As time marches on, patterns develop. Simple math tells you the Edmonton Oilers are getting bigger, but at the Billy Moores last night the young men skating for Oilers white and blue were bigger (mostly) and faster (mostly), many with skill. I don’t know how many of these young men will make the NHL, but the future Oilers roster is going to have size and speed mixed in on every line and pairing. It’s unavoidable.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- DNB: Oilers’ Zack Kassian trade clears crucial salary cap space, so what’s next?
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
DOWN BY THE BILLY MOORES
It’s impossible to notice everything in a game like the Billy Moores, so I make notes on the players I notice and don’t say anything about the rest. If there’s no verbal on a player, I didn’t notice him. Here we go.
- LC Skyer Brind’Amour 6.02, 185. He’s 22, so had the puck quite a bit. I didn’t notice a great deal of offensive flair (some nice passes) but did score on a penalty shot. Good release, goalie caught a piece but not enough.
- RW Jake Chiasson 6.01, 180. He’s 19 and scored a nice goal early in the game. Impressive shot. Chiasson was noticeable for being around the puck and creativity in passing and driving to the net.
- LC James Hamblin 5.09, 180. He’s 23 and was dominant in this game, those wheels turn at a high rate. He scored twice right after the game went 3-on-3 and finished 2-1-3. He could get some NHL time this season.
- RW Dino Kambeitz 6.02, 210. A rugged winger (22) who was impossible to remove from the puck and a tough player for most of the younger players to handle. A rare player of this type at the pro level, he doesn’t have NHL talent but I’m pulling for him.
- LW Shane Lachance 6.05, 210. Huge winger scored on a breakaway by going backhand, nice goal. He will need to work on the boots but you can see why they drafted him. He’s a load, and just 18.
- LC Joel Maatta 6.01, 200. He was noticeable when protecting the puck and in trying to neutralize opponents along the wall. No idea what his future holds but a generally good impression. He is 20.
- RW Matvey Petrov 6.02, 181. He’s 19 and my goodness he scored a nice goal against the young Swedish goalie Jonsson. It was from range and a dart. He also had a nice chance against Fanti, but the goalie stopped it. He looked comfortable against older competition, dominant against younger.
- RC Noah Philip 6.03, 198. The 23 year-old center showed most of his skill set on the night, including speed and skill on a lovely breakaway goal. Great deke, good looks. I’m curious about where he plays in Bakersfield, suspect it’ll be in all three game states.
- LW Carter Savoie 5.09, 192. He’s 20 and one of the most skilled players on the ice. Several quality passes led to chances, and he got a penalty shot but looked like he was thinking too much. Seconds later, he pulled a Nuke Laloosh (don’t think! Shoot!) and fired a terrific shot for a goal from the left circle. He’s a talent.
- LW Reid Schaefer 6.03, 213. He’s 18 and showed good strength and soft hands. Got a couple of good shots away from range that gave the goalie trouble. Scored his goal on a nice backhand. I thought he showed well, especially with the puck on his stick.
- RW Tyler Tullio 5.11, 180. Scored twice, he has a quick release and a real sense of offense. He’s also a constant irritant to opponents and won’t give up on plays. I’ll be interested to see if he passes any of the pure offense right-wingers in Bakersfield over the season to come. He’s a good scorer.
- RD Mike Kesselring 6.05, 215. He’s 22 and handled the young rushing forwards well on the night. Moved the puck well, got some shots off (I think he struck iron at least once) and was a steady player in his own zone.
- LD Darien Kielb 6.02, 183. He’s 23 and had a strong evening with and without the puck. He was solid in Bakersfield, too. He might play a big role for the Condors this season.
- LD Luca Munzenberger 6.02, 190. He’s 19, has size and is mobile. Made some nice outlets and did a good job minding the store. Like most of the blue, quick decisions were key.
- RD Max Wanner 6.03, 184. He’s also 19, mobile and made some nice coverage plays, also interrupted sorties with his quick stick. Miles to go but he looked good.
- LD Charle Wright 6.0, 175. Undrafted and 18, he played well, including puck handding and coverage. I’ll be following his season with the Saskatoon Blades.
HOW MUCH WORK TO DO
The Oilers reportedly offered Curtis Lazar a gig, so that goes some ways to informing us where the team is shopping. Look for a couple of $1 million adds in the extra D, RHC and right-wing slots. That could be LHD Ben Harpur, RHD Greg Pateryn or LHD William Lagesson; RHC Riley Nash; right wingers Phil Kessel, Sam Gagner, Brett Ritchie, Buddy Robinson, Alex Chiasson and my choice Dominik Simon. Daniel Sprong also remains available.
TRADING JP
Elliotte Friedman mentioned yesterday (I think with Bob but I didn’t hear it) teams are interested in Jesse Puljujarvi but want cost certainty. That would seem to present an exit strategy for both sides, if the young winger signs a value deal it would be easier to deal him. It’s also possible the Connor Brown deal means the Finn is back for another year. Interesting weeks ahead.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10, through 2, on TSN1260, we have plenty to discuss. Elks win, NHL free agency, the British Open and more. Steve Lansky will join us and we’ll have more guests covering the big stories. Maybe Jays, but good grief I don’t know if you want to hear it! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
If my last name was Holland… I would reach out to the player leadership group: 97,29,93,91,18,25,etc.
We would have a discussion regarding Puljujarvi. We would deeply discuss his goal share, shot share, xGF%. Admitting his past awkwardness, suggesting constantly that he might be the best natural RW on the roster, while probing for any potential source of lack of confidence in said player.
Maybe reference Nichuskin.
I would suggest that they reach out to Jesse.
Express their desire to have him back in the mix.
Let him know that they value him as a teammate and what they think he needs to work on.
Explain to him that no better circumstance exists outside of Edmonton for him to put up numbers. Either way he needs to put the work in. Invite him to offseason training.
Sign a 1 year (or 2 or 3) x 2.75m show me contract and do everything you can to reap the rewards.
If need be, I’d be a little bit of a prick about it to get my point across. If my last name was Holland.
This is something that probably needs to happens if the Oilers want to maintain the value of the asset.
Forgot to mention the lure of having his name take up significant real estate on the cup. I would never say it out loud. I’d give him a hard proverbial wink of some sort.
The problem with the suggestion imo is that this was already done at the year end meetings with the players named. It would defy reason to think that it didn’t and the players are just not interested for whatever reason.
Don’t think there are any easy answers. There aren’t many good replacement options for Barrie if we move him now. There are still cheaper UFA options than Foegele so his market will be week and might even cost a sweetener. JP we aren’t getting value for.
One thought I had recently was JP for a cheaper RW. Taylor Raddysh, not great value but Raddysh is useful, cheap contract, some upside.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/taylor-raddysh
Meh – Tyler Benson is in the same tier. Yes, I acknowledge some more production from Raddysh this season but, at the same time, while he played 4th line in Tampa, his most common linemates in Chicago were Toews and the Stone Cold Killer.
I imagine Benson would also have more points playing on the Oilers 2nd or even 3rd line.
Slambanna Holland has such a lovely ring to it.
Quick work on the Schaefer contract.
I’ll need to go and check ages, etc. but I think he’ll be eligible to slide twice (if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games in those years).
I presume, as a late first rounder, some small Sched A bonuses – maybe in the $215K to $550K range.
He is one of the older players from this draft with a Sept birthday, so like Borg he will be eligible for the AHL after just one more WHL season.
DNB tweeted puckpedia info confirming it can slide for 2 seasons and can essentially act as a 4 year ELC, similar to Bouch.
It could be a five year ELC.
It will slide this season when he’s back on junior and, even if he does turn pro next season (which is likely), it will slide next year as long as he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.
A tidy piece of work by Holland – if he signed in 2023, it would only subject to the one year slide.
I believe it was with McLeod where is was super hopeful the ELC would get signed prior to the end of the calendar year but the agent had other (smarter) plans.
Back to my trade idea for Patrick Kane
Kane for JP +
JP 4th overall pick still has the talent and time to get lots better, and Kane is gone for certain at the end of the playoffs
which makes this not worth too much more including 50% salary retention from the Hawks. .
Am surely missing something here, and invite the Lowetide posters to vent their opinion:
I think the Hawks can get at least a 1st ++ if they wait until the TD and Patrick can pick the team he thinks looks most likely to get him another cup so Puljujarvi is probably of no interest to them.
If your a G.M what would you pay for J.P? You know Carolina has the Finnish connection. What about Columbus, Laine Johnnny and J.P that line sounds sweet to me. I know Hollands going to show J.P agent that he’s not running the show in these parts and that he’s just s fuking 10% mouthpiece for J.P. Sweet Carolina Columbus and Montreal are my 3 picks for J.P’s departure.
If I were a G.M. I would offer sheet J.P at $3.25 M for four years.
Our new 1LW.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXuSJmYUYA0u42R?format=jpg&name=medium
She doesn’t look big enough.
What do folks think of Anton Stralman as a cheap 3RD replacement for Barrie?
1) how likely is he to actually be cheap (<$2M)
2) can he still play? His numbers in Arizona look solid, but it’s hard to be sure what that means
Not much available amongst free agents in the RD bin. Stralman, P.K. and Klingberg with any track at all. Stralman is the only one that is even a question but I don’t think he is really a question. 😉
Haha, for which reason(s)?
I’m just trying to figure out a way to keep all of Yamamoto, Foegele and Puljujarvi.
I think he had a bit of a bounce-back year this year but I haven’t checked. The problem is he’s a smaller Dman (Holly will be looking for the opposite I would think), who is 35 and has played big minutes in his career. Eventually he’s going to Vlasic. He certainly has great past and pedigree, and would make a good mentor, but I’d be concerned about his future.
I could be convinced to go a one year deal if he’s a workout freak, feels great, and still skates as well as he used to, and is willing to accept a low AAV, maybe…
For sure you wouldn’t be signing the guy for term, and it could only make sense if the AAV was low.
By number (relative to team) he did have quite a strong year, and he played over 21 minutes a night for them. Tough to know exactly what that means on the Coyotes (though folks are pining for Chychrun with basically the same 5v5 on ice numbers and usage). I checked a couple of ‘season in review’ articles from Coyotes blogs and they thought Stralman had a good year too, and hoped he re-signs there.
In terms of Vlasic-ing, Stralman is actually about 6 months older than Vlasic. So, maybe he won’t Vlasic? (how many years ago did Vlasic Vlasic, anyway? it was a few).
And it’s true Stralman is a smaller D, but so is the guy he’d be replacing, so he wouldn’t be making the team smaller. And I’m not so sure Holland is as keyed on size (and truculence) as the average fan. I think he has ‘mobile, can pass, good at hockey’ a shade higher, and ‘size, physicality, truculence’ a shade lower, than most. He clearly does value it, but a little bit less I think. Keith and Russell out for Broberg/Samorukov/Niemalainen does also makes the team bigger, if not tougher.
Anyway, just looking for possible ways to clear cap for help in other areas.
I’m looking at size largely from a wear and tear aspect, which is what I think got to Vlasic. I also think if Holland is okay with small, he’ll stick with Barrie, but if he moves Barrie he will be looking for balanced size on D.
Smaller D tend to hold up better as they age, don’t they? For sure Stralman has a lot of miles on him though.
I agree with that take in theory, but I was looking for a way to clear $2.5-$3.0M in cap while still having a serviceable 3RD. Stralman looks to me like that, though he’s clearly far from perfect.
But if Holland does replace Barrie with anyone for under $2M, it’s very unlikely he’s going to get exactly what he wants in that replacement.
Well, I would rather have Barrie than a 35 year old Stralman and give up Foegele for a cheaper option. I think we lose less that way if Holland can’t find a way to sign all three RFA’s.
But what I really think is that Puljujarvi is gone by September if not this coming week. Pulling him back from the brink once as a kid was good work. By now it is obvious to everybody that it is not working for either side, no?
Bob and Spec made it seem today, at least to my ears, that it was only a matter of time.
Yeah, I think Holland has had enough; I know I would have. You can’t have that kind of distraction on the team going into a season where you have big ambitions. You need everybody pulling in the same direction and we can speculate all we want about why it went wrong but it sure sounds like it is over. Too bad.
Holland is going to school J.P’s agent like the —— he is.
I’d be surprised. Not really his style imo.
Yeah no question Barrie > Stralman.
You mean Foegele and Puljujarvi traded here? That’s probably the most likely, so that the team can actually fill out the roster with guys making more than 800k.
The appeal of moving Barrie is that it could open up enough that that you don’t need to move either forward. But yeah, if one of them is moving regardless, then Foegele going also probably does make the most sense.
Not many left in free agency but some teams, I mentioned Carolina’s 5 earlier, have a surplus of RHD especially LAK.
Doughty
Walker
Durzi
Roy
Spence
Grans
Clarke
I would imagine they would be open to a trade for picks…lord knows they don’t need any forward prospects.
Yeah.
LA is so deep, they don’t really need anything.
I hear they’re cancelling the season next year and just handing them the Cup.
Guess what?
Nobody here cares about LA.
Dummy up. The Oilers are better than whichever GM’s balls you happen to be licking at the moment.
Deal with it.
Let’s sign Ryan Murray could be a nice value contract. Could help provide cover in 2nd or third pairing?
Colorado didn’t re-sign him but just signed Brad Hunt to a 2 year contract.
That kind of says it all, doesn’t it.
I’ve been thinking about the Hunt signing all day.
It only makes sense if Colorado is planning to move Girard and Hunt is an emergency back up replacement.
I suspect they are making room for Kadri.
That makes sense. Any idea where they move Girard?
No idea…but there are likely 20 teams that could use him.
Let’s bring back Yak on a PTO.
We can blame our organization for drafting Yak, but let’s be honest, Murray hasn’t had much of a career either. Even if Katz hadn’t apparently overruled Tambellini, we’d still have ended up with a third-pairing D-man whose career appears to be over in his 20s.
It was just a terribly weak draft, and very few teams ended up with a good player from that draft. Andreas Athanasiou is the 7th-leading goal scorer from that draft. ‘Nuff said.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-sign-reid-schaefer-to-entry-level-contract/c-335000268
Who says it’s a slow news day. Congrats to Reid on signing his ELC! Kenny did not waste any time on this one.
Every Flame fan saying farewell to Gaudreau…..
I would expect him to be boo’d in Calgary until he retires.
I expect he will need body guards every time the team plays there. 😉
133 comments so far today….Randle has 28 of them.
Slow news day. I had to take my dog to the park. I’ll try and pick up the pace.
29
12.6 posts/60.
Good work rate. 😀
Thanks Tarkus! It’s above my seasonal average.
And thanks for sticking to quantitative analysis and not delving into qualitative analysis. 🙂
Why Mulroney and not Leno?
30
A play on another poster who has a Prime Minister and a body part in his username.Except I am a true Oiler fan and not an old troll…:)
HA! I love it.
Not many word play references get by old Randle, but that one did!
A double M and everything. That’s top shelf “handle-ism” right there.
Well done. 🙂
Damn…now you’ve made me lose count.
31? 32?
T-man’s Tarface! -).
OP is out of the country on a travel day so not his fault. 😉
He’s picking up the slack for Homeboy OP who’s been jet setting.
So glad I stopped posting at 5 o’clock to allow for the flood of other posters. 🙂
… wind whistles as a tumbleweed rolls through the frame…
Kenny started his long weekend early.
I’m going to need a lonesome harmonica to go with that, please. The one from Once Upon a Time in the West will do.
I referenced Chris Tanev because he’s a RHD and I like his player type.
But If they decide to tear it down / rebuild, I’d be interested in Rasmus Andersson as well.
I would even over-pay in assets and picks for Andersson. It’s a great contract.
Jason Gregor is a very good interviewer. His interviews with Kane, Campbell and Kulak were top shelf.
Yes, he does his homework for the interview and asks smart, open-ended questions. Doesn’t ramble on or talk about himself like another prominent media member tends to do.
Only a few questions left for Ken Holland this summer.
One of them for me is:
Does Ken Holland move the Klefbom contract to a team like Arizona or Anaheim?
Nope – no point with Smith also on LTIR – also, Yotes wouldn’t want the uninsured contract (which I believe has a high comp this coming year).
.I should follow what you and Redbird say more closely,
My brain is stuck on the idea that the only way for the Oilers to get full relief from Klefbom’s contract is to trade it away.
The contract is essentially cap neutral this season so no cap space is gained by trading it away and the benefits of getting out of LTIR completely are likely not available with Smith.
Any particular reason why you think he should do this?
LTIR contracts allow you to exceed the cap, but they prevent you from accruing space you can use at the deadline to acquire rentals.
Not if Smith is also on LTIR which he will be or the whole cap structure is in trouble.
This is true (and they also prohibit the ability to pro rate acquired contracts) – being in LTIR sucks.
At the same time, with Smith destined for full season LTIR, paying to dispose of just Klef does not have any benefit (except to Katz’s pocket book).
https://heavyhockey.com/2022/07/06/moving-klefboms-contract-would-provide-more-cap-savings-than-putting-him-on-ltir/
Holland and his staff have become very adept at getting within a few thousand of the cap. The nominal benefit of moving the contract is not with any asset out.
If Smith wasn’t joining him on LTIR, as mentioned, there would be real benefits for in-season moves but that’s not the case.
Leafs get Jarnkrok. Rats. I really hoped the Oilers could land him. He’s exactly the kind of swedish army knife the Oilers need in their bottom six. I’ve been pining over him for years. haha
4yrs 2.1 million
Weird contract. Why would you commit to this type/skill level of player for 4 years? Dubas does it again!
Its $2 million bucks. Peanuts for a quality 3rd liner that can help on the defensive side and also pick up a few points. I hope Holland can pick up a guy like him this offseason.
The right side of the forward core is pretty thin at the moment. Hoping X-Borg can come in and make an immediate impact, but some insurance would be nice.
He was invisable when it counted glad Wonderboy had no fear!
Re-emerging Oil fan here. It’s interesting to see how opposite UFA frenzy has been for two hated rivals. With Flames beat writer Salim Valji saying, “The past 48 hours have been arguably the darkest in Calgary Flames franchise history.”(1)
Question for the group: can you recommend any good goalie analytics sites or blogs to unpack how to evaluate goaltending in the modern era? Tis voodoo, but I want to understand Campbell. And yes, I read Woodguy’s excellent Twitter thread on the subject.
1 – https://www.tsn.ca/salim-valji-flames-must-learn-lessons-from-gaudreau-exit-as-tkachuk-future-looms-1.1825689
A bit melodramatic. There are numerous examples of UFA’s exiting teams after they fail to win a Cup with the team that drafted them. JG probably planned to leave but held on to the hope that a championship could be accomplished in Cowtown considering the season they all had. If he let it be know prior to July then it would have just been a distraction.
The loss in the BOA was really a kick to their junk for many reasons
Very few so called face of the franchise types walk. Even fewer take a substantial financial hit to move from their current team. The object is normally to move for the same or more money.
Can’t wait to see our PTO’s this year.
I am hoping to see a few 1 year contracts from players needing to prove value for ufa next year.
Kris Versteeg come on down!
Versteeg pulled a Johnny.
I’ve pulled my Johnny; It ain’t so bad.
I would love to pry Chris Tanev out of Calgary; That’s not going to happen.
Who is the Tanev comparable that is possible?
Tanev injury prone he escaped last year but I’ll bet he doesn’t play-in 47 games.
Tanev has missed only 13 games over the past 3 seasons.
For reference, Darnell Nurse has missed 22.
Taney is also turning 33 this year, Nurse 27. Most likely Tanev will miss more games due to injury moving forward, though I wouldn’t say he’s ‘injury prone’ as of yet.
Tanev has 2 years remaining on his contract…Nurse has 8 and comes in at more than twice the price of Tanev.
Any risk on Tanev is comparatively minor.
Just like Keith Tanev Is now exposed to the outside rush Kempe style. As a proud D-man it’s time to call it quits when you get schooled by the Glenn Anderson rush.
Cool, do the previous 3 years for Tanev now
We all know players break down less as they age
Schaefer getting a lot of praise from Nugent-Bowman and Stauffer for his performance this week at development camp.
“Columbus….is …..not Yoko Ono”
“Warren Moon, a polished elite athlete with an arm like a rocket launcher and the other guy who was……not that”
You just think funny. 🙂
Life is so much better for those who think funny.
I hope all your “musings” hit the mark in your household. 😉
#OhDad!
#ThatsFunnyDear
I always wondered what Brian Hall was like as a young person; Now I know.
#MatthewIwanyk 🙂
Dave Jamieson makes a good straight man for you.
A good straight man is the harder job in a comedy duo.
It sounds like he makes things easier for you. (except for the 4 hour thing)
I still miss Hernan. Say hello for us.
Here’s a funny thought… Spector says Columbus doesn’t have the Cap room to resign Laine after getting Gaudreau. Laine to Calgary to make the BOA more interesting? Laine vs Bison King anybody?
I will take Laine’s goals over the Bison King’s grin
Goals that are scored in bunches and, when not on a heater, a fundamentally flawed player with a massive cap hit.
I would much prefer Jesse at the likely cap hit he’ll come with.
I’d rather have McDavid and Draisaitl vs Gaudreau and Laine. Columbus is going nowhere.
I think the D is set. Trade Barrie next off season to pay Bouchard. The rookie D get another year. Need to trade Foegele to sign our rfa’s. Trade deadline is key for us next year.
It does seem that Holland knows what he’s doing; he has definitely earned my trust as a fan. More importantly, he has the trust of every player agent, seemingly. This bodes well for the future.
What do the smarter people in the room think about offloading Foegele and bringing in Stastny on a two-year deal? He has been playing the wing, can easily play C, and is another veteran presence that has shown that he can still produce.
Could be a great value deal for less than Foegele (who can be packaged a number of ways probably).
Just musing here.
Does having Derek Ryan make Stastny one vet too many in the bottom 6? We still need more production down there.
If you can get Stastny for less than Foegele and move Foegele, I think you do it. The issue is that there are too many players similar to Foegele available for free right now. I think the Oilers might be stuck with him and JP for awhile because they are going to cost more in acquisition cost and salary cost than some of the free players (Stastny among them)
Yeah, I don’t actually dislike Foegele. I think he has a lot more hiding in his game (especially if he went away and worked on his shot), but Stastny would offer a much better look for depth. I think he can be had for less than $2.75mil.
I wonder if PK Subban has finally hit the point where he is only getting a PTO.
The fewer moves we make the better in so far as team chemistry! If there is added skill that makes a significant difference fine, otherwise , in my opinion, you don’t do it. Foegele brings size and should have a better year as he is settled in!
Stastnys boots make me think that’s an impossibility on this Oilers roster
I’d rather bring in a guy like Stastny on a trade deadline deal, but only if he’s on a one-year contract and the cost is cheap. The Oilers are in that kind of position now.
They saw me typing and they told me to stop
Quit this pretentious blog and just punch the clock
These days my life, I feel it has no purpose
But late at night the comments swim to the surface
‘Cause on the Al Gore the hockey minds shine
They’re calling at me, come and find your kind
Sometimes I wonder if I’ll tire of the ride
But we can never get away from Lowetide
Posting on Lowetide
angry catcalls rise like mountains beyond mountains
And it becomes such a chore
I need a filter, someone give the option to ignore
I love you.
I know.
— I read this in the same tone and cadence as Lose Yourself:
“my palms were sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy.
He’s nervous but on the surface calm and ready”
Eminem I believe as an aside will be listened to for generations. He’s one of the great ones IMO,
A man who avoided his work
In his truck he would sit, and he’d lurk
In the A/C would hide
And snoop on Lowetide
But being the boss has its perks!
“Mountains Beyond Mountains”
I know right?
You work your ass off, struggle, win some lose some, claw your way up the rugged terrain, and finally crest the peak and Victory?; Only to face another valley and looming granite monster.
It’s not for the faint of heart.
A GM’s job is never done; Team building is a process, not a destination.
The ones who succeed are the one’s who love the process.
#Rodgers&Hammerstein
There never was a balance photo; There never will be.
The closest any man comes to balance is with one hand securely attached to the base and the other to the rim of the cup. And even then it’s fleeting, lasts about 30 seconds and then the process begins anew.
#That’sGrace
The closest I come to balance is when that 3rd drink hits and you’re loving the world
With ya there. I often enjoying tipping the balance. 😉
I always liked this version of Sprawl II (Mountains beyond mountains):
https://vimeo.com/21233978
Thank YOU. Enjoyed that.
I’m going to make a point to see these guys the next time they role through town.
My favorite song by Arcade Fire and a great live version.Unfortunately they have recently broke up.
#$%@…I had a few opportunities to see them and I procrastinated.
The mashup with heart of glass is good too as the songs are so close.
The greatest skill required to be a successful GM is recognizing talent not necessarily talent on the ice but for your management team!
A dystopian take on mountains beyond mountains…trying to escape the ‘burbs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuSbELCNloc
I’m not a big fan of Tyler Benson, but I still see the potential for him to fully adapt his game to a fourth line role. He’s got the tool set; Does he have the mental fortitude and the will?
He doesn’t have the size or the skating ability (much less the speed, which is different than skating ability).
Destined to be an AAAA player as LT would say – though even that fell off at the end of the season.
He should go to Europe, make a bunch of tax-free cash and enjoy life.
I don’t think we know for sure, but we will soon.
He adapted; Came about 50% of the way. Does he have the determination to go the other 50% ?
“For sure” is always too late.
This is a game of risks. You have to choose wisely before everyone else knows “for sure”.
Agreed. This is the part that rarely gets acknowledged in decision making. Knowing ‘for sure’ is the path to perpetual mediocrity.
Improper risk assessment and or lack of a secondary/backup plan is the direct path to unemployment. It is a fine and tenuous line!
With the right moves I feel confident we’re a better team without him;
The time draws nigh.
He doesn’t have the size or the skating for fourth line nor the PK skills due always playing on the top six. I wish the young man well but the reality is it is very difficult to rebuild your game.
I think Philp is going to eat his lunch, give him a wedgie and a pink belly, and then steal his girlfriend.
I need to see more, but he is a prototypical NHL energy forward. Size, reach, speed, battle, awareness, etc. He needs a little pro seasoning too, obviously, but I think there’s a good chance he catches Benson some time this season.
Is this based upon his performance last night in the game or have you been watching him for some time? (Yes, he was impressive in the game last night.)
From last night. And just thinking of him simply in terms of his tools. Like I said, I need to see more to feel any kind of certainty… matching up against a peer group in a contact game would be more helpful. Now he could be JFJ Isbister, and bring zero O to The Show. That I don’t know. But it has been a probem for Benson too, at the top level.
Philp’s a rightie so he and Benson aren’t really competing for the same parking spot…but I can see him passing Benson on the org depth chart. If he PKs well too…
Thanks. I was just curious. As I said I thought he showed well last night also. But then that 3 on 3 can fool a guy, eh?
The Isles as Lou has stated his desire for offence from the backend.
The question is if Lou knows that, despite being good with the puck, Girard struggles without it and $5M is bloated for his overall game?
Yeah, I pretty much discard/discount any offense from that game, other than how are his feet, how are his hands, his awareness, reads, choices, can he carry well head up… basic stuff. Number of goals and assists are almost meaningless.
Agreed. Bakersfield is going to be an interesting follow this season.
Can’t wait!
Philp is, what, 23? He’s on an NHL deal and, if he has a real shot, he should have stood out as top player this past week.
I think he’s got a chance but lots of steps to take. While it’s tough to come in as a rookie pro late in the season, he and Savoie were after-thoughts. Philp was ahead of Savoie on the depth chart and got a bit more opportunity on the few games played but both were under water.
Small sample there but I would expect a steep development curve as a Condor this year.
I’m not quite sure what you consider a steep development curve.
What Benson has to do to remake his game to become an NHL grinder is truly a steep development curve. What Benson has to do to skate as fast, and play as big and heavy as Philp makes that curve steeper yet.
Philp doesn’t like he will have to undergo any of that reinvention to my eye. Plus, he has NHL size and NHL speed. He needs to learn the pro game and build pro habits and deal with pro opp, but not a whole lot else. The only question is can he help the puck go in the net at the top level. 4th line O is a low bar. I think he has a good chance to get there.
Well, Philp is essentially the same age as Benson who most have already closed the book on despite being a high end AHL player since he was 20.
Philp was under wanted in 3 AHL games while being sheltered. He needs to show big development from Sept to Jan to April this season – getting used to the pro game and men, etc.
He’s a mature prospect who signed in an org that has a team in a position where it needs its roster filled with legit players who can make an impact.
The phrase was really about showing big progression this season from where he was this past spring.
I don’t think his deployment and play after being parachuted onto an unknown team and league was anything other than could be expected really. A team that had also seen a coaching upheaval and was never quite right after that, one might note.
I don’t put a lot of faith in outcome in those three games, like I don’t in last night’s game either. These aren’t baseline events.
I expressly mitigated my statement on those 3 games with reference to it being tough to join a team so late in the season.
I stand by my posts and their meaning and position that, given his age, and where the org is in its compete window, he’ll need to develop as a pro quickly if he’s going to be a player at the NHL level for this org.
He may very well – he’s got some things going for him including a skill set that the team could use. There is a large delta between the CIAU and the AHL let alone the NHL.
Good, so you agree on a year then too. And you agreed on the need to learn the pro game above as his principle development hurdle. And you seem to agree on the toolkit. And you agree the three games don’t tell us a lot.
You seem to think learning the pro game is a steep development curve I guess. I don’t hold the same view. To me the issue will be whether his tools are good enough. Learning the pro game is not particularly difficult. It does take time, largely because it is about adjustment and building and breaking habits, but a season is enough. And if he’s close and just needs an extra twenty games, they’ll give it to him.
And we don’t agree on your last sentence. If league generalities were relevant to this specific, Philp never would’ve been given that contract. He’s a worthy swing of the bat and looks deserving of the opportunity.
I thought you would’ve noticed too that the guy I suggested he might be able to replace is a guy who’s done it himself. 😉
If I had to guess at the org’s thinking, it is to give him a year in the A with maybe a cup of coffee later in the season, and then see if next season he can replace Ryan or whoever plays 4C this year.
Our prospects are finally starting to look like a strength.
Both he and Fanti were inspired acquisitions and broadened the depth in the org nicely.
Next season we lose $3M in dead cap space! Klefbom and Smith will come off the books as well for $6.367M. Not sure if Derek Ryan will be back or not, but that is barely any savings, he’s a value contract right now at $1.2M, but if he gets replaced with an entry-level it still saves around $300k. That’s $9.667M. I could also see the cap going up a bit more as people start getting more comfortable with going to see games. So maybe $11M to 11.5M? Bouchard and Skinner will need new deals but that should be quite doable in that $9.6M (and then some). Both are RFAs, but only Skinner has arbitration rights next summer.
If Skinner has an amazing year, how much do you think he can command as an arb rights RFA? $3.5M? $4.5M?
If Bouchard keeps progressing and gets more responsibility and has an excellent year, how much do you think he can command as an RFA without arb rights? $4.5M? $6M? More?
Do they go 4 years on both of them? That would get Skinner to UFA yes? What about Bouchard? If they don’t buy any UFA years it should be cheaper so that could factor in.
Maybe they can add again next summer. Unfortunately, the James Neal’s $1.917M of dead cap doesn’t disappear until the summer of ’25.
and it doesn’t look like we need to buyout anyone in the near future;)
Being on LTIR, Klef and Smith are effectively not hitting the cap right now. When they fall off next season it won’t open up any cap space (but will have many other benefits).
The cap will only go up by $1M for next season. Revenues have already recovered to a place where 50% of HRR would provide real increases but per the CBA extension the cap doesn’t re-link to HRR until the escrow balance is paid off – projected for the 2024/25 season.
In order for Skinner to warrant anything close to $3.5MM, he’ll need to play the majority of the games, with success. Could happen but that isn’t the plan with Campbell signed.
I expect Bouch will be 60 points plus this season (and it could be more if he takes over PP1 early). We know Holland is live to this cap raise (as he spoke to it). Here is hoping he and Bouch are amenable to an early re-sign before he starts that offensive explosion.
Thanks for all the clarifications. So they have $3M in dead cap coming off, and $1M in extra salary cap. They currently pay Bouchard and Skinner $1.613M. Can they both be signed for 5.613M, maybe $5.9 if we save on Ryan’s replacement being an entry level deal in the $800k or $900k range. Looks to me like one or both of Barrie or Foegele may have to go by then if Skinner and Bouchard do well this year. Or maybe one of Puljujarvi or Yamamoto depending on what they re-sign for (if they re-sign).
We will save about a million with Koekkoek as well. But only if he can be replaced internally
Not really – he’s either on the team as 7D or one of the kids are. Only the one on the roster will hit the cap and that position will need to be filled the following year as well.
D’oh!
I know you keep saying $3M in dead cap is coming off but I don’t see it. Lucic for $750,000 and Sekera for $1,500,000 comes to $2,250,000. Where do you see the the other $750,000?
Bonus overage penalties?
Of course, we will almost assuredly have more next season – Bouch will max his if healthy and Broberg and Holloway have a few Sched A each I think.
Yeah, those will be at least the same next summer.
It is definitely Barrie’s last season on the club as they will need that money next summer for sure.
Oh shit, I dunno… I could have sworn there were 2 retained salaries for $750,000 each when I checked this morning. I can’t think of who I thought it was either. Uggh. How many errors can I make in one post?!
Soooooo… $6.367 M + $0.3 M = 9.667 M?
Time for more coffee I think.
The Klefbom and Smith contracts are already LTIR, so even though they are off the books, it doesn’t mean the team will have those cap dollars to spend — the team is already spending to the cap ceiling. It just means that the Oilers will be able to accrue cap space throughout the season and you can add a larger contract at the trade deadline (prorated). If you are in LTIR you can’t do that. One other minor item: any ELC bonus overages will be carried over and counted against next year’s cap.
And all the cards get tossed in the air when we sign Patrick Kane at the deadline. 🙂
#52Pickup
Trade for.
Don’t see the Oilers having $5M of annual cap space to make that trade at the deadline.
Now, if they weren’t in LTIR, they would accrue and bank some cap space and would also be able to pro-rate the acquired contract. Neither will be available this season
If you knew Kenny like I know Kenny,
Oh Oh Oh what Pal.
Every moment he gets bolder.
#TheresALotWeDontSee
no way Barrie makes year 3 of his deal. good player but redundant. The RFA trio might all need new deals to . lots of cap juggling required
Skinner will still be the backup next year, he’s not getting the raise, Bouchard is. That is primarily where the cap will go.
That would be the plan that Holland bet on. Let’s see how it goes.
The Oilers have 12 players signed for 2023/23 (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nuge, Kane, Foegele, Nurse, Barrie, Ceci, Kulak, Broberg, Campbell) and the dead cap kit from Sekera for a total of $67,030,000. If the cap goes up 1M, then it’s $16,470,000 with 11 players to sign.
Does anyone know where OP is at the moment? I need some clarification!
I just hope he is blessing some rains down there
I’m betting one of the thumbs down is OP!
OP doesn’t vote – the votes are meaningless.
Referring to himself in the 3rd person….. pfttt!
That is sooo Randle.
#JimmySays
You know what? I’m gonna start voting even harder
…in your opinion. 😉
Safe travels back OP!
I hope not. It was a joke. I hope OP is having a blast on his trip.
OP is on the start of a 36 hour journey back home.
Thank you for the wishes though.
You poor soul. Humble it up, Pouzar! Haha.
These days 36 hours is a short trip! Bon voyage
36 hours in the air, 72 hours more in airport security lineups….
I thought it was funny, and OP should too. I’m not saying he was humble braggin’ on purpose, but it may come across that way, haha. I’d say the same thing to my friends if they pointed out that they just happen to be posting from somewhere awesome.
Both Uganda and Rwanda are amazing – for spectacularly different reasons.
As an aside, I’ve now been in the Addis Ababa airport twice and both times there was a scary altercation in the transfer/connection security line. This airport is NUTS!
You no you’re old when the thought of Uganda and Rwanda doesn’t elicit the wanderlust response.
#SendLawyersGunsAndMoney
My wife spent months in Addis a few years back. Loved it. Not without its problems, but she really loved it.
JP had a salary of $1,175,000 last year and generally had a solid (if unspectacular) year followed by abysmal playoffs. The fact that teams worry he is going to cost too much makes me think the market for him still isn’t worth any sort of deal
The fact that the reports are that there is a market for him with cost certainty makes me think he is going to get an offer sheet. Probably Carolina.
After Jesse’s agent thought he was going to outfox Holland a few years back is now getting rode hard by Holland. Holland telling Jesse’s agent that the only way your client is getting traded is by signing a thrifty contract whereby he’s desirable by other teams at the return we are looking for. Holland is on fire this off-season.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Puljujarvi’s agent has an offer sheet ready to be announced.
It gives the other team cost certainty and only costs them a 2nd round pick.
Has Holland ever been offer sheeted? I can’t remember one offhand. Once a G.M offer sheets another G.M your stock ( character) around the other G.M’s seems to take a hit.
Carolina already took the hit. They don’t seem to mind.
Exactly.
What kind of offer do you think Carolina would tender?
They are getting tight for money with Necas & Bear waiting for contracts but they do have Gardiner’s LTIR money to play with if they think he is done. Since it has to be known by now that Puljujarvi would prefer to play anywhere other than Edmonton it would probably not take more than $3M to have Holland thinking about reluctantly walking away.
Is there still a trade to be made for Necas? Exchanging contract problems?
Yeah…I was also thinking in the $3 million range or perhaps $3.5 million to ensure they get the player.
I don’t think Bear will factor into their decisions as they already gave him permission to talk to other teams and the acquisition of Burns makes him even more redundant….they have 5RD at the moment.
If they are interested in Jesse on an offer sheet it would make more sense to trade Necas for a draft pick and get an asset.
If they offer sheet Jesse, they give up a draft pick. Trading Necas for a pick nets the same result.
Waddell has already said Gardiner is fully recovered and expected in camp. So no cap space relief anticipated for him.
Thanks. I missed that. I think that scrubs Carolina then for an offer sheet.
If he doesn’t file for arb, he’s probably get an assurance of an offer sheet he’s amenable to. If he files, it shields him from an OS.
We’ll know in the next 48 hrs if that’s likely, I think. That’s the arbitration filing deadline (5pm ET on the 17th). Either an offer sheet happens before then, or he files (neither I guess is also a possibility, but then we can infer Puljujarvi is seeking an offer sheet at least).
Yup. It will all be clear soon enough. Still hoping Holland can persuade him to sign. It doesn’t look good but then Kane & Kulak didn’t look good either.
Yes, really pleased that Kane and Kulak are back, and on very nice deals.
Holland did also convince Puljujarvi to return the last time, and it looked much worse then than now. Though if the player remains unhappy with his lot that isn’t a great sign.
So who are the bargain isle pickups that fill need?
And I do wonder if they move Foelgele since you could probably get Aston-Reece for half his price and they do the same thing except Aston-Reece hits everything and kills penalties.
They do need a top 9 RW. Would Kessel come for cheap, around $2 mil? Neidereiter for $3 mill? Do you need to move Barrie to fit him in?
Move Foegele and sign Aston-Reece for half his price.
Move Barrie and sign Subban for half his price.
Sign Neidereiter for $3 mill or less or Kessel for $2 mill or so.
Bring back Sam Gagner!!!!
Evan Rodrigues is my main target now. Hopefully can entice him him for a couple yrs at 2M or less but not likely after the season he just had. RH, can play with skill or the bottom 6, fast, good hands, kills penalties and can play C or wing.
“Look for a couple of $1 million adds in the extra D, RHC and right-wing slots.”
Agreed.
Exactly what are we looking for from these adds? What role would they play? What deficiencies are we looking to cover.
We talk about them like they are generic deck chairs; Are we not more strategic than that?
Toronto seems to do very well in this space. I thnk they are more strategic than we are, but I’m not sure what that looks like.
Personally, I like the “take a shot on an aging vet” strategy. Again, not sure on the best way to analyse this.
Hard nose, 10 minutes a night of sustained energy, above average hockey intelligence, Faceoff %, plays with an edge, chip and chase expertise, total commitment, pride, determination, veteran savvy.
So more Andrew Cogliano than Phil Kessell
— See below: sounds like a Lucic they are after. 10 goals 12 minutes 4th line…In hindsight it’s too bad we didn’t get a useful player back. A lot of cap was spent still being spent on Neal Lucic buyout etc…Didn’t cost us a Cup or anything though…
If you’re targeting a 10minute a night, fourth liner who can bring the fury, he is worth considering imo..Not kidding.
Not sure how well he does away from Sutter’s systems.
Staple JP to his hip and hope something rubs off.
— I wonder how much Lucic might consider retiring now that he got his $3mm bonus. Like Keith he’d be playing the season for $1mm.
— Wouldn’t be the same magnitude as Keith but that $750k we are holding would be a nice surprise. Like Keith there are a lot of reasons for the player amd Flames organization that make it appealing.
— I’m assuming that his retirement would mean there isnt a recapture for the Oilers. If so that would be bad…
There is no recapture on Lucic. His wasn’t the type of contract Gary went after.
Elliotte Friedman mentioned yesterday (I think with Bob but I didn’t hear it) teams are interested in Jesse Puljujarvi but want cost certainty.
I did actually listen to this (as I did my last Uganda morning deck workout with about 15 monkeys playing meters away) and I believe Friedman said that its not correct to say there is “no market” – there is a market and teams are interested but want to send cap back – of course, due to the arb risk and, as you say, some cap certainty.
I look for Jeese to file for arb, shielding himself from offer sheets, sign during the summer and come to camp and then have a great season for the Oil!
What songs did they play? I know Davy, Michael, Peter and Micky but who were the other 11?
Hope you are having a great time there. Come back refreshed and ready to post!
Working on it now – leaving Entebbe (taxiing as I type) on my way to Ethiopia – leg 1.
Refreshed I won’t be – this was a WILD 3 weeks across these two counties. Uganda is the definition of developing nation and this trip was about engrossing in the culture and experiencing it more than luxury.
I’ve been to many counties including 3rd world developing counties but the things I saw and did and experienced on this trip are life altering.
“I’ve been to many counties including 3rd world developing counties but the things I saw and did and experienced on this trip are life altering.”
I can’t help but take this as low key confession to you killing someone.
Or spooning nude with a stranger at night to keep warm.
Sounds like you’re on a Brad Pitt type of adventure; You sure it wasn’t 12 monkeys?
— I wouldn’t be surprised to see him retire either…. Would be a nice gift for us as well…
Shirtless pics?
Thanks for the write-up, Al, good stuff. I’m still overseas in Africa until the weekend so didn’t get to see the steam.
Too bad Bourgault and Holloway didn’t get to skate at camp – of course, those two would probably stand-out above the rest (or they would have been expected too).
I’m glad to read that you thought Max Warner stood out – Gregor mentioned him being noticeable earlier in the week and, from my recollection, his offence spiked in the 2nd half and WHL playoffs this past season – he’s one I’ve got my eye on.
Savoie mentioned he had a bug that kept him off the ice – good to see he was able to get in to the game.
Philp and Savoie each got a cup of coffee in the AHL – a very small cup but both likely had an eye-opening experience as they were clearly still in University and NCAA mode and not really “in the play” – Savoie in particular. That cup of coffee, and being around the pros for a stretch, should prove invaluable as they head in to off-season training. Philp is older so he’ll probably be able to “compete” more consistently but I do see these two as having up and down seasons in the AHL.
No surprise to me that Kesselring stood out – I thought he showed real in-season development and starting to show some puck moving confidence in the 2nd half.
Kielb was a revelation when he got called up to the Condors – he may be the next guy to earn an NHL deal if he can continue that progression.