The Edmonton Oilers have a 3-1 series lead over provincial rival Calgary Flames, and the key player in the game was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The “middle child” of Edmonton’s No. 1 overall selections, Nuge has been overlooked and undervalued during his 11 seasons in the Alberta capital. Last night, he scored early, and when the team needed another goal in a suddenly tight 3-3 game, the veteran pivot went shelf (top shelf!) for the winner.
It was a ‘heart attack at every turn’ kind of evening, but it turned out just right in the end.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins having effective playoffs before big goals
- New DNB: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets his chance to shine in the playoffs
- DNB: Cody Ceci making himself ‘irreplaceable’ in playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers future relies on quality coaching replacement in Bakersfield
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl assists on all four Oilers goals in win over Flames
- Lowetide: Has Oilers goalie Mike Smith earned the net in 2022-23?
- DNB: This is how Connor McDavid wins: ‘He’s like a shark circling the waters’
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ emerging NHL Draft selection destination
- DNB: Oilers’ biggest worry after Game 1? Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl’s health
- DNB and Hailey Salvian: Flames beat the Oilers in a wild, high-scoring Game 1
- Lowetide: What should Oilers do on right wing this summer?
- DNB and Hailey Salvian: Flames vs. Oilers: Key matchups, injury updates and storylines
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers’ stats from wild first-round series win over Kings
- Lowetide: Oilers defence prospects, who’s staying and who’s going?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway’s future fit on depth chart?
- Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Oilers could not see chaos ahead
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers’ options for 2022 NHL Draft
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
- Lowetide: Oilers regular season report card for 2021-22
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
GOALTENDER
Mike Smith stopped 29 of 32, .906 on the evening. He had a couple of tough ones in the first period, handled them well, and the power-play goal by Lindholm wasn’t on the goalie (the shooter had all damned day). The Backlund goal was a fine shot, and even though you don’t like to give it up, some effort in delaying Backlund’s path to the net would have been a big help. The third goal I can’t explain, but it did give me an idea about what it would have been like if Lonnie Smith played goal instead of the outfield. Oh well, what doesn’t kill you makes you strong. Edmonton won the game, so we’ll all laugh by the campfire on long weekends in the future when the subject comes up, but dear God that goal could have been infamous for 100 years in this city.
DEFENSE
Duncan Keith got beat by Mikael Backlund on the second goal, that’s a vital play for an NHL defenseman. Edmonton won the game, but Keith can’t get beat there. Keith had a GV, 2TK, and three blocked shots. Evan Bouchard had one shot on goal, several other attempts, plus a giveaway. Bouchard didn’t impact the game offensively, he usually does something of note.
Darnell Nurse was passive on the PP goal, forcing the issue was an option and his being stationary made the shot easier for Lindholm. Three shots, three GV, five blocked shots, two HDSC, the early one was a terrific look. His wheels are back, and Nurse’s ability to transport has returned. That should be a big deal moving forward. Cody Ceci was healthy, that was a worry after Game 3. He picked up an assist on the first Kane goal, and this pairing had good numbers across the board.
Brett Kulak’s speed was useful against an aggressive Calgary group, he can shoot the gap well and gets the puck out (mostly) under control. Tyson Barrie had some calm feet (I know, but he did) on several plays and I found his outlet passing to be the most effective of the defensive group. He picked up an assist on the second Nuge goal.
A quick note on the group: They’re doing that flop airborne pass too much from their own zone. Absolutely need to be less predictable, and more precise with passes, if this team has plans to go deeper.
FORWARDS
Evander Kane’s first goal showed great range and balance, plus power on the shot. He has 12 goals in 11 playoff games, two last night along with five hits. Leon Draisaitl had two assists, almost a goal and 2 GV, 1TK. He is 7-14-21 in 11 games. Connor McDavid took a lot of abuse last night, got tied up awkwardly with (I think) Erik Gudbranson. Very not good. He managed two assists on the night and four shots, he looked dangerous several times (as opposed to Sunday when he looked dangerous all the time).
Zach Hyman is consistent and excellent. His early power-play goal showed what he brings, intelligence (net front and knowing where the puck is), strength (he’d been there some time) and effort (he won the battle for the puck). At five-on-five, he had a shot, a penalty, a takeaway and made the Flames work for progess. Edmonton was 2-0 goals with Hyman on the ice. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one of his best games, I’m delighted it was at home and Woodcroft got him a chance for three. Nuge’s biography could be called “To Hell and Back” but only if the “and Back” portion arrives in time. His early goal was a mistake by Markstrom and a pivotal moment. The late one was the pivotal moment in the game. Two goals, four shots, four HDSC, one takeaway, 9-5 shots at evens when 93 was on the ice. A great night. Jesse Puljujarvi had one shot, one reasonable look and turned over the puck late when the game was in doubt. That got him shifted downward and Kailer Yamamoto was on the line when the winning goal was scored. I thought he skated well and forechecked, but he was tentative on the sequence descrbied above. Blocked some shots and discouraged Hanifan enough for the Calgary defenseman to stop trying to force it through all those arms and legs.
Warren Foegele took a slew foot, drawing a penalty that led to some worrisome moments wondering if he would be okay. He had six hits, and the Oilers were 1-5 shots and 0-1 goals while he was on the ice. That’s not inspiring. Ryan McLeod may have lost more teeth and at this point he’s become a young Walter Brennan. Like Foegele, he didn’t have much going on five-on-five, and won just one of six faceoffs on the night. Kailer Yamamoto had the mammoth assist on Nuge’s winner, and two giveaways while he was on this line. I’m not sure we’ll see the kid line again, but they’re all interesting players.
Zack Kassian ran into Josh Archibald and felt it, took some time in the hallway to compose himself. He had a pretty good game, one shot, two HDSC and hit people who weren’t his linemates. The line was 2-5 shots but had the only two HDSC’s. Derek Ryan had a quiet night (one shot) plus a good look on the PK. I liked him with Nuge, wonder if McLeod might be a good center for him. Josh Archibald hit some people, was on for a GA again and DID NOT penalty kill. First time in memory and could indicate he’s about to be rested.
WHAT NEXT?
The series itself has been the most enjoyable involving the Oilers since the 2006 run. There are some incredible things happening, like the No. 1 line and Mike Smith outplaying Jacob Markstrom. The three defensive pairings have found chemistry, moving Draisaitl to right wing hasn’t caved the No. 2 line, and on it goes. The power play worked for two goals last night (the Kane late marker was credited as one), while Edmonton gave up a PP and a PK goal.
What can we expect on Thursday? The Oilers are not winning the series in some important five-on-five (39.78 Corsi, 41.61 Fenwick, 44.44 shots, 44.84 expected goals, 42.86 high danger chances) categories, but have outscored five-on-five 15-11. As our friend Woodguy mentioned in the comments section yesterday, volume doesn’t necessarily mean quality, so that’s a consideration. I think Mike Smith gets some credit, the coaching staff has the defense playing well in coverage (the Keith play aside) five-on-five and luck has been a lady in this series. The Flames have lost the last three games by a cumulative score of 14-7. This year’s Flames might be a train in vain.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we’ll talk Oilers and Flames and what Thursday may bring. Is it bad luck to talk Colorado this early? Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will join us at 10:20, and we’ll want your input on the series. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
What an insane period!!! I can’t describe it. I’ll talk about it around the campfire for the next 39 years.
I swear, both flamerz goals were flukes. Johny fanned and it went it.
The big dummy’s shot just plopped on jarncrows stick and he did make a good shot though.
Can’t wait for the third period!!!
Nobody actually wanted to be a gangster. Everyone just wanted to be Ray Liotta.
Close it out for Ray Boys!
Oh I’m going to post this link in the new thread too.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/insider/story/_/id/33984791/why-edmonton-oilers-goalie-mike-smith-most-fascinating-player-2022-stanley-cup-playoffs
Have to admit I’ve only seen Kuemper play a few times this year, but last night was a game which showed me that he is not the vaunted goalie many a pundit have made him out to be.
Very unimpressed and makes me glad Holland didn’t drop serious assets to get him.
McKinnon’s goal was amazing. What an individual effort. I’m always impressed that guys like him, mcdavid, etc..can do what they do at the sheer speed at which they do it. Pity the poor defencemen and goalies who have to see those bullet trains coming down the ice.
So, with respect to the story a few days ago that Mikko has essentially signed in the Swiss League with HC Luano.
Well, today a similar story came out abut Alex Chiasson and his agent has responded that the Chiasson very much wants to re-sign in Vancouver and, failing that, anther NHL team come free agency.
I think we can put all but no stock in the report about Mikko.
With the news coming out on a playoff game day. I was thinking that it was perhaps a playoff gamesmanship favour to the Flames from an ex coach (Hartley).
Nathan looks rattled the Blues need to frustrate him somehow. Remember that huge hit by Kassian on Nathan something on the lines of that and this series is there’s for the taking.
I was fortunate enough to see that hit and game live. Connor put up 6 points, but Kassian’s hit was the highlight of the night.
Wow, what a performance by St. Louis, down 3-0 into the 3rd, so easy to fold. Chipped away, didn’t let the McK goal fluster them. Winning in Denver, too.
Heck, *if* the Oilers advance, I think I’d rather they play the Avs, who looked lousy-leaky tonight. Blues could be a LA+++ load.
Congrats to the Blues for extending the Colorado series.
At very least the extra game will help wear the Avs out,
or if it goes to game 7 maybe the Oilers get extra rest, or all kinds of other cool possibilities.
Yes, Bozak creates more hockey – on to game 6 in St. Louis.
How deflating is this loss I’ll take the Blues with the momentum to win game 6 at home.
Play 7:15, come on, hit a 77 mile an hour half slapper, and voila, all of St. Louis wants to buy you a steak dinner. Good life.
It’s not over till the fat lady sings. Berube would not let his team fold.
Nathan MacKinnon just scored the best goal I’ve ever seen
Unbelievable.
Haha you must have missed some of McDavid’s highlights over the years! Great goal by MacKinnon no doubt but he takes on one defender… yes, only one defender after blowing through the neutral zone.
Pathetic.
1 week for taunting?
I view it the way many viewed Lucic. I’m not looking for him to be suspended, it’s much more beneficial for our enjoyment that the court jester is nearing the inability to hold his act together.
Nice goal, but Pavel Datsyuk says hello.
Now you are starting to run out of teams to try to look smart with.
I said try.
Contrarians(you) are not so much as smart but socially inept.
So you might well start brushing up on the NY Post articles re the Rangers.
Lol! If that’s the best goal you’ve seen, I feel sorry for you. Seriously, I do.
He actually bobbled it after turning Nick Leddy into a turnstile, and the quick recovery with that speed was the best part. Let’s not kid ourselves, though. One of the best individual effort goals of the playoffs, maybe, but not even the nicest goal of the playoffs, let alone one’s life.
non-winner be you
This year is killing you isnt it?
You must not watch much hockey.
Was hopin the Blues could take another bite out of the Avs.
U may get ur wish!
Blues tie it up, showing Oiler-like resilience.
as an aside, the hat trick hat toss really robs a home team of momentum – that 7 minutes gave STL time to regroup and rest. Paid off.
agreed. That’s often a consequence of the hat tossing.
For the Oilers, a hat trick toss means time for the top line to rest, which is probably to their benefit.
and they get it tied back up. unbelievable
And done!
chomp!
Blues pull within one half-way through the third – trying to squeeze a series out of this.
and they tie it up with under 5 minutes to go – they’ve been dominating for that last while.
and MacKinnn scores what may be the goal of the playoffs to re-take the lead with 2:46 to go – and the hats fly.
and Nick Leddy shows why the praise has been over-stated (playing above his head for too long, in my opinion).
and the Blues tie the game AGAIN with less then a minute left and the goalie pulled – holy hell.
Yes that was McDavidesque. Be nice if they could go head 2 head
Summarizing!
Petrov finishes 1+1 with 4 SOG, but North Bay’s rally falls short in a 6-4 loss. The Battalion now trails the series 3-0.
For the first time in these playoffs, Shawinigan loses as Quebec gets the go-ahead goal with less than a minute remaining for a 3-2 win. Similarly, it was also the first time The Bourg was held scoreless in these playoffs.
bcurlock
@bcurlock
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43m
Xavier Bourgault began his QMJHL semi-final against the league champion Quebec. This was Bourgault’s worst playoff performance albeit against a powerhouse team. Lacked energy for most of the game. Absent in the offensive zone and pushed around a little bit by Quebec. G2 tomorrow
Not one word about the Slew-foot by Toffoli on Foegele and how the Oilers made him pay.
Didn’t the Oilers make him pay by scoring on the ensuing powerplay?
LT said…
Can you tell me what zadorov said to the oilers bench after 3-3 goal? It’s right before he does some strange vibrating arms dance.
He said, ‘If he dies, he dies’
Doesn’t explain the chicken dance!
i saw that, at the time i was thinking he was taunting the bench like they were shaking, nervous, or scared
Kassian should never try the Forsberg again.
This is 24 hours old but hadn’t seen it posted yet
https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-keeping-farm-club-condors-at-home-in-bakersfield
The Oilers are quite happy with their AHL club in Bakersfield
Ya, I read that yesterday.
I think a big difference between Stockton and Bakersfield is that Bakersfield has been a successful org financially and Stockton has not.
I understand the concept of “not being near the NHL club” gets rid of distractions and allows the players to focus on their team and their development within that team, etc.
I think it might be a bit of lip-service though if its weighed against the benefits of being in the same area.
The trade off is aldo more difficult to get European (prospects/ free agents) to play for the baby Oil in the hasher Bakersfield.
Still remember seeing a documentary showing the minor team taking the overnight charter bus immediately after a game. I would imagine the 300k or whatever they can get oversea would look awfully desirable compare to playing in Bakersfield for 100k for a shot to the NHL and its 850k league minimum.
Hopefully by staying they signify they stock enough NHL players they no longer need to look Euro to round out roster.
How are you enjoying the playoffs this year?
: p
Well, I got knocked out of the playoff death march yesterday (6 wins), but it’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make!
Petrov gives North Bay an early lead with this wicked wrister from the left faceoff dot for his 2nd of the playoffs:
https://mobile.twitter.com/OHLBattalion/status/1529602142780235778?cxt=HHwWhIC9ge7CnroqAAAA
Hamilton has since scored twice and leads 2-1 after the first.
He then adds an assist as his cross-ice feed is converted for the Battalion’s 3rd goal.
Hamilton up 4-3 after 2.
bit of a breakout game.
If the Oilers get past the flames, it’s going to come down to details
Winning each play. Especially clearing the zone at the defensive blueline. Puck management, not turning it over in the wrong places that creates odd man rushes
Not forcing plays/ trying to do too much, forcing ‘heroics’ puts the puck in your net more than theirs
Finishing. If you get a good chance bury it, and be sharp on the PP when the opportunity arises, much easier to score then
The way Oilers are playing methinks its the Avs who will have to be worried.
When was the last time the NHL saw such pure offensive aggression?
Calgary are tough enough to keep the Oilers from bullying them lol not sure about Colorado. Either way it is found money, and will be a great series.
Been convincing myself all day that if Nuge wasn’t saddled with Arch for all those painful games he would be in a battle for 3rd in playoff scoring with the likes of Evander Kane.
I’m actually quite looking forward to attending some Condors games next season when they are in Calgary.
I listen to Bob Stauffer and Jack Michaels. I pvr the game to sync it better. I truly feel Stauffer is correct. Call the game as is. None of this game management. It was so predictable who was going to get the next one. Interference, hooking, boarding and slew footing all need to be called at any time of the game. It is ridiculous how inconsistent NHL refs are.
Go Blues!
Prospectillation!
While the Oilers aspire to the third round, Petrov and The Bourg are already there. However, Petrov and the Battalion are in a 2-0 series hole against Hamilton, who have not only won their first ten playoff games, but also the last 14 of the regular season. Yes, a 24-game winning streak. Maybe some home cooking will cure what ails North Bay.
The Bourg’s third round commences tonight versus a Quebec squadron what had the best regular season record in the Q.
Both games begin @ 5 p.m. Villeneuve time.
Ready for takeoff.
Kane didn’t travel with the team today because of this.
Nugent-Bowman was hoping for a team update on status but I don’t think they’ve had their media avails yet.
I’d be shocked if he didn’t play tomorrow night.
No way he doesn’t. Baby needs a new pair of shoes.
One of the things I never expected is how well Kane has fit in the room and how well liked he is by his younger teammates.
Whether he’s leading the charge into a scrum, kibitzing with McDavid on the bench, upping the postgame attire, or helping a woozy Foegele onto the bench, EK presents as an awesome teammate in these playoffs. The guy is always smiling even at opposing players who want to punch him in the face! lol
Not only has he added some much needed firepower and swagger to this team, he appears to be the kind of guy you want in your foxhole when the battle is raging.
I know some fans are waiting for the other shoe to drop but there are people that can and do change. If there’s a locker room cancer Evander Kane, I certainly haven’t seen it here. 100% rooting for this player to succeed and keep his feet planted on higher ground.
The last Oiler I remember smiling at opponents like that was a bloody mouthed Don Jackson after he dropped them with somebody
What do you do to bother a guy like that?
Never wrestle a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it
Never heard that pig saying before. Love it.
Twain methinks
Shania?
I have no idea why she never marketed a line of twaining bras.
Coulda won Cups.
Jason Smith?
Kane has been a revelation.
Something about 12 goals in 11 games helps this process.
Naturally you hope he can stick around and be Marion Hossa to this team.
I don’t think we should be too hard on Keith Tkachuk for deciding not to doff his cap for his son’s hat trick. Caps that humongous must be hard to find and very expensive.
It’s probably a bit of a Holy Grail item, like finding a helmet that would fit Puljujarvi. He’s dubbed the Bison King but with that bucket, he’s always been more ‘Royal Order of Water Buffalos’ for me.
My daughter is a lip reader and told us that Keith Tkachuk said “He signed it” when the family was telling him to throw the hat. Not sure who signed it for him, but must have been someone important.
To: Mr. Tkachuk
Best wishes,
Connor
Believe it or not but I think the fluke Goal and the resilience to gut out that win has brought this team even closer together. Please finish them off Thursday, I don’t care how they do it. Nothing would be finer than seeing the Oilers celebrating on the Flames home ice.
When the playoffs started, I felt the story of the season was Holland’s acquisition of Hyman and Kane that balanced the Top 6 with two outscoring pairs. With the shift of Leon to 1W and RNH to 2C since, the Oil now have an outscoring 2L and the truest of all unicorns: a super line that dominates regardless of the opposing matchup.
This is the ingredients for a true Cup contender!
In the 80s, the 2L was Messier and Anderson and the ‘Super Line’ was Gretzky, Kurri and Tikkanen. It’s somewhat different in that Sather often hard matched Mess’ line against the opposing 1L to give Gretzky more clean air. It’s always ticked me off that Messier never won the Selke. And then later they added Simpson essentially creating two super lines but losing Coffey in the trade.
But the raw ingredients are now there AND playing like it!
And the beauty of the Kane and Hyman adds is Holland killed two birds with one grenade. Not only did he add the two finishers that were so desperately needed. He added two players that are relentless and effective on the boards—a skill set that is desperately needed in the playoffs and was sorely lacking on previous rosters.
Hyman was an expensive add and Kane soon will be. But they do everything you want a top 6 W to do, they do it in the hardest areas, and they produce bottom line boxcars! This is precisely the full range of skills a GM should commit his cap to.
These are not one tricky ponys. These are Swiss Army knives. Forecheck. Backcheck. Paycheck!
If the Oilers beat the Flames in the next game and Colorado beats St. Louis, will the Oilers vs Colorado series start pretty soon or would the league wait for NYR and Carolina to resolve?
My viewing of past years is you could expect the West to start first but they won’t do more than a day or two difference as they don’t want to have an unfair finals matchup.
Hey folks,
Taking a quick break at work here to say hi. I’m back in the PG Groove after going 1 round with Covid. A week off work that saw the Oilers turn into a nice little hockey team.
I’ve said this numerous times and I’ll say it multiple more times.
I am going to enjoy every minute Connor McDavid plays in an Oilers uniform. He truly is something special to watch.
Hoping the team can pull off a Game 5 win tomorrow and save my bracket.
Sutter looks outcoached at every turn. Woodcroft and Manson have helped these players turn the corner. Much kudos to them. All lines are contributing and contributing in a positive way for the most part. There’s something to be said about a coach having belief in you, and quite another when the coach makes you believe in yourself. There is no greater joy in coaching than seeing players do something you knew they could do from the get go, but somehow they didn’t believe they could do until you showed them how. It’s not the major things, but the little things. Being the old coach, I just love it when your hard work starts to show fruition.
I’m glad the Oilers kept Woodcroft in the organization when they let McLellan go. He worked his tail off to get back to the NHL.
Go Oilers Go!
Glad to hear you are back to health.
Honest question, is it seeing players do things they didn’t think they could do or that they didn’t know they should do (or they had to be “convinced” they should do)?
I guess my experience is often with younger players who feel they can’t execute certain plays due to whatever perceived shortcomings they have. In my experience though, even older players can develop, even at a high performance level.
For example, I Used to do this drill I called the Fish Drill. I named it after Fiskins Hockey Skola in Sweden where I first saw the drill. It’s basically an overspeed drill that involves two players gaining speed in the neutral zone, using a touch pass while F1 drives the net whileF2 does a delay skate and either passes or shoots with the idea of F1 looking for a tip or a rebound. It’s difficult to execute at first because it looks like nothing you often see in North America, but once you do, it is fun because you can really gain speed and are forced to pick up a puck at high speed. Even fat slow guys like me feel like Pavel Bure doing the drill. Lots of coaches dislike it, but when a player does it enough, they learn how to execute a proper delay skate without realizing they’re learning that skill. It’s neat to see it work in a game especially when you ask players if they’ve seen that type of move before.
For me, the biggest barrier players face is lack of confidence when playing. As a kid who started playing late (9 years of age) and didn’t get great coaching, I never thought I was a good player. Now that I’m older, I realize I was ok as a player. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not Tony Robbins nor Gordon Bombay. You need players with basic skills. However, players learn and compete in an environment that is conducive to learning; fair, challenging, and fun. Hockey is a hard game to play and learn, but it is also the most fun you can have on two feet.
Long winded I know, but I hope I’ve answered your question.
Thanks for your response – informative.
I wonder if its a bit different at the NHL level, even with the younger players, who seem to be full of confidence these days. I wonder if its more about teaching them WHY they should be doing certain things on the ice as opposed to the skill of actually executing.
I think you nailed it. It’s the ability to teach your drills and make your drills have purpose. Case in point this season with Travis Green and the Canucks. You’ve probably seen the clip where Olli Juolevi ends up laying on the ice after a line skating drill. Most guys who get to the NHL have probably been coached with a multitude of systems drilled into their heads and will constantly ask why they need to do some drills. Green bag skating guys does nothing but humiliate those who aren’t the fastest. That and skating between the boards are two of the dumbest drills I’ve ever seen. They serve no purpose.
I thought of McLeod when reading this (and him continuing to use his size in more useful ways this playoffs). Would love to hear some specifics that you’ve noticed, if you’d care to share.
With McLeod, I think Woodcroft and probably Manson to a degree, a big difference I see is that McLeod hits with purpose. There isn’t a randomness to his hits and he rarely gets caught out of position when he does hit. He’s become more effective because of his speed. You need good skating skills to be an effective checker. If you aren’t, then you become Lucic looking to catch someone with their head down and make a big hit that essentially takes you right out of the play. McLeod has the size and the speed to get back into the play after making a hit. When he has the puck, he uses his reach to fight off defenders.
Thanks!
Taylor Fedun just got resigned for two more years by the penguins @ 850k. I guess he’s captaining their farm team? Good for him, I was rooting for him hard and when he broke his femur I was sad for him.
It’s surprising how many drafted and walk on ex Oiler D are still playing with other organizations.
I was glad to see that to, especially after fracturing his femur. That is such a brutal injury and the care medical staff have to take when it occurs, is mind boggling. Nice to see him have a career after that.
Matheson has a Holland quote stating that if it wasn’t for the charley horse, Holloway would’ve spent April with the Oilers.
We need to get that boy some injury bug spray
lol
C’mon Woody play him, he’s fresh as a daisy ready to forecheck like a demon and create turnovers for his linemates.
I’d also like to see Holloway & being up 3-1 in the series seems like the perfect time to test him out with minimal risk.
I love this! Oilers losing in the fancies but winning the games. Heads must be exploding all across the analytics universe.
All very well to say “oilers should do more analytics,” but worth remembering this gem from Mark Twain: “Sir, your work is both original and good. Unfortunately, the parts that are good are not original, and the parts that are original are not good. ” I think analytics is similar – it’s hard to be both original and good.
I remember thinking Oilers were going cutting edge analytics with Eakins and the swarm. Whoopsie 🙁
Not to say analytics isn’t useful, but it’s worth remembering that it is hard to use them in ways that are both original and good.
For me it’s about what analytics are useful for
They aren’t an in game thing. If a coach needs a stat report to know what he’s seeing in game they are no good or too green for me
Where the benefit lies is finding undervalued players on other teams. It’s a cap management tool. Stats dept can mine leads and scouts can watch them. I don’t think any team has enough scouts to actively watch every team a lot – can miss players
Stats can help find a correct contract value for players needing new contracts or UFAs, it gives a look that’s isn’t reputation, or loyalty ‘he’s a good guy’ based, another tool to do a better job
All teams collect internal numbers based on what they are interested in, if they are wrong about that the coach will lose his job in time
Other than game 1 it’s pretty much been a wash. When it’s like that, i like that 97 is on our side.
The fancies aren’t too bad when adjusted for score and taking away game 1. Here’s what Woodguy posted below:
EDM score adjusted Even Strength (no empty net TOI) Expected Goal Share by game vs. CGY via @EvolvingHockey
:
1 – 31.8%
2 – 47.8%
3 – 52.6%
4 – 58.0%
Whole series- 47.0%
The other thing is that if you don’t focus only on even strength, you don’t even need to score adjust for the Oilers to have respectable fancies.
These are all strengths numbers from Natural Stat Trick for all 4 games:
46.9% SF
55.6% GF
48.6% xGF
46.1% SCF
46.6% HDCF
And the last 3 games (the Oilers really did get out-played in game 1)
50.5% SF
66.7% GF
53.2% xGF
50.0% SCF
53.3% HDCF
Even without accounting for score effects the Oilers were the better team in games 2-4.
I’ve been waiting for Nuge to make a mark in the playoffs and it came at the best of times.
To my eye, Foegelle was better last night, but still not great but the 4th line played better and got some trust in them. That’s a good sign.
Puljujarvi was a shot blocking machine last night. Hope he keeps it up.
McLeod is really coming along. I think he could actually grow into a 2C or a 3C/2C guy.
Foegele gives his all but he can’t handle the puck. Just like Archie plays go to die on their sticks
— would much rather we win one of next 3 games while he playing “not as good” as Calgary
— Re Keith if he “retires” this off season Holland’s GMing status increases IMO. I don’t get how people can’t see that Keith will be paid $1.5mm only. That would be a 4mm cap savings. He not walking away from $5.5mm as some state. A little consult gig due to not being able to be ready for next season to soften the blow of an additional $1.5mm makes sense. It would be entirely reasonable to risk reward an additional $1.5mm on a 70mm + career earnings and decide that physically and or mentally your no longer able or willing.
Exactly. Pay him a consult gig at a ridiculous price that allows him to still be around the team. Being able to pay Kane without buying anybody out would be beautiful. We don’t need more dead cap space in trying to create a balanced roster. Keith has already accomplished most of what we paid him for IMO
Last I checked, there are strict rules in place by the CBA to review retired players salaries and ensure they are market value, or close to it, to prevent this scenario.
can he be Katz personal chauffeur? Not on the payroll yet around the team?
Katz lives in Los Angeles.
I’ve always wondered if something like this was always the plan to give Keith one more chance before retirement. It would have been a gentleman’s agreement, and it would explain the perceived overpay in acquiring the full cap hit.
— yes you did a better job of articulating this. An over pay no longer for a gentleman’s agreement and massive cap savings a year out casts Holland in a different light substantially for me, whatever the stated reason for Keith’s “retirement” if this happens.
There is no indication that Keith is looking to stop play hockey in the NHL.
Yes, as many note, he’s only making $1.5MM of real money next season.
Of course, as many also note, it doesn’t seem like he wants to retire any time soon. We don’t know that but he’s playing at a decent NHL level and, from accounts, loves to play.
While we may want him to retire to open up either $5.5MM or over $9MM (if the league actually approves a reverse recapture bonus), not $4MM, as stated, it seems unlikely given what we know about the person/player.
— really what do we know about the player or person. Lots of reasons that many athletes now retire given the vast sums earned. Wasn’t he the las guy to show up at camp? The 1.5mm is a sunk cost I looked at the 4mm as additional cap space that they would not have had.
— The original premise : which was if he does “retire” I would look at Holland differently. No opinion on whether he actually will. It would be an incredibly astute move. And the main push back was he’s not walking away from $5.5mm. Which is wrong, he’s walking away from $1.5mm. And there are massive competitive reasons to help facilitate this. And his character or drive you are just speculating. I provided a bunch of quantitative reasons : percentage of earnings risk of injury etc
Silly thinking but what’s stopping him from retiring then a month later coming out of retirement and signing a 2 year times 2 deal with the Oil.
— Hi Tom Brady.
The CBA.
The NHL would be stopping him.
I believe reinstatement after officially retiring requires approval of all 32 teams and, if that is given, in this circumstance, there would be zero chance the NHL permits him to sign with that Oilers for that contract.
I heard that he has the early signs of a rare skin condition that makes it painful to put on his equipment.
it’s called Hossalitils
I can’t wait for the day the Oilers aren’t over the cap in LTIR – it such a terrible way to operate and try to improve the team on the ie.
I’m pretty sure Keith will be on this team until he’s 44 or 45.
Oilers should try the old trade for a buyout and re-sign Keith after, then just eat whatever penalty the League throws at them.
— I’ve read a few people speculate this. Has he indicated that he wants to play for many more years? Chelios for instance was vocal about wanting to play forever. Except for the fact that he’s played a lot of years what indicates that he aspires to play many more years?
Its mainly the accounts from those that know him personally.
— not that I actively look for these but I haven’t read anything about his known aspirations to continue to play (or not to play) or anything from teammates indicating this. Some players for sure it’s been: I want to play “untill someone rips off my jersey”. Or “I want to win a cup and retire”. I’m not aware of any press either way. Perhaps you know people who know him personally?
I think that concussion he had earlier this season (against Chicago if I remember correctly) where he was hammered and then missed quite a few games must have given him second thoughts. $1.5M is a lot but if you can’t pick up your kids, watch a movie, read to them, is it worth that much. They are one hit away from long term damage. He’s banked his money, he’s been lucky injury-wise, maybe he just moves to BC and scouts the WHL for the Oilers.
No, I don’t know him personally.
I do, however, make a point and an effort to, consume as much Oilers content, and read and listen to as much information relating to the Oilers as I reasonably can.
Of note, when Keith was a young pup at 34, he said he wanted to play until he’s 45….
Game 5 in Calgary will be very interesting. The typical approach of don’t change a thing might nt fit in this case..
Oilers have adapted, Calgary has tried and failed.
Calgary should just go back to their regular game plan, it has probably been a Sutter mistake to worry too much about McDavid and have his top line on the bench more than they should be. Thats too bad Darryl.
Is Leon healthy enough to go back to center?
Can the bottom six go back to fast heavy forecheckers with a little McDavid sprinkled in?
Going into a must win game for Calgary , in Calgary, I don’t see the flip up the middle dump out going away. That is the pressure relief valve.
From his agent:
Congratulations to Evander and Mara on the birth of Iverson Frank Kane #2040NHLDraft
Speaking of Kane and his kid(s) – it seems his ex is in Edmonton and I believe she mentioned a custody hearing on Friday.
I will say, Kane has done quite a job playing high end while all sorts of big stuff is happening in his life.
Also, of note, the ex is posting about maybe moving to Edmonton to be near her kid going forward……..
Also of note, he has custody of his kids.
It is more than that or at least was at the time of the last hearing. Based on her behavior prior to the hearing, not only was Evander awarded sole custody, the judge ruled she could only have supervised visitation until she underwent a psychiatric evaluation. Not sure if that has occurred resulting in any changes.
From her social media, she hasn’t seen her kid since November – her social media is CRAZY……..
I was really posting that part about her as it “speculates”, her kid’s future (and Kane’s) may be in Edmonton……
Thank you for reiterating, that implication hadn’t occurred to me.
I would absolutely love seeing Holloway slotted in for next game. I know the chances are slim and none and slim has left the building. Holloway on the forecheck would give the big slow Calgary’s D fits plus you know the Bragg Creek Boy would be in 7th heaven playing the Flames.
Maybe this is thinking 3 steps ahead. Maybe coach knows this is “good enough” against the flames and the appropriate adjustment will be made for the Avs (Blues) without their ability to pre-scout.
I know, I know – that’s almost assuredly not the case but, with this coaching staff, you can’t discount it completely.
Another tempest in a teapot in my opinion. That play is a non-issue. In fact, it’s general issue… all teams do it, including all the ones remaining.
Yes, we’ve seen that a lot. It’s the new ‘glass and out’ without the risk of a delay of game. Gives up possession (most of the time) but buys time for a quick change. If a clean breakout isn’t available, I’m OK with the play.
This is a big damn deal!
Ceci quietly is our best all-around D.
He’s been our more consistent d-man since October.
Rumour has it you were concerned, haha
Hey LT, not to nit pick, but Draisaitl had three points, which is kind of important this time. I don’t know if we discussed this last night. I apologize if it has been:
NHL Public Relations
@PR_NHL
11h
With an assist on the @EdmontonOilers‘ final goal of the night, Leon Draisaitl (0-3—3) made more NHL history by becoming the first player with three or more points in four straight playoff games. #StanleyCup
Berube isn’t going to allow his team to go out with a whimper. Either the Blues or in it till the end or they get there pound of flesh.
Unpopular opinion, but I think Yamamoto is a much better fir for 18-93-56.
13 should be deployed as 71 RW instead.
I think Yama is a better fit on the second line, but he’s also a better fit on the third line. He’s very good at maintaining possession in the ozone. Unfortunately, I don’t think JP makes that pass to Barrie on the game winner. It’s a tough decision for the coach. Yama helps balance things out on the third line. Really need JP to find his game.
i have found generally that Nuge and Yamo don’t make a great combo as they are too small and lose too many battles. that being said on the GWG they were great. Not sure they will be over an entire game. I would consider playing Derek Ryan with Nuge and Hyman, and dress Brassard over Arch for the fourth line center role…play Jesse or Kass on fourth line and give Jesse some shifts (replacing Ryan here and there) with Nuge
Nuge and Yamo had pretty good chemistry with Drai a couple of years ago.
Versatility is part of what makes yams imo worth more than his boxcars. I love that he can be dropped anywhere in the top 9 and do lots of things to help his team succeed. I think the “right place” for him changes week to week with the normal ebb and flow of a team’s momentum.
I don’t post much these days but do read through. Anyone else find it “interesting” that Neanderthal Sutter chose to use Tkachuk to serve Lucic’s major and the bench minor last night? Odd choice for a “star player” no?
He doesn’t kill penalties, so maybe he’s hoping after the PP finishes, Tkachuk can find some open space for a scoring chance?
Good point – I think I was more hoping for “dressing room dissension – angry irrational coach” but you are probably correct!
I think it was a ridiculous Sutter decision. Hes wearing out his welcome.
it worked in the first game, keep trying it, Darryl!!!
I love the win and take it every time, but there is much to learn from yesterday’s game if the Oilers choose that path rather than reveling in their victory.
Nurse needs to play with more intensity and urgency. He has to stay on both feet when possible and get that tendency to want to be a goalie out of his game and just play the man with the puck. Close him out, get a high deflection. No shooter can have that much time that close to the net. These games have not been the best Nurse we have had this season. Be a defenseman Darnell.
Keith looked bad on goal 2, but that starts with the forwards. The Flames almost always drop the puck on entry. Repeatedly. It’s quite effective at gaining entry and then they just keep doing it to the trailers as the Oilers fall further and further back to their net creating a lot of space for a shot. Keith is anticipating the drop pass there and doesn’t want to leave a shooter with a wide open 25 foot shot from the slot. As a result, he gets taken wide and can’t catch up. It starts up ice. McLeod can’t turn over the puck at the blue line like that. Also, he is the center and needs to be back covering that drop pass so Keith can concentrate on the puck carrier. Foegele made a valiant effort to return, but was a step late. The fault on that play mostly falls on the forwards, mostly McLeod who needs to be sharper and aware of the transition danger so he doesn’t get caught. Keith should take some blame for not respecting the puck carrier but they have literally never driven wide all series so I can see why he cheated a bit.
The third goal can’t happen. Smith has to be ready for that. A bit of even-up for the Markstrom gaffe from the hockey gods perhaps. Goalies will tell you those are hard to see and unpredictable. Shots don’t usually come from that far because the opposition fears icing, so a goalie has to be ready on a PP for a weird one. Kane turning over at the blue line was terrible, but mostly that’s on Smith. I’m sure he’s aware.
LT’s note on the aerial pass is a good one as well. The Flames are a very good team, one of the best in the NHL. I think they played much better than the Oilers last night and deserved to win a game they lost. The aerial pass is lazy, not necessarily on the part of the Dmen, but moreso on the forwards who are lollygagging out to the red line when gaining possession leaving no deep outlet. Short passes are the key to breaking out of the zone. Stay deep forwards. Help with the breakout and also in case of a miscue, you will be there to defend. There is always a danger of the “North drift” when scoring in bunches. Everyone instinctively wants to get a head start on the next goal which seems like it will come on the next drive up the ice. But discipline is required to stay deep and help those D get the puck up the ice with possession.
I think it will be difficult to beat the Flames again playing like they did yesterday. I think it will be impossible to beat the likes of Colorado, TB, and Carolina playing like they did yesterday.
Lots for Woody to work on today. I hope he uses the time well.
I think Nurse had his first game where he was physically fit. But I feel his footspeed was faster then his brain speed. 3-0 and he’s cheating down with little to no coverage? Not correctly identifying the biggest threat on the PP (Chances of Tkachuk scoring from the goal line with Smith hugging the post are a lot less than letting the player walking in uncontested)? That slashing call? That was getting called even if his stick didn’t break and all he had to do is take the body.
When Nurse’s injury was more obvious he made smarter, safer plays. To me, he is awesome when he marries the two – smarts AND his athleticism.
Agree with you on the Backlund goal, although at the end of the day, Keith got beat wide. Backlund is a good player having a great series. He’s been the best Flame in this series.
Disagree with you, and most other posters apparently, on the Nurse play. Every NHL dman plays that situation the same way. It’s obviously coached. It’s up to the forward to pressure Lindholm so he doesn’t have time to slide to the middle. It’s also up to Smith to make the save, although it was a great shot. Nurse took away the inside third of the net, the rest is up to Smith.
I’m more willing than most to give Smith a pass on the fluke goal. The puck came out of a sea of dark blue jerseys. By the time it cleared the jerseys it was above the boards and Smith never picked it up against the crowd. Shit happens. And for posters who are saying he was out of position, he was in the middle of the net. What position would you like him to be in?
for what its worth the Cult of Hockey had the scoring chances at 18-9 for the Oilers, all situations…so i’m not sure it’s accurate to say the Flames outplayed the Oilers given the scoring chances. Also, i’m a bit surprised nobody has mentioned the very bad decision by Woodcroft to not play Derek Ryan to start the PK where Lindholm scored. Lindholm is an excellent right shot center going against Nuge who is very weak on his offside…very predictable that Nuge would lose that draw. Often Hyman takes them but he was in the box. Also a poor decision by Woodcroft to play the Mcleod line right after the 3-1 goal instead of Connor’s line. I think different personnel in those situations may have made this a 3-0 game going into the third and likely to end the game…
I absolutely agree. Woodcroft has been excellent, but I cringed when I saw that line go out…
Agree. Wrong line after the first goal. They were tentative and it cost them with a blueline turnover. The shift after a goal against requires players with the confidence to steady the ship.
The Flames didn’t score that goal because Nuge lost the face off. The goal happened a full 53 seconds after the faceoff loss. The Oilers had a couple of decent chances to clear before the goal was scored. Nuge and Hyman are the Oilers best penalty killers and Hyman was in the box. That was the first PP goal against that Nuge has been on for in the playoffs. Without Hyman, Woodcroft chose to go with Nuge/Yamamoto and likely would have followed with Ryan/McLeod, who have been more effective so far as a tandem on the pk than McLeod/Yamamoto.
On the choice of McLeod’s line taking the shift after the PP goal, just prior to the penalty, McDavid’s line had played a 1:44 length shift. They were probably still a little gassed. I don’t think even with the benefit of hindsight, Woodcroft would have made a different decision. He has stated numerous times he trusts McLeod in any situation.
This is when Corsi starts being meaningless. Flames looked like they hung out with TMac with how they dumped pucks in on goal
I was interested to see how you framed that goal last night. Looked like a Salo moment
Just imagine if Drai’s sights were calibrated properly. He could easily have 3-4 more PP goals.
I was wondering about the PP. The Flames have done very well against it, and you can’t really rely on Drai’s one-timer because of the injury.
I guess it’s too difficult to change systems in the middle of the playoffs and your star players mostly needing down time but thought perhaps they might do a different look.
Calgary has done a good job for sure, but PP1 has scored 2 goals in the 4 games, plus the Hyman goal on Sunday with was immediately after the PP ended.
McDavid/Draisaitl’s power play xGF rates this series are almost where they were in the regular season.
I’m not too worried about PP1, I think they’ve just been a shade unlucky. 1 extra Draisaitl goal would have the results where you’d expect, and I think you’ve got to stick with him.
If Drai’s ankle was 100% his sights would be calibrated…think about that
No matter what happens from here damn this has been a joy to watch. I’m pretty sure Mcdavid is a wizard. And seeing Nuge score twice last night was elevating. All the more glorious that its against the flames. I expect them to win in 6 and meet Colorado in the western finals. Imagine that.