I’ve long ago moved on from guessing what an Oilers media avail is going to be about, at this point in my life the important things are having a close bathroom and two bottles of water in case the avail stretches past 30 minutes. Ken Holland answered many questions yesterday, the gathered media had specific but varied issues they wanted to pursue. I found Holland’s answers concise compared to his own past, and there was lots to ponder. I wanted to drill down on one area today.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ 2021 draft decision to select Xavier Bourgault over goaltending
- Lowetide: What’s the gap for Oilers between now and the 2016-17 playoff team?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Will this be another lost season?
- Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen isn’t the Oilers’ biggest summer mistake
- Lowetide: Hard-target search for the Oilers’ next starting goaltender
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- DNB: Time for the Oilers to move on from Mikko Koskinen
- Lowetide: If Oilers plan a coaching change, why stop there?
- New DNB: Exploring how the Oilers can get back on track
- Lowetide: Long December has Oilers fans looking for reasons to believe
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers fix their defence with the current personnel?
- DNB: Why getting Mike Smith back now is important to the Oilers’ present and future plans
- Lowetide: The five most effective Oilers mid-season recalls since 1979-80
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
KEN HOLLAND’S AVAIL
“The depth of this organization has to be the growth of McLeod, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Broberg, Skinner, Savoie, Bourgault, Petrov. That’s how we did it in Detroit, and when I look around, that’s how the best teams do it. It’s homegrown. It’s young players and being patient. We came here and signed Jay Woodcroft, and Woody’s done a great job in developing players down there (in Bakersfield). So I think that’s how you’ve got to get better.”
I agree. Aside from the cap having no room, NHL teams can’t spend their way to a championship as the main procurement tool. It’s too difficult.
NHL teams procure talent via the draft, trades and free agency, the last one including entry-level contracts through retirement deals.
A team needs inexpensive contracts for players who provide significant contributions to remain competitive, and to make up for the mistakes by management (and previous management).
In Edmonton, value contracts include Jesse Puljujarvi ($1,175,000); Kailer Yamamoto ($1,175,000); Evan Bouchard ($863,000 plus bonus); Ryan McLeod ($834,167) and possibly Stuart Skinner ($750,000) depending on how much he plays in the second half. That’s four or five value deals, some of them outstanding value.
A team like Tampa Bay has eight deals (or so), that’s a good goal for the Oilers.
The men who could possibly play NHL roles next season are Skinner, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov, Dylan Holloway, Ilya Konovalov.
Beyond those names are Raphael Lavoie, Mike Kesselring, Phil Kemp and then Xavier Bourgault, Matvey Petrov and others. Let’s make a chart!
There are some major names here, beginning with McDavid, Nurse and Puljujarvi, and you can see some nice pieces arriving in the early days of this decade.
I think part of Edmonton’s problem is that other teams are procuring their value deals from the Oilers’ graduating classes. Jujhar Khaira (24, 3-0-3), Jordan Oesterle (20, 0-3-3), Matt Benning (33, 0-6-6), Drake Caggiula (18, 2-3-5), Ethan Bear (26, 2-5-7) and Caleb Jones (14, 1-2-3) are all on NHL rosters at this time, that’s a lot of bleeding. Am I wrong? Let’s compare this list to the Calgary Flames, shall we?
Calgary drafted and developed several players no longer with the team: Sam Bennett (27, 11-6-17); Garnet Hathaway (32, 7-6-13); Derek Grant (33, 3-4-7); Brett Kulak (30, 1-6-7); Mark Jankowski (6, 0-1-1); Ryan Lomberg (24, 3-6-9); David Rittich (6, 3.04, .884); Jon Gillies (two games, one for NJ and one for STL).
The Flames exit list is stronger than the Oilers. Is that a reflection of having better replacements and moving on? I think the answer is ‘possibly’ but will say that Sutter likes a specific player-type and that has been a factor. Ironic that men like Lomberg left before Sutter arrived.
Either way, the Flames have lost more actual talent than Edmonton in these years. The cull looks more logical in Calgary, the feel of things is the organization bolts when payday comes on players about which they are uncertain. I don’t think Calgary would have moved Bear before this coming summer, using a simple and easy to understand example.
I think Edmonton’s problem is they’re not efficient. They worked hard to sign and develop Jordan Oesterle, who would have accepted a one-way deal for low money, but decided to keep more expensive options. Same thing happened over the summer at right defense. The cap handling last summer by Edmonton, along with the team’s continual eschewing of analytics (preferring “rudimentary analytics”) leave the organization at a disadvantage.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the pavement and begin steady talking sports. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal pops in at 10:20 and attempts to make sense of it all (Oilers division), and Joe Osborne from Odds Shark will go through the entire NFL playoff schedule this weekend and point out some opportunities. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
So, at the risk of engaging the censors, worth noting that 38 year old Joe Pavelski just scored 2 goals and 3 assists in leading the Dallas Stars to a 5-2 win over Seattle.
The win sees Dallas leapfrog Winnipeg and Edmonton in the WC standings.
Dallas still has multiple games in hand on some opponents.
There must be something in the water in San Jose. Pavelski, Thornton, Marleau.
We should be making Duncan Keith, Mike Smith and Derek Ryan spend as much time in San Jose as possible.
Just watching hi-lights of Kane and holy smokes he’s exactly what we need.
Our team is way to nice get Archie back add Kane reverse the Clockwork Orange treatment done on Kassian and Shazam.
Funny picture. Kane’s arms are 50 caliber machine guns. I remember when Gagner looked like he wanted to fight Sheahan on the bench and they both said it was nothing. Some guys just get on each other’s nerves.
Gagner didn’t take any shit from Gio either. Interesting to see Gagner has more points than Yamamoto playing less minutes and making less money.
Nice pipes
Byfuglien also had a great attitude, even if better at following the rules
Awesome pic! … though it’s entirely possible that it is taken out of context.
Buff was loved in Winnipeg … so much so that they cut him a ton of slack when he abruptly retired, the same summer they let Myers go as a UFA and traded Trouba.
He also put Dustin Penner to shame when it came to coming to training camp out of shape every year. Same story … everyone kept cutting Buff slack because he was good at hockey.
Two guys cut from similar cloth … guess it wouldn’t be a surprise if they couldn’t stand each other.
What an inane question.
It’s been clearly established that Evander Kane has a broken moral compass, however no one who visits this blog can answer that question, so why bother asking it?
As I’ve alluded to the last couple of days, this specific information is full of questions if you dig into it. There have been a lot of allegations that have not been proven, so how much of this is due to a person or persons trying to exploit an opportunity for personal gain given his reputation and the accusers’ own personal agendas.
There is also something called personal responsibility, which is a concept most adults are familiar with; it takes 2 to tango.
The court of public opinion is relentless, unforgiving and much of the time based on rumours, half-truths and personal bias. Some people come out looking like Satan under this lens, but this is dependent on the angle a viewer decides to look at a situation from.
I did the same and I agree.
He also plays on the PK, which I didn’t realize and has generated a lot of chances that way. He makes impressive plays and scores in multiple ways. Not quite like Hyman, but similar with a lot more offense.
It will be very interesting how his situation plays out.
I say the only thing holding it up is the flight he took to Canada and the mess that goes along with the Virus restrictions. I don’t think Holland would have been talking about second chances unless he had him close to being on the hook.
It should be an easy decision for Kane to sign with the Oilers. Look no further than Kassian’s second contract.
Brad Marchand going off in Boston as the Bruins lead the Habs 4-1 at the end of 2.
3 goals and counting…17-18-19
You’re a great poster with all of these updates on other teams!
Another interesting follow tonight is Jason Robertson with the Stars.
He has a goal (13) and an assist (19) as the Stars lead Seattle 3-1.
There’s a great backstory there as Robertson is one of a few NHL players of Asian descent.
His mother is Filipina and his father is of Scottish extraction.
He is 6’3″ 200 while his brother Nik, who is in the Toronto system is 5’9″ 164.
The story of how his extended family from the Philippines became rabid hockey fans is truly heartwarming.
More here:
https://www.scmp.com/sport/other-sport/article/3162315/filipino-american-nhl-star-jason-robertson-relishes-his-status
LOL
Obviously another burner account from DSF
HH is actually on a blog for every team. On the other blogs he praises the Oilers, (and all the other teams) and keeps poeple up to date on them. In this way all hockey fans everywhere are up to date on everything!
😉
And he had 3 or 4 pts last game
12 points in his last 10 games.
Interestingly that he was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017, the same years that Nick Suzuki and Kailer Yamamoto were selected.
He’s outscoring both of them this season despite his second round status.
So your point is …??? That it’s hard to project what an 18 year kid will become??? Yamamoto wasn’t a bad pick just because another player a few picks later is playing better right now.
I know the bit about Duncan Keith being instrumental in the wooing of Evander Kane, was a fake twitter account, but
Kane is from BC and is for all intents and purposes, a single dad. Keith moved here to be closer to his kids (in BC). Perhaps they have something important in common.
Wouldn’t that make VCR a contender instead of EDM and FLA?
What makes you think Kane’s kids live in Vancouver?
Kane was awarded sole custody of his kids so one would presume they would follow him wherever he lands, or stay with a caretaker in SJ or family elsewhere for the balance of the season.
Kane’s family still lives in Vancouver so I would imagine that’s one of the reasons the Canucks were on his initial trade allowance of 3 teams.
I’ve been guarded on Holloway for this season – never having the position that he couldn’t end up in the NHL at some point and make an impact but cautioning that there is an equal chance it will take some time.
What if it does happen.
I know, there are question marks on defence and in net but what about:
Kane/McDavid/Jesse
Holloway/Drai/Hyman
Foegele/Nuge/Yamamoto
Benson/McLeod/Archibald
Kass/Sceviour….. Shore/Perlini
That forward group is good enough to go deep in the playoffs.
I’ve given up on the D but if the goalies catch fire you can ride those forwards to a final 4 appearance and better.
Well, Holloway at 2LW is an unknown and a bit of a stretch at this point but you never know.
Haha, nice to see you softening.
Tippett’s comments on Holloway the other day were definitely a slight surprise.
That looks great but I wager we’d see Holloway jazzing the bottom up with some offense and possibly moving up
Which also works
Isn’t it late in the season to start talking about rookies being inserted into the lineup?
Also wan’t he injured? If so, its a flat out terrible idea.
Someone will sign Kane. It may well be the Oilers. If the Oilers were on track this year, I highly doubt Holland would have reached out to Kane’s agent, much less made public overtures about “second chances”. Instead, in large part due to Holland’s own incompetence, the Oilers are forced to consider (and maybe assume) a player with significant risk and whose presence will offend/alienate some of the fanbase. The point about whether some of the more reprehensible allegations have been proven in court is mostly immaterial. Three separate orgs have decided to move on from this player, and the latest is doing it in the first year of a lucrative and long term contract. What is proven is that this player is probably not worth the hassle. And to the extent that TB and FLA being interested suggests otherwise, those are legitimate rosters with Cup aspirations. This Oilers squad is currently outside the playoffs, and even when they were winning had glaring deficiencies.
There is only hockey related risk if its created in the contract – either with term (which won’t happen) or a cap hit that is larger than nominal.
The speculation is the rest of this year and apx $1.2MM, give or take.
Where is the risk in that contract?
If Kane “craters the locker room”, well, the locker room has material issues to start with.
Sure, there is PR risk, etc. but not on-ice related risk.
Huge upside and minimal risk. Oilers are legit cup contenders with Kane.
McDavid = Jordan
Draisaitl = Pippen
Kane = Rodman
Even if these analogies were apt (and they aren’t: Rodman was a historically great defender and rebounder and made the NBA’s all-time top 75 player list this year) the Bulls weren’t a train wreck across the rest of the roster. The Oilers are not an overnight cup contender with Kane signed. And Dave Tippett is not Phil Jackson.
Rodman was a train wreck though my goodness. I think the bulls had the one coach who could make it work. Do we have that coach?
Just need a goalie and BAM!….
A divided dressing room is the ULTIMATE risk! The rot remains and then determination of how far to cut the remainder! It doesn’t need to be let get to that state but to not recognize the possibility is foolish beyond belief.
If Evander Kane, for a short period of time, divides the dressing room and the rot remains after he is gone, well, the roster needs to be gutted.
I don’t recognize that as a realistic possibly at all.
All I’m saying is that there is a risk. It can be mitigated with proper communication and cooperation.
and that’s fine and fair and your opinion.
I just don’t agree and, in my opinion, there isn’t a real risk (with the caveat re: contract terms).
You should see the locker rooms he’s left behind
There’s on ice risk but it extends only to the length of his new contract. But 3 teams have decided Kane isn’t worth it and there’s no reason to expect it will be any different this time around.
And the blowback from the Oiler fan base will be similar to what the Habs experienced with their first round pick.
Kane is supposed to cover over all the failings of Oilers management. Perhaps it’s time to bring Oilers management up to a decent standard
What is the on-ice risk presuming the contract for the rest of the year is in the speculated rage of $1MM to $1.2MM.
Both Winnipeg and San Jose, after having Kane in their room for a period of time, signed him to big money and long term deals.
He seemed to be well worth in early in his careers with each team, no?
Like he and Tkachuk will either kill each other (and I’m betting on Kane)
or they will be like pitbulls that run into each other and go on a rampage
Florida and Tampa are two smart orgs that were both interested in Kane. Tampa has since backed off.
The fact those teams are interested tells you how good Kane is.
jimmyneutron wrote:
“Three separate orgs have decided to move on from this player, and the latest is doing it in the first year of a lucrative and long term contract.”
I’m not sure where people are getting their information from, but here is another crumb of misinformation regarding Kane.
For the record, this is year 4 of a 7 year contract.
You are correct. I misread CapFriendly and apologize for the inaccuracy.
Kane fixes a lot of mistakes
He is exactly what the Oilers lack. An aggressive prickly pear that can play and score. The glory team weren’t exactly angels you know
If the contract can be sent down the risk is minimal and the upside is enormous
Holland and Tippet need the lifeline. It will be done if the league clears it and Kane wants to
Not sure if I missed here, just got home from work, but I was listening to 92.1 at 6:10 this morning and the DJ said (among other things) that he read on Twitter that Kane was spotted in Edmonton last night. Is this from a bs twitter clickbait post?
I am skeptical that this is true, but wonder if this was reported to anyones knowledge here?
What is Garfield saying?
I hate mondays.
Sorry to poke
How do you feel that despite his ogreness he has custody of his children from a state that is not Dad custody friendly?
This is an incredibly important point.
Many of the accusations levelled against him came from a wife who was not deemed credible by the police or the courts.
And he was awarded custody.
Did Garfield see him at an Earl’s? 🙂
There is a casino attached to the arena.
Heh heh
There are a TON of tweets like that out there – all made up.
Yeah right. And next you’re gonna tell me that Elvis is actually dead. 😉
I prefer materially incapacitated.
What is Garfeild saying?
You got your big man in white
he rises to the top
right on right on right on
Interesting to see the Fayne and Pouliot names come up again. Will state again my stance re: those types of roster mistakes – generally you just live with them.
If a mitigation is mostly painless then yes, do that (examples: sending a player to the minors or using a mid-rounds pick to send a salary on) but otherwise be very careful with things like buy-outs. Those kinds of fixes tend to have a long tail.
One could argue that the Pouliot buy-out should not have happened at all and, even were one in favour of said buy-out that it came, at a minimum, one-year too early. I did the work once, do not have it now, but the upshot is that one could also argue that the Pouliot buy-out played a role in Nurse’s monster contract.
The Cap pressure was always such that it was always easier to bump an issue to the next year rather than just take the hit now.
Of course, Chiarelli has to sign Koskinen, Holland has to over-pay Kassian and then fall-in-love with Keith… it’s tiring.
By contrast, Kane would be a nice pick-up in my mind. One year and done.
The Keith contract is the Pouliot buy-out all over in my mind. Unwanted (ill inspired) Cap pressure that puts Puljujarvi at risk to an offer sheet (I know I would take a run were I another team) and Yamamoto at risk to trade (no Cap space).
Ironically, maybe the best thing that could happen to this team is to be out of the play-offs at the deadline. If that happens then, with luck, trades of Kassian, Keith, Barrie, and maybe more, open up.
Salary would have to be retained (or contracts taken back) as the case may be but that would be far preferable to compounding the issues again and again and again.
Hell, the team still needs a goalie.
9 players available for practice today. A few more come out of protocol and will be available for the game but damn.
All this time to practice but no ability to have a real practice.
Tip mentioned there was a couple of guys that could have been called up but they couldn’t due to COVID issues on the Condors.
I wonder who – Griffith didn’t play last game so I presume he is one. I wonder if either of Marody or Broberg have tested positive since last game.
So this is totally tongue in cheek of course – but I was wondering (daydreaming while at work) whether we could sign Kane to a multi-year deal for 1 million per season, while Katz quietly pays off all the people Kane owes money to with suitcases full of hush money.
Old school – like it.
Same world where Connor’s making only a few mil but has an ownership stake in the franchise that’s now worth a ton and going up with everything he does.
One of the worst things the league has done is limit the moves you can make. Contract clauses. Roster limits. It’s not good. If the Oilers wanted to run and own 6 minor pro teams and have everyone under contract they should damn we’ll be able to.
McDavid practice avail and it sounds like he wants Evander Kane here. Said something about public opinion being very important but also that they are trying to win games. Said that Holland has the support of all the players in terms of making moves.
This is *not* a Roberto Osuna situation, btw. With Kane, accusations have been tossed around online and tossed out in court. The league did an investigation on the gambling allegation and found nothing. The COVID stuff, hell, Kane can sit beside Keith and Archibald in the dressing room.
By the way, brilliant piece of work by Holland to give that presser and say, “I believe in second chances.” It was plastered on every major sports website that takes hockey seriously. That is a brilliant sales pitch, right there. Didn’t see Florida or TB doing that.
If that doesn’t get Kane’s attention, fine, but they’re putting the full court press on for him.
You may not like it, but if/when they get him, this team is much better. And this move is much, much better than a Chychrun trade, despite what Twitter is saying.
So Kane didn’t beat anyone? He’ll fit right in here.
For the record, he’s never beaten anyone in a casino either.
If Kane lands, Keith’s job really starts.
My mental gymnastics has reached the point of locker room cancer good for the room because of all the issues it will force.
Whoever downvoted this doesn’t watch enough movies. Now is the time for this plot development. Both player and team will be redeemed by the 2hr mark.
I agree
If they can’t handle a strong possibly negative personality in the group that makes them a far better forward group then the problems run a lot deeper than Kane
The Oilers have been seeking a certain type for a long time, and it hasn’t worked. I call it too vanilla
The fans can handle a jerk that kicks butt and scores
In fact the archetypal memory already has a hook for it. I would even suggest they want it. Messieresque.
I was thoroughly downvoted for suggesting JP will be a) more expensive than many think, and b) that number may be in the 7 million range.
Dom’s player card has him at 7.6 mil value this season.
JP has substantially narrowed the gap between himself and his fellow draftees — Dubois, Tkachuk, Laine. Yeah, he ain’t coming cheap.
Man, I wish original jp’s value was rising like that.
I’m also worried about Puljujarvi’s contract, though I don’t think it will be quite that high.
He’s cooled off a lot since the heater to start the season.
He’s narrowed the gap between those guys, but no one would accept Jesse straight up for one of those guys in a trade either, as all of those guys have a longer track record of putting up crooked numbers.
He’s a work in progress … he really needs to improve his shot to reach the next level.
He has cooled off. Can’t say I’m surprised (or disappointed, since it should keep his AAV lower).
He’s narrowed the gap with the others a LOT, but they definitely do all have long track records (and actually the others are all are scoring a bit better even this year).
Agree also that he probably still has more to give.
Overpaying another developing yet unfinished player is for eternal bubble franchises.
Oh, wait.
Presuming Jesse’s 2nd half of the season is similar to his first, I think he’s trending to a 4-5 year deal around $5M.
I do have concern about him digging in with advise from his agency.
That’s Evander Kane money!
.
.
~No…. seriously. that could be Evander Kane’s money~
Or like they call it in the Kane family…..Steve Wynn’s money.
JPs draft concern was scoring
He is not going to be a scorer. He would be already if so. Playing with who he does.
Extremely valuable yes. Paid correctly. I think they can do another bridge say 4?
Can someone please clarify the Kane situation. When I heard he owed big money to the eye in the sky and then the team suspended him I figured that’s what he wanted. I don’t know how the law works in California but if he claims bankruptcy and his contract is squashed the creditors and his EX can only get so much blood from a stone. He starts fresh in Edmonton or Florida on a cheap contract busts his ass and teams line-up next year for a payday that he gets to keep himself besides taxes.
Dont think he can just keep all his $$$ starting nxt yr. There are terms a person needs to meet to become “Discharged”. Until the person is discharged, creditors MAY have rights to earnings
Peter Pocklington quietly managed to keep his life style in California after he fleeced thousands of people in Alberta and claimed Bankruptcy.
He actually got caught not disclosing / hiding assets in the bankruptcy proceedings. I think he may have served jail time as a result (perjury charges, not sure on the jail time). Any way, he got caught, had to hand over his hidden assets. Today he does not live the lavish life of a multi millionaire. In fact his good friend Glenn Sather came to his financial aid 10 years ago (not sure of the year) with a gift of $1m when Peter was close to flat broke.
Although it seems he may have recovered somewhat as his public Net Worth estimates range from $1.5m to as high as $12m
As soon as the contract termination came out, I posited that the bankruptcy court may have an issue with that (and his creditors) but this is a US law issue and I’m personally not up to speed on where they are in the bankruptcy proceedings or who his creditors are.
I’m not really up to date on the entire story but it sure sounds like Kane and San Jose mutually wanted to dissolve his set for life contract. If that’s the case than he must of owed a significant amount of moolah to various identities. I think without the stiffer Covid rules in Canada Kane would already be skating on Leon’s flank.
No, that’s not the case at all.
San Jose is unilaterally terminating the contract citing material breach.
Kane, through the NHLPA grievance, is contesting that.
The contract can’t be reinstated but a settlement could, and will likely, be reached at some point.
Except he needs to play with Connor.
The new perfection line
He who will not be mentioned Connor JP
A ton of that was due to mostly everything being in his wife’s name and separate from himself and his business enterprises.
Another reminder that corporate and trust structures matter greatly from a liability and tax standpoint.
The bankruptcy laws were much more lenient in California as I remember it when I lived there but that is several decades ago.
I question Hollands decision for organizational depth.
Some may agree, some will disagree, but that’s what a great debate is about.
For example – Holland had a chance at Chychrun, but by all accounts wouldn’t part with young assets.
If Holland, as per presser, wont give up an assets unless its a deal under term, then what’s the deal with Chychrun then?
Chychrun is under a great contract, with Term, and would make the team better now, & trading him at the end of Chychrun contract would replace what you’ve lost in organizational depth.
I’m all for letting prospects develop, and they need some cheap contracts while gathering draft picks, but the Oilers are on a serious time crunch here.
The Oilers time frame is but a few years, the roster as is at least two years away from competing, if not longer.
as I said below, Holland has handcuffed the team with Barrie and Keith (not to mention others), so salary would have to go back to Arizona. Not going to happen without a vast overpay, thanks Kenny!
The acquisition cost for Chychrun is very high from accounts.
If the cost was the 1st and Broberg, sure, that is definitely a deal structure to be considered.
From accounts, the deal would “require” two more assets out, one of which would be another grade A asset (along the lines of Holloway, Bourgault, etc.).
For me, that’s too much future to give up in that deal and it seems its too much for Holland.
Price is way too high. Chychrun has an injury history and has sucked this year. He’s not even the best LHD on his team, Ghost is.
It is very likely that Holloway and Bourgeault are impact middle sixers. Savoie too. Broberg will be a top 4 D at minimum.
These sorts of deals are how you cripple your prospect pipeline. Just say no.
The ‘Yotes are reported to be looking for a Brent Burns from Minn to SJ type of return.
That’s a pretty high ask – someone will pay it, but I’d prefer that its not the Oilers.
That begs a good question actually… who’s the modern day version of 2011s Charlie Coyle, Devin Setoguchi and a late 1st round pick (28OV)?
Coyle is a player I’ve liked over the years.
If you think about it, SJS made out like bandits. Taking Chychrun off ARI’s hands for that kind of haul would be a tidy piece of business compared to some of the other proposed asks that have been floated.
What is the evidence of analytics is being used by senior management in hockey?
I saw a few posters quoting the number of employees in the office. There was a link to a press release of a fine fellow. Dellow, Tulsky are thrown out as evidence of an analytics department.
It is my experience the best people in this field are not reporting to an office to take Joe Sakic or Don Waddell through complex models (that at this point have massive error factors built in to the output). They live there they want and work the hours they want to work and are very well paid.
Evidence, aside from strong in house analytic teams in places like CAR, WAS, FLA, COL, TOR and SEA (among others)?
SAP has been a league partner for years, and firms like ClearSight and SportLogiq have tight deals with teams. Is that enough proof?
What about the effort to put chips in pucks and jerseys?
Zack Kassian once had the reputation Kane is currently enduring before the Oilers took a chance and bet on him. I would say it worked out pretty well with good value in the first contract for sure.
It seems like a unique and potentially rewarding opportunity.
No he didn’t. Zack had substance abuse issues, which fed into his mental health. Do some serious research on Kane. He is a very unsavory individual, particularly toward women.
A lot of those allegations are IG fodder and not proven in court. And besides, if you’re looking to hockey players as being exemplars of how to treat women, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
No other reclamation project in the NHL is close to Evander Kane
The Dynasty Oilers had a few unsavoury characters, or guys who made poor decisions in their life. Many other professions do as well – if we are going to move forward as a society, than we have to be willing to give people an opportunity to grow and make amends for past discretions … sometimes it works (e.g. MacT) and sometimes they break your heart. That’s life.
Times change. So does societal norms. What was acceptable, or at least taboo, back then is now being dragged into the light and the ones doing this are doing it mercilessly as it should be. When people are marginalized, abused, assaulted and worse for years with little to no recourse, is it any shock that these people want things to change?
I agree, people DO have to be given the chance to grow. But they themselves have to show they want to make amends. Kane, as it has been pointed out by multiple creditable sources, has has numerous chances and shots. And yet here we are.
We haven’t even signed him and he’s subject of an NHL investigation within the last 24hrs. If that isn’t a bellwether, I don’t know what is.
Yeah but try to show up to practice smoking cigarettes and drunk and see how that goes. Times change
So you’re saying that doesn’t happen now?
Cigarettes no
No reclamation project can play close to Evander Kane, either. He’s a legit top line winger.
Ever since the awful Mark Fayne FA signing (which may have been an attempt by Oilers management to listen to the analytics blog crowd), I have had trouble trusting “math” alone in player evaluation. Just about everyone on this blog was lauding Fayne as a talented FA Dman based on his advanced statistics.
Something was missed in that analysis and Fayne was barely an NHL level Dman when he arrived. The contract was a burden.
I think it demonstrates the challenge in trying to bring in a new way of doing something, especially new technology. If you want to see people change the way they do things, you better be sure it works well just about every time.
Also, should we really be calling it math? Nobody is solving problems with quadratic functions, derivatives, integrals or regressions. It looks like it’s just counting events on ice. That is far from “math” and more like rudimentary statistics.
I should add that I think basic statistical analysis does have a lot to offer. We have seen more advanced stats hits than misses, for sure. The real riches will go to the stats analysts that can figure out why the analysis fails sometimes and fine tunes their system to work almost every time.
Maybe a team or two already has. It seems some teams are really good at identifying pro and amateur talent in trading and drafting.
If so, I am sure they are not telling anyone.
One thing is that analytical sees past performance, not future. It seems like the NHL was busy getting faster and a guy with Fayne’s skating might’ve been okay in 2012 but not 2016. And systems/partner could also affect the exact minimum speed needed.
It also seems that most public analytic measures for defensemen are much less trustable than they are for forwards.
Chayka in Arizona proved that advanced stats isnt everything
He may not have been all good, but Chayka chayking Chychrun was smart.
Chayka just got chaking lucky on Chycrun.
Advanced stats wasn’t why Chayka resigned. It was unprofessional practices and then being stupid enough to be caught without cover.
No but he destroyed that team
Who knows if ownership didn’t give him “get me into the playoffs NOW” type orders though?
How do future teams differentiate on a guy like Makar’s performance in a lower level junior league vs other high performers who weren’t near as good in the end?
I hadn’t seen him in person at the time – but on numbers alone making the assumption he would be this good would have been risky at best.
Was there anything that is applicable for future prospects in his mold or is it down to filter by math and then test the shorter list with the eye? He met the threshold of not being entirely assist-dependent…but I’m not sure what else there might be.
An excellent question and the answer likely is stashed away in Dawson Sprigging’s desk drawer.
Based on the Avalanche recent draft history they have fully embraced the concept of the modern puck moving defenseman…thinking they don’t have to defend much if the team always has the puck.
Bowen Byram, Drew Helleson, Justin Barron and Sean Behrens all fall into that camp.
Good Lord.
Good grief.
Colorado got Sam Girard as a throw in on a trade, they got Devon Toews for two seconds and picked up Ryan Murray for peanuts.
These things are not a coincidence and they are doubling down with every D they draft.
Crediting Dawson Sprigings with everything positive the Avalanche do is more than a little silly. Particularly when it comes to amateur drafting.
Same as crediting Kenny with the players drafted by Detroit during his tenure. There’s always one person in every organization that is over-worked and under-paid and actually know what the hell is going on. Those are the people to target.
I don’t think it’s the same at all. Holland was actually a scout, then the scouting director (for 7 years) before becoming AGM and then GM. Holland was the main person responsible for a lot of the drafting that made those Detroit teams.
(in his 7 years as scouting director, Detroit drafted the following 500+ game players outside the first round: Lidstrom, Fedorov, Konstantinov, Boughner, Kozlov, York, Osgood, Knuble, Pushor, McCarty, McGillis, Holmstrom and Dandenault
Plus these 500+ game players in the first round: Sillinger, Primeau, Lapointe, Eriksson).
And as a successful former scout and scouting director, I’d give him more credit than the average GM for Detroit’s drafting while he was in the GM chair.
Sprigings on the other hand is a director of analytics. He isn’t a scout and likely isn’t directly involved with the Avs drafting.
Beyond that, my main issue with crediting Sprigings or any analytics person with draft picks is there’s barely any data on draft eligible players to analyze. There’s not a hell of a lot more that one can do with the available information than what LT already does.
Unless somebody somehow tape junior games and extract skating speed, reaction time, positioning, skating mechanics etc…
Quite technically feasible these days if enough is at stake.
Yes, a team could get some of that kind of information, but that’s basically what the columbine is for (well, and the scouts).
In terms of getting in-game data the man hours needed would be staggering. Plus many of these games aren’t even televised, in particular for leagues like the AJHL (Makar) where this discussion started.
Many junior teams videotape all their games for instructional purposes and that video would be available.
Where I live, the Oceanside Generals (junior B), have been video taping their games for more than a decade after I set it up for them.
All you need is a decent camera and a kid.
No, I was thinking about having the films analyze by AI. There are probably sports science consulting companies that write computer programs for it.
Hiring someone to take videos in non-televised games (with high definition phone camera or what have you) wouldn’tbe that big of a deal.
Hmmm, possible I suppose. Automated tracking of complex things (like hockey games) isn’t at all trivial though. Is there any evidence that this sort of thing exists and/or is used by any teams?
Girard wasn’t a throw in. Someone in Colorado knew exactly what they were after. Your point above (puck moving d-men who don’t spend time in their zone) is exactly what he was and now is. The throw in for the deal was a winger Kamenev who now plays in the KHL.
yeah this is my problem with everyone claiming they would have picked Makar #1. It was hard to tell from his quality of competition how good he actually was. I doubt even the Avs thought he was going to be this dominant.
I talked to a scout about Makar in his draft year, the scout was certain of Makar and his potential. However, I agree, picking him No. 1 out of the league he played in would be too outside the box for an NHL team. I believe you’re right.
That scout loved him, though.
Do you think teams are now much more aware of the AJHL/BCJHL – NCAA pipeline than they were previously?
They should be.
Yes, still don’t think an AJHL player will be going No. 1 overall. If I’m the WHL losing these great talents to tier 2 is alarming though.
More and more players, their parents and their agents are seeing a better path to the NHL than riding overnight buses from Swift Current to Brandon and getting a haphazard education.
Will be interesting to see which NHL team jumps first…if any.
Holland and Co. certainly were when they drafted Holloway with a rousing NHLe of, what, 8?
An excellent example of the apple cart being upended.
Some teams are paying attention.
This got me thinking about why Canadian universities don’t take sports more seriously rather than lose elite athletes to US colleges.
A conference of UBC, Simon Fraser, U of A, U of C, U of Sask and U of Manitoba could build a tremendous league by offering full scholarships and keeping our boys at home.
Too politically correct on this side of the border?
If you graph the number of games played(or career points) as a cumulative distribution function for all the player ever played in the NHL, it will look more like a Weibull or lognormal distribution (lopsided peak near zero but has no sub-zero games or points count) than a normal distribution (bell curve with symmetric tails). Mind you the real world distribution is not necessarily mathematical “nice” neither, so even Weibull or lognormal distribution also an approximation.
As most regression models deals with the mean and least square fit, they are fundamentally square peg in round holes (model assumes normal distribution with a mean and standard deviation for a lopsided distribution population).
Fixing this, however, is the easy part. Depending on the size of the error bar, this would help to get you a reasonable prediction most of the time.
On the other hand, to find a top player requires a model that identifies the 99th (or so) percentile. By definition you have fewer data points to work with (which accompanies more noise).
You can’t judge an Einstein by credentials kind of thing.
I believe in analytics. I also believe you still have to do the eye test. Makar is a driver of the play. When he has the puck it moves and things happen. Analytics doesn’t capture this as well. Unless you count the times you are jumping off your seat.
Zone exits, zone entires and chances off the rush capture this very well.
Taylor Hall was notorious for zone exit and entry and loss the puck.
If you watch Makar’s latest highlight goal it would not have fallen into any of your categories.
Jason Gregor tweeted today that Makar should be in consideration for the Norris and the Hart.
I agree. Brilliant player and fun to watch his run this season.
The Devils and Flyers really shit the bed in 2017.
Good Ol Hindsight. Just follow Mckenzies list except all the times it’s wrong off course
https://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-draft-ranking-top-93-and-honourable-mentions-1.778987/kchow-template-100-1.778987
this is quite a player card, Dom has him at Draisaitl and Mackinnon level value.
he’s like Karlsson, except good defensively.
I’ll go against the grain here and say that I liked Holland’s conference.
As LT said, he is correct in saying depth must be built from within. Music to my ears that he isn’t trading young guys and picks. I don’t think — based on his comments — it is lost on him that Jones and Bear are having success elsewhere. That 2nd/3rd rounder for Keith also hurts.
Lots of people want Chychrun in for Broberg + 1st + other high end prospect.
Question: Would you trade Bouchard straight up for Chychrun? I wouldn’t. How about last year’s Bouchard for Chychrun? This is why this game is so silly. You don’t know what Broberg is, and one thing is for sure: he is not taking 5 years to get here. He will be around to help McDrai.
Tipp/Playfair are batting 0/4 when it comes to how they assessed Bear, Jones, Barrie, and Bouchard last season. Keith has been much better as of late, but for all their (Tipp/Playfair) bluster, Holland made the moves they wanted and the defence still sucks.
I don’t think that’s lost on Holland either. The whole quote on bring the young guys up, then people get tired of young guys, then they get traded…I don’t know that that’s a shot across the bow at just fans and media. I think that’s a real shot at the coaching.
Holland has made tons of stupid moves in the last 10 years and I’m no fan of him, but he has always been loathe to move on from young players. Good to know that the bleeding of youth will stop.
But Bouchard now has performed at the NHL level. Chychrun has for years. He is in his prime, Broberg may never get there.
You could run Chychrun-Bouchard for 10 years if you wanted to. The other hugely valuable thing is his contract.
It’s basically getting the Klefbom contract all over again, just this time we have to pay for it.
I’d run Broberg and the 1st and a decent prospect easily for Chychrun, but then I’d be playing Skinner and Marody like some kind of crazed lunatic too.
Bouchard is a better NHL player this year than Chychrun, who has struggled. Last year Bouchard was “not an NHLer”, not based on his play but based on Tippett/Playfair.
Again, this is why this game is so dangerous. Holland is absolutely correct to be cautious here.
Chychrun’s “value” contract is a myth given the high asset price required to acquire him. He’s not Klefbom, because Klefbom was homegrown and then signed to that sweetheart deal. This is going back to what LT was saying about developing depth from within.
Broberg’s velocity of improvement is impressive. He was always a “projectable” pick.
Another point: Nurse is your top LHD, and first unit PP units go to him, Barrie, Bouchard. Chychrun’s counting numbers will never be very pretty over here.
Chychrun makes more sense for a team completely lacking a 1 LHD or for a team lacking a prospect of Broberg’s calibre and proximity to the NHL.
I think Chychrun plays on a shite team and got Norris votes last year on a shite team.
The value contract is not a myth because players need to be signed and resigned all the time. You would inherit a player who is locked in at $4.6m for 3 more years.
Bouchard is also playing with Nurse, and I love Bouchard.
Chychrun is having a crap year, absolutely he is. I had him on my fantasy team ha ha ha.
It’s not realistic to me more because of Holland’s idiotic cap hits for Keith and Barrie, but I would definitely spend the assets.
Like LMHF#1, I’m inclined to spend on prospects when you have a real window, particularly from an area of strength like LHD.
You want to slow play. I don’t we can afford to anymore, and Chychrun is far more established than either Bouchard and definitely Broberg.
Then you run
Nurse – Bouchard
Chychrun – Barrie/Ceci
Keith – Ceci/Barrie
and I think the D is stronger. When Keith retires after next year, then whoever is left of Lagesson, Niemelainen, Samourukov will be your 3LHD.
That’s very fair. But given Chychrun’s injury history, and those injuries are nasty, would you still take that risk?
May i ask what leads to the position that Jones is having success? He seems to be the 6th/7th d-man on a poor defensive team and is getting crushed in most metrics, including relative metrics.
His fancies are not as good now but he was chugging along at a 60+ goal share not long ago. Still around 45%.
Let’s not forget that he’s cheap, better than the third pairing options here, and that the 3rd round pick and Keith’s cap hit could have been used to find another LHD.
Some of those may be true but aren’t relevant to him having a successful season and I would posit that he is not.
Turris added to Covid-protocol today.
Spector is way off base on his assessment of the Kane situation.
First, let’s acknowledge the glaring omission. Golden boy Duncan Keith — whom Spec has never criticized — was around for the sexual assault in the Blackhawks org, part of the leadership core, and decided to not even participate in the investigation. Brent Sopel is on record as saying everyone knew, and Keith still didn’t come out with the truth. If you’re fine with Keith on moral grounds and against Kane, you’re a hypocrite.
Second, there is being a jerk and there is breaking the law. There are many serious allegations surrounding Kane, but several or all have not stood up to scrutiny in court or with respect to league investigation. If you want to trod down the path of designating guilt on the basis of Instagram posts, be my guest, I’ll stick with that institution (the courts) that has been around for hundreds of years.
The COVID stuff is concerning, but there were plenty of Keith supporters here (still are), and the guy showed up late to training camp because of concerns relating to the vaccine. That received…nary a mention in the media? Well, it was mentioned, but Keith was regarded as a patron saint who was exercising due caution. Look, I profoundly disagree with the perspective of these players, but both Keith and Kane are vaccinated now. Again, if you want to pick and choose between Kane and Keith, there is some hypocrisy there.
Third, Spec brought up all kinds of examples of guys who got second chances. Kassian, MacTavish, etc. His point seems to be…but these other guys are good people! Kane is bad! The truth is — as is often the case when Spector argues anything — he is inconsistent and frequently wrong. Even if he did have the power to judge morality, I wouldn’t trust him. He’s no judge, and when it comes to assessing situations sans bias he almost always fails to do so. The man critiques Oilers fans for running players out of town while he is in the midst of…running players out of town. Check out his record; it sucks.
Finally, Kane is flat out good. He can help you now, and he can help a lot. There was plenty of support for terrible moves in these parts this summer; if you supported those then surely you can support escaping that jungle of stupidity now.
You could probably use the first four words correctly after every thing he writes or says.
Well said Bing. Great post and i agree completely. .
Spector’s article on Kane reads like a drunken rant rather than a professional journalist.
Holy Crap.
on the ice right now!
Hyman McLeod JP
Please Baby Jesus. So let it be written. So let it be done!
That means Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto too?
The Bakersfield Condors announced a series of roster transactions:
McLeod, 25, is the older brother of current Oilers and former Condors forward Ryan McLeod. He joins the team from the Cincinnati Cyclones (ECHL) where he posted 17 points (9g-8a) in 30 games.
There is a pause in the Kane saga as the NHL investigates the circumstances surrounding his trip across the Canadian border while in Covid protocol.
He had a charity tennis match against Novak.
THE LEAGUE (sounds more ominous in caps) got wind that Kane might be headed to Edmonton.
Other Owners alert Bettman (in the Bett Cave, via the Bett Phone,) that the Oilers could derive undeserved advantage here.
Bettmen directs henchmen to release a statement:
“Read my lips; Not gonna happen; Wouldn’t be prudent”
it’s alright, it’s alright, all right. She moves in mysterious ways
Per Jim Matheson:
Oiler winger Josh Archibald, who found out he had inflamed heart muscle at camp, was cleared in late December for exercising with heart monitor until middle of this month. Doctors will see how he gets through that test, and Oilers will go from there. He was unvaxxed at camp.
I am personally hoping Josh comes back. I like the kid and the player.
But, he won’t move the needle ie the bloodbath the bottom 6 has been taking.
( yes, some improvement in the last few games)
Too bad, if he had been vaccinated, better chance he wouldn’t have suffered myocarditis.
I hope he’s able to make a go of it, always been a fan of him and this player type in general.
You have no idea in the case of any given individual whether this statement is true or not. No one does.
Archibald should spell the end of Turris.
Should it be leaked that Kane has chosen Edmonton, The League will find a way to F#CK the Oilers.
#NewRules.
Like bringing in criminal charges as reported by HH so that he cannot be signed by Edmonton? 🙂
Well, McCurdy alerted the NHL on LT’s show this morning that Kane should be suspended for his most recent breach of the AHL Covid Protocols so it looks like that may happen…..
How can he be suspended for something that is being grieved by the NHLPA?
San Jose terminated his contract because they say Kane breached protocols. The NHL is stuck on San Jose’s side like the NHLPA is stuck on Kane’s side.
The NHL has to investigate to support their side of the arbitration case. But how can they suspend Kane for something that is being grieved. If Kane wins they arbitration, then he will gain more from the what would then be an unjust suspension.
The NHLPA is grieving the unilateral terminating of the contract due to breach.
I believe the NHL is looking in to additional game suspensions due to this, now second, breach of Covid-policies.
If a suspension is labelled, the NHLPA can appeal that as well.
Pronman ranks the top under 23 players.
https://theathletic.com/3060357/2022/01/12/ranking-the-best-under-23-nhl-players-who-tops-the-list-andrei-svechnikov-or-jack-hughes/?source=user_shared_article
This was a good article.
That being said, Pronman does not watch all these players that closely. He rates Bouchard’s puck skills as below average. What?
I like Pronman.
But, I really really don’t agree with his Bouchard opinion.
I don’t really understand where he is coming from even.
The kid has D zone issues for sure…but this kid is an offensive dynamo.
He has his takes and is very hard to move off of them once formed.
This is true of like 95% of human beings mind you.
He’s always a good read, IMO, and it’s nice to have different opinions like his.
I don’t always agree with his takes on Oiler prospects but I’m in love with them all so there’s that.
Oh, I agree – I love a diversity of opinions and, again, I like Pronman.
HH told me in the summer that Pronman has watched Bouchard more times than Oilers fans have so his opinion is more accurate. Even though that is basically impossible.
Wheeler is the best except if any of his work contains pro oiler or anti-(insert newest bandwagon team here) level work.
Pronnan the same.
It’s all about narrative pushing. I don’t know why anyone gets riled up by it. Narrative not changing. Sometimes there are interesting articles regardless of narrative drive behind selection.
How have you determined how much he watches players?
Math. There is only so much time for watching hockey. He is watching prospects, predominantly. So how would he have time to watch Bouchard more than Oilers fans who have watched all of his AHL and NHL minutes? It’s not possible.
I was referring to Pronman having watched Bouchard from a far younger age than Oiler fans have.
How many games Bouchard played in the OHL did you watch?
I’m guessing the answer is zero.
While I agree there will now likely be a change in that ratio, Pronman also has access to video and analytics while he does his work.
Suggesting he’s just throwing darts at a board certainly does him disservice considering his long resume as a prospect analyst.
While you can certainly disagree with his opinion, dismissing it out of hand because you don’t know his methodology is not fair to him.
Hes very stubborn and hes never like Bouchard.
But i dont have a problem with his ranking. Top of the lineup player is a good place to be
Pronman made his remarks about Bouchard’s puck moving skills after his second professional year. So either he based his opinion off of previous junior viewings (hi Griffen Reinhart!) or very limited viewings of his professional games.
It doesn’t really matter how much if that’s his opinion of Bouchard.
He’s clearly telling the class how little he watches Bouchard currently, it doesn’t line up at all with what he’s preaching.
He may have watched more Bouchard as a youngster but he’s definitely watched zero Bouchard in the NHL.
“Drysdale Puck Skills : Below average.
He’s very smart player with the puck”
HMMMMMM
Did you see your boy Ty Dellandrea at 130
Did you see Broberg is ranked the 29th defenseman?
Zegras #4 overall.
Yeah I’m on record on draft day that I would have chose Zegras and havent changed my mind
Advanced analytics keeps you out of trouble until it doesn’t. More or less like rudimentary analytics.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/twitter-reacts-to-edmonton-oilers-signing-of-mark-fayne-and-benoit-pouliot-today-is-about-over-spending
Oiler blogger Tyler Dellow mc79hockey @mc79hockey
This Pouliot deal features sensible money. He’s a classic Oiler from the 96-06 period: a “bust” who can play. This is stunning
Globe and Mail hockey writer James Mirtle @mirtle
Some real Corsi Hockey League signings now. Ehrhoff, Fayne and Pouliot all paid in part due to possession games as teams look for this more.
Blogger Michael Parkatti @mparkatti
I do like Pouliot signing. His, along with J Jokinen’s do underline how buying low could be so powerful. Were spare parts 1 year ago.
I’ve always argued, it’s not the math, it’s the conclusions humans (people) sometimes (often times?) draw in relation to the math.
There was a time when one would have been forgiven for thinking CORSI must have been referenced somewhere in the Bible.
We’ve come a long way and most analysts are more guarded when drawing conclusions.
But we still have a ways to go.
#EvolutionNotRevolution
Puts the “Chiarelli fired the Edmonton analytics department” thing into perspective.
The world is complex. I remain unconvinced that one could build a sufficiently complex model without requiring arbitrary assumptions and caveats. It will probably take an ANN type black box.
The use of analytics isn’t nearly as nebulous as you’re implying though I will concede at the time Fayne and Pouliout, people were overzealous on the use of Corsi to ostensibly see who was driving possession.
As much as we laugh at that now, there were some successes with this methodology. Anton Stralman was an unheralded player for the Rangers that analysts using Corsi data identified.
Defensemen are notoriously difficult to evaluate with publicly available data.
Fayne was a clear miss. Jersey had weird metrics back in those days. Dellow used to comment that they were like a team playing a different game. Also, the Oilers underestimated how much Andy Greene was zooming Fayne. Further, he obviously had slow boots which is why any team is probably going to pair scouting with analytics.
Honestly, you should dig up and read some of Tulsky’s old articles.
Basically, Tulsky has asked and used his analytical approach to answer any question he’s ever thought of.
When’s the optimal time to pull your goalie?
When do forwards peak and decline in the NHL?
How do you project your end of season standing points by your team’s goal differential?
Which NHL players age better? (shooter, passer, sniper?)
How do you factor age into NHL contract decisions?
What is the value of an NHL draft pick.
He’s spent more time blogging about player aging that Holland has ever spent contemplating the impacts of player age on performance.
In short, if Tulsky is on your management team, and he has a voice that’s listened to, I can’t imagine many of the litany of Oiler transactional mistakes would have been made.
The problem is you won’t know if analytics is in its infancy or childhood or adolescent or fully grown until after the fact. You either embrace it, or you don’t.
No question having a bright mind in the room asking “is this really a good idea guys” helps though. Like everything else, the challenge is to identify Einstein and listen, while pass over the wannabes, and that itself is no smaller task than identifying good players to begin with.
There is a fine line between beating the market to exploit inefficiency versus trying to become the smartest guy in the room.
what was wrong with the Pouliot signing?
Way too much term. The guy had signed five consecutive one-year deals until the Oilers gave him a five year contract. And then bought him out….
Like Kris Russell, gets a training camp invite one year, and then a 4 year deal. Plus any number of depth wingers who had to get 2 year deals
The Russell deal was a classic unforced error by Chiarelli.
After he got hurt.
Generally agree about the term, however, Oilers were at point where they had to overpay in dollars or term or both to land viable options.
In a perfect world, yeah you could argue about the term for sure.
Still the Oilers were an absolute tire fire of an organization in 2014. They had to give dollars and term for free agents.
It wasn’t a great value either in terms of term or cap, but he was a useful player for the first two years and a decent vet for the third. He played in the NHL for four of the five years (albeit after being bought out prior to the last year). Still that’s not bad for a free agent signing. There are many worse out there (Eriksson, Neal, Lucic).
It was analytics in its infancy, but yeah he started his first season on the Oilers at age 28 and that’s what you get with forwards. Aging is not kind to most NHL forwards.
Let’s see how the last 4 years on the Hyman and Nuge contracts look down the road.
Bill Daly was on Inside Sports with Reid Wilkins last night. Revised schedule should be released next week. Most games made up during the former Olympic break.
As of now, no need to extend the season but that will be contingent on volume of continued postponement, if any.
We have a practice today……how exciting.
Jeff Marek reporting the Oilers still in on Kane.
Tampa had interest but has backed off but Florida still in the game.
Kenny can’t trade his 2nd or 3rd – doesn’t have a 4th.
Said he won’t trade the 1st or a prospect for a rental.
This Kane move looks to be his only lever he has left.
Cap issues around the league make a genuine hockey trade very tough.
Hadn’t occurred to me before, but I guess he could still trade the 2nd, conditionally.
If the Oilers do make the finals and have to give the Hawks the 2nd, the receiving team gets the 2023 2nd instead.
True.
Might just make is simpler to trade the 2023 – 2nd round pick then.
That would be simpler, but I think picks happening sooner would have slightly higher value (everyone’s in a hurry after all).
More importantly, this years 2nd likely is still available as an asset to trade.
Funk to funky. The Tampa Bay Lightning was actually a comparison I was toying with yesterday. Their trade history makes for interesting reading:
https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/lightning
They basically traded a 1st for Barclay Goodrow and traded him away for a 7th when it was time for him to get paid.
It reads as a masterclass of cap management (Kucherov aside). Eating Gaborik’s and Seabrook’s contracts? Inspired. If the Keith deal was structured that Keith never played a game for us and we used that dead cap, then that deal would have been much mire palatable.
Good teams don’t copy others or rely on past successes – they innovate.
https://theathletic.com/3062657/2022/01/12/nhl-player-cards-edmonton-oilers/
https://theathletic.com/3050949/2022/01/12/introducing-our-nhl-player-cards/
Fun little tool by Dom – player cards for every NHL team.
Top line is the projection for this season, the bottom line is what they’ve done in 2021-22 so far.
If I’m reading these correctly, Bison King and McLeod are the only regular forwards outperforming their projections.
Nurse and Bouchard are the only regular D outperforming their projections.
Smith hasn’t played enough, and Koskinen is underperforming.
Keith too.
Oilersnation reported that Stalock is attempting a come back this week with Bakersfield. He was our third stringer in theory. They’ll still give reps to Skinner as I’m convinced if they sign Kane that Kosk will be sent down with either Turris or perlini. Stalock is a cheap option if he gets his game back. The Sun reported Archibald might on the mend too. Things are about to get interesting in Oil Country
Only if you think Archibald and Stalock move the needle here.
Adding Kane and Archibald and subtracting Turris and one of Shore, Sceviour, Perlini, Benson would be a massive boost.
Yes, I know, Archie’s 5 on 5 numbers aren’t great but I took a look yesterday and, over the last two years, when he wasn’t moonlighting with McDavid he was playing almost exclusively with Khaira or Sheahan……
Love Archie but we have to recognize the fact that he hasn’t even completed a rigorous workout in a long time. There’s no way he’s anywhere close to being in game shape, let alone mid-season form.
I think best-case scenario he’s an injury replacement for the playoffs.
Oh, I agree.
“I think part of Edmonton’s problem is that other teams are procuring their value deals from the Oilers’ graduating classes…..I think Edmonton’s problem is they’re not efficient. ”
.
.
My favorite line from the presser.
“Play the kids, Play the kids, Play the kids, Play the kids, Play the kids, Play the kids”
“And then when the kids make mistakes; We don’t like the kids, We don’t like the kids, We don’t like the kids; …. Get different kids.”
“And the kids go elsewhere and they have success that you thought they were going to have here”
#Kenny..LT…LT…Kenny (Lettermen reference)
My meaning here ^ is great minds think alike, and these lines from Holland must make you feel good at least about this aspect of Hollands modus operandi
I love words and wordplay. Whenever I read or hear “great minds think alike”, I think of the rest of the phrase, “but fools seldom differ”.
Thomes Paine had the best rebuttal: “I do not believe that any two men, on what are called doctrinal points, think alike who think at all. It is only those who have not thought that appear to agree.”
He seems to suggest that intellectual argument is the natural condition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohDB5gbtaEQ
I concur with Thomas Paine.
I would add, beware the herd mentality.
Kenny is off on this one. If any franchise fanbase has patience for kids, it’s ours.
It is like how the Montreal Expos were near the end. They became the farm team for MLB
With respect, Holland, go to hell about “this is how we did it in Detroit”.
You mean, signing a bunch of Russian all-time HOFers when there was no cap?
You mean, luck into an all-time HOF defenceman with a 3rd round pick, Fedorov with a 4th round pick, and Konstantinov with an 11th (!!!) round pick in one draft?
That’s just good scouting.
Weebo on twitter had a fantastic thread on Holland’s moves and signings over the last decade yesterday and it really shows Holland’s history. It’s just facts, that’s the best part. No room for argument, I guess you can argue with his descriptors but the signings are pure fact.
https://twitter.com/OilersPain/status/1480995428493524992
2012 Signed 37-year-old Bertuzzi to a (2 year, $4M) Bert plays 66 games total, retires Signed Tootoo (3-years), Samuelsson (2-years, 35+) and Carlo Colaiacovo (2-years). Samuelsson plays 30 more NHL games total. Tootoo and Colaiacovo both get bought out
2013 Two hilariously bad big splashes Signed Stephen Weiss, 5 years, $24.5M (bought out after 2 seasons and 11 goals total) Signed Jonathan Ericsson 6 years, $25.5M (finished contract in the AHL)
2014 Signed G Jonas Gustavsson for 1 year, $1.85M. Played 7 games Signed Dan Cleary to a 35+ contract. $1.5M plus $1M in performance bonuses. Dan plays 17 games, his last in the NHL Traded Patrick Eaves, Calle Jarnkork, and a 2nd for 21 games of 34-year-old David Legwand
2015 (1/2) Signed 35-year old Brad Richard for $4M. Richards plays his final 68 NHL games on this contract (28 big points) Signed declining Mike great for 3-years and $18M Signed Abdelkader to 7-years, $29.75M. Since bought out by Yzerman
2015 (2/2) A one-way for Dan Cleary. AGAIN. 1 year, $950k. Played 35 AHL games, didn’t touch the NHL Traded the signing rights to Mattias Janmark plus a 2nd round pick (that turned into Roope Hintz) for the last 11 games of Erik Cole’s NHL career
2016 Went on a hilariously bad spending spree Darren Helm, 5 years, $19.25M Frans Nielson, 6 years, $31.5M (bought out by Yzerman) Danny DeKeyser, 6 years, $30M (yikes) Moved back from the 16th draft spot (Chychrun) to 20th (Cholowski) to offload Datsyuk’s contract
2017 Signed Trevor Daley, 3-years, $9.5M. Managed 44 games in year 2 and 43 in year 3. All at replacement level or lower. Retired Didn’t do a whole lot else
2018 Tacked on 2 more years of Mike Green’s decline at $5.275M per year. Hilariously, Green finishes that contract off with 2 games in Edmonton Paid $3M for the last 64 games of Thomas Vanek’s career Sold some assets to start the rebuild of the roster he destroyed
2019 Leaves DET a parting gift: A $5.1M contract for Jimmy Howard to play 27 more games for the franchise, his last in the NHL, .882 SV% Comes to Edmonton and picks away at the fringes but still manages to overpay Chiasson and Khaira
2020 Signed Kassian to a 4-year, $12.8M extension Bridged Nurse to set up the atrocious next contract Signed Kyle Turris for 2 years and $1.65M Traded a 4th for 2 games of Mike Green Traded 2 2nds for 13 games of Anthanasiou
2021 Executes the final step of botching Nurse by extending him for 8 years, $74M Signed Tyson Barrie for 3 years, $13.5M Extended Koekkoek & Shore for 2-years each for some reason Traded Jones and a pick for Duncan Keith at full cap hit Traded Ethan Bear for Foegele
tl;dr, Holland really likes to sign and overpay old and uninspiring players.
I would assume Detroit didn’t have the same negative factors as Edmonton in terms of signing players.
Was it just the”this is how we did it in Detroit ” part that bugged you? Or were you bugged by the rest of the answer where he wasn’t going to trade a prospect for a rental?
the short story is: we can’t really afford a rental because he’s traded away so many picks already to no avail, and we’re up against the cap regardless.
Every successful organization develops their young players, but his response of “it has to come through the locker room” is half because he has tied us up with ill-advised contracts.
I don’t think Hollland is the architect of greatness in Detroit that everyone seems to think he is, and even if he was at one point, his last decade has been terrible.
Yeah, that’s an absolutely atrocious series of transactions.
We were told by the Holland apologists (when the Oilers hired him) that there were mitigating factors at the tail end of his days with ownership and trying to keep the window open.
Thanks for this. What a platter of shit.
Holland is right, the answer is going to come from within (if there is ever an answer).
Holland does not know how to evaluate NHL talent/sign contracts in the cap era.
They had their opportunity to get the right Detroit guy. And at the right time too.
It was Jim Nill.
Truth Bomb.
‘Bleeding talent’ implies it isn’t being adequately replaced. I would position that, outside of Bear, the rest of those players were not moving the needle and we had better/similar options.
We certainly ‘move on’ from players we have invested in with regularly.
But there is a risk of holding on too long as well. Khaira is a good example of a player that we all wanted to see succeed/given every chance. But he is a mediocre hockey player.
What we haven’t done recently is boast successful reclamation projects. We need to convert a young castaway or two into good contributors to offset our own misses. This is where we fall short.
I agree 100%.
You could still have a team with
DRAKE CAGGULIA
J.J. KHAIRA
OESTERLE
BENNING
JONES
BEAR
Is that the makings of a solid NHL team?
You get rid of tweeners. Somwyimes it burns you but in this case I would say, edm has not be burned moving those players.
Not every prospect is going to make the NHL. Not every player the team develops, will play for Edm.
EVERY ORGANIZATION HAS A SIMILIAR LIST
Love Bobby Clarke dropping Bombs on Ron Hextall……in a podcast.
Apparently, nobody in the flyers org. wanted to select Nolan Patrick.
The Flyers scouts wanted Makar…Oh my.
Heiskanen was the scouts preference, according to a Philly source after the Clarke interview.
Clarke has trouble with names of first round picks. Remember when he was picking Claude Giroux.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zmx415L4h8
I don’t know why Clarke all these years later has to tear down Hextall. After all it was Hextall that had to clean up Clarke’s mess. Nolan Patrick was a highly rated pick and probably was #1 on most teams draft boards like Yakapov, Daigle, maybe Stefan were…I don’t get trashing him now vs not trashing Hextall was let go in real time. It would have been more meaningful then…I’ll grab some popcorn and wait for Hextalls response lol 😂
I think the answer to the question is IN the question: “I don’t know why Clarke all these years later has to tear down Hextall. After all it was Hextall that had to clean up Clarke’s mess.
Good point and Clarke has sour grapes as a result
Odd. But this further lends credence to the stories about a massive civil war that was taking place during Hextall’s tenure there.
It was bitter then. Bitter now.
That Nolan Patrick pick will hurt theme for at least 8 years
Well he is working for enemy #1. Sounds like Hextall wasn’t much of a team guy as for Bobby Clarke he was all about the team one of the best Captains ever.
Hextall’s drafting was sort of bad in Philly. He had the old guard scouts and I don’t think he was allowed to bring in his own guys.
The problem is that the old guard scouts were really good scouts, if one looks at the track record.
The problem in Philly was that Ed Snyder and Bobby Clarke were a dysfunctional top like Wirtz and Pulford, and inevitably effed up all the good work their scouts were doing anyways.
The Clarke old guard is now fighting for their survival as the Roberts clan are now the owners, and Clarke is trying to survive by blaming Hextall for everything that is wrong.
This is a case whether for the newish owners should FIRE THEM ALL, just to be sure.
A Daryl Katz Yakupov moment?
Makes you wonder….the only difference is all of the picks around Nolan -are studs.
Heiskenen, Petterson, Makar
Not sure any of the Yakupov draft mates turned out…Murray, Galchenyk, Reinhart
Agreed. But our Scouts wanted Murray
It is 2022 now -so we can start to look past Kenny’s summer and look forward to next year.
If Kenny can shed salary ( Koskinen, Barrie, Kassian, Keith or some combo) this summer – our future still looks good.
A team with Shore, Turris, Benson, etc, etc, was never going to seriously compete for the cup.
Again, though, I don’t really trust Kenny not to once again trade future assets to take a run or ensure the team limps/scratches/crawls into the playoffs.
(Keith aside (we wait) ) I think Kenny had a very food summer, and it was part one of building out his vision of a contender. Part two comes this summer. imo
People around here don’t like Spector – but he wrote a great article on Kenny and his “2nd chance” for Kane.
Very good article pointing out our GM’s logic.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/holland-leaves-lots-desired-surrounding-oilers-pursuit-evander-kane/
I do quibble with his assertion that it’s been 2+ seasons of improvement, other than this 6 week bobble. It’s been 2+seasons of treading water.
Agreed.
I hear what you’re saying, but removing the last 5 weeks Spector’s assertion is true (I have not read the article yet btw).
Points%
19-20 .585
20-21 .643
21-22 .762
(this is up to Dec 1st for 21-22)
Even the 5v5 GF% improved from year 1 to year 2, before falling back slightly this season (through Dec 1st).
5v5 GF%
19-20 47.3%
20-21 49.8%
21-22 48.9%
For reference in 18-19 the Oilers had a .482 Points% and a 45.1% 5v5 GF% (plus shit special teams).
Wow, MacTavish killed somebody. He killed somebody while he was driving drunk. But he deserves a second chance, and Kane doesn’t? Okay then.
You count like Kenny?
You legitimately feel this would be Evander Kane’s ” 2nd chance”?
This is a weak take.
He served his debt to society after a year in jail. MacT felt remorse. Met with the family, who forgave him.
Kane is convinced of his own hubris, forever the victim.
The second paragraph…Carrying that water like a good little flack.
Trained seals. The lot of them. And they know it. Even the ones who awkwardly ask “tougher questions”.
I didn’t care for Spector’s article at all. He forgot to point out that Kane was re-signed by SJ and there were no complaints until this past year. He also played 6 years in the Jets/Thrashers organization and 3 years on Buffalo. If the guy was so toxic, he would have been traded earlier and/or not re-signed. Also, some of the allegations made against him by his wife (I.e. gambling on his own team’s games) were proven false. How many other allegations/rumors are false? Spector clearly hates Kane and his bias affected the quality of the article, imo.
No complaints until this past year?
I can’t find any mention of his teammates not wanting him back on the team previous to this offseason. Even after the Buff incident, no Jets player said that they no longer want him in the locker room.
You must have forgotten about the row between he and Buff. And that Kane asked Chevy for a trade every off season until it finally happened.
Yeah, but to me that’s pretty minor stuff between him and Byfuglien. And it was Kane who asked for the trade, not the Jets who wanted him gone.
I don’t get the line of reasoning that says, “I’d take Kane at $1m or less”
This is not logical imo.
The primary decision point is “Do we want Kane at all”.
Once that is decided (assuming in this case the answer is yes) then you scratch together every last penny you’ve got to make it happen. Which in Ken Holland’s place is not a lot of pennies.
But if Holland has $2.3 million in cap space, and that’s what it takes to land Kane. You do it!
No way No how are you going to improve the team more by spending that $2.3 elsewhere.
#RyanSmythRedux
That’s foolish imo
Kane is clearly a risk.
He needs to be able to be waived to BAK for no cap penalty, or have an AAV that’s too tempting for another team to not make a claim.
Giving Kane all the change in the piggy bank means nothing else left for improvement elsewhere.
Insult aside.
What $2.3 improvement elsewhere is anywhere near the magnitude of Evander Kane???
If you decide that Kane is a good idea. ( < This is the primary decision point) and you later find out that Kenny lost Kane to the Calgary Flames by $700k or $1m… (pro-rated across 4 months) you going to be ok with that?
I think perhaps, that you and I view the level of risk differently, which is fair.
You keep forgetting the risk that you are taking on as stated above! Market value is not necessarily what the player is asking but value of the player taking in the costs associated due the risk!
That’s a fair argument in relation to cost vs risk.
I’m not forgetting anything.
My calculus says the potential reward > than the risk even at $2.3m
Your mileage may vary.
I am one that wants Kane. Given the “risk”, I want this top line player on a 4th line salary that can be buried if the risk comes to fruition.
The point here is a great on-ice fit but at a major value given the risks.
Now, if Holland has to go up to, say $1.5MM to “outbid” another team, sure, I’ll take the nominal risk over the fully buryable amount.
Listening to Dreger this morning, its looking like the AAV will indeed be in the very low range – up to the likes of $1.1MM or $1.2MM.
Lets make this happen – presuming his upcoming suspension will only be for 5 games or less.
Agreed.
But, dollars wise, it’s sort of like giving up on Smyth over couple of hundred K … No?
You add risk by paying more than Tampa (tax and weather-adjusted).
Have your base offer, and say we are willing to match Tampa’s offer plus a bit for taxes and weather. And say, we believe we are a better situation for Kane to showcase himself.
That we don’t know the actual number at this point is the key.
If he could be had for (say) $1.5MM prorated, why pay $2.3MM? It would be foolish to overpay and leave money on the table and be able to upgrade the roster elsewhere.
We don’t have to look too far back for a good example. Kenny bowed out when the ask from Markstrom was too much… Good move or poor?
The Oilers don’t have a lot to lose at this point, which reduces the risk dramatically. If they were a 1st place team, firing on all cylinders, then they would be taking more risk bringing him onto the team. This is a low risk acquisition from my perspective.
It is as dumb to overpay for a call option as it is to overpay for a stock.
I want to offer no more than 10% more than Tampa (to compensate for the weather and taxes). You want Kane to choose Edmonton because it is a better opportunity, not because he can earn more money.
Agreed. But with Kane, you’re not just long a call, you’re also short a put. How would a Kane signing affect the Oilers reputation among our female fans? I’d recommend reading Bruce McCurdy’s article today if you haven’t already.
Any old-privileged-cis-white-male at a university has to burnish their woke credentials. When are the old white guys going to actually atone for their guilt and retire, instead of taking shots at a disadvantaged BIPOC persons whose alleged “sins” are merely a product of our privileged racist cis white patriarchy.
MacT, Kassian, Keith vs Kane,
And exiling Bear and Jones.
It seems like Bruce and his friends are selective about their intersectionalities.
Moral ambiguity can be tricky.
Should/can anyone buy/listen to Eric Clapton music anymore?
Should the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have traded for Chris Pronger?
Kane is only going to be here for the balance of 2022 imo.
I’m not willing to split hairs over the dollar amount.
When making these decisions, I believe you need to ask, if I split hairs and loose out by $100k. am I willing to live with the outcome.
Kenny’s not spending his available deadline cap on anything more valuable to the Oilers than Evander Kane.
Losing out on Kane would be akin to trading Eberle for Strome and $3m in cap space and then not using the $3m
Benson is a prime example. They spend a second round pick on him, develop him in the minors and then play the likes of Shore, Turris, Perlini and Sceviour ahead of him. That’s just nuts.
Well they haven’t traded him. Or waived him.
A prime example of what?
They’re better than Benson.
Efficiency would be not digging your own hole and then bemoaning having to climb out – not committing to being worse.
Also – a second round pick doesn’t have high value and you’ve got one and sometimes two entire rosters of player slots in your minor league system.
It is not a huge investment and should never factor into whether a player plays or not.
Best lineup possible. Period. The only time you consider otherwise is if you’re good enough to be resting players. I was hoping that’s the debate we’d all be having in March and April, but that flew out the window.
People have an unnatural fetish for Benson here. It won’t end until Benson retires.
But, Kyle Turris is not better than anyone up here in Edmonton. Period.
Benson may not be better than Turris or Shore, but they need to play him enough to find out. But they play the veterans who they should know are below replacement value. There’s no downside to playing Benson over the crap 4th liners they are currently playing
Whoa – I agree. I take Benson over Turris all day long.
Someone mentioned yesterday that Holland looked perturbed, like he had had his Solitaire game interrupted by this media avail. (Good line 🙂 )
If I were Holland, I would have started the avail by saying, “I’ve got Evander Kane’s agent on hold on the phone right now. But yeah sure lets make this time count; First question?”
I didn’t think he looked particularly perturbed myself.
Agreed, Kenny has a natural stutter, (which by the way serves him well, gives him time to think while answering) which can give the appearance that he’s uncomfortable in the situation, when he is not.
That’s a reference to something from Twitter.
I think it might have been on Woodguy’s timeline, but I could be wrong. There was a tweet of a picture of an old man playing solitaire in his office that looked like Ken Holland.
While I generally thought Holland maneuvered his way through the presser like a pro,
OMG that explanation of “rudimentary analytics” was embarrassingly painful.
It was like listening to my Grandpa (God bless him) talking in amazement about the wonders of technology; That being the hydraulic stage floor at the Radio City Music Hall.
(Which in it’s day would have been pretty damn impressive to see on your first trip to the big city.)
Why on God’s green earth would the boys not have taken him to task on the meaning of Advanced Analytics???
Just thinking about the initial lines if Kane were to sign. I think I’d try:
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Foegele-Nuge-Kassian
McLeod-Ryan-Sceviour
I like the look of that top 9. No idea about the 4th line (there’s definitely arguments for Benson, Perlini and Shore instead of Ryan and/or Sceviour there).
McLeod has been playing well, I think I’d let him continue to grow into the 3C position. Maybe run Nugent-Hopkins – McLeod – Foegele? The cool thing about this roster is the flexibility: most of the players can be used in more than one position (Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Foegele, McLeod, Ryan, etc.).
Yeah I’ve thought of something along those lines too.
And agree there’s lots of options and flexibility, which is nice.
There have been persistent rumours of Holland interest in Kessel out of Arizona…if he did:
Kane-McD-JP
Hyman-Drai-Kessel
Foegle-RNH-Yamo
Would be a solid top 9. Physical player, shooter, playmaker on every line
Have there been?
I dunno about Kessel. He does seem to be playing pretty well this year, but it’s tough to see how they could fit in his $3.4M (that’s with 50% retained).
RNH Draisaitl Yamamoto
Hyman McLeod JP
Kane McDavid Kassian
Foegele Shore Sceviour
Benson Ryan Perlini
Ranked this way because we all know Kassian can’t be in the top six.
Lol, so many options.
lol Agreed. Kane would like an exponential add 🙂
I like this lineup but now you can only seven defence? Who would you pick?
You’re right RnR. I hadn’t considered that.
I’d drop one (or more) forwards. and run with 8 dmen.
But to answer your question:
Nurse Bouchard
Keith Ceci
Niemelainen Barrie
Lagesson Russell
Lagesson is ahead of Niemelainen (who was sent down yesterday).
I’d like to see them try Ceci with Nurse at some point:
Nurse/Ceci
Keith/Bouchard
Lagesson/Barrie
Barrie and the Canadiens choice of any D prospect except Broberg FOR Petry.
That is how I would deploy Kane as well. A shooter to play with Drai.
And RNH can actually play C and I like who you have him with.
I like the idea of Nuge at 3C but, for me, I also like the option of keeping Nuge in the top 6 and the addition of Kane allowing Yamamoto to drop to 3RW.
I also think that McLeod’s skill-set is suited to being a center and they should keep developing him as such. He’s already good on faceoffs (excellent really for his age) and his skating and puck exit/entry skills are suited for the center ice position, no?
Yes, lots of possible alignments.
I *think* Foegele-Nuge-Kassian is a better 3rd line than Foegele-McLeod-Yamamoto, but who knows.
Nuge in the top 6 and Yamamoto to the 3rd also theoretically improves a top 6 line, though I’m strong on Draisaitl-Yamamoto as everyone knows.
Keeping McLeod at C definitely makes sense but I wouldn’t be opposed to him playing wing for a while either.
McLeod is a CENTRE only. He will never be an NHL winger. Do you watch the games?
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Hyman
Foegele McLeod Yamamoto
Benson Ryan Sceviour
Haha! I haven’t watched a game since 2006.
This is my preferred initial alignment as well.
It would be interesting to hear from Joe Osborne, if he were desperate to pay the over-due rent, which underdog would lay money on in an attempt to “shoot the moon”.
The Steelers, The Eagles, or The Raiders.
Or would he just keep his money and buy a tent.
RAIDERS!!!! Thank You LT!
Drops everything ……..Runs to ATM
#ReluctantlyRaiders
kidding…sticking with Raman Noodles and a Tent. (prays that the weather holds)
I know he’s not signed but I think we should add Carter Savoie to that list.
Presuming he continues his play in the 2nd half once he gets back in the lineup, I would think he will sign his ELC this spring.
I’m not sure he’s an NHL option right away but I’m not sure he isn’t or will be too far off.
Looking forward to seeing if he can maintain his pace in the second half. He fell off in the 2nd half last year, I’ve heard that his fitness level is higher now so the 2nd half might be a tell.
Like you I see him signing his ELC this spring, then spending a full season in Bakersfield and arriving at TC in 2023 with a realistic shot at making the team.
If these kids continue their current trajectory this team is going to have “historic” depth starting in the 2023-24 season.
Potential depth chart:
LW: Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Foegele, Savoie, Benson, Petrov
McDavid, Draisaitl, Holloway, McLeod
RW: Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bourgault, Kassian, Lavoie, Tullio
I count at least 12 players who could qualify as legit top-9 players in the NHL. If you’re worried about McDavid walking in free agency (some Oilers fans are), the worst thing you could do is trade these guys for rentals this year.
“I don’t think Calgary would have moved Bear before this coming summer, using a simple and easy to understand example.”
OP! You gonna take this laying down? 🙂