There’s a draft post coming soon, I promise. However, for today, I’d like to try a little experiment. We know the Oilers three centers next season (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) and we know the well paid wingers under contract (Zach Hyman, Zack Kassian and Warren Foegele).
Add to that group the RFA’s who should be back (Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod) and may be back (Tyler Benson, Brendan Perlini). Signed prospects who should be considered include Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Matvei Petrov and Tyler Tullio. UFA? Evander Kane.
Here’s the assignment: Pick six wingers for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers and place them in your preferred order beside 97, 29 and 93.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s case for a spot on Oilers’ skill lines
- New DNB: Oilers’ recent play only underscores that upcoming trade deadline must be a time to act
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- DNB: Markus Niemelainen collecting catchy nicknames as his surprise breakout accelerates
- Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be starting games for the Oilers right now
- Lowetide: How much do the Oilers miss Jesse Puljujarvi?
- DNB and Lowetide: Who says no? Evaluating 25 Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl postgame Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
You make the call
There’s a wide variety of opinions that pass through this blog everyday. Some prefer veterans who hit like trucks, others want all skill. Some like inexpensive players with high ceilings. Some would like Connor McDavid to play with the best available talent every night (meaning Draisaitl and someone else). Others would like McDavid to play with value contracts who are not close to signing their next deals.
Of course, the largest group (or at least it feels like it most days) is convinced their prospect would thrive if the current placeholder player would get the hell out of the road. Here’s your chance to pick your top nine forwards. Care to list your top nine for 2022-23?
- Zach Hyman: He’s pretty close to my ideal winger. Hyman can shoot and pass well, is absolutely determined to retrieve every puck, is physical and can plug-and-play on any line. I doubt anyone’s list will exclude Hyman, who will soon be the first pure winger on the club to reach 20 goals this season.
- Evander Kane: I think there may be a few who pass on bringing Kane back, for cap purposes or otherwise. I said before he was signed, and will reiterate: It is already impossible for GM Ken Holland to pass on making Kane an offer before he reaches free agency. Kane is likely to go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Oilers. That doesn’t have to guide your decision but it is part of the reality of the future.
- Zack Kassian: I’ve asked you for three sets of wingers, one for each line. I expect to see Kassian on many lists, as several posters believe the Oilers need to draw blood during the anthem. This blog remains math based and devoted to things that help you win, but over the years posters have pushed back with the idea that physicality>talent. I am a big fan of physical players who can also help you win games, does Evander Kane make Kassian moot?
- Warren Foegele: Seven goals this year and his cap is $2.75 million? Plus there are many left-wingers on the roster. I think Foegele is a good candidate for the ‘veteran who makes the fewest rosters’ on the lists posted today. He would be on my Nuge line.
- Josh Archibald: He has played just one game this season and is a UFA over the summer, but he certainly had a lot of fans last season and plays a rugged game despite being undersized. Any takers?
- Derek Ryan: He has been gold for several weeks now, after having a very difficult time at the beginning of the year. He’s inexpensive ($1.25 million) and has another year on his deal, could be the sixth Edmonton forward to hit 10 goals this season.
- Jesse Puljujarvi: He is the first forward I’d sign from the RFA and UFA forwards this summer. I’d go as long as possible understanding the limits of the salary cap. I would place him alongside McDavid. I’ll be fascinated to see how many agree.
- Kailer Yamamoto: Possibly the bravest draft pick in team history, Yamamoto is 13-10-23 in 58 games. However, he isn’t a big man, requires several chances to score before cashing, and will be seeing pressure bubbling up from the farm as soon as right now (as per my article today for The Athletic). Is he on your list?
- Ryan McLeod: As each game passes, McLeod shows more range and secures more playing time. We don’t really know his outer marker, and his junior scoring numbers were good not great, but for a second-round pick he sure seems capable with the puck on his stick. McLeod is doing well now, is he doing enough to make your list?
- Tyler Benson: Benson may not make a list (LW is loaded) but I’ll include him because he does have skill and is inexpensive. Edmonton’s three skill lines arriving now should represent perfect timing for Benson, do you agree?
- Brendan Perlini: He has a dynamic skill set (great shot, good size) but hasn’t been able to put it all together. He is as inexpensive as Benson, but has a big shot and good release. Worth placing on the top three lines?
- Dylan Holloway: I’ll be watching closely to see how many lists Holloway makes, and what line he appears on. I’ve been watching his AHL games and he is NHL-ready. Keeping him down on the farm isn’t a terrible idea, he’ll fill the net soon and that’s a good way to graduate. In the fall, where will you have him?
- Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Tullio, Matvei Petrov: I don’t think anyone will choose these names, but wanted to mention them. I don’t know when they’ll arrive in the NHL, but they’re all on track for at least some time in the NHL and talented offensive players don’t stay long in the minors.
I’m looking forward to seeing your lists in the comments section and I do hope you’ll take part. I’m asking for three lines, for opening night next season, using the names available including all RFA and UFA. Thanks!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It was a busy weekend, the Oilers receiving great news from every corner and now alone in third place in the Pacific. We’ll talk to Jason Gregor about the resurgence and what Edmonton should do at the deadline, and we’ll have a guest on to talk about Tom Brady’s announcement. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
If Pujo is back on Thursday, I expect to see the Highlander return to center:
Kane Connor Yams
Hyman Drai Pujo
Foggy McLeod Ryan
Archie Shore Kass
Depending how McLeod-Draisaitl look tonight I’d consider keeping them together and moving Ryan back to C with Foegele-Puljujarvi.
Your lines look good if not (I’ve liked Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto).
We beat Tampa with 2 good lines, imagine what this team will be like with 3. Fun times!
Watched the 1st two periods of the Condors vs Stockton. The Heat are a solid team, Wolf is going to have an NHL career.
Condors are not clicking, something is off, is it the absence of Woody, Manson + Malone having a negative impact? The D really struggle to move the puck and sure & steady Desharnais likely had his worst game of the season.
Inexplicably the most skilled offensive player, Marody, did not get PP reps, but did play on the PK. Holloway took 1 face off and won it handily and got off 2 excellent shots (1 a goal). The line I wanted to see (Holloway, Hamblin& Lavoie) were on the ice for the second goal, but that was totally on Desharnais. They were a bit disjointed, but need more reps together. After the goal I gave up at that point, so I don’t know if they were kept together.
Skinner was solid for the most part, however he let out a rebound on the first goal and was out of position a couple of times, but was lucky nothing happened and he really, really needs to get better with his puck moving, he had a couple of fumbles that could have been disastrous.
Sammy and Nemo struggled to move the puck quite a bit, Kemp and Berglund were steady. Kesselring was PB’d.
Holloway was the standout, but didn’t get much help.
Is this week the last test for the Oil? Beating The Sisters of the Poor? The one hurdle they’ve never seemed to be able to get over… Three games. That last one with Colorado looming large directly ahead might be the tough one. You know they will show up for the Avs, it’s these three lightweights in the middle that I worry about. Will they take a night off, or take care of business?
Because if Manwood gets the second outcome out of the team, then they will have done what no other coach has ever seemed to. Not consistently. Jay’s been adamant about focusing on the day’s business. It’s one of his mantras. I’m hoping we see the team sing it in unison in all three performances. At last.
Kane McDavid Yamamoto
McLeod Draisatl Pujuljarvi
Foegele Nuge Hyman
“I think that’s something what you guys.. pretty much made up.. in your heads”.
– Mikko Koskinen – on his (in)ability to handle a starters workload.
A someone broken play at the offensive blue and the puck sneaks out to Holloway in the very high slot, he moves in to the mid-slot and snaps one home blocker side.
Condors down 2-1 with 1:56 to go.
Can’t tie it up though – Soon to be Hab, Pelletier nets the empty netter from deep in his own zone.
Holloway breaks the scoring drought, nice goal. I don’t think they’ll have time to tie, but it has been a week (says Ryan Holt) since the last goal.
Just finished watching the Jay Woodcroft presser after practice today. What a breath of fresh air it is listening to Jay! He’s so positive and upbeat.The total opposite of Tippett’s pressers. Jay’s responses to questions about Mikko, McLeod, Bouchard, and analytics were in depth and well thought out. All of his pressers have been excellent.
If Holland doesn’t re-sign Jay & Dave Manson to long-term deals after the season, he’s missing the boat and Katz should fire Holland & Nicholson to the sun!
Here’s the link to the presser:
https://www.nhl.com/video/c-10934718
If the link doesn’t work, just go to http://www.edmontonoilers.com and find the video from today.
I want to hire Woodcroft as my life coach.
I was very skeptical of Woody (was not a TMac fan) and he has really proven me wrong. He is a beauty.
I want to snuggle him. He gives me feelings.
Youtube version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i2N41jIaHI
Just watched too (thanks for the reminder!). Agreed on Woodcroft, it’s almost impossible not to like the guy, and he is very thoughtful.
I’d love for he and Manson to return next year as well, but you’re (kinda) raising the question of what they need to do for that to happen. Good press conferences won’t cut it.
Almost certainly they need to get the team into the playoffs. After that, do they need to win a round? I wonder actually how different the expectations are from what they’d have been for Tippett (if at all).
In any case, they’ve been enjoyable additions. Hopefully things go real well and it’s a very easy decision to extend them longer term.
If Jay has the team playing the right way into the playoffs, but doesn’t win a round because of goaltending, it’s on Holland. Holland should be the one to go, not Woodcroft.
I’m not suggesting he *should* be let go if they don’t win a round. Especially if there are mitigating circumstances like notable injuries or goalies cratering.
I do think it would probably be difficult to retain him if the team doesn’t get into the playoffs though. Whether WoodMan stay on is tied to some degree to how the team does, and fair enough.
I very surprised so many have gone for KY 58 13-10-23 -8 playing cherry minutes. Sad to say but Yamo ver. 1.0 seems to have gone forever. Too often he seems like a boy amongst men and I see either him or Archie as a fourth line PK guy. Hope I am wrong.
Do you though?
That’s funny, since I have never been a particular fan if Yamamoto; but recently he is starting to play interesting hockey.
It would be nice to have all of Kane, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and McLeod next year, but it’s tricky with the Cap. Here’s an attempt to make it work:
As per Capfriendly, we’ll have 7.02M + Klefbom’s 4.167M LTIR to sign 8 players next season, including a starting goaltender. That’s 11.2M available.
Let’s say the cap goes up 1M (82.5M), we trade away Kassian with no money coming back (or in a package for starting goaltender), gaining 3.2M and trade Barrie and pay his replacement 3.5M to gain 1M, so that we have 16.4M to add 9 players (1G, 1 D, 7 F),
Then let’s say we sign the players as follows (probably unrealistic):
1) G Starting Goalie 4M 4 year deal
2) D Samorukov .775M existing deal
3) F Pulj 2.5M 1 year deal
4) F Yam 2M 1 year deal
5) F McLeod 1.4M 2 year deal
6) F Malone .85M 2 year deal
7) F Benson .85M 2 year deal
8) F Holloway .925M existing deal
= 13.3M
9) F Kane ???
16.4M – 13.3M = 3.1M left for Kane with no buffer.
Would Kane sign for less than 3.1M? Likely not. So we’d also have to trade Foegele with no money coming back and replace him with a .750M contract and perhaps LTIR Smith and replace with Skinner at .75M: 3.1M + 2M (Foegele savings) + 1.45M (Smith savings) = 6.55M left
That’s getting closer. Would Kane sign for 4.5M at a reasonable 4 year term (allowing for about 2.05M buffer in LTIR)? It’s still a long shot but maybe. If so, we could have:
Kane (4.5M)-McDavid-Puljujarvi
McLeod-Draisaitl-Hyman
Holloway-Nuge-Yamamoto
Benson-Malone-Ryan
Shore, (Depth F .75M)
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-(Barrie replacement at 3.5M)
Samorukov
Starting Goalie (4M)
Skinner (.75M)
= 2.05 under the (LTIR raised) cap (if inflated to 82.5M)
So it’s possible to sign Kane with the others, but very tight and maybe unrealistic. Would you do it?
It likely would mean trading Puljujarvi or Yamamoto in the longer term.
Valiant effort. Keeping all the higher up forwards would be wonderful, agreed.
I’d guess $4.5M isn’t going to be enough to get Kane signed, and I think Puljujarvi will also cost more than $2.5M, even on a 1 year deal.
The flip side is you could likely replace Barrie with a steady defender for less than $3.5M (assuming Bouchard will take another step next year). And the goalies.. possibly they actually cost less than $5M? Or way more?? Who the Oilers will employ in net next year, and how much they’ll make are pretty much total unknowns.
Holloway rang a post and made a dandy defensive play down low to the left of the Condors net. So good.
Skinner gets the start.
Marody back after missing 4.
Kesslring the healthy scratch (Kaldis back to D).
I missed most of the first – its 1-0 Stockton with 90 second to go.
Summarizing!
Welp, not much to summarize as the Generals got shut out 3-0 in an outdoor game in Hamilton. Tullio has now gone two games pointless after that 11-game streak.
Also, since the game was played at Tim Horton’s Field, one wonders if there were a lot of turnovers.
Well played, fine sir, well played.
Then I’d want an apple… Donuts suck.
If the Jets start a trade deadline sale, how about Foegele for DeMelo. Even in the summer.
They might lose Copp in the summer time.
I’m not really a fan of DeMelo. He can play bottom pairing but gets three mills a year and has term.
Copp is reportedly already on the trade block.
Hobey Baker top 10.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/icehockey-men/article/2022-02-18/mens-college-hockey-predictions-10-candidates-2022-hobey-baker-award?utm_campaign=inline-article
I’m the last person to ask about how the NCAA’s conferences compare with each other, and I haven’t seen a single NCAA game this year so I’m not making the argument Savoie should be on the list. But here he is compared to the forwards in the article:
Carter Savoie – 20 yrs – Den – NCHC – 34,20,22,42
Nathan Smith – 23 yrs – Minn St. – CCHA – 33,18,30,48
Matty Beniers – 19 yrs – Mich – Big 10 – 33,19,21,40
Bobby Brink – 20 yrs – Den – NCHC – 36,14,41,55
Ethen Frank – 24 yrs – West Mich – NCHC – 34,26,12,38
Bobby Trivigno – 23 – UMass-Am – H-East – 34,18,27,45
Maybe because his teammate (Brink) is seen as the better player Savoie gets dinged? Interestingly, only Smith and Beniers have significantly bigger frames than Savoie. The rest are approx Savoie’s height and significantly lighter.
Age is a huge deal when it comes to the NCAA
Dryden McKay is an undrafted NCAA Hobey Baker, Mike Richter nominated GOALIE. He probably is looking for an opportunity?
HYMAN/ CONNOR/ PULJUJARVI
KANE/ LEON/ YAMAMOTO
FOEGELE/ NUGE/ RYAN
KASSIAN/ MACLEOD/ ARCHIBALD
XT’S WILL BE: BENSON/ SHORE/ HOLLOWAY- you gotta earn a spot on the Oilers-not have it given to you
Carter Savoie was on with Gregor and Struds today – not much substance to the conversation regarding hockey stuff. Savoie did say the main strides this year are in his defensive game and structure stuff. No surprise there.
They talked mostly abut the life and college life and it seems Savoie is having a really fun year – last year was all Covid protocols, etc.
They didn’t speak at all about possibly leaving school and turning pro. Both Gregor and Struds think he’ll go back to school for another year and think the org will prefer that but that sounded like speculation. He did just turn 20. For me, I’d like to him to turn pro as it’ll get him some AHL games this year as a jump start to next year. At the same time, Denver is a good program with good coaching and he’d develop there as well.
As far as delaying his ELC by spending another year in college, I’d have to check the ELC parameter in the CBA to see when the max ELC switches from 3 to 2 years – I don’t think he’d be there yet.
In any event, for me, I hope he turns pro – one of the biggest things to learn is the grind of the pro game and schedule – its a huge step for most 20 year olds but might as well take it at 20/21 as opposed t 21/22 years old.
Kane – McDavid – Puljujarvi
McLeod – Draisaitl – Hyman
Holloway – RNH – Ryan
Well when you ask for feedback after telling everyone your position kind of defeats the purpose. This is called manipulating the results.
I want high end skill in my top 6, so this obviously excludes Puljujarvi.
I would continue to play him with McDavid up to the trade deadline and then sell high
This is a 4th liner comment.
Very disrespectful comment to 4th liners.
That is where Puljujarvi belongs alright.
This is the “Jean-Francois Jacques is starting on the first line” of blog comments.
This post is a bad impression of a troll post.
So witty. You even know what a troll is?
This post would make DSF blush.
Fair enough. Everyone is entitled to their opinion on any given player. But what are you using to back it up?
For eg, at 5v5, ie excluding cherry PP time, Pujo is 6th on the team in P/60, ahead of both Kane and Yams, and 4th in HDCF/60 while putting up the lowest shooting percentage of his career. Oilers are an outstanding 58.71 CF% when he’s on the ice, and 57.89 GF%.
He’s definitely not hurting us. Would it not behoove the coach to find someone clearly better for the top 6 before moving him out?
Now I do think there’s a trade risk, but that’s because he’s a good player, unsigned, and might bring something nice back.
Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi
McLeod/Kane (cost) – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Foegele – RNH – Ryan/Kassian (availability)
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi
McLeod Draisaitl Hyman
Holloway RNH Yamamoto
As others have said, Kassian, Barrie, and Foegele out for cap space.
I am the first to agree Evander has brought – MUCH – needed scoring to the forward group.
Almost getting awkward if he catches JP or Yamamoto here with a fraction of the games played. ( already blown by RNH and Foggy)
However, Evander turns 31 this summer and I am very surprised to see fans interested in making a bet on an aging power forward.
Not necessarily saying I disagree per se – but one has to think very long and hard about some of our past mistakes.
I believe he will sign elsewhere for ridiculous money.
I think it depends on the player, what sort of injuries they’ve had and off ice lifestyle
A lot of guys like that who washed out went because they were marginal skaters to begin with. Along with them went most of the big obstruction type D that couldn’t adjust because boots
I can see Kane being good for 3-4 years easy. Physically anyways. I would be hesitant to go longer than that. Also there will be a lot of forwards pushing at that point if they’re still around
Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) Tweeted:
**Breaking News**
@AnaheimDucks are trading Defenseman John Manson to @Avalanche for Defense Prospect Drew Helleson and a 2023 Draft Pick.
@espn @NHLNetwork #HockeyTwitter https://t.co/hMY8s2cd7C
https://twitter.com/KevinWeekes/status/1503494365523628036?s=20&t=wfKQBOXClxG9QSxGHW2JNw
More:
https://www.tsn.ca/colorado-avalanche-acquire-josh-manson-anaheim-ducks-1.1770820
Maybe this bursts the damn for trades.
Nobody can every accuse Sakic of standing pat.
Pretty sure he’s not done.
Anaheim retains half so Manson is only a $2 million cap hit for Colorado.
Wheeler has helleson as the AVs #8th ranked prospect projecting to be a solid 5/6th defenseman.
So that and a 2nd rounder for Manson with half retained.
Thats a decent deal both sides….but id go advantage Colorado given that snagging solid RHD at deadline is one of the hardest positions to chase down.
Replacement level player living on his reputation from previous years
Nonsense…positive across the board on a sketchy team.
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8476312
Remember Colorado has a state of the art analytics team.
He will thrive in Denver.
curious why you don’t use Dom or Jfresh for this one and we’ll the answer is predictable
Dom -0.3
Jfresh 18%
Both of those are snapshots in Anaheim..pretty meaningless when the player moves to a powerhouse.
Why is that meaningless?
im sure Avs will deploy him focusing on his strengths but this player type doesn’t age well
It’s a good move for the Avs butter soft D
Why would he need to age at all?
He’s a playoff rental.
I’m pretty sure his game won’t degrade over the next 3 months.
Adrian Dater (@adater) Tweeted:
From Ducks beat guy @icemancometh, whose opinion I immensely respect:When healthy Manson can be a matchup defender against the opposition’s top two forward lines. He has been one of Anaheim’s regular penalty killers and plays a rugged game that should suit well for the playoffs.”
https://twitter.com/adater/status/1503524908722057217?s=20&t=AsoZDJc8ChzQofXJAdeTUQ
Yep…Helleson has been very good in the NCAA this season and is likely to get some NHL action this season.
Joe filled a need with a big (6’4 220) RHD who is tough as nails to slot in behind Makar with Erik Johnson moving to the 3rd pair.
He’s balancing the puck movers with some big bodies.
Nick Alberga (@thegoldenmuzzy) Tweeted:
Hampus Lindholm & Rickard Rakell could be following Josh Manson out the door in Anaheim.
At this moment, I’m told there’s no ongoing negotiations on an extension with either player.
#FlyTogether
https://twitter.com/thegoldenmuzzy/status/1503503852867358720?s=20&t=Ln2PyI3QtnBlEjo7jSMA3g
It will be interesting to see what rackell is deemed to be worth on market.
Do we know what Puljujarvi’s injury was/is?
Nope, just lower body – so him “flying at practice”, from accounts, is a good sign he’s close.
MCL sprain. I don’t have a link so feel free to delete this LT.
It’s still more trustworthy than anything HH posts.
In season the hockey players life should be a very simple focused life.
David Pelletier has been getting some credit from players lately.
Holloway worked extensively with Pelletier while he was out injured. Holloway gives him credit for his improved skating and says that he’s a great guy.
Another player that was out injured recently gave praise to Pelletier for doing a good job keeping the players in shape. I forget who it was.
Pelletier is probably well suited to working one on one with skaters being a former figure skater. They do so much more work individually and as pairs with coaches whereas hockey players work so much more in groups.
He does look more explosive from a standstill can’t wait till they call him up. Between McDavid McLeod Holloway that is some high end speed.
With size too boot
I mean he’d be trained in honing in on details. And have the worked in ability to be patient and continually work on small details towards perfection. That type of work is not for everyone that’s for sure.
It was Kassian that gave kudos to Pelletier.
I’ve played against him in mens league hockey here in Edmonton. He’s an amazing hockey skater, in addition to his figure skating credentials. He likes to challenge his players to a lot of single leg skating drills, which are extremely difficult to do well (he makes it look easy).
Oh interesting. Thanks for that.
18-97-56
71-29-91
37-93-10
Hollaway- Malone- 44
91 signs 2x$3M
13 traded for Carter Hart
you lost me on JP dealt for Carter Hart…..He is not needed. Skinner can do what Hart is doing provided the team in front of him play defence.
Really? Based on what evidence? Not saying I’d do that trade, and I’m also a Skinner booster, but there is no evidence that this is true. Other than an off year behind a bad team last year, Hart has over 100 NHL games and numbers of a true #1 goalie
Hart is in that spot where if you don’t acquire him now you won’t be able to acquire him.
Hart and Skinner would set your goaltending for years to come at a little over $4M for both.
I REALLY like Jesse, but you need a number 1 goalie to win.
Wouldn’t Philly ask for Skinner in return? That would be in addition to JP or whatever asset they coveted from the Oilers.
Can’t see Philly doing that. They’d have to go out and get a starter.
Hyman – McDavid – Yamamoto
McLeod – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
Holloway – Nugent-Hopkins – Archibald*
I love what Evander Kane brings to the team and if we can get him on reasonable money over short term of course I’d do it but he is going to want to get paid.
The Oilers chose Hyman and Nuge last summer as forwards locked in well into their thirties. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on a similar Kane deal. Not with all the winger talent we have in the pipeline.
* I guess we don’t know if any restrictions will remain next season. And Archibald has only played one game this year. My love for his game gets him first crack at 3RW. Ryan could go there, and possibly Lavoie or Savoie could come up after 40 games. Although then Nuge would have two rookies flanking him so maybe not ideal.
The Hurricanes are reportedly close to signing 21-year-old center Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an 8-year deal in the range of $4.25 – 4.5M. Should the Oilers make a similar offer to Puljujarvi?
In a heartbeat!
He will likely get close to that in a 1-year award from the arbitrator this summer.
That would be a very nice comparable for the Oilers… especially when you consider how much more the man scores playing with our elite C’s. I’d be thrilled for both clubs to sign those deals.
I would.
Centres generally get paid more.
I’ve been speculating right in the AAV for Jesse but nowhere near 8 years – 3-4 years.
I saw that. Time to revise?
Not for me – that’s my current thoughts on what it will look like.
Lehkonen McDavid Pulj
McLeod* Draisaitl Hyman
Foegele Nuge Yamo
*assuming his strong play continues and he signs at an affordable rate
Ideally, Lehkonen would be C Brown (50% retained) but you said UFAs and RFAs so Lehkonen will have to suffice! This would include signing someone like Sturm as a 4C while creatively disposing of Kassian, Smith, and Barrie.
Names in the money-only category I considered for Lehky’s spot were Mikheyev, Vatrano, and Brassard.
Folks, Evander Kane -Needs -money.
If you are thinking about a discount…don’t bet on it.
I bet he signs another big contract with someone like philly
That would very much be a Philly move….
Agree … this was always going to be a half season fling, with him moving on to greener pastures next season. I appreciate what he’s doing for our team this season, but 30 year old power forwards should be someone else problem to overpay.
Hyman-McDavid-Jesse
McLeod-Draisaitl-Yamo
Foegele-RNH-Ryan
Holloway-Malone-Kassian
On the topic of Yamamoto – I think he’s doing fine. He’s 23 … just for perspective … Martin St Louis was in his first NHL season at age 23 and would take several more years to establish himself.
Comparing Yamamoto to St.Louis is hilarious have you ever seen St.Louis in person his legs are like Tree Trucks. He’s built like a Brick Shit House same with Fleury. There’s a reason why these player’s didn’t hit the deck every time they were touched.
I agree with you. People need to relax on Yamo and Jesse. Both should come in at relatively team friendly numbers.
He also needs a home for his family. I do think he’ll give Edmonton every chance to bring a reasonable offer.
Nobody knows what Kane’s thinking maybe he’s done with the high life and he wants to change the direction of his personal life.
It’s not like getting 5US over say 4 years he wouldn’t be filthy rich if he didn’t blow it
Players bank half from what I’ve read.
Also the ability with health to sign another good deal. I think a good team where he’s received, cup opportunity, and stability likely mean something to him
I’m not thinking about a discount, I’m thinking about what the market will dictate for terms.
Of course, market will be leary on term and I don’t imagine the AAV comes in anywhere near $7MM.
I’m not sure a 2 X $5MM deal isn’t reasonable even presuming the player will likely want more term.
Kane McDavid Yams
Hyman Drai Pujo
McLeod Nuge Ryan
Benson Holloway Kass
Shore
Malone
I’m not sure Holloway makes the team out of camp. They might want him to play 20 games at full health in the A, just to see. Shore will keep his seat warm.
Would attempt to dispose of both Kass and Foggy, otherwise there is no Kane. Pujo is in danger of a Holland trade I think. I’m hoping it doesn’t happen till he has the arb hammer, but as he’s more tradeable than Kassian… fortunately, I don’t see how Holly can re-coup full value for him, and I don’t think he trades him unless he can (top half 1st rounder), but maybe the promise of a value contract will be enticing to some GM, so I don’t count the possibility out.
I also don’t think that either 29 or 97 likes to play all that much with Pujo. Sorry for stating that, but I’ve seen both frustrated with his play when coming off the ice after a shift. I’m hoping Woody can get a simpler game out of him and that all self-corrects (I don’t think 97 & 29 dislike the person, just his play). Connor seems to tolerate and work with him better than Drai, but he also seems to work better with Kane and I’d prefer 13 and 91 be on separate lines.
At some point Lavoie comes in and drops Ryan to 4RW. First injury call-up for skill forwards.
Holloway learning the PK in Bako right now is key. I know I have him on the 4th line, but as crowded as the top 6 is, he’s very likely to be slotted somewhere bottom 6. PK is one way they can get him some ice time. And 2nd unit PP of course.
I think its been one game but he is now indeed starting to get a bit of PK time – that’s in its infancy.
There could be something with Jessie. More likely just communication.
Given that the third line is going to get ice time, Jessie could make a substantial impact there. I think he could use some more time handling the puck again. He had been deferring on puck handing and taking the net front role his last 10 games.
McLeod, Mcdavid, Puljujarvi
Hyman, Draisaitl, Yamamoto,
Holloway, Nug, Kane
Shooters, scores, hitters and puck retrievers on each line with additional fillins leftover for the 4th line. The top nine are a must, the leftovers need to be able to plug and play as required.
Great exercise LT. My only quibble is that anyone who includes Kane has to project his next contract and show how the Oilers are going to find the cap space.
My wingers would be Hyman, JP, McLeod, Yamamoto, Foegele and Kassian. Final product looks like this.
Hyman McDavid JP
McLeod Draisaitl Yam
Foegele Nuge Kass
Hollaway Shore Ryan
Benson
Nurse Ceci
Keith Bouchard
Soucy Broberg
Neimaleinin Samarukov
X
Skinner
RFA signings
JP 1 x 2.5
Yamamoto 2 x 2
McLeod 2 x 1.2
Benson 1 x .8
I traded Barrie for Soucy (cause everyone says it’s possible) straight up.
I bought out Smith.
That roster leaves the Oilers with just under 5 million to find a goalie. Problem is, the only projected UFA goalie who might be worth 5 million is Kuemper. And 5 million might not get him.
Holland is going to have to make some tough decisions this summer.
Very close to how I see it.
I think you are the closest to how it plays out. I don’t think Kassian will be back.
Hyman should play with Nuge. Their chemistry is great.
Nice comments from Woodcroft regarding the use of analytics (around the 6:15 mark): https://youtu.be/5i2N41jIaHI
Love listening to him.
I liked his answer about not putting limits on guys.
Thought it was interesting: Smith has to earn the right to feel confident in practice. I think woodcroft has exactly one goalie he is currently confident in.
I will preface this comment by saying: I am not interested in talking about vaccination status.
Do folks really want Archibald back next season? The guy was part of the Oilers’ bottomless six for two seasons. Has poor fancies and will be 30 next year. He is not big, he is not particularly fast, and I still have not forgiven him for the fucking penalty against the Jets.
I am hoping Holland is aiming a bit higher.
He’s obviously expendable, but he brings something very few players on this team deliver. If he goes, he must be replaced by someone with bite.
I’m sure they’re playing him in part to showcase him.
Yep, Archibald is playing so he can be traded. He’s a replacement level 4th liner who passes the eye test. Time to move on
He’s got game. Even in his highly criticized penalty he took against Stanley, he was the only Oiler who even tried to tackle Stanley. And Stanley was wreaking havoc on any Oiler in sight, completely unopposed.
When I heard about his vaccination choice I did think to myself that if anyone was to make up their mind and not budge, it would be Archie.
Having said all this, I completely agree that we should and can aim higher.
I appreciate his tenacity, physicality and speed, but he has a significant habit of being undisciplined in his play. Two prime examples in his 2 most recent games for him. His penalty and suspension for his hit on Logan Stanley in game 3 against the Jets and his going way out of position to hit Perry leaving the right point wide open into the slot for the Bogosian goal. Neither play was the right choice to be made to further the goals of the team.
The Oilers weakness for the last several years has been its inability to adhere to its defensive process. They play disciplined for decent stretches but then have these lapses that lead to them running around, and Archibald tends to be guilty of this more than most. If Woodcroft and his staff can get Archibald to make on ice decisions that will truly be best for what the team is trying to accomplish, I think he could be an effective 4th liner.
I really like him. But come on, how does this work in reality? He needs to be traded.
For goalies – I still think the Oilers should be considered a darkhorse to land Fluery.
He’s stated that he wants another shot to win. Teams that need goalies include:
Toronto: good team but has to survive the Florida gauntlet. Unlikely to win out of R1
Avs: Definitely good but also may not make a goalie move. If they do, Kuemper shakes loose and the Oilers have targeted him in the past.
Washington: They need a goalie however they are more of a bubble team and also would have to get past the beasts in the east.
Golden Knights: Trending in the wrong direction, and Fluery has asked to not go back there
Oilers: Have an easier path through the Pacific division to a conference final. Obviously not a slam dunk but it’s easier than trying to beat Tampa/Florida/Carolina in a seven game series.
Who else needs a goalie? Maybe Boston?? Penguins? Neither are really desperate.
If Fluery is serious about wanting to win, of all the teams in need of goaltending right now, I’d put the Oilers second behind the Avs in terms of likelyhood of going on a run. If the Oilers wait until late in the game, and throw a last minute offer, I think fluery might reconsider coming to Edmonton. He has never played for a Canadian team, and experiencing a cup run in a Canadian city might be up on the ol’ bucket list, especially a potential BoA series.
May be a long shot but I think the Oiler still have a compelling story to sell to Fluery. Especially if they can win two/three more games on this homestand and really be in position on trade deadline day to make the playoffs.
Avalanche have freed up Landeskog’s cap space via the Kucherovian loophole.
They can add Fleury and keep Kuemper.
Fleury will want to be ‘the man’ though, which would be the case in Edm, To, Boston
IF (and its an IF) this McLeod/Drai thing shows to be real over a real stretch, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to run the centers 4:
McDavid
Drai
Nuge
Holloway
It may not be enough ice time for Holloway although he could make that line dynamically playable in a rolling 4-lines scenario.
One of the greatest talents we are seeing recently is McLeod’s speed, and the best way to release that speed is at center. Hes not the greatest shot or finisher as of yet but his skating looks to be top 10 percentile of the league.
I don’t disagree and have stated many times my preference is for him to drive a bottom 6 line at center.
At the same, I can’t discount his play the last couple of games with Leon and how absolutely dynamic they were on Saturday. Despite McLeod having zero points, that was McLeod’s most dynamic NHL game and they were absolutely fire.
I need to see more of that duo to determine how I would prefer to deploy McLeod (not that my preference matters at all).
This is my issue with having JP Yama and McLeod in the top 6. None are finishers and that makes it hard on Connor and Leon
It is suppressing team O. Kane is a better scorer than all of them. Hyman isn’t bad but also not a high level finisher, more a high level two way guy
I don’t see how a largely rehabbed Holloway doesn’t make the team next season
Kenny needs to read the tea leaves correctly and plan ahead.
Hey LT, I enjoyed your Athletic write up on Bouchard yesterday.
You should have said “Hey Winchester, take a look at these Bouchard stats – you donkey!”
As Im pretty sure my posts were at least somewhat of a trigger. haha
What I believe we will see for a top nine is based on the Oilers either unable or unwilling to re-sign Kane.
Hyman. McDavid Pulujarvi
Holloway Draisaitl Ryan
Foegele. Nuge. McLeod
If they are able to re-sign Kane what I would like to see is:
Kane McDavid Yamamoto
Hyman Draisaitl Puljujari
Foegele Nuge McLeod
it is my belief that given the players currently on the roster it gives us three balanced lines both offensively and defensively. It also should give management a reasonable amount of depth for the fourth line.
This is so much more fun than it has been in the past.
Kane McDavid Jessie
Nuge Daisaitl Yamamoto
Foegele McLeod Hyman
Holloway Ryan Archibald
Top line no suprise. Jessie good on give and go. Having Kane as a possession player and even net front might unlock more of Jessies game as hes ben a bit stifled as of late.
Im going a little retro and a little hopeful here on the second line. I want Nuge to be back with Drai. Hes good on the give and go, hes smart, Drai is the shooter. Yamo turns pucks over and is fearless.
The big change. I think McLeod swooping low and heading up the ice is McDavid like, zone entry machine. It takes away the smart vet (Nuge) from third line scoring, but replace him with Hyman there. Reason is Hyman can drive possession there. Hyman can lead. Hes often head down driving for the net. So is Foegele. Give them a fast, fast puck transporter and see what they can do.
Holloway makes the team. Archibald is the next best RW with Kassian close. Kassian inconsistent play is holding him back. Traded or he plays about 50 games due to injuries, but not great use of cap space.
Perlini – you see the difference Kane makes when he just shoots the puck. I think Perlini needs another chance in my opinion, I was not able to see what he coach could.
So many options!
It’s true, but I feel like he’s also doing a lot of the things for/with Draisaitl that McDavid did.
The way McLeod’s speed opened up ice, and how McLeod and Draisaitl read off each other vs TB was extremely impressive. It would be a huge deal if they can keep doing all that on the regular.
McGambler – McDavid- McBison
McLeod -McPissy – McHyman
McCaulaway – McNugget – McLovin
McCrazy – McMoto – McWaffle
Assuming continued progression, I see Lavoie likely getting some games next year – probably not out of camp but as injury fill-in, etc.
I can see him starting on the 3rd line, his two way game is coming, and, if Nuge is the 3C next year, from a high level I can see those two perhaps playing well together.
Lavoie is able to find soft spots and get that shot off but he’s learning to battle on the boards and, a few times a game, just like in junior, he bulls the puck towards the net with size and power.
He’s moving his feet. it’s always been that. He’s getting to plays now he wasn’t getting to because he’s constantly in motion. I’m thrilled for his season.
Of note, Gregor mentioned Jesse was flying at practice today so its probably looking good for his return on Thursday (not tomorrow).
Man, if McLeod has another plus game showing chemistry with Drai, Jesse’s return could really help the top 9 balance and depth…. with Nuge still to come.
Agreed
Real redemption for the early fans of Mcleod.
Some macro trends this year:
I believe LeBrun said today that 16 teams are into their LTIR this year, an unprecedented number. I speculate that some of that is compressed schedule. Some of it is teams leveraging the strategy.
How much are those cap issues weighing on the trade deadline?
Goal-scoring is up this year. Save percentages down. Some of that has to be injury effect and some expansion effect.
Seems that Bettman-point games are down too this year. A rough glance looks like about 10%, maybe a little more, I feel like they tend to happen more at the end of the schedule, so maybe that number corrects somewhat when based on a full season..
According to this excellent page at hockey-reference, save percentage has stabiized at .908 this year. Topped out at .915 a few years back. I think the streamlining of goalie gear is having as an effect, even as everyone gets mad when it’s their goalie leaking one through the hole between arm & body.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html
Bettman points are down about 4%, with points percentage dropping in rounded numbers from .556 to .554. (Source: also H-R, but a different page). In rough terms about 22% of games produce a bonus point. I believe you are correct that they tend to rise near the end of the schedule, did a study a few years ago that supported that notion. Still the worst rule change in the history of hockey.
I had forgotten about the streamlining of goalie equipment.
Complete eye ball test stuff but I have seen numerous – almost goals- of just what
you describe. Pucks squirting through arm and chest. I believe it almost happened to Koskinen last game.
How does Vasilevskiy still get away with that huge chest protector?
Question, since I can’t recall, but how much have Kane and Bison overlapped in the lineup…or was Bison already hurt when we signed Kane?
9 games
Thank you!
This is UNNACCEPTABLE! I demand you change your Fuhr-based nickname to something less clever. I will not be shown up like this.
Kane- McDavid- Kessel
Mcleod – Draisaittl-Hyman
Domi -Nuge- Pulijujarvi
Malone-Ryan – Archibald
I would rid us of Kassian, Barrie, Smith, Shore, Benson, and Yamamoto.
I Hope Kessel ( 1 yr ) and Domi sign on the cheaper side to play with the Oilers.
Keep Halloway + Lavoie in Bakersfield till Christmas and access, If not dominating then again at the trade deadline. Depending on injuries
Domi is one of my favourites from years ago (London-Arizona days). He really hasn’t taken off like I thought he would but maybe that means he’d be cheap?
Kassian and Foegele and Barrie have to go to create cap space, certainly two of the three. Thing is, the Oilers don’t need to get anything back. Foegele is probably more tradeable than Kassian. Might be stuck with Kassian.
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi
McLeod Draisailt Hyman
Holloway Nugent-Hopkins Yamamoto
Benson, Shore, Malone, Ryan,
Not bad. 4th line a little fugly. I might substitute Kassian for Puljujarvi using your model😉
Smith, barrie, kassian, foegle and 1st
For
Driedger, jarnkrok and Appleton
Driedger might not be an answer, there are rumblimgs in seattle having too much tied up in substandard goal so he’s not likely much of a draw due to two years additional on contract and year he’s had.
Jarnkrok as a rental
Appleton is a better answer than Archibald or kassian for bottom 6 RW and is reasonable cost.
Look at it another way:
-Smith barrie foegle for driedger and jarnkrok (look at their PP they could use barrie)
-kassian and 1st for Appleton
It’s far from ideal but when I look at sellers I think its at least possible you could one stop shop there. Pay what you have to to stand a chance of better balance next year now if you can.
Selling the future for possible better in the short term rarely turns out well!😉
I like this mostly
Yama is fine, I continue to find it difficult to want him on the Oilers
I feel they need more truculence especially with Kassian out. There’s only 3.5 harder players in that 12, Benson being the .5. I should add a .5 for Leon so 4
What Yama does that way is inconsequential. Lots of skill but no crust and that will get exploited again
Since I get to make the call today, I would make 6 identical wingers with Hyman’s MacGyver skills, Jesse’s offense, Kane’s toughness, McLeod’s speed, Yam’s slipperiness, and Holloway’s motor. As a bonus, I would throw in Tikkanen’s incoherent chirps.