Life can be wildly unfair, and in sports you can see it coming from miles away. Take for example the battle that may never arrive (but is anticipated) between Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov for a spot on Edmonton’s LH side defense behind Darnell Nurse and (eventually Philip Broberg).
Niemalainen pushed ahead in the perceived race with a strong NHL debut, but got himself hurt and is out for a time (probably 2-3 weeks). That gives Dmitri Samorukov a chance to show what he can do, and if he performs well, all that good work by Niemelainen will be covered over by new impressions about the Russian.
These things matter. One of these men could be here for the rest of the decade, the other down the line with no fixed address. It happens every year, in every hockey league. In the NHL, the stakes are higher.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- New DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects have a long history of world juniors excellence
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
Raimo Summanen arrived at 1985’s training camp with a good chance to win an NHL job. He had been in the AHL (age 22) the year before, scoring 20-33-53 in 66 games for the Nova Scotia Oilers. Pat Conacher and Steve Graves were also in the mix from the minors, and young Esa Tikkanen was pushing but just 20 and the Oilers weren’t sure he was ready.
Summanen picked up an even-strength assist (primary) on a goal by Jari Kurri (99 with second assist) in the second game of the year. He grabbed another primary assist on a Glenn Anderson goal in the next game (second assist went to the line’s center, Kevin McClelland) and scored in the fifth game (assists to Mark Messier, Paul Coffey) in the fifth game of the year.
Five games in, 1-2-3 and all at even strength, with Summanen playing with brilliant skill linemates. Edmonton had four terrific centers that season and in 73 games, Summanen scored 37 points, or about a point ever two games. That landed him in a tie for sixth in even-strength goals (18, with Craig MacTavish) and eighth in assists (17) in the discipline. He divided his even-strength points among the lines like this:
- Wayne Gretzky line: 5-4-9
- Mark Messier line: 2-5-7
- Craig MacTavish line: 2-0-2
- Kevin McCelland line: 3-7-10
- Unknown: 5-2-7
Unknown are goals like “Summanen (Kurri, Huddy)” which is probably a Gretzky goal but I can’t verify with the tools left from the before time. The information available ably shows us that Summanen rotated across three of the four lines and it looks fairly even from here. Now, these are the left winger totals in 1985-86 at even strength:
- Raimo Summanen 17-18-35 (three different lines)
- Dave Hunter 15-20-35 (mostly with the Gretzky line)
- Mike Krushelnyski 13-16-29 (mostly with Messier and MacTavish lines)
- Dave Semenko 6-12-18 (mostly with the Gretzky line)
- Esa Tikkanen 7-5-12 (mostly with the McClelland line)
Glen Sather was trying to bring along the two young Finns (Summanen and Tikkanen) and use Mark Napier on MacT’s line, so veterans Dave Hunter and Dave Semenko got feature time in 1985-86. That was not unusual for Semenko, somewhat unusual for Hunter.
I have always felt, just an opinion, that Summanen would have stayed longer (he was sent to Vancouver in March 1987) if the Oilers had been able to win the 1986 Stanley Cup.
Slats worked very hard summer 1986 and all through the year to upgrade in specific areas, and the left wingers in 1986-87 (a Stanley season) ran like this:
- Esa Tikkanen 27-36-63 (mostly with the Gretzky line)
- Mike Krushelnyski 11-31-42 (some with Gretzky line, Nov-Dec with Messier)
- Raimo Summanen 10-7-17 (mostly with Krushelnyski line)
- Kent Nilsson 4-10-14 (mostly with Messier line)
- Dave Hunter 5-8-13 (played on every line)
- Jaroslav Pouzar 2-3-5 (mostly with Krushelnyski line)
It was a strange year, Messier was in on a lot of goals with 99, as was Anderson, Slats loading up from time to time and running Krushelnyski in the middle.
There was also a ton of in-season auditioning, with the acquisition of Nilsson giving the top-six a complete look (Nilsson with Messier and Anderson, Tikkanen on the 99 line). Danny Gare played on this team, Normand Lacombe got a game, Moe Lemay. Lots of wingers, kind of like 1979-80 in Edmonton.
By 1987-88, the left wing position became a real strength on the Oilers roster.
By this point Tikkanen was establishing himself as a five-year (or longer solution) on the Gretzky-Kurri line, and Slats was trying to find the final piece for Messier-Anderson. Nilsson was an inspired short-term solution, and the trade for Craig Simpson sealed the wall for all the Summanen-types coming down the pipe.
Tikkanen would play a feature role on LW in Edmonton for seven years, Simpson six seasons before injuries derailed him. Here are the 1987-88 LW totals:
- Esa Tikkanen 16-33-49 (Gretzky line)
- Craig Simpson 25-13-38 (Simpson-Messier-Anderson)
- Dave Hannan 7-11-18 (MacT and Krushelnyski lines)
- Normand Lacome 7-9-16 (Messier and Krushelnyski lines)
- Steve Graves 3-4-7 (McLelland line)
It’s confusing looking back, especially 1987-88 because Slats had so many centers. Some of the scoring lines have Krushelnyski, MacT and Dave Hannan on the same line! There were a lot of centers, Keith Acton for a time, too. This gives you a feel for things.
Raimo Summanen played his final NHL game for the Vancouver Canucks on November 1, 1987. He was out of the league before Sather traded for the team’s five-year plan at No. 2 LW (Craig Simpson) on November 23 of that year.
Hockey teams are like jigsaw puzzles. You can try to force a piece into a slot, but they only stay there if they really belong.
FIVE-YEAR SOLUTIONS
You can see the potential for five-year solutions bubbling up from Bakersfield and perhaps filling holes across the roster.
- Goaltenders Stuart Skinner and Ilya Konovalov (since December 1) both offer the organization inexpensive options and possibly major year over year savings.
- Left defensemen Markus Niemelainen, Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov could all have NHL careers, but not all of them will be playing five-plus years in Edmonton.
- Center Ryan McLeod is the only obvious solution I see who is playing currently and coming down the pipe. Dylan Holloway is a highly rated prospect who may land as a center in the NHL, but the uncertainty over his status following two surgeries casts a pall over his possible future. If healthy, there’s a very good chance he is the top prospect in the system.
- Left Wingers Carter Savoie and Matvey Petrov are depth picks who appear to be tracking as bona fide top-six NHL forwards in the future. A strong reminder that mirages do occur in these situations, but in both the Savoie and Petrov cases it appears the Oilers scouts have stolen players. Tyler Benson is pushing now, he could use a three game run similar to Summanen’s fall 1985, but the young man doesn’t line up with Gretzky or Messier.
- Right Wingers Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio offer the biggest hope at this position. Both should be pro ready next fall and we’re likely to see some movement at the position across the Oilers-Condors roster for 2022-23. Raphael Lavoie remains a player worth following, his five-point game just before Christmas was a positive sign.
That’s one dozen or so possible five-year solutions but it never works out as planned. That’s the lesson of Summanen and Tikkanen. Both were mid-round picks and Edmonton was lucky to get one quality player from the duo. That’s kind of the ratio to use, one or two players arriving out of a group of three to five.
Is Jesse Puljujarvi a five-year solution? Looks like it. Kailer Yamamoto? There’s some Summanen-like things on his resume, but I remain convinced he can play effectively (if healthy) in the NHL with his unique skill set. The puck is miles from home with KY on this ice, and my goodness this Oilers team needs that one thing.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We’re back and it’s a busy week! TSN1260, beginning at 10 this morning. We’ll talk Oilers lineup and schedule, the World Juniors including Bourgault and Luca Munzenberger, plus NFL weekend. Tyler Yaremchuk from Oilers Nation and DFO will touch base and we’re working on a WJ guest whose name might be Jason. NFL, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Capfriendly has Broberg on the taxi squad and Puckpedia has him “sent down” – makes sense with Keith being ready and the Condors playing tonight.
In any event the Oilers would only have to clear apx $655K to activate Smith which would likely be assigning Skinner.
I wonder if the Oilers will waive Turris or Mikko tomorrow in conjunction with a Smith activation. There are situations where the league will allow the cap alleviation (for these guys, $1.125MM) on the day of waiving mandating re-assignment immediately upon clearing (or being claimed).
Its going to be tough to get cap compliant for this.
Everyone with any Hockey sense knew Freddy would bounce back after he left the tough Toronto microscope media market.
Even with The Bourg out, there’s still an Oiler prospect hitting the scoreboard tonight, as Max Wanner just picked up an assist in period 2.
Ok, What is going on for world junior attendance in Edmonton?
I know capacity is capped at 50% and it’s cold , but there’s maybe 500 people at the game tonight and most of them are relatives of the players
30%+ positivity rate is killing the vibe.
people are protecting themselves
Thought they had pre-sold a bunch of tickets? Oilers games have what 10k or so?
The drop off to this is shocking
U cannot est or drink for 3 hours if you choose to go to the game. That’s not helping attendance
A guy that I play hockey with dropped his tickets because of this. He was given the option of a full refund when they announced the restrictions and he took it. Also, tickets are way overpriced for junior hockey. Pre-tournament prices were $200-350/ticket for round robin games, which is crazy, in my opinion. Maybe the prices will come down now that people see the rink at one quarter capacity.
Imagine paying $200 to see Austria play.
The hype exceeds the product by a considerable margin. There are 5 power teams (Canada, USA, Russia, Sweden, Finland) split into 2 groups, meaning exactly 4 (of the 20) round robin games will be a match-up between 2 of them. In a given year there might be a relatively strong team from Czechia or one of the other next level hockey countries, but the gap between haves & have-nots is growing if anything.
The medal round is a different story though even then prices in that range are a huge ask. Especially when the live experience is as sorely compromised as the current situation dictates.
I would argue there’s decent entertainment in most of the games so far regardless of the teams playing. $200 worth of value is questionable though.
Forgot about the no drinks or food. That does take away from the experience.
Gotta think Hockey Canada personnel are devastated at the turnout.
FOX 5 Atlanta (@FOX5Atlanta) Tweeted:
John Earl Madden, a former Oakland Raiders coaching great who went on to become the most famous sportscaster in history, died on Tuesday, the NFL confirmed. He was 85 years old. https://t.co/P7G9pf2Ns8
https://twitter.com/FOX5Atlanta/status/1475992546652393474?s=20
Surprised someone would disrespect Madden here.
The winningest coach in NFL history and the most revered sports broadcaster in history.
Madden’s work on EA Sports NFL games was the soundtrack of millions of fathers and sons.
It’s not the message, but the messenger.
RIP to a mulitgenerational icon
Yep.
Listening to Smiddy today and, honestly, I’m not overly enthused.
This wasn’t a specific incident where he got hurt in the 3rd game. It was something he had been dealing with but was able to play through without it effecting his game but then it got to the point where it started to effect the way he moved.
Also, it doesn’t sound like its completely gone away but its doing really good right now, not effecting the way he plays or moves, and its ready to try it in a game.
I’m not convinced this won’t continue to be a nagging thing.
In that regard, if the team ever falls below two goalies (i.e. one gets hurt), then can call up a goalie for $1MM or less that will have zero cap impact. This is for injuries or Covid.
So, if Smith gets hurt again, they can call up Skinner and he won’t hit the cap at all. That could be a real benefit later.
Thinking about it, what I’m not sure on is if it only applies to $1MM (or less) players or the $1MM portion of a contract. For example, if Mikko was the one in the AHL, would they be able to call him up and $1MM doesn’t count.
I’m going to try and confirm on this but I don’t think they would get relief in the Mikko call-up situation as the intent of the rule is for cheap players to be called up with no cap implication.
It doesn’t seem like this year they can really make a deep push (or course anything can happen!) so hopefully Kenny just keeps his powder mostly dry and rides it out
If they can make a run with what they mostly have great. Otherwise for me I’d rather see players get at bats and get the yips on the way out and be better prepared for next year
The LD so they know them better and know who they think they want and get more for any going, maybe Holloway gets a sniff, Skinner more games so they know if they can go him and Smith for next season, etc
The vitriol towards Holland for not “going all in” last year was high.
I can imagine the vitriol if he doesn’t “go all in” again – you know “every year you have McDavid/Leon, you have to go all in” – which, of course, is not logical.
If the Oilers are comfortably in a playoff position in February, I’m sure Holland will make a few moves but i can’t imagine any of the tier 1 prospects are moved (Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault). 1st rounder likely in play but not for a pure rental without any other pieces.
I hope he doesn’t factor in fan emotions!
I expect a few moves, but why even bother? The last couple have not helped at all and only spent bullets
Unless the goalie issue gets worse or a 3C falls cheap into his lap, dance with the ones that brung ya.
Or maybe a scoring forward but that is probably expensive and won’t have good odds of adding that much that’s missing really
I don’t imagine he factors in the emotions of the fans at all – I’m sure he knew very well how the Broberg pick would be perceived on draft day and how the Keith trade would be perceived, etc.
I just made that statement to provide a thought on what Oil Country would be like if he stands pat.
Why bother? Well, for me, firstly, I don’t agree that they can’t go far – the Oilers are better than a 7th/8th place team in the conference and those teams win a couple of rounds semi-often.
Also, I’m not for and “all-in” strategy where they make a couple big moves with major futures moved out but I think a couple of small-medium moves could make a big difference. One more legit top 6 forward could really solidify the top 9 and make it super dangerous, for example. I’m not saying trade a 1st and Savoie for Giroux but there could be some moves out there.
Why is it not Logical?
PITT did it every year. Got 3 Cups to show
Tampa too.
But only 2 cups…so far.
Pitts is the perfect comp for the Oilers
Sometimes great goalering, a defence you would say wasn’t good enough, the two best forwards in the league
Do the Oilers have the coaching to match making those rosters Stanley winners?
I wish I could say yes without hesitation
NEW: No cap room, small pool of prospect talent to trade, Edmonton once again needs help from the minors. EDM is no stranger to impact recalls, Kailer Yamamoto the most recent example. Is there another Yamamoto run on the way?
https://theathletic.com/3035267/2021/12/28/lowetide-the-five-most-effective-oilers-midseason-recalls-since-1979-80/
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
13m
Hearing some Canadian teams’ home games in early January will be postponed pending schedule shuffling. As expected, NHL wants to protect revenues as much as possible while there are crowd limits.
EDM/VAN not expected to lose any home games, for now. MON likely the most.
FOLLOW THE $$$$$$ …… errrr, I mean Science
It’s a business first always, at least while Gary is the ring master
I don’t think that should be limited to Gary B. being the commish – the Commish essentially works for the 32 owners and must have their aggregate interests in mind, primarily.
This is also in the best interest of the players. The revenue for home dates for each Canadian team was made public last week – its material. Not only to the players want to play with crowds (full crowds), they want that revenue so the owners can stop taking so much of their paycheques.
Money is always king
For me a better leader would be able to meet the interests of finance, but not have it front and centre
Like the NBA where great management has the players feeling free to be themselves, they do what is most right (like shutting down as they did) and being creative to engage fans and give them a top notch product that evolves to the good instead of running in place or one forward and two back
What do your comments on the NBA have to do with the matter at hand?
To me Bettman is so painfully obviously about the business which means ‘money’.
The way the league is run is so blatantly obviously trying to create US favouring outcomes as is shown by whomever posted recently the bias toward US teams in officiating when cross border teams play
A joke of officiating and safety departments, just yes men dusty relics
He’s done well for the owners but he has no art. At all. He’s a sales guy not a leader, and it’s laughable he came from the NBA, riding their successes he seems to not have had much to do with by his NHL work, other than the Cap and lockouts
I mentioned the NBA because it is hands down the best run league. It is modern, logical and progressive, and creates the best fan experience.
So says many sports analysts, it’s not just my opinion. The NFL is richer and baseball, but both are tone of deaf juggernauts heading for the rocks
I fail to see the outrage here.
Allan Walsh
@walsha
·
2m
Feels like the @NHL
is frantically sticking gum in each hole of a sinking canoe to keep it afloat. It’s obvious there’s no plan, just knee jerk reactions to the latest news. This cost players the Olympics while Gary is grinning like a Cheshire Cat over that one.
i wonder what the paying fan might think. Would you rather be told you can’t come to a game, or be allowed to mask up & attend in person without food or drink for 3 hours? Or attend a more normal game with a full-ish house at a later date?
Of course it’s about money, because larger crowds of happier people spend more of it. But there is surely some co-alignment of interests here.
Samorukov talking about being in Edmonton and getting back to some “Russian weather” so its been good.
I love this kid’s personality.
He’s pretty excited for tomorrow night and I’m excited for him.
Is there Russian weather in St. Louis?
Yes
The Oilers are 18-11 and their starting goalie has been out for two months and they have had each of Broberg, Niemelainen and, in a few hours, Samorukov make their NHL debuts (and, in some games, more than one of those raw rookies in the lineup).
This is fantastic!
Oilers had an expected five-on-five goal share of 50 percent and an actual goal share at five-on-five of 48.3 percent at the end of November.
https://theathletic.com/2983031/2021/11/29/lowetide-breaking-down-the-oilers-roster-after-a-november-of-many-wins-and-many-warning-signs/
Since then, Edmonton has a shot share of 50.6 and a goal share of 37.1 (13-22) at five-on-five.
Defense five-on-five goals for-against
Evan Bouchard 6-7
Darnell Nurse 4-6
Tyson Barrie 5-6
Cody Ceci 1-7
William Lagesson 2-2
Markus Niemelainen 1-3
Kris Russell 4-6
Duncan Keith 0-3
Philip Broberg 0-4
Slater Koekkoek 3-0
Everything is predictable save Koekkoek and Lagesson. Oilers bled because young defensemen will break your heart, and Keith-Ceci were playing too high on the depth chart.
Oilers also bled because the goaltending was subpar. The starting goalie save percentage in December (starting against Pittsburgh ):
941
882
875
846
900
903
800
947
824
That’s two good starts in nine games. Not nearly good enough; no defenseman will have good numbers when the goalies are playing like trash.
As Tippett mentioned yesterday, their 5 on 5 game was the best in the last 9 games (out of three 10-game segments) – including the SportLogiq data that we don’t see daily.
The issue in the last 9 game segment was special teams and save percentage dropping.
Thank you – That’s exactly how goalies should be evaluated. Average sv % for the year is way over valued.
Quality starts giving your team a chance to win each game is what matters. Saves in Nov should not be connected to saves in Feb
Why highlight Keith and Ceci as predictable when they (like the team) have 50% shot shares in December?
I glossed over it because it’s part of a future story. Ceci specifically. He had a fascinated December. both were predictable, though, deployment and injury had much to do with their month.
I’m not clear what you mean was glossed over. My reading is you laid blame for their awful goal shares as being expected rather than being terribly unlucky (PDOs of 853 and 833). Anyway, certainly don’t feel any need to explain more if it might affect a future story.
Is it?
Colorado Avalanche Man Games Lost to Injury/Covid:
Byram 14
Compher 12
Toews 11
MacKinnon 9
Murray 10
Nichushkin 9
Landeskog 5
Rantanen 3
Makar 4
Kadri 2
Burakovsky 2
Girard 2
J. Johnson 2
_________________
Kuemper 6
Francouz 26
The Avalanche are 17-8-2 .667 (tied for best in the WC) despite losing top 6 forwards and top 4 D as well as their starter and backup for significant numbers of games.
The entire Oiler’s top 6 has missed a total of 5 games while the Avalanche have lost more than 20 while also losing more than 30 games amongst their top 4D.
I guess you can suggest losing Mike Smith for a bunch of games was a big blow but it seems to me that Skinner at .916 in 10 GP was a reasonable replacement.
I don’t give a shit about the Avs.
They were supposed to win the President’s trophy and the Stanley Cup the last 4 years.
I posted a chart of which teams have suffered the most man games lost a few days ago.
The Avalanche led the way while the Oilers were about average and yet you are trumpeting about them hanging on to the last wild card spot.
Far from “fantastic”.
Again, l I don’t give a shit what the Avalanche have gone through.
General premise among Oilers fans prior to the season: “If Smith gets hurt for any length of time, they are screwed without a goalie acquisition” – well, hear we are, 18-11 with Smith missing months and no goalie acquisition. In that time, the team has played with 5 left D out, with 3 of their top 4 out at the same time, with less than a full lineup to start a game, etc.
Fantastic record given circumstances and I couldn’t care less about the Avs and other teams – some have battled through adversity, like the Oilers, some have cratered.
The Oilers are essentially tied with your beloved flames who have faced almost zero adversity. They didn’t have to play due to Covid, they didn’t battle through it.
I can’t think off the top of my head about a team that has cratered due to Oiler type adversity.
Tampa, for example has missed numerous games without their two best players and yet are cruising along.
If you believe the Oilers mediocre record is mainly because Smith has missed a bunch of games, I would suggest you wait and see how he performs.
In reality, as I said repeatedly, the Oilers hot start was due almost entirely to a PP that was running above 50% and was due to regress hard once again exposing their lack of depth and poor 5V5 play.
And here we are.
Love the comparisons to Tampa Bay, the two-time Stanley Cup Champion, and Colorado, perennial top contender for the President Trophy and Staley Cup (and, apparently, the game’s greatest GM of all time).
Oilers are in some high-end company……
Love how the Oilers have played through significant adversity, as stated, and have an 18-11 record – great stuff.
If you don’t compare yourself to the best, you might as well go home.
Participation ribbons are not a feature of professional hockey.
Is that why you comment here even though not an Oilers fan?
Keyboard drop
The Canucks arena has several participation ribbons hanging above. That is all.
I like hearing information on Oilers opponent’s that they have to go through. Keep it coming it just can’t be about fanboy’s information.
Relevant information on teams is great – of course, the “information” posted was not relevant at all to the the thread and the Oilers record after going through the adversity they have.
Posting about the flames and their record given their lack of adversity would have had just as much relevance – of course, that wouldn’t propagate an anti-Oilers narrative.
The Flames “good fortune” in having their entire team catch Covid at the same time has been discussed previously.
Not sure you yanking the goalposts a couple hundred of miles south contributes to the discussion much.
And how many man game lost did they have due to covid?
oh yeah 0
carry on
The point is the Oilers adversity is about league average although you try to portray it as as much, much more.
He’s a closet Oiler fan if you haven’t caught on to that yet, you never will.
As always you’re cherry picking! All the Oilers injuries to the D with as the coach saying playing NHL games with their AHL D men! Your hip replacement must be affecting your brain.
17 wins & 10 losses leads the way while 18 wins & 11 losses is about average.
Standings are tight up there near the top.
Thanks for your cherry-picked comparable. So helpful as always.
Who are the Avs top 4 D?
Obviously fluid because of the large number of games missed due to injury/covid.
Toews-Makar
Byram-Girard/E.Johnson
J.Johnson/ Murray
For what it’s worthy, here’s the Avs last 10 games, their save percentage and outcome.
L .882
W .925
W .935
W .925
W .897
W .844
L .733
W .950
L .805
W .929
As you can see, they did manage to win two games with poor goaltending. Not sure what it means, other than the fact you won’t win 7-5 in this league very often.
Thing is, the Avalanche are the highest scoring team in the league and got there without several of their highest scoring players for extended periods often at the same time.
One of the ‘bad goaltending wins’ (897) for the Avs was a 7-5 win, ha ha. The other ‘bad goaltending win’ (844) saw the opposition goalie put up an 821 in the loss. Goaltending is everything, seemingly.
Alternately, being able to outscore your defensive issues is a thing.
See the 80’s Oilers for reference.
The Avalanche have scored 4.22 GF/G
The next closest team is Minnesota at 3.63
Over 82 games, the Avalanche would score a pro-rated 346 goals while the Wild would score 297.
For interest sake, the Oilers are scoring at 3.42 GF/G which pro-rates to 288 goals.
Did I mention that the Avalanche have done this while missing many of their top offensive players for multiple games?
Their second line centre, Nazem Kadri, despite missing 3 games, is on pace for 130 points.
Oh my.
None of those numbers are sustainable and you know it. Pro-rating to make your point seem more profound is kind of lame, you must admit. Avalanche team shooting percentage is an astronomical 12.5% right now. That leads the league by a wide margin. Have you heard of regression HH? It’s going to make an appearance in Denver sometime in the New Year. Kadri, for example, has never exceeded 61 points in a season. Do you honestly think I buy this 130 point shit that you’re peddling? Once the PDO pony bucks Kadri off, his pace will tail off, predictably.
I will need to take a closer look at the cap situation but this will take some cap gymnastics:
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
37s
Mike Smith declares himself available for tomorrow’s game at STL. He’ll have to be activated off LTIR.
———————-
I presume he’ll start tomorrow – no reason not to start him. Rest of the league will be “rusty” as well so its good timing. He started last year super hot with a short training camp and no exhibition and then on IR for the first 3 weeks or so.
P.S. Skinner is not eligible for the taxi squad – have to be waiver eligible.
Doesn’t Skinner have a month to report to BAK after being assigned?
Nope – once assigned, the team has to take prompt steps to get him on the plane.
I think you are thinking about assignment after clearing waivers. If a player clears waivers, he can be assigned any time in the next 30 days without having to re-clear.
That’s the one. Thank you.
Tippett isn’t doing Yamamoto any favours at the moment by continuing to jam him into the top six.
I think Yamamoto can be a 3rd line difference maker and the Oilers have a young transporter in McLeod to play centre with him. He is not touching the puck enough in the top six. He is thinking about whether he should be shooting or passing, because he knows he is the 3rd wheel.
Yamamoto would be the top dog on the third line with McLeod. Putting Benson on LW (a passer) would make Yamamoto the undisputed shooter on the line. And he would be in the top decile in hockey sense in the league for 3rd liners.
Yamamoto can be a top decile 3rd liner who can play up the roster in a pinch. He can PK, and 2nd PP.
It would be like having a defensively aware Kessel-lite on the Oilers 3rd line, where Kessel almost won a Conn Smythe playing 3rd line for the first of the back to back Cups.
Recall, Yamamoto was scheduled to play on the 3rd line (with Benson) a few weeks back just prior to all the illness and injuries.
Losing guys like Nuge, Hyman, Puljujarvi, etc. have made it tougher to move him down the lineup in recent weeks.
If Jesse was in the lineup tomorrow, I think that Foegele would remain in the top 6 and Kailer would be on the 3rd line but that’s not an option quite yet.
Not entirely certain that Yamamoto is even thinking about shooting….
After blasting a one-timer that led directly to a rebound goal, he may be…..
Could be. But the numbers say 30 shots total in 29 games; that’s a paltry number for any winger, never mind a guy who only plays with Leon Draisaitl. The sample size isn’t exactly small anymore.
Unrelated to the current Oilers but it looks like JJ Khaira is getting ready to return. Maybe the Hawks next game but, if not, getting close.
Great to hear that JJ is healthy!
I worry about him.
Yes. “Healthy”.
As anticipated, looks like Keith will be ready to go which is great news.
A bit surprising but it looks like Sammy will be in the lineup over Broberg. Surprising (at least to me) but I like it as it will give the org (and us) a look at Sammy. How exciting.
Per Nugent-Bowman:
Oilers D pairs at practice:
Keith-Ceci
Koekkoek-Barrie
Samorukov-Bouchard
Broberg
According to Scott Wheeler, The Bourg will be out for tonight’s match vs. Austria.
(Austria? G’day mate! Put another shrimp on the barby!)
Ya, disappointing but definitely not surprising given the info over the last couple of days.
I am a big fan of Samorukov! My hope is that the organization doesn’t move him when his value is low in an effort to improve for the present. We don’t have enough hard to play against players with talent. This particularly true on D. Nurse has the ability but can’t afford to be that kind of player without hurting the team. Samorukov has the degree of mean that walks the line with offensive and defensive tools. To lose him for Pennie’s on the dollar would be a shame.
The US forfeits the game today against Switzerland due to covid
Per Stauff:
Dylan Holloway (wrist) and Kris Russell (UBI) are on the ice early today at Clare Drake Arena.
Holloway has been skating for awhile. He is starting to shoot more.
Could see him in Bakersfield mid-to-late January or early February.
Important player long term for the Oilers
—————-
Lets not get too excited about Holloway. Just last week Holland said best case scenario is playing games for the Condors in early Feb but very unlikely we see him in Edmonton until Sept.
The big thing for me is he keeps progressing – shooting now. Hopefully this means no long term impact from the injury
Multiple positive tests for the US WJHC team according to the Athletic.
Here is hoping the guys are able to get through practice and on the flight to St. Louis tomorrow without losing anyone.
I’m ready for some Oilers’ hockey – even if the likes of Nurse and Puljujarvi aren’t available.
Keith and Smith likely – lets do this!
Practice has started and I don’t see any initial reports of absences.
Sure miss Craig Simpson the man was a fuking warrior you would never guess that with his ivory league looks. Simpson parked his ass in front of the net took a beating but never bailed. Then came Ryan Smyth we sure were lucky to have another super talented forward that was tough and smooth. Hyman and Jesse are both trying this tactic at times but I think Patty Maroon is still missed to this day.
Im really looking forward to Mike Smith’s return. If he plays well it would tell us so much about the Oilers needs.
If Mike plays well and brings his confidence to the room and suddenly the defense looks better and the bottom six looks better then we can gauge just how important it is to have that goalie in place.
The tough choice then is do they ride injury prone Smith and pass on acquiring another goalie? All the marbles would be riding on Mike Smith’s health.
Smith making the defenders look better isn’t just about confidence, in my opinion.
His ability, not only to make a pass, but to stop pucks being dumped and rimmed, really helps out the D. It allows the D to release and get the puck with some time and space (and not get hit), etc.
This could/should help out the young D.
Coaches don’t want a Fly guy…
I ran out of time this morning, but I started with a look back at the Oilers last 10 years of OTF/60 leaders (min 100 min played at 5v5). I had intended to run Calgary’s list next, but work has impeded me.
Oilers OTF/60 >100 min annual leaders
*Current year: 2021-2: Tyler Benson (56.1)
2020-1: Alex Chiasson (55.4)
2019-20: Gaetan Haas (53.7) ***last NHL season
2018-19: Ryan Spooner (54.2) ***last NHL season
2017-18: Iiro Pakarinen (50.8) ***last NHL season
2016-17: Anton Lander (56.5) ***last NHL season
2015-16: Luke Gazdic (63.5) ***second last NHL season, played in minors
2014-15: Leon Draisaitl (59.6). ***was sent down to WHL
2013-14: Luc Gazdic (59.3) ***played in minors this year
2012-13: Ben Eager 56.42 ***second last season in NHL. played in minors, played 7 games the following year
2011-12: Darcy Hordichuk 56.33 ***second last NHL season. played 4 games in NHL next season
Draisaitl was the only rookie on this list. It was the year he didn’t think he could play in this league from his quote.
Players on this list are certainly outside of their coach’s circle of trust that they have to shelter the most against good competition.
From this illustrious list of vets, only one player saw NHL ice for the next two consecutive seasons, Luke Gazdic.
Four of the ten played out their last year in the NHL. We can call it 6/10 if we don’t count the four games Hordichuk saw in his last year or the 7 that Ben Eager played.
Another 3/10 were in their second last NHL season (Chiasson might be added to that list).
8/10 either played their last NHL or were sent down to another league (AHL or WHL) during the year they led the OTF/60.
This is the list Derek Ryan was on as his team’s leader in OTF starts/60 during the last season he played for Calgary. (58.3 OTF/60).
This is the player Holland signed for two years to play tough d zone minutes for the Oilers.
Thanks for pulling this info Ryan. Very eye-opening.
Was it really this easy to identify that D. Ryan may not have been the best target? I wonder what some counter arguments might have been when pro scouts were evaluating him.
Okay, I managed to quickly collect the data for Calgary
Calgary OTF/60 >100 min annual leaders
*This current season: 2021-2: Dillon Dube (56.4)
2020-1: Derek Ryan (58.3)
2019-20: Zac Rinaldo (54.1) **second last NHL season. played 4 games the next year
2018-19: Garnet Hathawway (50.3) **Still playing in the NHL 3 more season and counting. changed teams
2017-18: Curtis Lazar (48.8) *Still in NHL. was under 25
2016-17: Garnet Hathaway (54.4) *Still in NHL
2015-16: Brandon Bollig (64.4) ***last NHL season
2014-15: Brandon Bollig (64.1). **second last season in NHL
2013-14: Brian McGrattan (64.9) **second last season in NHL. played 8 games the next year
2012-13: Steve Begin (62.8) ***last season in NHL
2011-12: Krys Kolans (51) ***last season in NHL
For 3/10 players, it was their last season in NHL. You could call this 5/10 if you don’t count the 4 games Rinaldo played in his last year or the 8 that McGrattan did.
For 6/10 players, it was either their last or their second last season. That number could climb to 7/10 with Ryan.
Only Brandon Bollig in 14-15 and Garnet Hathaway in 16-17 played more than 10 games for Calgary the following season.
Lazar played one game for Calgary in 218-19 before being traded
This is great stuff, Ryan, very fascinating. Awesome post.
Here’s my write up on Shift Starts when Puckiq launched them:
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/05/shift-starts-another-layer-of.html
Note: puckiq isn’t loading data right now, not sure why, we’re looking into it.
We found that OTF shifts had much better results baked into them for Dmen than forwards.
This is because Dmen tend to change OTF when the puck is leaving the Dzone, whereas forwards will change on the back check more if their teams has numbers in front of the puck already.
Average Dmen OTF CF% is 51%, Average Forward OTF CF% is 49.3
Where the advantage for the coach comes with forwards and OTF shifts is that a coach can get his lesser lines out against the other team’s better lines when they are on the back half of their shifts (and often the puck is headed to the ozone when coaches do this with bottom tier lines)
Also,
The big disadvantage for both Forwards and Dmen is of course, Dzone starts and I looked at Ryan the other day (when the site actually worked) and he was getting a much higher % of Dzone starts as an Oiler than he did for CGY.
He also had much better wingers in Calgary.
He’s also in a PDO well, but seems to be coming out of it.
Puckiq is back up btw
Thanks, I’ll take a look.
I think there’s some effect to the magnitude of the OTF starts, but unfortunately I lack the ability to put together a database to dig in deeper.
Ordering by OTF starts with Calgary and Edmonton
2013-14: Brian McGrattan (64.9) **second last season in NHL. played 8 games the next year
2015-16: Brandon Bollig (64.4) ***last NHL season
2014-15: Brandon Bollig (64.1). **second last season in NHL
2015-16: Luke Gazdic (63.5) **second last NHL season, played in minors
2012-13: Steve Begin (62.8) ***last season in NHL
2014-15: Leon Draisaitl (59.6). ***was sent down to WHL
2013-14: Luc Gazdic (59.3) **played in minors this year
2020-1: Derek Ryan (58.3)
2016-17: Anton Lander (56.5) ***last NHL season
2012-13: Ben Eager 56.42 **second last season in NHL. played in minors, played 7 games the following year
2011-12: Darcy Hordichuk 56.33 **second last NHL season. played 4 games in NHL next season
2020-1: Alex Chiasson (55.4) *still in NHL
2016-17: Garnet Hathaway (54.4) *Still in NHL
2018-19: Ryan Spooner (54.2) ***last NHL season
2019-20: Zac Rinaldo (54.1) **second last NHL season. played 4 games the next year
2019-20: Gaetan Haas (53.7) ***last NHL season
2011-12: Krys Kolans (51) ***last season in NHL
2017-18: Iiro Pakarinen (50.8) ***last NHL season
2018-19: Garnet Hathawway (50.3) *Still playing in the NHL 3 more season and counting. changed teams
2017-18: Curtis Lazar (48.8) *Still in NHL. was under 25
First 10: 48-56.3: 3/10 still played in NHL for more than two seasons
Second 10: 56.3- 64.9: 0/10 players that didn’t retired in the next two seasons or get sent down to the minors.
Dzone and Nzone starts are the big negatives for forwards with Ozone being the cherry starts.
Average 4th line forward CF%:
Dzone 34.0%
Nzone 45.5%
Ozone 61.1%
OTF 46.8% (previous post of 49.3% was “all forwards”, this is just “average 4th liner)
Here’s Ryan’s Shift start percentages of D, N and Ozone starts last 4 seasons:
Dzone
21/22 12.2%
20/21 9.0%
19/20 14.8%
18/19 15.1%
Looks like that Sutter dialed those way back and Tippett dialed them up a bit
Nzone
21/22 19.9%
20/21 12.1%
19/20 13.9%
18/19 16.1%
Big jump here too for a shift with negative results baked in.
Ozone
21/22 7.7%
20/21 10.5%
19/20 13.2%
18/19 13.3%
Big drop in the shift starts with best results baked in.
OTF
21/22 60.2%
20/21 68.4%
19/20 58%
18/19 55.5%
A drop here, but for a shift with slightly better results than Nzone shifts baked in.
On the whole the drop in Ozone and increase in Dzone are probably playing the biggest part in the drop in xGF% as far as Shift Starts go.
The biggest issues is QoT and Ryan’s aging curve imo.
Ryan’s DFF% for OTF shifts is 47.8% while his GF% is 21.4% (3-11). There’s a whole lot of PDO in his GF% right now.
IMO this is far too much focus on a single metric from a single year, when nearly every other measure for Ryan points to him still being a quality NHL player in Calgary 20-21.
Beyond that, I think using 100 minutes is far too low a bar since many of the players included aren’t even NHL regulars.
Also, OTF starts are something certain coaches use, so the ‘top’ players tend to cluster on certain teams. So lots of OTF starts tells you something about the player, but also as much about the coach.
So using your method with a couple of modifications,
A) looking back a few years (2017-18) to give the players some track (4 seasons since)
B) also using >500 minutes to include the most used 367 forwards
.. here are the top 30 forwards in the league by OTF starts/60:
Jordan Nolan -BUF- part time player the next season (17-18 was career high in TOI)
Michael Haley -FLA- played parts of 3 more seasons (17-18 was his only full season)
Brett Ritchie -DAL- played all 4 seasons since
Joakin Nordstrom -CAR- played 3 seasons after
Remi Elie -DAL- part time player the next season (17-18 his only full season)
Adrian Kempe -LA- played all 4 seasons since (this was his first full year)
Zac Rinaldo -ARI- played parts of 3 more seasons
Joel Ward -SJ- last season
Derek MacKenzie -FLA- last full season
Scottie Upshall -STL- his last season
Antoine Roussel -DAL- played all 4 seasons since
Paul Carey -NYR- his only full season
Christian Fischer -ARI- played all 4 seasons (this was his first full year)
Jori Lehtera -PHI- part time player the next season
Jake Virtanen -VAN- played 3 seasons after (out of league for non-hockey reasons)
Jannik Hansen -SJ- his last season
Evan Rodrigues -BUF- played all 4 seasons since
Devin Shore -DAL- played all 4 seasons since
Martin Frk -DET- played parts of 3 more seasons (17-18 was his only full season)
Nail Yakupov -COL- his last season
Joonas Donskoi -SJ- played all 4 seasons since
Kevin Labanc -SJ- played all 4 seasons since
Melker Karlsson -SJ- played 2 more seasons
Scott Laughton -PHI- played all 4 seasons since
Torrey Mitchell -LA,MTL- his last season
Jason Spezza -DAL- played all 4 seasons since
Ryan Carpenter -VGK,SJ- played all 4 seasons since
Chris Tierney -SJ- played all 4 seasons since
Tomas Nosek -VGK- played all 4 seasons since
Ryan Reaves -PITT,VGK- played all 4 seasons since
What can we see from this group of players (the top 30 forwards in OTF starts from 17-18)?
25 of the top 30 players in the league in OTF starts/60 came from 8 teams (and 14 of them from just 3 teams), so the distribution of these players isn’t even, and isn’t based only on merit.
14 of the 30 players played all 4 subsequent seasons in the NHL, so lots of OTF starts isn’t a death nell for a player who’s an NHL regular. Some others (Karlsson, Nordstrom, Virtanen) could probably still be in the league if they wanted to be or if other factors hadn’t affected their careers.
9 of the 30 were on their way out of the league (or were never established in the league) during their high OTF season. This raises the question of what the attrition rate for the league is generally (how many of the 367 players in this sample were in the league 1, 2, 3, 4 years later?).
I think there’s no question high OTF starts do identify players who are being sheltered by their coaches, though many coaches do not utilize their players in this way (just like not all coaches use zone starts, line matching, etc to the same degree).
And I agree it is identifying some players who are on their way out of the league, but my take from the above is that being tagged by high OTF starts doesn’t really predict anything for the majority of players.
That using 500 minute cutoff of 5v5 toi will lower the attrition rate is not a surprise.
I’d imagine that a forward earning 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time in a season has a pretty good chance of playing in the NHL the next year.
Derek Ryan’s last season in Calgary wouldn’t even make that cutoff though it was a shortened season due to Covid.
There’s certainly something at the intersection of TOI and OTF starts/60 that it’s interesting.
Absolutely, some teams have a very narrow distribution for OTF starts. Whether that’s due to coaching preferences or just having a more balanced roster, I’m note sure. For teams that have a flat range of OTF starts/60, I’m not sure you can reach much of a conclusion looking at their players.
There’s a lot of factors to account for with age being probably one of the more important ones..
How many who were say over 25 actually played again for the same team the following season?
Yes, teams seem to have really wide ranges of OTF starts or those that are quite narrow.
That depends on what TOI cutoff you’re using. There’s an intersection in impact between low TOI and high OTF starts.
If you use 100 min TOI cutoff and high OTF starts, you’ll capture way more players headed out of the league.
Even with a 300 minute cutoff, I’d imagine you’ll find more players.
You’re adding in a form of survivorship bias by increasing the cuffoff to 500 minutes.
Yes, absolutely. And I think that’s completely reasonable and appropriate when trying to predict what would happen in Ryan’s next season.
We’re not (I’m not) trying to identify tweeners who can’t stick in the league long term. We’re trying to understand what happens to established NHL players who have a season with lots of OTF starts.
I used 500 minutes by the way because that’s the cutoff in a normal season for ‘NHL regular’ forwards. 12 forwards x 31 (now 32 teams) = 372. 500 minutes in 17-18 gave 367 forwards as I mentioned.
Ryan did miss the 500 minute cutoff in 20-21 (he played 410 5v5 minutes in 43 games) but it was due to the short season + some games missed due to injury. If the season weren’t shortened (even ignoring injury) he was on pace for 700+ minutes as he’d played every other year of his career.
This is not a criticism at all, but KY should be on the third line. This is by no means a defeat for the player. If we want a good third line , try bringing in better top 6 options and then move him down. Nuge at C and KY on RW would give the foundation of a competent third line that gets favourable matchups. They aren’t really producing 5 on 5 anyways. Use the “pairs, not lines” model that Detroit employed under Holland. It’s at least time to entertain the thought of thinking outside the box a bit in order to have some 5 on 5, and playoff success.
You can see that coming together long term. I feel like Bourgault is very similar to Eberle and can land top six right wing. Holloway also taking a top six spot. (I dont see Lavoie as a solution, never did)
Question is, will Holland wait till they arrive or will he deal them for a veteran today? I would not mind an upgrade today but who they would choose and what they would pay gives me the willy’s.
At least the rest of the NHL Gm’s have (somewhat) set the market for trading away a 1st round draft pick.
A player under team control or under contract for the remainder of the season & beyond.
Wasn’t that long ago that this was the price for a pure rental on an expiring contract.
Of course I’m not speaking in absolutes, just generally speaking.
Kenny remembers when rentals cost a 1st…….
Kenny goes way back, lol. When was the last time he traded a 1st for a rental though?
It’s remarkable, I think the last time was actually in 2004 for Robert Lang (also 2003 for Mathieu Schneider). I’m not certain these were even rentals since Capfriendly doesn’t have contract deals from 20 years ago and both players remained with the Wings past the season they were acquired.
Since 2004 Holland acquired Todd Bertuzzi (2007), Brad Stuart (2008) and David Legend (2014) WITHOUT spending a 1st (all included a 2nd + other asset(s)).
He did trade a 1st for Kyle Quincey in 2012, but Quincey was an RFA at the end of that season and remained with the Wings for another 4 seasons after the deal.
Both Lang and Schneider were under contract for several more years though – not rentals at all. Schneider was under contract until July 2005 while Lang was under contract until July 2007.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/2004/02/28/capitals-deal-lang-to-the-red-wings/b42ed8c2-9752-408a-b7c9-41368609a64e/
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/mathieu-schneider
I have looked back about 20 years and still haven’t found an instance of Holland trading a 1st for a rental.
Curious if someone can pinpoint the last time that happened.
Thanks, I figured Lang/Schneider were rentals. Kind of hilarious that Holland has never/almost never traded a 1st for a rental, I had no idea.
Kenny has also been very express, since the day he was hired as GM of the OIlers, that he’s not willing to trade a 1st rounder for a rental – and intimated the same earlier this season.
We all do. It’s heartening that Holland hasn’t paid more than a 4th for a rental since he joined the Oilers.
Andreas Athanasiou says hi
He wasn’t a rental until Covid hit though.
Montreal would love Lavoie in their system. Just saying.
Nice writeup LT.
Care to hazard a guess about how many of your 13 listed players (excluding Puljujarvi and Yamamoto) end up being 5 year solutions for the Oilers?
My first guess, trying to be reasonable ended with 6 of the 13, but I guess that’s still too high for reasonable.
Broberg, McLeod, Holloway, Bourgault are the safest bets imo. I can’t really name the most promising among Bourgault, Savoie and Petrov, but choose Bourgault due to draft pedigree.
Thanks, and yeah that’s definitely fair. 4/13 is a safe number for sure.
We can hope for a couple more of Samorukov/Savoie/Petrov but clearly not all will progress as hoped. It’s helpful to remember all of the ‘can’t miss’ prospects from the past that did miss in the end.