Against original six teams, Connor McDavid has scored 28-77-105 in 83 games. That’s 1.27 points-per-game against the teams that are ahead by a century. Against expansion teams, the captain is 199-353-552 in 382 games. That’s 1.45 points-per-game. It’s been 55 years since expansion, but all of the original six have enjoyed powerhouse runs of dominance (NY Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs less than the rest).
McDavid is 3-8-11 in 10 games versus Detroit Red Wings over the years and has never had a big night against the winged wheel. Detroit has never been a truly good team since 97 entered the league. Saturday’s game saw McDavid playing at speeds that threatened the speed of sound. Perhaps we’ll be gifted with another such event this evening.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s case for a spot on Oilers’ skill lines
- New DNB: Oilers’ recent play only underscores that upcoming trade deadline must be a time to act
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- DNB: Markus Niemelainen collecting catchy nicknames as his surprise breakout accelerates
- Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be starting games for the Oilers right now
- Lowetide: How much do the Oilers miss Jesse Puljujarvi?
- DNB and Lowetide: Who says no? Evaluating 25 Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Could Philip Broberg be Oilers’ answer for problem defence?
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl postgame Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 3-2-1, 7 points in 6 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 32-23-4, 68 points in 59 games
The hard part of the home stand (I projected 0-1-1, Edmonton went 2-0-0) is over and this should be a major moment in the season. Fans who have observed the Oilers playing to the level of opposition have a right to be concerned, but this is go time for an organization that wants to contend and this is the opportunity given. Detroit (2-7-1), Buffalo Sabres (4-6-0), New Jersey Devils (5-5-0) and Edmonton (4-5-1) have seen some hard times in recent days. If Edmonton wins tonight, they’ll be on track to finish with 96 points and that probably gets it done. The Vegas Golden Knights have to figure out if there’s a need to make a big move in goal this week, if the VGK’s continue to fade Edmonton’s playoff path gets far easier.
DYLAN HOLLOWAY
Holloway scored last night for a Condors team that can’t find the ocean right now on offense. In his most recent 11 games, Holloway has scored six goals, and three in his last four. In the last three games, Holloway has two goals and the rest of the Bakersfield roster has one. He had a fine night on Monday in a 2-1 loss, plenty of heady play defensively, some nice passing and of course the late goal. He’s NHL-ready.
Stuart Skinner has allowed three goals in the last two games, .944 save percentage and a 1-1-0 record. Could use some offensive support in California.
OILERS FORWARDS WITH WOODCROFT AS COACH
This is sorted by Points-per-60 and is the work of Natural Stat Trick (all numbers even strength). I wanted to show how many forwards have been contributing over 1.00 goals-per-60 (Ryan, McDavid, Malone, Puljujarvi, Hyman, Kane, Yamamoto, that’s seven) and 2.00 points-per-60 (Kassian, Ryan, McDavid, Malone, Puljujarvi, Draisaitl, Hyman, Kane, that’s eight) in the Woodcroft games.
These Oilers are shooting and scoring more at even strength under the new coach. When Dave Tippett ran the team, the shots-per-60 (31.5) and goals-per-60 (2.67) were 50.1 and 47.2 percent of the overall share, respectively.
Woodcroft is running 33.8 shots-per-60 (54 percent share) and 3.35 goals-per-60 (61.5 percent share) and that’s a handsome increase from the Tippett numbers. Some of those shooting percentages are high in the rockies, but special teams regressing should make up for that in the days to come.
Encouraging 15 games, Woodcroft is now 9-5-1, that’s a .633 winning percentage. Tippett ended with a 23-18-3 record, a .557 winning percentage. Woodcroft’s results make more sense to me, because I was learning all these numbers during the Craig MacTavish era. That man could coach the five-on-five.
YOU MADE THE CALL!
I asked an you delivered! Here are the most popular wingers, by your votes, for each of Edmonton’s three mega-centers:
- Evander Kane (24)-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi (33)
- Ryan McLeod (29)-Leon Draisaitl-Zach Hyman (19)
- Dylan Holloway (23)-Nuge-Warren Foegele (17)
The odd man out is Kailer Yamamoto, but he was popular among voters. Here is the raw vote, with votes for player on each line in brackets:
- Jesse Puljujarvi: 44 (33, 9, 2)
- Zach Hyman: 44 (18, 19, 7)
- Ryan McLeod: 38 (2, 29, 7)
- Kailer Yamamoto: 34 (8, 12, 14)
- Evander Kane: 32 (24, 7, 1)
- Dylan Holloway: 30 (1, 6, 23)
- Warren Foegele: 17 (0, 0, 17)
- Derek Ryan: 14 (0, 1, 13)
- Zack Kassian: 2 (0, 1, 1)
- Tyler Benson: 1 (1, 0, 0)
- Raphael Lavoie: 1 (0, 0, 1)
- Josh Archibald: 1 (0, 0, 1)
I think Evander Kane is unlikely to be signed, that would mean the wingers would be (by line) Hyman-Puljujarvi, McLeod-Yamamoto and Holloway-Foegele. Based on total votes, Yamamoto on the fourth line is outside the spirit of the voters, but Warren Foegele gets the most third-place votes and wins the day. I enjoyed this, and thanks for participating!
MIKKO KOSKINEN
An exchange yesterday between Oilers goaltender Mikko Koskinen and a member of the media got a lot of attention. I’m not interested in that exchange specifically, but we can talk about the player and the quote. Does Koskinen tire when overplayed? There is some evidence in his back story that in fact he doesn’t perform as well when overplayed. That should not be a shock to you.
I wrote about this situation back for The Athletic in September of 2019, about Koskinen’s 2018-19 season: Koskinen had a solid start to his first season in Edmonton. In his first 21 games, he delivered a 12-7-1 record and a save percentage of .919, playing on back-to-back nights zero times. In his final 34 games, he went 13-14-5 with an .897 save percentage, playing on back-to-back nights five times and with too much work for the rest of the schedule.
I wasn’t the first to identify this issue, and it wasn’t Koskinen’s fault, but the Oilers absolutely verbalized more of a “shared” role for the following season in goal. In 2019-20, with more rest and a significant partner, Koskinen posted a .917 SP in 38 games.
This year, Koskinen struggled in December, but has been solid at other times. He went 12-2-0 during October and November (.914 SP) but slipped in December through January 20 (.867 in eight games). It’s unfair to blame to goalie, as injuries, Covid and rookie defensemen all contributed, but there were some tough games in there. Since January 22, he’s .922SP and since Woodcroft took over Koskinen is .924 while going 5-1-1.
His resume is inconsistent, and the chances of the big man having some wobble down the stretch is good. He has a .906 save percentage this season, a .908 save percentage for his career with Edmonton. We know who Mikko Koskinen is, and he certainly should have the net half of the time.
It’s the other half we’re talking about, and based on his own history, I think it wise to acquire another substantial goaltender. That’s not an attack. That’s reading the numbers and reaching a conclusion. I like Koskinen. I think the contract hurt him and it’s unlikely the big man will return because of it. I have said on many occasions the expectations for me are that he signs with another NHL team and flourishes. I do not think he’ll play 60 games a year and be successful. I think that’s fair.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the air on TSN 1260 with the Lowdown. Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will bring his opinion and swagger to the show and we’ll also chat about the Detroit Red Wings during a season where rookies are announcing their presence with authority. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
NEW for The Athletic: Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci emerging as top pair for Oilers
https://theathletic.com/3183811/2022/03/16/lowetide-darnell-nurse-and-cody-ceci-emerging-as-top-pair-for-oilers/
Oilers are playing like a 2nd or 3rd place team. Too late for 1st obviously.
Playoffs are another matter altogether, as we fans all know.
The team can play fantastic, from time to time. Get that in Game 7 of the next Finals…
Natural Stat Trick’s game data is incorrect tonight.
Your Weekly Late Night Tuesday Game Review:
What a beginning. An absolute clinic on cycling the puck. Then Detroit decide they don’t like embarrassment and pull their heads out of their asses. We started losing races to pucks, one forward would fly the zone early… we were cheating for O on passes, coverage, back pressure, everything.
Never really turned it around except for shifts here and there although 97 was really flying again, but he too was vacating the early at times. I feel like they saw the chance to rack up some points against a team weak in their own end and were just too tempted whenever temptation presented itself. Some pass attempts we saw tonight I thought Jay had completely rid the team of. High risk all over the place.
I have no problem with the way Koski played tonight. That was a Fuhr-like performance. Fuhr was famous for letting in the bad late goal and letting the other team get back into it, and then shutting the door the rest of the way for the win. Almost the worse thing that could happen to a team was to get a bad goal by him.
That goal tonight, of course, was the one that K-os played. Puck came off the boards on an angle when both he and Keith (it looked like) thought it was going to slide along the boards. So rather than just sweeping it along, now he has to stop it and play it. Meanwhile, right as he is about to play it, Keith jumps over his stick, and the puck, from Koski’s blindside, so Kosk pulls the string… and then plays it weakly on the double clutch. So it was a bit of a discombobulation of affairs that was taken advantage of by a hard-skating Wings player. Not a good goal by Koski, but not awful, and sometimes scheisse happens. How do you respond?
The way he did. Notice he never lost his swagger? #Manwood
And remember, the very play before that Detroit dump-in was Koski playing the puck well behind his net and head-manning it for a relay that nearly sprang Yams on a break.
I was happy to see Foeglethorpe get the game winner. He’s put in three or four really good games where his chances just haven’t gone in, and he’s been just as good in his own end. Nice to see him rewarded. If that’s the Foegele were getting going forward, I’m totally okay with the trade.
Helluva game from Samwise on the night he ties his dad in games played. That’s a special night done right, sans the win. Hope there was some acknowledgement before the game.
Does Lagesson draw in on Thursday? Oil are going to make a move at 3LD, for sures. Everyone knows they covet Soucy, but I think that’s out of their league, without someone the Kraken wants going the other way.
They better not play like this in front of Smith on Thursday or it is going to be ugly. I trust Jay to limit this BS to one game though.
Gonna fire up the game on delay.
Seems my remarks about struggling with The Sisters of the Poor last night were timely.
Good thing this happened in the first game of the stretch and they still managed two. Woody can go to the whip a bit after the performance described below…
Now, sadly, I have to see it with my own eyes.
Woody should make the oilers team watch the Avs Kings game to learn how to play a defensive game. We should’ve played the Wings the way Avs are playing the Kings.
Did you hear Sutter’s comments about the Wildcard team that’s going to face the Avs in the 1st round it’s hilarious. He said they’re wasting 8 days of their life because the Avs are that good. 20 games away from the playoffs and the wily Sutter is already planting the seed.
Yep – I loved that too. Stroking their ego, “the Avs are going all in” … might as well just give them a bye to the Stanley Cup because a top rated regular season team has never been knocked out in the first round. Good stuff!
The Miracle on Manchester still hurts bad after 40 years.
Yeah! he’s a real piece of work! Remember how he downplayed McDavid’s goal where he beat 5 defenders to score? Quipped that MacDavid beat only 1 defender as the others were going for a change,….
But honestly, the Avs play an insanely fast and committed game. I am dreading the games between the Oil and Avs. Unless we catch them on a 5 games in 7 nights kind of secnario, the games are going to be guaranteed losses.
You need Speed Goaltending and Physicality to beat the Avs or Leon going Super Nova while playing net at the same time.
The miracle on Manchester still hurts bad 40 years later.
I wonder what Sutter thought about the 8th place team playing the 2006 Red Wings…..?
Oilers bested the Kings last time out.
6-3 Canucks over NJ with 6 min remaining
The Canucks will be 3 back of us with the Oilers having 1 game in hand
COL 2-0 over LA with 18 min remaining in the 3rd
3-0 now with under 10 to go.
Oilers likely to be 4 back with 2 games in hand….. destiny…. own hands….
Good thing the guys told to stop pucks at the other end were worse than Koski.
This is what you get with him. He’ll suck you in for 2-3 starts. I havent looked it up, but Im assuming his quality starts % is bottom quarter
2-3 starts? I think he was quite good for a much longer string of games than 2-3 starts.
The key is Saturday and how he bounces back – all goalies have crap games.
Koski has had too many in his nhl career. That’s the point of my comment
Wasn’t your point was that you were guessing he’s had too many?
I haven’t looked it up either, but that’s largely because the quality starts stat is junk.
Oilers are two points ahead of the Knights, with two games in hand????
My goodness!
How the mighty have fallen!
The key is how he plays on Saturday.
Smith will play Thursday (which I presume would have been the case in any event) and Mikko back on Saturday (he better be) and I’m confident he’ll play well.
Two points. Burn the tape. Nexxxxt!
Another good timeout call that Oiler fans are unaccustomed to. #extendthewood #retireolddutch
Personally I thought it should have been used after the 3rd goal.
I wanted it after the first or second goal. But then a TV timeout kicked in so seemed unnecessary
@Lowetide
I’m very curious… Why would Grandma Lowetide have to say about this game tonight? You have imaginary conversations with yourself all the time on this blog… What about an imaginary conversation with her?
I think she would have made cocoa after Koskinen’s adventure. Maybe worked on a puzzle.
Watching the away broadcast was entertaining Daniels and Redmond have fun they crack jokes. They have Rheaume as a in between period analyst. After Mikko effed up on the 5th goal Mickey and Daniels were calling on her to get her gear on and take over for Mikko because he sucks. She’s 50 years-old that’s hard to believe seems like yesterday she was suiting up for Tampa
Mikko Koskinen keeps on winning. Some haters will be out tonight because of his .857 save percentage (and a few bad goals). But the Oilers won. When they played Detroit in November, Stuart Skinner had a .921 save percentage, and lost. He isn’t always pretty, but especially this year, Mikko gets us wins.
Just win baby.
The Rebound control by Mikko was nothing short of Horrendous. I’ll be surprised if he starts next game.
I don’t think Mikko was starting Thursday even if he was very good tonight.
How soon people forget.
Mikko’s batting a 904 save percentage that’s not very good in todays game. Unless Mikko has a exceptional playoff run he’s not returning. If Smith’s healthy it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts come Playoff pressure cooker time.
Do you mean that it’s become a matter of faith?
Oilers win – VGK lose and LAK down by one to the Avs. Glorious night. A couple bad goals on Mikko but that is the Oiler way. Good win by the home team.
Very friendly out-of-town scoreboard tonight.
Oilers always struggle to play a full 60 minutes; I feel like once they get up by a few goals, they feel all fat and happy and start holding back and playing cute. That’s why you see so many blown oiler leads imo. Until this team learns how to have a killer instinct, this will continue to be a problem. Also, Skinner when? If not now, why??
Do the Oilers do this more than most though?
They have a 23-1-1 record when leading after 2, don’t they?
Usually, the Oilers play down to their opponent’s level and lose. Tonight they played down to their opponent’s level and won. #babysteps
If NHL teams were cars, Oilers are the red Fiat convertable.
Yup had one of those. The carbs were in LTIR most of the time. The electrical system was the PP – good for awhile then long stretches of not so much. Miss the 124.
Fix It Again Tony
This made me chuckle.
Happy to say I learned how to drive in Italy on their motorways while still very young lmao.
Here is the reality to Italian roads: Everyone is in a Formula One Race.
Brenner Pass baby!
Kane now has 10 goals in 21 games… Perfect fit on the oilers is an understatement!
it’s seriously too bad that he’s playing his way into a contract that will be too rich for the oilers. My guess is 4-5 year $7-8M AAV. Great for him I guess. Who ever signs him to his next contract will probably regret it within days of signing it.
Guy comes in under huge personal pressure, no games under his rusty belt, and blows the incumbent wingers out of the water. Hyman less so
No the Oilers can’t afford Kane, but can afford all the guys that can’t score enough per usage with elite players
Or play consistently game to game
I actually don’t think it’s too bad. I’m very glad that he’s playing well for the Oilers, and very glad that he likely won’t be an Oiler for long. That’s a win-win.
I would like for us to be the first (and likely only) place where he leaves before wearing out his welcome. His opening press conference with us showed that he still hasn’t taken responsibility for what happened in any of the other locker rooms he was shown out of.
But I’ll cheer for him while he’s scoring goals for us this year.
I like him plenty on the ice … just a damn good player … quick, physical with just enough of a mean streak to intimidate without taking damn penalties, good shot, takes care of things in his own zone quite adequately.
He’s a bridge to a more experienced Jesse, Yamo and McLeod, and has allowed for Holloway to stay down in the minors this season for some much needed pro development.
Good on him for making hay with this opportunity.
What he does and how he is off the ice is none of my business.
The Oil win, but that was not a good game for them.
McLeod, Kassian and Malone were the only Oiler skaters held pointless.
Of that group, I did not see Kassian good. One blunderous play, with the puck on his stick, resulted in a clear breakaway… Koski saved.
I think it was Bouch with the great defensive play on that one.
Kass has his one good game in 10 in his first game back. Probable arrival of his next good game probably not till past April Fools.
Dutch is cancelling his extra phone lines
Mkay so… let’s not win that way again.
Two points though!
Grabbing ahold of that playoff spot slowly but surely
E.Van.Der Kane. Never in doubt.
That’s 10 for Kane now, he’s been as advertised.
Could this guy be a 20-goal scorer this year?
I believe 3 have been empty netters
Kane is stealing Archie’s lunch money.
Sounds like the coach trusts him to protect the lead in critical situations.
The OIlers have been lousy at empty netters. If Kane can score them, he is fixing a know weakness.
Take the 2 pts and burn the game tape.
Well, that was exciting
And not in a good way
Where’s OP? He hasn’t posted since 8.35 when he said Mikko would rebound (from goal 2).
Should someone check on him?
Had to pick the wife up from work at 9 – watched the 3rd on tape delay!
When the reality sets in that Miko is a talented but highly unstable goalie, the come down is hard
What a nice touch pass from Leon to Evander
That goal happens cause McDavid doesn’t try to send it up the boards past a wing like the last 5 Oiler attempts.
Exactly.
The ole Kris Russell special. Or was it the Adam Larsson special?
Why the hell is Shore on the ice in the last two minutes? WOOOOODDDDYYY!!!!
I feel way too sweaty after that win. Thanks a lot Oilers!
That was a pretty open netter!
I have not been able to watch tonight.
I checked the score in the first and it was 3-1 Oilers.
I am honestly surprised the score is only 6-5.
Wings winning all the battles.
Lost the war though.
I don’t care what the score is and I don’t care what level you’re officiating – there’s no room in hockey for the hit that Archibald had to absorb there. That’s a must have even if a goal gets scored right after the hit
No call for a cross check into Archibald’s back but the Draisaitl ‘hook’ is a penalty. Right.
Wow, what a dive.
Veleno with a great technical dive. Minimal splash.
Red wings broadcast asking Manon Rhéaume if she wants to play goalie for the oilers.
And her response was not with the shitty team defense they play.
Average goaltending and its 6-3. Not hating on Kosk but tired of the insanity of pairing him with smith. We’ve seen this before. We have to watch smith for another year. I don’t have a solution other than playing skinner since December.
Too much time left
Anyone else terrified about the last 5?
Lol. This is the weirdest game in a while…
Good on ya Foegele!
This 4th line. Man. 2-goals. Thank you.
McLovin showing off his silky mitts…
Foggy with the dagger.
Why does everyone call it a dagger?!? That’s like ASKING for the hockey gods to smite us!
Warren is the Foegele point of the offense!
Are the oilers killing a penalty??? Why the f**k is nobody at point when McDavid rims it around?
This is fucking nauseating. This is the play of a team that doesn’t deserve to make the playoffs. Even if they win, it’ll feel like a loss. Woody should be pretty worried about this effort.
I’ve come to think the Oilers may be overpopulated with players that may not think the game at a high level
Or/And have enough focus to play and learn, to improve game to game
I employ people like this. Nice folk, trained up the ying yang, 3 times around the goldfish and back to square one
For Oilers identify and exchange please