2021-22 Game 58: Capitals at Oilers

I wasn’t one of the people clamoring for Dave Tippett’s firing, but was pleased to see Jay Woodcroft get the job. He and Dave Manson took the NHL by storm early, and have fallen back to 7-5-1 in the early weeks of their time with the Oilers.

There has been much good, including a healthy 27-20 goal differential at five-on-five. It’s the biggest part of the game, and essential for post-season success. If the Oilers get to the playoffs, the Woodcroft-Manson even-strength magic could pay real dividends.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New DNB and Lowetide: Who says no? Evaluating 25 Oilers trades
• Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
• DNB: Leon Draisaitl postgame Q&A
• Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen is Oilers’ unlikely overnight sensation
• DNB: How did Brad Malone make his way back to Oilers? 
• Lowetide: Oilers sign two Condors as procurement window opens.
• Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
• DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
• Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
• Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
• Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
• Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
• DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
• Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
• Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
• DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
• Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
• At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
• Actual March results: 1-2-1, 3 points in 4 games
• Oilers in 2021-22: 30-23-4, 64 points in 57 games

There was some good news on the out of town scoreboard last night, the Vegas Golden Knights are sputtering and that is good, if likely short-term, news. The key for Edmonton is to win tonight and then look to Saturday, as this homestand needs to deliver several victories and many points.

IN A BOX

We don’t know about Woodcroft beyond his resume and the players who arrived here from Bakersfield and were plug-and-play successes on arrival. Years ago, I stole an idea from Bill James called “…in a box” where I tried to identify traits specific coaches would bring to the game.

It was a miss overall, but there were some interesting things uncovered. For instance, “Craig MacTavish in a Box” gave a solid assessment of MacT as a coach, and predicted his exit from the organization at the end of the 2008-09 season. Here’s a portion of the article from July 2008:

1. What are his strengths? His teams are prepared. Probably his shining moment as a coach in Edmonton came spring 2006 in the Detroit series. The Red Wings were a better team, but not by as much as the standings implied. MacT used that and some interesting strategy to smother Detroit and get out of the first round for the first time in forever. MacTavish teams have a solid work ethic, and play a high tempo game. His teams are generally strong at penalty killing. MacTavish sometimes seems to put his roster together bass ackwards, getting good role players to score enough to stay in the lineup. I’d say it never works, but Fernando Pisani has been golden and can score goals and there weren’t too many people suggesting Zach Stortini could play a legit role this past season. MacTavish isn’t easily swayed by draft pedigree or prevailing wisdom which is clearly a strength. Under MacT the Oilers have been quite successful with under the radar defensemen, although I’m not certain how much credit should go to the coach.
2. What are his weaknesses? His teams miss the playoffs too much, and his lack of imagination for the PP has been a sore spot forever. Some fans suggest no matter how many skill players this team acquires, MacT cannot manage two successful offensive lines at EVs. He can stay with some players too long, as witnessed the Salo and Oates situation awhile back and possibly Reasoner this past season (although I’d dispute that one).
3. What is his future? I think there’s a chance he might quit if they miss the playoffs again in the spring. Even though Groundhog Day is a fun movie, living it must be hell. He’ll get another coaching job and my bet would be that Craig MacTavish wins a Stanley before the Oilers should they divorce in 2009.

WOODCROFT THE CONDOR

1. Did the kids flourish under him with the Condors? Yes, and it was noticed. Both Woodcroft and Manson were getting mentioned as future NHL coaching talent. Woodcroft got mentioned well over a year ago by Elliotte Friedman and I believe Manson was mentioned in the same space quite recently. The two men are hot commodities.
2. Name the best players who graduated. I think the answer will be either Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg when all is said and done. In the (almost) four seasons of Bakersfield coaching, the coaching duo sent Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner and more recently Broberg, Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov. That’s a lot.
3. How many of these players would have emerged anyway? Hard to say. I’ll suggest Bouchard, McLeod, Yamamoto, Broberg and Samorukov are the most prominent. Bear and Jones were depth picks from a deep draft, so including them seems right. I do think the coaches contributed to how quickly the group became NHL-ready and how much of their skill set also graduated to the NHL. Compared to the previous coaching staffs, this duo delivered much to the NHL team.
4. Is the total (9 players) good for 4 NHL seasons? It’s good, and when you add names like William Lagesson, Patrick Russell, Tyler Benson, Josh Currie and Joe Gambardella the actual total is higher. It was a productive marriage of drafting and development.
5. What kind of prospects flourished under him? Wide variety. The things that are most impressive are getting players to improve areas of weakness. Like Ryan McLeod going into high traffic areas, or Raphael Lavoie moving his feet. The Woodcroft-Manson tandem seems to aggressively address issues instead of slow-playing things. That’s a guess but the Lavoie turnaround was damned quick.
6. Anything else with prospects? I wonder if a player like Brad Malone replaces one of the NHL free agents by the end of the season. He’s more physical and did lots of PK work in Bakersfield.
7. Which players will benefit most from Woodcroft/Manson in the NHL? It looks like Ryan McLeod is going to see more time and possibly on a skill line, at least for a time. Philip Broberg has been given a chance here and looks to be running with it. What do those two have in common? Foot speed.
8. What about physical players? What about physical players?
9. They need some meat. Any enforcers play for him in Bakersfield? Brad Malone was the most physical forward Woodcroft employed in Bakersfield as a regular. He’s physical but not an enforcer. Markus Niemelainen is the most physical defenceman by a mile and Woodcroft-Manson will play him and value that aspect of his game. But he has to make a difference, too.
10. Anything else? He likes aggressive forecheckers, so don’t expect Kailer Yamamoto or Jesse Puljujarvi to lose playing time. He marbled his skill players over three lines in Bakersfield, we saw a little of that before Ryan Nugent-Hopkins got hurt. Perhaps we’ll see it again.
11. Who will be in his top 6F in the fall? Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Jesse Puljujarvi, Dylan Holloway and Kailer Yamamoto. I don’t know, too early.  
12. Who will be in his bottom 6F? Nuge, McLeod, Foegele, Derek Ryan, Zack Kassian and Brad Malone. Again, too soon to know.
13. Will the 4line have an enforcer? Again. No.
14. How will he handle the blue? I don’t know if the 7D will continue and eventually they’ll all be healthy and we’ll see about things. The big recent item is Philip Broberg playing so well on his offside. I wrote about him at The Athletic this week and if he establishes himself as a right-side blue, well that changes summer.
15. Who will be in his top 4D? Ideally Nurse gets a two-way partner, we’ll say Cody Ceci. That could be followed by Duncan Keith-Broberg and then maybe Markus Niemelainen-Evan Bouchard. I’m not sure how this defensive group looks next season to be honest. I do hope Ken Holland stops trading emerging defensemen two at a time ala Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones, though.
16. Which of the young D will benefit from Manson? They should all benefit as a group, I would say Bouchard because the defensive side of his game still needs work and he has the most potential, but it’s a timely moment for Manson to arrive in Edmonton and help him, Broberg, Niemelainen and others.
17. How are his special teams? Ah. Yes. Well, it’s the reason I chose MacT as an introduction to today’s post. You know, the power play is No. 23 overall, with a 6.41 goals-per-60 total. The penalty kill is No. 23 as well, giving up 9.6 goals-per-60. I recall MacT’s penalty killing being good, but he had issues with the power play all down the line. Need someone to fix that, pdq.
18. Anything else? If Woodcroft-Manson are going to get contracts beyond this year, it’s important for the team to make the playoffs. Holland has hired AHL coaches to run his NHL team before, but the pressure on this team is enormous and I expect the GM will hire a more veteran coach if this season fails. Holland is three years into his five-year deal and hasn’t yet won a round. I expect the playoffs is very important for the current coaching staff.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show this morning, TSN 1260 and we begin at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to give his view of the toilet seat season, and we’ll chat about Philip Broberg’s most recent two games. We’ll also have another edition of Crossfire! (pew! pew!) and Joe Osborne from Odds Shark will talk about teams that do well in the clutch and how much you can trust it. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!