The Edmonton Oilers had a tough road period yesterday in Columbus. It was the third period, and the team wasn’t sharp against a team of Blue Jackets that remains determined to salvage what they can from another lost season. Have to say, they were impressive.
For Edmonton, not much to be learned beyond confirmation that Darnell Nurse and Jesse Puljujarvi are badly missed. We can acknowledge the value of a disciplined line change (it was a ridiculous penalty, but giving the stripes an excuse to call it can be ironed out of the song list) and that luck swings both ways. We’re on to Jean Pronovost country.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 5 reasons Zach Hyman was a quality free-agent signing for Oilers
- New DNB: Oilers’ need for a healthy Darnell Nurse becomes apparent in first game of absence
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers top prospects’ first and second half splits in AHL
- DNB: Evander Kane’s banner Oilers performance was fitting. And there could be more
- Lowetide: Should Oilers re-sign Brett Kulak based on early results?
- DNB: How Oilers’ Matvey Petrov mastered English and became a promising NHL prospect
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outscoring reaches peak with Jay Woodcroft as Oilers coach
- Lowetide: Is Ken Holland’s unusual approach to team building close to success for Oilers?
- Lowetide: Recent rash of injuries to Oilers prospects a familiar story
- Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s comparables are encouraging for young Oilers centre
- DNB & Lowetide: Why the Jesse Puljujarvi criticism in Edmonton misses the mark
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s deployment is working, despite play in Wild loss
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s scoring prowess and what he brings the Oilers
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s Hart case
- DNB: Dylan Holloway call-up? Jay Woodcroft extension? Zack Kassian trade? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
- Lowetide: Making the final call on the Oilers 2017 draft
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers free-agent targets for 2022 offseason
- DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
- Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
- DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL
- At home to: STL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: VEG, DAL, COL (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: CBJ, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, VAN (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual April results: 8-2-1, 17 points in 11 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 46-27-6, 98 points in 79 games
The Oilers are in the playoffs, and it’s extremely likely the Los Angeles Kings will be the opponent in round one. I like Edmonton’s chances, but Darnell Nurse needs to be in the lineup. Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s piece on the Oilers in Columbus strikes the balance between concern and optimism (line above) for an organization with a real chance to make progress in this year’s playoffs.
GOALTENDER
Mikko Koskinen stopped 26 of 30, .867. I saw the Eric Robinson goal as being more about Tyson Barrie not being able to separate player from puck (one whack, then chaos). The Oliver Bjorkstrand goal I saw as a combination of Zack Kassian not engaging his mark (he was the only Oiler in the area) and Koskinen committing all of his chips on whacking the puck to safety. The Nick Blankenburg goal (I believe) hit Derek Ryan and changed directions. Jack Roslovic a well executed two-on-one. Maybe Koskinen could have gotten the Blankenburg shot, but this game isn’t on the goalie.
DEFENSE
Brett Kulak had three shots and five attempts, Tyson Barrie had an assist, six shots, a takeaway and a blocked shot. His decision to hammer the puck off Eric Robinson was a choice, but it might he been an idea to engage the forward as well. Pairing is 12-5 goals in 177 minutes. Solid.
Duncan Keith had two blocked shots, I think his skating and passing are better now than at the beginning of the year. Probably settled in now. Evan Bouchard had three shots, giveaway, takeaway, blocked shot. This pairing is 23-14 in 388 minutes. The only pairing that didn’t surrender a goal.
Kris Russell had a shot, two blocked shots, one HDSC (!!!!). Congratulations to Russell, Edmonton’s nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy. Cody Ceci had two shots, two blocked shots. Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci are 21-18 together in 422 minutes. If Nurse is absent for a prolonged period of time, I think we could see Kulak-Ceci as a pairing.
FORWARDS
Evander Kane scored again, early, and had seven shots on goal. Four of the seven shots were HDSC. The ‘too many men’ penalty was a result of Kane engaging a Blue Jacket momentarily on the way to the bench. Lame by the officials in my opinion. Connor McDavid had two assists, and is now at 43-75-118 in 78 games. He is a monumental force in all timelines. Kailer Yamamoto had three shots, one HDSC, two other attempts, and I’m not sure why they moved him off this line for Zack Kassian. Kassian had two hits, drew a penalty, took a penalty, and then a misconduct and may get a call from the league.
Warren Foegele had one shot, a blocked shot, and has had more touches in recent weeks. Ryan McLeod had one HDSC and was effective in his time with Draisaitl. Derek Ryan had one takeaway, he lost some battles along the wall. Derick Brassard took a penalty, caused an offside. He’s trying, but his skills have eroded. Devin Shore played almost 10 minutes and had some battles along the wall along with some cycling during the game.
Zach Hyman had two shots, two HDSC, drew a penalty. I like his game very much. Leon Draisaitl scored a goal from his office, now at 55-53-108 in 78 games. The Big Train has 179 goals in the last four seasons. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had some good moments, but his passes, while solid, did not result in goals. Took a penalty that wasn’t a penalty, or at least should have been a Yamamoto penalty.
DARNELL NURSE
Darnell Nurse is Edmonton’s best defenseman, has been for some time. It isn’t his fault Oscar Klefbom’s career ended (or appears to have ended), it isn’t his fault every coach who evaluates the Oilers defense then proceeds to run him heavy minutes dusk to dawn. Not his fault, but it is his problem.
Nurse is a misunderstood player, I think. There’s a shutdown expectation of him, but Nurse isn’t especially strong in the slot area defensively. He can move bodies, and does send the puck from danger, but the big man isn’t quicker than those blasted small skill forwards and the GA from danger zones do exist when he’s on the ice.
Nurse isn’t an offensive defenseman either, he can post numbers but over the years his even-strength totals tend to be the most impressive offensive stat for Nurse. Did you know that he ranks No. 7 in even-strength points among NHL defensemen since 2018-19?
Nurse is a two-way defenseman, he has value and helps his team win. He isn’t Bobby Orr, nor Nick Lidstrom, nor Paul Coffey, but he does eat enormous minutes on a team that needs exactly that from its No. 1 defender.
If I had to pick someone from sports history who was similar, it would be old Dodgers RH pitcher Don Sutton. He arrived in 1966 and pitched 225 innings, and proceeded to exceed 200 innings every year through 1986. The exception was the shortened year (1981) and even then he was on track for 200 innings. Sandy Koufax was the best pitcher on the Dodgers when Sutton was a rookie, but by 1972 it was Sutton who led the staff. He won 20 games just one time, but landed with 324 overall and landed in the Hall in 1998, one decade after his final pitch.
I don’t know why people don’t like Nurse, and am no longer interested. The reasons given don’t ring true to me (he’s never been overpaid in his career, but people scream about his cap hit) and he bargained all of his contracts in good faith. The great philosopher Taylor Swift once sang “haters gonna hate hate hate hate hate” and I’m done with the whole damn bunch. Darnell Nurse is Edmonton’s best defenseman, they needed him yesterday and they’ll need him tomorrow. His return to health is important to Edmonton’s playoff hopes. If you can’t see that, your focus is on things other than winning hockey games.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have much to discuss. Oilers so close to clinching second place, VGK in absolute trouble, Jays, Raps, Oil Kings, NFL draft and more. Jason Gregor will be a guest, we plan on having a Raptors guest, too! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Summarizing!
Petrov had a quiet night on the scoresheet even with 5 SOG, and has just an assist so far in the playoffs. North Bay won in OT to go up 3-0 in the series.
Youngstown lost Game 1, and Lachance too was held pointless.
Big win tonight for Raptors to force game 6! Bichette hits his first career grand slam to lead the Jays past the Sox!
Josh Lewenberg
@JLew1050
This just got real interesting…
In the history of the NBA, 146 teams have lost the first 3 games of a best-of-7 playoff series. The Raptors become the 14th to force a Game 6. Only 3 teams have forced Game 7 & none have come back to win the series.
Game 6 in Toronto, 7pm Thurs
All great points. I think Holland (and Chiarelli) did themselves a terrible service by not going long-term much earlier.
It’s too bad they lost Klefbom, because if he WAS healthy, the thought of losing Nurse to free agency would have been less difficult to endure.
Pietrangelo gets mostly 2nd PP with Vegas. Shea Theodore gets the bulk of PP1. And Alex’ 10.5% of the cap $8.8 million contract started when he was 30.
You never get into cap trouble by paying your best players top money. You can hope that they take team-friendly deals, which some have, but you also can’t be upset that Nurse got market value for his contract after multiple show-me deals.
The point is, everyone here agrees Nurse is a good defenseman. How good is up for debate, and the numbers have been ran-through a thousand times.
What is true, is that I think most would agree (maybe not all) that he would be value at $8million. So we pay the little extra to be competitive. I will not be upset if Nurse “only” performs like an $8M defenseman throughout this contract. If he is overpaid by $1.5M than he is not the player you cut out to recoup those losses.
You trade Zack Kassian for a pick and run Devon Shore in his place to save $1.5M. Or you run Skinner as the backup next year instead of Koskinen. Or play Holloway in the lineup instead of signing a new free agent.
It might hurt a bit, just as every bit of wasted value in the cap era, but the point is there are better places to fight and scratch $1.5M out of your lineup value wise, rather than pinch it out of Nurse. What other $8M VALUE defenseman is AVAILABLE, and would sign here for $8M, rather than for $9.5M. or $10M. That’s not even to mention the intangibles like rewarding a loyal player to a long-term contract that they’ve earned. Or keeping your assistant captain, core member and good friend of your two superstars on the team. Nurse might not live up to his contract, but he’ll come close at least, and I don’t see how you replace him without overpaying whoever is coming along.
Your major premise is severely flawed.
Ask The Minnesota Wild.
Ask the Wild how that dead cap space is going to affect their roster going forward.
Exactly my point.
And what exactly is your point HH … other than providing vague non-sequiturs?
He is casting aspersions without factual evidence to back it up. He doesn’t want people to actually line up Nurse’s performance and contracts to Suter’s at the same age. He doesn’t have a leg to stand on!
Not sure what you’re going on about here.
Suter played in the NHL at a younger age and had superior results in every season at the same age despite playing in a less offensive era for a low scoring team.
What data are you looking at to come up with the wrong answers? Show your work to back up your assertions or buzz off!
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=72672
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=131921
This doesn’t cover all the facts you asserted. Ryan Suters first 3 seasons in the NHL – average scoring per team – 3.08, 2,95, 2.78. For Nurse – 2.71, 2.77 and 2.97. Nurse and Suter played their first full season in the NHL at the age of 20 (and Nurse played 2 games at 18). For their first 6 season in the NHL (after which Nurse inked his deal – Sutter’s was one season later, but went into effect immediately), Suter was at .41 p/g and Nurse is at .39 a very slight advantage for Suter, despite getting a lot more PP time. But in Nurse’s 5th and 6th season though, he scored more points per game than Suter did in his 5th and 6th seasons. And the lesser games in each season for Nurse were due to the pandemic, not injury.
Suter signed a 13 year deal for 12.56% of the cap, vs Nurse signing an 8 year deal for 11.35% of the cap. So in effect, Nurse’s contract is almost 10% cheaper than Suter’s. As OP points out, Nurse’s new contract will expire a year sooner than when Suter’s contract was bought out.
One other fact that would indicate their relative similar status at the time of their new contract signings. In his signing year, Nurse got 7th place in Norris votes. In his signing season, Suter got 8th place in Norris votes.
I could be wrong but didn’t suter play mostly with Weber? Imagine a top pairing of Nurse and Weber instead of Nurse and Barrie, or Ceci, or Russel, or Fayne.
You may also want to note that Suter and Nurse have very similar counting stats this season despite Suter being 10 years older…at a cap hit below $4million.
Suter was bought out with 4 years left on a 12 year contract at age 35….. not sure how this is equatable to a Nurse contract that expires at age 34….?
Wild dead cap >>> Oilers dead cap. Next year Oilers have $4.2M dead cap; Wild have $12.7M dead cap. After that, Oilers drop to $1.9M for two years and the Wild increase to $14.7M for two years. That is a staggering difference.
I’m not talking about next year or the year after that.
Suter appears to have peaked when he was 31 which is in line with aging curves..
Guerin obviously recognized that and bought him out despite the pain rather than endure the final years of a declining player.
Given that Suter was superior to Nurse early in his career, it’s very likely that Nurse will offer less in in the final years of his contract than Suter did and at a higher cap hit.
Try and think 4-8 years out.
31saves premise may not apply to 12-year contracts……
But according to someone they can easily just trade that cap hit
One clarification – you trade Kassian FOR a pick (the pick you obtain by trading Barrie)…. right?
I would also say that Holloway replaces Kassian in the lineup and Skinner is undoubtably the 1B to start next season – he has LEGIT 1A potential for next season as well. He has been MUCH better to this point that Husso was last year at this point, for example (and younger).
What is the clause on the Keith trade again, in regards to a 2nd or 3rd round pick? Was it the Oilers making the conference finals AND Keith being top 4 in ice time?
Nurse missing any games in the playoffs will make that a lock.
I was hoping that if the Oil were leading most of the time in the playoffs we would see more Kulak/Russell protecting the lead along with Nurse/Ceci, thus maybe pushing Keith’s TOI to #5…
Nurse missing any games in the playoffs likely means we will not be making the conference finals 🙁
Oilers have to make the cup final with Keith having top 4 minutes in the first 3 rounds for Chicago to upgrade to the 2nd.
If we have another injury or two on Defence do we even have a able body players in Bakersfield. Why hasn’t any D been called up once we clinch what’s the purpose of dressing Keith or Ceci
Broberg – played for the first time this weekend after missing a month plus – his minutes were WAY down so they are easing him in.
Samorukov – out for the season.
Niemelainen – hasn’t played in weeks with injury
Koekkoek – gone for months now on personal leave.
Kemp – injured (not a real option anyways).
Unless they sign Deharnais to an NHL deal, the only options are Berglund and Kesslering and, while Kesslering is playing his best pro hockey right now, he’s not close.
They have six healthy d-men for tomorrow.
No sense in having someone travel across the country to sit in the press box.
They may call someone up for Thursday but its too soon for Broberg and that player won’t play – will be emergency.
Also, cap could be an issue – when Archie is activated from the suspended list for the next home game, they have apx $1MM of cap space.
and the purpose of playing Keith and Ceci is because they are on the Edmonton Oilers, important part of the Edmonton Oilers, and the Edmonton Oilers are playing hockey games.
They can’t get injured if they don’t play.
Should they sit the entire roster and forefit the games or just Keith and Ceci?
If the game means nothing you rest players that are banged up are older veterans like Keith. I’ll fill you in if your a newer fan but this of kind of thinking by Coaching staffs has been around since the game went to enlarged rosters.
Its really tough to reconcile that way of thinking with previous posts re: Woody will, and should, run Smith out game after game down the stretch.
I didn’t know Ceci was and older veteran, or banged up (any more than any other player)……
Stauffer briefly mentioned today on his show that Broberg may play against SJ/Van to end the season. Not sure if he had inside info or just spit balling
Thanks – I didn’t hear that.
Stauff did have Woody on the show for 15 minutes today.
Desharnais is on an NHL deal.
No sir, Deharnais is on an AHL deal right now – his NHL deal is for 2022/23.
Right you are, OP.
Prospectoforte!
Petrov’s Battalion can take a 3-0 stranglehold with a win as the series moves to Ottawa.
Down south, the USHL playoffs begin, featuring Lachance’s Youngstown squad hosting Madison. All three games (if necessary) are in Youngstown on three straight nights. If the series goes the distance, Y’town will have played five games in six nights. No wonder several of them got Saturday’s regular-season finale off.
North Bay (Petrov) @ 5 p.m.
Youngstown (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
All times, as always, are Falher time.
Falher time comes for us all at some point.
Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March for 2022…
1 – Predict how many playoff wins Oilers get
2 – Predict how many goals McDavid gets
3 – Predict how many goals Draisaitl gets
eg: Wins 11; McD 7; Leon 9
Its easy!
note: Make sure to keep the McDavid/Draisaitl(tie break) predictions separate
Canada’s Best Bet:
https://theathletic.com/3271145/2022/04/25/lebrun-canada-stanley-cup/?source=emp_shared_article
So go bet on them then.
Please!!
Not encouraged by this – per Gregor:
Update on Nurse…
Won’t play this week.
Today, the Oilers are hoping he can play game one, but that isn’t a guarantee. By Friday they will have better sense if he can play game one. If not, filling his skates will be a huge challenge.
I don’t think people do not like Nurse, they just cannot get past the 9+ mill per year salary that is about to kick in.
This is going to put him in the ‘Horcoff’ salary range and many OIler fans will stop looking at him as a valuable player and start looking at him as an overpaid good hockey player.
Personally, When Jones got his payday, I believe his friendship with McDavid was leveraged here and the Oilers had to pay him. Trading him was not an option. So now he has to perform as a franchise D-men or take the heat. As it stands now, he is our #1 D-man, but that might not always be the case during his contract. The contract might not age well.
No way do the fans turn on Nurse anywhere like Horcoff. For one thing Nurse is a superior hockey player.
Horcoff was an incompetent Lowe+MacT’s teacher’s pet. Horcoff was the blind date with great personality.
Seems a little harsh. Horcoff was a defensively responsible centre who could be expected to push for 20G and 30A while providing leadership on a low skill team
Horcoff at half the price and no one would complain. The fact he got hyped as a “number one centre” simply because they overpaid him made me want to puke.
Fact is, it wasn’t Horcoff’s fault that Oilers toxic management overpaid him; while constantly screwing everything up that there was to screw up lol
I think this post got written because I’m disliking reading about Nurse in such a way throughout the thread today.
Fact is, for the first time since the 1900’s Oilers have a bona fide top ten NHL team to ice.
That said, Mike Smith is a ticking injury bomb and Leako Kostagoal provides his own kind of terror.
Personally, I blame Playfair for the regression in our D-corps earlier this year. Under Manson, they’ve all played steadier, Nurse included.
They’ve had more help via the forwards with back pressure and playing 3F high in the offensive zone, etc.
Horcoff had scored at point-per-game pace, during the dead puck era, in two of the three seasons leading up to his contract. He was also a good defensive player, the centre on an PvP outscoring line. And he was a heart-and-soul guy who would put his face in front of a Nick Lidstrom slap shot to close out a playoff win against the strongest Red Wings team in 20 years. And he was an absolute fitness freak, so it was reasonable to think that he might be able to keep up his production longer than most.
Horcoff got injured in the All-Star game and was never the same again. That’s wasn’t the GM’s fault.
2016 – Letang 71gp 15g 51a 67p
Trevor Daley 53 6 16 22
Olli Maatta 67 6 13 19
Brian Dumoulin 79 0 16 16
Ian Cole 70 0 12 12
Ben Lovejoy 66 4 6 10
Jultz 18 1 7 8
Derrick Pouliot 22 0 7 7
Rob Scuderi 25 0 4 4
David Warsofsky 12 1 0 1
Adam Clendening 9 0 1 1
Letang was also the only defender over 8pts(15 in playoffs) to match his 45pt difference to the next defender.
I now feel stronger about Nurse and this D corps more then ever.
Letang was a #1.
Of note, Holland wasn’t with the team in Columbus as he’s with the Condors as they wrap up the season (per a Terry Jones article as he had some one-on-one quotes from Holland).
I don’t think it really “means anything” as we know he is always watching hockey, every night, and is often with the AHL club.
You’d have to imagine he wants a first hand look at his D options we’re hoping he doesn’t need
I presume its a scheduled trip with the Oilers out east – he does got down there quite a bit it seems.
No doubt he’s looking at the play of the potential call-up, among other things.
Isn’t Darnell Nurse top 10 in 5 on 5 scoring over the last 3-4 years? I know there are lots of McDavid minutes in there but he is full value for 5 on 5 production (and lets not discount his ability to move the puck up the ice in that regard).
Hasn’t Darnell Nurse played huge minutes (25-30 under Tippett in any given regulation game) against tough comp, year after year after year, with no true 1st pairing d-man has his partner. For half this season, is it not close to 50% of TOI vs. elites, with fabulous results?
Until this year, has Darnell Nurse not been extremely durable, not missing a game (except suspension) since his rookie year?
Has Darnell Nurse not played in every important defensive situation (and many offensive situations) for years and been the backbone of the “truculence” of the d-core (Adam Larsson notwithstanding)?
While I guess its not a “fact” because its subjective, but its almost inarguable that Darnell Nurse has provided play in excess of his cap hit every single season – 3 entry levels seasons where he outplayed that contract, 2 seasons on the first bridge where he outplayed $3.2MM and now 2 seasons on the second bridge where he’s outplayed $5.6MM.
Detractors have always worried about “the next contract” and criticized Nurse for the contract he will receive when he’s been on a value contract for 7 seasons now.
Sure, finally, in 2022/23, he may no longer be providing value in excess of his contract but he’ll still be a legit top pairing d-man for at least a few years and a MASSIVE important player to team success.
Imo in 12-24months Nurse’s contract will look like Draisaitl’s about 12-24 months after he signed his.
Nurse is a #1, he’ll continue to be a #1 for a long time and as Bouchard develops the day is nearing where he may also finally have a true top pairing partner.
Ceci has been phenomenal, playing well above expectations(although penguin fans were singing his praise) he’s playing above his head on the 1st pair.. but with Nurse it works, just like every other fella he’s been slotted beside.
If Bouchard can make another development jump into next season like this one the heat from the mouth breathers will cool off regarding Nurse’s money.
Nurse may not be Pronger, or Lidström, or Hedman but he’s got to be something special if those are the names the mouth breathers need to use to defend their position on what type of defender Nurse is.
Excellent review.
No love for Jultz (in ’17) or the great Steve Montador?
Also, the Oilers do have a 3 time member of that list!
On the forward group as a whole, last night was one of the few times that I think Woody made major deployment mistakes which cost the team (or may have cost the team).
I thought that Ryan McLeod was one of the top forwards through two period. I didn’t check the numbers after the 2nd period but, after the first, he was 8-0 Coris and 6-0 shots (and I saw him good in the 2nd to parlay on that).
For some reason, Woody seemed determined to get Kass multiple shifts in the top 6 and McLeod was moved out of the top 6 for the 3rd period.
This isn’t a slight on Kass’ play last night, of which I make no comment, but (a) McLeod was rolling on the Drai line and moving him down was a decision I didn’t like and (b) the top line (with Kane and Yamamoto) was fire in the first period and I”m not sure why Kass needed to take shifts from Kailer.
I’ve never, ever been a Kassian fan, but I wonder if this was Woodcroft trying to get him going. Having an in-form Kassian in the playoffs would be helpful. I would also like a pony.
Of course it was we’re going to need peak Kassian to do some heavy lifting if we go on a run this Playoff.
Kassian doing any “heavy lifting” would be a welcome bonus, but the Oilers depend on Kassian for success as much as any team depends on a 4th line winger for success. Very little.
All it takes is one massive hit to the right player at the right time this can change a series on a dime.
If Kassian really does up his performance in the playoffs, I will be irritated that he was not giving his all during the regular season.
And you are too old for a pony. Maybe a nag….
Perhaps but, if so, I’m not sure I agree with that either.
For one, coaches have, seemingly, been trying to get Kass going for the better part of three seasons now.
Also, more importantly, I do think that Kass has been playing some of his better hockey over the last few weeks – when he’s been deployed as the 11th/12th forward (which, in Woody’s defence, that deployment has included spotting him in the top 6 but not quite at the level of last night).
Game after game after game, we are seeing that the Keith/Bouchard pair is real and substantial as a 2nd pairing. They are killing it.
Both can have some wobble without the puck in the defensive zone but they are settling in and becoming a dynamite 2nd pair.
Now, the key is Darnell Nurse which makes a legit top pairing (with Ceci) to play the real toughs.
Without Nurse, Keith/Bouch probably get asked to do a bit too much against playoff teams.
Fingers’ crossed on Nurse playing in early May.
Which poses the question – what does a quality second paid generally cost, and is this pairing in that salary range?
Ask the Winnipeg Jets. IIRC, they got Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon for about $10M in cap space, plus two second-round picks and a third-round pick. I thought it was an absolute steal for a second D pairing, although I guess I don’t watch Jets games to confirm.
Or, if you prefer, you can, y’know, trade Taylor Hall for half of a second D-pairing.
Keith-Bouchard are only about 70% of that hit. But the three picks might make for better value depending on how they are used
I watched the replay a few times and McDavid, the center, was right there – a step behind Bjorkstrand.
As Godot mentioned last night, perhaps Kass should have impeded his path to the goal post but, at the same time, at some point that attacker becomes the responsibility of the d-man and center as he gets further down low.
I have no doubt that Friday night, McDavid makes that play – he’ll also make that play consistently in May (and June….).
This isn’t really true. You’re thinking the old style of the winger staying with the point man. Teams now swarm (scary word I know) to the front of the net on any puck below the goal line. Add to that, Bjorkstrand came from Zach’s side and Connor was coming from the other. Sure he ended up a stride away but Zach let him walk right by him into the home plate area.
As I mentioned during the game, this presumes you know what the team structure calls for Kassian to do in that situation.
There is a delta between “old school staying with the point man” and going down low, below the hashmarks, right to the goal line to cover an activating forward.
I don’t know what team structure says to do in this circumstance and I would suggest noone here does.
Traditionally, that would be “the center’s man” and McDavid was indeed right there and had the ability to inhibit the chance.
Most teams structure down low require that the defenders should outnumber the attackers. The attacking team is almost never attacking five, so their last man can be left uncovered.
The Oilers were 3 on 2 attackers. Kassian not marking Bjorkstrand made it 3-on-3. Kassian decided covering air was more important than covering Columbu’s best forward.
Replace “Kassian” with “McDavid” and this is just as accurate – probably even moreso give McDavid’s primary responsibility as a center.
McDavid was correctly supporting the D, in case on of the D men lost a board battle, and to be available for a breakout. It is not the centre’s responsibility to account for free flyers arriving late. It just isn’t.
I’ve said for a long time now, losing Nurse is just as impactful to the lineup as losing McDavid or Drai – potentially even more given the amount of minutes he plays, the “toughness” of those minutes and that, trying to fill those involved all the other d-men (or most of them) slotting up the lineup and decreasing their efficiency.
I presume he will be back for game 1 of the playoffs but may not be at 100% – of course, that’s pure speculation based on nothing but a feeling.
Nurse, like Leon and Connor, is extremely durable.
Usually plays 95% or more of every season.
Even when Klef was around, he sustained injuries consistently.
Point being: paying for a guy who has a sterling health record pays off over years of the contract.
Injuries, or lack of injuries, isn’t something yet factored into analysis, like Dom’s
Good point
I wonder if riding Nurse so hard may have contributed to him getting injured on a nothing play
Hw may be energetic and durable but the have used him to very unusual levels
They really need to cash some bat for some glove and give the D group better balance so he can play a more normal work load. It will add up on him if they don’t over the next years
He’s not the terminator
Perhaps but I would note that his overall minutes have been scaled back since the new coaching staff took over.
To build on LT’s comments, the other thing that is misunderstood about Dmen is that they stop developing. Once they are over 25, fans tend to assume what you see is what you get. Sometimes that is the case, but more often I notice Dmen still developing in their late 20s and early 30s or even mid 30s as age begins to betray their physical ability.
Defense is a hard position to learn. It takes thousands of sorties to learn some of the finer points for most and some of the best Dmen are not prime until they are in their early 30s.
Look at Kris Russell. He’s way better at Defense than when he first came here, and he wasn’t young when he arrived. Even in the past two years, he’s made remarkable progress helped out be his tremendous athleticism.
Nurse is not done getting better and he has shown steady progress since he was a rookie. The contract is going to be a bargain even without considering cap increase. Probably not next year, but in the first half of the term.
The other thing to consider is scarcity. The same thing for RNH. Guys like Nurse approaching their prime are not readily available by trade and almost never as free agents. The only way to get a 1D like this is to draft them, for the most part. Then it takes years to get to the level Nurse is at. That scarcity makes him worth a lot, probably more than the market tells us what he is worth.
This is what makes losing Larsson so egregious. Heaven and earth should have been moved to lock Larsson up. Hardball with no phone contact for months leading up to free agency was not the play. Maybe Holland thought he still had a week, but if he did, he didn’t understand the expansion draft rules very well. Physical shut down right shot Dman in his late 20s still getting better as he approaches his prime. Man could we use him now.
Great point.
You could make the same point about Cody Ceci, and to some extent Tyson Barrie. These guys are forever honing their craft defensively, but an age-28 defenseman is still a work in progress.
As a for-instance, Tampa Bay has used Shattenkirk, Bogosian, and Luke Schenn effectively in their cup runs. Guys who were maligned by too-high expectations earlier in their careers but who’ve grown their defensive acumen to be solid contributors on a top team.
It also suggests that patience is key for young defenders like Bouchard and Broberg, but that they are having early-career success bodes very very well.
I forgot to make the comparison to forwards. Forwards peak much earlier than D and G. By the time a forward is 25, most of the time we know what we are dealing with and we are probably looking at a ceiling. Good forwards maintain that ceiling for a number of years, but they don’t tend get much better save for the occasional outlier season or zooming by a linemate.
Dmen can keep getting better for many years after age 25.
Jason Smith is another famous Oilers example. He did not come to us as a young man (by hockey standards) and wasn’t considered a world beater when he arrived. But he got better and better as his Oilers career progressed and turned into a very valuable roster member for many years here. A diamond in the rough.
On average…this does not appear to be the case:
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
For those curious, here’s the age curve for total defenceman WAR (as well as offence and defence WAR) based on @TopDownHockey
‘s new updated dataset.
Nurse is not average. He is first and foremost an elite athlete that happens to be a hockey player. His family tree includes elite athletes playing basketball and football. Given the above you aging curve is at best questionable.
He is NOT Superman
And it’s not “my” ageing curve….it has been tracked for years by some of the best analytics minds in the game.
Ryan Suter at his peak was a much better defenseman than Nurse, was bought out and is now playing second pairing for $4 million per season.
A likely outcome.
I would break it down even further Wingers peak well before Centremen.
Man do they need to find a RS Gator for this team version. Two pairs that can share hard minutes, everyone stays more fresh, Keith and Bouch the O push, even out the TOI some
I would like to point out that Colorado acquired via trade Devon Toews for two 2nd round picks, heading into his prime. Girard was also acquired via trade.
That its difficult doesn’t mean its shouldn’t be done.
I like Nurse. He’s flawed but still a very good 2/3 defender, and an acceptable 1. He’s not, in my view, a $9M defender. I don’t prescribe to the view that’s exclusively on the GM who offered the deal. If you are a player and you sign a contract for $9M per, you are saying you are prepared to deliver $9M worth of value to the team. And if you don’t, you AND the GM should be prepared to answer for it.
In the meantime I don’t think there is any reasonable arguing Nurse provides fair value on his current contract, nor that he isn’t important to the Oilers success.
We got Steve Staios for cheap from Atlanta, and Steady Steve was a pretty good second-pairing guy for several years.
Just like McSorely I believe Staios was used as a winger at one time or another.
Nurse is a great dman who has never had a great RD with him. As with RNH we should value what we have. I have let my heart take control and have made a bet that my team wins the cup. GOG.
One thing I would like to point for Nurse is that the Oilers D corp has been below average since Nurse has joined the team. He hasn’t had much support back there. They have had some decent defensemen but not a single stud since he has been here.
With Bouchard looking great in what is essentially a rookie season, Broberg looking like he could be an impact defensemen (I’m high on him) and Ceci looking like a solid, calm, reliable top 4 D. It will take some of the responsibility off Nurse. I think this will have the biggest impact on Nurse’s game.
IS IT
MEAT! MEAT! MEAT!
Or
MEAT Meet MEAT
You should open a Pie Restraunt that serves Turkey for desert
Riffing on Maudite, HH and Knighttown to put all this info in one post about the teams in the chase.
Games over fake Bettman .500:
LAK +16 (2 GR)
NSH +15 (3 GR)
DAL +14 (3 GR)
VGK +11 (3 GR)
VAN +8 (3 GR)
Last 10 games:
LAK 6-4-0 (Won last four games)
NSH 4-4-2 (OTL at home to MIN)
DAL 4-4-2 (Won last game at home vs SEA)
VGK 5-3-2 (OTL shit-the-bed vs SJS at Home blowing a 2 goal lead with 2 min left)
VAN 6-2-2 (Lost last two games)
Games remaining vs Playoff Teams:
VAN 2
VGK 2
NSH 0
DAL 0
LAK 0
Home/Road splits remaining:
DAL 3 Home 0 Road
NSH 1 Home 2 Road
VAN 2 Home 1 Road
VGK 0 Home 3 Road
LAK 0 Home 2 Road
Relevant games today:
None
Finally took EDM off as they clinched. 2nd not locked down yet, but I can’t see them not getting one point out of their last 3 games.
The above statement probably puts whammy on EDM.
DAL’s remaining games:
At home: VGK, ARI, ANA
On road: none
The VGK and ARI are back to back
Its looks pretty much done but weirder things have happened, Tuesday game vs VGK is huge for both teams.
LAK’s remaining games:
At home: none
On road: SEA, VAN
The SEA and VAN games are back to back to end the season after a 3 day break.
One more point and they lock down 3rd in Pacific
VAN’s remaining games:
At home: SEA, LAK
On road: EDM
VAN is done. They need to win out and for DAL to lose all 3, and for VGK to beat DAL, but lose to CHI and STL. 1% type stuff.
VGK’s remaining games:
At home – none
On Road – DAL, CHI, STL.
The CHI games is 2nd of back to back, 3rd in 4 nights in 3 different cities. Not as easy as you assume just seeing “CHI”
According to Georgesx its not a huge deal, but I’ll still point it out as it has a marginal impact.
VGK needs to run perfect and then get one of ANA or ARI to beat DAL. Not impossible. Highly improbable.
I don’t think either of you had the correct dataset the other day. I went through the FLa games and you had missed another but he had one too many.
Thank you, Georges, that’s the only way I can check your work.
There were two possibilities for errors in the FLA dataset… the first was where a leading game of the 3 in 4 was postponed due to Covid, the next was a stretch of 3 in 4 that were all at home and I see you evaded both those traps (my worry was you had included one).
I think the first time through my eyes mught have missed the one that straddled Jan/Feb, not sure as it was a couple of days ago now, but your data looks good. Well done.
I had read that Robin Lehner was out for the season, but I see he was the back up last night. I guess it was only a flesh wound…
I know Dom’s player cards aren’t perfect but they are worth a discussion at least. Dom has Nurse’s value at $6.2m this season, so he is currently outearning his salary of $5.6m.
The problem with the extension is that it’s not just an overpayment of $1m to $1.5m, it’s more like $3m difference by this analysis. That’s not Nurse’s fault at all and he shouldn’t be blamed for dumb GMs setting the market and overpaying, and for previous GMs not wanting to lock him up long-term for say $7-$7.5m/year.
But when you already have 97&29 taking up $20m of the cap and now Nurse is making it $30m for 3 guys, it is a limiting factor for future acquisitions (Kane, etc).
Yes, there is dead space cap for guys like Kassian and Keith, but Holland and whoever the understudy are will have to be extremely careful not to overpay in the future.
Tl;dr I like Nurse, but they overpaid for what they get.
That chart is kind of a mess.. He is projected to be a star on offense at 10.3 (I’m not sure what this number means), he is on pace for 15.4 offenseroos but that’s some how just considered top.
I’m assuming they must be relative stats but it’s weird that Nurse would get marked down on that because other defensemen are having great years.
Also wouldn’t we have to wait for his stats next year before saying it’s a 3M overpayment? This chart looks to me like it is reflective, not predictive.
His ‘market value’ ($6.2M) is based on his projected GSVA of 1.3.
He’s on pace this season for a GSVA of 2.0 which is worth a fuck ton more than the $6.2M he was projected to be worth.
The issue is that contract creates a competitive disadvantage for a long time.
For example, next season, Calgary’s top pair of Hanafin and Anderson are locked in for essentially the same cap hit as Nurse and both are two years younger than Nurse.
That allows Calgary to allocate cap space elsewhere.
I get that a rising cap in a few years will mask the overpay now but of course that will be true for all teams and will benefit those teams who have been more prudent the most.
Exactly, that competitive advantage (with a bit more cap disposition) gives Calgary the ability to re-sign Gaudreau+Tkachuk for more than McDavid+Draisaitl make.
Though that likely still won’t be enough to convince Johnny Hockey to stay in Alberta.
I would imagine Tkachuk might come in around $9 million on an 8 year deal and Gaudreau around $10 million….although neither you nor I will know until the deals are signed.
Whether or not Johnny will stay in Calgary is unknown although he has stated in the past he wants to stay and Treleving is all in on signing him.
We’ll see.
Isn’t Tkachuk’s RFA qualifying offer $9M/year? You think he’s going to give the Flames 7 UFA seasons at his current $9M salary, coming off a 100+ point season? Not a chance. He’s probably going to ask for $12M/AAV for those UFA years.
Treliving is also negotiating with ‘the pack’, not just Matt
He’ll go for as much as he can get
The Tkachuk Clan played Treliving like a fiddle.
He may but, of course, if Tkachuk is on another team next season, the flames will get a HAUL back.
Gaudreau on the other hand could disappear for not asset but cap space.
Your ignorance is astounding. Comparing Nurse’s contract to those two, who signed their contracts at the age of 23 after mediocre seasons. As many have stated, the Oilers’ shouldn’t have given Nurse bridge deals in years past.
Expect Hanifin to demand $9 mil or more when his contract expires in 2 years, because how contracts for defensemen blew up last summer.
Keep moving those goal posts you squid.
I’m fully aware of the circumstances around those signings as well as the error the Oilers made in handling Nurse’s situation.
However none of that changes the competitive advantage Calgary has for at least the next two seasons and perhaps much longer.
You have no idea what Hanifin’s next contract will look like or even if Calgary will re-sign him at the time so reaching into the future to justify the inefficiency of Nurse’s contract holds zero water.
Smart GM’s are identifying difference makers much earlier in the process and locking them into more reasonable deals.
Do you think NJ would like a do over on the $9 million they handed a 28 year old Dougie Hamilton?
I do.
Of course, Gaudreu and Tkachuk could cost $20 mill next year as well. What’s the better value between them and McDavid and Drai? Silly.
I think that might be underestimating what they would sign for.
Putting Nurse as a bottom pairing D defensively is absolutely ridiculous!
I will readily admit to being an unabashed Nurse fan but pure and simple Doms model needs some work! Given Nurses reliability and tough minutes played as well as overall minutes played on a regular basis for him to not be rated higher says to me that the methodology that Dom uses is flawed and of little use!
How much does Nurse sign for if Seth Jones doesn’t sign the deal that he did?
Probably $9M-$9.25M.
Heiskanen signed at $8.8M for mostly RFA years before Jones signed his deal.
RFA years have become much more valuable as the league skews younger.
Makar is a great example of that way of thinking.
RFA years haven’t become more ‘valuable’, they’ve become more expensive.
This makes no sense.
Of course it does.
In a cap world, if you’re paying your star RFAs big dollars for max term, the money has to come from somewhere and, increasingly, older players are accepting less.
Again, using the Colorado example, Landeskog was re-signed long term to a $7 million cap hit (28 years old when signed) which, based on your old model, would have been unthinkable not long ago.
Rantanen got $9.25 million but was only 24 and coming out of his ELC when he was re-signed.
It’s very obvious that Sakic and Spriggings have figured out it’s best to pay players for their most productive years rather than give out retirement contracts like Nurse who is very likely to have 3-4 years of declining performance at the end of that contract.
Kadri is 31 and it will be fascinating to see how his next deal plays out.
RFA years have not ‘become’ more valuable, certain GMs (Dubas and Sakic among them) have rather accepted paying RFA aged players more than previously.
Deals for RFA aged players have actually become far less valuable from a cap efficiency perspective.
In the shorter term, they become value if the player stays on track, like Drai, but there is a bit of lag
You are also paying for prime instead of fade. I believe a GM if possible should try to time contracts so a player can be dealt while still productive with term left
There are few players that warrant to run pole to pole. ‘The Window’ is a creation of poor strategic planning and sentimentality. Other league’s top teams are better at staying competitive over time by cashing in
Connor stays if he wants to. Really it should only be him and maybe Drai or Nurse, but probably not
You need to use their value to refresh. Nuggy gets a soft pass because he signed low enough that he is affordable as an old Baby later
Hyman we’ll see but he’s very helpful now
Was it Woodguy that said he heard the number was 8-8.5 before Jones
That seems in line. However he’s only 750K above 8.5 it’s liveable
The thing that irks me is that it was Holland who facilitated the Jones deal, thus meaning his own team had to pay too much
He’s supposed to protect his team’s interests and he totally ballsed up that situation
A smarter GM would have locked Nurse in before the Keith trade IMO, wasn’t too hard to see what was coming
8.5 is a lot of money, and just because Chicago is stupid doesn’t mean the Oilers have to be. Good for Jones but that doesn’t happen here should be the mantra like cap efficient teams do
Holland isn’t in the business of making sure all of his players are at the top for salary, in fact it’s the opposite and should be the price of playing with Connor and Leon. It has to be
Holland punked himself.
That’s how I feel, not Nurse’s fault
Woodguy said $7.5Mish the other day.
More likely Nurse’s camp said they weren’t signing until Jones signed.
Probably but Holland cannot be so passive and without strategy
Jones was triggered by Holland and his deal. A smarter GM locks up Nurse and then does Keith
Negotiating is allowed not just sitting back and waiting for players to dictate
Same happened with Larsson. There’s being considerate to the players and there’s being negligent to the team
Set a timeline for Larsson not so close to the draft. Push Nurse to sign and go to his higher marker. Would have come out ahead
Jones may have got more but he has to play on the Hawks and that means something unless money is all you care about
Ive also mentioned before Connor did a team friendly not at what he could have asked, because, he wanted a more competitive team
Holland didn’t require Nurse to chip in as well. First thing I would mention to the agent
You also have to be willing to trade. If you ‘have to have’ something your bargaining power is gone
Again I don’t blame Nurse and want him on the team, I think Holland is weak at trades and signing top level deals.
Nurse can be great and overpaid and the Oilers did two poor negotiations, all at the same time
If we knew it was the last one it would be easier to put to bed, but……
This subsumed that Holland is able to simply drive negotiation as he prefers which is not the case in reality.
In particular with Nurse – Nurse himself said that, prior to the market changing, he was looking for a shorter term deal expiring near the Drai/McDavid deals.
A long term deal for Nurse at $7.5MM is simply not something Holland had the ability get done.
You are making some very questionable assumptions here. Is Dom’s model accurate? He has had accuracy issues in the past vis-a-vis predicting playoff teams. Are the metrics that he is using to determine value the most ideal? Are they repeatable? Do they have any predictive value? You are putting a lot of faith in him to arrive at your opinion.
Teams know that if they engage Kane they can sucker him into a penalty. Wait until the playoffs and there is a scrum after every whistle. He needs to be coached to skate away and stick to hockey.
Did you not watch the last 2 playoffs, what Kane does is no different then the other team.
You may be right, but I said last year the Oilers should have been setting a tone before the playoffs because it’s hard to in them. The Jets were out of line with Connor
Playoff birth secured, let the league see you’re more than willing to engage, and maybe even looking for it
Just pick you’re spots later. When Kane threatens someone as an Oiler they know he’ll back it up, it’s not punk lip service
Been a long time since we’ve had that. Especially skating with Connor
For those who dislike Nurse’s contract and judge the player based on that, I openly challenge you to state your occupation and what you make and let the armchair internet trolls feast on you. In other words, put your money where your mouth is.
You can’t begrudge a guy who signs for X dollar amount and say he’s a bad player. The team offered it to him based on market value and that’s that. He’s quality and bleeds for the team.
As far as Vegas goes, stick a fork in them. This offseason was already ramping up to be a doozy in terms of player movement and such. I think Vegas will be leading the charge. The only question is if McCrimmon and company will be in charge or not.
I love Nurse. He’s an absolute beast. I think it’s also fair to argue he’s overpaid next year. I personally don’t think it’s an issue. Complaining that a stud like Nurse is overpaid by even $1.5 mill is quibbling IMO. The real issue is overpaying guys like Kassian and Koskinnen because they bring zero value to a team – and you end up playing them because they can’t be moved without pain and they take up cap space.
But professional athletes make he money they do precisely because their salaries are public. Prior to publication of salaries, athletes were routinely shafted by their owners. Pro athletes can’t have it both ways. You suck up the criticism because that’s one of the big reasons you get paid so much. Truly first world problem.
As an aside, most employees working for any company would also benefit from the publication of their salaries. Don’t see that happening anytime soon though.
My lemon tree works for the government. Her salary is basically on the public record. She’s presently union excluded, so her hours of work are officially flexible—in one direction only. Relative to the five hours per week of work most people outside of government presume to be the norm within government, she’s grotesquely overpaid.
We shared a home office for much of the last two years, and I can assure you she works like a dog. Half of the time, I can’t distract her from her five-minute tire-fire-of-the-moment long enough to inquire what she wants for lunch. Her entire job is a tire-fire buffet. Much of this is caused by industry having their pants on fire to get past the red tape, and then submitting only half of the required documentation—or submitting 10× the required documentation, with the crucial bits camouflaged like a self-propelled howitzer bunkered down mid the trees—a rainbow of green paramecium skin tones packed into a jellybean phone booth—at the prospect of facing across from real tanks.
Her role sometimes involves mediating a consultation process. It’s industry’s job to do the actual consultation. It’s her job to make sure they file a plan for how they intend to do this, which sometimes involves setting out decision criteria concerning how the cookie crumbles after the consultation concludes. I’m paraphrasing and intensifying immensely, but that’s the favourite part for industry to deliver as hydrogenated palm oil. Sure we’ll consult, with multiple layers of red carpets to greet and coddle all the other stakeholders, and then we’ll decide in a private suite by private rules for private outcomes driven by hard business logic.
It’s all probably over-regulated, but when you leave industry to its own devices, you end up with the Love Canal. Of course, that was long ago in the olden days, when men were men and children had three arms. Modern industry has since learned their lessons. And then you get the Berkeley Pit.
Memo to Captain Kirk. Everything you need for survival is found on the planet’s surface. Lemon juice, copper, zinc. Kirk can’t make black powder this time, but he can make an electric rail gun. Hurry, now. Time’s a wasting. Hope you brought your peril-impervious hip waders. This mineralogist’s wet dream is swampier than Dagobah.
Another thing. Why was that giant green lizard so implacable in the first place? He probably found out from the subspace gossip grapevine that Kirk had been drilling his wife. You should have heard that big green lizard belting out Marvin Gaye in the Mos Eisley Karaoke bar last shore leave.
Uhura! Discipline that subspace switchboard on deck seven. They weren’t intending to leak personal information about Star Fleet officers on the job, after hours, but a heated debate broke out among the red Starfleet miniskirts about Kirk’s batting average—with or without including Evil Kirk? Some of that voluble dust-up must have leaked into an open subspace mike two consoles over.
Now it’s an open secret in Enterprise lore that Evil Kirk made the rounds on deck seven, before the scratches on his “cheek” from Janice Rand gave him up as the impostor. But that’s the sixties version, all cleaned up. The reality was that Evil Kirk had multiple sets of livid contrails raining down from those broad yes-yes-yesable shoulders—almost like he’d been birched by a chain-gang of gleaming Cockshutt plow blades.
[*] The record-breaking harness with 66 bottoms was built from Canadian-made Cockshutt plows manufactured in Brantford, Ont., and former CEO Willy Cockshutt was on hand to drop the ceremonial plow shear into the ground.
[**] He goes by Bill, but all except his best friends call him Willy Shutner.
Evil Kirk nearly got himself caught early on when he nicked Bones’ old-school personal supply of spreadable emollients to sooth and redress dermal abrasion.
Bones: Why that evil, filthy, bastard! I was saving that for shore leave on Rigelia!
Bones must have cursed over his breath, from his not-so-private quarters, because the name stuck.
I’m sure my lemon tree could have blown some of those excess hours off, but then you risk having no juice at the interview table when you apply for a promotion to the next level of tire fire management (as if you’re not already crazy enough).
Compensation. You can’t always get what you want. And when you do get it, you bleed.
Back to the corporate setting, much of what establishes compensation has to do with the level of motivation the corporation wishes to imbue in all the Evil Kirk–minions surrounding the captain’s chair, constantly scheming to take his job at the least invented provocation.
Not Evil Spock: Seriously? Serial mutiny seems like a good system?
Evil Kirk: You bet your Boeings.
That was a lean year, coping with problems not entirely caused by their own hand.
The Price is Right as seen on Family Feud.
Moral of the story: the price is right and the pay is wrong, ever and always.
Top shelf sir.
I hope your Lemon Tree is well.
Also,
I assume you make/buy her lunch without asking what she wants more often than not to happily (usually) surprise her.
Years ago, a friend of mine (who worked for one of the ministers in provincial government) and I spent about one year working closely together on a project (of mutual interest) outside of work hours.
The key to that sentence was “outside of work hours” because his hours were “flex” in the true sense. He was a speech writer, and the minister wanted a speech that read naturally, while the industry expected (and the people around the minister) wanted every minute detail to be correct and in industry terms.
Industry terms in the oil industry is at times impossible, so my friend, despite best efforts to write 9-5, was forced to rewrite 5-9. By the end of the project I was glad to be released from waiting on my counterpart to be available.
Crazy. I loved your piece, as always.
McDavid 44th multiple point game of the season last night, most since 95/96 I believe.
He’s the MVP, damn shame they’ll award it to someone else.
Maybe its my homerism but when it comes to penalties I don’t think the “luck swings both ways”. It seems at least partially one sided. Perhaps the coin is slightly weighted.
Nurse is fantastic and his slight overpay now does not cover his larger underpay in the past. My only frustration is I don’t think he has reached his full potential so I expect more out of him. But that’s the beauty of this player. We know despite his already impressive results, that even better days should be in store.
Speaking of one-sided reffing, here are the total powerplays from the recent 3-game home stand:
COL 6
EDM 4
VGK 3
DAL 2
Colorado got more PPs in 1 game than Edmonton got in 3.
COL leading the league in PP opportunites for the 5th year in a row, & by sizable margins pretty much every season: 20, 11, 5, 17, currently 10 more powerplays than the 2nd place club. Over the 5 years combined it’s 1. Colorado 1296, 2. Tampa 1179, a 10% margin. I was at the game Friday & they got a whole smorgasbord of tickytack pe-nalties including a bench minor cuz the ref’s ears were too delicate to hear the truth after he missed McDavid being carved on a breakaway.
This was the team where Kadri pulled Nurse’s helmet off in OT & not only got away with it but actually won the game because of it. Whatever it is they’re selling, NHL referees are buying. In bulk.
Thanks Bruce. Even factoring that Colorado’s skill level should have them in the top echelon for PP opportunities every year, its reasonable to conclude from the numbers you mention that there is some other factor at play
Darnell Nurse is a Stud. Period. Full Stop.
#ShakeItOff
There’s a reason there’s a site that lists 67 songs about haters.
https://spinditty.com/playlists/35-Best-Songs-About-Haters-Bullies-and-Other-Mean-People-Pop-Rock-Country-Music-Playlist
2022 Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March for…
1 – Predict how many playoff wins Oilers get
2 – Predict how many goals McDavid gets
3 – Predict how many goals Draisaitl gets
eg: Wins 11; McD 7; Leon 9
Its easy!
note: Make sure to keep the McDavid/Draisaitl(tie break) predictions separate
N64 posted below:
Magic numbers vs. Vegas:
Kings 1
Preds 2
Stars 3
I was hoping to see Vegas eliminated (out of fear and loathing) and still feel this way,,,,,,sort of…
Odds wise, if Vegas makes it, it will be as the final seed.
An Avalanche / Golden Knights first round matchup might not hurt so bad after all.
#SplittingHairs
#TheEnemyOfYourEnemyIsYourFriend?
Haven’t looked too closely but has Drai’s line been getting hammered consistently on possession the last 10 games or so or am I misremembering?
Yup, in the team’s last 10 games, Leon has played 9 and he’s under 50% in CF and FF and 40% in goals (although right at 50% in expected goals).
I just looked at Leon overall at 5 on 5 (not with linemates).
Nurse seems like one of those defenseman that age really well. I’m hoping his peak is around age 31-32
His skating is elite and we know that high-end skating often means later and slower regression.
I think he’s 34 when his new contract ends….. we’ll likely see some regression near the end but not much.
I think this player will age well compared to many/most – that skating, that athleticism and that commitment to fitness (and general durability).
It really sucks that Klefbom may not play again. He only had 1 healthy season, back in 16-17.
If we had Nurse and a healthy Klefbom anchoring our top 2 D pairs, I could be on the 3rd pair and the Oilers left side would still be better than average.
My brain tells me he’s done. But my heart whispers hope that he’ll be at camp in September.
Last intel that I’ve heard was from Holland a few months ago (maybe February) where he said that Klef was doing well in his rehab and training but then recently suffered a set-back and had to scale it back.
Didn’t sound “fatal” but also didn’t sound good at all.
First the Sekera injury and then, Klefbom’s shoulder becoming chronic changed the path of the org.
Sekera was an elite 2nd paring/low end #1 d-man in his prime when the Getzlaf hit happened – all of a sudden that player was lost forever and replaced a couple of years later with a 3rd pairing d-man (at best) and with the full $5.5MM cap hit.
The team lost 2 low end 1st pairing d-men in their primes with solid to great contracts.
What people forget, and you are bang on in pointing out, is that Nurse negotiated those last contracts in good faith. This last contract is what is owed to him.
I like Nurse but get caught wishing for more when I see decision making errors/delays. I have visions of Pronger and dreams of Lidstrom. I’d settle for Carlson.
It is on me to change my expectations. Not his issue.
He is a really good to great defenseman.
I didn’t see much of the game yesterday but when I tuned in the Oil were buzzing. Line after line seemed to be hemming the Jackets deep. The PP was the only real chance against until the 2v1 – at which point we were pressing.
Onward.
This Carlson?
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/tkkwj5/john_carlson_makes_no_attempt_to_play_defense_on/
Holy that is rotten defending. He made as much effort on that play as Lehner did the other night against the Capitals.
Its amazing how not liking the cap hit automatically makes you not like the player.
I dont think theres a single Oilers fan that doesnt like Nurse, other than the hibernating Bear.
There are some bona fide haters out there. They’re wrong, but they’re out there.
I didn’t like or even understand the forward deployment. “Start as you mean to go” young Mr. Woodcroft.
Anyone know our record 11/7 vs 12/6?
I counted manually and didn’t check to see if Tippett did it, but it is 12 wins 4 losses 61 GF, 42 GA. The first 12 games of the Woodcroft era, JW went 8-4, 42 GF, 37 GA and the most recent 4 games stretch where Russell was added, the team was 4-0, 19 GF, 5 GA.
Nurses contract is fair particularly given the fact of previous bridging deals when the club, could and should have signed him long term at what would now be a value contract!
You’re bang on about the Bjokstrand goal being on Kassian. I saw some argument about that not being Kass’s man but that goes to not understanding modern defensive zone systems. When the puck is 50/50 or under opposition control behind the goal line, the wingers must swarm to the front of the net so you can outnumber everywhere. At that moment, the defensemen are not “dangerous” relatively.
It’s a bit like an accordian; swarm and come together when we don’t have the puck and fan out or expand when we do.
Love the Kassian drive-by
Dear Lowetide:
True Story…
Only early this morning was listening to The Doors greatest Hits, marveling at “LA Woman” my new Fave Doors song, but stopped the 8 track tape at “Roadhouse Blues”.
Everything is true except the 8 track tape(it was a 78 record) part.
Contract aside, there’s nothing not to like about Darnell Nurse. He’s big and tough and fights when he likes and usually wins unless its Lucic then it’s a draw. He skates exceptionally well and takes care of the goalie, unless he’s taking out an opposition player against the boards. His positioning is so good you barely notice it. Finally he is intelligent on offence. This season he’s stepped up a notch but is so freaking smooth I doubt if anyone aside from me has even noticed it.
To top it off, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nurse continues to make major strides over the next 5 years.
All this and the vast majority of his ice time career wise,without a top pairing D partner!
The Nurse stuff seems a bit of a red herring for me. I’d say the % of people who don’t think Nurse is our #1 defenseman is less than 1%. His engine is astonishing. His skating is among the very best in the entire NHL.
Sure people get carried away on the cap hit, nit picking about +/- 1.5 million.
I like to nitpick (and wish he’d cut it out) about his offensive-zone cycle breaking Nurse muffins from the point. But it doesn’t mean I’m not very thankful to have him.
Didn’t someone here note that Nurse’s record defending 1-on-1s is 4567-0?
The Oilers looked like a team that had just clinched a playoff spot. They played well enough, had plenty of chances to score, but didn’t finish. There seemed to be a lack of effort, and attention to detail, defensively.
Not a big fan of loading up with McDavid and Draisaitl either. Looked a lot like the coach was chasing scoring titles rather than wins. I really don’t see this combo generating any more chances together than they do on their own. So what’s the point?
I’m most likely wrong, but I felt it was the coach getting a feel for what he might be able to send over the boards when down a goal in the playoffs to make a difference. I will say I was impressed with the effort, just didn’t get the results.
Obviously, Woodcroft is a big 1971 Medicine Hat Tigers fan.
I don’t think the load-up was about chasing scoring titles, it was about chasing the tying goal, no?
I don’t necessarily agree about the “load up” – I’m not a huge fan but, from time to time, I think its a weapon to be used.
I think the numbers over the years show that the duo does indeed create and score at inflated rates together. At the same time, GA are also inflated.
I’ve always liked Nurse and wanted him on draft day… I’m sure there are others who could offer a better comparison, perhaps the WAR charts etc. that compare past player results. In my opinion, he reminds me of Vlasic, nothing too sexy, nothing fantastic but eats minutes, plays against elites and Vlasic is now into 1200 games played category. I give the defensive bonus to Vlasic but the offensive checkbox to Nurse. Toughness is Nurse everyday, and I’ll call a split on the glue/good guy in the room, core player etc..
I recall a recent post regarding ~$1M-$1.5M overpay on the next contract which seems fair. As LT posted, it’s not his fault. There is a chance, although slim, he out performs the contract like Leon, when we all complained about that contract, or even draft pick by some. There’s some intangibles too, he and Nuge could keep some pretty good players here down the road.
I’m on the train that once the cap bumps up meaningfully the cries of this contract that hasn’t started yet will dim. Especially when Keith’s contract is off the books.
It’s only an issue because we have Keith, Kass, Kosk, and a bunch of dead cap filling up the books. Good teams utilize the space well so you limit the overpays.
Burke said it best. When he was trying to bring free agents to the Canadian market he just added 1-1.5M for the tax, spotlight, etc. That falls in line with your point on overpays, and Nurse was getting market value at the time.
Really have no issue with the contract, especially since it isn’t paying for his twilight years ala Vlasic.
Have always liked Nurse. Would suspect that if the people who are not fond of Nurse (for whatever reason) were to watch other number 1 defensemen around the league long enough, many would see those number 1 Dmen make many mistakes as well.
I was at the Burnaby Winter Club on Friday night.
It’s like a shrine to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
No plaque / jersey for Matt Barzal?
Haha. Barzal and Santorelli are like the Silver and Bronze winners on the podium.
Some great framed articles from when RNH was drafted into the Dub. It really has something of a museum feel to it.
Then you can drive 10 mins West and watch Mr and Mrs RNH’s horse race at Hastings. He’s the king of Boundary Road.