The Edmonton Oilers have been graduating forwards at an increased rate in recent seasons, and with any luck the trend will continue. Last season in Bakersfield, Dylan Holloway made his pro debut and finished the regular season with a flourish. Looking at Eric Rodgers’ even strength goal shares and estimated offensive output, the last several years have been a combination of encouraging and baffling. Here’s the story, year by year.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Predicting Kailer Yamamoto’s Oilers goal total in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
This covers all of the Bakersfield seasons, beginning in 2015-16. I’m including the goal differentials at even strength, and estimated points-per-60 for all disciplines. That’s even strength, power play and penalty kill. So a player who does much PK work, very little power play and significant even strength minutes would be at a disadvantage. Nothing’s perfect, and the best players usually get the power-play time, so I left Eric’s numbers alone. They are an excellent reflection of each player’s performance in a season, but we acknowledge the limitations.
Any forward over 50 percent in goal differential (even strength) or above 2.00 per 60 in scoring would be considered to be a solid prospect. I didn’t include anyone over 25, and in truth players who make it are delivering in their entry (20-22 years old) contracts. The baffling part? Some of these men delivered and still didn’t get a chance. We’ll call them the “worries over foot speed” all-stars. Here we go.
CONDORS 2015-16 FORWARDS
In many ways, this is the most fascinating of the Bakersfield seasons. Tyler Pitlick (325 NHL games) was finally NHL ready but still didn’t play a full AHL season. Jujhar Khaira (285 NHL games) showed great offensive improvement in his second AHL season and emerged as a real prospect in 2015-16.
The rest of the Condors forwards were either shy offensively, poor at even strength goal differential, or both. Kyle Platzer had some offensive success but was getting slayed in even strength goals. It would take him to the end of his entry deal to arrive at 50 percent goal share. Anton Slepyshev (102 NHL games) showed offensive ability but the on-ice goal percentage was poor. Josh Currie (22 NHL games) began his journey on an AHL only contract and looked responsible by 2015-16. Marco Roy, a second-round pick, also looked responsible at age 20 but never did get that NHL deal. Bogdan Yakimov (one NHL game) should have stayed in North America.
A quick note on Mitchell Moroz, Kale Kessy and Braden Christoffer. All three men were procured to provide physical play while also (hopefully) delivering enough offense to stay in the lineup. This is confirmation the team was aiming too low in terms of offense. The organization would move away from shy offensive forwards with size as the decade wore along.
CONDORS 2016-17 FORWARDS
The points-60 is using all game states and based on estimated ice time. Rodgers uses time honored estimates by adding playing time based on total on-ice goals. So, a player with high event totals (Josh Currie) is estimated to have played more minutes.
The big name here is Jesse Puljujarvi (259 NHL games), who was a quality scorer at 18 in a very good league and damn near sawed off the older, stronger opposition at even strength. Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira were both NHL-ready with the rest of the group trying to find some traction. Only Josh Currie and Patrick Russell (59) would see the NHL from the group below the top three names.
CONDORS 2017-18 FORWARDS
All of the names from 2017-18 were past their entry deals, and therefore not likely to have long NHL careers. I always liked Kyle Platzer, who saw very little power-play time, but he was unable to deliver sustained offense. He emerged as a solid forward in Finland’s Liiga. Ty Rattie (99 NHL games) would land a job with the Oilers at the end of this season, but he couldn’t deliver in a feature role. His AHL numbers telegraphed the NHL outcome that would follow. Joe Gambardella (15) did make the NHL for a few weeks.
CONDORS 2018-19 FORWARDS
Jesse Puljujarvi only played four games in the AHL at 20, I included him to show what might have been if he and Woodcroft had more time. Kailer Yamamoto (186 NHL games) had a strong debut as well, both men delivering strong goal share at a young age.
Tyler Benson (36), Cooper Marody (7) and Cameron Hebig were a hit as a line early in the year, and Joe Gambardella played well. Patrick Russell spiked year over year and did play some NHL games during this season. Dave Gust had a couple of good seasons but didn’t get a look with Edmonton. Tyler Vesel was an early example of analytics applied to the draft. He is a productive player in Sweden now.
CONDORS 2019-20 FORWARDS
Cooper Marody was hurt, so he and Benson took a big step backward in both goal share and points-60 estimates. I think this season had an impact on both men being overlooked for an NHL chance. Ryan McLeod (81 NHL games) had a terrific AHL debut, that foot speed works on offense and defense. Kailer Yamamoto struggled in EV goal differential but scored well enough. Kirill Maksimov, a strong junior scorer, struggled in the AHL.
CONDORS 2020-21 FORWARDS
This is the short season against fewer teams, so it’s difficult to trust these numbers. Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson played well, and Ryan McLeod improved year over year. Raphael Lavoie was over 50 percent in possession and posted an estimated points-60 that ranked with the best prospects on the team, but it was in just 19 games. A nice start, but he would need to show growth in year two. James Hamblin’s speed got him noticed.
CONDORS 2021-22 FORWARDS
Benson got his NHL chance but couldn’t deliver enough offensively. Back at base, he remains a productive AHL player. Ditto Cooper Marody, who also got a (brief) NHL look and found a new team during the summer. Raphael Lavoie’s numbers were down from his (short) AHL debut, owing at least a little to his streaky nature. Hamblin had a nice uptick in goal share, looks shy offensively. Dylan Holloway (1 NHL game) delivered about the same numbers as Ryan McLeod age 20, I’m not sure if the Oilers would consider that enough offense but it was a short season coming off an injury.
THE AHL STORY FROM BAKERSFIELD
- Played as teenagers, should have been elsewhere: Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. It was obvious at the time, and looking back there’s no evidence these two players were in the right spot. JP should have been in Finland, Yamamoto back in junior. Both men are now productive players in the NHL.
- Players who spiked at 20: This is an ideal age to blossom if you’re in the AHL, the Oilers saw it happen with Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway. I didn’t include JP or KY as we’ve already covered them. McLeod and Holloway have speed, their path to the NHL and success is far more likely.
- Players who spiked at 21: Jujhar Khaira, Cooper Marody and James Hamblin all delivered enough to be considered possible NHL solutions.
- Players who spiked at 22: Anton Slepyshev is the only counter, he would be over 400 NHL games by now (in my opinion) if he’d stayed. He would have needed to get better at passing the puck, though.
- Players who spiked at 23: Tyler Pitlick showed signs all down the line, but this was the year he was healthy enough to play one half of a season and deliver on all counts. Joe Gambardella also gets a mention here.
- Players who spiked after 23: No one who spent years in the NHL emerged.
NEW for The Athletic: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
https://theathletic.com/3504591/2022/08/13/xavier-bourgault-oilers-prospects-bakersfield-condors/
Must feel like Groundhog Day for Cooper Marody.
He is the definition of “worries over foot speed” all stars.
Happy birthday, Jujhar Khaira. He is 28 today. I hope he has recovered from his season-ending back surgery and that he is fit to play hockey this fall. I have always loved this player. I love underdogs. He is approaching 300 games played in the NHL. He is a hockey success story.
Agreed. For anyone who may potentially leaving their career to injury, I hope everything is 100% when he puts up the pro hockey boots.
Another GREAT Title today.
In that first chart, Eric’s numbers line up exceptionally well with reality for me.
The most significant column in that regard……. AGE.
24, 23, 22, 21,20
Marody is past his window at 24
Benson is approaching the window closing at 23
Hamblin the window is midway at 22
Lavoie the window is 2/5ths of the way open at 21
Holloway the window just opened at 20
This edition of the Oilers is missing some truculence.
There are “frustrating to play against” – Jesse, Kailer, Zach, Cece, Holloway, Foegele…
There are Lady Byng “ish” players – Connor, Leon, DR, McLeod, Barrie, Bouchard
There are two nasty to play against – Kane, Nurse.
Brett Ritiche or Jake Virtanen and (OP mentioned) Scott Mayfair would add dimension to this team.
I understand your slotting on these players, but I don’t think Connor and Leon fall totally into the Lady Byng “ish” category of players. Leon especially can be sneaky dirty when he gets riled up.
I wouldn’t call Leon “Lady Byng” material. He’s a little dirty and takes numbers. I loved the reverse hit he’s added to his arsenal lately.
Honestly with how sneaky dirty and aggressive Leon can occasionally get, I think about whether he might go into “nasty” territory.
Leon loves to slash.
Hard pass on Virtanen!
I consider it a long-shot but, if you told me today that Hamblin played games for the Oilers in the 2022/23 season, I wouldn’t be shocked.
This is a type of player coaches sometimes love – he gives it 100% on every shift, has a motor and a work ethic and can play multiple roles and up and down the lineup.
All three game-states for Hamblin in the AHL and all three forward positions – he’s “quick and tenacious” in a Yamamoto type way.
He sounds like Liam Reddox
Looking at Lavoie vs. Holloway and last year’s numbers show that, while a great exercise, and I thank LT for his work, its informative but there is MUCH more to the story.
Dylan Holloway was a massively more impactful AHL player than Raphael Lavoie last season – Holloway impacting the game shift to shift. Lavoie did have some good moments, and one great heater, but for those that watched its clear which player was more impactful and closer to NHL ready, right?
Sure but the numbers only care about the numbers.
This is true and that is why the numbers can often only be taken so far and provide only so much information – it is an informative and educational exercise. Even to see some of the discrepancies between number and eye test and some surprising numbers (both ways) from over the years is interesting.
The numbers give you a quantitative base line to work from that while not perfect is preferable to seen him good! Data is always subject to quality of interpretation . Many times the scoring numbers indicated that a player the Oilers drafted was not to minimum scoring required for reasonable expectation to become an NHL player.The numbers were discounted and the player drafted with washout results. This is at best case poor management of draft choices and worst case incompetence!
That’s kind of the whole point.
The discrepancies between eye and number are the interesting cases where maybe you can learn something.
Is the eye overrating Holloway? Underrating Lavoie?
Yesterday you told us your eye said Niemalainen >> Desharnais with the puck. But the numbers say Desharnais >> Niemalainen.
I don’t know which one is correct in each case, but I strongly suspect that both eye and number something important to say on those cases where they don’t agree.
I still remain flummoxed by the coach’s usage of Krill Maksimov. He did come out of junior with a pedigree for 2-way play and a strong defensive game but he was an offensive player, a shooter. His best skill was his insane shot from the Ovie spot on the PP but, yes, essentially no PP time for this guy and he was asked to play bottom six and PK from game 1 as a pro.
Jay Woodcroft relied on his veterans as an AHL coach.
But the young shooting talents still have to develop the rest of their game and earn some of their cherry offensive usage numbers don’t they? That’s a lot of what the AHL coach has to focus on with the players who have one main talent and are a little short on other areas.. If u give the player the easy offensive time while they have much to work on while away from the puck, they can often never get motivated enough to do this and have trouble breaking out of less productive habits. They can sometimes remain focused on getting their one main talent of a shot off .. how the player is developing as pro and accepts his assignments and improves will often dictate how he is viewed by the coaches. And progress usually means a player would get chances up the offensive ladder under Woodie. There have been many players that have had their chance to go up the ladder .. With Krill there must be something the coaching staff isn’t ready to accept that the usual eye test isn’t grabbing..
I would suggest Woodcroft chose the best players available with an eye for development. He favoured McLeod among the rookies and Maksimov was fighting with Ryan Kuffner, Jakub Stukel and even Beau Starrett a little for playing time. AHL coaches have to worry about the veteran-non veteran ratio, and I think Maksimov didn’t give Woodcroft enough reasons to play him.
By the way, you might think I’m picking on you this weekend, but I’m really just enjoying the conversation.
Yes, both of you make good points about the yongster needing to work and earn more opportunities. I would suggest that being an every day PK guy from day one and playing a bottom six role (with top six pedigree) is a good start but, of course, I don’t know what Krill may or may not have being doing vis-a-vis the coach’s direction.
Nope, no worries at all – I am here for the conversation and I know I have many minority and dissenting opinions
Hey OP. I’ve been reading this blog for some years now, mostly because I enjoy LT’s radio, writing, take on the numbers, and he seems like a very sensible man. The second biggest reason is I enjoy your knowledge OP on so many of the topics.. same on the athletic blog. Your different views and takes of the players results be they numbers or by eye .. also the great Bakersfield insights and news, although I think this year I’m going to watch as well. I have enjoyed reading the great convos, or derailments in some cases on here, and I really enjoy the conversations. It’s only the last couple weeks I figured I’d join the fun and comment a time or two.. my comments are based on much less insite, so your comments and storehouses of knowledge are much appreciated!
Its nice to see McLeod show higher as a rookie pro than I would have guessed – in particular because he did see regular PK time as rookie (and not much PP time).
Ken Hitchock’s arrogant presumption that he “could fix” Jesse Puljujarvi, and forced his re-call after 4 AHL games, hurts this franchise.
Kailer Yamamoto was ELITE at the AHL level in 2019. He P/60 looks good but he was even better – he did that with middle six AHL linemates.
EDIT: Sorry, the statement above was re: the 2018/19 season – in was 2019/20 where Kailer was elite.
Again, that season as a Condor by Jesse Puljujarvi doesn’t get close to enough talk. I believe it was 27P in 38 and that P/60 (all) well over 2 as LT shows – to do that, as an 18-year old rookie, the youngest player in North American pro hockey, that was sensational and Jesse should have been the talk of town coming in to camp in September.
I gotta say, those are some God-class Plus-minuses!
Allright, its time.
I like Tyson Barrie, as a person, a person in the dressing room (from accounts) and a player. We know the reasons why he made available in a trade.
Its time for the Barrie for Mayfield trade. When the Isles send Varlamov to Vegas, they will be flush with cap space (and, after the flames send away good cap to sign the 32 year old Kadri to his anchor retirement contract of $7.5MM X 7 years after the clear outlier of an offensive season – and he returns to be a 55 player, while regressing), they will be more apt to spend it.
Might as well add Foegele and Keifer Bellows to the trade as well.
Barrie and Foegele and potentially a pick out, Mayfield, Bellows and Rodrigues in.
It takes two to tango … there is no evidence that the Isles are remotely interested in trading Mayfield.-
If they were interested in a Barrie type of player, they likely would have been in on Klingberg.
More expensive but no assets out.
Do we know they weren’t?
And even if they weren’t, Barrie is $2.5M cheaper, has had better GF/GA numbers, and has scored more over most performance window you can look at.
Barrie has played for 3 of the most high scoring teams in the league while Klingberg was playing for a button down defensive team.
With the coaching change in Dallas, expect Heiskanen’s offence to spike.
There is evidence that they’d be interested in Barrie given their GM’s express words about acquiring more offence for their back-end.
This does not mean that Lou L. would be amendable to this type of trade but we don’t know that he isn’t.
Mayfied is one year until UFA – we don’t know what the Isles preferred (and potential) path forward is in that regard.
I sort of want to see Broberg and Barrie in a soft minutes role. (I am getting soft in my Kassian-free world).
I don’t think the Oilers trade for a bruiser type D until they see what Desharnais or Samorukov can do. The solution may be in house. i.e. I think the Oilers are comfortable with the D going into the season, and will make moves in-season or at the deadline when they know what they need.
Foegele is fair value for his contract, but hopefully he is the guy that gets traded.
But it is probably Jesse that is saying goodbye.
They’ll either move Foegele (without a sweetener needed) or run a 20 man roster … btw, there will be several teams running 20 man rosters this season due to how tight the cap is this season.
Management and the players like having Barrie … he’s not going anywhere. And Holland is not going to trade Jesse until his trade value is at a maximum … Jesse will spend the whole season with the Oilers, put up some big numbers and then get moved next off season for maximum return, and sign a big contract with another team.
If they don’t even have cap space for one extra skater, as soon as one injury occurs, unless its so serious that it warrants LTIR, the team is now playing with less than a full lineup……
Under the emergency rules, they’d be able to call up an $850K or less player to fill……. My goodness, imagine 2-3 injuries at once, which happens every season….
No to mention, waiving the likes of Samorukov (in addition to Ryan and Shore and maybe Janmark, etc., etc.).
It doesn’t seem plausible in the least, at least to me.
99% sure the team needs to play one game short of 18 skaters before they’re even eligible for the emergency call-up too.
(Goalies being the exception, which is why Skinner was called up under emergency conditions a couple of times last season).
Yes, that’s what i meant in my posts – play a game short and then can back-fill with emergency call-ups at $850K or less.
They can make an emergency call-up for that first game but don’t get cap relief (and don’t until they play a game short).
I don’t want to move Barrie – I also don’t want to move Foegele and I won’t want to move Jesse.
Of course, someone has to move.
Any move of Jesse will simply down-grade the on-ice product.
Any move of Foegele likely down-grades the on-ice product but there is a chance that Holloway just “fills the gap” – maybe even more impactful – that’s only $2MM of cap space though which may not be enough unless they run 21.
Any move of Barrie likely down-grades but the Barrie for Mayfield MAY not given Mayfield is an impactful player and adds a factor.
As far as “blocking” Sammy or Deharnais vis-a-vis skillset, he’s only signed for one more year.
Something has to give at some point – I’m not in love with any of it.
Trading a right winger is counterproductive. As soon as you trade a right winger you need a right winger! Hyman isn’t the answer because if the coaching staff thought he was he would have been given time on the right side. Two players that are moveable without back fill are Foegele and Barrie with Barrie holding the most value.
I agree about the RW depth and would posit that they need another RW right now, today – I see Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Ryan, ????
How could they trade Barrie without back-fill? Right now the 4th right shot D on the depth chart is Vincent Deharnais……
I wish. The islanders don’t currently have the cap space for Barrie, as they still need to resign Dobson.
Well, they have $11MM of cap space but, yes, they need to re-sign Dobson, Romanov and Bellows (which will take them to 22 players).
They can sign all three and acquire Barrie was they don’t need to be cap compliant until October, like the Oilers, and are well below the 10%.
I did mention Varlamov to Vegas in the original post…..
If Lou signs Kadri, which is still a strong possibility, then it seems highly unlikely he would want to increase his defense budget by another $3 million.
The initial post mentions (a) Kadri signing elsewhere and (b) Varlamov to the Knights.
Feel free to skip my comments below from ‘Victoria Oil’s European Vacation’ (non-Chevy Chase version). Randle was kind enough to take an interest a couple days ago in my trip to Vienna and suggested that I share some observations (perhaps to give him something to contemplate as he eats his second breakfast 😀).
– Vienna is our 3rd stop in Europe (after London and Dubrovnik) and surprisingly, the least expensive. The Euro is pretty cheap at the moment.
– The city is an impressive mix of old and new. If you like museums, palaces, opera and classical music, you will love it here. If not, there is still a lot to offer. A few days ago, Vienna was ranked as the most liveable city in the world. However, Calgary was ranked T3, so best to take the survey with a grain of salt. That said, it is easy to see the appeal of the city as it is very civilized, super clean and has very efficient public transport system.
– This is my 2nd trip to Vienna. The first was in the 80’s when I was poor, young and naive. My takeaway then was how impressive the architecture was. That is still my impression today as one would be hard pressed to find a similar sized city (Vienna is 2+ million, but is not crowded and feels smaller than that) with as many 17th/18th/19th century buildings with beautiful and intricate architectural details. There are a few modern buildings in the city center that feel a bit out of place, however.
– Bratislava, Slovakia is an hour away and makes for a great day trip. It is an uber-charming and underrated city and the hometown of the Stasnys.
– Here for a couple more days, then a quick stop back in London and then home.
BenStelterForever
I always have wanted to visit Pardubice, see Hemsky’s home town. If WJC ever go back to Czech Republic I will do so!
Go to Trzesniewski while you’re in Vienna! You can get like 40 varieties of tiny sandwich and every one of them is the best sandwich you’ve ever had. It’s right near Stephansplatz so you can walk up to top of the cathedral after and that should make you hungry enough to go back for more sandwiches.
Thanks Durag. Will try to check it out.
More sandwiches?
You mean in Austria there is 2nd lunch?
Be still my beating heart!
Have you ever been to Prague?
In my estimation, the crown jewel of Central Europe.
I picked up a Hemsky marushka doll there.
Little Horcoff, Gagner and other figures inside.
We spent 4 nights in Prague this spring after a 14 day river cruise. It is now my favourite European city and should be on everyone’s visit list!!
That’s so great. We did a trip before Covid that included Prague, Vienna & Dubrovnik and it was amazing. Prague had been at the top of my bucket list for years, but it turned out to be my least favourite of the 3 – perhaps too much anticipation. I was surprised I liked Vienna more and as much as I did & can’t wait to go back. Dubrovnik is one of my favourite cities anywhere. It’s an onion – you could walk the old city in a day and say “oh that was cool”, but the more time we spent in the nooks and crannies the more we discovered. If you ever have the chance to go sailing in Croatia it will be one of the best holidays you’ll have ever had
Was supposed to go to Prague in 2020…but Covid. Didn’t work out this time but still high on my bucket list.
Do you still keep it under your pillow?
Right next to my Kevin Lowe voodoo doll.
Apologize for talking with my mouth full 🙂
Awesome. Thanks for the update VO. Certainly sounds like an interesting part of the world, especially for an old guy like me. I would plan to see some concerts and travel the 2.5 hours to Salzburg to do the Family Von Trapp day tour.
Enjoy the sandwiches!….twice if you’re so inclined 🙂
I quite enjoyed LT’s write up this morning, very well done.
But in these dog days of summer the hockey news is a bit slow. I for one would really enjoy hearing about holidays to other parts of the world.
Awesome post – travelling is THE BEST!
Praugue is indeed a fantastic city – one of my favorities in Europe that I’ve been to but I can’t say its number 1 – Jersualem, Berlin, Split, Istanbul, Naxos (not a city but in Europe) – I can make an argument for all.
I’m about 3 weeks back from 3 weeks in Africa – mostly Uganda. Out of all my travels through the years, while near the top of the list for epic and amazing, this was also by far the most challenging travel adventure we’ve been on. I was VERY excited to be back home.
Now: itching to get back out there. The wife is riding a moped (49 cc) from the desert in Moroco to Marakesh in October so I’ve got to wait for Israel, Egypt and Jordan in May (likely) – of course, some smaller/shorter ventures before then but nothing substantial.
Kailer did not play in the AHL until he was 20 years old, so not a teenager. With his September birthday, like Bouchard, Bourgault and Holloway, he was eligible to go the AHL in his draft +2. Considering Yamamoto made $425,000 playing for both the Oilers and the Condors that year, I think he was pretty happy to not go back to juniors.
If the Oilers told him he’d have to go back to juniors that season, I doubt he’d still want to be with the Oilers right now if he had the choice. I think not a lot of first round picks with late birthdays go back to Juniors in their draft +2.
Hockey db has him at 19, all ages are via that site. As for where he’d rather play, I’m sure you’re right. That cannot be the main consideration of an NHL team, though.
Hockeydb is not a good source for players age, since they appear to state the players age as of September 1 for the seasons in question, which understates the players age for anyone with a birthday in the fall. So the point still stands, that Yamamoto was already 20 before training camp ended.
And since the team, though mistakenly, thought he was good enough to keep in the NHL until November 10 at the start of that season, its not unreasonable to assume he was good enough to play in the AHL. He was even doing well enough in the AHL, that he was called up in December of that season for a few games when the Oilers had a few injuries.
You didn’t address the point that few AHL eligible players with Yamamoto’s draft pedigree get sent back to juniors in their draft +2. Yamamoto may have been better off not playing in the NHL in those 2 seasons, but I can’t fault the Oilers at all for having him develop in the AHL once he was eligible rather than in juniors.
What I feel the organization was missing is quite simply for a winger to progress he needs a centre that can get him the puck when in a scoring position. Who would Bourgault play with as his centre in the AHL. Bourgault playing on an NHL line with Draisaitl and Nuge both defensively aware might just be the perfect place for him to break into the NHL. Putting him in the AHL might be akin to putting a race horse pulling the Budweiser wagon.
I agree. Who’s the top center going to be this year in Bakersfield? That’s what Morody did with Benson. He was a great AHL skill to play with benson and later Ryan McLeod and they became a great line in the AHL at one point That’s is the training and development you would expect in the AHL, but it hasn’t translated yet for either Benson or Marody for one reason or another .. mostly NHL speed, but McLeod looks like he has surly benefited from the process..
But they still need time to mature and gain confidence and learn to be a pro. That’s AHL.
To various posts in this thread:
1) James Hamblin may be the 1C for the Condors. Maybe Malone. I wonder if they play Holloway as 1C?
2) Marvik Bourque, Jordan Eberle among numerous picks in the 20s that have gone back to junior for draft plus 2 (acknowledging they were a bit younger in their draft plus 2 seasons than Kailer).
3) Would Bougault post some numbers playing with Drai in October? Would that be best for the Oilers? Maybe, maybe not? Drai has not consistently outscored his opposition without McDavid over the years – I’m not sure that the rookie playing top 6 minutes helps outscore right off the bat. Is that best for the player himself. Maybe, maybe not. We know Ken Holland thinks its rare that a player won’t benefit from AHL time.
Draisaitl has not consistantly outscored his opposition because he got the leftover wingers. He will outscore with Hyman and Bourgault.
Hyman was -7 at 5 on 5 last season…….
As much as you think Bourgault can be an effective 2-way winger in the top 6, and as much as that would be amazing for the team and us fans, the situation you present doesn’t seem ideal for a rookie pro – given Hyman’s 5 on 5 results and Drai’s inconsistency outscoring at 5 on 5 away from McDavid…….
A rookie pro could fit one’s definition of “leftover wingers”.
Hyman and Draisaitl are not a good fit by my observation. Nuge Draisaitl and Bourgault on the other hand could be ideal.
Marvin Bourque and Jordan Eberle are irrelevant to the discussion being had. Neither was eligible to be sent to the AHL in their draft +2 season like Yamamoto and any other CHL player drafted with a birthday between Sept 15 and December 31. They either had to make the NHL roster or get sent back to their CHL team. Yamamoto, like most first rounders who were born between September 15 and December 31 become eligible to be put in the AHL at the beginning of their draft + 2 season and usually do not go back to the CHL if they don’t make the NHL roster.
And yes I understand Eberle played some late season games in the AHL in each of his two seasons after the draft, but those were only because the Pats season in the WHL was over. That is also the case with Bourque. That is not the situation that Yamamoto was in for him to play in the AHL.
Some players are ready to jump from the Draft to the NHL look at Debrincat scores 28 as a rookie. What happens to Debrincat if he plays a year in the AHL. Will never know but the AHL is not kind to overskilled jitterbugs that embarrass slow of foot players that are never going to make the NHL. These players will do anything it takes to not get demoted to the ECHL.
I also am of belief that AHL experience is valuable but not if it results in the player not getting the requisite hockey experience at the same time!
You mean Draisaitl and Hyman, not Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins! -).
Nuge Draisaitl and Bourgault. Two defensively sound veterans with a rookie right winger. Hyman with McLeod and JP as third line. This would be my preference for the second and third lines. More balance with playing styles that complement one another.