Chemistry for NHL lines is a funny thing. Consider this item from The Hockey News in January of 1972: “A series of injuries and slumps forced (Chicago Blackhawks coach) Billy Reay to insert Pit Martin between left wing Bobby Hull and right winger Chico Maki on the evening of December 3 in Oakland for a game against the California Golden Seals.”
The article continued: “After a 2-1 loss that night, the Chicagoans embarked on a real tear, as did the Hull-Martin-Maki threesome. In 12 games thereafter, the line collected a startling 62 points. Of the 25 goals arranged by the trio, Hull bagged 14.”
Hull-Maki were a pairing going back several years, and had auditioned centers Phil Esposito and Fred Stanfield before those two men were dispatched to the Boston Bruins in a deal that brought Martin to the Windy City.
Why did Hull-Martin-Maki work?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- New DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects have a long history of world juniors excellence
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
I’ve been thinking about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and chemistry. It seems to me that most agree that Connor McDavid and Jesse Puljujarvi are a good duo and Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto has been magic for some time. Zach Hyman has joined the band and perhaps he can slide in there somewhere. What about Nuge? Here are his numbers, five-on-five, with Edmonton’s centers and wingers.
NUGE WITH, LAST THREE YEARS
Nuge performs well in goal percentage and expected goals percentage with most everyone, but the only line he has scored handsomely for in the last three years is Draisaitl-Yamamoto. I don’t have the answer, maybe Nuge is too defensive on the 97 line (last forward in, first forward out, Dave Keon talked about that years ago) but this is three years and it’s really really real.
Nuge with Connor McDavid, over three seasons and 467 minutes, is not delivering enough offensively to stay on the line. Let’s look at who is contributing while playing with Nuge.
WITH NUGE, LAST THREE YEARS
Good grief. I don’t understand. Yamamoto and Draisaitl perform well with Nuge, and as above, he performs well with them. Now, we see Jesse Puljujarvi (1.74) and Connor McDavid (2.44) score well with 93, even though he posts half the offense as McDavid while playing with McDavid. Even the Kassian minutes I’m sure are with McDavid as the center.
What the hell, people? Four men who score well with Nuge, Nuge scores well with only two. I’m about to chop down a tree! What the hell is going on out here?
- Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
- Nuge-Leon-Yamamoto
You don’t like it, and haters gonna hate, hate, hate, but this appears to be optimal lines at this time. Hey, if you have any bright ideas bring them on. Nuge always did well with Hall and or Eberle, and I do not understand why the McDavid numbers are so low. Weird. Real weird.
If I had to guess, the Draisaitl-Yamamoto line is more predictable and there is more structure, less one-off searing guitar riff sorties that could bring glory or certain death in a ditch. It’s a guess, though. I’d love to have a camera focused on Nuge to see if he cheats for defense on that 97 line. Other than that, maybe the 29-56 hot streak is pumping up the offensive numbers for a wonderful power-play performer who never could push the river at five-on-five.
Nuge is playing with high-end skill and that appears to be camouflaging the aging process. Consider these numbers from the past two seasons:
Jordan Eberle is aging like fine wine, ladies and germs. Admiral Hallsie has been flagging a little in the goals column and Nuge is Chico bleeding Maki.
XAVIER AND LUCA
Luca Munzenberger scored for Germany, and took a penalty. He had three shots, played 22:47 and was minus 2. He led his team in minutes and looked good despite his team facing a strong Finnish side.
Xavier Bourgault took what was either a head or shoulder hit and we’ll find out soon if it’s bad, good or indifferent. Bourgault had two shots, a penalty and played 11:20 before the injury. I liked his game, he can contest plays defensively, make great passes and find some daylight to get a shot off in a good situation. Mason McTavish is going to rule so hard in this tournament, but Edmonton’s forward is a good one.
The Land of Chocolate prevails 2-1 in OT.
Well-deserved German player of the game for the goalie Bugl.
Although they won, they are not all smiles and sunshine.
A Question for the Experts:
How does McDavid/Draisaitl measure compared to
Jean Beliveau and any Montreal centre you like from that era. My pick is Henri Richard, but my history only goes so far back.
Well McDavid is already the best of the Bunch.
Beliveau prob 2nd best.
DRAI
Then H Richard
Winning Combo. McD / Drai.
Very uncomfortable with any comparisons of McDavid and Beliveau since they were such different players.
Beliveau was a big, slick, big brain centre.
If anything, McDavid reminds me of Pavel Bure who is admittedly not a centre.
Munzenberger gets an apple on the icebreaker as Germany opens the scoring in period 2.
I’m liking his game. Stands up at the blueline, good skater, passes well. Oilers have been good at identifying defensemen over the last decade or so, maybe he’s another.
Read some solid quotes by him after Germany’s first game.
While he’s getting solid ice time at Vermont, he’s still a “young player” on the team and, here, in this tournament, with his age-group, he’s given more responsibility and offensive opportunities (paraphrasing).
Oh, i should credit Liam Horrobin (ON) for the quotes:
https://oilersnation.com/2021/12/27/luca-munzenberger-shines-in-german-loss/
Nice.
It’s going be difficult to judge how well he is playing because the Vermont team is wretchedly bad with only 2 wins in 10 games.
U.Mass Lowell, U. Mass Amherst and Northeastern are running away with Hockey East with 8-7-7 wins respectively.
By the way, Aidan McDough is the goal scoring leader with 13 goals.
Aidan McDonough (correct spelling) is 22 and under a PPG in the NCAA.
To compare, Cooper Marody was over a PPG at 21 and over a PPG in the AHL at 22.
Marody scored 16 goals in 40 games at Michigan.
McDonough should pass that mark in week or two.
That’s nice – 4 assists….. 4.
Its noted, at McDonough’s age, Marody was over a PPG in the AHL, not under a PPG in college.
Feel free to spin.
I look forward to your post a year from now:
“I have never talked about Aidan McDonough before in my life.”
Calm feet.
Nice cross-ice transition pass through the neutral zone by Munzenburger to set up the opening goal by Germany.
Luca Munzenburger’s quest for an Olympic placement continues at 5 mountain!
While Carolina has 10 players in the WJHC, the LAK prospects (as if they need more) are lighting it up.
FIN: Samuel Helenius (2nd round 2021) C 6’6″ 205 2GP 3G 1A 4 P
SWE: Helge Grans (2nd round 2020) D 6’2″ 195 1GP 1GP 0G 2A 2P
SVK: Martin Chromiak (7th round 2020) LW 5’10” 195 1GP 2G 0A 2P
Also playing:
RUS: Kirill Kirsanov (3rd round 2021
USA: Brock Faber (2nd round 2020)
FIN: Kasper Simontaival (3rd round 2020)
Considering RHD Brandt Clarke should have been chosen (25P in 21GP with Barrie Colts)
and that Quinton Byfield is young enough to play, that’s pretty impressive.
A great profile of “Killer Chromiak” here:
https://theathletic.com/3036791/2021/12/27/kings-prospect-martin-chromiak-is-here-to-stay-and-hes-leading-slovakias-next-generation-hes-a-killer/
Per Nugent-Bowman – coach Brad Wiseman in Covid-protocol.
Really good media avail with Tip today post-practice.
Talked about doing a fairly big “deep dive” in to the 5 on 5 play and numbers and was fairly clear that it wasn’t just “his scoring chance numbers” and the regular stuff but also lots of SportLogiq numbers (which I really really like as they go in to alot of zone exit and zone entry stuff and slot shot/pass stuff, etc.).
Noted that the team’s best 5 on 5 segment was the last 9 games (they’ve played 29) even though they lost more in that time.
Drop was save percentage and special teams but 5 on 5 is getting better in various numbers/areas.
Was asked about Sammy and was pretty clear that “he’s raw”, similar to Broberg and what he needs is to keep playing and gain experience.
I inferred that Tip really hopes Keith can go on Wed night and he doesn’t want to play both of Sammy and Broberg (in particular without Nurse and Keith)……
Score effects will be driving some of those recent results, just as they were driving sine early results the other direction.
Oilers have trailed 2-0 in 6 of the last 7 games.
There’s also the effects of players missing during that run to take into account.
Maybe you call that a wash?
Valid point and now I wonder the impact of score effects on some of the “newer public stats” as they relate to zone exits/entires, slot passes/shots, rush related numbers, etc. that SportLogiq tracks.
In other words its a negative outcome probability if they go down 0-2 in games.
This is something I think the NHL will entertain. Without support from the feds re: the border, going to not testing asymptomatic won’t work, however, shortening the 10-days could.
Per Woj:
Vaccinated NBA players and coaches can now clear quarantine after six days if Covid-testing data shows they’re no longer at risk to be infectious, according to a memo distributed to teams Monday and obtained by ESPN
Per Nugent-Bowman:
Updates from Oilers practice today:
– All signs point toward Mike Smith travelling with the team to St. Louis tomorrow. We’ll find out for sure after practice.
– Duncan Keith is expected to participate in practice tomorrow. If all goes well, he could play Wednesday at STL.
Update at apx 1:45
Scott Wheeler
@scottcwheeler
·
2m
No update from Team Canada head coach Dave Cameron on Oilers prsopect Xavier Bourgault, who took a high hit last night and is expected to miss some time.
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
2m
Tippett says Keith could practice tomorrow if all goes well and that Smith, after two good practices, remains an option for the road trip.
This break is the best thing imaginable for the Oilers. Rest and get the team prepared for the real season that usually begins in February.
Well, turns out when signing 28-29 YO players with average offence long term with trade protection, it can turn bad real quick! Not like the Oilers have ever done that to learn from or anything.
I’ve always liked Nuggie, I appreciate his personality while wading through neck deep sewer waste for years.
So now they have two complimentary wingers basically suited to top 6 that are undersized, no first step, not actually aggressive, average or worse finishing, can only contribute in ideal situations, etc
That is some fine strategic think work. Can’t wait till they re-up small fry for 8 and a NMC. They can always trade Drai to get a centre that can get them both going at the same time.
Yama is good peeps, so is Nuggie, and that’s what the Oilers need. A lot of. Hockey is only a game.
Nothing about signing Nuge has been bad imo, nor does it suggest that they’re signing Yams for 8 years with. NMC.
Nuge plays wing when the super bros are separated and 2C when they’re not. Much more there then a complimentary winger.
He’s also a fantastic special teams player. And yes, those two games states still matter..
3rd line EV 1st pp unit player
I think Nuge can be a top 6 5 on 5 player – for 30 games in 2020 he was top 3 in the NHL. Of course, can’t discount the results since then, last season and this, where he simply has not produced at a top 6 level, despite quality of linemates.
Nuge was a 1.73 5v5/60 player through the first 9 years of his career (2nd line rate), most of it without McDavid and Draisaitl. He’s been a 1.23 P/60 player in the 80 games since, mostly with McDavid/Draisaitl.
He hasn’t even turned 29 yet, so hopefully it isn’t aging decline. I wonder if he has changed his game towards deferring to and playing D for his MVP linemates.
I’m still expecting/hoping for a scoring rebound. Perhaps having his own line as 3C would actually help Nuge’s game.
Pretty sure we are better with Nuge then without. And him not signing is no guarantee that we sign someone else as good or better. My gut says we probably would end up with someone worse for equal money.
Not everyone wants to come here, so we sign the guys that do.
I would love to see a trade of Yamomoto for Eberle!Need to throw in Kassian,or one of the young LDs and or draft picks.Would love to Ebs back with Nuge.What a third line,with Fogele.
Would you trade the #1 points scorer on your team for the #11 scorer on another team, and why?
Because you’re getting a Sammy with the Yammy.
If we get the song “Tammy” in return I’m all in.
Eberle can be dismissed as a declining asset compared to Yamamoto’s hometown status.
Yamamoto has years ahead of him for the Kraken. or something.
While this is in dream land, how about Boston retains something cap wise in a Hall trade for an Oilers prospect?
Hyman McDavid Puljujarvi
Hall Draisaitl Eberle
Good enough?
Hall has been worse than Nuge at 5 on 5, on the PP and on the PK (where Hall doesn’t play).
Didn’t LT just write that Nuge has aged worse then hall and eberle?
Hall has less points and less points/60 at 5 on 5.
Hall has less points on the PP.
Hall doesn’t PK (Nuge does).
Hall never plays center.
LT’s numbers (that 90s fan is talking about) are from 2 seasons, yours are presumably from this season only.
So it’s The Bourg’s head that’s the concern after he hit he took last night:
https://www.tsn.ca/xavier-bourgault-team-canada-world-juniors-1.1739163
I saw the “hit” as a filthy elbow & will be disappointed if the powers that be don’t take disciplinary action against the cheap shot artist who delivered it.
Per McKenzie:
Xavier Bourgault’s status with Team https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f1e8-1f1e6.svg may be in question after taking hard hit to head in third period vs. CZE yesterday. No official word yet on concussion/no concussion but I’d be surprised if he practices today and/or plays tomorrow vs. AUT. We may know more post https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f1e8-1f1e6.svg practice
Finally got around to listening to Jimmy Playfair on Spittin Chicklets from last week.
I know it was posted and summarized by a few a couple of days ago but, my goodness, what a listen. Playfair is a great interview. Some real I’m depth structure stuff but also some great stories and intel on people and players, etc.
I highly encourage a listen.
It was pretty awesome
I read, I think from Stauffer that Yamo could be going to the Kraken for a certain player. Right away I thought about Eberle coming back to the Oil. Would be pretty cool, Make sense for both sides though salary would have to be moved too.
We could have 3 fwd pairings of
McD JP
Draisaitl Hyman
RNH Eberle
probably won’t happen, but one can dream I guess
I’m with you, seems obvious. Give the Kraks a young left D so they can ship Gio to a playoff team, somebody else to even out the money a wee bit. Put Ryan on the wing with nuge and ebs, Macleod as 4C, dink around with the remaining wingers as usual.
With the 6 game swoon, its like fans opine for a return to the good old days of Hall+Eberle+RNH+ I dont recall but the defence was really good on the powerplay.
LT,
I think a breakdown of rush goals vs possession goals might inform your Nuge project. Not sure if there’s a site providing that, but if not, GMoney’s fancy data scraper probably could as it should be in the NHL data.
I think SportLogiq would have this – perhaps reach out to Gregor as he likes to do pieces based off the SportLogiq data.
If you trust the chemistry between McDavid and McLovin, then run them with Jesse. And as someone else posted run Yamamoto down in bottom 6 .
And Sceviour has earned an everyday spot, so ideally Kassian is either out or is 12/13th forward. Run a tough minutes line and a kid offensive line. Old school.
Foegele-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisatl-Hyman
Benson-McLeod-Yamamoto
Shore/Kassian-Ryan-Sceviour
Hey, if you have any bright ideas bring them on.
Trade Kassian + Perlini + 2023 3rd Rounder to Boston for DeBrusk w/ $750 K retained + Senyshyn
DeBrusk- McDavid – Puljujarvi
Hyman – Draisaitl – Senyshyn
Foegele – RNH – Yamamoto
Mcleod – Ryan – Sceviour
Hard no on DeBrusk for me. He is overpriced and will likely not deliver. Don’t know much about Senyshyn. While Kassian is a defensive boat anchor he still is a physical presence (yea I know it doesn’t seem to happen often!)
I get the DeBrusk concern, I am there as well, but this roster needs a shake-up. Both players want a change of scenery, and DeBrusk has never played with a Connor McDavid, plus it is his hometown team. It would be a worthy experiment and if it doesn’t work out, you can walk from DeBrusk ala Athanasiou, or there could be the potential to re-sign DeBrusk at a reduced cap hit during the summer. I see this as a Lazarus move, similar to Sam Bennett, a revived/motivated DeBrusk is better bet than the version of Kassian we have seen for the past 2 seasons…
Senyshyn is a much more physical player than Perlini, and is just as big and just as fast and also has a great shot. He also goes to the net and will score off rebounds, whereas Perlini is a periphery player. Nothing to lose here, although injury is a little bit of a concern with this player. IMO a motivated Senyshyn is a much better bet than the semi-motivated version of Perlini that we have seen, after his last game I think it’s time to move on and I was very high on him….
I would rather give Perlini an opportunity. He has history with Tipp
Pretty sure Boston would be looking for more there.
For over a year I have been generally against a DeBrusk acquisition if Boston was looking for some sort of real value. Given his contract, one has to look at the acquisition as a pure rental and him being qualified as a unlikely occurrence.
With that said, in the trade proposed, the value out is limited (and one could argue that Kassian off the books for the next two years has great value to the OIlers) so, 100%, I would make that trade.
I don’t see why the Bruins would. There is chatter that they were looking at acquiring Kass for last playoffs so maybe they put value on Kass at $3.2M X2 (and a bit) but it seems a stretch to me.
Staple Nuge to Leon’s hip and ship Yams to the bottom 6.
Why boat anchor Drai ?
See this is good. Now you and I are finally headed in the right direction.
We know that today Bellmare is 36-years-old and still playing effectively in the NHL while a 34-year-old Ryan is playing himself out of the league with 2 points in 26 games.
What we don’t know is what if anything in their underlying numbers could have predicted this?
That is the question.
I’m at work, I’ll try to chip away at this and welcome you to do the same.
Obviously the 2 goals in 43 games in Calgary stick out like a sore thumb for Ryan.
Looking at Derek Ryan, it’s interesting some of his numbers look *too good* like a CA/60 of 41.3 and a ga/60 of 1.61.
Other than that his on the fly starts /60 are at 58.3 (highest on the team for forward playing more than 100 min.)
In fact, Ryan was 10th in the league that year in on the fly starts/60 for players who played more than 300 minutes. I think that might be a flag for mobility or skating issues.
He is the company of real burners like Corey Perry, and Jason Spezza though those guys have better hands.
Bringing in a guy who was sheltered on the fly by his coach to play tough d zone minutes on the Oilers might have been a mistake, no?
Can you offer a superior option that was available for the same money?
Yeah we can look for predictive stuff with these guys. I don’t think there’s anything concrete in regards to Ryan, but I could be wrong.
We could also add Burakovsky vs Athanasiou as well, since Sakic and analytics have been given credit for Burakovsky while Holland has been roasted for AA.
Anyway, I’ll also try to have a look later when I have more time.
Also, you still don’t think Smith is a good/decent bet even with the projected regression?
We’re dealing with outliers, so it’s challenging to project these players.
Ryan looks like he was heavily sheltered by Calgary and even amoungst the league.
I’ve looked in OTF shifts a lot in the past. What I found is that there are some coaches who’re very aggressive in using it to shelter players, others less so, and others not at all.
It is in interesting stat. Sort by least OTF shifts per sixty and you get a who’s who of the NHL tough minute players.
Last year
-1. Leon Draisaitl, 3. Connor McDavid, 6. Landeskog, 9, Mackinnon, 11. Eichel
On the flip side
-1. Tanner Kero, 2. Travis Boyd, 3. Antoine Roussel, and 4. Nate Thompson
So it is an interesting way to separate the wheat from the chaff.
I think it’s instructive that Derek Ryan was on the wrong end of that
What are your thoughts Derek Ryan’s high OTF starts during his last year with Calgary?
A high OTF% or OTF/60 basically means the coach does not prefer to put said player on ice when there is a proper reset. The player is put on ice because everyone else is not available or tired (very definition of an energy line?!?).
On the contrary, the coach would probably try to put a marquee player (McDavid /Draisatl/etc) every chance he gets (after the playetr catches enough breaths).
I’m not sure we “know” that Ryan is playing himself out of the league.
We know he was very good in the first portion of the season. We know he got hurt. We know he was awful for a large middle portion of the season. We know he recovered his game in the last 3 games or so.
What we don’t know is what the middle portion of terrible was or why.
Could it have been age-related regression and will start to consume more of his TOI? Sure, maybe.
Could it have been, partially or largely, due to the injury he suffered and a slump. Sure, maybe.
He’s currently on pace for 6 points per 82 games (-32). If he keeps that pace, there’s no doubt his NHL career is over.
You’re right though, we don’t know if it’s age or injury.
Of course, if he plays like he did in that large middle portion that I mentioned, he’s done.
He did play better before it and after it and, of course, right before the terrible middle portion there was an injury.
OK, so we’ve got 2 goals in 43 games, and high OTF starts as red flags for Ryan prior to joining the Oilers. His shot rates also went down the last year in Calgary, but not scoring chance or HD scoring chance rates.
I figured I’d do this a bit more systematically and compare Ryan and Bellemare in the 3 years before each signed their 2 year deals at age 34 (Ryan 2x$1.25M with the Oilers in 2021 and Bellemare 2x$1.8M with the Avs in 2019). For Ryan all 3 years were with Calgary, for Bellemare the 1st year was with Philadelphia, years 2 and 3 were with Vegas.
This will be a little bit of a weird comparison since Bellemare has never scored much, and it’s difficult to appreciate his value (I haven’t watched him myself enough to understand why 3 good teams have signed him to multi-year deals through his mid-30s). His on ice number at least should be worth comparing.
TOI/game (5v5, PP, PK)
Ryan
18-19 9:47 1:43 1:55
19-20 11:36 0:53 1:44
20-21 9:31 0:15 1:45
Bellemare
16-17 9:43 0:03 2:45
17-18 9:49 0:08 2:08
18-19 10:12 0:04 1:58
-Similar 5v5 TOI (the big drop that’s been noted for Ryan in 20-21 was more a big jump in 19-20).
-Similar PK TOI, though Bellemare gets a little more.
-Ryan was getting PP TOI but it dwindled with time.
5v5 individual (G/60, A/60, P/60, IPP)
Ryan
18-19 0.76 1.06 1.82 70.6
19-20 0.61 1.14 1.75 76.7
20-21 0.29 1.61 1.90 72.2 (1.61 is driven by A1 as A2 was ~0.45 each year)
Bellemare
16-17 0.30 0.23 0.53 36.8
17-18 0.51 0.76 1.27 65.2
18-19 0.31 0.54 0.85 47.8
-No comparison here, Ryan produced legitimate 5v5 offense, Bellemare produces at 4th line rates.
5v5 shot rates (SH/60, SH%, iCF/60, iSCF/60 iHDCF/60)
Ryan
18-19 6.1 12.5 10.1 6.1 3.3
19-20 6.8 8.9– 11.2 7.0 3.0
20-21 4.3 6.9— 8.2 6.6 4.0
Bellemare
16-17 6.0 5.0 11.7 4.7 1.7
17-18 7.4 6.9 12.7 5.8 1.9
18-19 7.4 4.2 12.7 7.0 4.0
-As I mentioned above, Ryan’s shot rates and shooting% dropped off, but his scoring chances and HD chances held steady.
Bellemare was pretty steady but a clearly inferior offensive player to Ryan.
Bellemare was always considered a 4C who could be relied on to outscore the dregs, PK and win face-offs.
His last season in Colorado. he did just that with a FO win percentage of 60.8%
Now how were the players used at 5v5.
%OzoneStarts, OTF Starts/60
Ryan
18-19 46.4 46.7
19-20 43.7 45.0
20-21 55.9 58.3
Bellemare
16-17 47.5 53.3
17-18 47.7 50.4
18-19 57.2 46.2
I was going to add % TOI vs elites from PuckIQ but it won’t load for me now. IIRC Ryan was sheltered by TOI vs elites as well as OTF starts. No idea about Bellemare.
You can see that overall Ryan and Bellemare got pretty similar usage over the 3 years, though Ryan did get more OTF starts in year 3, and both players got more OZ starts in year 3.
I’m not sure about the significance of OTF starts. I was never a fan of that Dellow article.
Looking at the 20-21 OTF leaders now, many of the players with a high numbers seem to be classically sheltered (we knew that). Others are also among the league leaders in DZ starts/60 (notably Tanev and Lafferty from the Penguins) so it’s not a totally simple metric. Bellemare was also right behind Ryan in OTF starts/60 in 20-21 FWIW (I guess you could argue a sign of decline, but also right before he signed a similar 2 year deal to Ryan, but at age 36).
On ice stuff now.
Shots (SF/60, SA/60, SF%, SF%rel)
Ryan
18-19 30.1 25.3 54.4 +1.5
19-20 28.9 30.8 48.4 -0.6
20-21 29.7 21.5 58.0 +6.4
Bellemare
16-17 24.0 25.3 48.7 -2.7
17-18 31.0 27.1 53.4 +2.7
18-19 33.0 27.6 54.5 +0.7
Goals (GF/60, GA/60, GF%, GF%rel)
Ryan
18-19 2.57 1.51 63.0 +7.5
19-20 2.28 1.60 58.8 +13.4
20-21 2.64 1.61 62.1 +10.2
Bellemare
16-17 1.43 1.65 46.3 +1.3
17-18 1.95 1.78 52.3 -0.9
18-19 1.78 2.09 46.0 -6.1
Scoring chances (SCF/60, SCA/60, SCF%, SCF%rel)
Ryan
18-19 26.9 21.9 55.2 +2.1
19-20 26.7 26.7 50.0 +0.6
20-21 30.6 17.1 64.1 +11.8
Bellemare
16-17 18.4 20.3 47.6 -2.6
17-18 28.2 23.9 54.1 +3.0
18-19 28.6 24.4 54.0 -1.2
HD scoring chances (HDCF/60, HDCA/60, HDCF%, HDCF%rel)
Ryan
18-19 11.3 8.6– 56.9 +5.0
19-20 10.3 10.6 49.3 -1.2
20-21 11.6 5.7– 67.0 +14.1
Bellemare
16-17 6.6– 7.7 46.3 -4.4
17-18 10.7 8.7 55.0 +6.8
18-19 15.9 9.7 62.2 +8.4
I’d say Ryan has the advantage in every on ice metric both overall, and in the last year before each of their 2 year UFA deals.
Put it all together and there are a couple of red flags for Ryan. Overall a really impressive resume on paper at least (consistently producing offense, a regular penalty killer, FO guy which hasn’t been talked about, and good to great on ice metrics across the board).
I still think it’s close to impossible to criticize a 2 year x $1.25M deal for Ryan (though many are). And beyond that it’s even more difficult for me to see any statistical or analytic argument that Sakic/Springings signing Bellemare was a better bet than Holland signing Ryan.
In my opinion the reason the Draisaitl line doesn’t have the results they had on the heater is that their opposition upon reviewing tape recognized they don’t have a winger that drives the net! This allows them to at times to double team Draisaitl. A bigger winger with size that goes to the net would open up lanes for Draisaitl. The perfect player for that would be JP! Play Foegle and Hyman with Connor and drop Yamamoto to the third line. Lines are then balance with size and each line has at least one winger with size that goes to the net!
This is a bang on post if the opposition Coach has figured out the best strategy to defend line 2 why hasn’t Tippett countered. I know Leon’s a beast and I believe he thrives on the heavy lifting but not for 82 games. Tippett needs to adjust in real time Stanley Cup worthy teams don’t lose 5 in a row at home with last change.
Puljujarvi brings more to McDavid than Hyman does. Foegele brings enough of Hyman’s qualities to that line.
For Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl, Hyman should be enough.
Foegele McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Hyman
Benson McLeod Yamamoto
Shore Ryan Sceviour
That I believe is the optimal deployment of the current talent.
I am 100% on-board with these lines in the short term.
I don’t think Foegele is a medium or long term option in the top 6 but, for now, or until another top 6 forward emerges, trying him there makes sense to me.
I think Yamamoto and McLeod could/should/might thrive as a 3rd line duo and, 100%, I’d like to see Benson get some reps with actual NHL skill (Yamamoto has NHL skills, so does McLeod – even if they are developing their games still) and speed.
100%, would love to see these lines.
I would also be intrigued by some sort of Nuge for Yamo swap on your lines, idea being to get Nuge 3C, particularly if those 3-4 C’s are just not doing enough.
Surely Nuge would do wonders for that 3rd line at C, but 1) how much does it rob from the top 6 and 2) would his wingers be able to support enough regardless.
Hyman doesn’t stay in front of the net but has skill. Once again in my opinion the correct balance is Fogele and Hyman with Connor. The size balance on the lines is also better!
Both the Oilers and NYI (maybe Dallas .. mileage may vary) have played more games with their back-up goalie than their starter. NYI has floundered, the Oilers are in a play off spot.
Getting your starter back for the majority of starts is a big deal.
Mike Smith’s record (i.e. the team’s record with Mike Smith) in net over the last couple of seasons has been spectacular.
Lets not forget, in additional to “making saves”, Mike Smith brings an element that helps the defence get the puck without getting hit and with time and helps the team’s transition in general.
The team has the ability to play different, to play “faster” with Mike Smith in net.
Sometimes opponents even strategize, that is, change their zone entry strategy, due to Smith.
Yes, Smith is more than a stopper.
Ten years after and not one mention of Woodstock.
I would leave Nuge right where he is. On Draisaitls wing and PP1. By now it’s pretty clear he’s a complimentary player, not a line driver. When everyone is healthy I’d play Hyman on the right side of that line and bump Foegele up with McDavid and JP.
What I don’t understand is the push from posters here to move Nuge to 3C? I don’t see 3C as a huge issue right now, and even if it was, I don’t see Nuge as an improvement over McLeod in that spot.
McLeod is bigger, he’s faster, he’s better at face-off, and he’s just as defensively responsible. Why would you want to push McLeod to the wing?
You could move McLeod to 4C if Ryan doesn’t continue to play as well as he has the past few games.
You could do that.
My point is McLeod is already a better option at 3C than Nuge. Why bump him over, or down, to make room for Nuge?
I don’t think there’s a lot of value there either. All of it would be on the offensive side of the puck though. Doubt McLeod is a better option in that regard.
While I do think that McLeod is generally a fairly responsible defensive player and can definitely help with zone exits and neutral zone transition, for me, I think declaring him a “better 3C” than Nuge is a bit premature.
Faceoffs aside (and we may have differing views on their overall value), its tough to compare McLeod’s defensive play in the bottom six against much weaker comp than Nuge when he plays center.
In any event, I think part of the premise of Nuge at 3C is that he would bring a bit more offence to the bottom six than McLeod at 3C. No Nuge isn’t “a driver” but I think he is a better offensive player generally than Ryan McLeod and could help with GF a bit more, at this stage.
If mcleod is a better option which i disagree with then its time to trade NUGE
I’m not near convinced that Foegele is a long (or medium) term option on McDavid’s wing. I do like his game and he does some things that help that line but I’m not sure he has the “puck skills” to play there for a while. He has three goals, yes, but only one was on that line (1PP and 1EN).
In any event, for now, might as well keep rolling with it and, once the forwards are back to full strength (if that even happens), we could see how Kailer does on that 3rd line:
Foegele/McDavid/Jesse
Nuge/Drai/Hyman
XX/McLeod/Yamamoto
I agree OP, mostly…
Perhaps:
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Leon-Foegele
Sure – we can mix up the top 6 in a few different ways but the premise is run with Nuge/Jesse/Foegele/Hyman as the top 6 wingers and McLeod/Yamo as the pair on the 3rd line and see how it goes.
I see Foegele and Kassian as similar players. They can play up for a short stretches but are really third line players
I agree with the general point that both are bottom six players (and Foegele likely not being a long-term option in the top 6 was part of my point).
I don’t necessarily agree they are similar style players (Kass and Foegele) in particular with the commitment to two-way responsibility and effort in the defensive zone (i.e. where Kassian has “issues” – even if he has been fairly committed over the last 2-3 games).