The bad news is that the Oilers are playing peak Flames tonight in Calgary and the fans in Alberta’s lovely southern metropolis anticipate a beatdown of epic proportions. The good news? Very little about this Edmonton Oilers season follows the assumed script. This season is kind of like the movie Eraserhead, where you are compelled to look away and find sunshine by your mind, while your ass stays put because your eyes won’t let go.
This is not for the faint of heart. This is not Walton’s mountain, this is not Corner Gas. This is pushing for glory while the engine knocks and the fenders rattle. This is Springsteen’s Atlantic City, except Levon Helm is singing and Atlantic City is Armageddon. This is everything is possible, even your worst nightmare, especially your worst nightmare! This is the scene from “Planes, Trains and Automobiles” going the wrong way on the highway, except you’re Steve Martin and Ken Holland is John Candy in the devil suit! This is read the labels and stay awake. What a season!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen is Oilers’ unlikely overnight sensation
- Lowetide: Oilers sign two Condors as procurement window opens.
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ quiet man, is making loud noises on a new line
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- DNB: Mike Smith keeps showing he’s not the Oilers’ answer in net.
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 1-1-1, 3 points in 3 game
- Oilers in 2021-22: 30-22-4, 64 points in 56 games
The Oilers are teetering a little here, and are 0-1-1 since the Philly game. If they lose tonight, then against Washington and Tampa Bay, they’re going to be 30-25-4, 64 points in 59 games and that projects to less than 90 points. At that point, I’ll be talking draft 2022. Edmonton is four points behind Vegas and five points behind the Los Angeles Kings, and the game in hand is against the Flames. This is serious, and don’t look to the wildcard for help: Edmonton is two points behind Nashville, with the Predators having a game in hand. This feels like another of those damnable losing streaks, and it could carry the Oilers out into the ocean this time.
BENSON’S NHL
Taylor Raddysh scored his fifth goal of the season on Sunday night against the Chicago Blackhawks. Raddysh, along with teammate Boris Katchouk and Edmonton Oilers winger Tyler Benson, were all drafted in the second round in 2016’s selection. Benson was the only one of the three men to play an NHL game before this season, and all three are now waiver eligible. All three could be trade pieces at the deadline, let’s have a look!
- Taylor Raddysh 50 games, 5-6-11 .22 points-per-game
- Boris Katchouk 37 games, 2-4-6 .16 points-per-game
- Tyler Benson 35 games, 1-2-3 .09 points-per-game
Benson is behind the other two men (more in a minute) but the sample sizes are too small to make sweeping statements. I think Raddysh is establishing himself now, in real time, so I wanted to drill down and see what this looked like and how much Benson is trailing by. Here’s five-on-five goals and points-per-60, plus time-on-ice per game in the discipline:
- Taylor Raddysh 9:42 minutes, .49 goals-per-60, 1.11 points-per-60
- Boris Katchouk 9:24 minutes, .34 goals-per-60, 1.03 points-per-60
- Tyler Benson 8:24 minutes, .25 goals-per-60, 0.51 points-per-60
Again Benson trails but let’s keep going, just to make sure we understand the situation completely. We’re looking for the most attractive trade target, and then we’ll ask if Benson should be retained by Edmonton for another season. Here are the possession numbers five-on-five.
- Taylor Raddysh 51 percent shot differential; 53 percent expected goals; 102 PDO
- Boris Katchouk 52 percent shot differential; 55 percent expected goals; 101 PDO
- Tyler Benson 51 percent shot differential; 47 percent expected goals; 96 PDO
These are once again small sample sizes, but the shot differential Benson looks good and he (like many depth forwards on the Oilers) is running low on PDO. Still puts him in third spot. Now, most common linemates:
- Taylor Raddysh: Ross Colton (282 mins), Katchouk (242), P-E Bellemare (103)
- Boris Katchouk: Taylor Raddysh (242), Colton (194)
- Tyler Benson: Colton Sceviour (81), Ryan McLeod (73), Kyle Turris (68)
I think the linemates are about equal, unless you have some hidden insight about Ross Colton. So, I checked Puck IQ, because it offers insight into how much each player faces elites. Benson is at 20 percent of his overall icetime spent against elites, the two Lightning forwards are 23-25 percent. Again, a little edge there. Now the fun stuff.
So, who has more trade value? I think the answer is Raddysh. He has the best boxcars, good underlying numbers and is productive considering where he’s playing in the lineup. The Lightning’s reputation for procuring and developing talent is far greater than Edmonton’s reputation and that has importance in these things.
During their AHL seasons, Raddysh posted NHLE’s of 26, 22 and 43. Katchouk’s three seasons on the same club went 12, 21 and 47. Benson’s NHLE’s were 39, 31 and 40. Benson had greater consistency, and a higher average, but we haven’t yet seen that play out in the NHL.
I think these three players are pretty similar in value, but the Lightning reputation will mean the two Tampa Bay players will win the day in terms of trade value. If TB and EDM are trying to acquire Justin Braun, with Raddysh and Benson being offered, expect the Lightning to complete the deal.
BENSON NEXT YEAR IN EDMONTON?
Zach Hyman would be the obvious choice for No. 1 left-winger next season, with Warren Foegele, Devin Shore, Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway all in the mix. I’m assuming Nuge is No. 3 center and that Evander Kane doesn’t sign, although I do think the Oilers will take a run at him.
So, let’s make the depth chart Hyman, Holloway, Foegele, McLeod, leaving Benson and Shore as extras. Hyman has a five-on-five points-per-60 of 2.10, with Foegele (1.49), McLeod (1.47), Shore (1.31) and Benson (0.51) coming up behind. I expect Benson would be in tough to make it as a top-12 forward next season, meaning a deadline deal would benefit both sides. Maybe Holloway plays No. 3 center, but even then McLeod and Foegele would be 2-3 behind Hyman. There’s no clear path for Benson, and with 25 games left, he’s running out of track this year.
Are there any Oilers forwards over past seasons who posted a 0.51 points-per-60 and then enjoyed a productive career? Chris VandeVelde was 0.74 in 2010-11, Anton Lander was 0.62 in 2011-12, Luke Gazdic was 0.62 in 2013-14, Jujhar Khaira was 0.78 in 2015-16. Benson’s skill set most closely resembles Lander, who would eventually play 215 NHL games.
I watched Benson in the AHL and his NHL games. He has played less than 30 minutes with Leon Draisaitl and less than 25 with Connor McDavid. Nuge? 12 minutes. His most common center? Ryan McLeod, they are 2-2 goals in 73 minutes.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
I’m back, baby! At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. We’ll be joined by Jason Gregor at 11 and Al vs. Sal for Crossfire (pew! pew!) in the first 60. This is going to be heaven or hell week, don’t miss a minute! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
One of the positives for me at this time is the 7D deployment.
Tippett was really reluctant to play young D and I felt it was leaving us a lot of question marks with the position that is arguably the deepest in the pipeline atm.
Might be wishful thinking, but this feels like the GM & HC are more simpatico with roster usage now.
Holland has to know who the contenders and pretenders are in the pipeline particularly on the blueline where those potential Top 4 fits are so crucial.
Broberg, Lagesson and Neimo getting meaningful minutes is a big silver lining imo.
Unlikely to happen before the deadline, but I feel our GM still has to win an actual hockey trade to turn this thing around.
The trade looks obviously worse now because Adam Fox won the Norris but getting Lindholm and Hanifan was a major get for Treliving. Hamilton cashed out in free agency and Ferland is out of the league now, so through the present day lens, Treliving essentially got one of the best two way Cs in the league and a good puck moving Dman for an elite D. Some will argue the team getting the best player wins the trade but then you’re still sitting with a hole at 1C. And let’s not forget the Canes gave away Fox too.
Honestly, it took serious nugs to make that trade. Neither Lindholm or Hanifan were living up to their draft pedigree then and both Hamilton and Ferland were coming off strong seasons. Add in Fox and the Flames assumed a ton of risk the day of that trade. Nothing ventured; nothing gained!
How’s this for a blockbuster at the deadline?
Kane, Puljujarvi and Barrie for Lafreniere, Kakko and Georgiev.
Rangers might demand our 1st rounder as well but you fix the G and swap out two contract question marks for top pedigree top 6 talent ala Lindholm.
The brightest spot in tonight’s game was seeing them return to the five-on-five play that Manwood wants from them.
That’s a big deal. We hadn’t really see anything but stretches of it since the Carolinas. Seeing it again tonight means this team still wants to play their way and that’s a very good thing. Shore talked a lot in his post-game about the fact they weren’t looking at the standings, but were focused on process, and believed the wins will come by getting the process right.
And that’s the right way. Playoffs be damned right now, really. Yes, if we are healthy we might be able get there and do some damage. That’s a big if, from where we sit in the standings today. But more important is this team setting up a style of play that will carry them through the next several years.
They didn’t have it all tonight. Seven regulars out of the line-up and an sea of rookies playing. And still the Manwood-style had them with a good chance at points with ten to play in the final stanza.
They need to keep on keeping on.
Was at the game and this team is a mess. Koski did his job, Broberg impressed but still has much to learn, seemed Keith was talking to him lots. Honestly, I thought McD, Drai and Yams were flat and seemed to have signed out early this year. The powerplay is still soooo bad and Kane seems to care more than most of the team, even though he’s the newest Oiler.
I left the ‘dome’ feeling dispirited… I have no idea how this team makes the playoffs this year.
Me too.
For as much smack as we’ve slung at the Dys, they are now only two points back of us in the standings. Smartly they are gauging the market to see what their players can bring back in return. The teams in front of us have got more separation, than the Oilers do from the teams below them in the standings … I hope our GM is also sending out feelers for what some of the players on the team can fetch in return, as well.
It’s time to shake things up.
If Holland’s plan is to wait till the deadline, unless the team goes something like 5 out of 7, he had better be a seller.
The owner needs to be very attentive right here. This season has been destroyed by injury and goaltending. Last year the Flames had a nearly identical save percentage and missed the playoffs . This year they’re healthy, their keeper has rebounded, the coach has buy-in and now they’re one of the top teams in the League. Patience and prudent pruning is the play and then fill some holes in the off-season. What the team doesn’t need is a desperate GM trying to hit home runs to save his job. Like Chia.
So pay attention Mr. Katz, if you’re intent is to fire Holland and he knows his job is on the line. If you’re keeping him, let him know it so he doesn’t do anything desperate.
If Holland spends anymore draft picks to try to ‘save the season’ the pitchforks will be out hard for him throughout the fanbase, as they were at the end of Chia’s tenure.
Pitchforks didn’t prevent Chia from handing over an even bigger hill for Holland and the roster to climb. That cannot happen again.
Keep in mind too, there are plenty of voices out there clamoring for trades to save this season and the pitchforks will be out just as hard if he doesn’t.
That’s how we end up seeing trades like Athanasiou for 2 second round picks happen.
I’d be open to trading Nurse before that extension kicks in. A cost controlled high-end goalie would need to be coming back our way though. Not sure there’s a workable deal – but this teams needs a shake up badly. So does Philly, so maybe they’d be open to doing Nurse + Skinner for Sanheim and Hart?
Oiler fan since WHA days,glory days are barely in the rear view mirror anymore.I remember listening to a Bob Stauffer interview with Rich Winter ,player agent about a decade ago,he said the Oilers were 7 to 10 years away from being competitive, Bob nearly choked having to hear that.Pre Mcd ,Pre Drai,the Taylor Hall days.My point is at this time this franchise is more a model of the Buffalo one,the Columbus one,the Arizona one.Drafting but not properly building,Just throwing major money at management obviously shows no results also.Where do we go from here?
Likely straight down….. I too became a fan in the WHA days. Until Katz decides to put a capable management team in place it is hard to see any improvement and that is a real shame given we have two of the best players in the game. First it is his blind admiration of the old Oilers and then Tambellini, Chirelli and now Holland. Blunder after blunder.
Drai’s post-game was pretty dead-on tonight.
Refreshingly blunt. When the vid gets posted I’ll link it.
Here it is:
https://youtu.be/s9-t_jnz7A8?t=469
Not sure what’s so refreshing about saying that you can’t win many games when you only score 1 goal … he wasn’t within 5 feet of net all game. Hard to score goals when you’re parked at the half wall all game.
There was another theme in there.
With Marody being scratched three straight, what are the odds he’s being bandied about as trade bait?
Not sure that 4 th round pick will help much….
Guess you haven’t been paying much attention to recent EDM draft arrows.
One bright spot in the organization has been drafting – those guys have earned a few extra bullets in the late rounds.
Very low, I suspect that he was injured at the end of his last game in the waning seconds. Possibly hand-related, but not 100% certain of body part.
I don’t think he’s a healthy scratch…..
If it came down to it, who will ask out first – 97 or 29?
I say 29.
Ah this ole song. Play it again Sam
Hate to be that guy, but that’s not the quote.
source: https://www.businessinsider.com/10-movie-quotes-everyone-gets-wrong-2014-1?op=1
That was a real disappointing game. It also had some really disappointing performances.
Drai was absolutely terrible tonight. how many giveaways? TOO MANY LEON
Nurse TERRIBLE
McD didn’t look like McD.
Send Sceviour to Siberia . Please
Benson STFU .You are not built to chirp, you can’t fight and someone is going to beat the shit out of you.
This team is not going to make the playoffs this year. It is on Holland, and even with injuries hurting us, it Still is. Mikko played fine tonight , but we have lost 10-15 games with absolute Shit goaltending, and just some bad decisions on how to spend all the money he had at his disposal.
The coaching of the special teams has been brutal since the 1st week of Dec. he fired the coaches, and he forgot 1. Gullickson is the PP guy. He should have gone as well. The new coaches haven’t fixed the pk or the pp.
Man you just have to feel for all Oil fans. The way this organization has been run for far too long is horrifying .
I honestly do not see this team being a contender in the near future . No $$$$, or not much to improve it this summer. We don’t have any tough up and coming players for the bottom Six. Holloway is going to be a good big forward, but the other forwards are not toughies.
It is shitty.
Well don’t hold back, Shamus, tell us how you really feel.
I just did . Not sure what lots of you are watching, but that pretty much summed it up.
I thought #5 had a decent game.
Holloway with 5 goals in his last 9 games now. So… that’s something. Right?
And MY GOD!
It is excruciating listening to Kelly Hrudey for 3 periods. I feel like my ears have been raped.
How can he keep a job in broadcasting when he can’t even complete a sentence?
As opposed to Michaels? I avoid all home broadcasts but sneak in some sweet gene.
I don’t mind Michaels. He comes off as a bit of a homer, and sometimes he’s a little over the top, but his delivery is pretty polished.
And he can at least string together a sentence or two.
At least we aren’t talking about being screwed by shitty goaltending. Mikko continues to do his part.
That might be the worst game I’ve ever seen Nurse play.
They actually had a chance to tie the game after the lucky bounce.
Tough to win with 2 lines and 3 rookie dmen, 4 if you count Nurse tonight.
Neimaleinen with a bad neutral zone pinch was the chief culprit on the 2nd goal. Nurse was definitely the goat on the 3rd.
Lagesson struggled to move the puck tonight.
Broberg had some moments, loved his dangle into the slot in the 3rd, but he looks like a rookie. He seems tentative, never really commits to a play. He got pasted by Lucic because he didn’t go back hard for the puck. He could have easily got to the puck with plenty of time to evade Lucic. Same thing happened to him in the first. Far better off taking that hit against the boards than 6 ft from the boards.
Fair about Broberg committing to the play, and I bet he’ll iron that out with time, but Lucic is a weasel for making that hit in the first place. He had 3+ strides before hitting Broberg in the back 4ft from the boards. Textbook charging. No call.
Actually if you watch the replay Broberg seemed to be the one who initiated contact. Looked like he went for kind of a half hearted reverse hit.
He just got run over by a bigger, stronger man.
Scary play though. I hate seeing a guy go headfirst into the boards.
For next year, team has 97, 29 and 93 at center, 13 & 18 as top 6 wingers, and 25 & 5 as top 4 D. No starting goalie. Little cap space to work with. Gotta hope either Holloway or 71 emerge as top 6 F AND 75 & 86 emerge ad top 4 AND KH can find a goalie. Man, KH has really screwed up.
I’ll say it. I think Broberg learned a lesson on how tough a moving Looch is. Broberg actively got in his way then turned and got railroaded. Protect yourself young Bro, we’re going to need you. Still wouldve liked to see a response anyway. Speaking of….
I think Benson chirping from the bench is a pointless move. I’d say it’s a bitch move but I would never try to fight looch either so can’t honestly blame him. Sometimes you need agitator, sometimes you need muscle. Nurse would be the only player that could handle himself and not get crushed. Maybe Nemo, unlikely.
Sutter’s teams play the intimidation game, and while Kane had good pushback and Nemo did well, there wasn’t nearly enough snarl from us. Tired skill too.
Yessas absence was felt, he annoys the flames defenders to no end; one guy they cant move. I miss Nuge.
Protect yourself against a cross-check from behind to the lower back in the middle of the ice when the puck is feet away?
Yes – because the refs don’t call cross checks any more … they haven’t done so since about ten games into the season. He needs to learn to protect himself better or else he’s going to have a really short career.
The refs should be shot and pissed on and not in that order.
Protect yourself by not stopping infront of a full flight forechecker also named Milan Lucic. Not advisable.
Yeah – he did the whole deer in the headlights things there … those moments have substantially lessened though. Next time he’ll keep his feet moving.
You drop your top hand and expose the butt end of your stick, get it up at his face height and let him skate into it.
Preferably with the blade braced against the boards
Not a bad game. Stars were MIA. Nurse very noticeable. Benson as well.
Nurse was terrible lol
97 is a worry. Too many shifts where he isn’t affecting the play.
Give credit where it’s due … the Flames players had good and legal sticks and bodies on him the whole night. They were very disciplined. That line misses Jesse in a big way.
The team is in trouble. Special teams are killing them. Even good goaltending isn’t enough right now.
Agreed. But having these injuries while in the densest part of the schedule has not been helpful. Really aggravates the injury situation more than normal.
You are right though, special teams cost them the game tonight.
We’ve been saying that a lot lately about the special teams.
Yes we have
Holland makes Tambellini look proactive.
Lucic is a scumbag. That was charging all day long.
Good on Benson for speaking his mind.
by like 40 feet
Exactly. Would have been nice to see someone on the ice step up after that though.
Down two with a 1:40 to play? That would be incredibly stupid. Sometimes you have to be patient and let revenge be a meal best served cold.
Really? Down by 2 with 1:40 was the exact right time to do it. The game was over at that point given how little we were creating tonight. Down by one, tied or up by one I agree it would have been stupid.
No coach throws the towel in there on their team, nor do they expect their team to. That’s something fans do. If it had been 4-1, different story.
Standing up for your teammates is an important part of being a team regardless of score. Agree to disagree on whether there is a right or wrong time to do it, but I bet Broberg and others on the team noticed the lack of response.
Kassian.
Doughty.
Manning.
Getzlaf.
Kessler.
Giordano.
And countless others with less severe outcomes against the good guys in recent memory. This team won’t win unless it learns to be a team together and protect one another. We know we can’t count on the refs to call the game straight.
Typically I don’t disagree… but this game was basically done. What I’d like to see from the Oilers is to send a message. When was the last time there was any spunk, any pushback of any kind, from this team? Feels like aeons ago.
Broberg stood his ground and tried to absorb the hit. He was no where near the boards. Cross-checking … yes … but the refs stopped calling those ten games into the season. If he had just kept skating Lucic wouldn’t have been able to touch him, as he’s too damn slow to hit a moving target.
I don’t disagree, Bro needs to better there, but you still can’t take 20 foot runs at player. If that’s in the first two minutes of the game it’s probably called.
There was no crosscherck, he shoved him. So can’t call that. But two for charging would’ve been fine.
Ha.
Yeah, we were so close.
Broberg was scared. He held up to try and make contact before the boards, normal tactic. Broberg initiated contact. Lucic ran him over.
Two minutes for being strong?
This is known. The refs are unforgivable.
Your job is protect the players.
Garbage.
exactly.
No it wasn’t.
Refer to the replay, and then the rule on how many steps a player can take before laying a hit with the intent to disrupt the play… then get back to me.
Charging. All day long.
Yeah, Milan will think twice after that chirp from Tyler Benson
Who else was doing anything?
Someone has to step up to the plate somehow.
This team desperately needs some pushback. And it can’t only come from one player. Or else we’re saddling Kane/Nurse/Keith/Niemo/etc with too much of an expectation. Has to be a group identity thing, where everyone is rowing together or it’s not worth a damn thing. Remember when everyone just watched when Connor got injured in PHI or CGY? Yeah, I’ve had enough of that. They need to stick up for everyone. Because team.
Too many injuries, but the D needs a solid addition. They can’t go into next season with the group they have.
Maybe two solid additions; one LHD and one RHD.
I can’t argue with that.
How in the world is that not a match penalty?
No kidding. Game is basically over and he pulls that crap.
Because the refs are garbage.
Benson making an impact
Broberg still needs to learn to protect himself better.
I’d trade Nurse for an expiring contract at this point.
Wonder how Ales is doing
Hey Nursey-boy! Did you know the best player on your team is a left-handed shot?!
Zero response by the team on that hit says a lot too.
Who’s going to respond? Nurse or Kane and Nurse is exhausted, hurt or both.
Hate the flames. They need to make their run this year. It’ll be a different team next year. TkRoach to the states. Johnny to Pennsylvania.
Oh man Broberg
Koskinen deserved better tonight.
Oh man Nurse.
9 million dollar man with a beauty to seal it.
Burn the tape Darnell. Man our stars have been a non factor today. They’re exhausted.
I like Nurse. He has been poor tonight.
The Oilers should go back to passing school. Brutal pass by Nurse.
Goddamn it. Just an awful play by Nurse at the offensive blue line.
Terrible pass by Nurse.
Yep. Easily Nurse’s worst game
Pain.
Nurse’s idiotic play cost them big in this game as well.
Nurse. Thanks for showing up, buddy…
Well, Nurse the goat tonight. Man.
Ya, not a good game for Darnell Nurse – wow.
Nurse is high event and all over the map. Some good and some bad
almost burnt on another line change but they get the kill
Kosk faces that same shot but better every day. Johnny needs to stop.