Since the turn of the century, the Edmonton Oilers have invested some valuable draft picks on the QMJHL. Ales Hemsky is the feature player in the group, a mid-first round pick that produced 845 NHL games and some of the most memorable plays in modern Oilers history. Not all of the QMJHL draft list is strong, Marc Pouliot was also a first-round selection who had significant and plentiful injuries and never reached his potential. That brings us to Xavier Bourgault.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Xavier Bourgault leads strong group of Oilers prospects graduating to pro hockey this fall
- Lowetide: Predicting Kailer Yamamoto’s Oilers goal total in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
BOURGAULT’S SEASON AT 20
Ales Hemsky spent his draft plus one season in junior, then turned pro in time for the 2002-03 season. In his first NHL game, Hemsky was 19 years, one month and 28 days old. On opening night for the NHL this season, Bourgault will be 19 years, 11 months and 21 days. So, he’s a year older turning pro and is unlikely to play 59 NHL games this coming season.
When we say Hemsky averaged 17-39-56 per 82 games over 845 NHL games, we’re looking at the best player in the group by some margin, even factoring in the injuries. It is worth noting that in his first six seasons, Hemsky averaged 18-47-65 per 82 games. Injuries tore through his career numbers. Damn shame.
How many of these Oilers kids played in the AHL age 20?
- Marc Pouliot 65 games, 15-30-45 (.692)
- Jean-Francois Jacques 65 games, 24-40-44 (.677)
- Matthew Lombardi 76 games, 25-21-46 (.605)
- Slava Trukhno 64 games, 14-21-35 (.547)
- Raphael Lavoie 19 games, 5-5-10 (.526)
- Marco Roy 42 games, 8-12-20 (.476)
- Stephane Goulet 36 games, 9-5-14 (.389)
- Phil Cornet 60 games, 7-16-23 (.383)
I’ve written about Bourgault several times over at The Athletic, notably the item featured above and here. I think this could go any of three ways: Bourgault magically makes the team out of camp (30 percent), he posts strong AHL numbers and is considered for recall at some point in the season (60 percent) or he struggles to post .50 points per game in the AHL (10 percent) and doubt enters the room and takes a seat.
PROSPECTS CHANCES OF MAKING THE TEAM
I posted the percentage chances for all of the prospects during the first ‘Riesen to Believe’ but it’s fun to place the prospects in order to see who has the best chance to make it this fall out of camp.
- G Stuart Skinner, 23. 90 percent he makes it and a good chance he has significant impact on Oilers success this year. The fact Holland is trusting a young Oilers goaltender with this role is historically unusual.
- LD Philip Broberg, 21. 90 percent. Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson knowledge of this player should bode well for his future success. I wish the team had a veteran shutdown blue to pair with the rookie. Broberg did look good playing RH side, maybe they run him there with Kulak as partner.
- Dmitri Samorukov, 23. 60 percent, needs waivers and that’s a major factor. He also spiked when Colin Chaulk took over in Bakersfield. The bottom line is you need to see him for 30+ NHL games before trading him, his talent dictates it.
- Dylan Holloway, 20. 40 percent. It would be higher but for two reasons. First, he didn’t really get an NHL audition, chances are Holland will want him to flourish in the AHL before recall. Second, he is currently blocked on the depth chart. That could change before opening night, but until then I have him under 50 percent.
- Vincent Desharnais, 26. 40 percent. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) known for PK work, if the Oilers dress seven men on defense I can see Desharnais being the seventh. Doesn’t need waivers, loses about 10 percent to Samorukov because of his waiver worry.
- Xavier Bourgault, 19. 30 percent. He’s well back enterting camp and that’s fair, but his skill set and position (I have him as a RW) make him intriguing. If the Oilers sign Kessel or Gagner then the 30 percent goes away, but any injury during training camp on RW will increase his chances. He’s an excellent prospect. The only forward prospect clearly ahead of him is Holloway, who is coming off a season riddled by injury.
- Markus Niemelainen, 24. 15 percent. Size and mobility are strong assets and the Oilers need an intimidating hitter. Niemelainen seems like the guy who will head to Bakersfield to wait for recall, but summer predictions are often wrong.
- Tyler Benson, 24. 10 percent. Benson needs to build toward another recall and that could take some time. It’s better for him to play in Bakersfield than sit in Edmonton. He needs to remind management of his skills.
- Noah Philp, 23. 10 percent. He’s a RH center in a pool of lefties, that’s an advantage. He is an older prospect and has played in some big games in college. Also an advantage. If injuries hit RH forwards who check and PK, and Philp plays well, it’s possible he makes the team at some point in the year.
- James Hamblin, 23. 10 percent. Speed merchant who has no fear, Hamblin has some utility as a player.
- Raphael Lavoie, 21. 5 percent. He has an enormous opportunity here and should be 70 percent. I hope he spent the summer moving his feet, because that’s the big issue. He has a terrific shot. Right now, he’s heading to camp with Bourgault, Savoie and possibly Petrov as goal-scoring options. Lavoie has NHL skill, his release is fantastic. However, there’s a fine line between prospect and suspect.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
The Elks lost a game they had a chance to win, and the NFL tour of training camps will continue today 10-2 on TSN1260. We’ll also talk Jays, who had a tough weekend against the Guardians. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter, if anything Oilers happens we’ll have that, too..
NEW for The Athletic:
Oilers question marks as training camp nears
Lowetide: Oilers question marks as training camp nears – The Athletic
It’s a shame to have to pay to read your articles on the Athletic .
I wouldn’t just on principle . I’m sure it’s my loss . But what the heck ?
Complaining about LT who writes an article for free for 365 days a year on his blog that he runs in addition to writing a book + writing for the athletic + doing radio + whatever other mysteries he is working on is very, very strange to me.
I’m not complaining , I’m making a statement. Sorry for the misunderstanding . Yes capitalism is a bitch .
I’m not complaining , I’m making a statement. It’s my choice. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Yes capitalism is a bitch .
Capitalism is a bitch but unfortunately I think it’s going to stick around for a while.
Capitalism is pretty much long gone. The so-called Western democracies are pretty far along the way to being neofeudal technofascist states.
For a dollar per month?
Go ahead, splurge. Do something nice for yourself. You deserve it.
It’s worth just for the Lowetide but there’s just so much more there too.
Yer’ not a real cowboy, are ya’ bill?
No . Do you remember an ex Oiler from way back named Bill Flet . It’s a tribute to him . Cowboy Bill Flet . I don’t think he was a real cowboy either .
Cowboy Bill, I remember that fella.
LT or ADMIN, can you please forward my contact email to Cowboy Bill please. Bill send me an email, I have some information for you.
Thank you
Do you expect free coffee at Tim Horton’s?
I make my own coffee at home .
Yeah but do you pay the few cents of water from the tap or stand outside and wait for the free water to fall from the sky?
Please share how you get your internet service for free.
Something something about home brewed coffee instead of dystopian versions of “cool” sold by hot water and cheap pastry corporations.
zach laing
@zjlaing
A celebration of life for Edmonton Oilers superfan Ben Stelter will be livestreamed this Friday
RNH has been really developing into a fine, Jacques Lemaire style hockey player.
He looks like he has another 10 years in the tank.
Scott Howson was also on Oilers Now today – I’ve always enjoyed listening to him speak and this its a great listen.
Bob did ask about the Oilers potentially moving the AHL team and Scott said there is nothing indicating the org has any interest in doing so.
I’m not surprised, at this point, but disappointed (acknowledging the team is successful in Bakersfield).
If it ain’t broke…
I can see numerous benefits of having the Condors based in Edmonton.
LOL
With respect…
While there are benefits to your viewpoint and no doubt you can provide examples with merit – I’d prefer to stick with Ken Holland as general manager of the Oilers.
Once Connor + Leon are no longer on the team the Oilers will be more or less back to the 90’s/00’s and 10’s.
When that unhappy time arrives either via trade or retirement, there will again be more scope for pushing the envelope a little farther improvements to the team.
As of today, its pretty straightforward: Win Now
It’s much easier to win now when an injury replacement is down the hall instead of in another country.
Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal all have their AHL teams in close proximity.
This also allows team executives to have more direct intel on prospects and for those prospects to access the superior training facilities available at the NHL level.
I have no idea what any of that has to do with moving the AHL franchise in the same city as the NHL team (like the Canucks, Flames, Jets, Leafs, Habs (essentially), and numerous other teams.
Happy to take the time to post some tangible reasons but, given by yours posts over the last number of hours, I don’t think you are looking to have an actual conversation on a subject.
Looks like Maatta will be jumping the heralded Brad Lambert and starting the game as 2C today….
I wonder if the Oilers select him if he made it past the Jets and Tampa.
I don’t understand the comment…..
If the Jets pass on Lambert with the 30th pick as well as the Bolts at 31 do the Oilers target Lambert with the 32nd pick are do they stand pat with Schaefer.
The Jets have done extremely well with their first-round picks throughout the entire Chevaldayoff period. I think they were smart to take Lambert at 30, and I would have liked him at 32.
The safe picks at the end of the first round (like Schaefer) have limited upside. (Lawson Crouse is probably a best-case comp.) Some speculated that Lambert had “draft-itis,” like Aatu Raty, another draft faller. (Raty, taken in the second round, is again looking like the Top-10 pick that he was originally slated to be.)
Or maybe it’s just that I liked Lambert’s Prairie pedigree.
The Jets always have a supply of strong players coming up – then they leave for all kinds of awful reasons and they’re right back where they started.
The Jets have the challenge of playing in the least desirable market from a player perspective, and I think they’ve done very well in standing up to trade requests. They’ve waited a long time on all of them. Kane was sent to Buffalo. Laine was sent to Columbus (featuring John Tortorella). They got several more seasons out of Trouba and then got Pionk and Heinola (IIRC) for him. They haven’t given an inch on Dubois, and now we hear that “he never actually asked for a trade.”
Chevy’s only major blunder was sticking with Paul Maurice way too long, which let the Scheifele/Wheeler problems really fester. (He also got screwed by Byfuglien, which set the Jets back probably a full season.) I think the Jets have done very well with what they’ve been given.
But I do think they’re in trouble now, and Barry Trotz could probably see it.
OK, thanks – I thought you were referring to Maatta and I was confused…..
I’ll guess that they stick with Schaefer. Tyler Wright loves big bodied athletes. Lambert was also dinged for a lack of hockey sense.
Sometimes when a player gets branded no hockey sense it’s the farthest thing from the truth. Some players just don’t interview well or they’re socially awkward and next thing you know they don’t have hockey sense.
Maybe. Or he truly doesn’t process the game well. I haven’t watched him so really can’t give a solid opinion either way. There were scouting services who questioned his hockey sense. There are several articles from June 25-28 available on the internet if you google his scouting report. To summarize, he has great speed and skill combination. Likes to hold on to the puck and make plays. Offensive production is disappointing given his offensive skill set. Not a shooter. Poor in the defensive cycle. Schaefer is nearly the opposite player type: big, physical, drives the puck to the net, shooter, straight line skater (not dynamic).
It’ll be interesting to see who turns out to have the more prominent career.
Woody was on Oilers Now today:
1) Asked about replacing Keith’s leadership – his impact on the group was profound. Not just limited to his play but the things behind the scenes, in the room, how he talked to younger players, how he shared his experiences. He’ll be very much missed by everyone in our locker room. Our team gained alot of experience in the playoff room. His not being there will be helped by the entire group. With that said, Duncan will be around the team still……continue to have conversations with players and work with our people.
2) Bob asked about something official with the team and Keith – Sounds like that is going to happen. For now, they are giving Keith some space after the emotion of the retirement and ceremony. Door is open to be around the team and have an impact in a different. In addition to a Hall of Fame Player he’s a hall of fame player.
3) Lots of great talk about Ben.
4) Asked about Mark Stuart coming on to the staff. Firstly, I enjoy the process of bringing new people in to the org and “on-boarding them”. It makes me a better coach as I get to talk to a lot of really different people from different backgrounds and really learned hockey people with different approaches to the game. I learn alot along the way – about how different orgs approach things, different types of player development situations, etc. What I learned during the process of hiring Mark, the deeper I went with different coaches that wanted the job, I found a profile of the person I wanted to add. If you look at the complexion of the staff, I wanted to add another former NHL hockey player and someone not too far removed from playing at the highest level, some that speaks the language of the current player and can relate to the pressures the current player goes through but not someone immediately retired but someone that has put time in and worked in the profession. Mark has a very good perspective on the game, a first round pick, played in different cities/orgs, honest, hard working, very intelligent.
5) Bob asked about cap compliance and asked if Jay was keeping an eye on additional pieces – “Yup, those conversations are on-going among the management group of which I’m privy too and had good conversations with Ken and Keith and Brad Holland.” Spoke about end of August/early Sept is the time things pick up and there might be some movement around the NHL. Constant conversations about ways to improve the team and Ken Holland does a great job at setting that tone. Ken is a patient man and I know he’s doing his homework.
6) Asked about young d-men – Everyone is excited about the opportunity for these young d-men and the work they’ve put in to put themselves in position to be in that conversation. Different skill-sets. Different ingredients. Where they are in their personal cycle, they might be farther along then some of our forwards are. That’s OK.
7) Asked about the pairings (and Barrie playing best with Kulak) – we’ve talked about the pairings alot. Lots of good options there. Duncan retiring opens up opportunity and playing time. How those play out will be determined in camp. We may have a starting point on something but we must be light on our feet, are using our eyes but also have patience to let things play out.
8) Would you hesitate putting Broberg/Bouch together to keep the other two pairings together? Those conversations are still to be had and worked through as we work through training camp. I know both of those players, seen them in AHL and NHL, Dave has seen them, we are award of their strengths and capabilities are. We are going to work that through in camp and put the players in the best positions for success – not only for them but also team success.
9) In a perfect world will MacDavid/Leon be 1/2C? Yes. On the Ryans, McLeod displayed he is capable of handling more. He showed that. We utilized him in different fashion (4C with shifts on wings, more time on PK). He forced us to give him more as he showed his ability to handle. With the 4 (and Nuge being a very good center), it allows us to move players around to ensure everyone gets enough. People may end up playing out of their natural but they want to play with good players. These centers can play anywhere.
10) Asked abut if nurse and Drai are expected to be fully healthy for camp. Had just had lunch with Nurse, he’s in good spirits. Just came through getting marries. Working with the Roberts group. He’s skating. He’s progressing. I didn’t ask him if he’s 90% or 100% but he feels good heading in to camp. Leon is healing around the same line. Progressing. Both guys are on the ice. I expect both of them fully healthy for training camp.
Thanks for this, tons of great information.
Thought this was quite interesting.
Yup – he then noted that something official likely coming.
What was even more interesting, to me, is that, when Stauff asked him about Holland continuing to build the team this off-season, etc. Woody mentioned that he was in conversations with K. Holland and B. Holland and Duncan………
Holland is always building the team.
This is what sets him apart and miles above the gone but unlamented Lowe+MacT circus sideshow.
What I found interesting was the Duncan Keith was mentioned as being in the conversation with Ken Holland, Brad Holland and Jay Woodcroft.
Very interesting. Always I thought Keith was inserted to mentor everyone.
You think he retired and left over a million dollars on the table for shits and giggles.
What does this have to do with potentially being involved in player procurement conversations?
I read that as “Keith Gretzky” not “Duncan Keith”, but who knows…
Yup. I listened to the interview. He was talking about Keith Gretzky.
Well, that would make more sense – thank you.
Super post.
Super.
Yes, Kane did have McDavid’s and Leon’s backs – Drai still got hurt on a dirty play and those two were still targeted all playoffs long, often illegally.
Did you not just kind of prove my point that noone added to the bottom of this roster is going to change the way anyone plays against the starts.
Yes, I too would like some “harder on the puck” type players in the lineup and but its not in the name of star player protection.
Note that Keith “will be around the org” and it sounds like something official may be coming – he was mentioned as in conversation with Holland and Holland and Woody……
The retribution needs to be swift but not the way it’s being done. An Oiler has to do similar to a star on the other team with a quiet comment to the other teams bench ( when appropriate to the effect that’s for Leon and or for which ever player they targeted.) Going after their goon only plays into giving them an advantage!)
Lots of hungry PTO’s in the tight cap era. How much was Maroon making when he was playing shotgun with Connor or Kane last year. There could be a bargain basement player that surprises on a PTO. If I’m Holland I would invite at least one D and one Forward PTO to camp.
I’m sure there will be a few PTOs at camp and I’m all for it.
I don’t see how this has anything to do with protecting McDavid and Drai, of course.
You don’t think Kane, Maroon or let’s say a Jake Virtanen type bring any deterrence to the opposition. Why do all the greats say that it does. I know this might come as a great surprise to you but I’ll take Gretzky, Yzerman, Connor etc word over yours when it comes to having a McSorley there to keep the weasels like Kadri in check.
I’m not sure how you are equating a player coming to camp on a PTO with Kane or Maroon – I’m thinking any PTO will see nominal time, if any, with 97 or 27 on the ice.
How did Kane keep Mikey Anderson from injuring Drai with a dirty move and then how did he stop the opposition from literally slashing his injured ankle, over and over again – what about the other liberties against McDavid we keep talking about, over and over and over – if those are still happening then what is Kane doing?
Kane has an effect on the ice, absolutely – doesn’t and won’t stop teams from taking their shots at the stars whenever they can.
How do you know have you’ve never seen lightning in a bottle. Regardless 2 can play this game Overchin has missed just over 20 games in the last 10 years since Tom Wilson was drafted. Ask Overvhin what he thinks of crazy Tom and then get back to me that Tom doesn’t deter anyone from pitchforking Overchin.
What does Tom Wilson, a legit top line player, have to do with PTO players?
What does Maroon have to deal with McDavid. What does Chaisson have to do with top 6 minutes PP1 and 22 Goals.
Players get hurt in all kinds of ways but until the Avs targeted and outplayed the Oilers all at the same time(schooled is as good a term as I can think of) neither LAK or the Flames did ought against the Oilers.
Show me a cup champion and 80% + of the time I’ll show you goons. Tampa has Maroon, for example. And Florida hopes their new shiny gumshield chewing addition can help trip and hook them up the playoff success ladder. Boston won the cup by smashing the Sedins around while Vancouver failed because they were all about crying to the refs for penalties every time they dived.
Oilers dynasty was loaded to the back teeth with hard nosed players, and so were the 70s Canadiens who took the title off of the greatest goon squad in history the Broad Street Bullies. Also were the Islanders. Dallas Stars had Derien Hatcher if you recall and they won a cup.
Sure tha Avs jumped the Oilers and without Nurse/Draisaitl able to continue effectively the new to the semifinals Oilers folded. Kane was about to kill one of the Avs right at the end or near to the end of that series and will probably finish the job next season to give the Avs a reminder that they have a serious killer rival heading up the highway to send them back to the Denver Devil Worshipping Airport lol
n terms of the salary cap issue, I wonder if Nurse will need further recuperation for his hip and miss the first 5-10 games of the season. If so, that creates another $500K to ~$1M in space. if Holland runs 12 F’s and 8 D (going 11 and 7 in the games), he might be able to sneak under the cap with some roster tweaks at the end of camp.
1) Nurse missing less than 10 games AND 24 days doesn’t create any additional cap space. In fact, it would add cap space as he’d be on IR (not LTIR) and they’d need to replace him on the roster.
2) If he was LTIR eligible, that is a shot term fix.
3) Woody was asked about Nurse today who is out with the Robert’s crew and expected to be ready to go 100% for camp.
Unfortunately Hemsky was considered “soft” not because he avoided the hard areas but because of all the injuries he suffered from the time he spent in the hard areas which unfairly and incorrectly labeled him “soft”
But his list of injuries was real and spectacular.
I could only imagine what it would be like if he was in his prime right now as his game is very well suited for this era
Didn’t he also had the reputation for taking it easy during practices?
It’s been a long time, but I sort of recall Hemsky was sneaky effective at own zone, in a even more low key way than how RHN does it.
He was able to defend as if he played the center spot even though he was a winger.
Bailed a lot of players out that way.
After more than 500 games in the NHL, Colton Sceviour is headed overseas. The veteran forward has signed a one-year contract with SC Bern of the Swiss National League, ending his time in North America for now.
It was sad to see the injuries hemsky endured being an Oiler player. Everytime regher hit him I wished our gm at the time would have gotten a player that would have protected Ales. At least the NHL is finally moving in the right direction.
My prefect linemate for Hemsky would have been Rick Tocchet. Regehr had 50 pounds on Ales, no wonder he through him around like a rag doll. Players like Tocchet are so rare but it would of been justice to see Tocchet doling out so many rights that Regehr would of been begging for a left.
Lets not forget that he probably spend the summer rehabbing as much as training and working on skill – he had major season ending knee surgery – I have no idea on the timeline and how its going but its likely a factor.
I’ve posted recently about Hamblin as a dark-horse for a call-up at some point. He’s just “one of those guys” that coaches love and trust and Woody indeed did at the AHL level.
He’s quick and tenacious – similar to Yamamoto in that regard.
While I don’t see him as a center option at the NHL, he played all 3 forward positions for Woody, he played up and down the lineup, he played on all special teams, etc., etc., etc.
If he’s in the lineup, things are probably not “going great” but I don’t put it out of the realm of reasonableness.
Waiver is indeed a factor and, for me, again, taking aside injury, I have him closer to 80%.
Even taking away waivers as a risk, for me, he likely earns that 7D spot on merit.
Lets not forget that he was looking like he had a real shot at the team last camp, prior to yet another injury.
He had a good season last year once he came back (and its tough to come back with no camp and mid-season) and, as you state, VERY good down the stretch – for me the team’s top d-man by far.
I think he’s ahead of Niemelainen on the depth chart due to a better and more varied skill set but Niemo is definitely in the conversation for the coaches and the GM>
Holland did say straight up, “he’d have to play himself off the team” so, barring injury or a catastrophic camp, I see him on the team.
Given Barrie, Ceci, Bouchard, I would think Broberg starts on the left side but, yes, if there is an injury on the right side, I could see him moving over (or Kulak himself) given Vinny Deharnais is currently 4th on the right shot D depth chart.
I would think the Oilers would play Koekkoek on the right side before Desharnais.
Assuming he is healthy of course.
I think this is 100% locked subject to injury, no?
Pickard is a solid 3G but he really is that, an organizational 3.
Is there any realistic chance Skinner sees waivers?
Not to mention Holland has said outright that Skinner is the 2G.
I think this is pretty much bang on.
Holland isn’t done assembling the opening night healthy roster yet. Going with 20 players on the roster and up against the cap is not practical and even going with 21, which isn’t ideal, requires a current player with real cap out (presuming McLeod in the $1MM range, give or take).
There are also onlyl 3 NHL right wingers in Jesse, Kailer and Derek Ryan. I know that Hyman has, and can, play the right side but I think the team is best if he’s on the left side.
I guess there is spot for Bourgault on the right side but I think Holland is going to fill with experience (whether its a Kessel or a Gagner or a Rodrigues or even a Milano and Hyman does shift over). Holland will assuradly go in to camp planning on assigning Bourgault to the AHL – he waxed poetic about AHL development just last week (or the week before). Outside chance of breaking camp with the team and injuries could indeed up these chances.
——————-
We hear, and I post, often about the huge jump between the CHL/NCAA and the AHL and how first year pros, in particular 20 years olds (generally out of major junior) will need a real adjustment period and will show some struggles in that first season – we see it play out every year from Maksimov to Lavoie, etc., etc. I think that the likes of Tulio and Savoie will be in that group.
I think the Bourgault is in another tier and, of course, there will be adjustment to being a pro, on and off the ice (with the training and the life and commitment, etc.) and playing against “men”, big and strong and playing for their livelihood, and the skill and speed. With that said, I think that he will be deployed in the top 6 and the PP and I think his skill and style of play will show well at the AHL level.
Yup, there will be some ups and downs, consistency will likely be an issue and the GRIND of the pro schedule in North America. I’m “expecting” apx 0.75 P/G and, yes, 100% there is a real chance of some NHL time – maybe even more than a cup of coffee. I can see this player on the 3rd line with some real skill Foegele/Holloway on the left and McLeod/Nuge in the middle – that could be a great place for him to play late in his rookie season. He could also very well compliment and McDavid or Drai line potentially – that may be more reasonable in the 2023/24 season but we don’t know.
I see two places of in-season upgrade at this point:
1) a depth, or even top 4, d-man – we know Holland will be shopping for a d-man.
2) one more top 6 winger to solidify and create more depth on the 3rd line.
The team will be in LTIR with no cap space and in another, money in/money out scenario.
It would be amazing if Bourgault could be that in-season winger acquisition on his ELC – miles to go before February but I can see this scenario.
I was expecting an OP post reminding us that Holloway should be higher because of the cap implications. 😉
For cap structuring, yes, Holloway needs to be on the opening roster submission (which is cap compliant) but can be assigned after if Holland and Woodcroft so choose.
I can see him helping the team right from the start in October but its tough to really project until we see how Holland plans to deal with the need to clear a few million.
With all this talk of Gagner lately i did a deep dive.
Leavins, Stauffer, and lowetide have all mentioned him and it got me playing on capfriendly.
The oilers can get compliant without waiving samorukov (waiving a player with his skillset and potential is a massive faux pas in my pov)
To me gagner and derek ryan are very similar players, both incredibly smart, slighlty undersized but skilled, and hard working. One thing i will note is that Gagner is reported to be a strong voice in the locker room which could help replace what was lost with mike smith being ltiretired. I wanted to compare the on ice product both 5v5 and on the PK to see how similar these players really are.
In comparing ryan to gagner 5v5 see below.
Ryan- 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points
Gagner- 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points
Ryan- Shooting percentage 14.47% (career 12%) (this is likely to regress this szn)
Gagner- Shooting Percentage 7.92% (career 9.3%) (this is likely to improve or stay the same this szn)
Ryan- 60% in faceoff dot
Gagner- 51% in the faceoff dot
Ryan is the better faceoff man, Gagner is likely the better locker room guy, but having Gagner instead of Ryan and counting on Foegele to have a bounce back year to make up the difference is a very strong bet.
Note that Gagner played more PK last yr and had slightly better results
Gagner. 2.21 min/gp
Ryan. 1.44 min/gp
Gagner. 9.73 goals against/60 mins on pk
Ryan. 10.51 goals against/60 mins on pk
By doing this research i can surmise than Gagner can be more helpful on the PK, however Ryan would be better in the faceoff dot. The on ice product is unlikely to change much if they replace Ryan with Gagner.
Gagner has a worse XGF, HDCF, and CF % however his most common linemates were Joe Veleno and Givani smith, neither of which are scoring change sauvants.
I would suggest the following.
1.Sign mcleod to a 945k contract.
2.Sign gagner to a 750k contract.
3.Waive Derek Ryan to the minors or trade him for future considerations or a league min contract.
4.Waive Koekkoek to the minors.
5.Bring up either Benson or Malone.
You could then run these lines.
Kane-Mcdavid-Yammo
Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Janmark-Nuge-Foegele
4th line of either. Malone-Mcleod-Gagner or Benson-Mcleod-Gagner
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Samorukov
Campbell
Skinner.
Leaves you with about 10k or so of cap.
(note that foegele played a LOT of rw in carolina with staal)
Those PK numbers are both wretched.
which is why you use Nuge (4.71 ga/60) Mcleod (5.23 ga/60) Hyman (5.27ga/60) Yammo (6.34ga/60) as your primary penalty killers.
Which is why (different version) you don’t put your trust in < 150 min sample sizes.
This was Gagner’s 1st real PK season (only other times he was over 1 min/game was 12-13 with the Oilers [1:35/game] and the previous season with Detroit [1:18/game in 41 games]).
Gagner’s GA/60 and xGA/60:
20-21 2.25 6.00 (53 min)
21-22 9.73 8.41
Ryan has been a regular PKer for the past 4 seasons (1:44/game or more each year).
Ryan’s GA/60 and xGA/60:
18-19 7.34 6.93
19-20 5.76 6.14
20-21 5.57 5.78
21-22 10.71 7.36
The 10.71 for Ryan is a clear outlier vs his underlying numbers and vs his own past.
As with their even strength scoring (but even more so), I think using GA/60 for a single season to project PK performance is unwise.
5v5 scoring btw:
21-22
Gagner 8-13-21
Ryan 10-11-21
Past 4 seasons:
Gagner 18-32-50
Ryan 30-51-81
(ie- 21-22 was Gagner’s best recent season, but the standard recent season for Ryan).
I would hope signing Samwise would mean Malone is never to see the NHL again.
I would think both of Derek Ryan & Sam Gagner would be strong voices in the locker room.
Nice to hear Sammy works on the PK , sounds like he’s reinvented himself in the Derek Ryan mold .
Thank you for the work.
Are you sure that 21 player roster is cap compliant?
Are you including the $896K of bonus overages?
I think we need to pump the brakes on all this “sign Sam Gagner” talk.
I’ve seen far more of him in Oilers silks than I can bare as it is. . .
I like the comparison between Hemsky & Bourgault . If Bourgault can step in and perform as well as Hemmer maybe we could all stop fussing over Puljujarvi and be done with him once and for all .
“If Bourgault can step in and perform as well as Hemmer maybe we could all stop fussing over Wallstedt* and be done with him once and for all.”
you mean the goalie who was a backup in the SHL last season? that wallstedt?
I would have to say that was very astute of the Oil to pick Bourgault over Wallstedt . And honestly IMO they would be better off without Poolparty .
But that’s just me… I guess .
The guy who played 40% of the games for the #2 team in the SHL? At age 19?
The guy who improved his save percentage by 10 points over his draft year, to .917? Good for fourth overall in the SHL?
The guy who put up a .946 save percentage in 4 games in the 2020 and 2021 WJCs?
You mean that guy?
You really don’t appreciate the puck heading in the right direction, to each their own.
My question for you is what do you have against JP? Given the way he was handled both by the team and bad advice from his agent I would suggest that he has been value as an Oiler. Assuming he continues his progression it is reasonable to assume his will be a value contract. He is a big smooth skating RW that makes the lines he plays on better! The mantra on site is get good players, keep good players! Oh did I mention he is also defensively very sound.
You can make all the excuses you want when it comes to Jesse Puljujarvi . Just keep drinking the Kool-Aid .
It’s funny to me , his skating is awkward and more often then not gets in the way offensively . Sometimes he scores . But not often enough with the high quality players the Oilers have . His skill set is one of a bottom six forward at the NHL level . He certainly isn’t signed to a value contract and never will be , even if he has any say in it . He’s a square peg trying to fit in a round hole . I know most of you disagree . But that’s my story and I’m sticking to it . LOL .
JP in the old time NHL would be a great player to have on the team but in the salary cap era with agents beating the gong every time another mediocre player gets a stupid contract = increasing the cost of THEIR player its like he’s eventually going to price himself off of the Oilers, which would be a shame.
When pretty much every line combination gets, not just more shots and shot attempts, but more of the goal share, with Jesse than without, there shouldn’t be a need for excuses and any kool-aid.
Kane/McDavid/Jesse were 10-1 goals this past season – that’s much better than either Yamo or Hyman did with McDavid/Kane.
Now, much of that is due to lowering goals against but, guess what, that is something that both McDavid and Drai benefit from and Jesse is proving to be effective in that area.
Jesse is effective as 2-way player, he puts himself on the “right side of pucks”, he is positionally sound in the offensive zone (vis-a-vis the puck going the other way), he is great in puck retrieval (which keeps the puck in the offensive zone, etc.) – he helps the line even when his confidence is low and he’s having trouble with the puck on his stick.
His “lack of puck skills” is real but also over-rated.
I would suggest that Connor & Leon have improved their defensive games , not that Puljujarvi has been the primary reason . Puljujarvi may also be the beneficiary of Connor & Leon’s improved defensive play , along with the rest of the team .
Sure Jesse is effective as a 2 way player, he puts himself on the “right side of the puck , plus all the rest of it , as you say . But so do most third liners who suffer from lack of confidence when the puck is on their sticks , that’s because they have to and , oh yeah , third liners usually lack puck skills , that’s why they are third liners . Doesn’t Woodie think Jesse is more effective as a third liner and wants to deploy him as such ?
You can sugar coat it all you want . But realistically , Jesse Puljujarvi is just another third liner that fancies himself as a top six player .
I would suggest that you are being willfully blind to what is happening on the ice and what the numbers are telling us.
Yes, absolutely, both McDavid and Drai have improved their defensive games but this doesn’t explain them getting scored on at lower rates with Jesse than without him (and the same being essentially the case for every other forward).
Goals against go in at a lower rate against pretty much all forwards when playing with Jesse.
Yes, Jesse struggled offensively for large parts of the year. So did Yamamoto who received similar elite center minutes. Just like Kailer, Jesse also produced very well for parts of the year, even better actually. There is nothing that has Yamamoto as any higher level of a player than Jesse but, yet, your focus is on your target.
Meh, a puck goes in off Jesse’s hip and then he bangs home a rebound and, boom, full 100% confidence. It comes back just like that
It’s my opinion. You don’t have agree with me . I could care less .
One is based on objective facts/information (and subjective analysis) – the other is willfully blind of the same seemingly because it doesn’t fit a narrative.
That’s fine, you don’t have to care.
I’m here to discuss opinions (and other matters) related to hockey so happy to have a mature conversation on the player if you ever have the appetite…..
Have you ever thought outside the box ? Or is it too frightening for you to consider?
Are you implying that your position on Jesse Puljujarvi is “thinking outside the box”?
The real question about JP if his defence is as good as touted on the interweb, is why his coaches don’t trust him in defensive situations?
Why is a great defensive forward with a limited ability to score at a top six level getting the lion’s share of the offensive zone starts?
How much is great defence and how much is sheltering?
If the guy tilts the ice, why don’t coaches recognize this and throw him over the boards every time there is a defensive zone draw?
There is a disconnect between coaching and stats. Is one side right and the other wrong, or does the truth lie somewhere in the middle?
I mean, Pat Maroon had similar numbers for the Oilers in 16/17.
Of course most would disagree because much of that is exaggerated such as “more often than not gets in the way offensively” – I believe what you mean is “occasionally”.
He produces just as much as Yamamoto with the top players – do you make similar statements about Yamo’s production with top players.
Do you really opine that he was note a value contract last season at less than $1.2MM on the cap?
Well it’s interesting how the top players prefer Yamamoto as a line mate and that says something . Doesn’t it ? Yes I do opine , because he isn’t a value contract , $3m is too much for a bottom six forward . One way to become cap compliant , and I’ve said this before , would be to trade both of Puljujarvi & Yamamoto for as many picks they can get , then sign as many UFA’s as they can to replace them and more . Take advantage of the buyers market we are seeing with the remaining free agents .
So given all the evidence that JP makes the the team better you want him gone because he doesn’t fit your image of what you believe should be a top six winger. Tad shallow in my opinion and you have the gall to say that all that believe in JP and whose opinions are backed by the stats relative to same are drinking the cool aid. Well Cowboy I think you may have fallen off your horse and landed on your head a few too many times!
That’s what you say .
Bourgault is 3 pounds heavier at 180 and both are 6 foot. I wonder if the kid is filled out and at his ideal weight.
Yes , he & Hemmer are comparable. I don’t know positively. But Bourgault might be more of a 200 ft. player than Hemsky was . I guess we just need to wait and see.
I don’t think it’s as divergent as years ago but it’s tough to compare offensive numbers from the Q to the other two CHL leagues. Was Lavoie’s goals in Junior overstated due to league or is he simply a second round pick going through the normal ups and downs of early pro development? Do we “trust” Bourgault’s very impressive numbers? They are top of league.
Actually I think it’s more divergent than in weaker years. Three straight Mem Cups for the Q. Six of the last 10. Meanwhile the WHL has won 1 of the last 12. You are right to be concerned that Dylan Cozens’ stats are propped up by playing in a weak league.
If you imagine the ideal winger for mcdavid there is a certain profile. Over 6 feet tall, physical, finds a way to the soft areas, has a wicked release. Evander kane is the poster boy for this, draisaitl is another. But looking back over the last few years it seems mcdavid helps big wingers who are physical outperform expectations. (Kassian, Maroon, Chiasson, etc)
For that reason alone Raf Lavoie is a very intriguing player to me. Looking at his bio without watching the player you would think that they drafted the ideal mcdavid winger.
6 ft 4. 210 lbs. wicked release. prolific scorer throughout his career.
When you watch the player he has offensive flashes that take you out of your seat and you can envision him in the top 9 of an NHL club. What stands out to me is that without the puck he struggles mightily. (somewhat similar to kassian in this regard) He seems to lack the desire to play defense and board battles are not a strong suit as it almost seems he is not willing to put in the hard work for the less flashy parts of the game.
If he can commit to winning board battles and back checking he has a heck of a career ahead of him, likely in a prominent role.
The great news is that he has an NHL caliber shot and offensive skills, he just needs to find the willingness to commit to the other “less fun” parts of the game. This seems like more of a mental block than anything and perhaps it will come with maturity.
He is a smart young man, surely he can see the glaring need of skilled rw players on the big club. Whether he was to end up with Mcd, Leon, or the Nuge he has the opportunity to play with incredibly skilled playmakers. Lets hope for his sake and the teams that he can become what we hope he can be!
I imagine ideal wingers for McDavid to be Gretzky and Kurri in their primes.
as far as current NHL players who have had success with mcdavid the profil is large physical wingers.
I would argue that hockey IQ would top the physical aspect and the the physical aspect is less important now given Evander playing the left side.
You can change the dog in a fight but it is nearly impossible to change the fight in a dog!
This is all true and its well written and accurate.
I would note that both of his main areas of concern go date back to his junior days:
1) poor positional play without the puck, poor battle for the puck, poor decision making without the puck, etc.
2) inconsistency of performance – both within games and from game to game.
These have both been noted issues for years and, at least for me, I didn’t see any noted improvement in his full AHL season this past year.
As far as “inconsistency” goes – even back in junior, he would have games where he was fairly non-existent but then would make a couple of high end offensive moves (or find some space for that shot) but he often didn’t effect the game from shift to shift.
He would also go on heaters where he would pile up 8G and 18P on 8 games which is kind of what happened in the AHL this past season – the majority of his production was in a massive 2-3 week heater).
LT talks about him needing to “move his legs” and that probably defines his issue with 1 above and the play away from the puck.
I’m not sure if there is a commitment or effort issue here but I would note that the coaches in the AHL are almost without exception glowing about the players and the commitment and I think I noticed a change in their tone when speaking about Lavoie later in the season – a tinge of disappointment in effort level. That may not be true but its what I thought and I listen to the coach’s pre-game (and post, if available) down there.
…”and doubt enters the room and takes a seat.” LT painting pictures with his words…gold
LT is our rock star!👍
Ales Hemsky, completely maligned by the press in Edmonton during his career. All the silly (I would use stronger language but most know what I am thinking) stories about him being lazy, not committed (first off the ice after practice), etc.. Hemsky was one of the toughest players to ever wear an Oiler jersey and one of my favorite players in Oiler history. I own his rookie season game worn away jersey and it is my pride and joy.
He was fantastic. If half of those 845 games were at home, that’s 423 times Edmontonians (and people who live outside Edmonton) hopped in their vehicles and drove through -40 to watch a team that had a good chance to lose. Hemsky was the main reason to go.
Very well said, and I couldn’t agree more.
That’s well put . You aren’t so mean . You might have to change your name to niceasice11 .
Like I tell Americans down here, Canadians are very nice people, until you put a hockey stick in their hands!
Nice is sometimes mistaken for weak to that person’s surprise and regret!
Keep your stick on the ice .
Ever watch Messier play!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEgp-URw070
Very well put, Hemsky’s courage and tenacity is understated and underrated in many cases. I remember watching him charge into the offensive zone relentlessly and often with minimum help or any reasonable outlet available to give him relief from a hard check and get crushed once again by Robyn Regehr and then a couple shifts later he’s back in there against Regehr and not letting up. He had no quit in him. Those matchups against Regehr had to be responsible for taking at least a couple games out of those shoulders of his..
Agreed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6RtLZCznFQ
If they had closed the deal, the goal Hemsky scores at 16:28 of the video would etched in many memories.
I’ve seen a picture of it somewhere. Really need to get one. The keystone BS at the end of the game has meant it is largely forgotten.
Thank you for the video. That was fun to watch.
… I’ll add my most memorable play from Hemsky
The Stefan empty net:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhTs_O0atdI
And then following that goal a disallowed goal due to an atrocious reffing call. Right, this is the game where the ref said Horcoff played the puck with his hand?
Hemsky’s sublime skill, speed, imagination and tenacity were a joy to watch. On a better offensive team he would have racked up more points.