% shots)
Keith —– 130 30.8 29.6
Aside from a couple of small sample size numbers (Lagesson and Koekkoek) I see a whole lot of meh. The bottom 6 isn’t performing well with the ‘good’ defensemen, and it isn’t cratering with the ‘bad’ defensemen. WOWYs don’t show big differences in how the bottom 6 performs with different players on/off.
I’d take this to suggest that the D aren’t likely the source of the years long problem, though I also don’t have my own good explanation for what has/is transpiring.
Good stuff jp. Thanks!
Also of course thanks WG on the excellent blog post about the bottomless 6. Wow. I cancelled plans for the parade.
Are you using NST’s line tool without 29 and 97 as a proxy?
I recalled that Larsson was given the bulk of the “Shawshank” minutes last year playing with the bottom six the most.
Last year he played 568 without 29 and 97 vs Nurse who only played 293 minutes.
Yes, but with 97, 29 and 93 off.
Larsson did get those minutes – he still leads the team with 850 min (more than Nurse) despite departing 30 games ago.
Alternatively, this might be evidence that the Oilers D in its entirety is significantly worse than people think and Drai & Connor are significantly better than people think.
Yes, could be that too. Or that the bottom 6 forwards own their suck.
Has anyone considered that virtually the entire D is a rebuild with only Nurse and Russel with more than two years on the team. The strength of the group is the future with the maturation of Bouchard and the promising add of Broberg Samorukov and anchored by Nurse.
Good data.
I still think a poor Dcorps is at the the root, but EDM’s poor bottom 6 forward corps are a compounding factor.
Thanks, and fair enough for sure.
I think the data (this, yours, other) doesn’t provide a clear answer, otherwise there’d be more consensus on it (and we do agree on stuff sometimes! – big we in this case).
I’d guess there’s some contribution from most of the theories that are being discussed lately since none are explaining things on their own (for me to buy into at least).
Agreed all points with you and Ryan
I’m sorry but comparing Caleb Jones to Duncan Keith with respect to role is not being honest.
Duncan Keith is starting a very high amount of shifts in the defensive zone and playing about 33% of his minutes against elites (basically a third against all three categories).
Last season, Caleb Jones got a massive offensive zone start push and played 26% of his minutes against elites and 42% against gritensity.
I’m not saying the trade was right given cap hits, etc., etc., but is it even arguable that Keith is a much better 2LD than Caleb Jones was as an Oiler? I don’t think so.
Dear Santa,
What I really want for Christmas is good health for all.
But especially a young man named Klefbom over in Sweden. If he could return to playing hockey this spring that would be swell.
Well I got you Santa could you make young Puljujarvi a very rich man. With a very big wage for a very long time, he brings so much joy to all.
Thanks Santa.
My dream(y) is KBomb returning for the playoffs. If he’s anywhere near up-to-speed, that’s a killer D corps.
Can’t agree with your last wish though. Love Pujo, but love the team more… I’d rather he be paid properly.
Well, it is possible for him to be paid properly and also become a very rich young man. Perhaps St. Nick can deliver a deal that makes everyone happy.
If we can’t find a bottom six centre of consistent quality (at least even GF-GA), then it might be wise to double shift the big three with a bottom six line instead of loading up the Dynamic Duo so often.
New look for the opposition, and less cumulative fatigue over time.
Spread the wealth.
Maybe it’s turning out Tipp’s belief in the magical recuperative powers of Connor Leo and Darnell are perhaps, not true, and while in the moment they get their wind back quickly, the cumulative effect is burning out mentally and physically.
This is definitely a problem
The bottom six issue has been a perpetual issue for years. It’s a fascinating problem in that I have more questions than answers.
For example, is it a weak link issue in which one player is sinking a line (Ryan earlier in the year) or is a matter of the lines themselves just being too weakly staffed with players?
Is it a blue line issue where the bottom six is given too much time with a weak third pariing?
A combination of the weaklink/line paired with the 3rd pairing?
I remember years ago when we complained that Colin Fraser wasn’t good enough to centre our fourth line and we needed an upgrade.. then the Kings traded for him and won a cup with him.
i think most 3rd Nd 4th lines play best as units and its hard for them to get there identity as a line when its changed every year.
The TBL would beg to differ.
Poor pro scouting and the lack of serious analytics, as confirmed by Holland this week, are at the heart of the matter.
Holland confirmed nothing of the sort.
Your wild interpretation of a statement is not confirmation of anything.
Well, it is continued confirmation of the poster’s agenda.
Maybe Santa will bring him a plexiglass glass stomach so he is able to see with his head up his ass!
LOL, I was going to include something along those lines in my post but, really, no confirmation was needed……
That could be a factor, but I think it’s more a combination not having the ability to identify the right players (professional scouting / analytics department) along with a poor overall blue line.
You have to change the players every year when you’re bringing in players like Turris.
Even Foegele whom I like as a player, they paid dearly for him (trading Bear) and he has a fairly hefty salary for a 3rd line winger, but they didn’t identify the right qualities.
He looks great to the eye test crashing the net and forechecking, but he’s neither a defensive ace nor real plus shooter–those are the type of players you need over replacement level to have an effective third line.
Also see the same over the years. Unfortunately.
Reminds me of the divide in opinion between the defense is bad so Duby has no chance, and the Duby is a bad goalie camps.
They did win the cup with him although Fraser averaged 8:34 TOI/G (total) during the playoffs and I’m sure there were a number of games well over 60 minutes.
Kassian is the likely reason for every 3rd line centre failure. He is the constant in bottom six failure from the beginning of the Chiarelli era.
Kassian is horrible defensively, doesn’t battle hard, and is randomly positioned on the ice, which makes him nearly impossible to play well with consistently.
That’s why Kenny re upped him !! All the good qualities 😎
So what is the reason for 2019/20 where Kassian played 663 out of apx 800 minutes with McDavid?
Kassian was destroying the team on the first line, and the team was slip sliding out of a playoff spot, after a hot start. And Draisaitl ended up a broken player in December, collecting minuses like every 3rd line centre who played regularly with Kassian.
Really Godot, this is truly and completely absurd.
Your position is that the bottom six has been cratered by Kassian for years now. In 2019/20, Kassian played 85% or so of his minutes in the top 6 so how did he crater the bottom 6 that season?
This is what they did against Seattle.
Griffith/Marody played over 2 minutes with each of Drai and McDavid pretty much covering the 5:30 each played.
Its a decent plan, and should be effective, with the only issue for me being cumulative minutes for those guys. They each have their regular 5 on 5 shift (plus PP plus PK a bit for Leon plus faceoff assignments) and now another 3 minutes each (give or take) on the fourth line.
It may not be feasible when they are in a heavy part of the schedule.