2021-22 Game 59: Lightning at Oilers

by Lowetide
Darnell Nurse photo by Rob Ferguson

Darnell Nurse has been playing five-on-five minutes with Cody Ceci more often since the coaching change. In the last 14 games, Nurse-Ceci average 7:08 a night five-on-five, with a 55.6 shot share, 80 percent goal share and 61 percent expected goal share.

Oilers fans who are not Nurse fans might be surprised at the strength of those numbers. Here’s another surprise: Without Ceci, Nurse is hammering at a nice clip during the Woodcroft era. Averaging 10:25 a night away from Ceci, Nurse is 52.6 shot share, 62.5 goal share and 48.8 expected goals.

Nurse is having a helluva season. Those numbers are Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ tells you much the same. Puck IQ also tells us 40 percent of his five-on-five time is versus elites, he’s at 53 percent Dangerous Fenwick (Smart Corsi). Nurse’s contract will get him plenty of rage online (even though it hasn’t kicked in), but if you look deeper, he’s delivering rock solid results. I figure someone should say it every little while. So I did.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
  • Actual March results: 2-2-1, 5 points in 5 games
  • Oilers in 2021-22: 31-23-4, 66 points in 58 games

The Oilers have been getting steady good news on the out of town scoreboard, with Vegas losing twice late in the week and others around them faltering at least a little. Edmonton is in third place in the Pacific Division today, it’s by the thinnest of margins and a loss tonight to the Lightning would send them back outside the playoffs. Don’t count on it lasting, but it’s nice to spend Saturday in the playoffs.

WOODCROFT-MANSON BLUE (five-on-five)

  • Nurse-Ceci: 100 minutes, 4-1 goals, 61% Expected goals
  • Nurse-Barrie: 99 minutes, 8-3 goals, 50% Expected goals
  • Nurse-Bouchard: 20 minutes, 0-2 goals, 62% Expected goals
  • Nurse-Lagesson: 10 minutes, 2-1 goals, 30% Expected goals

Nurse at five-on-five during the Woodcroft-Manson games has been on the ice with Ceci or Barrie most of the time. One pairing is better in suppression (one goal against in 100 minutes is splendid), the other one is running some heavy offensive numbers. Nurse in the Woodcroft era is 14-7, that’s a fine result over 14 games. The top pair tonight (Nurse-Ceci by reports) will be challenged by a strong Lightning team.

  • Lagesson-Ceci: 54 minutes, 1-1 goals, 60% Expected goals
  • Niemelainen-Ceci: 33 minutes, 2-0 goals, 62% Expected goals
  • Keith-Broberg: 31 minutes, 0-0 goals, 67% Expected goals
  • Keith-Bouchard: 29 minutes, 3-0 goals, 67% Expected goals
  • Broberg-Ceci: 19 minutes, 1-0 goals, 29% Expected goals

Keith and Ceci were the second pair right before injury and coaching changes, so this is the second pair over the Woodcroft games but I’ve used only Ceci and Keith partners. The results are top drawer, the youngsters who stepped in have done well. Tonight is Keith-Bouchard, with not much track under Woodcroft but a 3-0 result. The second pairing needs to be “on” tonight.

  • Niemelainen-Bouchard: 42 minutes, 1-3 goals, 50% Expected goals
  • Niemelainen-Lagesson: 36 minutes, 2-3 goals, 38% Expected goals
  • Broberg-Bouchard: 30 minutes, 2-1 goals, 63% Expected goals
  • Lagesson-Bouchard: 25 minutes, 0-1 goals, 73% Expected goals
  • Broberg-Barrie: 18 minutes, 1-2 goals, 58% Expected goals
  • Niemelainen-Barrie: 16 minutes, 0-2 goals, 30% Expected goals
  • Lagesson-Broberg: 13 minutes, 1-1 goals, 41% Expected goals
  • Lagesson-Barrie: 11 minutes, 1-0 goals, 74% Expected goals

These are some second and the third pairings through the Woodcoft era, tonight’s tandem in yellow italics. Broberg passing Lagesson and Niemelainen was going to happen eventually, and we don’t know if it will stick, but the revelation of Broberg on RH side is something to keep in mind tonight. I wonder if Lagesson draws in, although Woodcroft will want to see if Josh Archibald and Zack Kassian can impact the No. 4 line in a positive way. I thought Kassian played well on Wednesday.

TONIGHT

The Lightning are a brilliant team looking for a third Stanley in a row and have lost two straight games. They’re going to arrive with a burr under their saddles and it could get ugly. On the other hand, the Oilers are a stronger five-on-five team under Woodcroft (29-21 goals) and that run includes a .931 save percentage. This is a difficult game for Edmonton, it’s the one game in this home stand I have as a regulation loss. If the Oilers win it, fans can start to believe in this team despite the flaws.

CONDORS

Bakersfield Condors played one of its worst games in memory last night, the offense couldn’t do a thing and the the coverage was off. The team didn’t win many battles and couldn’t string together three passes in a row. The cause could be myriad, including a new coaching staff, the loss of Malone, Broberg and others, and the fact Stuart Skinner is in transit. Part of a successful farm team is playing games at a high level and being pushed by teammates to reach new levels. Last night was the first sign of a crack in the wall of development Woodcroft and Fleming built in California. It’s a concern, but only if it continues. The Oilers will be sending help before and at the deadline, Condors need it.

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Munny 2.0

LAK on a B2B have FLA late tonight and then COL on Tuesday for their 3rd in 4 nights.

And apparently will be missing a couple of regulars.

#strengthofschedule #injuryluck

Munny 2.0

Think about this team with Nuge and Pujo on the 3rd line. In addition to what we have now.

There is so much competition at forward, and they all know how the coach wants them to play. I’ve even liked Shore’s game for a stretch now. The guy is playing 3rd line center and not drowning. Who would’ve guessed?

Defense is the question, but is depth really the issue? From Lagesson to Broberg to Nemo, they have a lot of actual depth. And Kowboy skated with the team today, will be back soon.

Do the Oilers even make a deal at the deadline? Or do they just get healthy?

Scungilli Slushy

If they are healthy and everyone plays decently, no. The young D though in a playoff series might get exposed. And a rookie goalie they haven’t played enough to know if the yips are completely settled.

hunter1909

Yamamoto played his best game tonight.

Munny 2.0

Oilers are 9-5-1 with Manwood.

Yes, those are dimensions…

hunter1909

Attention Harpers Hair!

Wtf happened tonight!?

HH is obviously out enjoying the San Tropez weather he speaks of.

Diablo

Everyone pulled on the rope together tonight. I don’t think there’s much to critique with regards to anyone’s performance. The PP didn’t make enough hay, but they had tons of chances and were getting pucks through.

Just an enjoyable win from start to finish – I only wish they played like this every night. Hopefully this this just the start of more consistent play throughout the lineup, with Nuge and Jesse back after the deadline to give this team a boost.

I’d like to see a lateral move of Barrie for a more defensively sound D-man at the deadline … not sure there is a dance partner for that kind of deal.

Along with a trade of Smith for Skinner at backup G.

JimmyV1965

McLeod looked terrific tonight.

Munny 2.0

When he returns, Pujo will be starting on the 3rd line, guaranteed.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Munny 2.0

We play LA twice more. Them gonna be huge battles.

Neumann

It seems Woodcroft manages game scenarios with personnel adjustments better than Tippett. He uses players in specific roles at specific times. Saw two Dmen on the PP near the end of the game. He started the second PP unit once to give the first unit a rest. He took a timeout during a 5 on 3 in the first period. I don’t think Tippett took a timeout before the final 3mins in his tenure as Oilers coach

meanashell11

Adjustment, in-game coaching, who would have thought a coach could perform such black magic!

Munny 2.0

Back to LT’s article…

When you’re criticizing Nurse, please recall it was Hedman that McDavid walked on the first goal, and Hedman that didn’t get the clear before Connor scored on the PP.

And he’s probably the best defenceman in the League.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Material Elvis

Time to trade Hedman for Hellebuyck and a 3rd.

OriginalPouzar

It was also Hedman chasing Leon on his goal – and he actually got there with a good angle but wasn’t able to make a strong enough play.

JimmyV1965

Excellent post.

Boil-in-the-Oil

Even the very best d-men are but mere mortals (aka human) as Connor blows past them. So, agree with your point…even the best occasionally get beat.

Munny 2.0

That’s why the failed clear, and the weak play on Drai submitted by OP were included.

There are a lot of guys out there who can walk defenceman if you’re caught on your heels, leaning the wrong way, or skate blades slightly aimed wrong. That’s how much speed there is in this league.

(i.e. it’s not just a McDavid thing)

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Jethro Tull

Please remember that Hedman has a Norris, a Conn Smythe and two Stanley Cup rings all for an $8M cap hit that runs out in 2025.

I think Connor and Drai burning off Hedman last night are more a testament to their skill rather than Herman’s lack of it.

I’m confused by the logic of “you can’t criticise player X because player Y (who’s better) got beat by the world’s two best attacking players.”

Munny 2.0

Well, you’re the only one presenting that logic, so I don’t understand your confusion.

Please read my post again.

Munny 2.0

Koski 9-1-2 in his last twelve starts.

Admiral Ackbar

What. A. Turnaround.

Reja

That’s the key for a lot of kids get off social media. Louie the kids don’t have blowout parties like in your day.

Munny 2.0

Your Molson Three Stars

  1. McDavid (was there any doubt)
  2. Koskinen
  3. Draisaitl
Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Material Elvis

Ceci seems like a nice guy. His play has been outstanding lately. One of the best free agent signings by the Oilers in the past few seasons.

DevilsLettuce

It’s been a rough ride but I’m finally at a place where I’m comfortable with Mikko as the mostly goalie.

Liked all the forwards tonight, they did all this without Nuge and JP.

Move Barrie and get Broberg on the right side, and they also need to give us all more Broberg.

Really like how Woodcroft and company manages every second they can of the game. It’s refreshing, as a viewer I hope this sticks around.

Attack all these low end teams coming in like they’re all Tampa Bay. Kane’s on ice POS attitude seems to be rubbing off on the fellas in a good way, he’s been a perfect fit.

While I’d like to see McLeod at center, he’s been first round talent on the wing recently.

I didn’t think it made sense for Archi to be seriously considered, yet if he can bring what he does for home games.. That could be less then ideal but ok.

I’m not sure we see Benson again, if only he was alil faster.

Admiral Ackbar

Woody is my Ted Lasso.

Believe!

Crazy Pedestrian

Oilers still undefeated when scoring first this late in the season!? 18-0 when scoring first! Seems like an unreal statsline! Unfortunately that also means that they’ve only scored first 18 times in 59 games. Which also seems like an unreal stat…

Back in 3rd place baby!!! Hopefully the Oilers winning continues! (Preferably Along with Vegas losing)

Last edited 2 years ago by Crazy Pedestrian
Munny 2.0

Is that the Oil’s best two games in a row this season? Considering the competition…

Crazy Pedestrian

With Nuge and JP also on the shelf to boot.
Good team wins!

GarbanzoHumanBean

COH will have the confirmed numbers but I believe the Oilers are now 22-1-1 when leading after 2 periods. I’ll remind myself next time I start clenching in the 3rd.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

18-0 when they score first

who

They deserved the win tonight, no question.
But they did their darndest to give it away in the last 10 minutes.
Not a good penalty by Malone.
And I’m not sure Archies big hit was worth the goal against. I’d have to watch the replay, but did he leave his defensive assignment to make that hit?

Jethro Tull

Have to give a bit of credit to the two-time reigning champions with a mostly healthy squad.

I don’t mind the push back.

Admiral Ackbar

Maroon did exactly what Malone did. It just didn’t incite a brawl. I’m fine with the play. I think the extra 2 was a bit much but that’s game management for u…

Munny 2.0

Elliott with a Vezina performance tonight.

Manwood says hold my beer.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan McLeod – my goodness!

MattyLeBlanc

It really has been wild watching him take leaps as his confidence grows. It’s almost like you can see it in real time. Some serious Chem with Leon too. Ya love to see it.

Funnybird

Skill, speed, and quickness. Should be a solid player for a long time.

Jethro Tull

It’s called “The Quickening”.

WINWELL

Yes Sir. He was impressive😊

hunter1909

Draisaitl also gave Bolts a lesson in fantastic clutch goal scoring…powering down the ice like a tank until the last yard; then all of a sudden he becomes as sensitive as a concert pianist.

Funnybird

Channelling his inner Moose

Funnybird

Koski was great, hopefully he keeps rolling with that

Sierra

Koski was great again, and has been playing well for along stretch now.

Gerta Rauss

Very strong win…thorough

2 days off, then 3 winnable games against DET/BUF and Jersey…god speed boys

Munny 2.0

The old Oil would take their foot off the gas for those games. What will Manwood do?

jp

thorough

QFT

hunter1909

Best game since Game 6 of the finals in 2006.

Tampa looked like they wanted to be anywhere else.

norm2015

Never doubted it for a second. Play offss

GarbanzoHumanBean

Uh that’s the result when you have a SHOOTERS MENTALITY.

childishzamboni

Please keep Jay Woodcroft.

Admiral Ackbar

I believe it’s #extendthewood!

childishzamboni

OMG you guys with this wood thing. I think there is a guy for the Devils called Miles Wood if you want to get carried away. LOL

Mulroneys Mandible

yeah, quit being so childish everybody…:)

hunter1909

Imagine the ineptitude of anything else.

Sierra

Great team win.

Mikko with another win, another solid win.

Material Elvis

You see? He was the only Finnish that they needed tonight.

Reja

If that crowd doesn’t pump up the boys moving forward nothing will.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

It seemed like Rogers Place was largely a library or mausoleum tonight. No killer instinct on the crowd’s part, like in, say, Nashville.

jp

Well, I was not expecting a W tonight.

What a great effort pretty much (completely?) from top to bottom.

McDavid and Draisaitl delivered.

Broberg carried Barrie.

And Koskinen had an impressively quiet 30 saves game against the cup champs.

I’ve already had a beer, and another. Time for one more!

Munny 2.0

I’m right on the same pace. Good thing its Saturday coz we’re losing an hour tonight.

Munny 2.0

This win moves Koski ahead of Cujo for 7th all-time in wins by a goalie. One behind Roli in 6th.

Smith won’t play till Koski loses one or B2B.

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Munny 2.0

Fuck Harry, stop reading my comments lol

Sierra

Part of me wishes Smith was playing so we could have watched him bail out Archie and take on Sergachev. Would have been a fairer fight.

Last edited 2 years ago by Sierra
Munny 2.0

lol

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Should we rebrand Mikko as Kojo (or some such variant)?

Amazing the difference in style, as Joseph was such a clutch goalie and Mikko seems so hot:cold in comparison.

LMHF#1

Barrie is making bad pass/clear attempts off his back foot in the defensive zone.

That needs to be eliminated.

OriginalPouzar

A near perfect night on the out of town scoreboard (Ducks got a point and, well, flames) and the Oilers with a hell of an effort and FULL VALUE for two points in regulation against Lightning.

WHAT. A. GAME!

Oilers putting some points % distance between them and Vegas and closing the gap on the Kings (and wild card teams).

What a game for McLeod despite no points.

McDavid near supernova

Leon a great game and a MASSIVE last 10 minutes.

Mikko the unsung hero but very good.

PK HUGE!

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Kings had a rough night personnel wise

Gerta Rauss

That’s a shame

-Jerry Seinfeld

Last edited 2 years ago by Gerta Rauss
Admiral Ackbar

Solid win against a good team with all their big boys playing. Full credit. And they deserved it too. How many posts was that??

Crazy Pedestrian

So apparently Against Tampa, what the fLames can do, the Oilers can do better?

good job oilers!

Last edited 2 years ago by Crazy Pedestrian
Tarkus

How was that not icing on the Kane EN attempt?

Material Elvis

Yamamoto beat the defenseman to the puck by a large margin.

Genjutsu

Yama got there first?

oilinthepeg

Heck of a team effort! Wooooooot!

fishman

This team looks pretty good with a couple of days off…..

Diablo

Great team win!

Sierra

I like the play by Kane to try to score.

Reja

He’s a goal scorer.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Onto the next one

Material Elvis

Yamamoto seals the deal. A well-deserved win. We’re coming for you Calgary!!

Chief Inspector

Super Performance. What does Hyman have to do to get an empty net penalty call?

OmJo

YAMAMOTO!!! Empty net, but still.

Gerta Rauss

YAMMMMMM…fry…

suck it TB!!!

Munny 2.0

Yams!!!!!!

jp

Hahaha

Fitting end to the game!!

Kane to Yamamoto 🙂

fishman

Yea Yamo!!!!!

flyfish1168

2 games in a row Zack gets hooked with an open net

Gerta Rauss

yes, yes…but neither were penalties

/wink