There’s a line in my favourite Gram Parsons song that goes “it’s a hard way to find out, that trouble is real” and mister that’s the Edmonton Oilers today. General manager Ken Holland tells us (via Daniel Nugent-Bowman Q&A, link below) he’ll wait and see how the next two weeks go, and then make the call (buyer or seller).
I’m all about the build, for me that’s the fun of watching a team win. Brick by brick, piece by piece. The Sather Oilers, the Herzog Cardinals, the Alou Expos, hell the Torrey Islanders and the Pollock Canadiens although at the time I was either too young or focused on the Allman Brothers. Comes a time, when you have to push for a new day, sending away some youth for a ticket to the postseason. Get those leaders battle hardened, get Connor McDavid 10 more playoff games. That’s what this season must be about, and I expect will be about. Holland needs a goalie, not because goaltending is the only problem, but because it’s the easiest fix. He needs to do it today.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen is Oilers’ unlikely overnight sensation
- Lowetide: Oilers sign two Condors as procurement window opens.
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ quiet man, is making loud noises on a new line
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- DNB: Mike Smith keeps showing he’s not the Oilers’ answer in net.
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 1-1-1, 3 points in 3 game
- Oilers in 2021-22: 30-22-4, 64 points in 56 games
Last night’s loss can be corrected, a win against the Flames Monday night would be a perfect market correction for the organization. Does this team have it in them? They’re down a few players here. That’s going to be a tough game. Maybe you run Mike Smith as a last chance Texaco? I would not do it, but the Oilers handling of goalies is a mystery worthy of Revelations. The Oilers are on a trajectory to finish with 94 points, that’s probably a little shy of the playoffs. If the Oilers continue this month as they have the first three games, the record will be 34-26-5, 73 points in 65 games. It would require 25 points in the final 17 games to secure enough points to (probably) guarantee the postseason. I will tell you this: It will be a Peace Frog summer if this team can’t make the playoffs.
GOALTENDER
Mike Smith stopped 24 of 28, .857 and now owns a save percentage of .891. Among NHL goaltenders with 560 or more minutes played this season, Smith ranks No. 58 among 66 goaltenders. Koskinen is No. 40 (.904) and Stuart Skinner is .913 (No. 22) across the league. Skinner played a fine game Friday for the Bakersfield Conors and remains ready and waiting. Smith was scheduled to talk to media last night, but couldn’t make it because he was undergoing treatment. I do think there were signs in the third period that he’s having some trouble in getting to places under control, and have suggested it might be a nagging injury, but he was well enough to start last night so we’ll see if he can answer the bell tomorrow night (if called upon).
The first GA (Caufueld goal) came via a blind pass/shot along the wall by Markus Niemelainen. He caught it square but it was easily intercepted at the blue line. The young blue made a mistake, that’s going to happen. He’s in the middle of a period where things aren’t going as well as before, and he’ll need to work through it.
The second GA was a bang-bang play off a rebound, Smith stopped the first shot (from the top of the circle) but the rebound came flying out and Gallagher did a nice job of sending it right back. William Lagesson was defending on the play, he had position, but the rebound was cherry. I think the goalie might have harnessed the first shot, but sometimes you have to give the other man his due. Nice play by Gallagher.
The third GA was another PP marker, both Leon Draisailt and Cody Ceci were protecting against the pass, helluva shot by Suzuki going shelf.
The fourth GA (Lehkonen goal) saw Smith overplay Stu Kulak, leaving the net wide open. Too active in the net by plenty.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse played 26 minutes, showed some calm feet but didn’t get in the way enough to impact plays. He couldn’t quite contain Kulak on the Lehkonen goal, and that was a big play (although he had every right to expect Smith to be in the net after the exchange). Cody Ceci had a couple of giveaways, the puck was heading in a good direction most of the time this pairing was on the ice. He was involved in the double coverage on the Suzuki PP goal, but I’m think that was Leon’s man.
Markus Niemelainen had the mistake discussed above, I think he probably thought someone would have been at the point by then but it looked bad for the rookie. He did get 28 seconds of PK time and no disasters took place, and on a night when two goals went in on the PK, that counts. William Lagesson was involved in the Gallagher goal, but that rebound was speeding. He had two shots on goal and a couple of nice outlets.
Duncan Keith had some chaos in his game, and didn’t do much offensively that I recall. He also played just 14:15 at even strength, may have gotten lost when his partner fell it. Evan Bouchard made a nice pass to send Zach Hyman on his way for the Ryan McLeod goal, and then became ill. Apparently it’s nothing serious and he may be ready for action against the Flames.
Philip Broberg had his best game as an Oilers player. He had a quality chance off the rush, driving down LW and getting off a dangerous shot on goal. He had four shots on goal, nice passes, lots of strong skating and good in coverage. And he played RH side. The most encouraging part of the evening was Broberg’s fine play on his off side. He could solve a lot of problems.
FORWARDS
Evander Kane scored a nice goal right after the Habs got the lead early, it seemed to calm the group down and came from a brilliant Draisaitl pass. Kane had six shots on net, four hits, and for the second game in a row delivered what is expected of him. Leon Draisaitl sent the pass to Kane, had one HDSC and I think Suzuki was his man on the PK rotation. He is also part of the power play that is letting this team down, that’s a group effort but the team sorely misses those bonus goals. Kailer Yamamoto had a chance so beautiful I wept, but couldn’t cash it. His skating was noticeable on a night when all the forwards could wheel, but that lack of finish won’t quiet the critics.
Zach Hyman did great work on the McLeod goal, drove to the net like a cannonball. Four shots, one HDSC, created a rebound and drew a penalty. That’s kind of his thing, about six positive columns covered every night. Connor McDavid looked gassed to me, one of the few times this season where he was measurably off his game. He looked tired, as opposed to indifferent. I expect we’ll see him flying tomorrow night. Ryan McLeod scored a great goal, and is on track to finish 9-12-21 in 71 games. It’s been some time since an Oilers second-round pick delivered those numbers as a rookie.
Warren Foegele had seven hits and a HDSC, I imagine he kicks himself every time he gets taken off the McDavid line. There was a chance here, while Jesse Puljujarvi was injured, for someone to grab a piece of that job, but Foegele couldn’t get it done. I still like him, he’s on course for 10-19-29 in 82 games. Devin Shore worked hard, had one reasonable look (left side, inside the circle barely, through a defender, but he didn’t score) and remains wildly unpopular throughout the land. Derek Ryan had one shot on goal, had good five-on-five possession numbers but was also 0-1 goals in the discipline. After his fab road trip, a quieter game was expected.
Kyle Turris played very little, had a giveaway and a takeaway. Tyler Benson played 9:04, had three hits, played with both McDavid and Draisaitl and made a couple of nice passes. He is on pace for 1-2-3 in 42 games this season, he’ll need to deliver a little more offense if he’s going to stay.
THE CONDORS
I keep reading in the comments section that Dylan Holloway isn’t ready for the NHL, so thought I’d give my two cents on the situation. Holloway is ready, really he’s been good enough since the moment he stepped on AHL ice, it’s a matter of making sure he can impact the game often. He has scored 5-6-11 in 19 games, so the Oilers could leave him in Bakersfield until he’s at a point-per-game (and he’ll get there), or they can call him up now. My own feeling on this issue isn’t strong either way, but the team needs a boost, and I do feel strongly that Stuart Skinner should be recalled today. If you’re buying one plane ticket, might as well buy two.
If you’re ever watching an AHL game and not certain about how close a rookie forward is to being NHL-ready, count how many times he touches the puck. I’ve mentioned this countless times since Holloway got to Bakersfield, but he’s all over the puck all the time. Just a genuinely talented player.
Just got to watching the Woodcroft and Archibald pressers.
Anyone else get the impression maybe Archibald didn’t need to be out as long as he was?
The impression I got is that Archibald really didn’t want to answer questions not directly related “to hockey”.
Haha, yes, though potentially/partly related.
Next three games:
Calgary
Washington
Tampa Bay
Who here thinks Kenny survives the summer using injuries and Covid as an excuse?
I am certain he stays.
How many years minimum does it take a proper gm to turn around a flagging franchise? A new GM now is preparing the team for post 2nd contracts of McDavid and draisaitl. (I’m not one that is gonna jump on the “they are leaving” bandwagon).
One.
Modern sports both necessitates and enables the instant turnaround. Just have to be willing to actually play your cards and trust your judgement/work.
Most won’t because they fundamentally don’t trust themselves.
Rob Blake took over the LA Kings in 2017, and they have drafted well and done well in free agency and trade.
Quick fixes don’t work.
They actually wind up settings you back and initiating another rebuild.
We all remember Chia and his win now moves.
Chabot takes a late penalty (super soft call) and the Knights score with 5 seconds left to beat the Sens 2-1 in reg.
Eichel with the goal.
I find the Smith situation endlessly fascinating.
Lowetide used to refer to it with terms like “addled thinking”
The Oilers have a pattern of making a decision like “to get Smith going” with a concerted effort to push starts on him despite it seeming like an endlessly stupid idea from the get go, early and rapid negative reinforcement… but they persevere on the obstinate path in spite of mounting evidence to the contrary of their plan. It’s incredible.
Good gord he hasn’t looked like he’s healthy enough to move properly around the crease.
Who was the architect of this debacle?
If you have to ask the question…
Old boys club. Probably lowe and MacT. Maybe even grezt had a hand in it. The decision was made at the wine summit.
Jets outshoot the Rangers 45-22 but lose 4-1.
Hellebuyck .822
Shesterkin .978
That should be the end of the Jets playoff aspirations so expect the sale to begin.
This is absolutely wild, the cap hit charge for injured players:
https://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com/2021/10/202122-team-injury-breakdowns.html
Look at the flames, not just the healthiest but by a massive delta even to the 2nd least injured team.
Wild stuff
Credit to the link to NHL Sid:
https://oilersnation.com/2022/03/06/some-thoughts-on-edmonton-crowded-ld-situation-and-why-their-decision-to-play-smith-over-skinner-could-cost-them-a-playoff-spot/
Courtesy of NHL injury viz, Edmonton ranks 7th in the league in CHIP, a per-game cap-hit charge of a player missing that game as the result of injuries/illnesses (higher CHIP = more injuries). In regards to defencemen alone, Edmonton is 2nd in the league in D-men CHIP, and they’ve lost a total of 133 defenceman man-games; the most in the entire league. A total of eight different left-defencemen have suited up for a minimum of one game this season.
The Flames must have the most superbly conditioned players in the league and their coach doesn’t overplay them.
Or, they’re just lucky 🙂
When even Chris Tanev has played every game you know your luck is just nuts
Tanev didn’t miss a game last year either.
Must be something in the Calgary water.
Yeah their injury luck this season is insane. Might go down as the all-time healthiest season.
Unless of course, it chooses this point of the season to regress to the mean. It doesn’t have to. It can take its damn time if it likes. But eventually it will.
This team has had so many injuries this year… I wonder what they could have been.. obviously the only play is patience but time is running out on the playoffs.
A factor in the injury woes of the Oilers is age.
Smith and Keith account for a very large proportion of the team’s man games lost to injury.
Their man games lost to forwards is actually below average.
https://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com/2021/10/202122-team-injury-breakdowns.html
Injuries to Vegas forwards have been much more prevalent.
Talking about prospects,I was thinking about Tyler Tullio and who he reminds me of as a player. To me he is looking like my former roommate in junior Dean Evason. Prolific junior scorer with leadership qualities. If he turns out to be this player that would be a big win for us. Almost drafted in the same spots in their draft years. jmo😄
I used to love the Whalers and Bruins rivalry one of the best in Hockey it was intense and brutal hockey. For a smaller player Dean wasn’t scared of nobody plus he had alright hands.
That trade by Holland is looking very good.
Traded down from a spot where Savoie is listed to go to get Savoie and Tulio.
Who knows if Tulio (or Savoie) will ever “make it” but arrows up since draft day for both.
Love the fact that Holland and his staff seem to have put a premium on “shooters” – Lavoie, Petrov, Savoie, Tulio…… plus shots.
Bourgault I guess too?
I don’t actually know about his shot, but the guy is scoring goals at a higher rate than any of the four you mention (Savoie in a higher degree of difficulty league though).
Still, Bourgault’s combined draft and draft +1 stat line is 54 42-41-83, which is better than all these guys results in the years after they were drafted (and I agree they’re a great crop with lots of skill).
Another tough result for the Oilers.
Dallas takes down Minnesota 6-3 to solidify its hold on a wildcard spot.
Of note…Jason Robertson, AKA the Filipino Flash with another hat trick to lead the way.
That’s 6 goals in his past two games and 8 in his last 5.
Woody says “maintenance day” for Yamamoto.
Bouch is feeling a bit better today – they’ll see how he’s feeling closer to the flight to Calgary.
I’m just going to put my fingers in my ears, say “na na na” and ignore all the bad in that game but instead focus on one of the very few positive notes. That was pretty much the first time we saw Broberg looking like himself in an NHL arena. That’s his playing style, it’s not close to him firing on all cylinders, a lot more crazy rushes up the ice and joining the attack when fully on, but that’s a glimmer of the guy we’re hoping for. More active and involved.
A few of those Broberg rushes were such a breath of fresh air. I didn’t know what to do with the feelings I had after watching those…
Summarizing!
Petrov finishes with the pair of aPPles and is named 2nd star in a 4-2 win.
The Bourg did not play, having missed a dozen games now with injury.
No prospects are in action on the morrow. And if The Bourg does not return Tuesday, then the next prospecting update will be Wednesday.
I really liked what I saw when Benson played with skill. He made a few brilliant passes. I know he’s not producing a lot, but I also like his board game and the amount of hits he makes. IT’s hard for a passer to produce points without finishers. I hope he gets some more chances. Maybe Benson with McDavid makes sense. He has the ability to find players when they are in clean air. Might allow McDavid to find open space and get hit with passes by Benson. Something that Draisaitl is good at.
His shift at the end of the first period with McDavid and Hyman was AWESOME – that was one of the best shifts of the year for the team and he was a part of it.
Alas, the trio was not reunited in the 3rd.
Its a bit (alot) frustrating.
It’s baffling he doesn’t get more of a chance.
It would allow McLeod to get back to his actual position which would only strengthen the group as a whole.
Nuge making the 3rd line hum is the key to everything.
Jim Rutherford has won a few Cups as a GM.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said “I think it’s as simple as this: Jim Rutherford and his new group … they’ve been going out and they’ve been getting the information on what the value of their players are on the open market….But what the Canucks have also been doing is for some of those players who may need new contracts soon, they’ve been asking about the possibilities of (those UFAs) staying: ‘What is your next contract potentially going to look like?”
This ^ is what I hope Ken Holland is doing. Learning the cost of signing his RFA’s and gauging the interest the Kane camp has in possibly staying in Edmonton and at what cost/term.
Sounds like Skinner up and will back up Koskinen on Monday.
Smith having an ‘illness’ rather than injury complicates things though, so not at all clear what happens going forward.
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1500569721636155393
I call BS on “non-Covid illness” and think Holland is still kicking that can down the road (the cat being actually getting Smith off the roster) but baby steps:
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
·
34m
Coach Woodcroft notes that a non-COVID illness kept Mike Smith off the ice for today’s practice & that Stuart Skinner will be recalled from the
@Condors
& join the #Oilers in Calgary tomorrow to back up Koskinen.
Darn cold tore his groin again
Bouch left the game sick
At least he left
I was expecting Smith to be IR/LTIR’d today based on him not being able to speak to the media last night due to ‘treatment’.
I’d like to have some resolution here too (ie- Smith is injured and Skinner will be on the roster going forward), but this is not that.
In terms of calling bs. Well I’m not sure when there’d be any better chance than now to make a Skinner/Smith swap. Since it’s not being made definitively it suggests the non-Covid illness probably is legit (Bouchard is also sick after all). And I’m not sure how kicking the can down the road would help anyway.
Here we remain. At least in the short term we’ve got what everyone wants.
So Smith took the net while fighting a stomach illness last night, this man is believing he’s Micheal Jordan when he’s more like a left handed Carson Wentz pass attempt.
Tough decisions for Holland. Many areas for upgrade – RW, RD, LD, Goalie and if Kane isn’t back next season then a LW is needed too. Does filling any of holes move the needle this year if the team gets healthy? Only if it’s a stud Dman or a stud goalie, IMO.
This Mike Smith situation is honestly unacceptable. The Oilers are currently out of the playoffs with 26 games to go and they are waiting on a 40 year goalie with a .891 sv% to find his game. All this while they have a superior option playing in the AHL. For heavens sake call Skinner up and cut bait with Smith. Don’t even think about a 3 goalie option as that is just awkward and there is no time to be experimenting with that. Holland made the mistake of waiting too long to get rid of Tippett and now he is doing the same thing with Smith
This. Time is running out on the season and waiting on a 40 year old broken down goalie to get his game back is a poor strategy. Bring up Skinner, run him and Koski till the deadline seems to be the correct short-term play – while continuing to see what the trade market can bring.
But at this point, there is no excuse for playing Smith in any more games. He just doesn’t have it anymore. Age always wins.
Another aPPle for Petrov, this one of the primary variety as North Bay restores its 2-goal bulge in the second.
And Petrov, having had enough fun setting up goals, adds one himself.
His 31st goal of the campaign–an ES marker–puts the Battalion up 4-1 late in the second.
EDIT: Or not. Goal has been nullified. Still 3-1.
Kings beat Buffalo 2-0 with Athanasiou scoring both goals. Thiose hockey gords really know how to pile on, don’t they?
EDIT: Make it 3-0 as Dustin Brown (spits) goalsucks a meaningless empty netter in the dying seconds just to ensure I am even more pissed off than I was already, 🤬
It actually ended 3-0…Dustin Brown scored with 7 seconds remaining.
Trolls are, she says, most likely driven by a need for attention. “Their comments often spark attention from others, so it can give the illusion of being important,” she explains. “And this sense of importance and centre of attention usually compensates for how they really feel in their life.
https://www.google.com/search?q=why+do+trolls+want+attention
L.A looks like a team that not only wants to make the playoffs but do some damage. It’s not the trolls fault Edmonton is a soft team that’s all on the 25 million dollar man Holland.
Now explain every other comment.
It is much easier to add a one way player to a defensive team lacking offense, no?
Curious if Skinner will get recalled without anyone on IR. Also curious as to where he’ll be playing next year. I’m hoping as our backup. Would he not make a good backup?
I think he’s ready to be at least a 30-game backup but, of course, we don’t know for sure and we will only know if, well, the GM puts him on the roster so the coach can play him in games.
Shit, for all we know, he’s ready to be a 50 game “starter” – goalies pop all the time and he’s at an age where that can definitely be the case.
He needs NHL games so we (and management) can gain highly important information heading in to 2022/23.
Broberg looks comfortable on the right side.
kane is realizing he’s got to be ready for a Drai pass that will come at any time. Those 2 are very good together. A shooter and what Drai needs. Finally.
He is also from Western Canada with his child near by. He may want to stay if a contract can be worked out. He would be good addition going forward.
call up Holloway now. Give him a few weeks prior to Nuge and Jesse returning.
I know everyone likes Niemelainen because he hits a lot, but he doesn’t appear to be an NHL player right now.
His corsi is second worst among Oilers defencemen this year. His GF% is 37.
He’s basically Kris Russell but lacks Russell’s ability to not make mistakes that result in goals.
I agree, he still has a lot of rough edges to smooth out. He might be an excellent 3rd pairing Dman in 2 years, but today he his passing and decision-making need work.
This team is short on steady calm defensemen to help with breaking in a rookie, let alone the amount of rookies needing to be played now.
Which is why they need a vet LD
Holland won’t do anything RD, not his MO
Lagesson is much more NHL ready than Niemelainen right now and it shows in their deployment.
Niemo has struggled for a little while now – he’s made plays directly leading to goals against in consecutive games now.
No way Turris should be in instead of Holloway at this point. Turris looked like he came out of a10 year retirement last night. Is it time to call up Vincent Desharnais also along with Skinner? That’s a lot of rookies.
As i mentioned when I posted it, his placement at 2RW for practice really meant that Yamo will be fine for tomorrow as there is no chance that Turris plays there to start the game.
Woody confirmed that its just a maintenance day for Kailer.
LAK with a 1-0 lead over BUF at the end of the second period.
SOG 24-14 KIngs
AA with the lone goal.
Trolls are, she says, most likely driven by a need for attention. “Their comments often spark attention from others, so it can give the illusion of being important,” she explains. “And this sense of importance and centre of attention usually compensates for how they really feel in their life.
https://www.google.com/search?q=why+do+trolls+want+attention
It also compensates for a small wiener and no love from their mother.
Petrov collects a secondary aPPle late in the first as North Bay opens up a 2-0 lead.
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
3m
No Mike Smith, Bouchard or Yamamoto at today’s practice. Kassian (full cage) & Archibald full participants.
Per R. Wilkins, Turris is with Drai and Kane – obviously a placeholder for Kailer and likely a sign that Kailer will be fine for tomorrow as there is no chance Turris actually lines up in that spot.
I honestly haven’t been watching closely but Woodcroft drastically clawed back Bouchard’s PK minutes when it seemed like he was part of a fairly successful PK team? Don’t know if the numbers back it up, just thinking about the special teams struggles.
Teemu Hartikainen has left his KHL team.
Sign the man!
This.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=112587
A very impressive job last season.
Nice set of seasons for him.
He’s always been a player. I would show his first career goal in an instructional video for forwards. The BS coaching/management combos at the time screwed the guy out of an NHL career. Thankfully for him he took an alternative and ran with with it.
I’m not sure how, or if, terminating a KHL contract would effect this but, generally, if an NHL team signs a player in-season that has played in Europe that season, he needs to clear waivers.
Likely true but with the growing number of players who have terminated their KHL deals, astute GM’s should be looking at adding “free” players for the stretch run.
Yes, of course, but are they really “free players” if you have to waive them prior to activating them? Presuming there is more than one team interested, the signing team likely doesn’t get the player at the end of the day.
They are free if you get them.
Last I heard there were about 20 players who have terminated their contracts so chances are pretty good if you sign one you’ll get him.
I don’t think that’s true and I’ve explained why – if the player is “worth getting”, he’d likely have another team interested in him.
If the Avs, for example, were to sign Hartikainen, it won’t be for an impactful cap hit and I would presume he’d be claimed on waivers – by the Oilers, for example.
At this rate Smith is going to cost two NHL coaches their jobs this year. Impressive. Every time he plays the Oilers are spotting their competition points in the standings.
Now I know the Oilers aren’t going to make much of a run in the playoffs (not enough depth) but how is a team that should make the playoffs running Smith and Turris out there in games that need to be won? They are playing only 11 forwards and one is Turris? That’s embarrassing. Get Skinner and Holloway on the roster right now. Maybe Griffith too given our forward situation.
Prospectings!
Petrov and the North Bay Battalion take to the ice @ noon, while the heretofore Bourg-less Shawinigan Cataractes do likewise @ 1 p.m. (Both times Wainwright time).
Petrov is tied for third in ES goals in the OHL (24). And while he has 6 PP goals, one would think he could have so many more with that shot of his.
But the Oilers have no shortage of PP weaponry amongst their prospects:
The Bourg is 2nd in PP goals in the Q (13)
Tullio is 3rd in PP goals in the O (13)
Savoie is 3rd in PP goals in NCAA Div-1 (11)
The Bourg remains out of the lineup:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cataractes_Shaw/status/1500546757683412994?cxt=HHwWhICsye3UgdMpAAAA
Shawinigan hopes he doesn’t have to go under the knife, as that would require…Cataracte surgery.
What is his injury?
What a bummer last night was. The three things that have buried this team since December were highlighted perfectly last night.
1 – Goaltending. It’s just not good.
2 – Special Teams. See 1, your goalie needs to be your best penalty killer. The structure has looked weak but seems decent when the best personnel is available. The PP is predictable. It is good when either the puck or feet are moving. They finally started using the jam play from Hyman last night, just need 29 to come down from his shooting position to clean up.
3 – Injuries. They are real and spectacular. The fact that they are hanging around with the number of man games lost and the quality of players lost is impressive.
This team above all those things has no team defence,no identity, no structure. This is not a playoff team.
Leavins said in his 9 thoughts today that no other team has lost the number of D the Oil have this year. Insert the number of inexperienced D we’ve had this year and you can expect to see a lack of Team D and structure. The identity part needs to be addressed with ManWood and the core pieces. They are a playoff team but won’t go far.
Holland gambled on a 40 year-old to have a up season and also not one physical D in the line-up. Since Nurse got the payday his physicality has gone bye-bye. Oilers one of the easiest teams to play in the league opposition has it way to easy in front of the net.
We are seeing in real time what happens when you compare players that get opportunities to play with McDavid or Drai.
Yamamoto, RNH, (until recently for RNH) nearly exclusively with the two best players in the NHL.
Foegele is almost painful to watch play with skilled players at times.
Kane walks onto the team and blows by some very prominent Oiler names in 17 games. I mean he looked a bit rusty in the first few even.
Kane has 8 goals in 17 games and is passing guys like they are standing still. ( truthfully Kane should have more goals even given the looks he has been given as well)
Like last night, some of the ‘ looks’ RNH and Yams have seen the last 2 years have been incomprehensible.
Kane is converting them. Pure and simple.
I predict Holloway will convert them as well.
I’ve been watching Holloway closely the past 3 years and with Foegele and Yamo and even Jesse unable to cash in on the opportunities given, I have no doubt the Holloway would be better. Maybe not so much this season with his wrist and rust.
I had compared him to Foegele in September, as Foegele with better hands. He is exactly who Connor needs on his left wing today.
I think the idea of letting prospects over-ripen is a good strategy, but the Oilers don’t have that luxury. Holland has really started to bug me with his Tambellini-esque dithering. For the love of Lumley he needs to do some things that apparently go against his nature.
We need way less Duane Toddleberry and more Usain Bolt in his tempo. Old man Turris, 40 year old injury-prone emotional goalies, and Brad Malone aren’t going to get them into the playoffs.
it seems that the worth of RNH is showing itself to a large degree. Special teams and 5×5 he is missed
On a positive note, to my eye, Evander Kane is starting to find his game and settle in. Yes, he’s produced from the moment he was inserted in to the lineup but I feel that, now, he’s starting to impact the game more consistently – making plays and creating energy in all zones.
can someone with a better pulse on the Condors season tell me how Vincent Desharnais is right-handed, 6’7″, 0.5 PPG, +30(!!)….and appears to be signed to an AHL only deal?
Vincent Desharnais has an two way contract starting next season .
Deharnais earned his 2 AHL deals and has progressed year after year since turning pro.
He took a big step last season and an even bigger step this season and just earned an NHL deal starting next season.
Deharnais is a great AHL player and a huge part of the Condors.
His biggest issue is his skating and it may preclude an NHL career – time will tell.
“I think the tiny bit of exposure you have to a tiny fraction of scientists trying to simplify their thoughts for TV or articles or mapping them as well as possible to public policy decisions has given you this extremely inaccurate viewpoint.
Don’t mistake the dilettante mathematics of public hockey analytics with that used in modern science.”
Hey Fuhrious
I wasn’t able to respond to you. ‘Why you heff to be so med’? Heh heh.
Given you have no idea what my background is or what I know, that comes across as a tad condescending and a tad arrogant. No worries, but I felt I wanted to mention that.
I am not saying that scientists and others that use math professionally aren’t rigorous and well intentioned, just that they aren’t always right. This is self evident. Sometimes the certainty of those involved – not always – and the attitudes toward those that don’t agree with them, isn’t helpful. Or respectful.
We have all seen numerous things that were widely held as true end up changed later, in science and other areas of research and study. The light math and analysis of hockey is one, I think of economics which I studied as another.
A lot of missed marks in both, not a lot of comment or retraction after from those that were nasty to other’s views when their positions went down. It’s a problem I think.
I agree.
I didn’t see the original comment. But you get a team of data scientists in a room together to explain what a set of data means whether it’s for a company like Meta, or for a sports team you will have arguing. And if you don’t then perhaps you need to hire someone who will start the arguement.
This is because the data does not have absolute certainty.
You’re right, I don’t know what your background is. I do, however, know what it isn’t because your statements clearly conveyed that information.
You: Giraffes sure have some cool wings.
Me: You obviously know nothing about giraffes, why are you spreading these lies?
You: Hey, that’s, like, arrogant man, you don’t know what my background is and you should value my opinion.
There is no significant list of topics where the modern scientific community has been dead certain of something and then been proven wrong.
It’s so easy–and now so popular–to just say “oh, scientists are often wrong” as a facile attempt to discredit any given statement. However, this is just an empty statement people say when they don’t want to go and learn enough to reproduce the original scientist’s work or to test their own hypothesis. I mean, sure, go learn how to do a Floquet-Magnus expansion of the Liouville von-Neumann equation and find mistakes in the primary literature; that’s a critique I can get behind. But it’s annoying when people just spout off with “mmmm…. I haven’t spent any time trying understand what you did, but I’m still going to discount it”
Paraphrasing Rob Brown last night… this team is so bad at both five on five and special teams that the only way they will win consistently is with an absolutely ELITE goalie bailing out their mistakes.
I suspect that is hyperbole from Rob. It has been demonstrated that league average tending would have at 10 less GA. Not counting the brain cramp goals that are impossible to separate out.
He’s trying to make a point. What point do you think that is?
That he doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about in this particular instance?
Why not just say “the Oilers need Varlamov, Makar, Hedberg, Bergeron as 3rd line center and the TBL bottom six wingers from last year to win consistently.”
The late, great, Howard Wilkinson: If we’d have scored more than them, we’d have won.”
Yes I’m sure the point he was trying to make was he doesn’t have a clue.
Oh sarcasm. That’s a useful response.
The fact that Rob Brown willingly ignores evidence that with AVERAGE, not ELITE, goaltending the Oilers would be sitting a lot prettier tells me that his point is pointless.
So that’s what he’s getting paid for? If the Oilers had elite tending, they’d be a lot better? Inspired.
That’s how I typically respond to equally useful disingenuous responses.
😛
Rob Brown is wrong. Very wrong in fact. The reason we stats is to overcome eye bias. Eye bias last night said everything is horrible and nothing is good.
Eye bias is bad cause everything is pretty well done minus a set of special teams that has zero confidence, zero anticipation and zero urgency. Seriously, this is a good team, even better when they arent missing half the lineup due to injury but still a good team. That’s why the actual data line is pretty good as LT posted above. They’ll make the playoffs with ease don’t worry.
Them lackluster special teams though.
It was in full display last night on the PK, everyone was so focused on not getting burned on cross ice passes or down low back to the slot passes that they repeatedly held those checks and let Suzuki come down for a shot. If they cheat to Suzuki they’d get burned on the cross seam.
When the PK and PP (have been some flashes here) were humming early guys were moving their feet, they weren’t standing around stationary. That’s a lack of confidence and urgency in my books. I don’t want guys running around just for the sake of it but sitting back on special teams is dangerous. I say split McD/Drai off PP1 just for a game or two. Best of luck to Woody.
I feel sorta bad for Mike Smith. I was quite harsh on Koski during his bad stretch so fair is fair here but physically Smith is a day late and dollar short right now. That 4th goal was plain weird and he’s so deep in his net you gotta wonder if it’s an inability to get out quick vs some sort of strategic gambit. Koski was frustrating cause it was a Talbot style couldn’t stop a beach ball in lacrosse gear thing. Smith might be done?
Way too much emotion today from the last two games. Travel and injuries are real things and despite the loudness of some posters does in fact matter. When everyone not injured is batting 3 spots too high that matters. It matters when over half your defense is rookies.
Need to fix them special teams and decide on a goalie duo. Otherwise, keep on keeping on. Much better play since Tippett and the players themselves look much more engaged.
Kurt Leavins asks the question . Is Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s legendary patience becoming a problem ? Good question .
“Patience my ass. I am going to kill something”
Holloway started his season like he was shot out of a cannon – all over the puck and ice, like a young Taylor Hall, for 4-5 games.
Then reality set in and the nuances of pro hockey took over – Holloway continued to be a prominent and effective player but he also showed that he was a rookie pro with lots to learn and develop – lots of decision mistakes and poor reads in the defensive zone – no worries at all – he was still a high end player.
I missed two weeks of the Condors when I was away but watched both games this weekend in full. On Friday night, the entire Condors team (but for Skinner) were awful for two periods – they had 10 shots. Holloway was among the worst of them, maybe 10 giveaways.
Then, for the 3rd period and OT, Holloway was as dominant an AHL player as I’ve seen in a long time – he was unreal.
He carried that through to last night’s game and he is really killing the AHL – even if the boxcars don’t jump.
He very well could be ready. He’d likely make a positive impact to the NHL lineup. I would be fine with a call-up and I’d be excited for him to play in the NHL and watch him.
At the same time, I’m not sure that’s best for his development. I’m not sure it isn’t either.
I don’t agree with the statement “the NHL isn’t a development league” – players continue their development in the NHL every day.
With that said, is his development best served in the AHL or the NHL? I don’t know the answer to that question.
This could be a scenario where, yes, a call-up makes the Oilers better (as he is a top prospect with NHL ready skills) but, at the same time, the development of the player is best served in the AHL (i.e. he’ll develop better/faster/etc. by more AHL games – top 5 on 5 and PP minutes, etc.).
I’m not saying that is the case, maybe the NHL is the right league for him right now, I’m just saying I don’t know.
Would bringing him up hurt his progress,or improve it?Seems to me that even at this stage,he is better than some of the lesser players,and they are not going to get better,but he is.If I am Holland,I bring up Holloway,and Skinner right now,and maybe Marody.I would trade Yamo,Barrie,Kassian,a prospect,and a draft pick to Seattle for Giorgio,and Eberle.Then use the first rounder for Chycrun,or Merlin’s,or Georgieve.What do you think,OP.
That’s the main point of my post – i don’t know if bringing him up to the NHL would hinder or promote his development.
As I said, I have little doubt that he could help the NHL team as he has some NHL ready skills and his a top prospect – he’d help the team over the likes of Turris, Shore, etc.
At the same time, while winning is primary, development of the organization’s top prospect, is also VERY important and we just don’t know where that’s best served right now, NHL or AHL.
Of course, while Holland has stated he doesn’t like to “yo-yo” players (and, once called up, the plan is to stick), at the end of the day, calling up Holloway and giving him a handful of games won’t kill his development.
If he struggles and his icetime is reduced, etc., he can be re-assigned back down easily. Its not like a Puljujarvi at 18 scenario where it was pretty clear the org “promised” to keep him on the roster for 40 games in order to vest UFA years.
I think Holloway processes the game so well that he will adjust very quickly. At the very worst he will bring what Foegele offers today. That is better than what Shore offers today. Will this harm him? I doubt it, he can keep up in the physical department (skating and physicality) he will need to adjust in other ways and he has a track record of having to make these adjustments where he has done so.
I am not worried about Holloway if he is given his NHL audition, in fact better now when they are still in the hunt, than later when the Kings and Canucks have passed you by with your hood up and the mechanic is scratching his head still trying to figure out what he is even looking at.
Going through LT’s write-up and looking at “the numbers”, those numbers were MUCH better than I remember from watching the game.
Aside from Broberg and the odd other player, I didn’t think many, if any, skaters played well but the numbers look like the Oilers outplayed the Habs.
Was it all tending and special teams?
The Oilers got out-tended and were TERRIBLE on special teams but at least they continue to improve at 5 on 5 (at least by the numbers last night).
They had stretches at 5v5 where they were very good. And stretches where they were bad. consistency is a real thing for this team.
But nothing was worse than the special teams last night. Worse than Smith even. Just horrible.
I keep looking at the clock waiting for noon to see if there is Mike Smith waiver news then I keep reminding myself that, in reality, there is almost no chance that happens.
What I do think is realistic, is an IR assignment and Skinner recalled.
Lots have talked about Smith on IR/LTIR and I’ve resisted the notion on the basis that Smith isn’t going to agree to some sort of “fake injury” in order to move him off the active roster. Now, of course, watching last night, there is likely a real injury and we can have a real IR assignment – again.
If that’s not actually the case then its time, time for Holland to make a “tough decision” and waive the man in order to bring up Skinner.
No, no cop out with 3 goalies on the roster – make the decision.
Agreed!!!! So what do you do with Smith next season. Assuming he negotiated hard for the second year of the contract so he won’t willing retire. If he is still injured you could LTIR him? If healthy do you bury his contract in the minors for cap relief? Good grief that was a bad move by Holland….
Is a buyout not an option for a 35+ contract?
They altered the 35+ rules this off-season and the inability to get cap relief for retirements, buyout, AHL assignment, etc. only applies to front-loaded deals and doesn’t apply to back-loaded deals.
Smith’s contract is back loaded and the cap limiting 35+ rules do NOT apply.
The Oilers would get full cap relief if he retires, $1.125MM of cap relief if buried and cap savings on a buyout (yr 1 cap hit: $533K, yr 2 cap hit $833K).
The injury is father time catching up to him . Keep looking at the clock .
At this point,even at perfect health,Smith is never again going to be as good as Skinner!Last nights stats while terrible,we’re even worse if we consider the two he let in that we’re called back.An NHL goalie who lets in 7 goals against one of the worst teams in the NHL,is no longer even an AHL keeper.Put him on IR,or send him to BAKO as a goalie coach!
I am also watching the clock, waiting for the sun to pass over the yard arm. 🍺
There aren’t really any “sellable” assets – by “selling”, we mean moving pending UFAs to playoff teams for picks/prospects.
Turris – has clear waivers, no value (not even a 7th)
Sceviour – has cleared waivers, no value (not even a 7th)
Malone – no value (not even a 7th)
Russell – perhaps if he was healthy a 5th-7th rounder but he’s not
Archibald – perhaps if he shows he’s healthy and up to speed but not much of a return
Koskinen – no value at his cap hit
The only one is Evander Kane – he’s got a full NMC but I would think he’d waive if the team isn’t a playoff team.
—————
With all that said, I don’t agree that they need to “sell” – sure, if they crap out until the deadline and are 7 points out, sure, go to sell mode but we (or at least I) are not there.
Bring Skinner up, see if the Mikko/Stuart combo can calm the tending issues and, if they can, this team is a playoff team.
With even goaltending, I think the team plays better nightly and is a legit playoff team – of course, the damn injuries are making that tough.
I’m not saying to buy at the deadline but not to sell – there isn’t any value coming back in any sale anyways (except for Kane).
This year agreed there is nothing to move out that means much to anyone
If the Oilers start Smith against Calgary, they’ll get blown out.
It doesn’t matter who’s in goal , they’ll get blown out .
Spector getting under McDavid’s skin again.
Elaborate?
Spec asked him something along the lines of “McDavid/Drai had a tough time trying to battle through but the Habs top player’s had free reign, do they need to play tougher in the defensive zone”.
McDavid mumbled something like “we’re back to this question again….” prior to answering respectfully.
Thanks.
The news story today isn’t the goaltending. That’s the old story. The cat came back story.
The story today is the skaters not playing Manwood’s game plan. Returning to bad habits: fly-by checks, loose gaps and no back pressure by the Fs, individuals acting alone, high risk passes…
That Nemo giveaway that led to goal #1 is the perfect example of the men on the ice refusing to play as a five man unit and supporting each other. Just a horrible display of bad choices by everyone.
If they don’t turn this around, and get back to playing the right way, this will be how may coaches they’ve tuned out? How does a team in this desperate a playoff race, let their commitment to hard play just fade away?
Blood in the streets is right, LT.
What other NHL team is relying on four young defensemen playing regularly in the line up ?
I’d like to see Kenny go all out and get Chiarot & Lehkonen in a deal with the Habs and also grab another shutdown defenseman , the 35 year old RHD with the Flyers , his name escapes me . Even if it’s just to cover for Nurse while he’s running around trying to score .
They really shouldn’t be buying. That might get them into the playoffs but they won’t be a threat once they make it. They can make the playoffs simply by calling up Skinner, dumping Smith (IR or minors), calling up Holloway, and getting RNH and JP back.
Braun, and it appears we are scouting him.
I really think Keith makes our defense even a bigger tire fire than it is
Yep, I’d agree with that
McLeod still doesn’t stay in the puck battle long enough, he rushed the net with the speed in the first period, put the puck on net, created a mad scramble.. That he wasn’t part of because he skated on by instead of just simply stopping and participating in the chaos. He missed out on a goal simply by being satisfied to watch from 15ft away.
Drive to the net, stay for the battle young McLeod.
Continuing to play Smith over Skinner is the textbook definition of making decisions based on things other than winning. Like what the actual heck???
Why are they trying to have Smith push through an injury when they are fighting for their playoff lives?
That being said, other than the obvious Skinner over Smith, I don’t agree that goaltending is the easiest to fix because the vast swath of available goalies are not sure upgrades over Skinner/Koskinen. So it would be spending assets to get more of the same.
Koski and Smith are well down the list of play this year for regulars as LT posted. I think any goalie that has a more normal style, more predictable, would help the team play with more structure.
When you never know what the tender will do, soon follows players overcompensating and the system goes to crap. A guy that can make most of the saves he should, even if not robbing a lot of shots, is a step in the right direction. Then the players can focus on limiting chances to protect him.
I don’t agree that the decision is based on things other than winning.
I understand what Holland is doing. He believes the best chance to make a run this season is if Smith finds his form from last season and they run that Smith with recent Mikko.
He’s trying to get that duo that he went in to the season with.
Of course, we are well past the point of any reasonable expectation that Smith can get there and its time to make the change for SKinner.
Your last paragraph is the point. How could a person come to the conclusion based on this season that Smith is a better option than Skinner. And IF Smith is injured than it changes from unreasonable to irrational and is more likely to tank this season than any other roster decision.
The reason why it is making a decision based on things other than winning is because we can almost be sure of why it is being made. Veterans who were once great (or at least really good) have “earned it”. It’s like an extension of “what would I tell Corey?”
With respect, I disagree with your last paragraph and your analysis of why the decision has been as it has. As I said, I think the GM believes that an 2021 level Smith with the current version of Mikko gives the team the best chance for a run. He’s been given that a shot and that’s the reason Smith has been given runway.
The question, for me, is if/when Holland no longer believes that option has a chance (and he’s already waited too long).