In some seasons, the prospect pipeline doesn’t deliver much in the way of usable pieces. A few prospects will spend some time in the NHL, and show some flashes, but it’s rare for true rookies to grab a job in-season. This year, Ryan McLeod is winning a top-nine forward role, and Stuart Skinner has earned (not yet received) a job as part of an NHL goalie tandem.
Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov have all played in the league this year, the first two have played over 30 percent of the season so far in the NHL.
The 2021-22 season has a chance to deliver more actual NHL players (200+ games) than any rookie crop in a long time.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Early look at Oilers free-agent targets for 2022 offseason
- DNB: Why Ryan McLeod’s best outing matters so much to the Oilers
- Lowetide: 3 changes Jay Woodcroft could make immediately to improve Oilers
- Lowetide: The legend of Oilers prospect Matvei Petrov continues to grow
- DNB: Oilers’ defensive warts on full display in critical game against hated Flames
- Lowetide: Are Oilers approaching a crossroads with Zack Kassian?
- DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2022 draft strategy takes shape after trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers’ solid deadline adds depth but without goaltending upgrade, top concern remains
- Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
- Lowetide: 9 Oilers prospects who could be available in trade at the deadline
- Lowetide: Is Oilers winger Warren Foegele doing enough to warrant his contract?
- DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
- Lowetide: Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci emerging as top pair for Oilers
- Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s case for a spot on Oilers’ skill lines
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play only underscores that upcoming trade deadline must be a time to act
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- DNB: Markus Niemelainen collecting catchy nicknames as his surprise breakout accelerates
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 5-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 37-25-5, 79 points in 67 games
A loss tonight would mean I correctly predicted the month of March. Since it had more swerves and fender bending than the average Nascar 500 miler, I think that would be a pretty good job of predicting the future. If the Oilers want to go ahead and win this game, well that would be fine, too.
200+ Games (or matriculating to it)
Since 2010, the year the Oilers turned the franchise into a draft factory, the 200-game plateau has been reached by the first-round selections like clockwork. The team hasn’t delivered many McLeod or Skinner types, players who either made the 200-game mark from outside the first round or appear to be getting there.
Now, a 200-game career for a forward or skater isn’t the same as a goalie who reaches that plateau, so we have to make some allowances for position. Since my prospect rankings graduate skaters at 50 games, and goalies at 25, I think 100 NHL games is a fair line in the sand for goalies. Here are the rookie crops by year since 2010.
- 2010-11 (5): Jordan Eberle (843); Jeff Petry (792); Taylor Hall (745); Devan Dubnyk (542); Magnus Paajarvi (467). Petry was a second-round pick in 2006, one of the best selections by Edmonton outside the first round in the last 30 years.
- 2011-12 (2): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (704); Anton Lander (215). Lander was a second rounder who had most of the skills required to play in the NHL, lacking only speed.
- 2012-13 (3): Justin Schultz (588); Nail Yakupov (350); Chris VandeVelde (278). VandeVelde a fourth-round pick in 2005, he would spend most of his NHL career with the Philadelphia Flyers. Justin Schultz was a second-round pick in 2008 by the Anaheim Ducks, but signed as a college free agent with Edmonton.
- 2013-14 (4): Oscar Klefbom (378); Tyler Pitlick (313); Brad Hunt (228); Martin Marincin (227). Pitlick and Marincin were second-round picks, both were slow developing but Pitlick specifically has posted a true NHL career. Brad Hunt was a college free-agent signing that worked out well.
- 2014-15 (2): Leon Draisaitl (545); Laurent Brossoit (106). Brossoit was a trade acquisition whose pro career development was somewhat similar to what we’ve seen from Stuart Skinner five years later.
- 2015-16 (5): Connor McDavid (473); Darnell Nurse (466); Jordan Oesterle (290), Jujhar Khaira (285), Anders Nilsson (161). Jordan Oesterle was a college free-agent signing ala Brad Hunt, Anders Nilsson was a trade acquisition (similar to the Brossoit trade) and Jujhar Khaira arrived from the third round.
- 2016-17 (3): Matt Benning (356); Drake Caggiula (278); Jesse Puljujarvi (247). Benning was a sixth-round pick who (like Schultz) chose to sign in Edmonton. Caggiula was an undrafted but highly sought after forward, Edmonton getting him via what can be called the McDavid factor.
- 2017-18 (1): Kailer Yamamoto (171).
- 2018-19 (0):
- 2019-20 (2): Ethan Bear (183); Caleb Jones (135). Jones was a fourth-round pick and Bear arrived in the fifth round, that’s one of the most impressive things about the Oilers drafting over the past 30 years.
- 2020-21 (1): Evan Bouchard (87).
- 2021-22 (4): Ryan McLeod (66); Philip Broberg (22); Markus Niemelainen (20); Stuart Skinner (14). McLeod, Niemelainen and Skinner are all picks from outside the first round and all look legit. It’s been some time (2015-16) since the Oilers had more than three rookies who looked like they could hit the 200-game plateau.
The issue for Edmonton as I see it is twofold: The team wasn’t turning out many foundation pieces (defined as starting goalie, top four defense, top two lines, No. 3 center) and the team traded far too many young players miles too soon.
The only foundation players chosen outside the first round on this list are Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz and Ethan Bear. The reason NHL teams pursue the Oilers for these players is smart teams don’t trade defensemen after all the growing pains are done. It’s like enduring the next two seasons of Evan Bouchard’s learning curve and then dealing him for futures. Who does that? Edmonton Oilers.
Why do the Oilers do that? Admin change. Ken Holland’s first draft pick in Edmonton was Philip Broberg, so any player drafted previously is at least a little vulnerable to trade. When could that happen? It usually takes place when the next contract needs signing. So, that means Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod are all at least somewhat vulnerable. It’s nature’s way, been proven time and again. It’s the George Carlin ‘get your junk off the dresser so I can put my stuff on it’ routine.
This is where I write ‘be like Calgary’ plea to the Edmonton Oilers. At the same draft Bob Green grabbed Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and John Marino, the Flames plucked Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington. Both men are contributing to wins in Calgary at a combined cap hit of just over $5 million. Be like Calgary, Edmonton.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s a busy morning on the Lowdown, we start at 10, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will pop in and preview tonight’s game, plus look at the Oilers playoff chances. We’ll have the final edition of “Crossfire!” at 10:40, with Joe Osborne from Oddshark helping handicap the final four, the Raptors and some NHL races. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
That was painful on the ears! I think I could do a better job on the anthems🤣
All the crap that happened in that game was worth it to see that filthy move McDavid made on Quick. Being an Oilers fan is never dull … that’s why I could never quit on this team.
That’s what I say to lady liquor every time I get sauced: “I can’t quit you!”
Do people really think the reffing will be different in the playoffs?
Tonight was a preview.
An appetizer.
Tough. Physical. No space.
One on one battles.
Some players disappeared tonight.
Woodcroft should take a 5000 dollar fine yelling at the referees and donate an equal amount to the Teach Anze Kopitar How To Skate Again fund. Maybe Pelletier can help him?
Bring back Sleppy stick him on Leon’s line and let’s win board battles against L.A, Flames and Blues.
Alas, Sleppy just signed an extension in the KHL. That bird has flown.
My issue with the uncalled penalties isn’t the lack of powerplays, that’s just a byproduct of it. The issue is the uncalled infractions hurt 5 on 5 offensive chances and when they are uncalled the offending team gets rewarded for breaking the rules.
I’m convinced the refs gamble on games. Too easy to change the outcome with a few penalties and faceoff tosses.
That would be epic.
For all the wrong reasons.
Mikko was very good this game. No chance on that deflected first goal, good play by Byfield on the second, and the third was pinball. Kings had something like the first 10 shots in the third, he kept them in it.
Really? The second and third goal should have been stopped. But yes, he kept them in the game in the third period. Calling him very good is a stretch IMO.
L.A was told by their Coach Todd to volume shoot from anywhere doesn’t matter what angle are how far just shoot.
The referring standard and consistency was a topic a the GMs meetings this week at which Holland was an active participant.
Perhaps, leading up to a Kings/Oilers series, Holland sends in some tape of this game and ask some questions and have a discussion re: expectations in the series.
Yet it works for the Sutters of the world.
Absolutely. Iafallo was also draped all over 97 in the final 10 seconds. Completely ridiculous. We can laugh it off now, if the Kings get away with that in the playoffs with a full roster, they stand a good chance of winning.
Jesse Puljujarvi, after Iafallo put the puck in his own net, bumped into him and patted him on the numbers 🙂
Jesse will do at minimum one thing per game that cracks me up. He’s a comedian!
GF% now over 60, also a stone cold killer, mucho respect for his game.
Catching flak for my Archibald take, but his Fenwick is 25, his goal share is 25%, his xGF is under 25, he’s played 6 games and 40 something minutes.
Get this guy out of the lineup, or at the very least ban him from the top 9.
He’s only played a few games this year. Everyone else is in playoff shape. Give the guy a few games. Oilers are stuck with him this year and are choosing to play him, wish it was 6 minutes in the bottom 9.
How can you not love Archie?
Truth be told, Archibald has not played well in any of his games this season.
He was 43% GF% last season, too, and below 50% on every shot and chance metric on NST. Pretty obvious that he doesn’t help the team win, even though he throws thundering hits.
He’s a fine penalty killer.
He’s replacement level at 5×5 in the past and he appears to be falling off a cliff.
This might be the end of the road for this player, getting sick over the summer certainly didn’t help him.
100%. Oilers cannot be wasting minutes trying to get a marginal 4th liner (generous description) up to speed. Benson, Sceviour, Shore, Holloway, Malone, Marody, and Griffith are all better options at this point.
Happy for the two points but not sure I can say I really enjoyed watching that game.
It doesn’t really matter since they’re essentially tied, but the Oilers pass the Kings on points% with the win tonight (both 13 games over fake .500, but with the Oilers playing one fewer game so slightly higher %).
They also moved ahead of Dallas marginally for 6th in the conference. (+12 wins in 3 fewer games).
No masterpiece tonight (well, the shootout….), but the Oilers remain in a good spot as long as they can keep winning games a bit more than half the time.
Regarding the reffing, I suggest all you folks that are frothing at the mouth get some blood pressure medicine before the playoffs start.
Easy to say if you are Calgary or LA. The lack of reffing puts the Oiler skill at a huge disadvantage. We put 20M into two skill players and need them to play hockey.
Even though you point is about “what is” doesn’t mean we cant look for change to “how it should be” right?
Along this line, maybe we should go find Niemo and see if he can get some more play time before playoffs arrive. How does that affect our call ups?
20m in 2 skill players; plus 2 untrustworthy goalies to help them on their way.
A good team wins playing four different styles it’s called balance. Even the best team ever the Eighties Oilers could win in a back alley which was very satisfying.
This is true. Get used to it now, because the obstruction will not be called in the playoffs. Have to find ways to battle thru it (and tonight they did). Good sign.
we won …. But why am I SO angry. The reffing tonight just sent me over the edge. Every game. NOTHING CHANGES. It’s awful. LT, maybe you can shed some light on how you don’t let this affect you the way it does so many of us,
Can’t beat ‘em, join em. Oilers have the ability to adapt to a manner of play the refs are allowing.
McDavid and Draisaitl have started to give it back a bit and have made adjustments as the latter half of the year has gone on. McDavid has added the ability to swat guys away with one hand and control the puck with the other. Draisaitl is taking the puck to the net hard instead of button hooking, looking to initiate contact and then plough right through defenders.
Unfortunately in Gary Bettman’s NHL … this is the way.
Brassard got two shifts after the tieing goal.
I’d like to see Shore draw back in.
LT, you chose the right picture for this post. McDavid in the shootout … sublime. Almost as if he weren’t even trying that hard. What a joy to watch.
On the disallowed goal: 97 is grabbed by Kopitar, then grabbed by Iafallo, and Jesse’s foot is 6 inches in the paint so the goal is no good. Come on!
Loved how Koskinen kicked that puck away after the save!!! lol We deserved better. I hate refs.
Sadly, this is the kinda crap we’re gonna have to fight through to just make the playoffs. Refs hate us. League seems to hate us.
Screw em. I wanna shove it down their collective throats!!!
It will be the same in the playoffs, Oilers gotta just persist – thought they did that well in the last 5 min and OT.
Woodcroft made this game closer than it needed to be by dressing Archibald.
Now let’s never see him again. Archi, I mean.
Really? You should comment tomorrow, I’m curious to see what you seen. Also Brassard, he wasn’t on long enough to break a sweat.
Koski well-deserved second star
The first 11 shots of the third, there was only 1 that was any risk no? Then the
lost bumbling puck Barrie saved.
I guess give him some credit but its always the same story. And I like him in net over Smith. Bah
That was close they never really showed a good replay on Barrie somehow saving it from crossing the line.
The good guys win!!! Would have been nice in regulation but whatever it takes to make LT’s monthly prediction an undershoot!
Big two point to stay ahead of the Knights.
That reffing was a disgrace.
I have zero respect for any Selke that Kopitar has ever won, he was grabbing like it was 1995 all game.
He’s old and slowing down, it’s all he has left.
So blatant when they finally call him then nullify the penalty 20 sec later with a phantom call!
That was awesome. Great game.
dick
Old time Hockey Eddie Shore.
And Mikko tells Hunter to STFU!
That’s what he shouted when he kicked that puck!
Love Mikko’s reaction after including the puck kick (attempted).
If he stepped on that puck, fell down and injured his shoulder he’d be an oiler for life.
They could make an award for it, and name it after Ladislav Smid.
Grant Fuhr, Mike Grier…
Sean Brown
2 points – IN THE BANK.
Vegas just scored to go up 2-0 (not 2 seconds after I clicked it in).
Big 2 points.
This LA team has recently shutout the Avs 3-0 and beat Florida (and Nashville) – they are depleted but its a tough league.
if The reffing was the same in those games, absolutely they can beat the AV’s 3-0 and beat Florida
2 superstar SO goals!
Koskinen as big as he had to be!!
Big 2 points!!
That was disgusting
OMG that was dripping, McD!
Cheating never pays
It did though. The Bettman point.
McLulz
This isn’t going to be a popular take, but that overtime was hockey at its worst. A sport that doesn’t follow its own rules isn’t a sport, it’s scripted entertainment. Referees blatantly ignoring penalties turns the sport into an absolute farce, and is a big reason why hockey is one of the least accessible sports for new fans to get into.
Your take is correct.
It is a new low when teams can clutch and grab 3 on 3!
Right team won, one point closer, still a game in hand.
Sadly so.
There’s always Cricket for you.
And there’s always WWE for you, or the ECHL.
I like Playoff Hockey you seem to like emotionless all-star game brand of Hockey with no contact. To each is their own.
Like so many other things, you are also wrong about what type of hockey I like.
You can go to any Hockey teams fan blog and they all have one thing in common, I’ll give you a free guess. They all bitch and complain about the Reffing. I thought it was entertaining game by 2 teams deadlocked in the standings. Oilers need these kinds of games because come playoff time they’re not getting 6 PP a game.
If you like the hooking, grabbing, holding and interference style of hockey so much how is it that you are an Oilers fan? This isn’t their style of play, nor has it ever been.
Are you serious you must be a newer fan the Eighties oilers were just as dirty or worse then the rest of the league. Goggle Mark Messier 10 famous Elbows to the opposition face. How about Semenko head butting the goof Tim Hunter. How about Mcsorely sending Mike Bullard out on a stretcher after nut jobbing him. The Nineties Oilers were a Blue Collar lunch pale gang. Why do you think Tampa signed Maroon they don’t give a shit what he does in the regular season as long as he’s there when called upon to do his job in the real season.
How do you turn “doesn’t follow its own rules” into
“emotionless… with no contact”?? You’re simply fabricating to fit your narrative.
Oilers won a tough battle against a gutsy L.A team tonight. Do I wish we had more PP, yes I do. At least the Reffing was consistent they didn’t call any tick tack penalties and the players knew what they could get away with. I thought it was a entertaining game for a regular season game.
You keep my nation’s sport out of your damn mouth! Also, I don’t get the reference. Are you saying Cricket is incredibly adherent to rules (its not) or that it is soft (while I can see why you might think that, I urge you google “bouncers”. It most certainly isn’t soft)
Captain my captain
a little “How she goin” from Drai
Nice Leon!
McD with the nasty move!
Atta boy Koski… way to battle back.
Quick still looking for his jock!
Quick’s been good and lucky. Make him move lots in the SO!
Gutless LA. Can’t even make it look like they’re playing for the win.
Mutant league hockey out there
A stupid, fake hockey game and you’ve got Jack Bonehead yelling and screaming into the mic about how good it is.
What a joke. That was crap. One much more skilled team being held, hooked, grabbed by a weak one.
Was Jack supposed to tell the national audience how crappy the product they are watching is?
3rd was a bit disappointing, but that was a heck of an OT.
why not do two periods of OT. Not enough time.
This is when I really wish someone would fire the puck at the ref’s head.
WWE 3 on 3
woh this is an all time stinker by the refs.
And of course, never any transparency on how severely poorly called games are handled afterward.
Nurse needs to stop sliding…
Shutting it down. I just don’t fucking care. Between the refs and the Oilers playing like shit it’s not worth my energy anymore. We already lost by giving the AHL Kings a point.
McLeod should be second unit in OT. Has the speed.
His stride is so sexy. Reminds me of Neidermayer.
wow underwhelming OT first shift
C’mon Leon … now would be a great time for 50.
NHL needs to really look into infractions being called. ist punishing the skill teams and making $hitty teams look better