Based on last night’s comments, I’m the only person who saw the game and came away impressed with a one-goal loss to the Calgary Flames. This team is dead tired, bone weary, bagged, pooped, dog tired, drained, tuckered out, zonked, out of steam, out of gas, out of energy. Spent.
Six games in 10 days, with stops in Sunrise, Raleigh, Philadephia, Chicago, Edmonton and Calgary. The Oilers outplayed the Flames at five-on-five, but special teams and mistakes by the road team were costly.
ALL of Edmonton’s top players were exhausted and all of them had moments when they did not execute as expected. What I saw was a team that worked balls out against a clearly superior Calgary team. That earns my respect. Now. Making the playoffs? We’ll need to at least contemplate the possibility it doesn’t happen.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
- New DNB: Leon Draisaitl postgame Q&A
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen is Oilers’ unlikely overnight sensation
- Lowetide: Oilers sign two Condors as procurement window opens.
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ quiet man, is making loud noises on a new line
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- DNB: Mike Smith keeps showing he’s not the Oilers’ answer in net.
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 1-2-1, 3 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 30-23-4, 64 points in 57 games
The Oilers are four points behind Vegas and seven below Los Angeles, we’ll revisit the Pacific division should the team get closer to third in the division in the days ahead. The wild card race is slightly more attractive, but if Dallas and Nashville win their games in hand, Edmonton will be on the blue side of lonesome.
GOALTENDER
Mikko Koskinen stopped 26 of 29, .897 and was in no way the problem on the evening. Stuart Skinner’s recall was an emergency item, so he has to go right back to Bakersfield unless the club makes it a normal recall. It’s possible Koskinen starts against Washington, or Skinner, or even Smith. Koskinen has a .904SP for the season.
DEFENSE
Philip Broberg played over 22 minutes, mostly on the RH side. I wrote about his Saturday performance and for me the Calgary game was more of the same. We’re two games in here, let’s not lose our brains, but he has played well.
Darnell Nurse made a stunningly bad pass at the blue line when the score was 2-1 and made several other mistakes in the game. He’s playing too much and that’s an issue, and he’s playing in parts of the game (power play) he can’t impact as well as others. Nurse does everything asked, similar to Shawn Horcoff, and it will cost him with the fan base. Some of the comments on this blog last night were most unkind (don’t go looking they were deleted) and I expect the anger toward this player will increase once the new contract kicks in. A reminder that this blog has zero tolerance for comments outside the line, we are devoted to adult discussion and insist on not making things personal. If that doesn’t fit your mood, I encourage you to start your own blog and bring the nasty there.
FORWARDS
Evander Kane continues to get pucks to the net and looked completed invested to me. Leon Draisaitl didn’t have a mistake like Nurse’s, and as with 25 he was clearly working hard, but LD’s post-game comments betrayed a player who knew he and his teammates were out of sync. I think this is more a matter of working smarter, they’re already working hard. Kailer Yamamoto drew a penalty (as did Kane and Ryan McLeod) and worked hard over 20 minutes.
Connor McDavid looked damned dangerous but wasn’t as sharp as he normally is, I thought the same thing about him Saturday. I do wonder if we’re dealing with a player who has some issues physically we’ll find out about at the end of the year. Zach Hyman was terrific, with a couple of HDSC and his usual determined way. Devin Shore scored the only goal so deserves a mention.
I wanted to pass along a quote from Darryl Sutter that explains last night: “I don’t think their top guys were on their game. It is a hard time now. They had a long road trip, home for one then come here.”
WHAT’S NEXT?
This is a streaky team and a winning run could be just around the corner, but there are realities. The trade deadline is two weeks away and at this point it would be folly for Ken Holland to deal Dmitri Samorukov or the first-round selection for immediate help. What to do?
At this point, Holland his himself in a tough spot. I would suggest running Koskinen-Skinner and making damn sure Mike Smith is 100 percent before giving him a chance to sit on the bench during a game, let alone start a game. I think Philip Broberg might have saved the day, at least a little, and hopefully Evan Bouchard and Tyson Barrie return soon.
For most of this season, I’ve been about getting a goaltender. Now? I’m back to keeping your powder dry, and will go one step further and say it’s possible the wise move will be dealing Evander Kane at the deadline. I’m not saying it will happen, but if Holland is on the outside looking in, and he is at this moment, that might be the play on deadline day.
INTERNATIONAL WOMEN’S DAY
It’s international Women’s Day, an opportunity for us to celebrate women in all areas of life, including sports. My own experience is possibly unique, my Grandma was one of three people who watched hockey with me at a young age, and she was the one who explained the game to me in a way I could understand. She left my with an active rage about goalies leaving their net and a love for the game. That’s a lot.
During the period when I became active online, there were always women who took an active part in the proceedings and brought their wisdom. Kyle’s Mom from the old Senators board at hf, Louise (Ice Dragoon) who I also met there and know personally. Louise is smarter and kinder than all of us, and knows hockey as well as anyone. Loxy from Hot Oil and her group brought a lot to the table, and on it goes. I learn from these women and countless others, and appreciate their viewpoints.
I’m also constantly being educated by people like Lisa Dillman, Alison L, Sarah Civian, Shayna and Hayley Salvian, all of whom write for The Athletic. EE (Theory of Ice) is also a brilliant writer. I’m going to forget a bunch of names, and apologize, but those are the names that came to me this morning. I would encourage you to read these women, to immerse yourself in women’s sports and give it a real chance. Great athletes are always compelling, and the women’s game in all sports is getting better everyday. Shame the opportunity wasn’t made available 100 years ago when the NHL was starting, but that doesn’t mean we should wait a moment longer. Let’s get a league going and start building a new league with new stories and new opportunities!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10, we’ll talk about the Oilers loss last night with Tyler Yaremchuk of Daily Faceoff and Oilers Nation. Ian Herbers will pop in to talk about the Golden Bear incredible season and some tweaks to his coaching staff this season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Who gets the start tonight I wonder?
Smith didn’t practice yesterday so it’s pretty much 100% that Koskinen and Skinner are the goalies who dress.
Does Woodcroft start his boy Skinner? Koskinen obviously also possible, he’s a 3-1-1 .919SV% goalie under Woodcroft.
I’d guess it’ll be Skinner, but if Woodcroft goes with Koskinen again maybe that will inform what they think of Skinner.
https://twitter.com/JamesNicholsNYI/status/1501230432956063744
With Varlamov out, the Oilers a coin flip to make the post season, it doesn’t look like we’ll see a goalie trade. I don’t see a Holtby rental forthcoming.
Good to know, and I agree a goalie trade looks more unlikely now (and definitely not a Holtby type rental).
I’m really not sure there’s anyone reasonably available that’s a clear upgrade on Skinner/Koskinen either.
Maybe Koskinen can keep up his strong play for a while, and/or Skinner can make an impact. Maybe Smith even gets things sorted out, haha.
Capitals lead for the first time with eight minutes to play.
Matthews 41, 42, 43
Only 2 more years in TO. Just in time for Phoenix to turn it around
McDavid will likely be gone by then…probably to Toronto.
I think he goes somewhere warm and not Hockey mad. The kid has been under a microscope for 10 years.
What keeps the fun oncoming is, when this Oilers team is firing on all cylinders it can play with anyone in the NHL.
Like a gorgeous red Fiat convertible it usually sits in the garage lol
I was highly annoyed when Johansen scored to tie the game up with 7 to go (with Dallas). Much less annoyed when Josi scored with 90 seconds left to, hopefully, avoid the 3 point game.
Vegas lost. Not sure if we can catch them
Some good news on the out of town scoreboard.
PHA beats the VGK 2-1
Vegas loses in regulation to Philly
Avs cough up a three goal lead against the Devils
Jack Campbell getting pumped again for another 4 goals against.
Here’s the bet Colorado gets beat in the 1st round along with the Leafs and Vegas straight up misses the playoffs.
So you’re got Dallas beating Colorado in the first round.
Bold!
Colorado scores a lot yes but they don’t actually have a lot of defensemen. They’ve got a few forwards on D masquerading as defense but that won’t work come playoffs. They’ll get leaned on by bigger forwards and the shakey goalering will be pressed to bail them out.
The Leafs went full Leaf and have overplayed Campbell and will continue to overplay him down the stretch. He won’t have the stamina come playoff time and that’ll be bad news bears against TBay or the Panthers.
Calgary is the enigma team. They went on a regular season run like this a few years back and we’re promptly swept in the first round. I expect the same this time around.
Well you’re not seeing reality here.
The Avalanche give up 2.88 GA/GP…the Oilers give up 3.21 GA/GP
The Avalanche score 3.91 GF/GP…the Oilers score 3.19 GF/GP
The Avalanche don’t have “shaky”goaltending at all.
Darcy Kuemper – .917 2.57 GAA
Pavel Francouz – .920 2.46 GAA
Both are top 15 in the league.
Heavily influenced by early year.
In his last six starts Kuemper is rocking a 0.900 and a GAA of around 4.4
Francouze has been better, with a 0.911 and a GAA of 2.70
Toronto its even worse. Since Feb 1, Campbell is rocking a 0.884 (Mike Smith at 0.885 and Koski at 0.915 over the same time), with a 3.75 GAA.
How many folks have pointed out that Campbell has been one of the worst goalies in the league lately? Not many, they fawn over Matthews, who’s a helluva player, but Toronto’s weakness has always been goaltending and defense and welp… guess what’s rearing its head?
And that’s the thing. Both Colorado and Toronto are playing some kind of loose lately. Yes they can outscore their mistakes for now but both have ridden their goalies quite hard (Toronto more so) and both have a history of their goalies wilting come playoff time. History doesn’t always repeat but it does rhyme.
Dallas is 2-1-0 vs Colorado so far this year, with a 7-6 goal advantage. They’ve held Colorado to just 1 goal twice in 3 games.
Not sure that’s a bold prediction, TBH.
With 25 games (50 points) still up for grabs…it’s waaaay too early to pack it in. All this team has done so far is go streaking…and we’re due for a good streak soon. I still have faith in this team making playoffs…I just hope they have faith in themselves and start to show it on the ice.
And when we get into the playoffs…I’m hoping Calgary is up near the top in the West. Out of the top teams in the West, the Lames are the first team I’d pick to play in the playoffs. We’d take them in 6…maybe 5.
Also, If I’m Holland, I’m telling other GM’s that Nurse is in play. I love Doc, but his contract is way too much and he is shy of a true #1 Dman. I’m not saying to get rid of him…but it can’t hurt to hear the offers. Maybe we finally even win a trade for once.
If your name is not McDavid or Draisiatl…you are tradeable. Period.
I’d keep McDavid and Nurse. Trade Draisaitl to fix the tending. Last night was one game. Our defense would be league worst without Nurse
Ya, he had a bad game last night. I’m not saying put him on the trade block because of last night, I’m saying to trade him while he still potentially has other people interested in him. His contract is scary…but so was Lucic’s and we still found a dance partner. I think there would be takers out there…just how much could we get?
And yes, the D looks really bad without Nurse. But freeing up 9mil helps to fix that.
I’m probably the strongest defender of Nurse, but even I will admit that Nurse is basically untradeable at this point. I would NOT trade him, but the contract will keep him here to the end of the decade.
I wish Nurses contract was 1.5 million less
Good player, bad contract. Unfortunate. Kind of reminds me of the Horcoff scenario.
Completely agree – Vancouver is only 2 points back of us and they’ve been gathering intel on all of their players’ trade values.
The core is McDavid-Draisaitl … that’s it. Everyone on else is a supplementary player, whose cap hit needs to match or exceed their contribution.
This is a business … we shouldn’t get too attached to these players, especially when the results they’ve produced has not been all that impressive.
Jonas Siegel
@jonassiegel
Auston Matthews has scored 35 goals in his last 37 games.
NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) Tweeted:
The @ArizonaCoyotes are https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.1.0/svg/1f525.svg
The Coyotes became the first team since the Penguins in 1995-96 to score eight goals in consecutive games (March 24-26, 1996). Yes, you read that right. #NHLStats: https://t.co/sqYC3jgQmR
https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1501388771748679689?s=20&t=NoAd4_zHg7KxY6-4jTU_Jg
I checked out from caring about this team as soon as they sent Skinner back to the AHL. After posting a shutout no less. Way to manage young talent, dudes.
For a washed up injury prone goalie who in any competent organisation would have been flushed years ago…
For a backup goalie who is useless on a back to back because his body is too freaking huge to recover. And who routinely shits the bed in the 1st period.
Verdict: Another season close to being lost. McDraisaitl making their exit plans. The Cleveland Indians of the NHL.
Ouch!
If only you didn’t say stuff like this so often, I just might take you at face value.
Instead, I have a hard time telling just when you’re on the bandwagon or off, often within individual games.
In fairness, that applies to a gigantic portion of the fan base. Might even be the healthiest approach!
I think it’s the fanboys that get me more than the bandwagon jumpers. I’ll never jump off the wagon but man this team can be exhausting.
I posted these in the wrong spot earlier…. duh:
OriginalPouzar
Reply to thelongdark
March 8, 2022 4:05 pm
Jesse “isn’t quite day to day but likely closer than Nuge”.
Smith still stick and not at practice.
0
Reply
OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar
Reply to thelongdark
March 8, 2022 4:07 pm
Barrie is close – he’s listed as day to day but he’s close.
Thanks, L.
That’s very kind of you to say.
I do miss our visits and the rapid fire Q&As that solved all the problems,,, not in our control.
😉
Hope you and yours stay well.
Louise
All the best, Louise.
If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs and win a round or two they will probably hire Mike Babcock.
Framed another way:
If making the playoffs and winning rounds isn’t motivation enough in itself for the players, there is the added motivation that if they don’t, they may get Mike Babcock as their coach.
Framed another way:
After spending a year unsuccessfully trying to convince Mike Babcock to stay in Detroit, Ken Holland may finally get his man next season unless the Oilers go on a deep run this spring.
Hey Ken. 🙂
This trade deadline day, I can envision Holland staying pat or make a small insignificant move and then telling DNB “the prices were very high” given where we are in the standings I did not think trading a 1st rounder made sense. Getting our players back from the sick bay will be like adding deadline assets.
Be prepared to be underwhelmed with the TDL haul.
I’m good with that.
Given the convo below, are Keith and Nurse worth more than 18.5 M in cap space?
Hmmmm. For for me that’s a hard one. The main issue is who could you replace Nurse with? UFAs aren’t usually cap effective especially for our good guys
Hampus Lindholm and /or Jakob Chychrun?
I think you need to strike when other GMs are most vulnerable…the trade deadline.
Is there a team that is so committed to “win now” that they could swallow hard on Nurse’s $9.25 million next year and beyond.
Obviously not a lot of buyers but all you need is one.
Of course that would depend on Holland thinking a few steps ahead and have a plan to replace Nurse.
Remember that Calgary moved on from Dougie Hamilton just as he was about to get uber expensive and replaced him with TWO top pairing D for the same cap hit as Nurse is about to get.
Much the same happened in Colorado where Sakic picked up 2 top 4D in Toews and Girard for peanuts while moving on from some expensive contracts.
I have no idea if Holland has that kind of thinking available to him.
k’andre Miller and Braden Schneider fit that bill.
Would give rangers top pairing of
Nurse fox
Which would be pretty scary.
You could certainly build a trade around that and the Rangers have the cap space to pull it off.
It’s pretty clear that Nurse is a core member of this team and isn’t going anywhere. Connor, Leon, Nuge and Hymen are as well. Guessing everyone else would be on the table depending on the return. I have no faith that Holland could trade us in to a better team.
I agree….
Then what you see is what you get.
Agree with HH here – this core isn’t getting it done. Results over the past few years speak for themselves.
When you have two massive cap hits like McDavid and Draisaitl, you have to be really efficient everywhere else in the line up to ice a team deep enough to be a contender.
Given the disappointing season, now is the time to remove any inefficient contracts, and that starts with Nurse. Good player but he’s not one of the the top 10 d-men in the league, even though he’s going to be paid for it. That contract looks terrible and it hasn’t even started.
But teams love to load up on ‘toughness’, so right now there will probably be some dance partners.
Philly has been souring a bit on Provorov. NYR has the cap space and prospects to make a big splash.
Again, Nurse is a good player but he’s just not worth 9+ million per year.
There should not ever be a case of “isn’t going anywhere”. There is no logic to it. I’m a big fan of Nurse. Nurse is definitely not a primary source of any real problem – even when his contract starts running next year. It bothers me very little that he got that contract. It bothers me a great deal that he got that contract because this place is such a chaotic mess it was easy for mid/long range planning to not factor enough that this kept getting kicked down the road by whomever was flailing around on the hot seat. But i digress…Unless there is an unforseen market correction on future top pairing defensemen’s contracts – I think his contract is more or less fine and one of the least of things of concern for this team going forward, for quite a few years.
I pulled through about a dozen other teams “top” defensemen and ran the side by side comparison in naturalstattrick. I honestly have to say his card holds up pretty well. It would be even better if it weren’t for one thing that I believe deserves an asterix after I caught it.
Low Difficulty goals against.
His numbers are crazily off average right there (5 GF/15 GA….25% LDGF…unreal bad). If that was more in line with what should be expected, given average goaltending, he’d be right up there with just about anyone you could think of -> outside special teams usage and PP driven/ozone cherry usage point totals.
I wouldn’t consider trading him unless it was for a kings ransom. When I looked through the teams that might be serious buyers and willing to push in chips greedily -> NYR are the ones that seem like they have the cap space and also some very intriguing assets that might really be worth at least a consideration.
The few games I’ve caught of NYR K’andre Miller really stood out.
so something like
Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse, Mikko (with cash retained as they likely would need a NHL backup and it’s a good test drive for a guy who will be pretty cheap next year I’d bet)
for
k’andre miller (capable LD, cost controlled and only getting better)
Brendan Schneider (NHL ready RD solid 200 ft player/prospect)
Alexis Lafreniere (not really a need to say much about this)
Georgiev
—-whatever is required to balance it either way within reason but these are the key parts in and out—-
That is a hockey trade and also potentially a longer term move that pays dividends in edmontons potential sustainability to get them to the point where their actual “window” is open -> while still confidently competitive.
*window hint -> it’s after all the buyout and retained money comes off books with hopefully no new buyout money added in interm…barring any further irreconcilable mismangement.*
A deal like this and some contract shedding deals to reset cap space before offseason -> we might be really on our way to a better ending.
Sorry for length LT. I just hate the mentality that there is “no way”. Anyone sane would consider this a way and I honestly think it would at least be worth considering on the NYR end as well.
we simply aren’t going anywhere of much significance without solving “goalie” part of equation. We have very little chance of solving that portion of equation, in a logic timely manner, without trading into a prospective solution.
I can’t stop looking at our cap situation next year and coming up with anything other than their being an urgent need to come up with a decisive series of actions in order to perform a soft reset, right here.
Thanks for pointing this out.
Bad goaltending but also plain bad luck there I think.
Could Katz pay Kane to waive his NMC or would that be cheating.
Cheating.
Thank you, it was a serious question.
Matty pressed Woody hard on if the stars are fatigued, even mentally.
Jay dodged it completely and wouldn’t give it credence. Acknowledged that they are asking certain players to do more with some important guys out but there are ways to “re-fill your energy tank – we do that by not overtaxing them with too many meetings or over-taxing them on practice or off-days to help re-fill energy”.
With due respect to Woody (and without looking at any sort of sport science reports), I’m thinking that’s a drop in the bucket and not nearly enough to off-set the physical (and mental) toll of the game-time minutes.
I agree. Unless the Oilers have Bacta Tanks for Drai, McDavid and Darnell that’s not enough to recover from those levels of intense minutes played.
Cognition is taxing. Attention spans are short with athletes. Anything to not continually drain on the nervous system is a benefit. How big of a drop I’m not sure it is measurable. Not playing them the minutes they do would certainly enhance their physiological recovery.
As well, how they spend the time when they are not in meetings may or may not help rejuvenate them.
Shawinigan remains in a state of Bourg-lessness:
https://twitter.com/Cataractes_Shaw/status/1501331930930814978?cxt=HHwWhICpkfrb5tUpAAAA
Woody when asked about Nuge:
“Progressing on a day by day basis. He’s not listed as day to day, he’s more week to week – he’s healing and progressing.”.
Niemelainen back to the Condors does make sense to me.
He certainly brings an element to the ice with his physicality but he’s starting to make major defensive mistakes with much more regularity and has been directly culpable on goals against for multiple games in a row.
Lagesson, although he struggled yesterday, is clearly ahead of him on merit (and experience) and Broberg has had two VERY strong games and, of course, brings his own element.
I like some of Niemelainen’s game but I wonder about his puck moving ability. Probably best suited to a third pairing role in the future.
I do want to see Samorukov. He should be the 3 LHD of the future.
I think so if he keeps moving forward
He’s also a bit nasty so that element isn’t lost
Stauffer mentioned on ON that Niemelainen’s wife is pregnant in Bako and the Oilers are close to signing him to a 2 year extension. 1st year 2way, 2nd year 1way.
I’m assuming she is due soon, therefore that’s why he was sent down.
As much as Niemelainen has struggled lately, nothing equals the Lagesson vapor lock on the second Calgary goal last night. Surely he’ll play in front of Lagesson, I think both young blue have earned that much.
Lagesson vapor lock?
Looked to me like Neimaleinin got caught pinching in the neutral zone and left Lagesson alone to defend a 2 on 1.
Niemalainen’s pinch did create the 2 on 1, but Lagesson played it very poorly (I think vapor lock is fair).
I’d count Niemalainen chasing to his off-side boards on the 1st goal vs. Montreal as vapor lock as well.
Lagesson had a tough game last night but it was his first tough game in a while – he’s been quite steady for a period now, and with more (and tougher) minutes than Niemelainen.
Niemelainen has leaked scoring chances and goals against for a while now.
Lagesson is clearly ahead of him on the depth chart for this season and its on merit – at least to my eye.
I agree. And the gap in on ice numbers between Lagesson and Niemalainen is even larger than you’d think.
LT, I like Nurse, but I think his poor performance yesterday went beyond the late game turnover (obviously the icing on the cake).
What I didn’t like about Nurse’s game yesterday was that there were a lot of nothing plays with the puck. Bad outlets, dumping it in the corner, flimsy wristers on net. It’s one thing for guys like Lagesson and Niemelainen to play that sort of game, but Nurse ought to be doing more.
I do wish Nurse would exercise some patience and try to set up his teammates a bit more. He has the skating ability and passing ability to do it. Sometimes his game is a lot of frenzy, offensively.
I think about the high-low tic-tac-toe goal that Carolina scored the last time. Do you think Nurse, in that position, makes that high-low pass? Sadly, I’m not so sure.
The team is tired, and injured, not much you can do about that.
Seems to me they are pushing themselves to pass QUICKLY, soon as they get the puck.
Waiting a moment to ensure your target is actually your target and not an enemy player could do wonders…
Except on the power play — not passing quickly enough. Way too slow and too telegraphed.
Drai has to find some new wrinkles
He’s so predictable at the moment it’s obviously getting easy to defend him and take away what he likes to do
If Kane can play RW I’d like to see Benson with them, reason being a playmaker and excellent passer so Drai isn’t always the primary puck handler and can try to slip coverage and use his shot more
Unlikely to happen before the deadline, but I feel our GM still has to win an actual hockey trade to turn this thing around.
The trade looks obviously worse now because Adam Fox won the Norris but getting Lindholm and Hanifan was a major get for Treliving. Hamilton cashed out in free agency and Ferland is out of the league now, so through the present day lens, Treliving essentially got one of the best two way Cs in the league and a good puck moving Dman for an elite D. Some will argue the team getting the best player wins the trade but then you’re still sitting with a hole at 1C. And let’s not forget the Canes gave away Fox too.
Honestly, it took serious nugs to make that trade. Neither Lindholm or Hanifan were living up to their draft pedigree then and both Hamilton and Ferland were coming off strong seasons. Add in Fox and the Flames assumed a ton of risk the day of that trade. Nothing ventured; nothing gained!
How’s this for a blockbuster at the deadline?
Kane, Puljujarvi and Barrie for Lafreniere, Kakko and Georgiev.
Rangers might demand our 1st rounder as well but you fix the G and swap out two contract question marks for top pedigree top 6 talent ala Lindholm.
The Rangers might be interested in Kane because he’s on a cheap expiring contract but can’t see them finding any value in Jesse or Barrie especially with the latters’ contract.
Your basically suggesting they trade 2 1st round picks and a young goaltender for 3 months of Evander Kane, a bad contract and a young player with a lower ceiling than those picks.
No value in Jesse Puljujarvi?
Come on…..
They already have internal solutions. Why trade them for Jesse who needs a new contract.
Makes no sense.
https://bluelinestation.com/2021/12/14/new-york-rangers-alexis-lafreniere-georgiev-treatment/
https://thehockeynews.com/news/the-curious-case-of-kaapo-kakko
I wish people would stop trying to trade Jesse – and yes, HH is not too far off here. Jesse has had parts of two seasons of good play. He hasn’t showed enough this season to warrant an exorbitant extension.
If the play is to improve the depth throughout the team, the only way to do that is by trading one of the big 3 contracts.
I’d move Nurse before moving Jesse … not because Nurse isn’t more important … he is … but he has a much lower chance of living up to his next contract than Jesse does.
Kane + Nurse for Lafreniere or Kakko (we’re not getting both), K’Andre Miller, Georgiev and picks (NYRs first and second). Send Koskinen as well with 59% retained.
Go hunting for more depth on D this off season with the cap savings.
K’andre and Braden Schneider (over any draft type potential part). Get D prospect closer to NHL ready or you are sending boat back a bit too far if you are going to gamble down this river.
No to puj. I keep what legitimately is our best RW option with potentially much higher upside than he’d be with in any deal.
I have no interest in trading Jesse.
I never suggested he get signed to an exorbitant extension.
I only spoke to the suggestion a team wouldn’t assign him any value.
In any specific circumstance, he only has value over and above other options available to the other team.
The key dependencies would be A) Could the Rangers likely resign Kane? As one of the league’s most desirable and diverse cities and being a promising young contender, I suspect they’d have an excellent chance, & B) Do they like their chances of going deep this season? Kane and Barrie are plug and play offensive contributors. JP too albeit to a lesser extent.
Kane and Puljujarvi are both 1st round picks so there’s plenty of blue chips moving in both directions. Georgiev is already in trade talks as he wants to be a starter and is blocked by Shesterkin.
Neither Kakko or Lafreniere have lit it up as very young players so the trade has some similarities to Lindholm/Hanifan trade. Rangers ownership is notoriously impatient. I think they might part with some promising but slow developing youth to push harder this playoff.
Kane might move the needle but Jesse and Barrie certainly wouldn’t.
Jesse is very over rated here and Barrie is nothing more than a PP specialist who would likely see close to zero PP time in NY thanks to Adam Fox.
With Fox, Trouba and a couple of blue chip young RD, he would be nothing more than a depth add and his contract would be a huge minus.
I think with jesse, is we all hope for it to all click, and consistently. But also poeple love him for his smile and energy. Why would you discuss trading a guy that other teams dont value, but that you fan base likes?
I wouldn’t trade him.
There’s no way you would get back the draft pick you invested in him.
But that doesn’t mean he has much value to other teams.
He’s long since been passed by players taken in later drafts.
If they were nuts enough all day long
Woodley likes the Russian, doesn’t think he’s done, just needs some TLC, has a lot of good traits
I keep hearing his performance is mostly related to not playing enough.
I’m honestly surprised neither you nor anyone else took the time to mention Fox just wasn’t going to sign in CGY anymore than Marino was going to sign in EDM.
The relative success of those players has about as much bearing as Dubas not getting a 7th round pick for the extra year to sign+trade Hyman instead of letting him walk for free.
One of the positives for me at this time is the 7D deployment.
Tippett was really reluctant to play young D and I felt it was leaving us a lot of question marks with the position that is arguably the deepest in the pipeline atm.
Might be wishful thinking, but this feels like the GM & HC are more simpatico with roster usage now.
Holland has to know who the contenders and pretenders are in the pipeline particularly on the blueline where those potential Top 4 fits are so crucial.
Broberg, Lagesson and Neimo getting meaningful minutes is a big silver lining imo.
We have been witnessing Broberg get blasted into the boards in previous games, usually right after he moved the puck. It strikes me that someone like Manson has been working with him. You get in fast for puck retrieval and move it fast. If you cannot and a forechecker is bearing down on you, the play is to slow up, make contact so you go into the boards together while stopping. Its more controlled and reduces impact.
I hope I described this properly.
Broberg was successful with this three times yesterday. Not so much on the fourth attempt; butIts not often you’ll get bowled over by the likes of Lucic. Someone is coaching him here and you can see hes coming along.
Manson is also starting to turn him loose. His skating is fantastic getting him all over the ice. Reminds me of early Nurse.
Not that the Oilers were going to score a goal on the PP last night, but did anyone else think that hit by Lucic on Broberg was cross-checking?
I think it was a blatant penalty and worthy of match penalty call.
That’s a very dangerous play by Lucic. Cross check into the numbers with a guy in a pretty vulnerable position. Very fortunate that wasn’t much worse.
Could you imagine if Broberg hadn’t stopped 10 feet from the boards.
Charging, imo.
They were far enough off the boards it wasn’t clear cut, but it was at least interfence, the puck wasn’t there when he blasted him IIRC
Bro has got to keep progressing there, can’t get blown up too often
Drai says we can’t expect Brad Malone to get called up and score a hatty.
What??? Has Drai never heard of former Oiler great Nathan Walker?
Zack Hyman – Connor McDavid – Jessie P
Evander Kane – Leon Daisaitl – Kailer Yamamoto
Warren Foegele – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Derrick Ryan
Dylan Holloway – Ryan McLoud – Zack Kassian
Brad Malone – Devon Shore – Josh Archibald
Darnell Nurse – Tyson Barrie
Duncan Keith – Cody Ceci
William Lageson – Evan Bouchard
Marcus Niemelainen – Philip Broberg
Mikko Koskinen
Stuart Skinner
The roster listed above is a really good roster. Get the intensity back, get the special teams back and this is a team that others will want to avoid in playoffs.
To add?
A goaltender for certain
A heavy d man for the right side. For me, a partner for Darnell Nurse would be perfect addition.
A middle six energy player with size
Who comes out of the line-up for the heavy RD?
Someone to replace Lagesson would be nice too.
Barrie via trade
I agree but there is no chance Holland sits any RD if healthy
A vet LD to babysit either Barrie or Bouch, whomever is there
The rooks have been better than expected, but having an unstable partner which is the case isn’t good
I had read this morning that Bouch wasn’t on the ice for practice again today but, alas, he was – says the Oilers with photo evidence.
“Alas”? It’s a bad thing that Bouchard was on the ice?
Don’t throw in the towel yet.
Calgary is a good team. But I would not trade their roster for ours.
Our roster is only a few players away. Tired, injured and playing depth players, the Oilers have been in almost every game.
Coaching change, system breakdowns, special teams, so much to overcome.
It seems like a mountain of problems but it can turn around quickly. Start with the recovery of the roster, get in some practices, adapt special teams.
Have to be Smith on IR and run Koskinen and Skinner
Holloway must come up
Archibald must draw in
These guys may not be up to NHL quality just yet but they have one ingredient for now and that is energy. That energy might give them a boost until injured players return.
I talk about Oilers being soft and we need them to be hard. To be clear Im not talking about fighting, throwing big hits, intimidating. Im talking about board battles, disruption, taking your man out, no fly-by, challenging for ice, position and on it goes. These are all one on one battles. You win them you win the game.
The intensity comes and goes but the schedule has had a dramatic effect.
But lets not throw in the towel yet. Recovery of the roster, get back to systems and the Oil can surprise in the playoffs.
That they are sick is a big deal.
Tired is a thing as well, but I think solid team play heavily mitigates that
Trying to play NHL hockey with stomach flu would be awful
Colds and maybe flu maybe you can take things and fake it, not so much that. Dehydrated and no energy
Also was at the game last night. Boring affair (the in game experience at the Dome was awful, for all the flak Edmonton gets).
I thought Kane was the best forward on the night. McDavid looked disinterested. Preceding the 2-1 goal, the forward line entered zone briefly before a pass intended for Connor was picked off and went the other way. He literally sulked slowly back to the bench, looking annoyed, and 2 seconds later the puck was in the back of the net. He sulked back several additional times and it was pretty difficult to watch.
The line changes are an ongoing issue. I remember watching a Canes game and it was almost military how they were, on and off so quickly
Anybody see the change in the second period where all three of Ryan, Shore & Foegele went to the (far gate of) the bench at the same time with Calgary D in full possession? There were literally 2 Oilers skaters on the ice, & they did in fact face a 5-on-2 rush.
For those praising the GM in Calgary, keep in mind that he did nothing in the off-season. Coleman didn’t really move the needle.
The 3 reasons Flames are vastly better (prior to Toffoli trade):
-bounce back from Markstrom
-improvement from some developing D, and Mangiapane
-Sutter
No required blowing up of core (as had been suggested by many, including so called expert Flames bloggers/media and fans)
Do the Oilers have any of this recipe for success in them?
They have some developing D (but still have to sort out which ones to play more and less), Jesse took a big step forwards this year before injury, and I don’t know what we have with Woodcroft.
Goaltending remains another big question mark
Lindholm is having a career year.
Gaudreau is having close to his best year.
Mangiapane is having a career year.
Calgary is riding the PDO pony (1.010).
Markstrom is such a difference maker. To me, he allowed the Calgary dmen to take more chances. They even have Guddy and Zadorov on rushes and pinching.
I think if Oilers had the same goaltending it would play to the strengths of our d men. We have had less participation from our d man on rushes and offence. In theory we gathered talented puck movers and offensive D, yet have not been able to maximize their talents.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMi0870WUAsTL6p?format=png&name=small
Coleman moved the needle by providing a defensive conscience on that line.
The Flames have s similar player on every line.
Its why they have one of these GA in the NHL.
Coleman is one of those quiet types that can really drive things the right way, and he’s fiesty
His cap is too high but a great addition, hoped they Oilers could get him somehow, but that contract
Yep…the key is finding the next Coleman.
Took a little Break from the Blog and Team …
Where to Start …. 4 quick points
1 – INT’L WOMENS DAY. Shout out to all the Great Women in our lives. LT your GMA taught you hockey, mine taught me CRIB & SCRABBLE. #Grateful
2 – That pass by Nurse was beyond terrible. @ $9.5 mil x 8 there is really no way he can live up to that contract – and most pointed it out the day it was signed Not Darnell’s fault. Just the facts.
3 – Trade Deadline. Deal Kane is possible Koski if possible. Get picks and then maybe KH can use those picks this summer to get a Goalie
4 – PLAYOFFS. I am depressed 🤓 after the way the team started I was hopeful Playoffs would happen. Oilers fans have had 1 fleeting moment in 2017 ; in the last 15 Years !!!! I am just tired of this team not being a true contender. Literally tired, it is draining.
It is getting depressing.
Time to trade Nurse to The Jets for Hellebucyk.Faire trade…opens up some cap next year…we have youngsters coming up to take his place for much less money.
You think Broberg, Lagesson, Samorukov, or Niemelainen can replace Nurse’s minutes over an 82 game schedule? No way José.
Unfortunately he put up all those points.
I don’t think he can live up either, but the worst thing about it all is Kenny did the deal that enabled the contract that set the market, and overpaid to do it
If you think about it that is really some piss poor strategy given everyone knew what was going down. He should have signed Nurse first and set the bar for Jones.
8 would have been fine, there is no arguing Nurse is Doughty or Karlsson good (when he could play) by the agent. But it wouldn’t have been nice would it.
Nurse for top dollar, and Connor took not top dollar to let the team compete. Drai got paid but was young enough he hadn’t hit his potential. Nurse had. I would have started there.
Connor took a contract that gave him the highest cap hit in the league by over $2MM dollars at the time he signed.
Yes, he could have “demanded” the max 20% but that would have been incredibly egregious and without regard to actual semblance of value.
Connor got paid top dollar and essentially what he’s worth vis-a-vis the rest of the league’s cap hits.
There are several non ELC contracts that have provided more value than Connors’ over the years.
This is, of course, ridiculous.
Not at all – unless you care to provide an argument?
Would a $16MM cap hit have been reasonable? $6MM more than anyone else?
Has Mackinnon, for example, not been more value for cap hit over in certain years (if not all years)?
Your original argument is ridiculous. McDavid stormed through his entry deal, he was a generational talent. He was OFFERED more and tweaked it. MacKinnon scored 52 points in 72 games in the final year of entry, and took a deal that was long term and offered security.
Avs made out like bandits. That’s good.
McDavid scored over 100 points in the final two seasons of entry and won a Hart Trophy before he signed a second deal. To say “yes, he could have “demanded” the max 20% but that would have been incredibly egregious and without regard to actual semblance of value” you ignore the reality of the moment.
Your original post ignored several miles of context, OP. I know McDavid isn’t your cup of tea, and that’s fine. However, someone has to respond when you make these ridiculous comments about him.
Firstly, an opinion that McDavid isn’t my cup of tea is completely false. I adore McDavid and feel blessed to watch his entire career as an adult who can appreciate it (I was too young to appreciate the Glory Days). Just because I will provide criticism of his game at times, doesn’t mean he is not my cup of tea – not at all.
I will gloss over the “your argument is ridiculous”.
Next, I am fully aware of McDavid’s accomplishments and where his career was headed at the time he signed his contract and I fully agree that he deserved to become the highest paid player in the game (and discounting the normal salary structure at the time vis-a-vis 2nd vs. 3rd contracts).
McDavid did in-fact become the highest paid player in the game (by cap hit) and by a sizeable $2MM over the incumbent. He deserved that, and he got that.
My position is that he received reasonable top dollar at the time – becoming the highest paid player by 20% is a big deal in a hard cap world. Yes, he could have “demanded” more, even the max but $14M, $15M, $16M was out of the realm of what was remotely reasonably, given the $10MM (I believe) cap hit of the next highest.
To not think that getting paid $16MM in a hard cap world where the next player was making $10MM wouldn’t have been egregiously unreasonable ignores the reality of the hard cap world, in my opinion.
McDavid got paid top dollar in the realm of reasonableness.
As far as proving value for contract and referencing MacKinnon, I’m not saying that MacKinnon should have received more when he signed (or that his value at signing equals McDavid’s value at the time of his signing) – I’m simply showing an example of one (of at least a handful) of players that provide more value for cap hit dollar than McDavid has (at times).
Well, I won’t belabor it because we’ve had the discussion and moving on in important. I do think that the original offer, that had been agreed to, as a “demand” is a stretch. The player side iirc wanted a shorter deal, Edmonton pushed for the maximum deal and that involved buying more expensive UFA seasons.
It was never a “demand” by McDavid, but rather an “offer” the player ended up revising downward.
Fair enough. I would note that, I never stated that McDavid demanded anything – I stated that, while he could have demanded more, such as the max, he was paid top dollar within the realm of reasonableness – not that he ever demanded, or thought to demand, a higher and unreasonable amount.
Also, I’m not positive I believe the verbal re: the Oilers offering $13.25MM and McDavid saying he’s take less. I’m not so sure that wasn’t simply a narrative that was put out so that the $12.5MM number itself didn’t look too high. I recall all the discussions leading up to the contract being signed, most thought/hoped it would come in below that number.
LT, curious as to what your Grandma thought about Gary Smith? I remember him stickhandling with the puck up to the blue line a couple times. Never seen a goalie do that before or since.
I seem to recall an old HNIC opening montage with Gary Smith stick handling up over centre ice. Maybe not as memorable as the old Wide World of Sports ‘Agony of defeat’ montage, but memorable just the same!
I can never forget the ski jumper….and the music!
She yelled at him! That’s how I remember he played for the Leafs! “GET BACK IN THERE!” is my recall. 🙂
i saw the famous game where Gary Smith was with the Leafs, it was a Wednesday night game vs the Habs as I recall (the 2 almost never played one another on the weekends, they both wanted home dates on Saturday & to be in the USA on Sunday due to archaic laws about Sundays then in effect). Anyway were getting pasted by the Habs with little resistance & very little ability to move the puck out of their own end. So he just said “screw it!” (I’m guessing) & took it himself all the way to the centre red line, tried to pass it off, then had to scramble like hell to get back to his net as LT’s Grandma had instructed.
That was his last game with the Leafs (go figure) & in fact the genesis of the Suitcase legend.
Classic….love this.
So yesterday afternoon I decided to look at last minute resale tickets to take my 8 year old who is as big an oilers fan as I am. Suprised him and he was ecstatic!
There was hardly any energy in the building at all though it was very full (which was so nice to see)
At no point did it seem like the Oilers were a threat to beat the Flames, it was a tight and sloppy game both ways but after about 5 minutes I was sure that lucky goals were all the good guys would score.
I appreciate they are tired but I finally put my finger on what I personally see watching the Oilers for the last few months. Too often there is a disire to win, they are all competitive, but the will to win is not there. Last night there were so few Oilers that actually looked like they had the will to win, would do whatever was needed to try to get it done. McDavid and Leon are brilliant at times but that is different than doing whatever it takes.
Benson was the only forward that actively hit the dmen. Oilers would try to stick check them then maybe lean in, 0 punishment.
McLeod was moving and was good to watch, mikko was battling, Broberg was battling, Ryan caused some grief at times for the Flames, yammo battled.
This is not to say they were the best players, a more skilled guy can get more done even at half effort but last night I finally figured out what’s been bothering me and thats it-the desire to win and the reaction to losing is there but I want to see the will to win, you can show that even when exhausted
The Flames have a way to zap the will to win out of the opposition. I guess we will see how far it takes them .
But there have been lots that have been relying simply on their talent for long stretches now.
Work beats talent when talent doesn’t work
I’m seeing comments that the Flames are a superior team, from LT and others. Pretty sad state for the Oilers.
Where and how are the Flames the superior team? Goaltending and coaching for sure.
Is the Flames’ Dcore superior? If so, how did this happen?
What about the Forwards? How is a forward group with Milan Lucic a better group?
You’ve aced the goaltending and coaches.
The Flames D is superior because it’s deeper, better balanced and more experienced. Their youngest D man is Kylington who will be 25 in a couple of months.
Their forward group is headlined by what many observers are calling the best line in hockey but when you can trot out a 3rd line of Mangiapane-Ruzika/Monohan-Toffoli you’ve got tremendous depth.
Worth noting…Lucic has 9 goals and 18 points which is very close to the goals of Yamamoto and Foegele while surpassing Ryan, Kassian and a host of other forwards…all while playing lower in the lineup.
Balance.
You’re saying we should trade for Lucic? interesting…;-)
Not at all as that train has sailed and he’s too expensive but ignoring that he does bring value in his role.
Started listening to the podcast. If they think a Women’s NHL is a good idea then everyone should be supportive. ESPECIALLY WOMEN. Don’t expect the same fans that watch NHL to to be the market for WNHL.
Patience killed the cat .
I almost always retort when the post is made that Player X can play their off-side, generally based off of history in European leagues or the AHL, in particular with young players (who have not established themselves in the NHL).
We’ve seen countless examples of players doing so with success in these other leagues and simply not being able to do so with success in the NHL. Having the same level of off-side success in the NHL as a d-man seems to be the vast exception.
We know the NHL is the fastest league in the world and with the most skilled and bruising players. That’s a big difference from the AHL and, from European Leagues, many of which still have larger ice, the smaller ice surface is a massive factor. It all leads to d-men having so much less time on puck retrieval to, not only get the puck, but make a play.
The additional split second (or more) required by a player on his off-side is usually a massive factor. I’m not expert but, from what I’ve read/heard is a big factor is the d-man’s skates and how their pointed and angled – that can make a big difference in the time to make plays from the d-man’s off-side.
I have zero idea if Broberg has the “required skate position” or other subtle nuances that help the ability to make the plays quicker from the off-side (or if he and the coach’s are even cognizant of it).
Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t but, in any event, through two games, he has been efficient to my eye from the right side.
That sample is so small at the NHL level (it increases depending on how much stock one puts in to success in this area in the SHL – I put little) but maybe Broberg is one of the exceptions that is just as good, or even better on his off side?
Miles to go to know on that but that would be something.
My first concern though is that, early in his NA career, Broberg has a penchant for getting lit up on the puck retrieval – if he is a split second slower on the offside (if), that would not be good. We haven’t seen that trough the two games.
Sometimes, maybe more often than not, it sucks being such a big fan of this team. That’s sports though. Hard on the heart at times. Today is such a time. I feel for the coaching staff, the players and all the fans.
Love the DS quote, that should be obvious to all of us.
Broberg is playing well and was a ray of sunshine last night.
A huge shout out and much love to all the incredible women in our lives!
.
Thanks for reading!
Its more than just that to me – its the 12th straight game with travel in between – three singles at home in there but they’ve had to travel after every single game for 12 (soon to be 13). That’s CRAZY!
Unfortunately, i can no longer deny that the flames are a “superior team” – we are 2/3 or so in to the season and the standings are what they are. The flames have proven to be better.
The question is, how much better? Last night, for example, sure, the flames won, and deserved to win. The Oilers only got one goal and there was puck luck involved. At the same time, the 5 on 5 play was fairly even, I would even say the Oilers were the better team at 5 on 5 – at least for parts of the game. They lost on special teams.
Also, the flames were completely healthy and the Oilers massively not healthy. Combine that with the Oilers playing 12 straight games with travel, with a depleted lineup creating excess minutes for their top players and them being commutatively fatigued due to that.
Its almost heartening that the Oilers were right with the flames and simply lost because of special teams. Special teams is concerning but the Oilers didn’t play that bad as a group, even if the likes of Nurse and Drai had their worst games of the year.
———-
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not happy, there are no “excuses for losing” and I am agreeing, the flames are a superior team to this point in the season.
At the same time, how superior? How far are the Oilers away if they can get a couple bodies back?
Knowing the team is sick brings things into focus
Terrible timing/ luck, but at least we know why they have been so ‘off’
They still can sort things out with a solid push to a nail biting finish
Healthy and not playing Smith unless something drastically changes with him, a not horrible sched, they can do it.
Health is the key, may not be in the cards this season
The Flames play a smothering style . Then on top of that they have that “Broad Street Bully” thing going on , that dictates the game all over the ice . Even the smallest player on the team plays much bigger because there’s no fear , They are the toughest SOB’s in the league . It’s intimidation . I would suggest that is a major factor in their teams success .
I’d rather be a hammer than a nail . Just ask Philip Broberg .
Broad Street Bullies? NHL teams can be physically intimidated?
Nonsense.
It certainly has an effect whether you want to believe it or not .
if you say so then it must be true.
Which is why Chara would be a beauty add 3 LD
If he would come. A dose of consummate pro and ferocity
Gotta go with Sierra on this one. No team is intimidated by the Lames’ physicality.
Another one of these “chart” that seem to be popping up more and more these days. I never put much stock in these but thought I’d post it anyways. This is Holloway at the AHL level:
https://twitter.com/JLStoller/status/1501249787038818312
What’s the ceiling on a trade return for Evander Kane at the deadline? I was contemplating this last night. Certainly, we don’t have much else of value to sell at the deadline.
Top 6 forward, scoring at a 35 goal, 60 point pace. Very low cap hit, could be basically $1M if the Oilers retained.
You’d have to think that might be worth a 1st.
Though I think trading him (if he’s even willing to waive his NMC) is unlikely, unless the Oilers play really poorly over the next 2 weeks.
Hey Evander, I just got off the phone with Bill Zito, he’s offering us a 1st rounder for you. Would you waive to go play in Sunrise?
Well he did choose the Oilers over the Panthers a month or so ago. From his POV I’d guess family/stability things would be the only potential issue though.
More relevant is probably whether Holland would sell. I think they’d have to be very bad over the next 2 weeks for that to happen. If they’re in a similar spot as they are today I think they won’t be buyers or sellers. And likely still have a decent chance of getting in with the roster they have.
Evander Kane signed with the Oilers on January 27th. While they were 2 points out of a wildcard spot at that time, there was less than half the season played and they looked like a good bet to make the playoffs at that time (especially with the boost of a free Evander Kane).
I had heard in one past interview how excited Evander was to play in the playoffs with the Sharks when he was traded from Buffalo. It would certainly help bolster his value for a contract.
I wasn’t sure how he ended up here. I had thought his preference was a warm destination down south.
Dom has us at a coin flip today for making the playoffs (54%).
It’s certainly a deplorable situation to be in for us to be deadline sellers. Holland went all in on Mike Smith and here were are though.
Even Leadfarmer was screaming from the rooftops to claim Ned on waivers last year.
If we miss the playoffs and walk Evander Kane, that will be a terrible outcome.
I agree that he should be worth a 1st considering his ability and contract.
Yup, the Oilers looked like a better bet for the postseason 5 weeks ago than they do today (now 3 points back of Vegas and with less runway).
No question Kane would like to be in the playoffs, and it would most likely benefit him on his next deal. It’s also still possible that he has personal reasons/preferences for staying with the Oilers (he asked for a NMC, his daughter is in Edmonton, potentially he prefers a quieter city? who knows). I agree he would probably waive to go to a sure playoff team, but it’s not certain.
In terms of his original choice, I’m forgetting all the teams reported to have courted him, but I’m pretty sure all of Washington, TBay and Florida were named. Even at the time all of those teams were more sure playoff teams than the Oilers. And the Oilers didn’t break the bank to get him, so Kane clearly had the Oilers as his preference 5 weeks ago.
Yes, there is a very real chance the team could miss the playoffs at this point. It is deplorable and agree it’s largely due to the bet on Smith and Koskinen.
Even after it’s gone as badly as it could, I still don’t think it was such a bad bet the day it was made. You asked yesterday about available goalies last summer and I posted a bunch of names. I’d still need to look more carefully, but I don’t think there are more than a hand full of names there that a ‘modern GM’ would have bet on and won. And there are definitely some bets that the modern GM would have made and lost. Ned clearly is one of the wins, but I think for any reasonable criticism there should be a number of options that were better bets and that actually paid off.
Anyway, we can agree that missing the playoffs would be a terrible option, and that missing the playoffs and not getting any return for Kane would be worse. I take it you would trade him?
There’s 5 games left until the trade deadline.
We’re 4 points back of Vegas and 2 back of Nashville (who have 2 games in hand).
We’d certainly need 8 points out of the next five games (if not 10) to not be sellers at the deadline, no?
Yes.
No, I think buy, hold and sell are the options.
Hold is the most likely given where we are today. My guess would be:
8 or 10 points in the next 5 and maybe they actually spend a late round pick or two (or maybe not).
5-7 points they do nothing.
Less than 5 points maybe Kane is traded.
Maybe the bar should be lower for selling, though I’m not sure how that goes over with the players.
Florida doesn’t have a 1st round pick. They sent it to Buffalo in the Reinhart trade.
This.
For once, an Oiler GM needs to create value at the deadline.
I just had a great coffee and the darkness is lifting.
I thought they committed to a structured game last night. They showed decent 5 x 5 energy/pursuit but were short too many key bodies and too many playing up the line-up to be effective except as checkers. This combined with obvious fatigue due to shedule, illness, injury recovery (McDavid’s head/face injury to name one) and I saw a few too many near connecting (missed) passes, not quite in position etc. Decent game by Koskinen. Kane is still fresh and his skill and nasty is showing. Loved it.
The PK is missing key elements and the reversion to the T is being exploited. The PP is well scouted and is defensible and is showing the impact of zero practice time. Calgary is good and their hard checking style capitalized on those weaknesses.
IF they can get healthy, rested and able to squeek into the playoffs we may see an interesting round or two.
I posted the other day that Nurse’s hockey IQ is a real weakness and I think people took offence. I’m not sure why it’s ok to suggest that Tyler Benson is in the bottom 5% for “skating” but sacrilege to comment on this very real characteristic of Nurses game.
If you were to put the entire roster on a spectrum I’d suggest Leon and Connor are among the top 2-3% in the NHL. Nuge and Bouchard are in the Top quartile.
I think it’s pretty clear that guys like Nurse and a Foegele are the weakest on the team in this regard and likely both fall in the bottom 5-10% of all full time NHLers.
And thats ok because Nurse is an athletic marvel…possibly among the top 2-5% in the sport. Bouchard is bottom 10% in engine/compete level where is Hyman is undoubtedly in the top 5%.
I am a huge fan and long time defender of Nurse – but this is very accurate.
Nurse at times really displays low hockey IQ.
Living in Winnipeg, I often compare Nurse to Morrisey.
Morrisey was taken 6 picks after Nurse and makes 6.25 million until 2028.
Now as you mention, Nurse is a physical specimen. However, Josh’s IQ is through
the roof and his skating is also elite.
Josh is a small player though.
Nurse makes 9.25 million.
I’m not sure it’s overall hockey IQ that is the issue. I think he thinks the game fine defensively, but he gets into trouble if he overhandles the puck. His hands, and his ability to find teammates with the puck, are just average.
He had a bad game last night, but Nurse remains a quality defenseman. I don’t think he’s playing any worse than last year, but the shots aren’t going in this year.
Plus he’s playing tough minutes with Barrie or Bouchard, 2 guys who struggle to handle top pairing duties. Maybe he misses Ethan Bear a little after all.
Was Nurse mostly paired with Barrie or Bear last season? I thought it was Barrie.
Yes.
Nurse-Barrie 732min 49GF-35GA 58%GF
Nurse-Bear– 258min 14GF-13GA 52%GF
Nurse can’t make simple 10 foot passes. And most of the time his long range passes result in icing. His shot is terrible. I guess he got lucky last year that he scored so many.
I remember in his draft year one scout said he has all the necessary tools to be a true #1 defenceman, but does he have the toolbox?
Trading Kane never even occurred to me. This team is just running out of road. I know the schedule and injuries are a factor, but missing the playoffs is inexcusable. But with each passing day, that vision gets more realistic.
In the words of Yogi Berra, “It gets late early.”
Could a late first rounder be acquired? He’s the most trade-able asset. He’s an ideal player for this organization but please do not re-sign.
Subject to overall cap structuring (i.e. including moving on from Kass and/or Barrie without poison pills, for example), I’d be just fine with a re-sign of Kane for 1 X $5MM or, if needed, 2 X $4MM – give or take.
Longer term is not an option.
Cap structuring as I factor in Jesse at apx $4.25MM and Kailer at apx $2.25MM (and McLeod at apx $1MM as he’ll be ground with no leverage).
One key to cap space is knowing what type of role Skinner can play next season which is related to the cap hit of the 2nd goalie on the roster.
Unfortunately, I don’t think our GM will give Skinner enough runway in order to glean enough info and they’ll need to be somewhat blind on Skinner’s role for 2022/23 which will require a more material 2nd goalie.
Get a 1st round pick from Tampa for Kane. Kane is fully up to speed and playing well. They were interested before. Their forward depth took a beating last summer. They have the centres for him to play with. And they need to bulk up to compete with Florida.
I think Goodrow and Coleman, one or both cost 1sts. Kane is better.
2 firsts! Let’s reverse the trend of getting punked in deals
Like drinking sulfuric acid, but …Calgary is playing good hockey. And hockey that can easily translate into playoff hockey.
Besides the Ruzicka kid – Darryl grounds and pounds 4 lines pretty evenly.
TOI for Flames forwards pretty even.
Still not sold on their ability to score – but I think we can say Toffoli was a good pick up.
Toffoli and Magnapine on the 3rd line.
Lucic and Dube on the 4th line.
In today’s NHL – that is decent depth across the board.
Have to “grudgingly ” admire the job Treliving has done. Excuse me while I go chuk…..
This is their last party though. The pipers have to be paid this summer.
Calgary cap issues in the summer. LA and Vegas will be a year older. Colorado probably loses Kadri. San Jose is in limbo. Dallas, Nashville, and Winnipeg, trying to rebuild on the fly. New GM will renovate Vancouver.
Don’t trade away the prospects at the deadline Ken. Play Skinner and Koskinen.
Colorado will remain scary…there is always someone, but the the conference is slowly coming out way.
One community member likes to cite their $27MM of cap space this off-season but refuses to acknowledge that is committed to 12 current roster players. Part of those that need to be re-signed are:
Gaudreau – apx $10MM
Tkachuk – apx $8.5MM
Mangiapane – apx $4.5MM
Kylington – apx $3MM
Well, that is most of that $27MM right there and that leaves 7 more additions to be made the cap (including signing, or replacing, the likes of Zadarov and Gubrandson).
Sure, cap can be disposed of, as the Oilers will have to do, but that’s not necessarily easy and doesn’t make the team better.
Does Kane have his kids with him in Edmonton? – somehow I doubt he would waive his full NMC at the trade deadline. He’s doing exactly what he came to Edmonton to do … put up numbers and rebuild his value for another long-term contract.
I’d rather move Nurse for Provorov, who’s also had a tough year. Nurse is not going to be worth his next contract
nothing rebuilds value like playoff success.
Pretty sure that was Kane’s daughter exchanging kissy faces with him from behind the glass at Oilers bench during warmup on Saturday.
It was actually kinda sweet.
Woodcroft Era
EDM Goal Diff 13 gp(7-5-1)
EV (3v3,4v4,5v5)
97 w/o 29(9-6) 60%
29 w/o 97(8-1) 89%
97&29 On(4-1) 80%
93 w/o either(5-3) 63%
71(1-4) 20%
10(2-2) 50%
Other(0-3) 0%
Net EV +9
Special Teams 8-15=-7
Empty Net 5-2=+3
SO/PS 0-0
Goal Diff +5
Is Woodcroft going to be like his Sifu McLellan and give us great 5v5 results and poor specials?
Woody’s PK is getting noticed – that is for sure.
Special teams coach hasn’t changed.
Okay. I thought Gully just did PP.
Regardless, Woodcroft may want to address one of the worst PK’s in the league.
Sure, but the head coach is still in charge. The ST coach isn’t doing his own thing regardless of who the head coach is and what he wants.
PK coach has changed – results have not.