The Nuge has so much utility the Oilers often move him around in the middle of games. So far this season, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is averaging 20:34 per game, including 14:49 at even strength, 3:49 on the power play and 1:55 on the penalty kill.
Oilers fans are divided on the Nuge and how he should best be deployed. Some believe No. 3 centre, others are convinced he can do his best work as a second center on the Draisaitl line. In the past three seasons, RNH has also spent time with Connor McDavid. So, which is it?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ 2021 draft decision to select Xavier Bourgault over goaltending
- Lowetide: What’s the gap for Oilers between now and the 2016-17 playoff team?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Will this be another lost season?
- Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen isn’t the Oilers’ biggest summer mistake
- Lowetide: Hard-target search for the Oilers’ next starting goaltender
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- DNB: Time for the Oilers to move on from Mikko Koskinen
- Lowetide: If Oilers plan a coaching change, why stop there?
- New DNB: Exploring how the Oilers can get back on track
- Lowetide: Long December has Oilers fans looking for reasons to believe
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers fix their defence with the current personnel?
- DNB: Why getting Mike Smith back now is important to the Oilers’ present and future plans
- Lowetide: The five most effective Oilers mid-season recalls since 1979-80
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
NUGE OVER THE LAST THREE SEASONS (FIVE ON FIVE)
Nuge-McDavid over the last three seasons is good but when you consider how strong 97 is we’re probably looking at less than acceptable results. Consider this: When away from Nuge and Draisaitl, he has a 53.9 goal share and his line is delivering 3.29 goals-per-60. Put another way, Nuge suppresses offense when he’s with McDavid compared to McDavid without Draisaitl. That’s less than encouraging.
Nuge-Draisaitl is kind of out of this world and not based in logic and reason. The line scores 3.52 goals-per-60 with Nuge-Draisaitl (and not McDavid) and owns a 61.7 goal share. However, the shots and expected goals are shy of actual results. Is this sustainable? Well, my answer to you is that’s why Bill James uses three-year samples and the reason I also used three years in this look at Nuge. 49 percent of the shots and 62 percent of the goals?
This happened to the Oilers in the 1980’s. In 1984-85, the Oil owned 49.7 of the shots and 57 percent of the goal share (in all game states, it was 58 percent at even strength).
Nuge solo would need a driver on his line, like Taylor Hall back in the day. As you can see, the line doesn’t score much with Nuge as the driver and the line doesn’t outscore at all.
Does that mean he has no value? I think Nuge’s major value now is as Leon’s winger, and on special teams. In the last three seasons, he has averaged 23-45-68 per 82 games. Nuge is 1.69 points-per-60 at five-on-five.
Question: Where would you deploy him?
SPLITS
In his last seven games, Raphael Lavoie has scored six goals and nine points. In the previous 18 games, he had no goals and three assists.
TRACERS
I had an enjoyable but brief conversation yesterday online about the 2015 draft. Basically the gentleman I spoke to expressed the idea that Mathew Barzal emerging after the draft shouldn’t be used to criticize the Oilers (and Bruins, plus other teams) because his proper ranking wasn’t clear on draft day.
I have always argued that there are indicators that allow us to identify the next Barzal before he is drafted. I’m not naturally a person who brags, it’s the way I was raised, but I had a look back at my 2015 “redraft” after that conversation and thought I’d re-print it today.
So you know, this is my list, using the top player still on the board at each draft spot originally belonging to Edmonton. I’m not a scout, as you know, not even a terrific math man, but can count and do know that the draft works better if NHL teams consider the numbers. Here it is.
OILERS AT NO. 1 OVERALL: CONNOR MCDAVID
LOWETIDE AT NO. 1 OVERALL: CONNOR MCDAVID
The Oilers have been all-in on the draft since January 2010 but no one could have predicted the motherlode. Connor McDavid has changed everything since the lottery victory—including the weather. No skill here, he’s been No. 1 in 2015 for exactly forever.
OILERS AT NO. 16: TRADED FOR GRIFFIN REINHART
LOWETIDE AT NO. 16 OVERALL: MATHEW BARZAL
Barzal was No. 8 on my list, but his NHLE (82GP, 32 points) was on the low side compared to some ranked below him. I mention it because it looked like the market corrected on him more than my math. He’s a great young prospect, doubt he would have been a center in Edmonton.
OILERS AT NO. 33 OVERALL: TRADED FOR GRIFFIN REINHART
LOWETIDE AT NO. 33 OVERALL: JANSEN HARKINS
One of my favorite players in the draft, as with Barzal he was taken later than my projection (No. 47, to Winnipeg). A nice range of skills, he is a terrific prospect and the Jets are damn good at the draft process.
OILERS AT NO. 57: TRADED FOR CAM TALBOT
LOWETIDE AT NO. 57: OLIVER KYLINGTON
The Oilers made a very good deal (imo) for Talbot, for me this was a great value deal and one of Chiarelli’s best moves of summer (there were four picks involved, three heading out and one heading back to the Oilers).
Kylington is a boom or bust selection but I liked him as a first-round pick so there was fabulous value (Calgary, emerging as a splendid drafting club, grabbed him at No. 60). Could be a major home run.
OILERS AT NO. 79: TRADED FOR CAM TALBOT
LOWETIDE AT NO. 79 OVERALL: RYAN PILON
Scouts clearly didn’t like Pilon as much as me, or they liked one player a little more all the way to selection No. 147. I’d be interested in knowing why he fell so far, he’s an offensive defender with size and speed—those player-types usually go much higher.
OILERS AT NO. 86: TRADED FOR TODD MCLELLAN
LOWETIDE AT NO. 86 OVERALL: ANDREW MANGIAPANE
Terrific skill player (ended up going No. 166 overall to Calgary. !!!!) he’s a re-entry and is coming off a monster season (104 points in 68 OHL games). Great selection.
OILERS AT NO. 117 OVERALL: CALEB JONES
LOWETIDE AT NO. 117 OVERALL: ETHAN BEAR
The Oilers draft a mobile defender who may be a little shy offensively and my list delivers a fine two-way blue with great passing ability and a plus shot. Interesting how much a deep draft impacts things, there’s still plenty of quality left on the board late in the fourth round.
OILERS AT NO. 124 OVERALL: ETHAN BEAR
LOWETIDE AT NO. 124 OVERALL: NIKITA KOROSTELEV
Two terrific prospects. I had Bear at No. 38 overall so you can imagine my delight when Edmonton chose him 90 spots later. I think Korostelev is a very fine prospect, skill and size in an interesting package. Toronto did a nice job getting him at No. 185 overall.
OILERS AT NO. 154 OVERALL: JOHN MARINO
LOWETIDE AT NO. 154 OVERALL: NATHAN NOEL
Marino was on my list (No. 112) and I liked him based on Kirk Luedeke’s description. Saw him good at the orientation camp and he’s going to be a fun player to track (USHL next season). Noel passed through the draft but that’s fine, you can’t convince me he was unworthy. We’ll probably be talking about him next draft.
OILERS AT NO. 208 OVERALL: MIROSLAV SVOBODA
LOWETIDE AT NO. 208 OVERALL: VLADIMIR TKACHEV
I like both picks—taking a goalie at 208 should be an annual event—with Svoboda at 20 the older of the two. Tkachev was a star last season, less so this time but for me the talent remains and he’s worth a pick.
OILERS AT NO. 209 OVERALL: ZIYAT PAIGIN
LOWETIDE AT NO. 209 OVERALL: MICHAEL MCNIVEN
And I get my goalie with the last pick. .914SP in the OHL is pretty damn good if you ask me. That said, the Oilers picked a very interesting prospect in their own right.
OILERS GAMES PLAYED: Connor McDavid 440; Cam Talbot 314; Caleb Jones 106; Ethan Bear 158; John Marino 142, Griffin Reinhart 30. Total: 1,190 games.
LOWETIDE GAMES PLAYED: Connor McDavid 440; Mathew Barzal 314; Andrew Mangiapane 211; Ethan Bear 158; Oliver Kylington 127; Jansen Harkins 87; Vladimir Tkachev 4. Total: 1,341.
I think Peter Chiarelli made a solid trade for Cam Talbot and the scouts did wonderful work, but the net loss in quality procured becomes obvious via this exercise. These years later, the Oilers gathered five actual NHL players, my list grabbed six. Edmonton’s list has Talbot, and that’s something or real value. My list has Barzal and Mangiapane, and I would argue that has more value.
Bottom line: Keep the scouts, hell give them raises and hire more! My point has always been hire someone who knows math, use an equivalency your math guy believes in, and review the scouts final list. If there’s a guy in the top 40 who doesn’t post much offense, circle the name and slide him down 100 spots.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun day on TSN1260, we welcome back Hernan Salas as show producer and Jason Gregor will be by to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and the week to come in the NHL. We’ll also focus on the NFL, this is the day all the failed coaches get fired and we’ll talk about the playoffs this coming weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Can everyone who reads this give me a negative vote and try flagging me to see if the RED flag actually works.
I am not sure how the red flag is better than a few days ago when the idea was to give 3 comments to people. I thought Lowetide had enough and was looking forward to a comments section that is Oilers related and not passive-aggressive battles on Oilers fans. Is the red flag – a red flag solution? Can we go back to 3 comments.
Please red flag me to see if this message vanishes into the void (and how long it takes).
By the way did you hear about the other team score, trade, news so others will downvote me so I will get more energy to get the smartest people in room to respond so I can BURN DOWN THE WORLD?
#Thecommentsection #ShittzCreek
After hanging 42 shots on Detroit on Saturday, the Kings are doing again with 31 SOG after 2 periods but this time against the Rangers.
It appears the Kings may be arriving a little earlier than expected as a win tonight moves them into 3rd in the Pacific ahead of the Flames.
Calgary will however have games in hand.
Kings now 12-4-1 against the EC.
Can you send the abridged rules for when games in hand is or isn’t a factor?
Trade Barrie, Bourgault, Lavoie, Rodrigue, Koekkoek, and a 5th to Arizona for Chychryn, Kessel and Boyd. When Arizona moves to Quebec they have 3 more Quebecois players.
No way!!!!
Switch that 5th to a 6th and I may think about it…
Thing is that trade would actually make the Oilers significantly better this season at the cost of some green bananas.
The fact that your trade proposal is so painful suggests it’s likely reasonable value.
I’d do it in a heartbeat, even if I’d want some kind of pick (like a 6th & 7th staggered by a year) coming back.
Changed my mind… I want Liam Kirk back in that deal, too! The modern version of Tony Hand!
FWIW, Kane publicly stated he was fully vaccinated while in the AHL.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/12/22/evander-kane-among-barracuda-players-in-ahl-covid-19-protocol/amp/
Just took a look at the betting line on tonight’s game SEA @ COL.
The over/under was set at 6.5.
That could fall by the end of the 1st period.
Did you ever miss big time on that Seattle team.
So you have pointed out 731 times.
Took longer than expected but had a unit on the over under with a very nice payout.
Grubauer was exceptional in the loss.
We all have our internal narrative about our team
I don’t think Holland will sign Kane
But, I watched l some Caps Blues, and what struck me is it looked watching adult hockey, and the Oilers by comparison looked like kid hockey
Big players battling their asses off for everything playing with tempo
Playoff hockey
The Oilers need help with that still
Those teams you mentioned along with Carolina, Florida, Tampa and Colorado play like machines.
I find the East plays like that reg season, the west tries to playoffs
Maybe it’s travel. A bus ride or 40 minute flight and home to bed makes life easier for a large chunk of games
I pine for then days we were limited to three posts a day.
#thegoodolddays
The Oilers are NOT 32nd in Wheeler’s new team prospect rankings!
But we will always be in HH teams prospect rankings
With small quibbles here and there, I’ve always found Wheeler’s rankings to be excellent.
No surprise Seattle is last since they’ve only gone through one draft.
Where do you think the Oilers will rank this time?
Hardly weaponized their cap space.
id say 15-20
Ok Edmonton-
The winter, small city in the northern part of the world, nothing to do but play hockey is going play in our favour getting Kane.
Kane’s agent and parents are going to be in his ear to get his life pulled together. Momma Kane is going to have him move home to Vancouver or Edmonton to stay out of trouble.
I’m not so sure the Sharks are going to be able to terminate Kame’s contract. This is going to an arbitrator.
No way the Sharks should get out of the cap hit.
The Kings got out of the Mike Richards contract under similar circumstances although they had a small cap penalty (currently $900K/year)
From what I understand (from listening to the likes of Seravelli), the contract is terminated, that is done, that is over. The league approved it, the player is now a free agent and free to procure another contract.
The NHLPA has disputed, filed a grievance – it may go to arbitration and a settlement be agreed to but the contract cannot be reinstated.
It could be similar to the Mike Richard situation where the settlement came with cap implications.
Exactly.
Keith Gretzky was on with Stauff today:
1) Bob asked if Deharnais was tracking for an NHL contract and Gretzky said he thinks so. Bob also asked who was the closest to the NHL among the right shots, the 3 guys on NHL deals or Deharnais and Gretzky mentioned Deharnais. He seems to love his “reach”.
2) When asked about Broberg, Gretzky said he thinks he’s going through a bit of fatigue right now. This matches my eye test as he hasn’t been nearly as prominent the last 4-5 games and his ice time does seem a bit down.
3) When asked about Holloway, Gretzky said if and when he’s down he’s going to be play a ton.
4) When asked about Lavoie and his recent hot streak, without saying it, Gretzky intimated the thing was “working hard” – mentioned the coaches have worked with him, lots of video, etc. and that the AHL is a tough league, high scoring junior players often have to learn to work hard in order to produce. Stauff asked specifically “He’s a ways away still, isn’t he” and Gretzky confirmed and that he needs to concentrate on his game in the AHL and he’s worked harder the last while and improved without the puck.
5) Stauff asked about Marody and Griffith and mentioned many fans want them up. Gretz says that Marody has been a great trooper and teammate – he never drags his lip, etc. He’ll be ready if the call comes. Both players want a chance. They do not have bad attitude – good teammates – if they get the call, they’ll be ready.
Interesting I wonder why Berglund isn’t in that convo?
He has been hurt for a little while now and maybe they don’t see the upside they hoped for? I’m not sure – I’ve heard very little verbal on his through the season and I try and listen to Jay W. prior to every game.
€√¥£€^$
Reply to OriginalPouzar
January 9, 2022 6:42 pm
How is Desharnais looking this season, my impression is that that he is an all-situations go-to option for Woody. I wonder if the big brass would consider signing him to an NHL deal at any point. He has come along quite impressively from his first AHL games where he looked like he was totally in over his head, to potting the OT winner the last game..
Good to see when folks like Bruce, LT and Stauffer are thinking the same things as me😀. It only took me 12 years to get here…
I still opine that Deharnais will not play in the NHL.
Would love to be wrong – for me, he’s similar to Niemelainen but a worse skater with worse puck skills and worse hitting mechanics.
No that you’ve said that, I look forward to watching his Coffey-esque end to end goal tonight 😀
Well, considering tonight’s game has been postponed (more Covid issues for Abbotsford)…..
Oh, I did not know, thanks for the info!
Thanks a lot for this OP
Kane’s NHL page shows him and …..
Oskar!!
He’s also a career -67
It’s meant to be
Perfect
I covered this earlier in the season, his teams have mostly been terrible and on good teams he had much better numbers. I will try and dig this up.
But watch him go and sign with Arizona. As much as it makes sense, he won’t be signing in Edmonton, but I would like to see it.
If the Oilers sign E. Kane, I’m done. I’ll tune in for McDrai highlights, but as supporting the team materially, I’m done.
Kenny’s biggest defence of the Keith trade was literally “good in the room”. Then he’s interested in that parasite who we seem to forget tried to pay someone to have an abortion. From both sides of that argument, that’s just plain sleezy.
We needed: #3 Center, goaltender, D depth to cover kids development.
What he’s trying to get us: “leadership”, Evander Fucking Kane.
I’d take Harry Kane over him.
Maybe Kenny thinks he’s getting Patrick.
Harry Kane would be excellent on either McD’s or Drai’s wing.
Not a lot of hockey skill available in the clergy! We need to be far more realistic with our expectations re athletes and other public figures! A roster spot on a professional hockey team does not require any form of clearance not even confidential. There are morality clauses in contracts and they are reasonably liberal as they should be. I do however understand the public concern as these players are role models due to their status as athletes.
Should pro athletes be judged on their publicly available personal failures or as a whole?
That are often known inside an organization and in the media but kept quiet for whatever reason?
I think you might be disappointed with many athletes if it’s the latter.
We aren’t talking about a guy that has made questionable judgements, but was young, inexperienced, etc. This is a guy that has repeatedly made the absolute wrong choice morally and ethically.
Let’s take the moral aspects out of it. Let’s look at it from a purely monetary point of view. What is the largest demographic with the largest amount of disposable income that is as yet largely untapped by hockey? Women. It’s now a bad business decision to acquire him, if you wish to grow into this niche. The optics are horrible.
We took on Kassian, but at least he showed some understanding that this was last chance saloon and to my knowledge, wasn’t a misogynistic piece of weasel poop.
The gambling? That’s an addiction, an illness. There’s help for that when he wants it. The rest? That’s all him and all you are signing up for and all you are telling your fanbase and potential fans is acceptable in order to win.
I hear you
I also don’t think it will happen
So, he wore tracksuits, allegedly gambled on hockey, has a spending and gambling problem, lied about his vaccination status and got disliked by some of his teammates. As far as we know, he doesn’t do drugs, and hasn’t been awful to women or minorities.
Sounds like a typical average Joes going through their 20’s. Except that he’s athletically gifted.
I’m fine with taking him for a test drive for the next 40-something games.
He’ll be looking to rehab his image, and get another payday.
Oiler’s need secondary scoring, and after this season are under no pressure to be the team to give him his next long-term payday.
Hockey is a business … winning sells … the Oilers are currently outside of the playoffs.
You know what turns off the casual fans? … missing the playoffs.
I think you missed checking yes box on the awful to women.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/news/judge-rules-sharks-evander-kane-must-face-discovery-in-abortion-for-pay-lawsuit/6eUxPR75fBSZ/%3famp=1
This woman is alleging that Kane was going to pay her $2 million to get an abortion. Given his ongoing financial woes, this allegation kind of defies belief.
There are people that just snap out of it and become good human beings sometime around 30 ish to in their 40s.
Per Nugent-Bowman, the Ken Holland media avail tomorrow at 10am is not due to anything major or breaking but due to media requests for it.
Oh, so Holland actually has to face the music for all the failures over the last couple of months instead of hiding out with his psychic, gazing into the crystal ball?
Oh wait, it’s the Edmonton media, so expect softballs from everybody except DNB, who will get yelled at
And DNB will be referred to as Nugent-Hopkins 😜
Given the speculation that Kane wouldn’t come to Edmonton:
Darren Dreger on TSN 1260:
“I know the Oilers have made calls (on Evander Kane). I know Kenny Holland has talked to the agent, Dan Milstein…I think Edmonton, if they stay interested, and it seems that they are, would probably be in the top 5 (teams) from Kane’s perspective.”
Per NHL News and Updates Twitter (I haven’t listened to the spot yet).
But why??
You’d have to leave him in the US and play only there
I thought he claimed he was fully vaccinated now.
Kane was just on a flight from the US to Canada – he wouldn’t have been able to if not vaccinated, right?
Well they haven’t been forthcoming with which recent protocol he broke
Yes, they have – he took a flight to Vancouver when he was supposed to still be in quarantine from a previous positive test.
I recommend you listen to this morning’s DFO Rundown.
Yeah you’d have to assume he would be willing at this point in his NHL career to get vaccinated???
Why would Edmonton be good for Kane?
(1) play with 97 & 29;
(2) we suck so would get prime minutes;
(3) Edmonton is boring so he’d stay out of trouble???
(4) Looked at the way they treated Kassian???
(5) good history with having BIPOC players on the team???
A Hail Mary for Holland if there ever was one, bail his weak summer out
Baggage for sure, but how often do you get players (on the ice) like that for free and should be cheap?
He almost has to make a serious attempt if they’re all in
(6) Nowhere to spend serious money – his accountant will approve
The @EdmontonOilers From Greg Wyshynski
are just wacky: 10-0-0 when leading after 1st period, 0-12-2 when trailing after the 1st period
This leads me to………McDavid, Drai, Jessie ….you’re up. Go get the lead.
It is good to know that Holland has been in touch with Kane’s agent (per Dreger) – presumably the leadership group has been involved (or will be prior to anything proceeding).
leadership group. hahahahahahahaha that’s a good one, OP. I knew you had a sense of humor somewhere in there 🙂
Darren Dreger reporting that Ken Holland has been in contact with Evander Kane.
OK. I’m weak. Sh*t just got real. I’ll take Evander Kane in a track suit, on a one yr deal at $1m
#GMingIsHard
Given our on ice needs and budget, Kane could be a perfect fit as top 6 “placeholder” until Holloway arrives full time in Oct…….. IF! The Price is Right!
#EvanderKaneComeOnDown!
I think you have it exactly correct.
With Kane, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Still, put that aside, this is not about his redemption. This is about leverage and risk. The short term bet adding Kane for goal scoring and grit – that could pay off substantially.
I think there will 3-4 teams in the mix.
I’d guess there will be more that at least make an inquiry.
Hockey seasons are becoming more and more like Netflix episodic series.
No telling when the season will start or end.
#SituationFluid
When the heck does the next season of City on a Hill start???
Succession? Alone? The Sinner? Island of Bryan?
Peaky Blinders? The Mandalorian? Yellowstone? Ray Donovan (movie?)
One night this week I’m going to re-watch the Jets Oilers game from Nov 18th.
~I’m old and don’t remember the outcome. (but I must have saved it for a reason) Please no spoilers.~
#GoldFishEffect
Holloway gets a skate in, immediately gets popped into quarantine. They should just gather everyone up that’s left, players, coaches, whatever staff needs to be around, stick them in a steamroom for a hour together and let the pass around complete the full circle throughout the club.
I don’t want to go down the Covid rabbit hole, but, if just one guy gets seriously sick???
#FirstDoNoHarm
People used to do this with children and chicken pox before the vaccine became available.
Yeah. In times gone by they believed the removal of blood from a patient could prevent illness and cure disease.
Leeches were at a premium 🙂
That’s what my mom did when I was a kid. Cautionary tale though. Childhood chicken pox linked to shingles in adults.
Highly unlikely in the vaccinated, especially boosted, and in that age-group. Plus, they’ve got top notch care that would have access to monoclonales as well. I believe one of the products out there is still useful. It wouldn’t be a bad wager…
That’s likely true, but for me it’s more that they’re most probably all going to get it at some point.
If they get it now vs. later they’ll miss less games, likely not catch this variant again, plus be exempted from testing.
Yeah it would be damn nice to get it out of the way sooner than later.
Transgressions aside, the single biggest reason for me not to pursue Evander Kane is the fact that “the players” in both the locker rooms of Winnipeg and San Jose wanted Kane gone at all costs. And there were lots of savvy vets in both rooms.
We can quibble about Kane’s value and the ability of Coaches to manage him etc, but the players know!
Also, Kane is not vaccinated so, practically speaking, could not choose a Canadian team.
Yours is the easy answer! How he would be in the room has importance but the key is his performance on the ice! This can work! The in the room expectations may have to change to make it work! The key is in the interview process and prior to signing it is imperative is to find out what Kane’s expectations are. If they can be accommodated you sign him! His skill would make the team better on the ice! The key is, in my opinion what is acceptable by the group off the ice. He shouldn’t have to be anyones “friend” just do his job on the ice. I am not saying the situation would be ideal but it could be mutually beneficial. I speak from experience with a young Marine in an elite small team war tie setting that worked out for me as the team leader after said Marine had been jettisoned from three other teams. Animal “ Nick name by the team” and not used in his presence was an asset.
Well, I think Tip is safe for the remainder of the season. If Holland was going to change up the coaching you have to think he would do it during this covid layoff.
The same goes for a big trade involving a 1st rounder or high-end prospects.
It increasingly looks like Holland’s strategy is to let it ride.
Ken the “grinder” Tambellini. Or, If you prefer: Steve Holland.
Friedman in 32 Thoughts Pod this morning – he heard that he was asked about his first rounder and he said no. Much of it has to do with the team not being at the top of the standings right now.
They want to get healthy and people back in the lineup and see how it goes.
Holland is saying he’s not trading the first rounder with things how they are. It’s only on the table if it’s looking like it’s pick 25 or later.
Kenny’s got this one ^ right imo.
With how well we have been drafting that is a good idea
wow, This is really “chicken or the egg” mentality.
Ken, you do realize one of the reasons the team is not top in the standings is because you failed to address the goaltending right? Now your position is they have not played well enough so you are going to withhold help, perhaps in the form of the goaltender you should have gotten in the summer? You are the cause and the solution.
Maybe he shouldn’t spend a first, but it sounds like he doesn’t see it as his responsibility.
As I stated before, Holland goes for a nap around this time, wakes up at the trade deadline, calls his buddies to see what they got.
Hide and seek for $100 Grand a week.
This is a terrible take, IMO.
More COVID issues with Abbotsford so the Condors’ game is a no go tonight…..
My urgency to try Nuge at 3C is diminishing as McLeod looks more capable in the role. McLeod’s faceoff skill is surprising for his youth. Stapling Nuge to Draisaitl and Puljujarvi to McDavid seems prudent.
Providing McLeod with two wingers worthy of 3d line minutes for a 10+ game stretch would provide more info.
The Kraken Analytics with Alison has another great piece analyzing Response Goals and if they matter. That the Kraken provide Analytical reviews publicly is mind blowing to this Oilers fan.
https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/seattle-kraken-analytics-with-alison-response-goals/c-329643680
Great find…thanks.
Does Alison Lukan work for the Kraken?
Yes, she is part of there commentary team during intermissions and publishes game reports and other articles on there website.
OK, thanks. It was/is a bit hard to tell whether she’s employed by the team or a journalist covering the team. She clearly has close ties regardless. And agree it’s cool what they’re doing.
LAK make an interesting move hiring Marc Bergevin as a Senior Advisor.
Rob Blake was on an expiring contract but also received a contract extension.
Also speculation that the Kings are hot on the trail of Jacob Chychrun.
With the Kings vast prospect pool they have the pieces to make it happen.
Damn you stop trying to steal my favorite Coyote 🙂 🙂
BTW I do like that you bring a different perspective here. Sometimes we can’t see the forest for the trees. Watching lots of different teams games just makes it so clear how bad the Oilers are put together. Savoie. Lavoie, Samarukov, Broberg, blah blah blah do we ever get to the point of not having to hope for the future ??
Green bananas have been a staple food among Oiler fans for a very long time 🙂
Also some speculation that the Kings may take a swing at Brendan Gallagher who has stated publicly he doesn’t want to go through a rebuild in Montreal.
The Bergevin connection might help facilitate that deal if true.
I’m an Oilers fan and I sincerely hope the Kings give up young assets or picks to get the Gallagher contract.
The Kings have a penchant for over-ripe bananas.
The Kings currently have 5 natural centres playing in their NHL lineup and another (Alex Turcotte) on the taxi squad.
In addition, they have 8 more in the minors including Quinton Byfield, Gabriel Vilardi , Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Akil Thomas and Tyler Madden.
I’m pretty sure they could spare a couple.
Gallagher also has a prior connection to playing with Philip Danault which would be an intriguing twist to the move.
One does not trade away the strong future prospects for a “potential” moment of instant gratification. I would rather build slowly and incrementally and make trades only when they are good ones, not out of desperation for what might be in this season. Depleting future hope for present hope is extremely risky, in my view. That approach risks bringing on another decade of darkness. I don’t think we want that.
How, then do you explain the signing of a soon to be 30 year old Zack Hyman (yeah, I know it wasn’t a trade), the trade of Bear for Foegele or the trade for Duncan Keith?
Half pregnant?
Holland has gone all in besides a Goalie. Wishing Holloway pans out or long shot Lavoie finds a niche and can score at the NHL level. I thought with Hollands connections he would have assembled a solid team but he’s made some strange sideways moves that is costing the franchise now and in the future.
Hakstol’s Flyers teams consistently had bottom-tier save percentages. Both of his Seattle goalies are 30+ points below their career averages (small sample size with Driedger).
If I’m Holland, I have my math guys (guy?) and Schwartz digging into both of them to diagnose their slow starts. If you think it’s something systemic, make a play.
Could you do something like Koskinen, Yamamoto and a pick for Driedger and Jarnkrok? Could you figure out something around Kassian to get Grubauer?
More importantly: do the Oilers possess the advanced scouting tools that would help them paint a reliable picture of the outlier seasons for the two keepers? (If you have to ask the question..)
Just play Skinner 50% of the games. See if one has an in-house solution first. The Oilers don’t have the cap space nor the prospect pool to trade themselves out of their problems.
Skinner, on a cost and risk reward basis, is the best option to pair with Smith for the rest of the year.
Great right up LT
One thing to consider is that RNH solo results above are likely playing 2C as he usually does when they load up 97 and 29 on one line. Interesting to consider how Nuge would perform at 3 C, facing lower level competition or even a different role of trying to shut down other teams top lines. I suppose the latter role could be projected with his solo results above somewhat.
Something to think about
The Oilers lose Draisaitl’s shot as an even strength weapon if he is not playing with McDavid or Nugent-Hopkins.
Nugent-Hopkins has a pretty good shot when he uses it, and he will use it more if he is playing with Draisaitl.
Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl have low expected goals compared to actual goals because of their plus-shots AND shot quality. The expected goals is not inflated by rebound shots since the first shot goes in.
Nuge, and his all round utility, (Swiss Army knife) is fair value at $5.25m
He is not a great center.
Ken Holland is banking on Holloway, McCleod, Niemelainen and Skinner. ( and on a different time line Broberg, Bourgault, Savoie, Lavoie, Petrov, etc)
Today, your have to find a way to spread out minutes and talent.
You need a legit 3rd line.
Hyman McLeod JP ?
McDavid and Drai have to be counted on to make those around them better.
Nuge Draisatil Yamamoto
Foegele McDavid Kassian
Or some such thing. While we await the arrival of the Yutes.
( I have McDavid centering the 3rd line because we all know Kassian can’t be in the top six!) 😉
Don’t have Samorukov in there. Freudian Slip? or premonition?
Niemelainen isn’t ready this year. Lagesson is better right now. Niemelainen has more potential.
If the OIlers play Niemelainen this year, they will NOT make the playoffs. He makes too many mistakes. Russell or Lagesson > Niemelainen.
Benson McLeod Yamamoto should be the 3rd line with current personnel. Foegele with McDavid. Hyman with Draisaitl.
Foegele McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Hyman
Benson McLeod Yamamoto
Shore Ryan Sceviour
Niemelainen’s GA/60 is 2.02 – best among Oiler d-men.
My memory doesn’t recall major mistakes but I’m old.
Would love if Bruce could chime in on the Cult’s numbers for Niemelainen’s mistakes on high danger chances against…..
Notice you didn’t do GF/60 or GA/60 on the PK.
I didn’t do GF/60 because I was responding to an opinion that he makes too many big mistakes.
I’m not concerned with his PK as he would just be needed for depth PK duty when not in the lineup that is absolutely devastated by injuries/illness
Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer Lagesson in the lineup right now as well just don’t agree with labelling him as a high mistake makes in his 7-games.
Look, “but I’m old” is my thing, you’ll have to get your own. Like “I’m materially old” or something. 🙂
No room for Perlini?
HOLY CRAP!
What a playoff bracket for the NFL. An incredible number of stellar matchups.
And right at a time when the NHL is on semi-hiatus.
Bills / Pats
Steelers/Chiefs
Cowboys /Niners
What is this 1979?
And then there’s the Big Guns.
Raiders and Eagles!! haha GO UNDERDOGS!!
Somewhere, John Madden is looking down, smiling, telling colorful stories, and demanding his Madden NFL royalties continue in perpetuity.
Can we all at least coalesce around cheering against the Cowboys and the Bucs??
I can’t believe my Niners earned a playoff berth. I had thrown the season in the mental trashcan back at Christmas.
Ditto with the Raiders Bro!
Nailed Barzal. Great work LT (and math).
mcdavid
barzal
mangiapane
bear
marino
thats a championship building draft.
3 top 6 forwards
2 top 4 D
THAT….2015 …is a spectacular year as a draft analyst LT.
Randle being Randle, I would normally kid you that you would have a team with only small defensemen and no goalies.
But goodness gracious, those results would be at least 2 standard deviations above great.
Those are the kinds of results that you build a career on. Any (single) Scout with a success ratio like that could ride that success for several years even without repeating anything close to it. ( I once closed some big deals over the course of 18 months) that carried me/my reputation for several years.
Of course, Randle is inexhaustibly curious. Why would not all teams be paying more attention to this. I mean in Randle land, that extends as far as to ask why spend multiple millions of dollars on Scouts??? I get the platitudes about “need eyes on him”, “math is just but one tool”, etc. But in the world of Business, results are results.
I referred yesterday to the “American Model” for Business and Sports. American’s are world leaders at innovation and early adoption. I’m betting the top 10 Analytics departments in the NHL are all American (or close to American ie. Toronto).
Anyway. Congrats on these results. I know you devote a lot of mental energy and elbow grease to this endeavor. It must feel great to be validated by results like these. An American would shout these results from the rooftops and parlay them into bundles of cash ( I know this on a personal level, I have a lot of relatives in the US) . But alas LT is a good old Western Canadian boy, and round here, we say little when we’re losing and even less when we win.
I get the myriad reasons to employ scouts, but if I were a GM I would have my Analytics team (or in the Oilers case my Analytics guy) male real time draft day selections completely isolated from the Scouts. Just for comparison purposes.
Great job on the draft, LT. The golden rule is to grab two NHL players each draft and you far exceeded that. I agree that a team should hire the best scouts possible to get a read on a player’s style of play and character, but math should play a large part. Math never misses a game unlike the scouts who may catch a handful during the season. The Oilers have been drafting well the last few years but there is certainly still room for improvement.
Nuge’s shooting percentage right now is in the gutter. From 18-19 to 20-21, he shot 10.9% at EV. This season, he stands at 6.5%. I think that number creeps back up, and that will put him at borderline second/first line EV scoring.
Combine that with good PK ability and elite PP ability, and that is a good value for a 5 million cap hit.
I think the key is the cap hit
If things ever get normal if he stays decent it will look really good later
Nuge hasn’t shot that poorly since 2012-13 before he went for shoulder surgery (5.13%).
Something has to be up with him. He’s 4.2% on the year.
It’s funny, he currently also has the 2nd highest points/game of his career.
It’s possible something is up, but shit just happens sometimes too.
Hopefully is isn’t an injury and he reverts to scoring goals like he has through most of his career.
Whoever you talked with saying Barzal’s ranking wasn’t clear seems incorrect.
If Memory serves Barzal was ranked #5 – #12 on EVERY pre draft list.
Remember when ppl would say well EDM wasn’t gonna take Barzal @ #16, they were gonna take Ek 🙂
I still think the 2015 Draft could have set up Edm up much better than what occurred.
I would 100% support the Oilers signing Kane for 1 year. I doubt it will happen, and I doubt very much he’d want to come to Canada, but it’s hard to imagine a better way to quickly improve the forward corpse than by adding a power forward in his late prime than Kane.
I agree with this. He’s a no brainer addition if he wants to come.
Evander Kane is a “no brainer” all right. 🤡
It would be the Oilers version of “Dumb and Dumber”. #EvanderZak
I am in favour of signing Kane for the rest of this season.
Lol to the insult/endorsement combo 🙂
#OilerDerangementSyndrome
Harry and Lloyd are the best duo ever so….
Give him 2 million in chips at the Casino tell him he’ll be on the PP1 and on Leon’s flank. He’ll snap that up like a dog on a bone.
“corpse”
Typo or metaphor: you decide!
we used to refer to the “D corpse” for years 😀
The scheduling is actually working out pretty well for the Oilers in this stretch. They are all getting Covid out of the way during this mini break. Nuge won’t miss a pile of games with his injury either. Sucks to have no hockey but hopefully they are all back soon.
“The scheduling is actually working out pretty well for the Oilers in this stretch.”
You’re right there. They can’t lose if they don’t play.
The Draisaitl (without McDavid) numbers scream regression, but he’s done it for 3 seasons so it’s looking like he may be able to keep it up.
The weird thing is that his numbers were the opposite before that. It really started with Nuge-Yamamoto as his wingers, and has continued (with Yamamoto being the constant).
Draisaitl without McDavid
16-17 to 18-19
1701min 47.2%SF 47.2%xGF 41.3%GF
19-20 to 21-22
1554min 47.3%SF 47.4%xGF 55.8%GF
More interesting maybe, both his on ice SH% and SV% improved (SH% 7.8% to 10.5% and SV% .902 to .926).
Been watching Lavoie more closely, was surprised at the lack of offense early in the season. He seems to be heating up, finding confidence and maybe will have a really good last half of the season. Let’s hope! There’s a player there for sure.
Running 3c would be a lot easier with another winger or two.
Jayden Schwartz would look really good on this club.
No question Schwartz would look nice, but I feel like the team has enough wingers for 3 lines as it is.
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi have a 54% shot share and 56% goal share together. That seems to be working.
I know many don’t think Yamamoto is a top 6 winger, but Draisaitl-Yamamoto have a 64% goal share over 3 years together. They’re only 52% goals together this year, still decent, but there’s a strong history there. Whoever the other winger is (Nuge, Foegele, other) I’d keep them together for now at least.
For the 3rd line, I still like Foegele-Kassian as the wingers. They’ve got a 53% shot share, though only 39% goal share (3GF-6GA with Ryan, 4GF-5GA without Ryan, but the shot shares are strong either way). Whether it’s Nuge or McLeod between them I’d give them some time to see if the results can catch up to the process.
That’s enough players for 3 lines that *should* work, with Benson and Perlini also showing well recently.
That’s with the rose colored glasses, anyway.
I’m not sure that 56% goal share is “good enough” for McDavid with the team’s two best wingers (or two of the best 3 wingers), is it?
I think it is, yes.
OK, we’ll disagree then, even moreso when Jesse is apx $5M.
If McDavid is given two of the team’s top wingers, for me, 56% goal share isn’t good enough for Stanley Cup success.
I’m with OP on that one. I think McDavid can probably achieve 56% or close to it with lesser wingers. I bet he has in the past. If you move those top wingers to a line with a lesser C, then maybe that line gets over 50%. Like Hyman and Puljujarvi with Nugent-Hopkins. If your 3rd line is over 50% and McDavid is at 55%-ish and Draisaitl is similar around 55%, then you’ve covered your whole game aside from a 4th line that gets 5 to 10 minutes a night and drives the puck deep and checks the heck out of them and tries to get cycles going, get pucks on net and whistles in the opposition end. Foegele-McLeod-Kassian? I think McDavid could still achieve 55% with Benson and Perlini (Benson is pretty good in the corners and has great passing, and Perlini has scored at 20 goal pace over 177 games with lesser linemates as a younger player). Draisaitl would get Yamamoto and Holloway (eventually).
I think we’ve gone through this before.
Part of me being OK with the 56%GF is that I’m hoping for both the McDavid and Draisaitl lines to be in that range. Then following them, the 3rd line at 50%GF and the 4th a bit under water (say 45%GF).
That’s basically my rough template for success, 56%, 56%, 50%, 45% for the lines at 5v5. Maybe that doesn’t sound like much, but it’s solid when you factor in TOI.
I won’t go through the calculations unless you’d like to see them, but with 16 minutes per game for McDavid and Draisaitl, 10 min for the 3rd line and 8 min for the 4th, the above goal shares give a team that’s 53.4%GF at 5v5.
That (again) may not sound like much, but going back to the last lockout, top 5 GF% teams each year are usually at or above 54%GF at 5v5, so 53.4% is somewhere in the 6-10 range. In all situations it’s similar but the GF% is generally a shade lower.
When you factor in special teams (which have run at 61% under Holland/Tippett), the Oilers all situations GF% would grade out at 55.3%, which would be top 5 almost every year.
FWIW, a team that was 53.4%GF at 5v5 would have ranked (by year, since the lockout): 7th, 9th, 7th, 8th, 6th, 10th, 5th, 12th. (13-14 to 20-21)
And a 55.3% all situations GF% would rank: 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 7th.
McDavid and Draisaitl at 56% GF, with a couple of decent lines behind them, is a top 10 team at 5v5 and a top 5 team overall.
I understand all that, and you may be right, but I still not convinced that McDavid with the two top wingers being at 56% will be good enough.
I’m not sure the rest of the required GF% numbers will be reasonable with apx $23MM on the top line and both wingers being two of the top 2-way drivers on the team (Hyman and Jesse).
Of course, Holloway popping on his ELC and McLeod taking a step, etc. that type of stuff should help.
I know I’m “feeling” as opposed to following the math….
Evander Kane would be a great addition to this lineup today. His on ice performance and a long history of being very productive as a power forward could change the Oilers forward group immensely. Does he come with warts ? yes, as ugly as the toad that’s been rolling in the pond mud. That’s why he’s free.
Just sign him for a one year deal. His history would suggest he will not last long with any organization but I look at him as a 1 to 3 year solution. He solves a lot of problems. Smart organizations can reclaim projects like this ala Deangelo with the Canes. Kassian when he freshly arrived from Mtl. The mistake is resigning these types of players. Managed them for what they are, stop gap solution.
He’d be a great addition but I highly doubt he comes here. Any Canadian team for that matter. He’s walked the line on Covid (getting caught with a fake Vaxx card) and restrictions in Canada are way more than in the States.
Highly doubt he ends up here in the frozen taiga.
My guess is he goes to a contender like Florida.
I recall reading last week that Kane who had a modified NMC in his now voided contract that allowed him to pick 3 teams he would accept a trade to.
The report said those teams were Florida, Tampa and Vancouver.
Source?
Sorry…I’ve been trying to find it without success.
I was skeptical, but the speculated 3 team list is here: https://theathletic.com/3058457/2022/01/08/why-the-sharks-are-ready-to-end-their-tumultuous-relationship-with-evander-kane/?source=emp_shared_article
Well his contract is voided. Teams choose him, not the other way around unless he receives multiple offers. Not sure he gets to prove his value on good teams with skill already, so he’s likely to get a lesser role on the Florida teams. Also, Vancouver is on a hot streak. They’ve been awarded the cup already according to some reports. So don’t mess with success by adding cancerous components.
As you say, there could be multiple offers so he will indeed have some choice but at this point no one knows where those offers will come from.
I imagine his interest in Vancouver is based on it being his home town.
Wasn’t his latest issue predicated on crossing the border while COVID-positive, specifically to go to Vancouver?
Yep.
Florida, Tampa and Vancouver.
One of these things is not like the others
It appears winning is not high on Kane’s to do list.
I wouldn’t sign Kane. He’s got a horrific track record as a human being and is still under investigation for a number of contentious issues. No thanks.
Winning isn’t everything gentlemen. Let me remind you the last time a team put winning above everything, they ruined the lives of a number of young men both in and out of their own organization. Chicago and their staff’s approach is now looked upon in hindsight as being deplorable.
This kid just doesn’t get it. He’s had chance after chance after chance. He’s had countless mentors or people who could be the example for him like Byfuglien, Thornton, Marleau etc.. All came away saying thanks but no thanks.
As long as teams in the NHL keep putting crap like winning ahead of common goddamned decency, then players like Kane will continue to exist.
I disagree without saying any more.
I wouldn’t have kept Hopkins. He’s not the right fit for this team going forward. He’d be the perfect beige 2nd line center for an iffy team.
He’s not a scorer. This has become obvious over time.
He’s not a true playmaker either as he doesn’t actually create the room and the circumstances that lead to the goals.
This isn’t to say he’s bad – I’d just much rather spend that money and cap on a different type of player.
Now that he’s here – and if this team is actually serious about winning something sometime, there is only one place for him – third line C.
Rolling out 97-29-93 in the playoffs makes life easy. Go get wingers. Rent some each year. It’s probably the easiest position to do that.
You’ve also go 13, 18, 71 and 37 as solid contributors. I’d move 56 for a different sort of winger. That means you only have to actually rent one Samsonov. Again – pretty easy.
This top 9 almost makes itself – shows you how much “getting in their own way” has happened with the last 2 GMs. Sad.
Yes, I didn’t want to re-sign Nuge and I didn’t want to give Nurse $9m because I don’t think he’s worth that. Totally agree play him 3C and PP1.
I wanted them to go after Tarasenko and probably Hall for the spots that became Hyman and Hopkins.
Agreed on Nurse – a defensive reboot was a better move than what happened. Different mix of skills was in order. Especially if you added more scorers.
If winning a cup is forefront Danault at 5.5 for 6 would have been better imo
If Nuge is 3C, where does that leave McLeod, 4C?
Of course, McLeod is still developing but I see him, with his speed and transition abilities, to go along with already being good in the circle and having 2-way responsibility, as a center.
Perhaps in a year or two:
Holloway/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Nuge/Drai/Hyman
Foegle/McLeod/Yamamoto
(Savoie and Bourgault in the conversation for top 6 jobs. Lavoie in the conversation for middle six job. Petrov and Tulio, wilds card at this point).
I know Holloway is also a center – to this point.
Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) Tweeted:
Kane’s agent Dan Milstein says there’s lots of interest from a number of teams for his UFA client. Would be a one-year deal for rest of the season whenever he finds a new NHL home.
https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1480561623093895170?s=20
LT, your list would’ve been a haul!
In fairness, the Oilers draft without the Griffin debacle (most likely Eriksson-Ek and Carlo) would have been an epic haul only surpassed by those “every pick is a HoF-amer” drafts from the early days.
Agreed.
People complain about missing Barzal or the pick being JEE, but he’d look awful nice as 3C right now and Carlo patrolling the right side of the back end.
Between Nuge/Holloway/McLeod, the Oilers should have the 3C position covered going forward.
McLeod is trending to become that player, and I think his skill set is best suited to center over sing, which opens up Holloway and Nuge for top 6/middle 6 wing.
Nuge and Drai hasn’t looked as good via the eye test this season but they continue to outscore – December notwithstanding.
Lets not forget, we need to discount Drai in December and everything that happens with Drai in that month – it does not reflect the real Drai and results.
Agreed on McLeod.
I was worried about him earlier this year but he’s come back strong. He’ll never be a physical player but he is engaging more to win pucks since his return, he’s got skill and awareness, and his skating is really high end.
I like that McLeod has first round puck skills
He doesn’t have the demeanour to be a top 6 regular but I like having bottom 6 with skill so they can score when the opportunity arises
Weve had plenty that were so puck optional
Yeah he definitely looks like a 1st rounder at times.
Hopefully he can continue to develop and bring some offense to that 3rd line.
First round skill playing for bottom six money……