There are 60 NHL goalies who have 10 or more starts this season. The Oilers have three goaltenders who qualify. The individual save percentages are (No. 22) Stuart Skinner .913, (No. 47) Mikko Koskinen .899 and (No. 57) Mike Smith .891. Stuart Skinner played well in a blowout win for the Bakersfield Condors last night, while Smith was not equal to the effort of the team in front of him.
General manager Ken Holland wants to see the team he created over a few weeks between now and the deadline. If the club keeps getting this kind of goaltending, this team is destined for an early and disappointing conclusion.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- New DNB: Mike Smith keeps showing he’s not the Oilers’ answer in net.
- New Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s early Oilers roster challenges and possible upgrades
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- DNB: Jay Woodcroft’s ascension to Oilers head coach is more than a dream come true: ‘Winning is a skill’
- DNB: Six signs of positive change surface for the Oilers in Jay Woodcroft’s victorious coaching debut
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: WAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, CHI, NYI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-4-2, 14 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 6-4-0, 12 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 28-20-3, 59 points in 51 games
I had last night as a loss but have to say the Oilers played well enough for a point, or even a win. Does that make one feel better? No. I’ve always maintained it’s easier to endure a loss like the Wild delivered to Edmonton in Game 50, it wasn’t close and you can forget it quickly. Last night? If the playoffs comes down to a point or two, that game may be remembered a long time.
GOALTENDER
Mike Smith let in a poor goal at the end of the first period and was unable to make enough saves to keep Edmonton close enough to catch up later in the game. That is the job of an NHL goaltender. He stopped 18 of 22 (.818) and Natural Stat Trick suggested the expected goal against based on quality of shots and situation was 2.33, while Smith gave up four. Not close to good enough, he has an .881 save percentage in all disciplines over the last 10 games (293 shots). He allowed 35 goals on those 293 shots, even average goaltending would have saved you upwards of 10 goals. The Oilers’ GM has to decide whether or not he’s willing to lose a playoff spring over Mike Smith. It’s reaching the point where it is that dire.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie played against the top line (Palat-Point-Kucherov) and emerged as the dominant group (with great help from Connor McDavid and friends). Nurse had six shot attempts, two takeaways and a blocked shot, plus a HDSC at five-on-five. Played 25 minutes, 2:48 on the PK, 0-1 there and 2-0 five-on-five goals, and drove to the net on a strong power move that could have cashed with a little more luck. Tyson Barrie had six shot attempts, an assist and a takeaway. An effective night for the top pairing.
Markus Niemelainen and Evan Bouchard did good things. Niemelainen had nine hits (he’s like a giant truck that keeps making all the stops) and got in the way of progress often. He got worked by Brayden Point on the third goal, it was more about positioning in my opinion. He’ll get better at that play, needs to lean on Point there. Bouchard had a quiet night, some good passes and no memorably bad moments.
William Lagesson and Cody Ceci (and Philip Broberg) all did noticeable things. Lagesson was 0-3 goals at five-on-five, puck tipped off of him on the second GA and he didn’t impede much on the Maroon goal. Broberg has to be way stronger on the Maroon goal. Cody Ceci babysat three kids pretty damn well and was money while with Nurse. Broberg showed flashes, a preview of coming attractions if you will.
Oilers on-ice goal differentials over the last seven games, at five-on-five: Ceci 5-1; Nurse 9-4; Barrie 8-5; Niemelainen and Lagesson 4-3; Broberg 5-4; Bouchard 3-4. The new coaching staff is helping in important areas.
FORWARDS
Connor McDavid was on a different level, in your life have you seen a player dance like that at blinding speeds? Scored two, five HDSC, could have had four goals last night easily. Zach Hyman scored a lovely goal courtesy a brilliant Draisaitl pass. Ryan McLeod played 20 minutes and is growing into a complete forward. I don’t know where he fits in the top-nine, but oh my he fits.
Evander Kane had a couple of brilliant opportunities (from Draisaitl passes) but couldn’t score, unfair to be critical since the winger has five goals in 12 games. It would have been very valuable if he’d cashed on one. Leon Draisaitl was engaged, fierce, he was a brute and I mean that as a compliment. Three assists, 14 faceoff wins, one great chance on a brilliant feed from 97. Kailer Yamamoto had a great chance, backchecked like a demon, got demolished, stuffed in a high school locker, but he kept on chugging. He is such a warrior. Missed a wide open net late, no idea how.
Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan did solid work at five-on-five with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nuge had two HDSC, Foegele one and the line performed well. Nuge ended up 0-2 at five-on-five, he did have five shots on goal and worked hard along the wall. Tampa’s deep roster made for tougher than normal sledding for this unit.
Devin Shore skated 10 miles just to see the first goal go in off his skate. Tyler Benson is starting to push, he just about clicked on a dandy play with Kailer Yamamoto that could easily have been a goal.
Oilers forwards on-ice five-on-five goal differential over the last seven games: Draisaitl 7-0; Puljujarvi 3-0; Kane 3-1; Foegele 5-2; Ryan 6-3; McDavid and Hyman 10-6; Nuge 5-4; McLeod 3-3; Yamamoto 3-4; Benson 2-4; Shore 0-1; Sceviour 0-2.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Heavy on the Oilers and goalie options, we start at 10 on TSN1260. Chris Johnston, TSN Insider, will talk about the trade deadline and available goalies (there are several on the list) and we’ll talk about the weekend games, too. MLB chatter has the negotiating heating up, we’ll drop in to see what’s happening . 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s warmer! Except in the Oilers net.
NEW for The Athletic: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ quiet man, is making loud noises on a new line.
https://theathletic.com/3148736/2022/02/25/lowetide-ryan-nugent-hopkins-the-oilers-quiet-man-is-making-loud-noises-on-a-new-line/
We’re supposed to hate the Flames more tonight, right?
so far so good…
The converted touchdown in a nice touch Nuckleheads.
Now hang on for the no-no.
Keep expecting Pavel Bure to hop over the boards with Van in these retro unis.
Every night.
Fuck those guys.
shames versus kanucles. Hate both teams. Hope they play a very very physical game again with a few fights. How about a line fight goalies involved.
Matthews 35 & 36…now leading the NHL.
Huberdeau with 1G 1A…now leading the NHL in points.
One of those elite players being elite early huh
Neither is a defenseman…but you know that.
So, I guess defenseman develop earlier than elite forwards now, lol
My Gord, the corners you paint yourself into on a daily basis. Hilarious.
Connor and Leon wont lead the league every year…. will they?
So you buy in to ‘leading’ or best this or best that?
I care about results that matter
Captain Underpants has yet to match the other huge deadly scorer in cups
That other guy took forever to do it
Good on him, golfing is good in AZ
The mark of HH is a kiss of death. Kadri with 5 points in February since the praises were sang lol. Makar hasn’t scored a goal in a month and now Calgary set to hit the skids for a bit after getting blasted by Vancouver!
Quick skip ahead to March and the Oilers have two games that I’d call losses – TBay and Avs. Other than that the Flames and Capitals are the toughest.
Oilers will be leading the Pacific comes April.
“Trolls are, she says, most likely driven by a need for attention. “Their comments often spark attention from others, so it can give the illusion of being important,” she explains. “And this sense of importance and centre of attention usually compensates for how they really feel in their life.”
hoo boy…that hurts
Summarizing:
Tullio (PP goal) and Petrov (PP assist) pick up points in losing efforts. They won’t have to wait long to seek redemption, as both are back in action tomorrow night, along with many other Oiler prospects.
Petrov picks up a secondary aPPle as North Bay draws within two late in period 3.
Josh Archibald with a clean bill of health.
He would be a fantastic addition as a 4RW.
Of course if still unvaccinated then he can’t cross the border. I think the team would be required to activate him, if healthy.
They’d be able to suspend him, with relief from cap (I think) when not able to participate in team activities.
To activate him, wouldn’t they wait until he’s in game shape? Give him a few weeks of practice and all that?
Yes Archibald’s physical play has been missed this year. Not sure if you let him take up a roster spot if he can only play home games?
if he’s ready by playoffs maybe the vaccine mandates are over by then?
Archibald is back in Edmonton with a “clean bill of health.”
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-notes-josh-archibald-is-back-with-clean-bill-of-health/wcm/b35d3195-58c4-415f-b5e1-092e35f28afe
After a big save at the Oshawa end, the Generals head back up ice on the PP, and Tullio rips his 27th tally-o of the year to open the scoring in period 2:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Oshawa_Generals/status/1497018351180259328?cxt=HHwWgIC5xciQvcYpAAAA
I appreciate everything that you do. It’s great. Really-o
Now. This might be a tad crazy. If we’re not going to run Skinner/Koskinen I figured I should go down a bit of a goalie stat chasing hole and hit upon the following player. A player who I’ve historically been very down on, however, this year his numbers are surprisingly decent in limited games. I’ll use MoneyPuck for the stats (I’ve had to set the minimum number of games played to 16).
Matt Murray. Is he an option? Granted he’s only played 17 games and had the whole waived down to the AHL situation earlier this year, but the guy is currently ranked 13th in Goals saved above expectation (8.4). Also 13th in Wins above replacement (1.4). He’s 9th in High danger unblocked shot attempt save % above expected (0.084). Then he seems in the range of average to very good across the board.
Contract is $6.25 mill per year, which is high, and it runs for another two years, which is likely too long unless he craters. Still I thought it was interesting to see him doing so well on a team that can be described as “improving”. If Ottawa could be convinced to retain 1.5 to 2 mill is he worth pursuing? You’re basically seeing the bet covered with the Koskinen money going out in the summer.
Likely to make it worthwhile you’d somehow need to also drop Kassian to the Sens to free up more cash for extensions to other players in the summer. Plus I still want to see Skinner here playing first. I think I’m still leaning towards just running Koskinen/Skinner until the summer then trying for Kuemper in free agency.
Anyhoo, thinking out loud after seeing a guy much further up the stat list than I expected him to be.
Matt Murray looked oddly good at least one time we played Ottawa and possibly both?
The cap is a big problem. Plus, you’d have to wonder if Ottawa wants to move him if they think he’s rebounded. You’d also wonder how we’d make the cap work this season and next.
Forsberg who also plays for the Sends would be a lot cheaper both in terms of cap and asset costs. He’s having a decent year relative to our goalies.
Driedger is an interesting case if you average his stats over the past 3 years even though he’s terrible this season. He could be an interesting buy low target.
And Holland obviously likes him
I was wondering why he wasn’t in the list – then realised he’s only played 15 games.
I will say I’m a little wary on Driedger, despite being gung ho for acquiring him in the summer. Oddly enough Seattle seem to have pretty decent team D metrics (13th in expected goals against), but are getting cratered by goalies (worst in the league for goals against above expected), Yes it’s more Grub than Driedger, but he’s still sporting a close to 5 goals conceded above expectation rate, good for 36th in the league. Granted that’s better than Georgiev (-5.5), MAF (-9.1), Koskinen (-9.4) etc. for reference. It’s also right in the range of Ullmark and I really liked him in the summer too (-3.9). I also realise goals saved above expectation isn’t everything, even though I always seem to get fixated on it. It’s my Ricki the Bear style open/closed shot foible.
However, like you say in your post further down the page if we look bigger picture his numbers are a lot better, so some of it might be being on a completely new team and the fact he’s only played 15 games. If he was getting crapped on early in the season and then is improving over the last set of games that’s also a good sign.
He still feels like more of a summer acquisition to me though than a buy now and hope he’s what gets us to the playoff kind of thing.
The more I talk about this the more I think I’m really moving towards Skinner/Koskinen for the rest of this season, even if that’s a non flashy decision. See what we have in Skinner, then sort the long term number 1 issue around draft time or in free agency.
I’m getting conservative in my old age. Keep the powder dry and all that!
GSAx means nothing if not given context, as in “/60”. The goalies with the most minutes get the biggest numbers. Moneypuck.com has a handy /60 column, here are how your goalies rank:
Ullmark: -0.149
Fleury: -0.247
Georgiev: -0.322
Koskinen: -0.346
Dreidger: -0.369
Grubauer: -0.786
We missed the boat 2 months ago, I floated this idea at the time. Contract is problematic and so is his inconsistency.
Been waiting all day for the Oilers to announce Smith is being put on the LTIR for lower torso inflammation but alas.
Broberg + 1st + Smith for Husso.
So 2 first round picks for an unproven 27 YO goalie probably on a hot streak?
That’s bat shit crazy. There’s stop gap Goalies with the potential to get hot out there. I would jump on one whose contacts expires this year all they need is a opportunity.
Most goalies are bat shit crazy.
Correct.
For a pending UFA?
Even if re-signed, he’s not nearly established enough.
I need more drinks to make this trade more palatable.
like 5 more
What value would you assign to making the playoffs or not?
That is what is at stake.
Well I do drink a lot come playoff time.
Your self entitled right is might inner Putin is showing! Not a good look but expected. Your quite a piece of work in an era where your mouth is able to write cheques your ass doesn’t have to cash. You would be pulling the crippled card a lot in my day!
In July Husso will be available for only money. Right now, he is not available, he is too valuable to the Blues to move.
Just wondering what the financial impact is on Can teams in regards to impact of Covid? Playing in half full or empty arena’s has to be killer on revenue. Will it put teams in the red for the season? Would it make them eligible for equalization? Perhaps too soon to know magnitude of costs.
When Bettman was giving his “state of the union” on all-star weekend, he mentioned that the reduced attendance late 2021/early 2022 will NOT have a material impact on overall HRR but will be very material to the teams.
Why not:
Watched the game last night and the team played well. A few issues here and there but overall a good game. Woody needs to stand up to Holland and tell him that he is not going to play Smith again.
Always interesting… The team played well against the two time defending champions, let’s fire the guy who built that team.
Bullshit the core was there. He bought a free agent (Hyman – good signing), fell into Kane and overpaid/over term for washed up vets. Ken is not a GM who wins a cup in the salary cap era. DrFting off the Bob list is as good or better than what Kenny has brought.
Please bring examples of why you think he is the man to take us to Stanley.
Never said that he was. All I know is that
A) Ken Holland has won a cup in the cap era
B) this is his team. Yes the core was here, but aside from McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse… There’s not many here from the Chiarelli era. Nuge was re-signed, the defense is almost entirely turned over. You could argue prospects, I’d argue Holland didn’t trade them away… Back and forth we go.
And C) I was poking fun since you said the team played well, and then suggested firing Holland.
Please bring examples of why you think Ken Holland cannot win a second Stanley Cup in the cap era 🙂
I was a little surpised at the shot at drafting.
This is a good crop of youngsters we have right now.
Holland has won a cup in the cap era though it was 14 years ago. It was also three years into the cap and he had an elite core starting out early in the cap era.
There have been a multitude of changes in both the game and in management since then.
Players age out faster now. Edmonton isn’t a prime destination for free agents like Detroit was in 2008. There’s been an entire 14 years of evolution and iterative changes in analytics.
Would Holland have even won in 2008 with the same core if the team was in Edmonton?
Would Holland have won in 2008 if the game was as fast as it is today and you couldn’t stack your team with 30 and 40 year old vets?
Today you need a combination of excellent drafting, astute trades, and cap stewardship. It also doesn’t hurt if you’re in the States, a state with low taxes and have a beach and warm weather.
Holland certainly isn’t a wizard at managing the cap and his trade history speaks for itself.
Holland had a massive advantage with 29 and 97 signed and didn’t do nearly enough.
Nurse – Ceci
Toews – Bouchard
Ghostbear – Bear
When does anyone start to question the Goalie coach?
There was a bit of that at the end of yesterday’s thread. It’s a legitimate question.
With all due respect I asked that question yesterday but now, after hearing Smith dictates everything, why would he listen to the goalie coach? Maybe Dustin has tried??
Sorry if I missed it, I haven’t read much of the thread.
But has there been any sort of real report about this? Or is it just coming from a bunch of angry fans speculating on things?
The man is untouchable he’s out lasted everyone, even on this thread they get all pissy face if you question his brilliance. Apparently he’s a really nice guy and that supposedly justifies him keeping the dream job of all dream jobs.
Ha ha ha I’ve been saying it for years. How does Schwartz justify his existence?
If the goalie is the most important player, isn’t the goalie coach the second most important after the head coach?
It’s funny how things get valued. I would move heaven and earth to have the best at both levels.
Holland has stated he doesn’t value goalies highly. In that you pay for a legit top one, but not for any other one.
There is logic there, but it seems that thought has lead him to be passive. Which is a mistake.
If you have top GCs, you also have an excellent resource in evaluating pros and draftees.
Take.Every.Advantage.
If Dustin’s not part of the problem, he’s also clearly not the solution either. Why not try someone else? Almost everything that can be tried carries substantial financial or roster cost.
Mike Smith has become Andrew Ference. His play cannot back up his big mouth anymore.
Ference was a spy for Eakins he used to run and tattletale on the exploits of certain younger players.
Even if his play did back up his big mouth, it’s a bad look. Players *never* call out the goalie for missing low and medium danger shots on net, let alone scream at him. So why the hell does a goalie think he needs to give criticism in that manner? That’s what the coaching staff is for. Woodcroft or Manson can have words with a player if he messed up; Smith’s emotional delivery can create animosity with the teammate on the receiving end. I don’t like it.
I miss the captain with the gigantic Bruins tatts on him
Must have been a hit with the young guys
Of course Mikko is “tradeable” – it has nothing to do with future perfromance on the acquiring team but asset management.
Non-playoff teams with cap space (and internal ability to pay for the apx $2M left on his contract) would acquire him because the Oilers would have to pay them in assets to take the contract.
We don’t know what that asset cost would be.
I would certainly NOT be willing to pay a 1st rounder to divest but something like Koskinen, Marody and a 4th in exchange for a 7th – not sure if that’s enough of a sweetener – it may take a Samorukov level asset.
I wouldn’t do that trade. If I’m giving up Samorukov, then they better take Kassian’s contract off my hands.
Not saying I would do Samorukov either but just that that MAY be the cost.
I would. He looked like me jumping in the Oilers lineup….
I’ve watched enough of him in the AHL over the last few years (and read enough about his play in the KHL) to not put any stock in his four shifts.
In particular given his given his mistakes were related to aggressively standing up at the blue line/neutral zone. Something that is one of his top skills and which he struggled with (timing, overly-aggresive, etc.) when he was an AHL rookie but learned and developed he gained experience at that level.
Why trade our second best goalie right now (behind Skinner)? Smith is the asset that needs to be moved.
Bring in a number one and off we go.
Because its $4.5MM of cap space that can be used for (a) a real tender upgrade and/or (b) other upgrades
NJ goaltending is so bad they might be willing to pay for Koski as an upgrade.
So, asset management. That would be not having to pay to get rid of a guy that’s leaving in June anyway, right?
Revenues are down, so does a pick for cap have the same value for an owner?
Oh, and if Mikko was “materially” tradeable, I feel he would have been by now…
Of course, I don’t want to give up assets to get rid of an expiring contract but, at the same time, of course, its the only way to get rid of the contract and open up $4.5MM of cap space right here and right now.
Its the same conversation as giving up assets for a rental. That $4.5M of cap space is an asset in itself, a short term/rental asset of its own.
Of course he’s “tradeable” – doesn’t mean the cost to trade him is reasonable for the Oilers but I’m sure teams would take him with the Oilers’ 1st round pick – that would be a terrible move but I’m sure its out there.
AZ has been taking cap for surprisingly little. There are also teams (Buffalo, New Jersey) who have cap space and want a stop-gap goalie due to injuries.
Mike Smith knows the team needs him. He feels it and he feels the need to deliver.
But there is a reason veteran NHL players rarely return from injury too early – and that is because they fully understand how poor performance will impact their careers and their employment. And there is zero understanding/consideration that they were playing with injury. (particularly in statistical tracking)
You are in the line up – your performance will be judged.
A rookie will rush to get back in. A vet generally takes his time. Mike likely came back too early. Or if you factor in his age and expected erosion, this may be as good as it gets, which is still a top athlete in hockey , but just not quite enough to be one of the top 60 in the world.
Veteran players usually take longer to heal. Also, younger players, or players that are currently better take your spot. I do not think they take their time due to philanthropy. Most professional sports players I know, right across the spectrum of sports are very competitive, whatever their age. They want to play every game.
I have no idea if Smith is injured. The club’s medical staff would presumably have to sign off on his return, for the league, union and insurance purposes. So what’s wrong? Is it the medical staff saying he’s fit, the occupational therapists evaluating he has full range of motion, the goal tending coach giving his blessing, the player hiding pain, the club pressuring the player/staff?
Or is it far more holistic? Is he just too old to cope with the rigors of the NHL?
Good questions.
But on the one point, I know some players and coaches and when a player is injured later in their career their desire to be close to 100% before returning is a real thing. It can be the difference between employed and not employed. They are competitive yes, but also realists.
Well…except for maybe a goalie or two??
Good points
Age is one thing, but with the injuries he’s had this season any goalie might be derailed
For Smith at his age it may mean that he won’t have another shot. It is hard for him, however he has had an unusually long career, so there’s that
It is a known fact that Holland is hunting a goaltender. Its not a matter If one will arrive but when and for how much.
The team has no choice but to outplay their goaltending and stay in a playoff spot.
I believe they can remain in the race. The goaltending move is critical. The person, the price, and the requirement to “get it right” is critical. I don’t want it rushed. Yes, might mean a few more weeks until more goaltenders are identified as available.
“Hold on, …it’s coming” – Leon Draisaitl
why you downvoting little bugger…..speak up, lets hear your thoughts
It is very difficult to outplay below average goaltending. If both goalies are putting up a combined SV% of .900 or less, the team would need to have a historically great offense in order to be successful. They need at least .910-.915 from their goalie tandem in order to win. It’s actually pretty amazing that they are in playoff contention with the SV% they have.
The ROT (run out of town) club, is hard at it today.
Trading experience for a new shinny object is a real winter sport for many in Oilerville.
Last year with the long term contracts, has set the course to make the play-offs for next few years.
This years goalies are Smith and Koskinen
Next years goalies are Smith and Skinner
sign Jesse ($4M) Kailer ($2M), McLeod $1.75M and then Bouchard.
Broberg is the 3LHD next year and the 2LHD the year after.
Holloway will start next year in bottom 6 and end in the top 6.
The rest cheap contributors under 25 or $1M ish role playing vets.
Without even average goal tending, we may not make the playoffs this year, let alone the next few.
Asking for better players doesn’t mean de facto, the players they replace are being run out of town.
And for the record, whilst we have no proof of what Smith was doing or saying to the rookies, the optics are horrible. Should it be what it looks like, he’ll be calling his own cab to YEG airport.
Man, I missed it. I’ll have to youtube this evening.
Closest link I think there is.
Apologies for the very long link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/zjlaing/status/1496674873736790020?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496674873736790020%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Foilersnation.com%2F2022%2F02%2F24%2Fthe-day-after-tampa-bay-5-edmonton-oilers-3-what-are-the-edmonton-oilers-going-to-do-with-mike-smith%2F
That is Keith Jones take on the conversation, so effectively hearsay. I don’t think we don’t really know how pointed the conversation between Smith and the young D were based on this. I am not defending Smith here. He could very well have been a real jerk. However, I just don’t believe people here can properly judge a specific incident that a) they did not actually see and b) can’t even question Keith Jones to get more details on what he overheard. If someone on here actually witnessed and heard the exchange, then maybe their input could enlighten us.
Smith had a very bad game, following a previous bad game and few really good games so far this season. A rebound to his performance from Jan 2020 (so not just one season – without him the Oilers would not have been in a playoff spot in 2020 (though would have qualified for the play ins) to the end of the last regular season is seeming less and less likely. Maybe he is not as healthy as he needs to be and maybe he won’t ever be healthy enough again, or age has really finally caught up with him. But over that prior 2 season stretch he was 33-9-6 with a .918 save % and no question the team liked playing in front of him and no one on the team even hinted and his personality being a problem.
I think he’ll still get another shot or 2 to prove himself as his track record with the Oilers has probably earned him that. I think it could be 3 strikes and he is out (unless he somehow manages to string together 10 great games before his next stinker, but I won’t hold my breath).
none of that rational thought here.
That is Keith Jones take on the conversation, so effectively hearsay. I don’t think we don’t really know how pointed the conversation between Smith and the young D were based on this. I am not defending Smith here. He could very well have been a real jerk. However, I just don’t believe people here can properly judge a specific incident that a) they did not actually see and b) can’t even question Keith Jones to get more details on what he overheard. If someone on here actually witnessed and heard the exchange, then maybe their input could enlighten us.
What is not included is Jones stating that goalies do this all the time. They’re not abusive, but we don’t know that Smith was either. And I truly doubt it since the coaching staff would be standing right there.
Jones said “animated” and “earful.” He didn’t say anything about belittling them or tearing a strip off them. And I agree, it’s unlikely that he would have with the coaching staff right there. It’s more likely it was an animated pep talk, telling them to not take any crap in front of their net.
Complete overreaction stemming from very little information.
Optics in a hockey town is irrelevant.
Don’t worry about what you don’t really know. Hard conversation and standards can teach as fast as video, benching and being sent to the AHL. There are lots of cultures and personalities on the Oiler’s defense they will all hear a goalie different.
It turns out our good host is a master of understatement. There have been many examples but if you ever need proof of this consider the following from today.
“Smith was not equal to the effort of the team in front of him.”
I arrived home a little while ago to see all manner of posts about politics and the war, and a couple calling me a coward.
So, let’s (once again) understand each other.
One night in 2011, I said goodbye to my Mom. The hospital called us and said it was time to visit and say goodbye, so we did. Such a wonderful person, a great life. I miss her terribly.
It was a miserable night. I was very sad, as you can imagine. Before bed, I thought it would be a good idea to check the blog, making sure all was well.
Nope! There were about 50 comments that were beyond the pale, arguments that had no place here and no answers or conclusions anywhere.
So, because that night will not happen again, I made a policy of no politics of any kind.
It’s been a battle. So, I’m going to give anyone discussing the current situation (beyond “my heart goes out to….”) a 30-day vacation from the blog.
In a moment when I was very down, and very upset, this blog punished me with multiple comments that we not invited.
I will not negotiate on this item. Respect the hockey blog, please and thanks.
I have long wondered about the origin of the phrase “beyond the pale” and lo and behold, as I lay trying to sleep last night, it popped up in a documentary about Ireland.
It has come to mean something like “outside common decency” but it actually refers to an area of Ireland that was under English control and any area outside that was considered beyond the pale.
I think the more popular take is more likely: beyond the pale as outside a fence of stakes (stake = pale, as in where we get impale and palisade from). So, beyond the pale is just meaning outside the boundary line of civilized life.
Used as in “Watching the Canucks is okay, but hoping those soulless monsters win is beyond the pale.”
I can’t speak for anyone else, but your rule keeps me coming here. Aside from your writing, I come here because of the no politics rule.
I can get that stuff anywhere, I come here to escape all that stuff.
That and camping box stories.
Man, that’s tough to read, LT. People get so emotional about their political views and sometimes don’t realize they are hurting people around them with aggressive tone and language. Sorry you had to deal with that (and sure hope I wasn’t involved).
I’m sure it wasn’t you and have long forgotten who was involved and all is forgiven. However, the rules apply so we can all enjoy hockey talk, with a dose of other joys. Politics and religion can’t work, we get too worked up as a group. Hell, hockey barely stays on the rails with you bunch! 🙂
Coward? Coward!? COWARD!!??!?
The man has lived in the forest in a BOX for
christ sakes.
If you believe that SV% is a team stat, then perhaps there’s a Smith-for-Driedger trade that could be consummated.
It means taking a risk on the 27-year old Driedger, he of a (team-best) .893 sv%, with two more seasons at $3.5M on his ticket.
I don’t think Driedger has any real trade value, so it seems feasible that the lesser money and term owed to Smith could appeal to Ronnie Capspace.
Driedger is interesting. I never watch him. I know he’s had a few injuries this season.
What’s funny is that when you sort goalies by 5v5 SV% over the past three seasons (including this one, with over 2000 minutes), you get Driedger at number 1, lol.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=2000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
I’d like to know more about his injuries this season, having a goalie coach scout him, and a look at his 3rd party analytics.
He could be a buy low candidate though there’s also risk there.
Ryan, if you’re around, I sent a twitter DM.
Woodley on Smith last night, Lehner, and Skinner. Starts at about the 15 minute mark.
https://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/audio/the-jason-gregor-show-february-22-hour-3-1.1762908
I didn’t click the link, but it says February 22. You sure he talks about last night in this clip?
Jesus, yes sorry. I was on the most recent TSN1260 list and for some reason Gregor’s Feb 22 show was at the top.
Probably explains why I try to avoid that site.
Well, it looks like Ethan Bear might get to be a top 4 defenseman for the Caroline Hurricanes for a little while at least. DeAngelo is now out for a month. We’ll see if Carolina does things a bit by committee. The have recalled Chatfield from the minors. We’ll get to see in Sunday’s game. After DeAngelo went down early in the 2nd the other day, Bear played 16 minutes in the game, while Pesce, Slavin and Skjei played huge minutes.
With Smith not being able to recover after an injury riddled 40 YO season, keeping an unstable backup, a late coaching change he didn’t want to do despite the mounting evidence, for me Smith tanking may be the last straw with Holland as GM
No one is perfect. But the decisions he made that were weak have been too consequential to move past and aren’t offset by a few good ones
Smith
Barrie
The Keith overpay, hobbling cap space in a critical season, not that the player has been bad
Not being able to, or trying to move Koski and getting a better option (Other GMs are able to these deals as we see regularly)
I’m sure there’s more
The Kassian contract which was terribad the moment the ink was dry.
He bought out Sekera then used most of that money to overpay Chiasson which if I a recall correctly forced him to bridge Nurse (I could be wrong on the Nurse part). He still failed to go long on Nurse which ended up costing a lot of cap space. The bridging trend died off after the whole Subban contract. Most other GM’s learned their lesson.
In both cases (Kassian and Chiasson), he lacked the imagination to walk away from aging vets like in his Detroit days.
Many are critical of the Broberg vs Zegras draft which currently has Zegras ahead by miles.
The widely panned AA trade though some have defended it vehemently. Given what he knew about Klefbom’s shoulders, it was a lot of currency for a winger. We know that Devon Toews came available for the same price a few months later.
He has frittered away draft picks at the deadline. While many trades are fair value individually, he pushed a lot of chips in on years the Oilers were not ready to contend.
General criticisms I’ve made is that he has tunnel vision. He doesn’t scout the league or pay attention to the market (Toews etc). He mostly sticks to targets that he thinks he knows though that could be due to a lack of scouts. He doesn’t value or trust analytics. He doesn’t look for deals or to try to find emerging talent. He sticks to known commodities (which are all on the decline). He ignores aging curves.
Lastly, he hasn’t been a good steward of managing the salary cap.
^ this all day and the fact he’s getting paid $5MM a year is repulsive.
It’s also a big red flag for Bob Nicholson. Didn’t he hire Chiarelli and Holland without even interviewing other candidates? Where’s the due diligence? Looks like tunnel vision to me.
Even worse while he didn’t look around before Chiapet, I read he interviewed Zito before Holland was hired
The guy that in the same time sorted similar issues out in Florida and now has a decent contender, found value everywhere and hired an excellent coach that he lost, and still rolling
Coulda been us, coulda been a contender
Yeah, I had raved about Zito earlier this year before Florida got really good.
I had mentioned that he found value shopping in what I termed the “disappointment aisle” of underperforming high draft picks.
Zito also likes analytics and hired Sunny Mehta.
Holland doesn’t do hockey trades.
Tell Zito that you shouldn’t make hockey trades in this day and age.
https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/staff/bill-zito
Man I long for a horse trader. It’s been since Slats and one season for Lowe
It’s one of the three corners. Draft and develop, sign UFAs well, and get value in most trades for needs
Almost every top team uses all three successfully. Because timelines are limited
This is so true. I remember so well being excited hearing Bryan Hall say “the Oilers made a trade last night” or picking up the Journal with a headline announcing a trade I hadn’t heard.
It’s been YEARS. Lowe deadline 2006.
I didn’t like the AA trade because it was almost certainly not going to work because of the player’s style, the Oilers didn’t need offense as much as two way play. And AA hasn’t changed as should have been expected, he’s only helpful for a team lacking offensive skill
I didn’t like the Green deal for the same reason, one way guy. Also injury riddled and old. No surprise again what happened. Which makes me think, has he learned that lesson yet? It isn’t 2000 anymore
The Nurse issue, bad planning and I’ll say because even if Nurse didn’t take another step if that was actually a worry at their end, they were not going to move him, so all that could happen was a higher contract
And Sekera. Move him along with a cap penalty and then can’t replace his contributions
Really no creative strategy for such an experienced GM. Total meat and potatoes in a fusion world
It’s an emotional time
BUT
Our host has repeatedly asked and recently demanded the discussion be kept to sports
Or the forum we all love may be terminated
I don’t want that. You don’t either
Please everyone control thyselves. Resist the urge to do what you know you shouldn’t
Sports, and…
Music, Cooking, Spirits, Film, Travel…
Unless I missed a memo?
Don’t forget the dirty innuendos!
People really like lumping Mikko Koskinen in with Mike Smith when they say our goaltending is bad, which I think is very unfair to Mikko. Koskinen is the ONLY goalie on the roster with a winning record (9 games above .500). He is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts.
Yet I see a lot of trade them both, they both suck, etc. Mikko’s numbers are not spectacular stats wise, but he wins. He is the only goalie who has won consistently this year. As much as people like to remember Skinner’s last shutout, his record is just .500 and he is full value for the losses on his record (bad goals, mishandling pucks). He has come a long way, and his future is bright.
Mike Smith is no longer an NHL goalie. Stop playing him. But can we at least start giving Mikko a little credit?
Well said.
Why did Holland give Smith 2 years? Did he really think anyone else would sign him?
Loyalty is great and important. But it shouldn’t include tolerating poor play (or work) or a poor attitude, in pro sports
You get paid millions, get to be in the spotlight, then you don’t. If you can’t do it you have to go, sucks but it comes with territory
Within the bounds of law and decency, winning is all that matters in pro hockey
In theory that second year should mean that there’s zero chance of him being claimed if he has to pass through waivers (although even the remainder of this year should be enough of a deterrent based on standard of play). It’s time to send him down and bring up Skinner. However, like I said yesterday, I’ll be surprised if Holland does it. This feels more like “let’s see how the road trip goes with the two goalies we have” situation and then bring up Skinner when we return home.
My issue with that is it’s already getting late in the day, get Skinner in playing now and let’s see what we really have. Smith is going to get blown out anyway, surely Skinner can do better?
I did like Smith a lot and really wanted to believe he had one more year in him (the second year on that contract 100% baffled me), but he’s clearly hit the age wall well and truly.
Speaking as a guy who played soccer his whole life and is now about to turn 38, I can definitely tell you that even little injuries and niggles are much harder to play through or recover from. Then you definitely slow down compared to the young folks. The mind knows where to be and what to do, but the legs might not always get you there. Thanks for everything, but it’s time to sail on Sudbury Wolf.
On that note I’ll see you all in Masters Soccer once that gets going in the summer. Maybe I can be one of the faster players again 😀
Yes waivers was a good point
Would he really he claimed? If they were necessary?
Of course Smith would have had contract offers this off-season.
He was 7th in Vezina voting last season – he had a good season. Lots of older goalie out there.
That’s not to say he would have received any two year offers but, yes, I’m sure he would have received offers.
I believe the 2nd year was essentially to get the cap hit down. Smith likely would have “required” a higher AAV/cap hit for a one-year deal.
He may have received a that “request” from another team, we don’t know.
I’m not saying I agree that Holland should have given the 2nd year but I can understand the premise.
Good points
Being the good guy. A better GM would have said with the age risk involved it’s 1M 1 year
He shouldn’t need the money. Just like all the other late 30’s guys that still want to play took to stay and help the team be more competitive so they had another shot at the Cup
My coworker (Flames fan) talked Ad Nauseum about how much he hates Mike Smith from before and after our acquisition. About how much of an a-hole he was, always blaming everyone else for his lousy play, even in post game scrums, basically saying he played great, everyone else sucked. Yelling at D. All the things being discussed today.
I never really saw it fully until last night. Figured, yeah, he was emotional, usually swore after goals but I assumed mostly at himself, but didn’t want to see the dark side.
I see it now. He should be done after that shitshow. I’m done with him. Bury him in the AHL, buyout, Robidas Island, whatever. Call up Skinner right now, annoint him next year’s backup (maybe not publicly but get those games played in) and start shopping and try to pull the trigger on a target, whether it be Georgiev or someone else.
We have our goalie. We need to play him.
I agree we need to see if that’s our goalie.
Got to convince Winnipeg to cut bait on their hopes and dreams and trade their mostly goalie to Edmonton.
What would that cost in assets to acquire?
A lot. I don’t even want to speculate how much. But it would (probably) be worth it.
Woodcroft Era
EDM Goal Diff 7 gp(5-2-0)
EV (3v3,4v4,5v5)
97 w/o 29(7-6) 54%
29 w/o 97(4-0) 100%
97&29 On(4-0) 100%
93 w/o either(5-3) 63%
71(0-2) 0%
10(0-0)
Other(0-1) 0%
Net EV +8
Special Teams 5-7=-2
Empty Net 3-1=+2
SO/PS 0-0
Goal Diff +8
EDM Goal Diff 51 gp(28-20-3)
EV(5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29(30-26) 54%
29 w/o 97(28-24) 54%
97&29 On(18-11) 62%
93 w/o either(13-12) 52%
71(8-13) 38%
10(10-23) 30%
Other(4-8) 33%
Net EV -6
Special Teams 44-40
Net ST +4
Empty Net 13-9
Net EN +4
SO/PS 3-0
Net SO/PS +3
Goal Diff +5
So since it is the topic du jour, I just wanted to weigh in on my two cents of Smith.
Mike Smith has been one of my favourite goalies since his run with Arizona like a decade ago. I loved his puckhandling and his fiery attitude as a fan, and although I can’t seem to have the same temper as him, i modelled a lot of my own game after him.
So there can and should not be any calls against me for being biased against him. That being said, it is time to go Smith. This road trip has felt like his last chance. A month until the deadline, a test against some top teams to see if he can perform up to the task that the playoffs will demand, and last night was an epic fail.
His injury at the start of the year was never fully expanded, although I did read a few times it was likely an ankle injury that only hurt him in certain situations, namely in the VH and RVH positions. When he returned early in January and some speculated he looked either rusty, hurt or both it was clear something wasn’t right. In an interview, he had stated that the injury was improved but still hurt, but its something he just needs to work through.
If it is his ankle, it explains a lot. Smith’s greatest skill is his skating. HE has powerful pushes and strong stops and starts. Its why last year, when he calmed down the desperation and focused on positional, technical play, he was so often in position to make the save, cover or play the rebound and it worked so well. In his slumps he over-reacts and often is reaching or going for desperation saves rather than focus on the simple play that works. He “flops” too much when hes in a slump. Or when his ankle is in pain and his skating is struggling to get him into position.
Combine that with his thumb injury and it also makes sense why his puckhandling has slipped recently too. The argument has always been that even if Smith is not the best “Puck-stopping” goalie available, his puckhandling was the argument that he would jumpstart the offense, cut out some of the defensive zone time and result in fewer shots against. Generally, it has worked out that way too. This year however, his puckhandling was still fairly strong at the end of the year, but I have not noticed a big difference between his and Skinner’s or Koskinen’s active stick. In fact, oftentimes, he’s making poor decisions of when to play the puck and where to put it, which I would guess is back to his injury. Assuming again its an ankle injury as I think Gregor(?) was saying, it would make sense he’s struggling just a bit with timing and skating so that pucks he normally would reach in time to make a smart play, hes getting to late, making rushed decisions, which leads to bad plays.
He’s negating his strong puckhandling because of his struggles this year, which are exacerbated by his tendency to over-react when he’s in a slump. That over-reaction continues into all facets of his game, but, forgive me if it seems I’m over-playing the injury card, it would explain even more about what others have pointed out about him.
The scramble goal last night he couldn’t push over well enough to get a pad on that puck. he tracked it, he saw it, he couldn’t get there.
The Stamkos goal was a beautiful shot, but it doesn’t go in if Smith is in proper position. The VH and RVH is for a specific situation when the puck is behind the net and some goalies fall into the trap of holding it too long when the puck heads in front of the net. Smith held it longer than any other goalie would have, since Stamkos is at the faceoff dot, there is no danger of a deceptive/quick shot on the ice handcuffing Smith. But remember, the VH/RVH is a position that Smith has struggled with due to the pain of injury he’s “working through.” He doesn’t get off the post and Stamkos’ admittedly skillful shot goes in over the shoulder of a 6’4 goaler.
If he indeed is playing through an injury to his ankle or similiar, then its affecting his skating, which is affecting his mobility and his ability to move side to side. It would even explain why hes playing so deep in his net. He always has played deeper, but its even more noticeable, and it might be compensatory since his is struggling with his side to side mobility, and he CAN’T play more aggressively.
This is where Holland has to be the one to end this. Woodcroft is a new coach with no connection to Smith, and he is a leader in the room. Regardless of his actions, he is seen that way and an interim coach walking into a room and immediately demoting a team leader and the accepted starting goalie might make too many wave. The General Manager who is older, seen more and worked with Smith for years now is in a position to discuss options with Smith, as well as find an option to move onto. Even a sideways move at this point might work, because Holtby, or Reimer or some other goalie might not be performing overly better than Smith, there is the potential for a rebound, or a stylistic fit into the lineup that Smith will not provide.
Great post! Thanks
Makes sense to me. If Smith’s body is FUBAR, they should LTIR him and move on. I really don’t get why in a results-oriented profession Smith seems to be exempt sometimes from judgement.
Even Gregor wrote today that Smith needs to come out. He had better watch out lest Smith single him out and berate him.
exemption is an Oiler thing, from top mgmt. down.
Great post, appreciate the added insight from a goalies perspective. At what point does pride takeover for Smith? The results have been clear and he must know the body is letting him down. It took Rask 4 games and he packed it in for the betterment of the team.
One thing we always see with Smith, in the games before he goes on IR, he always plays terribly, and he always finishes the game unless he gets yanked. He’s not the player to leave a game, under his own volition, due to an injury.
I hope Manson asked Smith for a moment after the game last night.
Smith should be shipped to Seattle so he can yell at their weaponized cap space.
The TNT crew absolutely ate Smith and the refs alive last night.
Varlamov is off the covid list.. Come on Kenny.
I don’t understand why we can’t trade Koskinnen for another marginal goalie like Greiss. The cost would be low. And there are others out there as well. Sure, it doesn’t solve the goaltending issue for the next 10 years, but Holland doesn’t have to do that today. He needs to make a change, for change sake. A marginal goalie moved to a new team might surprise. If he doesn’t, you’re in the same spot as yesterday. Trading for a marginal goalie does not preclude you from working on a deal for a better solution.
But it won’t be cheap. Teams know we need a goalie bad. Yzerman isn’t going to do Holland a favour. He charged us 2 2nd rounders for AA For Kripes sake. Greyish is having all that good of a season either. Skinner has a lot better numbers.
I hope you are right in that we can get an upgrade cheap. I just dont see it being cheap at all
Guess we shall see
Which is why Smith will not be traded today and will play again. If today’s thread is any indication, it appears that may fans will not understand why.
Well it appears the Oilers have two reasonable backup goaltenders (Skinner & Koskinen) and what was once a solid #1 (Smiddy) who should consider taking himself out for the good of the team . If not , he should be taken out kicking and screaming which seems more the case with Smiddy .
No one in the NHL other than the Oilers would have any interest in a marginal goalie like Greiss. It’s easy to flip this logic. You take my fourth rounder or I walk down the street and take another marginal goalie. I would argue there are many more teams with marginal goalies, than there are teams actually willing to take them.
Just because you say this doesn’t make it true. There are more teams with marginal goalies than teams looking for marginal goalies. In fact, I would argue we are the only team in the league with playoff hopes who could possibly improve their goaltending by acquiring a marginal goalie. No one is beating down the door for marginal goalies. If Holland can’t get a reasonable price, that’s on him.
Another game and another Opposition TV crew ( TNT) mocking Mike Smith and he novel idea of being 2 feet deep in his own net.
TNT saying the Oilers need goaltending.
The odd thing is only *now* – now that Keith Jones (TNT) reports it – does the word get out on Mike Smith and his amazing skills as a teammate / coach for the young D.
Imagine yelling at your young D teammates as you cannot stop a puck.
TNT deserves credit for their mocking of Mike Smith.
He fully earned it.
Yep, it’s bush-league to call out your D and something goalies should learn to shake off at age 11 or they don’t move on.
He’s had a good career, even won a gold medal (!), and it’s time to accept the judgement of Father time.
Doesn’t seem too much to ask of a goalie if you are stinking the joint out – to not yell at
your teammates.
This city has juvenile level coverage of its biggest sports team.
95% of the group spends its time doing the team’s bidding and apologizing for any criticism of players.
Almost all opposing views rest squarely in the controlled opposition camp.
This is also why the narrative can flip so fast when the time comes that someone is deemed “headed out”.
I have been beating this drum for years. Edmonton media partially complicit in the long decade of futility by providing cover. DNB seems to be changing that a bit.
To be fair, this happens in a lot of cities.
In Winnipeg, they will literally write or tell saintly stories of players ( or coaches) .
Said players leaves via trade or free agency or retirement….suddenly, real reporting becomes a thing. And some truth dribbles out.
I had mentioned that recently though my comment was derided by someone due to my lack of credentials.
Sorry Ryan, but you need to have at least one Vezina before you can have an opinion on goal tending. You know the rules.
Yeah, I am sorry you had that happen. I have been beating this drum for a while.
I only cite opposition media crews to reinforce what you and I were saying.
You and I are not alone.
Smith had a chance to go out gracefully but Old Dutch foolishly gave him another 2 years.
If the notion that Smith just yells and intimidates everyone in the org into letting him have what he wants including game starts is actually true, then this org is more screwy than I thought.
Smith is my nomination for the next winner of the Shayne Corson Best Teammate Award. For those who are too young to know, it’s all laid out on the internet his antics while he was captain of the team.
Corson’s ass got traded out of here when it became too much. Oilers management perhaps need to show Smith that nobody, especially a washed up 40 year old goalie who can’t play anymore, is above the team.
Ya you can’t be an asshole when you are playing like shit. He was fighting the puck all night. Couldn’t catch the puck. He was the same lady game as well.
last night all he had to do was stop 1 of those 4 goals and we at least get a loser point .
unacceptable performance by Smith. And that yelling at the bench aimed at young D will probably not go over well with this new coach.
Holland send him down.
Back during Koski’s slump, the verbal came out repeatedly that the players support him and he’s great to have in the room. I wonder if there is something behind that…
I played net for 30 years. The job is to stop the puck no matter what. Screened, tipped, 2 on 0… who cares, figure it out. Speak when spoken to. Never yell at teammates, no matter how many times they make mistakes. Your teammates block shots and fight anyone who gets near you, most would lay in traffic for their goalie. Can’t ever forget those things. Positivity and “lightning the mood” go a long way with your teammates so they forgive you when you lay an egg.
I believe NST has Tampa at 3.08 xGoals last night. Smith still underperformed that, but by 1 goal rather than 2.
I had looked at that too last night, too. What I was wondering is how you separate the time with Smith in net vs when the Oilers pulled him?
What is counted as an expected goal against if you have no goalie in the net?
Or to put it in simpler terms, did any of the 3.08 xGoals against occur when Smith was on the bench?
Great question, hadn’t thought about the EN part of the game having an appreciable effect.
If you look at Oilers goalies ‘last 1 game’ on NST it says Smith had/faced 2.31 xGA last night. So that 1 EN shot/goal was worth about 0.8 xGoals.
More importantly, LTs original post was correct, so LT, sorry for pointing something out erroneously!
Well, then…that changes things.
Question for you all.
WHAT GOALIE CAN YOU GET AND FOR WHAT RIGHT NOW ?
I would bring up Skinner and send Smith down. Maybe he would refuse and you could suspend him.
I don’t disagree but Mike Smith is a critical leader on the team apparently.
Might be a tough move for a rookie NHL head coach on a interim position.
Well it won’t be the rookie coach pulling the trigger. The coach needs to go to Holland and say I want Skinner here. Holland then needs to pull the trigger and tell Smith it is his decision and that he needs to go down and get his game going. It is actually a win win. If he doesn’t go he can be suspended. Maybe he retires lol.
Smith needs to make some saves if he’s a critical leader , or maybe he’s just critical .
The GM needs to address the situation with Mr. Smiddy or how about the teams owner.
Imagine that .
One of the debates I see often is essentially the one between stupid and stubborn when it comes to Ken Holland.
Being overly stubborn does blend into stupid after a while…but that’s neither here nor there.
Most of his action is old grump stubbornness. Giving vets money when it is time for them to sail on. Constantly referencing Detroit. Being upset about making the right move (Tippett firing). Acting like every decision is as difficult as getting out of bed on a cold morning after a late night.
“I wanted it to work out but only my way” is not an argument in professional sports.
I am pretty sure Holland has tried on a goalie. He just didn’t want to get bent over on asking prices. Wasn’t it rumoured that we we’re very close to a Georgiev trade before Xmas? Also the asking price on Korpisalo was a 2nd and 3rd rounder?
For starters we can’t use our 2nd or 3rd period this year in trades because of the Keith deal.
Guess we see if he does anything in the next few weeks. The thing is, that 3rd place playoff spot is completely up for grabs and not sure any of LA, Anaheim or Us ( without a goalie) can put up a winning streak run right now. Maybe LA, and don’t count out Vancouver right now.
No clue what is going through the GM’s mind.
But at least get Skinner up for Sat’s game ffs .
I don’t get paid to try to do my work. I get paid to do it. I’m sure pretty much everyone here is the same.
Prices are what they are – market. They don’t fluctuate wildly unless you go to the Peter Chiarelli school of circling one player and only one player.
He could have a goalie at market price. He prefers to have Smith work out and has his feet dug in. He’s already made change he’s uncomfortable with (Tippett). These are both bad things. GMs must be ahead of the curve/problems and always ready to make whatever change benefits the team.
The Oilers have assets that will rot on the vine. This is true of every team. The good teams utilize those assets before they rot to benefit the current and/or future squad.
Part of being a good GM is walking away from a deal if the price is too high or the terms don’t make sense.
Walking away from the rumoured Georgiev deal or Korpisalo cost or Jones cost was the right “move”.
The opposite is digging in on acquiring Duncan Keith without getting cap hit retained or bad salary going back – that should have been walked away from.
For me, right now, the glaring mistake that Holland is currently making is not having Skinner on the roster and available to the coach.
Skinner has been just as good (even better) than the other two in limited/sheltered games but there is nothing to think he doesn’t give the team just as good of a chance to win and, from recent play, an even better chance.
Give him games – it very well could help in the here and now and, even if it doesn’t, it provides very important information on his potential role for next year.
Holland needs to not care about the feelings of Smith or Mikko and make the move to expose them to waivers and assign them.
Its time.
So you are of the opinion that Skinner is in the minors against Woodcroft’s wishes?
Not necessarily but potentially.
Its Holland’s call, of course.
I don’t think its reasonable to project that Woody wouldn’t use Skinner if he was available.
At the same time, given his extreme rookie status, Woody may not be overly expressive of his feelings to his GM on this. It very well could be Holland expressing his “plan” of seeing how his opening season preferred due of Smith/Koski do now that both are healthy and evaluate.
Woody could have just “nodded OK”.
So, basically yes, against Woddy’s wishes. But he may not have actually spoken up on what he wants? Is that fair?
(based on: “I don’t think its reasonable to project that Woody wouldn’t use Skinner if he was available.”)
I guess I think it’s possible that Woodcroft and Holland may be on the same page, and think the best course forward is to stash the waiver exempt goalie in the minors while seeing if the veterans can get on track.
That may not be the case, but I do think it’s quite possible.
And it’s a very reasonable approach really, unless you’re convinced Smith isn’t an NHL goalie any more (which obviously many Oilers fans are).
How bad was the goaltending last night?
Putrid.
Nevertheless, still saw a few posts trying to defend Mike Smith.
Incredible.
I think they’re more trying to defend their previous position on Smith.
Here’s the thing: If Smith plays well Saturday, I’ll cheer like hell for him. Still don’t like him as our goalie.
This line from the movie Rounders encapsulates the fears I have regarding Holland sitting at the trade table trying to solve the goalie issue that he ignored in the offseason.
Positives from last night were great games by Benson and McLeod. Plus the team outplayed Tampa. Just got shite goaltending
Holland has to see after that game, that this group is good enough to win a series or 2 for sure under this coach if it has good goaltending.
Send Smith down ( I don’t believe he has a NMC) to Bakersfield and call Skinner up .
A trade for a goalie ( like an actual good one and not a retread) will cost us extra lots today. But hey, trade your 1st, and Samorukov if need be , if you can find one that you have control on.
You May get a team to bite more on a trade involving smith with a lower cap hit as a backup ( but with that 2nd year ?) than Mikko.
it has to be so frustrating to the players in front of these goalies when they play a great game like last night and get 0 points.
PS: Holloway 1G 1A. And Lavoie 1 goal. Last night.
This team may be good enough as is for a deep run. With proper goalering. We at last have a third line, and a 3C, with Benson starting to push. Throw in Holloway, and maybe Lavoi, and there is plenty of F depth. The acquisition cost for Keith was high, but it is now sunk and the man can still play a bit. RD depth an issue but it seems some of LD can compete on the RD side. Would love to trade Barrie for a defender that defends. I remain very hopeful that Oscar is waiting in the wings. Come on up Mr. Skinner. Take the starter minutes and Binnington the hell out of them.
I recommend Dave Manson spend some time teaching the young defencemen the wonders of his high, hard slapshot.
As the “#1 goalie”, Mike Smith needs to be in the net to represent a realistic opposition.
I can’t help but think this might sort things out rather efficiently.
I missed the game last night and just watched the rerun of the same car crash. Best team, not including goalie, did not win. All but the Perry goal are on Smith IMHO. Even bad luck stops 2 of the 3. Otherwise the team is rounding into a nice form, skilled, fast, confident, structured, detailed and patient. We will see if Woody can take on Holland and get out of the wreckage without having him (Holland) lose face. After all, Woody is on a temp contract.
Wow, this season… major ebbs and flows, with king tides. Some great things have happened that I’ve predicted (posted or not)… besides the obvious from 97 and 29; Hyman having a great year, Bouchard emerging over Barrie, Nuge at 3C come playoff time (that was poo poo’d by many early on). Keith not being as bad as anticipated, same for Ceci. As you can see nothing earth shattering, I leave that to our host. Where I was wrong and fully prepared to eat crow (oddly, haven’t read that saying here in some time, used to be commonplace) is the goaltending. I thought the duo could hold the fort enough to determine the hottest hand to run for a playoff stretch. It’s obvious I was mistaken here, and more obvious we need an upgrade, schnell! It’s time Holland seriously considers moving out the 1st and prospect to dump Koskinen for a real upgrade in net. We can’t afford an early exit, again.
Smith’s reactions last night were off-putting to say the least. As a guy who has been in the league for eons he should really know better. Say what you will about Koskinen, he has never dumped on his D as Smith has.
I think the Oilers deserved better last night but the hockey gods laugh at that notion.
Scenarios for the future of Smith;
1) Dump him on Bakersfield for a conditioning stint for the rest of the season. I think that’s well within the rules.
2) Buy him out. That hurts a great deal and I wouldn’t want to do that but Rancho Relaxo beckons for Mr. Smith, only he seems to be the only one who doesn’t realize it yet.
3) Trade? I don’t think anyone would take him on unless it was part of a three way deal where he was waived later on.
I think Skinner has earned the chance to run with this team. I can’t understand management’s reluctance to give it to him. Overpaying for a middling goalie right now doesn’t change what really ails this club. Real and substantial assets would be leaving and money would be even tighter. No thanks.
Holland’s inactivity during the season regarding his goaltending has put him in a bad negotiating position. To think, he gets paid 5 million dollars for that.
Not sure how much leeway Smith gets as a veteran according to the CBA, but I think he’s almost bomb-proof. He has to agree to go to Bakersfield. I think a buyout also hurts us.
It’s so infuriating as literally everyone bar the most optimistic posters here suspected that this would happen.
I was thinking the same thing but I was listening to the cult of hockey podcast and it was either McCurdy or Staples who said that a conditioning stint in Bakersfield was doable from the Oiler’s perspective.
It’s insane that a conditioning stint hasn’t already taken place over crossing fingers for this many games in a season.
Tippett lost his job for allowing Smith to do his conditioning stint with the NHL club .
The buyout for smith after this year actually isn’t the worst. His cap hit would drop from 2.2 to just .533, followed by .833 the second year. The buyout is palatable because his contract is back-loaded (hilarious) and there are no signing bonuses. Still dead cap and I really hate dead cap though.
Also, burying him in the minors would cost less (though over just 1 year rather than 2).
He makes $2.2M, 1.125M of that (cap wise) goes away if he’s sent to the AHL. So he would be only a $1.075M cap hit for 1 season.
That said, I doubt buyout or being buried happens. If Smith doesn’t play I think LTIR is far more likely.
I was under the impression Smith was approached about a conditioning stint in Bakersfield, but refused. Similar to deciding on playing back to back when Tipp got fired, he makes the decision and it hurts the team.
I don’t care what they do, just don’t play him and keep him away from the young D.
SMIDDY YOU”RE FIRED !!!!
I don’t think that’s necessarily true.
He was asked by the media if they talked about a conditioning stint and he responded that it hadn’t even crossed his mind.
I’m sure Smith would never say that they asked him and he said no (if that’s true) but there is no account that he’s refused.
Of course, he’d clear waivers and could then be sent to the AHL (the org could force it) but it seem unlikely unless he continues to be this terrible for while.
Maybe Holland should take two lotto balls out on Connor Ingram (Nashville) and Logan Thomspon (Vegas)… and (with Skinner) run those 3 goalies to see which two emerge. All western Canadian kids (more likely to re-sign), all young, and all have been playing well in the AHL and for the last few years. They won’t cost much at all and may provide great goaltending for the next decade.
If McDavid was 18, I might agree. He’s not. It’s go time, they can’t afford to risk any more time on unproven goalies. They need a proven, reliable veteran starter.
Who are they going to get and what will they have to give up… and if they get an old vet, what will they do in a year or two when their game declines, too? Trade more assets and pay too much salary again to get another vet? I would guess we’re about to see one or two of these goalies take that step in the next year. Nobody gives up those kinds of goalies once they’re already established and still have good years ahead of them. It rarely happens.
There is one available.
Who? Varlamov?
Gotta love Oilersville. Tempermental goalie past his prime who has a history of yelling at his teammates is rumored for a coaching position in the organization because of course he is.
I’m not sure why Woody isn’t playing Skinner, a player he would be familiar with, unless he’s trying to force Holland’s hand by continuing to play Smith. Which I doubt coming from a brand new head coach.
Always gotta love a Bowie reference in the title but why does it have to be this song so often? 😂
Pretty sure Holland has told Woodcroft he has to play the 2 vets he has and thus Skinner was sent down.
The finding a goalie price just got even more $$$$$$.
PS. FUCK PUTIN
Please, let’s stick to the hockey and not involve the politics of the day.
Cap issues. Smith needs to go back on IR to make it happen.
Or put on waivers and sent down. Does he have a NMC
Well maybe that’s it! Woodcroft over-playing Smith to induce ‘injury’?
It’s not a cap issue. The Oilers could waive Smith and call Skinner up today without making any other moves.
Woody can’t play a goaltender Holland has sent to Bakersfield. Holland controls the 23 man.
Holland has made a few poor moves in his tenure. The poorest without question is Smith for 2 years. Banking on a 40 year old goalie was ridiculous. Without a top flight goaltender the Oilers will be wasting another year. Be prepared to be disappointed and angry for a goalie trade as Holland will overpay for sure as all other GM’s will hold him ransom.
I almost don’t mind the idea of a small overpay as long as he gets a certain upgrade. I’m sick of the Oilers going out and getting another ‘Granlund’ and expecting different results. If he spends assets to get a goalie like Korpisalo or Georgiev I’m going to scream.
Some of the guys that get talked about here haven’t been good recently despite decent full-season numbers. Since December 1st:
Reimer: .895
Holtby: .898
Greiss: .899
Dreidger: .900
If you think any if these guys are the solution, you aren’t asking the right question. Georgiev actually looks good in this 3 month view, but that’s only because the Rangers wisely have only given him 2 games in the past 45 days, wherein he posted a 5.09 GAA and an .811 sv%.
Yes, there does not appear to be a clear legitimate upgrade option out there.
No, there is. It’s just not one of these guys.